NZD/GBP Transfer

The New Zealand Dollar (NZD), British Pound (GBP) has consolidated around 0.4810 (2.0800) levels this week but falling into Friday to 0.4790 (2.0830) after a bout of “risk aversion” overnight in equity markets. UK GDP came in bang on expectation at 0.20% for the month of January better than December’s -0.1% showing the country could be making progress out of the doom and gloom. Momentum suggests we could see further moves to the downside towards support at 0.4780 (2.0920)

The current interbank midrate is: NZDGBP 0.4802 GBPNZD 2.0824

The interbank range this week has been: NZDGBP 0.4801- 0.4831 GBPNZD 2.0698- 2.0828

 

AUD/USD Transfer

The Australian Dollar (AUD) has traded around 0.6600 levels for most of the week against the US Dollar (USD). Last night’s US Retail Sales came in soft, creating a “risk off” market tone with equity markets slipping lower, the release sending the Aussie lower to 0.6570 into Friday morning. Earlier US CPI y/y came in above expectations at 3.2% vs 3.10% creating the probability that rate cuts will be made later than expected. Next week’s RBA rate statement meeting will confirm “a remain” at 4.35% but most likely signal they will keep rates “higher for longer” possibly well into 2025.

The current interbank midrate is: AUDUSD 0.6580

The interbank range this week has been: AUDUSD 0.6568- 0.6638

 

AUD/GBP Transfer

The UK economy is back in black after GDP figures for January showed a slight improvement from December’s -0.1% printing at 0.2%. The signs are there that the economy may be improving out of the doldrums however the economy is still fragile needing to build on these numbers in the following months. The Australian Dollar (AUD), British Pound (GBP) cross hasn’t travelled outside of recent ranges this week – currently trading at 0.5160 (1.9370) after bouncing off last week’s high at 0.5185 (1.9280) midweek.

The current interbank midrate is: AUDGBP 0.5159 GBPAUD 1.9383

The interbank range this week has been: AUDGBP 0.5142- 0.5185 GBPAUD 1.9283- 1.9445

 

 

 

NZD/USD Transfer

US Retail Sales was a disappointment overnight rising less than expected with a 0.6% print vs 0.8% for March. Equities came off dragging the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) from 0.6160 to 0.6120 in early Friday. Earlier US CPI came in at 3.2% y/y higher than the 3.1% forecast with the Federal Reserve now expected to start cutting rates around midyear. Looking ahead we have the Fed Funds Rate Thursday and NZ GDP q/q. Prices in the cross may drift lower into the close.

The current interbank midrate is: NZDUSD 0.6124

The interbank range this week has been: NZDUSD 0.6120- 0.6183

 

NZD/AUD Transfer

Rhetoric around the RBA keeping interest rates high until 2025 are doing the rounds and holding the Australian Dollar (AUD) “Bid” against the New Zealand Dollar (NZD). Lower highs followed by lower lows is still the theme on the charts with the Aussie moving into the late 0.92’s challenging late January lows. Governor Bullock says the fight to tame inflation is far from over, the longer it stays above 3% the harder it becomes to massage it lower. Price support at 0.9260 (1.0800) is fast coming into view, a break below here and 0.9130 (1.0950) becomes a chance in the medium term. On the docket next week, RBA cash rate and unemployment rate announcements.

The current interbank midrate is: NZDAUD 0.9309 AUDNZD 1.0738

The interbank range this week has been: NZDAUD 0.9295- 0.9359 AUDNZD 1.0684- 1.0758

 

 

 

EURO/AUD Transfer

Lower highs followed by lower lows represents 2024 moves in the Euro (EUR), Australian Dollar (AUD) cross to date. The trend last week supports further weakness in the Aussie after a bounce off 0.6080 (1.6450) multiple support line to current prices at 0.6055 (1.6515) as I write. A retest of last week’s low is the likely scenario, especially given the breakthrough the 50-day moving average. We have no significant data printing in the pair until NZ GDP on the 21st of March.

Current Level: 1.6531
Resistance: 1.6600
Support: 1.6455
Last Weeks Range: 1.6439- 1.6743

AUD/EURO Transfer

Lower highs followed by lower lows represents 2024 moves in the Euro (EUR), Australian Dollar (AUD) cross to date. The trend last week supports further weakness in the Aussie after a bounce off 0.6080 (1.6450) multiple support line to current prices at 0.6055 (1.6515) as I write. A retest of last week’s low is the likely scenario, especially given the breakthrough the 50-day moving average. We have no significant data printing in the pair until NZ GDP on the 21st of March.

Current Level: 0.6049
Resistance: 0.6080
Support: 0.6025
Last Weeks Range: 0.5972- 0.6083

GBP/AUD Transfer

Big moves in the Australian Dollar (AUD), British Pound (GBP) saw swings from 0.5110 (1.9560) to 0.5190 (1.9270) last week post Aussie GDP release. UK construction came in hot but failed to boost the GBP. Also of note, Chinese import data came in above expectation, the Aussie reacting positively.UK GDP for January prints Wednesday with reports pointing to a rise of 0.2% up from December’s -0.1%. Growth overall has been rising since October with the jobless rate falling. A positive report would ease concerns of a sharp recession. We think a retest of 0.5185 (1.9280) is on the cards this week.

Current Level: 1.9394
Resistance: 1.9500
Support: 1.9290
Last Weeks Range: 1.9273- 1.9568

AUD/GBP Transfer

Big moves in the Australian Dollar (AUD), British Pound (GBP) saw swings from 0.5110 (1.9560) to 0.5190 (1.9270) last week post Aussie GDP release. UK construction came in hot but failed to boost the GBP. Also of note, Chinese import data came in above expectation, the Aussie reacting positively.UK GDP for January prints Wednesday with reports pointing to a rise of 0.2% up from December’s -0.1%. Growth overall has been rising since October with the jobless rate falling. A positive report would ease concerns of a sharp recession. We think a retest of 0.5185 (1.9280) is on the cards this week.

Current Level: 0.5156
Support: 0.5130
Resistance: 0.5185
Last week’s range: 0.5110- 0.5190

AUD/USD Transfer

US Non-Farm Payroll Friday boosted the Australian Dollar to fresh highs of 0.6660 against a weakened US Dollar (USD). In fairness the AUD came from a low of 0.6480 much before the release. China imports data and a stronger equity market also contributed to the strong move higher. Notably the cross has rejected 0.6660 on the topside which sits plumb on the 50% fib retracement of the recent low of 0.6440 and the high of 0.6870 at the start of the year. A slew of US data releases this week including Retail Sales and CPI y/y Wednesday. We think the AUD may drop away towards 0.6540 areas.

Current Level: 0.6610
Support: 0.6500
Resistance: 0.6670
Last week’s range: 0.6476- 0.6666