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NZD to GBP Exchange Rate

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When converting New Zealand dollars (NZD) to Great British Pounds (GBP), or GBP to NZD, by exchanging via Direct FX, you will save a significant amount of money. Our wholesale currency exchange rates for money transfers, are significantly more competitive than bank foreign exchange rates. Being Australasian based, we specialise in knowing what drives NZD and GBP currency conversion rates.

NZD to GBP Overview:Because of close historical ties, the NZD to GBP exchange rate has always been closely watched. In recent times the NZD has outperformed the Pound Sterling to the surprise of many looking to convert GBP to NZD. Once the NZD GBP broke through heavy resistance at .4000 (GBP NZD support at 2.50), the way opened to a new range. With high migration between NZ and the UK and the money transfers that go with it, we have a strong focus and understanding of this exchange rate.
 
Historical Ranges: 1 year  5 years 10 years 
NZD/GBP .5250 - .6342 .3990 - .6342 .3318 - .6342
GBP/NZD 1.5767 -1.9047 1.5767 -2.5062 1.5767 – 3.0136

Current Official Cash Rates:
Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ): 1.75%         Bank of England (BoE): 0.25%

NZD GBP Weekly Updates:                                                                                Back to FX Updates
 

Tuesday 26th September 5:30pm(NZT)

The NZD is back at 0.5376 vs the UK Pound after 0.5435 on Friday after UK PM May’s Brexit speech proved a fizzer. There is still no clear direction but downside is the more favoured side, immediate support is at 0.5355.

  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
NZD/GBP 0.5369 0.5230 0.5530 0.5357 - 0.5456
GBP/NZD 1.8627 1.8083 1.9120 1.8328 - 1.8669

Friday 22nd September 4:00pm(NZT)
The New Zealand dollar has weakened over the last few days on this cross as better UK data provides the Pound some support. It is now at 0.5370, tonight's Brexit speech by May is major event risk as is the NZ election tomorrow. Hard to pick direction but next week should provide a clearer trend.
The current interbank midrate is:    NZDGBP 0.5364    GBPNZD 1.8644

The interbank range this week has been:    NZDGBP 0.5337 - 0.5456    GBPNZD 1.8328 - 1.8738
Friday 15th September 4:00pm(NZT)
The New Zealand dollar was knocked around badly by the UK Pound last night.  It is now at 0.5395 after a high of 0.5545 earlier in the week, with better UK data and BoE rate hike talk look for a test of support levels next week.
The current interbank midrate is:    NZDGBP 0.5394    GBPNZD 1.8539

The interbank range this week has been:    NZDGBP 0.5371 - 0.5583    GBPNZD 1.7911 - 1.8618
Tuesday 12th September 4:00pm(NZT)

The New Zealand dollar is now softer against the UK Pound down at 0.5502. UK CPI figures tonight have the potential for upside surprise which would test support. For now at least, the focus remain toward further NZD weakness.

  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
NZD/GBP 0.5483 0.5460 0.5600 0.5480 - 0.5583
GBP/NZD 1.8238 1.7857 1.8315 1.7911 - 1.8250

Friday 8th September 4:00pm(NZT)
After dropping to 0.5500 yesterday the New Zealand dollar is back around 0.5541 as the GBP continues under Brexit negotiation pressure. Look for 0.5500- 0.5560 range to hold heading into next week.
The current interbank midrate is:    NZDGBP 0.5545    GBPNZD 1.8034

The interbank range this week has been:    NZDGBP 0.5499 - 0.5578    GBPNZD 1.7926 - 1.8187
Tuesday 5th September 4:00pm(NZT)

The New Zealand dollar has traded in a narrow range against the UK Pound. It is now at 0.5545 as the NZD has been helped by the weaker GBP/USD on the back of Brexit negotiation issues. Softer NZD/USD will help to balance out ahead of elections should see 0.5500 later in the week.

  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
NZD/GBP 0.5540 0.5480 0.5670 0.5512 - 0.5631
GBP/NZD 1.8051 1.7637 1.8248 1.7759 - 1.8142

Friday 1st September 4:00pm(NZT)
The New Zealand dollar has continued to be soft against the UK Pound, now at 0.5549 and given the NZD/USD outlook we expect this cross to move back toward 0.5500 over next week. Key support around 0.5560 has been broken in recent sessions and this is a bearish signal. At this stage there is nothing to say the downtrend has run its course. The risks remain toward further weakness.
The current interbank midrate is:    NZDGBP 0.5541    GBPNZD 1.8049

The interbank range this week has been:    NZDGBP 0.5532 - 0.5641    GBPNZD 1.7728 - 1.8076
Tuesday 29th August 4:30pm(NZT)

The New Zealand dollar has continued its softer run against the UK Pound. It is now at 0.5598 after the GBP rally late last week. Brexit negotiations will prevent the GBP from racing away and we look for the existing range to hold for the next few days. There is support around the 0.5550 area and we expect that to contain any further weakness in the near term. Those looking to transfer GBP to NZD should take advantage of this current weakness.

  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
NZD/GBP 0.5583 0.5530 0.5670 0.5583 - 0.5692
GBP/NZD 1.7915 1.7637 1.8083 1.7568 - 1.7912

Friday 25th August 3:30pm(NZT)
The New Zealand dollar has weakened against the UK Pound and is now trading at 0.5628. It could have been lower but the GBP itself remains weak and that’s limited the cross rates decline. It has potential to drift lower to 0.5590 but given the softer GBP tone look for this level to hold over early next week.
The current interbank midrate is:    NZDGBP 0.5630    GBPNZD 1.7761

The interbank range this week has been:    NZDGBP 0.5620 - 0.5706    GBPNZD 1.0804 - 1.0971
Tuesday 22nd August 3:30pm(NZT)

The New Zealand dollar remains flat vs the UK Pound with little clear direction. It is now at 0.5682, so gradually grinding higher, although 0.5700 will prove a tough level to break.

  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
NZD/GBP 0.5678 0.5630 0.5755 0.5615 - 0.5706
GBP/NZD 1.7614 1.7377 1.7762 1.7525 - 1.7809

Friday 18th August 3:30pm(NZT)
The New Zealand dollar looks to have stabilized at higher levels around 0.5660 vs the UK Pound as softer UK data and ongoing Brexit concerns keep investors away from the GBP. It should see a push up to 0.5700 next week.
The current interbank midrate is:    NZDGBP 0.5650    GBPNZD 1.7700

The interbank range this week has been:    NZDGBP 0.5588 - 0.5683    GBPNZD 1.7597 - 1.7894
Tuesday 15th August 3:30pm(NZT)

The New Zealand dollar has posted some gains against the UK Pound. It is now at 0.5630 with weaker UK data providing NZD support. This week’s UK data dump has potential to set direction. NZD upside is favoured however and we look for 0.5650/70 later this week.

  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
NZD/GBP 0.5632 0.5600 0.5755 0.5587 - 0.5663
GBP/NZD 1.7757 1.7377 1.7857 1.7658 - 1.7900

Friday 11th August 3:00pm(NZT)
The NZD has held relatively well against the GBP helped by weaker UK data, but yesterday's RBNZ comments did the NZD no favours and the pair has fallen to the 0.5600 area. There is decent support around the 0.5560 area and if this was to break the next target would be 0.5500. Those with UK Pounds who are looking to convert back to New Zealand dollars should target any dips toward wholesale market support around 0.5560.
The current interbank midrate is:    NZDGBP 0.5590    GBPNZD 1.7890

The interbank range this week has been:    NZDGBP 0.5587 - 0.5691    GBPNZD 1.7571 - 1.7900
Tuesday 8th August 4:00pm(NZT)

The New Zealand dollar has held gains relatively well, helped by the weaker tone if the UK Pound. It is now around 0.5640 and should continue to hold gains and strengthen on this cross although the RBNZ may provide a temporary setback. We still look for 0.5755 target in the coming weeks.

