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NZD to EUR – Euro to New Zealand Dollars

When converting New Zealand dollars to Euro (NZD to EUR), or EUR to NZD, by exchanging via Direct FX, you will save a significant amount of money. Our wholesale currency exchange rates for money transfers are significantly more competitive than bank foreign exchange rates. Being Australasian based, we specialise in knowing what drives NZD to EUR currency conversion rates.

NZD to EUR Overview: The NZD is regarded as a “growth currency”, and will therefore generally appreciate when the global economic outlook is positive. Whilst he EURO encompasses is a melting pot of countries, its overall performance is heavily driven by the economic fortunes of Germany, and its manufacturing base. Whilst the economies of New Zealand and the Euro zone individually have little in common, the NZD to EUR exchange rate remains a relatively stable one, when compared to others. The EURO will be interesting to watch as it challenges the USD as the global reserve currency.

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Historical Ranges: 1 year 5 years 10 years
NZD/EUR .5578 – .6139 .0.5549 – .7204 .3875 – .7206
EUR/NZD 1.6288 – 1.7929 1.3881 -1.8022 1.3878 – 2.5820

Current Official Cash Rates:
Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ): 0.25%         European Central Bank (ECB): 0.00%

ECB’s Lagarde spoke midweek on monetary policy issues facing the economy, her comments helped boost the Euro to 0.5550 (1.8020) before a massive reversal shift to the price took place. The kiwi recovered losses to 0.5650 (1.7700) as risk mood improved overnight as hopes of a stimulus deal in the US improved. Eurozone manufacturing prints tonight with expectations of recent pick-ups in the sector. Looking into next week we have ECB rate announcement and monetary policy announcements and Australian CPI for the September quarter.
Exchange Rate
The current interbank midrate is: NZDEUR 0.5649 EURNZD 1.7702
The interbank range this week has been: NZDEUR 0.5549- 0.5659 EURNZD 1.7669- 1.8020

The Euro has pushed higher on the weekly open to 0.5610 (1.7820) against the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) as risk sentiment deteriorates. Market sentiment remains risk averse with the US fiscal stimulus plan a long way from being done and further halts to vaccine trials at Eli Lilly dampening mood. NZ CPI for the quarter ending September prints Friday with predictions of a half decent result which could lead to questions being raised with negative rates predicted at the RBNZ later in 2020 or early 2021 and if they are indeed required. Eurozone manufacturing for France and Germany release at the week’s end. On the chart price is still moving within recent ranges, we need to see a break below 0.5600 (1.7880) on the downside to mark a fresh trend change.
Exchange Rate
Current Level: 0.5601 (1.7854)
Resistance: 0.5680 (1.7960)
Support: 0.5570 (1.7610)
Last Weeks Range: 0.5598-0.5687 (1.7583-1.7862)

It’s been a game of two halves this week in the New Zealand Dollar (NZD), Euro (EUR) pair with price shifting to 0.5680 (1.7600) early in the week and back to 0.5625 (1.7780) into Fridays sessions, the EUR recovering all its losses. Sentiment turned from risk on to risk off Wednesday after headline news suggesting a US coronavirus fiscal package was unlikely to be negotiated prior to the US presidential election. The ECB continues to hint at rate cuts, and coronavirus lockdown restrictions are back with new cases on the rise across Euroland. With a lack of data we should see the cross bounce around in recent ranges for a few days.
Exchange Rate
The current interbank midrate is: NZDEUR 0.5630 EURNZD 1.7761
The interbank range this week has been: NZDEUR 0.5621- 0.5686 EURNZD 1.7584- 1.7789

It’s a very thin week of data in the Euro (EUR), New Zealand Dollar (NZD) pair with nothing significant publishing. Add in a US holiday Monday and the NZ election this weekend and we are likely to see very little movement in this cross. Movement into Tuesday has seen a little buyer action in the Euro with price hovering around 0.5630 (1.7770) from the 0.5635 (1.7745) open. Strangely however we should have seen a bounce higher in the kiwi with equity levels up around 2.0% overnight but this hasn’t happened. With the ECB saying they are forecasting a deeper recession on coronavirus effects, we could see investors back into the kiwi.
Exchange Rate
Current Level: 0.5626 (1.7775)
Resistance: 0.5675 (1.7950)
Support: 0.5570 (1.7620)
Last Weeks Range: 0.5567-0.5650 (1.7700-1.7964)

Although through most of the week risk mood has been solid the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) has come off against the Euro to 1.7960 Thursday. Friday’s turn of sentiment took the price back to 1.7850 into Friday. The release of the disappointing German Trade balance report for August contributed to the Euro demise with exports up 2.4% and imports up just 5.8% on July numbers. Countries across Europe are seeing a resurgence of coronavirus cases after successfully slowing down the virus earlier in the year, Germany had things under control earlier in the month but are also experiencing fresh spikes. Moves in the cross should be limited to recent ranges heading into the weekend.
Exchange Rate
The current interbank midrate is: NZDEUR 0.5604 EURNZD 1.7844
The interbank range this week has been: NZDEUR 0.5567- 0.5674 EURNZD 1.7622- 1.7962

The Euro (EUR) turned on a dime off 0.5675 (1.7620) – the weekly close spiking to 0.5635 (1.7750) against the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) into Tuesday trading. EC president Ursula von Der Leyen and Boris Johnson offered encouraging comments in their optimism around getting a Brexit deal done with investors showing support buying Euro. Coronavirus cases in the EU region are spiking again to alarming levels with just 4 countries not measuring below critical threshold. Only Germany, Finland, Cyprus and Norway have things under control. Looking ahead on the calendar we have a thin week of economic data with just ECB’s Lagarde speaking. 0.5610 (1.7820) is key support for the kiwi e don’t expect a break below this area this week.
Exchange Rate
Current Level:0.5641 (1.7727)
Resistance: 0.5720 (1.7860)
Support: 0.5600 (1.7480)
Last Weeks Range: 0.5606-0.5679 (1.7610-1.7838)

NZD/EUR movement has been higher over the week from 0.5605 to 0.5666 mainly on the continuing mess that the Brexit negotiations have become. The Covid-19 cases continue to increase within the Eurozone and last news that Madrid had gone back to lockdown was not encouraging of a return to normal and better economic EU data. NZ looks to be solid on this cross and we look for a test of 0.5685 next week which if broken will target 0.5730, support around 0.5605 unlikely to be threatened over the week.
Exchange Rate
The current interbank midrate is: NZDEUR 0.5658 EURNZD 1.7674
The interbank range this week has been: NZDEUR 0.5606- 0.5670 EURNZD 1.7636- 1.7836

The Eurozone has been hit by a double whammy of increasing Covid-19 cases and lacklustre economic data, with ECB head Lagarde commenting that the ECB “continues to stand ready to adjust all of its instruments, as appropriate”, as the region’s coronavirus resurgence threatens the economic progress made since lockdowns. Further increases of the ECB’s bond-buying programme are expected in November. Annual inflation for the Eurozone fell into negative territory in August for the first time in four years, with Lagarde describing the ECB’s projection that it will average 1.3% in 2022 as “not satisfactory”. While the NZD has its own problems, those of the Eurozone look more systemic and should contribute to the NZD to holding above support around the 0.5580 level. Currently trading around the 0.5618 mark , the 0.5600-0.5650 range should hold for the next few days.
Exchange Rate
Current Level: 0.5617 (1.7803)
Resistance: 0.5650 (1.7870)
Support: 0.5595 (1.7700)
Last Weeks Range: 0.5595-0.5717 (1.7490-1.7870)

The New Zealand dollar (NZD) has been under pressure from the Euro (EUR) since the opening bell of this week. A broad “risk off” sentiment in the market has been the major driver as US equities have also posted significant losses weighing on all riskier assets. The NZD underperformance has come even in the face of disappointing Euro area economic data. French and German Manufacturing PMI’s both printed sub 50, signalling contraction in the sector, and the German IFO business climate index for September also printed lower than forecast at 93.4, vs 93.8 expected. While we can’t rule out further declines for the NZDEUR pair, it is looking like it may well have gone far enough in the near term a period of consolidation should be expected. Last night’s low of 0.5594 may well be as good as it gets for NZD buyers over the coming days. Any potential recovery in the cross however, is going to run into resistance around 0.5665.
Exchange Rate
The current interbank midrate is: NZDEUR 0.5611 EURNZD 1.7822
The interbank range this week has been: NZDEUR 0.5595 – 0.5731 EURNZD 1.7448 – 1.74874

Markets turned risk off Monday on coronavirus fears taking the New Zealand Dollar (NZD), Euro (EUR) cross to 0.5665 (1.7650) into Tuesday. During late Friday trading the cross met the long term resistance at 0.5730 (1.7450) from late July but failed to kick on. It’s reported the ECB has launched a review of its coronavirus pandemic bond buying program to work out how long it should continue and whether its flexibility should be included in older programs. This week’s attention is on the RBNZ policy and cash rate announcement. A dovish read by governor Orr is widely predicted, this may be already priced into the curve, however risk sentiment could damage the ability for the kiwi to kick on. We think price could retest the fortnight low of 0.5620 (1.7800)
Exchange Rate
Current Level: 0.5664 (1.7655)
Resistance: 0.5725 (1.7800)
Support: 0.5620 (1.7470)
Last Weeks Range: 0.5632-0.5732 (1.7447-1.7757)

It’s been a one way ticket to ride this week in the New Zealand Dollar (NZD), Euro (EUR) pair with price all kiwi supportive travelling from 0.5630 (1.7760) Monday into Friday to 0.5705 (1.7530). Second quarter NZ GDP was overall a non-event in terms of currency movement as figures showed a -12.2% decline to the 3 months ending 30th June just off estimates of -12.5%. This marks the second time in a decade NZ has entered a recession after the 2008 GFC and the worst quarter of growth since records began. Here’s looking at third quarter figures for a strong rebound. Resistance looks to be 0.5715 (1.7500), a break through here for the NZD and the kiwi is staring at 0.5830 (1.7150)
Exchange Rate
The current interbank midrate is: NZDEUR 0.5710 EURNZD 1.7513
The interbank range this week has been: NZDEUR 0.5630- 0.5716 EURNZD 1.7492- 1.7760

Last week the ECB left their policy on hold with an upbeat tone by failing to address concerns with the high Euro (EUR) as many thought. However, Monday’s action has seen the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) look like it wants to push ahead as risk conditions improve and equity indices went higher overnight. Positive headlines involving coronavirus vaccines are also helping mood. Pfizer is planning to increase its phase 3 trials from 30,000 to 44,000, expected to be completed in October. The company hopes to roll out vaccines by the end of the year. We have very little on the board this week as attention is firmly on second quarter NZ GDP releasing Thursday. Until then the pair should be confined to recent ranges around 0.5650 (1.7690)
Exchange Rate
Current Level: 0.5636 (1.7743)
Resistance: 0.5720 (1.8130)
Support: 0.5515 (1.7480)
Last Weeks Range: 0.5608-0.5674 (1.7623-1.7832)

The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) extended falls Thursday against the Euro (EUR) after the ECB came out hawkish with the price reaching 0.5610 (1.7830). ECB’s Lagarde left interest rates unchanged and downplayed concerns over the recent rally in the currency. The Covid bond buying program was unchanged at 1.35trillion with the deposit rate remaining at -0.50%. However the current 2020 forecast was revised up slightly with the economy expected to slump by 8.0% instead of the previous forecast of 8.7% but the 2021 forecast was revised down from +5.2% to 5.0%. The Euro may push higher heading into the close. Looking ahead we have key NZ data next Thursday with second quarter GDP releasing.
Exchange Rate
The current interbank midrate is: NZDEUR 0.5625 EURNZD 1.7777
The interbank range this week has been: NZDEUR 0.5607- 0.5675 EURNZD 1.7620- 1.7832

The New Zealand Dollar (NZD), Euro (EUR) cross rate flatlines into Tuesday trading around 0.5660 (1.7670) as markets were quiet from the US Labor Day Holiday. The kiwi deteriorated towards the weekend with the RBNZ signalling no sign of concern for the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) being overvalued, starting conversations around prospects of loosening monetary policy into negative rates to ward off low inflation. Looking ahead the ECB will announce their refinancing rate and policy statement Thursday with interest over whether they will do anything to try and push inflation higher amid a less than optimistic mood with signs that the EU economy is losing momentum. With a thin calendar risk markets could play a bigger role for the kiwi if US/China tensions worsen expect the NZD to test 0.5605 (1.7840).
Exchange Rate
Current Level: 0.5667 (1.7646)
Resistance: 0.5720 (1.7750)
Support: 0.5635 (1.7480)
Last Weeks Range: 0.5633-0.5724 (1.7469-1.7751)

