NZD to USD – US Dollar to New Zealand Dollar
When converting NZD to USD, or United States dollars to New Zealand dollars (USD to NZD), with Direct FX, you will save a significant amount of money. Our wholesale currency exchange rates for money transfers are significantly more competitive than bank foreign exchange rates. Being Australasian based, we specialise in knowing what drives NZD/USD currency conversion rates.
NZD to USD Overview: The US is New Zealand’s second largest export market and third in import terms. This had made the NZD to USD exchange rate a focus of our money transfer team for many years. The NZD/USD exchange rate can be volatile at times, especially during peaks and troughs of the cash rate cycles. The NZD is considered a “growth” currency, and the USD a “safe haven” currency. Our team will help you interpret market conditions when you make your currency transfer.
|Historical Ranges:||1 year||5 years||10 years|
|NZD/USD||.6424 – .7556||.6225 – .8834||.4893 – .8841|
Current Official Cash Rates:
Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ): 1.00% US Federal Reserve (FED): 1.75% to 2.00%
We provide insight into the NZ Dollar and US Dollar (NZD/USD) currency pair by reporting trends, market news and providing relative currency charts.
The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) broke through the prior high at 0.62175 midweek on its way to post a 3 March high of 0.6230 against the US Dollar (USD). The NZ Financial stability Report confirmed the NZ economy was positioned well to recover from the grip of coronavirus in due time. Seems the RBNZ are very optimistic of a domestic recovery assisted by the govt’s wage subsidy scheme and other factors. The move to alert level 1 has been too slow and will affect growth long term. Expect the kiwi to plunge below 0.6000 in the coming weeks as risk sentiment drops and the coronavirus effects on global growth hits home. For now the NZD struggles to push past 0.6230 and could drift lower towards the close.
The current interbank midrate is: NZDUSD 0.6190
The interbank range this week has been: NZDUSD 0.6082- 0.6231
The New Zealand dollar (NZD) continues to trade within a 0.5925-0.6170 band with initial support at the 0.6000 level. Support remains firm above the 0.6000 level as the economy gradually reopens and the global perception that we have Covid-19 under control remains. However, once the wage subsidies expire and unemployment data starts to tick higher, the NZD should struggle to hold levels above the 0.6100 level with any break of the 0.5925 mark targeting a pull back to the 0.5850 level.
Current Level: 0.6104
Last Weeks Range: 0.5935-0.6155
The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) continues to be well supported on dips against the US Dollar (USD) heading into the weekly close. The Wednesday daily close above 0.6140 was significant from the prior high around mid-March and shows the willingness of risk buyers of the kiwi to push the pair into fresh territory. Retail Sales printed up on expectations of -1.5% to -0.7% for April boosting the NZD post release. US jobs numbers had no impact on the cross after printing last night with -2.44M filing for unemployment ending the prior week. After reversing off 0.5920 levels early in the week the cross looks to have met resistance around 0.6150 and has consolidated Friday in the 0.6130 zone. Risks ahead are that the pair could drop back below the trend line under 0.6000 however for now bulls remain in control.
The current interbank midrate is: NZDUSD 0.6116
The interbank range this week has been: NZDUSD 0.5929- 0.6158
Risk markets started the week on the front foot with the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) reversing off last week’s low at 0.5915 against the US Dollar (USD) to smash through 0.6000 psychological level to make a high Tuesday of 0.6045. Equity markets and risk associated products are all higher Monday with Fed Chairman Powell’s ongoing support in the fight against coronavirus and a possible vaccine from American Biotechnology company Moderna showing positive early results from its first 45 human trial cases. All cases have developed crucial coronavirus antibodies. US Retail Sales for April printed worse than expected at -16.4% (-12.0% expected) with any risk off mood superseded by vaccine headlines. Topside momentum in the kiwi is extremely limited with anything around 0.6150 looking very overbought. NZ Retail Sales prints Friday.
Last Weeks Range: 0.5921-0.6122
The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) lost its mojo during trading this week coming off 0.6140 against the US Dollar (USD) falling below the pivotal physiological level at 0.6000 to 0.5960. Straight off the bat the kiwi was on the backfoot when ANZ Business Confidence printed poor, followed by Wednesday’s RBNZ key monetary policy and rate announcement. The benchmark rate remains unchanged at 0.25% but Orr’s comments around negative rates towards the end of the year spooked markets as investors exited the kiwi. Orr increased the QE package to 60B which was expected but his overall dovish outlook didn’t go unnoticed. The decline in the kiwi was also boosted by broad based flight to safe haven assets as Federal Reserve’s Powell pushed back on negative rates at the detriment of President Trump’s displeasure. Powell spoke to a prolonged economic downturn and a slower recovery than first thought. To make matters worse it seems markets are bracing for US and China less than amicable relations ahead. US employment numbers for last week were the only positive with 2.9M filing for unemployment- these numbers are trending down w/w. With the cross hovering around 0.6000 we expect a little support for the kiwi prior to the weekly close.
The current interbank midrate is: NZDUSD 0.5998
The interbank range this week has been: NZDUSD 0.5955- 0.6155
Risk currencies turned down Tuesday with the New Zealand Dollar dropping from 0.6140 levels to 0.6050 against the US Dollar (USD) midday. Better than predicted Non-Farm Payroll together with the Chinese Central Bank saying they would use more powerful monetary methods to combat coronavirus took risk crosses on a bull run last week until topside momentum ran dry. Key on the calendar this week is tomorrow’s RBNZ cash rate announcement with no change expected from 0.25% but further stimulus could be on the agenda as the NZ economy battles to come back from coronavirus. Later in the week the NZ government will announce its 2020 Annual Budget. Expectations are that the govt will largely put aside priorities this year, outlined late last year as the country concentrates on providing building blocks to consumers in response to plans for an economic recovery. The kiwi is trading at the bottom of a bullish channel from late March with downside for the moment limited.
Current Level: 0.6057
Last Weeks Range: 0.5995-0.6155
The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) rose to 0.6100 levels this week against the US Dollar (USD) coming off the back of several factors. Risk sentiment improved yesterday on positive and somewhat surprising Chinese data with Trade Balance printing at 318B compared to the 6.4B expected along with equity markets posting gains with US indices improving over 1% overnight. Data released from Wednesday’s NZ Unemployment figures showed a jump of 5,000 filed in the March quarter to take the unemployment rate to 4.2% from 4.0% slightly better than the expected 4.4%. Clearly these first quarter figures only partially reflect the overall economic fallout from coronavirus with expectations of employment and growth to rise significantly over the second and third periods of 2020. We expect setbacks to be well supported over the coming days as the kiwi makes a run for last week’s high at 0.6175
The current interbank midrate is: NZDUSD 0.6091
The interbank range this week has been: NZDUSD 0.5993- 0.6099
The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) optimism continues to push the kiwi higher against a struggling US Dollar (USD). Last week’s early surge to 0.6175 was a fresh 7 week high before bears sold the kiwi on a lack of appetite for risk down to 0.6050. The bearish tone continued Monday before things improved Tuesday with price back at 0.6050. NZ publishes unemployment numbers for the first quarter tomorrow before the US non-farm payroll numbers publish Friday. These two results will mark two vastly different results, although the NZ unemployment rate is expected to rise to 4.4% from 4.0% it’s not a shadow on the dire print expected in the US when the April unemployment numbers print at a staggering 21M with the unemployment rate to jump towards 16.0% from 4.4% for March. It’s hard to know what impact this will have on the currency cross but based on 4 April (March results) this should weaken the kiwi.
Current Level: 0.6054
Last Weeks Range: 0.5992-0.6175
The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) trades at 0.6055 against the US Dollar (USD) at the time of writing early Tuesday. After a short stint testing the 0.6000 key level Monday the kiwi has been well supported outperforming the big dollar. NZ coronavirus numbers have continued to print lower in the past few days with level 3 lockdown now in place, markets are feeling optimistic of the overall outlook post coronavirus elimination. The federal funds rate is announced tomorrow with no forecast for any change from the current -0.25%. Federal Reserve easing has been working over the previous weeks with massive assistance to credit markets. The US has a way to go to control coronavirus with daily numbers and deaths still high which could weigh on overall risk. Topside bias in the NZD we think is limited to 0.6100, buyers of USD should consider at current levels.
Current Level: 0.6082
Last Weeks Range: 0.5910-0.6087
The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) has stayed within recent ranges over the week against the US Dollar (USD) with investors unsure of big dollar direction. The US released a worse than expected jobless claims report for the week ending April 18 with a further 4.4M people filing for unemployment. This was seen by some as a positive result with recent weekly numbers perhaps passing the peak. A total of 26M people in the US have lost their jobs in the past 5 weeks, which is approximately 16% of the total workforce, as a result the jobs created since 2010 have been completely wiped out. The House has finally passed a 484B small business package relief bill with the Dems and Republicans finally agreeing albeit probably two weeks late. With price around the 0.6000 zone we expect support in the kiwi to continue through to 0.6100 in the short term.
The current interbank midrate is: NZDUSD 0.5990
The interbank range this week has been: NZDUSD 0.5909- 0.6090
The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) has continued last week’s momentum into Tuesday travelling to 0.6090 against the US Dollar (USD). NZ will exit level 4 lockdown on the 27th April confirmed yesterday into a lesser relaxed level 3 scenario which boosted support for the kiwi. Overnight crude prices hit a 21 year low and closed below zero as China stockpiles cheap product. This took risk assets lower, the NZD retracing earlier moves to 0.6030. Investors are still extremely cautious with many countries looking at easing lockdown/movement restrictions linking to possible second wave outbreaks. Covid-19 remains the driver of risk as we head into another Friday US unemployment number. We expect a continuation of the recent higher highs and higher low pattern with a break above 0.6130 in the coming days.
Current Level: 0.6024
Last Weeks Range: 0.5922-0.6128
The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) is holding off support at 0.6040 this week after rising to 0.6130 early today against the US Dollar (USD) continuing its two week bullish move from 0.5850 early April. In a press conference earlier today President Trump announced he was pulling his funding to the W.H.O while he investigates its performance in minimising the coronavirus. Fed’s Evans commented this morning saying “many many things must go right for the US economy to recover quickly from coronavirus”, he said the economic downturn will be deep, and we could see “unimaginable bad data for the second quarter”. Its corporate earnings season in the USA with Wells Fargo kicking off with dramatic declines to profit and high loan failures suffered during coronavirus. Goldman Sachs expects the biggest decline in manufacturing output since the Second World War. For now the kiwi has gained support on risk on cues and solid Chinese Trade data with the NZ govt preparing to add fresh stimulus to contain a potential rise to unemployment. We see the NZD rising further to test early March’s 0.6200
The current interbank midrate is: NZDUSD 0.6075
The interbank range this week has been: NZDUSD 0.5940- 0.6130
The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) has performed well against the US Dollar pushing up to 0.5960 Tuesday with improved risk sentiment. Coronavirus numbers out of key places such as Italy, Spain and crucially New York look to be on the improve and encouraging. US equities rose over 7% overnight on better optimism. What’s interesting is over 180 people per day are dying at home in NY City are not being counted in the official numbers, undercounting the total victims. President Trump has reportedly come to an arrangement with 3M for them to provide 166 million N95 respirator masks to be provided to healthcare workers over the coming months. Wow, that’s a lot of masks. New Zealand Treasury announced the syndicated tap of the 1.5% coupon 15 May 2031 nominal Bond. The Treasury expects to sell at least 2.0Billion of the 15 May 2031 bond. The Bond has been well received by offshore investors and should hold the kiwi up for a decent period going forward. The NZD should be well supported on dips and should hold above 0.5860 for a while.
Current Level: 0.5938
Last Weeks Range: 0.5843-0.6037
The economic fallout from the coronavirus is painting an ugly picture of pessimism across the planet. The disturbing outbreak in the US and the death tolls in France, Spain and Germany have extended lockdowns are all contributing to the poor mood. The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) traded 120 points lower than the weekly open price of 0.6030 at 0.5910. Finance Minister Robertson commented saying government debt will rise to well over 25% of GDP has not helped the kiwi cause. Overnight the number of Americans who filed for unemployment hit an all time high record of 6.648Million double the number from last week’s 3,600,000. This is an unprecedented 10Million people in two weeks. Non-Farm Payroll tonight is expected to also be an ugly result with numbers expected to be a contraction of 100,000 from the February 273,000 jobs added. If this happens it will increase the nation’s unemployment from 3.5% to 3.8%. It’s possible this data is already factored into the NZDUSD curve but if not the kiwi could take on water post release as investors buy the safer USD.