  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
NZD/GBP 0.5632 0.5600 0.5755 0.5581 - 0.5691
GBP/NZD 1.7756 1.7377 1.7857 1.7571 - 1.7917

Friday 4th August 3:00pm(NZT)
The more negatively toned Bank of England statement last night saw the New Zealand dollar climb from 0.5580 to 0.5655. The NZD should hold and increase gains on the UK pound but the RBNZ statement next week may effect a correction although overall Kiwi fundamentals remain more promising. A target of 0.5755 still remains possible over the next few weeks which would provide a good opportunity for those looking to transfer NZD to GBP.
The current interbank midrate is:    NZDGBP 0.5652    GBPNZD 1.7693

The interbank range this week has been:    NZDGBP 0.5581 - 0.5728    GBPNZD 1.7458 - 1.7917
Friday 28st July 1:00pm(NZT)
Price action in this pair hasn’t really been driven by fundamental data at all this week. We have seen the New Zealand dollar outperform the UK Pound somewhat, but that’s happened on the back of broad based USD weakness that has dominated the market over the past 5 days. Solid resistance around the 0.5755 area (support at 1.7376) has managed to cap any periods of strength for the pair, while weakness has been limited to the 0.5680 area (1.7606). I expect to see 0.5755 (1.7376) continue to put a roof on any potential near term gains, and I think we could eventually get a move back down to much better support around 0.5560 (resistance around 1.7986). That move may take some time however.
The current interbank midrate is:    NZDGBP 0.5730    GBPNZD 1.7454

The interbank range this week has been:    NZDGBP 0.5682 - 0.5747    GBPNZD 1.7402 - 1.7598
Tuesday 25th July 1:00pm(NZT)

The New Zealand dollar outperformed the UK Pound last week, even though both countries produced softer than forecast inflation data. The GBP also has Brexit concerns weighing and those are unlikely to dissipate any time soon. There is pretty solid resistance around the 0.5755 area (support around 1.7377) and that may well cap the pair this week. Any significant decline in the pair however will need to come from some GBP strength, and the only thing this week that could potentially cause that is UK GDP data on Wednesday. A positive surprise there should see the UK Pound stage something of a recovery. At this stage the market is looking for a quarterly gain of 0.3%.

  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
NZD/GBP 0.5704 0.5650 0.5755 0.5565 - 0.5741
GBP/NZD 1.7531 1.7377 1.7699 1.7420 - 1.7970

Friday 21th July 1:00pm(NZT)
It has been a choppy week of price action for the New Zealand dollar vs the UK Pound. The pair traded to a low of 0.5565 on Tuesday in the immediate aftermath of NZ’s soft inflation result, but since then we’ve seen a decent recovery, led in large part by GBP weakness. The UK too produced some softer than forecast inflation data and this has combined with Brexit concerns the weight on the Pound. The pair currently trades just below resistance at 0.5720 and any break above that level would open the way for a test of 0.5770. A failure to overcome 0.5720 could easily see the pair drift lower to support at 0.5660.
The current interbank midrate is:    NZDGBP 0.5706    GBPNZD 1.7526

The interbank range this week has been:    NZDGBP 0.5565 - 0.5718    GBPNZD 1.7488 - 1.7970
Tuesday 18th July 1:00pm(NZT)

Although price action over the past week in this pair had been volatile, the overall level of the New Zealand dollar vs the UK Pound started the week little changed from where it was at the beginning July. That all changed this morning however, with the release of soft NZ inflation data. The NZD immediately fell across the board and against the GBP the cross is currently testing initial support around 0.5560. A sustained break below that level will open the way for a test of the 0.5450 area. Those with GBP’s to sell should be patient and let this move develop.

  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
NZD/GBP 0.5568 0.5560 0.5660 0.5565 - 0.5703
GBP/NZD 1.7958 1.7668 1.7986 1.7536 - 1.7970
 
Friday 14th July 12:00pm(NZT)
The past two weeks have seen the New Zealand dollar trading sideways in a quiet range against the UK Pound between the broad parameters of 0.5590 and 0.5660. Only in the past 48 hours has the market livened up with a test of the lows at 0.5587, followed by a strong bounce and a short lived spike higher to 0.5704. That volatility has largely been driven by movements in the NZD as it benefited from some solid USD and EUR selling. As this recent NZD strength isn’t based on any change in fundamentals for New Zealand, we suspect it eventually run out of steam and the pair could slowly correct lower. In the meantime however we can’t rule out further tests of the topside and we favour selling into any such strength.
The current interbank midrate is:    NZDGBP 0.5651    GBPNZD 1.7696

The interbank range this week has been:    NZDGBP 0.5587 - 0.5688    GBPNZD 1.7581 - 1.7898
Tuesday 11th July 1:00pm(NZT)

Like many New Zealand dollar pairings, the NZDGBP has been range bound over the past couple of weeks. The UK pound is struggling for direction at the moment, with disappointing data countering the Bank of England's tightening bias. The NZD too has been treading water recently albeit at what we consider slightly elevated levels. This sideways price action won’t continue forever, but at this stage it’s hard to see what could trigger a move. The only data of significance this week comes from the UK in the form of their employment and earnings numbers. Maybe that will finally break the deadlock?

  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
NZD/GBP 0.5627 0.5595 0.5660 0.5597 - 0.5660
GBP/NZD 1.7772 1.7666 1.7873 1.7669 - 1.7867

Friday 7th July 4:30pm(NZT)
The New Zealand dollar continues to sideways trade against the UK Pound. It’s now at 0.5620 but still unable to get above the 0.5700 level. It continues to look for direction, although given the more hawkish BoE over our RBNZ downside tone has the edge.
The current interbank midrate is:    NZDGBP 0.5614    GBPNZD 1.7812

The interbank range this week has been:    NZDGBP 0.5597 - 0.5659    GBPNZD 1.7671 - 1.7867
Tuesday 4th July 4:30pm(NZT)

The New Zealand dollar continues to hold below the 0.5700 level against the UK Pound. Now at 0.5623 and trading in a narrow range, should consolidate at current levels ahead of US data and unless BoE starts talking up rate increases again.

  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
NZD/GBP 0.5620 0.5580 0.5750 0.5599 - 0.5762
GBP/NZD 1.7794 1.7391 1.7921 1.7356 - 1.7861

Friday 30th June 3:30pm(NZT)
After the previous sideways pattern the New Zealand dollar has broken lower against the UK Pound as the BoE talk of rate hikes has pushed the pair to a low of 0.5595. That’s down from 0.5768 high earlier in the week. Now at 05626 and consolidation around this level should hold into next week.
The current interbank midrate is:    NZDGBP 0.5627    GBPNZD 1.7770

The interbank range this week has been:    NZDGBP 0.5599 - 0.5762    GBPNZD 1.7356 - 1.7861
Tuesday 27th June 4:00pm(NZT)

The NZD is now up at 0.5733 vs the UK Pound and looks to be in a sideways pattern. News from the UK continues to be conflicting especially around the political situation. A push to the 0.5750 looks possible over the next few days.

  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
NZD/GBP 0.5728 0.5580 0.5800 0.5673 - 0.5751
GBP/NZD 1.7458 1.7241 1.7921 1.7387 - 1.7627

Tuesday 20th June 3:30pm(NZT)

The New Zealand dollar is currently around 0.5680 to the UK Pound, after pushing higher to 0.5720 again failed late last week. A push through the 0.5720 resistance level would be encouraging but as long as NZD holds above 0.5625 potential for further gains remain, especially given the “fluid’ state of UK politics.

  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
NZD/GBP 0.5672 0.5580 0.5800 0.5629 - 0.5732
GBP/NZD 1.7630 1.7241 1.7921 1.7447 - 1.7765

Friday 16th June 8:45pm(NZT)
The New Zealand dollar had a crack at key resistance around 0.5720 this week, but failed to overcome it. Since then we have had a softer than forecast NZ GDP result and a surprisingly close vote at the Bank of England meeting, both of which have pressured the NZDGBP to the downside. There are tentative signs the tide is turning after relentless gains for much of the past month, and we may well now see further losses for the pair over the coming week. Initial support comes in around 0.5625 and any break below there would likely encourage further selling.
The current interbank midrate is:    NZDGBP 0.5641    GBPNZD 1.7726

The interbank range this week has been:    NZDGBP 0.5629 - 0.5732    GBPNZD 1.7447 - 1.7765
Tuesday 13th June 4:00pm(NZT)

Post-election political turmoil has driven this cross higher with the UK Pound underperforming across the board. It’s now trading at 0.5707 and further advances look likely with the next target at 0.5800 possible later this week. Key resistance around 0.5720 will need to be overcome first however.

  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
NZD/GBP 0.5705 0.5580 0.5800 0.5530 - 0.5708
GBP/NZD 1.7529 1.7241 1.7921 1.7518 - 1.8085

Thursday 8th June 4:00pm(NZT)
Election rules on this cross….now around 0.5562 but we expect little movement from this level until the result is clearer tomorrow late morning NZ time. A convincing Conservative victory could see the NZD to fall to the 0.5480 zone as a relief rally takes over the GBP.
The current interbank midrate is:    NZDGBP 0.5548    GBPNZD 1.8025

The interbank range this week has been:    NZDGBP 0.5473 - 0.5590    GBPNZD 1.7889 - 1.8271
Tuesday 6th June 4:00pm(NZT)

The UK Pound continues to be buffeted by election jitters, this cross is now at 0.5528  and looks to be set to pressure 0.5560 which if broken could extend to above 0.5600.