The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) deteriorated sharply Thursday from 0.5725 (1.7470) against the Euro (EUR) to 0.5650 (1.7700) into Friday as risk sentiment sank. The RBNZ signalled no sign of concern for the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) being overvalued and started conversations around prospects of loosening monetary policy into negative rates in efforts to ward off low inflation. Orr saying “the best contribution we can make to financial stability is to ensure we head off unnecessarily low inflation or deflation”. Covid cases are starting to rise again in France and Spain with the situation being watched closely. A break back below 0.5650 (1.7700) could confirm a trend reversal.
Exchange Rate
The current interbank midrate is: NZDEUR 0.5659 EURNZD 1.7670
The interbank range this week has been: NZDEUR 0.5607- 0.5724 EURNZD 1.7469- 1.7834

The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) pushed back on the Euro (EUR) into the weekly close outperforming for the second week running to reach 0.5660 (1.7660). ANZ Business Confidence released slightly lower at -41.8 on the index showing the struggles recently from the efforts of coronavirus on NZ businesses. Nevertheless, the kiwi has started the week in the red as equity markets in Europe and the US took a break from recent highs leading the way lower for risk currencies. Although second tier data, Italian, German and Spanish inflation numbers printed ok. No further data on the calendar of note this week should see the cross consolidate around 0.5650 (1.7700) levels.
Exchange Rate
Current Level: 0.5639 (1.7733)
Resistance: 0.5660 (1.8230)
Support: 0.5485 (1.7660)
Last Weeks Range: 0.5515-0.5667 (1.7645-1.8134)

The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) has gained on the Euro (EUR) this week trading to 0.5620 (1.7800) into Friday as risk sentiment improved. This marks a reversal for the kiwi after 5 weeks of losses. Most importantly price has travelled through 0.5600 (1.7850) channel resistance and looks to have consolidated around current levels. Tier one economic data is scarce looking into next week with nothing on the calendar to grab our attention. We expect the Euro to bounce back as there is only so far the kiwi can go on “risk” factors alone.
Exchange Rate
The current interbank midrate is: NZDEUR 0.5622 EURNZD 1.7787
The interbank range this week has been: NZDEUR 0.5514- 0.5631 EURNZD 1.7759- 1.8134

With equity markets experiencing all-time highs we saw the commodity correlated currencies strengthen towards the end of the week and risk improve. The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) returned from 0.5490 (1.8220) recouping losses to 0.5550 (1.8030) vs the Euro (EUR). Early Monday’s NZ Retail Sales published slightly ahead of expectation for the June quarter at -14.6% compared to -16.3% expected but it’s a terrible result nonetheless. It’s clear to see that retailers have really struggled through coronavirus plummeting by a whopping 15%. Spending for, eating out and accommodation, vehicles and fuel fell sharply compared to the June 2019 quarter. It’s a very quiet week of data releases – all eyes will be on the Central Bankers meeting at the Jackson Hole Symposium in Wyoming from Thursday.
Exchange Rate
Current Level: 0.5534 (1.8070)
Resistance: 0.5555 (1.8220)
Support: 0.5490 (1.8000)
Last Weeks Range: 0.5488-0.5571 (1.7950-1.8222)

The Euro (EUR) posted another profitable week against the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) with price continuing to fall to 0.5525 (1.8100) Tuesday. Post the RBNZ meeting Wednesday the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) continues to underperform, in contrast to comments made by the German economic ministry saying the economy is expected to “expand strongly” in the third quarter but “it’s set for a lengthy recovery process that depends to a large extent on the course of the pandemic at home and abroad”. Looking ahead we have German and French manufacturing data releasing Friday with a pick up in production expected for both in July. The recent coronavirus outbreak in NZ is not helping the kiwi, as long as Auckland remains in level 3 the kiwi should remain offered. Expected direction this week: Retest of 0.5475 (1.8270)
Exchange Rate
The current interbank midrate is: NZDEUR 0.5502 EURNZD 1.8175
The interbank range this week has been: NZDEUR 0.5487- 0.5572 EURNZD 1.7947- 1.8224

The Euro (EUR) posted another profitable week against the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) with price continuing to fall to 0.5525 (1.8100) Tuesday. Post the RBNZ meeting Wednesday the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) continues to underperform, in contrast to comments made by the German economic ministry saying the economy is expected to “expand strongly” in the third quarter but “it’s set for a lengthy recovery process that depends to a large extent on the course of the pandemic at home and abroad”. Looking ahead we have German and French manufacturing data releasing Friday with a pickup in production expected for both in July. The recent coronavirus outbreak in NZ is not helping the kiwi, as long as Auckland remains in level 3 the kiwi should remain offered. Expected direction this week: Retest of 0.5475 (1.8270)
Exchange Rate
Current level: 0.5512 (1.8142)
Resistance: 0.5600 (1.8220)
Support: 0.5490 (1.7850)
Last Weeks Range: 0.5501-0.5639 (1.7733-1.8178)

Post the RBNZ meeting Wednesday the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) continues to underperform against the Euro (EUR) with price snapping through support at 0.5620 (1.7800) to reach 0.5550 (1.8030) Friday. The RBNZ increased their asset buying program from 60B to 100B in efforts to get more cheap money into the NZ economy. They have not ruled out taking the cash rate into the negatives, this clearly will depend on how well the economy handles the current second wave of coronavirus and the new lockdowns introduced earlier this week. Looking ahead we have Eurozone manufacturing numbers to print late next week. Further downward bias for the kiwi expected for a while.
Exchange Rate
The current interbank midrate is: NZDEUR 0.5533 EURNZD 1.8073
The interbank range this week has been: NZDEUR 0.5535- 0.5638 EURNZD 1.7734- 1.8065

A slow start to the week for the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) saw price extend to 0.5595 (1.7870) yesterday against the Euro (EUR). Just shy of a double bottom shaping at 0.5585 (1.7910), price reversed to 0.5615 (1.7810) and looks set on the chart to continue towards 0.5645 (1.7720) resistance. Reports in Germany have surfaced of further plans to increase their stimulus package by 16B Euro to a total of 26B EUR. With growing optimism over recent weeks that Germany is on the right track to recovery they are still a long way off after second quarter growth published at -10.1% the worst result since the second world war. German economic sentiment prints tonight. Expected direction this week: NZD to push higher.
Exchange Rate
Current Level: 0.5617 (1.7083)
Resistance: 0.5715 (1.7900)
Support: 0.5585 (1.7500)
Last Weeks Range: 0.5583-0.5641 (1.7726-1.7911)

The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) staged a rebound against the Euro (EUR) overnight pulling back losses from 0.5580 (1.7920) to 0.5635 (1.7750) in early Friday trading. It’s been a busy couple of days for Euro second tier data releases with PMI’s from Italy and Spain and Eurozone Retail Sales. Spain Services PMI rose from 50.2 to 51.9 with Italy’s PMI rising from 46.4 to 51.6. Eurozone Retail Sales rose by 5.7% in June just shy of the forecasted 5.9% rise forecasted. Next week’s RBNZ cash rate release and policy statement holds focus with expectations of an increase to the central bank bond buying programme.
Exchange Rate
The current interbank midrate is: NZDEUR 0.5628 EURNZD 1.7768
The interbank range this week has been: NZDEUR 0.5582- 0.5653 EURNZD 1.7687- 1.7913

The Euro continued its recovery against the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) last week pushing price to 0.5620 (1.7788) into the Tuesday trading day. This marks the third week straight the NZD has taken onboard losses stemming from the prior high of 0.5830 (1.7150). Euro manufacturing numbers overnight looked good with solid improvements and turbocharged the EUR. Looking ahead with nothing on the Euro calendar so focus will be on NZ employment numbers in particular the unemployment rate of which is expected to publish around 5.5% a far cry from what this number could have been if the economy didn’t stamp out coronavirus. Expected weekly direction: downside bias for the kiwi to 0.5570 (1.7945)
Exchange Rate
Current Level: 0.5625 (1.7770)
Resistance: 0.5660 (1.7820)
Support: 0.5610 (1.7670)
Last Weeks Range: 0.5609-0.5695 (1.7558-1.7827)

The New Zealand Dollar traded down to an 8 week low of 0.5630 (1.7770) into Friday trading but has recovered some losses to trade back at 0.5650 (1.7690). Spanish unemployment came in lower than we were anticipating at 15.3% vs 16.6% and German prelim GDP for the second quarter was -10.1% against expectations of -9.0% clearly missing the mark and plunging Germany into a recession. ECB countries have tightened up on coronavirus controls due to second wave fears. Next week’s NZ employment data is the key calendar standout. We expect the price in the cross to be closer to 0.5680 (1.7600) at the weekly close.
Exchange Rate
The current interbank midrate is: NZDEUR 0.5637 EURNZD 1.7740
The interbank range this week has been: NZDEUR 0.5625- 0.5714 EURNZD 1.7500- 1.7776

The Euro (EUR) has extended last week’s gains against the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) into Monday to a 6 week low to 0.5690 (1.7580) as the EUR gains momentum. German and French Manufacturing activity was up sharply in July according to the latest reports with French business activity also showing the quickest rise in 2.5 years. More businesses have opened following coronavirus lockdowns marking expansions for the second month running after June’s modest rises in the business and manufacturing sectors. It’s a quiet week of data for the pair with just German second quarter GDP printing Thursday. Expectations are a decline of around 9.0% for the second quarter ending June 30th. We expect a correction of sorts this week as the overbought Euro limits buying.
Exchange Rate
Current Level: 0.5691 (1.7571)
Resistance: 0.5830 (1.7900)
Support: 0.5585 (1.7160)
Last Weeks Range: 0.5677-0.5792 (1.7265-1.7614)

Early week gains for the New Zealand dollar (NZD) helped to briefly drive this pair to a high of 0.5792 (1.7265), but since then the Euro (EUR) has outperformed the local currency. European Union Countries agreed to a EUR750 Billion recovery fund and this underpinned the Euro’s resurgence against the Kiwi. In the past 12 hours the NZD suffered further as a wave of “risk off” sentiment swept markets after US weekly unemployment claims printed higher than expected. The NZDEUR pair now trades at the 0.5720 (1.7483) level, just above initial support which is seen around 0.5710. A break below there would open the way for a test of 0.5680 (1.7606). We have Manufacturing and Service Sector PMI’s for Europe set for release tonight which should make interesting reading. Expectations are for gains in those PMI’s back toward 50 or 51, which would signal renewed expansion in the sectors and likely underpin further EUR gains.
Exchange Rate
The current interbank midrate is: NZDEUR 0.5720 EURNZD 1.7483
The interbank range this week has been: NZDEUR 0.5713 – 0.5792 EURNZD 1.7265 – 1.7503

The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) eased Monday to 0.5870 (1.7040) against the Euro (EUR) in what was a quiet directionless open to the week. It looks as though world leaders at the European Summit are on the breakthrough of agreeing a proposal on the pandemic recovery fund. In a marathon meeting to tweak the Euro 750B fund a compromise has led to significant progress. The bone of contention has been the split over how much of the fund would be as grants and how much would be in loans to the member states. The news has kept the Euro at the forefront of investors minds, with the currency making small gains into Tuesday. A positive outcome will push the Euro higher.
Exchange Rate
Current Level: 0.5744 (1.7409)
Resistance: 0.5770 (1.7580)
Support: 0.5690 (1.7330)
Last Weeks Range: 0.5716-0.5796 (1.7254-1.7495)

The Euro (EUR) continued its recovery over the week into Friday against the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) reaching 0.5720 (1.7480) before dropping back to 0.5750 (1.7400). Overnight the ECB meeting came and went without any bombshell moments with the rate remaining unchanged at -0.5% and the (PEPP) Pandemic Emergency Purchase Programme remaining unchanged at 1.35T. The PEPP will continue through into 2021 including the bond purchase program which will run until at least 2022. The Euro popped higher post release as investors got comfort from no surprises. With the risk off tone weighing we could see more gains made by the Euro towards the close.
Exchange Rate
The current interbank midrate is: NZDEUR 0.5746 EURNZD 1.7403
The interbank range this week has been: NZDEUR 0.5720- 0.5821 EURNZD 1.7178- 1.7485

The Euro (EUR) was sharply higher across the board at the weekly open. Against the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) it traded from 1.7200 (0.5815) to 1.7312 (0.5775) into early Tuesday. Improving economic updates and growing optimism seem to be doing the trick as Europe opens the economy back up. European Union forecasters are predicting the bloc will contract more than previously thought because of the fallout from coronavirus. The 27 countries are predicted to contract by 8.3% this year before growing again in 2021 by 5.8% according to the latest predictions. The ECB announce their cash rate and statement Thursday with chances of more talk about a V shaped economic recovery. This however will be largely based on July data being positive with the likes of inflationary pressures with high unemployment and business uncertainty weighing. We don’t expect the Euro to run away this week and think the likely move is a reversal back towards the open
Exchange Rate
Current Level: 0.5757 (1.7370)
Resistance: 0.5830 (1.7560)
Support: 0.5695 (1.7160)
Last Weeks Range: 0.5753-0.5835 (1.7139-1.7381)