The current interbank midrate is: NZDUSD 0.5915
The interbank range this week has been: NZDUSD 0.5876- 0.6066
US President Trump has said a nationwide lockdown (stay home) order is “pretty unlikely”- wow. Price hovers just off the weekly open in the New Zealand Dollar (NZD), US Dollar (USD) pair at 0.6020 with a whopping 5.6% gain last week by the kiwi. However, from current levels topside bias is limited. Fibonacci key levels show that the cross will bounce lower off resistance at 0.6040 retracing moves back towards 0.5850 in the coming days/weeks. ANZ business confidence prints today with no one expecting a positive number. The release wont shift price much but if anything could put the NZD under a little pressure. NY has reported 253 more coronavirus deaths with the FDA given emergency approval to distribute millions of doses of the antimalarial drug chloroquine to US hospitals. The FDA says it’s worth the risk of trying an unproven treatment to seriously ill people. Clients who require USD, these levels represent good buying.
Current Level: 0.6022
Last Weeks Range: 0.5657-0.6068
The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) has risen to 0.5960 this week coming off a low of 0.5590 against the US Dollar (USD). Investors however do remain watchful despite the approval of the Senate’s 2.2Billion stimulus package. The vote was unanimous as it could have been at 96-0 which would supply billions of dollars in credit to struggling industries. Direct cash payments to Americans also. Covid-19 risks continue to disrupt the global economy with huge rises in cases. The most significant data release published for some time printed early this morning – US Unemployment claims which didn’t disappoint. Numbers of people filing for the unemployment benefit last week were 3,283,000 well over the estimated 1,648,000 expected. For now if you are in need of USD please consider these levels as fundamental currency bias tracks the kiwi lower.
The current interbank midrate is: NZDUSD 0.5952
The interbank range this week has been: NZDUSD 0.5598- 0.5982
From 11.59 Wednesday the NZ alert level will lift from level 3 to level 4 which means all non-essential businesses will close at that time including bars restaurants, cinemas and playgrounds. Only essential services will remain open such as grocery providers and chemists. Today at 1.00pm the govt confirmed 40 new cases of the virus including “potential” positive results which takes the NZ total to 155 confirmed. Most cases are linked to overseas travel or known sources however 4 are being treated as community transmissions. The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) continues to struggle against the US Dollar (USD) amid bouts of bullishness, this week’s push higher from the low of 0.5585 sees the kiwi regaining support above 0.5750. This momentum will only be temporary with the overwhelming bearish bias remaining for some time yet. Certainly good levels for buyers of USD to consider before the kiwi takes another turn lower.
Last Weeks Range:
News this morning from Phil Goff: He has closed Auckland Libraries, public swimming pools and other community facilities for at least a fortnight as the country’s coronavirus infections increase. This sent the kiwi spiralling south once again- seems to be a trend developing here (sarcastic) to 0.5620. This follows last night’s announcement by PM Ardern that the NZ borders would close to all non-residents – rallying the NZD off 0.5470 to 0.5913 over several hours into early Friday. US Republicans are weighing up “helicopter” money to individuals to the tune of $1200 each with President Trump saying he is considering one off grants to US States as needed to fight coronavirus. Buyers of USD should be considering levels above 0.5600 as the kiwi falls further into the abyss.
The current interbank midrate is: NZDUSD 0.5735
The interbank range this week has been: NZDUSD 0.5469- 0.6141
The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) remains relatively solid during Monday, trading around the 0.6050 mark against the US Dollar (USD). A short trip to 0.6120 overnight saw sellers of the kiwi return and take the pair lower. Both NZ and USD central banks announced economic coronavirus measures with the RBNZ cutting rates to an unprecedented 0.25% the lowest it has ever been from 1.00% in a surprise meeting Monday. The Federal Reserve also cut their benchmark cash rate to 0.25% from 1.25% a massive 1.0% to keep the economy flowing. The cuts are designed to prevent a credit crunch and financial meltdown seen last during the 2008 GFC a decade ago. Ultimately this will mitigate strains on any supply of credit to households and businesses. Trump commented this morning that he recommends gatherings of no more than 10 people but has not yet closed the border, we suspect this will happen within the next day or so. At 2pm today the NZ govt will announce a significant fiscal package. Downside bias will remain for some time in the pair but 0.6000 holds decent phycological support. It’s only a matter of time before this is tested.
Current Level: 0.6050
Last Weeks Range: 0.5984-0.6437
The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) finally broke below recent support around the 0.6200 level against the US Dollar (USD) as the coronavirus crisis intensifies worldwide. Fear and panic was the theme into Thursday, as extreme measures are taken around the globe to contain the outbreak. Investors were initially spooked by President Trump’s travel ban, restricting flights from Europe over the next 30 days. This is beginning to feel a lot worse than the financial crisis of 2008. We are literally unsure on a daily basis how this virus will roll, anything could happen. Downside bias will remain for some time in the cross – I fully expect to be pricing buyers of USD in the high 0.50’s soon.
The current interbank midrate is: NZDUSD 0.6271
The interbank range this week has been: NZDUSD 0.6030- 0.6440
The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) was pushed out of bed Monday falling to 0.6055 in what was said to be a “flash crash” one off event. Equity markets and coronavirus updates had finally fatigued the markets with most indices posting heavy losses over the weekend as coronavirus infections crack the ton. Crude prices also caused a heavy risk off tone with OPEC and Russia not agreeing on production slashes to alleviate declining demand. The Saudi’s stepped in offering massive discounted prices and ramping up production. The price of Crude dropped over 21% and sent currency markets in a flurry. The good news for buyers of USD is that price during overnight sessions Monday returned to pre-crash levels at 0.6350 and extended to 0.6450 briefly before settling around 0.6340 again. From here it’s anyone’s guess as to direction. We will see a heavy dose of volatility over the rest of the week making it exceptionally hard to call. We may get direction cues today when RBNZ’s Adrian Ore speaks on unconventional monetary policy.
Current Level: 0.6333
Last Weeks Range: 0.6006-0.6446
The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) has had its best week yet in 2020 posting a fresh high of 0.6333 against the US Dollar (USD) a far cry from last week’s close of 0.6190. The defiant kiwi has hung in there surprisingly, trading around the 0.6300 level midday Friday. Signs that the RBNZ were likely to bring forward their next policy meeting went by the by with 25th March date still anticipated where the central bank is expected to cut rates from the current 1.00% to boost coronavirus economic woes. The Federal Reserve cut rates to 1.25% from 1.75% saying the country’s economy remains strong but global virus fears will start to weigh on the economy in first quarter growth. The kiwi surges higher post cut reversing all of the prior week losses. From here things still have a downward bias with the massive uncertainty with coronavirus. We believe it’s only a matter of time before we see the cross retest the 0.6200 low.
The current interbank midrate is: NZDUSD 0.6314
The interbank range this week has been: NZDUSD 0.6193- 0.6333
The New Zealand dollar (NZD) has suffered dramatically over the past week with risk aversion driving it to the lowest levels in a decade against the United States dollar (USD). The NZDUSD traded to a low of 0.6191 in the latter stages of last week and the pair has been volatile since. We did get bounce up to 0.6278 last night, but in the past few hours the NZD has started to melt away again. The Reserve Bank of New Zealand is now expected to cut interest rate at their next meeting on the 25th March, or they may even go earlier in some sort of coordinated action with other major central banks. It does seem only a matter of time before the US Fed act with Chairman Powell releasing a statement late last week saying “We will use our tools and act as appropriate to support the economy”. In the current environment it’s hard to see any meaningful recovery in the NZDUSD rate. On the other side of the equation, the pair has fallen a long way in recent weeks and we would need to see the epidemic get significantly worse and/or further stock market declines before the market decides to take the kiwi lower towards the next major level of support around 0.5950. We are looking for choppy trading between the broad parameters of 0.6150 and 0.6350 over the coming week.
Last Weeks Range: 0.6191-0.6358
The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) posted a high of 0.6357 earlier in the week against the US Dollar (USD) recovering from the weekly close of 0.6305 but with coronavirus fears elevated price drifted lower to 0.6285 a mid-October 2019 level into Friday. ANZ Business Confidence data was soft and US equities have been liquidated with indices down over 10% for the week off the back of coronavirus fears. Making matters worse for the kiwi was improving US data with Core Durable Sales and Pending Home Sales coming in better than expected with a sharp increase in the number of homes sold in January. Next week’s Non-Farm Payroll figures release along with US employment the focus. Coronavirus will continue to weigh down the kiwi until we see improvements in affected numbers with global economic risks weighing heavy. Support is seen at 0.6250, we think this could be tested next week.
The current interbank midrate is: NZDUSD 0.6305
The interbank range this week has been: NZDUSD 0.6283- 0.6357
Although the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) climbed back to 0.6535 levels prior to last week’s close against the US Dollar (USD) the kiwi it is still under enormous pressures. Coronavirus fears are still the main headline with more new cases and deaths every day increasing causing havoc around the world. Yesterday’s NZ Retail Sales was softer than expected at 0.5% following worse than expected US Manufacturing data. World equity prices have fallen overnight along with Crude Oil – the Nasdaq falling over 4%. These types of dips followed by further drops in the coming sessions/days could spark mass panic if coronavirus worsens. Current levels around 0.6340 could look decisively good if we are right and the kiwi is sold off to new depths. Looking ahead we have q/q GDP and US Consumer confidence.
Current Level: 0.6342
Last Weeks Range: 0.6303-0.6441
The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) has fallen victim to offshore developments and US Dollar (USD strength). Kicking off the week around 0.6440 mark it has declined into low 0.63’s to 0.6330 Friday lunch a November 2019 low. US data has been outstanding this week with Building permits, Manufacturing and Producer prices all much higher than markets were expecting. Coronavirus risks haven’t really affected risk sentiment as much as the previous weeks but the situation is far from over. The Fed maintained its current monetary policy stance, confirming at the minutes that rates would remain low for some time and the economy was showing resilience. A break below the multi-year low at 0.6220 should indicate further drops into the abyss for the struggling kiwi, as long as risks are weighted to the downside with coronavirus and improving US data, expect further falls.
The current interbank midrate is: NZDUSD 0.6332
The interbank range this week has been: NZDUSD 0.6324- 0.6447
After five weeks of declines against the US Dollar (USD) the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) returned to form recovering recent losses from the 0.6375 low to close the week at 0.6440. Governor Adrian Ore delivered an upbeat statement after leaving the cash rate at 1.0% taking the dovish bias to more of a neutral tone in policy bringing back investors to NZD. The kiwi is not out of the woods just yet with no data scheduled this week in NZ the kiwi could be pushed around by offshore forces and US data. Fed minutes from the late January policy meeting Thursday followed by Manufacturing data could move the cross. Ore suggested recently he thought the coronavirus would last only six weeks, if WHO report the virus is being contained we should see the kiwi edge higher, otherwise a general risk off tone will continue with kiwi downward bias.
Current level: 0.6435
Last Weeks Range: 0.6378-0.6487
The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) drifted down to 0.6377 in early week trading against the US Dollar (USD) – a yearly low, before recovering to 0.6480 post RBNZ announcement. Governor Adrian Ore delivered an upbeat statement after leaving the cash rate at 1.0% taking the dovish bias to more of a neutral tone in policy. Employment is at maximum sustainable levels and inflation is near the 2.0% target. Markets were expecting comments of cuts potentially as soon as April given recent economic effects from the coronavirus, but he confirmed no further cuts in 2020 would happen. The kiwi bounced off its lows on the news. US CPI for January rose 0.1% from 0.2% in December within the estimated range and coronavirus fears were back with the number of affected people on the rise contributing to a shift in price back to 0.6430. The bearish decline in the kiwi looks to continue from the beginning of 2020- we think the low of 0.6375 could again be tested.
