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RBNZ leaves the cash rate on hold but leaves the door open for higher rates at some stage.

Written by Sam Coxhead on October 27th, 2011.      0 comments

9:26 AM (NZT) The RBNZ just left the cash rate unchanged as expected, the NZD has jumped a touch across the board as the final sentence in the small prepared statement has caught the market a little off guard.
After acknowledging that Europe and the wider global outlook remains uncertain, Dr Bollard stated that the earthquake repairs and reconstruction in Canterbury are still likely to provide significant impetus for demand.
The final paragraph is copied here.
“Given the ongoing global economic and financial risks, it remains prudent to continue to keep the OCR on hold at 2.5 percent for now. However, if global developments have only a mild impact on the New Zealand economy, it is likely that gradually increasing pressure on domestic resources will require future OCR increases.”
The uncertainty continued overnight and most investors remained on the sidelines. The EU summit was mildly positive. Whilst no definitive numbers or dates were announced it looks like they have coordinated on two of the three central issue. Bank capitalization ratios will have to be around 9%, the European Financial Stability fund will have the fire power of around one trillion EURO’s, but the hurdle remains agreement on the size of Greek debt haircuts to be made.
The slightly more positive news in the US continues in the economic data with better durable goods(big ticket items) numbers and the best improvement in new home sales in five months.
So overall the  trading in the last 24 hours has seen mainly movement within recent ranges.
          Past 24 hours
  Current level Pre-RBNZ  % Chge since RBNZ   Low High
NZD/USD 0.7990 0.7937 0.66%   0.7915 0.8002
AUD/USD 1.0392 1.0392 0.00%   1.0317 1.0458
NZD/AUD 0.7689 0.7638 0.66%   0.7609 0.7696
AUD/NZD 1.3006 1.3092 -0.67%   1.2994 1.3142
NZD/GBP 0.5005 0.4973 0.64%   0.4960 0.4998
NZD/EUR 0.5750 0.5710 0.70%   0.5702 0.5752
NZD/YEN 60.97 60.80 0.28%   60.08 60.71
NZD/CAD 0.8035 0.7980 0.68%   0.7976 0.8108