• Federal Reserve Governor Miran said the Fed should remain completely autonomy from political operations.
• ECB’s Lagarde expects ECB’s inflation to stabilise at the target 2.0% in the medium term.
• Gold rallies to 5,070 as China requests institutions to reduce US Treasury Exposure weakening the US Dollar.
• Australian Consumer Confidence up to 90% in February.
• The Japanese Yen 9JPY0 has strengthened off the back of Takaichi’s Liberal Party’s landslide victory.
• US Tariff impacts have cost the American household about a 1,000 last year.
• Markets have been “risk on” this week, the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) leading the way as the strongest currency this week while the US Dollar (USD) is the worst performing on the main board.
The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) has orbited to 0.6050 this morning against the US Dollar (USD) off the 0.6010 weekly open. Markets are very “risk on” currently amid a round of “big” Dollar weakness. Markets are cautious ahead of key US economic releases which have been disrupted partially by federal govt shutdowns. Labour market numbers print early tomorrow before NFP releasing, both are predicted to come in light. We expect a retest of the late Jan high at 0.6090 before pushing through 0.6100 levels.
Current Level : 6044
Support : 0.6000
Resistance : 0.6090
Last week's range : 0.5927- 0.6062
NZD/USD pair this week:
It’s been a sea of red this week on the US Front with key data coming in under expectations putting further pressure on the greenback. The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) rallied to 0.6075 in late NY but has since settled around 0.6035. It was Non-Farm Payroll (NFP) numbers providing the only upside for the USD with the Unemployment Rate publishing at 4.3% from 4.4%. All eyes now turn to next week’s RBNZ rate announcement with expectations of a hold at 2.25% and a review suggesting the central bank will hike late in the year with signs of a strong economic comeback. The next target for the kiwi is 0.6150.
The current interbank midrate is: NZDUSD 0.6036
The interbank range this week has been: NZDUSD 0.5995- 0.6075
The Australian Dollar (AUD) has continued to graft higher Monday against the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) posting 1.1710 (0.8540) mid-morning. This marks the lowest level in the cross since July 2013. Central bank divergence remains the driving force behind recent moves with the RBA staying hawkish. We have no data this week in the pair, so we expect direction to continue towards 0.8475 (1.1800). Selling AUD-
fill ya boots.
Current Level : 0.8537
Support : 0.8475
Resistance : 0.8695
Last week's range: 0.8571- 0.8676
NZD/AUD pair this week:
The Australian Dollar (AUD) has extended its bull run against the New Zealand Dollar this week reaching 0.8480 (1.1795) overnight before settling around 0.8510 (1.1750). As we have been suggesting central bank divergence with a cautious approach seen by the RBNZ has been the main driver behind moves. The RBNZ only has hikes prices in for late this year along with a lower revised growth outlook which could continue to limit the kiwi's upside. Last time prices were trading at these levels was June 2013.
The current interbank midrate is: NZDAUD 0.8506 AUDNZD 1.1747
The interbank range this week has been: NZDAUD 1.1656- 1.1795 AUDNZD 0.8478- 0.8579
Current Level : 1.1705
Support : 1.1500
Resistance : 1.1800
Last week's range : 1.1526- 1.1667
The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) has moved higher across the board this week, clocking a fresh high of 0.4435 (2.2540) against the British Pound (GBP) early this morning on improved risk appetite. Technically the kiwi has broken the upside of the bear channel in play from Jan 2023, the first time it has moved outside the range confirming we may see further moves towards the key zone around 0.4475 (2.2340). UK GDP m/m prints late in the week.
Current Level : 0.4419
Support : 0.4265
Resistance : 0.4480
Last week's range: 0.4386- 0.4426
NZD/GBP pair this week:
The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) has given back most of this week's gains early Friday trading off 0.4455 (2.2450) to 0.4430 (2.2570) at the NY close as risk markets turn "risk off". UK GDP prelim q/q printed at 0.1% just below expectations of 0.2% with growth momentum clearly sluggish. This has bought on fresh speculation of a rate cut by the Bank of England (BoE). Next week's RBNZ cash rate followed by UK CPI y/y are next week's calendar features. Moves towards the key zone around 0.4475 (2.2340) still look viable.
