• Geopolitical climate keeps risk products capped as the war in the Middle East enters its 6th day. Hezbollah has launched strikes into northern Israel in response to the attacks on Iran. Trump says Iran is contacting them to request guidance on negotiating a deal.
• Gold, Silver and Crude Oil (81.00) have all risen in value as the safe-haven demand increases.
• Equity markets have tracked lower overnight with the DOW dropping over 1.6%
• Recent Fed CPI data has raised concerns over whether the Federal Reserve have finished fighting inflation.
• ECB’s Guindos has made the remark that the US-Iran war will be a short conflict.
• The Canadian Dollar (CAD) has been the strongest currency this week while the weakest performing currency has been the Euro (EUR)
The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) kicked back off 0.8350 (1.1980) midweek against the Australian Dollar (AUD) to post 0.8425 (1.1870) into Friday amid market middle Eastern uncertainty. Overall, it’s another week of NZD weakness with further central bank divergence causing havoc for the kiwi as the cross slips deeper into multiyear territory. Australian GDP q/q came in slightly above expectations at 0.8% compared to 0.7% for the fourth quarter of 2025 which printed at 0.5%. This will only cement the RBA view of a tightening policy brief.
The current interbank midrate is: NZDAUD 0.8404 AUDNZD 1.1890
The interbank range this week has been: NZDAUD 0.8347- 0.8430 AUDNZD 1.1862- 1.1980
The Australian Dollar (AUD) is set to break lower on the week after 6 weeks of gains against the US Dollar (USD) with Friday’s prices pivoting around 0.7000 compared to the open of 0.7115. Incoming data has been mixed with trade surplus narrowing and consumer spending lower than forecast. Geopolitical headlines may drive the AUD lower towards 0.6900 which may offer opportunities for USD sellers ahead of the mid-March policy meeting. Setbacks should be well supported ahead of 0.6900 in the medium term. Non-Farm Payroll prints overnight and will offer up the usual vol swings before next week’s US CPI y/y key data.
The current interbank midrate is: AUDUSD 0.7027
The interbank range this week has been: AUDUSD 0.6943- 0.7122
The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) lost territory over the week against the US Dollar (USD) retreating below 0.5900 early this morning to clock 0.5870. Middle East geopolitical uncertainty has taken a toll on the NZD, which could signal we may be on the verge of a bigger drop. Support at 0.5840 held overnight but for how long. It should be small shifts through to tomorrow's Non-Farm Payroll where the number of employed people over the past week is expected to plumet creating possible upside potential for the kiwi.
The current interbank midrate is: NZDUSD 0.5909
The interbank range this week has been: NZDUSD 0.5834- 0.5993
