The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) continues to push higher off the weekly open reaching 0.5700 early Friday against a sheepish US Dollar (USD). A less hawkish Fed has given the kiwi room to move over the past few days together with improved risk sentiment. US Non-Farm Payrolls came in soft with 57,000 new jobs in June after expectations of 114,000- halving the number. With the labour market cooling this may indicate inflationary pressures could be easing. On the calendar next week is RBNZ cash rate announcement, currently around a 50/50 chance for hiking to 2.50%
The current interbank midrate is: NZDUSD 0.5693
The interbank range this week has been: NZDUSD 0.5631- 0.5716
As we approach next week’s RBNZ cash rate announcement the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) has picked up bids over the week to reverse two weeks of losses to post 0.8245 (1.2130) this morning. This is around 1 cent higher off last Monday prices. We view a 50/50 chance the RBNZ will raise rates at next week’s meeting to 2.50%. Most banks are predicting the central bank will start rising from September, we also agree with this approach. Consumers aren’t ready for it, with the timing of a rise next week seen as a kick in the teeth for many. The RBNZ may just wait until Q2 inflation is released on 20th July to make a call for September.
The current interbank midrate is: NZDAUD 0.8227 AUDNZD 1.2144
The interbank range this week has been: NZDAUD 0.8175- 0.8244 AUDNZD 1.2130- 1.2231
The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) trades just below the weekly open into Friday at 0.4270 (2.3425) against the British Pound (GBP) reversing off 0.4260 (2.3490) gaining key bids as the kiwi backs away from long term lows. The GBP remains reasonably well supported as investors balance a resilient inflation outlook with a cautious geopolitical scene. Governor Bailey continues his wait and see approach to figure out how the energy crisis will affect the economy. All eyes are now on next week’s RBNZ cash rate.
The current interbank midrate is: NZDGBP 0.4265 GBPNZD 2.3446
The interbank range this week has been: NZDGBP 0.4257- 0.4289 GBPNZD 2.3314- 2.3490
The Australian Dollar (AUD) moved higher midweek against the US Dollar (USD) reaching 0.6940 in early Friday sessions, extending above both the 100 and 200 day moving averages following a less hawkish Fed. Around 0.6880 this could be the foundation of a long-term base and a bullish structural shift. US Non-Farm Payroll’s printed softer than expected with just 57,000 new jobs in June (consensus 113,000) dragging down the greenback.
The current interbank midrate is: AUDUSD 0.6918
The interbank range this week has been: AUDUSD 0.6864- 0.6943
The British Pound (GBP) extended its bull run higher against the Australian Dollar (AUD) posting 1.9360 (0.5165) yesterday a fresh March high. A daily close below 0.5160 (1.9370) may signal further downside moves for the Aussie as it carves out broader big picture momentum. UK risks are still tilted towards inflation rather than growth; this leads to holding interest rates higher for longer for the Bank of England (BoE). No data on the economic docket next week.
The current interbank midrate is: AUDGBP 0.5181 GBPAUD 1.9301
The interbank range this week has been: AUDGBP GBPAUD
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