The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) reversed off Friday’s late flurry to 0.5985 against the US Dollar (USD) falling back amid a “risk off” tone Monday to 0.5960. NZ Retail Sales printed at 1.9% beating consensus at 0.9% in the last quarter of 2025 briefly sending the kiwi north. The RBNZ maintains a cautious stance post last week’s “hold” signalling policy will remain accommodative as inflation is projected to return to the midpoint of 2.0% over the coming year. This will restrict decent bullish moves in the medium to long term.
Current Level : 0.5956
Support : 0.5940
Resistance : 0.6000
Last week's range : 0.5937- 0.6052
The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) bounced off support midweek at the 0.5950 zone returning above the key 0.6000 level against the US Dollar (USD). US Stocks closed lower in overnight trading initially taking the kiwi with it before seeing a small recovery late in NY to 0.5980 levels. The fragile mood of markets with ongoing geopolitical concerns at the forefront may keep upside bias in the NZD capped into next week. ANZ's business activity outlook index shows a solid recovery in 2026 growth. Technically, if we get a daily close above the headline at 0.6050 the NZD/USD could post 0.6200.
The current interbank midrate is: NZDUSD 0.5977
The interbank range this week has been: NZDUSD 0.5941- 0.6012
It's more of the same in the New Zealand Dollar (NZD), Australian Dollar (AUD) cross with price trading into Tuesday around recent long term 0.8440 (1.1850) lows. NZ Retail Sales came in hotter than we were expecting yesterday fleetingly touching 0.8465 (1.1810) but lost topside momentum. On the calendar this week we have Australian CPI y/y expected to print at 3.7% down from December's 3.8% which should keep the RBA focused on possible rate hikes later in the year. Those buying AUD should consider buying on spikes.
Current Level : 0.8431
Support : 0.8430
Resistance : 0.8475
Last week's range : 0.8433- 0.8562
Current Level : 1.1842
Support : 1.1800
Resistance : 1.1860
Last week's range : 1.1679- 1.1857
The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) continues to be out paced by the steaming hot Australian Dollar (AUD) this week posting a fresh low at 0.8410 (1.1892) this morning as the Aussie looks unstoppable. Australian CPI data published up on expectations of 3.7% at 3.8% y/y highlighting the tight Australian jobs market and prospects of inflation taking off again. The broader Australian economic backdrop remains robust with interest rate tightening to continue later this year. The next technical point of interest is at the key level of 0.8300 (1.2050), unless we see significant data suggesting otherwise, we expect the AUD momentum to continue.
The current interbank midrate is: NZDAUD 0.8411 AUDNZD 1.1882
The interbank range this week has been: NZDAUD 0.8409- 0.8467 AUDNZD 1.1810- 1.1891
The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) took on significant losses last week in the aftermath of the RBNZ being less hawkish on forward policy. Returning lower off the July 2025 high the kiwi now sits at 0.4415 (2.2660) this morning giving back 2 weeks of momentum. If we continue to see further geopolitical risks unfold this week with Trump tariffs, we could visit the retest zone circa 0.4400 (2.2700)
Current Level : 0.4413
Support : 0.4400
Resistance : 0.4465
Last week's range : 0.4412- 0.4462
Current Level : 2.2660
Support : 2.2400
Resistance : 2.2700
Last week's range : 2.2409- 2.2663
Post Monday's NZ Retail Sales publication the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) has picked up bids off 0.4410 (2.2680) against the British Pound (GBP) posting 0.4440 (2.2520) in late NY session trading. The central bank interest rate differentials are starting to shift with the Bank of England (BoE) factoring in rate cuts later in the year, while not overly dissimilar to the Reserve Bank of New Zealand's (RBNZ) policy the RBNZ is more restrictive looking ahead through 2026. This being said we forecast a return by the cross to 0.4485 (2.2300) levels in the short to medium term.
The current interbank midrate is: NZDGBP 0.4434 GBPNZD 2.2552
The interbank range this week has been: NZDGBP 0.4408- 0.4440 GBPNZD 2.2522- 2.2684
The Euro (EUR) has been in charge early this week climbing to 1.9800 (0.5050) against the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) with markets falling into a "risk off" tone. The safe haven mood has come into play after President Trump revives global trade concerns announcing a fresh bout of tariffs. If trade tensions intensify, we could see NZD rallies capped through the week. The early Feb low at 0.5040 (1.9850) could be retested.
