FX News

FX News

NZD/USD Transfer

The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) started the week in a positive mood extending gains made last week against the US Dollar (USD) to 0.5980. This wasn’t to last, equity markets started to fall into the red and US consumer confidence showed a pessimistic look, the third month straight. The cross dropped sharply overnight to 0.5890 – over half a cent. To make things worse Tuesday’s local ANZ business outlook gauge also fell to its lowest level since September 2023. NZ jobs numbers just released saw a rise to the unemployment rate to 4.3% from 4.0% in the December quarter. Coming up Thursday morning we have the Fed meeting with no change from 5.5% expected and later US Non-Farm Payroll. With prices down under 0.5900 we are not surprised; further downside bias is predicted.

Current Level: 0.5881
Support: 0.5850
Resistance: 0.6000
Last week’s range: 0.5881- 0.5968

 

FX News

FX Update: Fed worry markets

Market Overview

• New Zealand Consumer Confidence Index falls to 82.1 in April approaching the level last seen during the GFC in 2009
• The Federal Reserve meeting this week along with non-farm payrolls hold our focus this week, the fed may move less ‘dovish” at the meeting and hold rates “higher for longer”.
• Bank of Japan ( BoJ) leave cash rate unchanged at 0 to 0.1% in line with expectations, this sent the JPY spiralling lower into the weekly close.
• US consumer sentiment index dips lower to 77.2 from 77.9 in March.
• Japanese Inflation slops for the second straight month coming in at 1.6% y/y in March down from 2.4%.
• Analysts are predicting a delay of rate cuts by the Reserve Bank of Australia with consensus now that a cut won’t come into effect until early 2025.
• Consumers in the UK are feeling better about economic prospects with the sentiment barometer in April showing the best report since the beginning of 2022.
• The Japanese Yen (JPY) has been the strongest currency this week while the weakest currency is the Australian Dollar (AUD).

FX News

EURO/AUD Transfer

The Australian Dollar (AUD) has bounced back from 0.5995 (1.6680) losses over the last couple of trading against the Euro (EUR) reaching 0.6055 (1.6515) this morning. Risk sentiment came roaring back towards the close of the week and into Monday after conflicts between Iran and Israel Friday were downplayed. We see resistance at 0.6060 (1.6500) levels the fib 50% retracement of last week’s move. Aussie inflation report for the March quarter prints tomorrow- 0.8% forecast vs 0.6% previous, more importantly this should shift the y/y number from 4.1% to 3.4% and may put pressure on the AUD. A possible retest to 0.6025 (1.6600) levels has a chance.

Current Level: 1.6504
Resistance: 1.6600
Support: 1.6500
Last Weeks Range: 1.6412- 1.6680

FX News

AUD/EURO Transfer

The Australian Dollar (AUD) has bounced back from 0.5995 (1.6680) losses over the last couple of trading against the Euro (EUR) reaching 0.6055 (1.6515) this morning. Risk sentiment came roaring back towards the close of the week and into Monday after conflicts between Iran and Israel Friday were downplayed. We see resistance at 0.6060 (1.6500) levels the fib 50% retracement of last week’s move. Aussie inflation report for the March quarter prints tomorrow- 0.8% forecast vs 0.6% previous, more importantly this should shift the y/y number from 4.1% to 3.4% and may put pressure on the AUD. A possible retest to 0.6025 (1.6600) levels has a chance.

Current Level: 0.6059
Resistance: 0.6060
Support: 0.6065
Last Weeks Range: 0.5995- 0.6093

FX News

GBP/AUD Transfer

UK Retail Sales depreciated the British Pound (GBP) late in the week against the Australian Dollar (AUD) reversing earlier gains made by the GBP after geopolitical tensions after Iran attacks on Israel. Coming off 1.9480 (0.5135) to close around 1.9270 (0.5190) the GBP extended losses to 1.9120 (0.5230) in early Tuesday trading. Equity markets and stable commodity levels have also supported the AUD, the S&P up over 1% in NY trading. On the docket this week is Aussie CPI q/q for March expected to print higher. Watch for a re-test of moves towards 0.5240 (1.9090).

