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NZD to USD Exchange Rate

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When converting New Zealand dollars (NZD) to US dollars (USD) with Direct FX, you will save a significant amount of money. Our wholesale currency exchange rates for money transfers, are significantly more competitive than bank foreign exchange rates. Being Australasian based, we specialise in knowing what drives NZD and USD currency conversion rates.

NZD USD Overview: The US is New Zealand’s second largest export market and third in import terms. This had made the NZD to USD exchange rate a focus of our money transfer team for many years. The NZD to USD exchange rate can be volatile at times, especially during peaks and troughs of the cash rate cycles. The NZD is considered a “growth” currency, and the USD a “safe haven” currency. Our team will help you interpret market conditions when you make your currency transfer.
 
Historical Ranges: 1 year  5 years 10 years 
NZD USD .6817 - .7484 .6072 - .8834 .4893 - .8841

Current Official Cash Rates:
Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ): 1.75%         US Federal Reserve (FED): 1.00% to 1.25%

NZD USD Weekly Updates:                                                                                Back to FX Updates
Tuesday 26th September 5:30pm(NZT)

The New Zealand dollar has been relatively subdued after the election produced a clear winner but no clear government. It is now at 0.7240 with tone to the downside on the risk-off tone and concerns around the coalition government. 0.7220-0.7300 should hold over the next couple of days.

  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
NZD/USD 0.7241 0.7150 0.7430 0.7252 - 0.7407
 
Friday 22nd September 4:00pm(NZT)
It has been a week of poll driven whippy trading for the New Zealand dollar. It is now at 0.7290 after a high of 0.7431 2 days ago. It should stay around the 0.7270/0.7310 level heading into the weekend, but tomorrow’s result could provide plenty of action on Monday morning. A National win will likely see a small relief rally, while a Labour victory may well spark a sharp correction lower, at least temporarily.
The current interbank midrate is:    NZDUSD 0.7288

The interbank range this week has been:    NZDUSD 0.7229 - 0.7408
Friday 15th September 4:00pm(NZT)
The New Zealand dollar has had a whippy week with a 0.7320-0.7180 range against the USD. It is now at 0.7225 and becoming very poll driven with only a week out from the election. The downside is still favoured given stronger US data. It should hold at current levels until next week with bias to downside of range.
The current interbank midrate is:    NZDUSD 0.7229

The interbank range this week has been:    NZDUSD 0.7187 - 0.7337
Tuesday 12th September 4:00pm(NZT)

After spiking to 0.7336 last Friday the New Zealand dollar is back at 0.7250 close to the 0.7240 support. Given the stronger USD we look for the NZD to trade in the 0.7240-0.7290 range but with election jitters in the market downside is favoured.

  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
NZD/USD 0.7232 0.7150 0.7300 0.7164 - 0.7337

Friday 8th September 4:00pm(NZT)
After a tough start to the week the New Zealand dollar is now up at 0.7290 against the USD, mainly on the back of weaker US data. The break above minor resistance around 0.7265/70 opens the way for a push onto 0.7300, but given the looming election hard to see much further progress from this level.
The current interbank midrate is:    NZDUSD 0.7290

The interbank range this week has been:    NZDUSD 0.7143 - 0.7294
Tuesday 5th September 4:00pm(NZT)

The New Zealand dollar is marginally better at the start of this week now at 0.7168 vs the USD. It is suffering from election jitters which should cap any rise at 0.7200. The downside looks favoured with another test of last week’s 0.7132 low expected later in the week.

  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
NZD/USD 0.7169 0.7100 0.7200 0.7133 - 0.7298

Friday 1st September 4:00pm(NZT)
The New Zealand dollar dropped below major support at 0.7180 to trade at a low of 0.7132 against the United States dollar. It has bounced back to 0.7178 currently but looks soft and a solid US jobs figure tonight could see the NZD testing the 0.7132 level again. The 0.7200 level should cap any up moves short term, and we remain bearish for the kiwi heading into next week.
The current interbank midrate is:    NZDUSD 0.7176

The interbank range this week has been:    NZDUSD 0.7133 - 0.7298
Tuesday 29th August 4:30pm(NZT)

The New Zealand dollar as found its feet against the USD after a tough week last week. It is now at 0.7245 and should hold around current levels ahead of the US data dump in the next few days. Support at 0.7180 is critical to avert sustained moves lower as any break below that level would be a negative signal.

  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
NZD/USD 0.7228 0.7180 0.7280 0.7193 - 0.7328

Friday 25th August 3:30pm(NZT)
The New Zealand dollar has been knocked lower against the USD over the week. It is now at 0.7203 but has been to 0.7190 overnight and it continues to look soft. We expect 0.7150 to be tested next week, but a lot will depend on exactly what Fed Chair Yellen says tonight.
The current interbank midrate is:    NZDUSD 0.7215

The interbank range this week has been:    NZDUSD 0.7193 - 0.7337
Tuesday 22nd August 3:30pm(NZT)

The New Zealand dollar has climbed back over 0.7300 against the United States Dollar mainly on the weaker USD. With little domestic data this week, NZD moves will be driven by offshore. With the current weaker US tone and more risk-on appetite we look for the NZD to stay in a 0.7315-0.7360 range for the next few days.

  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
NZD/USD 0.7319 0.7250 0.7400 0.7224 - 0.7337

Friday 18th August 3:30pm(NZT)
The New Dollar has spiked to 0.7334 against the USD over the week, but as the risk-off tone has become stronger in the later part of the week has fallen back below the 0.7300 mark. It should hold above 0.7250 over the next few days but the risk is to the downside and further weakness.
The current interbank midrate is:    NZDUSD 0.7285

The interbank range this week has been:    NZDUSD 0.7224 - 0.7335
Tuesday 15th August 3:30pm(NZT)

The New Zealand dollar has been helped by the weaker US CPI but remains susceptible to any further uptick in risk-aversion. It’s now up slightly at 0.7300 USD with support 0.7250 that should hold in the near term. However, any United States dollar strength will test this level and tonight’s US retail sales data may be key in this respect.

  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
NZD/USD 0.7306 0.7250 0.7400 0.7252 - 0.7370
 
Friday 11th August 3:00pm(NZT)
The New Zealand dollar has been knocked by the move to safe-havens and the RBNZ yesterday. It fell below support at 0.7340 to the United States dollar and is now at 0.7274. It should hold above 0.7250 unless tonight’s US data is good and/or the Korean situation deteriorates.
The current interbank midrate is:    NZDUSD 0.7261

The interbank range this week has been:    NZDUSD 0.7252 - 0.7455
Tuesday 8th August 4:00pm(NZT)

The New Zealand dollar has broken support at 0.7400 against the USD and immediate support at 0.7340 is now close. It should stay around current levels ahead of the RBNZ on Thursday but a break of 0.7340 would open the way to 0.7270/80.

  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
NZD/USD 0.7351 0.7340 0.7400 0.7348 - 0.7516
 
Friday 4th August 3:00pm(NZT)
The New Zealand dollar has continued to soften against the USD over the week. It is now at 0.7432 in flat trading ahead of tonight's US jobs figure which will be key in determining near term direction. The RBNZ next week should continue with a dovish tone so we see a test of the 0.7400 level over the next few days likely.
The current interbank midrate is:    NZDUSD 0.7429

The interbank range this week has been:    NZDUSD 0.7393 - 0.7524
Friday 28st July 1:00pm(NZT)
The New Zealand dollar continued to surge against the USD for much of this week. Sharp gains were seen in the wake of yesterday's FOMC statement. The move did look a little overdone yesterday, considering the Fed didn’t deliver any real surprise, and overnight we have seen a decent correction lower. It’s certainly too early to say the tide has turned on this period of USD weakness, but last night’s pull back from the highs does raise that question. If we get a solid US GDP figure tonight, that may well be enough to suggest a medium term high was been put in place yesterday at 0.7556. We look for consolidation around current level ahead of that GDP data.
The current interbank midrate is:    NZDUSD 0.7495

The interbank range this week has been:    NZDUSD 0.7395 - 0.7556
Tuesday 25th July 1:00pm(NZT)

After failing to make significant gains against a broadly weakening USD in the first half of last week, the New Zealand dollar eventually came to the party and jumped to 10 month highs on Friday at 0.7459. Since then the pair has been consolidating those gains trading back for fourth around the 0.7430 area. It may well be trying to build a base for another crack higher toward the 2016 high at 0.7485. I’m not convinced the NZD has the momentum to break above that high, at least not at the moment, so those looking to purchase USD in the near term should take advantage of any further strength we see. A large part of New Zealand dollars recent rally has been on the back of a broadly weakening United States dollar. Political paralysis in Washington has played a big part in driving the USD’s decline, and for tide to really turn on this move the market is going to need to believe the Trump administration can get some of its key policies passed into law. This week from the US we have the FOMC statement, which shouldn’t provide and major surprises, along with along with Durable Goods order and Advance GDP.

  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
NZD/USD 0.7437 0.7375 0.7485 0.7268 - 0.7459
 
Friday 21st July 1:00pm(NZT)
For much of this week the New Zealand dollar struggled around the 0.7350 area, failing to make any real gains against the USD that was seeing across the board pressure. Tuesday’s soft NZ inflation result certainly played its part in keeping the NZD contained, but in the past 24 hours the local currency has shaken off the disappointing data and surged through to the highest level since August 2016. It really has all been about USD weakness with the political situation meaning it’s looking less and less likely the Trump administration will be able to get its “reflation” policies enacted. This latest jump higher in the NZD has now bought the August 2016 high of 0.7485 into range and the market may well look to target that over the coming sessions. Expect significant resistance as we approach that level however, and those looking to purchase United States Dollars should take advantage of this period of strength.
The current interbank midrate is:    NZDUSD 0.7402

The interbank range this week has been:    NZDUSD 0.7268 - 0.7414
Tuesday 18th July 1:00pm(NZT)

After failing to make significant gains against a broadly weakening USD in the first half of last week, the New Zealand dollar eventually came to the party and jumped to 10 month highs on Friday at 0.7459. Since then the pair has been consolidating those gains trading back for fourth around the 0.7430 area. It may well be trying to build a base for another crack higher toward the 2016 high at 0.7485. I’m not convinced the NZD has the momentum to break above that high, at least not at the moment, so those looking to purchase USD in the near term should take advantage of any further strength we see. A large part of New Zealand dollars recent rally has been on the back of a broadly weakening United States dollar. Political paralysis in Washington has played a big part in driving the USD’s decline, and for tide to really turn on this move the market is going to need to believe the Trump administration can get some of its key policies passed into law. This week from the US we have the FOMC statement, which shouldn’t provide and major surprises, along with along with Durable Goods order and Advance GDP.

  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
NZD/USD 0.7437 0.7375 0.7485 0.7268 - 0.7459
 
Friday 14th July 12:00pm(NZT)
After a very quiet start to the week, the New Zealand dollar has seen some good volatility in the last few days. Support for the NZD, that had been solid for 3 weeks or so, seemed to disappear as the currency melted away on Wednesday night down to a low of 0.7202. Last night however it was the United States dollar that came under pressure from a resurgent NZD as the local currency surged up through recent highs to briefly trade at 0.7368. Dovish comments from Fed officials in recent days seem to have hurt the USD, at least for now. Any further attempts to rally should continue to run into strong resistance between 0.7370 and 0.7400 and we favour selling into NZD strength. We don’t think these levels are going to be maintained for an extended period.
The current interbank midrate is:    NZDUSD 0.7318

The interbank range this week has been:    NZDUSD 0.7202 - 0.7368
Tuesday 11th July 1:00pm(NZT)

The New Zealand dollar has been trapped in an increasingly tight range against the United States dollar over the past few weeks. Even Friday’s key US employment data couldn’t break the deadlock. Support comes in around 0.7250 with topside resistance around 0.7340, and these two levels have contained the pair for much of the past three weeks. Last night’s range was a decidedly anaemic 19 points! Although further attempts to rally can’t be ruled out, our view is that the greater risk is a significant pullback toward the 0.7000 area. At this stage however it’s hard to see what exactly could trigger that. In the meantime, those looking to purchase USD should take advantage of the current level, or any potential further strength we may see.

  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
NZD/USD 0.7251 0.7250 0.7340 0.7245 - 0.7310

Friday 7th July 4:30pm(NZT)
The New Zealand dollar continues to struggle to hold levels above 0.7300. Now around 0.7286 and a move to 0.7250 beckons unless tonight's US jobs data surprises.
The current interbank midrate is:    NZDUSD 0.7286

The interbank range this week has been:    NZDUSD 0.7245 - 0.7345
Tuesday 4th July 4:30pm(NZT)

The New Zealand dollar seems to find the air over 0.7300 too thin to breath. Now at 0.7275, but given stronger USD data, the NZD ‘s golden run may be over for a while. It looks like 0.7250 beckons.

  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
NZD/USD 0.7280 0.7250 0.7325 0.7255 - 0.7345

Friday 30th June 3:30pm(NZT)
The New Zealand dollar has struggled this week and in spite of the solid fundamentals continuing it looks a little out of breath above the 0.7300 level. It is now at 0.7315 but next week's US data will provide a challenge. Look for rallies to continue to run into willing sellers.
The current interbank midrate is:    NZDUSD 0.7320

The interbank range this week has been:    NZDUSD 0.7255 - 0.7341
Tuesday 27th June 4:00pm(NZT)

On this cross the New Zealand dollar continues to perform solidly. It traded up to a 0.7310 high last night and is currently around 0.7291 after supportive trade data today. It has potential to test highs at 0.7320 with very supportive fundamentals, downside at 0.7250 unlikely to be tested over the next few days.

  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
NZD/USD 0.7293 0.7250 0.7325 0.7207 - 0.7309

Tuesday 20th June 3:30pm(NZT)

The New Zealand dollar looks to be marking time ahead of the RBNZ on Thursday. It should find some support overnight on the Global Dairy Auction result. 0.7170/0.7250 range should hold over the next few days.

  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
NZD/USD 0.7229 0.7170 0.7250 0.7186 - 0.7317

Friday 16th June 8:45pm(NZT)
A combination of softer than forecast NZ data and a largely unchanged outlook from the US Fed has seen the New Zealand dollar retreat from 4 month highs against the USD this week. There are tentative signs a top may have been put in place at 0.7317 and the risks are starting to swing back to the downside, although it’s too early to discount further attempts to rally. Initial resistance comes in around 0.7240 and if that level can cap any immediate periods of strength sellers will be encouraged and a deeper pullback could well unfold.
The current interbank midrate is:    NZDUSD 0.7208

The interbank range this week has been:    NZDUSD 0.7175 - 0.7317
Tuesday 13th June 4:00pm(NZT)

The New Zealand dollar is back over the 0.7200 mark after a dip to 0.7170 yesterday. It is now at 0.7217 and we look for the 0.7170-0.7250 range to persist ahead of the FOMC on Thursday which will be key for near term direction.

  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
NZD/USD 0.7221 0.7170 0.7250 0.7149 - 0.7224

Thursday 8th June 4:00pm(NZT)
The New Zealand dollar continues to have a good week, with more positive results news from Wednesday’s Global dairy auction adding to the solid fundamentals story. The NZD pushed over 0.7200 last night making a 3 month high at 0.7210. Now at 0.7204 and has 0.7250 in its sights, but will have to get through tonight’s multiple event risks.
The current interbank midrate is:    NZDUSD 0.7204

The interbank range this week has been:    NZDUSD 0.7059 - 0.7210
Tuesday 6th June 4:00pm(NZT)

Momentum remains positive and the New Zealand dollar now looks happy over the 0.7100 level vs the US. With the US jobs data disappointing a move to the 0.7200 level looks more likely over the week as underlying New Zealand fundamentals continue to shine.

  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
NZD/USD 0.7149 0.7050 0.7150 0.7040 - 0.7158

Friday 2nd June 4:45pm(NZT)
The NZD continues to sit happily above the 0.7000 level after a high of 0.7120 3 days ago. Currently at 0.7070 should stay around this level until the US jobs data later tonight. We expect a pullback on the NZD should these figures be as good as expected, but 0.7000 support levels are expected to hold.
The current interbank midrate is:    NZDUSD 0.7070

The interbank range this week has been:    NZDUSD 0.7008 - 0.7118
Tuesday 30th May 4:15pm(NZT)

The New Zealand has put in a solid performance over the last few days as it continues to hold above the USD 0.7000 level. It is currently trading around 0.7050 after a two month high at 0.7090 last night. We expect consolidation at current levels as we head into crucial US data later this week It is attracting buying interest on dips but upside is limited until US data figures have been digested.

  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
NZD/USD 0.7046 0.7000 0.7090 0.6989 - 0.7088

Friday 26th May 12:45pm(NZT)
The New Zealand dollar has had a positive week supported by solid trade balance data and increasing dairy pay-out forecasts. These factors combined with the Fed minutes that seem to suggest a June rate hike isn’t a done deal just yet, helped to drive the NZDUSD up over 0.7000 eventually making a 0.7059 high. Resistance around 0.7060 has however caped the pair despite repeated attempts at the level. The continued failure to overcome 0.7060 may well see the pair eventually drift lower to initial support around 0.6950. Tonight’s US data in the form of Core Durable Goods Orders and Preliminary GDP will likely be key in determining if the pair can continue higher or not.
The current interbank midrate is:    NZDUSD 0.7016

The interbank range this week has been:    NZDUSD 0.6882 - 0.7059
Tuesday 23rd May 4:15pm(NZT)

After being knocked around last week the New Zealand dollar starts the week on a firmer tone breaking back over 0.6900 against the USD and now above 0.7000 as USD weakness persists. The 0.7015/20 area should cap rises today but with continued solid data look for the NZD to test 0.7050 later in the week, which if broken would open the way to 0.7090

  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
NZD/USD 0.7006 0.6900 0.7050 0.6863 - 0.7014

Friday 19th May 4:15pm(NZT)
The New Zealand dollar has had a choppy few days trading as high as 0.6948 but now back at 0.6885. Given continued positive NZ economic data we expect back over 0.6900 again next week. Unfortunately the NZD looks likely to remain trapped within the 0.6850 to 0.6950 range for some time yet.
The current interbank midrate is:    NZDUSD 0.6885

The interbank range this week has been:    NZDUSD 0.6833 - 0.6949
Tuesday 16th May 4:15pm(NZT)

The New Zealand dollar continues to trade sideways vs the USD between the broad parameters of 0.6850-0.6950. Supportive economic fundamentals are countered by the RBNZ’s very neutral policy stance. Tonight's Global Dairy auction should be NZD supportive and we look for a move over 0.6900 in the next day or so.

  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
NZD/USD 0.6885 0.6840 0.6950 0.6819 - 0.6951

Friday 12th May 4:15pm(NZT)
While economic fundamentals remain supportive, the more dovish than expected RBNZ statement yesterday knocked confidence in the New Zealand dollar. It is now at 0.6845, after an 11 month low at 0.6818 yesterday. It continues to look soft with 0.6900 providing upside cap heading into next week.
The current interbank midrate is:    NZDUSD 0.6839

The interbank range this week has been:    NZDUSD 0.6819 - 0.6951
Tuesday 9th May 8:15pm(NZT)
The New Zealand dollar as bounced back against the USD, now up at 0.6914 from 0.6838 a week ago. Fundamentals are still New Zealand dollar supportive and with the RBNZ statement on Thursday expected to be supportive look for a push towards the 0.7000 level the week.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
NZD/USD 0.6903 0.6850 0.7000 0.6840 - 0.6968

Friday 5th May 3:45pm(NZT)
The New Zealand dollar has not had a good few days against the USD. In spite of higher dairy prices and solid employment data it failed to hold a bounce to 0.6967, falling to a 0.6840 low last, night a level not seen since June 2016. It looks oversold and is now back at 0.6866 and we expect it to track higher over next week, but tonight’s US jobs data could keep selling pressure on. NZ’s fundamentals however remain sound.
The current interbank midrate is:    NZDUSD 0.6866

The interbank range this week has been:    NZDUSD 0.6840 - 0.6968
Tuesday 2nd May 7:15pm(NZT)
The New Zealand dollar has had a choppy week, falling to a low of 0.6846 against the USD, a level not seen since last May. This move down was all offshore driven as changes to the Canadian lumber and dairy imports were seen to have potential to affect the NZ trading situation so offshore investors sold the NZD. It has since recovered to 0.6930 and a push back over 0.7000 after the US payroll figures now looks possible. Fundamentals remain positive and NZD supportive.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
NZD/USD 0.6918 0.6900 0.6975 0.6849 - 0.6992 

Friday 21st April 11:40am(NZT)
It’s been a week of choppy price action for the New Zealand dollar. The local currency has twice rallied toward 0.7050, but both times the move has been short lived and we’re now trading back around the increasingly familiar 0.7000 level. It’s hard to see a significant move to the downside unfolding especially in light of yesterday’s stronger than forecast NZ inflation result and patchy US data releases. We expect further ranging between the broad parameters of 0.6900 and 0.7100 over the coming week. The risks look to be skewed toward price action in the upper part of that range.
The current interbank midrate is:    NZDUSD 0.6992

The interbank range this week has been:    NZDUSD 0.6986 - 0.7052
Tuesday 18th April 7:15pm(NZT)
The New Zealand dollar was under relentless pressure from the USD for much of last week trading to a low of 0.6908 early on Thursday morning. That’s when President Trump caught the market off guard with comments published that he likes a low interest rate policy and that the USD was too strong. This immediately saw the US dollar under pressure across the board. The NZD jumped a full cent against the USD in the hours that followed and it’s now comfortably trading around the 0.7000 area. At this stage there is significant support around 0.6900 and just below that level and we suspect that will continue to contain any periods of NZD weakness in the near term.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
NZD/USD 0.7013 0.6900 0.7100 0.6910 - 0.7035

Tuesday 11th April 4:15pm(NZT)
The New Zealand dollar remains under some pressure from the USD. It is now trading at 0.6950 after a 0.6920 low (1 month low) overnight. Economic data still supportive of the NZD but the market is very much reactive to USD moves for the time being. Look for move to the 0.6900 level over the coming week.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
NZD/USD 0.6959 0.6900 0.7020 0.6922 - 0.7000
 
Friday 7th April 4:50pm(NZT)
The New Zealand dollar has had a choppy few days ranging from 0.7021 to 0.6938 against the US dollar. Now back at 0.6963, economic data remains supportive but it’s vulnerable to any powerful USD move on the jobs figure tonight. Look for test of 0.6900 over the next few days if we do indeed get a solid US employment number.
The current interbank midrate is:    NZDUSD 0.6969

The interbank range this week has been:    NZDUSD 0.6942 - 0.7022
Tuesday 4th April 7:15pm(NZT)
The New Zealand dollar continues to range trade against the USD albeit with a weaker tone. Upside resistance at 0.7080 unlikely to be threatened this week, especially ahead of what are expected to be solid US jobs data. We favour a drift to test support at 0.6975. A break of which would target 0.6950 and below.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
NZD/USD 0.6994 0.6975 0.7080 0.6976 - 0.7046

Friday 31st March 1:00pm(NZT)
The New Zealand dollar has drifted lower as the week draws to a close, now trading around 0.7000 having fallen from around 0.7040 yesterday.  A lack of local data has contributed the directionless trade of late and unless something happens to really drive the USD, we could be in for more of the same early next week. Given the slightly stronger USD a test of 0.6975 is on the cards to finish the week/month/quarter. Support should hold at 0.6975 with next stop at 0.6950, but we think that's next week’s story.
The current interbank midrate is:    NZDUSD 0.7000

The interbank range this week has been:    NZDUSD 0.6995 - 0.7068
 
Tuesday 28th March 4:15pm(NZT)
The New Zealand dollar continues to perform solidly on the back of the weaker USD. It is now at 0.7041 after an overnight high of 0.7066 and remains reliant on USD moves as it consolidates in a broad 0.7000-0.7090 range.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
NZD/USD 0.7041 0.6975 0.7080 0.6995 - 0.7089

Friday 24th March 3:00pm(NZT)
The New Zealand dollar has had a reasonable week continuing to hold over the 0.7000 level against the USD. Having made a high of 0.7055 overnight is now at 0.7025 and should consolidate in the 0.7015/40 range to close the week. However it is very dependent on US direction after the Health care bill vote.
The current interbank midrate is:    NZDUSD 0.7023

The interbank range this week has been:    NZDUSD 0.6979 - 0.7089
Tuesday 21st March 4:15pm(NZT)
The New Zealand dollar has rallied back over the 0.7000 level as the USD tone weakened after the Fed rate hike. The New Zealand dollar, after spiking to 0.7072 overnight, is now back at 0.7050 reversing the previous weaker trend. If it can continue consolidating at current levels a move back over 0.7100 looks probable over the next few days.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
NZD/USD 0.7045 0.6975 0.7080 0.6894 - 0.7072

Friday 17th March 4:00pm(NZT)
The New Zealand dollar after having a good run back over USD 0.7000 to a high of 0.7047 was knocked back by the weaker Q4 GDP figure. Currently back at 0.6979, expect consolidation at current levels but we look for a move back towards the 0.07030/40 level next week.
The current interbank midrate is:    NZDUSD 0.6981

The interbank range this week has been:    NZDUSD 0.6893 - 0.7048
Tuesday 14th March 3:45pm(NZT)
The New Zealand dollar has proven more resilient over the last few days against the USD, building a base around the 0.6910-0.6950 level after being knocked to a low of 0.6890 after the weaker GDT auction results. This week's FOMC meeting is crucial for direction and with a rate increase built in to pricing, unless the accompanying Fed press statement is very hawkish, we look for the NZD to probe higher to the 0.6970/90 level.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
NZD/USD 0.6920 0.6860 0.6975 0.6891 - 0.7016

Friday 10th March 4:00pm(NZT)
The New Zealand dollar has had a sad week. It's hard to believe that last week the New Zealand dollar was up at 0.7235 against the current level of 0.6896. Although the GDT auction results didn’t help the NZD it has really been the turnaround in USD sentiment that has hurt the NZD. Next level is 0.6860 but given the large fall already seen, if it can consolidate at current levels and build a base, any further dips may be shallow and held by the 0.6860 support level. Any significant rally however is very unlikely ahead of the FOMC meeting next week.
The current interbank midrate is:    NZDUSD 0.6909

The interbank range this week has been:    NZDUSD 0.6891 - 0.7046
Tuesday 7th March 3:45pm(NZT)
The New Zealand dollar continues to move lower against the stronger USD trend. It slipped from a high yesterday at 0.7044 and is now struggling at 0.6995. The next support is around 0.6960 region and this looks likely to be targeted over the next 24 hrs, a break of this level would open the way for 0.6860/80 region. Friday's payroll data will be pivotal for future NZD direction.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
NZD/USD 0.7001 0.6960 0.7045 0.6984 - 0.7238

Friday 3rd March 4:15pm(NZT)
The New Zealand dollar was knocked hard overnight making a low of 0.7049 and is currently back at that level. Fundamentals continue to be solid, but it is now all about the USD and we look for a test of 0.7000 heading into next week. Good US payrolls would pressure the New Zealand dollar further and see a move into the 0.6900 region.
The current interbank midrate is:    NZDUSD 0.7041

The interbank range this week has been:    NZDUSD 0.7038 - 0.7238
Tuesday 28th February 7:45pm(NZT)
The New Zealand dollar is still hanging on in there, now trading around 0.7180 to the USD. It’s had a 0.7245-0.7171 range over the week and looks to be marking time ahead of Trump’s address and Friday’s US jobs data. Economic data continues to remain supportive but the USD will be the driver over this week. Any retracement should find support at 0.7130 then 0.7100. It will find an upside break over 0.7230 hard going ahead of Fridays US payroll data.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
NZD/USD 0.7184 0.7130 0.7240 0.7150 - 0.7245

Friday 24th February 2:45pm(NZT)
The New Zealand dollar heads into the closing stages of the week on a firm footing, after staging a strong recovery from the midweek lows of 0.7130. Broad based USD weakness in the past 24 hours has certainly helped the local currency that traded to a high of 0.7246 last night. The United States dollar saw some pressure in the wake yesterday's morning’s release of the Fed minutes, and it’s been compounded by the growing realisation that Trump’s reflationary policies are still a long way from actually been implemented. It may well be some time next year before the positive effects of potential tax cuts and infrastructure spending are actually felt on the ground. In the meantime NZ economic fundamental remain very supportive and this should continue to see dips in the New Zealand dollar well supported.
The current interbank midrate is:    NZDUSD 0.7222

The interbank range this week has been:    NZDUSD 0.7150 - 0.7245
Tuesday 21st February 6:45pm(NZT)
The New Zealand dollar has drifted lower against the United States dollar today and currently sits around 0.7160.  If 0.7150 breaks look for a test of 0.7100 Wednesday’s global dairy auction should provide some support if prices remain firm but as always the USD reigns on this cross and the FOMC minutes have potential to further pressure the New Zealand dollar.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
NZD/USD 0.7155 0.7100 0.7240 0.7137 - 0.7242

Friday 17th February 6:30pm(NZT)
The New Zealand dollar, after trading as low as 0.7133 this week, is now back at 0.7212 on USD pullback overnight. It looks to be consolidating around current levels and has potential to push back over 0.7250 to test resistance at 0.7260 targeting 0.7300 next week.
The current interbank midrate is:    NZDUSD 0.7206

The interbank range this week has been:    NZDUSD 0.7137 - 0.7242
Tuesday 14th February 4:45pm(NZT)
The New Zealand dollar, after trading as low as 0.7154 yesterday, is marginally higher at 0.7180 as it continues to suffer the fallout from last week’s softer than expected RBNZ statement and the better USD sentiment. Next major support level is around 0.6860 last seen on 23rd December 2016, but given the still solid economic data we doubt this level will be threatened anytime soon. Immediate support is around 0.7115 but if Trump’s US tax plan disappoints, look for a bounce back to 0.7300 and above.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
NZD/USD 0.7181 0.7115 0.7260 0.7174 - 0.7374

Friday 10th February 6:30pm(NZT)
The New Zealand dollar opens lower again against the USD at 0.7182 after the market further digested yesterday’s more dovish than expected, RBNZ statement. As we have already stated economic fundamentals remain positive so we still favour buying the New Zealand dollar on dips. Immediate downside is around 0.7170 then 0.7150. We expect consolidation at current levels and above as we head into next week.
The current interbank midrate is:    NZDUSD 0.7202

The interbank range this week has been:    NZDUSD 0.7179 - 0.7374
Tuesday 7th February 4:45pm(NZT)
The New Zealand dollar opens the week after the Waitangi Day holiday around 0.7310 against the United States dollar. It seemed to be little affected by the US payroll data and continues to attract good support having seemingly shrugged off last week's disappointing unemployment figures. A hold over 0.7300 is positive, with an advance back to the 0.7320 level presenting an opportunity to target 0.7400 on any USD weakness. Thursday’s RBNZ statement is unlikely to cause any surprises, but any firmer stance on inflation in the subsequent press release would encourage buying interest.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
NZD/USD 0.7358 0.7280 0.7350 0.7244 - 0.7369

Friday 3rd February 4:30pm(NZT)
The New Zealand dollar has had a mixed week after the disappointing jump in the unemployment figure saw the NZD drop from a 0.7248 high to 0.7269. It has recovered some ground however and is now back at the 0.7288 level. Trading today has been subdued in part to the holiday weekend for Waitangi Day but also as the US non-farm figure looms later tonight. A push back over 0.7315/20 would target another tilt at 0.7400 but this would be for next week and very dependent on tonight's US data.
The current interbank midrate is:    NZDUSD 0.7276

The interbank range this week has been:    NZDUSD 0.7233 - 0.7347
Tuesday 31st January 4:45pm(NZT)
The New Zealand dollar is still holding firm against the USD, as the economy continues to provide solid performance. Currently sitting around 0.7280 after a high of 0.7290 overnight, next stop is 0.7315 which if breached would target 0.7400, but given the large US data dump this week the market will be less inclined to push the New Zealand dollar that far ahead.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
NZD/USD 0.7287 0.7235 0.7315 0.7210 - 0.7311

Friday 27th January 3:30pm(NZT)
Choppy trading after the CPI upside surprise saw the New Zealand dollar push to a 0.7311 high. It was sold lower overnight as United States dollar strength came to the fore and currently sits at the 0.7240 level. We expect consolidation at this level to end the week. The New Zealand dollar remains well under-pinned and the uptick in CPI adds to this story, but the USD is currently driving the bus on this cross.
The current interbank midrate is:    NZDUSD 0.7250

The interbank range this week has been:    NZDUSD 0.7130 - 0.7311
Tuesday 24th January 6:15pm(NZT)
The New Zealand dollar ranged between 0.7178-0.7228 overnight, it is currently at 0.7234 and looks solid against the weaker USD we expect the New Zealand dollar to push towards resistance of 0.7250 a break of which would target 0.7300. Thursday’s CPI release, if on the upside of expectations, may well provide the push for a move into the 0.7300 region, as long as the USD remains at current levels.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
NZD/USD 0.7232 0.7185 0.7300 0.7108 - 0.7263

Friday 20th January 1:30pm(NZT)
The New Zealand dollar has made gains against the USD this week and it heads into the weekend trading just below the 0.7200 level. It hasn’t been one-way traffic however as a period of USD strength saw support around the 0.7100 area tested yesterday. The reality is the NZD, and the wider fx markets, are been driven by broad swings in the value of the USD at the moment, and we expect that theme to continue over the coming weeks and months. Initial resistance on the topside comes in around 0.7230 and that may well contain any potential strength heading into next week.
The current interbank midrate is:    NZDUSD 0.7191

The interbank range this week has been:    NZDUSD 0.7076 - 0.7218
Tuesday 17th January 2:15pm(NZT)
With US markets closed last night trading volumes were relatively light, the New Zealand dollar opens just above 0.7100 close to its close yesterday after a 0.7075-0.7145 range overnight. The New Zealand dollar continues to garner good support with any dip to the low 0.7000’s level picking up buying interest. Tone for the New Zealand dollar should remain firm over the coming days. Tonight’s dairy auction may provide further impetus for a breach of 0.7150, should it come in on the firm side as expected. This would open the way to target 0.7240 being the Dec 14th high.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
NZD/USD 0.7100 0.7050 0.7150 0.6960 - 0.7146

Friday 13th January 6:30pm(NZT)
The New Zealand dollar as continued to rise against the softer United States Dollar hitting a one month high overnight at 0.7145. It has since eased back on lighter trading to 0.7106, but upward momentum persists with a target of 0.7240, the December 14th high. Trump’s press conference was the catalyst for the market to reduce long USD positions but further political ructions will continue to add volatility to the market.  Solid fundamentals however should make any new Zealand dollar retreat shallow and short lived.
The current interbank midrate is:    NZDUSD 0.7117

The interbank range this week has been:    NZDUSD 0.6950 - 0.7143
Tuesday 10th January 4:00pm(NZT)
The New Zealand dollar continues nudge higher following on from late last year's trend as it remains supported by continued solid fundamentals. Overnight the NZD rose from 0.6950 to 0.7033 and we favour continued strength over the short term buoyed by a robust economy and a continued recovery in dairy prices. However, the USD has enjoyed an impressive rise and with the US Feds tightening projections, along with US fiscal expansion plans USD strength is expected to be ongoing, which will make extended gains much beyond the 0.7250 level for the kiwi unlikely.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
NZD/USD 0.7032 0.6800 0.7250 0.6887 - 0.7043

Friday 23rd December 3:45am(NZT)
The New Zealand dollar has eased slightly in trade against the greenback since our report on Tuesday. It has been a relatively quiet week for trade this week after yesterday’s Q3 GDP numbers came in close to expectations after the revisions lower to prior data. Solid sentiment for the US dollar has continued to be the driver of trade. Look for direction to again come offshore over the holiday period given the quiet local data schedule. US Nonfarm payrolls employment numbers at the end of the first week of 2017 is the key indicator to watch although expect sentiment and positioning to play a large role in trade. Expect initial supply in the .6970-7000 zone and levels towards .6850 to attract some support.
The current interbank midrate is:    NZDUSD 0.6902

The interbank range this week has been:    NZDUSD 0.6883 - 0.7042
Tuesday 20th December 1:30pm(NZT)
The New Zealand dollar has continued to register large falls against the US dollar since our commentary on Friday. The move continued the trend seen since Wednesday’s FOMC meeting (US time) and includes a recent more cautious stance on risk as geopolitical tensions increase in trade this week. Local focus starts with dairy prices tonight (a largely flat auction is expected) and GDP data on Thursday. A Fonterra upgrade to the milk price forecast is also possible in the lead up to Xmas. We strongly favour selling rallies as this move targets (weak) support at .6850.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
NZD/USD 0.6926 0.6850 0.7000 0.6924 - 0.7238

Friday 16th December 11:45am(NZT)
The New Zealand dollar has reversed sharply lower in trade against the US dollar this week. Yesterday’s US FOMC meeting was the catalyst for the sharp move which saw the NZD/USD drop from highs around .7240 on Wednesday night to lows below .7015 overnight. The fresh boost to US dollar sentiment will again be a dominant force next week, at least until Thursday’s NZ GDP data. Expect rallies to invite selling above .7100, whilst on the downside support comes in around the recent November lows at .6970.
The current interbank midrate is:    NZDUSD 0.7035

The interbank range this week has been:    NZDUSD 0.7010 - 0.7238
Tuesday 13th December 2:30pm(NZT)
The New Zealand dollar remains well supported in trade against the greenback this week. An easing in the US dollar in overnight trade and a firmer AUD helped the NZD move to highs just above 72c in trade overnight. Strong gains in oil aided the sentiment shown towards the commodity currencies. Thursday is the key day this week for the NZD as we get guidance from the US Fed (and a rate hike) which will be followed by local third quarter GDP data. We lack any real bias, although momentum is mildly positive.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
NZD/USD 0.7196 0.7115 0.7225 0.7103 - 0.7221

Friday 9th December 11:15am(NZT)
The New Zealand dollar is trading higher against the US dollar from those levels reported on Tuesday. The move comes on the back of continued positive signals over the NZ economy from Government and the RBNZ, stronger dairy prices and a rally in the AUD which itself has benefitted from large lifts in key $AUD sensitive commodity prices. NZ GDP on Thursday is the main event to watch next week, first support is now seen in the .7140/50 area (.7070 beyond), whilst resistance is eyed in the .7225/50 zone. This should offer an opportunity for reasonable levels to cover short term USD requirements.
The current interbank midrate is:    NZDUSD 0.7173

The interbank range this week has been:    NZDUSD 0.7070 - 0.7221
Tuesday 6th December 2:30pm(NZT)
The New Zealand dollar is trading higher against the US dollar since our report on Thursday. The move comes on the back of general USD weakness (especially overnight), although the shock news from current NZ PM John Key that he would resign and exit the National Party leadership sent the NZD tumbling in trade for a time yesterday. Falls were limited to around .7070 which is now the first support area to watch during the week. Resistance is eyed around last week .7170 highs through to .7180 initially. Look to the AUD and the overnight GDT dairy auction for guidance, we lack any real bias although momentum is mildly positive at present.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
NZD/USD 0.7147 0.7070 0.7170 0.7047 - 0.7159

Thursday 1st December 2:00pm(NZT)
The New Zealand dollar is trading at similar levels to those reported in trade on Tuesday against the US dollar. Key local data has been lacking which has meant much of the direction has come from the shifts in the Australian dollar given the lack of directional movement observed in the greenback this week. Focus will continue to look across the Tasman for direction today although tomorrow’s key US data has a high chance of seeing the US dollar again moving on a directional basis. Levels of note are last night’s highs around .7170 whilst on the downside targets are .7050 and key support in the .6950/70 zone.
The current interbank midrate is:    NZDUSD 0.7085

The interbank range this week has been:    NZDUSD 0.6972 - 0.7159
Tuesday 29th November 3:30pm(NZT)
An easing in the overall level of the US dollar has helped the New Zealand dollar gain in trade against the greenback since our report on Friday. Local influence lacked last week and this is again expected to be the case this week. Look to the US data for direction and the outcome of the OPEC oil producer meeting for influence on commodity and commodity currency sentiment. Initial levels to watch are around .7030 on the downside and .7100/05 on the topside. Strong support should again be seen below 70c in the .6950/70 region should the US dollar reignite.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
NZD/USD 0.7080 0.6970 0.7150 0.6972 - 0.7101

Friday 25th November 2:30pm(NZT)
This week has been a relatively subdued one for trade in the New Zealand dollar against the USD. Small losses have occurred on the back of additional strength in the greenback, although for now they have been limited to ahead of .6970. Trade next week will again reflect USD sentiment which has us favouring rallies stalling ahead of 71c. Support is seen in the .6950/70 zone, a break of which brings .6900 into view.
The current interbank midrate is:    NZDUSD 0.7004

The interbank range this week has been:    NZDUSD 0.6972 - 0.7085
Tuesday 22nd November 2:30pm(NZT)
The New Zealand dollar sits moderately higher in trade against the greenback since our report on Friday. Strong exporter interest which has been seen ahead and just below 70c has meant further falls have been hard to come by despite the continued strength in the US dollar. This week is very quiet from a local data standpoint which will have the market looking to the US for direction, especially Thursday morning’s (NZ time) FOMC minutes. The demand for the local unit under 70c when combined with the overall strength in the US dollar has us favouring consolidation this week.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
NZD/USD 0.7075 0.6950 0.7150 0.6985 - 0.7144

Friday 18th November 2:30pm(NZT)
The New Zealand dollar has continued to ease in line with a stronger US dollar in trade this week. Lows around .7015 have been seen in trade this morning. Highs were seen early on Monday and towards the middle of the week around the .7140/45 level. Moderate gains in the latest GDT dairy auction had little impact in the face of the impressive strength of the greenback. Data focus next week is on the (delayed) retail sales release on Wednesday and trade numbers on Friday. We favour buying the USD on rallies towards this week’s highs next week.
The current interbank midrate is:    NZDUSD 0.7030

The interbank range this week has been:    NZDUSD 0.7014 - 0.7229
Tuesday 15th November 2:00pm(NZT)
The New Zealand dollar has continued to decline in trade against the US Dollar since our report on Friday. The move reflects the continued demand for the greenback after the Trump presidential victory and potential for further rates cuts in NZ following last week’s RBNZ commentary. Government exposure to yesterday’s large quake has had a more minimal effect on local sentiment. Look to offshore and GDT dairy price data (tonight) for influence. We favour buying the USD on rallies towards .7170/80 given the current strong USD sentiment.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
NZD/USD 0.7126 0.7070 0.7180 0.7071 - 0.7402

Friday 11th November 2:30pm(NZT)
The New Zealand dollar has had a very volatile week of trade against the USD in trade this week. ‘Risk-on’ buying in anticipation of a Clinton victory on Wednesday saw it reach highs above 74c against the greenback briefly before it slumped on the Trump victory. Immediate gains after the RBNZ interest rate cut proved short lived especially after comments from the RBNZ deputy Governor McDermott who noted the concern over the impact of the strong NZD and potential for further cuts if needed. With a quiet week next week look to offshore for moves. Expect initial resistance around .7260/70 and then .7300/10. We have a mild sell NZD on rallies bias.
The current interbank midrate is:    NZDUSD 0.7192

The interbank range this week has been:    NZDUSD 0.7179 - 0.7402
Tuesday 8th November 2:30pm(NZT)
The New Zealand dollar has continued to rally against the USD since our last report. The most recent gain has come on the back of renewed appetite for risk ahead of an anticipated Clinton victory in the US election tomorrow. Other focus will be on Thursday’s RBNZ interest rate decision where majority expectations are for a cut in rates to 1.75%. Expect a choppy week especially over the next 48 hours as pricing reflects the inherent uncertainty of the US election and the forward bias from the RBNZ statement.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
NZD/USD 0.7336 0.7280 0.7380 0.7149 - 0.7359

Thursday 3rd November 3:00pm(NZT)
The New Zealand dollar has had a very strong week against the USD this week which has seen it race to highs around .7310, helped by stronger local data which included unemployment at its lowest rate since 2008. Better than expected GDT dairy price data and a weaker greenback have also helped drive the impressive gains. Focus for the balance of the week will be on tomorrow’s US employment data, whilst next week we look forward to the RBNZ interest rate decision on Thursday. Momentum is favourable for further gains towards .7370, with first support likely around .7250/60.
The current interbank midrate is:    NZDUSD 0.7283

The interbank range this week has been:    NZDUSD 0.7110 - 0.7308
Tuesday 1st November 1:30pm(NZT)
The New Zealand dollar has lifted moderately against the USD since our report on Friday, although continues to remain well entrapped near the centre of last week’s range. Profit taking on the greenback on Friday has been the driver of the small lift. Focus for this week will be on the data over the next 24 hours (led by employment) and events in the US later in the week. We lack a strong bias, although are watching rising key trend-line support ahead of the .7050 level.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
NZD/USD .7156 .7100 .7185 .7110 - .7183

