NZD to AUD – Australian Dollar to New Zealand Dollar
When converting NZD to AUD, or Australian Dollars to New Zealand Dollars (AUD to NZD), by exchanging via Direct FX, you will save a significant amount of money. Our wholesale currency exchange rates for money transfers, are significantly more competitive than bank foreign exchange rates. Being Australasian based, we specialise in knowing what drives NZD to AUD currency conversion rates.
NZD to AUD Overview: Australia is New Zealand’s biggest trading partner. Therefore the performance of the New Zealand economy and the NZD, is closely linked to the Australian economy and AUD. Due to this extremely close correlation, when compared to other currency pairs, the NZD to AUD exchange rate remains one of the most stable. More often than not, it is the interest rate differential between the two countries, that dictate the prevailing NZD to AUD exchange rate.
|Historical Ranges:||1 year||5 years||10 years|
|NZD/AUD||.8949 – .9760||.8754 – .9974||.7242 – .9974|
|AUD/NZD||1.0246 – 1.1174||1.0026 – 1.1424||1.0026 – 1.3808|
Current Official Cash Rates:
Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ): 0.25% Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA): 0.25%
We provide insight into the New Zealand Dollar and Australian Dollar (NZD/AUD) currency pair by reporting trends, market news and providing relative currency charts.
The Australian Dollar (AUD) continues to strengthen against the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) in 2021 to today’s 0.9260 (1.0800). The kiwi pushed back late December to regain losses at 0.9410 (1.0630) but failed to push on. Demand for the AUD has outperformed the kiwi as equity markets and commodities make gains. Iron Ore prices have rallied of late with Chinese steel production numbers hitting record highs. Trading at close to near decade highs around 174.00 per tonne the Aussie Dollar has benefited a great deal. Australian employment data prints Thursday with unemployment for December expected to show 6.7% and possibly rally the AUD further.
Current level: 0.9257 (1.0795)
Resistance: 0.9300 (1.0900)
Support: 0.9175 (1.0750)
Last Weeks Range: 0.9252-0.9317 (1.0733-1.0808)
Weaker NZD on this cross overnight falling to a 0.9343 low overnight, as both antipodean currencies were hit by a reduction in risk appetite as COVID-19 cases surged across Europe and the US… Although the AUD was more resilient to the selloff the Kiwi has recovered slightly on this cross to be back around 0.9367 (1.0676) ….to date any moves below the support level at 0.9350 have been short-lived but tomorrow’s Aussie trade data may provide the impetus for a move lower…we maintain our pick for the Aussie on this cross, however the Covid outbreak in Sydney is a concern especially if the outbreak becomes more widespread and the other states continue with NSW border closures on a more extended basis…..Volatility is likely to be the norm over the next two weeks as market volumes thin …0.9200 to 0.9460 wide range over the next week or so.
Current level: 0.9349 (1.0686)
Resistance: 0.9442 (1.0760)
Support: 0.9293 (1.0590)
Last Weeks Range: 0.9352-0.9422 (1.0613-1.0692)
The NZ dollar (NZD) has had a gradual decline on this cross over the week, from 0.9422 (1.0613) to 0.9353 (1.0692) .Yesterday’s robust Q3 GDP result saw the NZD/AUD cross back at the 0.9400 (1.0638) mark, but the better Aussie jobs data has pushed the NZD back under the 0.9400 (1.0638) level to its current 0.9380 (1.0661) mark. Increased global risk sentiment amid vaccine deployment and China’s economic outperformance are currently benefiting the AUD more than the NZD, with Iron ore’s spectacular performance appears to have been belatedly priced into the cross, although headwinds exist for the AUD should the China/Aussie coal spat escalate. The AUD is continued to be favoured on this cross if support at 0.9350 (1.0695) breaks then targeting a move to the 0.9289 (1.0765) level, a sustained move over 0.9400 (1.0638) targets 0.9460 (1.0571).
The current interbank midrate is: NZDAUD 0.9380 AUDNZD 1.0653
The interbank range this week has been: NZDAUD 0.9354- 0.9422 AUDNZD 1.0613- 1.0690
The volatility seen last week on the NZD/AUD cross looks to have abated with this cross settling around the 0.9400 (1.0638) mark. Aussie RBA minutes published later today are not expected to bring any surprises after the RBA kept rates on hold earlier in the month. We expect much of this week’s attention to remain on the USD so any this cross should remain relatively stable over the next few days. Thursday will bring NZ Q3 GDP which is expected to show that the New Zealand recovery has overtaken that of many of its key trading partners, in part thanks to successful virus management and the macroeconomic policy response (including the deterioration in the Government’s books).Aussie employment data also on Thursday will be one to watch. The AUD continues to look preferred on this cross- look for 0.9350- 0.9450 range over the next few days.
Current Level: 0.9389 (1.0641)
Resistance: 0.9590 (1.0760)
Support: 0.9300 (1.0430)
Last Weeks Range: 0.9385-0.9513 (1.0512-1.0655)
The Australian dollar (AUD) has outperformed the New Zealand dollar (NZD) this week driving the cross rate below key long term trend support at 0.9430 (1.0604). This leaves the cross in a precarious position, and while we should see a small corrective bounce from the current level, the risks have increased dramatically that we will see further weakness between now and Christmas. It’s hard to pinpoint what has caused the move in the NZDAUD rate, but for sure the AUD is finding some support from strong iron ore prices. Current trading at $146.2 per tonne, that’s the highest level since 2013. Topside resistance for the pair now comes in around 0.9440 and while that caps any near-term strength, the risks remains skewed toward further downside for the pair. Next week on Thursday we have Australian employment data to digest along with GDP data from New Zealand.
The current interbank midrate is: NZDAUD 0.9420 AUDNZD 1.0616
The interbank range this week has been: NZDAUD 0.9397 – 0.9520 AUDNZD 1.0504 – 1.0642
The Australian Dollar (AUD) New Zealand Dollar (NZD) cross reversed from the high of 0.9600 (1.0415) Friday, post third quarter GDP releasing midweek, falling back to 0.9480 (1.0550) at the close. This week’s action has seen the cross up at 0.9510 (1.0515) and back to 0.9480 (1.0550) Tuesday holding most of the recent gains. GDP confirmed the Australian economy is formally out of recession with growth of 3.3% in the third quarter, higher than the 2.5% predicted. Even with recent Aussie strength the cross is still deep within the bullish channel from 0.9060 (1.1040) from mid-August and needs to show a break outside of 0.9390 (1.0650) before a new trend reversal on the downside is confirmed.
Current Level: 0.9476 (1.0547)
Resistance: 0.9595 (1.0620)
Support: 0.9420 (1.0420)
Last Weeks Range: 0.9463-0.9600 (1.0417-1.0568)
The New Zealand dollar (NZD) made solid gains against its Australian cousin, the AUD, in the first half of the week briefly trading to just under 0.9600 before Wednesday’s release of Australian GDP. That better than forecast data, with third quarter growth printing at 3.3%, seems to have turned the tide for the pair, at least for the time being, and we’ve seen a steady decline to the current 0.9500 level in the 48 or so hours since. That being said, the longer term uptrend which has been in place since the late August low of 0.9057, will not be called into doubt unless key trend support around 0.9420 is broken. So the NZDAUD cross could easily fall another 80 points, without threatening the longer term bullish trend. Clients looking to convert AUD to NZD should take advantage of any further weakness toward that 0.9420 level.
The current interbank midrate is: NZDAUD 0.9507 AUDNZD 1.0519
The interbank range this week has been: NZDAUD 0.9504 – 0.9600 AUDNZD 1.0417 – 1.0522
The New Zealand Dollar continues to post fresh highs against the Australian Dollar (AUD) reaching 0.9560 (1.0460) late Monday extending its recent form. With no local NZ economic data releasing this week our focus will be on today’s RBA monetary statement and rate announcement followed by third quarter GDP. We are not expecting much hoopla around the RBA with no changes to 0.10% or policy anticipated – instead GDP has the potential to shift price considerably. Third quarter GDP is predicted to be 2.4%, a decent rebound from second quarter’s -7.0% and first Q -0.3%. Several Australian banks are predicting the figure to be much higher than 2.4% with massive increases over the past 3 months in household spending driving this. If this happens, we could see a spike in AUD buying. Certainly over the past few hours we are already seeing an improvement in the AUD as the cross travels back to 0.9540 (1.0480). Buyers looking to make the most out of this NZD trend above 0.9500 levels should consider now.
Current Level: 0.9543 (1.0471)
Resistance: 0.9560 (1.0560)
Support: 0.9470 (1.0460)
Last Weeks Range: 0.9468-0.9567 (1.0453-1.0562)
After the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) climbed to 0.9550 (1.0470) early week against the Australian Dollar (AUD) price action has been pivoting around the 0.9505 (1.0520) area in the past few days as the cross considers its next directional move. NZ Retail Sales was huge in the third quarter at 28% against second’s -14% showing a pickup in local consumer spending, while Aussie Construction, and Private Capital Expenditure wasn’t so positive for the AUD coming in slightly lower than predicted. Next week’s RBA statement should be pretty uneventful but post RBA is third quarter GDP which may not be. Markets are predicting a rise to around 1.4% economic growth and a return out from recession.
The current interbank midrate is: NZDAUD 0.9515 AUDNZD 1.0505
The interbank range this week has been: NZDAUD 0.9468- 0.9549 AUDNZD 1.0472- 1.0561
The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) soured past July 2020 highs late last week against the Australian Dollar (AUD) on its way to post 0.9512 (1.0513). This week the cross has held 0.9505 (1.0520) levels as it waits for further directional cues. A less dovish RBNZ with a view to not cutting rates to 0.10% until around May next year continues to interest buyers regarding the attractiveness of the kiwi carry trade. Monday’s NZ Retail Sales published at 28.0% for the third quarter a massive jump from second quarter’s -14% reflecting rises to consumer domestic spending. NZ Governor Orr speaks tomorrow prior to Aussie Private Capital Expenditure Thursday. Both may not impact price much. Levels in the pair should remain in recent ranges.
Current Level: 0.9492 (1.0526)
Resistance: 0.9515 (1.0550)
Support: 0.9480 (1.0510)
Last Weeks Range: 0.9410-0.9511 (1.0514-1.0627)
It’s been one-way traffic this week in the New Zealand Dollar (NZD), Australian Dollar (AUD) pair with price moving from the weekly open around 0.9435 (1.0600) to 0.9505 (1.0520) into midday Friday. Extending last week’s rally from in the kiwi to the early April daily close, we expect the NZD is not done yet and could take a look at 0.9570 (1.0450) over the next few days. Aussie jobs numbers Wednesday were pretty good, certainly not reflective of the weakness we have seen this week. A large number of people returned to the workforce- 178,000 with unemployment ticking up slightly to 7.0% from 7.1% forecast. NZ Retail Sales and Aussie construction data are the highlights on the docket next week. At some point we will see a pullback in the cross to perhaps 0.9450 (1.0580) levels before broadly trading higher.
The current interbank midrate is: NZDAUD 0.9491 AUDNZD 1.0528
The interbank range this week has been: NZDAUD 0.9416- .9507 AUDNZD 1.0518- 1.0620
The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) backed off from last week’s high of 0.9480 against the Australian Dollar (AUD) closing the week around 0.9420 (1.0615). RBA Lowe spoke yesterday saying 2020 will be a year that people will be talking about for decades to come. The closing of borders, the largest budget deficit and interest rates down around zero marks the biggest economic downturn in nearly a century. He went on to say Australia could see a rapid turnaround if they can get good news on the health front. Lowe speaks again tomorrow before Australian employment data. Unemployment is expected to worsen for the month of October. We see further upside pressures in the pair towards 0.9500 continuing into next week.
Current Level: 0.9435 (1.0592)
Resistance: 0.9470 (1.0750)
Support: 0.9300 (1.0560)
Last Weeks Range: 0.9360-0.9493 (1.0534-1.0684)
The Australian Dollar (AUD) has reversed all, and then some, of its gains made last week against the New Zealand Dollar retreating from 1.0760 (0.9295) to 1.0550 (0.9480) in just a few days. The kiwi rallied Wednesday after the RBNZ announcement turned out to be less dovish than markets were anticipating. The RBNZ left the interest rate unchanged at 0.25% as well as the large asset purchases program. The committee agreed that additional stimulus would be provided through a “funding for Lending Program” (FLP) starting in December. This would allow the central bank to pass on cheap funding to banks. Into Friday the kiwi has held onto gains as investors weigh up prospects of “carry trade” incentives heading into 2021. The RBNZ may not drop the cash rate to 0.10% until May. A daily close past 0.9470 (1.0560) spells trouble for the AUD.
The current interbank midrate is: NZDAUD 0.9445 AUDNZD 1.0583
The interbank range this week has been: NZDAUD 1.0545- 1.0727 AUDNZD 0.9322- 0.9483
The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) outperformed the Australian Dollar (AUD) heading into Tuesday sessions climbing to 0.9380 (1.0660) from 0.9320 (1.0730) Monday. The RBNZ will reiterate a negative rate stance tomorrow when they meet but this won’t take effect until early 2021. The current cash rate is 0.25% which is expected to remain. Instead Orr could discuss further details regarding their “large Scale Asset Purchase” facilities and forward guidance. Given the RBA have already cut their rate to 0.10% last week we may see further upside “carry trade” NZD buyers come forward over the next few weeks based on the attractiveness of buying kiwi with a better return. The prior high at 0.9435 (1.0600) looks our preferred outcome for price to retest this area over the coming days/weeks.
Current Level: 0.9371 (1.0664)
Resistance: 0.9445 (1.0750)
Support: 0.9305 (1.0590)
Last Weeks Range: 0.9295-0.9430 (1.0605-1.0758)
A solid rebound by the Australian Dollar over the week against the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) has taken price to 0.9302 (1.0750) Friday a 3 week low. The RBA dropped the official cash rate from 0.25% to 0.10% Tuesday and added an extra 100B worth of buying to the 5 and 10 year govt bonds in efforts to boost the flow of money in the economy. They also made mention of inflation targets of 2-3% band being achievable over the next two years and obtaining a much lower unemployment rate. The RBA won’t raise the cash rate for at least 3 years. NZ’s Unemployment rate rose from 4.0% to 5.3% midweek for the third quarter putting added pressure on the kiwi. Looking ahead we have RBNZ Cash Rate announcement Wednesday with no change expected.
