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Update

FX Update

Australia

The Australian Dollar has been the best performing currency over the week. With markets stale the Aussie has risen 100 points to 0.7670 against the American Dollar (USD). The RBA cash rate was announced Tuesday and was unchanged at 1.50% which was expected by markets. Growth is expected to pick up to just above 3% over 2018-2019 with unemployment expected to edge lower. First quarter GDP was expected to release at 0.9% but has come in at 1.0%, which translated is 2.8% y/y from 2.4%. These figures rallied the Aussie across the board.

New Zealand

Geopolitical woes of the past few weeks have taken a breather this week globally. Coupled with a light number of data releases internationally and locally the New Zealand Dollar has been fairly unmoved over the last 72 hours. The Global Dairy Trade Auction (GDT) provided weaker numbers with the Index falling 1.3% to US 3.487 a tonne with whole Milk also down 1.1% to US3,205 per tonne. The demand for skim milk powder rose to 0.3% to US 2,051 per tonne, the next auction is on the 19th of June. US Unemployment claims may give markets a boost creating a little volatility, but I wouldn’t bet on it.  

United States

A very quiet week for the US Dollar. ISM manufacturing printed better than the expected 57.9 releasing at 58.6 raising the US Dollar slightly higher. This release signals a 100 month streak of expansion in the manufacturing sector with a run over 50.0 highlighting continued growth. Crude oil supplies were sharply higher rising to 2.1M barrels for the week ending 1 June, markets were expecting a decline of 1.3M barrels. Crude oil is down on the news over 1.3% to trade currently at 64.87. The G7 meeting takes place today where all hell could break out with ongoing tariff talks. President Trump has been aggressive so far to good effect, but now this approach could unwind as China retaliates threatening to take back concessions. Other countries such as the EU Mexico and Canada have also announced retaliations. Trump will be pressured to “scale down” his approach.   

United Kingdom

The pound steadied earlier in the week around 1.3300 after losing ground from 1.3400 levels. Construction PMI and Services PMI printed better than expected boosting the Pound across the board. Services PMI figures have not painted the real picture with issues stemming from struggling retailers with the 4th decline in new orders over the last 5 months. The pound has continued its momentum leading into the last few hours of trading for the week but we expect some downside to follow. With recent UK data releasing well lately we have seen the GBP come off the low of 1.3200 in late May, but with Brexit talks on the horizon we may see markets focus on Brexit unfavorably and the Pound lose support. June 28-29th is when the European Council summit meet next to discuss all aspects of Brexit negotiations.

Europe

Hawkish comments were spoken by ECB members as markets awaits next week’s ECB meeting. It was noted that inflation outlook is stable and a reasonable assumption this could signal the end of the QE program soon. The Euro jumped to 1.1840 on the news, this being a considerable rally from the weekly open of 1.1650 and the low of 1.1520 from last week. Wiping away earlier May losses it is showing a bullish breakout above key area of resistance of 1.1700. The US Dollar continues to weaken off after weeks of strong support, the question appears to be whether the Fed will raise rates a total of 3 times in 2018 or 4. The ECB rate is announced on Thursday and should remain unchanged.    

Japan

The Japanese Yen (JPY) has largely been sold off against its main rivals. Against the US Dollar it currently trades at 110.00 after being at 110.26 Thursday. Japanese wages showed no growth in April highlighting consumer spending could be light for a while to come. With wage growth a topic of concern for the Bank of Japan (BoJ) the 2% inflation target may stay elusive for some time. With a downward revised 0.7% for March and 0.8% for May these figures will need to improve. Friday on the calendar we see the Current Account which is expected to print at 2.1T up on May’s result of 1.77T.

Canada

With a lack of any news locally or Internationally for the Canadian Dollar (CAD) it has traded predominantly sideways. Against the US Dollar (USD) we have seen it travel to 1.3050 and down to 1.2870 in thin markets before returning to the weekly open of 1.2950. It’s all a bit of a non-event to be honest. Crude Oil inventories were up as was the Crude oil price to 65.02 but generally it’s the quietest week we have seen for some time. With analysts forecasted volumes to be -1.3M barrels, crude supplies jumped to 2.1M barrels. Canadian Trade Balance published at -1.9B instead of the predicted -3.4B boosting the CAD to 1.2870 a monthly low. The G7 meeting is in full swing today where tariffs and NAFTA discussions will be debated.  