Friday 28th October 3:00pm(NZT)
The New Zealand dollar has traded with a soft tone against the USD although is little changed from Tuesday’s levels. There have been no local leads to go on this week which has meant the stronger USD and weaker AUD (post Wednesday’s inflation highs) have been the influence. Support is seen nearby in the .7100/10 area whilst the weekly highs around the .7180/90 area is the first area of resistance. Key trend-line support is noted around .7070 currently (is rising). Wednesday looms as a key day next week when we get labour market for Q3 and dairy price data overnight prior.
The current interbank midrate is:    NZDUSD 0.7121

The interbank range this week has been:    NZDUSD 0.7110 - 0.7191
Tuesday 25th October 3:00pm(NZT)
The New Zealand dollar has continued to ease against the USD since Friday. The move reflects general selling of the commodity currencies and the recent further strength in the USD. This week is looking very quiet locally so look for direction to come from tomorrow’s Australian inflation data and US data over the week. We favour selling rallies on the week towards .7180 targeting trend-line support which is coming in around .7060 currently (rising).
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
NZD/USD 0.7131 0.7060 0.7180 0.7110 - 0.7262

Friday 23rd October 2:30pm(NZT)
The New Zealand dollar has had a mixed week against the USD in trade this week. Tuesday’s better than expected Q3 inflation read and a stronger AUD proved the catalyst to drive the NZD to .7265 highs yesterday against the greenback (briefly after the Australian employment data), before the weaker Australian data eventually weighed on trade in the local unit. Next week is particularly quiet in NZ so look for direction from the AUD and events in the US. Initial support is seen at .7180 (then .7125/30) whilst resistance should be seen towards the week’s highs.
The current interbank midrate is:    NZDUSD 0.7182

The interbank range this week has been:    NZDUSD 0.7078 - 0.7262
Tuesday 18th October 3:00pm(NZT)
The New Zealand dollar has rebounded strongly against the greenback since our report on Friday. The move reflects the recent strength seen in the commodity currencies and this morning’s better than expected NZ Q3 inflation data which has seen the pair trade to highs just above .7180. In focus for the remainder of the week will be tonight’s GDT dairy auction (little change expected) and data events in the US (including today’s inflation). We favour selling this rally to buy USD on this bounce around the .7200/20 resistance region, although also expects dips to be sought towards .7135/45 after today’s data.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
NZD/USD 0.7180 0.7075 0.7200 0.7036 - 0.7183

Friday 14th October 2:00pm(NZT)
The New Zealand dollar has continued to track lower against the USD in trade this week. The move reflects continued support for the greenback as expectations for a December US move up in rates builds, and as expectations solidify for an RBNZ rate cut next month. Focus from here will be on tonight’s US data and Fed Chair Yellen’s speech whilst on the domestic front it will be Tuesday’s Q3 inflation report that garners most attention. Initial resistance lies at .7110 which is followed by much stronger resistance at .7200. Trend-line support (up) is currently around .7020, just below this week’s .7035 lows.
The current interbank midrate is:    NZDUSD .7083

The interbank range this week has been:    NZDUSD .7036 - .7198
Tuesday 11th October 2:00pm(NZT)
The New Zealand dollar has eased marginally against the USD since our report on Friday. The move reflects the continued support for the greenback and solid US data last week, this as expectations of a US rate hike in December remain high (~67%). Look for a week that is dictated once again by the US data and the view of the relative (reducing) yield gap. We continue to favour buying USD over the NZD with levels near first resistance being the immediate sell NZD target.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
NZD/USD .7134 .7080 .7200 .7112 - .7310
 

Friday 7th October 2:30pm(NZT)
The New Zealand dollar has fallen sharply against the USD in trade this week. The move reflects better than expected US data which has bolstered sentiment towards the greenback, although reduced appetite for ‘risk’ currencies and a softer GDT dairy auction have also contributed. Initial resistance is now pegged in the previous .7200/35 support area, whilst on the downside the next target is the .7085/.7100 area. Look to tonight’s US data for direction and for the US event calendar to also dictate next week. We favour selling NZD rallies (towards the top of the resistance zone), although tonight’s data may change that view if it is extremely poor.
The current interbank midrate is:    NZDUSD .7154

The interbank range this week has been:    NZDUSD .7137 - .7310
Tuesday 4th October 3:00pm(NZT)
The New Zealand dollar continues to remain entrapped in a tight range against the greenback in recent trade. Buyers continue to be seen on dips towards .7220 presently although selling above .7300 has kept rallies in check during recent trade. Focus this week locally is on the next 24 hours with RBNZ Governor Wheel speaking this afternoon and the GDT dairy auction series overnight. We favour buying USD above .7300 at present and expect recent resistance to cap until Friday’s key US employment data.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
NZD/USD .7290 .7200 .7330 .7229 - .7329

Friday 30th September 2:30pm(NZT)
A lack of key local data and a relatively subdued performance by the greenback has left the NZD largely unchanged in trade this week. Support in the .7200/20 zone continues to hold the key to more range trading, whilst on the topside selling emerged as expected above .7320 earlier in the week. Next week is quiet again on the local data front with just the next in the GDT dairy price series offering any chance of surprise. Look to the US ISM and US employment data for direction overall. We favour more range trading, although have a buy USD on rallies bias given the waning upside momentum.
The current interbank midrate is:    NZDUSD 0.7242

The interbank range this week has been:    NZDUSD 0.7223 - 0.7329
Tuesday 27th September 3:00pm(NZT)
The New Zealand dollar again sits largely unchanged against the USD since our report on Friday. Further weakness has been seen this week, although so far buyers around .7220 have limited last week’s RBNZ and dairy price inspired losses. Support in the .7200/20 zone looks pivotal on the week, although with a quiet local data calendar and sentiment weakened after last week’s central bank commentary we would be surprised to see the topside extend much beyond the .7300/20 area.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
NZD/USD 0.7276 0.7200 0.7365 0.7223 - 0.7369

Friday 23rd September 2:00pm(NZT)
The New Zealand dollar sits relatively unchanged against the greenback since our report on Tuesday. Volatility has been seen during the week within a .7280/.7370 type range on the back of a disappointment in the latest GDT dairy auction and respective monetary policy decisions from both the US Fed and RBNZ, which were seen as mildly local currency negative. Next week features trade data on Monday and building/business confidence data on Friday. Look for US events to dominate and for support again to be evident in the broad .7200/.7235 zone. On the topside resistance is eyed in the .7365/85 zone.
The current interbank midrate is:    NZDUSD 0.7285

The interbank range this week has been:    NZDUSD 0.7255 - 0.7369
Tuesday 20th September 2:00pm(NZT)
The New Zealand dollar sits near those levels reported in trade on Friday against the USD currently. A retracement was seen on Friday after the better than expected US inflation data, although lows were limited to ahead of .7250. This week should be busy with both the RBNZ and FOMC interest rate decision due on Thursday morning (NZ time). Neither central bank is expected to move although the accompanying commentary will be closely scrutinised. We lack any bias ahead of such key announcements although note the continued support for buying NZD on dips at present.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
NZD/USD 0.7299 0.7200 0.7385 0.7235 - 0.7354

Friday 16th September 2:30pm(NZT)
The New Zealand dollar is trading near those reported levels from Tuesday in trade against the USD currently. The lack of apparent volatility belies what has actually been a busy week which saw the NZD trade down to around .7235 against the greenback. Much of the move can be put down to risk-related selling which was seen earlier in the week as global equities fell heavily. Focus for now will be on tonight’s US data, although next week’s respective interest rate decisions from both the Fed and RBNZ on Thursday morning (NZ time) will dominate over the coming week. It will also pay to keep a close watch on the performance of offshore equity markets. First resistance (minor) is noted in the .7365/85 zone, whilst key support can be seen in the broad .7200/35 zone below.
The current interbank midrate is:    NZDUSD 0.7311

The interbank range this week has been:    NZDUSD 0.7235 - 0.7413
Tuesday 13th September 1:30pm(NZT)
The New Zealand dollar has fallen heavily against the greenback since our report last week. This has been on the back of comments from US Fed officials on Friday which raised the odds on pricing for a US rate hike later this month. The comments drove the USD higher and saw the VIX index of volatility spike 39% as US equities underwent their largest correction since the British Brexit vote. The comments took the gloss of what had a been a good week for the kiwi which saw it reach highs around .7485 against the USD. Focus for this week will be on further US events and Thursday’s NZ GDP data. Look for support under .7300 to hold the key to sustained upside for now.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
NZD/USD 0.7348 0.7290 0.7490 0.7291 - 0.7485

Thursday 8th September 2:30pm(NZT)
The New Zealand dollar rocketed higher against the USD in trade this week. The move comes on the back of the weaker than expected key US data and after the latest GDT dairy auction saw another solid gain, although the US data was the larger driver. The extent of the move has been surprising, although the direction reflects a continuation of the theme seen for most of 2016. Local focus starts next week with current account data on Wednesday, although the June quarter GDP report on Thursday will carry more weighting. We continue to favour the topside, although a consolidation back to the .7350/80 support area looks warranted in the short term.
The current interbank midrate is:    NZDUSD 0.7465

The interbank range this week has been:    NZDUSD 0.7228 - 0.7485
Tuesday 6th September 3:30pm(NZT)
The New Zealand dollar has firmed against the greenback in the wake of Friday’s weaker than expected US employment data. With little in the way of key US or NZ data (dairy prices tonight) we expect the current support for the NZD to remain in place this week given the current yield appeal of the NZD and likely long wait for the next Fed rate hike. This has us favouring buying dips towards .7200 on the week, although the quiet calendar means any topside much beyond the recent highs (.7380) looks unlikely.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
NZD/USD 0.7307 0.7200 0.7380 0.7205 - 0.7350

Friday 2nd September 2:30pm(NZT)
The New Zealand dollar has had a quiet week ahead of today’s key US employment data. Support ahead of the .7200 level is increasing in significance and has again held the decline. This weakness was seen earlier in the week came as the greenback strengthened on the back of the comments from Fed officials which pointed to the looming need for another US rate hike. Look for today’s US data to provide the critical answer on the likely timing of this hike, current expectations are for a 180k gain in jobs. Expect the NZD to probe last week’s highs should the data be a flop.
The current interbank midrate is:    NZDUSD 0.7287

The interbank range this week has been:    NZDUSD 0.7205 - 0.7376
Tuesday 30th August 2:00pm(NZT)
The New Zealand dollar has eased against the greenback following the comments on US rates from senior Fed officials at the weekend in Jackson Hole. Support at the .7200/10 area has held the sell-off so far in the wake of USD buying as expectations for a Fed move as early as next month nearly doubled to ~42%. Focus for this week is on Friday’s US employment data which will be critical to next month’s Fed decision. Look for resistance from Friday’s highs near .7380 to cap rallies over the days ahead whilst on the downside a break of .7200 brings more important support in the .7080/.7100 area into focus. We favour marginally selling around .7260/70 prior to Friday’s data.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
NZD/USD 0.7253 0.7200 0.7380 0.7211 - 0.7376

Friday 26th August 3:30pm(NZT)
The New Zealand dollar remains anchored near 73c against the greenback in present trade after a lacklustre week which saw the market sit on the sidelines ahead of this weekend’s detail which is due to come out of Jackson Hole. First resistance at .7350 has kept the rally in check so far this week and has been helped in part by talk of large options interest around the .7325 level. Look for headlines out of the Jackson Hole meeting to drive trade later today and volatility to pick up. Levels to note are .7200 on the downside and .7350 above, a break of which should open next resistance around .7400.
The current interbank midrate is:    NZDUSD 0.7311

The interbank range this week has been:    NZDUSD 0.7210 - 0.7344
Tuesday 23rd August 1:30pm(NZT)
The New Zealand dollar is trading at levels near those reported on Friday against the greenback. Demand was found yesterday ahead of the .7200 mark after both the NZD and AUD eased on the back of increased buying of the USD following the comments of various Fed members (USD supportive). A brief spike has been seen this morning to around .7325 during Governor Wheeler’s Dunedin speech although for now the selling in the .7320/40 area continues to rebuff rallies. Look for focus this week to come from offshore, especially in the US during the Jackson Hole central banker meeting at the end of the week.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
NZD/USD 0.7300 0.7200 0.7350 0.7201 - 0.7325

Friday 19th August 1:30pm(NZT)
The New Zealand dollar has moved higher against the USD this week on the back of broad based USD weakness and local data leads which provided upside surprises. Support around the .7200 level emerged as the week progressed and for now the momentum is positive. We favour buying dips towards the emerging support next week although for now selling in the .7320/40 area has limited rallies. With a mainly quiet week which features just NZ trade data on Wednesday look for US leads to dictate and recent ranges to cover most of the trade (with an upside bias).
The current interbank midrate is:    NZDUSD 0.7271

The interbank range this week has been:    NZDUSD 0.7171 - 0.7318
Tuesday 16th August 1:30pm(NZT)
The New Zealand dollar has traded within a range around .7200 against the USD since our report on Friday. Friday’s weaker than expected US data was met with sellers above .7250 which then saw the NZD drift towards .7160, in part on the back of weaker than expected Chinese data which was released late in the day. We are expecting a relatively quiet week this week with most of the event risk due in the next 24 hours. Thursday mornings (NZ time) US FOMC minutes should also be watched. For now we favour more trade within recent ranges and favour buying toward .7160 or .7100 (less aggressive entry).
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
NZD/USD 0.7207 0.7085 0.7350 0.7111 - 0.7318

Friday 12th August 2:30pm(NZT)
The New Zealand dollar has lifted against the greenback since our report on Tuesday, although sits well off its highs set near .7340 yesterday. The move came over the RBNZ OCR announcement which saw the delivery of a well-flagged 0.25% rate cut and the flagging of further to come based on current RBNZ projections which continue to point to difficulty in reaching the inflation target. The reaction of the currency highlights the difficulty facing the RBNZ as it battles weak tradable inflation and ultra-stimulatory global central bank policies which make NZ’s relative yields look attractive. Look to US data for direction tonight and for the NZD to attract buyers next week in the .7100/20 zone.
The current interbank midrate is:    NZDUSD 0.7195

The interbank range this week has been:    NZDUSD 0.7089 - 0.7318
Tuesday 9th August 2:30pm(NZT)
The New Zealand dollar has eased in recent trade against the greenback. This comes on the back of much better than expected US employment data on Friday and ahead of this Thursday’s RBNZ interest rate decision. Expect the statement accompanying the decision to set direction over the ensuing days as the market looks for further indications of additional cuts in the months ahead. Expect a 0.25% cut on Thursday and any lack of an indication on additional reductions ahead to be accompanied by a short squeeze higher.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
NZD/USD 0.7154 0.6950 0.7260 0.7089 - 0.7255

Friday 5th August 12:30pm(NZT)
The New Zealand dollar has been largely directionless in trade against the greenback this week. Key local data was slight, although did include a pick-up in the latest GDT dairy pricing data, although this was quickly offset by weakness in the labour cost index. Look to the US data later today for direction heading into next week’s RBNZ monetary policy decision (Thursday). At current levels we have little bias, although would favour buying USD near the week’s highs above .7250. First support is seen around .7140 (very minor) although key support remains distant at .6950.
The current interbank midrate is:    NZDUSD 0.7174

The interbank range this week has been:    NZDUSD 0.7081 - 0.7255
Tuesday 2nd August 3:00pm(NZT)
The New Zealand dollar has continued to rise against the USD on the back of a continued sell-off in the greenback after Friday’s weaker than expected key US growth data. The numbers had the market further reducing its expectation of a 2016 US rate hike, backing-up those reductions already seen earlier in the week. Dairy price data and NZ employment numbers are in focus (and the RBA today), although again expect Friday’s US data (employment) to have a significant bearing. The volatility of the USD will again make the direction difficult to see this week, especially given the disconnect that the NZD has to the RBNZ’s desired path (as global factors dictate).
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
NZD/USD 0.7176 0.6950 0.7230 0.6985 - 0.7229

Friday 29th July 1:45pm(NZT)
The New Zealand dollar has firmed against the greenback this week on the back of an overall easing in USD against many of its key trading peers. Local data has been lacking this week. Gains for the NZD have come in recent hours as the USD eased after the US Fed revealed yesterday that they were in no hurry to raise rates. Highs around the .7120 level have capped so far. On the downside some initial support has been seen above .7000, although key support remains around .6950. Look for some volatility later today over the BOJ monetary policy announcement. First focus locally is the ANZ business confidence data today before attention turns to dairy price and employment numbers next Wednesday.
The current interbank midrate is:    NZDUSD 0.7106

The interbank range this week has been:    NZDUSD 0.6963 - 0.7121
Tuesday 26th July 2:00pm(NZT)
The New Zealand dollar has consolidated against the USD in opening trade so far this week. The lateral movement comes after a big week last week which saw the NZD fall by 1.6% against its US counterpart. This was on the back of a weak local inflation print and moves by the RBNZ to tackle an overvalued exchange rate and heated property market. Expect a quiet week this week at least until Thursday mornings (NZ time) FOMC meeting and Friday’s BOJ meeting (watched for NZD/JPY flow). We favour selling towards .7070 for another look at .6950 in time.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
NZD/USD .6999 .6950 .7070 .6959 - .7068

Friday 22nd July 1:00pm(NZT)
The New Zealand dollar has continued to fall against the USD this week. An aggressive stance by the RBNZ in relation to signalling its discontent with the high value of the NZD and its impact on the central bank’s inflation objective when combined with the stricter bank residential property lending criteria it is setting has seen the market greatly increase the probability of interest rates falling under 2% this year. Monday’s weak inflation data served as a reminder of the RBNZ’s problem. This has us continuing to favour selling rallies towards .7070 for now. On the downside a break of .6950 should usher in .6890/00 and .6840/50.
The current interbank midrate is:    NZDUSD 0.6994

The interbank range this week has been:    NZDUSD 0.6953 - 0.7191
Tuesday 19th July 1:00pm(NZT)
The New Zealand dollar remains under considerable pressure against the USD in trade this week. Unscheduled announcements by the RBNZ have been primary drivers of the weakness in recent days as they moved to introduce further macro-prudential housing measures in a discussion paper today and announced an economic update for this Thursday. Today’s announcement and yesterday’s low inflation data has seen the market move to now heavily favour a rate cut in August. We favour selling rallies towards .7125 currently and will look for this move to extend towards .6960 support in time.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
NZD/USD .7032 .6960 .7325 .7031 - .7323

Friday 15th July 2:00pm(NZT)
The New Zealand dollar continued to find persistent selling against the USD above 73 cents this week. The extended levels of the NZ TWI which had traded at levels around 7-8% above current RBNZ forecasts earlier in the week have given way to a sell-off in the index as many crosses pared their recent gains after yesterday’s announcement by the RBNZ of a special economic market update next week. Look to tonight’s US data for direction and the NZ inflation data on Monday. We continue to favour buying USD over the NZD at levels nearer .7300.
The current interbank midrate is:    NZDUSD 0.7170

The interbank range this week has been:    NZDUSD 0.7156 - 0.7322
Tuesday 12th July 1:00pm(NZT)
The New Zealand dollar has eased from its highs reached last week against the USD which were seen at the close of trade. The move up came on the back of the RBNZ inspired initial move as the market bought the risk and commodity based currencies in response to the better than expected US employment report. Falls have been seen in early trade this week on the back of what would be considered a more normal response of an appreciating USD post the US data. Look for offshore events to dictate this week in light of the empty local event calendar. We favour a sell bias (buy USD) on rallies given the extended levels of many NZD crosses and the NZD TWI.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
NZD/USD 0.7229 0.7075 0.7310 0.7081 - 0.7306

Friday 8th July 12:00pm(NZT)
The New Zealand dollar has had a choppy week against the USD which saw it decline in the middle of the week on the back of international market volatility. This move was reversed in a move higher in trade late yesterday in a reaction to the RBNZ’s weak response to expedite further macro-prudential measures to tackle NZ’s housing crisis. Support was seen around .7075 during the week and should be expected again on any dips to the .7050/75 region. Tonight’s US employment data will hold the key for the next shift where the market would appear exposed to strength which may reignite rate hike expectations and initiate a rally in the USD.
The current interbank midrate is:    NZDUSD 0.7218

The interbank range this week has been:    NZDUSD 0.7081 - 0.7241
Tuesday 5th July 2:00pm(NZT)
The New Zealand dollar continues to track higher in trade against the USD this week. The move reflects a continuation of the positive mood which developed for risk last week and comes as the market looks to embrace yield currencies and those deemed to have a reduced exposure to the UK/European political situation. Look for offshore events to dictate trade this week. Data of interest in the US is headed by the employment release on Friday. We favour taking advantage of the extended NZD rally to buy USD currently, although note NZ’s favourable standing given the low likelihood of US rate hikes and political uncertainty in many countries abroad.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
NZD/USD 0.7206 0.7150 0.7300 0.7010 - 0.7241

Friday 1st July 3:00pm(NZT)
The New Zealand dollar has rebounded in trade this week against the USD. The move comes on the back of the lift in confidence and move up in global equity bourses during the week which came as the market embraced the moves by global central banks to shore up the financial markets during the week. The local calendar is largely empty next week which will again ensure the focus is on offshore markets and US data. Support is seen in the broad .6940/75 zone, which is now distant whilst initial resistance is nearby (.7150/65) and then .7300. We favour caution at current levels given that many global equity bourses have now risen to levels near or above those seen prior to the UK’s vote.
The current interbank midrate is:    NZDUSD 0.7130

The interbank range this week has been:    NZDUSD 0.6982 - 0.7197
Tuesday 28th June 2:00pm(NZT)
The New Zealand dollar has fallen sharply against the USD after Friday’s UK vote to leave the EU. Volatility has been extreme after the news as risk currencies slumped in response to the prospect of a period of elevated uncertainty and reduced global growth. Expect another volatile week as the markets gyrate over headlines out of the UK and the EU, whilst in the US data of interest starts with numbers on GDP today. Initial support is eyed in the broad .6940/75 zone a break of which opens .6900 and .6850. Resistance has again formed in the .7150/65 area. We strongly favour selling rallies near first resistance in this environment.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
NZD/USD 0.7022 0.6940 0.7165 0.6982 - 0.7288

Friday 24th June 3:00pm(NZT)
The New Zealand dollar has surged against the USD this week ahead of the result this afternoon in today’s UK EU referendum. The move comes as the market chases the ‘risk’ currencies in anticipation of a ‘remain’ win ahead of the result. Highs near .7300 have traded in recent hours in a move which looks well extended currently; especially should the result not conform to the market’s expectation. Immediate support is seen at .7150/60, resistance beyond today’s highs should again form in the .7375/.7400 zone. Expect extreme volatility today as the referendum results flow throughout the afternoon. We favour taking advantage of any further spike’s to buy USD’s against the NZD in the short run.
The current interbank midrate is:    NZDUSD 0.7209

The interbank range this week has been:    NZDUSD 0.7034 - 0.7288
Tuesday 21st June 2:00pm(NZT)
The New Zealand dollar continues to remain hostage to fluctuations in global risk sentiment in trade this week. Polls from the UK which indicate a greater likelihood of Britain remaining within the EU have seen global equities and ‘risk currencies like the NZD marked higher against the USD so far this week.  Data from NZ will have no bearing on the NZD this week, so look for the Brexit news and US data to dominate. First resistance is nearby at .7150/60 beyond which we look to the broad .7230/.7275 for the next level of supply. Support is seen at last week’s lows through to .6940.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
NZD/USD 0.7121 0.6940 0.7160 0.6964 - 0.7130

Friday 17th June 3:00pm(NZT)
The New Zealand dollar sits relatively unchanged against the USD since Tuesday’s report. Sharp moves have been seen in the interim however and come as the market grapples with periods of risk aversion based on Brexit concerns. Dips which have been limited to .6960 this week (twice) came initially on risk aversion selling and then on the back of NZD/JPY supply after yesterday’s BOJ policy hold. A better than expected Q1 GDP report earlier in the day was capped ahead of .7100 prior to the second sell-off ,although key resistance still lies in the .7150/60 area. Support is seen in and ahead of the .6940/60 zone as evidenced this week. Next week is very quiet locally on the data front so look for Brexit volatility to drive.
The current interbank midrate is:    NZDUSD 0.7065

The interbank range this week has been:    NZDUSD 0.6964 - 0.7114
Tuesday 14th June 2:00pm(NZT)
Recent trade in the NZD has seen it retrace some of last week’s impressive rally which took it to highs against the USD not seen in over year. Souring global risk sentiment has dominated the flow since our report on Friday and comes as investors fret over political uncertainty in the US and in Europe/UK. Externals factor such as these will have a high impact on the NZD this week although the Q1 GDP release on Thursday has the potential to spark some activity. Other focus will be on US data and the FOMC meeting on Thursday morning (NZ time). Resistance lies around last week’s highs whilst support is noted in the .6940/60 zone. We anticipate current levels being near mid range of our expectations for the next week or so.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
NZD/USD 0.7041 0.6940 0.7160 0.6894 - 0.7147

Friday 10th June 3:00pm(NZT)
The NZD has continued to advance against its US counterpart this week. A weak USD post Friday’s US employment miss and a RBNZ which is unnerved over the state of the Auckland property market (as it left rates on hold yesterday) has led to the latest bout of demand. This has seen the NZD/USD exchange rate trade to highs not seen in over a year. Resistance at .7050/60 which capped twice earlier this year provided no barrier to yesterday’s statement and now will form the support area to pull-backs. GDP and dairy price data are key events next week although the influence of the USD will remain high. First resistance is at .7150/60, .7200 and then .7235. Momentum points to further upside although caution is required after the rapid recent gains.
The current interbank midrate is:    NZDUSD 0.7105

The interbank range this week has been:    NZDUSD 0.6813 - 0.7147
Tuesday 7th June 3:00pm(NZT)
The rally in the New Zealand dollar against the USD which began early last week has continued since our last report. Initial strength last week came from better than expected NZ and AU data and culminated on Friday with a large miss in the latest US nonfarm employment report which saw the USD lurch immediately lower. Sentiment towards the NZD this week will be dominated by the RBNZ interest rate decision and commentary on Thursday. This afternoon’s RBA cash decision will also interest, especially given the recent strong gains in the NZD/AUD cross. First resistance is now eyed near Friday’s highs in the .6960/.6970 area and then critically .7050/60. Look for buying interest to emerge in the .6835/50 zone.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
NZD/USD 0.6915 0.6850 0.6970 0.6709 - 0.6961

Thursday 2nd June 1:30pm(NZT)
Buyers have returned to support the NZD this week. Much of the strength can be put down to the firm leads that came from across the Tasman headed by the Australian Q1 GDP which easily beat expectations. Local events included strong albeit volatile building consents numbers, a solid lift in ANZ business confidence, and positive latest GDT dairy auction. It is too early to say whether this week’s rally marks a turn in the fortunes of the NZD ahead of tomorrow’s US data, although for now the outlook appears more positive. Immediate resistance is pegged around .6850 and then .6920. Critical resistance remains just above .7050 which looks unlikely to feature during the week ahead. Support is eyed near the week’s lows.
The current interbank midrate is:    NZDUSD 0.6822

The interbank range this week has been:    NZDUSD 0.6677 - 0.6830
Tuesday 31st May 2:30pm(NZT)
Sentiment towards the NZD remains cautious in trade so far this week. Comments from US Fed officials continue to support the USD in recent trade and again it looks likely that USD sentiment will be the dominant driver during the week, especially with the non-farm payrolls report on Friday- being so pivotal to the coming June FOMC rate decision. Local items of interest include today’s ANZ Business confidence survey and the next in the GDT dairy auction series with the latter being in particular focus after Fonterra’s low 2016/17 season price forecast last week. We favour selling rallies for now towards .6750, support beyond .6660 is pegged around .6550.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
NZD/USD 0.6715 0.6660 0.6780 0.6677 - 0.6772

Friday 27th May 2:00pm(NZT)
We have seen another choppy week of price action for the NZD, but nothing to suggest a departure from the gradual downtrend against the USD that has been in place for the past few weeks. We did infact briefly trade to fresh cycle lows below 0.6700 during yesterday’s trading session. This move was triggered by Fonterra’s farm gate milk price forecasts that came in at the lower end of expectation. The NZD has recovered somewhat overnight after disappointing US durable goods data, but critically it was capped around the 0.6760 area and this keeps the focus on the NZD downside. Tonight could be key with US GDP data and Fed Chair Yellen speaking. If both those releases support the USD, the NZD will no doubt test levels under 0.6700 once again.
The current interbank midrate is:    NZDUSD 0.6755

The interbank range this week has been:    NZDUSD 0.6694 - 0.6806
Tuesday 24th May 2:00pm(NZT)
The New Zealand dollar is largely unchanged in trade since Friday having given up yesterday’s gains in overnight trade. An easing CRB commodity index and firm USD eroded the initial weeks gains. These came from a firming AUD and move by a local bank yesterday to a ‘no change’ in rates by the RBNZ in June. Expect external influences to drive this week given the lack of local data. This has us continuing to favour trading within a .6700/.6850 type range on the week. We marginally favour selling towards .6850 for now.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
NZD/USD 0.6750 0.6700 0.6850 0.6712 - 0.6842

Friday 20th May 3:00pm(NZT)
The New Zealand dollar has eased in trade this week against the USD. The move comes on the back of a generalised move higher in the USD this week after better than expected key US data and a more hawkish than expected set of FOMC minutes. Declines have been limited to ahead of .6700 so far, whilst on the topside gains were capped ahead of .6850 on Tuesday as the AUD rallied and dragged the NZD higher in response to the RBA minutes. Next week is set to be another quiet week for local releases so again look for the USD and commodities to take the lead. We favour selling towards .6850 for now.
The current interbank midrate is:    NZDUSD 0.6763

The interbank range this week has been:    NZDUSD 0.6712 - 0.6842
Tuesday 17th May 2:00pm(NZT)
The New Zealand dollar is drifting in trade against the USD currently, although has risen from its lows set after the open around .6750. The data week locally is relatively quiet this week, although the RBNZ Inflation Expectations survey later today should provide a passing interest. The next in the GDT dairy auction series is due for release tonight where current futures prices indicate a lift in the region of 4-6%. The calendar looks set to leave the NZD open to direction from the USD and commodities and given the relatively light US schedule (note US Inflation and the FOMC minutes) we favour trade within .6720/.6855 on the week.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
NZD/USD 0.6779 0.6720 0.6850 0.6717 - 0.6846

Friday 13th May 3:00pm(NZT)
The New Zealand dollar has lifted from its lows against the USD (set near .6720) this week to sit largely unchanged from its opening levels in current trade. New support has formed around these lows over the week as the pressure exerted on commodities moderated during the week. The move up was helped by the release of the Financial Stability report although so far the bounce has been capped by resistance in the .6850/60 area. Look to US data for direction later today, expect external drivers to also dominate trade next week.
The current interbank midrate is:    NZDUSD 0.6800

The interbank range this week has been:    NZDUSD 0.6717 - 0.6877
Tuesday 10th May 2:00pm(NZT)
The New Zealand dollar has continued to march lower in trade this week. The move continues on the theme from last week which saw the commodity currencies suffer heavily on the back of any downwards shift in key commodities pricing. The RBA rate cut provided the initial pressure, whilst another sharp fall in the price of oil, iron ore and steel has been noted overnight. Support is seen at .6660. First resistance is now noted in the .6800/10 and then .6850/60 beyond. We lack a strong view, although for now the momentum clearly favours further downside at present.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
NZD/USD 0.6733 0.6660 0.6800 0.6733 - 0.7053

Friday 6th May 2:00pm(NZT)
The New Zealand dollar once again retreated sharply from the .7050 area against the USD this week. The move began on Tuesday after the RBA cut interest rates by 25 bps to 1.75% in a move that was expected by about half of the market. Lows have been limited to ahead of .6860 so far and have come on the back of a subsequent decline in demand for currencies with commodity and risk exposure. The double top at .7050/60 is now very important resistance, whilst on the downside support comes in around .6800. Look for tonight’s US data to set direction tonight, we favour buying towards .6800 although a break of here risks a deeper correction especially should .6750 also break. USD sentiment will be key next week.
The current interbank midrate is:    NZDUSD 0.6886

The interbank range this week has been:    NZDUSD 0.6861 - 0.7053
Tuesday 3rd May 2:20pm(NZT)
The New Zealand dollar has continued to firm against the USD since our report on Friday. The advance comes on the back of further soft US data which has put the USD under pressure in recent trade. Caution from the US Fed and a positive assessment of last week’s RBNZ statement have added to the demand for the NZD. Look for direction this week to come from the heavy US data schedule which culminates with employment data on Friday. NZ employment data tomorrow is also a market mover. Resistance is seen at .7055/60, a break of this area brings next resistance in the broad .7160/.7230 zone into view. We favour buying NZD dips, although key support at .6800 is now distant.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
NZD/USD 0.7042 0.6800 0.7060 0.6821 - 0.7047

Friday 29th April 2:00pm(NZT)
The New Zealand dollar has had a volatile week of trade against the USD this week. Initial declines were driven by a weakness in commodities and the drag provided by the AUD$ on the back of a particularly weak Q1 Australian inflation out-turn. A cautious Fed statement yesterday and RBNZ which failed to move on local rates, saw the NZD rally strongly out of lows ahead of .6800, which now forms the basis of the first support area. Resistance is noted at last week’s highs above the .7050 level. Look for NZ Q1 employment data on Wednesday next week to help drive trade in the NZD next week.
The current interbank midrate is:    NZDUSD 0.6965

The interbank range this week has been:    NZDUSD 0.6821 - 0.6987
Tuesday 26th April 2:20pm(NZT)
The New Zealand dollar has continued to decline against the USD since our report on Friday. The move represents a continuation of the theme set towards the end of last week which saw the commodity currencies decline towards the week’s end. This week will be dominated by the busy event calendar which is heavy in US data points and includes the key US FOMC and RBNZ interest rate meetings. These events will dominate trade on Thursday. Support for the NZD is around .6825 and then .6750 while last week’s highs around .7050 presents the key topside resistance, although some may be seen at .6950 prior.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
NZD/USD 0.6869 0.6825 0.7055 0.6836 - 0.7055

Friday 22nd April 2:00pm(NZT)
The New Zealand dollar has fallen notably during trade in the last 24 hours after earlier having posted highs above .7050 against the USD during the week. Once again it has been commodity considerations (and to a lesser extent, risk) which has been the key driver this week. This saw the NZD rally for much of the week after the initial Doha slump, although the fall in the CRB index and slump in the EUR overnight has put the NZD on a soft footing into the week’s end. Look for the OCR decision on Thursday to dominate the shortened ANZAC week, current expectations place an ~30% chance on the possibility of a rate cut to 2.00%. Look for support below .6900 to be seen in the broad .6825/.6870 zone where we favour buying the NZD.
The current interbank midrate is:    NZDUSD .6919

The interbank range this week has been:    NZDUSD .6844 - .7055
Tuesday 19th April 2:40pm(NZT)
The New Zealand dollar is sitting on its yearly highs in current trade. Resistance from late March has broken after the NZD/USD enjoyed a sharp bounce after yesterday’s earlier sell-off post the Doha oil meeting disappointment. There has been evidence of stop loss buying after the resistance was breached. Commodity drivers have again been a key factor behind the move although the USD (DXY index) has fallen since the middle of last week, local inflation data yesterday has also helped somewhat. Look for a quiet data week locally and the NZD to derive its sentiment from offshore events, although tonight’s dairy auction should provide a passing interest.
Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
NZD/USD 0.6991 0.6820 0.7050 0.6824 - .6995

Friday 15th April 2:00pm(NZT)
The New Zealand dollar sits largely unchanged since our report on Tuesday, after giving up interim gains to the .6950 level since. Much of the falls from the highs occurred early yesterday on the back of significant selling in the NZD against the AUD. Local data of interest has been lacking, although some influence was attributed to the unexpected adoption of an easing bias by the Monetary Authority of Singapore whom were seen as a leader in adopting such a bias early in 2015 (after which the RBNZ followed). Look for local inflation data on Monday to provide fresh direction and give further basis on the timing of the next RBNZ move.
The current interbank midrate is:    NZDUSD 0.6858

The interbank range this week has been:    NZDUSD 0.6774 - 0.6952
Tuesday 12th April 2:30pm(NZT)
The New Zealand dollar remains range-bound against the USD in trade so far this week. A lack of important local and US data has been a factor in the moribund trade, although things should pick up later this week with US retail sales and inflation numbers due. Other factors to consider will be the level of demand for the JPY (against both the USD and NZD) and commodity/risk currency enthusiasm. For now we expect more range trading and have a slight bias to the NZ dollar topside.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
NZD/USD 0.6861 0.6750 0.6965 0.6762 - 0.6878

Friday 8th April 2:00pm(NZT)
The New Zealand dollar has eased against the USD during the majority of trade this week. A lack of key data has meant most of the moves have derived from offshore events, although a slip on the latest NZIER business confidence read was noted, and a small move higher was also seen after the latest GDT dairy auction. Strong demand for the JPY has placed the NZD under pressure in recent trade. Look for offshore events to again dictate next week, for now some support has emerged ahead of .6750, although next support below isn’t until around .6670. First minor resistance is noted around .6870, although stronger resistance lies at cent higher.
The current interbank midrate is:    NZDUSD 0.6784

The interbank range this week has been:    NZDUSD 0.6762 - 0.6926
Tuesday 5th April 2:30pm(NZT)
The New Zealand dollar has eased since our report on Friday in a move which has been led by easing commodity prices overnight, solid US data-flow late on Friday and a poor NZIER business confidence reading release this morning. It is a quiet week for the local events this week, with the only real event of note being the GDT dairy auction tonight. Events across the Tasman should have a reasonable degree of impact, most notably so the RBA monetary policy meeting this afternoon. We expect support to emerge on this dip in the broad .6750/90 zone.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
NZD/USD 0.6805 0.6790 0.6965 0.6729 - 0.6966

Friday 1st April 3:30pm(NZT)
The New Zealand dollar has moved significantly higher against the USD in trade so far this week. This has seen the NZD/USD exchange rate deal at levels not seen since June 2015. Highs around .6965 have traded twice this week after a dovish speech which was delivered by Fed Chair Janet Yellen. This saw the USD decline sharply across the board. This level (.6965/70) now forms the first resistance whilst first support (minor) now lies around .6870. The immediate test for the NZD will now be tonight’s key US employment data, a break above the .7000 area should open the March and Feb. 2015 lows in the .7160/75 area over time.
The current interbank midrate is:    NZDUSD 0.6922

The interbank range this week has been:    NZDUSD 0.6671 - 0.6966
Tuesday 22nd March 3:30pm(NZT)
The New Zealand dollar has drifted lower since our last report a week ago. Losses came about from factors which included hawkish US Fed member comments, easing commodity currencies (as lower oil/iron ore prices weighed on the AUD) and a moderate blip higher in risk selling after the Brussels terrorist attacks. Losses have moderated in trade this week after weaker than expected overnight US data. Expect a relatively quiet week this week up into the US employment numbers on Friday. Local data of note is very light. Key support is seen around .6575, although initial support nearer .6670 should hold until Friday.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
NZD/USD 0.6734 0.6670 0.6905 0.6671 - 0.6776

Tuesday 22nd March 3:30pm(NZT)
The New Zealand dollar has eased from its highs after rallying to around .6870 since our report on Friday. The move up was sharp and came after a more dovish than expected US interest rate meeting on Thursday. Continued positive sentiment towards commodities and commodity based currencies also helped the gains. The .6890/.6905 zone has capped this rally so far. This is the third time since October last year that rallies above .6850 have failed. We expect this area to again cap this week given the light local data calendar.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
NZD/USD 0.6763 0.6575 0.6905 0.6577 - 0.6874

Friday 18th March 1:30pm(NZT)
The New Zealand dollar sits marginally higher on the week against the Australian dollar in current trade. This comes after the cross initially weakened on the back of the further strong gains seen in the key commodities which affect the AUD. Lows were seen around the .8830 (1.1325) level before the cross has rallied over the last 36 hours to again challenge resistance at .8970 (1.1148 support). The move up has come on the back of the reduced liquidity in the NZD/USD exchange rate that has been seen on the back of the heavy USD liquidation selling that has occurred post the FOMC statement yesterday, and to a much lesser extent the positive NZ Q4 GDP print. Light data calendars from both countries next week mean that moves in the cross will take their lead from liquidity and commodity price drivers. We favour lower  NZD/higher AUD levels again.
The current interbank midrate is:    NZDAUD 0.8937    AUDNZD 1.1190

The interbank range this week has been:    NZDAUD 0.8835 - 0.8971    AUDNZD 1.1148 - 1.1319
Tuesday 15th March 1:30pm(NZT)
The New Zealand dollar has fallen sharply against the USD so far this week, although not before rallying to highs around .6770 on Friday. The move up came on the back of further appreciation in commodity currencies after the CRB index gained 1% on the day, a move which was once again heavily influenced by stronger oil prices. Last week saw the NZD come under pressure on the back of the surprise decision by the RBNZ to cut interest rates to 2.25%. The bounce afterwards was stronger than anticipated in a large part thanks to the AUD/USD exchange rate which moved to highs just shy of .7600. The gains have since eroded overnight on the back of a correction lower in commodities. Expect more high volatility this week especially on Thursday over the FOMC and later NZ Q4 GDP announcements.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
NZD/USD 0.6679 0.6620 0.6775 0.6623 - 0.6810

Friday 11th March 1:30pm(NZT)
The New Zealand dollar has fallen sharply against the USD this week. The move comes after yesterday’s surprise move by the RBNZ to cut interest rates to 2.25%. The RBNZ also kept the door wide open for further cuts in 2016. Some pressure was also seen earlier in the week on the back of Fonterra’s downgrade to the forecast dairy payout. Of interest next week will be the latest in the GDT dairy auction price series and the following Q4 GDP data. We favour selling rallies after this week’s RBNZ policy move and expect rallies in the .6700/.6720 region to present selling opportunities. Support on the downside is seen around .6550.
The current interbank midrate is:    NZDUSD 0.6671

The interbank range this week has been:    NZDUSD 0.6623 - 0.6819
Friday 4th March 6:00pm(NZT)
The New Zealand dollar has had a strong finish to the week and has clawed back most of last Friday’s decline which was seen after the raft of better than expected U.S. data. The NZD has been pulled higher this week on the back of the strong demand seen for commodity currencies over the week. This has seen the NZD/USD lift especially when viewed against the back-drop of the strong AUD/USD which has rallied to highs not seen since early Dec 2015. U.S. data will set the tone of trade for tonight and will hold the key to whether the resistance at .6780 can be broken; offshore events will also again dominate next week into the lead-up to Thursday’s RBNZ monetary policy meeting.
The current interbank midrate is:    NZDUSD 0.6722

The interbank range this week has been:    NZDUSD 0.6569 - 0.6775
Tuesday 1st March 2:30pm(NZT)
The New Zealand dollar has fallen sharply since our last report against the USD on the back of strong U.S. data-flow on Friday and a downgraded assessment of the local economy by ANZ bank yesterday which saw them introducing a call for two rate cuts in 2016. A sharp drop in the latest ANZ business confidence read and weak building consents numbers have also weighed on sentiment. Of immediate interest for the NZD will be tonight’s GDT dairy price auction, although the busy U.S. data calendar will quickly takeover. Support below .6550 is pegged around .6450 with .6530 also noted on route. Initial resistance formed around the .6620 level yesterday, although solid resistance lies much higher.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
NZD/USD 0.6603 0.6550 0.6780 0.6569 - 0.6775

Friday 26th February 2:00pm(NZT)
The New Zealand dollar remains well ensconced within recent ranges in trade so far this week. Early week gains in response to firming commodity prices and a stronger AUD gave way to losses mid week on the back of similar pressures and waning risk appetite. These issues look set to dominate again next week given the light data calendar. We favour buying dips but note the distance to key support in the .6550-.6585 area. Resistance beyond .6750 lies in the .6880/.6905 zone.
The current interbank midrate is:    NZDUSD 0.6746