The current interbank midrate is: NZDAUD 0.9324 AUDNZD 1.0713
The interbank range this week has been: NZDAUD 0.9295- 0.9433 AUDNZD 1.0600- 1.0758
The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) lost ground to the Australian Dollar (AUD) this week, the Aussie clawing back losses from 0.9435 (1.0600) high to 0.9395 (1.0640) midday Tuesday. Long Term resistance back to July at 0.9460 held as we head into today’s RBA meeting and Melbourne Cup. The RBA is widely forecast to cut rates from 0.25% to 0.10% to further support a flailing economy with further bond buying predicted as efforts ramp up to keep unemployment low and boost inflation. Wednesday’s NZ jobs data and Unemployment Rate is forecast to rise to over 5.0% for the third quarter from 4.0% second quarter. We think pressure should remain on the kiwi over the week.
Current Level: 0.9400 (1.0635)
Resistance: 0.9460 (1.0880)
Support: 0.9190 (1.0570)
Last Weeks Range: 0.9369-0.9440 (1.0593-1.0674)
The Australian Dollar (AUD) declines continue to extend against the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) with price surging towards 0.9450 (1.0580) midday Friday. The Aussie fought back midweek to 0.9380 (1.0660) around the quarterly CPI release but was unable to push on. Consumer prices rose slightly by 1.6% in the latest quarter to September reflecting a rebound. The annual index increased by 0.7% from the second quarter, up on estimates of 0.6%. The biggest contributor to the number was childcare which returned from “free care” during the June coronavirus led quarter result. Heavy resistance on the chart at 0.9460 (1.0570) should offer an AUD reprieve, above this level and anything is possible back at early 2020 levels.
The current interbank midrate is: NZDAUD 0.9425 AUDNZD 1.0612
The interbank range this week has been: NZDAUD 0.9369- 0.9440 AUDNZD 1.0593- 1.0673
Our view on a return to 0.9400 (1.0638) pre weekly close was bang on with price bouncing off this level back to 0.9380 in the New Zealand Dollar (NZD), Australian Dollar (AUD) pair. We saw another attempt by the kiwi to push into new territory Monday again but 0.9400 (1.0638) was rejected to the 0.9375 (1.0665) region. NZ markets took a break yesterday with “Labour Day Holiday” creating thin pricing. On the calendar is Australian 3rd quarter CPI printing Wednesday expected to be circa 1.5% inflation which will be clearly capped by the recent coronavirus outbreak in the state of Victoria. Watch for another test at 0.9400 (1.0638) and a possible break into early July levels.
Current Level: 0.9370 (1.0665)
Resistance: 0.9435 (1.1000)
Support: 0.9090 (1.0600)
Last Weeks Range: 0.9324-0.9400 (1.0638-1.0725)
The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) extended its bull run through 0.9350 (1.0695) this week against the Australian Dollar (AUD) on its way to a fresh mid-July high of 0.9394 (1.0645) early Friday. Aussie traders brought back the Aussie into midday Friday to 0.9354 (1.0690) as the kiwi tapered off after CPI released. CPI third quarter came in at 0.7% not too bad all things considered but slightly down on the 0.9% expected. We think the cross will make another go at 0.9400 before the weekly close, certainly with Australian third quarter CPI expected to be around zero next week we could see an early squeeze higher in the kiwi.
The current interbank midrate is: NZDAUD 0.9364 AUDNZD 1.0669
The interbank range this week has been: NZDAUD 0.9320- 0.9394
As the Australian Bureau of Statistics released jobs numbers the Australian Dollar (AUD) fell away against the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) reached a weekly high of 0.9345 (1.0700). The number of employed fell 29,000 in September following a jump in August numbers of 129,000. The Unemployment Rate rose to 6.9% from 6.8% also putting added pressure on the AUD. Lowe spoke Thursday reinforcing comments of a rate cut as early as 3rd November to 0.10% and RBNZ’s Hawkesbury also, all but confirmed negative rates are a given possibly later this year or early 2021. Price on the chart has bounced off pivotal resistance circa 0.9330 (1.0715) the high from late July. We think this should hold with the AUD making a comeback into the close.
The current interbank midrate is: NZDAUD 0.9314 AUDNZD 1.0729
The interbank range this week has been: NZDAUD 1.0703- 1.0859 AUDNZD 0.9209- 0.9343
The Australian Dollar (AUD), New Zealand Dollar (NZD) remains in recent ranges Tuesday with very little movement to start the week, the pair trading around the 0.9225 (1.0840) area. Australia’s Financial Stability Review highlighted many ongoing issues facing the economic recovery from the coronavirus pandemic, of special note- sadly, some businesses will never recover and that widespread credit defaults are vast. Some households have experienced significant falls in income due to job losses or reduced working hours but have been supported by government income support relief. Looking ahead we see Aussie jobs numbers on docket with unemployment numbers expected to clock a higher number for September over August’s 6.8%. Any price moves this week should be limited to the recent 0.9175 (1.0900) – 0.9295 (1.0760) range.
Current Level: 0.9219 (1.0839)
Resistance: 0.9320 (1.0920)
Support: 0.9160 (1.0730)
Last Weeks Range: 0.9179-0.9300 (1.0753-1.0894)
The Australian Dollar (AUD) rallied Wednesday reversing earlier losses from 0.9295 (1.0760) and reached 0.9180 (1.0890) against the New Zealand Dollar (NZD). As we said in the earlier commentary – recent movement represents the long term continuation of lower highs and lower lows on the chart along with a solid bounce off the 100 day moving average suggesting further downside is the order of play. The RBA left rates unchanged at 0.25% and said they were comfortable with current policy, but it was the RBNZ chief economist who let the cat out of the bag by saying they were gearing up for negative rates sooner rather than later which spooked NZD buyers. Support is seen at the 0.9140 (1.0940) level, we don’t expect the cross to break this area over the next few days.
The current interbank midrate is: NZDAUD 0.9190 AUDNZD 1.0873
The interbank range this week has been: NZDAUD 0.9179- 0.9294 AUDNZD 1.0759- 1.0894
The New Zealand Dollar (NZD), Australian Dollar (AUD) cross started the week around 0.9275 (1.0780) levels and was quick to extend late last week’s Aussie gains to 0.9240 (1.0820) into Tuesday. This marks the long-term continuation of lower highs and lower lows on the chart along with a solid bounce off the 100 day moving average suggesting further downside is the order of play. This week’s main calendar event is the RBA meeting with no expectation of a shift from 0.25% but possible speak around further stimulus and a rate cut- potentially to 0.10% looming. Recent lockdowns in the state of Victoria have changed things up with analysts expecting more action on the monetary policy front. Expected direction this week – upside for the AUD.
Current Level: 0.9244 (1.0804)
Resistance: 0.9285 (1.0850)
Support: 0.9215 (1.0770)
Last Weeks Range: 0.9217-0.9290 (1.0764-1.0849)
After a low on Wednesday of 0.9215 (pretty much on our support level) the NZD has enjoyed a better couple of days against the AUD now trading back at 0.9260. With the feeling that the RBNZ may have put negative rates on hold for the time being giving the NZD some legs, pressure will remain on the AUD as next week’s RBA meeting looms. A rate cut would knock the AUD back towards the 0.9330 level on this cross with even some strong RBA rhetoric around lower rates likely to have a negative effect on AUD values.
Over the day the 0.9230-0.9270 range should hold up until tonight’s USD jobs data , but next week , although RBA dependent, potential exists for a push to the 0.9330/60 level then major resistance at 0.9470.
The current interbank midrate is: NZDAUD 0.9261 AUDNZD 1.0790
The interbank range this week has been: NZDAUD 0.9217- 0.9324 AUDNZD 1.0725- 1.0849
The NZD/AUD cross opens around 0.9263 this morning holding at levels marginally below yesterday’s close after a high around 0.9330 last week. With little NZ data this week and the election result pretty much a forgone conclusion (Continuation of a Labour led government) focus will stay on the RBA and its meeting next week. With market consensus that the RBA is looking at another rate cut, look for volatility and more downward pressure on the AUD as we head into next week. Although further risk-off sell-offs would affect both currencies on this cross, the NZD is normally harder hit but any NZD pullback should hold around the 0.9215 level, .however we favour a move back over 0.9300 on this cross as we approach next week’s RBA meeting. Clients who have AUD to sell for NZD should look at levels to transact this business ahead of next week’s RBA meet.
Current Level: 0.9260 (1.0793)
Resistance: 0.9328 (1.0850)
Support: 0.9216 (1.0720)
Last Weeks Range: 0.9217-0.9330 (1.0717-1.0849)
The New Zealand dollar (NZD) is looking to close the week out with some mild gains against its Australian cousin, the AUD. The pair opened the week around the 0.9275 level and initially drifted lower trading to 0.9217 before staging a comeback to currently trade just under 0.9300. The AUD has underperformed the NZD this week as concerns have crept into the market about a potential RBA interest rate cut in October. It’s not a widely held view at this stage, but there are some economists call it. We’ve also seen some forecasts for iron ore to decline during the 4th quarter of this year, potentially trade down toward $80.00 by 2121. Iron ore has been one of the real positives supporting the AUD in recent months with the price trading up over $125.00 per ton in early September. If the iron ore price does continue to decline, currently it’s around $118.00, then the NZDAUD cross could easily climb back toward 0.9450. Clients looking to transfer AUD to NZD should consider current levels as still reasonably attractive.
The current interbank midrate is: NZDAUD 0.9287 AUDNZD 1.0768
The interbank range this week has been: NZDAUD 0.9217 – 0.9303 AUDNZD 1.0749 – 1.0850
Price reversed off 0.9275 (1.0780) during early Monday trading in the Australian Dollar (AUD), New Zealand Dollar (NZD) pair reaching 0.9215 (1.0850) in Tuesday sessions. We talked about the kiwi being a tad overvalued and unusually stable across major pairs and this correction confirms this. With the RBNZ monetary policy and cash rate announcement tomorrow, the weekly highlight, we expect some dovishness from governor Orr as he speculates on negative rates and extending the QE program. RBA deputy governor Debelle spoke of possible currency intervention as a policy option which in turn sent the AUD lower midday to 0.9230 (1.0835). We may see the kiwi ease lower through 0.9200 (1.0870) style levels around tomorrow’s announcements.
Current Level: 0.9237 (1.0817)
Resistance: 0.9370 (1.1000)
Support: 0.9090 (1.0670)
Last Weeks Range: 0.9166-0.9289 (1.0766-1.091)
The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) traded back to its 6 week long term resistance level at 0.9250 (1.0810) against the Australian Dollar (AUD) over the week after an array of data published causing the cross to bounce around. Reversing all its gains made the week earlier from 0.9150 (1.0930) the Aussie lost buyer support. The kiwi gained momentum post NZ second quarter releasing at -12.0% after -12.0% was widely predicted, which is strange given the NZ economy officially dropped into its second recession in a decade marking the quarterly result the worst in NZ history. Australian unemployment printed considerably lower than the 7.7% predicted at 6.8% a fantastic result bringing back buyers of AUD for a while.
The current interbank midrate is: NZDAUD 0.9252 AUDNZD 1.0802
The interbank range this week has been: NZDAUD 0.9153- 0.9256 AUDNZD 1.0803- 1.0925
The New Zealand Dollar (NZD), Australian Dollar (AUD) opened around the 0.9130 zone Monday but was sharply higher by midday to 0.9200 (1.0870) levels. It’s tough to put a reason for the kiwi mini rally except to pin it on early week wholesale large market orders. Jacinda Ardern chimed in later Monday with the eventual easing of Covid restrictions in NZ and the ability of flights to now be booked out to full capacity (with masks). The news saw a flood of fresh flight bookings – clearly great for the economy and the NZD. Two key data releases print Thursday with NZ second quarter GDP first, then Aussie jobs numbers. NZ GDP to June is expected to be anywhere from -8.0% to -17.0%, the pair will be very volatile around this time. We think direction this week in the cross to head towards 0.9100 (1.0990) levels.
Current Level: 0.9183 (1.0884)
Resistance: 0.9240 (1.0960)
Support: 0.9125 (1.0820)
Last Weeks Range: 0.9144-0.9211 (1.0857-1.0936)
We spoke about a retest of 0.9130 (1.0950) in the previous commentary and we were not far off with the New Zealand Dollar (NZD), Australian Dollar (AUD) cross reaching 0.9145 (1.0935) early Friday with the kiwi reversing most of last week’s gains from 0.9220 (1.0840) It’s been a quiet week of data with just the NAB Business confidence to reflect on with the index showing a optimism is still tender as employment, spending particularly in Victoria fell deep into a second wave of coronavirus lockdowns. Next week’s NZ second quarter GDP release followed by Aussie employment data for August will be where our attention is.
The current interbank midrate is: NZDAUD 0.9156 AUDNZD 1.0913
The interbank range this week has been: NZDAUD 0.9144- 0.9225 AUDNZD 1.0840- 1.0936
The Australian Dollar (AUD) reversed off 0.9240 (1.0820) towards the end of the week against the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) extending its support higher into early Tuesday sessions to 0.9190 (1.0880). Despite second quarter Australian GDP coming in weaker at -7.0% instead of the anticipated -6.0%, Aussie moves lower have been restricted by a dovish RBNZ as they signalled a loosening of monetary policy with talk of negative rates to come. On the calendar this week we only have NAB Business Confidence this afternoon. Expected direction this week: retest of 0.9130 (1.0950)
Current Level: 0.9193 (1.0871)
Resistance: 0.9260 (1.0950)
Support: 0.9130 (1.0800)
Last Weeks Range: 0.9124-0.9252 (1.0809-1.096)
As we commented recently the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) gained on the Australian Dollar (AUD) this week extending last week’s momentum to 0.9240 (1.0820) early Friday Sessions. The RBNZ signalled no direct concerns for the NZD being overvalued with Orr starting conversations around the prospects of negative rates later in the year early 2021. The RBA will maintain its highly accommodative policy settings for as long as needed with Lowe saying the road to recovery will be long and bumpy- especially as the virus in Victoria has had a terrible effect on the economy. Second quarter GDP confirmed a weakened economy to the end of June with figures showing a drop of 7.0% from the 6.0% expected. This puts Australia formally in recession.
The current interbank midrate is: NZDAUD 0.9223 AUDNZD 1.0837
The interbank range this week has been: NZDAUD 0.9124- 0.9252 AUDNZD 1.0808- 1.0960
The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) surprisingly gained on the Australian Dollar (AUD) last week from 0.9130 (1.0950) levels to 0.9175 (1.0900) at the close. Into Tuesday sessions the Aussie is outperforming the NZD back to 0.9125 (1.0960) as markets await this afternoon’s key RBA announcement. The RBA is not likely to ease any time in the next few couple of years with confirmation expected for the RBA to not go down the road of negative rates. However we expect the RBA to be broadly negative or have a dovish economic view of things to come. Of equal importance is the second quarter GDP data prints tomorrow in Australia which should come in around -6.0% on top of the -0.3% for the first quarter. We think the AUD could lose some value over the following few days trading.
