• The RBNZ are expected to cut rates tomorrow from 2.5% to 2.25%.
• US Non-Farm Payroll figures Friday showed an improvement to job numbers with 119,000 jobs added compared to 51,000 expected however the unemployment rate ticked up to 4.4% the highest since 2021.
• Trump accepts Xi invite to Beijing in April.
• US equity markets charge higher overnight the Nasdaq leading the way up 2.7%.
• Fed’s Waller on the wires supporting a rate cut at the December meeting.
• Gold trades at 4,100 as markets go all in on a fed rate cut.
• Bitcoin stabilises around 86,000 after retreating off the 100,000 level 2 weeks ago.
• The British Pound (GBP) is the strongest currency at the moment with the Japanese Yen (JPY) the worst performing.
The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) continues to struggle against the US Dollar (USD) posting a fresh 7-month low late week of 0.5577 before stabilising around 0.5600 into Monday. RBNZ Wednesday and will cut interest rates by 25 points to 2.25%. Markets have priced in a small chance of a 50 point (half a percent) move lower given the backdrop of rising unemployment and a sluggish economy. Recent downside momentum could be taking a breather with renewed expectations of a Fed cut in December. A break below 0.5515 and the currency is in serious trouble of a retest of the covid low at 0.5500.
Current Level: 0.5609
Support: 0.5580
Resistance: 0.5800
Last week's range: 0.5575 - 0.5688
The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) surged post the RBNZ 25-point rate cut Wednesday, the kiwi coming off 0.5625 to clock 0.5700 against the US Dollar (USD) in the hours following the release. This was clearly seen as a hawkish cut with rates now at 2.25% the lowest it’s been since May 22. The Central Bank signalling they are done with easing but stressing further moves in the OCR will depend on how the outlook for inflation evolves. The RBNZ updating their rate forecasts to no change until fourth quarter 2026 and rate hikes in Q1 2027. The NZD trades into Friday around the 0.5720 area having been as high as 0.5730 late yesterday. We expect the kiwi to drift a touch lower into the weekly close.
The current interbank midrate is: NZDUSD 0.5727
The interbank range this week has been: NZDUSD 0.5590- 0.5731
We have a couple of key economic releases on the calendar this week which should give us decent moves with Australian CPI and RBNZ announcements tomorrow. The New Zealand Dollar (NZD), Australian Dollar (AUD) bounced off last week’s low at 0.8703 (1.1490) Monday to travel to 0.8680 (1.1520) in the past few hours however we expect downside moves to be limited. With the RBNZ widely predicted to cut interest rates 25 points to 2.25% mostly priced in, volatility lies with moves with Aussie CPI which is expected to rise to 3.6% y/y. The RBA have not yet written off a rate cut in this cycle either.
Current Level: 0.8675
Support: 0.8610
Resistance: 0.8725
Last week's range: 0.8642 - 0.8732
The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) has gained on the Australian Dollar (AUD) this week clawing back last week’s losses as it reached 0.8765 (1.1410) this morning. The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) cut interest rate from 2.5% to 2.25% as widely predicted but as the announcement was largely “baked in” the NZD strengthened post announcement. Governor Hawkesby delivering a hawkish tone reinforcing they were done with their easing policy for now pending inflationary outlook and how the economy evolves. NZ Retail Sales for the September quarter printed higher than expected at 1.9% vs 0.6% also helped improve the NZD. Meanwhile, Australian CPI accelerated to 3.8% y/y confirming the RBA won’t cut anytime soon, in fact some analysts predict the RBA may start to raise rates in 2026. Overall pressures still remain to the downside long term in the cross.
The current interbank midrate is: NZDAUD 0.8764 AUDNZD 1.1404
The interbank range this week has been: NZDAUD 0.8670- 0.8777 AUDNZD 1.1393- 1.1534
Current Level: 1.1516
Support: 1.1460
Resistance: 1.1615
Last week's range: 1.1451 - 1.1571
Prices in the British Pound (GBP), New Zealand Dollar (NZD) have been locked into a bear channel over the past week with the GBP attempting to regain the long term 0.4265 (2.3460) zone. Into Tuesday the pair trades at 0.4280 (2.3360) with traders awaiting the UK Autumn Budget and RBNZ rate release. Most of the pending RBNZ rate cut from 2.5% to 2.25% is already baked into prices but markets are bracing for surprises in the UK Autumn budget as the office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) may reflect a downgrade to upcoming growth.
Current Level: 0.4279
Support: 0.4260
Resistance: 0.4330
Last week's range: 0.4270 - 0.4322
The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) has gained on the Australian Dollar (AUD) this week clawing back last week’s losses as it reached 0.8765 (1.1410) this morning. The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) cut interest rate from 2.5% to 2.25% as widely predicted but as the announcement was largely “baked in” the NZD strengthened post announcement. Governor Hawkesby delivering a hawkish tone reinforcing they were done with their easing policy for now pending inflationary outlook and how the economy evolves. NZ Retail Sales for the September quarter printed higher than expected at 1.9% vs 0.6% also helped improve the NZD. Meanwhile, Australian CPI accelerated to 3.8% y/y confirming the RBA won’t cut anytime soon, in fact some analysts predict the RBA may start to raise rates in 2026. Overall pressures still remain to the downside long term in the cross.
