FX News

FX News

NZD/USD Transfer

Profit taking on short positions halted the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) from further declines Monday momentarily after the currency came off Friday and into the weekend to 0.5930 areas against the US Dollar (USD). Attacks on Israel from Iran air strikes sent markets into a spin as we all wondered how Israel would counter. With prices down further overnight around 0.5900 heading into Tuesday this represents a huge 2024 low pushing past the prior low at 0.5940 after a higher than forecast March US Retail Sales print. This week’s NZ CPI should reflect a decent dip from 4.7% from 4.3%, anything lower and we could see more downside moves in the kiwi.

Current Level: 0.5904
Support: 0.5800
Resistance: 0.6000
Last week’s range: 0.5933- 0.6082

 

FX News

FX update: risk sinks the antipodeans

Market Overview

• Risk markets have all traded lower in response to the recent attacks on Israel by Iran. Its certainly a sensitive time in history for geopolitics after Iran launched an air strike attack on Israel over the weekend. US president Biden saying the US wouldn’t support an Israeli counterattack against Iran.
• The US Dollar vs the Japanese Yen is making new 30-year highs.
• Gold has risen to 2,380 in the past few days with expectations of the precious metal souring to 2,700 by year end.
• New Zealand Services PMI has contracted in March, the index 47.5 vs 53.0 prior.
• Analysts are suggesting the European Central Bank (ECB) may cut interest rates as early as May 6th.
• US Rate cuts in July are priced in at 66% based on the uncertainty with inflation.
• New Zealand inflation for the 1st quarter ending March is due on Wednesday and is expected to rise 0.7%, this would drop the year-on-year figure to 4.3% from 4.74%, the lowest inflation rate since 2021.
• New Zealand medium house prices March +7.4% up on February.
• The US Dollar (USD) has been the strongest currency this week while the weakest currency is the New Zealand Dollar (NZD).

FX News

Calendar of Economic Releases

Tuesday April 16th
12:30am USD Core Retail Sales m/m
Forecast 0.50%
Previous 0.30%
12:30am USD Empire State Manufacturing Index
Forecast -5.2
Previous -20.9
12:30am USD Retail Sales m/m
Forecast 0.40%
Previous 0.60%
2:00pm CNY Industrial Production y/y
Forecast 6.00%
Previous 7.00%
2:00pm CNY GDP q/y
Forecast 4.80%
Previous 5.20%
2:00pm CNY Retail Sales y/y
Forecast 5.10%
Previous 5.50%
6:00pm GBP Claimant Count Change
Forecast 17.2K
Previous 16.8K
6:00pm GBP Average Earnings Index 3m/y
Forecast 5.50%
Previous 5.60% Read more

FX News

AUD/USD Transfer

The Australian Dollar (AUD) edged higher to a 4-week high of 0.6644 against the US Dollar (USD) in early week moves as risk sentiment improved. As the US Federal Reserve delivered their inflation report prices in the cross plummeted 120 points to 0.6500 levels with markets not happy about the uptick in inflation from 3.4% y/y at 3.5%. This is the third straight month CPI has increased above expectations. The Fed now will dial back interest rate cuts predicted earlier this year most likely from June to September. Inflation cooled at the end of 2023, but the Fed now seems less confident they will see levels around 2.0% targets in 2024 making for a “higher for longer” theme.

The current interbank midrate is: AUDUSD 0.6540

The interbank range this week has been: AUDUSD 0.6497- 0.6643

 

 

 

FX News

NZD/GBP Transfer

The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) extended moves from last week’s 0.4725 ( 2.1160) against the English Pound (GBP) posting a fresh 3 week high of 0.4770 (2.0860). The RBNZ kept interest rates on hold at 5.5% Wednesday pushing the kiwi lower to 0.4765 (2.0990). The central bank saying a restrictive policy was still required in efforts to drag down inflation back to a 1-3% target band. The December quarter CPI released at 4.7% but the RBNZ still has a way to go as they remain cautious in the face of stubborn inflation. Personally, we believe the bank should be cutting rates in the late May meeting.

