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RBA Quarterly Monetary Policy Statement points towards hikes

Written by Sam Coxhead on May 6th, 2011.      0 comments

12:30 PM (AEST) The Reserve Bank of Australia have just released their quarterly Monetary Policy Statement.  The main theme to come through is the fact that there has been an increase in the underlying inflationary pressure. This points towards the fact that they are poised to hikes rates “at some stage” as they put it. The market has rightly again bought forward its expectations for a hike after it eased them back over the last couple of days.
 
The timing seems to be the key to progress from here. Currently the interest rate futures market has about 30% chance of a hike in June and 64% chance of a 25pts hike in July. The more the market prices the hike into the near contracts , the more positive for the AUD the reaction will be.
 
The AUD has reacted positively to this report and has bounced well over 100pts off the overnight lows as the metals markets have bounced as Asia has come in.
 
If you would like to read the lengthy statement in its entirety, please click on this link, it is well worth a read. http://www.rba.gov.au/publications/smp/2011/may/html/index.html
 
NZD/USD .7910
AUD/USD 1.0728
NZD/AUD .7373
AUD/NZD 1.3563
NZD/GBP .4821
NZD/EUR .5428
NZD/JPY 63.65
NZD/CAD .7627
 
 

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