• New Zealand House prices fell in January slipping 1.2% after severe weather impacts and slow consumer activity. The housing market remains delicate, especially given expectations of rate hikes later in the year.
• Polls show Labour leader Hipkins and Nationals Luxon are neck and neck as the preferred Prime Minister with elections set for November 7th this year.
• Gold retraces below 5,000 in thin Monday US Holiday trade.
• Fed interest rate expectations are for the central bank to cut twice towards the end of the year with solid NFP results.
• The Bank of England (BoE) has bought forward rate cuts as early as March.
• The Australian Dollar (AUD) as outperformed leading the way as the strongest currency overnight while the Australian Dollar (AUD) the worst performing on the main board.
The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) has flatlined around the 0.6050 zone against the US Dollar (USD) since late last week with markets thin for US Presidents Day holiday break. The RBNZ comes into spotlight this week with players expecting the Reserve Bank to hold at 2.25% and deliver a hawkish guidance on the interest rate outlook amid upside risks to inflation. Meanwhile the greenback forecast in a couple of cuts towards the end of 2026. In theory as divergence in policy widens, we should get a boost to the NZDUSD over the next few months.
Current Level : 0.6030
Support : 0.6000
Resistance : 0.6080
Last week's range : 0.5995- 0.6075
The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) has weakened midweek against the US Dollar (USD) after the RBNZ cash rate review was less hawkish than predicted. The RBNZ held the cash rate at 2.25% but wasn't so confident we will see rises to inflation in the coming year. Prices were bouncing around 0.6030 but dropped post release to 0.5945 this morning before settling at 0.5970 levels. The number of individuals who filed for unemployment in the US dropped raising speculation of a halt to future rate cuts. At the moment forecasts are for a cut later in the year towards June-September but if inflation starts to rise cuts may not evaluate. This scenario could weaken the kiwi.
The current interbank midrate is: NZDUSD 0.5971
The interbank range this week has been: NZDUSD 0.5945- 0.6053
The Australian Dollar (AUD) has been the outperforming currency so far this year agst a basket of currencies. The prospects of further RBA rate hikes after February’s 0.25% jump to 3.85% means just this factor alone should keep the AUD well supported in 2026. Against the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) we have only seen the kiwi close higher over a dozen weeks since mid-2025. Currently prices trade around 0.8525 (1.1720) a June 2013 low. All eyes this week will be on the RBNZ rate announcement expected to remain at 2.25% with a hawkish bias.
NZD/AUD
Current Level : 0.8524
Support : 0.8490
Resistance : 0.8570
Last week's range : 0.8478- 0.8582
AUD/NZD
Current Level : 1.1720
Support : 1.1670
Resistance : 1.1780
Last week's range : 1.1651- 1.1795
The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) has weakened midweek against the US Dollar (USD) after the RBNZ cash rate review was less hawkish than predicted. The RBNZ held the cash rate at 2.25% but wasn't so confident we will see rises to inflation in the coming year. Prices were bouncing around 0.6030 but dropped post release to 0.5945 this morning before settling at 0.5970 levels. The number of individuals who filed for unemployment in the US dropped raising speculation of a halt to future rate cuts. At the moment forecasts are for a cut later in the year towards June-September but if inflation starts to rise cuts may not evaluate. This scenario could weaken the kiwi.
The current interbank midrate is: NZDAUD 0.8460 AUDNZD 1.1813
The interbank range this week has been: NZDAUD 0.8453- 0.8562 AUDNZD 1.1679- 1.1830
The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) has done well against the British Pound (GBP) since mid-January coming from the 0.4275 (2.3400) level to clock 0.4450 (2.2460) late last week, settling in early morning thin US holiday trade at 0.4430 (2.2580). This week’s attention lies with the announcement of the RBNZ’s cash rate with expectations of a “hold” at 2.25% but a hawkish tone. The central bank may talk up rate hikes towards the end of the year with inflation expectations due to rise. With the Bank of England bringing forward interest rate cuts we expect the kiwi to remain in control.
NZD/GBP
Current Level : 0.4426
Support : 0.4390
Resistance : 0.4450
Last week's range : 0.4410- 0.4453
GBP/NZD
Current Level : 2.2593
Support : 2.2470
Resistance : 2.2770
Last week's range : 2.2453- 2.2673
Midweek’s short trip to 0.4465 (2.2400) in the New Zealand Dollar (NZD), British Pound (GBP) was met with resistance retreating to 0.4420 (2.2640) as data came in. The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) left the (OCR) cash rate on hold as unanimously predicted but the following statement was less hawkish than markets were predicting weakening the NZD. With the RBNZ pushing back on rate hike predictions and the Bank of England (BoE) boosting odds of a rate cut post cooling January CPI we may see the kiwi continue to make inroads.