The interbank range this week has been:    NZDUSD 0.6569 - 0.6752
Tuesday 23th February 4:00pm(NZT)
The New Zealand dollar has put in a strong showing against its US counterpart in trade overnight. Resistance at .6680 broke after heavy buying of the key commodity currencies was seen, buying which gained additional momentum after the solid gains in oil, industrial metal and iron ore pricing (and NZX dairy pricing for the NZD). Early week rallies in global equity indices have also helped increase the demand for the more risk sensitive currencies like the NZD. The largely empty local data calendar means these forces will again hold sway this week. Resistance is eyed from the overnight highs (~.6725) to .6750. Very minor support should be seen in the .6675/85 area although .6550 is key support lower.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
NZD/USD 0.6700 0.6550 0.6750 0.6548 - 0.6726

Friday 19th February 2:00pm(NZT)
The New Zealand dollar has been well contained in trade this week against the USD after finding buyers around the .6550 level, whilst sellers in the .6670/80 region capped the rallies on three occasions over the course of the week. The more muted ranges can be put down to the reduced volatility in offshore financial markets and the relatively light local data schedule. Another quiet local data schedule next week which features trade numbers on Friday means the NZ dollar will again take its cue from offshore events. A continued reduction in offshore financial market volatility means that there is a good chance that the NZD/USD will remain within a .6550-.6750 type range. We have a marginal upside bias.
The current interbank midrate is:    NZDUSD 0.6634

The interbank range this week has been:    NZDUSD 0.6548 - 0.6711
Tuesday 16th February 2:00pm(NZT)
The New Zealand dollar has eased in recent trade against the USD after this morning’s miss in the latest headline NZ retail sales data. The NZD underperformed in late trade on Friday and failed to benefit from the U.S. data inspired lift in risk sentiment. Of immediate interest is tonight’s GDT dairy price auction where current pricing points to another decline (~10%) in milk powder prices. Risk flow and incoming U.S. data will continue to be an important driver again. We favour more lateral pricing with support at .6550 holding, a break of .6750 looks unlikely on the topside at present, although levels beyond .6680 may even prove a stretch prior our next report.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
NZD/USD 0.6650 0.6550 0.6680 0.6567 - 0.6737

Friday 12th February 2:00pm(NZT)
Trade in the New Zealand dollar against the USD whilst being messy has been contained this week. Risk aversion remains high at present due to the elevated concern over the state of the financial markets. Whilst this would normally place the NZD/USD under heavy pressure this has not been the case this week while the USD has been subjected to heavy selling. The yield appeal of the NZD has undoubtedly also helped, especially while the markets continue to pair expectations of U.S. rate hikes. Expect these issues to continue to set the tone of trade next week. Local data which includes retail sales and dairy price numbers will take a back seat to the USD liquidation theme. First resistance is seen around .6750 currently, and .6880-.6900 beyond.
The current interbank midrate is:    NZDUSD 0.6705

The interbank range this week has been:    NZDUSD 0.6567 - 0.6739
Tuesday 9th February 3:00pm(NZT)
The New Zealand dollar has relinquished much of last week’s gains seen against the USD in trade since late Friday. This has occurred on the back of the sharp spike in risk aversion as the markets grapple with elevated concerns over global and emerging market growth and the recent deterioration in credit markets. Sentiment from last week’s bullish NZ Q4 employment report and RBNZ Governor comments will take a back seat to such global forces this week, especially in light of the low impact data due for release. We now favour selling near last week’s highs, although expect decent demand near .6550 after last week’s local events.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
NZD/USD .6613 .6550 .6750 .6463 - .6745

Friday 5th February 2:00pm(NZT)
The New Zealand dollar has roared higher this week on the back of a combination of factors which have seen its post its largest gains against the USD since October. Factors at play have included a strong local Q4 employment report, comments from the RBNZ Governor which highlighted other factors in the RBNZ mindset other than the current weak headline inflationary environment, and lastly a very large move lower in the USD over the last 48 hours. Next week is a quiet one for local data; this will leave pricing in the NZD/USD to be dictated by offshore events which starts with the U.S. employment report tonight. The target for continued momentum higher is the .6880/.6900 zone.
The current interbank midrate is:    NZDUSD 0.6725

The interbank range this week has been:    NZDUSD 0.6450 - 0.6745
Tuesday 2nd February 2:00pm(NZT)
The New Zealand dollar is trading with a firm tone in present trade against the USD and sits near highs traded nearly two weeks prior. This comes on the back of continued soft U.S data flow overnight and reductions in USD long positioning after last week’s more cautionary U.S. FOMC statement. Tomorrow will be a key day for the NZD/USD with dairy pricing, employment data and a speech by the RBNZ Governor all due to arrive. The immediate challenge for the NZD/USD beyond .6560 lies around the .6600 level, whilst support is seen in the broad .6420/50 zone for now.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
NZD/USD 0.6535 0.6420 0.6600 0.6419 - 0.6558

Friday 29th January 1:30pm(NZT)
The New Zealand dollar sits towards the middle of its weekly range against the USD in trade presently. News flow was dominated by yesterday’s RBNZ meeting which saw the market increasing the likelihood of more rate cuts in 2016 after the RBNZ noted the likely delay in inflation reaching the central bank target. A partial recovery has been seen after the overnight U.S. data misses. But even despite yesterday’s more cautionary FOMC statement we continue to favour selling rallies in the .6530/60 region for continued tests of first minor support in the .6410/20 area. Employment reports from both NZ (Wednesday) and the U.S. (Friday) and the next GDT dairy price auction releases feature next week.
The current interbank midrate is:    NZDUSD 0.6477

The interbank range this week has been:    NZDUSD 0.6419 - 0.6550
Tuesday 26th January 4:00pm(NZT)
The New Zealand dollar has fallen in trade since our last report after peaking above .6550 last week as it rallied over 2c from its lows set earlier in the week. The declines last week were predicated on further losses in key commodities, a weak local inflation print, and ‘risk off’ selling. The week closed out with a sharp recovery in the oil price and global equities, and a correspondingly higher NZD/USD exchange rate. Trade this week will be dominated by the sentiment which emanates from Thursday’s RBNZ meeting where the market will be closely watching the statement for a shift in bias on the likelihood of further rate cuts. The likelihood of this bias moving towards one of further easing coupled with the  renewed commodity currency selling has us maintaining a ‘sell rallies’ mentality (above .6550).
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
NZD/USD 0.6429 0.6340 0.6600 0.6348 - 0.6558

Friday 22nd January 2:30pm(NZT)
The New Zealand dollar is trading near its highs for the week after a turbulent week’s trade that has seen pricing largely dictated by the gyrations of offshore equity and commodity markets. The declines built during the week and were not helped by a weak NZ Q4 inflation print. Losses were limited to the .6340/50 area, before improving risk and equity market sentiment helped push the NZD/USD back to highs around the .6560 level. Trade next week will be dominated by the RBNZ central bank meeting on Thursday and sentiment towards the commodity currencies. We would expect gains to be capped near .6600, first minor support is around .6410 and then more importantly this week’s .6340/50 lows.
The current interbank midrate is:    NZDUSD 0.6535

The interbank range this week has been:    NZDUSD 0.6348 - 0.6558
Tuesday 19th January 2:00pm(NZT)
The New Zealand dollar has lost further ground to the USD over the past week. The pair broke down below support just above 0.6500 on Thursday and that level now provides a tough topside barrier. Wider market risk aversion remains the main driver, although we have some domestic data releases in the coming days to draw attention. The Global Dairy Trade auction tonight and inflation data tomorrow could both easily influence the NZD, although it would be a brave forecaster to suggest we will see significant strength from either release. For the time being the risks remain skewed to the downside. As long as the market holds below 0.6500 resistance, a test toward the 2015 low at 0.6233 remains in focus.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
NZD/USD 0.6450 0.6230 0.6500 0.6382 - 0.6589

Friday 15th January 2:00pm(NZT)
The New Zealand dollar has continued to fall this week, building on last week’s declines on the back of the continued reduction seen in global risk appetite. This as the weight of highly volatile and uncertain international (and particularly Chinese) equity markets reduces the appeal of the ‘risk’ and commodity linked currencies. Gains mid week on the back of better than expected Chinese trade data were limited to .6590, ahead of the now key .6600 resistance level. The losses last night only marginally breached the November .6425/30 support level lows. We view this area ahead of .6400 as significant support, a break of which (we view as unlikely next week) could open .6300 and .6230. Next week’s local data flow includes the latest inflation print on Wednesday morning and the next release of the GDT dairy price series.
The current interbank midrate is:    NZDUSD 0.6490

The interbank range this week has been:    NZDUSD 0.6422 - 0.6677

Tuesday 12th January 2:00pm(NZT)
The New Zealand dollar has fallen heavily in the first week’s trade in 2016 and sits well down from highs set around .6880 after Christmas. The sharp declines observed have occurred on the back of the sharp deterioration seen in risk sentiment as concerns over the health of the Chinese economy resurfaced last week. Severe falls in Chinese equities were emulated around the globe during the week and contributed to a further decline in most commodity prices. With a quiet local data calendar offshore events are again set to dictate trade in the local currency this week. In this environment we see rallies capping ahead of prior support at .6600. The November lows around the .6425/30 level is the obvious downside target for this move initially.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
NZD/USD 0.6555 0.6420 0.6600 0.6510 - 0.6758

Tuesday 22nd December 2:00pm(NZT)
The New Zealand dollar has firmed in recent trade after the USD ended last week on a soft footing. The U.S. interest rate decision dominated the market interest last week, although failed to break the NZD out of its recent ranges. The local data schedule is quiet over the holiday break and will leave the NZD to trade mainly on the back of flow and commodity currency sentiment. Liquidity issues are typical during this period, although even with the thin markets we anticipate the NZD/USD to remain well within the .6600- .6900 range.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
NZD/USD .6783 .6600 .6850 .6687 - .6831

Friday 18th December 2:30pm(NZT)
The New Zealand dollar is trading with a soft tone in recent trade on the back of a poor night for commodity currencies in general and a USD which has been on the front foot post the FOMC meeting yesterday. Local data this week was largely uninspiring to traders as the focus remained on the U.S. interest rate decision. This saw the FOMC hike rates and deliver a path for next year which included the expectations of a further four rate hikes. We lack any bias for now, support lies just under .6600 still, whilst above resistance lies in the .6840/50 area and then more importantly at .6900.
The current interbank midrate is:    NZDUSD 0.6706

The interbank range this week has been:    NZDUSD 0.6687 - 0.6831
Tuesday 15th December 2:00pm(NZT)
The New Zealand dollar is trading on a firm footing currently (although off its overnight highs) after it overcame initial declines which started late on Friday. The declines came about on the back of the sentiment displayed towards the commodity currencies and the ‘risk-off’ selling seen after the falls in international equities. Focus for the NZD over the next 24 hrs will be on the latest GDT dairy auction tonight and NZ Q3 current account release tomorrow. The Q3 GDP release on Thursday whilst important will likely have taken a back seat to the sentiment post the earlier U.S. FOMC interest rate meeting.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
NZD/USD 0.6772 0.6600 0.6800 0.6596 - 0.6790

Friday 11th December 2:30pm(NZT)
The New Zealand dollar is finishing the week on a sound footing against its U.S. counterpart on the back of the strong gains seen yesterday after yesterday’s RBNZ meeting. Despite cutting rates by 25 bps to 2.5%, the interpretation of a strong indication given by the RBNZ that another cut to the cash rate was unlikely drove the gains. We continue to see the NZD/USD trading with support around the .6600 level; first resistance is seen ahead of .6800, and then .6900. Immediate events to watch include next week’s GDT dairy auction on Wednesday morning and U.S. FOMC meeting on Thursday morning.
The current interbank midrate is:    NZDUSD 0.6751

The interbank range this week has been:    NZDUSD 0.6596 - 0.6787
Tuesday 8th December 2:30pm(NZT)
The New Zealand dollar finished last week on a firm footing trading to highs near .6790 after the release of the U.S. non-farm employment data. Overweight U.S. positioning and weaker U.S. data helped drive the strong gains. This week has begun poorly for the NZD however. Losses have been driven by strong renewed weakness in commodity prices and commodity currencies. Oil prices have fallen to fresh lows below $US 38 per barrel (WTI) after OPEC’s decision on Friday not to cut current production levels.  Other focus for the NZD will be Thursday’s RBNZ interest rate decision; expectations have lifted in recent days of a cut to the current 2.75% cash rate.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
NZD/USD 0.6642 0.6600 0.6800 0.6592 - 0.6787

Friday 4th December 2:00pm(NZT)
The New Zealand dollar has had a strong week this week. Gains have accelerated after the sharp broad based USD sell-off which occurred on the trifecta of extended positioning, the weight of weaker U.S. data during the week, and an underwhelming ECB stimulatory package which sent the EUR soaring in trade overnight. Support should now be seen for the NZD ahead of .6600, whilst a clean break of .6700 opens .6740 and the .6790/.6810 zone. U.S. employment data tonight will now be the immediate test for the NZD ahead of the all important RBNZ cash rate decision next Thursday.
The current interbank midrate is:    NZDUSD 0.6685

The interbank range this week has been:    NZDUSD 0.6515 - 0.6706
Tuesday 1st December 4:00pm(NZT)
The New Zealand dollar sits near its recent upper bound .6610 in current trade after again finding support ahead of .6500 yesterday. A firmer AUD and some weaker second tier U.S. data overnight have helped the recovery. Outlook for the NZD in the near-term hinges on tonight’s GDT dairy auction result, although the more important longer term direction for this cross should come from U.S. events and the ECB monetary policy meeting later in the week. The ECB meeting has the potential to be risk-asset supportive (NZD+) should the markets embrace this theme on the event of a larger-than-expected easing.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
NZD/USD 0.6598 0.6500 0.6700 0.6503 - 0.6608

Friday 27th November 2:30pm(NZT)
It has been a relatively subdued weeks trading for the New Zealand dollar this week given the light local data calendar experienced. Support around the .6500 level held early in the week after the NZD fell away on the back of the AUD weakness, which was experienced after commodity prices undertook further declines. Sellers were again seen near the .6600 level challenge later in the week. Next week will see the NZD take its cue from offshore events (including the U.S. employment report on Friday) and the latest release of the GDT dairy price series on Wednesday morning.
The current interbank midrate is:    NZDUSD 0.6572

The interbank range this week has been:    NZDUSD 0.6496 - 0.6604
Tuesday 24th November 3:00pm(NZT)
The New Zealand dollar challenge of the .6600 area proved brief at the end of last week, as it has relinquished a large chunk of its gains falling to under .6500 overnight. Weakness in the AUD on the back of continued commodity price weakness and a generally firm USD have led to the slide. The NZD will take its cue from offshore this week starting with U.S. data tonight, we favour selling rallies should the NZD again challenge the .6600 level. Support should again be seen in the .6420/40 area.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
NZD/USD 0.6510 0.6420 0.6600 0.6433 - 0.6604

Thursday 19th November 1:00pm(NZT)
The New Zealand dollar has seen a continued decline against the USD this week weighed on by soft commodity prices. Although the decline in dairy prices at Tuesday night’s auction weren’t a surprise at all they do suggest dairy farmers will be doing it tough for some time yet. On the US side of the equation the patchy data we have seen this week has done little to dent expectations for a Fed interest rate hike in December and this is keeping the US dollar well supported across the board. I would expect to see continued, albeit gradual, USD appreciation heading into December's Fed meeting. September's cycle lows around 0.6235 are a viable target over the coming weeks. Minor support just below 0.6450 provides the only real downside barrier between current levels and those lows. On the topside there is likely to be strong selling interest should we see any period of strength toward resistance around 0.6590.
The current interbank midrate is:    NZDUSD 0.6470

The interbank range this week has been:    NZDUSD 0.6433 - 0.6578
Tuesday 17th November 3:00pm(NZT)
Better than expected NZ retail sales data released yesterday did little to dampen the weak sentiment seen towards the NZD. The weekend’s terror attacks dampened risk appetite, although the falls in the local currency have so far been limited to ~.6470. Tonight’s GDT dairy release will be the next critical mover of the currency, expectations are for another soft result presently. A much better than expected result may see the NZD challenge selling which is likely to reside in the .6570/90 region, especially if the USD is subjected to some profit taking over coming days. Selling rallies is still favoured overall for now.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
NZD/USD 0.6476 0.6450 0.6590 0.6471 - 06587

Friday 13th November 2:00pm(NZT)
The New Zealand dollar has had a reasonably quiet week this week after Friday’s strong U.S. labour report inspired sell-off. Support has been seen under 65c whilst the rallies have so far been capped around .6590. Next week should be busier with the release of NZ retail sales data on Monday and the latest GDT dairy auction on Wednesday morning. Global risk appetite and U.S. data flow will also be a key driver. We have a mild bias to selling rallies, initially near .6600, with more conviction around the .6650 level.
The current interbank midrate is:    NZDUSD 0.6547

The interbank range this week has been:    NZDUSD 0.6501 - 0.6625
Tuesday 10th November 1:30pm(NZT)
The New Zealand dollar has fallen sharply against its U.S. counterpart over the last week. It was a perfect storm for the NZD after a soft GDT dairy auction combined with a softer than expected NZ Q3 employment report on Wednesday. A very strong U.S. labour report on Friday which has most in the market anticipating a Fed lift-off in December rounded off the poor week for the NZD. With a quiet data week locally we will look to offshore developments in risk sentiment and U.S data to drive the kiwi. With little to change momentum for now we favour selling, firstly near .6570, then .6615/20.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
NZD/USD 0.6542 0.6495 0.6570 0.6501 - 0.6778

Friday 6th November 1:00pm(NZT)
The New Zealand dollar fell sharply against the USD this week after the latest GDT dairy auction decline (-7.4%) and employment data on Wednesday. This showed the unemployment rate rising further to 6.0% as the economy struggles to accommodate the rising employment demand as migration numbers bolster the requirement for new job creation. Gains were capped by .6800 at the start of the week, whilst the lows have been contained around the .6570 level so far. With the NZ data calendar lacking punch next week near term direction will be set by offshore developments, most notably tonight’s U.S. Non-farm payrolls report. Initial resistance lies around .6650 and then .6700, further downside appears likely.
The current interbank midrate is:    NZDUSD 0.6610

The interbank range this week has been:    NZDUSD 0.6574 - 0.6791
Tuesday 3rd November 5:30pm(NZT)
The New Zealand dollar has recovered well against the USD from its post RBNZ and FOMC inspired losses. A correction after the sharp USD rally and a strong recovery in the ANZ business confidence survey have helped the NZD pick up from its lows. Further gains are likely to be limited ahead of tonight’s GDT dairy auction and tomorrow’s NZ employment report. Friday’s U.S Nonfarm payrolls employment report will also be an important driver. The NZD has extended somewhat further than expected from its lows, although further gains above 68c would likely require significant surprises in the data flow, initial support should lie in the .6620/30 area.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
NZD/USD 0.6755 0.6620 0.6800 0.6635 - 0.6812

Friday 30th October 2:30pm(NZT)
The New Zealand dollar has eased marginally against the USD over the course of the week. Early week gains were capped by .6820 before the RBNZ and U.S. FOMC monetary policy meetings. The USD rallied across the board after the Fed delivered a more upbeat assessment of the U.S. economy and left a December rate hike open. The NZDUSD came under additional pressure after the RBNZ continued to indicate that the next move in rates would be down. Governor Wheel also expressed concern over the level of the exchange rate and noted that a sustained rise would likely necessitate the need for a lower interest rate path. We see rallies in the NZDUSD as likely being limited next week with selling in the .6735/50 region whilst this week’s lows near .6620/30 should invite some demand. Next week’s U.S. (Friday) and NZ employment reports and the latest GDT dairy auction on Wednesday will be important for fresh direction.
The current interbank midrate is:    NZDUSD 0.6725

The interbank range this week has been:    NZDUSD 0.6635 - 0.6863
Tuesday 27th October 4:00pm(NZT)
The New Zealand dollar seems content to consolidate its gains made against the USD in the first half of October, by ranging between 0.6700 and 0.6900. The surprise interest rate cut from the People’s Bank of China on Friday failed to provide any meaningful support for the NZD with the currency heading into the weekend around the 0.6740 level, after trading as high as 0.6866 earlier in the session. The Chinese cut has certainly increased concerns about global growth and with it the outlook for commodities. Attention now turns to the Thursday morning when we get the result of the Fed meeting followed a couple of hours later by the RBNZ rate statement. Expect plenty of volatility in the later part of this week that could easily threaten either the support and resistance levels of 0.6700 and 0.6900.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
NZD/USD 0.6775 0.6700 0.6900 0.6699 - 0.6863

Friday 23rd October 1:30pm(NZT)
The kiwi eased from highs near .6850 against the USD during the week after the latest downturn in the GDT dairy auction (-3.1%) and the mid-week fall in Chinese equities led to a “risk-off’ theme. Declines have been limited to .6700 so far and the kiwi currently sits mid-range after the dovish stance by the ECB overnight has raised the prospect of further global liquidity, in the process supporting yield carrying currencies like the NZD. Next week’s moves will be dominated by the relative interest rate stances of the U.S. Fed and RBNZ at their respective monetary policy meetings. The current upswing appears to have lost its momentum and the recent appreciation in the NZD and global factors/central bank talk may place additional pressure on the RBNZ to consider a rate cut.
The current interbank midrate is:    NZDUSD 0.6799

The interbank range this week has been:    NZDUSD 0.6699 - 0.6846
Tuesday 20th October 1:25pm(NZT)
The kiwi had another solid week last week on the back of Governor Wheeler’s comments over the likelihood of future rate cuts (less rather than more) and the markets reducing expectations of a Fed rate hike this year. Highs near 69c capped the week and we see demand near 67.5 c limiting dips for the time being this week. Tonight’s GDT dairy auction will be closely watched, current futures pricing implies a further small lift only in prices and as such is unlikely to bolster the kiwi significantly. With international data being light this week it would appear the kiwi is most likely to consolidate its gains in recent ranges.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
NZD/USD 0.6793 0.6750 0.6900 0.6619 - 0.6891

Friday 16th October 3:00pm(NZT)
The New Zealand dollar has continued to gain against the USD during the week trading to highs near 69c. This came after an initial fall to .6615 (from .6740) on the back of a weaker AUD and comments from the RBNZ’s Wheeler over the likelihood of another rate cut. The Kiwi continues to benefit like other G10 currencies from the pushing-out in expectations of the Fed’s first rate hike, although garnered additional support from Governor Wheeler’s comments over the need for spare RBNZ capacity to cut rates in the event of adverse global developments, thereby limiting the likelihood of further RBNZ cuts. Current momentum for the kiwi is up, with a break of resistance through 69c opening the .7000/20 zone.
The current interbank midrate is:    NZDUSD 0.6829

The interbank range this week has been:    NZDUSD 0.6619 - 0.6891
Tuesday 13th October 2:00pm(NZT)
The New Zealand dollar has continued to gain over the weekend trading up to .6740 highs on the backdraft of firming commodity prices, increased global risk appetite and a paring in the expectations of U.S. Fed rate hike initiation. The focus for the week will be the release of the NZ Q3 inflation data on Friday, where the market forecasts a 0.2% rise for the latest quarter, below the 0.3% RBNZ expectations. Given the rapidly improving outlook for dairy prices it would likely require a significantly weaker result to prompt the RBNZ to cut rates at their October 29 review. REINZ house price and sale data will also be released during the week, indications presently point to an active month for September ahead of the upcoming pending restrictions being implemented from October. We expect reasonable headwinds for further gains from here beyond .6770/80.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
NZD/USD 0.6712 0.6640 0.6780 0.6479 - 0.6739

Friday 9th October 3:00pm(NZT)
Like the Australian dollar the New Zealand dollar has had a positive week rallying ~2.5c to its highs against the USD from opening levels in part on the back of the strong Fonterra GDT dairy auction (GDT gains since mid-August are now over 50%). The NZD has also been a benefactor like its Aussie counterpart of the improving risk sentiment and perceived delays in U.S. Fed rate hikes, this has seen it trade to highs not seen since mid-August. Next week’s focus will turn to the release of the NZ Q3 CPI on Friday although expect international events and U.S. data (Retail sales/CPI) to dominate with initial resistance in the .6710/40 region likely to provide a barrier to further gains for now.
The current interbank midrate is:    NZDUSD 0.6672

The interbank range this week has been:    NZDUSD 0.6385 - 0.6694
Tuesday 6th October 2:00pm(NZT)
The New Zealand dollar has made some solid gains against the USD this past week. Although it took some time, Friday’s disappointing US employment report has started to weigh on the USD and this has helped the local currency break above 0.6450 resistance, with a high of 0.6529 trading last night. Positive expectations for another solid dairy auction result have also aided the NZD although today’s NZIER business survey, which saw the lowest reading since 2011, will have tempered enthusiasm a touch. The 0.6450 area should now provide some support and if the NZD can hold above that level a test toward 0.6600 may well unfold. Fonterra’s dairy auction is out tonight, after which attention will turn to US releases for the remainder of the week. The trade balance and the FOMC minutes will draw close attention and we also have a number of Fed officials set to speak.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
NZD/USD 0.6490 0.6450 0.6600 0.6290 - 0.6529

Friday 2nd October 2:00pm(NZT)
It has been a reasonably positive week for the New Zealand dollar, but one in which the price action has still been contained within the range of the past month. The NZD tested the top of that range with a move toward 0.6450 last night, but soft global stock markets eventually weighed on risk sentiment and capped the move. A range 0.6250 to 0.6450 has dominated trade since the end of August and barring a weak US employment result tonight, it may well dictate trade heading into next week. US non-farm payrolls data tonight is the markets main focus and it would probably take a reading of sub 175k to see the NZD break out on the topside. Any reading above 225k will likely pressure the local currency back down toward 0.6300 while cementing expectations of a December fed interest rate hike. Next week from NZ we have the NZIER’s quarterly survey of business opinion along with another dairy auction to digest. While from the US attention will turn to ISM non-manufacturing PMI along with the trade balance and the Fed meeting minutes.
The current interbank midrate is:    NZDUSD 0.6405

The interbank range this week has been:    NZDUSD 0.6290 - 0.6449
Tuesday 29th Sept 3:00pm(NZT)
The New Zealand dollar saw continued gains in the aftermath of Fonterra’s upgraded pay-out forecasts last Thursday. This helped propel the local currency to a high of just over 0.6400 late yesterday afternoon. However, the US dollar remains broadly supported by the ongoing expectation for an interest rate hike by the Fed over the coming months, and this eventually capped the NZD’s gains. The pair has drifted back toward 0.6300 over the past 24 hours. The failure to overcome resistance just above 0.6400 keeps the focus on the downside for now. There is little overall directional momentum however, and the pair may well continue to range between support just below 0.6250 and resistance just over 0.6400. Data from the US this week could easily provide a lead however with ISM manufacturing PMI and non-farm payroll change to key releases to watch. From NZ we just have building consents and business confidence numbers to digest over the coming days.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
NZD/USD 0.6302 0.6250 0.6410 0.6237 - 0.6402

Friday 25th September 2:00pm(NZT)
The New Zealand dollar saw relentless decline against the USD up until yesterday morning. The USD has been broad demand all week and the NZD briefly traded to fresh cycle lows at 0.6237, but Fonterra’s announcement yesterday that they were revising up pay-out forecasts, turned the pair around. With milk pay-outs now looking to come in higher than the RBNZ models had assumed, there is an element of doubt creeping in around the timing of the next potential interest rate cut. This has supported the NZD and helped it recover off the weeks lows. Look for a range of 0.6250 to 0.6450 heading into next week. Resistance around 0.6450 should provide a tough topside barrier, if indeed the pair gets up to test there. Next week from NZ we have building consents and business confidence data to digest. While from the US we have CB consumer confidence, Chicago PMI, personal spending and income, ISM manufacturing PMI and non-farm employment change- the primary focus.
The current interbank midrate is:    NZDUSD 0.6335

The interbank range this week has been:    NZDUSD 0.6237 - 0.6454
Tuesday 22nd Sept 2:30pm(NZT)
The past week has all been about the US Fed’s interest rate decision. The initial response to the no change announcement, and dovish accompanying statement, seemed to be the right one with the USD losing ground, but it was very short lived. In fact the USD saw pressure on two occasions in the hours that followed the Fed announcement and both times the selling could not be sustained. Over the past 24 hours the USD has actually appreciated to stronger levels than it was before the Fed’s decision. It’s extremely hard to explain or justify the move, but here we are. Sometimes you just have to accept the price action for what it is, and at the moment it’s telling us the market is happy to buy USD’s. This big question is how much further, if at all, will this move go. The NZD traded down to 0.6300 last night and the recent cycle lows around 0.6246 are not a mile away. I would be surprised to see it down there but the past week has all been about surprising price action. There is minor resistance on the topside around 0.6410 and while below that level it’s very hard to get excited about any potential NZD strength.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
NZD/USD 0.6325 0.6250 0.6410 0.6293 - 0.6454

Friday 18th September 2:50pm(NZT)
For much of this week the New Zealand dollar traded sideways against USD as it trod water ahead of this mornings Fed statement. We did see some gains on Tuesday after another solid dairy auction, but yesterday's weaker than forecast GDP data saw those unwound. The main event was always going to be the Fed and it didn’t disappoint. A ‘no change’ decision and a somewhat dovish sounding Janet Yellen initially sent the NZD soaring as the USD came under pressure across the board. The local currency traded to 0.6445 before a somewhat surprising pullback had the currency all the way back down to 0.6340. We always expected volatility around the Fed announcement and we certainly got it. I would expect the USD to broadly remain under pressure over the coming days and weeks. This should see the NZD recover back above 0.6400 and potentially on toward 0.6500. Resistance around 0.6500 should however provide a tough topside barrier. On the downside the currency should find good support on any dips toward 0.6300.
The current interbank midrate is:    NZDUSD 0.6355

The interbank range this week has been:    NZDUSD 0.6283 - 0.6445
Tuesday 15th Sept 1:30pm(NZT)
We have seen the New Zealand dollar recover ever so slowly off the low of 0.6258 that traded in the wake of the RBNZ’s monetary policy statement last Thursday. To be fair, most of the gains have come as a result of USD weakness on the back of disappointing consumer sentiment data and the unwinding of long (brought) USD positions ahead of this week's Fed meeting. We could easily see the USD depreciate a little more as we approach Thursday morning's release, but it’s hard to get too excited about the prospects for the NZD until the outcome of that meeting is known. By far and away the Fed meeting is the main event this week, but we do have a diary auction tonight and then NZ GDP data on Thursday to digest as well. From the US retail sales and inflation data will also draw attention over the coming days. The bigger surprise from the Fed will be if they do decide to hike interest rates. This will see the knee jerk reaction of NZD weakness, potentially down through recent cycle lows. There would likely be a lot of profit taking into this move however, as many long term players have purchased USD waiting for the eventual Fed hike.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
NZD/USD 0.6335 0.9200 0.6400 0.6258 - 0.6421

Friday 11th September 2:30pm(NZT)
It has been an interesting week of price action in the New Zealand dollar. The local currency put in very solid squeeze higher in the 48 hours prior to yesterday’s RBNZ monetary policy statement. It rallied from the lows of 0.6246 all the way to 0.6421 on the back of no fundamental economic data or releases. The move was then quickly reversed after Governor Wheeler delivered a 0.25% interest rate cut, along a much more ‘dovish’ statement than expected. In the immediate aftermath of the central bank’s MPS the NZD traded all the way back to 0.6256. While the Reserve Bank’s statement should keep the NZD broadly under pressure, we now shift our attention to next week’s Federal Reserve interest rate meeting. This has the potential to see some real volatility as the market is less than confident about which way the call will go. I suspect we could see the USD lose some ground over the coming days as we get close to the release on Thursday morning. As such the recent lows in the NZD around 0.6240/50 will probably provide solid support and a good buying opportunity over the near term.
The current interbank midrate is:    NZDUSD 0.6310

The interbank range this week has been:    NZDUSD 0.6246 - 0.6421
Tuesday 8st Sept 4:30pm(NZT)
The New Zealand dollar has lost further ground to the USD this past week with sharp losses coming in the wake of Friday’s US employment report. Although the headline gain in non-farm payrolls wasn’t as strong as many had expected, the overall tone of the report was positive. It certainly muddies the waters even further in regard to the Fed's interest rate meeting late next week. The immediate focus is now on the RBNZ’s monetary policy statement set for release on Thursday morning. This is keeping the NZD under pressure and last night the currency dipped below 0.6250 for a time. Initial topside resistance is now seen around 0.6320 and that should cap potential gains ahead of the RBNZ rate statement. The direction of the currency in the wake of that statement will largely depend on the degree to which the RBNZ lowers growth and inflation forecasts.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
NZD/USD 0.6262 0.6200 0.6400 0.6246 - 0.6415

Friday 4th September 1:00pm(NZT)
Soft NZ business confidence pressured the New Zealand dollar down toward the 0.6300 level early in the week, but there was little follow through selling. Another jump in dairy prices on Tuesday night then helped to support the NZD while mixed data from the US has failed to give the big dollar any real broad based support. Last night the NZD managed to outperform most other currencies with something of a squeeze seeing a test of the 0.6400 level. There is more solid resistance toward 0.6500, but for the local currency to make it that far we would need to see a soft US employment report tonight. That release will likely determine the near term direction for the pair as it may well hold the key to a potential US Fed interest rate hike in a couple of weeks’ time. Look for 0.6300 to 0.6500 to contain price action heading into next week when the main focus will be on the RBNZ’s monetary policy statement set for release on Thursday morning.
The current interbank midrate is:    NZDUSD 0.6390

The interbank range this week has been:    NZDUSD 0.6312 - 0.6506
Tuesday 1st Sept 4:30pm(NZT)
The New Zealand dollar has been under relentless pressure this past week. Significant losses have come in the past 24 hours after very weak NZ business confidence data. The US dollar has also been broadly supported by comments from Fed officials over the weekend that were viewed as somewhat ‘hawkish’. They certainly gave the impression the Fed are keen to stay the course so to speak and hike interest rates over the coming months. A low of 0.6321 traded last night and there are plenty of releases in the next 24 hours that could influence. Chinese manufacturing data this afternoon will draw attention as will tonight’s dairy auction. 0.6300 to 0.6500 looks like a reasonable range for the week, especially if dairy prices do strengthen again tonight as the futures market suggests.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
NZD/USD 0.6365 0.6300 0.6500 0.6321 - 0.6561

Friday 28th August 3:00pm(NZT)
In the wake of Monday night’s short lived market meltdown, the New Zealand dollar has been reasonably subdued. It has remained broadly under pressure against the USD. Concern about Chinese growth are certainly weighing on the local currency, but combined with this we have seen some solid data out of the US in recent days. As a result of these factors the NZD is now trading some two cents lower against the USD then where it started the week. There is plenty of potential for further volatility over the coming weeks, particularly with the outcome of the Fed's September interest rate meeting far from certain. The risks are skewed toward a ‘no change’ decision from the Fed and this will likely limit USD gains to a degree over the coming weeks. I suspect any potential dips toward, or under, 0.6400 will provide good value buying over the coming week.
The current interbank midrate is:    NZDUSD 0.6502

The interbank range this week has been:    NZDUSD 0.6280 - 0.6708
Tuesday 25th Aug 7:30pm(NZT)
The New Zealand dollar has lost ground to the USD this week, briefly breaking to fresh cycle lows last night. For a brief period of time, liquidity in the market completely dried up after panic set in when the US equity markets looked like they were going to collapse. It only took a few minutes for the market to regain composure, but it just shows how fragile the current situation is. For the time being the NZD will remain vulnerable to periods of risk aversion, but we could soon start to see the USD come under some pressure itself as expectations for a Fed tightening get pushed back, potentially into the first quarter of next year. Expect economic data to take a back seat to developments in the wider market over the coming days.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
NZD/USD 0.6492 0.6400 0.6600 0.6280 - 0.6708

Thursday 20th Aug 1:30pm (NZT)
The New Zealand dollar has made some gains against the USD this week and there may well be a bit more to come yet. Improving dairy prices have certainly helped the local currency, while the USD has been weighed on by softer than forecast inflation data and a real lack of decisiveness in the Fed minutes. The gains in the NZD have not been spectacular at all, with high last night of just 0.6623. There is a risk though that the very crowded trade of long (brought) USD and short (sold) NZD could be pared back somewhat in light of the diminished September Fed hike expectation. If we see a move up through 0.6650, the market could easily extend further toward 0.6740. For the time being, any dips toward 0.6500 should continue to find good support.
The current interbank midrate is:    NZDUSD 0.6608

The interbank range this week has been:    NZDUSD 0.6515 - 0.6641
Tuesday 18th Aug 1:30pm(NZT)
Despite all the volatility seen last week in the wake of the Chinese Yuan devaluation the NZD has ended up largely unchanged from this time last Tuesday. The currency did briefly trade to fresh cycle lows at 0.6477, but it quickly recovered back above the 0.6500 level. Since then we have seen the NZD chop around in a sideways range above 0.6500. Tonight's dairy auction will draw a lot of attention, although indications are we won’t see a big decline again this time. It seems that expectation has helped to support the New Zealand dollar to a degree in the past 12 hours. Some very mixed data from the US has also failed to support further US dollar buying at this stage, although there is plenty to digest over the coming days. Building permits, housing starts, inflation, the Fed minutes, the Philly Fed manufacturing index, existing home sales and manufacturing PMI are all set for release this week. Barring some big data surprises I would expect the NZD to continue to trade within the broad 0.6500 to 0.6700 band we have seen dominate for much of the past month.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
NZD/USD 0.6577 0.6500 0.6700 0.6477 - 0.6645

Friday 14th August 1:00pm(NZT)
It has been a volatile week for all currencies and the New Zealand dollar was no exception. That being said, the market has had little overall direction with the majority of price action contained with the same range that has dominated for the past month. We did see a brief flurry to fresh cycle lows below 0.6500 in the immediate aftermath of the surprise Chinese Yuan devaluation, but the NZD was quick to recover. In fact within the space of 12 hours the local currency was back up over 0.6600. It’s still too early to say what the long term consequences of the Chinese action will be, but at this stage it looks to be somewhat negative for the New Zealand dollar. There is however, good support for the currency on any dips to, or below 0.6500, at least for the time being.
The current interbank midrate is:    NZDUSD 0.6553

The interbank range this week has been:    NZDUSD 0.6477 - 0.6645
Tuesday 11th Aug 2:30pm(NZT)
The New Zealand dollar has managed to stage something of a recovery against the USD after testing support around 0.6500 on Thursday last week. The lack of follow through selling, especially in the wake of Fonterra’s downward revision to its forecasted pay-out, was a signal that enough negativity was already priced into the local currency. The US dollar then failed to gain any real support from Friday night non-farm payrolls data even though the result was close to expectation, and reasonably solid, at +215k. The NZD traded as high as 0.6635 in the hours after that release, but has since moderated a touch. Taking a look at the bigger picture, with support around 0.6500 looking pretty solid at this stage the local currency could try to extend gains toward 0.6700 over the coming week, especially if commodities continue the recovery we have seen over the past 24 hours. Ultimately though, any period of NZD strength will eventually run into good selling interest. I would expect the currency to struggle between 0.6700 and 0.6750.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
NZD/USD 0.6625 0.6500 0.6700 0.6494 - 0.6635

Friday 7th August 11:35am (NZT)
It has been a tough week for the NZ dollar having to battle weaker than expected employment numbers, a further slump in dairy prices and a material corporate sell flow. Having said that the support around the .6500 level has managed to curb the weakness and the wider recent trading band remains in place. This reiterates the notion that a further move lower from this pair will not be easily made, with so much negative news already built into market pricing. The US employment numbers later on today provide the near term driver for direction from current levels. Whilst it seems that the NZD is unlikely to see any steady increase in demand, the support at .6500 will take some beating in the short term. A materially larger than expected employment growth number from the US would be required to push through that level. It seems like that this pair will look to further consolidate the recent .6500 -.6700 trading range in the coming week.
The current interbank midrate is:    NZDUSD 0.6608

NZDUSD Week range this has been : 0.6494 - 0.6668
Tuesday 4th Aug 1:30pm(NZT)
It has been a choppy past week of trading in the New Zealand dollar, but broad overall pressure from the US dollar remains. The highs traded last Wednesday in the wake of Governor Wheeler's speech, but the local currency couldn’t kick on and with the market still happy to purchase USD’s on any periods of weakness, we saw relentless declines heading into Friday’s US data. When the US employment cost index printed at all-time lows, there was a sharp correction higher for the NZD, but again, US dollar weakness ran into buyers and the pair drifted lower again. Friday’s release of US employment data is shaping up to be a very interesting one. I can’t imagine the market will be so quick to buy US dollars again should non-farm payrolls also disappoint. Ahead of that release however, we have NZ data in the form of dairy prices and employment change to digest over the next 24 hours. There is minor support for the NZD around 0.6550, and then bigger support toward the cycle lows around 0.6500.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
NZD/USD 0.6570 0.6500 0.6700 0.6536 - 0.6739

Friday 31st July 2:00pm(NZT)
It has been a week of two halves for the New Zealand dollar. The local currency made gains against the USD early on and even broke above key downtrend resistance at 0.6650. This encouraged further buying with the NZD trading to a high of 0.6739 in the wake of Governor Wheeler’s speech on Wednesday morning. Since then however, US dollar strength has reasserted itself and relentlessly pushed the NZD back down. The currency traded all the way back to just shy of minor support around 0.6560 last night. The break above major downtrend resistance, at 0.6650 on Tuesday afternoon, is significant and it suggests that downside momentum is now waning. With last night’s attempt lower failing at minor support around 0.6560, there is potential for a recovery back up over 0.6700. Any break below 0.6560 would nullify that outlook and turn the picture decidedly negative again. US dollar strength in recent days has come even though the FOMC statement failed to give any clear indication a September interest rate hike is on the cards, and even though US GDP for the second quarter was a little softer than forecast. These factors would also suggest that further USD appreciation in the near term may be difficult to achieve, absent some positive data surprises.
The current interbank midrate is:    NZDUSD 0.6608

The interbank range this week has been:    NZDUSD 0.6558 - 0.6739
Tuesday 28th July 3:00pm(NZT)
The New Zealand dollar has managed to hold above minor support around 0.6560 over the past week, no doubt helped by the short (sold) market. We saw a significant short squeeze in the wake of last Thursday’s RBNZ rate statement, and again last night the squaring up of sold NZD positions helped to support the local currency during wider market ‘risk aversion’. The key level to watch is downtrend resistance which now comes in around 0.6650. Any break above there would encourage further buying and position squaring from longer term shorts (sold positions). While below that level however, the risks remain skewed to the downside. We have a couple of key release this week, both of which could significantly impact the market. RBNZ Governor Wheeler speaks tomorrow and he will be talking about the outlook for the economy, inflation and interest rates. Then early on Thursday morning we have the US FOMC rate statement. All in all there is plenty of potential for volatility over the coming days.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
NZD/USD 0.6628 0.6500 0.6650 0.6558 - 0.6693

Friday 24th July 1:30pm(NZT)
The New Zealand dollar has made gains against the USD this week even though the RBNZ cut interest rates by 0.25% yesterday. In a classic display of why market positioning can be so important, the NZD squeezed higher in the immediate aftermath of the central bank announcement. With record short (sold) positions in the NZD, and a 0.25% cut fully factored into the market, there was really only buying interest in the wake of the announcement as short positions looked to square up and book profits. The short squeeze continued on into the London session with the pair trading right up to key downtrend resistance now seen around 0.6690. The move ran out of steam at that level however, and when US jobless claims printed at a 40 year low, the USD made a strong comeback. This pushed the NZD all the way back to just above 0.6600 where it currently trades. Longer term the risks are still to the downside for the NZD with further cuts from the RBNZ and interest rate hikes from the Fed likely over the coming months. But the NZD is certainly not the one way bet it was only a month or so ago and price action this week proves just that. Next week from NZ we only have building consents and business confidence set for release. While from the US we get durable goods orders, CB consumer confidence, the FOMC rate statement, GDP, the employment cost index and Chicago PMI.
The current interbank midrate is:    NZDUSD 0.6605

The interbank range this week has been:    NZDUSD 0.6502 - 0.6693
Tuesday 21th July 5:00pm(NZT)
The New Zealand dollar traded to fresh cycle lows late last week just above the 0.6500 level. The currency started the week not far off the level in quiet trade, but comments from PM John Key yesterday afternoon did case a sharp move toward 0.6600. The immediate focus is on the RBNZ rate statement set for release on Thursday morning. A 0.25% interest rate cut is fully priced into the market at this stage and with the central bank expected to signal further easing’s to come, the NZD will find plenty of willing sellers into any further strength. Key downtrend resistance now comes in around 0.6720 and it would take a move above that level to warn a broader correction higher is unfolding. Until then, the downside remains the more vulnerable. Largely second tier data from the US this week shouldn’t have a major impact with the broader trend toward a stronger USD well intact at this stage.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
NZD/USD 0.6591 0.6500 0.6720 0.6502 - 0.6739

