• The RBA are expected to hold rates today at 3.60%.
• Gold prices dip under 4,200 as markets get the wobbles over Fed cuts.
• Better than expected Chinese trade data has failed to keep “risk” momentum going.
• Trump has threatened Mexico tariffs of 5.0% due to failure to supply 800,000-acre feet of water which is needed for US crops.
• USD/JPY has moved higher to 1.5590 following an earthquake in northern Japan.
• ECB’s Schnabel said Monday she is happy with investors pricing in bets of a rate hike at next week’s meeting.
• The Australian Dollar (AUD) has been the strongest currency over the past week with US Dollar (USD) the worst performing.
Risk appetite has softened to start the week, the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) drifted a touch lower off the open around the 0.5750 area against the US Dollar (USD). Despite Chinese trade surplus numbers exceeding expectations in November the news failed to drive the kiwi higher Monday. Moves this week may be light as we approach Thursday morning’s Federal Reserve meeting. We see an 85% chance the Fed will cut their interest rate 25 points to 3.75% with further cuts in 2026. The RBNZ signals the end of its easing cycle late November, this stance a lot more restrictive than what’s expected in the coming months from the Fed. This may cushion downside moves in the cross over the coming months. We see a push towards 0.5900 prior to Christmas.
Current Level: 0.5774
Support: 0.5715
Resistance: 0.5800
Last week's range: 0.5710 - 0.5786
The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) has risen 5 days straight against the US Dollar (USD) posting fresh 2-month highs of 0.5830 this morning. US Dollar weakness has been the cause with the greenback coming under selling pressures. Fed chairman Powell’s comments reinforcing expectations of further rate cuts in 2026 but with a pause in January. The cross eyes 0.5850 resistance on the chart, a push through this region should get us clear of the bearish channel and possibly a retest of the 0.6000 zone before Christmas. Next week’s NZ quarterly GDP will be key.
The current interbank midrate is: NZDUSD 0.5809
The interbank range this week has been: NZDUSD 0.5758- 0.5830
The Australian Dollar (AUD) should get a push higher today off its current 0.8720 (1.1470) level against the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) as we near the RBA meeting this afternoon at 4.30pm NZT. The Reserve Bank of Australia are widely predicted to leave interest rates unchanged at 3.60% but we expect a hawkish tilt in policy guidance. The RBA have kept rates unchanged at 3.60% in the September and November after delivering 3 cuts earlier in 2025. With the RBNZ recently suggesting they were done easing we may not get to much further downside in this cross, however if Bullocks turns hard on policy and hints on hikes next year we may see moves towards 0.8660 (1.1550) before any long-term improvements.
Current Level: 0.8713
Support: 0.8635
Resistance: 0.8770
Last week's range: 0.8698 - 0.8772
The New Zealand Dollar (NZD), Australian Dollar (AUD) cross has mainly traded sideways over the week entering Friday around the weekly open levels of 0.8720 (1.1470). As predicted the RBA left the cash rate unchanged at 3.6% with Bullock ruling out cuts in the interim with hikes being considered. Risks are skewed towards a hike if upside risks to economic activity and inflation changes. The Australian unemployment rate remains at 4.3% but the seasonally adjusted numbers paint a different picture surging from 5.7% to 6.2% with the participation rate falling. This will give the Reserve Bank more to consider over the coming weeks as they analyse incoming data and a worsening economy.
The current interbank midrate is: NZDAUD 0.8713 AUDNZD 1.1466
The interbank range this week has been: NZDAUD 0.8683- 0.8745 AUDNZD 1.1435- 1.1516
Current Level: 1.1476
Support: 1.1400
Resistance: 1.1580
Last week's range: 1.1399 - 1.1496
We have not seen a whole lot of movement this week in the New Zealand Dollar (NZD), British Pound (GBP) cross with price hovering around the 0.4340 (2.3050) area. UK GDP numbers for October are due this Friday with economists expecting 1.4% growth y/y. Despite signs of the labour market weakening we are pricing in chances of 85% that the Bank of England (BoE) will cut interest rates at next week’s meeting. On the chart the kiwi looks like wants to make a play for the 5-week high at 0.4350 (2.3000)
Current Level: 0.4332
Support: 0.4320
Resistance: 0.4350
Last week's range: 0.4312 - 0.4350
The New Zealand Dollar (NZD), British Pound (GBP) has consolidated around 6-week highs over the week in choppy conditions around 0.4340 (2.3050). Thin on data the cross has seen small moves. Next week’s economic calendar looks far more exciting with NZ CPI and GDP along with the Bank of England Cash Rate announcement. The central bank will cut 25 points to 3.75% with 2 or 3 further cuts planned in 2026 as economic growth and job concerns outweigh inflation which is currently 3.6%, with the target under 2.0% still a long way off. If we can get a break above the bear channel to 0.4400 (2.2700) we may see further NZD buying.