The current interbank midrate is: NZDUSD 0.6435
The interbank range this week has been: NZDUSD 0.6377- 0.6486
The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) is currently trading at the yearly low of 0.6378 confirming seven weeks of straight declines against the US Dollar in 2020. Friday’s US Non-Farm Payroll figures came in at 225,000 for January showing further improvements in US jobs numbers with spiking construction employment. However the Unemployment Rate rose a tad to 3.6% from 3.5%. The kiwi has drifted below key support Tuesday to 0.6380 back at early November 2019 levels. Tomorrow’s RBNZ meeting holds this week’s attention with the expectation that the RBNZ will hold unchanged at 1.0% until April. If Ore delivers a dovish statement we could see the NZD retest long term support at 0.6200
Current Level: 0.6378
Last Weeks Range: 0.6381-0.6502
US ISM Manufacturing data came in better than expected at 50.9 in January keeping the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) on the back foot, as it sits at the 2 December low of 0.6460. The poor kiwi has underperformed every week in 2020. Support is 0.6440 just below where we currently trade which is under threat if coronavirus keeps markets “risk off”. NZ employment data Wednesday needs to print well to boost the NZD – the unemployment rate is expected to be unchanged at 4.2%. Later in the week US Non-Farm payroll should give us the normal currency volatility with the result predicted to print well. NZD downside bias looks to be the most probable outcome this week extending losses for the 6th week straight.
Current Level: 0.6453
Last Weeks Range: 0.6452-0.6553
The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) has retreated off the yearly open of around 0.6730 for the fifth straight week declining to 0.6480 Friday against the US Dollar (USD). Fed’s Powell retained the cash rate at 1.75% saying he expects the economy to expand at a good pace through 2020 – the rate should remain on hold unless inflation slipped well below the target of 2.0%. He also said he would tolerate a period of above target inflation as long as the expectations remain well anchored and didn’t drift below estimate. Coronavirus headlines are still dominating currency direction with more and more cases being reported every day and the WHO formally declaring a global emergency with a clear message of concern. A solid base of support exists around 0.6430 and we would be surprised if the kiwi broke through here. Next week’s NZ employment figures and US Non-Farm Payroll are the focus but direction could be overshadowed by further nasty virus media coverage.
The current interbank midrate is: NZDUSD 0.6716
The interbank range this week has been: NZDUSD 0.6479- 0.6598
Virus worries have intensified in the fight to contain the coronavirus with the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) reeling as markets by the safe haven US Dollar (USD). The kiwi has declined now 5 weeks straight from the late December high of 0.6755. Fourth quarter inflation figures printed at a rise of 0.5%, up on the 0.4% expected sighting increased costs in rental prices and airfares. This reinforces the RBNZ won’t cut rates at the next meeting on 12 Feb given inflation targets fall within the targeted 1-3% over the next 12 months. This week’s Federal Reserve rate announcement and monetary policy statement is the main event with no change expected from the 1.75% and little change from the December view. The kiwi looks heavy as markets digest potential economic flow on effects of the coronavirus, solid support is at 0.6450 which could be tested this week.
Current Level: 0.6612
Last Weeks Range: 0.6537-0.6629
The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) drifted lower to 0.6580 against the US Dollar early Friday on the lack of positive risk sentiment after fears the coronavirus had spread and was struggling to be contained by the world health authority. With the lack of US data on the calendar this week focus has been squarely on this morning’s NZ CPI release, which didn’t disappoint. Fourth quarter figures showed a rise to 0.5% up on the 0.4% expected sighting increased costs in rental prices and airfares. This reinforces the RBNZ won’t cut rates at the next meeting on 12 Feb given inflation targets fall within the targeted 1-3% over the next 12 months. The kiwi is still in a bearish trend and needs to break above 0.6650 to confirm a possible new bull run.
The current interbank midrate is: NZDUSD 0.6616
The interbank range this week has been: NZDUSD 0.6580- 0.6622
The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) fell against late Friday into the weekly close from 0.6665 on positive US data to 0.6590 into early Tuesday. Price recovered back to 0.6610 midday rejecting further downside bias. The world Economic Monetary Fund overnight described the 2020 economic outlook as in a synchronised slowdown with uncertainty over further risks which could affect growth. Their projections for 2020 suggest an increase from the 2019 growth increase of 2.9% to 3.3% to 3.4% for 2021. This week sees no significant economic releases in the US with just NZD CPI q/q on Friday. A daily close below 0.6600 looks unlikely but CPI could surprise.
Current Level: 0.6604
Last Weeks Range: 0.6584-0.6664
The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) came off its early week low of 0.6580 against the US Dollar (USD) as markets enjoyed renewed optimism sparked by the US and China officially signing the much anticipated phase one trade deal. The NZD was back above 0.6660 late Thursday but dropped back to 0.6630 midday Friday. US Retail Sales came in above expectations of 0.5% at 0.7% for the month of December while manufacturing figures for January were also improved. Despite the recent late 2019 drop in the cross from the high of 0.6750 we are still in a bullish trend extending from the low in September of 0.6220. Expect the kiwi to push higher over the coming weeks. Next week’s quarterly CPI holds focus.
The current interbank midrate is: NZDUSD 0.6632
The interbank range this week has been: NZDUSD 0.6582- 0.6664
2019 price points… open 0.6890, close 0.6730, high 0.6941, low 0.6205.
The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) early in the week spiked to 0.6650 before falling back against the US Dollar to 0.6620 Tuesday. NZIER Business Confidence this morning was fairly benign with last quarter reports indicating those that were surveyed seems to be more positive heading into 2020. We have quite a range of US related data to print this week including the December quarter CPI, Retail Sales and Manufacturing data. The main driver though seems to be the imminent signing of a phase one trade deal between China and the US and outcomes pending in the Middle East. Downside bias seems to be the trend in the kiwi since the decline from late December, price may retest 0.6600 if US data is solid.
Current Level: 0.6625
Last Weeks Range: 0.6600-0.6672
Stats from last year’s trading in the New Zealand Dollar (NZD), United States Dollar (USD) pair which may be of interest…2019 open 0.6890, close 0.6730, high 0.6941, low 0.6205. Trading from early October levels around 0.6200 the kiwi outperformed into the yearly close reaching 0.6750 but ran out of juice to push past July levels around 0.6800 – dropping back this week to 0.6620 on a fresh bout of risk aversion. Geopolitical influences have marred any momentum the kiwi had developed with concerns in the Middle East affecting markets. Missiles were fired yesterday into Iraq from Iran targeting US bases after the Iranian military general Qassem Suleimani assassination by the US. Crude Oil has come off over 5% in the last day or so together with continuation of any risk on mood. US Non-Farm Payroll is late Friday with the Unemployment Rate expected to print a solid 3.5%.
The current interbank midrate is: NZDUSD 0.6652
The interbank range this week has been: NZDUSD 0.6616- 0.6679
After a stellar performance over the last couple of weeks, the NZD ran out of breath overnight as the potential of a hard Brexit re-emerged, This saw an increase in risk aversion, supporting the USD and knocking commodity currencies NZD & AUD lower. Also not helping the NZD was a 5% price at the Global Dairy auction (much bigger than the 0.5% expected. After a high last Friday around the 0.6635 level the NZD/USD has not been able to hold above the 0.6600 inflection point and is now trading at 0.6575. Q3 GDP data tomorrow should provide better direction, with downside support at 0.6525 then 0.6495 ahead of 0.6415.- upside on a break of 0.6585 a track back to 0.6635
The current interbank midrate is: NZDUSD 0.6562
The interbank range this week has been: NZDUSD 0.6560- 0.6612
After pulling back to the 0.6522 level 2 days ago the NZD ground higher to 0.6603 as a more “risk-on” sentiment took hold of the market with news around SIno/US trade deal turning more positive…The NZD has not managed to hold above the 0.6600 level, currently trading around 0.6595, further concrete news on a trade deal should see the NZD consolidate its gains and push to resistance around the 0.6620 mark.
The current interbank midrate is: NZDUSD 0.6606
The interbank range this week has been: NZDUSD 0.6521- 0.6635
The NZD has held onto previous gains made last week on the back of the RBNZ capital adequacy review and is now trading around 0.6550 after a mixed session overnight.
The much better than forecast US jobs figures last Friday had little impact on the NZD which continues to consolidate gains above the 0.6500 level, If the current risk-on tone remains look for the NZD to track higher against the USD with potential to push above the 0.6600 level, but we remain wary of any breakdown in the SIno/US trade talks which if profound would see selling pressure back on the trade and risk currencies – including the kiwi. Range of 0.6500- 0.6590 should hold over the next few days, a break over 0.6595 would see a push to the 0.6620 level.
Last Weeks Range: 0.6423-0.6575
The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) continued its rally higher this week against the US Dollar (USD) to 0.6545 progressing its rise from the early November daily low of 0.6320. The RBNZ released its Capital Review aimed at capital adequacy for local banks. The RBNZ plans to nearly double the capital requirements held by large and small banks equating to nearly 24 Billion NZ Dollars. Orr said this was a long term objective to reduce the likelihood of bank failure. The NZD squeezed higher post release as markets saw this as a long term positive. US Non-Farm Payroll releases tomorrow morning and may hold upside risks to the pair based on ADP missing its mark earlier in the week. The kiwi holds a four month high at 0.6545 Friday and could track higher towards Christmas if risk prevails.
The current interbank midrate is: NZDUSD 0.6543
The interbank range this week has been: NZDUSD 0.6421- 0.6562
The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) surged to 0.6510 into Tuesday immediately pushing higher against the US Dollar (USD) on the weekly open. Risk factors played a part, Trump was back on the wires asking the Fed to drop the US Cash Rate from its current 1.75% to devalue the US Dollar, together with a buoyant print in Chinese Manufacturing. Prime Minister Ardern announced a 400M property investment boost for NZ schools in the form of a one off cash injection worth $693.00 per student across the country marking the largest investment to school property in 25 years. Clearly ramping up incentives pre 2020 election. The kiwi has held gains around 0.6500 helped by poor US ISM Manufacturing overnight. US Non-Farm Payroll releases at the end of the week along with job’s numbers, if we see figures close to the expected 189,000 this should push the kiwi significantly through 0.6500 and clear of the recent ranges.
Current Level: 0.6501
Last Weeks Range: 0.6403-0.6510
Choppy market conditions have seen the New Zealand Dollar (NZD), USD Dollar (USD) pair remain relatively unmoved around 0.6400 levels for most of the week. A myriad of data releases, especially in the US have failed to drive the cross to new levels. Durable Goods Orders came in at 0.6% from the expected -0.5% based on a surge in US defence spending. Chicago PMI index, a good barometer for manufacturing output, came in a little light at 46.3 based on estimates of 47.2 loosened the grip on early week USD momentum. Risk wavered over the week turning slightly negative after Trump officially joined the support of HK protesters. It’s a full week on the calendar next week in the US ending with crucial Non-Farm Payrolls. The cross looks to be holding 0.6400 just – but has had trouble breaking past resistance at 0.6440 this week, next week we should see far more volatility develop.
The current interbank midrate is: NZDUSD 0.6765
The interbank range this week has been: NZDUSD 0.6394- 0.6433
The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) continues to bounce around the 0.6400 level against the US Dollar (USD) Tuesday. The past week of trading has been choppy as the cross looks for directional drivers. This morning’s Retail Sales was a lot stronger for the third quarter supporting the view that the NZ economy could be rebounding rather than slipping south. The news bounced price off the weekly low of 0.6395 back to 0.6410 levels. In recent weeks the kiwi has struggled to get above 0.6430 marking a heavy resistance point, with this week’s fully booked data calendar it will be interesting to gauge momentum. US Consumer Confidence and ANZ Business Confidence will be key along with the Chicago Manufacturing print. We favour a pull back below 0.6400 levels and suggest buyers of USD take a look at current levels around 0.6400
Current Level: 0.6411
Last Weeks Range: 0.6381-0.6437
The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) has held last week’s gains against the US Dollar (USD) into Friday – just, but overnight Thursday lost value to trade around 0.6400. It’s been a slow week of meaningful data which explains the lack of direction in the cross. US Building Permits were better than predicted and likewise US Manufacturing numbers but with the biggest news coming from the Fed when they excluded “will act as appropriate” from rhetoric suggesting cuts may be over. Next week we have a little more influential data to push prices around such as US Consumer Confidence and locally ANZ Business Confidence but the main driver could well be further US/China trade talk. The bullish NZD trend from early October remains intact for now, a solid break above 0.6450 could spell further upside.
