FX News

FX News

AUD/USD Transfer

The Australian Dollar (AUD) reached 0.6400 midweek climbing off Monday’s open from 0.6310 against the US Dollar (USD) before reversing hard all the way back through 0.6300 as risk mood deteriorated Thursday. Geopolitical uncertainty has gripped markets with worry developing in the Middle East conflict. The Fed added to downside moves, saying they will keep policy higher for longer. Greenback demand evident, the US Dollar index surging. Early Friday we saw the cross post 0.6270, this is the lowest price in the pair since October 2022 and only the 4th time we have seen the cross trade this low this century. Looking ahead, next week we have the Fed rate release and statement and later (NFP) Non-Farm Payroll releasing. No change from 5.5% is predicted.

The current interbank midrate is: AUDUSD 0.6327

The interbank range this week has been: AUDUSD 0.6269- 0.6399

 

FX News

NZD/GBP Transfer

The British Pound (GBP) pushed to 0.4775 (2.0950) early week against the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) extending moves higher over the past two weeks creating a 5-week low in the cross. Assisted by better-than-expected UK Manufacturing data, the sector expanding in the month of September, the argument for the Bank of England to “pause” rate increases has come into play at next week’s policy meeting. Prices returned to 0.4820 (2.0740) midweek before more risk off sentiment sent the kiwi reeling again. The 50% Fib support around 0.4775 (2.0950) should hold heading into the weekly close.

The current interbank midrate is: NZDGBP 0.4796 GBPNZD 2.0850

The interbank range this week has been: NZDGBP 0.4770- 0.4822 GBPNZD 2.0734- 2.0964

 

FX News

NZD/USD Transfer

The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) looked good Monday rising to 0.5870 against the US Dollar (USD) but stalled around this area as markets turned “risk off” and the kiwi was sold. Global uncertainties in Gaza are attributing to broad buying of USD, the kiwi easing lower into Friday clocking 0.5775 a 1 year low in the pair. A flurry of US data in the form of Durable Goods, advance GDP, 4.9% q/q vs 4.5% forecast, jobless claims and pending home sales have held up the greenback. On the docket next week, we have NZ jobs numbers, unemployment is predicted to rise from 3.6% and key Fed Funds Rate announcement, we expect the Fed to leave rates unchanged at 5.5%. In a very bear market, we expect the kiwi to fall further from current levels. If we look at the chart we see thin air to support at 0.5550. I know it hurts to buy USD at these levels but many need to consider that in several weeks/months we could be staring down the barrel.

The current interbank midrate is: NZDUSD 0.5820

The interbank range this week has been: NZDUSD 0.5772- 0.5869

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

FX News

NZD/AUD Transfer

The New Zealand Dollar extended declines this week against the Australian Dollar (AUD) reaching 0.9165 (1.0910) a new 26 July 2023 low. The Aussie gained on higher-than-expected CPI in September coming in at 5.6% y/y after 5.3% was forecast. The RBA did not comment on whether they will consider raising rates at their November 7 meeting suggesting the outcome is within range of what they were expecting. We don’t believe a word of it with markets positioning for a rise from 4.10%. Next week’s NZ Jobs data is our focus, unemployment predicted to rise above 3.6%. On the chart downside moves look limited for now with solid support at 0.9175 (1.0900)

The current interbank midrate is: NZDAUD 0.9197 AUDNZD 1.0868

The interbank range this week has been: NZDAUD 0.9163- 0.9244 AUDNZD 1.0817- 1.0913

 

FX News

Calendar of Releases

Tuesday October 24th
9:00pm AUD RBA Gov Bullock Speaks

Wednesday October 25th
2:45am USD Flash Manufacturing PMI
Forecast 49.5
Previous 49.8
2:45am USD Flash Services PMI
Forecast 49.9
Previous 50.1
3:00am USD Richmond Manufacturing Index
Forecast 3
Previous 5
1:30pm AUD CPI q/q
Forecast 1.10%
Previous 0.80%
1:30pm AUD CPI y/y
Forecast 5.30%
Previous 5.20%
1:30pm AUD Trimmed Mean CPI q/q
Forecast 1.00%
Previous 0.90% Read more