Current Level: 0.9123 (1.0952)
Resistance: 0.9240 (1.1050)
Support: 0.9050 (1.0820)
Last Weeks Range: 0.9091-0.9176 (1.0898-1.1000)
The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) gained on the Australian Dollar (AUD) Wednesday after the cross sat around 0.9110 (1.0980) levels early in the week reaching 0.9170 (1.0905). However, the AUD has pushed back into Friday to regain early losses to 0.9140 (1.0940). Bearish channel resistance has been broken from early July offering an indication of a possible fight back from the kiwi. Next week’s RBA holds the key with the cash rate and statement announcements in focus. Lockdown restrictions get relaxed Monday to level 2 with businesses able to re-open. Perhaps this could be kiwi supportive.
The current interbank midrate is: NZDAUD 0.9137 AUDNZD 1.0934
The interbank range this week has been: NZDAUD 0.9089- 0.9175 AUDNZD 1.0899- 1.1002
Price post the weekly open continued lower for the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) against the Australian Dollar (AUD) to 0.9105 (1.0980) favouring recent channel resistance to the downside from early July. NZ Retail Sales Monday published ahead of predictions in the June quarter at -14.6% compared to -16.3% expected but make no mistake, this is a terrible result. Retailers in the coronavirus affected the second quarter have indeed struggled with forecasts outlook to be worse in the September quarter. Given the dovish RBNZ this could send the cross below 0.9000. First it must break past recent support at 0.9050. The last time the cross traded at 0.9000 (1.1110) was in August 2018. Australian construction q/q prints tomorrow with forecast of -6.5%. Anything worse than this could see the kiwi rebound.
Current Level: 0.9100 (1.0984)
Resistance: 0.9150 (1.1030)
Support: 0.9070 (1.0930)
Last Weeks Range: 0.9056-0.9151 (1.0928-1.1043)
Recent action in the Australian Dollar (AUD), New Zealand Dollar (NZD) pair has seen the Aussie regain momentum heading into the weekend as it tries to break into fresh ground. Currently around the 0.9070 (1.1020) level and eying long term support at 0.9050 (1.1043) seen earlier this week (August 2018) levels. There was no indication from Governor Lowe in the RBA Minutes to repurchase government bonds when he said he didn’t think the central bank would gain any traction from making further adjustments to policy. Fallout from the dovish RBNZ should ensure the AUD stays in favour. Support is at 0.9000 (1.1110) should hold until Monday unless NZ Retail Sales for the second quarter prints poorly.
The current interbank midrate is: NZDAUD 0.9062 AUDNZD 1.1022
The interbank range this week has been: NZDAUD 0.9055- 0.9148 AUDNZD 1.0930- 1.1043
Recent interest in the Australian Dollar (AUD) has continued into the new week outperforming the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) to 0.9090 (1.1000) levels into Tuesday trading. Last week’s dovish RBNZ and surprisingly good Aussie jobs numbers have maintained momentum firmly with the AUD, as we head into a week of slim pickings for economic data. There was no indication from Governor Lowe Friday to repurchase govt bonds when he said he didn’t think the central bank would gain any traction from making further adjustments to policy. Clearly this was seen as a positive. The bearish structure we are seeing on the chart in various timeframes is now well established below recent support at 0.9210 (1.0860). With coronavirus on the rise in NZ it’s hard to see the kiwi perking up, at least this week.
Current Level: 0.9072 (1.1022)
Resistance: 0.9190 (1.1090)
Support: 0.9015 (1.0880)
Last Weeks Range: 0.9069-0.9231 (1.0833-1.1027)
A dovish RBNZ spooked investors into selling the kiwi Wednesday against the Australian Dollar taking price to an October 2018 level of 0.9160 (1.0920) Although the RBNZ left rates unchanged at 0.25% the central bank increased its asset buying program and spoke of the possibility of taking rates into negative territory is a deteriorating covid inflicted economy warranted it. The kiwi was also sold off when Australian employment data showed a solid improvement in the July figures increasing by 114,000 from the 30,000 expected. With Covid impacting Victoria industry and spending over the last couple of weeks due to a rise in new cases we expect jobs numbers to worsen in the coming months. A retest of long-term support at 0.9100 could be on the cards if momentum in the AUD should continue. Next week’s calendar looks thin, we expect the cross to consolidate around current levels for a bit.
The current interbank midrate is: NZDAUD 0.9154 AUDNZD 1.0916
The interbank range this week has been: NZDAUD 0.9156- 0.9239 AUDNZD 1.0823- 1.0921
The Australian Dollar (AUD) has put gains on the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) for the 5th straight week reaching 0.9215 (1.0850), early June levels, Tuesday. The phycological 0.9200 (1.0870) the low of October 2018 should hold? But if the cross passes this mark for any length of time we could see the kiwi in trouble. The main focus over the week is the RBNZ cash rate and policy announcement – the central bank is under pressure to increase the bond buying programme (LSAP) from 60B to 90B with talk also around prospects of negative rates in later months. A dovish read of sorts is what we expect however. Late in the week we have Aussie job’s data with unemployment predicted to rise to 7.8% from 7.4%. Expected week direction: NZD recovery to 0.9300 (1.0750)
Current Level: 0.9214 (1.0845)
Resistance: 0.9300 (1.0870)
Support: 0.9200 (1.0750)
Last Weeks Range: 0.9196-0.9303 (1.0749-1.0874)
US Dollar (USD) weakness over the week has supported the Australian Dollar (AUD) more so than the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) with action close to recent lows at 0.9210 (1.0860) deep into Friday. The surge in commodity products including Gold has supported the Aussie. Phycological 0.9200 looks like it will hold for the while until next week’s RBNZ release. The RBNZ will be under pressure to increase its bond buying programme (LSAP) from 60B to 90B with the aim of injecting further money into the economy and lowering borrowing costs to businesses and households. Expect the RBNZ to therefore be dovish next week as the market starts to question levels around 0.9200 (1.0870) – 0.9300 (1.0750).
The current interbank midrate is: NZDAUD 0.9240 AUDNZD 1.0817
The interbank range this week has been: NZDAUD 0.9208- 0.9332 AUDNZD 1.0715- 1.0860
The New Zealand Dollar (NZD), Australian Dollar (AUD) holds a consolidating pattern in Tuesday trading around 0.9295 (1.0760) as the pair looks for directional cues. Today’s RBA should give us plenty of volatility when Governor Lowe announces the cash rate and policy statement. No change is expected from the 0.25% for some time but we are expecting a hawkish style statement. Tomorrow’s NZ unemployment figures should reflect a small rise to unemployment as the country rebounds from coronavirus well. Expected weekly direction: NZD to recover recent losses to 0.9345 (1.0700)
Current Level: 0.9291 (1.0754)
Resistance: 0.9320 (1.0880)
Support: 0.9190 (1.0730)
Last Weeks Range: 0.9259-0.9370 (1.0672-1.0800)
The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) reached an 8-week low against the Australian Dollar (AUD) Thursday of 0.9260 (1.0800) weighed down by US weakness which supported the Aussie, the NZD failed to arrive at the party. Growing concerns of new coronavirus cases in Victoria have had no detrimental effects on the AUD to date with booming mining conditions underpinning the currency. We are unlikely to see smooth sailing ahead in the Australian economy with further rises in unemployment and coronavirus stunting third quarter growth. A pullback from 0.9233 (1.0830) levels to 0.9365 (1.0680) would confirm this.
The current interbank midrate is: NZDAUD 0.9284 AUDNZD 1.0763
The interbank range this week has been: NZDAUD 0.9259- 0.9372 AUDNZD 1.0670- 1.0800
The Australian Dollar (AUD) backtracked to 0.9365 (1.0680) levels at the weekly close after being at 0.9300 (1.0750) midweek against the New Zealand Dollar (NZD). Early week trading has been AUD supportive with price pushing to 0.9340 (1.0705) into Tuesday. Despite growing coronavirus numbers in Australia, in particular Victoria, it’s largely all going swimmingly at the moment for the Aussie as the mining industry with iron ore prices continues to rise as Chinese Industrial Production booms. Australian Inflation for the second quarter is expected to show a decline of -2.0%, anything worse than this could lead the RBA to re-think policy at the next (4 August) RBA meeting. 0.9300 (1.0750) should hold this week, the triple bottom support level.
Current Level: 0.9335 (1.0704)
Resistance: 0.9390 (1.0750)
Support: 0.9300 (1.0650)
Last Weeks Range: 0.9300-0.9379 (1.0662-1.0753)
The Australian dollar (AUD) outperformed the New Zealand dollar (NZD) in the first half of this week, driving the pair to a low of 0.9300 (1.0753) on Wednesday. The RBA minutes released on Tuesday afternoon showed the central bank believes the AUD is in line with fundamentals and that they were comfortable with its current level. Continued strong iron ore prices are providing underlying support for the AUD with a very good long-term correlation between the two. With iron ore prices expected to remain supported it would be a tough call to bet against the AUD at this stage. Currently trading at 0.9345 (1.0701), we could easily see another test of the 0.9300 level in the coming days. Any break below 0.9300 (1.0753) would open the way for a test into the low 0.92’s (1.08’s). The highlight of next week’s economic calendar will be Australian inflation data set for release on Wednesday.
The current interbank midrate is: NZDAUD 0.9335 AUDNZD 1.0712
The interbank range this week has been: NZDAUD 0.9300 – 0.9385 AUDNZD 1.0655 – 1.0753
The Australian Dollar (AUD) finished the week well, reaching 1.0670 (0.9370) against the New Zealand Dollar (NZD). Into Tuesday the cross is still around this area and the bias is with the Aussie as we approach the RBA minutes this afternoon. RBA Minutes from the 7 July policy meeting are not expected to show any surprises but reflect recent rhetoric with the 3-year yield target on govt bonds maintained until full employment and inflation targets are reached. The Australian minister for resources said earlier that Australia’s mining and energy sectors were underpinning the domestic economy due to China industrials demand in the face of coronavirus. Retail Sales published tomorrow in Australia the only data of note on the docket this week. Price in the pair we think could be AUD supportive with daily support at 0.9330 (1.0715) perhaps retested.
Current Level: 0.9393 (1.0678)
Resistance: 0.9470 (1.0820)
Support: 0.9240 (1.0560)
Last Weeks Range: 0.9353-0.9432 (1.0602-1.0692)
The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) has underperformed this week against a buoyant Australian Dollar (AUD) especially in the first part half of the week when NZ politics fell apart after National Party leader Todd Muller resigned. He was replaced by Judith Collins as the new leader just 67 days out from the election. Even though coronavirus has ripped through the state of Victoria in Australia together with weaker jobs numbers printing the Aussie has remained perky. The Unemployment Rate printed slightly higher than markets were predicting at 7.4% vs 7.2% re-confirming tough times ahead for the Australian economy. Price consolidated around 0.9390 (1.0650) with the cross looking for additional directional cues. The AUD looks to target the next support zone at 0.9300 (1.0750).
The current interbank midrate is: NZDAUD 0.9367 AUDNZD 1.0663
The interbank range this week has been: NZDAUD 0.9353- 0.9460 AUDNZD 1.0570- 1.0691
The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) fell sharply Tuesday against the Australian Dollar (AUD) from 0.9460 (1.0570) to 0.9420 (1.0620) after news that the NZ National Party leader Todd Muller resigned for health reasons. Shocked national MP’s will get together tonight to mull over who the new National party leader could be. This no doubt will take a heavy toll on the party just 67 days out from the election. Victoria coronavirus is still giving grief to the state as the chief health minister said the virus may not as yet have hit its peak. Today they have 177 new cases. We see stiff resistance on the chart at 0.9500 (1.0530) and think the cross will support the Aussie into Thursday especially if jobs data for June print well.
Current Level: 0.9407 (1.0620)
Resistance: 0.9470 (1.0660)
Support: 0.9380 (1.0560)
Last Weeks Range: 0.9393-0.9471 (1.0559-1.0646)
The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) advanced this week into Friday to 0.9430 against the Australian Dollar (AUD) continuing its 3-week run from the low of 0.9300 (1.0750) late June. RBA’s Lowe maintained the current 0.25% cash rate Tuesday choosing to stick with current policy. He said although indicators have picked up over the last few weeks the worst of the global economic downturn has passed. Big call, with outlook to remain bumpy especially as they try to contain coronavirus in Victoria. A return to lockdown in Melbourne for the next 6 weeks will hurt the Victorian economy as tourism and business falters. We favour further rises in the kiwi for now, next week’s NZ CPI q/q and Aussie Unemployment Rate could shake up the pair.
The current interbank midrate is: NZDAUD 0.9433 AUDNZD 1.0593
The interbank range this week has been: NZDAUD 1.0588- 1.0661 AUDNZD 0.9379- 0.9444
The Australian Dollar (AUD) started the week on the front foot against the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) travelling from 0.9420 (1.0620) off the open to 0.9370 (1.0670) late Monday before reversing. Australian Consumer Confidence has dropped to an 8-week low contributing to losses for the Aussie with price back at 0.9410 Tuesday. We now await the RBA cash rate and monetary policy later today, no change from the 0.25% is guaranteed with the statement expected in a low key meeting, however we could see some talk around the high AUD. We think the pair could bounce around current levels for a while.
Current Level: 0.9408 (1.0623)
Resistance: 0.9450 (1.0730)
Support: 0.9320 (1.0580)
Last Weeks Range: 0.9330-0.9430 (1.0606-1.0720)
The New Zealand Dollar (NZD), Australian Dollar (AUD) has remained within recent ranges over the week- the Aussie easing to 0.9400 (1.0630) levels from 0.9345 (1.0700) as risk sentiment improved the kiwi. Australian Trade Balance came in at 8.03B compared to the 9.0B expected putting pressure on the AUD. Aussie Retail Sales came in higher than the expected 16.3% for May at 16.9% perking buyer interest back in the AUD. Towards the weekly close the cross will continue to bob around current levels through to next week’s RBA monetary statement and cash rate announcement.
The current interbank midrate is: NZDAUD 0.9406 AUDNZD 1.0621
The interbank range this week has been: NZDAUD 0.9330- 0.9430 AUDNZD 1.0605- 1.0720
A quiet week on the data front suggests the Australian Dollar (AUD), New Zealand Dollar (NZD) wont stray far from 0.9345 (1.0700). However, with recent momentum supporting the Aussie over the last two weeks and the price pushing above the 100 day moving average we could see shifts towards 0.9300 (1.0750) towards week’s end. Aussie Trade Balance figures Thursday may create some excitement but probably not. Plans to ease back restrictions in Victoria this week were canned based on a bunch of new cases. Australia got complacent and relaxed what feeble quarantine/isolation measures they had – the result is that Covid-19 is not going anywhere fast and will impact the economy for some time. Never whistle until you pass the village.