The current interbank midrate is: NZDUSD 0.6402
The interbank range this week has been: NZDUSD 0.6381- 0.6436
The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) held onto last week’s gains leading into the close of the week against the US Dollar (USD) trading around the 0.6400 mark. Movement into Tuesday has been a little shifty with price choosing to stay around 0.6400 as it waits for directional cues. It’s a quiet week on the economic docket with just US building permits tomorrow and Flash Manufacturing Friday to look forward to. Also on the radar is Thursday’s FOMC – Fed minutes from the 1st November policy meeting when they left the official cash rate on hold at 1.75%. China/US trade headlines dominate the market risk profile again, a retest of last week’s low of 0.6330 is the most likely outcome.
Current Level: 0.6395
Last Weeks Range: 0.6325-0.6420
Early in the week the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) held its ground around 0.6330 against the US Dollar (USD) before the RBNZ cash rate announcement surged the kiwis to a fresh weekly high of 0.6418. Governor Adrian Orr left the benchmark rate unchanged at 1.0% surprising markets after a cut was generally expected. He didn’t see the need for cutting further just yet based on aggressively cutting 50 points in August and inflation expectations reasonably in line with recent forecasts. With markets generally short NZD heading into the announcement with a 25 point cut holding more consensus, investors were left exposed with the cross bounding over 70 points in a short space of time. Risk mood deteriorated into Friday with the kiwi retracing some of the gains made travelling back to 0.6370. Also of note and benefiting the big dollar was US Producer Price Index increasing 0.4% for October. We expect the kiwi to squeeze a little higher heading into the close.
The current interbank midrate is: NZDUSD 0.6376
The interbank range this week has been: NZDUSD 0.6325- 0.6417
The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) rebounded hard off the recent decline from 0.6460 and weekly close at 0.6320 Monday against the US Dollar pushing higher back to 0.6370 as news over the last few hours has surfaced that the RBNZ may not cut rates tomorrow. Also, and probably more importantly the BNZ came out saying the kiwi is trading at the cheapest it’s been in a decade with fair value estimates now at 0.6900. Market short positioning in the kiwi over the last few days by investors have also squared these positions pushing the kiwi higher. Expect the normal volatility around the RBNZ. We expect the kiwi to decline to 0.6240 early October levels.
Last Weeks Range: 0.6322-0.6431
The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) doesn’t know if it’s Arthur or Martha this week as conflicting headlines send the currency into a spin. Against the stronger, more supported US Dollar (USD) price has dropped off the open of 0.6435 to 0.6370 into Friday after a mixed bag of results. A worrying kiwi jobs report and concerns of a delay in the US China trade negotiations have both weighed on the NZD. Unemployment sharply rose from 3.9% to 4.2%. Apparently the US have agreed to wind back current tariffs on a bunch of Chinese exported products bought renewed buying interest back in the kiwi taking if the weekly low of 0.6340 to 0.6380 during overnight trading. Next week’s RBNZ holds market attention with a cut to 0.75% predicted along with US Retail Sales and m/m CPI. We expect a retest of the three week low at 0.6330 to come into play in the coming days.
The current interbank midrate is: NZDUSD 0.6367
The interbank range this week has been: NZDUSD 0.6340- 0.6465
The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) benefited early Monday from a more stable outlook boosting risk assets and the kiwi to a 14 August high of 0.6465 against the US Dollar. Price up at these heights wasn’t to last with renewed greenback strength price fall back sharply to 0.6400 during the London trading session. With phase one of the trade deal between the US and China all but done this could offset any further downside bias for the kiwi over the coming days. Non-Farm Payroll still continues to surprise markets with another 128,000 new jobs added to the US workforce in October which is adding to US equity markets clocking record levels and seemingly on autopilot higher. Long term the kiwi is still working its way higher from the major daily low at 0.6240 and could retest 0.6500 if tomorrow’s NZ employment numbers publish well.
Last Weeks Range: 0.6334-0.6465
The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) came off an early week low of 0.6335 against the US Dollar (USD) to grind higher to a Friday high of 0.6430. The pair traded flat all week leading up to Thursday’s Fed Rate announcement which cut by 25 basis points to 1.75%. The Fed statement was slightly more hawkish than we were expecting with comments intensely anticipated as usual, Powell’s comments helped the kiwi drive higher. The Fed indicated they were ready to pause easing after cutting three times this year, Powell declared more than once that he thought monetary policy was “in a good place”. ANZ Business Confidence released slightly better but businesses still thought pessimistic of business opportunities in the next 12 months. Tomorrow morning’s (NFP) Non-Farm Payroll number, the biggest monthly data influence to financial markets should come in on target, if we go off earlier ADP results it could boost kiwi through last week’s resistance of 0.6435.
The current interbank midrate is: NZDUSD 0.6405
The interbank range this week has been: NZDUSD 0.6332- 0.6431
The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) has extended last week’s decline from the high of 0.6435 trading down to 0.6333 against the US Dollar (USD) in thin Monday conditions. Tuesday’s risk sentiment improved with prices returning to 0.6355. Markets are gearing up for a chunky set of economic releases this week with the Federal Reserve monetary policy meeting and (NFP) Non-Farm Payroll the main focus. Chances are sitting at 92% that the cash rate will be cut to 1.75% from 2.0% hailed as possibly the third and final cut for 2019 with rhetoric by Powell suggesting comments could be rather hawkish based around GDP projections. 2020 and 2021 forecasts are only slightly lower with third quarter growth of 2.1-2.3%. The kiwi could be well supported this week, we expect a retest of 0.6400 over the coming days.
Current Level: 0.6359
Last Weeks Range: 0.6334-0.6435
The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) extended last week’s gains into Tuesday reaching 0.6435 against the US Dollar before running out of fuel and easing back to 0.6370 levels. With no data out this week, and fresh concerns regarding the global economy after Japanese PMI figures came out softer than expected, we have seen the kiwi drift off the recent high. Nervous selling ahead of the speech by Vice President Pence also weighed on sentiment. US Durable goods fell 1.1% in September, the first time in three months reflecting alarming weakness in manufacturing which will bother US economy analysts ahead of next week’s Federal Reserve meeting. At the moment we are not expecting a shift from the 2.0% cash rate. Also of note on next week’s economic docket is the all important Non-Farm Payroll release and US Unemployment rate. Weighty support in the cross is seen at 0.6340, price should hold above here for a while.
The current interbank midrate is: NZDUSD 0.6377
The interbank range this week has been: NZDUSD 0.6327- 0.6435
The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) extended last week’s gains from the 0.6370 close into Tuesday against the US Dollar (USD) reaching 0.6415 a fresh six-week high. Risk sentiment alone has boosted the kiwi as comments from Chinese Liu made headlines when he suggested that China and the US have made “concrete progress” towards ending the trade war between the two countries which is now into its second year. Trump said phase one of the agreement should be signed off by the Asia-Pacific Economic meeting in Chile on the 16th of November. Until then all new implementation of additional tariffs have been suspended as a mark of goodwill while negotiations take place. A slow week for economic data should find markets fixed on geopolitical headlines and Brexit. Buyers of the greenback should consider current levels around 0.6400
Current Level: 0.6412
Last Weeks Range: 0.6241-0.6415
It’s been a game of two halves for the New Zealand Dollar (NZD), US Dollar (USD) cross this week having travelled down to 0.6240 midweek and back to the weekly open Friday consolidating around 0.6350 levels. Positive earnings result this week out in the US with companies showing rises to earnings forecasts have boosted sentiment over the last couple of days with US equities booking profit and risk related currencies boosted. NZ CPI for the third quarter was up 0.7% from the predicted 0.6%. Annual inflation is at 1.5% from a year earlier but higher than the anticipated RBNZ forecast of 1.3%. US Retail Sales printed poor for September at -0.3% from 0.3% expected with investors exiting the US Dollar as a result. Next week will be a slow week for economic releases, expect price to take shape favouring risk flows with the kiwi targeting 0.6430 if sentiment allows.
The current interbank midrate is: NZDUSD 0.6360
The interbank range this week has been: NZDUSD 0.6240- 0.6362
Movement in the New Zealand Dollar (NZD), US Dollar (USD) pair has been dictated by risk sentiment due to recent trade talks Washington. A partial deal has been verbally agreed between China and the US saw risk improve late last week but sadly based on a lack of substantial detail we were back in risk averse conditions Tuesday. Friday’s high of 0.6350 was short lived with the kiwi extending late Friday’s declines into today travelling to 0.6282 before a little improvement higher around late morning. Looking ahead we have just NZ quarterly CPI on the local calendar with US Building Approvals and Retails holding focus. Unless we see further risk headlines the cross should hold above 0.6280 this week.
Current Level: 0.6298
Last Weeks Range: 0.6270-0.6253
The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) rallied overnight buoyed by risk sentiment turning more positive on better news from the US/China trade talks. Price action has been choppy in the NZD/USD cross over the last 24 hours with both the high (0.6335) and low (0.6277) of the week being made, however it is now back around the 0.6317 level and looks set to track higher as softer USD inflation data saw the USD weaken…Look for a test of the 0.6350 level over the next couple of days , however any rally significantly above this level is likely to be limited by continued RBNZ interest rate dovishness.
The current interbank midrate is: NZDUSD 0.6317
The interbank range this week has been: NZDUSD 0.6276- 0.6335
Choppy conditions in currency markets continue with the New Zealand Dollar (NZD), US Dollar (USD) no different. Price dropped early in the week to around 0.6200 levels, deep into the September 2015 level, based on poor business confidence releases. ANZ Business confidence published down at -53.5 the lowest confidence number we have seen in over a decade, also NZIER Business Confidence was also poor with a net 35% of businesses surveyed expect a worsening NZ economic outlook. US Manufacturing figures printed down on expectations sending equities lower as the slowdown in manufacturing intensifies. The kiwi rallied into Friday back on manufacturing data headlines to the weekly open to 0.6300. Looking ahead we have US Non-Farm Payroll tomorrow morning which should give us a normal bout of volatility around the release, expect numbers in be in line with forecast of 145,000 with employment remaining at 3.7%.
The current interbank midrate is: NZDUSD 0.6308
The interbank range this week has been: NZDUSD 0.6203- 0.6315
The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) fell sharply on the weekly open against the US Dollar (USD) to meet with the long term support level of 0.6245. ANZ Business confidence printed poor at -53.5 showing most businesses were pessimistic of business opportunities and growth over the coming months. The reading was the lowest level since the financial crisis in April 2008. Most saying they would not be in a position to hire additional staff. The report sent the kiwi lower into Tuesday as it hovers around breaking lower to the September 2015 low. Just about every Fed member is speaking this week on various key Fed issues but the main highlight on the calendar for the greenback is the Non-Farm Payroll release and unemployment figures Friday. We expect a touch of volatility as normal around this release with general expectations the US Dollar will gain strength over the week boosting equity prices and possibly sending the fragile NZD lower.
Current Level: 0.6258
Last Weeks range: 0.6249-0.6348
This week’s trading in the New Zealand Dollar (NZD), US Dollar (USD) pair has been volatile with price action chopping around the 0.6300 level. The Reserve Bank of New Zealand left the official cash rate unchanged on Wednesday at 1.0% but said there’s still room to cut further if necessary. The result was priced into expectations after the RBNZ surprised markets at their August 7 outing by cutting 50 points. Meeting inflation targets and maintaining high employment are the key focus looking ahead for the central bank amid a weakening global outlook. The good news this week for buyers of USD is the kiwi rebounded higher off last week’s low of 0.6250. Reaching a high of 0.6350 pre RBNZ announcement the kiwi was quickly sold off as RBNZ’s Orr spoke of further cuts to come. Most Fed members have spoken this week at various events with the general economic theme summarised by Barkin saying they expect a “roller coaster” of upcoming threats to the economy to linger. 0.6250 the long term support level may not hold for much longer – next week’s US Non-Farm Payroll figures Friday are the focus.