The current interbank midrate is: NZDGBP 0.4432 GBPNZD 2.2563
The interbank range this week has been: NZDGBP 0.4416- 0.4462 GBPNZD 2.2407- 2.2643
The Euro (EUR), New Zealand Dollar (NZD) sits around the 0.5090 (1.9640) level early Tuesday pivoting around this level for the past couple of weeks. The RBNZ policy meeting is tomorrow when they are widely expected to keep the cash rate unchanged at 2.25% in a hawkish review. The euro has edged slightly lower over the past few hours with Industrial Production contracting 1.4% in December. This reinforces the view that the ECB should keep interest rates on hold through 2026. German manufacturing prints at the end of the week.
NZD/EURO
Current Level : 0.5089
Support : 0.5050
Resistance : 0.5120
Last week's range : 0.5058- 0.5113
EURO/NZD
Current Level : 1.9650
Support : 1.9520
Resistance : 1.9800
Last week's range : 1.9556- 1.9767
Continued strength in the Australian Dollar (AUD) has taken it to 0.7060 this morning against a slow US Dollar (USD) amid Presidents Day holiday thin trading. Australian unemployment remains at multi decade lows at 4.1% but is predicted to tick higher Thursday to 4.2%. This won’t cause any alarm for the RBA with the labour market tight. Currently the Aussie is on track to close its highest month since June 2022 and retest the May 2022 close at 0.7165.
Current Level : 0.7072
Support : 0.7000
Resistance : 0.7150
Last week's range : 0.7006- 0.7145
The Australian Dollar (AUD) held gains this week against the US Dollar (USD) around the 0.7050 zone. Aussie employment is still tight with the number of employed people rising in January and the unemployment remaining at 4.1% after a 4.2% read was expected. Strong job numbers should keep inflation elevated and the RBA hawkish going forward. Persistent inflation risks in the US are keeping the Fed on alerts inflation is expected to ease towards 2.0%, but if this doesn't happen hikes may be flagged.
The current interbank midrate is: AUDUSD 0.7055
The interbank range this week has been: AUDUSD 0.7023- 0.7096
The Australian Dollar (AUD), British Pound (GBP) consolidates around 0.5195 (1.9250) in early week thin trading. Late last week the Pound had its best run in months retracing losses off 0.5240 (1.9080) supported by British PM Starmer pledging to stay in the job. Most market participants expect the Bank of England (BoE) to cut rates at their 19 March meeting with CPI expected to print at 3.0% y/y in January below December’s print. We may see prices test the prior low at 0.5240 (1.9080) this week.
AUD/GBP
Current Level : 0.5188
Support : 0.5180
Resistance : 0.5240
Last week's range : 0.5155- 0.5241
GBP/AUD
Current Level : 1.9275
Support : 1.9090
Resistance : 1.9310
Last week's range : 1.9078- 1.9397
AUD/GBP pair this week:
The Australian Dollar (AUD) extended its run higher off 0.5180 (1.9300) levels against the British Pound (GBP) Monday climbing to 0.5245 (1.9070) into this morning's NY close. This marks the July 2024 high in the cross. Divergence in central bank policy has been the driver of recent momentum. UK inflation dropped to 3.0% in January from 3.4% boosting chances of a cut later this year. With policy seemingly widening more this week we see good chances of further upside in the Aussie.
The current interbank midrate is: AUDGBP 0.5237 GBPAUD 1.9095
The interbank range this week has been: AUDGBP 0.5178- 0.5249 GBPAUD 1.9049- 1.9309
The Australian Dollar (AUD) continues to outperform the Euro (EUR) in 2026 extending its run over 6% to 0.5970 (1.6750) this morning, a 1 year high. The ECB outlook is dovish with the central bank expecting to keep interest rates neutral over 2026, meanwhile the RBA is hawkish and expects to raise sooner rather than later perhaps mid-year if inflation proves persistent. Meanwhile Aussie unemployment looks to rise off 4.1% to 4.2% later in the week but won’t change RBA rhetoric.
AUD/EURO
Current Level : 0.5967
Support : 0.5920
Resistance : 0.6010
Last week's range : 0.5916- 0.6016
EURO/AUD
Current Level : 1.6758
Support : 1.6650
Resistance : 1.6900
Last week's range : 1.6622- 1.6903