Current Level: 0.9344 (1.0693)
Resistance: 0.9380 (1.0740)
Support: 0.9310 (1.0660)
Last Weeks Range: 0.9301-0.9388 (1.0652-1.0751)
Early in the week RBA Lowe’s comments helped send the Australian Dollar (AUD) to 0.9300 (1.0755) against the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) assisted by a dovish RBNZ Wednesday. RBNZ’s Orr delivered a dovish straight bat account of forward guidance. Risks remain to the downside for the kiwi with a lot of work yet to be done to escape the jaws of coronavirus. If necessary Orr said he would expand on the govt QE package of 60B and did the opposite to the RBA by saying the economy needs a weaker NZD to support export earnings. Looking ahead we have ANZ business Confidence Tuesday and Aussie Trade Balance Thursday to keep an eye on. We think the cross will bounce around current levels deep into next week.
The current interbank midrate is: NZDAUD 0.9339 AUDNZD 1.0701
The interbank range this week has been: NZDAUD 0.9298- 0.9409 AUDNZD 1.0628- 1.0755
A quiet start to the week in the Australian Dollar (AUD), New Zealand Dollar (NZD) cross has seen action bounce around 0.9380 (1.0660). Initial moves supported the kiwi to 0.9410 (1.0630) but once RBA’s Lowe spoke yesterday the Aussie recovered. Lowe’s comments gave the Aussie a boost when he talked up economic outlook and said he preferred a lower AUD but current levels were fine. RBNZ’s Orr speaks tomorrow at the cash rate and monetary policy meeting. Markets are speculating he may give a dovish review and talk down the kiwi, to stimulate the economy. This could clearly send messages to investors to exit NZD. With coronavirus cases increasing in NZ and particularly in Victoria prospects of a “travel bubble” are pretty much dead in the water. We don’t think the NZDAUD cross is going anywhere soon from its current 0.9300 (1.0750) – 0.9400 (1.0640) band.
Current Level: 0.9357 (1.0681)
Resistance: 0.9400 (1.0720)
Support: 0.9330 (1.0640)
Last Weeks Range: 0.9322-0.9407 (1.063-1.0727)
With poor data printing on both sides of the Tasman the New Zealand Dollar (NZD), Australian Dollar (AUD) cross has been volatile this week, some would say finding its feet. Pushing higher to 0.9450 (1.0580) early in the week the kiwi failed to push on drifting back to (0.9320) 1.0730 midweek before clawing back losses to 0.9370 (1.0670) Friday. RBA minutes from the last meeting confirmed the usual rhetoric around downside risks before NZ GDP data shook up the kiwi sending it lower. First quarter GDP, released at -1.6% vs -1.0% predicted, the largest first quarter drop in 29 years as the country feels the effects of lockdown on the economy. Aussie Retail Sales for May later today could provide further direction for the pair.
The current interbank midrate is: NZDAUD 0.9367 AUDNZD 1.0678
The interbank range this week has been: NZDAUD 0.9321- 0.9450 AUDNZD 1.0582- 1.0728
With China having issues with coronavirus, second wave cases in Beijing I would think the recent bullish run in the Australian Dollar (AUD) may have a limited shelf life. The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) sank to 0.9340 (1.0710) after being at 0.9450 (1.0580) in early Monday trading but anything towards 0.9320 (1.0730) looks oversold. The Aussie unemployment rate is forecast to jump to 7.0% from 6.2% in Thursday’s announcement prior to Retail Sales for May. Event risk for the Aussie looks to send the kiwi higher in the coming days.
Current Level: 0.9333 (1.0706)
Resistance: 0.9505 (1.0820)
Support: 0.9240 (1.0520)
Last Weeks Range: 0.9322-0.9450 (1.0582-1.0727)
The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) waivered mid-week dropping back to 0.9320 (1.0730) against the Australian Dollar (AUD) but has regained its losses into Friday trading back to 0.9400 (1.0635). Both ANZ Business Confidence figures and NAB Business Confidence printed slightly better than predicted. Aussie NAB figures highlight an improvement in activity with confidence levels a little more positive in May. We are still far above the long run average of similar depths seen during the GFC in 2008 as we start to see slow economic improvements. Resistance is the daily close at 0.9420 (1.0620), a break above here and we could see further upside bias to 0.9505 (1.0520)
The current interbank midrate is: NZDAUD 0.9397 AUDNZD 1.0632
The interbank range this week has been: NZDAUD 0.9321- 0.9408 AUDNZD 1.0629- 1.0728
The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) continues to make advances into Tuesday against the Australian Dollar (AUD) reversing all of last week’s losses trading back at 0.9355 (1.0690). The Aussie has made decent gains over other crosses over the past few days but with no coronavirus cases reported now in NZ – the kiwi has been favoured. NZ Business Confidence improved 9 points to -33% with firms less negative over the future outlook of the NZ economy. The Chinese Ministry of Culture and Tourism have issued a warning against travel to Australia citing a significant increase in racist attacks on Chinese and Asian people. This headline is significant and could filter into downward pressure on the AUD. We are forecasting a return to 0.9500 (1.0520).
Current Level: 0.9346 (1.0687)
Resistance: 0.9370 (1.0830)
Support: 0.9235 (1.0670)
Last Weeks Range: 0.9192-0.9363 (1.068-1.0879)
The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) continues to drag its feet over the preferred Australian Dollar (AUD) to 0.9200 (1.0870) Wednesday. The current level represents resistance from the early March low. The RBA’s Lowe confirmed current policy yesterday and vowed to upscale its bond purchases to do whatever the economy needs to remain functional. Australian Current Account published at 8.4B surplus, much higher than the 6.3B expected based on the inability to trade internationally because of coronavirus causes, this gave the news pushed the AUD higher. Aussie GDP releases later today and is expected to come in at -0.4% for the first quarter (ending March) which could have a negative impact on the AUD.
Current Level: 0.9215 (1.0844)
Resistance: 0.9330 (1.0880)
Support: 0.9190 (1.0720)
Last Weeks Range: 0.9192-0.9376 (1.0665-1.0879)
The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) extended last week’s recovery against the Australian Dollar (AUD) to 0.9365 (1.0680) Friday after reversing off 0.9235 (1.0830). Media attention around China being upset with Australia’s investigation into coronavirus is heating up with China saying the relationship could be damaged beyond repair and will continue to pressure the AUD. Next week’s Aussie Current Account along with the RBA cash rate and statement will hold attention as NZ takes Monday off for Queen’s Birthday. We don’t expect the price to travel back to the earlier lows in the near term.
The current interbank midrate is: NZDAUD 0.9336 AUDNZD 1.0701
The interbank range this week has been: NZDAUD 0.9310- 0.9385 AUDNZD 1.0655- 1.0740
The NZD/AUD cross continues to hold within the 0.9372-0.9325 range over the last week and looks to be consolidating around the low 0.9300’s region. We favour the NZD on this cross, as trade tensions between Australia and China continue to ramp-up , the NZD is not immune from any major AUD fallout but should hold ground on the cross if AUD offshore selling emerges.
Current Level: 0.9322 (1.0719)
Resistance: 0.9389 (1.0830)
Support: 0.9233 (1.0650)
Last Weeks Range: 0.9236-0.9373 (1.0668-1.0827)
The Australian Dollar (AUD) broke fresh levels through prior support at 0.9340 (1.0710) against the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) Wednesday on its way to 0.9233 (1.0830) topping out at the September 2019 low before falling back into Friday to 0.9330 (1.0720). The RBA minutes confirmed the central bank was prepared to beef up Govt Bond purchases if necessary but the current package was broadly feeding into the economy well. The NZ National party has elected a new leader with news just out that Todd Miller has overpowered Simon Bridges for the race for leadership. Muller’s preference for a deputy is Nikki Kaye. Punters recently have preferred the Aussie with risk sentiment high, but with China and US tensions back making headlines we could see Aussie weakness develop.
The current interbank midrate is: NZDAUD 0.9317 AUDNZD 1.0724
The interbank range this week has been: NZDAUD 1.0701- 1.0829 AUDNZD 0.9234- 0.9344
The Australian Dollar (AUD) stretched its legs in another wave of defiance last week against the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) to fresh lows around 0.9240 (1.0835). This week into Tuesday sessions price has consolidated somewhat around this low as markets await the RBA minutes later today. It’s not as if the kiwi has been underperforming lately, on the contrary, the NZD has also seen decent bouts of bullishness against other pairs. Oddly enough investors have preferred the Aussie going back to the mid-March highs close to parity. As Trade tensions heat up and Chinese business could see closures again on second wave coronavirus fears we are picking a heavy reversal and could see the pair take a look at 0.9520 (1.0500) levels in the coming weeks.
Current Level: 0.9545 (1.0816)
Resistance: 0.9300 (1.0860)
Support: 0.9210 (1.0750)
Last Weeks Range: 0.9234-0.9420 (1.0616-1.0829)
Wednesday’s RBNZ announcement took the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) off 0.9390 (1.0650) to 0.9275 (1.0780) Wednesday after a dovish read from Governor Adrian Orr shocked markets by saying he was not ruling out negative rates later in the year. The cash rate remains at 0.25% with an additional 30B QE added to the Asset Purchase programme. Surprisingly poor Aussie jobs numbers seemed ignored by punters when Australia released its biggest monthly Jobs decline on record of 595K for April. The number was fairly expected however falls in the AUD were perhaps mitigated by the unemployment rate not rising as forecast (6.2% v 8.3%). With price around 0.9295 (1.0760) Friday morning making fresh lows- it has to be said we feel the AUD is wildly overvalued.
The current interbank midrate is: NZDAUD 0.9291 AUDNZD 1.0763
The interbank range this week has been: NZDAUD 0.9278- 0.9421 AUDNZD 1.0614- 1.0778
With strong links to the Chinese economy the Australian Dollar (AUD) continues to bounce off dips against the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) and outperform. Price into Tuesday retreated off the high of 0.9415 (1.0620) to 0.9365 (1.0680) and looks to retest last week’s low of 0.9345 (1.0700) as we head into a busy week for both currencies. The RBNZ cash rate will be announced tomorrow and will remain at 0.25% with comments by Orr to be centered around adding additional stimulus to the NZ economy by expanding our QE program. Looking to Thursday we will get a look at how the Australian is tracking amid coronavirus when key employment figures release. Expectations are that a jump of 550,000 people will be added to the unemployment cue in April – up from 5.2% in March. We have been talking up a reversal of this cross but it’s yet to happen, last week’s 0.9300 (1.0750) is in jeopardy.
Current Level: 0.9402 (1.0629)
Resistance: 0.9450 (1.0740)
Support: 0.9310 (1.0580)
Last Weeks Range: 0.9348-0.9430 (1.0605-1.0698)
Risk on markets has supported the Australian Dollar (AUD) this week more so than the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) with price returning to 0.9345 (1.0700) Friday from midweek’s high of 0.9460 (1.0570). Chinese Trade data surprised markets offsetting the earlier Aussie bearish mood turning heads and giving momentum back to the AUD. Earlier in the week the RBA left the cash rate at 0.25% at its policy meeting with the board saying they won’t increase the cash rate until full employment is reached and they can be confident inflation can be sustained within the 2-3% band. The successful containment of coronavirus and strong policy support should see both the AUD and kiwi in favourable positions on a global front. As improving Chinese data comes in we could see the AUD outperform the NZD for a while. Massive support at 0.9305 (1.0750) holds a significant level, getting past here is like entering a wormhole to another dimension.
The current interbank midrate is: NZDAUD 0.9380 AUDNZD 1.0660
The interbank range this week has been: NZDAUD 0.9347- 0.9460 AUDNZD 1.0570- 1.0698
The big come back story of the Australian Dollar (AUD) of late hit a roadblock mid last week against the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) with the cross coming off a low of 0.9300 (1.0750) to head into the weekly close around 0.9435 (1.0600). The kiwi looks stable heading into Tuesday with predictions we may be seeing a reversal in the kiwi and a solid base in the pair forming. On its way higher the kiwi may be met with resistance at 0.9505 (1.0520). Certainly, today’s RBA rate decision could be key followed by tomorrow’s NZ unemployment rate read. With Standard and Poor’s rating agency reaffirming NZ’s long term foreign currency debt at AA this could support the kiwi for a while longer. Price is pivoting around the 20-day moving average- if we see a break to 0.9480 (1.0550) we may see the kiwi strengthen further.
Current Level: 0.9408 (1.0619)
Resistance: 0.9460 (1.0750)
Support: 0.9300 (1.0570)
Last Weeks Range: 0.9301-0.9460 (1.0571-1.0751)
The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) reached 0.9300 (1.0750) overnight against the Australian Dollar (AUD) after pushing past last week’s low of 0.9400 (1.0640) into new territory. We feel the Aussie is well overbought as do other market analysts suggesting we could see a reversal develop. Technical drivers point to anything pre 0.9240 (1.0820) as extreme levels dating back to September 2018. Australian coronavirus is key to any improvement as Morrison relaxes restrictions, he has launched mobile software to assist with virus monitoring amid concerns of privacy breaches. He said it was not compulsory for people to download the app; he flagged it as necessary to relax current restrictions further. Downside bias in the cross we think is limited to 0.9300 with the kiwi expected to appreciate over the coming days/weeks.
Current Level: 0.9341 (1.0693)
Resistance: 0.9500 (1.0820)
Support: 0.9240 (1.0530)
Last Weeks Range: 0.9398-0.9546 (1.0475-1.0640)
All indicators in the Australian Dollar (AUD), New Zealand Dollar (NZD) pair suggest a bounce off the recent low of 0.9400 (1.0640). But, although we have seen moderate weakness in the Aussie through the middle stages of this week it’s returned to form into Friday with price back at 0.9415 (1.0620), to a late November 2019 low. Coronavirus numbers on both sides of the Tasman have been fantastic of late as both countries go head to head with who can come out better off health and economically. The strength in the Aussie may be cut short as the near-term drivers suggest 0.9352 (1.0655) offers huge support.
The current interbank midrate is: NZDAUD 0.9420 AUDNZD 1.0607
The interbank range this week has been: NZDAUD 0.9398- 0.9542 AUDNZD 1.0479- 1.0640
As we commented earlier, as soon as we had a lockdown change we would see improvements in the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) develop against the Australian Dollar (AUD). The kiwi has come off its recent low of 0.9420 (1.0620) bouncing higher to trade around the 0.9530 (1.0490) Tuesday as restrictions over lockdown 4 will be relaxed to lockdown level 3 on the 27th of April were announced Monday. Breaking above 0.9506 (1.0520) channel resistance we may be seeing a trend change developing. NZ and Australia are still considering a post lockdown “trans-Tasman bubble” if infections in both countries continue to decrease to manageable levels. NZ recorded 9 new infections Monday along with Australia’s 13 with both economies poised to reopen when govt’s allow. A retest of last week’s open at 0.9600 (1.0420) is on the cards.