The current interbank midrate is: NZDUSD 0.6291
The interbank range this week has been: NZDUSD 0.6257- 0.6348
The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) reached a September 2015 low last week of 0.6255 against the US Dollar (USD). Monday’s return of improved sentiment took the NZD higher to 0.6300 with equity markets rising as well after concerns around US Farm visits were cancelled by Chinese officials proved to be unfounded with the rescheduling of visits next week. Also buoying markets was confirmation top Chinese negotiator Liu is scheduled to visit Washington next week to carry on tariff talks with US secretary Mnuchin. Locally the main event on the docket is the RBNZ cash rate announcement tomorrow with no change expected from the current 1.0%. With other central banks under pressure to make more cuts Orr’s comments in his monetary statement could give us firmer NZD direction for the remainder of the year. If the kiwi drops a further 1.5 cents through long term support of 0.6120 it’s pure darkness.
Last Weeks Range: 0.6255-0.6362
The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) drifted lower all week against the US Dollar (USD) back to early September levels of 0.6280. Affairs in Saudi Arabia affecting Crude Oil prices and risk flow affected the kiwi into Thursday’s Federal Reserve policy meeting when the Fed lowered rates by 0.25%. A hawkish statement followed from Powell with him saying he would ease further if appropriate, if market conditions changed. Fed members were divided on where policy should be going forward. NZ quarterly GDP surprised with 0.5% slightly better than the 0.4% expected but down on the March quarter. Risk sentiment and a fundamentally stronger USD has been the key this week with further losses to the kiwi. Next week’s RBNZ should be informative and should offer further clues to policy, we are not expecting a cut just yet from the 1.0%. A weekly close lower than 0.6280 could see the kiwi look deep into the abyss.
The current interbank midrate is: NZDUSD 0.6287
The interbank range this week has been: NZDUSD 0.6285- 0.6391
The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) continues to slide to fresh lows against the US Dollar (USD) dropping to 0.6335 Tuesday amid risk aversion. Market sentiment took a turn for the worse over the weekend on the news of drone attacks on a Saudi Arabian oil field, before the kiwi suffered another hit from softer Chinese data out Monday with Chinese industrial production. The Federal Reserve cash rate and statement is announced Thursday morning with expectations that the rate will be cut to 2.0% from 2.25%. The main focus lies with comments around future outlook with a potential two further cuts taking place before year end. We sense this cross wants to trade back to 0.6300 with risk factors affecting overall mood. We may get a bounce higher on the fed announcement but this could be short lived as a 25 point fed cut fully prices in.
Last Weeks Range: 0.6338-0.6450
The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) traded higher against the US Dollar (USD) off the back of buoyant risk mood into Thursday to 0.6445 extending last week’s run but was met with resistance and dropped back towards 0.6400 levels midday Friday. China dropped tariffs on 16 US products in an unprecedented act to win over the US President, Trump retaliated with an act of goodwill announcing he would defer tariffs on 250B of Chinese products until October 15th. US Core CPI published at 0.3% from the 0.2% markets were predicting sending the US Dollar higher across the board along with equity markets. US Retail Sales prints later tonight and is expected to come in lower at 0.2% from July’s 0.7%. Next week’s Fed cash rate and monetary policy statement will be the main focus in a busy few days of economic data. Buyers of USD shouldn’t get to greedy and should take advantage of the recent spike from the low of 0.6265 set on 3rd Sept.
The current interbank midrate is: NZDUSD 0.6403
The interbank range this week has been: NZDUSD 0.6396- 0.6449
The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) holds around the 0.6430 area against the US Dollar (USD) Tuesday after turning positive from last week’s low of 0.6268. A healthy risk appetite continues with US equities extending their run off the back of China agreeing to sit back at the table with US officials to nut out trade negotiations. Friday’s Non-farm payroll took the US lower on a worse than predicted result with only an improvement of 130k to the workforce after 163k was forecast. US unemployment remains at 3.7% with a slight rise in earnings of 0.4% from 0.3%. US Data and risk factors will affect price movement over the remaining week with US monthly CPI and US Retail Sales to come. Technically the 100 day moving average has stayed below recent price movement suggesting more upside to possibly eventuate.
Current Level: 0.6431
Last Weeks Range:0.6269-0.6443
The New Zealand Dollar has reacted this week on positive market sentiment out performing the US Dollar (USD) into Thursday reaching a fresh high of 0.6395. US ADP job figures printed at 195,000 compared to 148,000 bringing buyers back into the greenback shifting price lower to 0.6365 during the overnight trading sessions. Not always but the ADP is usually an indication of what we can expect when non-farm payroll releases (NFP) tomorrow morning. Expectations are that 163,000 US people were added to the workforce in August, if the number prints higher we may see the kiwi trade lower targeting 0.6300. Technically price has stayed below the 100 day moving average line on the chart since late July. It’s intersecting this today and suggests the continuation of the long term bearish NZD decline.
The current interbank midrate is: NZDUSD 0.6373
The interbank range this week has been: NZDUSD 0.6287- 0.6395
A slow start to the week with a US holiday Monday made for thin conditions across markets with the New Zealand Dollar (NZD), US Dollar (USD) pair stable around the 0.6300 area. This week’s ADP and Non-Farm Payroll release is firmly in focus with predictions US jobs data should be positive. If data supports the greenback we could see the kiwi push lower continuing its bearish run to prior long term support at 0.6280. No economic data for the NZD this week could also indicate price may drift lower as the week progresses.
Last Weeks Range:0.6283-0.6398
The mighty New Zealand Dollar (NZD) is still under a cloud of despair this week and has again underperformed against the US Dollar (USD) trading down to 0.6315 and counting. Data this week has not been exactly NZD supportive after ANZ Business Confidence came in lower than expected at -52.3 versus -44.3 immediately sending the kiwi to fresh lows. An ugly risk averse bias looms large over risk affected currencies after earlier this week trade talks turned nasty escalating to a new level of uneasiness. Markets have relaxed some over the last couple of days and with less anxiety out there the kiwi did bounce higher for a short time. The next support line is at 0.6230 the low from September 2015, we are not far off this. US Personal Spending prints tomorrow and could send the kiwi lower if the numbers print well. Next week’s Non-Farm Payroll will hold market focus, the highlight on Friday.
The current interbank midrate is: NZDUSD 0.6292
The interbank range this week has been: NZDUSD 0.6402- 0.6292
With the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) the weakest currency over the past week, it’s no surprise to see the NZD drift lower to 0.6340 against the US Dollar (USD). Five straight weeks of declines for the kiwi from the 21 July high of 0.6785 shows the impact of how risk associated currencies can suffer, in this case from the trade war between China and the US. After recently delaying further tariffs Trump has increased them after China confirmed they were adding a 5% tariff to 75B worth of US made products, escalating tensions to another level. Since then we have seen Trump suggest China has made contact with him suggesting they would like to restart talks. This saw tensions dialled down somewhat into Tuesday and price making a comeback to 0.6390. Prelim US quarterly GDP Friday holds market attention this week on the data front with forecast figures for July expected to come in around 2.0% much lower than June’s 3.1%
Current Level: 0.6383
Last Weeks Range: 0.6342-0.6428
It’s been a tough week for the New Zealand dollar (NZD) which has largely underperformed most of its peers. The kiwi slipped below the psychological 0.6400 level against the United States dollar (USD) yesterday and this only encouraged further selling. The pair has traded to a low overnight of 0.6362. At this stage there is little to indicate that the downtrend which has been in play since late July is running out of momentum. As such, the risks remain skewed toward further losses. We do however have to be mindful of President Trump’s Twitter account, and any hints that his administration could be reassessing the “strong dollar” policy would cause a sharp turnaround. This weekend’s Jackson Hole central banker symposium also poses a significant risk event. Fed governors have used past symposiums to signal major changes in central bank policy. At this stage it seems unlikely Fed Chair Powell is going to cave to pressure from Trump and ease policy anywhere near as much as the president would like, but the US Fed is starting to stand out in a world where other central banks are taking a much more dovish stance.
The current interbank midrate is: NZDUSD 0.6370
The interbank range this week has been: NZDUSD 0.6361 – 0.6445
With recent US data printing above expectations along with risk sentiment impacting currency movement generally, the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) US Dollar (USD) cross remains intent on moves to the downside. Trading just below the weekly open around 0.6410 a retest of 0.6395 is close and could be breached if the big dollar regains some momentum. Thursday’s Fed meeting minutes is firmly in focus with Powell also speaking at the Jackson Hole event in Wyoming later in the week when central bankers get together to discuss policy. It’s a tough call to make to suggest current prices represent good buying of USD, but with the current pessimism in markets around global outlook it’s hard to see much upside in the kiwi for a good while. NZ Retail Sales also could surprise Friday and cause some bounciness.
Current Level: 0.6407
Last Weeks Range: 0.6403-0.6471
The New Zealand Dollar (NZD), US Dollar (USD) pair has been flat all week ranging about 50 points from the weekly open. Trading at the moment at 0.6435 this is close to its recent lows and looks to have further downside momentum from poor risk sentiment which has broadly supported the greenback. The escalation of the US/China trade war looks to drag on for a while, confirming the recent poor performances by equity markets and US Treasury yields. US Data published this week has been good – monthly CPI, Retail Sales and Manufacturing were all above expectations with Building Approvals to come tomorrow. Next week’s Jackson Hole Symposium in Kansas will be in focus Friday after NZ Retail Sales.
The current interbank midrate is: NZDUSD 0.6428
The interbank range this week has been: NZDUSD 0.6420- 0.6474
The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) continued its downward bias late Friday into the weekly close against the US Dollar to 0.6460. This week has seen no change in the bearish trend with price moving to 0.6440 Tuesday as the cross looks to retest last week’s post RBNZ low of 0.6375. The risk off tone from the escalation of the US/China trade war looks to drag on for a while, confirming the recent risk averse mood was overnight US equities dropping over 1.5% overnight. US monthly inflation figures will be the focus this week with a rise to the June number of 0.1% with 0.3% forecast. Retail Sales prints later in the week with Building Permits Friday. If investors hold safe haven assets over the week the NZD will track lower towards the multi year low of 0.6420
Current Level: 0.6447
Last Weeks Range: 0.6377-0.6585
The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) bounced off 0.6485 long term support overnight against the US Dollar (USD) recovering slightly to 0.6530. Whether this level holds this week will depend largely on the risk mood of markets. President Trump has bought in an additional 10% tariff to 300B worth of Chinese products starting 1 September and followed up be accusing the Chinese of currency (Yuan) manipulation. Which is true as it’s the only way to offset tariff costs to the economy. The USDCNY is now trading over 7 and expected to trade higher- its not unforeseeable we could see the currency fully offset the 10% imposed by Trump which would imply a level somewhere around 7.4. We have seen massive declines in equities overnight with the DOW, Nasdaq and S&P all falling over 3%. Today’s NZ employment figures surprised to the upside with the NZ Unemployment rate falling to 3.9% after 4.2% was expected, with the unemployment rate now the lowest since March 2008. The fall in the unemployment rate also reflected a fall of 9,000 in the number of unemployed bringing the total unemployment number down to 109,000 in NZ. This all ponders the question if the RBNZ will favour a more neutral tone tomorrow in their monetary policy statement if the economy isn’t all custard like most believe. Focus now is with tomorrow’s RBNZ cash rate decision with Orr expected to cut the cash rate from 1.5% to 1.25%.
Last Weeks Range: 0.6489-0.6634
The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) extended another leg lower Thursday after the Federal Reserve was less dovish than predicted, the kiwi trading to 0.6535 before stabilizing. The Fed cut rates from 2.5% to 2.25%, Powell saying he wasn’t going to cut again in the near term if it wasn’t necessary. To make matters worse for the kiwi risk sentiment deteriorated with US equities dropping over 1% as President Trump overnight introduced fresh tariffs on Chinese products. The US government will impose an additional 10% on $300B starting September 1 surprising markets after recent talks this week in Shanghai clearly hadn’t gone well. ISM manufacturing gave the kiwi some relief when figures published showing less expansion for July missing the mark at 51.2 based on predictions of 52.0. Overall though anything over 50.00 is seen as positive long term for the US economy. Non-Farm Payrolls tomorrow morning is now the focus with an additional 164,000 jobs expected to be added to the US workforce. This will inevitably put further pressures on the NZD but 0.6500 support should hold for now.