After a strong start to the week for the Euro (EUR) to 0.5780 (1.7300) risk sentiment pushed the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) back in the driver’s seat to 0.5825 (1.7170) into Friday trading. Paschal Donohoe has been elected as the new Eurogroup President pushing out favourite Nadia Calvino who had been in pole position in early rounds of voting. Donohoe saying his immediate priority is to carve a path forward for rebuilding the European recovery and providing sustainable growth to the EU countries. European Union forecasters are predicting the bloc will contract more than previously thought because of the fallout from coronavirus. The 27 countries are predicted to contract by 8.3% this year before growing again in 2021 by 5.8% according to the latest predictions. This news shaped the Euro lower which we expect to continue into the weekly close.
Exchange Rate
The current interbank midrate is: NZDEUR 0.5811 EURNZD 1.7208
The interbank range this week has been: NZDEUR 0.5777- 0.5827 EURNZD 1.7160- 1.7309

End of week demand in the New Zealand Dollar helped it climb to close around 0.5815 (1.7200) against the Euro (EUR). However, a stiff reversal off the open has seen the kiwi lose most of the recent gains falling back to 0.5775 (1.7320) before regaining the edge into early Tuesday to 0.5800 (1.7240) as risk mood improved. Eurozone unemployment surprised investors by releasing lower at 7.4% from the predicted 7.6% for May- these numbers suggest the unemployment rate has plateaued. Attention is with tomorrow’s EU quarterly Economic Forecasts of EU member countries which could add volatility.
Exchange Rate
Current Level: 0.5794 (1.7259)
Resistance: 0.5820 (1.7500)
Support: 0.5715 (1.7180)
Last Weeks Range: 0.5698-0.5825 (1.7168-1.7551)

Tuesday’s risk sentiment shift from risk off to risk on took the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) , Euro (EUR) cross from around 0.5720 (1.7480) levels to 0.5795 (1.7260) Friday. The EU and UK Brexit negotiators are back nutting out a trade deal with EU’s Barnier saying serious differences still remain over a number of important issues. Minor Eurozone data this week has been solid, helping to give the Euro the odd leg up, meanwhile ECB’s Lagarde said “the worst is behind us”. Eurozone unemployment surprised markets by releasing lower at 7.4% from the predicted 7.6% for May- these numbers suggest the unemployment rate has plateaued in recent months. Huge resistance at 0.5815 (1.7200) stands in the way of the kiwi posting higher highs in the coming days.
Exchange Rate
The current interbank midrate is: NZDEUR 0.5791 EURNZD 1.7268
The interbank range this week has been: NZDEUR 0.5690- 0.5800 EURNZD 1.7240- 1.7573

After months of declines in the Euro (EUR) we could be seeing a revival develop. The long-term bullish trend in the Euro, New Zealand Dollar (NZD) is sitting at a pivotal area at 0.5715 (1.7500) and looks like it wants to reverse. This bullish channel has been in play since mid-March this year, a breakthrough 0.5650 (1.7700) would confirm the end of months of NZD momentum. ECB president Lagarde said “we probably have passed the lowest point in the crisis, the recovery will be a complicated matter” A thin calendar with only ANZ Business Confidence Wednesday may keep the cross at current levels for now.
Exchange Rate
Current Level: 0.5709 (1.7516)
Resistance: 0.5770 (1.7580)
Support: 0.5690 (1.7340)
Last Weeks Range: 0.5687-0.5768 (1.7338-1.7583)

Markets look for directional cues in early Friday sessions with the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) trading lower off the open to 0.5730 (1.7450) but with no real momentum. French and German manufacturing surprised to the upside beating expectations and bouncing back sharply in June. A V style recovery in the eurozone still looks a tall order but they are certainly recovering well. Next week’s calendar is slow with just ANZ Business confidence to digest. Coronavirus worry along with the latest IMF downgrade could support the EUR into the close and through next week, especially if NZ has a second wave community spread case.

Exchange Rate
The current interbank midrate is: NZDEUR 0.5721 EURNZD 1.7479
The interbank range this week has been: NZDEUR 0.5688- 0.5769 EURNZD 1.7334- 1.7579

The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) continued last week’s momentum to 0.5770 (1.7340) this morning against the Euro (EUR) as it eyes the previous high around 0.5815 (1.7200) levels from the 6th of June. The kiwi is still very well bid on dips from the trend pattern of mid-March and looks to continue north for some time. Tomorrow’s RBNZ cash rate and policy decision is the highlight on the docked for the week with expectations Orr will deliver a dovish stance booking forward but retain the current QE package of 60B for now. French and German manufacturing later today should confirm further issues for these economies and pressure the EUR. ECB’s Guindos has suggested the Eurozone should rebound in the second half of this year.
Exchange Rate
Current Level: 0.5749 (1.7395)
Resistance: 0.5770 (1.7640)
Support: 0.5670 (1.7330)
Last Weeks Range: 0.5687-0.5771 (1.7329-1.7583)

After seeing early support for the Euro (EUR) to 0.5685 (1.7595) the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) has spent most of the week creeping higher to reach 0.5765 (1.7350). In a thin week on the economic docket markets focused on first quarter NZ GDP, releasing at -1.6% vs -1.0% predicted. This is the largest first quarter drop in 29 years as the country feels the effects of lockdown on the economy. Next week’s RBNZ Cash rate is Wednesday with no change expected from 0.25% through to March 2021. We expected the long range trend to continue for the next few weeks at least, with the kiwi making a break for 0.5830 (1.7150) possibly next week.
Exchange Rate
The current interbank midrate is: NZDEUR 0.5727 EURNZD 1.7460
The interbank range this week has been: NZDEUR 0.5683- 0.5769 EURNZD 1.7334- 1.7594

The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) initially lost ground off the weekly open travelling to 0.5685 (1.7590) before risk flow brought the kiwi back into favour Tuesday to 0.5730 (1.7450). Germany’s Finance minister Scholz cautioned that as long as there’s no vaccine for coronavirus Germans must live in a way to avoid a second wave starting. A very light economic docket this week sees only NZ GDP first quarter publishing Thursday. A Fibonacci retracement to around the 0.5740 (1.7420) zone may be retested this week, before movement could be restricted to last week’s low of 0.5665 (1.7650).
Exchange Rate
Current Level: 0.5718 (1.7488)
Resistance: 0.5810 (1.7640)
Support: 0.5670 (1.7210)
Last Weeks Range: 0.5665-0.5817 (1.7192-1.7652)

The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) reversed off 0.5815 (1.7195) Tuesday the 25 Feb 2020 high to 0.5660 (1.7670) against the Euro (EUR) as risk sentiment tumbled. We have seen less enthusiasm for risk currencies since yesterday’s Fed rate decision and statement with renewed demand for the US Dollar. The euphoria from the last couple of weeks ended with a thud led by US indices all dropping over 5.0% overnight. Perhaps this loss of momentum and general risk off tone has gone for the while- I think not. A push back through 0.5600 (1.7850) would cement the bullish change to a bearish bias. Next week’s economic docket looks slim again except for German economic sentiment Tuesday.
Exchange Rate
The current interbank midrate is: NZDEUR 0.5681 EURNZD 1.7602
The interbank range this week has been: NZDEUR 0.5665- 0.5818 EURNZD 1.7187- 1.7652

The Euphoria continues in markets. The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) extended last week’s gains against the Euro (EUR) to 0.5810 (1.7210) into Tuesday with no sight of any letting up in the drive higher by risk associated currencies. The current price signifies a fresh late February level. Last week the ECB left the main refinancing rate on hold while upping its PEPP contribution by an additional 500B to be spent until mid-2021. German Industrial Production printed a disappointing -17.9% based on -16% expectation in April, one economist has called it “the worst month ever” for the German economy at the height of coronavirus. Looking ahead we have ANZ Business Confidence later today which could put pressure on the kiwi.
Exchange Rate
Current Level: 0.5798 (1.7247)
Resistance: 0.5830 (1.7540)
Support: 0.5700 (1.7150)
Last Weeks Range: 0.5625-0.5817 (1.7192-1.7779)

The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) lost ground to 0.5575 (1.7940) into the weekly close against the Euro (EUR) perfectly aligned at the 50% retracement of the prior low of 0.5480 (1.8250) and high of 0.5670 (1.7630). A reversal at this pivotal level retraced the earlier moves higher with the kiwi outperforming the EUR to 0.5705 (1.7530) into the today’s NY session close. Thursday’s ECB cash rate and monetary statement release with the expected increase of the (PEPP) Pandemic Emergency Purchase Programme with the ECB to add an additional 500B to be spent until mid-2021. Currently trading around the 0.5710 (1.7510) zone this represents a 3-month high for the kiwi. Further support based on risk sentiment is expected.
Exchange Rate
Current Level: 0.5736 (1.7433)
Resistance: 0.5770 (1.7640)
Support: 0.5670 (1.7330)
Last Weeks Range: 0.5562-0.5730 (1.7453-1.7979)

Momentum in the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) continued this week against the Euro with risk sentiment positive keeping buyers in the kiwi. Price reached the top end of the recent price band at 0.5675 (1.7620) before falling back from Thursday to 0.5610 (1.7830) as the EU stimulus became a reality. A break below 0.5585 (1.7900) could spell further weakness in the cross but downside should be limited to 0.5570 (1.7950) levels in the medium term, the 50% retracement of the move from 0.5480 (1.8240) and 0.5680 (1.7600).
The current interbank midrate is: NZDEUR 0.5588 EURNZD 1.7895
The interbank range this week has been: NZDEUR 0.5586- 0.5674 EURNZD 1.7623- 1.7900

After making a low of 0.5475 early last week the NZD clawed higher to 0.5607, but over the last few days has flatlined on the 0.5595 level looking for direction. Given the comments from the French Central Bank head and ECB member Villeroy, last night , more EUR easing is to come so look for the NZD to hold ground on this cross with potential to move toward the
0.5650 mark over the next few days.
Exchange Rates
Current Level: 0.5599 (1.7860)
Resistance: 0.5680 (1.8260)
Support: 0.5480 (1.7600)
Last Weeks Range: 0.5489-0.5606 (1.7836-1.8215)

The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) recovered last week’s losses against the Euro (EUR) to 0.5600 (1.7850) Friday after starting the week around 0.5480 (1.8250). The Euro got a little reprieve from AUD momentum after German Chancellor Merkel agreed taxpayers would underwrite as much as EUR 135B of aid to assist the hardest hit EU countries rebuild from the devastation of coronavirus. French and German Manufacturing figures released down on expectations for May but show a noticeable easing decline from April numbers. However, companies are still widely pessimistic with job cuts and discounted prices for products and services still being offered. We expect weakness in the EUR to be limited to 0.5645 (1.7720) for now.
Exchange Rates
The current interbank midrate is: NZDEUR 0.5585 EURNZD 1.7905
The interbank range this week has been: NZDEUR 0.5478- 0.5602 EURNZD 1.7849- 1.8253

The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) saw renewed buyer demand against the Euro (EUR) Monday reaching 0.5550 (1.8015). Bouncing off long term support at 0.5480 (1.8250) the kiwi was back above the physiological level of 0.5550 as we think setbacks should continue to be well supported in the week ahead. France and Germany have proposed a 500B Euro recovery fund overnight in a joint plan to add relief from the coronavirus crisis to EU countries hardest hit, the news helping to boost risk sentiment. NZ Retail Sales is Friday along with a bunch of French and German Manufacturing releases. If the risk on mood continues for a while longer we may see price back to the 0.5650 (1.7700) area.
Exchange Rates
Current Level: 0.5533 (1.8073)
Resistance: 0.5560 (1.8260)
Support: 0.5480 (1.7980)
Last Weeks Range: 0.5471-0.5688 (1.7581-1.8279)

The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) bounced off the weekly open at 0.5675 (1.7620) against the Euro (EUR) retracing last week’s gains to 0.5530 (1.8080) into Friday. The kiwi started the week on the backfoot after ANZ Business Confidence printed poor before Wednesday’s RBNZ cash rate and monetary policy sank the kiwi. The benchmark rate stayed unchanged at 0.25% but Orr’s comments around negative rates towards the end of the year spooked markets as investors exited the kiwi. Orr increased the QE package to 60B which was expected but his overall dovish outlook was noted. Tonight’s German Preliminary GDP for the first quarter 2020 is expected to be -2.3% which could turn buyers back into the kiwi.
Exchange Rates
The current interbank midrate is: NZDEUR 0.5555 EURNZD 1.8002
The interbank range this week has been: NZDEUR 0.5521- 0.5680 EURNZD 1.7605- 1.8110