Foreign Exchange

FX Update

Australia

The Australian Dollar (AUD) was sold off over the week in unfavourable risk conditions as markets took to the safe haven products due to the fallout in the Italian Elections. Against the US Dollar it has reached a two-week low of 0.7475. Risk returned to currencies Thursday with the easing of the Italian Election headlines and the Aussie was back in business appreciating across the board along with higher equities, Crude Oil prices and commodities. Quarterly Private Capital Expenditure printed lower than the predicted 0.8% at 0.4% and took the Aussie lower off its highs. The all-important US Non-Farm Payroll numbers print at the end of the week and will offer a further gauge on whether the Fed will hike rates on June 14. Chinese manufacturing figures for May have printed at 51.9 versus the 51.4 expected showing a solid result which will excite the Aussies.

New Zealand

The Reserve Bank Governor Adrian Orr spoke on Wednesday and commented he was pleased that credit growth has slowed, but not for long enough and the banking sector could withstand a relatively significant decline in house prices. NZ Financial Stability report which was published on Wednesday, and is released twice yearly, highlighted the economy is “sound and efficient” – dairy farms need to reduce debt levels, NZ banks should \reduce their international exposure to risk and the RBNZ Loan to value ratio restrictions are unchanged with household debt rising less than it has on previous years. ANZ business confidence dropped for May with a net 27% of businesses pessimistic about the year ahead, down 4 clicks from the April figures. Markets awaits US Non-Farm payroll at week end. Read more

Markets

Italian Elections Spook Markets

Market Overview:

Markets closed lower to end the week as investors took on less risk. Geopolitical issues affected currency markets with North Korea concerns rearing its ugly head once again. The on again off again June 12thmeeting between President Trump and Kim Jong seems to be back to track less than 24 hours after Trump’s decision to cancel it. The President initially upsetting Kim Jong Un after sending him a letter outlining his issues for cancelling. Kim Jong Un retaliated with a “nuclear to nuclear showdown” with the US. Trump released a statement saying “talks are very productive” and the summit could still take place on June 12. The minutes from the Fed meeting confirmed the broad view that they would be gradually increasing rates but reiterated growth in the economy would need to be a lot stronger to allow the Fed to hike faster than the prescribed current 0.25% per quarter. The US Dollar Index is trading at 94.00 just off the weekly high of 94.25 with equities stabilizing but they remain bullish. Crude oil has had a good run this year, but we think the downside is limited to around 67.00 which could be tested in the following weeks. With geopolitical problems such as Venezuela in play in a complete shambles, their production numbers will continue to decline over time. This will impact the associated currency the Canadian Dollar trading at levels around 1.3000 currently we may see further upside develop to 1.3600. The EURO gaped higher on the weekly open up 30 points to 1.1680 with the populist parties failing to form a government. Italy’s president Sergio Mattarella boycotted attempts to form western Europe’s first populist government so in time new elections may will be held. US monthly core durable goods released on Saturday NZ time at 0.9% well up on the expected 0.5% and last month’s 0.0% result pushing buyers into the greenback and showing a resilient demand for April. US Bank Holiday Monday kept markets quiet ahead of US Non-Farm Payroll figures later in the week. Locally we have ANZ Business confidence Wednesday and the G7 meeting taking place in British Columbia. Read more

FX news

FX Update

Australia

The Australian Dollar (AUD) has remained fairly resilient over the week holding above the weekly open of 0.7520. Receiving a bounce late Wednesday during US session back to 0.7600 after RBA governor Lowe’s speech earlier suggested that the central bank would focus on rising Chinese debt levels and the effect this could have on the Australian Economy. The assistant governor Bullock is to speak later in the week in Amsterdam but until then markets will be hanging off every word spoken in regards to Trump and North Korea issues for guidance to further direction.