The current interbank midrate is: NZDUSD 0.6549
The interbank range this week has been: NZDUSD 0.6534- 0.6618
The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) hovers around the 0.6630 area Tuesday just off from the weekly low against the US Dollar (USD). The Federal Reserve will announce their cash rate Thursday, markets are very much poised in freeze frame until then with the Fed cash rate expected to drop from 2.5% to 2.25%. The statement may reflect recent positive data flow of late with a small chance they may signal no further easing in 2019. President Trump maintains his stance that the Fed have raised rates to early and too high to 2.5%. Recent US Dollar strength doesn’t suggest such a view with momentum supporting the big dollar and the US Index up just over 98.00 at multi year highs. Tomorrow’s ANZ Business Confidence is not expected to come in to positive. Later in the week we will see further volatility with US Non-Farm Payroll releasing. Technically higher highs and higher lows on the charts still follow a bullish theme although a break lower through 0.6600 could spell lower prices.
Current Level: 0.6631
Last Weeks Range: 0.6616-0.6766
The recent fortnight rally in the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) reached a high of 0.6786 Monday before reversing lower on US Dollar (USD) strength. US Core Durable Goods Orders printed well above the expected 0.2% at 1.2% rebounding higher off the past two months of poor releases. Business spending and investment is still struggling and much softer than a year ago with companies trying to trade through an uncertain global economy. Dropping to around 0.6700 levels Wednesday the cross seemed to consolidate somewhat before slipping another leg lower overnight to 0.6660 as risk markets took losses with equities off. NZ Trade Balance Wednesday gave the kiwi course for buyer interest after figures showed a surplus to June 2019 of 365M based on predictions of 100M, but the kiwi never really got going. Next week’s FOMC meeting holds key interest with President Trump making his opinion known recently that Fed rates are to high increasing pressures on the Federal Reserve to cut rates from the 2.5% currently to at least 2.25%.
The current interbank midrate is: NZDUSD 0.6654
The interbank range this week has been: NZDUSD 0.6653- 0.6787
The New Zealand dollar (NZD) remains well supported against the United States dollar (USD), currently trading just above 0.6740. While we do have US data in the form of Durable Goods Orders and Advance GDP to digest this week, the focus is firmly on next week’s Fed interest rate meeting. The Fed have had a disastrous few days in terms of communication. On Friday morning NY Fed President made extremely dovish comments arguing for pre-emptive measures to avoid having to deal with too-low inflation and interest rate. The USD sank as the market digested the comments with the NZDUSD surging to the week’s high of 0.6790. A few hours later however, Fed representatives had to walk the comments back, clarifying they were “academic” and not related to immediate policy changes. The USD then recovered some of its losses. We are now in the media blackout period ahead of the Fed meeting but that hasn’t stopped President Trump continuing to make his feelings known. He’s heaping pressure on the Fed to cut, and to cut significantly. A 25 point cut is almost a certainty, while some are speculating they could go bigger. In the meantime, the NZDUSD should remain elevated. Support around 0.6720 should contain any periods of near term weakness, while tests toward 0.6800 continue to run into decent selling.
Current Level: 0.6745
Last Weeks Range: 0.6696 – 0.6790
The New Zealand dollar (NZD) has put in a solid week of gains against the United States dollar (USD) driven in large part by dovish rhetoric from Fed speakers. The comments have been so dovish the only question around the upcoming Fed meeting is whether they will cut 25 or 50 basis points. In this environment it’s not surprising the big dollar is struggling. Add into the mix data from NZ this week that saw inflation rebound to 0.6% for the second quarter, from the prior 0.1%, and positive dairy auction results, and we now have the NZDUSD trading at the highest levels since April. For now at least, the risks remain skewed toward further gains in the pair. Clients looking to convert NZD to USD may well be able to target levels 0.6800 over the coming week. The next major resistance level looks to be around 0.6935, although that may be a step too far in the near term.
The current interbank midrate is: NZDUSD 0.6775
The interbank range this week has been: NZDUSD 0.6661 – 0.6789
The New Zealand dollar (NZD) made a sharp turnaround against the United States dollar in the wake of last week’s dovish testimony from Fed Chair Powell. That put the USD on the back foot and the NZD seized the opportunity to rally back to the best levels since April, trading to a high of 0.6734 overnight. The latest leg higher was also helped by the release of yesterday’s stronger than forecast Chinese activity data. There is some decent resistance for the pair around 0.6750 and that might prove tough to crack in the near term. Over the coming 3 weeks, both the US Fed and the Reserve Bank of New Zealand are expected to cut interest rates, so there is plenty of opportunity for volatility. Clients looking to convert NZD to USD should consider taking advantage of the current strength in the pair and look to lock a rate in.
Current Level: 0.6723
Last Weeks Range: 0.6568-0.6734
It’s really has been a week of two halves for the New Zealand dollar (NZD). Early in the week the NZD was under pressure on the back of a stronger USD in the wake last Friday’s solid US employment report. The NZD broke below 0.6600 and even had a very quick flurry down to a low of 0.6569 on Wednesday. But momentum turned around on Wednesday night after Fed Chair Powell’s dovish testimony put the United States dollar under significant pressure. The NZDUSD gains continued yesterday reaching a high over night of 0.6688. Resistance on the topside comes on around 0.6725 will downside support is seen around 0.6560. With both countries central banks signalling upcoming monetary easings we may well see the NZDUSD continue to range between those two levels over the coming weeks.
The current interbank midrate is: NZDUSD 0.6665
The interbank range this week has been: NZDUSD 0.6569 – 0.6688
The New Zealand dollar (NZD) peaked at 0.6720 mid last week vs the United States dollar (USD), but since then we have seen a sharp turn around driven in large part by strong US employment data on Friday night. The gain of 224k Non-Farm Payrolls was well above expectations and it saw the USD make broad based gains. That drove the NZDUSD cross rate down to a low of 0.6603 before recovering slightly. For now the risks remain skewed to the downside and we could easily see the NZD back under 0.6600 this week. There is little of note set for release from NZ over the coming days, while from the US we have Fed Chair Powell speaking along with inflation data. Clients looking to convert USD to NZD should hold in for a move below 0.6600.
Current Level: 0.6623
Last Weeks Range: 0.6603-0.6720
The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) has been well supported towards the later half of the week against the US Dollar (USD) after pushing off the recent low of 0.6655 to trade at 0.6690 after briefly reaching 0.6720 yesterday. NZIER Business Confidence printed well below reasonable levels back to March 2009 figures, with some banks now pricing two further cuts this year with the August release almost fully priced in. The timing of the second cut will be determined by incoming data. Expect the cash rate to be at 1.0% by year end. Tomorrow morning’s US Non Farm Payroll’s prints, which if the earlier ADP release is anything to go off should come in well below expectations of 102,000 boosting NZD.
The current interbank midrate is: NZDUSD 0.6708
The interbank range this week has been: NZDUSD 0.6655- 0.6726
The recent reversal off the weekly close by the New Zealand (NZD) shows just how fast markets can turn. The US Dollar (USD) is back in favour after an upbeat meeting between President Trump and Xi Jinping at the weekend’s G20 bought back investors to the greenback. After reaching 0.6726 the NZD has slid back to 0.6670 Tuesday. NZIER Business Confidence this morning printed well below what’s is considered optimistic levels to March 2009 levels, with some banks now pricing two further cuts this year with the August 8 release almost fully priced in. The timing of the second cut will be determined by incoming data. Expect the cash rate to be at 1.0% at year end. US Non-Farm Payroll for June is released Friday with expectations of another good release in job’s numbers around 164,000 and unemployment to remain stable at 3.6%. US Bank Holiday Thursday with Independence Day should create slow markets leading into NFP.
Current Level: 0.6969
Last Weeks Range: 0.6595-0.6726
Bearish US Dollar sentiment and mild improvement in risk markets have assisted the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) pushing higher to the big figure of 0.6700 overnight. Equity markets, the DOW, S&P together with the Nasdaq have all gone higher not to mention commodity prices. Focus this week has been on the RBNZ cash rate announcement with Adrian Orr leaving rates unchanged at 1.50% supporting market sentiment that further easing is required. Cutting rates on 7 August meeting now is almost fully expected and priced into the curve with Orr reconfirming risks associated with worsening employment and inflation outlook. The kiwi now is at a 10 week high as it looks to go higher. We see this as strange with the only reason price is not at 0.6600 purely on offshore risk bias. We don’t expect this to last especially not given the dovish RBNZ and rate cuts on the horizon. Converting NZD into USD represents very good value now.
The current interbank midrate is: NZDUSD 0.6702
The interbank range this week has been: NZDUSD 0.6583- 0.6706
The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) has pushed aside the two-week high of 0.6604 Tuesday against the US Dollar (USD) after risk markets seem reasonably buoyed by recent events. NZ Trade Balance figures for May printed at 264M from the 200M we were expecting, boosting the kiwi to 0.6630. Wednesday’s RBNZ cash rate announcement is the market focus this week with comments from Orr on future monetary policy key to NZD immediate direction. Anything less than unmistakably dovish could see the kiwi push north and retest 0.6700. US quarterly GDP which is expected to print higher at 3.1% over the first quarter result of 2.2% is well below the 5.0% Trump predicted, and could send the greenback lower on a poor result early Friday morning
Current Level: 0.6635
Last Weeks Range: 0.6490-0.6639
I never would have imagined seeing a complete U turn in the New Zealand Dollar accentuate this week like it has against the US Dollar (USD). Pegging back just about all of last week’s losses we have seen the kiwi rally to 0.6590 Friday. A number of key factors have contributed to buyers back in the kiwi – The Fed all but announcing they would cut rates on the 1st of August, a positive first quarter NZ GDP release and a speculation US and Chinese officials will positively resolve the war on trade late next week at the G20 meeting. We think the kiwi will continue to creep higher as long as geopolitical worries don’t come back to haunt market risk sentiment. For now, it looks like the NZD won’t retract back towards the early week lows around 0.6500. Buying USD clearly represents good buying.
The current interbank midrate is: NZDUSD 0.6588
The interbank range this week has been: NZDUSD 0.6489- 0.6595
The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) sits perched at Monday’s session lows against the US Dollar (USD) around 0.6495 after briefly tracking to 0.6487 Friday. Massive support sits at 0.6480 the 23 May low, below this is the long-term support area around 0.6425 the January 2016 low. The big dollar took a hit overnight from the manufacturing sector where business activity has taken a sharp turn downward with the Empire State manufacturing index falling -8.6 the largest drop on record. This clearly has dented optimism. The Federal Reserve Funds Rate is Thursday 6.00am NZT and should report a dovish stance when they keep the rate unchanged until at least July. NZ quarterly GDP prints Thursday. Watch for further downside momentum if the Fed are overly dovish.
Current Level: 0.6498
Last Weeks Range: 0.6488-0.6617
The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) has continued to deteriorate and reverse last week’s gains against the US Dollar (USD) trading to 0.6558 Friday lunch. US CPI increased to 0.1% in May on a seasonally adjusted basis after rising 0.3% in May, the greenback was put under pressure momentarily but overall overnight the kiwi has retained its weakness. US Retail Sales prints later tonight. Focus locally next week will fall to first quarter NZ GDP and the Fed Funds rate and statement. Geopolitical headlines will also continue to drive markets, clients looking to convert USD to NZD should consider at these extremely low levels.
The current interbank midrate is: NZDUSD 0.6542
The interbank range this week has been: NZDUSD 0.6524- 0.6625
Just as quick as the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) registered a fresh high of 0.6680 it retraced earlier gains to close the week at 0.6665. Momentum has continued into Tuesday with risk averse sentiment replacing the buoyant mood of last week. A softer US Dollar (USD) was the theme after NFP- Non-Farm Payroll figures disappointed publishing at an underwhelming 75,000 compared to the 177,000 expected assisting the kiwi higher. This week sees a moderately busy week on the data docket with US CPI m/m Thursday followed by Friday’s US Retail Sales. Geopolitical headlines should continue to drive movement. Sellers of USD should consider current levels around 0.6600 after the spike lower off the recent high.
Current Level: 0.6609
Last Weeks Range: 0.6575-0.6681
The NZ dollar punched above its weight last night, rising to a high of 0.6665 against the USD on the back of a mild recovery in risk-on tone allied to a softer USD after the weaker than expected ADP employment data.
