• Markets closed the New York session this morning in a cautionary mood with equities holding firm and geopolitics remaining in a fragile position with the standoff in the strait of Hormuz.
• The US recently paused “Operation Project Freedom” and Iran are said to have created a new authority to regulate ships movement through the strait. Crude oil prices remain volatile currently around the 96.00 per barrel.
• NZ Unemployment dropped from 5.4% to 5.3% which may dampen chances the Reserve Bank of New Zealand may raise rates at the month end meeting.
• US Employment is predicted to print steady at 4.3% tonight with signs the labour market could be shrinking at a faster rate than markets have predicted.
• The Australian Dollar (AUD) has been the strongest performer this week while the US Dollar (USD) has been the worst performer.
Volatility for the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) remains an issue with prices against the US Dollar (USD) tracking left right and centre due to the “risk on/off” tone. The kiwi sits at 0.5950 early Friday after reaching 0.5990 late yesterday pushing into 8-week highs in the cross but it’s still near imposable to predict a steer in any direction. Non-Farm Payroll tonight should show a pull back to employed numbers in April highlighting fundamental shifts to the US labour market. Anything around 0.5900 looks decent buying USD.
The current interbank midrate is: NZDUSD 0.5937
The interbank range this week has been: NZDUSD 0.5856- 0.5990
Surprisingly, the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) found bids midweek against the Australian Dollar (AUD) clawing back all last week’s falls to post 0.8245 (1.2130) this morning. Big picture technical themes suggest a breakout from the long-term bear trend, a weekly close above 0.8290 (1.2060) and this could signal a proper correction and further upside for the NZD. Its slim pickings for next week’s economic data suggesting we could see the kiwi hold these levels.
The current interbank midrate is: NZDAUD 0.8234 AUDNZD 1.2133
The interbank range this week has been:
The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) pushed into 7-week highs against the British Pound (GBP) reaching key big figure resistance at 0.4400 (2.2750) before resting into Friday markets around 0.4380 (2.2820). Equities edged higher and the US Dollar weakness saw risk currencies rally. The kiwi however still lacks conviction to retest the 0.4400 (2.2700) area with risks still tilted to the downside geopolitically. Economic data over the next week looks slim suggesting the Iran conflict will be the main driver.
The current interbank midrate is: NZDGBP 0.4379 GBPNZD 2.2836
The interbank range this week has been: NZDGBP 0.4333- 0.4395 GBPNZD 2.2753- 2.3074
The Australian Dollar (AUD) pushed into new highs against the US Dollar (USD) this week reaching 0.7250 before settling around the 0.7220 zone. Improved global risk sentiment helped by easing Middle East tensions and a sharp pullback in oil process have weighed on the greenback. With the RBA lifting rates Tuesday from 4.10% to 4.35% this should provide a “floor” in the cross and support the AUD further however the big picture still looks mixed with the labour market cooling. Overall risks are dependent on risk appetite and Strait of Hormuz outcomes. If the Aussie can close the week above 0.7150, we could see a retest of 0.7300.
The current interbank midrate is: AUDUSD 0.7208
The interbank range this week has been: AUDUSD 0.7134- 0.7276
Markets over the past couple of days has been in a “risk on” mode with equity rises and easing tensions in the strait of Hormuz. The Australian Dollar (AUD) posting an 8-week high of 0.5340 (1.8730) against the British Pound (GBP) before easing back to 0.5320 (1.8800) levels Friday. The Bank of England (BoE) has cut its growth forecast this week amid rising inflation to 0.75% in 2026 down from 1.5% flagging the agriculture sector as facing financial stress with rising fuel and fertiliser costs squeezing farmer cashflows. Next week’s UK GDP m/m should report a falling number. We await a weekly close above 0.5340 (1.8730) for continuation of recent long-term momentum.
The current interbank midrate is: AUDGBP 0.5318 GBPAUD 1.8805
The interbank range this week has been: AUDGBP 0.5277- 0.5338 GBPAUD 1.8732- 1.8949
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