NZD/EURO Transfer

The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) has largely ignored global tensions developing in the Gaza strip. Monday’s risk markets held the power, the kiwi rallying to 0.5700 (1.7540) this morning from 0.5655 (1.7680) against the Euro (EUR) as US Equities closed up 0.6% in overnight trading. This equals a 12-week high in the cross. Upside moves this week are looking fairly exhausted extending to 0.5715 (1.7500) when considering offshore risks developing.

Current Level: 0.5700
Support: 0.5750
Resistance: 0.5435
Last week’s range: 0.5611 – 0.5687

GBP/NZD Transfer

The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) has pushed past resistance at 0.4900 (2.0400) against the British Pound (GBP) Monday on its way to clock 0.4920 (2.0320) as we head into Tuesday trading. A move through 0.4935 (2.0270) could signal further support in the kiwi all the way to 2/1 (0.5000). With the British economy now slowing based on rising interest rates having an effect on the economy, employment is expected to also rise thus we see further hikes from the Bank of England unlikely. With predicted rises in NZ inflation this has opened the door for another RBNZ hike and upside for the NZD.

Current Level: 2.0308
Resistance: 2.1390
Support: 2.000
Last Weeks Range: 2.0287- 2.0583

NZD/GBP Transfer

The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) has pushed past resistance at 0.4900 (2.0400) against the British Pound (GBP) Monday on its way to clock 0.4920 (2.0320) as we head into Tuesday trading. A move through 0.4935 (2.0270) could signal further support in the kiwi all the way to 2/1 (0.5000). With the British economy now slowing based on rising interest rates having an effect on the economy, employment is expected to also rise thus we see further hikes from the Bank of England unlikely. With predicted rises in NZ inflation this has opened the door for another RBNZ hike and upside for the NZD.

Current Level: 0.4924
Resistance: 0.5000
Support: 0.4675
Last Weeks Range: 0.4858 – 0.4930

AUD/NZD Transfer

The New Zealand Dollar (NZD), Australian Dollar (AUD) extended moves Monday reaching 0.9410 (1.0625) before easing back to 0.9395 (1.0640) into Tuesday. The kiwi continues to be well supported as the “carry trade” wins out, the NZD a more attractive buy based on cash rate return. This week’s data releases is slim pickings with only Australian Business Confidence publishing. A retest of resistance seen at 0.9460 looks a chance depending on next week’s key employment and CPI publishing.

Current Level: 1.0642
Resistance: 1.0900
Support: 1.0554
Last Weeks Range: 1.0648 – 1.0742

NZD/AUD Transfer

The New Zealand Dollar (NZD), Australian Dollar (AUD) extended moves Monday reaching 0.9410 (1.0625) before easing back to 0.9395 (1.0640) into Tuesday. The kiwi continues to be well supported as the “carry trade” wins out, the NZD a more attractive buy based on cash rate return. This week’s data releases is slim pickings with only Australian Business Confidence publishing. A retest of resistance seen at 0.9460 looks a chance depending on next week’s key employment and CPI publishing.

Current Level: 0.9391
Resistance: 0.9475
Support: 0.9175
Last Weeks Range: 0.9309 – 0.9391

 

NZD/USD Transfer

Rallying equity prices boosted the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) Monday in the face of Geopolitical tensions developing in Israel. The kiwi pushed above pivotal 0.6000 early this morning against the US Dollar (USD) clocking 0.6025 as I write. If we get a daily close above this area this will be the first time since early August offering further momentum to the topside. Later in the week however if the situation in Israel worsens we could see offsetting losses develop. Buying USD over 0.6000 looks decent buying right now all things considered. US CPI y/y prints Friday the main news for the week, expectations are for a small drop to 3.6%, perhaps not enough for the Fed to leave rates on hold at their November 2 meeting.

Current Level: 0.6031
Resistance: 0.6200
Support: 0.5850
Last Weeks Range: 0.5871 – 0.6006

FX update: Risk on tender hooks

Market Overview

Key Points:

• Weekend attacks in the Gaza Strip fuel geopolitical tensions
• The US Military is supplying air defences, munitions and security assistance to Israel in response to the massive attack by Hamas terrorists.
• Crude Oil has surged to over 84.00 per barrel as the battle in Israel takes hold. The Israeli prime minister Netanyahu said he has no choice but to launch assaults.
• The war in Israel could lead to “safe haven” buying of Gold and the greenback.
• The ECB are saying that rapid rate rises are behind them, convinced that they are “done” rising as the economic picture improves.
• The Japanese Yen (JPY) has been the strongest currency this month while the Australian Dollar (AUD) has been the worst performer.

Economic Releases

Monday October 9th
All Day JPY Bank Holiday

Tuesday October 10
All Day CAD Bank Holiday
All Day USD Bank Holiday
1:30pm AUD NAB Business Confidence 2
10th-15th CNY New Loans 2500B 1360B

Wednesday October 11th
6:00am USD FOMC Member Waller Speaks

Thursday October 12
1:30am USD Core PPI m/m 0.20% 0.20%
1:30am USD PPI m/m 0.30% 0.70%
3:15am USD FOMC Member Waller Speaks
7:00am USD FOMC Meeting Minutes
7:00pm GBP GDP m/m 0.20% -0.50% Read more

AUD/GBP Transfer

6 weeks of momentum in the Australian Dollar (AUD) ended Wednesday against the British Pound (GBP) when price clocked 0.5200 (1.9220) the GBP pulling back 2 weeks of declines. The RBA helped to inspire a rebound in the GBP as risk returned to markets, but the cross was unfazed. RBA’s new governor Michele Bullock was careful in her statement not to give away hints of a future rate hike. Solid UK PMI reads, and broad-based selling of the Aussie is the theme into Friday. Breaking below support at 0.5250 (1.9050) we may see further downside in the AUD leading into the close.

The current interbank midrate is: AUDGBP 0.5226 GBPAUD 1.9135

The interbank range this week has been: AUDGBP 0.5202- 0.5285 GBPAUD 1.8921- 1.9223

 

 

 

 

AUD/USD Transfer

The Australian Dollar (AUD) broke well below the game line Tuesday against the US Dollar (USD) clocking 0.6280, falling below support at 0.6350 a 1 year low. As risk sentiment returned the Aussie clawed back losses over the week to reach 0.6370 in early Friday. The new RBA governor Michele Bullock’s first meeting set the stage for a possible upcoming rate hike in November highlighting upside risks to inflation. All eyes now are now on 3rd quarter inflation with CPI still running hot. US Non-Farm Payroll releases late tonight expected to be a poor number based on midweek ADP suggesting a downside bias.

The current interbank midrate is: AUDUSD 0.6368

The interbank range this week has been: AUDUSD 0.6285- 0.6445