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NZD and AUD cross pairs of interest:

Written by Sam Coxhead on April 13th, 2012.      0 comments

6:30 PM(NZT)
NZDUSD
This pair saw mostly quiet sideways trade for the first half of the week before the wider market risk appetite increased. Certainly the FED lip service towards further stimulation, and strong equity performance saw the NZ dollar in high demand at times. Consolidation through the .8300 level will be the first test if the direction is higher from here, but certainly further appreciation from current levels will be hard fought. NZ inflation will be the New Zealand domestic focus of next week.
 
The current interbank midrate is:                                                            NZDUSD .8293 
                                                                                         
The interbank range so far this week to date has been:                 NZDUSD .8117 - .8321

NZDAUD (AUDNZD)
This pair has traded in its expected range throughout the course of the week so far. Following yesterdays stronger than expected Australian employment report the NZ dollar immediately saw some solid pressure be pushed to its lows for the week. The NZD pressure did not last long and the demand for the NZD picked up again. This afternoon it was the turn of the AUD to come under pressure as the weak Chinese GDP number impacted the AUD more so than the NZD. The pairing is now close to the NZD high for the week, and topside moves from here will be far harder fought as the solid .8000(1.2500) looms. This level should contain the NZD appreciation for the time being at least.
 
The current interbank midrate is:                                                            NZDAUD .7982                            AUDNZD 1.2528
                                                               
The interbank range so far this week to date has been:                 NZDAUD .7885 - .7982             AUDNZD  1.2528 - 1.2682

NZDGBP (GBPNZD)
This pair continued to trade in its recent and contained range for the most part this week. It was not until Thursday when the global appetite for risk picked up, and the NZD broke its shackles and put pressure on the GBP. With the disappointing Chinese GDP number fresh in the headlines, it will be interesting to see if the NZD can consolidate its recent gains. The lead with continue to come from the wider market risk appetite, with next weeks data in both economies unlikely to provide to much in the way of action.
 
The current interbank midrate is:                                                            NZDGBP .5201                               GBPNZD 1.9227
                                                               
The interbank range so far this week to date has been:                 NZDGBP .5121 - .5213                GBPNZD 1.9183 – 1.9527

NZDEUR (EURNZD)
It has been an interesting week for this pair. The big move has been higher by the NZD in the latter part of the week as the strange wave of risk appetite hot the wider markets. Expect any further appreciation by the NZD to be much harder fought from the current levels, and consolidation above .6300 (below 1.5870) seems unlikely. Next week the focus will come from the NZ inflation data on Thursday, albeit unlikely to provide major action. The wider market risk appetite will be the main driver one again. Current levels again offer great value buying of EURO with NZ dollars.
 
The current interbank midrate is:                                                            NZDEUR .6294                              EURNZD 1.5888
                                                               
The interbank range so far this week to date has been:                 NZDEUR .6219 - .6307                EURNZD 1.5855 – 1.6080

NZDCAD
It has been a slightly strange week for this pairing, as it has for the wider market in general. The NZD has outperformed the CAD in what has been grinding appreciation. The apparent risk appetite from mid week on provided the surprise, but this should taper of now with the advent of the weak Chinese GDP data. Expect any further gains from the NZD to be much harder fought in the short term. Next week the respective inflation numbers will be the focus, with New Zealand’s on Thursday and Canada’s on Friday. The BOC will also be followed, but more for their comments on the economy, than for any expected change in monetary policy on Wednesday.
 
The current interbank midrate is:                                                            NZDCAD .8253                              
                                                               
The interbank range so far this week to date has been:                 NZDCAD .8127 - .8276               
NZDYEN
After initially seeing pressure on the NZD to start the week the turnaround for this pairing has been quite remarkable. It was all driven by wider market risk appetite and once it turned the NZD was in high demand, and the YEN under considerable pressure. The upper resistance looks to be in place at 67.50, so expect any further appreciation from the NZD to be much harder fought. The weaker than expected Chinese GDP definitely tapered market enthusiasm and its will be interesting to see what plays out next week. The NZ inflation number on Thursday will be the primary economic data focus for this pair.
 
The current interbank midrate is:                                                            NZDYEN 67.25                              
                                                               
The interbank range so far this week to date has been:                 NZDYEN 65.46 – 67.48               
AUDUSD
This week has seen some sharp moves for this pairing. The week started with the pair testing support at 1.0220 before the stronger than expected Australian employment report was released. Subsequent to that the global equity markets started to rally and the rumours of strong Chinese GDP numbers gained some real traction. These factors saw the AUD in big demand, and have help pare back expectations of cuts from the RBA a little. The AUD appreciation was stymied today when the Chinese GDP data was weaker than expected. The pairing has tested the initial support at 1.0380, and it has held for the time being. Current levels look like reasonable value buying of US dollars when the wider market fragility is assessed.  
 
The current interbank midrate is:                                                            AUDUSD  1.0395                                                                                         
 
The interbank range so far this week to date has been:                 AUDUSD 1.0222 – 1.0454

AUDGBP (GBPAUD)
The action for this pairing started with the stronger than expected Australian employment report. This positive news coincided with stronger stock markets and ill founded rumours of stronger than expected GDP numbers in China. Today’s weak Chinese GDP numbers has seen the AUD give up a chunk of its gained ground. Expect any further topside efforts to be harder fought from current levels for the AUD.  The expectations for the RBA’s next monetary policy decision will be the primary driver in the coming weeks.
 
The current interbank midrate is:                                                            AUDGBP  .6515                  GBPAUD 1.5349                                                                                         
 
The interbank range so far this week to date has been:                 AUDGBP .6447 – .6551   GBPAUD 1.5264 – 1.5511

AUDEUR (EURAUD)
This pair has seen periods of strong AUD demand since the better than expected Australian employment data. This strong report coincided with stronger equity markets and woefully incorrect market rumours of a 9.0%+ Chinese GDP number. The AUD dominance was stopped in its tracks today by the weak 8.1% GDP  release in China. Any further AUD appreciation from current levels should be much harder fought from the current levels. The RBA monetary policy expectations are going to be the key over the coming weeks. Expect the volatility to continue into the inflation number at the end of the month. The .7830 (1.2770) is the initial target for any EURO appreciation.  
 
The current interbank midrate is:                                               AUEUR  .7889                   EURAUD  1.2676                                                                                     
 
The interbank range so far this week to date has been:   AUDEUR .7818 – .7926   EURAUD 1.2616 – 1.2790
  
AUDCAD
It has been an interesting week for this pairing. The AUD saw some initial appreciation as the equity markets started to perform on Wednesday. The real boost came from the strong Australian employment numbers. The turnaround came today after the Chinese GDP number was released and was  materially weaker than expected, and was rumoured. Currently we sit at 1.0330 support and direction from here will be pivotal for moves in the short term. Any AUD appreciation is likely to be hard fought and current levels represent good value buying of CAD with AUD in my view.
 
The current interbank midrate is:                                                            AUDCAD  1.0335                                                                                         
 
The interbank range so far this week to date has been:                 AUDCAD 1.0222 – 1.0408

 

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