The current interbank midrate is: NZDGBP 0.4778 GBPNZD 2.0929

The interbank range this week has been: NZDGBP 0.4754- 0.4794 GBPNZD 2.0856- 2.1033

 

 

 

 

 

FX News

NZD/USD Transfer

The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) shrugged off last week’s losses pushing back above 0.6000 posting a new high midweek of 0.6080 against the US Dollar (USD). This little run up wasn’t to last falling sharply as US inflation data came in, the cross retreating to 0.5965 levels. CPI came in higher than forecast of 3.4% y/y at 3.5%. This is the third straight month prices have increased above expectations. The Fed now will dial back interest rate cuts predicted earlier this year. Inflation cooled at the end of 2023, but the Fed now seems less confident they will see levels around 2.0% targets in 2024 making for a slower pace of cuts. Earlier the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) held interest rates unchanged at 5.5% as widely expected the 6th meeting in a row. The RBNZ said they were confident by leaving rates unchanged will return the inflation rate back to a 1-3% target band within 2024. We are a little surprised at the optimism showed by the RBNZ with growth weak and unemployment about to plunge. Overall direction in the cross is still to the downside.

The current interbank midrate is: NZDUSD 0.6001

The interbank range this week has been: NZDUSD 0.5964- 0.6082

 

 

 

 

 

FX News

AUD/GBP Transfer

With a lack of meaningful data publishing the British Pound (GBP), Australian Dollar (AUD) cross has been affected mostly over the week by US Data ques. The GBP drifted lower off the open extending last week’s move s to 0.5240 (1.9090) before reversing on hotter than expected US inflation data reaching 0.5185 (1.9290). US inflation released higher than expected pushing risk flow currencies into the red as the USD rallied. Next week’s UK CPI y/y read should throw up volatility with predictions of a drop to 3.1% y/y from the current 3.4%. The pair is still trading in a bull trend from the low at 0.5110 (1.9570) early March.

The current interbank midrate is: AUDGBP 0.5206 GBPAUD 1.9208

The interbank range this week has been: AUDGBP 0.5184- 0.5237 GBPAUD 1.9093- 1.9288

 

 

 

 

FX News

Calendar of Economic Releases

Wednesday April 10
2:00pm NZD Official Cash Rate
Forecast 5.50%
Previous 5.50%
2:00pm NZD RBNZ Rate Statement
10th-15th CNY New Loans
Forecast 3700B
Previous 1450B

Thursday April 11th
12:30am USD Core CPI m/m
Forecast 0.30%
Previous 0.40%
12:30am USD CPI m/m
Forecast 0.30%
Previous 0.40%
12:30am USD CPI y/y
Forecast 3.40%
Previous 3.20%
1:45am CAD BOC Monetary Policy Report
1:45am CAD BOC Rate Statement
1:45am CAD Overnight Rate
Forecast 5.00%
Previous 5.00%
2:30am CAD BOC Press Conference
5:01am USD 10-y Bond Auction 4.17|2.5
6:00am USD FOMC Meeting Minutes
1:30pm CNY CPI y/y
Forecast 0.40%
Previous 0.70%
1:30pm CNY PPI y/y
Forecast -2.80%
Previous -2.70% Read more

FX News

AUD/GBP Transfer

The Australian Dollar (AUD) punched through 0.5195 (1.9250) resistance in overnight trading vs the British Pound (GBP) on its way to post 0.5225 (1.9135) an 11-week high. A short week meant we have seen little meaningful data published in the cross. Last week’s Aussie CPI release saw a pause to inflationary pressures, the RBA not to happy with the result. While the move from the central bank is likely to be a cut this won’t happen for some time. Wage growth which is closely corelated with inflation which sits at 4.2% needs to start tracking higher. We need to see a break back below 0.5200 (1.9250) to confirm further downside in the pair.

The current interbank midrate is: AUDGBP 0.5206 GBPAUD 1.9208

The interbank range this week has been: AUDGBP 0.5161- 0.5226 GBPAUD 1.9133- 1.9375