Current Level: 0.9522 (1.0490)
Resistance: 0.9660 (1.0630)
Support: 0.9410 (1.0350)
Last Weeks Range: 0.9413-0.9547 (1.0475-1.0624)
The parity high we saw 4 weeks ago is a distant memory in the rear-view mirror with the Australian Dollar (AUD) pushing back hard. The cross pushed through prior 2020 support at 0.9495 (1.0530) to 0.9480 (1.0550) posting a late November 2019 low. Despite NAB business confidence coming in at the worst figure on record in 47 years (-66) versus (-2) in February the AUD continues to build momentum. Coronavirus numbers in both countries have been on the slide with new cases trending lower in the past few days. I suspect its Australia’s lockdown strategy creating bullish momentum in the Aussie with less economic pain being experienced. Nearing the end of the NZ lockdown with less than a week to run in “level 4” we should see elevated buying of the NZD. We expect the kiwi to bounce back to 0.9690 (1.0320) in the coming sessions.
The current interbank midrate is: NZDAUD 0.9460 AUDNZD 1.0566
The interbank range this week has been: NZDAUD 0.9462- 0.9722 AUDNZD 1.0286- 1.0569
With coronavirus numbers plateauing in Australia the Australian Dollar (AUD) has been rather perky in the last 24 hours against the New Zealand Dollar (NZD), the pair trading to 0.9720 (1.0290) at Tuesday lunch off the 0.9775 (1.0230) open. New Zealand Treasury announced the syndicated tap of the 1.5% coupon 15 May 2031 nominal Bond. The Treasury expects to sell at least 2.0Billion of the 15 May 2031 bond. The Bond has been well received by offshore investors and should hold the kiwi favourably going forward. Back to coronavirus- Australia has around 96 people in intensive care and they have done an enormous amount of testing-perhaps more per capita than any other country. BUT- they are still largely in partial lockdown, how have they managed to contain the virus to around 5,900 cases, I’m baffled, especially when NZ is in a full lockdown? The RBA will announce their cash rate and monetary policy today at 2.30 Sydney time with no expectation of a change from the 0.25%. However tweaks are expected to the current policy. We are picking prices to drift back to 0.9800 (1.0205) levels.
Current Level: 0.9725 (1.0270)
Resistance: 0.9805 (1.0350)
Support: 0.9660 (1.0200)
Last Weeks Range: 0.9663-0.9799 (1.0205-1.0349)
The Australian Dollar (AUD) extended last week’s support trading to 0.9660 (1.0350) but quickly ran into seller interest. The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) recouped losses into Friday morning NY close to 0.9800 (1.0200). Our view from Tuesday’s commentary based on the retracement back to 0.9880 is nearly complete, we hold strong on further support for the kiwi heading into the close. The coronavirus weighed heavily in Australian service sectors for March with numbers showing a slump in business activity with a deep downturn in sales stemming from falls in overseas business, meanwhile business confidence surveys hit a record low. The lockdowns in both Australia and New Zealand and the effectiveness of measures to get on top of the virus will have an impact economically flowing through into the NZDAUD in the coming months.
The current interbank midrate is: NZDAUD 0.9758 AUDNZD 1.0234
The interbank range this week has been: NZDAUD 0.9660- 0.9824 AUDNZD 1.0179- 1.0351
Markets turned risk on early morning Friday as equity indices closed 5% higher overnight. The Australian Dollar (AUD) picked up a little support against the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) off 0.9880 (1.0120) to 0.9830 (1.0170). Coronavirus cases in Australia have passed 3,000 while in NZ we have 89 new cases Friday and a total of 300 cases. I don’t believe they have got on top of things in Australia with fatalities in 4 states. We have seen a double bounce off resistance at 0.9850 (1.0150) with bears guarding this area, expect price to retrace early week gains in the Aussie to 0.9730 (1.0280)
The current interbank midrate is: NZDAUD 0.9830 AUDNZD 1.0165
The interbank range this week has been: NZDAUD 0.9711- 0.9883 AUDNZD 1.0118- 1.0297
RBA and RBNZ stimulus plans have sent the Australian Dollar (AUD), New Zealand Dollar (NZD) to all corners this week. Both Australian and NZ borders have been closed (Australia today at 9pm) which brought back a flood of buyer interest in both currencies with the announcements practically at the same time causing massive volatility spikes. Pivoting from the pair’s happy place around the 0.9900 (1.0100) level the range over the last 24 hours has been around 0.9815 (1.0188) to 0.9965 (1.0035). NZ fourth quarter GDP printed at 0.5% along with a drop in Aussie unemployment to 5.1% from 5.3% for February – both were relatively overlooked results with focus on Covid-19 driving price. We think the cross should stay around current ranges for a while, with reasonable chances we see a return to parity.
The current interbank midrate is: NZDAUD 0.9893 AUDNZD 1.0096
The interbank range this week has been: NZDAUD 0.9701- 1.0006 AUDNZD 0.9994- 1.0308
The Australian Dollar (AUD) came off the weekly open in charge against the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) reaching 0.9700 (1.0308) from 0.9815 (1.0190) but was stopped in its tracks by a surprise RBNZ announcement early Monday. The RBNZ cut rates to a historic 0.25% from 1.0%. The NZ government is under pressure to react from the economic fallout from Covid-19 as it spreads. Orr explained that the new rate would stay in place for the next 12 months. The RBA cut rates early March to 0.50% but this now won’t be enough with expectations over the coming days the RBA will cut further to 0.25% in line with other central banks. The NZD surged to 0.9978 (1.0022) last night before returning to 0.9903 (1.0098). It’s possible the pair may test parity over the coming days.
Current Level:0.9895 (1.0094)
Last Weeks Range: 0.9590-0.9978 (1.0022-1.0428)
The Australian Dollar (AUD) underperformed this week against the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) sliding to 1.0215 (0.9789) Friday a whopping 2.0%. Once it slipped below 1.0380 (0.9633) support the bearish decline couldn’t be stemmed. Governor Orr saying he sees no need to use alternative monetary policy instruments and the current policy is sound. That is not to say we won’t see an emergency meeting over the next few days as coronavirus worsens in NZ. So far so good. The Aussie should claw back losses in the coming days with the cross returning to 0.9700 (1.0310) levels.
The current interbank midrate is: NZDAUD 0.9750 AUDNZD 1.0245
The interbank range this week has been: NZDAUD 0.9521- 0.9794 AUDNZD 1.0210- 1.0502
Choppy action in the New Zealand Dollar (NZD), Australian Dollar (AUD) pair continued into Tuesday with price all over the park Monday after markets around the world suffered a mini crash. A massive range between 0.9505 (1.0520) and 0.9645 (1.0370) over one hour of trading yesterday afternoon made for incredible volatility shifts and tough times for traders. Overnight price drifted towards 0.9660 (1.0350) levels supporting the kiwi. After massive falls yesterday over 6% in the ASX the index has again shed a further 4% or around 66B in value during today’s trading. The NZX is not fearing any better dropping over 4% in today’s trading. RBNZ’s Ore is due to talk at 2pm today on unconventional monetary policy and should hopefully give further directional cues. Certainly price fluctuations should continue in choppy times around current levels for some time yet. Buyers of AUD are still enjoying good buying levels, a luxury EUR, USD and GBP buyers don’t have.
Current Level: 0.9610 (1.0396)
Resistance: 0.9645 (1.0520)
Support: 0.9505 (1.0370)
Last Weeks Range: 0.9496-0.9684 (1.0326-1.0531)
Choppy action in the New Zealand Dollar (NZD), Australian Dollar (AUD) pair saw price move initially to 0.9615 (1.0400) levels then to 0.9500 (1.0530) as markets responded to the RBA rate cut buying back the Aussie. The RBA cut rates Tuesday to 0.75% from 1.25% as widely expected to support a weakening economy as it responds to the coronavirus outbreak. The RBA says they are prepared to ease further if necessary if coronavirus continues to cloud growth forecasts. Usually post a rate cut by any central bank weakens the currency based on yield rate differences, but surprisingly the Aussie rallied over a cent post release through to Thursday. Friday’s price is back at 0.9510 (1.0480) as we wait for Australian Retail figures this afternoon.
The current interbank midrate is: NZDAUD 0.9538 AUDNZD 1.0476
The interbank range this week has been: NZDAUD 0.9495- 0.9607 AUDNZD 1.0408- 1.0531
Improvements during early week trading took the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) to 0.9630 (1.0385) against the Australian Dollar (AUD) on weaker Aussie data. Construction work done came in for the fourth quarter 2019 a disappointing -3.0% from the -1.0% expected and overall for the 2019 year down- overall 7.4%. This was followed by capex at -2.8% for the fourth quarter based on predictions of 0.5% growth. NZ ANZ Business Confidence missed its mark also releasing softer data Thursday stemming a return of favour for the AUD with price returning to 0.9590 (1.0430) midday Friday. Looking ahead we have the RBA Cash rate and policy statement next week with expectations that they will hold off a little longer before dropping rates as they watch how economic factors play out such as the recent jump in unemployment and importantly coronavirus. We think recent ranges will remain intact for a while longer.
The current interbank midrate is: NZDAUD 0.9603 AUDNZD 1.0406
The interbank range this week has been: NZDAUD 0.9533- 0.9630 AUDNZD 1.0384- 1.0489
The Australian Dollar (AUD), New Zealand Dollar (NZD) pair continues to knock about around the 0.9600 (1.0420) area with a slight improvement for the kiwi into Tuesday off the Monday open from 0.9590 (1.0430). Both the kiwi and Aussie economies will continue to be vulnerable to risk off coronavirus headline disruptions, but we don’t expect the price to shift much from recent ranges in the near term. We have NZ – ANZ Business Confidence and Aussie Private Capital Expenditure to come this week for directional cues.
Current Level: 0.9589 (1.0419)
Resistance: 0.9615 (1.0470)
Support: 0.9550 (1.0400)
Last Weeks Range: 0.9543-0.9609 (1.0407-1.0479)
Choppy movement this week in the Australian Dollar (AUD), New Zealand Dollar (NZD) has seen price trade between 0.9540 (1.0480) and 0.9602 (1.0414) with no real direction. RBA minutes confirmed recent speak of lower rates to achieve inflation targets and full employment and reviewing the case for further interest cuts at a later date. The Australian Employment rate went higher to 5.3% from 5.2% remaining relatively steady but markets saw it another way, weakening the Aussie post release. Next week’s NZ Retails Sales and Business Confidence should offer more momentum ques.
The current interbank midrate is: NZDAUD 0.9568 AUDNZD 1.0442
The interbank range this week has been: NZDAUD 1.0414- 1.0479 AUDNZD 0.9542- 0.9602
The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) slumped off the weekly open tracking to 0.9555 (1.0465) against the Australian Dollar (AUD) but rebounded back to 0.9600 (1.0420) during early Tuesday trading sessions. This afternoon’s RBA minutes from the 4th February policy meeting hold immediate attention in the pair but we don’t expect any surprises and any major shifts to price. Australian Wage data Wednesday before Employment data Thursday are the main events on the calendar this week. Recent activity in the cross suggests a return to the recent top of the band at 0.9690 (1.0320) a continuation of the AUD decline from last November
Current Level: 0.9590 (1.0424)
Resistance: 0.9615 (1.0500)
Support: 0.9520 (1.0400)
Last Weeks Range: 0.9519-0.9618 (1.0397-1.0505)
Price momentum from last week continued for the Australian Dollar (AUD) to 0.9460 (1.0570) against the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) early in the week through to the RBNZ announcement Wednesday. The RBNZ left rates unchanged at 1.0% which was no surprise, but Ore’s statement surprised after he confirmed there would be no further cuts planned for 2020. Growth is expected to improve in the second half of the year and inflation is around target levels of 2.0%. The kiwi surged recovering most of last week’s losses back to 0.9615 (1.0400) post the statement. RBA’s governor Lowe was on the wires saying coronavirus was having an uncertain impact on the Australian economy but overall the outlook was improving. These words along with China’s stimulus plan pushed the AUD back to 0.9590 (1.0430). We favour price returning to 0.9710 (1.0300) with an improved RBNZ policy stance.
The current interbank midrate is: NZDAUD 0.9580 AUDNZD 1.0430
The interbank range this week has been: NZDAUD 1.0397- 1.0505 AUDNZD 0.9519- 0.9618
The Australian Dollar (AUD) closed at 0.9550 (1.0470) Monday, the lowest daily close against the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) since 10 December 2019 reaching 0.9545 (1.0475) into Tuesday. The RBA said they would ease policy from the 0.75% if they needed to through 2020 with rates looking to remain low for a long period. The RBNZ official cash rate is announced tomorrow with expectations of no change from the 1.0% with RBNZ’s Ore likely to speak of the impact of the coronavirus and the knock-on effect its making on Chinese growth to NZ growth forecasts. We could see a spike in the kiwi post RBNZ release just on a remain, with a retrace back under 0.9600 (1.0420) predicted.
Current Level: 0.9532 (1.0483)
Resistance: 0.9615 (1.0530)
Support: 0.9500 (1.0400)
Last Weeks Range: 0.9547-0.9670 (1.0341-1.0474)
Range bound action in the Australian Dollar (AUD), New Zealand Dollar (NZD) pair saw little movement last week into Tuesday with price around 0.9650. The Aussie has had a slight edge over the kiwi over the last 7 days after recovering losses from 0.9710 (1.0300). We await today’s RBA cash rate announcement and policy statement with no change to the 0.75% reasonably priced into the cross. We don’t expect much change from current policy but Lowe could speak about concerns around the coronavirus and the flow on effect from China’s worsening economic situation spilling over into Australia’s growth projections. NZ employment data promises to add volatility along with Aussie Trade Balance and Retail Sales Thursday. Buyers of AUD with price above 0.9600 should consider.
Current Level: 0.649 (1.0359)
Resistance: 0.9700 (1.0440)
Support: 0.9580 (1.0310)
Last Weeks Range: 0.9641-0.9702 (1.0307-1.0372)
After posting a high this week of 0.9710 (1.0300) the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) tracked weaker against the Australian Dollar (AUD) through the week down to 0.9660 (1.0350) Friday lunch. With just Aussie CPI releasing slightly above expectation at 0.7% this gave the AUD a boost Wednesday reversing early week, and prior week losses. We have not seen the pair trade outside the thin 130 point band this year. Coronavirus occupies most of the global headlines but hasn’t really played a part yet in this pair’s direction. With the virus expected to affect Chinese growth in the first quarter 2020 from fourth quarter 6.0% to 4.5%, this could have a direct flow on effect spilling into the Australian economy. Next week’s RBA and following NZ employment holds focus.
