• New Zealand Dollar tracks lower.
• New Zealand Consumer Confidence edged lower to 97.6 from 98.0 as Oil and inflation expectations weighs.
• A tanker in the Strait of Hormuz has been struck by an unknown projectile yesterday. Crew are safe but wider environmental impacts could be an issue. The event is likely to add geopolitical risks to the region and the cost of crude.
• Fed’s Schmid: Rising long term rates are starting to strain housing and commercial lending. House prices are starting to dip.
• US ISM Manufacturing 54.5 vs 55.0 expected.
• The RBA raises interest rates from 4.35% to 4.60% the highest in 11 years with stubborn inflation keeping upside risks in focus.
• US final GDP q/q 2.2% vs 1.5% forecast with consumer spending and investment the biggest contributors.
• The strongest G10 board currency this week has been the British Pound (GBP) while the weakest has been the Euro (EUR).
The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) extended declines through 0.5620 overnight against the US Dollar (USD) posting 0.5600 the November 2025 low. As we said earlier the next point of concern for the kiwi is the support level at 0.5570, a continuation past here and there is thin air making for a slide lower. Attention now turns to tonight’s Non-Farm Payrolls with expectations of a soft number for September and a rise to unemployment. This could ease rises to US treasury yields and turn the NZD north.
The current interbank midrate is: NZDUSD 0.5600
The interbank range this week has been: NZDUSD 0.5598- 0.5686
The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) performed well to reach 0.8120 (1.2315) yesterday against the Australian Dollar (AUD) but has since given back gains to 0.8078 (1.2380) in morning trade. The Aussie finally seeing rewards for the RBA hiking interest rates on Tuesday to 4.60%. Australian CPI y/y printed at 4.0% after 4.1% was expected in August- well up on July’s 3.5% defying the recent run of hikes by the RBA. With fuel costs surging amid price pressures jumping 15.0% and the unwinding of govt tax relief this pushes CPI well above the 2-3% target band. Chances of a hike at the RBA meeting November 3rd has risen.
The current interbank midrate is: NZDAUD 0.8082 AUDNZD 1.2363
The interbank range this week has been: NZDAUD 0.8041- 0.8120 AUDNZD 1.2315- 1.2435
As we expected the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) retested the support low at 0.4250 (2.3530) against the British Pound (GBP) earlier today. The Pound stretching its legs with expectations building of a hike on the November 6 BoE meeting. The cross has no tier one data publishing over the next week so moves could be driven by “risk” sentiment as we head into October. Multiyear Lows around 0.4130 (2.4200) are coming into view, a worry for the kiwi heading into the xmas buying period for Importers.
The current interbank midrate is: NZDGBP 0.4242 GBPNZD 2.3573
The interbank range this week has been: NZDGBP 0.4234- .4284 GBPNZD 2.3342- 2.3616
The Australian Dollar (AUD) still can’t catch a bid post the RBA decision earlier in the week falling to 0.6930 this morning against the US Dollar (USD). The RBA raised the cash rate from 4.35% to 4.60% Tuesday the highest since 2011 – you would think this should have supported the Aussie off the back of the hike instead the currency has slipped below key 0.7000. At the same, time the greenback is being supported by lifting treasury yields. US Non-Farm Payroll prints tonight for September and will be interesting with the cross trading at July lows.
The current interbank midrate is: AUDUSD 0.6929
The interbank range this week has been: AUDUSD 0.6902- 0.7038
The English Pound (GBP) has been exceptionally well supported over the week against the Australian Dollar (AUD) reaching lofty heights of 1.9100 (0.5235) before settling around 0.5250 (1.9050) this morning reversing 5 weeks of performance by the AUD. A softer Australian CPI read at 4.0% instead of 4.1% predicted hasn’t helped with AUD momentum together with the unwinding of govt tax relief.
The current interbank midrate is: AUDGBP 0.5247 GBPAUD 1.9058
The interbank range this week has been: AUDGBP 0.5231- 0.5308 GBPAUD 1.8838- 1.9114
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