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Economic Releases

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Tuesday 08/09

  • All Day, USD, Bank Holiday
  • All Day, CAD, Bank Holiday

Thursday 10/09

  • 2am, CAD,  BOC Rate Statement
  • 2am, CAD, Overnight Rate
    • Forecast 0.25%
    • Previous 0.25%
  • 1145pm, EUR, Main Refinancing Rate
    • Forecast 0.00%
    • Previous 0.00%
  • 1145pm, EUR, Monetary Policy Statement
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FX News

FX Update

Worldwide coronavirus cases surpass 26.4 million with over 872,000 official deaths.

Any hint of Adrian Orr suggesting the New Zealand Dollar was overvalued yesterday was put to bed as he shrugged off speculation he was going to talk down the kiwi. He said he was not concerned over New Zealand Dollar current exchange rates with relatively resilient exports providing the New Zealand economy with a buffer. His comments also highlighted his challenges facing the central bank as they try to stimulate growth without making the current financial and social situation worse. There is a perception that actions by central banks are only benefiting those holding assets but the biggest contribution it is making is in economic well-being by boosting employment through sustained lower rates. The NZD went on to post fresh highs post Orr’s release in the NZDUSD cross, clearly having an opposite effect on price to what markets were expecting. The RBNZ lowered its cash rate to 0.25% in March this year and could cut it further into negative territory towards the end of the year, in efforts to keep downward pressure on retail interest rates.

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FX Update

Worldwide coronavirus cases surpass 25.6 million with over 854,000 official deaths.

Auckland shifted to level 2 Monday morning – actually level 2.5 as our restrictions are slightly different to the rest of the country’s level 2 old school level. Gatherings are limited to 10 people and 50 in cases of Tangi’s or funerals. The wearing of masks is now compulsory on all public transport and encouraged while in public spaces. Globally the virus has surpassed 25.3 million total cases as the USA then Brazil and India clock up the most cases. It won’t be long before India given the sheer number of people could bypass the USA’s 6.2million. It is said that for each week NZ is at a level 3 lockdown with the rest of NZ at level 2 this costs the NZ Govt around 300M per week economically which is approx 0.5% of GDP.

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FX Update

Worldwide coronavirus cases surpass 24.6 million with over 835,000 official deaths.

Auckland coronavirus lockdown (level 3) has been extended to August 30th 

I’m wondering about the discrepancies between “real data” and what’s actually happening in the US at the moment. It seems headlines and economic data announcements are highlighting major disparities. Hopes of vaccines, progress in the US/China trade negotiations and improving industry is painting an unrealistic picture of an economy rising from the ashes. In my opinion- it’s simply not and has a very long way to go before we see any sustainable “recovery”. Over the past couple of days we have seen equities rise boosting commodity related products and risk currencies such as the kiwi and Aussie – this off the back of “feel good”. For example, Durable Goods Orders for July increased by 11.2% easily beating estimates of 4.4%.

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Jackson Hole in Focus

Worldwide coronavirus cases surpass 23.8 million with over 814,000 official deaths.
Auckland coronavirus lockdown (level 3) has been extended to August 30th 

US indices closed higher on Friday to end a record week for stocks, in particularly the S & P 500 and NASDAQ. The S&P is sitting at a record closing high of 3,431 The Nasdaq also closed at a record high at 11,379. Contributing factors which helped markets reach fresh highs were US Manufacturing which hit its highest level in 19 months, while services reached the highest levels in 17 months. Home Sales for July saw a m/m spike of 24% with the average selling price for homes also hitting an all-time high jumping to US $304,100. This week on the economic calendar sees a lack of significant data releases which should have market participants dial in on global issues and coronavirus headline events.

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Economic Releases

Monday 24/08

  • 1045am, NZD, Retail Sales q/q
    • Actual -14.60%
    • Forecast -16.30%
    • Previous -1.20%

Wednesday 26/08

  • 2am, USD, CB Consumer Confidence
    • Forecast 93.2
    • Previous 92.6
  • 130pm, AUD, Construction Work Done q/q
    • Forecast -6.50 %
    • Previous -1.00 %
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FX Update

Worldwide coronavirus cases surpass 22.84 million with over 796,000 official deaths.

US Dollar safe haven buying was back on the agenda Thursday after the Federal Reserve Minutes released. The Federal Reserve released minutes from the July 28th meeting acknowledging officials expected greater support in the fight for economic recovery from Covid-19. The Fed believed the economy should return to normal over the next “few” years- hinging on optimism that additional measures by the government with efforts to support incomes and spending. The minutes showed that subtle changes from the previous minutes highlighted the willingness of fed participants to “sharpen” their policy at the next meeting on September 15th. There was little objection from members that the pandemic would continue to weigh heavily on the economic outlook with risks in employment and inflation the greatest concerns.

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Markets Await Directional Cues

Worldwide coronavirus cases surpass 22 million with over 774,000 official deaths.

NZ has postponed its national election by 4 weeks to the 17th October. 

Markets went into the weekend trading flat, not really bothered about attacking any one direction, risk conditions were subdued. The weekly winner was the Canadian Dollar, by far the strongest currency outperforming its main peers based on a pickup in data and higher crude prices. The Weakest currency was the New Zealand Dollar edging out the Japanese Yen based on a recently dovish RBNZ. Coronavirus still occupies headlines around the world with the virus still unable to be contained in many countries. In the US they are still averaging over 50,000 new cases every day. NZ has a fresh outbreak with authorities stretched to limit further spreading into the wider community. 

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