  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
NZD/GBP 0.5528 0.5480 0.5560 0.5473 - 0.5555
GBP/NZD 1.8091 1.7985 1.8248 1.8002 - 1.8271

Friday 2nd June 4:45pm(NZT)
The NZD has benefited from the continued poll weakness for the Conservatives ahead of next Thursday’s UK general election. Currently at 0.5488 and a move back to resistance at 0.5560 looks likely which if broken could see an extension to 0.5607..more likely next week.
The current interbank midrate is:    NZDGBP 0.5486    GBPNZD 1.8227

The interbank range this week has been:    NZDGBP 0.5437 - 0.5558    GBPNZD 1.7993 - 1.8391
Tuesday 30th May 4:15pm(NZT)

The New Zealand Dollar has built on previous gains as the UK Pound succumbs to weaker data and a drop in polls for the Conservative government 8 days out from the election. It is currently around 0.5502 up from 0.5425 seen on Friday. Next stop is 0.5607, but we favour trading sub 0.5560 until some of this week's US data has been digested.

  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
NZD/GBP 0.5494 0.5480 0.5560 0.5387 - 0.5521
GBP/NZD 1.8201 1.7985 1.8248 1.8111 - 1.8563

Friday 26th May 12:45pm(NZT)
Gains in this pair have been largely driven by strength in the New Zealand dollar over the past week. The UK pound itself remains range bound while the NZD has been supported by solid trade balance data and increasing dairy pay-out forecasts. Gains in the past couple of days however have been much harder fought and resistance around 0.5450 has so far capped the pair. If that continues then we could easily see a pullback towards support around 0.5480. If however the pair can overcome 0.5450 it will open the way for gains toward the much stronger resistance level of 0.5560.
The current interbank midrate is:    NZDGBP 0.5423    GBPNZD 1.8439

The interbank range this week has been:    NZDGBP 0.5291 - 0.5447    GBPNZD 1.8360 - 1.8898
Tuesday 23rd May 4:15pm(NZT)

With the UK Pound having a pullback on the Conservatives election stumble, the New Zealand dollar is now at 0.5400 on this cross. What effect the UK terror bombing will have on the election is still unclear but if the NZD can hold around the 0.5380-0.5400 level a move to 0.5450 is possible over the next few days.

  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
NZD/GBP 0.5394 0.5300 0.5450 0.5291 - 0.5402
GBP/NZD 1.8538 1.8348 1.8868 1.8511 - 1.8898

Friday 19th May 4:15pm(NZT)
The NZDGBP as traded in a tight 0.5308-0.5365 range over the last few days. It is now at 0.5318 and lacks any clear direction. After last night's GBP/USD rally back over 1.30 we now look for the NZD to move back to support at the 0.5305 region.
The current interbank midrate is:    NZDGBP 0.5311    GBPNZD 1.8828

The interbank range this week has been:    NZDGBP 0.5305 - 0.5362    GBPNZD 1.8649 - 1.8851
Tuesday 16th May 4:15pm(NZT)

The NZD is firmer against the UK Pound over the past few days. It is currently at 0.5340 and looks to be set to target a move back over 0.5350 over the coming days. Support around 0.5300 should contain any periods of relative NZD weakness, assuming tonight’s dairy auction doesn’t produce a big negative surprise.

  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
NZD/GBP 0.5329 0.5300 0.5420 0.5274 - 0.5373
GBP/NZD 1.8767 1.8450 1.8868 1.8610 - 1.8961

Friday 12th May 4:15pm(NZT)
The weaker New Zealand dollar has seen this cross down at 0.5275 after yesterday’s RBNZ statement. It’s now back around 0.5310 after the BoE disappointment overnight. A little directionless at the moment but we look for a move back to the 0.5350 region next week.
The current interbank midrate is:    NZDGBP 0.5302    GBPNZD 1.8862

The interbank range this week has been:    NZDGBP 0.5274 - 0.5373    GBPNZD 1.8610 - 1.8961
Tuesday 9th May 8:15pm(NZT)
Better election prospects have helped the UK Pound on this cross as the New Zealand dollar has weakened from 0.5390. It’s now at 0.5340 and looks to be consolidating. We expect the pair to hold at current levels until the RBNZ statement on Thursday.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
NZD/GBP 0.5325 0.5300 0.5420 0.5299 - 0.5385
GBP/NZD 1.8777 1.8450 1.8868 1.8570 - 1.8873

Friday 5th May 3:45pm(NZT)
Better data has helped the UK Pound which has ranged between 0.5298-0.5390 on this cross over the week. It is now at 0.5320 and should hold these levels heading into next week. If commodity currencies continue out of favour the pair will struggle. The New Zealand dollar however looks a little oversold and a recovery in the local currency could push the pair back to 0.5390 or higher.
The current interbank midrate is:    NZDGBP 0.5324    GBPNZD 1.8783

The interbank range this week has been:    NZDGBP 0.5297 - 0.5387    GBPNZD 1.8563 - 1.8880
Tuesday 2nd May 7:15pm(NZT)
The New Zealand dollar has fallen against the UK Pound over the last week from 0.5518 to 0.5298. It has staged a minor recovery to the 0.0.5368 level and should consolidate around current levels ahead of the US jobs data on Friday. The GBP is favoured on this cross as long as GBP data remains supportive. As the UK election date approaches (June 8th) expect some choppy moves.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
NZD/GBP 0.5362 0.5300 0.5420 0.5297 - 0.5471
GBP/NZD 1.8651 1.8450 1.8868 1.8278 - 1.8880

Friday 21st April 11:40am(NZT)
The UK Pound has had a very strong week surging higher in the wake of PM May’s snap election announcement. Market positioning has played a big part in the move with short (sold) positions getting squeezed out. The market is still very short the GBP and on the basis of that we expect further gains for the Pound. These gains should see the NZDGBP pair test support around 0.5400 initially. If the pair makes a solid break below that level the next target will be 0.5200, although that may well be a step too far with a lot of uncertainty still hanging over the GBP in terms of Brexit.
The current interbank midrate is:    NZDGBP 0.5460    GBPNZD 1.8315

The interbank range this week has been:    NZDGBP 0.5456 - 0.5608    GBPNZD 1.7831 - 1.8329
Tuesday 18th April 7:15pm(NZT)
The New Zealand dollar lost some ground to the UK Pound last week, with the pair temporarily breaking below key support around 0.5575. That move extended all the way down to a low of 0.5531 before the pair bounced back above 0.5575. The damage looks to have been done however and we look for further tests of the downside over this week. UK economic data continues to be broadly supportive of the economic outlook going forward.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
NZD/GBP 0.5583 0.5420 0.5620 0.5531 - 0.5608
GBP/NZD 1.7910 1.7793 1.8450 1.7831 - 1.8081
 
Tuesday 11th April 4:15pm(NZT)
We have seen boring trading for the New Zealand dollar vs the UK Pound with the pair still in a sideways pattern between the broad parameters of 0.5575 and 0.5720. At this stage it’s hard to see a breakout from that range unless UK data this week, in the form of inflation and employment numbers, surprises.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
NZD/GBP 0.5590 0.5575 0.5720 0.5569 - 0.5624
GBP/NZD 1.7889 1.7482 1.7937 1.7781 - 1.7957
 
Friday 7th April 4:50pm(NZT)
The New Zealand dollar remains in a sideways pattern against the UK Pound. It’s currently at 0.5590 and hard to see any reason for a breakout of the 0.5575-0.5720 range at this stage. A stronger USD will pressure both currencies in this cross.
The current interbank midrate is:    NZDGBP 0.5585    GBPNZD 1.7905

The interbank range this week has been:    NZDGBP 0.5569 - 0.5623    GBPNZD 1.7784 - 1.7957
Tuesday 4th April 7:15pm(NZT)
The New Zealand dollar is currently at 0.5612 on overnight UK Pound weakness, but still within the 0.5713-0.5575 range seen over the last 2 weeks. The weaker overnight GBP/USD is the driver rather than NZD strength alone. Look for consolidation within the current range to continue this week.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
NZD/GBP 0.5597 0.5575 0.5720 0.5573 - 0.5665
GBP/NZD 1.7867 1.7482 1.7937 1.7653 - 1.7945