Friday 17th July 1:30pm(NZT)
The New Zealand dollar has had no friends this week. Collapsing dairy prices and weaker than forecast inflation have done the damage, but added to this is the wider market's appetite to buy USD’s. Fresh cycle lows traded late yesterday just above 0.6500 and so far the market has failed to recover much from that level. We have the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) interest rate meeting next week and with another cut universally expected the NZD should remain heavy heading into that announcement. The United States on the other hand is slowly moving toward increasing interest rates and this was confirmed by Fed Chair Yellen this week. As a result any periods of broad USD weakness eventually finds buyers as this looks set to continue over the coming months. The next level of support for the NZD comes in around 0.6400 and this marks a realistic downside target for the coming week. On the topside, major downtrend resistance now comes in around 0.6770, although that seems a long way away at this stage.
The current interbank midrate is:    NZDUSD 0.6525

The interbank range this week has been:    NZDUSD 0.6502 - 0.6770
Tuesday 14th July 4:00pm(NZT)
The New Zealand dollar squeezed higher early last week as ‘risk off’ sentiment swept the market in the wake of ongoing Greek concerns and Chinese stock market volatility. With both those situations having been contained for the time being we are seeing a return of risk appetite. That is proving positive for the USD, as potential barriers to a Fed interest rate hike have now been removed, and negative for the NZD. Locally we have two key releases to digest this week with dairy prices and inflation both set to hit the wires. A soft inflation figure will give the green light for NZD sellers to test the cycle lows at 0.6621, while a stronger than expected result could see the NZD squeeze further up toward key trend resistance around 0.6800. From the US this week we get producer prices, inflation and consumer sentiment, along with Fed Chair Yellen’s semi-annual testimony before the senate banking committee.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
NZD/USD 0.6690 0.6600 0.6800 0.6621 - 0.6770

Friday 10th July 3:30pm(NZT)
The New Zealand dollar was under pressure in the early stages of this week on the back of Greek uncertainty. That caused the NZD to trade to a fresh 5 year low against the USD, but the downside didn’t continue. What transpired was something of a “short squeeze” driven by the record level of sold positions in the local currency. On Wednesday evening, as the Australian dollar was getting sold heavily, the NZD saw waves of buying as these short (sold) positions rushed in to square up. It was a powerful performance from the NZD in light of the global situation and a classic example of market positioning overriding all else. The big question is just how much further will the currency squeeze? Already this morning we have seen a move as high as 0.6770, and a test of downtrend resistance, now around 0.6850 looks likely. I can only imagine there are significant stop loss orders just above that level and these will attract the market. A break above 0.6850 will see minor resistance around 0.6930 targeted initially. Fed Chair Yellen is set to speak tonight and then next week to draw focus we have data on US retail sales, producer prices, inflation and consumer sentiment. While from NZ we also have inflation data along with another dairy action to digest.
The current interbank midrate is:    NZDUSD 0.6760

The interbank range this week has been:    NZDUSD 0.6621 - 0.6770
Tuesday 7th July 2:30pm(NZT)
The New Zealand dollar has remained under pressure this past week weighed on by declining dairy prices, declining business confidence and wider market risk aversion. In early trade yesterday the local currency fell to a five year low against the USD at 0.6649 and we’re currently trading only around 20 points above there. US data has been mixed recently and the market has reduced the chance of a September interest rate hike to around 30%, but the USD remains well supported thanks in part to safe haven flows on the back of Greek uncertainty. The risks for the pair remain to the downside, and key trend resistance now comes in around 0.6860. It will take a move above that level to suggest the current down leg, that started at the end of April around 0.7750, has finally run its course. Still to come this week from the US we have the trade balance, the FOMC minutes, weekly unemployment claims and a speech from Fed Chair Yellen to digest.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
NZD/USD 0.6676 0.6600 0.6860 0.6649 - 0.6849

Thursday 2nd July 2:30pm(NZT)
The New Zealand dollar has found no love this week as the longer term downtrend against the USD continues unabated. Supportive economic data from the US has contrasted with disappointing releases from NZ as both business confidence and dairy prices take another leg lower. The local currency is currently sitting near fresh cycle lows at 0.6712 and the target is a test of 0.6600 over the coming weeks. There are extremely high levels of short (sold) positions in the NZD at the moment, and this does warn of potential for a sharp corrective bounce at some stage, but in the absence of a trigger for such a move the immediate risks remain to the downside. Long term trend resistance now comes in around 0.6950 and while below that level the downtrend remains intact. Tonight’s US employment data will be key to near term direction. The market is expecting another solid gain in employment of 231k. An outcome of that, or higher, should continue to support the USD.
The current interbank midrate is:    NZDUSD 0.6710

The interbank range this week has been:    NZDUSD 0.6707 - 0.6924
Tuesday 30th June 2:00pm(NZT)
The New Zealand dollar traded to a fresh cycle low against the USD at the start of this week, weighed on by risk aversion in the wider market. The Greek situation prompted a wave of ‘risk off’ selling early on Monday morning and this saw the NZD trade down below 0.6900. The local currency was already trading heavily heading into the weekend thanks to Friday’s dramatic fall in the Chinese stock market. With both situations far from contained, we can expect further volatility over the coming week. Major trend resistance is now seen around 0.6980, and while below that level the longer term risks remain to the downside. From NZ this week we still have a dairy auction to digest, while from the US we have manufacturing PMI and non-farm payrolls data to draw focus.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
NZD/USD 0.6811 0.6780 0.6980 0.6789 - 0.6924

Friday 26th June 2:00pm(NZT)
The New Zealand dollar continued to lose ground to the USD in the first half of this week, trading to a fresh cycle low of 0.6817. We saw a corrective bounce from that level which managed to get back up over 0.6900, but comments from the RBNZ this morning put the pair back under pressure. The RBNZ said nothing new, just that the NZD persists at an unjustifiable level, but it was enough to encourage some selling in an otherwise quiet market. NZ trade balance data followed quickly on the heels of the RBNZ comments and it was better than expected. This saw the currency quickly recover. With the broader trend firmly to the downside selling into any periods of strength is recommended for those looking to purchase USD’s. Next week from NZ we get building consents and business confidence data along with another dairy auction from Fonterra. While from the US to draw focus we have CB consumer confidence, ISM manufacturing PMI and non-farm payrolls data.
The current interbank midrate is:    NZDUSD 0.6890

The interbank range this week has been:    NZDUSD 0.6817 - 0.6939
Tuesday 23th June 2:30pm(NZT)
The New Zealand dollar has remained under pressure in the wake of last week’s disappointing GDP data. A broadly stronger USD has also played a part, helped by positive signals from the housing and employment markets, although softer than forecast US inflation has limited USD gains somewhat. The trend for the pair is firmly to the downside and any potential periods of strength in the NZD will run into strong resistance around 0.7030. Selling ahead of that level is recommended for those looking to buy US dollars. From New Zealand this week we only have the trade balance on Friday to draw focus. While from the US we get durable goods orders, manufacturing PMI, GDP, personal spending and consumer sentiment data.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
NZD/USD 0.6865 0.6800 0.7030 0.6862 - 0.7010

Thursday 17th June 2:00pm(NZT)
The New Zealand dollar has continued to make fresh lows against the USD this week. We have seen some decent volatility in the past 8 hours after broad US dollar weakness in the wake of the Fed rate statement caused a sharp spike up over 0.7000. The move was short lived however, thanks to NZ GDP data which came in surprisingly soft. The +0.2% result caught the market off guard and as such pushed the NZD back down toward 0.6900. For the time being the risks are all still skewed to the downside and further losses are likely. The initial target is a test of minor support around 0.6800, but further out a move toward 0.6600 may well develop over the coming months. Next week from NZ we have consumer sentiment, credit card spending and trade balance data. While from the US we have inflation data and the Philly Fed manufacturing index set for release tonight. These will be followed next week by existing home sales, durable goods orders and GDP.
The current interbank midrate is:    NZDUSD 0.6895

The interbank range this week has been:    NZDUSD 0.6882 - 0.7062
Tuesday 16th June 2:30pm(NZT)
The New Zealand dollar has remained on the back foot since last week's RBNZ interest rate cut. Fresh cycle lows at 0.6944 traded heading into the weekend and the pair may well have ended lower still had it not been for the US dollars inability to make gains on the back of better than forecast data on Friday night. The lack of USD buying may be an indication the market is overly long USD’s (bought USD positions) and these positions could see a clean out at some stage. That would allow the NZD to recover some ground, but solid resistance around 0.7080 will prove tough to overcome. Tonight we have another Fonterra dairy auction to digest then on Thursday we get NZ Q1 GDP data. From the States this week the FOMC statement on Thursday morning will draw the most attention although we also get building permits, inflation and the Philly Fed manufacturing index over coming days.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
NZD/USD 0.7004 0.6900 0.7080 0.6944 - 0.7232

Friday 12th June 2:00pm(NZT)
The New Zealand dollar spent much of the week gradually recovering against the USD, trading up over 0.7200 early yesterday morning. That all changed in the wake of yesterday’s Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) interest rate cut. In one of the more brutal moves seen in quite some time, the NZD fell close to 2 cents against the USD in only a few seconds. The central bank hadn’t telegraphed this move anywhere near as much as they normally would, and as such just over half the market was caught by surprise. It may well be the case that the RBNZ wanted to surprise the market and therefore get a bigger reaction in the NZD, the level of which they continue to view as ‘unjustified and unsustainable’. Either way the bank will be happy to see the currency testing levels under 0.7000 to the USD for the first time since 2010. The medium and long term risks are all skewed to the downside. If we do get a corrective bounce in the near term, it will no doubt run into plenty of willing sellers toward 0.7080. That level provides the initial resistance area and it’s one I suspect will cap any potential near term strength. Over the next 3 - 6 months a move toward 0.6600 seems likely, assuming the US economic recovery stays on track.
The current interbank midrate is:    NZDUSD 0.7018

The interbank range this week has been:    NZDUSD 0.6978 - 0.7232
Tuesday 9th June 2:00pm(NZT)
We have seen some interesting price action in this pairing over the past few days. Friday night’s strong US employment data caused a sharp appreciation in the USD and this drive the NZD down to a fresh cycle low of 0.7026. But last night the USD gave back all its gains and the pair is now trading close to where it was before the US employment data. There was no fundamental news to drive the reversal and it might say as much about market positioning as anything else. Attention now turns to Thursday mornings Reserve Bank of New Zealand interest rate announcement and monetary policy statement. I would expect to see some volatile price action around the release as the market is evenly split between those expecting a 0.25% cut and those expecting no change. Even if the central bank keeps interest rates unchanged, they may well signal rate cuts are likely going forward, and the initial knee jerk reaction toward a higher NZD may well provide a good selling opportunity. Later in the week from the US we get retail sales, producer prices and consumer sentiment data.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
NZD/USD 0.7120 0.7000 0.7200 0.7026 - 0.7198

Friday 5th June 1:00pm(NZT)
It has been a volatile week for the US dollar with action in the wider market spilling over into many currency pairs. This saw the USD under pressure in the early stages of the week and during that volatility the NZD traded up to 0.7198. Since then however, the USD has been regaining its lost ground and the pair looks like another test below 0.7100 could be on the cards. The New Zealand dollar’s outlook wasn’t helped by another decline in dairy prices at Fonterra’s latest auction and this has meant there are plenty of willing sellers into any periods of strength. The immediate focus is on tonight's key US employment data and that release could well set the tone for next week. The market is expecting a gain in non-farm payrolls of 225k. Attention will then quickly turn to next Thursday’s RBNZ interest rate meeting and monetary policy statement. With opinion divided on the potential for an interest rate cut, we should see some volatility in the wake of the announcement. If the RBNZ hold off cutting the cash rate, as we expect, the New Zealand dollar will likely gain ground on most crosses. Also next week from the US we have retail sales, producer prices, and consumer sentiment data to digest.
The current interbank midrate is:    NZDUSD 0.7120

The interbank range this week has been:    NZDUSD 0.7076 - 0.7198
Tuesday 2nd June 2:30pm(NZT)
The New Zealand dollar traded to fresh cycle lows against the US dollar last week. Broad based USD gains drove a good part of the move as recent data from the US has only increased the chances of a September interest rate hike from the Fed. But New Zealand dollar weakness also played a part as the local currency suffered in the wake of Fonterra’s announcement and a decline in business confidence. The market is firmly entrenched in a down trend, the latest leg of which started from 0.7750 at end of April. At this point there is little to suggest a change in trend is near. The near term target is a test of 0.7000 which we could well see this week if US data continues to print on the strong side. We have the key releases of ISM non-manufacturing PMI and non-farm payrolls to digest over the coming days. From NZ the economic calendar is a little light with only another dairy Auction from Fonterra to draw focus.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
NZD/USD 0.7107 0.7000 0.7200 0.7076 - 0.7323

Friday 29th May 2:00pm(NZT)
The US dollar has reigned supreme this week, buoyed by improvements in economic data and the prospect of a Fed interest rate hike as early as September. Although the New Zealand dollar saw a period of strength yesterday after the release of Fonetrra’s pay-out forecasts, this had more to do with market positioning than economic fundamentals. Overnight the seller's returned and pushed the NZD down to fresh cycle lows at 0.7130. For the time being the risks are all skewed to the downside and a move toward 0.7000 may well unfold over the coming weeks. There is a lot to digest from the US next week with PMI data from the manufacturing and nonmanufacturing sectors, along with the non-farm payrolls report. In NZ the calendar is looking pretty light with only the overseas trade index and another Fonterra dairy auction of any note.
The current interbank midrate is:    NZDUSD 0.7150

The interbank range this week has been:    NZDUSD 0.7130 - 0.7396
Tuesday 26th May 2:00pm(NZT)
The New Zealand dollar was under pressure from the USD for much of last week. Key support just under 0.7300 contained the downside on numerous occasions however and this provided the NZD the chance to stage something of a recovery. The NZD managed a rally to a high of 0.7394 on Friday evening before US inflation data and comments from Fed Chair Yellen, once again saw the USD dominate. The local currency quickly fell back to 0.7300 and the last couple of days has seen quiet trading around that level. Once again however, support just below 0.7300 has contained the downside and this does keep alive the chance of a renewed bounce. The deciding factor will likely come from the release of US data tonight. Durable goods orders and CB consumer confidence are set to hit the wires and if they disappoint, the New Zealand dollar may well test back toward 0.7400. Later in the week from NZ we have building consents and business confidence numbers to digest.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
NZD/USD 0.7305 0.7280 0.7420 0.7282 - 0.7443

Friday 22nd May 2:00pm(NZT)
The New Zealand dollar has been under pressure from the USD for much of this week. We did see one notable period of NZD strength in the wake of stronger than expected inflation expectations data, but this was short lived. The USD has been in demand across the board this week, even though data from the US has generally disappointed. Over the past couple of days the NZD has unsuccessfully tested levels below 0.7300 on a number of occasions. Each time a quick bounce toward 0.7330 ensued. This suggests the pair may be trying to build a base for a test higher. I would not be surprised to see a recovery back toward 0.7420 develop. 0.7280 and 0.7420 provide the initial support and resistance levels and at this stage the risks are skewed toward a move to the top of that range. Tonight from the US we have inflation data and a speech from Fed Chair Yellen to digest. Next week to draw focus we have durable goods orders, CB consumer confidence and GDP data. From NZ next week we have the trade balance, building consents and business confidence data to draw focus.
The current interbank midrate is:    NZDUSD 0.7345

The interbank range this week has been:    NZDUSD 0.7282 - 0.7503
Tuesday 19th May 1:00pm(NZT)
The New Zealand dollar managed something of a recovery against the USD in the latter stages of last week helped by disappointing US economic data. The pair traded up to 0.7559 before running out of steam. In the early stages of this week we have seen the local currency back under pressure thanks largely to the government's announcement around taxing property speculators. Any measures implemented to help cool the Auckland property market only serve to increase the chances of an eventual rate cut from the Reserve Bank. This afternoon we have the release of inflation expectations data and the central bank will be concerned if we see a further significant fall. If we do see further weakness in inflation expectations the NZD may well target support down around 0.7300. From the US this week we have building permits, the FOMC meeting minutes, the Philly Fed manufacturing index, and inflation data to digest.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
NZD/USD 0.7373 0.7300 0.7500 0.7328 - 0.7559

Friday 15th May 1:30pm(NZT)
The New Zealand dollar had a tough start to the week with negative sentiment compounded by increasing expectations for a near term interest rate cut from the RBNZ. These helped to drive the currency to its 0.7328 low. The pair managed to turn around midweek however in the wake of the RBNZ’s financial stability report. We then saw a poor US retails sales result contrast with a very strong NZ retails sales outcome. This helped boost the pair back up to just above where it began the week. Expect a range of 0.7400 to 0.7600 over the coming days. Broad based US dollar strength won’t be seen until there is a pick-up in US data and the market becomes more confident of a bounce back in growth from the poor first quarter. The New Zealand dollar is still suffering from negative sentiment, but the market may have got a little carried away earlier this week. Although the RBNZ maintain a slight easing bias, near term interest rate cuts from the central bank seem unlikely at this stage and the NZD could see some further gains as the market discounts this over the coming weeks.
The current interbank midrate is:    NZDUSD 0.7460

The interbank range this week has been:    NZDUSD 0.7328 - 0.7559
Tuesday 12th May 1:00pm(NZT)
The New Zealand dollar has seen relentless pressure over the past week, driven lower by increasing expectation of a rate cut from the RBNZ. ANZ economists released a report in early trade yesterday that suggested a 0.25% interest rate cut in June and July was likely. This only added to the downside pressure on the currency and fell further overnight. Tomorrow we have the RBNZ financial stability report to digest which could make for interesting reading. If the central bank is going to cut interest rate they will surely want to implement further macro prudential tools to try and counter any positive impact on the housing market. Thursday’s NZ retail sales will also draw focus with the market expecting a gain on the quarter of 1.6%. From the US this week we also get the latest reading on retail sales along with producer prices and University of Michigan consumer sentiment. At this point 0.7200 is looking like a potential target for the pair over the coming days. Any periods of strength will run into resistance at 0.7420 and then again at 0.7500.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
NZD/USD 0.7340 0.7200 0.7420 0.7337 - 0.7575

Friday 8th May 1:30pm(NZT)
The key driver of the New Zealand dollar this week was the release of employment data on Wednesday. The market was disappointed with unemployment at 5.8% and low wage growth and the NZD paid the price. Mixed data out of the USD has also impacted, but as we head into tonight’s key non-farm payrolls report the USD is strengthening somewhat on the back of expectations for a solid number. Minor support between 0.7400 and 0.7425 has contained the downside so far, but it looks like it will come under increasing pressure. A strong US employment result will likely see that support zone give way and a move down toward 0.7300 develop. Next week from NZ we have the RBNZ financial stability report, a speech from Governor Wheeler, the Business NZ manufacturing index and retails sales data. While from the US we get data on retail sales, producer prices, industrial production and consumer sentiment to digest.
The current interbank midrate is:    NZDUSD 0.7440

The interbank range this week has been:    NZDUSD 0.7426 - 0.7627
Tuesday 5th May 2:00pm(NZT)
RBNZ cash rate review. The US dollar has also seen renewed buying interest despite Friday night’s softer than forecast ISM manufacturing data. The combination of these factors drove this pairing to a low just over 0.7500 heading into the weekend. A tight range has developed since then as the market takes a breather thanks to holidays in both Europe and Japan at the start of this week. At this stage the risks are skewed to further downside, although it will largely depend on the outcome of US data this week in the form of trade balance, ISM non-manufacturing PMI, and the all-important non-farm payrolls report. If as the Fed believe, the economy will recover from the first quarter's growth ‘hiccup’ then the broad trend towards a strong USD will reassert itself. The market will want to start to see hard data to support this case before further gains are made. Locally, we have another dairy auction to digest tonight along with employment data set for release tomorrow.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
NZD/USD 0.7538 0.7500 0.7700 0.7509 - 0.7742

Friday 1st May 2:45pm(NZT)
 
US dollar weakness was the theme for the first half of the week as disappointing US data continued to reinforce the poor first quarters economic performance. This broad USD weakness helped to drive the NZD up to 0.7742 in the hours just ahead of the Fed and RBNZ statements on Thursday morning. However, in the wake of those statements we have seen a sharp pull back with the NZD now trading back down around 0.7600. The Fed statement triggered the move after they seemed largely unconcerned about the soft economic growth in the first quarter, but the real downside came on the back of the RBNZ statement which confirmed they now have a slight easing bias. This really pressured the NZD, which lost a lot of ground across the board. The immediate risks are skewed to further NZD downside and we could easily see a test toward 0.7500. But with US data unlikely to show any dramatic improvement in the very near term, and a number of key US releases out over the coming week, I’m not expecting the pair to look below 0.7500 at this stage.
The current interbank midrate is:    NZDUSD 0.7585

The interbank range this week has been:    NZDUSD 0.7545 - 0.7742
Tuesday 28th Apr 3:30pm(NZT)
The New Zealand dollar lost substantial ground to the USD last week in the wake of comments from RBNZ deputy Governor McDermott. The pair traded down to a low of 0.7544 on Friday, before staging something of a recovery. That recovery was boosted by further soft US data in the form of core durable goods orders on Friday evening. We have both the Fed and RBNZ rate meetings to digest this week and both central banks are expected to soften their stance a touch. The RBNZ are still very much neutral, but the risks have recently shifted slightly in favor of the next move being an interest rate cut, not a hike. The Fed on the other hand have signalled interest rate hikes are coming, but recent weak data may see them signal they will hold off until later in the year. As a result of these expectations both currencies could see periods of pressure and we can expect increased volatility on Thursday morning with the announcements only three hours apart. With the New Zealand dollar having recently broken above minor resistance around 0.7620 there is potential for a move up toward 0.7700. I suspect pair will struggle to sustain gains over that level a head of the central bank announcements on Thursday morning.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
NZD/USD 0.7625 0.7500 0.7700 0.7544 - 0.7736

Friday 24th Apr 2:00pm(NZT)
The US dollar has been under some pressure recently with disappointing data and a growing expectation the Fed will hold off hiking interest rates until later in the year. These factors helped the New Zealand dollar test levels over 0.7700 on a number of occasions the past week, but each time the local currency failed to sustain the gains. Softer than expected NZ inflation data weighed on the NZD and then a speech by the RBNZ deputy governor ramped up the downside pressure. Not only did he say the bank was not considering any interest rate increases, but he spent a fair amount of time talking about the potential for a rate cut. This completely undermined support for the NZD that had been trading at relatively elevated levels on many crosses. Against the USD this has seen the currency fall as low as 0.7544. Although we have seen a small bounce in the past 12 hours, I suspect minor resistance around 0.7620 will cap the topside for now. We have key US data tonight in the form of durable goods orders, and next week will be a big one with rate meetings from both the RBNZ and US Fed to digest.
The current interbank midrate is:    NZDUSD 0.7570

The interbank range this week has been:    NZDUSD 0.7544 - 0.7741
Tuesday 21st Apr 3:30pm(NZT)
The New Zealand dollar made good gains against the USD last week driven by broad weakness in the U.S. dollar. The currency rallied up through resistance around 0.7700 heading into US data on Friday night, but when both inflation and consumer sentiment came in a touch stronger than forecast, the pair quickly fell back. The local currency did get a little boost at the start of this week from news of further easing’s from the Peoples Bank of China (PBOC), but again, gains over 0.7700 could not be sustained. New Zealand inflation data released yesterday had little market impact and attention now turns to a raft of U.S. releases set for later in the week. Existing home sales, unemployment claims, manufacturing PMI, new homes sales and durable goods orders are all set to hit the wires and these will likely determine the near term direction for the pair. There is support toward 0.7600 and this may well be tested in the coming days. If that level contains the weakness the pair could look to have another attempt at the topside and test levels above 0.7700 again.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
NZD/USD 0.7645 0.7500 0.7700 0.7439 - 0.7741

Friday 17th Apr 1:00pm(NZT)
Disappointing Chinese trade data pressured the New Zealand dollar early in the week and saw the low of 0.7422 trade. Since then however the local currency has made consistent gains on the back of U.S. dollar weakness. The market has been happy to buy US dollars on any periods of weakness for months now, but this week we have seen something of a change in sentiment. Continued soft economic data from the States has raised real doubts in the minds of many forecasters as to just how quickly the U.S. economy will bounce back from the horrible first quarter. This has undermined that broad support for USD’s and as such the NZD has traded up to resistance around 0.7700 in the past 12 hours. There is some solid resistance around 0.7700 but the market looks like it will give it a real test. A break above that level will then target 0.7850. Tonight we have U.S. inflation and consumer sentiment data set for release. The outcome of these may well determine if 0.7700 resistance caps the pair or not. Next week from NZ we have inflation data to draw focus along with visitor arrivals and credit card spending figures. While from the U.S. we get existing home sales, manufacturing PMI and durable goods orders.
The current interbank midrate is:     NZDUSD 0.7655

The interbank range this week has been:     NZDUSD 0.7422 - 0.7697
Tuesday 14th Apr 2:30pm(NZT)
The New Zealand dollar spent much of the past week ranging between 0.7500 and 0.7600 to the U.S dollar. The currency finally saw some real direction yesterday in the wake of shocking Chinese trade data. Sharp falls in both imports and exports spooked the market and saw commodity currencies in general come under pressure. This NZD fell down through 0.7500 and traded as low as 0.7422 before the immediate pressure eased. Whether or not we see further downside price action below support around 0.7400 will largely depend on the outcome of U.S. retail sales data tonight and then Fonterra’s dairy auction tomorrow night. Toward the end of the week U.S. inflation and consumer sentiment data will also draw attention.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
NZD/USD 0.7462 0.7400 0.7600 0.7422 - 0.7605

Friday 10th Apr 1:45pm(NZT)
The US dollar came under pressure at the end of last week after the release of much softer than forecast employment data. This caused the New Zealand dollar to leap up to 0.7630, and since then the pair has largely consolidated these gains ranging between that level and 0.7500 on the downside. As long as the market can continue to hold above 0.7500 the risks remain skewed to further investigations higher. Next week from the US we have retail sales, producer prices, building permits, inflation and consumer sentiment data to digest. While from NZ we have business confidence, another Fonterra dairy auction and the Business NZ manufacturing index.
The current interbank midrate is:    NZDUSD 0.7590

The interbank range this week has been:    NZDUSD 0.7487 - 0.7630
Thursday 2nd Apr 2:30pm(NZT)
The New Zealand dollar has seen pressure all week from a resurgent USD. Somewhat strangely however, the week’s low traded in the hours before the release of last night dairy auction. Another big decline in dairy prices failed to have any lasting impact on the NZD which is currently trading at a similar level to where it was this time yesterday. Data from the United States so far this week hasn’t, at least in my mind, added anything positive to the economic outlook, but the market seems happy to continue to buy US dollars on the back of the broader trend towards appreciation. The big focus, and risk, is tomorrow night’s non-farm payrolls release. Other indicators are suggesting we could see a softer result than the current +250k expected. Even if the headline number does achieve that figure, if wage growth data remains weak, the USD may fail to gain much support. On the basis of that my risk / reward scenario is skewed toward USD weakness in the wake of the data.
The current interbank midrate is:    NZDUSD 0.7435

The interbank range this week has been:    NZDUSD 0.7392 - 0.7664
Tuesday 31st Mar 2:30pm(NZT)
Despite some mixed data from the US over the past week, along with downgraded expectations for first quarter growth, the USD has quietly gone about regaining a considerable amount of ground it lost the week prior. Against the New Zealand dollar this has seen a pull back from just under 0.7700 to 0.7500 so far. Data from NZ over the past week hasn’t had a big impact but tomorrow’s dairy auction from Fonterra could certainly influence the local currency. Another decline will raise doubts about the forecasted pay-out and could easily pressure the NZD back toward 0.7400. From the US there is plenty to digest this week starting with CB consumer confidence tonight. Later in the week we get ISM manufacturing PMI, the trade balance, and the all-important non-farm payrolls numbers.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
NZD/USD 0.7505 0.7400 0.7600 0.7487 - 0.7689

Friday 27th Mar 1:30pm(NZT)
The New Zealand dollar rallied up through 0.7600 in the early stages of the week and spend much of the past five days ranging between there and 0.7689. Apart from Durable Goods orders, data from the US this week was slightly supportive of the US dollar and as such the NZD has started to drift back in the past 24 hours. Comments from the Fed’s Lockhart on Wednesday night also played a big part in supporting the USD and we have seen the pair slip back below 0.7600 on two occasions since then. There is still plenty of volatility however, with a full one cent range trading in the past 12 hours alone. With the pair currently sitting just below 0.7600 the immediate risks are for further tests to the downside. I don’t think we’re on our way back toward 0.7200 in any sort of hurry though and the NZD could well find some support around the 0.7500 level over the coming week.
The current interbank midrate is:    NZDUSD 0.7594

The interbank range this week has been:    NZDUSD 0.7407 - 0.7689
Tuesday 24th Mar 12:30pm(NZT)
Last Thursday’s FOMC rate statement has been the key driver for the USD and we have seen some real volatility since. The knee jerk reaction to that statement was to sell USD’s and a vicious move up through initial resistance at 0.7450 ensued. That opened the way for a test of the much stronger 0.7600 resistance level, but before that developed the USD made a surprising comeback. On Thursday evening, and a mere 12 hours after trading at 0.7540, the NZD went all the way back to 0.7375. From there however, a sustained rally developed and this saw 0.7600 tested in early trade yesterday. It took a few hours, but eventually 0.7600 was overcome, and a wave of stop-loss buying saw a very quick spike up to 0.7660. Overnight the gains have continued and the pair has now cemented a solid foot hold above 0.7600. The topside target from here is a test of the 0.7850 level. Key to any further potential strength however will be the outcome of US inflation and durable goods orders data over the coming 48 hours. If that data prints on the softer side of expectation, the current rally will certainly continue.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
NZD/USD 0.7670 0.7600 0.7850 0.7276 - 0.7674

Thursday 19th Mar 2:45pm(NZT)
The New Zealand dollar saw a period of pressure mid-week on the back of a disappointing dairy auction from Fonterra. The local currency traded down to 0.7276 before USD weakness, in the lead up to the FOMC statement, helped turn the pair around. The market was right to be cautious about what the Fed would say as their statement, release early this morning, came across a lot more ‘dovish’ than the last one. This sparked a sharp decline in the value of the USD across the board. The NZD briefly traded as his as 0.7547 before markets settled down. The break above resistance around 0.7450 now opens the way for a test of the key 0.7600 level. On the downside 0.7450 will now act as support, and buying ahead of there is recommended for those looking to purchase NZD’s over the coming week. Tonight from the US we have the Philly Fed manufacturing index to digest, then next week we get inflation data, new home sales, durable goods orders, and the final reading of GDP. From New Zealand next week we just have consumer sentiment and the trade balance set for release.
The current interbank midrate is:    NZDUSD 0.7510

The interbank range this week has been:    NZDUSD 0.7276 - 0.7547
Tuesday 17th Mar 3:00pm(NZT)
The New Zealand dollar bounced strongly from levels just below 0.7200 late last week. The move was driven by the RBNZ, who are likely to remain on hold for the foreseeable future, and by softer than forecast US economic releases. Disappointing data from the US continued in the early stages of this week and it is causing some profit taking on long (bought) USD positions ahead of the FOMC statement. That statement hits the wires early on Thursday morning and is a major focus for the markets. The Fed are expected to ‘tweak’ the wording of the statement which would be a signal they remain on track to hike rates around June. If however, they acknowledge the recent weakness in many economic indicators the USD could see further pressure. With key support around 0.7200 and strong resistance around 0.7600, that leaves plenty of room for the New Zealand dollar to range around in over the coming weeks and potentially months. Ahead of 0.7600 there is minor resistance at 0.7450 and so far this has capped the recent NZD strength. A dovish statement from the Fed would see this level come under serious pressure. From New Zealand this week we have another dairy auction from Fonterra along with quarterly GDP data.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
NZD/USD 0.7380 0.7200 0.7450 0.7192 - 0.7438

Friday 13th Mar 12:30pm(NZT)
Up until yesterday morning the New Zealand dollar was under relentless pressure from the USD. The currency traded down just under 0.7200 heading into the Reserve Banks of New Zealand’s Monetary Policy Statement. That statement failed to provide the market with any fresh reason/motivation to sell the currency and as such we saw a sharp bounce back to 0.7300. That may have been the extent of the recovery, but then last night the US produced another set of soft retail sales figures and the USD lost ground across the board. This helped the drive the NZD to just shy of resistance around 0.7450. A two and a half cent rally against the USD in less than 24 hours is real volatility and we can expect more of the same over the coming weeks and months. We may well be in for an extended period of range trading between 0.7600 and 0.7200 until a clearer picture of whether or not the US is likely to hike rates in June appears. To that extent, next week’s FOMC rate statement will be very closely watched. Other US releases to watch out for next week include industrial production, building permits and the Philly Fed manufacturing index. While from NZ we have another Fonterra dairy auction along with current account and GDP data to digest.
The current interbank midrate is:    NZDUSD 0.7395

The interbank range this week has been:    NZDUSD 0.7192 - 0.7509
Tuesday 10th Mar 2:30pm(NZT)
The New Zealand dollar suffered last week on the back of two key releases. The first was from the RBNZ when they announced they are looking to create a new asset class for property investors, and the second was a strong US employment result. It was the latter release out on Friday evening that pushed the NZD down through support around 0.7450 all the way to a low so far of 0.7324. The focus is now firmly on a test back below 0.7200 over the coming week or two. The key event this week will be the RBNZ monetary policy statement on Thursday morning. There is some real uncertainty around what the central bank will say, although they are likely to maintain their current neutral stance. We should get a further insight into what sort of macro-prudential tools could potentially be implemented for property investors, and the bank will also not miss the opportunity to try and talk the currency down. These factors only reinforce the near term negative outlook for the NZD and the potential for a retest of cycle lows below 0.7200.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
NZD/USD 0.7334 0.7200 0.7450 0.7324 - 0.7609

Friday 6th Mar 2:00pm(NZT)
The New Zealand dollar had two solid attempts to break above resistance around 0.7600 this week, but failed sustain them both. The decision by the Reserve Bank of Australia not to cut interest rates on Tuesday boosted the AUD and this dragged the NZD higher up to the 0.7600 resistance level. But two failed attempts later and the NZD was vulnerable. All it took was a release from the RBNZ suggesting they are looking to create a new asset class for property investing, and sellers emerged. The local currency then saw relentless pressure toward the initial support level of 0.7450.  We have seen a small bounce from that level, but the damage has been done. This could well be the start of the longer term downtrend reasserting itself. If that is indeed the case the pair will target recent lows around 0.7200 over the coming weeks. Key to near term direction will be the release of tonight’s non-farm payrolls data from the US. A strong number here would certainly encourage further selling. Next week from New Zealand we have the RBNZ rate meeting on Thursday to draw focus. This will be followed by the Business NZ manufacturing index on Friday. From the US we have retail sales, producer prices, and consumer sentiment data to look forward to.
The current interbank midrate is:    NZDUSD 0.7484

The interbank range this week has been:    NZDUSD 0.7455 - 0.7609
Tuesday 3rd Mar 2:30pm(NZT)
The New Zealand dollar remains entrenched in a trading range below the key resistance level of 0.7600. Some mixed data released from the United States over the past week hasn’t dented support for the USD to any significant degree. We are likely to see further ranging ahead of the key US employment report set for release on Friday. Today’s RBA rate decision could certainly impact some volatility on the NZD, but the pair is unlikely to break out of the current 0.7400 to 7600 range. Taking a look at the broader picture and as long as 0.7600 caps the topside the risks remain skewed to further weakness and an eventual test back toward 0.7200. That outlook would change however on a sustained break above 0.7600.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
NZD/USD 0.7508 0.7450 0.7600 0.7425 - 0.7613

Friday 27th Feb 1:00pm(NZT)
The New Zealand dollar has had a sizable trading range against the United States dollar this week, although the net result is that the pair is little changed from where it was this time last Friday. Key resistance around 0.7600 has continued to cap the topside, although we did see a very quick spike to 0.7613 last night, before better than forecast US data turned the pair around. Earlier in the week the NZD was driven to its low of 0.7425 on the back of a fall in NZ inflation expectations, but there seems to be decent support toward 0.7400. Overall there has been little this week to alter the current outlook for either economy. The RBNZ are expected to remain on hold for 2015 while the Fed are likely still on track to hike interest rates around June, or soon thereafter. With those expectations firmly baked into the market there will be little impetus for the cross to break out of the current 0.7400 to 0.7600 range. Tonight from the US we have GDP data to draw focus and next week we get the ISM manufacturing and non-manufacturing PMI’s along with key employment data. From NZ next week we just have another Fonterra dairy auction to digest.
The current interbank midrate is:    NZDUSD 0.7539

The interbank range this week has been:    NZDUSD 0.7425 - 0.7613
Tuesday 24th Feb 2:30pm(NZT)
The past week has seen relatively quiet trading for this pair below the key resistance level of 0.7600. For the most part the downside has been contained to levels around 0.7500, although we saw a brief dip to 0.7483 last night. This directionless trade may not last for much longer. A key testimony from Fed Chair Yellen tonight could well spark a broad move in the value of the USD. The market will be looking for any indication as to whether the Fed are likely to hike interest rates in June or not, and that expectation will drive the USD in the near term. Watch for any sustained break above 0.7600 as this could well indicate the start of a much broader correction higher. A target of 0.7850 could easily be achievable in that case. If Yellen suggests the Fed are remaining on course to hike in June then the pair will see downside pressure again. A break below 0.7450 would then open the way for a move back to 0.7300 and potentially 0.7200.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
NZD/USD 0.7530 0.7450 0.7600 0.7483 - 0.7572

Thursday 19th Feb 2:30pm(NZT)
The New Zealand dollar has maintained a firm footing against the United States dollar and a test of resistance around 0.7600 is looking increasingly likely. Data this week from NZ has supported the local currency, with a strong result from retail sales and another healthy increase in dairy prices. From the US we have seen further disappointing data, but the most interesting release was the FOMC minutes which hit the wires this morning. There was the first hint that the Fed may hold off tightening rates in June, preferring instead to wait for further signs of continued growth and a bottom in inflation. The USD immediately came under pressure across the board and the risk is there for a much bigger clean out of long (bought) USD positions. A sustained break above 0.7600 would be a warning signal that such a clean out was underway. A move toward 0.7700 and possible even 0.7850 could then develop. Initial support on the downside comes in at 0.7500 and this should contain any weakness in the near term.
The current interbank midrate is:    NZDUSD 0.7555

The interbank range this week has been:    NZDUSD 0.7316 - 0.7569
Tuesday 17th Feb 3:30pm(NZT)
Last week’s break above 0.7450 resistance was strong indication the NZD wanted to head higher in the near term and so far this week we have seen gains up to 0.7528.  Weaker than expected US data releases in the form of retail sales and consumer sentiment have aided the move with the US dollar a touch weaker across the board as a result. These have contrasted with New Zealand retail sales numbers that hit the wires yesterday showing a stronger than expected increase. There is potential for this move in the NZD to test the next key resistance level of 0.7600 and I expect we will see that over the coming week. The 0.7600 area will however, provide a tough topside barrier and those looking to purchase USD’s should take advantage of any gain toward that level. Still to come this week from NZ, we have the latest dairy auction from Fonterra along with the producer prices index. While from the US we get building permits, producer prices, industrial production, the FOMC minutes, and the Philly Fed manufacturing index.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
NZD/USD 0.7515 0.7450 0.7600 0.7316 - 0.7528

Friday 13th Feb 2:30pm(NZT)
The New Zealand dollar spent most of this week repeatedly testing topside resistance at 0.7450. After getting rejected for the fifth time at that level yesterday the local currency seemed to have finally given up and the pair drifted lower toward 0.7320. A weak Australian dollar helped to cement this move and for the NZD it looked like a test below 0.7300 was on the cards. Overnight however, we have seen a sharp reversal off those lows, driven by soft US data and something of a recovery in commodity prices. The NZD rallied all the way back up to, and briefly then over, 0.7450 making a high of 0.7474. There were no doubt many stop loss orders just above 0.7450 and this move has cleaned them out. Direction from here is a tough call. Although the break above 0.7450 was only brief, it has dramatically increased the chances of a broader recovery back toward 0.7600. We have another dairy auction from Fonterra next week to digest along with the latest NZ retail sales data. Tonight from the US we get a key reading on consumer sentiment, and next week we have building permits, producer prices, and the FOMC minutes to draw focus.
The current interbank midrate is:    NZDUSD 0.7428

The interbank range this week has been:    NZDUSD 0.7316 - 0.7474
Monday 9th Feb 4:00pm(NZT)
The New Zealand dollar staged a strong recovery from recent lows in the second half of last week, thanks in part to a big squeeze of US dollar positions. This saw the local currency trade up to resistance around 0.7450 before running out of steam. The pair was testing that level for a second time on Friday night just ahead of key US employment data, but that positive employment result quickly turned the market around and saw the cross down 100 points. Having twice been rejected from 0.7450 over the past few days the risks have now swung back to the downside and I would expect to see the pair trade down through 0.7300 over the coming days. Offshore factors will continue to be the main driver this week with only the Business NZ Manufacturing Index on Thursday set for release from New Zealand. From the US the focus turns to retail sales and consumer sentiment data out on Thursday and Friday respectively.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
NZD/USD 0.7351 0.7200 0.7400 0.7177 - 0.7445

Thursday 5th Feb 2:30pm(NZT)
It has been a very volatile week in the market in general and the New Zealand dollar has not escaped the action. The NZD traded to a fresh cycle low against the USD at 0.7177 in the immediate aftermath of the rate cut announcement from the Reserve Bank of Australia on Tuesday. That dip was short lived however, as massive US dollar squeeze developed on Tuesday night, triggered by some soft US data and a bounce in commodity prices. In the space of a few hours the NZD had recovered all the way toward 0.7440. Resistance around 0.7450 has so far capped the gains and while that remains the case renewed downside price action is likely. We do have key US employment data on Friday night and one must be mindful of the risk that a very weak number could trigger an even bigger squeeze up through 0.7450. If that were to develop a move toward 0.7600 is likely, with initial resistance around the .7520 level. The exceptional volatility in the market at the moment provides as much opportunity as it does risk. Working live orders at desired levels is recommended as some price moves are only lasting a short period of time before being completely reversed.
The current interbank midrate is:    NZDUSD 0.7355

The interbank range this week has been:    NZDUSD : 0.7177 - 0.7445
Tuesday 3rd Feb 4:00pm(NZT)
The New Zealand dollar was punished last week in the wake of the RBNZ statement. Subsequently, it has managed to stabilize somewhat and even bounce a touch from the lows. A weaker than expected US GDP figure on Friday combined with a fall in the ISM manufacturing index last night has seen the USD give back some ground across the board and this helped to lift the NZD up over 0.7300 last night. These recent gains have  done nothing to threaten the broader downtrend which will likely reassert itself at some stage. However, there is plenty of potential for further corrective gains before we run into levels that will excite NZD sellers. Minor resistance comes in around 0.7400, with key topside resistance now at 0.7600. Those looking to purchase USD’s should take advantage of any potential bounce toward 0.7600 as I expect that level to cap the topside over the coming weeks. Fonterra’s dairy auction, employment data and a speech from Governor Wheeler will be focus of NZ releases over the coming days. From the US we have the ISM non-manufacturing PMI tomorrow and non-farm payrolls data on Friday to draw focus.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
NZD/USD 0.7310 0.7200 0.7400 0.7217 - 0.7493

Friday 30th Jan 2:00pm(NZT)
The New Zealand dollar spent much of this week treading water between 0.7400 and 0.7500, patiently waiting for the outcomes of yesterday’s Fed and RBNZ rate meetings. The Fed’s slightly ‘hawkish’ tone suggested they are staying on course for rate hikes beginning around mid-year, or soon thereafter, and as such this has only encouraged further buying of USD’s. The RBNZ released a statement that showed they have moved to a very neutral stance, and although this was widely expected, the currency acted like it was something of a surprise. Support at 0.7400 immediately gave way as the NZD plummeted into the low 0.73’s. It sat there for much of the day failing to put in any significant recovery, and overnight further selling has seen it trade down to a low of 0.7235. This has been very weak price action and sellers will be lining up to take advantage of any bounce. The 2011 low of 0.7113 looks like a reasonable target at this stage with little in the way of technical support between there and the current level. Employment data and the latest dairy auction will draw focus next week from New Zealand. While from the States we get manufacturing and non-manufacturing PMI’s, the trade balance, and non-farm payrolls data.
The current interbank midrate is:    NZDUSD 0.7277