The current interbank midrate is: NZDGBP 0.4325 GBPNZD 2.3121
The interbank range this week has been: NZDGBP 0.4246- 0.4331 GBPNZD 2.3086- 2.3551
Current Level: 2.3369
Support: 2.3100
Resistance: 2.3480
Last week's range: 2.3134 - 2.3418
The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) made gains back late last week against the Euro (EUR) but has since succumbed to pressures around global risks. Eurozone PMI eased slightly but is still supported by strong services with manufacturing remaining pressured by US tariffs. Wage growth has cooled sharply reinforcing the ECB’s view of further easing. The OCR published tomorrow with most expecting a cut of 25 points to 2.25%, this should be the last cut in this cycle with recent cuts starting to impact consumer pockets finally.
Current Level: 0.4868
Support: 0.4840
Resistance: 0.4900
Last week's range: 0.4842 - 0.4899
Current Level: 2.0542
Support: 2.0400
Resistance: 2.0650
Last week's range: 2.0410 - 2.0650
The Australian Dollar (AUD) dived to a 4-month low late in the week posting 0.6420 against the US Dollar (USD). Early trading this week looks to be slightly “Bid” in the cross with prices trading around 0.6465. Global concerns continue to weigh on the Aussie and general risk appetite. Japanese minister Takaichi said a Chinese military action against Taiwan could trigger a response from Japan. Chinese foreign minister Wang Yi wasn’t happy. China and Japan are Australia’s 2 largest trading partners which could limit buyer interest in the AUD this week. However, with markets now pricing in a 75% chance of a Fed cut in December downside risks in the cross could be limited?
Current Level: 0.6462
Support: 0.6400
Resistance: 0.6700
Last week's range: 0.6420 - 0.6537
The Australian Dollar (AUD) advanced to 0.6540 levels against the US Dollar (USD) after opening the week at the 0.6450 area. A strong capital expenditure report in Australia during the third quarter and a reinforced cautious stance by the RBA with a rise to inflation has given the AUD a boost. CPI has risen to 3.8%, beating forecasts of 3.5% reinforcing views that pressures remain to high for the RBA to start easing policy soon. We may not see another cut until mid-2026 if at all. Meanwhile chances of a Fed cut at their December meeting is rising- NY Fed president Williams saying further easing is imminent. If the cross can post a daily close above 0.6530 we may see further upside develop.
The current interbank midrate is: AUDUSD 0.6533
The interbank range this week has been: AUDUSD 0.6435- 0.6539
The Australian Dollar (AUD), British Pound (GBP) opened at 0.4930 (2.0270) Monday and trades around this area as I write. The Aussie may come under a little pressure this week with global tensions affecting risk trading, however the Hopes of new Chinese property stimulus and a firmer Yuan may help AUD buyers. The RBA remains cautious of cutting but with CPI publishing tomorrow we should get a good look where the RBA are placed. CPI is predicted to print at 3.6% before job’s numbers also publish. We expect prices in the cross to retest 0.4910 (2.0365).
Current Level: 0.4929
Support: 0.4910
Resistance: 0.4990
Last week's range: 0.4910 - 0.4971
Punters navigated through the UK Autumn Budget this week with the Pound (GBP) picking up bids post the release against the Australian Dollar (AUD). The main event was Australian CPI with figures climbing 3.8% y/y after consensus of 3.6% well above the RBA’s 2-3% target. The AUD pushed back from 0.4890 (2.0460) to trade early Friday circa 0.4935 (2.0260). Markets await a daily close past 0.4940 (2.0250) to signal further upside for the AUD
The current interbank midrate is: AUDGBP 0.4934 GBPAUD 2.0267
The interbank range this week has been: AUDGBP 0.4884- 0.4942 GBPAUD 2.0232- 2.0471
Current Level: 2.0288
Support: 2.0040
Resistance: 2.0370
Last week's range: 2.0113 - 2.0365
The Australian Dollar (AUD) remains on the back foot against the Euro (EUR) trading around 0.5610 (1.7830) from early November’s 0.5690 (1.7570) the top of a bear channel. These moves suggest the Euro could be better supported this week. Backing this up is Australian CPI y/y data tomorrow which is predicted to print at 3.6% adding thought to the RBA cutting further on December 9.
Current Level: 0.5608
Support: 0.5540
Resistance: 0.5680
Last week's range: 0.5575 - 0.5636
Current Level: 1.7831
Support: 1.7600
Resistance: 1.8050
Last week's range: 1.7742 - 1.7937