Friday 31st March 1:00pm(NZT)
The UK Pound saw some nervous selling in the lead up to MP May’s article 50 announcement, but as it was widely expected there was little reaction after the event. Against the New Zealand dollar this saw the cross trade up to highs around 0.5665, but since then we’ve started to see the GBP regain some ground. Combined with some NZD weakness this has driven the pair back towards 0.5600. We think the GBP could keep appreciating over the near term as speculative short (sold) GBP positions start to get squared up.
The current interbank midrate is:    NZDGBP 0.5606    GBPNZD 1.7836

The interbank range this week has been:    NZDGBP 0.5575 - 0.5665    GBPNZD 1.7653 - 1.7939
Tuesday 28th March 4:15pm(NZT)
The GBP has strengthened against the New Zealand dollar, currently at 0.5609 after 0.5712 a week ago. We continue to look for a small pullback in the GBP after the Brexit trigger tomorrow, but any move is expected to be shallow over the short term given the better the UK economic data. Market positioning data suggests the market is very short (sold) GBP, and the potential for a squeeze higher in the GBP after the initial volatility around article 50 is definitely there.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
NZD/GBP 0.5609 0.5575 0.5720 0.5591 - 0.5704
GBP/NZD 1.7828 1.7482 1.7937 1.7530 - 1.7885

Friday 24th March 3:00pm(NZT)
The New Zealand dollar has weakened on this cross as better UK data over the week has pushed the UK Pound higher against most of its trading partners. Now at 0.5614 after slipping from 0.5716 earlier in the week. Look for some pullback in the GBP after the Brexit trigger on 29th.
The current interbank midrate is:    NZDGBP 0.5621    GBPNZD 1.7790

The interbank range this week has been:    NZDGBP 0.5610 - 0.5714    GBPNZD 1.7502 - 1.7825
Tuesday 21st March 4:15pm(NZT)
The New Zealand dollar has firmed against the UK Pound after the Brexit date was announced climbing to 0.5715 yesterday. It opens around 0.5697 but still trading within the 0.5560-0.5940 broad range.  Given our view of a weaker GBP next week on the Brexit trigger date 29th March, we now expect the NZD to track towards the top of the range in the days ahead.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
NZD/GBP 0.5696 0.5640 0.5740 0.5640 - 0.5735
GBP/NZD 1.7557 1.7421 1.7730 1.7438 - 1.7732

Friday 17th March 4:00pm(NZT)
The New Zealand dollar remains soft against the UK pound, weakening overnight on the stronger GBP to the 0.5652 level. Look for continued New Zealand dollar weakness with a drift towards the bottom of the broad 0.5560-0.5940 range.
The current interbank midrate is:    NZDGBP 0.5647    GBPNZD 1.7709

The interbank range this week has been:    NZDGBP 0.5640 - 0.5735    GBPNZD 1.7438 - 1.7732
Tuesday 14th March 3:45pm(NZT)
The New Zealand dollar continues to remain soft on this cross, now trading at 0.5665 vs the UK Pound, but still within a narrow 0.5725-0.5650 band. The NZD may weaken further now that there is some clarity around the Brexit timetable, but we expect the overall broad 0.5940-0.5560 3 month range to remain intact.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
NZD/GBP 0.5666 0.5650 0.5740 0.5658 - 0.5737
GBP/NZD 1.7649 1.7421 1.7699 1.7132 - 1.7675

Friday 10th March 4:00pm(NZT)
The New Zealand dollar continues to fall against the UK Pound now at 0.5679 after opening at 0.5742 at the start of the week. The weakening trend has continued and would have been more pronounced had not the Brexit problems continued to weigh on the GBP. Direction is still driven by the relative strengths of these two currencies against the USD and at the moment the GBP has the lead.
The current interbank midrate is:    NZDGBP 0.5678    GBPNZD 1.7611

The interbank range this week has been:    NZDGBP 0.5659 - 0.5758    GBPNZD 1.7366 - 1.7670
Tuesday 7th March 3:45pm(NZT)
The New Zealand dollar continues to weaken against the UK Pound and is now at 0.5721(1.7480), as the NZD weakness faster against the USD than the GBP. Trading is still very much sideways with the range for the last week only just over 100 points. We expect NZD weakness to continue over the short term, but any Brexit surprise would be NZDGBP supportive.   
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
NZD/GBP 0.5713 0.5675 0.5820 0.5704 - 0.5832
GBP/NZD 1.7502 1.7182 1.7622 1.7147 - 1.7533

Friday 3rd March 4:15pm(NZT)
The New Zealand dollar has weakened against the UK Pound dropping from the 0.5817 (1.7190) region to around 0.5750 (1.7391) currently, mainly on the back of this week’s better data coming from the UK boosting the GBP. There is still no clear overall direction however.
The current interbank midrate is:    NZDGBP 0.5738    GBPNZD 1.7429

The interbank range this week has been:    NZDGBP 0.5735 - 0.5832    GBPNZD 1.7147 - 1.7437
Tuesday 28th February 7:45pm(NZT)
The New Zealand dollar has seen small movements in sideways trading against the UK Pound recently. No direction pretty much sums up trading in this pair over the last week. Brexit news rumbles on and UK data remains mixed. The high of the week has been 0.5736 (1.7434) and our comments of last week still stand as rallies of the NZD over the 0.5800 (1.7241) level look to be good selling.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
NZD/GBP 0.5774 0.5720 0.5820 0.5725 - 0.5814
GBP/NZD 1.7319 1.7182 1.7483 1.7199 - 1.7469

Friday 24th February 2:45pm(NZT)
There has been little overall direction for this pair over the past week as prices continue to range between support at 0.5720 (1.7483) and resistance around 0.5820 (1.7182). Economic fundamentals from NZ remain supportive of the New Zealand dollar, but the UK economy is also performing much better than many had expected it would have, in light of the uncertainty about the impact of Brexit. There is a lot of negativity built into the UK Pound at the moment and if economic data continues to remain largely positive then at some stage the market may look to reprice the GBP somewhat stronger. For the time being look for more of the same range trading action, but our bias would be for selling into periods of NZD strength above 0.5800.
The current interbank midrate is:    NZDGBP 0.5755    GBPNZD 1.7376

The interbank range this week has been:    NZDGBP 0.5725 - 0.5807    GBPNZD 1.7222 - 1.7467
Tuesday 21st February 6:45pm(NZT)
The New Zealand dollar has consolidated in a sideways pattern over the last few days against the UK Pound. It is currently around 0.5750 (1.7390) and has weakened on the firmer GBP dropping from a high of 0.5804 (1.7229) yesterday. There is no clear direction at this stage but next level is at 0.5720 (1.7470). The old 0.5700-0.5800 (1.7544-1.7242) range still prevails.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
NZD/GBP 0.5745 0.5720 0.5914 0.5724 - 0.5809
GBP/NZD 1.7407 1.7094 1.7482 1.7214 - 1.7470

Friday 17th February 4:30pm(NZT)
The New Zealand dollar has traded in roughly a 100 point range against the UK Pound over the week. The pair is currently showing little clear direction. Better UK economic figures have stemmed the GBP slide on this cross but still trading in the broad 0.5700-0.5800 (1.7543-1.7241) range. If 0.5720 (1.7483) breaks look for a move back to the 0.5675 (1.7621) level.
The current interbank midrate is:    NZDGBP 0.5760    GBPNZD 1.7361

The interbank range this week has been:    NZDGBP 0.5724 - 0.5809    GBPNZD 1.7214 - 1.7470
Tuesday 14th February 4:45pm(NZT)
The New Zealand dollar still trading in a 0.5700-0.5800 (1.7543-1.7241) range against the UK Pound where it has spent the last 5 days. The New Zealand dollar still a little soft against a firmer GBP, if 0.5720 breaks look for a move back to the 0.5675 level.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
NZD/GBP 0.5730 0.5720 0.5914 0.5730 - 0.5913
GBP/NZD 1.7453 1.7094 1.7482 1.6913 - 1.7426

Friday 10th February 6:30pm(NZT)
The New Zealand dollar has softened over the last couple of days against the GBP. The UK Pound has garnered support from a more certain Brexit date after PM May succeeded in the Parliamentary vote, and the New Zealand dollar tracked lower after the RBNZ statement yesterday. Currently around 0.5749 (1.7395) and we expect this cross to consolidate around current levels heading into  next week.
The current interbank midrate is:    NZDGBP 0.5750    GBPNZD 1.7391

The interbank range this week has been:    NZDGBP 0.5739 - 0.5913    GBPNZD 1.6913 - 1.7426
Tuesday 7th February 4:45pm(NZT)
The New Zealand dollar has continued to strengthen against the Pound Sterling currently sitting at 0.5900 (1.6949) and looks set to hit the 0.5950 (1.6806) level over the next few days. Offshore events will override this cross, but with the “Brexit” outcome now more certain, the next few days will be more susceptible to New Zealand releases in the form of the dairy auction results and RBNZ news.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
NZD/GBP 0.5899 0.5775 0.590 0.5721 - 0.5908
GBP/NZD 1.6951 1.6806 1.7316 1.6927 - 1.7479
 