The interbank range this week has been:    NZDUSD 0.7235 - 0.7526
Tuesday 27th Jan 4:30pm(NZT)
The New Zealand dollar has remained under pressure this week testing levels below the 0.7450 support in the past 48 hours. However, it does seem downside momentum is waning a touch and I would be surprised to see further significant weakness ahead of Thursday morning’s two key central bank statements. Direction over the near and medium term will depend of the tone of the both the Fed and RBNZ rate statements. In December the RBNZ were surprisingly hawkish suggesting further interest rate rises were likely, but it seems those could be a long way off. Very soft inflation and growth concerns in various parts of the world show be enough to see the RBNZ on hold into mid-2016. From the Fed the market will be keen to see if they have altered their view that rate hikes are like coming in the second half of this year. The other data of significance this week will be US GDP on Friday.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
NZD/USD 0.7427 0.7400 0.7600 0.7399 - 0.7779

Friday 23th Jan 2:00pm(NZT)
The US dollar has reigned supreme this week making broad based gains across the board. The New Zealand dollar has traded nearly four cents down from its high of the week to its low. Key support around 0.7600 gave way in the wake of the surprise rate cut announcement from the Bank of Canada. The Canadian dollar got hammered and the other commodity currencies of New Zealand and Australia followed suit. The NZD has also been weighed on by softer than forecast inflation data and a growing realization that the RBNZ are likely to be on hold well into next year. With 0.7600 support out of the way the focus turned to 0.7450 and the local currency has quickly made its way toward that level. I would expect 0.7450 to contain this bout of weakness. Those looking to sell USD and purchase NZD in the near term should look to purchase ahead of that level as a corrective bounce could easily develop. We have the RBNZ official cash rate review next week on Thursday and this will provide main focus locally. While from the US have durable goods orders, consumer confidence, new home sales, the FOMC statement and GDP data to digest.
The current interbank midrate is:    NZDUSD 0.7515

The interbank range this week has been:    NZDUSD 0.7484 - 0.7856
Tuesday 20th Jan 3:30pm(NZT)
We have seen plenty of volatility in the New Zealand dollar over the past four weeks, however there has been little in the way of overall direction. A broad trading range of 0.7600 to 0.7900 has developed and this has actually contained trading since the beginning of December. The favoured approach is to sell into NZ dollar strength, with the US dollar still very much expected to appreciate further over the coming months. Support around 0.7600 is turning into a key level and until we see a break below there, a broader corrective rally could still unfold. If such a rally saw the pair break above 0.7900 there is potential for a move as high as 0.8100. On the down side, if 0.7600 does eventually give way, the next target will be 0.7450. From the United States this week we have building permits, housing starts, weekly unemployment claims and manufacturing PMI data to digest. While from NZ the focus turns to tomorrow’s inflation data.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
NZD/USD 0.7758 0.7700 0.7900 0.7690 - 0.7889

Friday 19th Dec 1:00pm(NZT)
A couple of positive releases from New Zealand this week have provided periods of NZ dollar strength, but these haven’t been maintained in the face of broad USD gains. A 2.4% increase in dairy prices at Fonterra’s latest auction and yesterday’s much better than forecast NZ GDP data both caused temporary surges in demand for NZD’s, but overriding these was a strong USD buoyed by the Fed who took a small step toward hiking rates yesterday morning. At this point it looks like the Fed are on track to increase interest rates around the middle of next year and this is underpinning demand for US dollars. Anything toward 0.7900 looks like good selling at the moment for this pair, with support coming in for the time being on dips below 0.7700.
The current interbank midrate is:    NZDUSD 0.7765

The interbank range this week has been:    NZDUSD 0.7682 - 0.7846
Tuesday 16th Dec 4:00pm(NZT)
After spiking up to 0.7865 in the wake of last Thursday’s RBNZ statement the New Zealand dollar has slowly retraced much of the gains. Solid US data, particularly that of retail sales, consumer sentiment and capacity utilization has helped support the USD as we head into what should be an important FOMC rate statement on Thursday morning. The market is keen to get a hint of the timing for the first rate hike and this will be key in determining near term direction for the USD. Ahead of that release we have another dairy auction from Fonterra to digest, NZ GDP data and US inflation figures. Minor support around 0.7700 provides the immediate barrier on the downside while initial topside resistance is now seen around 0.7850. By all indications market liquidity is already thinning out ahead of the Christmas period and this could easily see exaggerated moves take place during periods of volatility.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
NZD/USD 0.7744 0.7700 0.7900 0.7609 - 0.7865

Thursday 11th Dec 4:00pm(NZT)
The New Zealand dollar made fresh cycle lows against the USD earlier this week at 0.7609. Since then however, we have seen a significant recovery which was seriously boosted by the RBNZ this morning. The central bank surprised markets with a more hawkish statement than expected, referring to the need for further increases in the OCR. The NZD lept one and a quarter cents against USD and currently remains very well supported. A move back toward 0.7900 could easily develop, although we do have some key US data out over the next 48 hours. Retail sales, producer prices and consumer sentiment are all set for release in the US ahead of the weekend and any softer than expected readings will only encourage further NZD buying. Next week should also prove very interesting in the US with inflation data and the FOMC statement set for release. It seems likely the Fed will drop its reference to “a considerable time” between the end of QE and rate hikes. The market will take that as a signal the first rate hike is less than six months away. From NZ next week we have another dairy auction and GDP data to digest.
The current interbank midrate is:    NZDUSD 0.7818

The interbank range this week has been:    NZDUSD 0.7609 - 0.7865
Tuesday 9th Dec 3:30pm(NZT)
The New Zealand dollar has seen pressure from the USD this past week and yesterday traded to fresh cycle lows at 0.7624. The USD saw broad based gains on the back of some stellar employment gains on Friday evening which has increased the risk of rate hikes in the US coming sooner than expected. Adding to the NZD’s woes is the expectation of a significant downward revision to Fonterra’s forecast payout for the 2014/15 season, which is likely to be released over the coming days. Along with the RBNZ, who should also downgrade GDP and inflation forecasts when they release their Monetary Policy Statement on Thursday morning. The degree to which the central bank scales back its forecasts could be the key determinant in just how much further downside the NZD will see over the coming week. From a technical point of view the break below recent lows around 0.7660 opens the way for a move toward support around 0.7450.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
NZD/USD 0.7630 0.7450 0.7660 0.7624 - 0.7890

Thursday 4th Dec 3:30pm(NZT)
The New Zealand dollar has lost ground to the US dollar this week, driven lower by weak commodity prices and some broad based gains for the USD. A further fall in dairy prices, particularly for whole milk powder, has weighed heavily in the local currency with the pair now trading just above 0.7750. Generally supportive US data has also helped the USD make gains across the board and this keeps the immediate focus on the downside for the pair. There is support around 0.7700 and then again at the recent cycle lows of 0.7658 and a test of one, or both of those levels seems likely at this stage. Key to further weakness however will be tomorrow night US employment report and this release will set the tone heading into next week. The focus will then turn to the RBNZ monetary policy statement on Thursday. While from the US we have retail sales, producer prices and consumer sentiment data to draw attention.
The current interbank midrate is:    NZDUSD 0.7748

The interbank range this week has been:    NZDUSD 0.7738 - 0.7925
Tuesday 2nd Dec 1:30pm(NZT)
The past week has seen a continuation of recent price action with the New Zealand dollar finding support down around 0.7780, but struggling to maintain gains over 0.7900. Local data last week had little impact on the value of the NZD and the same can be said for Governor Wheeler’s speech yesterday. Tonight’s dairy auction from Fonterra however, could certainly impact and will be closely watched. The market is already expecting Fonterra to revise down their forecasted pay-out for 2014/15 and any further weakness in dairy prices could see a bigger downward revision. Although data from the US remains supportive of the economic outlook going forward, it does indicate something of a moderation in growth from the very strong pace seen in the third quarter. As such the broad based gains seen in the USD through July, August and September have paused and the past two months have seen mostly consolidation and range trading. At present, market forecasts are centred around a rate hike from the Fed in the middle of next year, but if low inflation, slower US growth and a weakening global economy see those expectations pushed back, the USD could give back some of its earlier gains. Under this scenario at break back above 0.8000 would be seen in this pair, which would then target a move back toward 0.8200. We have a number of Fed speakers scheduled for this week and the market will be keen to get a sense of their current thinking with regard to the timing of rate hikes. We also have key data in the form of non-manufacturing ISM and the non-farm payroll employment report.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
NZD/USD 0.7867 0.7700 0.7900 0.7768 - 0.7925

Friday 28th Nov 1:00pm(NZT)
The first half of this week saw the New Zealand dollar under pressure from the USD, with the pair trading down to 0.7768 thanks in part to much better than expected US GDP data and declining NZ inflation expectations. But since then we have seen a sharp turn around with the pair managing to briefly trade back up over 0.7900. A rash of softer than forecast US data has been the key factor in this recovery and this leaves the pair trading close to the middle of the broad 0.7700 - 0.8000 range that has dominated price actions for the past two months. The lack of overall direction should continue next week when from NZ we have the overseas trade index and Fonterra’s latest dairy auction. While from the US there is plenty of key data to digest with the highlights being manufacturing and non-manufacturing PMI’s, the Fed’s Beige Book and non-farm payrolls.
The current interbank midrate is:    NZDUSD 0.7860

The interbank range this week has been:    NZDUSD 0.7768 - 0.7943
Tuesday 25th Nov 3:30pm(NZT)
The New Zealand dollar has remained largely range bound against the USD over the past week with price action mostly contained below the 0.7900 level. We did see a short lived spike up to 0.7946 on Friday evening in the wake of the surprise rate cut from China, but the pair could not sustain the gains. In the past 24 hours the NZD has also been weighed on by a declining Australian dollar that saw pressure in the wake of the announcement from BHP Billiton that they are to cut investment and spending. US data remains supportive of the US economy going forward and this should also help to limit periods of relative NZD strength. Selling levels over 0.7900 remains the preferred option at this stage. Still to come this week from NZ we have the trade balance, building consents and business confidence numbers. While from the US we get consumer confidence, durable goods orders and new home sales data.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
NZD/USD 0.7845 0.7700 0.7900 0.7808 - 0.7974

Friday 21st Nov 1:30pm(NZT)
The New Zealand dollar was supported early in the week by strong retail sales data and this helped the drive the local currency up to 0.7974 against the USD on two occasions. The pair couldn’t kick on however, and this double failure was then compounded by falling dairy prices at Fonterra’s regular auction. The NZD then fell back below 0.7900 which is a big signal that this recent period of relative strength may well have run its course. This would suggest we are likely to see a further weakening in the NZD over the coming days, perhaps back down toward 0.7700. There is some concern that the USD has failed to take full advantage of the positive data released from the States over the past few days and this may be that sign that the market is positioned too long (brought) USD’s. If this is the case there is the risk of a much broader cleanout of those positions at some stage. Any move back up through 0.7975 will signal that just such a clean out is under way and a much broader rally could quickly unfold. Until then however, the risks remain skewed to further weakness toward the lower end of the recent range around 0.7700. Next week from NZ we have inflation expectations, the trade balance, building consents and business confidence data to digest. While from the US we get GDP, consumer confidence, durable goods orders, and new home sales data.
The current interbank midrate is:    NZDUSD 0.7863

The interbank range this week has been:    NZDUSD 0.7808 - 0.7974
Tuesday 18th Nov 3:00pm(NZT)
The New Zealand dollar has continued to be a strong performer and recent gains against the USD have taken this pair to within a stone’s throw of 0.8000. The USD struggled to find support at the end of last week from better retail sales and consumer sentiment data, as the market instead focused on declining inflation expectations. This kept the big dollar under pressure and then the NZD received a boost yesterday in the wake of strong NZ retails sales numbers. That helped drive the pair up to its 0.7974 high, before a correction back to 0.7900 ensued. For now the focus is still very much on the topside, however, resistance around 0.8000 should continue to provide a touch barrier and selling ahead of there is recommended for those looking to purchase USD’s. In NZ the focus now turns to Fonterra’s dairy auction tonight which will be followed by producer prices data on Thursday. While from the US tonight we get producer prices data then later in the week the focus turns to building permits, the FOMC minutes, inflation data and the Philadelphia Fed manufacturing index.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
NZD/USD 0.7932 0.7800 0.8000 0.7715 - 0.7974

Friday 14th Nov 1:30pm(NZT)
The past week has seen the New Zealand dollar stage a significant recovery against the USD, after briefly testing below 0.7700 support around this time last week. The pair traded to a high last night of 0.7927 and we could easily see this NZD strength continue toward 0.8000 over the coming days. The rally is probably as much about short (sold) positions squaring up after the failure to kick on below 0.7700, than anything else. The cross should start to run out of steam toward 0.8000 and selling ahead of that level is recommended. Next week from NZ we have retail sales, producer prices, and the latest Fonterra dairy auction to digest. While from the US we get producer prices, building permits, the FOMC minutes, inflation data and the Philly Fed manufacturing index.
The current interbank midrate is:    NZDUSD 0.7875

The interbank range this week has been:    NZDUSD 0.7662 - 0.7927
Tuesday 11th Nov 2:00pm(NZT)
For most of last week the New Zealand dollar saw pressure from an appreciating USD. Stronger than expected NZ employment data helped the local currency make temporary gains, but these were quickly pounced on by USD buyers looking to take advantage of any periods of relative weakness. The pair headed into the all-important US employment data on Friday evening trading just below 0.7700. The failure of that data to live up to market expectations resulted in significant selling pressure on the USD and as such the pair made a strong run back up to 0.7820. In the past 12 hours we have seen the USD regain some composure and the pair now trades back around 0.7750. Although the US employment data has taken the immediate pressure off the downside, the longer term trend remains toward further weakness and selling into periods of NZ dollar strength is still recommended. The markets ability to break below key support last week at 0.7700 is a signal that the path of least resistance will be to the downside. The RBNZ’s Financial Stability Report will draw focus tomorrow as will comments from Governor Wheeler when he testifies in front of a parliamentary committee. While from the US later in the week we get retail sales and consumer sentiment data to digest.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
NZD/USD 0.7754 0.7700 0.7900 0.7662 - 0.7839

Friday 7th Nov 1:30pm(NZT)
The US dollar continues to be the dominate force in the market at the moment, seeing significant gains across the board over the course of this week. The New Zealand dollar regained some ground in the wake of better than expected NZ employment data, but these were quickly reversed as buyers of USD’s took advantage of any periods of weakness. This eventually saw the key support level of 0.7700 give way and although there hasn’t been much follow through on the downside just yet, this is largely because the market is awaiting the key non-farm payrolls data from the US tonight. All indications are this could be very big number possibly +300k or so, and if that is the case the USD will quickly gain further ground. Taking a look at the longer term, with support at 0.7700 now out of the way a move toward 0.7450 seems likely over the coming weeks / months. Next week from NZ we have the RBNZ’s financial stability report and the Business NZ manufacturing index to draw focus. While from the US attention will turn to retail sales and consumer sentiment data.
The current interbank midrate is:    NZDUSD 0.7688

The interbank range this week has been:    NZDUSD 0.7677 - 0.7978
Tuesday 4th Nov 2:30pm(NZT)
The New Zealand dollar has lost significant ground to the USD over the past week driven by broad based strength in the USD, as well as some weakness in the local currency. The biggest reaction came in the wake of last Thursday’s Fed and RBNZ announcements, which both put downward pressure on the pair. The NZD lost around two cents to the USD falling from 0.7970 to 0.7770 in the space of just a few hours. A small recovery ensued, but then strong US GDP data on Friday night saw the pair take another leg lower. Soft NZ building consent data didn’t help either and last night’s better than forecast US manufacturing PMI release saw the pair eventually test key support at 0.7700. So far that level has contained the downside, but it looks set to come under increasing pressure. A sustained break below 0.7700 would open the way for a move toward 0.7450 in the medium term. If however, 0.7700 can contain the weakness for now we will likely see a bounce back up over 0.7800. Any such strength is a selling opportunity as the longer term trend is down. From New Zealand this week we have employment data and the latest dairy auction to digest, while from the US we have the trade balance, ISM non-manufacturing PMI, non-farm payrolls data and a speech from Fed Chair Janet Yellen.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
NZD/USD 0.7725 0.7700 0.7900 0.7703 - 0.7977

Thursday 30th Oct 3:30PM (NZT)
For most of this week the New Zealand dollar saw grinding appreciation over the USD as data from the US had proved to be somewhat mixed. But that all changed on the back of the Fed and RBNZ announcements earlier this morning. The Fed’s more positive tone boosted the USD across the board and this drove the NZD down about 1 cent from where it was just prior to the release. Two hours later the RBNZ released their rate statement which struck a very neutral tone, largely confirming market expectations that the central bank will now be on hold until late next year. The NZD then came under pressure across the board losing another 50 cents to the USD. We have seen a small recovery from those lows, however the risks remain to the downside and a test of the key 0.7700 support level may well eventuate over the coming days. Next week from NZ we have another global dairy auction from Fonterra, along with the latest employment numbers. While from the US we have key data in the form of ISM manufacturing and non-manufacturing PMI’s, the trade balance and the monthly employment report.
The current interbank midrate is:    NZDUSD 0.7790

The interbank range this week has been:    NZDUSD 0.7774- 0.7977
Tuesday 28th Oct 2:30pm(NZT)
The New Zealand dollar lost ground to the USD in the second half of last week driven in large part by softer than forecast NZ inflation data. The NZD traded down to minor support around 0.7800 on Friday before staging a mild recovery. That recovery has been helped by a number of weaker than expected readings from the US, which have seen the USD lose ground across the board. With 0.7800 containing the downside for now there is potential for a drift higher ahead of the two central bank meetings on Thursday. Within a few hours of each other on Thursday morning we have the Fed and RBNZ rate statements and these will provide the main focus on the week. Key topside resistance comes in around 0.8050 and I expect this to contain any periods of strength in the near term. Also this week from NZ we get business confidence and building consents. While from the US we have durable goods orders, consumer confidence and GDP to digest.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
NZD/USD 0.7890 0.7800 0.8000 0.7806- 0.8026

Thursday 23th Oct 3:30PM (NZT)
For much of the past week the New Zealand dollar traded quietly against the USD ranging below the 0.8000 level. We did see a couple of investigations above 0.8000 on Tuesday evening, but both times the pair was quickly repelled. In the past 24 hours we have seen inflation data from both countries and this has resulted in a notable decline for the pair. US inflation came in at 1.7% year on year, vs expectations of 1.6%, while NZ inflation came in at 1.0% year on year, vs expectation of 1.2%. The US number lifted the USD somewhat, but the bigger reaction was that of a decline in the NZD after it’s softer than forecast inflation result. The tame inflation environment in New Zealand will now likely see the RBNZ remain on hold until very late next year and the NZD is reacting to that changing expectation. The pair could easily drift lower to test minor support around 0.7800 over the coming days. Major downside support comes in around 0.7700 and this is likely to contain any near term weakness. Next week from NZ we have the RBNZ rate statement to draw focus, while from the US we get durable goods orders, consumer confidence, the Fed rate meeting and GDP data.
The current interbank midrate is:    NZDUSD 0.7842

The interbank range this week has been:    NZDUSD 0.7834- 0.8026
Monday 20th Oct 3:30PM (NZT)
The New Zealand dollar made solid gains against the USD mid last week as concerns about global growth prospects morphed into wild market volatility. The NZD trade up close to 0.8000 before correcting lower. Although better US data in the second half of the week helped sentiment toward the USD, the local currency is still trading comfortably above 0.7900. Another test to the topside cannot be ruled out and there is potential for a test of resistance around 0.8050. Key to that however, will likely be the outcome from inflation data out of the US on Wednesday, and New Zealand on Thursday. On the downside there is minor support around 0.7850 ahead of the much stronger 0.7700 level. Other data to watch out from the US includes existing home sales, new home sales and weekly unemployment claims.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
NZD/USD 0.7950 0.7850 0.8050 0.7808- 0.7996

Friday 17th Oct 2:30PM (NZT)
After a relatively quiet start to the week volatility really picked up on Wednesday night as US equities and bonds had some big moves. Falling stocks and declining long term interest rates quickly flowed through into the foreign exchange market were the USD came under heavy selling pressure. As a result the New Zealand dollar traded close 0.8000 on a number of occasions, but couldn’t manage to overcome it. If we see further USD weakness over the coming days the market is likely to try and test resistance around 0.8050, but I expect that level to provide a tough topside barrier. Selling ahead of there is recommended for those looking to purchase USD. The increased volatility we are starting to see does provide opportunity and leaving limit orders near key levels is a good option to try and maximize value on transactions. Next week in New Zealand the focus turns to inflation data and the trade balance. While from the US we also have inflation along with manufacturing PMI and new home sales data.
The current interbank midrate is:    NZDUSD 0.7955

The interbank range this week has been:    NZDUSD 0.7797- 0.7996
Tuesday 14th Oct 2:30PM (NZT)
Swings in the value of the US dollar have been the main driver for this pair over the past week. The release of last Thursday’s Fed minutes saw the USD come under pressure across the board and this drove the NZD up to its 0.7974 high. The USD eventually recovered most of the lost ground, but it has started to weaken again in the early stages of this week. Weakness in US stock markets and declining long term US interest rates have undermined support for the USD and the NZD is once again threatening to test levels over 0.7900. Yesterday’s release of better than expected Chinese trade data has also helped the NZD with the focus now turning to Wednesday night’s dairy auction from Fonterra. Minor support around 0.7800 is containing any periods of weakness for now, with major support below that at 0.7700 well protected. On the topside, the prospect of a move toward resistance around 0.8050 remains in play over the coming weeks. Those looking to purchase US dollar should use that potential strength to lock a rate in ahead of the .8050 wholesale level. Data from the US this week to draw focus includes retail sales, the Philly Fed manufacturing index, building permits and consumer sentiment.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
NZD/USD 0.7860 0.7700 0.7900 0.7784- 0.7974

Friday 10th Oct 2:30PM (NZT)
Movements in this pair over the past week have been driven almost entirely by swings in demand for US dollars. At the very end of last week the pair tested support around 0.7700 for the second time after much better than forecast US employment numbers were released. But somewhat tellingly, the USD failed to hold onto those gains in the early stages of this week and this left the pair looking like a much broader correction higher was unfolding. The Fed minutes released early yesterday morning provided the trigger for just that correction as the market was somewhat surprised by the very ‘dovish’ tone of the minutes. This caused a wave of USD selling that drove the NZD up through resistance around 0.7900. The pair traded all the way up to 0.7974 last night before USD buyers eventually emerged. The NZD is now starting to look like a medium term bottom just above 0.7700 has formed and this would suggest potential for further corrective gains exist. We could easily see a test of key resistance around 0.8050 over the coming weeks. I would recommend selling ahead of that level for those looking to purchase USD’s. Although the longer term trend is still to the down side, we could well be in for a protracted period of ranging between 0.7700 and 0.8050 as the market consolidates the dramatic losses we have seen since mid-July.
The current interbank midrate is:    NZDUSD 0.7860

The interbank range this week has been:    NZDUSD 0.7715- 0.7974
Tuesday 7th Oct 2:30PM (NZT)
The past week has seen this pair swing wildly around between support at 0.7700 and resistance at 0.7900. The high of 0.7924 was set on Thursday afternoon in the wake of a nasty short squeeze in the New Zealand dollar, but these gains were short lived as the USD again found buyers in the wake of much better than expected employment data on Friday. That drove the back down toward support at 0.7700 for the second time in a little over a week. Once again however, the market failed to break lower and in the past 24 hours we have seen another strong recovery. The failure of the USD to hold onto gains made after the payrolls data suggests we could yet see further long (bought) USD positions squeezed out. This will likely see another test of resistance around 0.7900 in the coming days. A sustained break above 0.7900 will warn a bigger correction is developing which will then target 0.8050. With little in the way of data from NZ this week the focus turns to the Fed’s monetary policy meeting minutes set for release on Thursday morning.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
NZD/USD 0.7822 0.7700 0.7900 0.7715- 0.7924

Friday 3rd Oct 3:30PM (NZT)
It has been a very interesting week of price action in the New Zealand dollar. The week started with the big sell-off on Monday after the revelation of RBNZ intervention in August hit the wires. The NZD traded down to 0.7712 very quickly after that release and that level ended up being the week’s low. A raft of softer data out of the US this week saw demand for US dollars dry up, and the NZD held its ground surprisingly well even after Wednesday night’s poor dairy auction result. A few weeks ago a fall in dairy prices like that would have seen the NZD under all sorts of pressure, but not this week. Sometimes market positioning takes over from fundamentals in driving currency prices, and that is exactly what happened yesterday. The failure of the NZD to lose ground on the back of that dairy result was a warning the market had got itself positioned all one way. Then as the USD gradually weakened across the board yesterday it started a classic short squeeze in the NZD, which then triggered a wave of stop-loss buying. The NZD rallied from 0.7770 all the way up to 0.7900 with the last half a cent gain against the USD happening in mere seconds. Overnight the pair has consolidated these gains holding just below 0.7900. Whether or not this squeeze higher continues will largely depend on tonight’s key US employment data. A disappointing result could well see further gains in the NZD as even more positions get squeezed out. That however is not the favoured scenario. All indicators are that we should see a solid employment result in excess of 200k. That should encourage some renewed USD buying and help to cap any further gains in the NZD. Next week’s economic highlights are the quarterly NZIER business confidence reading from NZ, along with minutes from the latest Fed meeting out in the US.
The current interbank midrate is:    NZDUSD 0.7897

The interbank range this week has been:    NZDUSD 0.7712- 0.7956
Tuesday 30th Sept 12:00PM (NZT)
The past week has seen no respite for the New Zealand dollar that has remained under pressure from the USD. Broad based USD strength has played a part, but the most dramatic losses have followed two announcements from the Reserve Bank of New Zealand. Last Thursday’s press release justifying the case for intervention in the currency was followed yesterday by the revelation that the central bank had done just that back in August. The New Zealand dollar is now some 10 cents below its peak set in July and trying to pick the bottom of a move this strong has a very low probability of being right. The best you can do is watch the reaction around key support levels. Initial support comes in at 0.7700 and so far this has contained the weakness. A move below there will target 0.7450. Still to come this week from the US we have the manufacturing and non-manufacturing ISM indexes, the trade balance and the all-important employment report. From NZ we have Fonterra’s latest dairy auction on Wednesday night to draw focus.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
NZD/USD 0.7775 0.7700 0.7900 0.7712- 0.8145

Friday 26th Sept 3:30PM (NZT)
The New Zealand dollar continued to see pressure from a buoyant USD this week, although the big move came on the back of NZD weakness. This was driven by yesterday’s RBNZ release that did a very good job in talking the currency lower. “Unjustified” and “unsustainable” are words the central bank has used before to describe the NZD, but yesterday’s release went further suggesting these are key considerations in deciding whether or not to intervene. That veiled threat saw the NZD break below key support around 0.8050, a level that had held on four separate attempts in the 24 hours prior. Once below that support the technical picture looked heavy. The NZD saw relentless pressure throughout the afternoon and into the offshore trading session. The 0.8050 level will now provide solid resistance on any potential near term recovery, with the longer term targets now 0.7700 and then 0.7400. Next week from NZ we have building consents and business confidence data to digest. While from the US we get GDP and consumer sentiment data tonight followed by manufacturing and non-manufacturing PMI’s, the trade balance and non-farm payrolls next week.
The current interbank midrate is:    NZDUSD 0.7930

The interbank range this week has been:    NZDUSD 0.7913- 0.8173
Tuesday 23rd Sept 4:00PM (NZT)
Last Thursday’s FOMC statement caused a wave of US dollar buying and this helped to drive the New Zealand dollar down to recent cycle lows at 0.8079. Since then we have seen a small recovery and consolidation that has seen the pair trade up as high as 0.8177. However, this hasn’t impacted the broader downtrend that has been in play since mid-July and current risks remain skewed to further weakness. It would take a move back above 0.8200 to suggest a broader recovery might be unfolding, and until then we can expect further pressure with the target on the psychological level of 0.8000. This week is a quiet one for data from New Zealand, with only the trade balance of any note. While from the US we have new home sales, durable goods orders and weekly unemployment claims to digest.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
NZD/USD 0.8105 0.8000 0.8200 0.8079- 0.8228

Friday 19th Sept 2:00PM (NZT)
Domestic data has had little impact on the New Zealand dollar this week with offshore releases driving price action for the most part. The highs of the week traded in the wake of news out of China that the central bank was pumping liquidity into the banking system. The news of this ‘stimulus’ was seen a positive for commodity currencies like the NZD and negative for the USD. But that NZD strength was short lived as the FOMC statement took centre stage. That statement was supportive of the USD and as such the pair was driven to the week’s low of 0.8079. We have seen a decent bounce from those lows over the past 24 hours with the pair now trading close to where it began the week. Volatility has certainly picked up over the past few weeks and price action like this does provide opportunities for those looking to transact. Leaving limit orders in the market to take advantage of periods of strength or weakness is a good way to extract some extra value. The broad trend toward USD strength is still in play but as we approach levels around 0.8000 there seems to be a lot more two-way in the market.
The current interbank midrate is:    NZDUSD 0.8150

The interbank range this week has been:    NZDUSD 0.8079- 0.8228
Tuesday 16th Sept 3:00PM (NZT)
The New Zealand dollar has seen relentless depreciation against the USD over the past few weeks. An improving US economy has seen the big dollar make broad based gains and this coupled with some strong language from the RBNZ last Thursday helped to drive the pair down to 0.8125. In the past 24 hours we have seen a recovery from those lows, but this move can be viewed as a corrective bounce within the broader down trend. The pair could easily recover back toward 0.8280 before running into significant resistance. Selling into that potential strength is recommended for those looking to purchase USD’s. The immediate focus now turns to tonight’s dairy auction, then later in the week we current account and GDP data to digest. From the US this week we have the key releases of producer prices, inflation, building permits and the Philly Fed manufacturing index, along with the FOMC statement.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
NZD/USD 0.8190 0.8100 0.8300 0.8125- 0.8285

Friday 12th Sept 2:00PM (NZT)
The New Zealand dollar has continued its decline against the USD this week. The move has again been driven in large part by further strength from the United States dollar. Largely positive data from the US has kept their recovery on track and the USD looks set to rein supreme heading into the fourth quarter of 2014. Yesterday’s RBNZ monetary policy statement also caused some NZD weakness, particularly on the back of the strong language the central bank used to describe the still high value of the local currency. That helped to drive the pair down to its low so far of 0.8162. There is nothing to suggest this run of USD strength is anywhere near done, and although we might see periods of relative NZD outperformance, broad based demand for USD’s is likely to remain and this should drive the pair toward 0.8000, or below, over the coming months.
The current interbank midrate is:    NZDUSD 0.8168

The interbank range this week has been:    NZDUSD 0.8162- 0.8347
Tuesday 9th Sept 2:00PM (NZT)
The New Zealand dollar remains under pressure from a resurgent USD. The pair has traded to a cycle low of 0.8264 in the last 12 hours and the risks remain to the downside. Softer than expected US employment data on Friday evening did see a sharp spike higher for the pair, but the impact was short lived. This is very indicative of the current positive sentiment been shown to the USD and it underscores the expectation for further grinding appreciation in the USD over the coming months. Resistance comes in around 0.8400, although it looks unlikely to be tested in the near term. The favoured scenario is a move down towards 0.8200 with the risk of levels closer to 0.8000 by year end. The key event this week will be the RBNZ monetary policy statement on Thursday morning. If the central bank maintains more of a ‘hawkish’ stance than the market expects we could see a period of NZD strength develop.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
NZD/USD 0.8273 0.8200 0.8400 0.8264- 0.8391

Friday 5th Sept 2:30PM (NZT)
The New Zealand dollar has remained under pressure this week thanks in large part to another significant fall in dairy prices. The 6% drop comes on top of the 40% decline seen since February and provides no reason to buy New Zealand dollars. Weakness in the local currency has combined with further strength in the USD to see fresh cycle lows trade at 0.8271. The United States continues to see positive data which is supporting the USD and this should continue tonight with the release of the key employment report. Looking further out we could easily see the NZD down to around 0.8000 by late this year. Any potential corrective bounce in the pair will now run into strong resistance around 0.8400 and selling into this level is recommended. The focus in New Zealand next week will be on the RBNZ’s rate meeting while from the US we get retail sales and consumer sentiment data to digest.
The current interbank midrate is:    NZDUSD 0.8284

The interbank range this week has been:    NZDUSD 0.8289- 0.8398
Tuesday 2nd Sept 2:00PM (NZT)
It has been a relatively quiet week for the New Zealand dollar with the recovery from recent lows of 0.8312 stalling around the 0.8400 area. A sustained break above 0.8400 would open the way for gains up to the key resistance level of 0.8520, which would likely cap any near term strength. Selling into that potential strength is recommended as the USD should continue its path of appreciation over the coming weeks. Key to the very near term direction however, will be tonight’s dairy auction. Dairy prices stabilized somewhat a fortnight ago, after falling more than 40% since February. Another decline would again weigh on the NZD. From the US this week we should see a continuation of generally supportive data with both manufacturing and non-manufacturing PMI’s set for release along with the trade balance and Friday’s all important employment data.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
NZD/USD 0.8374 0.8300 0.8500 0.8312- 0.8405

Friday 29th Aug 1:30PM (NZT)
The New Zealand dollar traded down to a recent cycle low of just above 0.8300 early in the week, but since then we have seen corrective bounce back up toward 0.8400. A number of factors have helped the local currency stage this small recovery, but most importantly it seems the USD in general has taken a break from the broad based gains seen over recent weeks. US data has been almost uniformly positive and at some stage the USD will likely start appreciating again, but for now it seems happy to consolidate gains and catch its breath. News from Fonterra that they are forming a strategic partnership with a Chinese infant food manufacturer was encouraging and certainly should have a positive impact on trade in the long run. Standard and Poors have also this week affirmed the stable outlook for NZ’s AA credit rating. If the NZD can overcome the 0.8400 level, it could move as high as 0.8520. That level provides key resistance and I would be surprised to a move above there. Selling ahead of there is recommended for another eventual test of 0.8300. From the US next week we get manufacturing and non-manufacturing PMI’s, the trade balance, and non-farm payrolls data. While from NZ the economic calendar is looking very light with only the overseas trade index to draw focus.
The current interbank midrate is:    NZDUSD 0.8365

The interbank range this week has been:    NZDUSD 0.8312- 0.8426
Tuesday 26th Aug 1:30PM (NZT)
The New Zealand dollar maintained its downside bias last week, losing further ground to the USD. The most interesting price action came early yesterday morning when for no apparent reason the NZD fell half a cent in a few short minutes. Market conditions at the time were very thin with only the NZ banks providing liquidity and this no doubt exaggerated the move. However, of more interest is the complete lack of any recovery since then. This keeps all the focus on the downside and a test of 0.8300, and possible even 0.8200, could well eventuate in the near term. US data remains positive and although Fed Chair Janet Yellen seems very unconvinced about economic strength whenever she speaks, the USD certainly seems to be developing a trend of appreciation. Key data from the US this week includes durable goods orders, consumer confidence and GDP. While from NZ we still have building consents and business confidence to come.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
NZD/USD 0.8333 0.8200 0.8400 0.8312 - 0.8484

Friday 22nd Aug 4:55PM (NZT)
The New Zealand dollar has been under pressure this week on two fronts. Tuesday’s very soft producer prices data weighed heavily early in the week, but we have also seen almost universally strong US data which has caused some USD appreciation. The pair broke down through support around 0.8400 on its way to a 0.8351 low. We have seen a corrective bounce in the last 24 hours, but critically the pair hasn’t consolidated above the 0.8400 level which now acts as resistance. This keeps the focus on the downside and only a sustained recovery back above 0.8400 would change that. This weekend could prove very interesting with a keenly anticipated speech from Fed Chair Yellen scheduled for early tomorrow morning NZ time. Any hint from Yellen of a move toward a US rate hike sooner than expected should get a big reaction in the markets. Next week from New Zealand we have the trade balance, building consents, and business confidence data to draw focus. While in the US the focus turns to new home sales, durable goods orders, GDP, and pending home sales.
The current interbank midrate is:    NZDUSD 0.8392

The interbank range this week has been:    NZDUSD 0.8351- 0.8501
Tuesday 19th Aug 4:30PM (NZT)
Around this time last week the New Zealand dollar traded down to its recent low of 0.8409. However, there is strong support around 0.8400, as the failure to break below there saw the currency stage something of a recovery. Better than forecast retails sales numbers on Thursday also helped. But critically, the NZD failed on the topside just ahead of resistance at 0.8520. This left the currency looking vulnerable and today’s release of the much weaker than expected Producer Price Index was the trigger for another round of selling. The pair now trades back around 0.8435, and all the focus remains on the downside. Any break below 0.8400 would open the way for a move toward 0.8200 over the coming weeks. Key to near term direction however, will be tonight dairy auction. Another weak result could well see that downside support broken. From the US this week we also have some key releases with inflation, the Fed minutes and the Jackson Hole Symposium all scheduled over the coming days. With the markets expecting the Fed and Janet Yellen to remain very ‘dovish’ there is the risk of strong USD appreciation should that not be the case.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
NZD/USD 0.8440 0.8400 0.8600 0.8409- 0.8514

Friday 15th Aug 3:55PM (NZT)
Over the last two weeks this pair has established a nice little trading range between support at .8420 and resistance at .8520. Whilst the US dollar is overdue for a sustained period of increased demand, with US longer term interest rates at lows for the year, the US dollar is going to struggle to make material inroads in the short term. The New Zeald dollar side of the equation is also moderately uninspiring, even taking into account the solid retail sales numbers that came to light this week. Next week sees the US economic news provide the focus for the most part - with Tuesday GDT auction results offering the material NZ influence. Expect the current .8420 - .8520 trading range to provide some stern parameters initially, as some kind of surprising news will be required to forge new ground. If anything, a small bias remains for a weaker NZ dollar, but this fades somewhat as the US interests rate remain under pressure.
The current interbank midrate is:    NZDUSD .8480

The interbank range this week has been:    NZDUSD .8409 - .8513
Friday 22nd Aug 2:00PM (NZT)
The New Zealand dollar has been under pressure this week on two fronts. Tuesday’s very soft producer prices data weighed heavily early in the week, but we have also seen almost universally strong US data which has caused some USD appreciation. The pair broke down through support around 0.8400 on its way to a 0.8351 low. We have seen a corrective bounce in the last 24 hours, but critically the pair hasn’t consolidated above the 0.8400 level which now acts as resistance. This keeps the focus on the downside and only a sustained recovery back above 0.8400 would change that. This weekend could prove very interesting with a keenly anticipated speech from Fed Chair Yellen scheduled for early tomorrow morning NZ time. Any hint from Yellen of a move toward a US rate hike sooner than expected should get a big reaction in the markets. Next week from New Zealand we have the trade balance, building consents, and business confidence data to draw focus. While in the US the focus turns to new home sales, durable goods orders, GDP, and pending home sales.
The current interbank midrate is:    NZDUSD 0.8392

The interbank range this week has been:    NZDUSD 0.8351- 0.8501
Tuesday 12th Aug 2:00PM (NZT)
The past week has seen the New Zealand dollar trade in an ever decreasing range around the 0.8460 level. The broader trend is still very much down as soft commodity prices continue to weigh on the pair, although we are yet to see a decent test of support around 0.8400. On the topside the key resistance level comes in around 0.8520 and I would expect that to contain strength in the near term. Later this week from New Zealand we get the Business NZ manufacturing index along with retail sales. While from the US the focus turns to retail sales, producer prices and consumer sentiment.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
NZD/USD 0.8444 0.8400 0.8600 0.8426- 0.8531

Friday 8th Aug 2:30PM (NZT)
Price action in this pair over the past week has been dominated by the sharp declines seen in the value of the New Zealand dollar in the wake of a further fall in dairy prices and then soft employment data. Tuesday’s dairy auction saw another large fall in prices paid for NZ’s biggest export and as such the currency was immediately put under pressure. This was followed a few hours later by employment change data that came in below expectation at +0.4%. With sentiment already negative toward the NZD we saw another wave of selling that took the pair to its 0.8425 low. We have seen a decent bounce from those lows that made it all the way to just under 0.8500, however with continued strong US data releases selling into strength in the pair is still recommended. The broad down trend that started in the middle of July is still in play and further tests of 0.8400 are expected. Next week from NZ we have retail sales and the Business NZ manufacturing index. While from the US the focus turns to retail sales, producer prices, and consumer sentiment.
The current interbank midrate is:    NZDUSD 0.8452

The interbank range this week has been:    NZDUSD 0.8425- 0.8534
Tuesday 5th Aug 1:30PM (NZT)
The recent downward momentum of the NZD seems to have waned over the past week thanks in large part to the USD that failed to make further gains. Although last week’s US GDP data was very supportive, the Fed meeting provided little impetus for further buying and Friday’s payrolls data was also a touch disappointing. It wasn’t that the employment numbers were soft, they were in fact very consistent with the ongoing economic recovery, but they just weren’t strong enough to put pressure on the Fed to start thinking about when to raise rates. On the back of Friday’s release the NZD managed to recover back above resistance at 0.8520 and this bodes well for further gains in the near term. A nice technical target for this recovery would be the 0.8650 area and selling ahead of that level is recommended. Tomorrow we get NZ employment data while from the US this week we have manufacturing PMI, factory orders, the trade balance, weekly unemployment claims and productivity data.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
NZD/USD 0.8520 0.8450 0.8650 0.8463- 0.8557

Friday 1st Aug 1:50PM (NZT)
The New Zealand dollar has remained under pressure this week, and the pressure has been seen on two fronts. Firstly we had the news from Fonterra on Tuesday that their forecast pay-out of the 2014/15 season was NZ$6, which was the low end of expectations. This saw the local currency drop down below support at 0.8520 and that level has now capped the topside ever since. But the NZD has also been under pressure from a gradually improving USD as data continues to suggest the risks are skewed toward a tightening from the Fed earlier than expected. The Fed themselves are certainly not intimating that, but they could change their tune quickly over the coming months if the economy continues to improve. Tonight’s US employment data will be another piece in the puzzle and all indications are that it will be a strong number. With US long term interest rates starting to move higher, the stock market recently losing ground, and the USD showing signs of strength, it seems the markets are getting positioned for a more ‘hawkish’ Fed over the coming months. This could well be the start of some much broader trends.
The current interbank midrate is:    NZDUSD 0.8505

The interbank range this week has been:    NZDUSD 0.8464- 0.8586
Tuesday 29th July 1:30PM (NZT)
Last week was another tough one for the New Zealand dollar with negative sentiment seeing further losses. The RBNZ’s strong words about the value of the currency along with a pause in the tightening cycle weighed heavily on the NZD. The currency has failed to put in any real bounce having traded to a 0.8530 low so far. This week is all going to be about the USD and whether it can start to make some meaningful gains. There are three key releases that could drive the big dollar. US GDP on Wednesday night will be followed by the FOMC rate statement a few hours later, then on Friday we have non-farm payrolls data. The market will want to see a good bounce back in GDP from the horrendous first quarter which was adversely affected by poor weather. From the FOMC it would be pleasing to see the start of debate around when to lift rates and if that does occur it will help to support the USD. Friday’s employment numbers should show another very strong result, especially considering the recent fall in weekly jobless claims to the lowest level since 2006. It’s hard to imagine all three of these events will line up perfectly to support the USD, but if they do, it could well signal the start of what should be a period of long term USD appreciation. It seems likely we will need to see this USD strength to push the NZD down in the low 80’s from its current level around 0.8550. Initial support comes in at 0.8520 with a move below there opening the way to 0.8400.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
NZD/USD 0.8554 0.8520 0.8720 0.8530- 0.8707

Friday 25th July 4:0PM (NZT)
This week has been dominated by the price action seen in the wake of the RBNZ rate statement. After suffering a significant fall last week the currency went into that announcement around the 0.8700 level and immediately came under pressure on confirmation that along with hiking rates by 0.25%, the central bank will now take a ‘pause’ in the tightening cycle. The RBNZ were very firm in their description of an overvalued NZD, which only added to the downside. The New Zealand dollar quickly fell to 0.8600 and the pressure never relented. Last night the USD also gained some ground on the back of very good jobless claims numbers and this help the NZD trade down to its 0.8562 low. The topside is now protected by resistance at 0.8650, and I would expect to see plenty of sellers lining up to take advantage of any potential bounce toward that level. The risks are all still skewed to the downside with 0.8520 the target ahead of 0.8400. There is little in the way of data next week from NZ that could impact the current negative sentiment with only building consents set for release on Wednesday. From the US however, we get pending home sales, consumer confidence, manufacturing PMI, GDP and non-farm payrolls data. So far the majority of the NZD’s declines over the past two weeks have come on the back of NZD weakness, and this could easily take the currency toward 0.8400. However, a significant move below there is going to require some broad based USD strength, something we are yet to see.
The current interbank midrate is:    NZDUSD 0.8577