The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) made a fresh 3 month high Monday to 0.5680 (1.7600) against the Euro (EUR) as risk appetite continues to boost risk currencies. The Euro underperformed with the German court ruling that the ECB would need to justify its asset purchase program. The EU has threatened to sue the Germans for not abiding by EU law. NZ Business Confidence printed poorly with the indicators suggesting NZ sees the economic downturn through a pessimistic eye – but as the figure wasn’t as bad as predicted perhaps there is light at the end of the outlook tunnel. NZ rate statement and monetary policy is released tomorrow with predictions the RBNZ could increase current stimulus. Although the EUR recovered overnight to 0.5620 (1.7800) we see further upside to continue for the kiwi.
Exchange Rates
Current Level: 0.5614 (1.6412)
Resistance: 0.5680 (1.8200)
Support: 0.5495 (1.7600)
Last Weeks Range: 0.5542-0.5689 (1.7579-1.8043)

The roller coaster ride in the New Zealand Dollar (NZD), Euro (EUR) continues with the Euro underperforming this week and the NZD regaining last week’s losses on improvements to risk markets. Wednesday’s NZ unemployment jumped a modest 5,000 in the March quarter to take the unemployment rate to 4.2% from 4.0% slightly better than the expected 4.4%. Clearly these first quarter figures only partially reflect the overall economic fallout from coronavirus with expectations of employment and growth to rise significantly over the second and third periods. The ECB decided to modify their targeted lending to further support the EU economy and provide more credit to households and companies in order to alleviate the disruption and uncertainty in the coronavirus outbreak. From 24 June 2020 to 23 June 2021 the rate on TLTRO (targeted longer-term refinancing operations) has been lowered 50 basis points below the main refinancing rate which will allow cheaper money/funds to flow into the economy where it’s needed. We may see further upside yet in the kiwi as it eyes the 9-week daily high at 0.5645 (1.7720) a break here and the pair is in thin air.
Exchange Rates
The current interbank midrate is: NZDEUR 0.5621 EURNZD 1.7789
The interbank range this week has been: NZDEUR 0.5485- 0.5635 EURNZD 1.7746- 1.8226

The ECB decided to modify their targeted lending to further support the EU economy and provide more credit to households and companies in order to alleviate the disruption and uncertainty in the coronavirus outbreak. From 24 June 2020 to 23 June 2021 the rate on TLTRO (targeted longer term refinancing operations) has been lowered 50 basis points below the main refinancing rate which will allow cheaper money/funds to flow into the economy where it’s needed. The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) reached an early March level of 0.5665 (1.7650) Friday before risk markets brought back the safer EUR to 0.5510 (1.8150) into the close. The kiwi perked up yesterday after Standard & Poor’s rating agency reaffirmed the country’s long term foreign currency debt rating at AA helping to take the pair to 0.5550 (1.8010) this morning. We suspect support in the NZD may be coming to an end in the short to medium term with price to push back towards 0.5400 (1.8500) support.

Exchange Rates
Current Level: 0.5550 (1.8020)
Resistance: 0.5600 (1.8270 )
Support: 0.5475 (1.7860)
Last Weeks Range: 0.5487-0.5663 (1.7658-1.8225)

Last week’s weakness in the Euro (EUR) spilled over into this week against the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) to around 0.5600 (1.7860) and sits at a key physiological level. French and Spanish GDP figures publish Thursday before the ECB’s Monetary Policy where they will no doubt take stock of how easing has gone and what tweaks they need to make. We expect the kiwi has reached an overbought zone and could weaken off over the coming days towards 0.5460 (1.8300)

Exchange Rates
Current Level: 0.5612 (1.7818)
Resistance: 0.5660 (1.8210 )
Support: 0.5490 (1.7660)
Last Weeks Range: 0.5531-0.5619 (1.7798-1.8080)

The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) tested the 7 week low at 0.5600 (1.7860) early week against the Euro (EUR) but fell back to 0.5475 (1.8260) as risk deteriorated. The kiwi then went on to pair back losses again travelling back to 0.5575 (1.7930) midday Friday. Overnight EU leaders have been in talks on a fresh recovery package after the worst PMI data on record printed. PMI data is expected to be a low point as EU countries fight against coronavirus. The leader’s crisis meeting turned into nothing new with disagreements a plenty, and Lagarde telling leaders they have done too little to late. We expect appetite for risk will deteriorate into next week especially with the pair forming a top around 0.5600 (1.7860) Euro should win out.

Exchange Rates
The current interbank midrate is: NZDEUR 0.5563 EURNZD 1.7975
The interbank range this week has been: NZDEUR 0.5470- 0.5596 EURNZD 1.7869- 1.8280.

The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) climbed to 0.5600 (1.7865) Monday continuing last week’s momentum against the Euro (EUR) before falling back to 0.5560 (1.7980). At the moment with a lack of data publishing it’s all about price action in the kiwi. NZ will come out of its level 4 lockdown on the 27th of April which will ease restrictions of workers and boost NZ business which is good for the economy. Level 3 still has its limitations but with the view of opening up the economy in the coming weeks we should see NZD well supported. Germany is set to reopen small shops while France has unveiled a plan to lift its own restrictions of travel and business. Upside bias remains in the kiwi.
Exchange Rates
Current Level: 0.5545 (1.8035)
Resistance: 0.5595 (1.8300)
Support: 0.5465 (1.7880)
Last Weeks Range: 0.5467-0.5596 (1.7871-1.8293)

The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) has outperformed the Euro (EUR) for the fourth week straight (19th March) from the low of 0.5090 (1.9650) into Wednesday. A lack of any earth moving data price shifts has been pivoting off coronavirus headlines and risk sentiment. Overnight session risk sentiment improved with US equities and commodity prices improving strengthening the kiwi. The Euro has fundamentally held up well against other currency pairs but suspect price momentum could continue to deteriorate for the Euro as coronavirus rips through the region. ECB Guindos said Europe is likely to experience a more severe recession than the rest of the world and may not show signs of recovering until 2021. PM Macron has extended the nationwide lockdown until 11th of May. Big resistance looks to be at 0.5680 (1.7600) the daily close on the 14th October 2019 – we look for price to extend here in the coming days.
Exchange Rates
The current interbank midrate is: NZDEUR 0.5530 EURNZD 1.8085
The interbank range this week has been: NZDEUR 0.5465- 0.5605 EURNZD 1.7841- 1.8299

The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) broke above the 3-week high of 0.5480 (1.8250) overnight to a 0.5525 (1.8100) high with market optimism ticking up. Coronavirus fears eased slightly with the outlook better after the global death rate in key places such as Italy, New York, France and Spain dropped yesterday looked encouraging. With economic data slim at the moment coronavirus headlines will continue to shift sentiment as infected and death numbers are released. The ECB started buying commercial paper last week as part of its 750 Billion EUR Pandemic Emergency Purchase Program. Purchases will continue through to the end of 2020. Direction is very hard to read currently, if we run with recent trend shifts we could see the pair retest the early March high of 0.5585 (1.7900) soon.

Exchange Rates
Current Level: 0.5501 (1.8178)
Resistance: 0.5520 (1.8230)
Support: 0.5485 (1.8105)
Last Weeks Range: 0.5368-0.5524 (1.8104-1.8628)

The New Zealand Dollar (NZD), Euro (EUR) cross has done absolutely nothing this week as it hovers around the 0.5450 (1.8350) area, a stark contrast to the volatility seen in previous weeks. The numbers of new coronavirus cases coming out of France, Italy and Germany have not been kind to Europe with over 1,800 deaths and 18,000 new infections in the past 24 hours. Earlier in the week reports confirmed a record contraction in manufacturing and business activity in Germany and France for March as the coronavirus cases increased on a massive scale. March is the largest monthly collapse since data has been collected since 1998. Investors and analysts are still largely unsure whether to continue buying the EUR with the kiwi well supported over the past 2 weeks.

Exchange Rates
The current interbank midrate is: NZDEUR 0.5450 EURNZD 1.8348
The interbank range this week has been: NZDEUR 0.5367- 0.5479 EURNZD 1.8249- 1.8629

The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) had its first weekly gain over the Euro (EUR) in five weeks coming from 0.5230 (1.9130) to 0.5420 (1.8450) at the close. It’s steady as she goes into Tuesday however with markets showing pre coronavirus signs overnight with an almost calmness organised tone. A record contraction in Manufacturing and Business activity in Germany and France for March shows an unprecedented collapse in business as the coronavirus cases increased on a massive scale. March is the largest monthly collapse since data has been collected since 1998. We have nothing on the calendar this week of note in Euro land, only today’s ANZ Business Confidence to focus on. The surveyed number won’t be pretty and could see the kiwi ease off a tad from the current 0.5450 (1.8360) level.

Exchange Rates
Current Level: 0.5456 (1.8328)
Resistance: 0.5535 (1.9100)
Support: 0.5235 (1.8070)
Last Weeks Range: 0.5282-0.5462 (1.8308-1.8934)

The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) benefited by early week risk on markets against the Euro (EUR) rallying to 0.5460 (1.8320) before the Euro clawed back gains to 0.5280 (1.8930). Overnight’s action continues to be a worry in Europe with the death toll in Italy and Spain more than quadrupling that of China’s. A record contraction in Manufacturing and Business activity in Germany and France for March shows an unprecedented collapse in business as the coronavirus cases have grown out of hand. March is the largest monthly collapse since data has been collected since 1998. I’m picking a shift over the next 24 hours back to 0.5265 (1.9000) and another “risk off” move before the weekly close.

Exchange Rates
The current interbank midrate is: NZDEUR 0.5388 EURNZD 1.8559
The interbank range this week has been: NZDEUR 0.5240- 0.5459 EURNZD 1.8318- 1.9083

Yesterday Germany banned all public meetings of more than two, while the German Chancellor Merkel was placed in self isolation. The New Zealand Dollar (NZD), Euro (EUR) cross seems settled this week bouncing around 0.5280 (1.8950) areas. The France death toll has risen to 860 from 674 cases and the Italian death toll has risen a further 602 to 6078, these are scary figures as the virus worsens across the globe. It’s hard to not see further depreciation in the kiwi develop as risk sentiment deteriorates. We think a retest of 0.5090 (1.9650) could be on the cards this week

Exchange Rates
Current Level: 0.5341 (1.8723)
Resistance: 0.5445 (1.9650)
Support: 0.5090 (1.8370)
Last Weeks Range: 0.5239-0.5456 (1.8328-1.9089)

The New Zealand Dollar (NZD), Euro trades just off the weekly open around 0.5405 (1.8500) Friday. After travelling to 0.5012 (1.9950) yesterday after a massive kiwi sell off, the currency recovered during NY and London overnight sessions supported by the Prime Minister officially closed the NZ borders. This move at 400 points or 4cents I have never seen before, these are exhausting times to be in financial markets. Central bank stimulus and coronavirus will continue to drive the pair with it being near impossible to gauge directions from one day to the next.

Exchange Rates
The current interbank midrate is: NZDEUR 0.5370 EURNZD 1.8620
The interbank range this week has been: NZDEUR 0.5022- 0.5516 EURNZD 1.8127- 1.9912

The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) is bouncing around the weekly open around 0.5435 (1.8400) levels against the Euro (EUR) Tuesday morning, surprisingly, after a busy start to the week. The RBNZ emergency meeting saw rates cut from 1.0% to a record low of 0.25% yesterday as the coronavirus pandemic spread. The ECB announced a fresh package of easing measures in the face of coronavirus offering new loans to banks and liquidity facilities at favourable rates and increased asset purchases to assist the economy. Price this week will test the previous low at 0.5370 (1.8620) with German economic sentiment and NZ fourth quarter 2019 GDP holding attention.

Exchange Rates
Current Level: 0.5417 (1.8460)
Resistance: 0.5520 (1.8600)
Support: 0.5375 (1.8120)
Last Weeks Range: 0.5374-0.5638 (1.7736-1.8608)

With all the turmoil surrounding coronavirus the New Zealand Dollar (NZD), Euro (EUR) pair hasn’t moved in the last 3 days in comparison to other currency pairings. It pivoted around the 0.5550 (1.8000) area post Monday’s “flash crash” event, even though the ECB announcement this morning was relatively unchanged. The ECB announced a fresh package of easing measures in the face of coronavirus offering new loans to banks and liquidity facilities at favourable rates and increased asset purchases to assist the struggling economy. Many believe the ECB would push out a massive rescue plan but instead shocked markets by boosting QE. With Covid 19 rapidly pushing Europe into recession a fiscal response was also something of expectation but never came. Price in the pair inches closer to the 0.5465 (1.8300) level. I’m not too sure if the kiwi has anything left to combat further declines.

