• It was a rough day for the Japanese Yen (JPY) with the currency falling over 1.0% as the Nikkei plunges 6.0% Monday which has wiped out all gains of 2026. With the strait of Hormuz closed this is a massive problem for Japan.
• The ASX has closed over 4.0% - this is the worse day of trading since March 2020. US equity markets were also down about 1.0%.
• The closure of the strait of Hormuz has led to Crude Oil settling around 120.00 a barrel Monday. This is the biggest 1-day rally in history. With no end in sight as Trump doubles down on continuing his bombing campaign the strait may be closed for some time.
• Gold extends above 5,400 Monday as market turn extremely risk averse.
• US Non-Farm Payrolls came in -92,000 in February, a massive miss against expectations of 55,000 predictions. Also to rub salt into the wound numbers from the previous 2 months were revised down a combined 69,000. We are sticking to our earlier predictions for Feb rate cuts in June and July.
• The Swiss Franc (CHF) was the strongest currency last week while the weakest performing currency was the Japanese Yen (JPY)
The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) has retraced all last week’s losses off 0.5850 levels trading back to 0.5930 against the US Dollar (USD). The war in Iran enters the second week as rising geopolitical tensions in the Middle East rages on. Amid a risk off tone the kiwi has done well in the aftermath of Friday’s poor Non-Farm Payroll read. Employment in the US declined 92,000 in February sharply missing expectations, also of note the previous 2 months were also revised lower. No NZ data publishing over the week, focus will be big picture themes.
Current Level: 0.5920
Support: 0.5850
Resistance: 0.6100
Last week's range: 0.5835- 0.5993
The New Zealand Dollar (NZD), Australian Dollar (AUD) cross will take a breather from economic releases this week, however we expect further continuation towards the March 3rd low at 0.8350 (1.1980). Certainly, with the RBA looking to hike next week’s interest rate instead of June this will keep the Aussie looking attractive. Sharply higher Crude and fuel prices have changed inflation expectations higher in the short to medium term. Beyond a hike next week, we expect another 25-point rise at the June policy meeting. Buyers of AUD should consider at these levels based on further strength expected in the AUD.
Current Level: 0.8379 (1.1928)
Support: 0.8350 (1.1870)
Resistance: 0.8425 (1.1980)
Last week's range: 0.8350- 0.8455 (1.1825- 1.1975)
The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) has outperformed against the British Pound (GBP) off the weekly open trading to 0.4420 (2.2640) into Tuesday as market risk sentiment improves. Last week’s moves in the cross were seen as one of the most erratic in years with absolutely no read on direction at all. The Bank of England (BoE) look to have repriced their rate cut intentions with predictions they will not cut in 2026 as prices soar in the prolonged Iran conflict. With no economic data on the docket this week the pair will be led by geopolitical cues.
Current Level: 0.4407 (2.2691)
Support: 0.4385 (2.2500)
Resistance: 0.4445 (2.2800)
Last week's range: 0.4390- 0.4459 (2.2425- 2.2775)
The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) sits at the top of the current 2-month range against the Euro (EUR) opening strong off Monday’s open to 0.5100 (1.9600) levels. The Euro declining close to the yearly high on rising geopolitical tensions. Markets remain jittery on incoming headlines while the Eurozone is pricing in at least one rate rise in 2026. Looking ahead we have energy price spikes and stagnation fears which could cap EUR progress.
Current Level: 0.5092 (1.9638)
Support: 0.5050 (1.9560)
Resistance: 0.5110 (1.9800)
Last week's range: 0.5055- 0.5113 (1.9558- 1.9775)
The Australian Dollar (AUD) surged off 0.6960 levels Monday against the US Dollar (USD) reaching 0.7080 as I write. Global risk sentiment weakened its grip amid global geopolitical tensions and sharp rises in oil prices. A repricing of the RBA outlook looks to be partly responsible for the short rally in the Aussie with expectations the central bank may raise rates earlier than predicted at their March 17 meeting instead of June. Growing inflation risks from higher energy prices are having a massive impact. With the AUD/USD back over 0.7000 the next target is the prior high at 0.7150 the July 2022 level.
Current Level: 0.7065
Support: 0.7000
Resistance: 0.7130
Last week's range: 0.6944- 0.7122
Last week’s risk off tone sent the Australian Dollar (AUD) lower to 0.5235 (1.9100) against the British Pound (GBP) the first week since early December 2025 the currency has traded lower. This week’s another story as the AUD has regained momentum trading back to 0.5265 (1.8990) this morning as the RBA reprices rate rise expectations from June to March (next week). The Bank of England (BoE) is not expected to cut rates this year instead hold until 2027 with the Israel -US war on Iran still ongoing inflating the cost of energy and ultimately inflation forecasts. A retest of the high at 0.5320 (1.8800) the December 2023 high looks favourable.
Current Level: 0.5259 (1.9015)
Support: 0.5235 (1.8900)
Resistance: 0.5290 (1.9100)
Last week's range: 0.5231- 0.5318 (1.8801- 1.9114)
The Euro (EUR) has extended its decline against the Australian Dollar (AUD) Monday clocking 1.6410 (0.6095), the Aussie entering its 12th straight week of gains. Markets remain sensitive to geopolitical tensions with investors now fully pricing in at least one rate hike in 2026 despite the ECB suggesting they are in a good place economically. Eurozone fourth quarter growth slowed but has been supported by stronger domestic demand and trade tariffs. However, the aggressive EUR selling continues with the cross trading at a pivotal zone around 0.6100 (1.6400), a drop below here could suggest a bigger move towards 1.6000 (0.6250).
Current Level: 0.6076 (1.6458)
Support: 0.6030 (1.6400)
Resistance: 0.6100 (1.6560)
Last week's range: 0.5986- 0.6089 (1.6421- 1.6704)
The Direct FX app has been updated to include currency charts and the highs/lows for the past 24 hours. Along with our regular market commentary, the Direct FX app also has live indicative market mid rates and a currency conversion calculator. Use the relevant link below to take you directly to the version for you, or simply search for it in the App store / Play store.
