• Happy New Year to all - hope everyone had a great break and is well rested and ready to hit the ground running in 2026.
• The Greenback is under pressure following the news of a criminal investigation of Chairman Powell.
• Global markets open 2026 under geopolitical jitters with Iran facing serious unrest, meanwhile President Trump touts himself as the acting president of Venezuela after the removal of former President Nicolas Maduro.
• Gold has climbed to an all-time high of 4,630.00 an ounce.
• Iran erupts in deadly protests as Trump threatens Oil intervention.
• The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) has been the strongest currency this week with the US Dollar (USD) the worst performing on the main board.
Broad US Dollar (USD) weakness has pushed up the New Zealand Dollar (NZD overnight to 0.5765 off 0.5720 back to where the cross opened 2026. Geopolitical risks over the New Year period have kept the kiwi reasonably range bound. Domestic economic markers remain mixed with still a fair bit of uncertainty around growth and momentum which could push the RBNZ to ease again this year. Markets await US CPI tomorrow which could print around 2.7% y/y and set policy for the next few months.
Current Level: 0.5774
Support: 0.5720
Resistance: 0.5850
Last week's range: 0.5710 - 0.5809
What goes up must come down. The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) continues its lower high’s followed by lower lows theme against the US Dollar (USD) to trade to 0.5740 this morning. Although the kiwi has lost momentum over the week, we think it’s still bullish on the long-term view. US CPI y/y rose 2.7% this week unchanged from November’s read with energy reporting modest gains. This is still above the Fed’s 2% goal which will no doubt force the Fed to hold rates at their late Jan meeting.
The current interbank midrate is: NZDUSD 0.5737
The interbank range this week has been: NZDUSD 0.5722- 0.5782
Over the past couple of weeks, we have seen the New Zealand Dollar (NZD), Australian Dollar (AUD) swing between 0.8555 (1.1690) and 0.8645 (1.1574) currently trading at 0.8600 levels. The economic recovery in New Zealand remains fragile limiting decent upside moves. The RBA has held the cash rate substantially higher than the RBNZ’s 2.25% at 3.6% siting persistent inflationary pressures. With no data on the docket this week moves will favour geopolitical news.
Current Level: 0.8603
Support: 0.8550
Resistance: 0.8645
Last week's range: 0.8552 - 0.8636
Central Bank divergence between Australia and New Zealand continue to take a toll on the NZD with prices dropping to 0.8570 (1.1670) in overnight trading to post a new daily low not seen since July 2013- impressively this is over 12 years ago. Widening interest rate differentials may continue over the next few months as the NZ economy is expected to take a while to gain any momentum. Next week’s Aussie employment data and NZ 4th quarter CPI should give us moves. Buying AUD- consider on spikes.
The current interbank midrate is: NZDAUD 0.8561 AUDNZD 1.1669
The interbank range this week has been: NZDAUD 0.8563- 0.8615 AUDNZD 1.1607- 1.1677
Current Level: 1.1623
Support: 1.1570
Resistance: 1.1700
Last week's range: 1.1579 - 1.1692
The New Zealand Dollar (NZD), British Pound (GBP) closed out 2025 around 0.4280 (2.3370) levels after a strong rally late in the year. The cross has since been trading sideways to 0.4290 (2.3320) now with no real direction in sight. Overall risk sentiment is hurting the NZD along with RBNZ easing policy vs the Bank of England maintaining higher rates at 3.75%. We will need solid data to publish in the NZ economic landscape to fundamentally shift the kiwi outside the bear channel it has been trapped in for some time. UK GDP m/m publishes Thursday.
Current Level: 0.4285
Support: 0.4260
Resistance: 0.4300
Last week's range: 0.4263 - 0.4295
The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) has made solid gains against the British Pound (GBP) from Wednesday clawing back losses from 0.4265 (2.3440) to post 0.4290 (2.3300) in early morning. UK monthly GDP came in at 0.3% - higher than the 0.1% predicted bouncing back from the contraction of -0.1% in October. This weakened the GBP as punters positioned for a modest improvement. Technically we are looking a daily close above 0.4300 (2.3240) to confirm a shift in the kiwi to a bullish bias.