With little in the way of local data releases over the rest of this week we expect the NZD to remain around current levels driven by offshore events ahead of tomorrow’s US Non-Farm payrolls figure.
The NZD/USD has slipped back to around the 0.6614 level and should hold above the 0.6600 short term support level , if broken next support is around 0.6550 …upside moves should be held at last night’s 0.6665 high…..Look for choppy trading into next week as the trade war headlines continue to dominate currency direction with any ventures of the Kiwi into the 0.6675-0.6720 seen as a selling opportunity.
The current interbank midrate is: NZDUSD 0.6620
The interbank range this week has been: NZDUSD 0.6524- 0.6666
US Dollar (USD) strength overnight has kept the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) on the backfoot trading lower from 0.6550 to 0.6520. Support for the kiwi is starting to look questionable with the recent bearish trend channel resuming as risk markets teeter. Equity and commodity markets all took tumbles, the DOW down almost 1.0% as the Chinese made comments in the trade war that rages on between China and US negotiators. “Don’t say we didn’t warn you” – words from an official Communist Party of China, titled – “United States, don’t underestimate China’s ability to strike back.” There have only been two other occasions when China has said these words, in 1962 before China’s border war with India and in 1979 ahead of the 1979 Vietnam War. Yikes – we could see the trade war get a whole lot worse, damaging world growth a longer period than we thought. The kiwi looks to retest the low of 0.6480 with US prelim GDP printing tonight.
The current interbank midrate is: NZDUSD 0.6514
The interbank range this week has been: NZDUSD 0.6504- 0.6558
The Federal Reserve minutes released late last week only served to reinforce the current “patient” stance of the US central bank. In other words, they view a wait and see approach to fundamentals / economic data before making a shift to policy either way. The NZDUSD traded to a cycle low of 0.6482 Thursday, but then staged a solid bounce back up over 0.6500 after US data disappointed. With the kiwi breaking above key bearish channel momentum to the topside through 0.6540 this could signal further price action north this week. The pair is still trading around the weekly open of 0.6550 after thin markets yesterday with US holiday – Memorial Day keeping trading volume light. We don’t expect any wild swings over the week with little data to release offering impact. RBNZ Financial Stability Report and ANZ Business Confidence publish tomorrow ahead of Thursday’s US prelim q/q GDP. Big picture downside bias is still the theme, buyers of USD don’t get to greedy looking for mush above current levels. Thursdays NZ “Wellbeing” budget should have little impact on the kiwi.
Current Level: 0.6547
Last Weeks Range: 0.6480-0.6455
The New Zealand dollar (NZD) has been under pressure for much of the week against the United States dollar (USD), on the back of continued negative risk sentiment. The US Fed minutes release yesterday morning only served to reinforce the current “patient” stance of the US central bank, while NZ retail sales data on Wednesday came in close to market expectations at 0.7% and had little market impact. The NZDUSD traded to a cycle low of 0.6482 overnight Thursday, but then staged a decent bounce back up over 0.6500 after disappointing US data. That bounce saw the NZDUSD test key downtrend resistance at 0.6525 early this morning, but so far that’s managed to cap the pair. Until we get a sustained move above 0.6525, the dominant downtrend remains in place and the risks are skewed toward further NZD losses. That being said, clients looking to convert USD to NZD shouldn’t get too greedy as this entire trend is starting to get a little “long in the tooth”. Stop-loss orders will likely be collecting somewhere above 0.6525 and if the market managed to break above that level and trigger some stops, a sharp recover toward 0.6580 or even 0.6600 could eventuate. Major downside support is seen at 0.6425, being the 2018 low, but that’s still reasonably far away at this stage.
The current interbank midrate is: NZDUSD 0.6515
The interbank range this week has been: NZDUSD 0.6481- 0.6546
The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) bounced around like a homeless ping pong ball for most of last week overall depreciating further against the US Dollar (USD) posting a fresh yearly low of 0.6514. The risk averse mood seemed to dissipate Monday morning with the pair reaching 0.6546 before easing Tuesday back towards 0.6530. Solid US Data continues to drive buyers into the greenback with improving (UoM) University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment releasing at 102.4 base on the 97.8 market forecasts. This is the strongest reading in 15 years and shows an upbeat outlook towards the US economy through 2020. Fed chair Powell spoke about rising concerns in corporate debt levels saying the corporate borrowings behaviour closely resembled the subprime mortgage boom leading up to the 2008 crash. The Fed is not about to raise the cash rate any time soon.
Current Level: 0.6537
Last Weeks Range: 0.6513-0.6602
The New Zealand dollar (NZD) had a wild ride over the past 12 hours or so, but it’s ultimately ended up trading at the weeks lows against the United States dollar (USD), early on Friday morning. Solid US data and continuing US – China trade concerns have kept the pressure on the Kiwi, although last night’s weakness was a little hard to justify with stocks and commodities (the so called “risk” indicators) all making gains. In that sort of positive risk environment the NZD usually does pretty well. What may well be weighing on the NZD is a rapidly declining Chinese yuan, that looks to be heading back to the 2018 lows. In the current environment of heightened trade concerns, the NZD is going to remain vulnerable to periods of sharp weakness. The next key downside support area is the October 2018 low of 0.6425.
The current interbank midrate is: NZDUSD 0.6535
The interbank range this week has been: NZDUSD 0.6532 – 0.6611
In the wake of a rate cut from 1.75% to 1.5% last week the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) has remained reasonably resilient against the US Dollar (USD). At one stage post the RBNZ announcement the pair travelled to 0.6527 before reversing back. The big story is the breakdown between US negotiators and Chinese negotiators, the Trump govt has given China a month to secure a deal or face tariffs on not only the current 200B worth of Chinese products but the entire exports of 525B adding an additional 325b to the table. Secretary Mnuchin has said there is no further follow up discussion between parties to take place. Markets continue to be risk averse, the DOW, Nasdaq and S&P have all dropped over 2.5% in the overnight sessions. A quiet week of data sees only US Retail Sales Thursday and later Building permits. Risk will dictate general flow over the rest of the week.
Current Level: 0.6581
Last Weeks Range: 0.6526-0.6630
The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) fall to a fresh 2019 low of 0.6525 against the US Dollar this week after the Reserve Bank of New Zealand cut the benchmark rate from 1.75% to 1.50%.
The RBNZ surprised markets in a unanimous vote by the new RBNZ monetary policy committee. Comments which followed from Adrian Orr suggested this was necessary to counteract the outlook for employment and low inflation. The committee wanted to get ahead of the game plan. We see rates remaining unchanged until early 2020 where they will drop another 25 points to 1.25% before climbing again in 2022. Adding to the NZD worries is the heated situation in the trade war between the US and China with Trump unhappy with the way the Chinese have reacted to parts of the negotiated deal. Markets turned risk averse with further talks to take place again tomorrow. We expect the bearish momentum for the kiwi to continue into next week especially if US Core CPI m/m prints up tonight.
The current interbank midrate is: NZDUSD 0.6600
The interbank range this week has been: NZDUSD 0.6525- 0.6630
The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) holds just above the yearly low of 0.6580 against the US Dollar (USD) trading at 0.6608 currently. Risk currencies were hit on the weekly open with trade tariff concerns back on the table with Trump looking at raising the current tariff from 10% to 25% this Friday, spooking markets. Reversing off last week’s high of 0.6680 when NZ unemployment figures released down on predictions, downside momentum remains ahead of the RBNZ rate announcement tomorrow. Probability lies at 50/50 for a cut with all eyes focusing on the monetary policy to gauge further direction. We think Orr will confirm a wait and see style approach cutting later in the year – but with inflation continuing to drop to 1.5% in the first quarter of 2019 who knows. Clients looking to convert NZD to USD should consider at current levels with risks swayed to the downside.
Current Level: 0.6605
Last Weeks Range: 0.6598-0.6684
The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) has been heavy over the week trading down to 0.6615 Friday. Weak Chinese Manufacturing data affected any chance of the NZD continuing last week’s bullish momentum. US Dollar strength through ADP data and less than optimistic NZ job’s report left the kiwi battling into Thursday. The Federal Reserve left rates unchanged at 2.5% as expected with the Powell’s reports hinting that the next review would not be a rate cut. Non-farm Payroll comes in overnight and is expected to release a figure around 180k in line with March figures. Next week’s RBNZ cash rate and monetary review is looking to be one of the more awaited editions with chances viewed currently at 50/50 call for a cut.
The current interbank midrate is: NZDUSD 0.6618
The interbank range this week has been: NZDUSD 0.6607- 0.6684
The New Zealand Dollar lost ground last week slumping to 0.6580 against the US Dollar (USD) trading to the lowest level in 2019. Greenback strength as well as a sympathy fall on the back of poor Aussie CPI data also impacted the extended fall tracking back several weeks. The bearish decline from 0.6920 in late March gathers pace. With prospects of the RBNZ cutting rates at the next meeting on May 8th we see limited upside in the kiwi. NZ Employment data publishes Wednesday followed by a slew of US based data releases including the main weekly focus of the Fed rate announcements followed by (NFP) Non Farm Payroll Friday night. Price in the pair should hold above the 0.6420 low of September 2018 but anything could happen with so much influencing price in the short to medium term.
Current Level: 0.6664
Last Weeks Range: 0.6580-0.6681
The New Zealand dollar (NZD) continues to lose ground against the United States dollar (USD), trading to the lowest level since January overnight, at 0.6629. While the move in the past 12 hours has come on the back of broad based USD strength, the NZD is not helped by the prospect of an interest rate cut from the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBZN) at their upcoming May 8 meeting. That will limit any potential bounce in the NZDUSD over the near term. We expect the pair to remain broadly under pressure, as we head into that meeting. There is little on the economic calendar from NZ this week so the focus will be on US data in the form of Durable Goods Orders and Advance GDP. The outlook for the US economy over the rest of the year is positive and a good GDP figure will help the USD advance further.
Current Level: 0.6653
Last Weeks Range: 0.6629-0.6748
A firmer USD and mixed Global Dairy auction results saw the NZD drift lower in overnight trading before retracing higher prior to the CPI data to the 0.6770 mark. The lower than expected Q1 CPI figure at 0.1%, year-on-year 1.5% against a forecast of 0.3% for the quarter and 1.75 y/y knocked the NZD sharply lower to 0.6681, as this data increases speculation of a RBNZ rate cut next month. In our view this is not yet warranted but be prepared for offshore markets to cut NZD positions.
Current Level: 0.6706
Last Weeks Range: 0.6712-0.6781
With a lack of significant economic data this week at home, the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) reached a high of 0.6775 on risk support as risk assets edged higher through Wednesday. US CPI m/m published at 0.4% from the 0.3% markets were expecting showing a rise on February figures of 0.2%. More importantly US jobs claims or the number of people filing for unemployment in March published at a 50 year low at 196,000 – the lowest reading since October 1969. This brought US Dollar strength back to the markets with most currencies giving up gains as the kiwi did with a stiff reversal back to 0.6720 levels midday Friday. NZ quarterly CPI prints on Wednesday followed by US Retail Sales Friday and Good Friday holiday.
The current interbank midrate is: NZDUSD 0.6724
The interbank range this week has been: NZDUSD 0.6713- 0.6773
The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) struggled all week against the buoyant US Dollar (USD) dropping to 0.6720 after US Non-Farm Payroll released. US Jobs data printed solid results which show the US economy is sound – just. Unemployment remained the same at 3.8% and the number of employed people surprised markets coming in at 196,000 from 177,000 expected rebounding from poor February numbers. These figures will make the Fed happy they won’t need to shift policy for the next while and will keep a watchful, patient eye on how jobs growth develops. US CPI m/m prints Thursday along with a bunch of Fed speakers towards the end of the week. A key driver – FOMC meeting Minutes comes out Thursday morning. Technically the kiwi lost its bullish status when it recently travelled below 0.6800 below the 2019 trendline. Currently sitting at 0.6740 this is just above big support at 0.6720
Current Level: 0.6739
Last Weeks Range: 0.6718-0.6798
The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) dropped off the bat to 0.6738 after weak NZ Business confidence for the first quarter 2019 showed that businesses are more dispirited over 2019 economic prospects. The kiwi returned briefly to 0.6790 on another great global dairy auction (9th positive result in succession) but was unable to push ahead after risk sentiment shifted negative returning to 0.6750. The White House has signalled an end is nigh in the US/China trade disputes which has been rolling on for around a year now. High level negotiations have been in progress this week with Trump saying “it’s got to be a great deal”. US NFP- Non-Farm Payroll is now the focus early tomorrow morning with 175,000 new jobs expected to be added to the US workforce. Big support in the cross sits at 0.6700 we think this should hold for a while longer.