The interbank range this week has been:    NZDUSD 0.8562 - 0.8719
Tuesday 22th July 2:30PM (NZT)
The New Zealand dollar saw significant losses last week weighed on by falling dairy prices and softer than expected inflation. The currency broke down through some key support levels the most notable of which was 0.8720. That level now provides resistance on the topside and as such it has so far capped any potential bounce. The NZD has recovered back to there on three separate occasions and been rejected each time. This keeps the focus on the downside and another test of support at 0.8650. We may find those two levels contain trade heading into Thursday’s RBNZ rate meeting which provides the main focus for the week. The outcome of that meeting will likely dictate near term direction. Any sustained break below 0.8650 will open the way for move to 0.8520 ahead of 0.8400. US data will also bear watching this week with Wednesday’s inflation figure followed by existing home sales, new homes sales, and durable goods orders on Friday.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
NZD/USD 0.8684 0.8520 0.8720 0.8650 - 0.8816

Friday 18th July 4:0PM (NZT)
It has been a very interesting week for the New Zealand dollar, and one that could well have marked the top of recent strength in the currency. Another big decline in dairy prices triggered the initial move down through support around 0.8790, but this was quickly followed by softer than expected inflation data and the downside accelerated. These two releases certainly bring into question next weeks RBNZ tightening, and could well start to see forecasters reassess where the likely top of the current tightening cycle will be. The central bank will most likely still hike next week, but it’s far from a certainty and the outlook for the NZ economy, and interest rates, is not what it was just a few weeks ago. The NZD has seen some further pressure in the past 12 hours as some ‘risk off’ sentiment entered the market thanks to the downing of a Malaysian Airliner over the Ukraine. This pressured global stock markets and has seen the NZD trade to the weeks low of 0.8650. There is some support around this level, and we could get a corrective bounce from here, but resistance at 0.8720 should cap any near term strength and a much broader pullback could easily unfold over the coming weeks. Below 0.8650 targets 0.8520 and then 0.8400.
The current interbank midrate is:    NZDUSD .8676

The interbank range this week has been:    NZDUSD .8650 - .8822
Tuesday 15th July 1:05PM (NZT)
It has been a very quiet week for the New Zealand dollar which has traded a tight range above 0.8800 since breaking above there on Wednesday last week. The weeks high of 0.8831 is just shy of the post float high which comes in at 0.8842. The next few days could prove very interesting however, with a Global Dairy Trade Auction tonight, and inflation data tomorrow. The NZD has so far largely ignored a 30% decline in dairy prices, preferring to focus on the increasing interest rate differential between NZ and the rest of the world. But dairy prices matter, as they’re New Zealand’s biggest export, and sooner or later the currency will need to reflect that. Tomorrow’s inflation data could also be key, either reinforcing expectations for another hike by the RBNZ next week with a strong result, of perhaps making the central bank’s decision a lot more finely balanced should inflation print on the soft side. The USD also has a part to play in this pair and for the most part it has remained very subdued lately even in the face of improving data. This week we have some key numbers to focus on from the states with retail sales, producer prices, building permits and consumer sentiment along with testimony from Fed Chair Janet Yellen. Downside support around 0.8790 is the key area to watch. A move below there would likely signal a much broader pullback in the NZD is unfolding. Until we see that there is potential for further gains and even a move up through 0.8842.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
NZD/USD 0.8814 0.8650 0.8850 0.8740 - 0.8831

Friday 11th July 1:30PM (NZT)
It has been another strong week for the New Zealand dollar. Monday’s bounce off the 0.8714 low started a rally that has so far taken us very close to all time highs against the USD. The move has been as much about USD weakness as NZD strength, although the local currency did receive a boost from the news that ratings agency Fitch has upgraded NZ’s outlook. The USD however remains under pressure across the board despite some positive data over the past couple of weeks. Although I suspect we will put a top in place somewhere close to current levels over the coming days, the lack of any substantial or sustained pullback in the NZD suggests the market still wants to have a crack higher. Only a sustained move down through 0.8790 would signal the topside pressure has abated. Until then, a spike up through the post float high of 0.8840 remains a possibility.
The current interbank midrate is:    NZDUSD 0.8808

The interbank range this week has been:    NZDUSD 0.8714 - 0.8831
Tuesday 8th July 2:45PM (NZT)
The New Zealand dollar traded heavily in the latter part of last week weighed on by good employment figures from the US and a somewhat softer Australian dollar. The currency remained under pressure in the early stages of this week and traded down to 0.8714 around lunch time yesterday. Since then however we have seen a decent bounce which took the currency all the way back up to 0.8767 overnight. There was little in the way of news flow to justify the move and demand for the NZD has moderated this morning in the wake of the release of the Quarterly Survey of Business Opinion. Thursday’s NZ manufacturing index will be of mild interest with more importance put on the Fed meeting minutes set for release a few hours earlier. We also have a number of Fed speakers this week to watch out for. Expect the NZD to continue to find levels over 0.8770 tough to maintain with selling into strength recommended.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
NZD/USD 0.8765 0.8650 0.8850 0.8714 - 0.8790

Friday 4th July 12:30PM (NZT)
The New Zealand dollar has remained well support all week and seems comfortable trading around the 0.8760 level, at least for now. The relative buoyancy of the NZD is something of a surprise considering the Australian dollar has fallen 150 points from its highs against the USD this week. The NZD has largely shrugged off the further decline in dairy prices seen on Tuesday evening and the currency held in well even after last night’s much better than expected US non-farm payrolls data. We did get a quick dip down to the week’s low of 0.8719 in the wake of that US data, but buyers emerge to see the NZD quickly recover back above 0.8750. Over the past four weeks we have seen a strong move higher in the local currency and current levels should prove to offer good value buying of USD, in light of the decent data released this week from the States. That been said, in the very near term a squeeze back up toward 0.8780 can’t be ruled out, particularly given last night’s strong bounce from the weeks lows.
The current interbank midrate is:    NZDUSD 0.8748

The interbank range this week has been:    NZDUSD 0.8719 - 0.8792
Tuesday 1st July 2:15PM (NZT)
This pair has found itself consolidating gains above .8700 since Wednesday last week. However, the NZ dollar momentum has waned and this comes as further pressure was seen on the US dollar in the broader sense last night. Without doubt the US employment numbers represent the focus for the week and the result will likely dictate direction in the near term. Ahead of that number late Thursday, it seems likely that the .8720 - .8800 range will contain the price action. Overtime the current levels should prove to have offered good value buying of USD with NZ dollars, albeit the opportunity will be ongoing in the short term.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
NZD/USD .8765 .8650 .8850 .8663 - .8792

Friday 27th June 2:30PM (NZT)
In the absence of material NZ news this week, the USD story has dominated the lead for the most part. To that end the weak final GDP read and low durables good sales led to pressure on the USD. As global interest rates pushed lower, the yield chasing investors boosted the NZD. Stop loss buying has been evident at times, especially on the break up through .8750. Direction from here is less obvious, but consolidation through .8750 does open the way for ground towards to the record highs at .8843 to be forged. The favourable  interest rate differentials are likely to cushion the NZ dollar in any periods of softness in the short term at least.
The current interbank midrate is:    NZDUSD .8771

The interbank range this week has been:    NZDUSD .8663 - .8792
Tuesday 24th June 2:43PM (NZT)
This pair has remained contained by a relatively small range at elevated levels throughout the last week. After the sharp initial USD decline following the FED’s monetary policy announcement, trading has been moribund for the most part. Yesterday’s better Chinese manufacturing numbers did boost the NZD for a time, but the solid US numbers overnight saw the US rebound to take back that lost ground. .8750 remains the substantial resistance level on the topside, whilst initial support at .8700 remains the target for any NZD weakness. In the absence of NZ domestic economic news of note this week, the lead will predominantly come from developments in the US. Further range trading around current levels seems likely in the short term.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
NZD/USD .8713 .8550 .8750 .8643 - .8747

Friday 20th June 2:30PM (NZT) - Update
This week has seen the NZD again outperform the beleaguered US dollar. The range has been relatively contained, with the bulk of the volatility coming in the wake of the FED’s monetary policy statement on Thursday morning (NZT). The market was obviously looking for more positive sentiment from the FED, as following the announcement the USD was again under pressure and this pair shot straight through the resistance at .8700. The momentum was stalled by the release of the under expectation NZ GDP number hours later and the pair has consolidated in a small 30 point range in the sessions since. The .8700 level remains the near term support, with the resistance the lofty levels of .8750. Current levels offer great value buying of US dollars, albeit any material move lower from the NZD is far from certain in the near term.

The current interbank midrate is:    NZDUSD 0.8720

The interbank range this week has been:    NZDUSD 0.8643 - 0.8736
Tuesday 17th June 3:43PM (NZT)
There was one material move for this pair last week. Following the RBNZ MPS the NZD saw increased demand as the market discounted the chances of a pause in the hiking cycle. Since the subsequent couple of sessions the pair has consolidated at levels just below the major resistance at .8700 cents. Whilst in the vicinity it seems likely that there will be a further test of this level at some point. However, there will likely be further sideways trading ahead of the FED’s monetary policy meeting and NZ Q1 GDP release, both due on Thursday morning NZT. The outcome of these releases will provide the near term direction for this pair. Certainly the .8700 level has proved difficult to consolidate through before, and the easy ground has already been taken by the NZD.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
NZD/USD .8663 .8500 .8700 .8495 - .8701

Friday 13th June 2:00PM (NZT) - Update
After a relatively orderly start to the week, the NZ dollar saw grinding appreciation over the under pressure US dollar. Consolidation through the .8530 level opened the way for further appreciation and following yesterdays less “dovish” than expected monetary policy statement, the pair accelerated higher. The Iraq issues pressured the USD overnight and after reaching a high of .8701, the pair has consolidated at these elevated levels. Whilst further appreciation cannot be discounted, with the geo-political tensions increasing, further gains for the NZ dollar should be far harder fought from current levels. Current levels offer great value buying of US dollars.
The current interbank midrate is:    NZDUSD 0.8664

The interbank range this week has been:    NZDUSD 0.8484 - 0.8701

Tuesday 10th June 1:00PM (NZT)
The New Zealand dollar ended its recent decline late last week and put in a solid bounce off key support around 0.8410. That recovery saw the market rally up through 0.8520 resistance in the hours ahead of US employment data on Friday evening. But when the payrolls figures confirmed the expectations for a solid result above 200k, the USD gained support and this pushed the NZD back down just under 0.8500. A quiet start to this week has seen very little action of the past 30 hours or so, and the markets focus is now firmly on the RBNZ monetary policy statement set for release on Thursday morning. This event is likely to dictate NZD direction in the short and medium term. If the bank continues to signal rates are headed toward 4.50% or higher within the next 2 years, the currency could easily see levels over 0.8600 again. If the bank signals a pause after this hike and a slightly more moderate path of future hikes, the NZD could slowly drift a little lower. Also this week from the US we have retail sales, producer prices, and consumer sentiment to draw focus.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
NZD/USD 0.8500 0.8410 0.8600 0.8403 - 0.8554

Friday 6th June 2:30PM (NZT) - Update
The early part of this week saw the New Zealand dollar continue its recent decline all the way to support around 0.8410. That level was tested a number of times over a 24 hour period mid-week and the failure to break below there has resulted in a substantial bounce. This recovery was helped overnight by some USD weakness that washed through the market in the wake of the European Central Bank meeting. But the key topside resistance level of 0.8520 has not been breached and while this caps gains, the risks are the market will eventually turn back down. We do have the all-important US employment data out tonight and this could add some real volatility to the market. Expectations are for a gain in nonfarm payrolls of around 212k. Any result above there should see the USD gain ground and the NZD head back toward 0.8410. Next week we have the RBNZ monetary policy statement to draw focus and it could prove to be an very interesting meeting. From the US the highlights will be retail sales and consumer sentiment.
The current interbank midrate is:    NZDUSD 0.8493

The interbank range this week has been:    NZDUSD 0.8403 - 0.8516
Tuesday 3rd June 6:30PM (NZT)
The New Zealand dollar broke below key support at 0.8520 mid last week on the back of a drop in business confidence. The currency never managed to regain that level and as such the downside price action has continued. The broader themes of softening dairy prices and growth concerns in China have helped to drag the NZD down from levels above 0.8600 only a couple of weeks ago. These themes are likely to play out over the coming months and should help to limit any periods of further NZD strength. The immediate focus is on the next level of support around 0.8410. I suspect this will contain the downside for now and we may get a corrective bounce from somewhere near there over the coming days. But with 0.8520 now providing strong resistance I wouldn’t be expecting a recovery above there anytime soon. The New Zealand dollar is much more fairly priced around 0.8400 than it was around 0.8600, and it could easily head lower still if the USD finally starts to appreciate. To that extent from the US this week we have key data in the form of the trade balance, non-manufacturing PMI, and non-farm payrolls to draw focus.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
NZD/USD 0.8461 0.8410 0.8520 0.8441 - 0.8579

Friday 30th May 2:00PM (NZT) - Update
The New Zealand dollar was under pressure from the get go this week with the overhang of softer dairy prices and a slightly firmer USD keeping any strength limited to 0.8580. However, the real move came after business confidence data fell for the third time in a row, and the drop from 64.8 to 53.5 was substantial. In the hours that followed the NZD broke below key support at 0.8520 and it has never really looked back. Further selling came yesterday via the NZDAUD cross that also broke a key level and last night this pair traded down to 0.8452. We have seen a small bounce, but with the 0.8520 level now providing strong resistance, the risks are still skewed to the downside. Only a recovery above that level will take the pressure off. I would expect this downside move to extend over the coming week towards support at 0.8410. That level should contain the weakness initially, although the reaction there will be key. A break below there would open the way for a move towards 0.8200.
The current interbank midrate is:    NZDUSD 0.8488

The interbank range this week has been:    NZDUSD 0.8452 - 0.8579
Tuesday 27th May 2:30PM (NZT)
After losing ground in the early stages of last week the New Zealand dollar has remained very subdued and spent much of the past six days trading a tight range above 0.8530. A slightly firmer USD has helped keep recent topside action in the NZD limited to levels just over 0.8580. This is likely to continue to be the case with the overhang of weaker dairy prices keeping a ceiling on near term strength. However, there is major support around 0.8520 and it will take a sustained move below there to turn the broader picture negative. Until then we are likely in for further ranging between there and 0.8700,  a level which should provide a good selling opportunity during any period of strength. This week from the US we get durable goods orders, consumer confidence, GDP, and pending home sales data to digest. While from NZ we have business confidence and building consents figures.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
NZD/USD 0.8570 0.8520 0.8700 0.8528 - 0.8635

Thursday 22nd May 3:30PM (NZT) - Update
The New Zealand dollar has been under pressure this week with Monday’s stronger than expected producer prices data providing only temporary support. A further decline in dairy prices has combined with a soft Australian dollar to help the NZD lose significant ground. We have yet to test key support around 0.8520 with a low so far of 0.8538, but the move has been quite sharp and this would suggest we will eventually have a look at that support. Minor resistance around 0.8600 should contain any topside price action for now, with the risks still skewed to further weakness in the near term. A sustained move down through 0.8520 would warn a much bigger correction is unfolding.
The current interbank midrate is:    NZDUSD 0.8584

The interbank range this week has been:    NZDUSD 0.8538 - 0.8694
Tuesday 20th May 3:00PM (NZT)
It has been a very quiet week for the New Zealand dollar. The currency trade up to a high of 0.8694 on Thursday evening last week, but quickly reversed as US stocks showed some weakness. Since then we have traded a tight range between 0.8620 and 0.8650. Support toward 0.8600 has yet to be seriously tested and it will take a break below there to open the way for a broader pullback targeting 0.8520. While the pair remains above 0.8600 we could easily see it drift higher again up towards 0.8700 where sellers are likely to be lurking. On the data front this week from NZ there is only inflation expectations to draw focus, while from the US we have the Fed minutes, manufacturing PMI, existing home sales, and new home sales.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
NZD/USD 0.8620 0.8520 0.8700 0.8614 - 0.8694

Friday 16th May 2:00PM (NZT) - Update
It has been a relatively quiet week for this pair which spent most of the past 5 days slowly grinding higher on light flows. The gains came of the back of a stronger New Zealand dollar which touched 0.8694 early yesterday evening. However, we have seen a sharp reversal from there as weakness in global stock markets last night caused some risk aversion and profit taking. Minor support towards 0.8600 has yet to be tested and while above there a slight upside bias remains. A move down through 0.8600 however, will open the way for a broader pull back to the 0.8520 level. General US dollar weakness remains a theme and it is exasperated by the continued fall in long term US interest rates. The US 10 year bond traded down to 2.47% overnight. Until we see US yields start to move higher, something many expected months ago, the US dollar will likely remain subdued.
The current interbank midrate is:    NZDUSD 0.8644

The interbank range this week has been:    NZDUSD 0.8605 - 0.8694
Tuesday 13th May 2:00PM (NZT)
After pulling back significantly from recent highs in the middle of last week, trading in the New Zealand dollar has been rather subdued. Downside momentum has waned a touch with a low so far of just above 0.8600. The start of this week has been particularly quiet, although there is data coming up that could well trigger some action. Retail sales data from the US tonight is followed by the same data from New Zealand tomorrow morning. We also have the RBNZ financial stability report to digest tomorrow and the NZ budget on Thursday. Later in the week we will see data on US inflation, building permits, and consumer confidence. A move down through 0.8600 would open the way for a test of key support around 0.8520. On the topside, any move over 0.8700 should only prove short lived as has been the case recently.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
NZD/USD 0.8625 0.8520 0.8700 0.8605 - 0.8778

Friday 9th May 2:00PM (NZT) - Update
It has been a very interesting week for this pair with the New Zealand dollar looking like it might have made a medium term top at 0.8778 on Tuesday evening. That high was made during some broad based USD weakness that seemed to have no fundamental basis. The sharp move up from 0.8700 to 0.0.8778 and then back down has all the characteristics of a “blow off” top, and when RBNZ Governor Wheeler started talking about currency intervention on Wednesday morning, the NZD’s fate was sealed. Since then the local currency has been slowly grinding lower. There is a growing belief in the market that the RBNZ will pause its tightening cycle after the next hike in June. Deputy Governor Spencer has only reinforced this view in a speech released this morning. He stressed the timing and extent of rate rises depends on the level of the currency and the housing market. This should help to limit further NZD gains, although the interest rate differential will continue to support the currency on the downside. We could therefore be in for a period of ranging between the broad parameters of 0.8500 and 0.8700, at least until such a time as we see some broad based USD strength.
The current interbank midrate is:    NZDUSD 0.8630

The interbank range this week has been:    NZDUSD 0.8592 - 0.8778
Tuesday 6th May 2:00PM (NZT)
The New Zealand dollar continues to look comfortable trading between the broad parameters of 0.8500 and 0.8700. Having bounced off support around 0.8520 this time last week, the local currency has seen a relentless march higher. This rally has been all the more remarkable in the face of recent strong data from the US. Friday’s non-farm payrolls result and last night’s non-manufacturing PMI data were both supportive of the US economic outlook, but the FX market has so far failed to reflect this. It’s hard to pinpoint what is behind the lack of US dollar strength at the moment, and as such the near term picture is somewhat unclear. Fundamentally I would say selling NZD’s at current levels represents a good opportunity, but with recent price action going against all fundamentals a move up through 0.8700, and maybe even a test of the recent 0.8746 high, can’t be ruled out. Tomorrow’s NZ employment data provides the primary focus.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
NZD/USD 0.8690 0.8520 0.8700 0.8518 - 0.8690

Friday 2nd May 3:00PM (NZT) - Update
The New Zealand dollar was under pressure from the USD in the early part of the week trading down to support around 0.8520. That support was never seriously tested however, as the local currency quickly bounced back toward 0.8560. The recovery continued after very soft US GDP data saw broad USD weakness. The NZD was one of the bigger gainers in the wake of that data jumping back above 0.8600. In the last 24 hours further tests of the topside have ensued with the NZD remaining well supported. Minor resistance around 0.8640 has so far capped it, and that is likely to continue heading into tonight’s key US employment data. That result will decide near term direction for the pair. Next week we have NZ employment data to draw focus, while from the US we get non-manufacturing PMI, the trade balance, and a testimony from Fed Chair Yellen.
The current interbank midrate is:    NZDUSD 0.8620

The interbank range this week has been:    NZDUSD 0.8518 - 0.8639
Tuesday 29th April 3:30PM (NZT)
The past week has seen a gradual weakening of the New Zealand dollar down towards initial support around 0.8520. In the wake of last week’s RBNZ rate hike, the currency initially spiked up to 0.8635, but as the market digested the statement, and in particular the reference to a strong currency potentially affecting future hikes, the buying dried up and the currency quickly fell back below 0.8600. Since then we, have also seen mostly positive data from the US that has seen demand for USD’s increase, which has put further downside pressure on the NZD. The question now is how much further, if at all, will it fall? If we get a sustained move down through the 0.8500/20 area it would open the way for a pullback to major support at 0.8410. However, since the beginning of February the NZD has been a strong performer and betting against it a very poor option. We could easily see support around 0.8500/20 hold and a bounce back to 0.8600. NZ data over the rest of the week should have only limited impact on the currency, however from the US we have GDP, the FOMC rate statement, manufacturing PMI, and non-farm payrolls to digest, all of which could influence.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
NZD/USD 0.8530 0.8520 0.8720 0.8526 - 0.8635

Wednesday 23rd April 4:30PM (NZT) - Update
The gradual decline seen in the New Zealand dollar over the past two weeks may have run its course for now. The low of 0.8556 traded early yesterday morning and since then the currency has drifted higher touching 0.8620 last night. To be fair there isn’t a lot of momentum either way at the moment, but as we head into tomorrow’s expected RBNZ rate hike there is a lack of interest to sell the NZD. The tone of the RBNZ statement and how much importance they put on recent soft inflation data will be key in determining near term direction for the currency. US data, which has for the most part been better than expected recently, has had little impact on the value of the USD. That could change with tonight’s manufacturing PMI however, if we get a very strong number.
The current interbank midrate is:    NZDUSD 0.8600

The interbank range this week has been:    NZDUSD 0.8556 - 0.8646
Thursday 17th April 3:30PM (NZT) - Update
For much of the past week we have seen a slow grind lower in the New Zealand dollar from the recent highs set at 0.8744. Two factors have weighed on the currency which traded to a low of 0.8579 yesterday. The first was another fall in dairy prices, the fifth consecutive such decline. The second was yesterday’s inflation data that was well below expectation. This has raised some doubts about the pace of future interest rate hikes from the RBNZ and as such the currency has come under a little pressure. In true resilient New Zealand dollar style however, the currency put a decent bounce overnight and now trades only 20 points below where it was before the inflation data was released! The risks are still skewed toward further weakness and we could easily see a pullback in the NZD to support around 0.8510. Any move above 0.8650 however, would bring this view into question. Next week’s RBNZ decision will be a big focus. While from the US we get existing and new home sales data, manufacturing PMI, and durable goods orders.
The current interbank midrate is:    NZDUSD 0.8635

The interbank range this week has been:    NZDUSD 0.8579 - 0.8744
Tuesday 15th April 2:30PM (NZT)
Although we have seen little overall direction in the past week, the New Zealand dollar continues to maintain somewhat elevated levels against the USD. What we have seen is choppy trade mostly contained between 0.8640 and 0.8740. The USD itself seems unable to find support from the raft of better than expected data seen recently, while any periods of weakness in the NZD are quickly reversed. One such bout of NZD weakness came last Thursday night as US equity markets started to look shaky. But those losses were reversed on Friday evening, even though equities lost further ground, and US data beat expectations. It’s easy to sight NZ fundamentals, such as the increasing interest rate differential or relative economic performance, as a reason for NZD strength. But a good part of the currencies current level is down to broad based USD weakness which is a lot harder to explain and seems to run against current US fundamentals. The Fed is well into tapering of QE and looks unlikely to change course, US economic data seems to be recovering from the previous weather affected results, and an interest rate hike in the first half of next year is a very real probability. For now however the USD seems to have few friends. I still feel selling toward 0.8700, or above, represents good value over the medium to long term.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
NZD/USD 0.8668 0.8550 0.8750 0.8604 - 0.8744

Friday 11th April 3:30PM (NZT) - Update
Solid data on business confidence and manufacturing helped to underpin gains in the currency this week, although the main driver was broad based USD weakness. A combination of the above helped drive this pair to 0.8744 yesterday, its highest level since 2011.  However, It does now finally look like the rally has run out of steam. Momentum indicators are waning and the NZD has already lost 100 points from that high, to currently trade around 0.8640. There was further nervousness in equity markets last night as the S&P 500 dropped below a key support level, and this saw a reduction in risk trades which also weighed on the NZD to a degree. Inflation data from NZ next week will be a focus, as will US retail sales, inflation, building permits, and industrial production.
The current interbank midrate is:    NZDUSD 0.8642

The interbank range this week has been:    NZDUSD 0.8531 - 0.8744
Tuesday 8th April 1:30PM (NZT)
The correction lower in the New Zealand dollar last week, triggered by a drop in dairy prices, saw the currency fall from 0.8697 down to a low of 0.8516. It was then up to US employment data to dictate where the NZD went from there. Friday’s release of non-farm payrolls data was eagerly anticipated with the market looking for a healthy number of at least +200k. The actual result of 192k wasn’t far off expectation, especially when you add in the positive revisions to previous results, but the market was disappointed and the USD came under pressure as a result. US yields also fell and this help higher yielding currencies, such as the NZD and AUD, outperform others in the aftermath. A range of 0.8500 to 0.8700 looks likely to contain the currency in the near term.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
NZD/USD 0.8615 0.8500 0.8700 0.8516 - 0.8697

Friday 4th April 1:30PM (NZT) - Update
This time last week the New Zealand dollar was testing recent highs around 0.8700 after rallying strongly during most of March. Since then however, we have seen a decent pullback which was triggered by news of an 8% decline in prices received at Fonterra’s Global Dairy Trade Auction. If that news had come out the previous week the impact in the market would have been significantly less, but with the NZD at very elevated levels, and looking like it had run out of upside momentum, there were few willing buyers. The result was a 150 point decline in the currency which came even as US data has mostly disappointed over the course of the week. The key figure from the US however is still to come and that is the non-farm payrolls data due out later this evening. The market is looking for a solid number of around +200k and any result above that will likely see the NZD lose further ground. We could easily see the currency trading back towards 0.8400 next week should the US employment picture show solid improvement.
The current interbank midrate is:    NZDUSD 0.8553

The interbank range this week has been:    NZDUSD 0.8516 - 0.8697
Tuesday 1st April 1:30PM (NZT)
The past week has seen solid gains for the New Zealand dollar helped by a broadly weaker USD and gains in commodities. The sharpest rise came late last week as stop loss orders drove the currency up towards 0.8700. That level has capped the topside so far, although with the USD again under pressure in the last 12 hours the NZD looks like it might have another look at 0.8700 in the very near term. This most recent USD weakness has come on the back of some ‘dovish’ comments from Fed chair Yellen overnight, and a soft reading from the Chicago PMI. The economic calendar for New Zealand is looking very light this week, however there are a number of key US release scheduled. These start with tonight with manufacturing PMI and are followed on Thursday by the trade balance and non-manufacturing PMI, and then on Friday by non-farm employment change. This data will dictate the level of the NZD over the rest of the week.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
NZD/USD 0.8675 0.8500 0.8700 0.8533 - 0.8697

Friday 28th March 12:30PM (NZT) - Update
The New Zealand dollar has been on a very strong bull run this week. We have seen relentless gains taking the currency from just above 0.8500 to a high of 0.8686 last night. The honest truth is it’s hard to point the finger at any particular driver. Broad weakness in the USD has certainly been a factor, which in itself is a little puzzling as there have been some bright spots in the mixed bag of data from the United States this week. Another driver has been a very strong Australian dollar. In fact up until yesterday afternoon it looked very much like the AUD was the main cause of NZD strength, dragging its smaller cousin higher as it powered on. But late yesterday afternoon NZD strength took on a life of its own and currency has outperformed all others in the last 24 hours. It seems this most recent move was driven by natural flows and stop loss buying. The all-time high in the NZD at 0.8842, set back in 2011, is now in sight. It’s tough to say whether the currency will get there or not, but surely current levels must offer great value buying of USD over the long run.
The current interbank midrate is:    NZDUSD 0.8669

The interbank range this week has been:    NZDUSD 0.8516 - 0.8686
Tuesday 25th March 2:00PM (NZT)
The reality is that apart from a period mid last week when the NZD rallied toward 0.8640 and then sold off again, the currency has remained largely unchanged for much of the past two weeks. It seems the New Zealand dollar is very comfortable trading around the 0.8530/40 level where it has gravitated back to ever since it moved higher on the 13th March. The only data from NZ this week is the trade balance on Thursday, so focus will remain for the most part on offshore drivers. To that extent from the US we get durable goods orders tomorrow and later in the week we get pending home sales, final GDP, and personal spending data. Any break below 0.8500 would be a negative signal and likely precede a deeper correction towards support just above 0.8400. On the topside we can continue to expect moves above 0.8600 to prove temporary in nature for the time being.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
NZD/USD 0.8553 0.8400 0.8600 0.8502 - 0.8639

Friday 21st March 2:00PM (NZT) - Update
The New Zealand dollar was a strong performer for much of this week. That all changed on Thursday morning however after the release of the Fed rate statement. The currency went into that announcement trading over 0.8600 buoyed by improving risk sentiment and news that the NZD will now be directly convertible into CNY. But Janet Yellen’s inference that rate hikes could start in the second quarter of next year saw the USD appreciate sharply. The NZD quickly lost over one cent to the USD trading down to 0.8520 and below. We have failed to see much in the way of a recovery so far and this leaves the focus on the downside. The sharp rejection from levels over 0.8600 has also left the charts looking like a ‘top’ has been put in place, at least for the time being. A move back through 0.8500 would confirm this and swing the focus to a test of support just above 0.8400. Next week from NZ there is only the trade balance to digest, while from the US there is plenty of data to draw focus. The highlights will be manufacturing PMI, consumer confidence, durable goods orders, GDP, and pending home sales.
The current interbank midrate is:    NZDUSD 0.8532

The interbank range this week has been:    NZDUSD 0.8502 - 0.8639
Tuesday 18th March 3:30PM (NZT)
The New Zealand dollar surged higher on Thursday last week, helped by the RBNZ rate announcement and then a surprisingly strong result from Australian employment. The currency briefly traded over 0.8600, however this was short lived as a wave of profit taking ensued triggered by reports of shots fired in the Ukraine and weakness in European stocks. These two events saw an increase in risk aversion and quickly pushed the pair back down towards 0.8520. With the Ukraine referendum out of the way peacefully, and the realisation that the only action the west is likely to take comes in the form of sanctions, we have seen risk trades back in favour this week. This has helped the NZD regain some ground and it now trades around 0.8560. I still believe levels over 0.8600 are a step too far for the currency at this point and favour selling into strength. 0.8400 to 0.8600 seems like a likely range for the coming week. Thursday’s NZ GDP data will draw focus, as will the Federal Reserve meeting in the US.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
NZD/USD 0.8562 0.8400 0.8600 0.8440 - 0.8605

Thursday 13th March 1:00PM (NZT) - Update
For much of the past week the New Zealand dollar has shown little overall direction against the USD. After retreating from 0.8523 last Friday in the wake of better than expected US employment data, the currency seemed happy to trade sideways around 0.8470. That was also the exact level trading as we headed into the RBNZ rate announcement this morning. In the seconds following the release the NZD dipped down to 0.8440, but as the market digested the statement and subsequent press conference, the currency recovered. This was driven by a slightly more ‘hawkish’ tone from the central bank. Their projected path of interest rates going forward is a little higher than the market was expecting and this has lent the currency some support. As a result the NZD has now climbed back up to the 0.8520 area. Any further strength should run into resistance around the October 2013 high of 0.8543. On a long term time frame you would expect current levels to provide a good opportunity of NZ dollars.
The current interbank midrate is:    NZDUSD 0.8520

The interbank range this week has been:    NZDUSD 0.8404 - 0.8524
Tuesday 11th March 3:00PM (NZT)
For much of last week the New Zealand dollar made steady gains against the USD. The driving forces came from a decrease in tensions in the Ukraine and softer data from the US. But gains accelerated on Thursday as the NZD was dragged higher by a surging AUD after some solid retail sales and trade data. The NZD rallied up over 0.8500 heading into Friday evenings US employment data which was expected to come in on the soft side. The actual result surprised with a stronger reading, and there was a quick reversal from those highs as the USD regained some ground. Since then trading has been subdued around the 0.8460 level. This week’s RBNZ rate decision provides the major focus and with a 25 point hike fully factored in, the risk is there for a ‘buy the rumour, sell the fact’ scenario where the currency falls after the expected announcement. Further gains from here will certainly prove much tougher to come by and would provide a good selling opportunity in the long run.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
NZD/USD 0.8471 0.8350 0.8550 0.8353 - 0.8523

Thursday 6th March 8:30PM (NZT) - Update
The New Zealand dollar has spent much of the week grinding higher against the USD and is now back up near resistance around 0.8430. There has been a lack of key economic releases from NZ, while US data has for the most part come in on the soft side over the last few days. This has helped support the pair and should continue to do so heading into Friday night’s non-farm payrolls report. Another disappointing result here could see the NZD trade back towards 0.8500, a level last seen back in mid-October. The impending rate hike by the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) is also looming large and should continue to see any dips in the currency well supported.
The current interbank midrate is:    NZDUSD 0.8429

The interbank range this week has been:    NZDUSD 0.8344 - 0.8434
Tuesday 4th March 2:00PM (NZT)
A trifecta of positive data late last week saw the New Zealand dollar put in a strong performance. Fonterra’s news they are increasing their forecasted payout combined with good trade balance and migration data to see the NZD briefly trade up over 0.8400. The currency ran into plenty of sellers up there however, and when tensions in the Ukraine heightened over the weekend we saw some further selling in the early stages of this week. This ‘risk off’ move pushed the NZD down to minor support at 0.8345 which has contained the weakness for the time being. A lot of attention is still on the events unfolding in Eastern Europe and any escalation in the situation would likely see further safe haven flows which would push the currency lower again. Recent improvements in US data are also likely to have increased the offers above 0.8400 and that level is likely to continue to cap the topside in the near term. We still have some key data to come from the US this week, with non-manufacturing PMI, the trade balance, and non-farm payrolls all set for release over the coming days.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
NZD/USD 0.8362 0.8200 0.8400 0.8282 - 0.8425
 
Friday 28th February 3:00PM (NZT) - Update
The New Zealand dollar has been a clear outperformer this week against many other currencies. Patchy data from the United States has seen the USD struggle to gain any real traction, while from NZ the news has been overwhelmingly positive. Fonterra’s announcement that it has raised its forecast payout to farmers has combined with supportive migration and trade balance data to see the NZD rally up towards resistance around 0.8400. The expectation of a rate hike from the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) in a little under two weeks is also lending support. However, there is plenty of resistance between 0.8400 and 0.8440 and this will prove a tough barrier in the near term. There isn’t much in the way of data from NZ next week so the focus will turn to offshore releases. To that extent from the US we have manufacturing and non-manufacturing PMI, the Fed's Beige book, trade balance, and non-farm payrolls data.
The current interbank midrate is:    NZDUSD 0.8389

The interbank range this week has been:    NZDUSD 0.8260 - 0.8391
Tuesday 25th February 3:00PM (NZT)
The NZD remains trapped between support around 0.8200 and resistance towards 0.8400. Those two level contained the price action over the past week and look set to do the same over the coming week. The NZD traded to the lower end of its range mid last week after poor Chinese manufacturing data, but since then we have seen a decent recovery back above 0.8300. Poor services PMI data from the US last night helped the upside extend to 0.8340 where is seems to have run out of steam for the time being. It’s hard to see any local data this week providing the spark to break the current range with inflation expectations, the trade balance, and business confidence being the highlights. From the US we have consumer confidence, new home sales, durable goods orders, and preliminary GDP, which will all be closely watched to see if it continues to be ‘weather affected’.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
NZD/USD 0.8340 0.8200 0.8400 0.8243 - 0.8380

Friday 21st February 1:30PM (NZT) - Update
The New Zealand dollar started the week just below resistance near the top of its broad 0.8200 - 0.8400 range. Without any key fundamental drivers to push it higher this left the downside the path of least resistance and as such the currency drifted lower. There were periods of strength on the back of continued soft US data, but this wasn’t enough to change overall direction. The week’s low of 0.8243 traded in the wake of yesterday’s poor reading on Chinese manufacturing which weighed heavily on both the New Zealand and Australian dollars against the US dollar. Since then the currency has managed to put in a substantial correction higher and now trades back up over 0.8300. This price action only serves to reinforce the current expectation that the 0.8200 - 0.8400 range will continue to dominate in the near term.
The current interbank midrate is:    NZDUSD 0.8305

The interbank range this week has been:    NZDUSD 0.8243 - 0.8392
Tuesday 18th February 3:00PM (NZT)
The recent spate of softer than expected US data has helped the New Zealand dollar appreciate towards the 0.8400 level. However, there is strong resistance just above 0.8400 with the market having peaked between 0.8406 and 0.8435 on four occasions since September last year. I would be surprised to see gains through those levels without the market doing a lot of work first. In all likelihood we could well see another short term top put in place around 0.8400 and then a pullback towards 0.8200. Yesterday’s weaker than expected NZ retails sales data certainly supports this view. With only producer prices data set for release from NZ over the coming days, the market focus will turn to offshore events / data. To that extent from the US this week we have building permits, producer prices, the FOMC minutes, inflation, and manufacturing PMI all set for release.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
NZD/USD 0.8358 0.8200 0.8400 0.8263 - 0.8392

Friday 14th February 1:30PM (NZT) - Update
It has been a mostly positive week for the New Zealand dollar with the currency gaining around one cent against the USD. The NZD was helped higher on Tuesday by the Australian dollar that made gains after solid their business confidence data. The upside momentum continued into Wednesday evening when a high of 0.0.8367 traded in the lead up to Fed Chair Janet Yellen's testimony. Her ‘steady as we go’ approach saw the USD regain some ground, but last night’s weak retail sales data has undone most of that good work with the pair trading back towards the highs. We could easily see an attempt toward key resistance between 0.8400 and 0.8420, however I suspect this will cap the topside for now, as it has done for much of the past four months. Selling into this level is recommended.
The current interbank midrate is:    NZDUSD 0.8348

The interbank range this week has been:    NZDUSD 0.8257 - 0.8367
Tuesday 11th February 3:00PM (NZT)
It has been a positive week for the New Zealand dollar with periods of increased demand seen in the wake of better NZ employment data, and then again after a disappointing US jobs figures. The pair has rallied to test the 0.8300 level, although that has contained the topside price action for now. We could see further upside tests, however with resistance around 0.8350 and then again around 0.8400 selling into any further gains is recommended. Apart from a few days in October last year, the NZD has broadly ranged between 0.8100 and 0.8400 for much of the past five months, and this is likely to continue in the near term.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
NZD/USD 0.8290 0.8150 0.8350 0.8135 - 0.8297

Friday 7th February 3:30PM (NZT) - Update
The New Zealand dollar has had a positive week which has helped it to recover all the ground recently lost after the RBNZ ‘no change’ announcement. A noticeable decrease in emerging market fears has helped the currency, as has the sold employment data released on Wednesday. A stronger Australian dollar in the wake of their central banks very neutral statement has also supported the NZD which as recently traded to a 0.8281 high for the week. Further gains from here will largely depend on key US employment data set for release tonight. Although the market is expecting a good number anything in excess of 200k will no doubt see support for the USD increase and this should pressure the NZD back towards 0.8200.
The current interbank midrate is:    NZDUSD 0.8226

The interbank range this week has been:    NZDUSD 0.8052 - 0.8281
Tuesday 4th February 3:00PM (NZT)
The New Zealand dollar lost substantial ground to the USD last week in the wake of the no change announcement from the RBNZ. Decent US GDP data and wider market risk aversion also weighed on the currency which eventually saw it trade to a low of 0.8063 on Friday evening. We have seen an anaemic recovery off that low that peaked just below 0.8140 last night in the wake of surprisingly soft US manufacturing data. Currently the market sits back below 0.8100 and at this leaves it looking vulnerable. The fact remains however that the RBNZ is almost certainly going to start a tightening cycle in March that will see rates increase by 2.0% - 2.5% over the next two years. This would suggest underlying demand for the NZD will return which should limit further downside. NZ employment data tomorrow and US employment data on Friday could however be key in determining near term direction.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
NZD/USD 0.8065 0.8000 0.8200 0.8053 - 0.8304

Friday 31st January 3:48PM (NZT) - Update
It has been an interesting week for this pair. After seeing some intense selling pressure  last week, the pair consolidated above the .8200 support and ground its was higher as the RBNZ monetary policy meeting approached. It appears that the possibility of a hike of the cash rate insulated the NZD from the wider market risk aversion until the unchanged monetary policy decision was announced. Subsequently, this coupled with the expected Fed taper, solid US GDP numbers and wider market risk aversion  to place the NZD under some pressure over the last couple of sessions. The pair initially bounced off the support at .8200, but once it broke through, stop loss selling pushed down to support close to .8120. This support around the .8100/20 level remains the key in the short term. If the New Zealand dollar continues to consolidate above that level, it seems likely the prospect of a March hike to the NZ cash rate will see a return in demand for the NZD. Initial resistance comes in at .8200, before the more substantial level around .8300.