Exchange Rates
The current interbank midrate is: NZDEUR 0.5482 EURNZD 1.8241
The interbank range this week has been: NZDEUR 0.5339- 0.5635 EURNZD 1.7744- 1.8730

Clients selling EUR who had pre-existing orders in place yesterday were treated to a nice surprise when the bottom dropped out of the pair in line with the “flash crash” which took place Monday afternoon. Price travelled to 0.5250 (1.9050) in a quick fire surge as equity markets and Crude Oil peeled off. Returning to 0.5550 (1.8030) into Tuesday sessions, calmness has been somewhat restored for now. If coronavirus fears weren’t bad enough with markets hanging off every new statistic we now have a Saudi Arabia sudden oil price war against Russia to factor in. Euro strength should continue its bullish bias with the ECB having limited options available to them later in the week when they meet.

Exchange Rates
Current Level: 0.5554 (1.8005)
Resistance: 0.5640 (1.8210)
Support: 0.5490 (1.7730)
Last Weeks Range: 0.5358-0.5671 (1.7364-1.8665)

The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) managed to halt further declines against the Euro (EUR) this week stabilizing around 0.5600 (1.7850) levels. Sentiment towards coronavirus has been positive in early week trading but risk turned Friday with 138 new cases reported in France with investors exiting the kiwi. Macron says it is inevitable that coronavirus will develop into an epidemic in France – the death toll is still only 7. The ECB are forecast to meet on the 13th of March but with added pressure coming on the ECB in recent days to act sooner and cut rates we may see it lower policy by 10 basis points. With effectively less room to manoeuvre rates the Euro could continue to benefit from yield differentials for some time. Sellers of Euro should look at current levels and take advantage of NZD weakness.

Exchange Rates
The current interbank midrate is: NZDEUR 0.5631 EURNZD 1.7758
The interbank range this week has been: NZDEUR 0.5594- 0.5672 EURNZD 1.7630- 1.7875

The NZDEUR has been a very interesting pair over the past couple of weeks with dramatic losses on the back of Coronavirus fears taking the cross to the lowest level since Oct 2018 at 0.5594 (1.7876). While NZD weakness has driven some of the move, a significant factor has also been strength in the Euro (EUR). The Euro’s gains can be at least partially explained by it’s relatively new status as a funding currency for carry trades. The unwinding of those carry trades has caused significant demand for Euros and that has exasperated the move. It’s the sort of price action we are used to seeing in the Japanese Yen (JPY), but with Europe having had negative interest rates for a while now, many of these carry trades are being funded in Euros. It seems likely that the unwinding of those carry trades has now mostly been done, and as such we don’t expect wholesale losses in the cross from here. The NZDEUR has put in a couple of significant lows around the 0.5570 area over the past couple of years and having traded close to that level in recent days, it may we’ll be that this bout of weakness has run its course for now. Clients looking to convert EUR to NZD should look to take advantage of the current weakness..

Exchange Rates
Current Level: 0.5615 (1.7809)
Resistance: 0.5700 (1.7953)
Support: 0.5570 (1.7544)
Last Weeks Range: 0.5595-0.5853 (1.7084-1.7874)

Another wave of Euro (EUR) support saw the New Zealand Dollar extend losses to 0.5750 (1.7390) Friday blowing the previous yearly low of 0.5822 (1.7175) out of the water. The Euro has benefited from solid economic data with German IFO Business Climate numbers publishing at 96.1 from the 96.0 predicted. For January. However, although this has boosted the Euro and is a leading economic indicator it lags one-two months behind the game and won’t show the effects of coronavirus just yet on the economy. Lagarde’s welcomed German plans to pause the debt brake saying Fiscal measures in support of the economy are welcome especially under the current circumstances. With risk sentiment also driving the NZD lower we could see further weakness in the kiwi develop.

Exchange Rates
The current interbank midrate is: NZDEUR 0.5729 EURNZD 1.7455
The interbank range this week has been: NZDEUR 0.5730- 0.5854 EURNZD 1.7082- 1.7449

The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) stabilised Monday against the surging Euro (EUR) around 0.5840 (1.7120) levels after declining from 0.5940 (1.6830) a week ago. Euro data and sentiment hasn’t been good of late, so we have been a little surprised after a hawkish RBNZ last week to see the pair trading so low. Overnight the German Business climate Index (IFO) surprised markets with a read of 96.1 in February stronger than last month’s 95.9. The IFO said the coronavirus has not affected the economy. I am not so sure about that with the index a lagging indicator. Core NZ Retail Sales came in at 0.5% for December after 0.9% was forecast also putting pressure on the kiwi. The yearly low in the cross is 0.5822 (1.7175) which is fast approaching. ANZ Business Confidence is Thursday.

Exchange Rates
Current Level: 0.5845 (1.7108)
Resistance: 0.5880 (1.7180)
Support: 0.5820 (1.7180)
Last Weeks range: 0.5826-0.5949 (1.6813-1.7164)

The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) mysteriously gave back last week’s gains against the Euro (EUR) retreating lower to 0.5858 (1.7070) Friday. Recent comments from RBNZ governor Ore were hawkish after he left rates on hold at 1.0% saying no further cuts for 2020 would happen. Saying the easing cycle is over rallied the kiwi last week but for some reason it hasn’t received the same positive attention this week. After all Euro data hasn’t been good at all – German sentiment was poor and recent comments from the ECB have been downbeat. I don’t get it. All I can conclude is that coronavirus has been boiling away in the background affecting buyer sentiment towards the kiwi. Next week should be different – with NZ Retail Sales and Business Sentiment we could see a reversal back to 0.5950 (1.6800) levels.

Exchange Rates
The current interbank midrate is: NZDEUR 0.5869 EURNZD 1.7038
The interbank range this week has been: NZDEUR 0.5860- 0.5950 EURNZD 1.6804- 1.7063

Weaker economic data out of the Eurozone has sent the Euro (EUR) lower against the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) to 0.5945 (1.6820) reversing the past two weeks of gains. It’s a light calendar this week for pair with just German economic sentiment and French and German Manufacturing data releasing. We are expecting a retest of 0.6150 (1.6270) if data is soft. The ECB minutes from the Jan 24th policy meeting is Friday.

Exchange Rates
Current Level: 0.5937 (1.6843)
Resistance: 0.6220 (1.6260)
Support: 0.6165 (1.6080)
Last Weeks Range: 0.5846-0.5958 (1.6784-1.7105)

The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) reversed the past fortnight of losses against the Euro (EUR) trading back to 0.5945 (1.6820) Friday. The Euro took a blow midweek when Eurozone Industrial Production came in below forecast with a downwardly revised print. The RBNZ cash rate remained unchanged at 1.0% with Ore issuing a neutral statement sending the kiwi higher after markets expected a more dovish tone. Economic growth is expected to improve over the last six months of 2020 with employment near maximum levels. Downside could still come back to affect the NZD if coronavirus is not contained and continues to worsen. Prospects are good for the kiwi to retest the yearly high of 0.6010 (1.6637) in the coming days.

Exchange Rates
The current interbank midrate is: NZDEUR 0.5937 EURNZD 1.6843
The interbank range this week has been: NZDEUR 0.5839- 0.5958 EURNZD 1.6784- 1.7124

The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) hovers around 0.5850 (1.7080) this week against the Euro (EUR) even against poor Euro economic data of late making little impact. Spanish, German and French December Industrial Production all fell short of forecast with Moody’s suggesting Germany’s GDP will remain weak in 2020. This all suggests a deteriorating Euro but with risk factors in the coronavirus impacting sentiment the kiwi bias could fundamentally stay bearish for a while. The yearly daily low is 0.5830 (1.7155) which could come under pressure this week.

Exchange Rates
Current Level: 0.5845 (1.7108)
Resistance: 0.5895 (1.7160)
Support: 0.5830 (1.6970)
Last Weeks Range: 0.5831-0.5896 (1.696-1.7149)

The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) reached an early December 2019 low Friday to 0.5825 (1.7170) against the Euro (EUR) as coronavirus fears impacted price. The kiwi has bounced back slightly into Tuesday to 0.5850 (1.7100) on China’s latest 174B USD liquidity injection to offset a weakened Chinese economy. We have no data out for the Euro, focus in the cross will be on NZ employment data Wednesday. Lagarde testifies Thursday in Paris which could shift price.

Exchange Rates
Current Level: 0.5832 (1.7146)
Resistance: 0.5860 (1.7170)
Support: 0.5825 (1.7060)
Last Weeks Range: 0.5822-0.5952 (1.6801-1.7176)

The New Zealand Dollar stretched to a fresh yearly low of 0.5875 (1.7020) versus the Euro (EUR) Friday as markets react to further coronavirus headlines. German business sentiment fell short of expectation earlier in the week as the outlook deteriorated indicating the German economy has started the year in a watchful mood. Remember they narrowly avoided a recession in 2019. With a lack of significant economic data to publish this week headline risk around the coronavirus should continue to dominate mood with the NZD forecast to drop lower.

Exchange Rates
The current interbank midrate is: NZDEUR 0.5879 EURNZD 1.7009
The interbank range this week has been: NZDEUR 0.5871- 0.5987 EURNZD 1.6702- 1.7030

The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) gave back gains off this week’s open against the Euro (EUR) falling back to last week’s low of 0.5940 (1.6840) as markets turned risk averse. The European Central Bank kept its monetary policy unchanged at minus 0.5% last week and left their bond buying programme at 20B EUR per month outlining the continuation for “as long as necessary”. They also announced the formal start of its “strategy review”. German business sentiment fell yesterday as the outlook deteriorated indicating the German economy has started the year in a watchful mood. Remember they narrowly avoided a recession in 2019. With a lack of significant economic data to publish this week headline risk around the coronavirus should dominate direction.

Exchange Rates
Current Level: 0.5935 (1.6850)
Resistance: 0.5990 (1.6920)
Support: 0.5910 (1.6700)
Last Weeks Range: 0.5934-0.6001 (1.6663-1.6852)

The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) lost ground into Thursday to 0.5940 (1.6835) against the Euro (EUR) as risk markets spooked by the outbreak of Coronavirus filtered into market sentiment. The European Central Bank kept its monetary policy unchanged at minus 0.5% last night and left their bond buying programme at 20B EUR per month outlining the continuation for “as long as necessary”. They also announced the formal start of its “strategy review”. The EUR dropped post release unwinding early week gains to 0.5970 (1.6750) post Lagarde policy statement. NZ CPI came in at 0.5% slightly up from the 0.4% expected and boosted the kiwi to 0.5990 (1.6700)

Exchange Rates
The current interbank midrate is: NZDEUR 0.5986 EURNZD 1.6705
The interbank range this week has been: NZDEUR 0.5938- 0.5991 EURNZD 1.6689- 1.6838

The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) tracked lower off the weekly open to the 0.5950 (1.6800) level in thin Martin Luther King holiday markets. Already this early in the year we note the kiwi has a way to go to recoup losses from the yearly open price at 0.6000 (1.6670) with expectations of the EUR making gains in 2020 we may not see this level for some time. NZ CPI for the fourth quarter 2019 publishes Friday and could surprise. Focus will also be on Friday’s ECB policy statement and cash rate release.

Exchange Rates
Current Level: 0.5953 (1.6798)
Resistance: 0.5970 (1.6900)
Support: 0.5920 (1.6750)
Last Weeks Range: 0.5911-0.5972 (1.6745-1.6919)

The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) travelled to a fresh 17 December low of 0.5910 (1.6920) against the Euro (EUR) Thursday but had soon reversed losses into Friday trading back at 0.5970 (1.6750). With a lack of data markets have been focused on the signing of the phase one trade deal between China and the US, which was mostly priced into currencies. The ECB minutes are released tonight from the December 13 monetary policy meeting. Increased optimism since then may play a part although negative interest rates impact concerns will still be weighing heavily for a while. Price should drift into next Friday’s ECB cash rate release.

Exchange Rates
The current interbank midrate is: NZDEUR 0.5957 EURNZD 1.6786
The interbank range this week has been: NZDEUR 0.5910- 0.5978 EURNZD 1.6726- 1.6919

2019 price points… open 0.5925 (1.6875), close 0.6000 (1.6670), high 0.6140 (1.6288), low 0.5650 (1.7695).
After losing ground to the Euro early in the year down to 0.5930 (1.6860) the New Zealand Dollar bounced back late last week to 0.5975 (1.6730) before underperforming into Tuesday back to 0.5950 (1.6800) Geopolitical tensions between the US and the Middle East have plenty to blame for the NZD weakness this year so far- expect a long road for the kiwi before we see price in this pair back above 0.6000 (1.6660)

Exchange Rates
Current Level: 0.5946 (0.6271)
Resistance: 0.5990 (1.6900)
Support: 0.5920 (1.6700)
Last Weeks Range: 0.5929-0.5991 (1.6691-1.6886)

Stats from last year’s trading in the New Zealand Dollar (NZD), Euro (EUR) pair which may be of interest…2019 open 0.5925 (1.6875), close 0.6000 (1.6670), high 0.6140 (1.6288), low 0.5650 (1.7695). The kiwi lost all gains made towards the end of 2019 coming off a high of 0.6263 (1.5965) falling back to 0.6135 (1.6295) Wednesday, helped by a decent dose of risk off sentiment. Iran and US tensions have reared up again and look to continue to dominate mood over the next few days with no real economic data to publish. The NZD has managed to bounce higher to 0.6185 (1.6170) Thursday, but any further momentum could be short lived.