New Zealand

Wednesdays Trade Balance figures printed higher than expected at 263M with an expected surplus of 200M.  These figures were considerably better than the April figures which were -86k. April exports of NZD 5.05B come in higher than the estimated 4.85B. Fruit exports were among the best resulting in a rise of 51% to 615M, led by a rise in quantity of 61% in kiwifruit. Markets will be led by risk sentiment towards the end of the week, with prospects of the kiwi trading lower against its peers if a risk averse sentiment continues. Read more

FX

FX Update: US and China Declare Trade Truce

Market Overview:

A stronger fiscal position was the key point from the New Zealand Budget last week read by the NZ finance Minister Grant Robertson. Health was the main winner receiving 360M in additional funding over the next 4 years. 100M was put aside for District Health Boards to call on for extra infrastructure including rebuilding aged hospitals. The New Zealand Dollar was stable throughout the reading but drifted lower towards the end the week against the greenback back to 0.6900. The US Dollar (USD) has continued its run pushing higher against all its rivals as the strongest performer now over the last two to three weeks. The US Dollar index naturally has climbed higher to 93.83 inching closer to the 101.00 of April 2017. Risk markets should do well for at least the first half of this week as the trade talks between the world’s two biggest countries China and the US have been halted. US Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin said the US trade war with China is “on hold”. While they work on a larger picture trade deal they have agreed on a truce. This should fundamentally change the mood in the markets starting with the Asian equities as they are directly correlated. Steel and aluminum tariffs earlier this year developed into a complete shambles. The 10 year treasury yields are likely to fall from the seven year high of 3.13% achieved on Friday. Oil prices have been come down slightly from the high of around 72.40 (3.5 year high) last week, supported by falling Venezuelan production and solid growth demand and tensions coming from an unsettled Middle East. President Trump has ordered a fresh investigation as to any FBI/DOJ infiltration that was done during the presidential campaign for political purposes. This includes the Obama administration. This is a side-line to the ongoing investigation as to whether Russia interfered with the 2016 campaign and if the President was seen to unlawfully obstruct the enquiry. The Royal wedding between Prince Harry and Meghan Markle went off without a hitch, the reception was a “hell of a bash”, James Corden was MC with Elton John banging out the classics. All and all it seemed extremely well organised showcasing what the Poms are capable of. Read more

FX

FX Update

Australia

The Australian Dollar took on losses after the RBA meeting minutes suggesting the same rhetoric. Currently holding at support levels against the crosses after Chinese data published down. Chinese Retails Sales came in at 9.4% missing expectations of 10.00% and Industrial production came in at 7% a tad higher than the predicted 6.3%. The Australian Dollar may remain under pressure in the coming weeks after the RBA’s dovish view seeps into market sentiment with rates expected to remain unchanged for a long period. Overseas risks are the main concern overseeing a general pessimistic view.

New Zealand

The New Zealand Budget – called the “Rebuild Budget” was perceived as being positive for the New Zealand people. The kiwi traded just above 0.6900 at the start of the Budget read by Finance Minister Grant Robertson. Budget surpluses are in store over the next 3 odd years with growth expected to be above current estimates- 2019 revised to 3.8% from 3.4% and 2020 revised to 3.00% from 2.9%. Health was the biggest winner receiving 3.2B in total funding with an additional 850M in capital spending over the next four years. The highlights: free GP visits will continue with more community card discounts: a govt surplus of 3.1B for 2019 is expected to rise to 7B in 2022: 100M is to be put aside for the next America’s Cup. A tax crackdown is expected to raise funds of 183M over the next 3 years with the “Amazon tax” to fall back on. US Dollar weakness across the board during the budget also contributed to the NZ Dollar spiking back above 0.6940, by the time the Budget has finished the kiwi was trading back at 0.6900 against the US Dollar. Read more

fx

FX Update – Trump Pulls From Iran Nuclear Agreement

Market Overview:

With the US pulling from the Iran deal this has put pressure on European countries which still want the deal to stay in place. China, France, Russia, Britain and Germany all have expressed commitment to stay in the deal. Germany in particular has said they would try to persuade the US government to continue with it. On Sunday the US government threatened to bring about new sanctions on these countries who currently do business with Iran. The US are still hopeful that they and their allies could strike up a new deal with Iran. The US national security adviser John Bolton said a possible deal could be made but this depends on the “conduct of the other governments”. The withdraw by the US has raised the risk of further conflict in the Middle East with a lack of current stability there. Currency markets had an uneventful close the week, the US Dollar is still the currency of choice, then it’s a distant second to the Canadian Dollar. Crude Oil prices soured based on uneasiness with the Iran situation raising to a high of 71.71 before settling around 70.70 at the weekly close. The US Dollar Index spiked to 92.55 showing the wide ranging support for the greenback. Equities remain strong as well with the DOW index coming off a weekly low of 24200 to close around 24830. The RBA kept the benchmark rate unchanged at 1.5% extending its record breaking run and the Bank of England (BoE) left their benchmark cash rate unchanged at 0.50% in a 2-7 vote as markets expected, although the market saw the BoE comments as generally dovish after the pricing out a rate hike for 2018. This Thursday we have the NZ Budget, this will set the tone for the NZ Dollar for a while to come. With business sentiment at a low since the Labour government took office Ardern is mindful of this while the budget will aim to change people’s perception that the country’s economic tender situation is a little more rosy. We can expect to see a homeless package of $100M come in along with a health boost of over 8B over the next 4 years. Read more

