• US Holiday action turns markets cautious.
• Trump’s latest Tariff send shocks through markets with the President wanting to impose 10% tariffs on European countries starting Feb 1- this may continue to undermine the US Dollar.
• Canadian CPI 2.4% y/y vs 2.2% expected.
• China fourth quarter GDP hits a 3 year low of 4.5% y/y citing weak domestic demand.
• NZ PMI December 2025 51.5 breaking a 21 month of contractions, prior 47.2 a sign that domestic momentum is rebuilding.
• The Australian Dollar (AUD) has been the strongest currency over the last 24 hours with the British Pound (GBP) the worst performing on the main board.
It’s a busy calendar of data this week in the New Zealand Dollar (NZD), US Dollar (USD) pair which should give us plenty of shifts off 0.5780 this morning. The kiwi extended its run higher Monday off 0.5750 in thin markets during the US holiday break. NZ fourth quarter CPI prints Friday, expected to rise by 0.4% and remain at 3.0% y/y. A softer outcome won’t change the RBNZ outlook. Technically- a close above 0.5800 resistance may signal further NZD upside.
Current Level: 0.5790
Support: 0.5700
Resistance: 0.5840
Last week's range: 0.5724 - 0.5781
The “Trump’ rally in markets was led by commodities with US indices clocking rises over 1% overnight. The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) posted a fresh September 18, 2025, high of 0.5905 early morning as the kiwi nudged 0.75% during the NY session. US Final GDP came in at 4.4% for the December quarter up from the expected 4.3% the strongest quarter of growth since September 2023 but it was the geopolitical news which moved markets, the kiwi staying resilient.
The current interbank midrate is: NZDUSD 0.5926
The interbank range this week has been: NZDUSD 0.5737- 0.5926
The New Zealand Dollar is slightly down off the open at 0.8645 (1.1570) against the Australian Dollar (AUD) with bias we think to continue mildly bearish as we head into the week. As we keep harping on- central bank divergence is keeping the NZD soft with a hawkish RBA and widening interest rate differentials. We eye Australian jobs data Thursday which should show a small rise to the unemployment rate before NZ CPI is released Friday morning. If we get something lower than 0.4% q/q we may see the kiwi push higher.
Current Level: 0.8626
Support: 0.8550
Resistance: 0.8760
Last week's range: 0.8563 - 0.8619
The Australian Dollar (AUD) recovered losses mid-week from 0.8680 (1.1523) reversing to 0.8605 (1.1620) late Thursday. Early Friday we see 0.8635 (1.1580) on the chart with the NZD gaining bids. Australian Unemployment released at 4.1% after markets were expecting 4.4%, well down on forecasts raising the AUD and strengthening arguments of tighter monetary policy dampening near-term rate cuts. Meanwhile the NZD/AUD is still tracking in a bear channel from the high at 0.9320 (1.0730) with the kiwi needing a breach above 0.8770 to break the downside bias.
The current interbank midrate is: NZDAUD 0.8657 AUDNZD 1.1533
The interbank range this week has been: NZDAUD 0.8602- 0.8677 AUDNZD 1.1524- 1.1624
Current Level: 1.1585
Support: 1.1414
Resistance: 1.1700
Last week's range: 1.1602 - 1.1677
Prices in the New Zealand Dollar (NZD), British Pound (GBP) extended off the weekly close at 0.4300 (2.3250) to reach 0.4315 (2.3170) in early morning trade. Pushing above the 50-day moving average we now favour a retest of the 0.4330 (2.31) zone. This week we await both UK and NZ CPI data with both expected to publish at 3.3% y/y and 3.0% y/y respectively. With UK CPI still above the 2.0% target, anything above 3.3% will reinforce BoE rate cuts.
Current Level: 0.4316
Support: 0.4270
Resistance: 0.4330
Last week's range: 0.4266 - 0.4304
The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) extended its moves higher against the British Pound (GBP) Thursday reaching a new high of 0.4370 (2.2770) the highest level since September last year. UK CPI printed at 3.4% just above estimates of 3.3%, well above the central bank’s target 2.0% but we still expect the Bank of England to “hold” interest rates with the bank suggesting the rise being only temporary. NZ CPI prints this morning and may come in a little “seasonally” higher dampening predictions of near-term rate cuts which may in turn push the kiwi higher.
