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Price stalled out midweek around 0.6400 at key resistance in the New Zealand (NZD), US Dollar (USD) cross falling towards 0.6230 into late Thursday sessions. Soft equity markets took the kiwi down across the board, correcting back to a pivotal support area around 0.6220. New Zealand CPI published at 6.0% in June y/y after 5.9% was forecast, this is down from May’s 6.7% which is positive but not good enough according to pundits. Fuel prices have eased 15% over the year while offsetting vegetable prices up 23.3% had the biggest impact. The “on hold” RBNZ policy may be tested at the August 16th meeting. We suspect the pair may push towards 0.6300 prior to the weekly close.

The current interbank midrate is: NZDUSD 0.6231
The interbank range this week has been: NZDUSD 0.6212- 0.6368

The Australian Dollar (AUD) recovered off 1.0740 (0.9310) areas early week to take back losses against the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) with price reaching 1.0900 (0.9175) this morning. NZ CPI came in at 6.0% after 5.9% was predicted, down from May’s 6.7%, the lowest read since the last quarter of 2021. However the release only helped the kiwi momentarily with Aussie momentum restored post Australian Job’s data printing. The unemployment rate stayed unchanged at 3.5%- the lowest level in nearly 50 years. The participation rate has also been extremely good over the last few months at 66.8 in June, just 0.1% lower from the May peak. The chances of an RBA hike now at the next policy meeting on 1 August is around 20%. Next week’s Australian CPI y/y data will capture attention, anything north of 6.7% should guarantee further buying in the AUD.

The current interbank midrate is: NZDAUD 0.9194 AUDNZD 1.0873
The interbank range this week has been: NZDAUD 0.9175- 0.9326 AUDNZD 1.0722- 1.0899

Over the week the British Pound (GBP) has continued to give back gains against the Australian Dollar (AUD) extending last week’s run from 1.9380 (0.5160) to 1.8560 (0.5390) into early morning trade. UK inflation printed positive at 7.9% year on year in June compared to expectations of 8.2%, the largest decline in two months and the smallest level since March 2022. Aussie job’s numbers remain tight in June with the unemployment rate unmoved at 3.5%. The economy added 32,000 jobs to the workforce as the participation rate stayed at a record high 66.8%. The RBA may consider raising rates in August but would be dependent on incoming data. Certainly, the Aussie has been boosted on prospects of a higher cash rate.

The current interbank midrate is: AUDGBP 0.5263 GBPAUD 1.8996
The interbank range this week has been: AUDGBP 0.5189- 0.5305 GBPAUD 1.8848- 1.9269

The Australian Dollar (AUD), Euro (EUR) traded to pivotal levels this morning reaching 0.6130 (1.6320) representing heavy resistance with the cross threatening this zone on several occasions this year. A break below (0.6120 (1.6350) could signal further downside for the Aussie. Central bank policy divergence with the ECB still considering further rate hikes on the 28th of July and beyond with inflation expected to be high until 2025 should bring further buying in the EUR.

Current Level: 1.6488 (0.6065)
Resistance: 0.6300 (1.6740)
Support: 0.5975 (1.5870)
Last Weeks Range: 0.6052-0.6161 (1.6230-1.6522)

The British Pound (GBP) managed to clock another high against the Australian Dollar (AUD) mid last week of 0.5160 (1.9390) before dropping to around 0.5230 (1.9130) at the close of the week. This represents the lowest the pair has travelled since 3 May 2020. UK inflation is the key data to publish Wednesday and should reflect a softening theme. Certainly, this will give us clues how the BoE hike at their next meeting August 3rd. Aussie jobs numbers also publish Thursday with the unemployment rate expected to hold at 3.60%.

Current Level: 0.5213 (1.9182)
Resistance: 0.5410 (1.9340)
Support: 0.5170 (1.8485)
Last Weeks Range: 0.5157-0.5260 (1.9011-1.9390)

The Australian Dollar (AUD) underperformed Monday extending declines to 0.6790 against the US Dollar (USD) as risk markets suffered. Data reporting a weaker Chinese economic situation spooked markets overnight. Quarterly growth came in at 0.8% after a 2.2% release in Q1, also the y/y growth forecast was downgraded from 7.1% to 6.3%. Next week’s Fed decision could start to pressure the AUD as expectations increase for the Fed to hike again, core inflation is declining, however jobs data is still tight worrying the central bank. On the chart we see a “fib” setup with support at 0.6800 offering a floor of sorts.

Current Level: 0.6820
Resistance: 0.6890
Support: 0.6490
Last Weeks Range: 0.6622-0.6842

Risk sentiment took its toll on the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) off the weekly open dropping to 0.5630 (1.7770) against the Euro (EUR) as it continued downside moves. The technical bear channel which has been held since March 2022 looks well formed to keep the kiwi on the backfoot for a while yet. Especially when central bank policy supports further buying in the EUR based on more ECB tightening required. The EUR should stay well supported on dips and could retest the support area around 0.5400 (1.8500) over the coming weeks. NZ quarterly inflation Wednesday should tick lower.

Current Level: 0.5630 (1.7761)
Resistance: 0.5820 (1.8020)
Support: 0.5550 (1.7180)
Last Weeks Range: 0.5610-0.5713 (1.7502-1.7824)

Price action in the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) continues to track on a downward trajectory against the English Pound (GBP) following a series of long-term lower lows and lower highs. This week the kiwi is down again on risk sentiment as Chinese data has weighed on risk conditions and the recent RBNZ policy pause. This week’s inflation data for both countries will be key with both predicted to print lower. Any forthcoming hike by the Bank of England (BoE) will be determined by the number. Solid resistance at 0.4880 (2.0500) suggests we could see a retest of 0.4785 (2.0900) over the week.

Current Level: 0.4839 (2.0665)
Resistance: 0.5060 (2.0900)
Support: 0.4785 (1.9760)
Last Weeks Range: 0.4780-0.4882 (2.0481-2.0917)

The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) clocked a fresh 8-week high Monday reaching 0.9330 (1.0720) against the Australian Dollar (AUD) before giving back gains to 0.9275 (1.0780). The kiwi has been held up mostly by last week’s hawkish RBNZ policy hold. The RBA pause at 4.10% will likely extend into coming months as inflation risks are likely to be positive. All eyes will be on NZ CPI data Wednesday with a predicted drop to the headline inflation figure possibly to 5.2% from 6.7%.We may see the NZD weaken off towards the week’s end.

Current Level: 0.9285 (1.0762)
Resistance: 0.9460 (1.1050)
Support: 0.9050 (1.0570)
Last Weeks Range: 0.9234-0.9324 (1.0725-1.0829)

The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) came up against stiff resistance Monday at 0.6390 against the US Dollar (USD) after last week’s rally from around 0.6200 levels. The run up to current levels looks overbought signalling downside moves have come into play. A break above 0.6400 would be needed to cement further upside confidence in higher traffic. The Fed pause is still uncertain with some analysts suggesting a 25-point hike on the 27th of July is a done deal? Soft Chinese data also to blame. The kiwi however could be well supported by stronger risk over the coming days. NZ CPI data prints tomorrow and should represent a much lower headline figure somewhere around 5.4%. Buyers of USD should consider these levels.

Current Level: 0.6333
Resistance: 0.6400
Support: 0.6000
Last Weeks Range: 0.6165-0.6411