The current interbank midrate is:    NZDUSD 0.8257

The interbank range this week has been:    NZDUSD 0.8126 - 0.8304
Tuesday 28th January 4:30PM (NZT)
In the wake of slightly stronger than expected NZ inflation data last Tuesday, the New Zealand dollar received a decent boost trading up towards 0.8340. Since then however the currency has succumbed to concerns around emerging markets which have led to a reduced appetite for risk assets. This has seen the NZD drift lower and test support around 0.8200 at the end of last week. Some stabilisation in the past 24 hours in emerging markets has helped to halt the NZD’s slide and the focus now shifts to the RBNZ rate statement on Thursday. This is the key event for the week domestically. If the RBNZ pull the tightening trigger early, i.e. this week, the currency will certainly react positively. An hour before the RBNZ statement (due out at 9am NZT on Thursday), we get the result of the Fed meeting in the United States. The markets are expecting another $10 bln reduction in the quantitative easing programme. Also out this week from the US we have data on new home sales, durable goods, consumer confidence and GDP to digest.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
NZD/USD 0.8266 0.8200 0.8400 0.8198 - 0.8345

Friday 24th January 2:00PM (NZT) - Update
The New Zealand dollar got a boost on Tuesday from stronger than expected inflation data. But the failure to kick on above 0.8340 has seen the currency give back much of the gains and some choppy price action around 0.8300 has ensued. Weaker Chinese manufacturing data weigh on the NZD to a degree yesterday and overnight we have seen heightened fears around some emerging markets. This caused some ‘risk off’ selling of the NZD. These negative influences are competing with the expectation / risk of a rate hike next week from the RBNZ, and as a result price action is somewhat range bound. This is likely to remain the case as we head into Thursday’s RBNZ rate statement which provides the main domestic focus. We also have the Fed meeting next week which should hold few surprises along with data on durable goods orders, new home sales, GDP, and consumer confidence.
The current interbank midrate is:    NZDUSD 0.8275

The interbank range this week has been:    NZDUSD 0.8214 - 0.8445
Tuesday 21st January 3:00PM (NZT)
The New Zealand Dollar performed very strongly in the early stages of last week helped by solid NZ business confidence data. But levels over 0.8400 were a step too far for the currency and as the week progressed the NZD drifted lower. The turnaround was aided by the solid retail sales numbers out of the US that helped support the USD and saw it regain much of the ground lost after the previous weeks poor employment numbers. Support towards 0.8200 was never really tested however, and in the last few hours the release of NZ inflation data has given the local currency another boost. The slightly stronger than expected result saw the currency leap a good half cent against the USD. At this point it seems likely we will continue to range broadly between 0.8200 and 0.8400 heading into next week’s RBNZ official cash rate review. The risks to that scenario are probably to the topside although I continue to feel the currency will struggle to maintain levels over 0.8400 in the near term.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
NZD/USD 0.8330 0.8200 0.8400 0.8214 - 0.8428

Friday 17th January 2:00PM (NZT) - Update
The New Zealand dollar has been a strong performer this week. Gains against the USD on Monday and Tuesday followed on from the sharp leap higher after last Friday's poor US employment numbers. A very strong NZ business confidence survey help the pair briefly trade up over 0.8400, but the USD staged a bit of a comeback after their solid retail sales figures. The NZD continued to drift off through the middle of the week and was dragged down towards 0.8300 yesterday on the back of the Australian dollar that got smashed in the wake of their poor employment data. The NZD is extremely resilient at the moment though, and overnight we have seen a solid bounce to take the pair back to 0.8350. Expectations for a rate hike when the RBNZ meet at the end of the month have been pared back a little, with the market now pricing in around a 30% chance, but that doesn't seem to have bothered the currency which now looks to have good support around the 0.8300 level. Next week we get inflation data and the business NZ manufacturing index. While from the US the focus will be on manufacturing PMI, existing home sales, and weekly jobless claims.
The current interbank midrate is:    NZDUSD 0.8348

The interbank range this week has been:    NZDUSD 0.8283 - 0.8428
Tuesday 14th January 3:30PM (NZT)
Price action this week has been dominated by one event. The US employment numbers on Friday. With expectations for a strong result the USD was gradually strengthening heading into the release and this saw the New Zealand dollar trade to the week’s low of 0.8207. But when the actual number missed expectation by a long shot, the market reacted quickly. The NZD snapped higher and has maintained a buoyant tone since. Last night when stop loss buy orders above 0.8330 were triggered the pair leapt higher again and a test of resistance just above 0.8400 looks to be on the cards. I suspect that will cap the strength ahead of tonight's US retail sales number, which will prove very interesting. Another shock result here could see the NZD up through 0.8415, which would then shift the focus to the Oct 22nd high of 0.8540. On the other hand, if December retail sales figures confirm a  healthy spend then we may well be very close to the top of this entire move.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
NZD/USD 0.8360 0.8330 0.8540 0.8207 - 0.8389

Friday 10th January 3:00PM (NZT) - Update
It has been a very quiet week for the New Zealand dollar with little in the way of overall direction against the USD. Much of the week was spent trading a tight range between 0.8255 and 0.8300. In the last 24 hours we have finally seen a break out of that range with the downside giving way as the pair drifted lower to 0.8232. But there has been little follow through selling so far and momentum is severely lacking. It is likely we will continue to see quiet trading heading into tonight's key US employment data. The risk for the par seems skewed to the down side and further gradual losses are likely, but tonight’s data could always throw a curveball. The market is expecting a solid gain in US employment of around 200k. If the result comes in at or above expectation the USD should continue to appreciate. A soft number however, would catch the market by surprise and the NZD could quickly be back above 0.8300. From NZ next week we have the NZIER business confidence survey and the house price index set for release. While from the US we have retail sales, inflation, building permits, and consumer sentiment to draw focus.
The current interbank midrate is:    NZDUSD 0.8244

The interbank range this week has been:    NZDUSD 0.8232 - 0.8318
Tuesday 7th January 2:30PM (NZT)
With little in the way of economic data out of New Zealand over the holiday period, the market was driven by flows to and from the USD. A gradually appreciating USD in late December saw the NZD trade down to 0.8118, before the pair put in a small recovery up to the 0.8240 level. The pair then turned down again touching 0.8140 late last week, but as the USD failed to make further gains on the back of solid manufacturing data, the market quickly turned around and a classic ‘short squeeze’ sent the NZD sharply higher. This move was exaggerated by the thin market liquidity of the holiday period and the pair has so far managed to hold onto most of the gains. There is little to draw the markets attention this week from NZ, however the same cannot be said for the US. On Thursday we get the minutes from the last Fed meeting and then on Friday it’s the all-important employment report. These two releases could well determine near term direction. There is resistance on the topside around 0.8330 and this should provide a decent barrier barring any real surprises. The downside looks the more vulnerable at this point although the market seems in no hurry to test it.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
NZD/USD 0.8273 0.8130 0.8330 0.8139 - 0.8315

Friday 20th December 1:30PM (NZT) - Update
The New Zealand dollar spent the early part of the week drifting sideways around 0.8270 against the USD. The markets focus was firmly on Thursday mornings Fed announcement and the NZD eventually started to weaken a little in the hours leading up to the release. When the Fed announced it would be tapering asset purchases to the tune of $10 bln in January there was some volatile price action. But once the market settled down the USD started to gradually strengthen across the board. We then got the very strong NZ GDP data and although this gave the local currency a boost, it was short lived as the broader USD trend dominated. There is support for the NZD around the 0.8100 level and it seems likely this could be tested in the coming days. Market reaction at that level will be key in determining direction further out. Although the tapering announcement should be the start of a broad trend toward USD strength, the NZD is being supported by the expectation of rate hikes starting next year. The NZ market is now pricing in a 50% chance of the first rate hike in January whereas previously a start date of March was universally expected.
The current interbank midrate is:    NZDUSD 0.8190

The interbank range this week has been:    NZDUSD 0.8152 - 0.8288
Tuesday 17th December 2:00PM (NZT)
There has been little overall direction for the New Zealand dollar this week. The currency has remained well support on most crosses, buoyed by solid data and last week’s RBNZ monetary policy statement. Trading against the USD has for the most part been contained between 0.8200 and 0.8320. We will likely see a continuation of this heading into the all-important Fed announcement on Thursday morning our time. This event will dictate direction for the currency in both the near and medium term. The market is very divided on what to expect from the Fed, and this will likely mean a decent reaction either way. From New Zealand this week we also get business confidence and GDP, but to be honest, any results there are going to be completely drowned out by the Fed decision.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
NZD/USD 0.8280 0.8130 0.8330 0.8189 - 0.8334

Friday 13th December 2:30PM (NZT) - Update
The New Zealand dollar started the week holding onto the gains seen after last Friday nights ‘short squeeze’ that saw the USD weaker across the board. But levels above 0.8300 just feel a step too high for the currency at the moment and as the USD found renewed buying mid-week, the NZD began to soften. The USD was certainly buoyed by news that a cross party deal had been reached to fund the government for the next two years as this increases the likelihood of the Fed tapering at their meeting next week. Yesterday we had the RBNZ monetary policy statement and their slightly higher projected path for interest rates, combined with a general lack of trying to ‘talk the currency down’, caused a material increase in demand for the NZD. The currency rallied all the way back up over 0.8300, only to be punished back down in the overnight session on further broad USD strength. My inclination is that the USD will continue to perform strongly heading into Fed meeting next week. However, direction after that is a lottery, as it will all come down to whether the Fed taper or not. That is still a very close call.
The current interbank midrate is:    NZDUSD 0.8237

The interbank range this week has been:    NZDUSD 0.8201 - 0.8334
Tuesday 10th December 2:00PM (NZT)
The New Zealand dollar spent most of last week trading around the 0.8200 level against the USD. The real action on the week was saved for Friday evening after the release of the US employment report. The weeks low and high were traded in the space of a few hours after what can only be described as a brutally quick reversal and squeeze higher in the 30 minutes directly after the release. It seems the market was positioned for a strong number and when it hit the wires the reaction is as you would have expected. The NZD was quickly under pressure from a strong USD and the low of 0.8140 traded. But the bounce from that low took on a life of its own and a classic “short squeeze” developed helped by weaker readings on personal income and the personal consumption expenditure index. The NZD rallied back up through 0.8200 and nearly made it to 0.8300 before stabilizing. Early yesterday the upside continued with the pair traded up to 0.8320 before drifting back a touch. The majority of economists and commentators are all now suggesting there is a very real chance the US Fed could start tapering asset purchases in December. However, price action in the USD does not seem to suggest this. We are likely in for more volatility over the coming weeks. The focus now turns to the RBNZ monetary policy statement on Thursday. Some commentators are suggesting the RBNZ could sight the high level of the NZD as a reason to potentially push back the start of the tightening cycle, and today’s changes to the LVR status for new houses further adds to that theory. At this point the market has price the first tightening in around March next year.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
NZD/USD 0.8275 0.8200 0.8400 0.8140 - 0.8320

Friday 6th December 3:00PM (NZT) - Update
Continued strong data from New Zealand has helped the local currency recovery from the previous weeks lows. Mondays terms of trade data boosted the currency early in the week and the NZD has maintained a firm footing since then. Although there has been little overall direction with the currency trading around 0.8200 for much of the week, dips toward 0.8150 have quickly found buyers. This is the first level of downside support and has never really been troubled over the last five days. However, near term direction is going to come from broad moves in the USD, and tonight's employment report from the US will likely set the tone for that heading into next week. The risks are building for a strong number and this could see the market increase expectations for tapering by the Fed in the next month or two. This would be USD positive and will see the NZD testing that support at 0.8150. The focus domestically next week will be on the RBNZ monetary policy statement, while from the US we have retail sales and producer prices data to digest.
The current interbank midrate is:    NZDUSD 0.8214

The interbank range this week has been:    NZDUSD 0.8153 - 0.8260
Tuesday 3rd December 2:30PM (NZT)
Recent data out of New Zealand has been overwhelmingly positive, however its impact on this pair has been outweighed by the broader trend of a strengthening USD. For much of last week the NZD lost ground trading to a low of 0.8088 before recovering a touch heading into the weekend. That recovery accelerated early on Monday helped by improving Chinese manufacturing data released over the weekend, and then further by the very strong NZ terms of trade data out yesterday. The NZD is now trading around 0.8200, but direction from here will once again be driven by news flow from offshore. With little domestic data for the rest of this week the market will be focusing on a number of key US releases. We have the trade balance, non-manufacturing ISM, and GDP all set for release ahead of the all-important employment report on Friday. The key level to watch is still the support area around 0.8100. The bounce from there in the last two days is a positive sign, but if the pair fails to kick on up through 0.8200 we could easily turn back down and test it again. A move below 0.8100 would open the way for much broader losses.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
NZD/USD 0.8191 0.8100 0.8300 0.8088 - 0.8265

Friday 29th November 3:30PM (NZT)
Despite positive data from New Zealand and a mixed bag of results from the United States this week, the New Zealand dollar has continued to lose ground to the USD. Broad USD strength has played a large part in the move as has a week AUD that has weighed on the NZD. The pair is currently sitting just above minor support that comes in around the 0.8100 level. A move below there would open the way for further losses toward 0.7900. With little out of NZ next week offshore factors will continue to drive the pair. From the US there is plenty to draw focus with with both manufacturing and non-manufacturing PMI’s, trade balance, GDP, and Friday’s employment report all scheduled for release.
The current interbank midrate is:    NZDUSD 0.8093

The interbank range this week has been:    NZDUSD 0.8088 - 0.8265
Tuesday 26th November 4:30PM (NZT)
The New Zealand dollar came under all sorts of pressure from the USD in the second half of last week. The move was triggered in large part by the Fed minutes which seemed to increase the risk of tapering in the coming months. A very weak Australian dollar also weighed heavily on the NZD and the currency made a low of 0.8125 heading into the weekend. We have seen a recovery of sorts in the early stages of this week with the NZD currently testing minor resistance around 0.8240. A break above here would likely see a move back up towards 0.8300, where I suspect there will be plenty of sellers lurking. This week from NZ we have trade balance data, business confidence, and building consents to draw focus. While from the US we get building permits, consumer confidence, and durable goods orders.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
NZD/USD 0.8225 0.8100 0.8300 0.8125 - 0.8389

Friday 22nd November 2:00PM (NZT)
It has been another wild ride for this pair so far this week. It is all about the US dollar, and the apparent prospect of QE tapering from the Federal Reserve. With longer term US interest rates again pushing higher, the increased USD demand has kept the pressure on the NZ dollar since the Fed’s monetary policy meeting minutes were released. Expect these kinds of moves to continue in the coming months. In the near term the direction will be governed by whether or not the pair can consolidate through the support at .8200. If the US dollar continues this weeks surprising resurgence, the next levels of major support come in at .8100 and then .8050 below. The lead for this pair will continue to predominantly come from demand for the US dollar. To that end the US data will continue to dominate next week. Albeit a little unlikely given the current momentum for the USD, failure to consolidate through the .8200 level will see a continuation of the .8200-.8400 range that we have seen over the last couple of months.
The current interbank midrate is:    NZDUSD .8200

The interbank range this week has been:    NZDUSD .8189 - .8389
Tuesday 19th November 2:30PM (NZT)
The New Zealand dollar has performed well over the past week, but much of this has been due to broad USD weakness. The USD came under pressure across the board last week as incoming Fed Chair Janet Yellen showed her strong support for the current quantitative easing programme. The NZD saw further gains yesterday as releases from the Communist Party conference in China over the weekend surprised many with the broad reforms proposed. That buoyed Asian stock markets and was generally positive for risk sentiment. Levels towards 0.8400 could not be sustained however, and the USD has recovered some lost ground in the last 12 hours. This was on the back of a number of other Fed speakers were more positive on the prospect for US growth than the market had been expecting. The NZDUSD looks set to continue ranging between 0.8200 and 0.8400 in the near term. There will be plenty of data to digest this week from the US with the highlights being inflation, retail sales, and minutes from the last Fed meeting.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
NZD/USD 0.8334 0.8200 0.8400 0.8175 - 0.8405

Friday 15th November 2:00PM (NZT) - Update
The New Zealand dollar has had a wild ride the week with a couple of sharp moves that were both quickly reversed. The first one came on the downside after Wednesday’s release of the Financial Stability Report. Initial headlines caused some selling that triggered stops below 0.8200 and the weeks lows traded very briefly. The report contained no real surprises, with rate increases still expected next year. The NZD quickly recovered and went on to make decent gains on the day. Those gains were extended on Thursday morning as the USD lost ground across the board thanks to testimony from incoming Fed chairman Janet Yellen. The NZD then saw a sharp spike higher as a larger order must have hit the market and the weeks highs of 0.8357 traded. Again this level only lasted a few seconds and the pair drifted lower back below 0.8300. Trading looks like it will remain contained between 0.8200 and 0.8400 over the coming days. There is little in the way of important data from NZ next week so the driving force for the pair will likely continue to come from offshore. To that extent from the US next week focus will be on retail sales, existing home sales, minutes from the last Fed meeting, and weekly unemployment claims.
The current interbank midrate is:    NZDUSD 0.8270

The interbank range this week has been:    NZDUSD 0.8175 - 0.9357
Tuesday 12th November 2:30PM (NZT)
After gaining in the early stages of last week the New Zealand dollar could not sustain levels above 0.8400 and started to drift lower. Soft Australian employment data weight on the NZD a touch and a solid US GDP figure on Thursday saw further downside. On Friday night the US employment report also surprised on the strong side and the NZD plummeted to 0.8226 in the aftermath. We saw a small recovery yesterday but overnight sellers emerged to test the lows again. There is a fair amount of support between 0.8200 and 0.8220 which has so far contained the downside and I expect the pair to do some more work around this level. Any sustained break below there would be a negative signal and the NZD would likely move quickly to test 0.8100. This week we hear from Bernanke and incoming Fed Chairman Janet Yellen as well as having trade balance data to digest. From NZ we have the RBNZ financial stability report on Wednesday and retails sales on Thursday.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
NZD/USD 0.8234 0.8200 0.8400 0.8226 - 0.8414

Friday 8th November 2:00PM (NZT) - Update
It has been an interesting week for this pair. The NZD saw rising demand to start the week, and this accelerated upon the release of the strong NZ Q3 employment numbers on Wednesday. However, the pair was not able to consolidate above .8400, and the pressure came back on yesterday as weaker demand for the AUD following the Australian employment numbers weighed on sentiment for the NZD. The next focus became the important US GDP numbers released overnight. The strength was a surprise and has seen the market start to think a little more seriously about a potential tapering of QE from the FED in December. This has seen pressure on global stock markets spill naturally through to lower demand for the NZ dollar. The support at the .8300-8310 level represents the near term target for downside pressure. A push through this level opens up the way for further investigations lower down towards .8200. This level  will become the focus if tonight’s US employment numbers come stronger than the 121k jobs growth the market is expecting.
The current interbank midrate is:    NZDUSD 0.8326

The interbank range this week has been:    NZDUSD 0.8250 - 0.8414
Tuesday 5th November 1:30PM (NZT)
There has been little in the way of overall direction for the New Zealand dollar against the USD in the past week. Support towards 0.8200 seems to have contained the downside, while moves above 0.8300 have been short lived. We are very likely however, to get some action this week with a number of key releases due. Tomorrow sees NZ unemployment rate which will drive the local currency, after which the focus will turn to US. To the extent we get GDP on Thursday and the employment report on Friday. In the short term expect the rangey nature of the price action to continue. The prospect of a cash rate increase in the first half of 2014 with support the NZD in any periods of softness.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
NZD/USD 0.8293 0.8200 0.8400 0.8194 - 0.8312

Friday 1st November 3:00PM (NZT) - Update
In the early part of the week the New Zealand dollar continued the pullback from recent highs. Moody’s rating agency caused a quick 50 point loss when they revealed they had talked about cutting NZ triple A rating, but those losses were quickly reversed. The currency then headed into the double header of the  US Fed’s rate decision, and RBNZ monetary policy statement on Thursday morning. We saw some volatility around both announcements, but with no great shocks the impact has been limited. The cautious tone from the RBNZ with regard to the housing market has help support the currency to a degree and since then downside has been limited to support around 0.8230. But we have failed to see any sustained upside action as well and it looks like we will drift sideways into the weekend. We do get key data on US manufacturing early tomorrow morning. This could set the tone heading into the early part of next week, when we have GDP and the all-important employment report to draw focus in the US. From NZ the calendar is pretty light with only employment data on Tuesday to focus on.
The current interbank midrate is:    NZDUSD 0.8257

The interbank range this week has been:    NZDUSD 0.8194 - 0.8332
Tuesday 29th October 3:00PM (NZT)
The New Zealand dollar has been under pressure since making highs on Tuesday evening after the softer than expected US employment numbers. The initial down move came on the back of concerns about the Chinese banking system, but since then the NZD has remained on the back foot. The currency has traded down to minor support around 0.8270 which has held the downside so far. A break below this level would open the way for further losses towards 0.8160. Levels above 0.8500 were a step too far for the NZD and we are probably approaching fairer value for the currency, even in light of the weaker near term outlook for the USD. Key for this week will be RBNZ rate statement on Thursday. While from the US we get retail sales, inflation, Fed rate decision, and the manufacturing index.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
NZD/USD 0.8290 0.8270 0.8470 0.8272 - 0.8542

Friday 25th October 1:30PM (NZT) - Update
It has been a wild ride for the New Zealand dollar this week, but the net result is that the currency has finished substantially lower against the USD. The highs of the week were reached overnight on Tuesday when the US released their employment report for September. This came in below expectations and disappointed the market who sharply sold USD across the board. The resulting strength in the NZD only lasted about 12 hours however, as a wave of selling hammered Australasian currencies after concerns about the Chinese banking system saw risk assets dumped. The NZD has remained on the back foot since then and traded to a low of 0.8305 on the last hour. Next week could be a big one with plenty of US data set for release along with the RBNZ monetary policy statement. Direction from here is a tough call with the market now having priced in the expectation that the Fed will be on hold until at least March 14. If US data softens then those expectations could get pushed out even further and the USD could weaken even more. On the other hand it’s hard to imagine the data printing strong enough for those expectations to be brought forward much. From the US next week we have full economic calendar that includes retail sales, inflation, the Fed policy meeting, and manufacturing data.
The current interbank midrate is:    NZDUSD 0.8308

The interbank range this week has been:    NZDUSD 0.8305 - 0.8542
Tuesday 22nd October 2:20PM (NZT)
The USD was under pressure much of last week. After the temporary solution to the US government shutdown was announced, a wave of USD selling saw the New Zealand dollar spike up to 0.8524. Subsequently, the NZD pulled back before having another above 0.8500 heading into the weekend. This time the currency only made it to 0.8516 before running out of steam. There is support around 0.8440 which has so far held the downside and if the NZD can build a base here we could have another go above 0.8500. Key to that will be US data out this week. The first and most important release is the employment report out tonight. The market is expecting a gain of around 180k and any result under that is likely to see the NZD back up over 0.8500. With current sentiment somewhat negative on the USD, we would likely have to see a big positive surprise (i.e. over 220k) to get a return of USD strength which could push the NZD back below 0.8400. NZ trade balance on Thursday will also draw focus, as will US trade balance, home sales, and durable goods orders.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
NZD/USD 0.8454 0.8400 0.8600 0.8346 - 0.8524

Friday 18th October 2:00PM (NZT) - Update
The New Zealand dollar has made good gains this week helped by slightly stronger than expected inflation data, that only increases the risk of a rate hike from the RBNZ coming sooner than the market is expecting. The political situation in the US has also undermined the USD and in the wake of the deal that was announced yesterday the USD has been punished across the board. This has happened as many in the market now believe the Fed will be on hold and we won’t see any tapering of quantitative easing purchases until well into the New Year. It does seem unlikely they will taper until a longer term resolution has been reached on government funding and the debt ceiling. The NZD spiked up to 0.8524 last night but has since drifted back below 0.8470. With current sentiment very negative on the USD we could see further upside, although gains above 0.8550 will prove much harder going. The NZD only briefly traded above 0.8600 twice during the entire financial crisis and it seems unlikely we will see gains through that level. With only credit card spending and trade balance data from NZ next week, the major focus will continue to be on the US and potential release of economic data that has been put on hold the last two weeks.
The current interbank midrate is:    NZDUSD 0.8458

The interbank range this week has been:    NZDUSD 0.8285 - 0.8524
Tuesday 15th October 2:20PM (NZT)
Price action in the New Zealand dollar has been dominated over the past week by news flow and speculation around the US government shutdown and debt ceiling standoff. Reports last week that a deal was close saw an increase in risk appetite come back into the market and the NZD benefited with a move up to 0.8354. When it became clear a deal wasn’t so close the NZD drifted back off to 0.8280. But now it looks like we are once again close to some sort of deal and the NZD has again found support rallying to 0.8381 so far. The next topside resistance comes in around 0.8440 being the peak the market reached after the Fed famously failed to taper quantitative easing back on September 19th. It’s hard to know just how much of the current USD weakness is as a result of the announcement that Janet Yellen will take over from Ben Bernanke at the Fed. The market consensus is that she is very supportive of easy monetary policy, which naturally undermines support for the dollar. Most believe QE tapering could be delayed even further as a result of her appointment. This is certainly a factor but only time will tell if the market is correct in its assessment of her.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
NZD/USD 0.8379 0.8240 0.8440 0.8232 - 0.8381

Friday 11th October 12:00PM (NZT) - Update
It has been a very directionless week of trading for the New Zealand dollar with the market treading water waiting for developments in US government standoff. The only real move came yesterday as weakness in the Australian dollar, after their employment data, dragged the NZD down to its lows of 0.8232. But a positive development from the US overnight that a temporary deal on the debt ceiling could be reached saw a ‘risk on’ sentiment return to the market. Both the NZD and AUD benefited from this, and the NZD traded back to 0.8300. Developments in the US will continue to stay in focus until a firm deal is agreed and the government shutdown is ended. For now it looks like resistance toward 0.8350 will continue to cap any strength with support coming in on the down side around 0.8200 and then again 0.8150. The only data from NZ next week will be inflation figures released on Wednesday.
The current interbank midrate is:    NZDUSD 0.8274

The interbank range this week has been:    NZDUSD 0.8232 - 0.8336
Tuesday 8th October 2:15PM (NZT)
The New Zealand dollar has been locked in a range of 0.8250 to 0.8350 for much of the past two weeks. A brief dip to 0.8200 in the early part of last week was quickly reversed on the back of RBNZ Governor Wheelers warning of potential interest rate hikes. Since then we have seen sideways action with all the focus on the mess that is US politics. The risks around the stalemate grow day by day. A short term shutdown (i.e less than two weeks) will have little lasting impact, but if an agreement isn’t reached on raising the debt ceiling within the next nine days the market will start to react. So far the lack of wild moves in the USD reflects the belief that an agreement will be reached on the debt ceiling. Only time will tell if that belief is misplaced. Until then expect more trading within the current range.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
NZD/USD 0.8293 0.8200 0.8400 0.8205 - 0.8350

Friday 4th October 2:00PM (NZT) - Update
The main focus this week has been on the stalemate in Washington and the resulting Government shutdown. The markets have so far been relatively subdued believing that an agreement will be reached before Oct 17, which is when the debt ceiling needs to be raised. All bets are off however should the US fail to reach an agreement by then as they could start to default on debt payments. Monday saw the New Zealand dollar gain ground after strong business confidence numbers, but the strength was short lived. The NZD started coming under a little pressure and in the middle of the week traded down to its lows as RBNZ Assistant Governor McDermott was on the wires stating NZ’s neutral interest rate had fallen to around 4.5%. The NZD found some support around 0.8200 and started to recover slowly. That recovery picked up steam after an article by Governor Wheeler suggested interest rates would move toward 4.5% quicker than expected and could go further if the housing market doesn't cool down. The NZD had a couple of cracks at resistance around 0.8340 in the wake of those comments, but failed to break through and has since pulled back to just below 0.8300. With 0.8340 capping the topside and support towards 0.8200 the NZD looks to be range bound in the near term. Developments in the US will be key as to which direction the NZD finally decides to break. Next week we also have business confidence and manufacturing index from NZ to digest.
The current interbank midrate is:    NZDUSD 0.8298

The interbank range this week has been:    NZDUSD 0.8195 - 0.8341
Tuesday 1st October 2:15PM (NZT)
After coming under pressure in the early part of last week the New Zealand dollar found support around the 0.8220 level and what followed was mostly quiet ranging trading below 0.8300. The NZD got a boost yesterday after the release of strong business confidence numbers, and then overnight the pair traded to 0.8334 as the USD weakened in the lead up to the US government shutdown. It seems most of immediate impact is already priced into the market, so the focus will turn to how long this shutdown will run and what sort of impact it will have on the US economy. Friday’s key employment report looks to be on hold from the US, although we still expect to get data on the manufacturing and service sectors this week. There is little from NZ set for release so most of the influence on the local currency will come from broader movements in the USD.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
NZD/USD 0.8298 0.8250 0.8450 0.8217 - 0.8334

Friday 27th September 2:00PM (NZT) - Update
This week has seen some strange price action for this pair. Its has been a week light on economic news, but after starting out with reasonable sentiment, the NZD dollar saw three separate periods of concerted pressure from US dollar. Whilst the USD has bounced from the previous week, it has been more a case of NZ weakness, with supply coming after the pair was not able to consolidate through .8400. For now the nearby .8300 level represents initial resistance, ahead of the more substantial .8380 level. On the downside, support comes in at .8220, a push through that level would likely lead to further NZD weakness. Most of the focus next week will come from the US, with just NZ business confidence numbers on Monday to offer local focus. In the US there is the usual myriad of data, but the primary focus comes in the form of the all-important employments numbers late Friday, so we can expect periods of contained price action as the market waits for this crucial number.
The current interbank midrate is:    NZDUSD 0.8281

The interbank range this week has been:    NZDUSD 0.8217 - 0.8390
Tuesday 24th September 2:00PM (NZT)
The New Zealand dollar has managed to consolidate gains made last week in the wake of the Fed announcement and better NZ GDP. Since that sharp move higher the currency has mostly traded sideways in the tight range between 0.8350 and 0.8400. Although the currency is maintaining these elevated levels, further gains from here will prove tough going with plenty of resistance between 0.8400 and 0.8500. In the last couple of hours the currency has seen some selling pressure that has pushed it down to 0.8320. With only trade balance and business confidence data from NZ this week the focus will be on US numbers and any indication of the timing for a potential tapering by the Fed.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
NZD/USD 0.8324 0.8250 0.8450 0.8155 - 0.8436

Friday 20th September 2:00PM (NZT) - Update
All the surprises this week have been to the topside in the New Zealand dollar. The week started positively with the news the Larry Summers has pulled out of the race for chairman of the Fed. That caused a wave of broad based USD selling and the NZD was a big gainer breaking above resistance around 0.8180. The move higher was sustained and when the Fed failed to announce any tapering of quantitative easing (QE) on Thursday morning the currency took off. It rallied from around 0.8230 to 0.8370 very quickly and when NZ GDP hit the wires a few hours later the currency got another shot in the arm. The NZD peaked at 0.8436 last night before pulling back below 0.8400. The majority of the NZD strength has been on the back of broad based USD weakness and how much further this has to run is a tough call. Taking a long term view the Fed are still predicting to end QE by mid-2014 and if that turns out to be the case then current levels are going to provide a good selling opportunity. But the failure of the Fed to pull the trigger yesterday leaves that forecast a little in doubt and that is the big unknown going forward. We will also be getting a new Fed chairman at the end of January and how that impacts on any tapering remains to be seen. There is a lot of resistance between 0.8400 and 0.8500 and I wouldn’t be surprised to see a medium term peak put in place somewhere between those two levels over the coming days. Next week from the US we have consumer confidence, durable goods orders, new home sales, GDP, and pending home sales to digest. While from NZ we just have trade balance data on Wednesday.
The current interbank midrate is:    NZDUSD 0.8378

The interbank range this week has been:    NZDUSD 0.8155 - 0.8436
Tuesday 17th September 2:00PM (NZT)
The New Zealand dollar made good gains against the USD last week, especially in the wake of the RBNZ monetary policy statement. Key resistance between 0.8150 and 0.8180 capped the gains into the weekend, however that all changed in thin Monday morning trade when news of Larry Summers withdrawal from the race for the Fed chairmanship hit the wires. The NZD gapped higher and traded all the way up to 0.8224 before running out of steam. Since then we have seen a small pull back with the currency currently trading around 0.8180. While above 0.8150 the focus remains of the topside, although further gains may be limited ahead of the key event of the week being the Fed announcement on tapering out Thursday morning. Later that same morning we also get NZ GDP to throw in the mix.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
NZD/USD 0.8173 0.8150 0.8350 0.8011 - 0.8224

Friday 13th September 2:00PM (NZT) - Update
It has been a good week for the New Zealand dollar building on gains of the previous week. A reduction in the likelihood of military action on Syria helped support the NZD as Russia brokers a deal for them to hand over their chemical weapons. The NZD was then given a shot in the arm from the RBNZ after the monetary policy statement. The RBNZ has adjusted the projected path for the cash rate and now sees a hike early in the second quarter of next year. Once they start hiking they expect to increase rates 200 points over two and a half years. Although the RBNZ has really only adjusted their outlook more into line with what the market was expecting, the NZD jumped 60 points on the back of it and has managed to hold onto most of the gains. This is even more impressive in the face of the Australian dollar which lost nearly 100 points after their employment data yesterday. However, there is big resistance between 0.8150 - 0.8180. This has capped the topside for now and should prove tough going especially with the AUD weighing as it struggles to recover. The risk/reward scenario would favour a pullback from current levels toward minor support around 0.8050, although tonight’s data from the US could be the deciding factor. To that extent we get retail sales, producer prices, and consumer sentiment. Next week from New Zealand we get current account and consumer sentiment data along with GDP which will be closely watched. The highlight from the US will be the important Fed policy meeting and potential tapering announcement.
The current interbank midrate is:    NZDUSD 0.8132

The interbank range this week has been:    NZDUSD 0.7962 - 0.8157
Tuesday 10th September 2:00PM (NZT)
The New Zealand dollar has been appreciating against the USD since the beginning of September. Much of the move higher last week came as geo-political concerns around Syria reduced. The NZD was also helped by a strong AUD that is benefiting from some improved data domestically and out of China. The latest leg high came on Friday night after disappointing US employment data hit the wires. That saw the USD lose ground across the board and the NZD trade up over 0.8000 where it currently sits. The next level of resistance comes in just above 0.8100 although that might prove a step too far ahead of the RBNZ monetary policy statement on Thursday. Key data out of the US this week is all released on Friday in the form of retail sales, producer prices, and consumer sentiment.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
NZD/USD 0.8022 0.7930 0.8130 0.7775 - 0.8030

Friday 6th September 2:00PM (NZT) - Update
The NZ dollar has outperformed the US dollar this week, albeit it started from depressed levels. The positive Chinese manufacturing numbers coupled with lower geo-political concerns to ease demand for the USD at the start of the week. With little in the way of domestic news in NZ this week, drivers from the US and the wider market have provided the lead for this pair. Less “dovish” talk from the RBA help the NZD piggyback higher on the back of increased demand for the Australian dollar. In the US, both strong manufacturing and non-manufacturing numbers have boosted sentiment, pushing longer end interest rates again higher. Normally this would provide demand for the US dollar. However, the prospect of the FED ”tapering” its bond buying program have seen investors wary of buying US bonds, and this has undermined the USD. These opposing forces have seen the pair continue to trade in familiar territory for most of the week. US employment numbers later on today offer the next focus.
The current interbank midrate is:    NZDUSD 0.7908

The interbank range this week has been:    NZDUSD 0.7757 - 0.7928
Tuesday 3rd September 4:00PM (NZT)
Last week was all about risk aversion on the back of volatility in emerging markets and the threat of a military strike on Syria. This kept the New Zealand dollar under pressure for much of the week, as the USD benefited from safe haven flows. The NZD closed the week near its lows of 0.7722, but news over the weekend that president Obama will seek a vote from congress before any military action has taken the pressure off the currency. The NZD opened on Monday morning around 40 points higher and since then has continued to recover. The potential for a strike on Syria is still there but the time horizon has now taken it off the immediate radar. With little economic data out in NZ this week, the focus turns to offshore with a number of central bank meetings (including the RBA today) and the US employment report on Friday. The NZD looks like it may drift higher to test initial resistance around 0.7865 in the short term.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
NZD/USD 0.7824 0.7730 0.7930 0.7722 - 0.7873

Friday 30th August 2.00PM (NZT) - Update
The New Zealand dollar heads into the weekend trading near its lows for the week. Data from NZ has had little impact this week as the currency has been driven by border risk aversion in the market. There have been bouts of NZD strength on the back of some soft US data (durable goods orders on Monday and pending home sales on Wednesday), but overall the market has been pressured by safe haven flows into USD. This combined with last night’s upward revision to US GDP saw decent gains for the US dollar across the board. There have been two major factors driving the safe haven flows. The volatility and pressure on emerging markets, in particular India,  and the potential for a military strike on Syria. If concerns increase for either of those two factors, then the NZD could well test down to the lows set in late June at 0.7684. There is also plenty of data out in the US next week to focus on, most notably the US employment report on Friday.
The current interbank midrate is:    NZDUSD 0.7772

The interbank range this week has been:    NZDUSD 0.7742 - 0.7873
Tuesday 27th August 4:00PM (NZT)
The sharp fall we saw last week in the New Zealand dollar seems to have bottomed for now. The currency made lows of 0.7763 on Friday evening before turning around after the very soft US new home sales data. The recovery in the NZD was helped by more disappointing US data last night in the form of durable goods orders. There is now a small question mark hanging over the growth outlook for quarter three in the US and this is going to weigh on the USD a touch. There is plenty of room on the topside for the NZD to make further gains. The first level of resistance comes in around 0.7930 and I expect a test of that over the coming days. Business confidence from New Zealand on Thursday will be watched while from the US the focus will be on consumer confidence data tonight, pending home sales tomorrow night, and quarter two GDP out on Thursday night.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
NZD/USD 0.7825 0.7730 0.7930 0.7763 - 0.8075

Friday 23rd August 2.00PM (NZT) - Update
The New Zealand dollar has been on the back foot this week from the get go. Downward pressure has come on two fronts. Firstly, we have seen a resurgent USD across the board. The US economy is on a steady path of improvement and the Fed are set to taper QE purchases. This is supporting the USD and will continue to do so. We will however get bouts of USD weakness as sellers of US treasuries repatriate funds offshore. That is what we saw in the two weeks prior to this as the NZD rallied from 0.7750 to 0.8150. A recent article on Zero Hedge highlighted this exact point. It shows holdings of Treasuries by foreign countries decrease in June by $57 billion. China, Japan, Hong Kong, and a bunch of others were all net sellers of US debt. In fact the only buyer was the Fed. We can expect more of these flows to counter the broader trend of a strong USD over the coming weeks and months. The NZD was also weighed on by the RBNZ announcement on loan-to-value ratios. This somewhat decreases the likelihood of a rate hike to counter house price inflation. The NZD hit its low for the week yesterday at 0.7804 and so far the bounce has been less than convincing. Look for 0.7950 to cap any strength with further downside tests toward 0.7750 favoured.
The current interbank midrate is:    NZDUSD 0.7828

The interbank range this week has been:    NZDUSD 0.7804 - 0.8163
Tuesday 20th August 3:00PM (NZT)
The New Zealand dollar finished last week on a firm footing near 0.8100. There was small bout of weakness when the earthquake hit Wellington on Friday, however this was short lived and the currency quickly recovered. The 0.8100 level should have provided good resistance but in the end it was overcome, and the NZD traded up to the next resistance at 0.8160 during yesterday’s trading session. That however was a step too far and the currency quickly reversed from there. The reversal from 0.8160 left the currency looking a little vulnerable and this afternoon an announcement from the RBNZ on loan-to-value ratios (LVRs) has seen it lose a lot more ground. The move down through 0.8050 has confirmed the risks have all swung back to the downside and further losses seem likely, albeit the pair still well within its broader recent range.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
NZD/USD 0.7997 0.7960 0.8160 0.7935 - 0.8163

Friday 16th August 2.00PM (NZT) - Update
After solid gains throughout most of last week, the New Zealand dollar spent Monday and Tuesday slowly drifting lower. This had the feeling of nothing more than a corrective pullback and that was confirmed when the NZD started heading higher on Wednesday. That strength was helped by better than expected retail sales data which gave the currency a boost. After the NZD broke above 0.8050 it quickly traded up to key resistance at 0.8100. That level capped the topside and we saw a quick turnaround last night after a good reading on weekly US unemployment claims. The NZD plummeted from 0.8100 to 0.8000 in the space of a couple of hours in line with the broad USD strength seen throughout the market. All eyes were focused on the downside, however there was no follow through. In fact what occurred was a bounce back that was just as sharp as the selloff. There was no obvious driver for the sudden weakness in the USD, but the NZD recovered all the way back up to 0.8080. I still see 0.8100 capping the topside for now, however any potential move above there could spark a wave of stop-loss buying. This would see a quick move up to 0.8160 or even 0.8200. Next week’s data from New Zealand comes in the form of producer prices and inflation expectations. While from the US we get home sales data and the Fed monetary policy meeting minutes.
The current interbank midrate is:    NZDUSD 0.8092

The interbank range this week has been:    NZDUSD 0.7935 - 0.8103
Tuesday 13th August 3:00PM (NZT)
After gaining through much of last week on the back of broad based USD weakness, the New Zealand dollar ran out of steam around 0.8050. The currency has spent a couple of days now ranging between 0.8000 - 0.8050. Any move up through 0.8050 will run into stronger resistance around 0.8100, which should cap it in the near term. The downside finds support coming in around 0.7900 and these to levels should contain trade for much of the week. NZ retail sales data tomorrow will draw focus, as will US data this week in the form of retail sales, inflation, building permits, and consumer confidence.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
NZD/USD 0.7996 0.7900 0.8100 0.7831 - 0.8057

Friday 9th August 2.00PM (NZT) - Update
Apart from the first hour of trade on Monday morning, the NZD has seen a relentless march higher this week. The low of the week traded on the open early Monday morning and the recovery since then has been dramatic. The high of 0.8046 was struck last night and since then we have seen a small pullback to current trade just below 0.8000. It seems much of the gain can be attributed to broad based USD weakness which has flown in the face of recent positive data out of the United States. The suspicion is that capital outflows from the US bond market and into other countries have played a large part in this USD weakness. Any further potential strength will run into solid resistance around 0.8100 that should limit the topside for now.  Next week from NZ we have retail sales and manufacturing index data, while from the US we get retail sales, inflation, and consumer confidence to focus on.
The current interbank midrate is:    NZDUSD 0.7987

The interbank range this week has been:    NZDUSD 0.7699 - 0.8046
Tuesday 6th August 1:45PM (NZT)
The start of this week has been dominated by news that Fonterra had shipped some contaminated produce and China, amongst other countries, had halted imports. There was a dramatic fall in the value of the NZD at the market open on Monday morning. Having closed the previous week around 0.7835 the currency quickly traded down to 0.7700. Those lows were made in the first few minutes of trading and from then on there was a gradual, albeit choppy, recovery. The NZD climbed back above 0.7800 and overnight made further gains to 0.7850 in the face of strong US data. So at this point is looks as if the impact of the Fonterra news was very short term and provided a great buying opportunity for those who have been waiting for a dip on a number of NZD crosses. Any further strength in the currency should run into good resistance around 0.7900 ahead of tomorrow's employment data.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
NZD/USD 0.7839 0.7700 0.7900 0.7699 - 0.8037

Friday 2nd August 2.00PM (NZT) - Update
The NZD has struggled this week having turned lower from the 0.8100 level on Monday. The move down through support around 0.7990 is a big warning sign that the recovery we have seen in the currency over the past four weeks is over. The broader downtrend of the last three months is now back in play. The initial target will be a test of cycle lows around 0.7700. This recent weakness has come despite good business confidence numbers out of New Zealand on Wednesday. The NZD was certainly not helped by a very weak Australian dollar that has made fresh lows and continues to look heavy. Last night out of the US we also got some very good figures on the manufacturing sector which helped to boost demand for USD’s. The key focus for NZ next week will be on employment data, while out of the US we get their all-important employment report tonight. That certainly has the potential to throw a spanner in the works, however all early indications are it should be a strong result and continue to support the USD.
The current interbank midrate is:    NZDUSD 0.7895

The interbank range this week has been:    NZDUSD 0.7853 - 0.8099
Tuesday 30th July 4:45PM (NZT)
The New Zealand dollar has maintained and reasonably firm footing since last week’s RBNZ statement. The currency closed the week near 0.8100 and spent much of yesterday testing that level as well. It’s failure to break through has seen a pullback overnight, and some weak building consent numbers this morning add to the softness in demand. The first line of support now comes in around 0.7990, and as long the currency holds above there the focus remains on the topside. However the picture quickly changes on a sustained move below that level. Such a move would warn the broader downtrend of the past three months is trying to reassert itself. The only other NZ data out this week is business confidence released tomorrow. After that, the focus turns to offshore events and in particular the FED policy meeting on Thursday morning, and US employment report on Friday night. Both these events could cause a large move in the value of the USD.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
NZD/USD 0.7991 0.7900 0.8100 0.7906 - 0.8106

Friday 26th July 2.00PM (NZT) - Update
The week started with the New Zealand continuing its slow recovery against the USD. It was trading around the 0.8000 level when very poor Chinese manufacturing numbers hit the wires. This caused broad selling of the AUD which in turn dragged the NZD lower. The pair traded down to near 0.7900 ahead of the RBNZ monetary policy statement. In the statement, Governor Wheeler warned that growing momentum in the housing and construction sectors could impact monetary policy going forward. This was a slightly stronger warning than the market was expecting, even though the banks said they expect to keep rates on hold through to the end of the year. This saw an immediate increase in demand for the NZD as it traded back up toward 0.8000 again. Overnight some softer US data seems to have been the trigger for a bout of broad USD weakness. This saw the NZD make further gains against the USD and it traded up to 0.8100. Although most currencies gained against the USD overnight, the NZD has outperformed and as a result is stronger on all of its crosses. There is plenty of data out in the US next week, but the two key releases are the Fed meeting early Thursday morning, and the employment report on Friday night. From New Zealand we have building consents on Tuesday and business confidence on Wednesday, but these both should be of limited impact.
The current interbank midrate is:    NZDUSD 0.8077

The interbank range this week has been:    NZDUSD 0.7906 - 0.8106
Tuesday 23rd July 3:00PM (NZT)
The recent waning of momentum in the USD has allowed the New Zealand dollar to regain some of the ground it has lost over the last couple of months. The earthquakes in the Wellington region have had little impact on the currency, and that should continue to be the case in the absence of a bigger, more damaging shake. The NZD has also been helped up by a slightly firmer AUD that has been underpinned so for this week by stronger commodities and some positive developments out of China. The NZD is currently right in the resistance zone of 0.7950-0.8000 which will be tough to overcome. If it does manage to get up through 0.8000, then a test of 0.8100 could well be on the cards. Trade balance data tomorrow should have limited impact ahead of the more important RBNZ monetary policy decision on Thursday.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
NZD/USD 0.7995 0.7900 0.8100 0.7793 - 0.7990