Friday 3rd February 4:30pm(NZT)
After a couple of spikes lower to the 0.5721 (1.7477) region the New Zealand dollar has bounced back to the 0.5824 (1.7168) level on the more dovish statement from the BoE on interest rates. We still favour the New Zealand dollar on this cross and look for a move towards the 0.5950 (1.6806) mark given the more benign political climate and better fundamentals of the New Zealand currency.
The current interbank midrate is:    NZDGBP 0.5808    GBPNZD 1.7219

The interbank range this week has been:    NZDGBP 0.5721 - 0.5864    GBPNZD 1.7054 - 1.7479
Tuesday 31st January 4:45pm(NZT)
UK Pound strength has pressured the New Zealand dollar lower over the last few days, helped by what was seen as a positive trip for UK PM May to visit President Trump. Also helping the GBP generally, have been better UK data releases. Currently at 0.5830 (1.7150) after a range of 0.5769- 0.5845(1.7334-1.7107) overnight. The New Zealand dollar looks to be reasserting control over this cross, not surprising given our more favourable fundamentals.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
NZD/GBP 0.5823 0.5730 0.5954 0.5740 - 0.5843
GBP/NZD 1.7172 1.6795 1.7452 1.7116 - 1.7421

Friday 27th January 3:30pm(NZT)
The stronger UK Pound has pushed the New Zealand dollar lower on this cross for most of the week. The current level is around 0.5752 (1.7385) around where we expect closeout for the week. However a good outcome of PM May’s US visit may see the GBP continue to strengthen next week and has potential to push the New Zealand lower towards the  0.5670/80 (1.7636-1.7605) region.
The current interbank midrate is:    NZDGBP 0.5752    GBPNZD 1.7386

The interbank range this week has been:    NZDGBP 0.5740 - 0.5841    GBPNZD 1.7122 - 1.7421
Tuesday 24th January 6:15pm(NZT)
Trading at 0.5782 (1.7295) as the New Zealand dollar has weakened from an overnight high of (1.7224) 0.5805 as the UK Pound firmed against most of its trading partners. The NZD remains favoured on this cross given the more benign political conditions and more resilient economy.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
NZD/GBP 0.5779 0.5650 0.5850 0.5764 - 0.5923
GBP/NZD 1.7303 1.7094 1.7700 1.6884 - 1.7349

Friday 20th January 1:30pm(NZT)
The UK Pound started the week on the back foot with expectations of a ‘hard Brexit’ speech from UK PM May weighing on the currency. Against the New Zealand dollar that dove the cross up to a high of 0.5938 (low of 1.6841). But with so much negativity already baked into the GBP, and PM May’s speech inspiring some confidence that the UK can deal with a clean break from the EU, the Pound sharply recovered. Better than expected economic data from the United Kingdom also helped, notably the inflation result which jumped to 1.6% from 1.2% prior. Initial resistance comes in around 0.5865 (support 1.6841) and we are looking for that to cap any potential strength as we head into next week. On the downside there is minor support just below 0.5800 (above 1.7241) and any break of that level would open the way for a test of 0.5700 (1.7544). UK GDP and NZ inflation data provide the focus for next week.
The current interbank midrate is:    NZDGBP 0.5823    GBPNZD 1.7174

The interbank range this week has been:    NZDGBP 0.5798 - 0.5938    GBPNZD 1.6840 - 1.7248
Tuesday 17th January 2:15pm(NZT)
Brexit woes continue to favour the New Zealand dollar on this cross, with choppy trading last night between 0.5866-0.5942 (1.7047-1.6829). The market has opened around 0.5897 (1.6958) and the NZD now has a target of 0.5988 (1.6700) last seen on 8th November. Tonight’s speech by PM May on her Brexit intentions could provide the catalyst. The market is expecting her to signal a ‘hard Brexit’ and this should keep the GBP under pressure in the near term.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
NZD/GBP 0.5895 0.5750 0.5980 0.5722 - 0.5938
GBP/NZD 1.6963 1.6722 1.7391 1.6840 - 1.7477

Friday 13th January 6:30pm(NZT)
The New Zealand dollar continues to hold firm against the UK Pound as the latter remains locked in the “Brexit embrace” , range of 0.5777-0.5865 (1.7308-1.7048) overnight and is now around 0.5844 (1.7110) …As we commented earlier in the week we expect the NZD to hold these elevated levels against the GBP at least for the Q1 of 2017 and until the Brexit details are better known.
The current interbank midrate is:    NZDGBP 0.5857    GBPNZD 1.7079

The interbank range this week has been:    NZDGBP 0.5655 - 0.5862    GBPNZD 1.7059 - 1.7683
Tuesday 10th January 4:00pm(NZT)
The New Zealand dollar has been choppy overnight against the GBP having a range of 0.5674-0.5781 (1.7622-1.7298) over the last 24 hours. Currently trading around 0.5770 (1.7340). Brexit concerns continue to drive the GBP and this sentiment is unlikely to change in the short term. We expect the NZD to stay elevated against the GBP given the more stable NZD economic environment.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
NZD/GBP 0.5779 0.5550 0.5800 0.5622 - 0.5779
GBP/NZD 1.7305 1.7241 1.8018 1.7303 - 1.7788

Friday 23rd December 3:45am(NZT)
The New Zealand dollar has drifted higher in trade against the UK pound since our report on Tuesday. There has been little fresh direction for the cross this week given the lack of UK data so far and NZ data which was conformed close enough the expectations to limit volatility. Economic leads for the holiday period start in the UK with PMI indicators in the first week of 2017 (and UK GDP today). Expect some volatility given the typically reduced liquidity although for now we would expect trade to be largely contained within recent ranges. (~.5570-..5715 or 1.7953-1.7498).
The current interbank midrate is:    NZDGBP 0.5623    GBPNZD 1.7783

The interbank range this week has been:    NZDGBP 0.5571 - 0.5669    GBPNZD 1.7638 - 1.7949
Tuesday 20th December 1:30pm(NZT)
The New Zealand dollar has resumed its decline against the UK pound in trade since Friday. The move comes as the NZD (and AUD) have underperformed in recent trade in the environment of the stronger USD. The move reflects falls in key $AUD priced commodities and a more cautious stance towards the risk currencies given the recent rise in geopolitical tensions. In focus this week is GDP data from both countries. Dairy prices are expected to remain relatively flat in the latest auction tonight and should pass with minimal interest. We continue to favour the GBP over the NZD, especially on rallies.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
NZD/GBP 0.5591 0.5550 0.5715 0.5571 - 0.5720
GBP/NZD 1.7885 1.7498 1.8018 1.7482 - 1.7950

Friday 16th December 11:45am(NZT)
The New Zealand dollar is largely unchanged in trade against the UK pound since our commentary on Tuesday. Both currencies have fallen to a similar extent against the rampant US dollar over the week. Highs around the .5715/20 (1.7498/1.7483 lows) level are now forming as a key barrier to further gains at present. GDP data from both countries on Thursday will be of most interest next week. Overall direction appears to be lacking at present. We marginally favour the GBP over the NZD, especially if levels near the weekly NZD highs are again achieved next week.
The current interbank midrate is:    NZDGBP 0.5662    GBPNZD 1.7662

The interbank range this week has been:    NZDGBP 0.5638 - 0.5718    GBPNZD 1.7488 - 1.7737
Tuesday 13th December 2:30pm(NZT)
The New Zealand dollar has eased moderately in trade against the UK pound since our report on Friday. Volatility has been reduced in the last few days ahead of what could be a busy week for the cross as we get various data releases in the UK (starting with inflation tonight), which is headed by the BoE meeting on Thursday. NZ GDP data earlier in the day should also be watched. NZD highs set on two occasion last week around .5715 (1.7498 lows) is now the first resistance to watch. Recent momentum is lacking with a clouded directional bias.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
NZD/GBP 0.5676 0.5550 0.5715 0.5575 - 0.5715
GBP/NZD 1.7617 1.7498 1.8018 1.7497 - 1.7937