Exchange Rates
The current interbank midrate is: NZDEUR 0.5986 EURNZD 1.6705
The interbank range this week has been: NZDEUR 0.5929- 0.5990 EURNZD 1.6694- 1.6866

Overnight saw more positive comments out of the ECB , with new head Christine Lagarde cautiously optimistic, commenting that the EU is heading for slow and steady economic recovery. She sees risks are skewed to the downside but less pronounced than before. These comments saw the EUR track higher across the board with the NZD/EUR cross back at 0.5880 low. It is now trading back around the 0.5925 level as the increase in risk sentiment has helped the NZD …should hold around these levels heading into the weekend although the UK election result will have some influence on EUR values. Support 0.5850-resistance 0.6040.
The NZD/EUR cross has seen the NZD down from a 4 month high of 0.5938 now around 0.5915. With the RBNZ on hold and better fundamental data from NZ the NZD should hold current levels with potential to trade back into the 0.5940-0.5990 level , but be wary of any fallout from a breakdown in the Sino/US trade talks as any increase in risk aversion will hurt the NZD more than the EUR.

Exchange Rates
The current interbank midrate is: NZDEUR 0.5912 EURNZD 1.6914
The interbank range this week has been: NZDEUR 0.5882- 0.5939 EURNZD 1.6837- 1.700

Overnight saw more positive comments out of the ECB , with new head Christine Lagarde cautiously optimistic, commenting that the EU is heading for slow and steady economic recovery. She sees risks are skewed to the downside but less pronounced than before. These comments saw the EUR track higher across the board with the NZD/EUR cross back at 0.5880 low. It is now trading back around the 0.5925 level as the increase in risk sentiment has helped the NZD …should hold around these levels heading into the weekend although the UK election result will have some influence on EUR values. Support 0.5850-resistance 0.6040.
The NZD/EUR cross has seen the NZD down from a 4 month high of 0.5938 now around 0.5915. With the RBNZ on hold and better fundamental data from NZ the NZD should hold current levels with potential to trade back into the 0.5940-0.5990 level , but be wary of any fallout from a breakdown in the Sino/US trade talks as any increase in risk aversion will hurt the NZD more than the EUR.

Exchange Rates
The current interbank midrate is: NZDEUR 0.5912 EURNZD 1.6914
The interbank range this week has been: NZDEUR 0.5882- 0.5939 EURNZD 1.6837- 1.700

The ECB will provide guidance for this cross after its Thursday meeting , the first with Christine Lagarde as President…no rate change is expected but expect continuation of current loose monetary policy with comments that countries must do more individually to spur growth. The NZD/EUR cross has seen the NZD down from a 4 month high of 0.5938 now around 0.5915. With the RBNZ on hold and better fundamental data from NZ the kiwi should hold current levels with potential to trade back into the 0.5940-0.5990 level , but be wary of any fallout from a breakdown in the Sino/US trade talks as any increase in risk  aversion will hurt the NZD more than the EUR.

Exchange Rates
Current Level: 0.5914 (1.6909)
Resistance: 0.5950 (1.7000)
Support: 0.5880 (1.6800)
Last weeks Range: 0.5830-0.5950 (1.6808-1.7145)

The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) has extended its run against the Euro (EUR) to 0.5915 (1.6900) as the Euro underperforms for the fourth week. German political uncertainty is still a worry with prospects of a snap election increasing. Spanish manufacturing printed higher than expectation at 47.5 from the 46.5 we were expecting but failed to bolster buyers into the EUR. The Euro is trading well below the 100 day moving average and has dropped below the yearly open price of 0.5900 (1.6950) this week. Next week’s attention is with the ECB cash rate announcement and statement.

Exchange Rates
The current interbank midrate is: NZDEUR 0.5890 EURNZD 1.6977
The interbank range this week has been: NZDEUR 0.5831- 0.5921 EURNZD 1.6887- 1.7149

The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) extended its three week run against the Euro (EUR) to 0.5880 (1.7000) Monday on improved risk. The Euro continues to come under pressure from German political uncertainty as the prospects of a snap election increases. Spanish manufacturing printed higher than expectation at 47.5 from the 46.5 we were expecting but failed to bolster buyers into the EUR. Instead markets have focused on early Monday positive Chinese Manufacturing data which had the markets in a flutter. Also of note – the US is considering higher tariffs after a (WTO) World Trade Organisation ruling. The WTO found that the EU launched aid to Airbus caused adverse effects which in turn cost US firms significant lost profit. The pair is trading at a 16 month high currently a reversal from the mid October low of 0.5650 (1.7700) and looks to target resistance around 0.5900 (1.6960) Buyers shouldn’t wait for 0.6000 these represent very favourable buying of EUR.

Exchange Rates
Current Level: 0.5869 (1.7155)
Resistance: 0.5880 (1.7270)
Support: 0.5790 (1.7000)
Last Weeks Range: 0.5818-0.5884 (1.6994-1.7188)

The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) has gained support over the week against the Euro (EUR) rising to 0.5840 (1.7120), continuing its bullish rally from mid October’s 0.5650 (1.7690). NZ Retail Sales and ANZ Business Confidence gave the kiwi a boost but the kiwi failed to kick on through early September’s 0.5845 (1.7110). German prelim CPI for October is expected to decline by 0.8% against forecast of 0.7% weighed on the EUR into Friday. Next week’s calendar looks bare, price should hover around current levels through to the weekly close with US Thanksgiving holiday creating thin markets.

Exchange Rates
The current interbank midrate is: NZDEUR 0.5828 EURNZD 1.7158
The interbank range this week has been: NZDEUR 0.5810- 0.5844 EURNZD 1.7111- 1.7210

The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) bounced into positive territory Tuesday after a slow start to the week against the Euro (EUR). Trading higher to 0.5830 (1.7160) as NZ Retail Sales printed, the kiwi is back in the game extending its grip on last week’s gains. Retail Sales was a lot stronger for the third quarter supporting the view that the NZ economy could be rebounding rather than sliding. Last week’s German and French Manufacturing and Services PMI came in mixed putting added pressure on the Euro. Attention diverts to ANZ Business Confidence Thursday. A break through 0.5850 (1.7100) will be hard to crack.

Exchange Rates
Current Level: 0.5823 (1.7173)
Resistance: 0.5840 (1.7370)
Support: 0.5760 (1.7120)
Last Weeks Range: 0.5765-0.5842 (1.7118-1.7345)

After the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) rallied to a fresh 12 September high of 0.5835 (1.7440) last week against the Euro (EUR) the Euro has pulled back losses to trade at 0.5765 (1.7350) midweek. Risk factors supported the EUR in the later stages of Thursday with price travelling to 0.5800 (1.7230). A report out from the ECB said- low interest rates are supporting the overall economy and having the effect of encouraging risk which could create financial instability- a little strange, given the Eurozone is not yet showing significant signs of recession. The bullish channel from 0.5660 (1.7660) is still in place with expectations of a retest of 0.5835 (1.7140) over coming days.

Exchange Rates
The current interbank midrate is: NZDEUR 0.5786 EURNZD 1.7283
The interbank range this week has been: NZDEUR 0.5765- 0.5810 EURNZD 1.7210- 1.7346

The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) rallied to a fresh 12 September high last week of 0.5835 (1.7140) against the Euro (EUR) before losing most of the gains to supportive German GDP numbers. From Wednesday price drifted lower through to the close of the week to 0.5795 (1.7260) where it has continued into Tuesday to 0.5780 (1.7305) Looking forward we have Eurozone PMI which will tell us if growth is heading for a contraction in the fourth quarter and minutes of the October 25th ECB meeting. Support on the downside for the kiwi remains at 0.5740 (1.7430) with risk sentiment the key to holding this level.

 

Exchange Rates
Current Level: 0.5775 (1.7316)
Resistance: 0.5830 (1.7230)
Support: 0.5800 (1.7150)
Last Weeks Range: 0.5735-0.5837 (1.7132-1.7436)

The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) rallied off 0.5750 (1.7400) levels to 0.5835 (1.7140) against the Euro (EUR) Wednesday after the RBNZ left rates unchanged. In a surprise move governor Orr left the benchmark rate unchanged at 1.0%. Market consensus was for a cut to 0.75% but Orr wants the recent 50 point cut from August to filter through into the economy before acting again. German economic sentiment posted a better than expected reading with investor mood towards the outlook improving. Following this was German preliminary 3rd quarter GBP which has printed at 0.1% instead of -0.1% analysts were predicting. This news comes as a relief that Germany has avoided slipping into recession. Post release the kiwi gave back gains retracing to 0.5780 (1.7300) Friday. A little risk off sentiment has also helped the EUR gain back losses as trade uncertainty weighs heavily on risk currencies.

 

Exchange Rates
The current interbank midrate is: NZDEUR 0.5784 EURNZD 1.7289
The interbank range this week has been: NZDEUR 0.5735- 0.5834 EURNZD 1.7140- 1.7435

Early Monday we have seen a chunk of Euro (EUR) selling against the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) to 0.5770 (1.7320) as several factors continue to weigh on the EUR. Eurozone inflation downgrades and easing German industrial production along with the view that Germany could slip into technical recession when GDP is released Thursday continues to drag down the EUR. Locally we have the RBNZ cash rate announcement and monetary policy tomorrow with expectations of a cut to 0.75%. This won’t all be priced in, as not all are forecasting a cut, so we could see a pullback towards the open at 0.5740 (1.7430) especially if governor Orr is particularly pessimistic.

Exchange Rates
Current Level: 0.5766 (1.7340)
Resistance: 0.5780 (1.7420)
Support: 0.5740 (1.7310)
Last Weeks Range: 0.5735-0.5780 (1.7301-1.7436)

A choppy week in the New Zealand Dollar (NZD), Euro (EUR) pair kept price pivoting off the opening price of 0.5760 (1.7360). With both currencies coming under pressure this week with NZ Jobs data and ECB’s Holzmann saying monetary policy has done its dash and it’s now time to bring in fiscal stimulus to boost growth. Christine Lagarde gave her first speech as the President of the European Union this week with nothing coming from it regarding any such shifts to monetary policy. With the NZ unemployment rate jumping from 3.9% to 4.2% we expect the RBNZ to cut rates 25 basis points to 0.75% with price to possibly retest the lower range band of 0.5680 (1.7600)

Exchange Rates
The current interbank midrate is: NZDEUR 0.5761 EURNZD 1.7358
The interbank range this week has been: NZDEUR 0.5739- 0.5789 EURNZD 1.7273- 1.7424

Early week support at 0.5790 (1.7280) held for the Euro (EUR) brushing off further declines against the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) recovering during late NY session to 0.5750 (1.7380). Markets await Christine Lagarde’s first speech this week as the new president of the European Central Bank president but recent speak by US trade officials regarding the possibility of not imposing tariffs on auto importers has kept the EUR bid into Tuesday. Tomorrow’s NZ employment release is expected to show a rise in the number of employed at 0.2% for September but the unemployment rate could spike to 4.1% sending the kiwi lower. A daily close above 0.5740 (1.7420) should highlight further downside bias for the kiwi confirmed by the 50 day moving average.
Exchange Rates
Current Level: 0.5750 (1.7390)
Resistance: 0.5780 (1.7460)
Support: 0.5730 (1.7300)
Last Weeks Range: 0.5706-0.5789 (1.7275-1.7516)

The Euro extended its price on the weekly open to 0.5710 (1.7515) against the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) midweek but gave back gains into Friday travelling to 0.5765 (1.7350). The incoming ECB President Lagarde said “economic growth was fragile and precarious” and hit out at Germany and the Netherlands to use their budget surpluses to find investments that could ultimately help stimulate the EU economy. She followed up by saying there’s not enough “solidarity” in the single currency. Meanwhile the German finance minister said tax revenues should remain reasonably robust, even with a slowing economy. Germany is on the verge of a technical recession so let’s see how that goes. Next week on the docket is NZ employment numbers, we expect a retest of 0.5775 (1.7320) if the release is favourable.
Exchange Rates
The current interbank midrate is: NZDEUR 0.5744 EURNZD 1.7410
The interbank range this week has been: NZDEUR 0.5709- 0.5769 EURNZD 1.7333- 1.7515

The Euro (EUR) has extended last week’s run higher against the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) to 0.5710 (1.7510) in thin NZ holiday Monday conditions. There has not been much NZD data released over the past few week’s hampering flows. With a massive week of event risk on the calendar this week markets have moved “risk off” which has led to nervous selling of risk currencies. German prelim CPI m/m along with ANZ Business Confidence will be the focus. Support at 0.5680 (1.7600) should hold.
Exchange Rates
Current Level:0.5730 (1.7450)
Resistance: 0.5775 (1.7600)
Support: 0.5680 (1.7320)
Last Weeks Range: 0.5711-0.5775 (1.7316-1.7511)

