• The Federal Govt remains in lockdown. The federal government entered a shutdown on October 1, 2025, after congress couldn’t agree on budget programs.
• Equity rally sparks a risk on mood sending the kiwi and Aussie currencies pushing higher against the greenback.
• Gold has flipped below 4,000 an ounce as markets turn risk and China/US tensions thaw. Trump is set to meet Chinese leaser Xi on Thursday.
• The Jerusalem Post has reported- “the response to the current violations by Hamas will be significantly greater than the response last time”. Hostilities may look to resume.
• Markets have priced in a 25-point cut this week by the Federal Reserve and another quarter cut in their December meeting.
• The Japanese Yen (JPY) is the strongest currency at the moment with the British Pound (GBP) the worst performing.
The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) pushed up off the weekly open to trade around 0.5780 levels against the US Dollar (USD). It may test the 0.5800 zone today if we can get a 4H close about 0.5790. On the downside 0.5750 remains intact. RBNZ governor Hawkesby speaks tonight before FOMC early morning when the Fed are expected to cut from 4.25% to 4.0%.
Current Level: 0.5780
Support: 0.5700
Resistance: 0.5840
Last week's range: 0.5709 - 0.5774
The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) slipped below 0.5750 in overnight trading against the US Dollar (USD) clocking 0.5725 before settling around 0.5740 early morning. Post yesterday’s Fed rate cut of 25 points to 4.00% the kiwi was trading around 0.5800 numbers. The Feds December fed cut forecast is by no means a forgone conclusion with widening disagreement between members, upcoming labour data should confirm what they do. Back home the RBNZ looks certain to cut again at their Nov 26 meeting. The kiwi should face ongoing headwinds with a stronger greenback.
The current interbank midrate is: NZDUSD 0.5737
The interbank range this week has been: NZDUSD 0.5725- 0.5800
The Australian Dollar (AUD) has surged higher off the weekly open against the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) posting 0.8785 (1.1385) into Tuesday sessions. A daily close through 0.8770 (1.1400) will track the November 2013 low. Aussie CPI publishes later today and is expected to represent a rise in inflation to 3.1% y/y from 3.0%. If this plays out, we could see more emphasis on a rate cut at their November 4 meeting.
Current Level: 0.8780
Support: 0.8735
Resistance: 0.8850
Last week's range: 0.8805 - 0.8865
It’s not looking good for the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) with prices again lower this week against the Australian Dollar (AUD) as the cross retests the daily low at 0.8760 (1.1415) this morning. A daily close past 0.8740 (1.1440) would certainly signal a broader breakout with the pair perhaps targeting the November 2013 low of 0.8635 (1.1580). Australian CPI turned out to be a bumper release coming in at 3.2% in the third quarter up from second quarter’s 2.9% lowering forecasts of a rate cut at next week’s RBA meeting. As 3.2% is now outside the RBA’s 1-3% band when do they call it a “runaway”. Incoming labour data will be the key for a continued easing program in 2026.
The current interbank midrate is: NZDAUD 0.8753 AUDNZD 1.1411
The interbank range this week has been: NZDAUD 0.8751- 0.8845 AUDNZD 1.1305 - 1.1427
Current Level: 1.1375
Support: 1.1300
Resistance: 1.1450
Last week's range: 1.1280 - 1.1356
The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) extended its run higher against the British Pound (GBP) reaching 0.4360 (2.2950) this morning. If we can get break above the key level at 0.4365 (2.2900) the next level of interest is 0.4400 (2.2700) the early September high. We have no upcoming data on the calendar to report, price moves will be mostly "risk" sensitive.
Current Level: 0.4354
Support: 0.4330
Resistance: 0.4365
Last week's range: 0.4265 - 0.4385
ANZ Business confidence jumped from 50 to 58 yesterday, the highest level since February with nett firms expecting a positive outlook for the rest of 2025. It is obvious the 1.75% cuts this year are starting to flow into cash in hand and make a difference to consumers. On the charts the NZD punched through to 0.4385 (2.2800) mid-week before settling around 0.4365 (2.2900) as the recent risk on sentiment turned. With another 25-point cut on the books for late November we see prices retesting the 0.4390 (2.2770) zone.