The current interbank midrate is: NZDAUD 0.9656 AUDNZD 1.0351
The interbank range this week has been: NZDAUD 0.9644- 0.9702 AUDNZD 1.0307- 1.0369
The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) pushed higher off the open post Friday’s positive NZ CPI print reaching 0.9703 (1.0308) against the Australian Dollar (AUD) before easing back to 0.9665 (1.0345). Sitting perilously close to the long term daily close at 0.9710 (1.0300), a close above here could represent further troubles for the Aussie. The last daily close higher was September 2016. The data focus this week lies with fourth quarter Australian CPI with expectations of a rise of 0.6% – bushfires will have an impact on increased prices associated with a lack of supply and problems with distribution in some product sectors such as fruit and veg. Fantastic time to buy AUD – don’t wait for higher prices when over 0.9600 (1.0420) represents historically great buying.
Current Level: 0.9661 (1.0343)
Resistance: 0.9710 (1.0430)
Support: 0.9590 (1.0300)
Last Weeks Range: 0.9588-0.9702 (1.0307-1.0430)
The Australian Dollar (AUD), New Zealand Dollar (NZD) stayed around recent range bound prices at 0.9615 (1.0400) early in the week as we waited for Aussie jobs figures. Australian Job data surprised to the upside Thursday after the official Unemployment Rate edged down to 5.1% from 5.2% and the participation number for December rose by 28,900 based on consensus of 12,000. This lifted the Aussie to 0.9590 (1.0430) where it held for several hours before positive NZ fourth quarter CPI unwound Aussie gains as the cross travelled back to 0.9670 (1.0340) Friday. This will reinforce recent uncertainty from the RBNZ to cut rates on February 12, as we see the likelihood of any further cuts on the back burner. With price remaining in a band between 0.9580 (1.0440) and 0.9700 (1.0309) we could see a retracement back to 0.9580 (1.0440) in the near term.
The current interbank midrate is: NZDAUD 0.9658 AUDNZD 1.0343
The interbank range this week has been: NZDAUD 0.9588- 0.9675 AUDNZD 1.0335- 1.0430
The New Zealand Dollar (NZD), Australian Dollar (AUD) cross has set up camp around 0.9615 (1.0400) over the last few days after a brief burst to 0.9640 (1.0370) mid last week. We need a close below 0.9540 (1.0480) to break the long-term trend higher from Novembers 0.9210 (1.0860) bottom. Two key releases this week for the cross could add volatility- first Aussie jobs numbers followed by NZ quarterly CPI. Both are expected to print well, but we do see chances of a possibility the 11,200 new jobs for December 2019 could miss its mark. With the terrible Australian fires yet to fully affect the AUD we see price back above 0.9700 (1.0310) soon
Current Level: 0.9606 (1.0406)
Resistance: 0.9645 (1.0450)
Support: 0.9570 (1.0370)
Last Weeks Range: 0.9561-0.9640 (1.0373-1.0458)
The Australian Dollar (AUD) positive mood continued as the currency extends last week’s bull run from 0.9690 (1.0320) to 0.9570 (1.0450) midweek against the New Zealand Dollar (NZD). Support around 0.9570 (1.0450) however held as the kiwi recouped losses to 0.9635 (1.0380). The feel good, from last weeks slew of positive Australian data seems to have ended as Iron Ore depreciates and the Aussie considers fresh talk of rate cuts. Next week’s Australian Jobs data will be key along with govt assistance required from the economic fallout from the bush fires should see the NZD regain momentum leading up to the RBA’s next meeting. We expect the daily high of 0.9685 (1.0325) to be tested in the coming days
The current interbank midrate is: NZDAUD 0.9621 AUDNZD 1.0387
The interbank range this week has been: NZDAUD 0.9562- 0.9632 AUDNZD 1.0382- 1.0458
Last week’s positive Australian data continues to support momentum in the AUD against the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) with price reversing off 0.9695 (1.0314) travelling to 0.9606 (1.0410) into Tuesday. Building Approvals, Trade Balance and Retail Sales all printed up on expectation last week and should continue to push price lower into the 0.95’s especially with a lack of data to print this week driving direction either way. With the imminent signing of the phase one trade deal, this has buoyed the China reliant Australian economy as well- Iron Ore and coal trade higher. We expect the price to drift lower over the week.
Current Level: 0.9593 (1.0413)
Resistance: 0.9625 (1.0430)
Support: 0.9590 (1.0390)
Last Weeks Range: 0.9594-0.9695 (1.0315-1.0423)
Stats from last year’s trading in the New Zealand Dollar, Australian Dollar (NZD/AUD), pair which may be of interest…2019 open 0.9475, close 0.9590, high 0.9744, low 0.9203. The fact this cross never travelled below 0.9200 at all in 2019 is quite remarkable and has never happened before in prior years. The Aussie has had a poor time in 2020 with bush fires impacting economics and the dollar with the RBA reporting they could need to drop the cash rate at the next RBA meeting on 4 February. Trading into Thursday around the 0.9680 (1.0330) area the Aussie continues to underperform. Even with a stellar Building Approval reading for November the AUD continues to lose ground across the board. Looking ahead we have Trade balance later today followed by Retail Sales on Friday to digest. Around current levels, this is the highest daily close in the cross since late March 2019.
The current interbank midrate is: NZDAUD 0.9674 AUDNZD 1.0326
The interbank range this week has been: NZDAUD 0.9578- 0.9696 AUDNZD 1.0313- 1.0440
The NZD has outperformed on this cross with better NZ economic data and expectations of an RBA rate cut early next year after RBA minutes showed a more dovish tone. Aussie unemployment data out tomorrow always has the power to surprise being a notoriously volatile figure. Currently around 0.9590 this cross has seen a high of 0.9615 over the last week, but with risk sentiment now on the backfoot more risk on the downside for the AUD on this cross should stay relatively static at current levels until tomorrow’s labour data, but if a shocker look for a test back at 0.9620 low is unlikely to be threatened in the near term.
The current interbank midrate is: NZDAUD 0.9580 AUDNZD 1.0433
The interbank range this week has been: NZDAUD 0.9575- 0.9615 AUDNZD 1.0400- 10443
The AUD has bounced back on this cross with the NZD/AUD now around 0.9550 (1.0470) after US/China trade headlines reignited market sentiment on risk currencies.There is little domestic data going into the weekend so we expect trading around the current level to be maintained into the weekend with focus next week on this cross centering on the Australian unemployment stats later next week.
The current interbank midrate is: NZDAUD 0.9549 AUDNZD 1.0463
The interbank range this week has been: NZDAUD 0.9535- 0.9627 AUDNZD 1.0387- 1.0487
The NZD continues to outperform its AUD partner, currently sitting around the 0.9590 (1.0430) mark as the Aussie suffers from a round of weak local data while subdued progress on the trade front offers little support. Odds-on for another rate cut early in the New Year by the RBA will continue to sap any AUD strength on his cross and any fallout on the Sino/US trade talks will most likely impact the AUD more heavily than the NZD on this cross. The better NZ fundamentals could see the NZD push over the 0.9600 (1.0420) level with first resistance at the 0.9615 (1.0400) mark later in the week.
Current Level: 0.9588 (1.0426)
Resistance: 0.9610 (1.0500)
Support: 0.9520 (1.0405)
Last Weeks Range: 0.9502-0.9613 (1.0402-1.0523)
The New Zealand dollar (NZD) has proved unstoppable this week extending recent week’s incline against the struggling Australian Dollar (AUD) to 0.9595 (1.0420). The RBA left their cash rate unchanged at 0.75% as expected with Lowe saying the outlook for the global economy although still tilted to the downside remains stable. Markets foresee another possible cut of 25 basis points in February pending how data publishes. Aussie data has been largely poor this week with quarterly GDP coming in at 0.4% from the 0.5% expected and Retail Sales at 0.0% from 0.3% doing most of the damage sinking the Aussie Thursday. We have no further data this week and should see the cross remain around current levels of 0.9580 into next week. Buyers of AUD should fill your boots, the AUD will rebound.
The current interbank midrate is: NZDAUD 0.9571 AUDNZD 1.0437
The interbank range this week has been: NZDAUD 0.9503- 0.9593 AUDNZD 1.0424- 1.052
The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) marched forward Monday to a fresh 13 August high of 0.9550 (1.0470) against the Australian Dollar (AUD) as support for the kiwi went up a notch. Aussie Building Approvals were poor yesterday and a new NZ Labour Govt cash incentive to school property bought new buyers of NZD to the table. Markets now await today’s RBA Cash rate and statement later today with no expectation of a change from 0.75%. Comments on future policy could create some volatility. Australian Retail Sales and quarterly GDP should also liven up the cross into the weekend. A daily close through 0.9560 (1.0460) could spell further upside for the kiwi.
Current Level: 0.9527 (1.0484)
Resistance: 0.9550 (1.0600)
Support: 0.9435 (1.0470)
Last Weeks Range: 0.9445-0.9548 (1.0473-1.0588)
The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) marched on to reach a high of 0.9500 this week against the Australian Dollar (AUD) as support for the kiwi continues. This is the third week straight the kiwi has outperformed the Aussie Dollar with mixed Australian data results over the week having not helped. Private Capital Expenditure fell by 0.6% in the September quarter following a decline of 0.8% in the second quarter highlighting a weakened business sector. Momentum should continue into next week for the NZD but in thinned out market conditions via US Thanksgiving holiday. Next week’s RBA cash rate announcement will be the key release, also of note Aussie Building approvals, quarterly GDP and Retail Sales should make for an interesting week. We suggest prices over 0.9420 provide extremely good buying of AUD. Consideration of the volatility around next week’s risk events should be considered.
The current interbank midrate is: NZDAUD 0.9487 AUDNZD 1.0534
The interbank range this week has been: NZDAUD 0.9439- 0.9502 AUDNZD 1.0524- 1.0594
The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) has posted more gains against the Australian Dollar (AUD) this week reaching a fresh high of 0.9468 (1.0560). This morning’s NZ Retail Sales release printed better than expected for the third quarter suggesting the NZ economy could be rebounding rather than worsening – helping to extend the 27 August high. Both central banks speak over the next 24 hours and could give us further directional cues. Failing this, Aussie Construction completed and ANZ (NZ) Business Confidence should. It’s hard to not see the kiwi go higher at this point, getting past 0.9490 (1.0540) will be tough.
Current Level: 0.9459 (1.0563)
Resistance: 0.9495 (1.0650)
Support: 0.9389 (1.0530)
Last Weeks Range: 0.9394-0.9483 (1.0545-1.0645)
The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) extended last week’s run higher against the Australian Dollar (AUD) to 0.9450 (1.0580) pushing past the 11 week high set late August. The RBA minutes from the last meeting signalled the RBA were in a “monitoring” zone with the RBA not in any hurry to make another cut. Aussie buyers still remain nervous since jobs reports were poor last week which could continue into next week’s set of economic data. The next point of concern for the AUD is 0.9480 (1.0550) if we get a weekly close above this level its thin air through to 0.9700 (1.0300) from there. Next week’s RBA comments and NZ ANZ Business Confidence will be key.
The current interbank midrate is: NZDAUD 0.9430 AUDNZD 1.0595
The interbank range this week has been: NZDAUD 1.0579- 1.0656 AUDNZD 0.9384- 0.9452
After an eventful week in the Australian Dollar (AUD), New Zealand Dollar (NZD) pair we have seen it flatline this week around the 0.9400 (1.0640) zone. With poor Aussie jobs data and the RBNZ leaving the cash rate unchanged at 1.0% we saw a shift from 0.9250 (1.0815) eventuate. We have nothing of note on this week’s calendar to consider only today’s RBA post 5th November policy minutes. The NZD seems to have reasonable support around current levels with the 0.9380 (1.0660) expected to hold this week. Poor US/China trade headlines will continue to support the kiwi against the AUD.
Current Level: 0.9393 (1.0639)
Resistance: 0.9410 (1.0660)
Support: 0.9380 (1.0628)
Last Weeks Range: 0.9242-0.9429 (1.0606-1.0820)
All recent gains made by the Australian Dollar (AUD) to 0.9210 (1.0875) last week were undone when the RBNZ left their cash rate unchanged causing a flurry of buying excitement in the New Zealand Dollar (NZD). The RBNZ caught markets out by leaving the cash rate at 1.0%, going against the grain of most analysts who predicted a cut to 0.75%. The kiwi surged to 0.9410 (1.0630) where it sits just shy of this levels Friday. Aussie employment data missed the mark contracting in October -19,000 with unemployment ticking higher to 5.3% from 5.2%. This will raise concerns for the RBA when they meet next on the 3rd of December after claiming they had stopped their easing bias last week. Breaking back above 0.9380 (1.0660) the 10 week high shows a momentum swing back in favour of the kiwi. If we get a daily close above 0.9410 (1.0630) we could see price go higher.
The current interbank midrate is: NZDAUD 0.9397 AUDNZD 1.0636
The interbank range this week has been: NZDAUD 0.9242- 0.9428 AUDNZD 1.0606- 1.0820
A late flurry of support in the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) into the weekly close took price to 0.9230 (1.0830) against the Australian Dollar (AUD) prior to continuing the rally into Tuesday to 0.9295 (1.0760). Support will be tested this week for the kiwi with expectations that the RBNZ will cut rates to 0.75%. Aussie Jobs reporting Thursday which is expected to fall in line or improve on recent expectations should push buyers back into the AUD. We favour the continuing AUD momentum from the early August high to continue to 0.9115 (1.0970) over the coming days/weeks.
Current Level: 0.9289 (1.0759)
Last Weeks Range: 0.9204-0.9307 (1.0745-1.0865)
It’s been one way traffic this week in the Australian Dollar (AUD), New Zealand Dollar (NZD) pair with improved sentiment at the RBA taking price to fresh 13 month lows around 0.9200 (1.0865). The RBA kept their cash rate at the historical low of 0.75% hinting at no further easing for a while with improvements in key data of late. For the kiwi the opposite tone developed after poor jobs numbers in the unemployment rate showed a sharp increase from 3.9% to 4.2% taking the NZD south. Looking forward into next week we have the crucial RBNZ official cash rate and monetary statement. It’s possible most of the cut is already priced into the curve but a cut would certainly bring about a fresh leg lower of sorts for the kiwi. Retesting weekly support at 0.9200 (1.0870) is close to home.