With a lack of any meaningful economic news locally this week the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) continued its run higher from last week’s 0.5650 (1.7690) low against the Euro (EUR) to clear a new three week high of 0.5775 (1.7320) before price softened back to 0.5750 (1.7400) Friday. In Draghi’s last ECB meeting before departing as President of the European Central Bank he has kept monetary policy unchanged. Weakness in Eurozone growth and inflation pressures, citing Germany as a very real concern they could fall into recession were among his comments. The ECB stand ready with their September QE monetary stimulus package which should alleviate downside inflation pressures and easing borrowing conditions for consumers and businesses. On the data front this week French PMI and manufacturing data turned in a positive result but Germany was a different story with manufacturing in particular stagnating in the fourth quarter with the Index at alarming levels. Price looks capped at 0.5780 (1.7300) resistance with expectations the kiwi could make another run down towards 0.5815 (1.7200) in the coming weeks.
Exchange Rates
The current interbank midrate is: NZDEUR 0.5742 EURNZD 1.7415
The interbank range this week has been: NZDEUR 0.5714- 0.5774 EURNZD 1.7318- 1.7501

Risk markets continue to push the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) higher against the Euro (EUR) into Tuesday continuing the rally off last week’s low of 0.5650 (1.7700). This week’s attention is with the ECB’s rate announcement and policy statement Friday, the outgoing ECB chief Draghi has said the central bank is ready to change policy related instruments if needed. German finance minister Scholz has been on the wires saying that Germany’s economic situation doesn’t require a rushed fiscal change, expecting growth momentum to continue into the end of the year. Resistance is viewed at 0.5760 (1.7360) if the positive risk mood continues we could retest this area
Exchange Rates
Current Level: 0.5751 (1.7388)
Resistance: 0.5770 (1.7550)
Support: 0.5700 (1.7340)
Last Weeks Range: 0.5650-0.5752 (1.7384-1.7699)

The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) received some relief from the slide to 0.5660 (1.7680) Wednesday against the Euro (EUR) after quarterly CPI printed up on expectations. At 0.7% this was slightly above the 0.6% forecast for third quarter inflation taking the kiwi off the October 2018 low towards 0.5710 (1.7520) Friday. Huge support is close at 0.5590 (1.7900) but if Brexit and general risk improve over the next few weeks, we are more likely to see a retest of the 0.5790 (1.7270) level.
Exchange Rates
The current interbank midrate is: NZDEUR 0.5715 EURNZD 1.7498
The interbank range this week has been: NZDEUR 0.5650- 0.5742 EURNZD 1.7414- 1.7698

The New Zealand Dollar (NZD), Euro (EUR) traded predominantly sideways for most of last week pivoting around the 0.5750 (1.7400) area. We have seen very little economic releases published in this cross over the past two weeks highlighting a lack of any real direction. The main topic of debate has been opposed ECB QE package by a number of ECB members of which some pointed out the new QE stimulus should be a last resort instrument with some arguing that a better solution would have been a 20 point cut to rates with no QE. This week we have NZ CPI q/q Wednesday. Trading Tuesday around 0.5710 (1.7520) we would need to see a daily close below 0.5700 (1.7550) to break further downside momentum.

Exchange Rates
Current Level: 0.5710 (1.7513)
Resistance: 0.5757 (1.7550)
Support: 0.5700 (1.7370)
Last Weeks Range: 0.5696-0.5761 (1.7357-1.7556)

The NZD/EUR cross continues to mark time trading within the 0.5700 level. Last night saw a range of 0.5715/0.5786 with this cross now trading around the 0.5741 level …Continued easing bias by the ECB erodes EUR strength but the RBNZ easing tone is also weighing on any sustained NZD strength…Look for the current 0.5700/0.5800 range to be maintained into next week as the market seeks some clear direction.

Exchange Rates
The current interbank midrate is: NZDEUR 0.5736 EURNZD 1.7433
The interbank range this week has been: NZDEUR 0.5715- 0.5762 EURNZD 1.7354- 1.7496

The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) has bounced around in a choppy market this week against the Euro (EUR) trading around the weekly open of 0.5740 (1.7430). Early week ANZ Business confidence published down at -53.5 the lowest confidence number we have seen in over a decade. NZIER Business Confidence was also poor with a net 35% of businesses surveyed expect a worsening NZ economic outlook. Eurozone annual inflation is expected to be at 0.9% in September, lower than the August 1.0% according to estimates making it the lowest inflation rate since November 2016. Price movement continues to suit the EUR with a possible retest of 0.5680 (1.7600) the recent daily low.

Exchange Rates
The current interbank midrate is: NZDEUR 0.5746 EURNZD 1.7403
The interbank range this week has been: NZDEUR 0.5697- 0.5787 EURNZD 1.7365- 1.7551

Choppy conditions in the New Zealand Dollar (NZD), Euro (EUR) pair continue into Tuesday with the cross bouncing around 0.5750 (1.7400) levels. German preliminary consumer prices printed at 0.0% for September with the final release on October 11 to come in at 0.9% year on year. ANZ Business confidence published down at -53.5 the lowest confidence number we shave seen in over a decade. NZIER Business Confidence was also poor with a net 35% of businesses surveyed expect a worsening NZ economic outlook. Downside bias remains in the pair and a reasonable likelihood we could see price drop back to last week’s long term low of 0.5680 (1.7600) soon

Exchange Rates
Current level: 0.5743 (1.7412)
Resistance: 0.5780 (1.7600)
Support: 0.5688 (1.7310)
Last Weeks Range: 0.5713-0.5781 (1.7298-1.7505)

The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) continued its quest higher this week against the Euro (EUR) after bouncing off the low of 0.5675 (1.7615) to trade around 0.5775 (1.7320) Friday. The Reserve Bank of New Zealand left the official cash rate unchanged on Wednesday at 1.0% but said there’s still room to cut further if necessary. The result was priced into expectations after the RBNZ surprised markets at their & August outing by cutting 50 points. Meeting inflation targets and maintaining high employment are the key focus looking ahead for the central bank amid a weakening global outlook. 0.5880 (1.7000) still holds as resistance if momentum continues for the kiwi. Monday’s ANZ Business Confidence holds interest locally while German monthly CPI also prints Monday ahead of NZIER Business Confidence Tuesday.

Exchange Rates
The current interbank midrate is: NZDEUR 0.5764 EURNZD 1.7349
The interbank range this week has been: NZDEUR 0.5681- 0.5781 EURNZD 1.7297- 1.7602

The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) turned sharply higher from the October 2018 low of 0.5680 (1.7600), against the Euro (EUR) at the weekly open to 0.5730 (1.7460), as risk markets relaxed and equity prices traded back in positive territory. It was a sea of red overnight Monday with French and German Manufacturing figures and Services PMI coming in weaker than expected as well as the Eurozone PMI for September printing at 45.6, a six year low. Also putting the Euro on the back foot was Draghi speaking in Brussels where he admitted that the Eurozone is unlikely to recover in the medium term. Looking ahead we have Wednesday’s RBNZ cash rate announcement. The RBNZ are unlikely to cut rates this time after aggressively cutting 50 points on August 7th. The kiwi should meet resistance around 0.5880 (1.7000) on the return higher.
Exchange Rates
Current Level:0.5721 (1.7479)
Resistance: 0.5760 (1.7600)
Support: 0.5680 (1.7370)
Last Weeks Range: 0.5677-0.5772 (1.7324-1.7615)

This week’s main even in the New Zealand Dollar (NZD), Euro (EUR) cross has been NZ quarterly GDP. Figures showed an improvement to June quarter growth – up 0.5% from 0.4% expected but slightly down on the March quarter of 0.6%. Markets strangely ignored the data choosing to sell NZD into Friday down to 0.5700 (1.7550). This week’s GDT auction produced a better than expected result which was also bought no change to price. Instead markets seem to be concerned over the Fed’ hawkish cut which weighed on sentiment. Next week’s RBNZ official cash rate is announced Wednesday at 2pm and will be the focus next week. 0.5690 (1.7570) is the next long term support area on the chart, a break through here on the daily close could represent much further declines for the kiwi.
Exchange Rates
The current interbank midrate is: NZDEUR 0.5687 EURNZD 1.7583
The interbank range this week has been: NZDEUR 0.5690- 0.5782 EURNZD 1.7294- 1.7574

The Euro (EUR) continued its run against the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) Tuesday to 0.5760 (1.7360) after a brief slump off the weekly open to 0.5780 (1.7300). After the ECB announced further QE last week starting as soon as November, support in the EUR has been evident, perhaps as several ECB members who have voiced their displeasure of the QE package by speaking out that it was a mistake. Relief for the EUR is also coming from talk of fiscal stimulus out of Germany. Movement in the cross this week could favour the EUR, tonight’s German economic sentiment will certainly give us further clues prior to Thursday’s NZ GDP q/q. 0.5685 (1.7590) represents the 112-monthlow in the cross, sellers of EUR should take note and not get overly greedy.
Exchange Rates
Current Level: 0.5756 (1.7373)
Resistance: 0.5790 (1.7590)
Support: 0.5685 (1.7270)
Last Weeks Range: 0.5752-0.5882 (1.7002-1.7386)

Large fluctuations were seen during overnight trading in the New Zealand Dollar (NZD), Euro (EUR) pair on the ECB announcement. Price initially rallied to 0.5885 (1.7000) before retracting to 0.5800 (1.7270) where it currently lies. As expected, the ECB unveiled new stimulus measures to boost the eurozone including cutting the deposit rate from -0.4% to -0.5%. The main interest rate remains at zero. The meeting confirmed the restart of fresh quantitative easing in the form of 20B EUR every month starting on the 1st of November 2019. This move comes as a direct reflection on the status of not only poor economic health in the Eurozone but global uncertainty. Next week’s quarterly GDP is the only significant economic data to release Thursday. Sellers of EUR should consider these levels.
Exchange Rates
The current interbank midrate is: NZDEUR 0.5785 EURNZD 1.7286
The interbank range this week has been: NZDEUR 0.5784- 0.5882 EURNZD 1.7000- 1.7289

The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) is lower off Monday’s open against the Euro (EUR) to 0.5815 (1.7200) levels bucking the trend amid a risk on market. The Euro has firmed on the news that the German government could review their budget to provide tax relief to the economy. Focus this week is firmly on the ECB cash rate and monetary policy statement. 80% of economists are expecting an easing package to be introduced and further quantitative easing to start in October. The ECB haven’t got much choice with inflation expectations not likely to improve any time soon. Price in the cross will bounce around current levels through to Thursday’s ECB meeting.
Exchange Rates
Current Level: 0.5822 (1.7176)
Resistance:0.5885 (1.7600)
Support: 0.5680 (1.7000)
Last Weeks Range: 0.5736-0.5841 (1.7120-1.7435)

The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) continues to gain on the Euro (EUR) this week as risk markets improved and poor Eurozone data continues to pull on the EUR. Price Friday reached 0.5780 (1.7300) after bouncing off recent monthly support at 0.5695 (1.7570) Next week we have the ECB cash rate and monetary policy statement. 80% of economists are expecting an easing package to be introduced and further quantitative easing to start in October. A cut to -0.50% is priced in as well. The ECB haven’t got much choice as the inflation isn’t likely to pick up any time soon, especially given the state of the Eurozone and more importantly the world economic outlook. We note that price has moved above the 100 day moving average at 0.5760 (1.7370) suggesting we may see further upside for the kiwi.
Exchange Rates
The current interbank midrate is: NZDEUR 0.5777 EURNZD 1.7310
The interbank range this week has been: NZDEUR 0.5724- 0.5786 EURNZD 1.7281- 1.7470

The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) recovered off Friday’s daily close of 0.5710 (1.7510) to push higher to 0.5750 (1.7390) off Monday’s open in the wake or poor eurozone (EUR) data. A light economic docket this week should keep the pair in recent ranges through to Friday’s US Non-Farm Payroll print. We have seen some weakness develop in EUR with the shaky Italian coalition alliance to be formed by Italian prime minister Giuseppe Conte. Even Trump has made comment it’s unfair to see such a weak EUR. The kiwi may get pushed along this week by Australian data releases, we expect the fortnight high of 0.5800 (1.7250) to come into view.
Exchange Rates
Current Level: 0.5746 (1.7403)
Resistance: 0.5815 (1.7575)
Support: 0.5690 (1.7200)
Last Weeks Range: 0.5694-0.5763 (1.7353-1.7573)