The current interbank midrate is: NZDGBP 0.4337 GBPNZD 2.3057
The interbank range this week has been: NZDGBP 0.4327- 0.4354 GBPNZD 2.2965- 2.3110
Current Level: 2.3084
Support: 2.3000
Resistance: 2.3160
Last week's range: 2.2986 - 2.3188
The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) strengthened slightly off the open to trade into Tuesday at 0. 4965 (2.0140) against the Euro (EUR). Q3 Eurozone growth in October 4 y/y came in stronger at 0.3% supported by wage growth showing the economy is more resilient than predicted. We expect the cross to drift higher towards resistance at 0.5000 (2.0000) this week if ‘risk’ allows due to the lack of data publishing. The kiwi may also get a boost if the Aussie rally’s today off the RBA announcement.
Current Level: 0.4959
Support: 0.4350
Resistance: 0.4970
Last week's range: 0.4916 - 0.4967
Current Level: 2.0165
Support: 2.0120
Resistance: 2.3000
Last week's range: 2.0132 - 2.0338
The Australian Dollar (AUD) moved higher to 0.6650 Monday against the US Dollar (USD) but has since settled around the 0.6620 area as we prepare for this afternoon’s RBA meet. The Reserve Bank of Australia will meet for the final time this year at 4.30 NZT today with expectations the central bank will leave the OCR unchanged at 3.60%. What will make this interesting is the rhetoric around expectations of possible hikes in 2026. So we are expecting a hawkish hold and the AUD to rally if we see this outcome. Some are saying the RBA is not yet ready to halt their easing cycle just yet due to temporary inflationary pressures. Thursday mornings Fed cut of 25 points to 3.75% is reasonably prices in and could also give the AUD more upside bias.
Current Level: 0.6623
Support: 0.6570
Resistance: 0.6680
Last week's range: 0.6534 - 0.6648
Positive risk overnight with the DOW leading the way up 1.3% strengthened demand for the Australian Dollar (AUD) the cross posting 0.6685. The Federal Reserve cut their interest rate 25 points as widely predicted to 3.75% with Powell reinforcing that further cuts are likely in 2026 in his dovish review. Aussie job numbers released poor with fulltime employment dropping by 57,000 and the labour force shrinking 23,000, seasonally adjusted the unemployment spiked from 5.7% to 6.2% the highest in 12 months. A daily close above 0.6685 will create an October 2024 high, we expect a lot more upside in the Aussie over the coming months.
The current interbank midrate is: AUDUSD 0.6665
The interbank range this week has been: AUDUSD 0.6607- 0.6685
Expectations today at the RBA meeting are that the central bank will pivot towards a new tightening cycle in the final rate decision of 2025. The cash rate is currently 3.60% with Governor Bollock affirming greater vigilance towards inflation, a shift away from other central banks including the Bank of England who are expected to cut next week. The Australian Dollar (AUD) has weirdly weakened off the weekly open against the British Pound (GBP) to trade around 0.4970 (2.0130) at the moment. We expect a bounce lower off the Monday low to make a charge towards 0.5000 (2.000)
Current Level: 0.4968
Support: 0.4915
Resistance: 0.4990
Last week's range: 0.4942 - 0.4985
The RBA left interest rates at 3.6% as predicted sending prices in the Australian Dollar (AUD), British Pound (GBP) cross to 0.4960 (2.0160) and back to 0.4990 (2.0050) in the following hours. The pair has not shown any clear direction since with price travelling into Friday sessions still around 0.4980 (2.0070) zones. The Bank of England (BoE) should cut next week to 3.75% giving more upward bias for the AUD, we favour moves towards a retest of the long-term resistance at 0.5035 (1.9860).
The current interbank midrate is: AUDGBP 0.4975 GBPAUD 2.0100
The interbank range this week has been: AUDGBP 0.4959- 0.5001 GBPAUD 1.9996- 2.0165
Current Level: 2.0188
Support: 2.0050
Resistance: 2.0350
Last week's range: 2.0060 - 2.0232
The Australian Dollar (AUD) posted a fresh 6-month high Monday of 0.5707 (1.7520) against the Euro (EUR) before settling around 0.5690 (1.7570). Markets are starting to position for this afternoon’s RBA rate decision which is predicted to be a “hold” at 3.60%. Governor Bollock should be rather hawkish in her statement with chances she may hint at a new “tightening” cycle in 2026. Euro growth has been revised upto 0.3% for Q3 with stronger wage growth showing the economy has been resilient. This may lead the ECB to pull back on near term easing. We are picking a retest of the recent high around 0.5790 (1.7270).
Current Level: 0.5690
Support: 0.5640
Resistance: 0.5715
Last week's range: 0.5630 - 0.5706
Current Level: 1.7574
Support: 1.7500
Resistance: 1.7730
Last week's range: 1.7523 - 1.7763