The current interbank midrate is: NZDGBP 0.4432 GBPNZD 2.2563
The interbank range this week has been: NZDGBP 0.4409- 0.4453 GBPNZD 2.2453- 2.2678
Current Level : 2.2629
Support : 2.2317
Resistance : 2.3440
Last week's range : 2.2589- 2.2797
The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) recovered off early week drops from 0.5035 (1.9860) back to 0.5085 (1.9660) against the Euro (EUR) with the kiwi pushing outside the long-term bear channel from October 2024. It's possible this could be just a “risk on” move in line with the weaker greenback but if the NZD/EUR can close the week above 0.5030 (1.9890) this could confirm a momentum shift. The Euro economy is showing modest resilience with 0.3% q/q growth printing, but economic data still remains mixed.
Current Level : 0.5078
Support : 0.4870
Resistance : 0.5120
Last week's range: 0.5037- 0.5128
Current Level : 1.9692
Support : 1.9520
Resistance : 2.0540
Last week's range : 1.9500- 1.9853
We have seen a strong rally in the Australian Dollar Monday off 0.7000 numbers against the US Dollar (USD) reaching 0.7100 at the close of the NY session. Greenback weakness is to blame with data releasing this week expected to be under par. The RBA have made comment of a firmer policy stance, Bullock saying the RBA raised the rate last week because the economy is more capital- constrained than previously assessed implying the need for tighter policy. Trump has repeated attacks on the independence of the Fed and concerns over the fiscal outlook. The AUD/USD sits at the highest level since Feb 2023 marking a particularly good time to buy USD.
Current Level : 0.7078
Support : 0.6900
Resistance : 0.7500
Last week's range: 0.6897- 0.7048
AUD/USD pair this week:
The Australian Dollar (AUD) reached a fresh 2-year high overnight against the US Dollar (USD) clocking 0.7145 mostly supported by the RBA’s ongoing hawkish tone and poor US data releasing. RBA Governor Bullock reiterating she was happy to see inflation in the 3’s and would raise rates further if price pressures continued. US Non-Farm Payroll (NFP) was the only highlight pulling back the cross mildly to 0.7085 with unemployment easing from 4.3% from 4.4%. Looking ahead we have US CPI y/y tonight expected to come in lighter at 2.5%, followed by Aussie unemployment next week.
The current interbank midrate is: AUDUSD 0.7093
The interbank range this week has been: AUDUSD 0.7007- 0.7146
The Australian Dollar (AUD) has extended its run higher off the weekly open against the British Pound (GBP) to 1.9305 a November 2024 high. Resistance on the chart sits at 1.9070, break through this zone could signal further upside to 1.8600. The Aussie has found widespread support of late from the RBA stance on policy with Governor Bullock saying she prefers a tighter policy stance. Data in the pair this week comes in the form of UK GDP m/m expected to tick lower from 0.3% to 0.1%, numbers supporting a downgraded 2026 forecast.
Current Level : 0.5174
Support : 0.4765
Resistance : 0.520
Last week's range: 0.5056- 0.5161
AUD/GBP pair this week:
The Australian Dollar (AUD) has extended its run of dominance this week against the British Pound (GBP) reaching 0.5240 (1.9075) this morning. The RBA's Bullock continues to repeat the mantra "hawkish" tone. With the cash rate now at 3.85% we expect at least one more rate hike in 2026 with incoming data to reflect policy moves. UK GDP has slowed with figures highlighting a possible rate cut by the Bank of England (BoE). This may in turn weigh on the Pound in the medium term.
The current interbank midrate is: AUDGBP 0.5207 GBPAUD 1.9204
The interbank range this week has been: AUDGBP 0.5155- 0.5241 GBPAUD 1.9077- 1.9396
Current Level : 1.9327
Support : 1.9230
Resistance : 2.0980
Last week's range : 1.9373- 1.9775
The Australian Dollar (AUD) continues to push higher in 2026 vs the Euro (EUR) with prices showing 0.5950 (1.6800) this morning meeting the long-term resistance level. We look for a weekly close above 1.6440 to cement further Aussie upside. With the RBA remaining hawkish on policy the bias certainly looks favourable for the AUD. Mid-term looks positive in the Eurozone with EU reforms which may offer the Euro a tailwind.
Current Level : 0.5946
Support : 0.5555
Resistance : 0.5965
Last week's range: 0.5832- 0.5966
Current Level : 1.6818
Support : 1.6760
Resistance : 1.8000
Last week's range : 1.6759- 1.7145
