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Monday August 28th
1:30pm AUD Retail Sales m/m
Forecast 0.20%
Previous -0.80%
All Day GBP Bank Holiday

Tuesday August 29th
7:40pm AUD RBA Gov-Designate Bullock Speaks

Wednesday August 30th
1:00am USD S&P/CS Composite-20 HPI y/y
Forecast -1.50%
Previous -1.70%
2:00am USD CB Consumer Confidence
Forecast 116.2
Previous 117
2:00am USD JOLTS Job Openings
Forecast 9.70M
Previous 9.58M
1:30pm AUD CPI y/y
Forecast 5.20%
Previous 5.40%
All Day EUR German Prelim CPI m/m
Forecast 0.30%
Previous 0.30%
7:00pm EUR Spanish Flash CPI y/y
Forecast 2.50%
Previous 2.30% Read more

Monday August 21
1:15pm CNY 1-y Loan Prime Rate 3.40% 3.55%

Wednesday August 23
7:15pm EUR French Flash Manufacturing PMI 45.2 45.1
7:15pm EUR French Flash Services PMI 47.5 47.1
7:30pm EUR German Flash Manufacturing PMI 38.6 38.8
7:30pm EUR German Flash Services PMI 51.5 52.3
8:30pm GBP Flash Manufacturing PMI 45.1 45.3
8:30pm GBP Flash Services PMI 50.9 51.5

Thursday August 24
1:45am USD Flash Manufacturing PMI 48.9 49
1:45am USD Flash Services PMI 52.4 52.3 Read more

Tuesday August 15
1:30pm AUD Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes
1:30pm AUD Wage Price Index q/q
Forecast 0.90%
Previous 0.80%
2:00pm CNY Industrial Production y/y
Forecast 4.30%
Previous 4.40%
2:00pm CNY Retail Sales y/y
Forecast 4.20%
Previous 3.10%
6:00pm GBP Claimant Count Change
Previous 25.7K
6:00pm GBP Average Earnings Index 3m/y
Previous 6.90%
All Day EUR French Bank Holiday
All Day EUR Italian Bank Holiday
9:00pm EUR German ZEW Economic Sentiment
Forecast -15
Previous -14.7 Read more

Monday August 7th
All Day AUD Bank Holiday

Tuesday August 8th
All Day CAD Bank Holiday
1:30pm AUD NAB Business Confidence

Wednesday August 9th
12:15am USD FOMC Member Harker Speaks
1:30pm CNY CPI y/y
Forecast -0.40%
Previous 0.00%
1:30pm CNY PPI y/y
Forecast -4.00%
Previous -5.40%
3:00pm NZD Inflation Expectations q/q
Previous 2.79% Read more

The ECB raised rates last week to 4.25% which was fully locked in, rallying the Euro (EUR) through to 1.6570 (0.6035) areas against the Australian Dollar (AUD). Lagarde said the bank was undecided as to whether they will need to hike further or hold at their next meeting in September. We think that with sticky inflation and strong wage growth could support one further hike towards the end of the year. Monday’s price action saw the cross back towards 1.6360 (0.6110) heading into today’s sessions, a retest of the bottom of the recent range at 1.6250 (0.6155) is our bet this week. All eyes will be on the RBA rate decision today, the central bank widely expected to hike from 4.10% to 4.35%.

Current Level: 0.6110 (1.6366)
Resistance: 0.6155 (1.6570)
Support: 0.6035 (1.6245)
Last Weeks Range: 0.6032-0.6150 (1.6260-1.6577)

A double whammy of central bank excitement this week is where our attention fixed on both the RBA and Bank of England (BoE) expected to hike interest rates a quarter percent. The Pound (GBP) gave back losses Monday retreating from 1.9320 (0.5175) to 1.9075 (0.5240) in the lead up to today’s RBA decision, pushing back towards the top of the recent trading range. The AUD/GBP sits at the top of a trend channel, we expect the cross to retest 1.9300 (0.5180) levels over the week.

Current Level: 0.5237 (1.9094)
Resistance: 0.5280 (1.9175)
Support: 0.5215 (1.8940)
Last weeks Range: 0.5175-0.5282 (1.8931-1.9322)

The Australian Dollar retraced Friday losses against the US Dollar (USD) from the 0.6620 low reaching 0.6740 early Tuesday as “risk” improved. Repricing of Fed expectations late in the week saw the Aussie drop from 0.6820 on strong data releases as the Fed considers hikes, adding downside pressures for the AUD. US Consumer sentiment rose to its highest level in 2 years as the job’s market remains stable. RBA today should see a rise of 25 points to the cash rate to 4.35%- marking the highest rate since November 2011. Later in the week key Non-Farm Payroll releases should give us plenty of volatility across the board. The cross may struggle to push past 0.6750 resistance this week.

Current Level: 0.6722
Resistance: 0.6890
Support: 0.6645
Last Weeks Range: 0.6620-0.6819

Risk currencies outperformed Monday, the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) reversing off 0.5600 (1.7870) trading back to 0.5650 (1.7700) areas in early Tuesday. This week’s key economic data comes in the form of NZ job’s data with unemployment expected to rise from 3.4%. The RBNZ will be closely watching this release with some analysts predicting the cash rate could rise in the November meeting to 5.75% even though they have said 5.5% would be the peak. Price is currently trading at the top of the long-term bear channel which could signal moves towards 0.5620 (1.7800) this week.

Current Level: 0.5648 (1.7705)
Resistance: 0.5700 (1.8035)
Support: 0.5545 (1.7545)
Last Weeks Range: 0.5534-0.5654 (1.7684-1.8067)

The British Pound (GBP) recovered mid-week losses as we suggested towards the weekly close reaching 2.0900 (0.4785) against the New Zealand Dollar (NZD). Monday’s action has seen price back at 2.0650 (0.4840). This week’s Bank of England (BoE) policy meeting should be dovish with expectations that growth forecasts could be downgraded. This in response to speculation the economy could drop into recession. A 25-point hike should be enough in order to bring inflation under control. NZ unemployment figures Wednesday should reflect a rise to the unemployed as the country grapples with economic uncertainty.

Current Level: 0.4840 (2.0661)
Resistance: 0.4875 (2.0875)
Support: 0.4790 (2.0515)
Last Weeks Range: 0.4780-0.4853 (2.0602-2.0918)

The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) clocked a two-week high overnight against the Australian Dollar (AUD) of 0.9275 (1.0780) before falling back to 0.9240 (1.0820) as I write. RBA Decision later today is our key data with markets looking for direction in the cross. The RBA should hike 25 points, this is not a given but with recent data highlighting stubborn inflation, wage pressures and inflation we expect them to raise. This should give the NZD/AUD downward pressure post release. NZ Wage data tomorrow is also key for the RBNZ- anything lower than a 3.5% read of unemployment may raise questions for further tightening policy.

Current Level: 0.9243 (1.0811)
Resistance: 0.9321 (1.0909)
Support: 0.9166 (1.0728)
Last Weeks Range: 0.9154-0.9267 (1.0790-1.0924)