• US Holiday Monday made for thin market conditions.
• Investors are now picking 4 straight rate cuts at the next 4 Federal Reserve meets.
• The ECB say rate cuts are over, siting stable inflation and the EU-US trade deal.
• NZ Terms of Trade for the second quarter 2025 has risen 4.1% after 1.9% expected.
• The price of gold has surged past 3,450 an ounce. It may challenge the all-time high of 3,500 amid trade war uncertainty.
• The Japanese Yen (JPY) has been the strongest currency in August with the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) the worst performer on the main board.
The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) made a solid start to the week against the US Dollar (USD) stretching out to 0.5900 levels. We need to see a break above the 0.5920 mark to gauge further upside momentum which is looking unlikely at this point. No NZD data prints this week on the economic calendar; all eyes will be on US Non-Farm Payrolls Friday with a pullback to job numbers and a small rise to unemployment expected. Technically we see lower highs followed by lower lows from early July representing a further move lower off 0.5900 areas.
Current Level: 0.5902
Support: 0.5815
Resistance: 0.5975
Last week's range: 0.5818- 0.5905
The current interbank midrate is: NZDUSD 0.5845
The interbank range this week has been: NZDUSD 0.5832- 0.5913
The Australian Dollar (AUD) continues to dominate the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) with price pivoting around the 0.9000 (1.1100) area over the past few days. Diverging central banks have seen the Aussie more attractive of late with the RBA plan not to cut as aggressively as the RBNZ towards the end of 2025. Upcoming Australian GDP q/q data tomorrow should bring about further volatility with markets picking a rise to second quarter numbers of 0.5%. A daily close below 0.8975 (1.1140) may signal further NZD downside.
Current Level: 0.9006
Support: 0.8975
Resistance: 0.9080
Last week's range: 0.8991- 0.9062
The current interbank midrate is: NZDAUD 0.8972 AUDNZD 1.1142
The interbank range this week has been: NZDAUD 0.8962- 0.9033 AUDNZD 1.1070- 1.1158
Current Level: 1.1092
Support: 1.1012
Resistance: 1.1140
Last week's range: 1.1035- 1.1122
The New Zealand Dollar NZD) closed the week positively recovering off the 0.4330 (2.3090) level to post 0.4370 (2.2875) going into the weekend against the British Pound (GBP) With a couple of cuts on the radar from the Reserve Bank of New Zealand most likely this year this could keep the kiwi capped below 0.4395 (2.2760) for a while. The likelihood of a Bank of England (BoE) rate cut at their November meeting is mounting. Markets have already priced in a cut at the September meeting but with headline inflation set to reach 4% the central bank may have no choice.
Current Level: 0.4359
Support: 0.4330
Resistance: 0.4400
Last week's range: 0.4332- 0.4378
The current interbank midrate is: NZDGBP 0.4349 GBPNZD 2.2993
The interbank range this week has been: NZDGBP 0.4343- 0.4386 GBPNZD 2.2797- 2.3023
Current Level: 2.2941
Support: 2.2750
Resistance: 2.3100
Last week's range: 2.2837- 2.3084
The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) kicked back from 0.4995 (2.0030) last week reaching 0.5055 (1.9780) against the Euro. It’s worth noting 0.4995 (2.0030) is the January 2010 low going back over 15 years. In the only economic news of late- Eurozone manufacturing expanded for the first time since August 2022. The Purchasing Managers Index rose to over a 3 year high to 50.7 in July much higher than estimates of 50.5. Lagarde speaks tomorrow.
Current Level: 0.5042
Support: 0.5000
Resistance: 0.5085
Last week's range: 0.5003- 0.5055
Current Level: 1.9833
Support: 1.9660
Resistance: 2.000
Last week's range: 1.9781- 1.9986
We have a head and shoulder pattern forming on the Australian Dollar (AUD) ,US Dollar (USD) chart suggesting price may retest the recent high at 0.6625, currently trading at 0.6550 early Tuesday. Australian GDP prints Wednesday and should reflect a rise in second quarter growth around 0.5% after a disappointing 0.2% in the first quarter. Later in the week is US Non-Farm Payrolls with a slump to jobs data picked, which could push the Federal Reserve to cut 50 points before year end thus weighing on the greenback.
Current Level: 0.6550
Support: 0.6400
Resistance: 0.6600
Last week's range: 0.6461- 0.6547
The current interbank midrate is: AUDUSD 0.6515
The interbank range this week has been: AUDUSD 0.6482- 0.6559
The Australian Dollar (AUD) extended gains against the British Pound (GBP) pushing into Tuesday to 0.4845 (2.0650). A breakthrough to 0.4850 (2.0610) may signal further upside moves for the AUD and a potential run up to 0.4900 (2.0400) the March 2025 high in the cross. Australian GDP q/q prints tomorrow and could come in around 0.5% up from first quarter 0.2% putting pressure on the AUD.
Current Level: 0.4838
Support: 0.4760
Resistance: 0.4890
Last week's range: 0.4797- 0.4856
The current interbank midrate is: AUDGBP 0.4848 GBPAUD 2.0627
The interbank range this week has been: AUDGBP 0.4842- 0.4881 GBPAUD 2.0485- 2.0651
Current Level: 2.0669
Support: 2.0450
Resistance: 2.1000
Last week's range: 2.0590- 2.0845
The Australian Dollar (AUD), Euro (EUR) seems to have consolidated around 0.5600 (1.7860) levels, around highs of 3-4 week’s back and may look to reverse momentum towards 0.5570 (1.7950). Dips in the EUR looks to be well supported of late especially with decent manufacturing data printing in August at 50.7 from 49.8 in July. On the flipside a daily close of 0.5605 (1.7840) may signal further AUD upside.
Current Level: 0.5594
Support: 0.5525
Resistance: 0.5650
Last week's range: 0.5534- 0.5611
Current Level: 1.7876
Support: 1.7700
Resistance: 1.8100
Last week's range: 1.7822- 1.8069