Friday 9th December 11:15am(NZT)
The New Zealand dollar has rallied against the UK pound since Tuesday’s commentary. The move reflects the outperformance of the NZD relative to the GBP that has occurred on the back of the gains in the NZD/USD exchange rate. Positive comments on NZ’s growth outlook and another rally in dairy prices have helped the NZD during the week. In focus next week is NZ GDP data on Thursday, although expect the UK to get the limelight as we receive inflation (Tuesday), employment (Wednesday) and the BoE meeting on Thursday. Initial resistance is seen at .5735 (1.7437 support), support is distant at around .5550 (1.8018 resistance).
The current interbank midrate is:    NZDGBP 0.5699    GBPNZD 1.7548

The interbank range this week has been:    NZDGBP 0.5557 - 0.5715    GBPNZD 1.7497 - 1.7996
Tuesday 6th December 2:30pm(NZT)
The New Zealand dollar has eased further in trade against the UK pound since our commentary on Thursday. The move reflects a continuation of the relative strength of the GBP against the NZD, a trend which has been in place for almost a month now. UK data has been generally supportive of GBP strength in the last week. Manufacturing indicators from the UK are to be watched tomorrow whilst in NZ we have the GDT dairy auction overnight in what otherwise should be a quiet week for NZ economic leads. We feel a consolidation well within last week’s range looks most likely this week.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
NZD/GBP 0.5618 0.5550 0.5650 0.5557 - 0.5753
GBP/NZD 1.7801 1.7699 1.8018 1.7383 - 1.7996

Thursday 1st December 2:00pm(NZT)
The New Zealand dollar has fallen in trade against the UK pound since our commentary on Tuesday. The move lower has occurred in trade overnight on the back of the falls in the NZD/USD exchange rate which took its cue from a weaker Australian dollar, although the GBP/USD has lifted in recent trade. Data has had no direct influence this week although this may change in the next two days when we receive the UK manufacturing and construction PMIs. Support is seen at .5600 (1.7857 resistance) whilst resistance is now noted at last night’s highs around .5750 (1.7391 support).
The current interbank midrate is:    NZDGBP 0.5663    GBPNZD 1.7659

The interbank range this week has been:    NZDGBP 0.5604 - 0.5753    GBPNZD 1.7383 - 1.7843
Tuesday 29th November 3:30pm(NZT)
The New Zealand dollar has lifted in trade against the UK pound since our last report. Much of the move has come in recent hours on the back of last night’s decline in the GBP, although a pick-up in the commodity currencies this week has also helped. Data looks unlikely to have a heavy influence on trade this week, although the UK PMI indicators later in the week should have a degree of influence if they miss expectations by a margin. Look to the OPEC meeting result later in the week for influence on commodity currency sentiment. Momentum at the moment is mildly NZ dollar positive.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
NZD/GBP 0.5705 0.5600 0.5735 0.5604 - 0.5710
GBP/NZD 1.7527 1.7437 1.7857 1.7513 - 1.7843

Friday 25th November 2:30pm(NZT)
The New Zealand dollar has eased in trade against the UK pound this week. There has been little in the way of data from either country this week which has meant the recent sentiment and momentum in the NZD and GBP has prevailed over the course of the week. Data looks unlikely to play a key role in trade for most of next week also, although UK PMI’s towards the end of the week should be watched. First minor support is seen at .5600 (1.7857 resistance). NZD rallies towards .5700 (1.7544) should invite some supply on the topside.
The current interbank midrate is:    NZDGBP 0.5627    GBPNZD 1.7771

The interbank range this week has been:    NZDGBP 0.5604 - 0.5725    GBPNZD 1.7468 - 1.7843
Tuesday 22nd November 2:30pm(NZT)
The New Zealand dollar is largely unchanged in trade against the UK pound since Friday. There has been very little for the cross to go on since our last report which has meant the cross has continued to trade within last week’s range, although a dip was seen overnight after the UK PM’s comments. With little in the way of important data we favour more range trading, especially while .5630 (1.7762 holds). Support beyond this level is seen at .5600/10 (1.7857/1.7825 resistance) so we would be surprised to see too much further in the way of falls this week should first support break.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
NZD/GBP 0.5663 0.5630 0.5735 0.5640 - 0.5737
GBP/NZD 1.7657 1.7437 1.7762 1.7432 - 1.7731

Friday 18th November 2:30pm(NZT)
The New Zealand dollar has eased moderately against the UK pound since our commentary on Tuesday. Highs around the .5735 (1.7437 lows) level were seen towards the middle of the week however. The recent weakness in the AUD has seen the NZD pulled lower and underperform the GBP as the week progressed. Support heading into next week remains at the .5630 level (1.7762 resistance), whilst on the topside this week’s highs (.5735, 1.7437 lows) through to .5750 (1.7391) is key initial resistance. We favour buying the GBP on rallies towards first resistance. UK GDP on Friday is the only major data of note next week.
The current interbank midrate is:    NZDGBP 0.5662    GBPNZD 1.7661

The interbank range this week has been:    NZDGBP 0.5627 - 0.5757    GBPNZD 1.7371 - 1.7772
Tuesday 15th November 2:00pm(NZT)
The New Zealand dollar has continued its sharp reversal lower in trade against the UK pound since Friday’s review. The move reflects the reduced likelihood of policy easing in the UK and large relative outperformance of the pound in the wake of last week’s Trump win and RBNZ cash rate reduction/comments. First support is eyed around yesterday’s lows (.5630, 1.7762 highs), whilst on the NZD topside first resistance looks to be in the .5750/70 zone (1.7391/1.7331 support). Expect another busy week given the UK data schedule. We marginally favour buying GBP towards first NZD resistance, although the size of last week’s decline means the bounce could extend further (.5800/1.7241 would be the next target).
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
NZD/GBP 0.5694 0.5630 0.5750 0.5626 - 0.5986
GBP/NZD 1.7561 1.7391 1.7762 1.6706 - 1.7775

Friday 11th November 2:30pm(NZT)
The New Zealand dollar has fallen sharply from its highs against the UK pound which were seen on Wednesday. (~.5980/1.6722 lows). The peak was seen as buyers pushed the NZD up (risk-on) in anticipation of a Clinton victory in the US election early in the day. The subsequent Trump win, USD rally and RBNZ rate cut/comments has seen the NZD significantly underperform the firm GBP in trade since. UK data (inflation on Tuesday, employment on Wednesday) and sentiment towards the GBP and NZD will drive next week. This week’s large drop signifies an important top for this cross for the immediate future. We expect resistance to rallies in the .5800/15 zone (1.7241/1.7197).
The current interbank midrate is:    NZDGBP 0.5734    GBPNZD 1.7440

The interbank range this week has been:    NZDGBP 0.5732 - 0.5986    GBPNZD 1.6706 - 1.7445
Tuesday 8th November 2:30pm(NZT)
The New Zealand dollar is trading at similar levels against the UK pound to those in our last report. A sharp fall was seen after the less dovish than expected BoE interest rate decision and commentary in trade late last week, although a sharp bounce was seen off old support around the .5815/20 (resistance 1.7197/1.7182) level. Focus for this week is on tomorrow’s US election (look for risk and liquidity based volatility) outcome and the RBNZ interest rate decision/statement on Thursday. The uncertain nature of those events makes a call on the next move very difficult, although NZD momentum overall remains positive.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
NZD/GBP 0.5918 0.5815 0.5945 0.5821 - 0.5941
GBP/NZD 1.6897 1.6821 1.7197 1.6832 - 1.7178

Thursday 3rd November 3:00pm(NZT)
The New Zealand dollar has continued to rally strongly against the UK pound in trade this week. The move has come on the back of the stronger NZD which has posted impressive gains against the USD after the better than expected employment and dairy price data. Highs so far against the GBP have been seen around .5940 (1.6835 lows). First support is seen ahead of .5900 (1.6949 resistance) although events over comings days (starting with the BoE today) mean further high volatility seems a certainty. Momentum for the NZD remains positive.
The current interbank midrate is:    NZDGBP 0.5919    GBPNZD 1.6894

The interbank range this week has been:    NZDGBP 0.5824 - 0.5941    GBPNZD 1.6832 - 1.7171
Tuesday 1st November 1:30pm(NZT)
The New Zealand dollar is sitting largely unchanged in trade against the UK pound since our report on Friday. With little news to focus on traders were naturally expected to wait for key events from both countries this week. In focus are PMI indicators from the UK throughout the week and the BoE interest rate decision on Thursday (no change expected). In NZ attention will be on the overnight GDT dairy auction and employment data tomorrow. Resistance to the next advance remains at .5910 (1.6920 support) whilst first NZD support is seen around .5815 (1.7197 resistance). Momentum for now continues to favour the NZ dollar upside.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
NZD/GBP .5850 .5815 .5910 .5824 - .5906
GBP/NZD 1.7094 1.6920 1.7197 1.6931 - 1.7171