The current interbank midrate is: NZDGBP 0.4361 GBPNZD 2.2930
The interbank range this week has been: NZDGBP 0.4316- 0.4385 GBPNZD 2.2805- 2.3167
Current Level: 2.2967
Support: 2.2900
Resistance: 2.3100
Last week's range: 2.3103 - 2.3440
The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) has extended gains on the Euro (EUR) Monday reaching 0.4962 (2.0150) in Tuesday markets as markets enjoy fresh risk on moves. The ECB is expecting US tariff effects to be short lived, offset by Germany's fiscal stimulus while interest rates should be unchanged at the 30 October meeting. ECB's Lagarde rhetoric should be along the lines of policy remaining in a good place. Also of note was German business sentiment improving in October. The kiwi could struggle to break past 0.5000 (2.000) levels towards the end of the week, we expect a reversal lower into the close.
Current Level: 0.4961
Support: 0.4900
Resistance: 0.5000
Last week's range: 0.4913 - 0.4964
Current Level: 2.0157
Support: 2.0000
Resistance: 2.0400
Last week's range: 2.0143 - 2.0351
The Australian Dollar (AUD) is back over 0.6550 levels this morning against the US Dollar (USD) on the news of a successful US/China framework for their pending meeting in South Korea stimulating a "risk on" market mood. Also, of note was Governor Bullock comments around employment and sticky inflation which could indicate slower easing. Australian CPI y/y is later today with forecasts of a pop higher to 3.1% from 3.0%.
Current Level: 0.6480
Support: 0.6480
Resistance: 0.6685
Last week's range: 0.6473 - 0.6528
The Australian Dollar (AUD) hasn’t been able to hold midweek prices around 0.6600 against the US Dollar (USD) trading into Friday around 0.6550. The US Fed cut rates as widely predicted yesterday sending buyers into the greenback after Governor Powell said a cut at their December meeting wasn’t a done deal, he was more hawkish than markets were expecting. Incoming labour data over the next few weeks could be the key along with the timing of how long US Govt shutdowns persist. The longer the closures continue the less data will publish and the more uncertain markets will be which could reflect a cut in December. We see resistance at 0.6620.
The current interbank midrate is: AUDUSD 0.6552
The interbank range this week has been: AUDUSD 0.6532- 0.6617
The Australian Dollar (AUD) has rallied higher to 0.4690 (2.0150) against the British Pound (GBP) on the news of successful US/China framework for the upcoming summit in South Korea improving a risk on mood across markets. The AUD also has gained further momentum post RBA governor Bullock's vigilant comments ahead of their November meeting where she spoke of balanced employment and sticky inflation. The next target in the pair is 0.5000 (2.000) just off the yearly high.
Current Level: 0.4957
Support: 0.4760
Resistance: 0.5035
Last week's range: 0.4833 - 0.4897
The RBA is likely to hold interest rates at 3.3% for the remainder of the year in their November and December meetings after Australian CPI published up on expectations Wednesday. Australian inflation rose from 3.0% to 3.2% in the third quarter ending September surging above forecasts of 2.9% slamming any views on if the RBA would cut. The AUD has done extremely well this week against the Pound (GBP) reaching 0.5006 (1.9976) before giving back smalls to 0.4975 (2.0100) this morning. Next week’s RBA may end up being a non-event. We expect a retest of 0.5025 (1.9900) in the coming days.
The current interbank midrate is: AUDGBP 0.4981 GBPAUD 2.0076
The interbank range this week has been: AUDGBP 0.4900- 0.5005 GBPAUD 1.9979- 2.0404
Current Level: 2.0173
Support: 1.9860
Resistance: 2.1000
Last week's range: 2.0420 - 2.0690
The Australian Dollar (AUD) extended Friday’s push from 0.5610 (1.7830) levels Monday to 0.5650 (1.7700) into Tuesday against the Euro (EUR) the Euro remaining sensitive to geopolitical risks with an upcoming Eurozone policy meeting looming Friday morning. The Aussie improving on China/US trade relations with a meeting set at the end of the week in South Korea between Trump and Xi sparking optimism. We think prices could reach the 0.5680 (1.7600) zone this week.
Current Level: 0.5647
Support: 0.5525
Resistance: 0.5680
Last week's range: 0.5566 - 0.5618
Current Level: 1.7708
Support: 1.7600
Resistance: 1.8100
Last week's range: 1.7798 - 1.7966