Current Level: 1.9127
Resistance: 1.9530
Support: 1.9100
Last Weeks Range: 1.9200- 1.9480

FX News

AUD/GBP Transfer

UK Retail Sales depreciated the British Pound (GBP) late in the week against the Australian Dollar (AUD) reversing earlier gains made by the GBP after geopolitical tensions after Iran attacks on Israel. Coming off 1.9480 (0.5135) to close around 1.9270 (0.5190) the GBP extended losses to 1.9120 (0.5230) in early Tuesday trading. Equity markets and stable commodity levels have also supported the AUD, the S&P up over 1% in NY trading. On the docket this week is Aussie CPI q/q for March expected to print higher. Watch for a re-test of moves towards 0.5240 (1.9090).

Current Level: 0.5228
Support: 0.5120
Resistance: 0.5235
Last week’s range: 0.5133- 0.5208

FX News

AUD/USD Transfer

Signs of a potential base forming in the Australian Dollar (AUD), US Dollar (USD) cross look likely with price bouncing off 0.6380 several times over the past year. The reversal off 0.6365 late last week extended into Tuesday with the pair reaching 0.6450, a break past 0.6480 would be reason for a rethink of the overall downside bias in play. Big picture geopolitical uneasiness remains unsettled overall with tensions still reasonably high in Iran/Israel. Still however a mild recovery in equity markets overnight was welcomed by buyers of the big dollar. On the calendar this week is Australian first quarter CPI with predictions of a rise from 0.6% to 0.8% with the y/y number to come off 4.1% to 3.4%. A pickup in the iron ore price from early April’s 98.00 to 108.25 this morning is having a modest impact on the AUD and could continue if Chinese Industrial orders remain buoyant.

Current Level: 0.6460
Support: 0.6400
Resistance: 0.6630
Last week’s range: 0.6360- 0.6492

FX News

EURO/NZD Transfer

The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) bounced back off Monday’s open at 0.5530 (1.8090) to reach 0.5560 (1.7980) into Tuesday trading. 0.5560 (1.7980) is the 50% fib retracement points of recent high and lows and suggests the kiwi may have been overbought to current levels. We favour a retest of the 0.5540 (1.8050) this week data dependant. Eurozone Services and Manufacturing print tonight expected to reflect modest rises in March.

Current Level: 1.7998
Resistance: 1.8100
Support: 1.7900
Last Weeks Range: 1.7875 – 1.8134

FX News

NZD/EURO Transfer

The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) bounced back off Monday’s open at 0.5530 (1.8090) to reach 0.5560 (1.7980) into Tuesday trading. 0.5560 (1.7980) is the 50% fib retracement points of recent high and lows and suggests the kiwi may have been overbought to current levels. We favour a retest of the 0.5540 (1.8050) this week data dependant. Eurozone Services and Manufacturing print tonight expected to reflect modest rises in March.

Current Level: 0.5556
Support: 0.5525
Resistance: 0.5585
Last week’s range: 0.5514- 0.5594

FX News

GBP/NZD Transfer

UK Manufacturing tonight should show modest improvements to orders, the only data on the roster this week in the New Zealand Dollar (NZD), British Pound (GBP) cross and may improve the GBP of the current 0.4795 (2.0860) level if the data impresses. The kiwi is trading at a 6-week high at the moment after breaking past resistance at 0.4790 (2.0870). Earlier UK Retail Sales was unimpressive with rises to auto fuel and non-food store sales, the data adding to the GBP weakness. Our pick is for the NZD to continue to the downside after the recent run up.

Current Level: 2.0086
Resistance: 2.1200
Support: 2.0750
Last Weeks Range: 2.0911- 2.1203