The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) posted further declines against the Euro (EUR) this week retesting the yearly low of 0.5690 (1.7570). Poor ANZ Business confidence figures showed optimism fell to -52.3 from the predicted -44.3 down 8 points with businesses expecting conditions to worsen over the coming year, the lowest since 2008. German inflation figures for August shrank to -0.2% from -0.1% expected failing to shift EUR momentum away. 0.5815 (1.7200) is seen as heavy resistance leading into a quiet week of economic data in the pair.
Exchange Rates
The current interbank midrate is: NZDEUR 0.5695 EURNZD 1.7559
The interbank range this week has been: NZDEUR 0.5690- 0.5769 EURNZD 1.7332- 1.7572

The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) declined further Monday versus the Euro (EUR) extending last week’s losses to 0.5685 (1.7590) as risk currencies took a back seat to another round of risk aversion. NZ Retail Sales posted a good result coming in higher than expectations at 0.2% for the June quarter but failed to spark any NZD momentum with markets spooked by increasing trade war uncertainties as Trump and Chinese officials go head to head again. Euro manufacturing improved but overall we see the Eurozone possibly drifting into recession by fourth quarter 2019. For now the focus this week is on ANZ Business confidence and German prelim monthly CPI Thursday. The kiwi must get past 0.5790 (1.7270) if it is to regain prior week losses.
Exchange Rates
Current Level: 0.5750 (1.7392)
Resistance: 0.5790 (1.7570)
Support: 0.5695 (1.7270)
Last Weeks Range: 0.5685-0.5800 (1.7240-1.7591)

Broad based New Zealand dollar (NZD) weakness has contributed to the decline seen in this pair over the past week. The only data of note from New Zealand will be this mornings retails sales data out in an hour or so. The market is looking for a small gain of 0.1%. On the Euro (EUR) side of the equation we have seen some small improvements in manufacturing and service PMI’s but it hasn’t been enough to change the overall outlook for the European economy which looks set to struggle over the coming quarters. For now, the focus remains on the downside for the pair with a test of near term support at 0.5720 (1.7483) likely in the coming days.
Exchange Rates
The current interbank midrate is: NZDEUR 0.5746 EURNZD 1.7403
The interbank range this week has been: NZDEUR 0.5742 – 0.5814 EURNZD 1.7200 – 1.7416

Action in the New Zealand Dollar (NZD), Euro (EUR) pair has pooled around the 0.5780 (1.7300) over the past week after four straight weeks of NZD declines. Eurozone Trade Balance disappointed after the surplus was eroded to 17.9B and German GDP increased the chances of Germany slipping into a recession if third quarter GDP doesn’t improve. Thursday’s manufacturing data for France and Germany will be key the key focus along with NZ retail Sales Friday. Those looking to sell EUR should consider these attractive levels. Expect volatility heading towards the end of the week with the Jackson Hole Symposium starting in Wyoming Thursday.
Exchange Rates
Current Level: 0.5781 (0.6335)
Resistance: 0.5815 (1.7450)
Support: 0.5730 (1.7200)
Last Weeks Range: 0.5723-0.5814 (1.7200-1.7472)

Risk averse markets favoured the Euro (EUR) earlier this week with price climbing to 0.5720 (1.7480) against the New Zealand Dollar (NZD). However, a contraction in second quarter German GDP had investors selling the EUR after printing at -0.1%, but the economy grew by 0.4% compared to the same quarter in 2018. The figures follow an upside surprise of 0.4% in the first quarter of 2019 showing the economy is still growing over the first half of the year- Just. These weak figures could suggest we may see a contraction in the third quarter which would put Germany in a recession. French and German manufacturing prints next week
Exchange Rates
The current interbank midrate is: NZDEUR 0.5792 EURNZD 1.7265
The interbank range this week has been: NZDEUR 0.5723- 0.5813 EURNZD 1.7202- 1.7473

Risk averse market sentiment is driving price action across the board with the Euro (EUR), New Zealand Dollar (NZD) pair no exception. Last week the EUR extended its run north to 0.5690 (1.7575) after the surprising RBNZ rate cut to 1.0%, but later reversed back to 0.5810 (1.7215) German economic sentiment prints tonight and could follow the trend of the past three months showing deteriorating economic health. The “risk on” mood should suit the Euro this week as the US/China trade standoff rages on.
Exchange Rates
Current Level: 0.5753 (1.7382)
Resistance: 0.5815 (1.7580)
Support: 0.5690 (1.7200)
Last Weeks Range: 0.5702-0.5867 (1.7044-1.7537)

The Euro (EUR) extended its run north against a weakened New Zealand Dollar (NZD) into Wednesday to 0.5690 (1.7575) after markets were caught out by the RBNZ announcement.
The RBNZ surprised markets by dropping the official cash rate to 1.0% from 1.5% in a move where markets were expecting only a 25 basis point shift lower to 1.25%. It was an unbelievable decision given the only time the RBNZ has cut rates by 50 points in the past was after the 9/11 terrorist attack, during the GFC, and post 2011 Christchurch earthquakes. It’s unlikely we will see further cuts now for a while, possibly November taking it down to 0.75%. The NZD has regained losses Friday to trade back around 0.5795 (1.7260) area. Anyone selling EUR now proposes attractive selling of NZDEUR.
Exchange Rates
The current interbank midrate is: NZDEUR 0.5793 EURNZD 1.7262
The interbank range this week has been: NZDEUR 0.5689- 0.5878 EURNZD 1.7012- 1.7575

The Euro (EUR) extended its run north against a weakened New Zealand Dollar (NZD) into Monday to 0.5830 (1.7150) after markets turned risk averse Friday, investors exiting from risk currencies such as the kiwi. Over recent weeks the NZD has all but given back what was an impressive recovery. But with downside pressures from a dovish RBNZ along with last week’s less than dovish ECB price has supported the EUR. Nothing this week on the eurozone calendar lends us to focus on today’s NZ employment figures and quarterly inflation expectations before tomorrow’s RBNZ’s official cash rate decision. Its widely viewed that governor Lowe will cut rates from 1.5% to 1.25% with further easing in the coming months. In news just released the NZ unemployment rate fell to 3.9% in the June quarter down from market expectations of 4.2% in the March quarter. With the fall in the unemployment rate this has reflected in 9,000 people being added to the NZ workforce bringing the total number of unemployed to 109,000 in NZ. Price reversed to 0.5875 (1.7020) before returning to 0.5835 (1.7140) around lunch.
Exchange Rates
Current Level: 0.5842 (1.7117)
Resistance: 0.5885 (1.7270)
Support: 0.5790 (1.7000)
Last Weeks Range: 0.5806-0.5955 (1.6794-17224)

The Euro (EUR) has extended recent moves higher against the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) reaching 0.5910 (1.6920) Friday morning. Positive sentiment towards the EUR from last week’s ECB no change to monetary policy continues to support the EUR this week. ANZ Business Confidence for July showed a deterioration in sentiment buy firms highlighting an even more pessimistic opinions from the previous month as outlook for growth and employment intentions weigh heavy. GDP in the eurozone continues to grow but not fast enough to meet the ECB’s target of around 1.0%. The ECB will ease policy again at the September meeting. Given the strong rebound in the Euro sellers of EUR should consider current levels around 0.5900 (1.6960)
Exchange Rates
The current interbank midrate is: NZDEUR 0.5911 EURNZD 1.6917
The interbank range this week has been: NZDEUR 0.5907- 0.5952 EURNZD 1.6801- 1.6928

The Euro (EUR) has continued where it left off last week pushing higher against the weakened New Zealand Dollar (NZD) to 0.5950 (1.6800) levels Tuesday morning. Positive sentiment towards the EUR from last week’s ECB no change to monetary policy saw a lift in the EUR which continues into this week. ANZ Business Confidence prints tomorrow the only significant item on the calendar this week. EU Flash CPI y/y figures will release Wednesday night and show a drop to around 1.0% from the 1.2% currently. A retest of resistance at 0.5900 (1.6960) is possible this week if price trend continues.

Exchange Rates
Current Level: 0.5950 (1.6806)
Resistance: 0.6050 (1.7000)
Support: 0.5880 (1.6520)
Last Weeks Range: 0.5944-0.6038 (1.6563-1.5824)

Heavy volumes in the Euro (EUR) saw large swings in the Euro (EUR), New Zealand Dollar (NZD) cross during the European trading session overnight with the ECB announcement interest rates would remain at record lows for now or at least until early 2020. Price initially rose to 0.6030 (1.6575) then a “no-cut” to rates sent positivity through markets sending the EUR to 0.5970 (1.6750) Draghi stopped short of saying rates would drop but he was clearly preparing markets for things to come possibly changes in the next meeting in September. Draghi said a significant amount of stimulus was needed to make sure the financial environment supports growth in the Eurozone. He went on to say they were researching possibilities of further QE with TLTROs in the picture. A further clean break lower to 0.5940 (1.6830) would indicate a broader trend lower and could spell trouble for the kiwi.

Exchange Rates
The current interbank midrate is: NZDEUR 0.5968 EURNZD 1.0675
The interbank range this week has been: NZDEUR 0.5968- 0.6051 EURNZD 1.6526- 1.6754

The NZDEUR has spent the past week relentlessly grinding higher, trading to a fresh cycle high of 0.6050 overnight. There are however some tentative signs that this rally is growing tired and the pair may well now struggle to make significant further gains in the near term. A period of consolidation, or an outright correction lower, could easily develop in the coming days. New Zealand dollar (NZD) outperformance has been a theme against many other currencies over the past week, and it’s hard to point to any particular individual driver. On the Euro (EUR) side of the equation, the single currency has been hampered by speculation about potential new stimulus measures to be announced at this week’s ECB meeting. That meeting will be the primary focus for the market and it will drive the pair over the latter stage of this week. Ahead of that meeting we do have a raft of PMI’s from Europe to digest along with NZ Trade Balance data.

Exchange Rates
Current Level: 0.6015 (1.6625)
Resistance: 0.6090 (1.6807)
Support: 0.5950 (1.6420)
Last Weeks Range: 0.5964-0.6050 (1.6528-1.6767)

The New Zealand dollar (NZD) has had a strong week against most other currencies, and the Euro (EUR) is no exception. The pair has seen relentless gains and traded to a cycle high of 0.6023 overnight. Initial resistance is seen around 0.6050 and it looks like that could be tested in the coming days. Any break above that level would open the way for a move to 0.6130. At this stage there is little to suggest the rally has run out of steam, so the focus remains on the topside and further potential gains. Locally next week we just have the trade balance to digest, while from Europe we get manufacturing and service PMI’s along with the European Central Bank’s Monetary Policy Statement.

Exchange Rates
The current interbank midrate is: NZDEUR 0.6016 EURNZD 1.6622
The interbank range this week has been: NZDEUR 0.5918 – 0.6023 EURNZD 1.6604 – 1.6898

The New Zealand dollar (NZD) has completely outperformed the Euro (EUR) over the past week, driven higher by dovish comments from US Fed Chair Powell and then boosted further by yesterday’s solid Chinese activity data. The pair has traded to a high of 0.5976 so far and there is nothing to suggest the rally is done yet. There is some resistance around 0.5690 the market will have to overcome however before it can even think about the longer term target of 0.6050. Downside support is now seen around 0.5900.

Exchange Rates
Current Level: 0.5969 (1.6754)
Resistance: 0.6050 (1.6529)
Support:0.5900 (1.6529)
Last Weeks Range: 0.5864-0.5976 (1.6734-1.7053)

The New Zealand dollar (NZD) heads into the closing stages of this week trading close to where it opened the week against the Euro (EUR), just above 0.5900. We did see a period of relative NZD weakness in the first half of the week, with the pair having a quick flurry down to a low of 0.5864, before staging a sharp recovery, but since then the NZD has had the edge over the EUR with the pair looking like it might retest the recent high of 0.5954. The economic calendar is a little light from Europe next week with only second tier data set for release, while from NZ we have inflation data to digest. Look for further ranging between 0.5840 and 0.5960 over the coming week.

Exchange Rates
The current interbank midrate is: NZDEUR 0.5915 EURNZD 1.6906
The interbank range this week has been: NZDEUR 0.5864 – 0.5933 EURNZD 1.6855 – 1.7053

Starting in late June, the New Zealand dollar (NZD) has significantly outperformed the Euro (EUR) driving the cross rate to a high of 0.5954 mid last week. Since then however we have seen a correction back toward the 0.5900 area where the pair currently trades. This correction has largely been driven by weakness in the NZD, and while we may see the NZD lose some further ground, we are not expecting the pair to head back to the 0.5800 area where it was trading in mid-June. There is in fact solid support around the 0.5840 level and we believe that will contain any potential periods of NZDEUR weakness over the coming days. We may well see the pair range between the parameters of 0.5840 and 0.5960 over the coming week or two.

Exchange Rates
Current Level: 0.5904 (1.6937)
Resistance: 0.5955 (1.7123)
Support: 0.5840 (1.6793)
Last Weeks Range: 0.5888-0.5954 (1.6795-1.6985)

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