The current interbank midrate is: NZDUSD 0.6754
The interbank range this week has been: NZDUSD 0.6837- 0.6738
The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) recovered slightly after last week’s dovish RBNZ statement when it bottomed out at 0.6733 against the US Dollar (USD), bouncing to 0.6840 Tuesday morning as risk sentiment improved. Equity markets pushed higher with the DOW, Nasdaq and S&P all going over 1% higher on the day. NZ Institute of Economic Research Business Confidence released lower than investors were predicting at -29 this morning with first quarter growth expected at 0.4% based on the RBNZ expecting 0.8%. The kiwi dropped from 0.6800 to 0.6775 on the release which has spurred the ASB bank to bring forward their outlook for a rate cut to May and August from August and November. Attention now turns to tonight’s Global Dairy Auction. Technically we expect the NZD to depreciate and retest support of 0.6750
Current Level: 0.6787
Last Weeks Range: 0.6774-0.6923
The RBNZ governor Orr sent the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) over 1 cent lower on Wednesday’s cash rate release. The NZD plummeted against the US Dollar to 0.6795 from 0.6912 after the RBNZ surprised markets with a shift from neutral policy to dovish with the Orr suggesting the next rate change will be lower mid to late this year we expect. ANZ business confidence for March was slightly under what analysts were expecting highlighting a view that the New Zealand economy is losing momentum. Fourth quarter US GDP came in at 2.2% down on the 2.4% expected with growth likely to be forecast lower fuelling further talk of possible Fed rate cuts. Technically the cross has broken below the bullish 2019 trendline this week, expect a further pullback in NZD.
The current interbank midrate is: NZDUSD 0.6780
The interbank range this week has been: NZDUSD 0.6773- 0.6924
The New Zealand (NZD) and other risk associated currencies have tracked higher off the weekly open against the US Dollar (USD) to 0.6910 currently. After President Trump was cleared of his Russian collusion investigation sentiment improved. Time now we expect will be spent on further cementing a proper US/China trade deal, the timing couldn’t be better for the president, he may hold a tougher stance in trade discussions as he now isn’t as desperate for a policy win. Tomorrow’s RBNZ cash rate announcement will hold local interest with the rate expected to remain unchanged at 1.75% for a while longer – Adrian Ore’s policy may be tweaked based on recent economic data, we expect a dovish stance. Price is inching towards the yearly high of 0.6940 and may get there if RBNZ allows.
Current Level: 0.6916
Last Weeks Range: 0.6827-0.6938
The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) meandered around 0.6850 against the US Dollar (USD) until Thursday’s Fed cash rate announcement rallied the currency to 0.6940. The Fed left their overnight rate at 2.50% but Powell gave a dovish speech suggesting no further hikes this year with prospects that a cut could be on the cards late 2019 or early 2020. Markets bought more NZD four hours later when NZ quarterly GDP printed at 0.6% – markets were pricing in a lower figure. Price turned lower at resistance above 0.6940 with the kiwi giving back most of the gains overnight, after uncertainty over US-China trade put an end to the kiwi run. Currently we are trading at 0.6880 with a RBNZ rate review firmly now in focus next Wednesday.
The current interbank midrate is: NZDUSD 0.6885
The interbank range this week has been: NZDUSD 0.6827- 0.6938
A lack of data last week on the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) calendar has seen the currency push higher on general US Dollar (USD) weakness to 0.6875, before easing back slightly. We will see more Fed policy speak Thursday when Fed chairman Powell leaves the federal funds rate at 2.50% and talks about a cautious approach to raising rates, pointing to the govt shutdown and financial market uncertainty as the reasons for possibly not hiking again in 2019. NZ quarterly GDP is expected to come in at 0.6% on Thursday’s reading and should bring a rise from the December quarter’s 0.3%. The kiwi looks capped at 0.6900 with risks skewed to the downside.
Current Level: 0.6845
Last Weeks Range: 0.6808-0.6873
The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) reached a high this week of 0.6872 in a continuation of last week US Dollar (USD) broad weakness, stemming from disheartening NFP figures not to mention a dovish slant from Fed chair Powell. Dips are well supported ahead of 0.6700 with a view to further upside. Only a break to the downside below 0.6500 would put further focus on the multi month low from October 2018 of 0.6420. A push through 0.6900 would cement any constructive NZ economic outlook. Next week we have Westpac consumer sentiment, current account and quarterly GDP along with the all important federal Funds Cash rate which is due to remain unchanged at 2.50%
The current interbank midrate is: NZDUSD 0.6834
The interbank range this week has been: NZDUSD 0.6787- 0.6872
The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) received a boost Friday after broad based declines in the US Dollar (USD) took the kiwi off the low of 0.6744 to close at 0.6800. This week the theme has continued with a mix of “risk on” sentiment based on Brexit positiveness before tomorrow’s vote and big dollar sellers. Fed chairman Powell said the Fed was in no hurry to change interest rates again and will watch how the slowing economy progresses. Brexit headlines will hold market focus over the remaining week, we suspect sentiment will change tomorrow and take the kiwi back below 0.6800.
Current Level: 0.6831
Last Weeks Range: 0.6745-0.6839
The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) had nothing on the economic docket this week allowing offshore influences to sway direction. The kiwi joined the Aussie bear party midweek as a terrible run of AUD data was published which helped dropped the kiwi to 0.6744 from its weekly opening price of 0.6820. After the ECB announced a downgrade to their 2019-2020 inflation and growth forecast markets turned risk averse putting added pressure on the NZD heading into (NFP) Non-Farm Payroll tonight. 0.6700 is the yearly low (except the 3 Jan drop) and looks solid for now.
The current interbank midrate is: NZDUSD 0.6759
The interbank range this week has been: NZDUSD 0.6744- 0.6826
Risk sentiment improved over the weekend when positive comments came out of meetings between US negotiators and Chinese officials regarding a trade truce for now as Trump halted ramping up tariffs on 200 Billion worth of Chinese products. The New Zealand Dollar started the week well peaking at 0.6827 before easing back slightly after equity markets all printed down on the day. A very quiet week for the kiwi should see the currency pushed around a bit via offshore influences before (NFP) Non Farm Payroll prints later in the week. 185k is the number we are expecting to be added to the US workforce – can they go three positive months in a row which has not been done since January 2016. A number of Fed officials will take to the stage as well as the chairman Powell to discuss and review monetary policy. We think the kiwi could go higher this week following on with its recent series of higher lows and higher highs.
Current Level: 0.6819
Last Weeks Range: 0.6794-0.6901
The New Zealand Dollar drifted off its high of 0.6902 Wednesday against the US Dollar (USD) after risk sentiment deteriorated. Excitement over early week trade talks between China and the US disappeared as a potential negotiated deal was scaled back. NZ Trade Balance didn’t help reporting a deficit of 914 Million which turns out to be the largest deficit for a January month on record. ANZ Business confidence also showed a pessimistic view of business growth over the next year also offered no assistance to the kiwi dropping to 0.6800 Friday. Overnight US GDP jumped by 1 Trillion in 2018 as Trumps dream of 3% plus came true based on tax cuts and huge federal spending which acted as stimulus to the American economy. This release was delayed a month based on the US Govt shutdown. Fed chairman speaks tomorrow morning. The pair is trading at the bottom of a bullish channel and looks to push higher over coming days if economic data and risk allows.
The current interbank midrate is: NZDUSD 0.6813
The interbank range this week has been: NZDUSD 0.6795- 0.6602
Monday prices extended last week’s New Zealand Dollar (NZD) rally against the US Dollar (USD) after positive news surfaced in recent Washington trade meetings. Late Friday sessions saw the NZD bottom out at 0.6755 and return through 0.6800 to close the week at 0.6840. Retail Sales printed well up on the expected 0.5% at 1.7% with the kiwi reaching a fresh high of 0.6900 before drifting back to 0.6880 Tuesday lunch. This week’s US Consumer confidence followed by ANZ Business confidence should move the price. Fed chairman Powell should reiterate the current monetary path on Friday prior to manufacturing data publishing. The NZD has a bit of work to get through before reaching the yearly high of 0.6945 area but if positive trade headlines continue who knows.
Current Level: 0.6882
Last Week’s Range: 0.6758-0.6901
The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) travelled lower in sympathy with yesterday’s terrible AUD performance depreciating 70 points or roughly 1.0% against the US Dollar (USD) to 0.6805. The Australian Coal import ban China has imposed has hit the kiwi nearly as hard as risk sentiment drives the NZD/USD to fresh lows. The kiwi looks well supported above the 0.6800 level ever since the RBNZ’s less than dovish view on the NZ economy last week. US Equities have closed the day half a percent lower as markets become nervous for results in the Washington trade talks between China and US officials taking place now. US Core durable goods figures were surprisingly down overnight when US made goods fell for the month of December showing a slowdown in business spending that could ultimately derail US growth. We see no need to panic yet for buyers of USD, remember we started out 2019 at 0.6650.
The current interbank midrate is: NZDUSD 0.6803
The interbank range this week has been: NZDUSD 0.6796- 0.6893
The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) is over 1.60% stronger than the US Dollar (USD) to 0.6890 after US dollar broad weakness and RBNZ comments. The kiwi has benefited from positive risk sentiment after what looked to be a step in the right direction in Beijing as US and Chinese negotiators came closer to an agreement on tariffs. The deadline date of March 2nd when tariffs will go from 10% to 25% for the Chinese could possibly be moved out Trump has said. Thin Monday sessions have taken the kiwi off the high easing back to 0.6850. Zero data on the NZ calendar this week means the kiwi could be pushed along via offshore action, US Fed speakers will speak later in the week mainly on monetary policy.
Current Level: 0.6848
Last Weeks Range: 0.6718-0.6893
After the biggest single week’s move a week ago to a low of 0.6740, lowest since late October 2018, the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) has regained just about all its losses trading back to 0.6855 through this Friday. In a surprising turn of events the market got it so wrong when Adrian Orr stepped to the plate Wednesday and delivered a surprisingly LESS dovish picture of the NZ economy. The RBNZ left the cash rate unchanged at 1.75% but Orr wasn’t prepared just yet to downgrade the outlook like other central banks have done lately instead saying the economy was well balanced. We still think the next shuffle from the RBNZ will be down but this more than likely won’t happen until late 2020. US Retail Sales printed overnight with the data surprisingly poor at -1.2% compared to the 0.1% markets were predicting. This took a little risk out of the market taking the kiwi off its high. US Presidents Day holiday Monday will bring a slow start to the week.
The current interbank midrate is: NZDUSD 0.6818
The interbank range this week has been: NZDUSD 0.6719- 0.6855
The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) is trading at a low of 0.6730 against the US Dollar (USD) as recent NZD stability has stalled over the past week. This week’s RBNZ statement on Wednesday is firmly the focus, we should see no change to the current 1.75% but the tone of Adrian Orr’s monetary statement will be dissected carefully by investors to confirm recent rhetoric around downside risks and how offshore trade related uncertainties will impact the Kiwi. US/ China trade talks will resume later this week in Beijing aimed at resolving the trade war as it continues to threaten global economic growth. Risk appetite will be key to any upside momentum in the kiwi.
Current level: 0.6730
Last Week’s Range: 0.6726-0.6904
The US Dollar (USD) has outperformed the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) this week, midday Friday current the price sits around 0.6750 after opening the week at 0.6900. With mixed kiwi data and a risk off mood after equities were down over 1.5% the kiwi has failed to fire and build momentum from last week’s performance. NZ employment data numbers failed to impress, posting a 4.3% unemployment rate along with a poor wage growth reading. If wage inflation remains subdued the OCR could go lower later in the year from the current 1.75%. Next week we have the RBNZ cash rate and statement which will remain unchanged for now along with some key US data releases, significantly monthly CPI.
Current Level: 0.6826
Last Weeks Range: 0.6705-0.6844