Friday 28th October 3:00pm(NZT)
The New Zealand dollar has edged higher against the UK pound since our report on Tuesday. The move reflects the relative underperformance of the GBP despite last night’s better than expected UK GDP data. Highs during the week were similar to those seen last week and represent the first barrier to any further move higher (around .5910/1.6920). Lows this week around .5820 (1.7182 highs) is the first support of note. In focus next week are UK PMIs, the BoE interest rate decision (Thursday) and employment data in NZ on Wednesday.
The current interbank midrate is:    NZDGBP 0.5854    GBPNZD 1.7083

The interbank range this week has been:    NZDGBP 0.5821 - 0.5905    GBPNZD 1.6936 - 1.7180
Tuesday 25th October 3:00pm(NZT)
The New Zealand dollar has weakened against the UK pound since Friday. The easing comes on the back of the selling seen in the commodity currencies against the backdrop of a stronger USD. GDP data from the UK is in focus this week, whilst on the local front eyes will turn to Australian inflation across the Tasman tomorrow. For now a temporary NZD highs looks to have been put in place last week with current momentum pointing for a test towards first key support in time, although headlines out of the UK are unpredictable and the big picture around the UK remains one of uncertainty.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
NZD/GBP 0.5831 0.5715 0.5910 0.5821 - 0.5912
GBP/NZD 1.7149 1.6920 1.7498 1.6916 - 1.7180

Friday 23rd October 2:30pm(NZT)
The New Zealand dollar is unchanged against the UK pound since our commentary on Tuesday. Highs around .5910 (1.6920 lows) were seen earlier in the week, although yesterday’s AUD inspired NZD retracement has seen the cross ease in recent trade. UK data this week has been largely firm, although once again focus continues to remain on the Brexit headlines which are inhibiting any GBP rallies. Data of influence next week will be the UK’s GDP report on Thursday whilst locally we will look to influence from the AUD.
The current interbank midrate is:    NZDGBP 0.5858    GBPNZD 1.7072

The interbank range this week has been:    NZDGBP 0.5787 - 0.5912    GBPNZD 1.6916 - 1.7279
Tuesday 18th October 3:00pm(NZT)
The New Zealand dollar has continued to move higher in trade against the UK pound since Friday. This time most of the heavy lifting has come via a stronger NZD rather than a materially weaker GBP, although for now the GBP continues to have few friends. Highs just ahead of .5900 (1.6949 lows) have traded after this morning’s stronger than expected NZ inflation report, although expect another volatile week given the heavy UK data schedule. We continue to see further gains in the NZD against the GBP as being likely in the weeks ahead.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
NZD/GBP 0.5870 0.5830 0.5900 0.5731 - 0.5895
GBP/NZD 1.7035 1.6949 1.7153 1.6963 - 1.7450

Friday 14th October 2:00pm(NZT)
The New Zealand dollar has edged higher against the UK pound in trade this week, although fell heavily during the week from highs around .5830 (1.7153 lows) after UK PM May voiced her view that the Parliament should vote on the plan to take Britain out of the EU. The news contributed to fresh volatility and adds further to the uncertainty around the future of the UK. Look for next week to be more data driven as we get numbers on inflation from both countries and employment data (amongst other data) from the UK. We continue to see the upside as most likely although .5830 (1.7153) needs to clear. First support is now seen at .5715 (1.7498 resistance).
The current interbank midrate is:    NZDGBP .5800    GBPNZD 1.7241

The interbank range this week has been:    NZDGBP .5673 - .5945    GBPNZD 1.6821 - 1.7628
Tuesday 11th October 2:00pm(NZT)
The New Zealand dollar has continued to move higher against the UK pound since Friday. The move reflects the recent strong negative sentiment shown towards the GBP in light of the talk from politicians over the likely form of the Brexit negotiations. This sentiment has soured further after Friday’s GBP/USD flash crash plunge. Data will again play no role in the direction for this week and based on current momentum we see little reason to expect this move to halt in short term. NZD resistance levels (GBP support) are very hard to peg. Volatility will remain high.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
NZD/GBP .5772 .5650 .5830 .5615 - .5945
GBP/NZD 1.7325 1.7153 1.7700 1.6821 - 1.7811

Friday 7th October 2:30pm(NZT)
Update : The markets saw a dramatic drop in the GBP for now apparent reason. It appears there was NO new news to market and sources are trying to identify the trigger. Hours earlier there had been stern warning from French PM Hollande with regards to Brexit implications for the UK, but these had been on the wires for quite sometime prior to the fall. Some kind of electronic mistake can not be ruled out. What is clear is that the market is VERY weary of risks to the GBP and lower levels of liquidity mean that moves can be accentuated at times.
 
The New Zealand dollar has had a choppy week of trade against the UK pound this week. Early highs were seen around .5715 (1.7498 lows) as negative Brexit headlines dominated sentiment towards the GBP. A sharp sell-off was seen on the back of the fall in the NZD/USD exchange rate mid week which saw the cross retrace by almost 2%. However, it has once again moved higher in recent trade after the GBP again fell heavily overnight. Data considerations have had little bearing on the cross this week whilst next week’s focus will be on the BoE interest rate decision. Momentum for now points to further NZD gains, although expect volatile ranges.
The current interbank midrate is:    NZDGBP .5745    GBPNZD 1.7406

The interbank range this week has been:    NZDGBP .5581 - .5945    GBPNZD 1.6821 - 1.7918
Tuesday 4th October 3:00pm(NZT)
Bearish sentiment towards the GBP (Brexit headline related) has pushed the UK pound to the top of its post UK EU exit vote range against the New Zealand dollar again in recent trade. Momentum remains dictated by events/headlines in the UK presently and ushers in the prospect of additional gains from the NZD should the GBP remain under pressure. UK PMI indicators along with a speech from the RBNZ’s Wheeler (and the latest GDT dairy auction) are the events to watch this week. We are unsure of the next move given the considerable uncertainty around the timing/nature of headlines coming out on the UK EU exit issue.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
NZD/GBP .5670 .5560 .5700 .5562 - .5674
GBP/NZD 1.7637 1.7545 1.7985 1.7652 - 1.7980

Friday 30th September 2:30pm(NZT)
The New Zealand dollar has had a mixed week in trade against the UK pound this week. The strong rally from support at .5560 (1.7986 resistance) terminated ahead of .5650 (1.7699) during the week. This came on the back of the reversal in the strong rally in the NZD/USD exchange rate and moderate recovery in the GBP after the negative Brexit headlines at the start of the week. Look to revised UK GDP and business investment data for direction today, whilst on Monday we will see the UK Manufacturing PMI release. We continue to favour taking advantage of spikes in the NZD to cover GBP requirements near current levels.
The current interbank midrate is:    NZDGBP 0.5589    GBPNZD 1.7898

The interbank range this week has been:    NZDGBP 0.5562 - 0.5648    GBPNZD 1.7706 - 1.7980
Tuesday 27th September 3:00pm(NZT)
The New Zealand dollar has rallied against the UK pound since our commentary on Friday. The move comes on the back of the relative weakness in the GBP which has eased on the back of sentiment over the difficulty that the UK will have when it begins formal talks on an EU exit, especially over access to the European single market. Data considerations look relatively quiet for the pair this week, at least until Friday when we receive data on UK GDP. We continue to favour targeting present GBP weakness to cover short-term GBP requirements, although current momentum suggests last week’s highs could potentially again be revisited over coming weeks.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
NZD/GBP 0.5609 0.5560 0.5675 0.5564 - 0.5677
GBP/NZD 1.7827 1.7621 1.7986 1.7614 - 1.7972

Friday 23rd September 2:00pm(NZT)
The New Zealand dollar has eased marginally against the UK pound this week, although not before setting fresh cyclical highs around .5675 (1.7621 lows). The sharp reversal was seen on Wednesday morning after the disappointing GDT dairy auction and continued after yesterday’s mildly more dovish than expected RBNZ OCR statement. We continue to favour the GBP over the NZD, especially at levels near this week’s highs, although the continuing Brexit exit uncertainty clouds the outlook. Expect a quiet week next week, at least until Friday’s UK data. First NZD support is not evident until .5450 (1.8349 resistance).
The current interbank midrate is:    NZDGBP 0.5576    GBPNZD 1.7933