The current interbank midrate is: NZDAUD 0.9249 AUDNZD 1.0807
The interbank range this week has been: NZDAUD 0.9203- 0.9339 AUDNZD 1.0707- 1.0865
The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) extended late last week’s surge to 0.9345 (1.0700) Monday against the Australian Dollar (AUD) before giving back gains into Tuesday as price drifted lower to 0.9285 (1.0770). A poor print from Aussie Retail Sales at 0.2% from 0.4% expected for September was largely ignored as market focus is squarely on today’s RBA cash rate announcement. Markets have priced in a 90% probability of no change today with a 25% chance of a further cut in 2019. Looking ahead Wednesday’s NZ employment numbers and unemployment are not expected to be great, this could put fresh pressure on the kiwi with the Aussie targeting 0.9240 (1.0820) the 2019 low.
Current Level: 0.9292 (1.0764)
Resistance: 0.9345 (1.0820)
Last Weeks Range: 0.9239-0.9339 (1.0708-1.0824)
The Australian Dollar (AUD) extended last week’s push higher against the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) to 0.9240 (1.0820) into midweek trading, before giving back gains to the kiwi. Price reversed all the way back to the weekly open around 0.9310 (1.0745) Friday helped by ANZ Business Confidence and poor Chinese Manufacturing. We still believe the AUD has more in it and could soon retest the downside through 0.9230 (1.0830) before trading back around what we believe as fair value 0.9100 (1.1000) – 0.9200 (1.0870) range. Any look around 0.9345 (1.0700) should be well capped. Certainly next week’s RBA now holds main focus in the cross with expectations now 50/50 the RBA will cut rates. This was far higher a week ago but with a decent CPI result and other data surprising, our forecast has shifted.
The current interbank midrate is: NZDAUD 0.9303 AUDNZD 1.0741
The interbank range this week has been: NZDAUD 0.9239- 0.9317 AUDNZD 1.0733- 1.0823
The Australian Dollar (AUD) extended last week’s rally into Monday rising to 1.0780 (0.9275) against the New Zealand Dollar (NZD). Bouncing off recent support of 1.0660 (0.9380) several times over the past four week’s suggests solid support around this area as we head into a heavy week of economic publications. Positive news around Brexit and more importantly US/China trade talks this week could improve the Aussie further to retest 1.0810 (0.9250), certainly quarterly Aussie CPI Wednesday and Building Approvals along with NZ Business Confidence Thursday should confirm recent momentum
Current Level: 0.9298 (1.0750)
Resistance: 0.9345 (1.0790)
Support: 0.9270 (1.0700)
Last Weeks Range: 0.9271-0.9383 (1.0658-1.0786)
The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) extended last run higher against the Australian Dollar (AUD) reaching 0.9380 (1.0660). Bouncing off this seven week high the kiwi eased lower into Friday to 0.9355 (1.0690). With no economic releases this week for the pair we look ahead to next week’s calendar with focus on Aussie q/q CPI and Building Approvals, followed by ANZ Business Confidence. Any positive news to come out of the Trade talks between US and Chinese officials should support the Aussie, Vice President Pence was surprisingly hawkish last night when spoke about a trade deal being done in the coming weeks.
The current interbank midrate is: NZDAUD 0.9353 AUDNZD 1.0687
The interbank range this week has been: NZDAUD 0.9304- 0.9382 AUDNZD 1.0658- 1.0748
The New Zealand Dollar (NZD), Australian Dollar (AUD) cross has bounced around the 0.9330 (1.0720) area into Tuesday this week after closing at 0.9310 (1.0740). The kiwi has edged higher from last week’s low of 0.9265 (1.0790) as it looks to retest earlier daily resistance at 0.9365 (1.0680). Positive risk sentiment in the US/China trade war should further support the Aussie due to close economic ties between the two countries. This week’s tier one economic data has nothing of significance. We suggest price should range around current levels into next week’s Aussie midweek quarterly CPI and NZ ANZ Business Confidence.
Current Level: 0.9333 (1.0701)
Resistance: 0.9365 (1.0820)
Support: 0.9245 (1.0680)
Last Weeks Range: 0.9266-0.9363 (1.068-1.0792)
Direction has been harder to pick than skin off custard this week in the Australian Dollar (AUD), New Zealand Dollar (NZD) pair. The Aussie has outperformed the kiwi a touch with price travelling to 0.9270 (1.0790) from the open price of 0.9335 (1.0710) Thursday prior to a pullback in the NZD back to 0.9310 (1.0740) Friday. NZ quarterly CPI impressed along with Aussie employment data this week, both affecting price shifts. Risk sentiment in the US/China trade war should further support the Aussie due to close economic links between the two countries. Next week we have a thin week of economic releases with only the RBA assistant governor Kent speaking Wednesday. A retest of support around 0.9240 (1.0820) is seen as the most likely scenario over the next couple of weeks.
The current interbank midrate is: NZDAUD 0.9315 AUDNZD 1.0732
The interbank range this week has been: NZDAUD 0.9265- 0.9361 AUDNZD 1.0682- 1.0793
Mid last week’s momentum in the Australian Dollar (AUD) continued into Monday outperforming the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) cutting through 0.9300 (1.0752) support to reach 0.9292 (1.0762). Data in the pair has been thin of late but with this week’s NZ quarterly CPI and later Australian employment data publishing, we should get further clues on direction. Risk sentiment due to optimism of a “partial trade deal” in the US/China trade war has possibly supported the AUD a little more due to the close links between the Australian and Chinese economy. Support around the prior low of 0.9240 should offer relief for the kiwi, but we suspect a momentum change around Aussie employment data with expectations of lower new job numbers for September and higher unemployment.
Current Level: 0.9300 (1.0740)
Resistance: 0.9320 (1.0760)
Support: 0.9295 (1.0730)
Last Weeks Range: 0.9291-0.9378 (1.0663-1.0763)
The Australian Dollar (AUD) rallied overnight on the more positive US/China trade news but traded sideways against the NZD. Currently this cross is around 0.9346 and we expect the current range to hold into next week…No clear direction for this cross as both the RBA and RBNZ have similar rate outlooks. However, any RBA timing for a rate cut likely to be ahead of the RBNZ, NZD move to the 0.9400 level would be on the cards. Data releases next week for both economies may give clearer direction.
The current interbank midrate is: NZDAUD 0.9336 AUDNZD 1.0699
The interbank range this week has been: NZDAUD 0.9328- 0.9377 AUDNZD 1.0664- 1.0720
The Australian Dollar (AUD) never recovered after it turned around Tuesday from it’s high against the NZD dollar at 0.9260 (1.0800), post the RBA announcement. The RBA cut their overnight cash rate from 1.0% to 0.75% in efforts to boost economic growth with Lowe saying he needed full employment and inflation up around the target 2.0%. The Aussie remains fundamentally bearish as its heavily exposed to US trade tensions with China. Price Friday tracks around the 0.9340 (1.0700) area with Aussie Retail Sales now the focus later today for the pair. A light economic calendar next week with only Aussie business and consumer confidence to hold attention. The late July bearish channel looks to have been broken this week with price climbing back through 0.9320 (1.0730).
The current interbank midrate is: NZDAUD 0.9350 AUDNZD 1.0691
The interbank range this week has been: NZDAUD 0.9251- 0.9367 AUDNZD 1.0675- 1.0809
The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) rose to 0.9345 (1.0700) against the Australian Dollar (AUD) late last week before returning down amid poor NZ data. ANZ Business Confidence and NZIER Business Confidence both published down on expectations in line with business pessimism not seen since the 2008 financial crisis. 35% of businesses expect worsening economic conditions heading into 2020. Today Aussie Building Approvals will print ahead of the long awaited RBA rate decision. Over the past fortnight banks and analysts have bought forward their expectation of cuts with a probability of the RBA cutting to 0.75% now priced in at 80%. Attention will mostly be over the Lowe’s comments with how he views further cuts over coming months. Later in the week Retail Sales in Australia releases with reasonable chances we will see a spike to consumer spending in August benefiting the Aussie.
Current Level: 0.9266 (1.0786)
Resistance: 0.9345 (1.0820)
Support: 0.9240 (1.0700)
Last Weeks Range: 0.9261-0.9343 (1.0703-1.0798)
Most of the action in the New Zealand Dollar (NZD), Australian Dollar (AUD) cross has been driven on the back of central bank speak. The Aussie Dollar drifted off from the post weekly open of 0.9230 (1.0835) to 0.9330 (1.0720) into Friday based on RBA and RBNZ rhetoric. The Reserve Bank of New Zealand left the official cash rate unchanged on Wednesday at 1.0% but said there’s still room to cut further if necessary. Meeting inflation targets and maintaining high employment are the key focus looking ahead for the central bank amid a weakening global outlook. Lowe made comment the Aussie economy is at a “gentle turning point”. We will see when the RBA meets next week to possibly cut rates – certainly most of the Australian Banks are expecting a 25 point cut to 0.75%. In theory, we should see the AUD weaken leading into the release but suspect most of the expectation of a cut will be mostly already priced into the currency.
The current interbank midrate is: NZDAUD 0.9312 AUDNZD 1.0731
The interbank range this week has been: NZDAUD 1.0709- 1.0818 AUDNZD 0.9243- 0.9337
The New Zealand Dollar (NZD), Australian Dollar (AUD) pair continues to bounce around a range between 0.9225 (1.0840) and 0.9300 (1.0750) over the past seven days, currently trading at 0.9290 (1.0765) Tuesday lunch. RBA Governor Lowe speaks tonight amid increasing pressures by analysts and Aussie banks to cut rates below the current 1.0% as the Australian economy tries to respond from the weakest expansion period since the 2008 financial crisis. Wednesday’s RBNZ will be the local focus this week with predictions Governor Orr will retain the current 1.0% based on an aggressive 50 point cut in early August. The bearish band in the NZDAUD remains intact from the high of 0.9680 (1.0330) but a break above 0.9345 (1.0700) could see further NZD pressures develop.
Current Level: 0.9287 (1.0763)
Resistance: 0.9300 (1.0830)
Support: 0.9235 (1.0750)
Last Weeks Range: 0.9226-0.9303 (1.0749-1.0839)
Early this week we saw price in the Australian Dollar (AUD) , New Zealand Dollar (NZD) pair reach a yearly low of 0.9235 (1.0830). Price didn’t stay long at this level retracing back through the weekly open on not so flash Aussie employment data. Australian jobs data released higher than expected with an additional 34,700 people being added to the workforce, but it was the unemployment rate rising to 5.3% from 5.2% which pressured the Aussie lower through Friday. Next week’s RBNZ rate announcement followed by the Orr’s statement will give us further clues as to NZD movement, for now momentum is firmly with the AUD in the current bullish channel.
The current interbank midrate is: NZDAUD 0.9265 AUDNZD 1.0784
The interbank range this week has been: NZDAUD 0.9234- 0.9304 AUDNZD 1.0748- 1.0829
Although Chinese data took the Australian Dollar (AUD) lower off this week’s open it has fared ok considering ongoing risk factors. With price trading around the 0.9240 (1.0820) area Tuesday lunch, down from 0.9295 (1.0760) on the week against the New Zealand Dollar (NZD), data has been the supporting difference for the Aussie since the beginning of September post the RBA announcement. Thursday’s NZ GDP q/q reading offers an opportunity for the kiwi to regain recent losses. Australian jobs data follows with figures predicted to be good, in line with July’s buoyant result. Direction at the moment favours a retest of prior support around 0.9115 (1.0970) through to next week’s RBNZ announcement.
Current Level: 0.9248 (1.0805)
Resistance: 0.9345 (1.0970)
Support: 0.9115 (1.0700)
Last Weeks Range: 0.9235-0.9395 (1.0644-1.0828)
The New Zealand Dollar (NZD), Australian Dollar (AUD) cross sits just off pivotal support of 0.9320 (1.0732) at 0.9325 (1.0722) Friday after extending last week’s support for the AUD from 0.9385 (1.0655). The kiwi has remained on the backfoot for most of the week reflecting last week’s positive Aussie data releases. NAB Business confidence showed a slight deterioration in August with Westpac consumer sentiment also printing down on expectations with pressures continuing on family finances and concerns around near term economic outlook, both had little effect as the Aussie pushed on. We have another light week ahead on the economic docket for the pair with just NZ GDP q/q and Aussie employment the focus. The AUD may hold the upper hand over the next two weeks through to the RBA cash rate announcement where they are expected to cut to 0.75% from 1.0%
The current interbank midrate is: NZDAUD 0.9320 AUDNZD 1.0725
The interbank range this week has been: NZDAUD 0.9321- 0.9398 AUDNZD 1.0640- 1.0728
After the Australian Dollar (AUD) broke lower towards the weekly close Friday to 0.9410 (1.0630) against the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) it has recovered into Tuesday to 0.9370 (1.0675) with the kiwi remaining on the back foot from the 6 August high of 0.9745 (1.0262). Data in the pair this week is light with only business confidence to publish on both sides of the ditch to impact price. Firm momentum for the Aussie looks to be the ongoing theme this week continuing on from last week’s positive data reflections. Getting past heavy resistance around 0.9345 (1.0700) could pose an issue, if we see a break below here the kiwi could be in trouble.
Current Level: 0.9372 (1.0665)
Resistance: 0.9410 (1.0730)
Support: 0.9320 (1.0627)
Last Weeks Range: 0.9339-0.9406 (1.0632-1.0708)
This week’s Australian Dollar (AUD), New Zealand Dollar (NZD) cross has been choppy pivoting around the 0.9350 (1.0690) area for most of the week. Bouncing higher off the low of 0.9340 (1.0710) several times suggests the recent move has been exhausted for now. We would have expected price movement to have been more supportive of AUD given recent positive data. The RBA left rates unchanged Tuesday at 1.0% with Lowe’s comments perceived as less dovish- saying, the outlook for the global economy remains reasonable and will ease policy on an “as needed” basis. Inflation will remain just under the 2% target through to 2020. Next week will be quiet for economic data. A break below 0.9315 (1.0730) could signal further downward bias.
The current interbank midrate is: NZDAUD 0.9356 AUDNZD 1.0679
The interbank range this week has been: NZDAUD 0.9338- 0.9399 AUDNZD 1.0639- 1.0708
The New Zealand Dollar (NZD), Australian Dollar (AUD) cross reached a fresh low of 0.9353 (1.0690) at Friday’s close before recovering to 0.9390 (1.0650) through to Tuesday. However the bearish channel from the 6 August high of 0.9745 (1.0260) remains in place with heavy support around the 0.9345 (1.0700) area in play. The kiwi will be taking instructions this week from the Aussie data releases as there are several price moving items to publish including the RBA Cash rate today at 4.30 NZT (1.0% unchanged expected) and quarterly GDP Wednesday. Data clearly will dictate price moves with the pair trading anywhere between 0.9250 (1.0810) and 0.9550 (1.0470) at the end of the week – we support a NZD push higher.