RBNZ

RBNZ Update

The New Zealand dollar is weaker this morning in the wake of the RBNZ’s Monetary Policy Statement. They left the cash rate unchanged at 1.75%
The NZD has fallen across the board, down around half a cent against the USD, and AUD.
The Central bank has slightly downgraded their forecasted inflation rate in June 2019 to 1.6% from 1.8% prior. They said they expect to keep the OCR (Official Cash Rate) at this expansionary level for a considerable period of time.

RBNZ and BOE

RBNZ and BOE Rate Announcement Focus

Market Overview:

On the 2nd of April 2015 an agreement was put into place between Iran and a group of super power countries. The agreement essentially was to put in place with limitations to Iran producing nuclear weapons. In exchange the 6 countries involved Russia, France, China, UK, US and Germany would lift economic sanctions. President Trump has come forward recently and stated he would not support such an agreement as Iran has broken the agreement by not allowing international access to inspectors among other reasons. He has called for new sanctions on Iran and has requested congress to instigate changes. Iran’s foreign policy head Federica Mogherini has said there has not been any violation of the agreement and stated the agreement could not be negotiated. Over the week we will watch how things develop here but news alone around this could rattle markets and has the makings off investors reaching for safe haven products. Non-Farm Payroll figures disappointing to the downside Saturdays morning coming in with an increase of 164,000 for April but down on the expected 190,000 number. The US unemployment rate dropped to 3.9% from 4.00% initially increasing the value of the US Dollar but markets soon retraced to pre- announcement levels across the board. The US Dollar index remains strong at 92.55 with risk sentiment benefiting equities and commodity markets all closing up over 1%. The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) will announce their cash rate Thursday with no change from 1.75% expected. The Bank of England (BOE) will also announce their cash rate Thursday night NZ time and will no doubt leave the rate at 0.5% unchanged. A couple of weeks back we were pricing in a 85% certainty of a hike to 0.75% but the statistic is now under 10% with a round of disappointing economic data showing struggles with falling inflation statistics.  Read more

NZD

NZD Eyes 0.7000 Key Support

Market Overview:

US President Donald Trump threatened to close down the federal Government in September this year if congress didn’t approve further funding for his wall to be built on the border of Mexico. Trump will no-doubt run into issues when his idea won’t be supported by fellow Republicans. He signed a Trillion Dollar spending bill which will keep the government funded through to the end of September 2018. You will remember how the government briefly shut down in January 2018 over immigration differences then. The US Dollar has surged of late with home sales and services PMI both supportive publishing well above expectations earlier helping the US Dollar to advance over all the main G10 currencies. Everything of note recently has published well for the Americans including upside on inflation which should lead the Federal Reserve to hike rates three more times this year. The next announcement is this Thursday morning NZ time along with the usual monetary statement. Consensus is that the cash rate will for now stay at 1.75%. The US Dollar index firmly rejected a 92.00 handle late last week along with the 10 year yield coming off its four year high of 3.035% to close the week at 2.96%. The Dow came off its high of 24400 mid last week and could remain under pressure if the 10 year US bond rises further.  The US cannabis index jumped more than 15% the biggest one-day gain of the year based on a shift in US cannabis policy. President Trump signed a letter in support of letting each US State decide how to regulate marijuana, in a statement protecting state cannabis rights. This could send cannabis stocks soaring to all-time highs. The Marijuana Index is currently trading at 88.81 and has setup to potentially be one of the best products in 2018 to invest in. This week we have NZ unemployment rate publishing which should offer the NZD support above crucial 0.7000 against the greenback if last month’s drop of 0.2% is anything to go off. Brexit news out overnight is suggesting a deal to exit the EU is becoming less likely with the Cross party amendment passed with support of 19 Tory Rebels winning by a majority of 91 votes. Ministers have warned that should government vote against the deal by negotiators, Britain would leave the bloc with no agreement. Read more