The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) has pivoted off the key level around 0.5770 Monday against the US Dollar (USD) as risk market sentiment improves. The kiwi was back at 0.5870 in early Tuesday trade before settling at the 0.5850 zone. Geopolitical uncertainty is still on market minds as investors remain weary of the situation in Iran. The Dow and S&P both rallied in overnight trading on optimistic market sentiment buoyed by strong earnings reports. The Fed are not expected to raise rates from 3.75% when they meet Thursday morning before NZ quarterly GDP prints when numbers are predicted to dip from 1.1% to 0.4% ending December 2025. The NZD/USD cross is still trading in a bear trend; we expect this to hold this week.
Current Level: 0.5846
Support: 0.5720
Resistance: 0.6000
Last week's range: 0.5761- 0.5963
The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) reached a low of 0.8250 (1.2120) Friday against the Australian Dollar (AUD) a fresh 13 year low. Monday's price action has seen the cross consolidate around 0.8290 (1.2065) levels as it takes a breather. With the RBA widely expected to hike interest rates today to 4.10% we could get further strength in the AUD over the day. Most moves have been baked into current levels, but we will certainly get volatility post release. Later in the week Australian unemployment data prints with 4.1% expected. Spikes towards 0.8350 (1.1980) should be considered for buyers of AUD given current AUD momentum.
NZD/AUD
Current Level: 0.8277
Support: 0.8030
Resistance: 0.8375
Last week's range: 0.8251- 0.8425
AUD/NZD
Current Level: 1.2074
Support: 1.1940
Resistance: 1.2450
Last week's range: 1.1869- 1.2119
The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) slipped to 0.4367 (2.2900) against the British Pound to close the week but has reversed losses Monday to 0.4405 (2.2700) regaining the edge amid a bout of "risk on" sentiment. Data this week comes in the form of the Bank of England (BoE) Official Bank Rate which is expected to remain at 3.75% in a 2-7 vote. The central bank will be under pressure to raise rates sooner than later as energy prices affect inflation forecasts due to the conflict in Iran. The repricing of interest rates has been dramatic for the UK as they have been more exposed than the eurozone. We think the kiwi will continue to travel lower this month.
NZD/GBP
Current Level: 0.4393
Support: 0.4365
Resistance: 0.4465
Last week's range: 0.4364- 0.4431
GBP/NZD
Current Level: 2.2763
Support: 2.2400
Resistance: 2.2900
Last week's range: 2.2564- 2.2911
The New Zealand Dollar (NZD), Euro (EUR) cross has continued to trade in a tight range of late, coming off 0.5050 (1.9790) and back to 0.5095 (1.9630) Monday the pair making haste for the top of end of recent moves at 0.5120 (1.9520). A daily break above this key area- the August 2025 high, could cement a change in momentum and further topside for the kiwi. Meanwhile the euro remains trapped between growth outlook and inflated energy prices due to importing needs. The ECB might now factor in a hike mid-year if Iran factors continue, certainly analysts have been more hawkish of late. For now, the ECB will hold at 2.15% when they meet on Friday.
NZD/EUR
Current Level: 0.5085
Support: 0.5050
Resistance: 0.5130
Last week's range: 0.5058- 0.5125
EUR/NZD
Current Level: 1.9665
Support: 1.9500
Resistance: 1.9800
Last week's range: 1.9511- 1.9767
The Australian Dollar (AUD) snapped off 0.6970 levels at the end of the week to push back above 0.7000 against the US Dollar (USD) printing 0.7070 into late NY sessions. Markets widely expect the RBA to deliver its second consecutive hike later today when the RBA meet and raise rates to 4.10%. Rising energy prices and Iran tensions are expected to push Australian inflation back above 4.0% over the following months as the central bank keep to a tightening schedule. Later in the week the Federal Reserve also meet but will hold interest rates at 3.50% for now with predictions of aggressive rate hikes later in the year. The next target is 0.7150 the June 2022 high.
Current Level: 0.7061
Support: 0.7000
Resistance: 0.7150
Last week's range: 0.6955- 0.7186
The Australian Dollar (AUD) continues to clock higher lows followed by higher highs against the British Pound (GBP) with price reaching 0.5280 (1.8940) at the weekly close before continuing its upward path to 0.5310 (1.8840) into Tuesday. The RBA will hike interest rates later today from 3.85% to 4.10% the second straight hike as inflation outlook starts to rise based on Iran tensions. The Aussie has blown through resistance at 0.5285 (1.8925) and now targets 0.5360 (1.8650) the December 2023 high. Today's RBA policy statement will be key.
AUD/GBP
Current Level: 0.5308
Support: 0.5280
Resistance: 0.5360
Last week's range: 0.5231- 0.5350
GBP/AUD
Current Level: 1.8839
Support: 1.8650
Resistance: 1.8950
Last week's range: 1.8691- 1.9114
Both the European Central Bank (ECB) and Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) have interest rate policy announcements this week. First up is the RBA today who are widely expected to hike rates from 3.85% to 4.10%. The Australian Dollar (AUD) starts its 13th consecutive week in control against the Euro (EUR), with the ECB expected to hold at 2.15% later in the week it's hard to see this changing. A retest of the zone around 0.6240 (1.6020) is our pick, a breakthrough here and we have no resistance all the way to 0.6850 (1.46) the April 2017 high. More than anything else big picture moves will also be based on geopolitical decisions.
AUD/EUR
Current Level: 0.6144
Support: 0.6025
Resistance: 0.6200
Last week's range: 0.6044- 0.6201
EUR/AUD
Current Level: 1.6276
Support: 1.6130
Resistance: 1.6600
Last week's range: 1.6126- 1.6544
The Direct FX app has been updated to include currency charts and the highs/lows for the past 24 hours. Along with our regular market commentary, the Direct FX app also has live indicative market mid rates and a currency conversion calculator. Use the relevant link below to take you directly to the version for you, or simply search for it in the App store / Play store.