Friday 19th July 12.00PM (NZT) - Update
This week has seen the USD under some pressure on most pairings, and against the NZD is no exception. With little news of note in NZ, the lead has predominantly come from the US. Of primary focus has been FED chairman Bernanke’s semi-annual testimony on Capitol Hill. Bernanke’s comments make it clear that the data remains the key to the timing of when the QE measures will be scaled back. He was at pains to emphasize the low cash rate was not going to change anytime soon.  Expect this pair to continue to further establish itself within the .7750-.7950 range for the time being. The US dollar momentum has certainly waned, and this has been a function of the recent soft patch of economic news. The focus from here will come from the RBNZ monetary policy statement on Thursday next week. There is no chance of a change in monetary policy at this meeting, but progress on efforts to control housing demand will be of interest.
The current interbank midrate is:    NZDUSD 0.7908

The interbank range this week has been:    NZDUSD 0.7732 - 0.7940
Tuesday 16th July 3:30PM (NZT)
The last week has seen the New Zealand dollar test higher and test lower but end up around where it stated. Mid last week after the Fed minutes the currency spiked up through resistance at 0.7880, reaching as high as 0.7968, but the move was short lived. The currency quickly traded back down to 0.7800 where is seemed comfortable. In the early part of last night we saw a bout of USD strength with the NZD getting pushed down to 0.7732. However the losses were quickly reversed in the wake of much softer than expected US retail sales data and the NZD quickly headed back up to 0.7800. The currency has now spent the last three weeks trading sideways in the broad 0.7700 - 0.7900 range. It is noticeable that it has failed to make fresh lows on a number of occasions, when the AUD has been doing just that. This does warn of the potential for a bigger corrective rally, but it will take a sustained move above resistance at 0.7880 to really bring that into focus. In the meantime we can expect more sideways action. Any move below 0.7700 would be a very weak signal and warn that the medium term downtrend is still in play with further losses to follow.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
NZD/USD 0.7817 0.7680 0.7880 0.7732 - 0.7968

Friday 12th July 2:45PM (NZT) - Update
It’s been a very choppy week for the New Zealand dollar. It opened the week near its lows, but quickly rallied 100 points as there was little in the way of follow through selling in the wake of last Friday’s US employment report. NZ Finance Minister Bill English’s comments that it’s just a matter of time before interest rates rise saw the NZD spike up to 0.7880 before weak Chinese export data turned it around. This saw it sold to 0.7780 in line with the AUD. Then came the Fed minutes and Bernanke’s speech that both had a significantly softer tone than the market was expecting. The NZD snapped higher as the USD got hammered across the board. The currency gained in excess of 150 points reaching a high for the week of 0.7968 before the market realised it was probably overdone. The pullback from those highs never seemed to stop, and the selling continued as rumour of a very soft reading for Chinese growth next week did the rounds. The NZD lost close to 200 points and traded to levels below where it was before the Fed minutes. It has since recovered and we can expect further volatility, as liquidity in all markets are well below normal levels. Direction from here is a tough call. There is a small upside bias and I suspect dips toward 0.7780 will continue to find support, and should limit the downside for now.
The current interbank midrate is:    NZDUSD 0.7864

The interbank range this week has been:    NZDUSD 0.7701 - 0.7968
Tuesday 9th July 4:00PM (NZT)
The recent theme of volatility continued throughout last week’s trade, albeit within a relatively contained range. Initially the pair saw muddled price action as the market hurdled the 4th July holiday in the US, that came ahead of the important US employment numbers on Friday. The stronger than expected number garnered a strong move from the market. Demand for the US dollar jumped as the likelihood to early tapering of monetary stimulation from the FED increased.  The pair bounced off support at .7860 and the start to this week has seen the NZD reverse a good portion on Friday’s losses. Today’s positive NZ business sentiment numbers are the highlight of this week’s NZ economic calendar. In the US the FED’s monetary policy meeting minutes are due for release on Wednesday. These come ahead of important consumer sentiment numbers late on Friday. Easing of tensions in Europe has boosted equity markets and this has supported the NZD so far this week.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
NZD/USD 0.7802 0.7680 0.7860 0.7688 - 0.7859

Friday 5th July 2:45PM (NZT) - Update
With little in the way of domestic data out of NZ this week the New Zealand dollar has been driven by offshore factors. It has also been contained within the 0.7700 -0.7860 range that has been in play for the past two weeks now. Support at 0.7700 seems solid so far, and a test down there in the middle of the week was short lived. The slow recovery off that level was given a helping hand last night in the wake of the BOE and ECB rate announcements. Selling of both those currencies against buying of NZD saw it trade up to test resistance at 0.7860 against the USD. That has so far capped the topside, and I would expect it to continue to do so until the release of US employment figures tonight. That data has the potential to break the currency out of its recent range and dictate the direction heading into next week. Domestically, there is a little more to focus on next week with business confidence and manufacturing index set for release.
The current interbank midrate is:    NZDUSD 0.7816

The interbank range this week has been:    NZDUSD 0.7716 - 0.7858
Tuesday 2nd July 3:00PM (NZT)
The recent volatility continued for this pair throughout the last week of trade. However, whilst the pressure on the NZ dollar remains, the pair looks to have established a base for the time being. The support around the .7700 level held through several tests last week. This week sees little in the way of NZ economic news due for release. The focus will come entirely from the US lead, with the focus on Friday’s employment report. A weaker employment component of the overnight US manufacturing numbers highlights the importance of this number. Expect further consolidation within the recent range ahead of this important report.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
NZD/USD 0.7801 0.7680 0.7860 0.7716 - 0.7844

Friday 28th June 3:15PM (NZT) - Update
So far this week the New Zealand dollar has managed to slowly recover some of the lost ground against the USD. It certainly hasn’t been spectacular and there isn’t a lot of momentum in the move but the currency is grinding higher. The week’s high of 0.7861 came on the back of USD selling after their GDP data was revised down. However that spike higher was very short lived with the NZD falling 100 points from that high within hours. Since then we’ve seen relatively quiet trade with a small upside bias. The lows of the week, and of this down cycle, seem unlikely to be severely tested again in the near term, with relentless comments from Fed officials downplaying last week’s announcement. It seems the Fed was surprised by the market reaction and there now looks to be a coordinated effort to tell the market it got well ahead of itself. In light of this we could easily see further tests on the upside toward resistance around 0.7900.
The current interbank midrate is:    NZDUSD 0.7810

The interbank range this week has been:    NZDUSD 0.7685 - 0.7861
Tuesday 25th June 3:20PM (NZT)
After the sharp move lower on the back of the Fed announcement last week the New Zealand dollar has spent the past few days consolidating those losses. Sideways trade between 0.7700 and 0.7800 has contained much of the action. There was however a short lived dip to a new cycle low at 0.7685 last night. The NZD quickly recovered though to trade back around 0.7750. Talk from Fed officials that the markets have overreacted has done little to weaken the USD in general. The risks for the NZD are still on the downside as any potential strength should be capped at resistance around 0.7900. Along with NZ trade balance and business confidence this week there is plenty of US data to keep the market on its toes.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
NZD/USD 0.7745 0.7680 0.7880 0.7685 - 0.8052

Friday 21st June 3:45PM (NZT) - Update
This week was dominated by the US Fed meeting. The markets were nervous leading up to it, and rightly so. The New Zealand dollar opened the week near resistance around 0.8100 but having failed around that level a number of times it pulled back to trade below 0.8000. Heading into the Fed announcement the NZD was back at 0.8050 but after Bernanke signalled tapering is likely in the near future, the bottom fell out of it. Within minutes the NZD was below 0.7900 and in the hours that followed it traded down close to 0.7700. The currency wasn’t helped by GDP data out yesterday that came in below expectation and added to the selling pressure. It currently trades around 0.7760 with the risks all still very much on the downside. A target of 0.7450 over the coming weeks is very achievable. Any recovery in the NZD will run into resistance between 0.7850 - 0.7900.
The current interbank midrate is:    NZDUSD 0.7785

The interbank range this week has been:    NZDUSD 0.7714 - 0.8110
Tuesday 18th June 3:30PM (NZT)
The recovery in the New Zealand dollar over the past week has hit a ceiling around the 0.8100 level. Three times in as many days the currency has been rejected from there. Last night the NZD fell over 100 points as the USD made gains across the board on the back of newspaper article suggesting the Fed will signal a start to tapering assets purchases at this week’s meeting. This shows how nervous the markets are at the moment and unfortunately the rest of the week could see more of the same. Key domestic releases this week that could impact the currency are the current account and GDP figures.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
NZD/USD 0.7990 0.7920 0.8120 0.7761 - 0.8110

Friday 14th June 3:15PM (NZT) - Update
The first half of this week saw the New Zealand dollar remain under pressure as a strong USD and heavy AUD both took their toll. The interbank low of 0.7761 traded early on Wednesday morning. Since then however we have seen a decent recovery take place. There was some small selling after the RBNZ statement on Thursday, but that was overwhelmed by a broad turnaround in the USD, and the NZD has rallied strongly into Friday. The 350 point range on the week is clear evidence of the pickup in volatility, seen across all markets. Resistance just above 0.8100 has capped the move so far, but if that gives way then 0.8170 is the next target. Downside support now comes in around 0.8010. Next week’s Fed meeting is going to be key and expectations ahead of that will continue to drive markets.
The current interbank midrate is:    NZDUSD 0.8060

The interbank range this week has been:    NZDUSD 0.7761 - 0.8110
Tuesday 11th June 3:20PM (NZT)
Better than expected US employment numbers on Friday saw an increased demand for USD’s and as a result the NZD suffered closing the week on its lows. Monday saw lighter trading conditions but a heavy AUD helped to drag the NZD to fresh lows of 0.7837. A small recovery from there eventuated and the pair traded back above 0.7900, but has turned south again. Whilst the pair trades under key resistance around 0.8000, the downside is still the focus. If support at 0.7815 gives way we can expect further weakness. A move back above 0.8000 would be the first signal that the downside action is done for now and a broader correction higher could be underway. In focus this week is the RBNZ rate decision, although it shouldn’t hold any major surprises with rates expected to remain unchanged.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
NZD/USD 0.7878 0.7815 0.8015 0.7837 - 0.8103

Friday 7th June 5:15PM (NZT) - Update
The NZD has had a bumpy ride this week thanks to offshore factors. The week’s highs were touched early Tuesday morning after a surprisingly weak reading from the US manufacturing sector. That strength was short lived as a very heavy AUD and soft global stocks weighed the currency down to trade a low of 0.7903 yesterday. Since then we have seen a perfect example of nervous and volatile markets. Rumours last night of a massive USD sell order saw liquidity quickly disappear and the NZD spike up from around 0.7940 to trade near 0.8100 before falling back under 0.8000. We have been expecting a pickup in volatility and this certainly shows it’s arrived. We can expect more wild swings in weeks to come as the markets factor in a reduction in US Fed asset purchases. Working limit orders in these types of markets is a great way to take advantage of moves like we saw last night. Look for more nervous trade ahead of US employment data tonight.
The current interbank midrate is:    NZDUSD 0.7965

The interbank range this week has been:    NZDUSD 0.7903 - 0.8117
Tuesday 4th June 4:50PM (NZT)
The NZD spent most of last week holding above 0.8000 in sideways trade. Late on Friday though, that level gave way on the back of a strong reading in US consumer confidence. The NZD moved sharply down to just below 0.7950. With Monday a holiday here in NZ trade was quiet to start the week. However, last night’s very soft reading on manufacturing in the US has seen a quick reversal fortunes for the NZD. This saw it snap back above 0.8000 to trade just under 0.8100. There is little in the way of domestic data this week so the market will be taking its lead from offshore events. The most notable of these will be US employment data set for release on Friday. That will be the key for near term direction.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
NZD/USD 0.8057 0.8000 0.8200 0.7947 - 0.8136

Friday 31st May 2:25PM (NZT) - Update
The NZD has seen some choppy price action this week, but has failed to make fresh lows against the USD. What we have seen is a pause in the recent broad US strength.
As a result the NZD has traded sideways above 0.8000. Moves up toward 0.8150 have been unsustainable, but on the flip side, we’ve only seen one brief test of the 0.8000 level. Aside from that the 0.8050 has provided a floor for most of the week. Look for 0.8000 to hold on the downside for now as the market continues to consolidate. There is plenty of US data out next week to provide a fresh lead, the most important of which will be employment data on Friday. If 0.8160 can be overcome on the topside, the move should then extend to the next resistance at 0.8240.
The current interbank midrate is:    NZDUSD 0.8090

The interbank range this week has been:    NZDUSD 0.8005 - 0.8163
Tuesday 28th May 4:50PM (NZT)
With the US and UK both on holiday Monday, the market has been very subdued since Friday. The NZD has kept a tight range trading just below 0.8100. Recent volatility suggests this period of calm won’t last long though. The NZD has so far held above the psychological level of 0.8000, but if more US strength is seen this week, then that level will come under pressure. The weak AUD is also helping to drag the NZD lower. Any recovery in the currency will have to overcome resistance around 0.8160 to take the immediate focus off the downside.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
NZD/USD .8084 .8000 .8200 .8016 - .8203

Friday 24th May 3:00PM (NZT) - Update
We have seen some good volatility in markets this week, and the NZDUSD is no exception. For most of the week the recent downtrend prevailed, as increased USD demand continued to drive the market. Some wild swings around FED chairman Bernanke’s testimony, saw the pair briefly trade above 0.8200, before heading lower again after he talked of scaling back quantitative easing (QE) measures over the coming months. The lows of the week traded last night, before profit taking and position squaring saw a healthy bounce back above 0.8100. That bounce was aided by the fact the US equity market held up well. This was in the face of Japanese losses, and therefore ‘risk aversion’ trades were unwound. It seems likely that we are in for a period of increased volatility ahead, with US data of even more importance than usual. Working limit orders at desired levels is a good way to take advantage of the increased volatility.
The current interbank midrate is:    NZDUSD .8095

The interbank range this week has been:    NZDUSD .8016 - .8203
Tuesday 21st May 3:50PM (NZT)
Offshore factors have been driving the NZD lately, with little in the way of domestic economic news to be of any impact. Broad USD strength has been the story of the past couple of weeks. After such a strong run it’s not surprising to see a small corrective pullback. And this is what has eventuated over the last 24 hours. The NZ dollar closed last week near its recent lows around 0.8060, but recovered off those lows yesterday as the USD gave back some ground across the board. The bounce from the lows has so far reached 0.8170, and there is little in way of upside resistance until 0.8260. The focus this week will remain on the US, with the Fed monetary policy meeting minutes set for release along with a testimony by Bernanke on the economic outlook. Any major signals from him with regard to tapering off quantitative easing will see renewed demand for USD.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
NZD/USD .8182 .8060 .8260 .8064 - .8296

Friday 17th May 4:20PM (NZT) - Update
The NZD has stayed on the back foot versus the USD this week, as broad USD strength continues to dominate the market. A bout of NZD buying after the NZ budget saw it recover somewhat, and it traded as high as 0.8264. But when a Fed official last night started talking about tapering off their quantitative easing programme, there was renewed demand for USD. This saw seen the currency trade back down to support around 0.8150. The NZD seemed to be trying to build a base at that level, but in the last few hours a wave of selling from US investment banks  has pushed it through this level, and triggered a sharp move lower. It has now traded below 0.8100 and a test of support at 0.8050 looks to be on the cards. As we are coming to the end of the week there is potential for bounce, as those who bought USD earlier look to book profits, but there is little sign of that so far.
The current interbank midrate is:    NZDUSD .8103

The interbank range this week has been:    NZDUSD .8090 - .8375
Tuesday 14th May 3:15PM (NZT)
The NZD has seen a decent range against the USD the past week, falling from 0.8520 all the way to a recent low of 0.8230. The move has been driven by broad US dollar demand, and comes in the face of the strong NZ employment numbers. Softer than expected retail sales this morning has kept the pressure on the currency. Initial downside support comes in around 0.8160, and could well be tested this week if the USD strength across the board continues. The topside is protected by resistance around 0.8360. Domestic data out over the coming days will probably have limited impact as offshore forces drive this pair in the near term.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
NZD/USD .8284 .8160 .8360 .8237 - .8520

Friday 10th May 2:20PM (NZT) - Update
It has been an interesting week for this pair, with some volatile trade and a decent range. After touching 0.8550 on Monday, the currency drifted lower into the middle of the week and the release of the financial stability report by the Reserve Bank. There was some small selling pressure as the report talked of an ‘overvalued’ NZD, but it was governor Wheeler’s talk of direct intervention that really got things going. The currency got pushed lower by the better part of 1 cent to trade just below 0.8360 before recovering a little. Sideways trade between 0.8360 and 0.8400 followed as the market shifted it’s focus to Thursdays employment numbers. A very strong reading, aided in part by demand for workers to help with the rebuild of Christchurch, saw the NZD dramatically recover all of it’s previous losses. And just to underpin the recovery, Australia printed solid employment numbers as well, which helped drag the currency higher again. It looked like that would probably be it for the week in terms of action, with the NZD settling into a range of 0.8440 -0.8480. But early this morning in late New York trade the USDJPY broke above key psychological resistance at 100.00. This triggered waves of USD buying against most other currencies. This US dollar demand saw the NZD back under pressure, making a fresh low on the week at 0.8348. It’s staged a small recovery from that low, but it looks like we can continue to expect some volatile price action. Its hard to imagine next week’s main economic releases, being house sales and retail sales, creating too much in the way of downside action for the currency. Support around 0.8340 should put a floor under any weakness, with the focus shifting back to the topside.
The current interbank midrate is:    NZDUSD .8381

The interbank range this week has been:    NZDUSD .8348 - .8555
Tuesday 7th May 5:15PM (NZT)
The NZD is treading water within the broad 0.8465 - 0.8575 range of the last two weeks. Offshore factors have been driving it back and forth within that range, and this theme will continue this week ahead of NZ employment data on Thursday. The employment number offers the biggest risk for the NZD this week. A very soft number could easily catch the investor market holding too many NZ dollars , and see a quick move down to 0.8400 initially. Below 0.8400 and the way opens up for a much bigger correction towards 0.8200. Expect plenty of buyers looking to pick the bottom of any pullback though, as the medium term outlook for the Kiwi remains firm relative to most other currencies.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
NZD/USD 0.8493 0.8400 0.8580 0.8469 - 0.8579

Friday 3rd May 2:20PM (NZT) - Update
The NZD started the week on a firm note and made solid early gains testing just above 0.8575 on a number of occasions. It failed to gain a footing above there though, and quickly lost ground on the back of a weaker dairy auction. Also a drag was a very heavy AUD that came under a lot of pressure against the GBP, EUR and JPY. There is some support for the NZD around 0.8460 which has contained the downside for now. A break low this level could see a move towards 0.8380 where more buyers should emerge. US employment data tonight has the potential to at some volatility while the domestic focus for next week will be 1st quarter employment numbers.
The current interbank midrate is:    NZDUSD .8505

The interbank range this week has been:    NZDUSD .8469 -.8579
Tuesday 30th April 4:15PM (NZT)
Broad based support for the NZD continues with the currency making a move above resistance at 0.8550 in the last 24 hours. If it can consolidate these gains it will open the way for a retest of recent highs at 0.8648, although a lot of that will depend on key releases out of the US later in the week. The positive reaction after the RBNZ policy statement last week has been underpinned by an increase in the cost of the Christchurch rebuild and the resulting reinsurance flows. So the NZD starts this week on a firm footing, and with the upside very much in focus. Expect dips to find support ahead of FED’s monetary policy announcement (Wednesday) and US employment data (Friday), which will set the tone heading into the following week.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
NZD/USD .8557 .8460 .8660 .8368 - .8569

Friday 26th April 4:45PM (NZT) - Update
The NZ dollar started off with an air of vulnerability this week. However, following the seemingly benign RBNZ monetary policy announcement the demand for the NZ dollar has materially increased. So far the resistance at .8550 has managed to curb further appreciation, but this level does seem likely to come under some pressure. The focus from here turns to the US advanced 1st quarter GDP number later on today, with the market expecting a 3.1% rise in activity for the quarter. Amongst a busy next week in the US, The FED's monetary policy statement on Wednesday provides focus ahead of Friday's employment numbers. If the general market sentiment remains positive, expect the demand for NZ dollars to remain in place.

The current interbank midrate is:    NZDUSD .8530

The interbank range this week has been:    NZDUSD .8369 - .8550
Tuesday 23rd April 6:15PM (NZT)
This pair has traded in a relatively contained range over the last week, albeit with a slight bias to the downside for the for the NZ dollar. The weak global growth data is subtly undermining demand for so called growth assets like the NZ dollar via weak commodity prices. With today’s weaker than expected Chinese manufacturing data, expect this to remain a theme in the short term. Tempering moves to the down will be on-going demand for higher yielding interest rates that NZ offers. These opposing forces point towards the continuation of the familiar range trading trend for this pair.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
NZD/USD .8391 .8350 .8550 .8388 - .8505

Friday 19th April 4:02PM (NZT) - Update
After bouncing off the lows seen early on Tuesday, this pair has traded in a relatively contained range. In the absence of local data of impact, demand for the NZ dollar has been driven predominantly by the offshore lead. Wider market risk aversion has tempered any real chances of appreciation and most of the week has been spent moving sideways in often direction-less trade. The RBNZ monetary policy statement next Wednesday will provide the primary focus for this pair ahead of the US GDP numbers next Friday. Further range trading can be expected ahead of these announcements.
The current interbank midrate is:    NZDUSD .8433

The interbank range this week has been:    NZDUSD .8387 - .8577
Tuesday 16th April 4:42PM (NZT)
Up until the offshore session on Friday last week the NZ dollar had outperformed the US dollar. However, in the opening sessions of this week we have seen a reversing of much of the NZD appreciation. The release of weak US and Chinese economic data, coupled with the disturbing terror events in Boston, has increased the safe haven demand for the US dollar. The pair has now consolidated off the lows set this morning, and the immediate direction remains unclear. Certainly events in the US will continue to dominate headlines in the short term. In any event the pair now looks to be at more comfortable levels than it was last week. Consolidation in the precious metals markets will stabilise the FX markets after yesterday's dramatic pull back in prices. If the metals pricing remains vulnerable, the demand for the US dollar will continue to increase and keep the NZD under subsequent pressure.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
NZD/USD .8478 .8350 .8550 .8387 - .8669

Friday 12th April 2:02PM (NZT) - Update
This week has seen the NZ dollar push higher against the US dollar without respite. As we have seen periodically over the last couple of years, seemingly self fulfilling momentum can drive NZ dollar demand. Offshore demand for NZ interest rates, re-insurance flows for Christchurch earthquake pay outs and improved sentiment all will have played a part in this move. Resistance levels have been burst through in the process, and it begs the question of how much further this move can extend. Targeting levels is sound practice in markets like this for those looking to transfers funds. If previous moves such as these are any guide, the gained ground can be easily given back by the NZ dollar and trying to predict turning points can often prove futile. The US data later today will provide interest to finish the week. Any push back higher in US interest rates would see renewed demand for US dollars, and have a potential temper the demand for the NZD.
The current interbank midrate is:    NZDUSD .8630

The interbank range this week has been:    NZDUSD .8408 - .8669
Tuesday 9th April 4:51PM (NZT)
This pair has consolidated through topside resistance levels over the last week. While the wider market lead has been mixed, the latent demand for the NZ dollar has remained in place. The US dollar has seen pressure as longer term US interest rates moved lower alongside the weak US economic data. Expect further headway to be harder fought for the NZ dollar, as the pair looks to establish a new range around the current elevated levels. With the countering factors of lower levels of expected global economic activity, and the ongoing, and increased levels of central bank intervention, range trading can be expected for this pair in the short term at least.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
NZD/USD .8487 .8350 .8550 .8368 - .8467

Friday 5th April 4:28PM (NZT) - Update
This week has seen this pair trade with choppy price action within a reasonably contained range. The increasingly vulnerable resistance at .8400 finally was broken as large sell GBP buy NZD flows coupled with record dairy prices to push the NZD higher across the board. Since then the NZD has been a bystander as wider market issues have dominated. This pair remains at elevated levels ahead of what will be an interesting US employment number later today. Whilst the NZD looks elevated, it seems unlikely that we will see any material weakness in the short term. Expect to see the US economic news dominate this pair next week, with limited NZ data on offer once again.
The current interbank midrate is:    NZDUSD .8403

The interbank range this week has been:    NZDUSD .8354 - .8446
Tuesday 2th April 4:00PM (NZT)
This pair has traded a relatively tight range throughout the Easter period. Resistance at .8350 was finally ground down, and further resistance at .8400 has curbed further appreciation for the NZ dollar for the time being at least. In the absence of any economic news in NZ this week, expect the lead to come from developments in the US. The primary focus for the week being Friday's US employment numbers. Current levels offer relatively good value buying of US dollars with NZD. However, the longer the pair remains close to resistance at .8400, the more vulnerable that resistance will be.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
NZD/USD .8389 .8200 .8400 .8343 - .8394

Tuesday 26th March 4:10PM (NZT)
The NZ dollar saw some strong appreciation over the US dollar last week. Strong Fonterra GDT auction results, the bonanza NZ GDP and a higher Australian dollar, all helped the NZ dollar appreciate. The pair remains stalled around .8350 resistance. This level is the upper end of the recent range and whether or not the pair can consolidate through this level will dictate direction in the short term. Current levels offer good value buying of US dollars from a risk reward perspective. With only the ANZ business confidence survey in NZ this week, the lead will likely come from the US influence. Durable good sales, consumer confidence, and home sales numbers will provide focus. If resistance at .8350 does break, further appreciation from current levels should prove hard fought for the NZ dollar.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
NZD/USD .8342 .8150 .8350 .8218 - .8367

Friday 22nd March February 4:15PM (NZT) - Update
This pair has been contained by its recent month long .8150 - .8350 range this week. There was a distinct lack of volatility ahead of yesterday’s strong NZ GDP number. The price action was a little strange, as after an initiate lunge higher the pair consolidated at levels just 20pts higher than prior to the release. The makeup of the GDP number points towards a bit of an aberration and the Australasian market did not get too enthused. However, coupled with solid Chinese manufacturing numbers, and the survival of Australian PM Gillard in a leadership vote, the Australasian pairs stormed higher in the London session overnight to set the weeks highs. Expect resistance above current levels to temper further appreciation from the NZD in the short term at least, with the majority of next week's focus coming from news in the US.
The current interbank midrate is:    NZDUSD .8320

The interbank range this week has been:    NZDUSD .8191 - .8340
Tuesday 19th March 3:58PM (NZT)
This pair remains trapped within its recent .8150 - .8350 range. The NZD saw increased pressure following the RBNZ monetary policy statement, but this pressure could not be sustained as the USD dollar gave up some of its recently gained ground across the board. This week is likely to see continued price action within the recent range. The NZ GDP numbers provide an obvious domestic focus in NZ on Thursday. In the US, the FED's monetary policy announcement will take centre stage on Wednesday. Expect the FED to maintain their "easy money" rhetoric in what will likely be an effort to curb any further USD appreciation in the short term at least. The strong performance of the AUD will be of support to the NZ dollar if it continues to consolidate at the current higher levels.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
NZD/USD .8247 .8150 .8350 .8170 - .8280

Friday 15th March February 4:15PM (NZT) - Update
This pair remains well contained by its recent and increasingly familiar .8150 -.8350 range. The NZD saw increased pressure following the RBNZ monetary policy statement. However, the pair has recouped a good portion of its losses as USD demand has continued to show increasing fatigue. The broad based USD pull back has cushioned what could have been a more substantial pull back for this pair. Expect the current range to contain the price action in the short term. With longer term US interest rates establishing themselves a new higher levels, expect further NZD appreciation to be harder fought in the coming week.
The current interbank midrate is:    NZDUSD .8208

The interbank range this week has been:    NZDUSD .8171 - .8286
Monday 11th March 4:01PM (NZT)
This pair saw interesting price action last week. The NZD saw increased demand throughout the belly of the week following positive news offshore and the release of the latest GDT auction results. However, in the approach to Friday's employment numbers, the demand for US dollars returned and then accelerated as the strong US employment market numbers came to light. This week has started with pressure on the NZD continuing, and the target will be support at .8150, if the increased USD demand persists. Thursdays RBNZ news will dominate the domestic focus, but expect limited impact from the likely unchanged policy decision. The US focus comes from monthly retail sales, inflation and consumer sentiment numbers. If the support level holds, expect further range trading in the short term, albeit with a bias towards the strengthening of the US dollar.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
NZD/USD .8222 .8150 .8350 .8194 - .8337

Friday 8th March February 4:00PM (NZT) - Update
After seeing initial pressure from the resurgent US dollar this week, the NZD has pared its losses and the pair has consolidated at what seem to be increasingly comfortable levels. Certainly the GDT auction price jump in dairy prices came to the aid of the NZD, and coupled with the record high equity market prices has provided support. The US dollar does seem to have seen increasing latent demand in the last couple of weeks, and this should curb any material upside for the NZD. These factors point towards a continuation of the recent range trading in the coming sessions. US employment numbers later on today provide an important focus for the short term.
The current interbank midrate is:    NZDUSD .8273

The interbank range this week has been:    NZDUSD .8194 - .8337
Tuesday 5th March 4:53PM (NZT)
The NZD has seen periods of further pressure from the US dollar. However, with the FED rhetoric pointing towards ongoing stimulus beyond the end of 2013, any material weakening of the NZ dollar maybe some time off yet. Support at .8250 finally gave way, but the pair has not been able to consolidate into a lower range. The wider .8100 - .8500 range that has been seen for the last 6 months or so remains in place. Expect the AUD to provide the lead in the coming week ahead of next Thursday's RBNZ monetary policy statement. In the absence of any surprises from the various central bank meetings this week, the .8150 - .8350 range should contain the week's price action.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
NZD/USD .8266 .8150 .8350 .8194 - .8347

Friday 1st March February 4:33PM (NZT) - Update
The NZ dollar has seen renewed pressure from the US dollar this week. The NZD was pushed to its lowest levels in over a month as numerous factors weighed against it. Increased risk aversion in the wider market, increasing concerns about the dry conditions in the North Island and comments from credit rating agency S&P have outweighed strong business confidence numbers to push the NZD lower. Consolidation through the support at .8250 would open up the way for another leg lower, and this would most likely be coupled with wider market US dollar demand. The focus is entirely in the US next week, in the absence of any scheduled news in NZ.
The current interbank midrate is:                NZDUSD .8268

The interbank range this week has been:    NZDUSD .8232 - .8413
Tuesday 26th February 3:53PM (NZT)
After a brief attempt through resistance at .8450 last week, the NZD saw renewed pressure from the US dollar. This came as comments from RBNZ Governor Wheeler about the high level of the NZ dollar rattled NZD investor confidence. However, the pull bank has not been sharp, but the pair looks more comfortable than it did as it approached .8500. Wider market sentiment remains soft as the Italian elections undermines the markets confidence. Further investigations towards the lower end of the range cannot be ruled out in the current environment. Expect initial support around the current levels, ahead of more robust support at the .8250 level.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
NZD/USD .8344 .8250 .8450 .8321 - .8485

Friday 22nd February 4:36PM (NZT)- Update
It has been an interesting week for this pair. The NZD has failed to consolidate its break through resistance at .8450, and has spent most of the week under some pressure from the US dollar. Various factors are at play, but the timely "verbal intervention" from RBNZ Governor Wheeler certainly provided the most impetus for the NZD weakness. General market risk aversion, and reasonably strong US data have ensured the USD took back some of it recently taken ground. The pair now sees itself back in somewhat familiar territory, and further out performance by the USD should prove harder fought from the current levels.

The current interbank midrate is:    NZDUSD .8374

The interbank range this week has been:    NZDUSD .8321 - .8515
Tuesday 19th February 3:50PM (NZT)
The NZ dollar broke through to make brief 18 months highs against the US dollar last week. At times the demand for the NZD was significant, especially following the materially stronger than expected 4th quarter NZ retail sales numbers. However, the economic data was buoyant in the US also, and with longer term interest rates consolidating at higher levels, the US dollar ground back to push the NZD back into more familiar territory to finish the week. This week sees the NZD remain towards the upper end of recent ranges. Tomorrow’s speech from RBNZ Governor Wheeler provides the highlight for the week in NZ. In the US the FED's meeting minutes will garner attention, alongside the usual host of other releases. Potentially this pair could become a little range bound around the current levels, with the NZD likely to find further gains through last week's highs more hard fought than its previous appreciation.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
NZD/USD .8420 .8330 .8530 .8337 - .8530

Friday 15th February 6:36PM (NZT)- Update
It has been another week of NZ dollar appreciation over the USD dollar. With an absence of top tier economic data until today, and only negligible pullbacks throughout the week, the demand for NZ dollars has been pretty constant. Today's strong NZ retail sales numbers provided a further boost to the NZD value. Given the pair looks to be consolidating through resistance levels around .8450, further appreciation can not be ruled out in the short term. Given the elevated levels levels at which the pair now finds itself, the momentum will likely slow in the coming sessions.
 
The current interbank midrate : NZDUSD .8508
 
The interbank range this week has been: NZDUSD .8317 - .8530

Tuesday 12th February 5:50PM (NZT)
Last week saw the pair continue to trade within it's recently familiar  .8300 - .85000 range. The NZD did look vulnerable for most of the week, and the lows were seen following the weak NZ employment numbers. However, as has been the theme so far in 2013, the NZD saw latent demand emerge into the softness and this has again pushed the pair back from the .8300 support. This level remains the target in the near term, especially with lower demand for AUD and EUR weighing on the NZD. 
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
NZD/USD .8353 .8300 .8500 .8300 - .8460

Friday 5th February 6:10PM (NZT)-UPDATE
1:10 PM (NZT) It has been an interesting week so far for this pair. The start of the week saw the NZD again in hot demand. The pair pushed resistance levels between .8450-.8490 and the resistance finally curbed the NZD appreciation. Yesterday’s horrible NZ employment numbers definitely started a reversal of fortunes. The momentum was added to by sobering Australian employment numbers, and pressure on the EURO in the offshore session. Support at the .8300 level has held for now, and profit taking looks to have lifted the NZD back from the mornings lows. The US trade balance later on today provides the final domestic focus for the pair this week. Next week sees the focus come from the respective US and NZ retail sales numbers, as well as the latest consumer sentiment data in the States. In the short term the pair remains in somewhat familiar territory, and the pair looks more comfortable have pulled back from the elevated highs earlier in the week. The support around the .8300 level and just below remains the near term target should further NZD weakness be seen.
 
The current interbank midrate is:                                                            NZDUSD .8340 
                                                                                         
The interbank range so far this week to date has been:                 NZDUSD .8300 - .8485
Tuesday 5th February 6:10PM (NZT)
Last week’s price action for this pair was curious to say the least. The NZ dollar saw some decent pressure in the approach to the RBNZ monetary policy announcement. To my mind the statement accompanying the expected unchanged decision was unsurprising and benign. However, the subsequent reaction, especially in offshore markets was anything but benign. The demand for the NZ dollar was significant, and was only slowed somewhat at the resistance between .8450 and .8500. So again the pair is at levels that offer good value buying of USD with NZ dollars. Of note has been the move high in US longer term interest rates. Overtime this should translate to increased demand for US dollars.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
NZD/USD .8420 .8300 .8500 .8303 - .8487

Friday 1st February 12:15PM (NZT)
It has been an interesting, and somewhat surprising week for this pair. The NZD (along with the AUD) has seen periods of increased weakness, and especially for the NZD, these came ahead of the RBNZ monetary policy announcement. There appeared to be little of surprise in the RBNZ statement accompanying the unchanged monetary policy decision. The increased demand seen following the statement has been sharp to say the least. Chatter in offshore markets had suggested there was a risk of an easing from the RBNZ, and this would explain the knee jerk reaction to the balanced statement. There remains little chance of a change to the record low 2.50% cash rate in NZ in 2013. The US influence has not impacted materially so far this week. The employment numbers later on today could well chance this and provide the primary focus in the short term. Today’s seemingly benign speech from RBNZ Governor Wheeler has seen further increased demand for the NZD and the pair is pushing the week’s highs as it approached the resistance at .8450. It appears the speech’s lack of reference to the “overvalued” NZD was the impetus for the increased demand. Current levels offer good value buying of US dollars with NZD.
 
The current interbank midrate is:                                                             NZDUSD .8422 
                                                                                         
The interbank range so far this week to date has been:                 NZDUSD .8284 - .8423
Tuesday 29th January 4:55PM (NZT)
This pair continues to trade within a fair contained range. The inability of the pair to break through the resistance at .8450 exposes some vulnerability of the NZ dollar in the current environment. The improving global sentiment is being led by improving stability in Europe. The corresponding increase in longer end interest rates in the larger developed nations should start to undermine NZ dollar demand. In the near term the central bank focus in the US and NZ will provide the primary focus. No changes are expected from either central bank, but their rhetoric will be closely monitored. Expect the .8250 - .8450 range trading to continue this week, but the US GDP and employment numbers add a little to the potential for volatility.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
NZD/USD .8360 .8250 .8450 .8284 - .8446

Friday 25th January 12:05PM (NZT)-UPDATE
This pair continues to be contained by relatively tight weekly ranges. The NZD undoubtedly sees latent demand on any period of weakness and this remains attributable to the relative high levels of yields from the NZ government bonds. However, with the equity markets at 5-6 year highs, the inability of the NZD to forge new ground through the .8450 resistance is interesting. The momentum has waned and next week will likely prove crucial to direction in the short term. The RBNZ monetary policy announcement next week provides the local focus , but the bulk of the direction will come from the flora of economic data due for release in the US. With the AUD looking vulnerable , there appears to bias to the downside from current levels, but do not expect a sharp correction lower in the short term.
 
The current interbank midrate is:                                                  NZDUSD .8380 
                                                                                         
The interbank range so far this week to date has been:                 NZDUSD .8341 - .8440

Tuesday 22nd January 3:55PM (NZT)
This pair remains stuck in a relatively tight range. The lower than expected inflation number last week saw the NZD sell off to the lows before recovering and consolidating around current levels. The fact that stock markets have risen to fresh five year highs and the NZ dollar is struggling to forge higher ground, points toward waning momentum and increasing odds of a corrective move lower. In an absence of local New Zealand economic news this week, the focus will come from the US. Housing numbers later today, and on Friday provide the focus as we build into next week and the respective central bank monetary policy announcements.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
NZD/USD .8370 .8250 .8450 .8341 - .8431

Tuesday 15th January 4:55PM (NZT)
The NZD has seen periods of strong demand against the USD since the start of 2013. So far the resistance at .8450 has held, but the longer the pair remains at elevated levels the more pressure will build on that resistance. Today’s NZIER quarterly survey again boosted sentiment for the NZ dollar and the next 24 hours will be interesting for the short term direction of this pair. NZ inflation numbers on Friday should be of limited impact. Given the wider markets surprisingly positive start to the year, current levels may well prove to have offered good value buying of USD over time.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
NZD/USD .8408 .8250 .8450 .8342 - .8451

Friday 21st December 2012 12:10PM (NZT) -Update
As anticipated, the NZ dollar was unable to maintain its upward momentum this week. It large rise over the last couple of weeks looked to be “flow” driven and once that demand was satisfied the US dollar has seen demand re-emerge , and it has steadily taken ground back from the NZD. The Q3 NZ GDP number has helped ease the NZD lower and the stronger than expected US data from overnight should keep the pressure on. The next couple of weeks will likely see varied price action with holiday market conditions predominating. Obviously the fiscal negotiations in the US are at a point where a solution must surface in the next week. These talks will remain the focus for the remainder of 2012. Current levels offer good value buying of US dollars with NZD.
 
The current interbank midrate is:                                                            NZDUSD .8340 
                                                                                         
The interbank range so far this week to date has been:                 NZDUSD .8325 - .8469
Tuesday 18th December 2012 5:10PM (NZT)
Once the pair broke through resistance at .8350 early last week, the way was eased for sharp appreciation higher towards resistance at .8480. However the momentum has now waned, and there has been a period of consolidation through the last few sessions. The fiscal concerns in the US have all but passed now as negotiations have seemed easier in the last few days. The 3rd quarter GDP number in NZ on Thursday also may provide a reminder of the softness of the economy through that period. Expect further gains from current levels to prove far harder fought than previous ground. US bond yields ( bond interest rates) are also moving higher in the last few days and this should garner support for the US dollar over time.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
NZD/USD .8442 .8280 .8480 .8345 - .8469

Tuesday 11th December 2012 3:45PM (NZT)
The NZ dollar outperformed the US dollar last week. Following the balanced RBNZ monetary policy statement, investors positioned for a statement with an interest rate easing bias scrambled to cover their “sold NZD” positions. This boosted demand and saw the pair break the initial resistance at .8250 and flirt with the close by .8350 level. This .8350 remains the key level for immediate direction. A break of this level would indicate a continuation of the NZ dollar appreciation. Whatever the eventuality, further gains for the NZ dollar should be harder fought from the current levels. Uncertainty remains high in the wider market, but the prospect of further US FED policy accommodation is subduing US dollar demand for the time being.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
NZD/USD .8346 .8150 .8350 .8208 - .8351

Monday 3rd December 2012 4:52PM (NZT)
This pair saw a somewhat contained range again last week. A mixture of positive and negative news meaning that the opposing moves provided somewhat direction less trade. With the prospect of the RBNZ meeting on Thursday, and the likelihood of an interest rate cut from the RBA, expect topside moves to be limited for the NZ dollar. Last week’s break of resistance at .8250 was brief, and consolidation through this level would be required to open up the way for a clear move higher. A lack of progress on the fiscal talks in the US will favour the US dollar this week, and this trend could accelerate the longer the negotiations are forced to go on. The RBNZ are unlikely to ease the cash rate on Thursday, but the statement will be closely watched. Expect much of the lead to come from the performance of the AUD this week.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
NZD/USD .8201 .8050 .8250 .8167 - .8267

Tuesday 27th November 2012 4:42PM (NZT)
The NZDUSD pair remains in what has become very familiar territory. Much of last week saw moribund trade as the markets stagnated while waiting for news on the Greek debt deal, and progress on the fiscal negotiations in the US. The offshore session on Friday provided the action, when risk aversion was swept aside and the NZD saw strong demand. However, after touching the resistance at .8250 the momentum was lost. As yet, not even the Greek debt deal announcement has been enough to pressure this resistance level, but if demand lifts for the EURO, the NZD will likely have another swing up towards this resistance. With only NZ business confidence numbers of domestic focus this week, expect the lead to come from the US fiscal developments, and the GDP number on Thursday in the US.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
NZD/USD .8225 .8050 .8250 .8104 - .8250

Tuesday 20th November 2012 3:56 PM (NZT)
The NZ dollar has had a mixed last week against the USD. The pressure really came on following the disastrous 3rd quarter NZ retail sales number. However, the recovery in sentiment in the offshore session on Friday has seen some scrambling to cover sold NZD positions. This increased NZ dollar demand has pushed the pair back into familiar territory. Yesterday’s demonstrably stronger October Services number in a survey from the BNZ illustrates that the Q3 weakness may just have been a speed bump in the economic recovery. There is little of material economic data for the remainder of this week in NZ, but tomorrow’s Global Dairy Trade auction results will be closely watched. These auction results affect international investor demand for New Zealand dollars, and can therefore affect price action in the short term. Assuming that the positive rhetoric on the US fiscal situation can be backed up in concrete progress towards a deal (be sceptical), the US dollar may see some further pressure in the short term. Expect the upper levels of the recent range between .8250 - .8300 to provide ample resistance should this current positive sentiment continue.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
NZD/USD .8182 .8050 .8250 .8049 - .8207

Tuesday 13th November 2012 4:55 PM (NZT)
Last week was an interesting one for this pair. Following the US election equity markets saw periods of intense pressure and this weighed on demand for the NZ dollar. But the defining moment for the week was the release of the horrible NZ employment numbers. These lead to a dramatic fall in demand for the NZD that pushed the pair below the support at .8150 for a time. However, with the situation in Europe looking a little more positive the wider market sentiment has picked the NZD off the lows for the time being. Expect further appreciation for the NZD to be hard fought this week, and for the next few. The US fiscal situation means risk aversion should be the sentiment default and this should underpin demand for the US dollar. Initial support will again come at .8150, and then further below at .8100.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
NZD/USD .8168 .8100 .8300 .8119 - .8309

Entries previous to this have been deleted as there are time sensitive and lose value as time progresses. Please refer to our charts page for price action on a historical basis. The chart page can be seen here : http://www.directfx.co.nz/CurrencyChart.html