Momentum to the topside in the New Zealand Dollar (NZD), US Dollar (USD) cross looks to have slowed with price rebounding off 0.6060 late last week to open Tuesday at 0.5970. We think the odds of a return to 0.6060 are diminishing over the medium-term forecast as the greenback gains strength based on tariff results. US Equity markets closed at all time highs but have forgotten to include the kiwi in the bull run. We could see a little NZD buyer interest and a potential retest of 0.6000 this week before an extension lower towards the 0.5900 level.
Current Level: 0.5962
Support: 0.5910
Resistance: 0.6100
Weekly Range: 0.5937 - 0.6059
The New Zealand Dollar (NZD), Australian Dollar (AUD) cross has dropped into consolidation mode over the past week pivoting around the 0.9160 (1.0920) area after retreating off 0.9100 (1.0990) mid last week. The 0.9175 (1.0900) area should hold this week with the view of the AUD improving back to 0.9100 (1.1000). Australian CPI q/q prints tomorrow and is predicted to show a fall from 2.4% in the second quarter ending June to 2.2%. This may alert the RBA to cut interest rates next month in the face of solid employment data rolling in.
NZD/AUD
Current Level: 0.9154
Support: 0.9090
Resistance: 0.9175
Weekly Range: 0.9126 - 0.9173
AUD/NZD
Current Level: 1.0917
Support: 1.0900
Resistance: 1.1000
Weekly Range: 1.0901- 1.0957
A week of gains by the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) against the British Pound (GBP) saw a close around 0.4480 (2.2320) a 6-week high. Monday’s action shifted price back to 0.4450 (2.2460) before continuing its run up back to 0.4480 (2.2320) as the GBP was sold off. We have nothing on the economic docket this week through to next weeks NZ employment data and the BoE cash rate announcement where markets are predicting a cut to 4.0%. Long term resistance sits at the top of the current range at 0.4500 (2.2230), we expect this to hold over the week.
NZD/GBP
Current Level: 0.4464
Support: 0.4405
Resistance: 0.4500
Weekly Range: 0.4407 - 0.4482
GBP/NZD
Current Level: 2.2401
Support: 2.2230
Resistance: 2.2700
Weekly Range: 2.2311 - 2.2691
The Euro (EUR) gave back last week’s gains from 0.5115 (1.9550) retreating over 1.0% off the weekly open to trade into Tuesday around 0.5160 (1.9380). The EU have reached a deal on “most” EU exports confirming a 15% tariff will be applied to EU goods into US markets. The EU have offered concessions – buying 750B in US energy and investing 600B in the US. The deal has been widely criticised as “lopsided”. The Euro was hit hard post headlines but could stabilise supported by inflation forecasts at 2.0% for 2025. With an RBNZ cut on the cards at their August 20 meeting we don’t predict the kiwi to make huge moves higher.
NZD/EURO
Current Level: 0.5143
Support: 0.5075
Resistance: 0.5200
Weekly Range: 0.5081 - 0.5156
EURO/NZD
Current Level: 1.9443
Support: 1.9240
Resistance: 1.9700
Weekly Range: 1.9394 - 1.9678
The Australian Dollar (AUD) initially gained late last week against the US Dollar (USD) to 0.6625 post the US/Japan trade deal but has been flogged since in the aftermath of the EU/US trade deal. The upcoming second quarter CPI report tomorrow is expected to show inflation easing to 2.2% and signal the RBA to cut their interest rate in August. Governor Bullock downplayed aggressive cuts highlighting a solid jobs market. We await signs now of slowing inflation or weaker economic data to reassess. The Fed meet Thursday morning and will most likely keep their interest rate unchanged at 4.50%.
Current Level: 0.6512
Support: 0.6475
Resistance: 0.6600
Weekly Range: 0.6497 - 0.6624
The Australian Dollar (AUD) continues to extend its bull mood higher against the British Pound (GBP) from the late June low of 0.4760 (2.1010) to post 0.4890 (2.0460) in morning trade. The Bank of England (BoE) should cut their interest rate from 4.25% to 4.00% on the 7th of August and will shrink its 558B holdings of govt bonds in the policy statement. On this week’s calendar is Aussie CPI y/y which is expected to ease from 2.4% to 2.2% in quarter 2, anything higher than 2.2% may rally the AUD.
AUD/GBP
Current Level: 0.4876
Support: 0.4760
Resistance: 0.4900
Weekly Range: 0.4826 - 0.4889
GBP/AUD
Current Level: 2.0508
Support: 2.0400
Resistance: 2.1000
Weekly Range: 2.0450 - 2.0721
The Australian Dollar (AUD) improved Monday off 0.5580 (1.7920) to post 0.5630 (1.7770) in early Tuesday trading making back last week’s losses. The European Union have agreed a tariff deal with US administration yesterday. 15% of most EU products will be tariffed with steel and aluminium facing quotes. The EU have offered concessions to soften the deal which include 750B in US energy and will invest 600B in the US. The deal appears to be a one sided but until further numbers are confirmed its speculation. A boost in EU inflation could be supportive to the currency in the long run with growth forecasts in 2025 steady.
AUD/EURO
Current Level: 0.5617
Support: 0.5525
Resistance: 0.5640
Weekly Range: 0.5563 - 0.5634
EURO/AUD
Current Level: 1.7803
Support: 1.7730
Resistance: 1.8100
Weekly Range: 1.7748 - 1.7973