The current interbank midrate is: NZDGBP 0.4386 GBPNZD 2.2799
The interbank range this week has been: NZDGBP 0.4298- 0.4396 GBPNZD 2.2747- 2.3266
Current Level: 2.3169
Support: 2.3100
Resistance: 2.3420
Last week's range: 2.3233 - 2.3437
The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) has gained on the Euro (EUR) extending moves higher into the new week clocking 0.4990 (2.005) late morning. The cross sits at a key 3-month resistance area at 0.4995 (2.0020) and could be vulnerable to retracing moves lower. Europe is facing fresh tensions after Trump announced a 10% tariff on European countries backing Greenland from 1 February. Coming with it was the threat to raise the levy further to 25% unless a deal was met to buy the territory.
Current Level: 0.4978
Support: 0.4900
Resistance: 0.5000
Last week's range: 0.4922 - 0.4964
Current Level: 2.0088
Support: 2.000
Resistance: 2.0400
Last week's range: 2.0145 - 2.0316
The Australian Dollar (AUD) continues to trade in a range in 2026 against the US Dollar (USD) flipping between 0.6670 and 0.6770 levels. Off the open the AUD pulled back off last week’s low at 0.6670 to clock 0.6720 this morning reaching key resistance. With a hawkish RBA likely to keep interest rates on hold or hike this should keep the currency BID. Markets are still expecting around 50 points of hikes this year while the Fed moves are expected to weaken the greenback. Australian jobs data Thursday should give volatility and further upside in the AUD.
Current Level: 0.6710
Support: 0.6660
Resistance: 0.6750
Last week's range: 0.6666 - 0.6726
The Australian Dollar (AUD) moved to a 15 month high this morning reaching 0.6845 against the US Dollar (USD) before settling in late NY around the 0.6840 area. This is the biggest daily rise since May last year as markets pivoted off a muted “risk off” tone. US President Trump U-turned off taxing European countries if he did not get support to “acquire Greenland striking a deal with NATO, commodities and risk products like the AUD rallied on the news. Meanwhile, US third quarter GDP (final) was revised up to 4.4% coming in hot, the highest report in two years. Technically long-term resistance in the AUD/USD sits at 0.6900, a break above this zone and the AUD could hit the magical 0.7000 as early as next week.
The current interbank midrate is: AUDUSD 0.6837
The interbank range this week has been: AUDUSD 0.6667- 0.6843
The Australian Dollar (AUD), English Pound (GBP) continues its higher trajectory since the new year making higher lows and higher highs. Currently the cross sits at 0.5000 (2.000) this morning just off the February 2025 high. UK CPI y/y should hold steady at 3.3% when it publishes tomorrow night before Aussie employment data Thursday which is expected to tick up to 4.4%. With the labour market cooling and unemployment starting to gain momentum the signs are there of a broader economic slowing.
Current Level: 0.5002
Support: 0.4925
Resistance: 0.5010
Last week's range: 0.4964 - 0.5012
The Australian Dollar (AUD) reached a Feb 2025 High early this morning of 0.5080 (1.9685) against the British Pound (GBP) as markets turned “risk on”. UK CPI in December y/y printed at 3.4% above expectations of 3.3% was a bit of a surprise but won’t derail the Bank of England’s policy plans of not cutting interest rates further in the near term. Aussie unemployment ticked lower to 4.1% from 4.4% in December strengthening prospects that the RBA won’t cut any time soon.
The current interbank midrate is: AUDGBP 0.5065 GBPAUD 1.9743
The interbank range this week has been: AUDGBP 0.4988- 0.5080 GBPAUD 1.9685- 2.0047
Current Level: 1.9992
Support: 1.9950
Resistance: 2.0300
Last week's range: 1.9951 - 2.0144
The Australian Dollar (AUD) has entered an overbought region of late against the Euro (EUR) consolidating around the 0.5760 (1.7370) area. In the next few days, we should see the result of Trump tariff threats on European countries if no agreement to buy the Greenland territory is struck. Trump announced a tariff of 10% from 1 Feb and a further rise to 25% if doesn’t get what he wants. What he is inadvertently doing is strengthening the unity of the European countries. If Aussie job numbers come in weak Thursday, we may see markets reprice expectations of cuts.
Current Level: 0.5768
Support: 0.5680
Resistance: 0.5790
Last week's range: 0.5729 - 0.5781
Current Level: 1.7337
Support: 1.7280
Resistance: 1.7600
Last week's range: 1.7298 - 1.7455