Current Level : 0.5053
Support : 0.5000
Resistance : 0.5130
Last week's range : 0.5052- 0.5109
Current Level : 1.9790
Support : 1.9500
Resistance : 2.000
Last week's range : 1.9570- 1.9793
For three weeks now the New Zealand Dollar (NZD), Euro (EUR) has been choppy pivoting around 0.5075 (1.9700) levels. Ongoing tariff threats and uncertainty in the middle east between Iran and USA is detrimental for the EUR, however the kiwis shas struggled for any upside in a "risk off" market. Meanwhile, the German economy is showing signs of improvement, but the recovery will be slow, the ECB is not expected to hike interest rates until 2027. We expect the NZD to track towards key levels around 0.5265 (1.9000) in the medium term.
The current interbank midrate is: NZDEUR 0.5064 EURNZD 1.9747
The interbank range this week has been: NZDEUR 0.5050- 0.5086 EURNZD 1.9659- 1.9803
The Australian Dollar (AUD) mildly slipped off the weekly open against the US Dollar (USD) dropping to 0.7050 as Trump’s tariff decision overnight has refreshed global trade uncertainty. Despite a softer greenback the Aussie failed to gain traction with uncertainty looming in trade related links to US tariffs. the US supreme court ruled against Trumps implementation of sweeping tariffs as unlawful. Following the decision Trump has moved to alternative legal measures to keep tariffs in place announcing 15% tariffs under section 122 of the 1974 Trade Act. Australian CPI y/y for January is expected to fall slightly from 3.8% to 3.7% Wednesday.
Current Level : 0.7053
Support : 0.7000
Resistance : 0.7120
Last week's range : 0.7014- 0.7096
The Australian Dollar (AUD) is set to clock its 8th consecutive week of gains against the US Dollar (USD) reaching fresh highs of 0.7135 just hours ago. The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) remains hawkish after midweek's inflation print published at 3.8% y/y up on the 3.7% y/y forecast reinforced the central banks tightening path. RBA Governor Bullock saying the labour market was a little tight and inflation a little elevated saying the economy was "close to balance." The RBA is widely expected to hike interest rates later in the year but hold in March. On the chart we need to see a clean break above 0.7130 for momentum to continue.
The current interbank midrate is: AUDUSD 0.7099
The interbank range this week has been: AUDUSD 0.7025- 0.7135
We don't expect the bull trend in the Australian Dollar (AUD), British Pound (GBP) to be broken this week with the way the pair/data and market risks are setting up. Australian CPI y/y tomorrow should strengthen the rhetoric around tightening RBA policy along with the technicals supporting a push to 0.5290 (1.8900) levels- the May 2024 high.
Current Level : 0.5224
Support : 0.5170
Resistance : 0.5255
Last week's range : 0.5178- 0.5259
Current Level : 1.9142
Support : 1.9020
Resistance : 1.9340
Last week's range : 1.9014- 1.9309
The Australian Dollar (AUD) remains dominant over the British Pound (GBP) climbing to 0.5275 (1.8960) as I write clocking a July 2024 high. We see headwinds at the 0.5290 (1.8900) zone the December 2023 level and may see a small reversal lower at this key resistance. Australian CPI in January printed at 3.8% y/y slightly up on predictions of 3.7% partly due to rises in pharma and electricity prices confirming the RBA's hawkish position. Technically the cross has been deep in a bull channel since early January's 0.4970 (2.0130), a dip towards 0.5200 (1.9230) areas is needed to signal fresh downside bias.
The current interbank midrate is: AUDGBP 0.5266 GBPAUD 1.8989
The interbank range this week has been: AUDGBP 0.5212- 0.5274 GBPAUD 1.8958- 1.9184
The Australian Dollar (AUD) was on the back foot off Monday's open against the Euro (EUR) falling to 0.5978 (1.6730) as markets turned risk adverse. Australian CPI y/y prints tomorrow and should fall slightly off 3.8% to 3.7% but reinforce tightening policy later in the year. Meanwhile rising US-Iran tensions and renewed trade uncertainty may continue to strengthen the Euro as the safer buy.
Current Level : 0.5983
Support : 0.5950
Resistance : 0.6020
Last week's range : 0.5952- 0.6016
Current Level : 1.6714
Support : 1.6620
Resistance : 1.6800
Last week's range : 1.6621- 1.6801