FX News

NZD/GBP Transfer

It’s been all downhill this week for the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) extending declines from 0.4880 (2.0480) to 0.4800 (2.0840) against the British Pound (GBP) into morning trading. UK CPI came in hotter than analysts were expecting Wednesday at 6.7% y/y vs 6.6% forecast. This is unlikely to worry the Bank of England to much heading into their next policy meeting. The uptick in CPI attributed to the rise in fuel costs associated with the conflict in the Middle East. The risk off tone may last a while, setbacks in the GBP should be limited to 2.0380 (0.4910) with UK Retail Sales printing tonight.

The current interbank midrate is: NZDGBP 0.4811 GBPNZD 2.0785

The interbank range this week has been: NZDGBP 0.4797- 0.4884 GBPNZD 2.0475- 2.0846

FX News

AUD/GBP Transfer

The Australian Dollar (AUD), British Pound (GBP) traded within recent ranges over the week coming into Friday around 0.5210 (1.9190) just above the weekly open. Although earlier week UK CPI came in hotter than expected this didn’t have much effect, the pound falling away to 1.9070 (0.5245) as support for the Aussie returned. Australian Jobs numbers came in soft with less people employed in September, the Aussie giving back gains to 1.9260. Tonight’s Retail Sales in the UK is expected to print negative around the -0.3% mark which in turn could push the Aussie higher.

The current interbank midrate is: AUDGBP 0.5210 GBPAUD 1.9138

The interbank range this week has been: AUDGBP 0.5186-0.5243 GBPAUD 1.9071- 1.9280

 

FX News

AUD/USD Transfer

After reaching 0.6390 midweek the Australian Dollar (AUD) has succumbed to a fresh bout of “risk off” sentiment giving back gains reaching 0.6290 against the US Dollar (USD). Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East have intensified creating a wave of safe haven buying of the greenback. Aussie jobs numbers were disappointing with a drop in the unemployment rate from 3.7% to 3.6%. Australia added less jobs than expected in September which has eased pressures on the RBA for a potential hike at their Nov 7 meeting. As its very bear market currently, we recommend buying USD on any decent spike.

 

The current interbank midrate is: AUDUSD 0.6326

The interbank range this week has been: AUDUSD 0.6295- 0.6392

 

FX News

NZD/AUD Transfer

The Australian Dollar (AUD) extended moves higher in the second part of the week against the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) reaching 1.0840 (0.9225) in what has been the biggest single week rally by the AUD this year after it opened around 1.0640 (0.9400). The kiwi has underperformed across the board, none more than against the AUD. Australian job’s data helped the cause when the economy added fewer jobs in September, the unemployment Rate easing off 3.7% to 3.6%. Punters are now starting to forecast a rate hike at the RBA’s meeting on 7 November unless we see a proper dip in next week’s inflation report. We are seeing some consolidation around the 0.9240 (1.0820) area heading into the weekly bell.

The current interbank midrate is: NZDAUD 0.9231 AUDNZD 1.0826

The interbank range this week has been: NZDAUD 0.9224- 0.9401 AUDNZD 1.0637- 1.0841

FX News

NZD/USD Transfer

Stress around global markets this week has seen the “risk” correlated New Zealand Dollar (NZD) struggle a smidge. Clocking a new daily close for 2023 yesterday at 0.5815 this is the weakest the NZD has traded since October 2022. Tensions are red hot in Gaza with investors waiting to see how things will pan out. We have seen some consolidation heading into Friday with the kiwi recovering to 0.5950. Earlier US Retail Sales surprised, printing much higher than the predicted 0.2% at 0.7% causing a selloff in the bond markets. Chances of the Fed hiking interest rates on Nov 2nd increasing to 50/50. The Israel/Hamas war and humanitarian crisis will no doubt keep the kiwi in a bear mood looking ahead.

The current interbank midrate is: NZDUSD 0.5842

The interbank range this week has been: NZDUSD 0.5815- 0.5928