The current interbank midrate is: NZDGBP 0.4288 GBPNZD 2.3320
The interbank range this week has been: NZDGBP 0.4266- 0.4293 GBPNZD 2.3291- 2.3437
Current Level: 2.337
Support: 2.3240
Resistance: 2.3470
Last week's range: 2.3279 - 2.3454
The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) has been soft over the past few days but has outperformed the Euro (EUR) of late as geopolitical risks weigh heavy. Markets still expect the ECB to hold interest rates amid contained inflation and modest growth. Eurozone growth is expected to improve gradually with inflation staying near target supporting the currency over mid-term. A shift through 0.4870 (2.0540) spells trouble for the kiwi.
Current Level: 0.4952
Support: 0.4840
Resistance: 0.5000
Last week's range: 0.4909 - 0.4956
Current Level: 2.0193
Support: 2.000
Resistance: 2.0650
Last week's range: 2.0174 - 2.0369
The Australian Dollar (AUD) opened 2026 around 0.6670 levels against the US Dollar (USD) and moved to 0.6760 before risk conditions took a turn with the cross dropping to 0.6650 yesterday. The Aussie has been overall supported by a weaker greenback as geopolitical pressures eased. Technically the AUD could improve to prior highs around 0.6750 if we see “risk” in markets continue. Markets are still expecting the Fed to cut interest rates in 2026 which could also improve the AUD. Geopolitical pressures could still turn Aussie demand.
Current Level: 0.6709
Support: 0.6680
Resistance: 0.6760
Last week's range: 0.6623 - 0.6766
With mostly US data publishing this week the main drivers in the crosses, we have seen big shifts in currencies. The Australian Dollar (AUD) clocked a low of 0.6663 against the greenback after earlier reaching 0.6725, it has been a risk on-risk off kinda week. US CPI y/y came in at 2.7% in December in line with expectations with the data suggesting the Fed will hold interest rates at their next meeting. Australian CPI easing to 3.4% from 3.6% y/y, the RBA saying they have not ruled out further tightening/rise in rates early Feb with inflation still outside their comfort zone. On the chart the shoulder line at 0.6720 is the next target.
The current interbank midrate is: AUDUSD 0.6697
The interbank range this week has been: AUDUSD 0.6666- 0.6726
The Australian Dollar (AUD) improved in the new year to reach 0.5010 (1.9964) against the British Pound (GBP) an early 2025 high before giving back gains to 0.4980 (2.0075) this morning. The pair looking reasonable stable in a volatile market given the uncertainties around geopolitical risks. Markets see modest chances of an RBA rate hike early in 2026 with the BoE not expected to cut in their Feb meet with decent wage growth the main driver.
Current Level: 0.4978
Support: 0.4950
Resistance: 0.5010
Last week's range: 0.4953 - 0.5008
A combination of a “risk on” market tone and broad-based GBP weakness has sent the Australian Dollar (AUD) to a fresh long term high of 0.5007 (1.9972) in early Friday trading. This daily close is the highest since Feb last year. This if anything highlights central bank divergence with the RBA looking to hold rates or hike and the Bank of England (BoE) expected to cut again soon. With the interest rates looking to move in Australia’s favour we could see further upside in the AUD/GBP in the coming months.
The current interbank midrate is: AUDGBP 0.5006 GBPAUD 1.9976
The interbank range this week has been: AUDGBP 0.4964- 0.5012 GBPAUD 1.9952- 2.0143
Current Level: 2.0088
Support: 1.9955
Resistance: 2.0200
Last week's range: 1.9966 - 2.0187
The Australian Dollar (AUD) extended its run higher in the new year off 0.5800 (1.7250) jumping to 0.5785 (1.7290) last week against the Euro (EUR) a May 2025 high before settling around 0.5750 (1.7400) areas. As political pressures remain we could see further downside develop in the Aussie, the ECB are predicted to leave interest rates unchanged amid contained inflation and modest ongoing growth factors.
Current Level: 0.5752
Support: 0.5715
Resistance: 0.5750
Last week's range: 0.5701 - 0.5784
Current Level: 1.7385
Support: 1.7340
Resistance: 1.7500
Last week's range: 1.7289 - 1.7540