Current Level:0.9376 (1.0654)
Last Weeks Range: 0.9352-0.9455 (1.0576-1.0693)
The Australian Dollar (AUD) has outperformed the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) for the fourth straight week taking price to 0.9370 (1.0660) Friday. The bearish channel from the 6 August high of 0.9745 (1.0260) remains in place with a 0.9345 (1.0700) retest looming. The kiwi has never recovered from the 50 point cash rate cut on the 7th of August. Data out in Australia in the form of construction completed showed a further slowdown for the second quarter which is worry for the Australian economy with the chances of a recession still a possibility in the coming quarters. ANZ Business Confidence in NZ plunged to a 2008 low putting added pressure on the kiwi Thursday. If price can break past 0.9345 (1.0700) the kiwi is in real trouble of going much lower. Next week the RBA will announce their cash rate – no change is expected just yet from 1.0%
The current interbank midrate is: NZDAUD 0.9377 AUDNZD 1.0654
The interbank range this week has been: NZDAUD 0.9366- 0.9495 AUDNZD 1.0531- 1.0676
After the Australian Dollar’s (AUD) brief weekly open setback to 0.9495 (1.0530) the Aussie has regained its momentum against the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) into Tuesday posting 0.9435 (1.0600) just shy of last week’s low. Direction in August has mainly been Aussie supportive but with Building Approval figures publishing Friday potentially looking shaky based on a poor June reading of -1.2% the Aussie’s run could be short term. ANZ Business confidence publishes first on Thursday and will show us a broad picture of NZ business health. A bounce off the early June level of 0.9420 (1.0620) may offer crucial support for the kiwi
Current Level: 0.9426 (1.0608)
Resistance: 0.9565 (1.0630)
Support: 0.9410 (1.0455)
Last Weeks Range: 0.9420-0.9495 (1.0532-1.0616)
The New Zealand dollar (NZD) has underperformed its Australian cousin (AUD) this week, grinding lower to currently trade around 0.9425 (1.0610). The RBA minutes released on Tuesday had little impact, and the only other significant release this week will be NZ retail sales data due in the next hour. The market is expecting a small gain of 0.1%. For now, the focus for the pair remains on the downside and we expect further losses to test minor support around 0.9380 (1.0661), and then potentially 0.9320 (1.0730), over the coming week.
The current interbank midrate is: NZDAUD 0.9422 AUDNZD 1.0614
The interbank range this week has been: NZDAUD 0.9420 – 0.9506 AUDNZD 1.0520 – 1.0616
A break below 0.9570 (1.0450) the recent bearish channel from mid April suggests the Australian Dollar (AUD) may have turned a corner against the New Zealand Dollar (NZD). Price this week has continued through to 0.9478 (1.0550) a continuation of last week’s fantastic Aussie employment data. Today we lead into the RBA meeting minutes from the 5th August with investors suggesting the RBA will take a watch and learn approach over the coming months and change policy as necessary. NZ Retail Sales prints Friday the only other data of importance on the calendar this week. The NZDAUD cross I would suggest won’t travel far from the nest this week.
Current Level: 0.9478 (1.0543)
Resistance: 0.9570 (1.0630)
Support: 0.9410 (1.0450)
Last Weeks Range: 0.9462-0.9549 (1.0472-1.0569)
With no data on the calendar this week for the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) it took its cues from a rather busy Australian Dollar (AUD) – price sits Friday at 0.9490 after opening at 0.9530 (1.0490). Australian wage price inflation improved to 0.6% from 0.5% for the June quarter including an increase to the number of new people employed rising from a flat 500 in June to 41,000 in July after an expected 15,000 was predicted. The unemployment rate stayed at 5.2% since rising in March from 5.0%, overall Australian employment figures remain solid and in a healthy spot giving the RBA something to consider. Technically the cross has broken past 0.9560 (1.0460) channel support and looks to retest 0.9440 (1.0590) in the coming days. NZ Retails Sales in the only highlight on the calendar next week.
The current interbank midrate is: NZDAUD 0.9482 AUDNZD 1.0536
The interbank range this week has been: NZDAUD 0.9484- 0.9567 AUDNZD 1.0452- 1.0544
After a massive week for the Australian Dollar (AUD), New Zealand Dollar (NZD) pair after both central banks made rate announcements price has consolidated around 0.9550 (1.0470) into Tuesday after bouncing off 0.9745 (1.0265) earlier last week. It’s been quite a number of months since we have seen such a shift in this cross. This week it’s only Aussie data on the calendar to focus and drive price from its current happy place. If today’s NAB Business confidence and later Aussie Employment data prints well we could see the Aussie push another leg higher against the kiwi to the next resistance point of 0.9410 (1.0630) representing early May 2019 levels. The long term trendline suggests we need a close below 0.9505 (1.0520) to confirm new AUD bullish momentum.
Current Level: 0.9537 (1.0485)
Resistance: 0.9570 (1.0520)
Support: 0.9505 (1.0450)
Last Weeks Range: 0.9505-0.9742 (1.0265-1.0521)
What a tussle it has been this week in the New Zealand Dollar (NZD), Australian Dollar (AUD) pair with both central banks making interest rate announcements. From the start we saw the AUD drift out of favour to 0.9745 (1.0260) to reach a September 2016 high on the back of the RBA statement and strong NZ employment data. The RBA left rates unchanged at 1.0% and said downside risks remain – comments were in line with other central bank comments when they said the global outlook remains questionable and inflation expectations low. Wednesday’s RBNZ cash rate announcement stole the show by shocking markets by cutting the official cash rate to 1.0% from 1.5% in a move where markets were expecting only a 25 basis point shift lower to 1.25%. It was an unbelievable decision given the only time the RBNZ has cut rates by 50 points in the past was after the 9/11 terrorist attack, during the GFC, and post 2011 Christchurch earthquakes. Price reversed hard after the release to 0.9540 (1.0480) continuing to drift lower to 0.9505 (1.0520) Friday with the AUD pegging back earlier losses to a four week high. Have we seen a trend change in the NZDAUD cross? I suspect not, we will be a better gauge over the following week with Australian Westpac Consumer Confidence and crucial Aussie employment data Thursday.
The current interbank midrate is: NZDAUD 0.9521 AUDNZD 1.0497
The interbank range this week has been: NZDAUD 0.9505- 0.9742 AUDNZD 1.0264- 1.0520
The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) surged through recent resistance around 0.9660 (1.0350) to reach 0.9745 (1.0263) against the Australian Dollar (AUD) Tuesday after a surprise to NZ Unemployment figures. The NZ Unemployment for the June quarter printed at 3.9% down from 4.2% in the March quarter. This was represented in an increase of 9,000 to the NZ workforce leaving the total number of unemployed in NZ at 109,000. This afternoon’s RBA cash rate announcement and statement is now the focus with expectations of no cut just yet to the 1.0%. Special interest around how governor Lowe perceives the local economy and how future data may influence further easing later in the year should hold the attention of markets. Tomorrow’s RBNZ cash rate announcement is next with a cut expected to 1.25%. With NZ employment now said to be at full capacity comments by governor Orr will be key for gauging future easing. With price around the 0.9675 area direction is extremely tough to gauge, at the close of business tomorrow I’m guessing price could be back around 0.9600 (1.0420)
Current Level: 0.9673 (1.0332)
Resistance: 0.9740 (1.0450)
Support: 0.9570 (1.0270)
Last Weeks Range: 0.9564-0.9742 (1.0265-1.0456)
The Australian dollar (AUD) tried to stage something of a comeback against the New Zealand dollar (NZD) this week, but in the past 12 hours a surprise announcement from US president Trump regarding new tariffs on China has completely undermined it. Wednesday’s release of disappointing NZ business confidence data followed by stronger than forecast Australian inflation figures, saw the NZDAUD trade to low of 0.9564, from above 0.9600 prior. But in the wake of the surprise US announcement on tariffs overnight, the AUD has seen significant selling pressure driving the cross back up over 0.9600 to test trend resistance at 0.9652. In the next couple of hours we have Australian Retail Sales data to digest with the market looking for a gain of 0.3%. The Aussie is certainly out of favor at the moment and it’s going to take a good retail sales number to turn it around. Topside resistance continues to come in around 0.9650, while key downside support is now seen at 0.9535. Monday is an Australian bank holiday but next week should be any anything but quiet. We have NZ employment data to digest along with central bank meetings from both the RBA and RBNZ. It may well be a defining week for the NZDAUD pair.
The current interbank midrate is: NZDAUD 0.9624 AUDNZD 1.0380
The interbank range this week has been: NZDAUD 0.9562- 0.9650 AUDNZD 1.0363- 1.0457
The New Zealand Dollar (NZD), Australian Dollar (AUD) has been extremely range bound- especially over the past 10 days. Remaining between 0.9570 (1.0450) and 0.9615 (1.0400) since mid-July it’s tough to call any break either way from these flat levels, currently 0.9605. If anything price in the bullish channel since April looks to make a move back to around 0.9550 levels with topside limited. With so much focused offshore this week with the FOMC announcement and NFP Friday it’s not hard to see why this pair has been relegated to the back stalls. On the calendar we have ANZ Business Confidence tomorrow as well as Australian quarterly CPI and later AUD Retail Sales to hopefully get things moving.
Current Level: 0.9603 (1.0409)
Resistance: 0.9635 (1.0450)
Support: 0.9570 (1.0380)
Last Weeks Range: 0.9566-0.9620 (1.0395-1.0454)
The New Zealand Dollar (NZD), Australian Dollar (AUD) cross has bounced around a fair bit having reached 0.9630 (1.0385) Monday, the high before drifting lower to 0.9565 (1.0454) Wednesday, back to 0.9620 (1.0394) Thursday and 0.9582 (1.0436) Friday where we sit currently. RBA governor Lowe staunchly defended his mandate for a 2-3% inflation target but said rates will stay low for some time leaving chances of further rate cuts to come data dependant. NZ Trade Balance also gave the kiwi a short boost after printing at 365M from the 100M expected. Overall the pair still sits comfortably within the long term bullish trend from 18 April’s 0.9315 (1.0735) with it looking like it may again break past 0.9600 levels into August providing 0.9530 (1.0490) is not broken. With the 8th August RBNZ expected to cut rates this must be factored in for any buyers of AUD.
The current interbank midrate is: NZDAUD 0.9580 AUDNZD 1.0431
The interbank range this week has been: NZDAUD 0.9565- 0.9629 AUDNZD 1.0385- 1.0454
The New Zealand dollar (NZD) remains stubbornly elevated against its Australian cousin, the AUD. There has been little we can isolate as a key driver for the pair over the past week, it seems the NZD has just outperformed the AUD as wider market influences impact each individual currency. None of this has changed our base view that the pair is somewhat overvalued currently and we still look for a move back toward 0.9450/9500 at some stage ahead of the RBNZ meeting in early August. There is some strong technical resistance around the 0.9630 area, and it just so happens that corresponds to the high reached in the past 12 hours. This week’s economic calendar is a little light with only NZ Trade Balance data and a speech from RBA Gov Lowe of any note.
Current Level: 0.5954 (1.0434)
Resistance: 0.9630 (1.0526)
Support: 0.9500 (1.0384)
Last Weeks Range: 0.9539-0.9628 (1.0386-1.0483)
The New Zealand dollar (NZD) outperformed its Australian cousin, the AUD, this week although it’s hard to pinpoint exactly what the driver was. Most of the gains came on Wednesday night as both currencies surged against the USD, and the pair briefly traded over 0.9600 yesterday before Australian employment data saw the Australian dollar claw back some ground against the kiwi. Support is now seen around 0.9505 and resistance around 0.9620. For clients looking to convert NZD to AUD, we still recommend taking advantage of any moves back toward or over 0.9600. Our base case scenario is still for the pair to drift lower as we draw closer the RBNZ rate meeting in Early August. Next week is a quiet one data wise with just the trade balance from NZ and a speech from RBA Governor Lowe of any note.
The current interbank midrate is: NZDAUD 0.9589 AUDNZD 1.0429
The interbank range this week has been: NZDAUD 0.9531 – 0.9616 AUDNZD 1.0399 – 1.0492
With both the NZD and AUD making significant gains across the board over the past week, the NZDAUD cross rate has held relatively steady, stuck in a range around a mid point of 0.9550 or so. We have seen a few tests toward the weeks high of 0.9577, but they have all been short lived and we believe any strength toward that level represents good value buying of AUD. We expect the pair to drift lower over the coming weeks as we approach the August RBNZ meeting and a widely expected interest rate cut. Key support currently comes in around 0.9500 while topside resistance is seen around 0.9600. RBA minutes are set for release in the next hour, focus will then turn to Australian employment data on Thursday.
Current Level: 0.9548 (1.0474)
Resistance: 0.9600 (1.0526)
Support: 0.9500 (1.0417)
Last Weeks Range: 0.9494-0.9577 (1.0442-1.0533)
The New Zealand dollar (NZD) has outperformed its Australian cousin this week, driving the NZDAUD cross rate to a high of 0.9577 (AUDNZD 1.0442). The AUD under-performance has come on the back of a couple of weak surveys. Both consumer sentiment and business confidence declined last month reinforcing the outlook for sluggish economic activity going forward. That being said, we have just had two rapid fire interest rate cuts from the RBA and there is some upcoming fiscal stimulus in the form of tax cuts from the Morrison government, so it may be wise not to get too carried away with expectations of further gains in this pair. There is significant resistance around 0.9600 and that may well continue to cap the pair. We could easily see the cross range between the broad parameters of 0.9400 and 0.9600 over the coming weeks. With that in mind, clients looking to convert NZD to AUD should take advantage of any further strength toward that 0.9600 area.
The current interbank midrate is: NZDAUD 0.9551 AUDNZD 1.0470
The interbank range this week has been: NZDAUD 0.9484 – 0.9577 AUDNZD 1.0442 – 1.0544
The Australian dollar (AUD) has outperformed the New Zealand dollar over the past week, and that trend may well continue over the coming days. Ever since the RBA cut interest rates last week, and delivered a less dovish than expected statement, the AUD has performed reasonably well. Clients looking to convert NZD to AUD should view any potential move back toward 0.9550 as a good opportunity to deal. We suspect the pair may well be heading back toward 0.9450, which is an area it seemed very comfortable around throughout April, May and much of June. There is little from NZ to dive the pair this week, while from Australia we get Business Confidence and Consumer Sentiment data.
Current Level: 0.9498 (1.0528)
Resistance: 0.9585 (1.0588)
Support: 0.9445 (1.0433)
Last Weeks Range: 0.9484-0.9590 (1.0427-1.0544)