This Week’s Key Points

Market Overview:

Key Points:

• Risk aversion into Tuesday trading has seen most crosses dip sharply as punters buy the greenback.
• NZ building activity is down in the September quarter 2.4%
• Australian Services PMI for November 46.0 vs prior 47.9
• As we kick off the festive season the Fed are still unsure of “policy guidance” and where interest rates are headed, they have said incoming data will be key to decisions down the track.
• Markets are pricing in rate cuts of 130 points by the ECB in 2024
• 700 Palestinian’s have been killed in the past 24 hours in Gaza. Iran has warned of an expansion of war in the region if Israeli forces continue to commit war crimes.
• The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) has been the strongest currency over the week while the EURO (EUR) has been the worst performer.

Calendar of Economic Releases

Tuesday December 5th
4:30pm AUD Cash Rate
Forecast 4.35%
Previous 4.35%
4:30pm AUD RBA Rate Statement

Wednesday December 6th
4:00am USD ISM Services PMI
Forecast 52.2
Previous 51.8
4:00am USD JOLTS Job Openings
Forecast 9.31M
Previous 9.55M
1:30pm AUD GDP q/q
Forecast 0.40%
Previous 0.40%

Thursday December 7th
12:00am GBP BOE Gov Bailey Speaks
2:15am USD ADP Non-Farm Employment Change
Forecast 126K
Previous 113K
4:00am CAD BOC Rate Statement
4:00am CAD Overnight Rate 5.00% 5.00% Read more

EURO/AUD Transfer

The AUD remains in inflationary conditions as does the GBP, but the interest rate differential favours the Pound. The UK has experienced amongst the highest inflations levels in Europe and is well advanced in the rising interest rate environment. Although the differential favours the GBP, they may be reaching the end of the cycle and the Bank of England may choose to maintain at high levels, rather than raise rates again. The RBA has indicated that they may support further rate rises and this may be a short-term support for the AUD.

Current Level: 1.6440
Resistance: 1.6800
Support: 1.6300
Last Weeks Range: 1.6453 – 1.6665

AUD/EURO Transfer

Recessionary conditions across Europe are having the desired effect on inflation and the ECB may now look to halt interest rate rises. The ECB and Bank of England are clearly at the end of their monetary policy tightening cycle, while Australian inflationary conditions persist. These monetary and economic conditions may work in the favour of the AUD, for the short-term, but long-term pain is on the horizon. Fiscal largesse remains an issue across the West, with deficit and debt a root cause of inflation.

Current Level: 0.6047
Resistance: 0.6080
Support: 0.6020
Last Weeks Range: 0.6021 – 0.6077

GBP/AUD Transfer

The AUD remains in inflationary conditions as does the GBP, but the interest rate differential favours the Pound. The UK has experienced amongst the highest inflations levels in Europe and is well advanced in the rising interest rate environment. Although the differential favours the GBP, they may be reaching the end of the cycle and the Bank of England may choose to maintain at high levels, rather than raise rates again. The RBA has indicated that they may support further rate rises and this may be a short-term support for the AUD.

Current Level: 1.9080
Resistance: 1.9300
Support: 1.9000
Last Weeks Range: 1.9030 – 1.9185

AUD/GBP Transfer

The AUD remains in inflationary conditions as does the GBP, but the interest rate differential favours the Pound. The UK has experienced amongst the highest inflations levels in Europe and is well advanced in the rising interest rate environment. Although the differential favours the GBP, they may be reaching the end of the cycle and the Bank of England may choose to maintain at high levels, rather than raise rates again. The RBA has indicated that they may support further rate rises and this may be a short-term support for the AUD.

Current Level: 0.5210
Support: 0.5190
Resistance: 0.5280
Last week’s range: 0.5203 – 0.5242

AUD/USD Transfer

The RBA raised rates under the camouflage of the Melbourne Cup, at their last meeting. Inflationary conditions remain a serious threat to the Australian economy and monetary policy continues to threaten. The interest rate differentials may offer some short-term benefits for the AUD, as the Fed looks to have reached ‘peak inflation’ and may look to cut rates, while the RBA has a bias to raise rates or at least extend the ‘higher for longer’ mantra.

Current Level: 0.6590
Support: 0.6555
Resistance: 0.6625
Last week’s range: 0.656 – 0.6630

EURO/NZD Transfer

Heavy recessionary economic conditions prevail in the UK and Europe, as high interest rates, blow-out deficit/debt spending and war continues. Inflation has been tumbling lower across Europe as the economic recession spreads across the economic zone. The war in Eastern Europe adds instability and threatens Geo-Political and economic conditions. Close attention will be paid to the coming PMI data set to be released, which will give insight to the current economic conditions.

Current Level: 1.7660
Resistance: 1.8100
Support: 1.7639
Last Weeks Range: 1.7650 – 1.0805

NZD/EURO Transfer

Heavy recessionary economic conditions prevail in the UK and Europe, as high interest rates, blow-out deficit/debt spending and war continues. Inflation has been tumbling lower across Europe as the economic recession spreads across the economic zone. The war in Eastern Europe adds instability and threatens Geo-Political and economic conditions. Close attention will be paid to the coming PMI data set to be released, which will give insight to the current economic conditions.

Current Level: 0.5632
Support: 0.5510
Resistance: 0.5680
Last week’s range: 0.5553 – 0.5661

GBP/NZD Transfer

The GBP has been under pressure due to the rising reserve, although the cross remains relatively stable. The UK is experiencing recessionary economic conditions, as in Europe, but this has been accompanied by higher inflation that remains persistent. The Bank of England will keep interest rates ‘higher for longer’ in order to combat the destructive inflation. This may lend short-term support to the GBP.

Current Level: 2.0480
Resistance: 2.0815
Support: 2.0455
Last Weeks Range: 2.0473- 2.0805