The interbank range this week has been:    NZDGBP 0.5521 - 0.5677    GBPNZD 1.7614 - 1.8112
Tuesday 20th September 2:00pm(NZT)
The New Zealand dollar has rallied strongly against the UK pound since our report on Friday. The move reflects the fall in the pound after Friday’s (Brexit) reports on the need for the UK to exit the European market single membership in order to satisfy UK voter immigration demands. This week’s focus will be on the RBNZ OCR review on Thursday and earlier FOMC decision (watch of implications on financial markets should the Fed surprise and hike which may lead to ‘risk off’ NZD selling). Key resistance for this cross remains at .5650 (1.7699 support) at the multi-year NZD highs. We see current levels as again appearing attractive for short-term GBP buyers.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
NZD/GBP 0.5597 0.5450 0.5650 0.5477 - 0.5608
GBP/NZD 1.7867 1.7699 1.8349 1.7831 - 1.8260

Friday 16th September 2:30pm(NZT)
The New Zealand dollar sits largely unchanged in trade against the UK pound since Tuesday. This week has been notable for a lack of overall direction, although decent swings between ~.5540 (1.8034) and .5475 (1.8265) have been seen on the back of varying UK data and the response of the NZD to the sharp fall seen in global equities (risk selling). Look for next week to be dominated by Thursday’s RBNZ interest rate decision. Other interest will be on earlier the US FOMC meeting and NZ GDT dairy price data. For now we favour mixed trading in this cross until next Thursday.
The current interbank midrate is:    NZDGBP 0.5524    GBPNZD 1.8103

The interbank range this week has been:    NZDGBP 0.5477 - 0.5567    GBPNZD 1.7964 - 1.8260
Tuesday 13th September 1:30pm(NZT)
The New Zealand dollar has eased against the UK pound since our report last week. The move comes in the aftermath of Friday’s comments from US Fed officials which raised the prospects for a Fed hike later this month and saw investors desert equities and the risk currencies (like the NZD) in favour of the greenback. The comments have seen the GBP outperform the NZD in the interim, although some recovery has been seen in recent hours in the wake of other Fed official commentary. Look for a busy week this week starting with numbers on UK inflation today. Expect further reaction to UK employment numbers tomorrow and NZ GDP/ the BoE on Thursday.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
NZD/GBP 0.5515 0.5450 0.5600 0.5482 - 0.5604
GBP/NZD 1.8131 1.7857 1.8349 1.7843 - 1.8242

Thursday 8th September 2:30pm(NZT)
The New Zealand dollar has rallied sharply against the UK pound this week. The move comes as investors continue to chase the yield and commodity appeal (the latter based on the strong dairy price recovery) of the NZD in the wake of further soft US data released this week. Events in the UK this week included soft manufacturing numbers and dovish overtures in the BoE inflation report hearings. Expect a quieter end to the week with focus for next week to turn to UK inflation on Tuesday, UK employment on Wednesday and NZ GDP/BoE rate decision on Thursday. Critical key resistance to this move remains in the .5630/50 zone (1.7762/1.7699 support).
The current interbank midrate is:    NZDGBP 0.5592    GBPNZD 1.7884

The interbank range this week has been:    NZDGBP 0.5452 - 0.5598    GBPNZD 1.7863 - 1.8341
Tuesday 6th September 3:30pm(NZT)
The New Zealand dollar is trading largely unchanged against the UK pound since our report on Friday. Highs in the interim have been limited to ahead of .5520 (lows 1.8116) and came during the spike over the US employment data on Friday. The solid performance of the NZD reflects the relative yield appeal in the wake of the reduced Fed rate hike expectations, although is a touch surprising given the further solid UK data that we have had since our report on Friday. We continue to favour taking advantage of selling NZD spikes in this cross to buy the GBP. Items of interest this week include data on dairy prices tonight (NZ) and in the UK numbers on manufacturing and the BoE inflation report hearings/speech from Governor Carney) tomorrow.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
NZD/GBP 0.5486 0.5450 0.5520 0.5452 - 0.5547
GBP/NZD 1.8229 1.8116 1.8349 1.8027 - 1.8341

Friday 2nd September 2:30pm(NZT)
The New Zealand dollar has fallen against the UK pound in trade this week. Better than expected UK manufacturing numbers overnight drove the move which saw recent support at .5490 (1.7953 resistance) break. NZD lows around the .5450 level (1.8349 highs) were seen on the move and we now expect selling to limit the NZ dollar upside in the .5490/.5520 (1.7953/1.8116) zone, given the recent momentum (perhaps .5540/1.8051 at a stretch). Immediate volatility will come from tonight’s UK construction and US employment data. Indicators of interest start next week with the UK manufacturing and service PMI reads on Monday.
The current interbank midrate is:    NZDGBP 0.5489    GBPNZD 1.8218

The interbank range this week has been:    NZDGBP 0.5452 - 0.5573    GBPNZD 1.7944 - 1.8341
Tuesday 30th August 2:00pm(NZT)
The New Zealand dollar is trading at similar levels against the UK pound to those reported on Friday. Some volatility was noted towards the end of the week on the fall-out of the Jackson Hole comments (on the USD) as the GBP continued to remain more relatively in demand than the NZD. This is a natural reaction as the prospect of higher USD rates in the future impacted on the relatively higher yielding NZD. Economic leads for a potential move this week start in the UK on Thursday (Manufacturing PMI) so for now we favour more trade in the .5490-.5570 (1.7953-1.8215) range until then.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
NZD/GBP 0.5533 0.5490 0.5570 0.5499 - 0.5573
GBP/NZD 1.8073 1.7953 1.8215 1.7944 - 1.8186

Friday 26th August 3:30pm(NZT)
The New Zealand dollar has eased marginally against the UK pound in trade this week, although a lack of any critical news from either country has meant moves so far have been slight. This may change as trade closes for the week with the second read of the UK GDP tonight and headlines which will come out of the Jackson Hole meeting in the US. We continue to favour buying GBP over the NZD on any rallies in this cross although for now a break of .5490 (1.8215) looks required to increase the speed of any downside move.
The current interbank midrate is:    NZDGBP 0.5536    GBPNZD 1.8065

The interbank range this week has been:    NZDGBP 0.5511 - 0.5572    GBPNZD 1.7946 - 1.8146
Tuesday 23rd August 1:30pm(NZT)
The New Zealand dollar is trading near those levels reported on Friday in current trade against the UK pound. There have been no economic leads of note since Friday which has meant the cross has been bounded within a range that has seen it twice fail around .5570 (1.7953), including on this morning’s RBNZ Wheeler driven NZD spike. There is little to drive the cross this week although Friday’s second read of the UK Q2 GDP could offer up some volatility. Look also for any comments coming out of the Jackson Hole central banker meeting at the end of the week. We favour taking advantage of spikes in this cross to buy GBP for now.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
NZD/GBP 0.5556 0.5490 0.5650 0.5514 - 0.5635
GBP/NZD 1.7998 1.7699 1.8215 1.7747 - 1.8134

Friday 19th August 1:30pm(NZT)
The New Zealand dollar has fallen against the UK pound this week after having again reversed ahead of the key resistance level at .5650 (1.7699 support) during the week. Highs this week matched those from last week around the .5630/35 level (1.7762/1.7746) which indicates additional layers of supply ahead of .5650. Data during the week has been positive for both countries although the extent of short positioning in the GBP has seen its gains exceed those of the NZD on the upside data surprises. Expect a quiet week next week at least until Friday’s UK GDP data. We continue to favour buying GBP over NZD given the stubborn topside resistance.
The current interbank midrate is:    NZDGBP 0.5529    GBPNZD 1.8088

The interbank range this week has been:    NZDGBP 0.5523 - 0.5635    GBPNZD 1.7747 - 1.8105
Tuesday 16th August 1:30pm(NZT)
The New Zealand dollar has continued to advance against the UK pound since our last report. The move comes on the back of the weak support for the GBP in recent trade, whilst in contrast demand for the NZD remains elevated via yield and commodity exposure appeal. Data risk for the cross is high this week and will start with numbers on UK inflation later today and employment from both countries tomorrow. Retail data from the UK on Thursday and tonight’s GDT dairy auction should carry a more minor weighting. Key resistance on the NZD topside remains at the multi-peak .5650 highs (1.7699 lows).
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
NZD/GBP 0.5592 0.5490 0.5650 0.5476 - 0.5623
GBP/NZD 1.7883 1.7699 1.8215 1.7785 - 1.8261

Friday 12th August 2:30pm(NZT)
The New Zealand dollar has rallied against the UK pound in trade this week. Momentum from weaker than expected UK data earlier in the week culminated with a further surge in the cross yesterday on the back of the NZD rally which was seen after the RBNZ’s OCR review. The move came after the market saw the statement as insufficiently dovish given the extent of interest rate cuts already factored. NZD highs around .5635 (1.7746 lows) which were seen briefly after the announcement fell marginally short of those highs seen a month ago. This level which ~ also matches the April 2013 highs forms significant resistance to the NZ dollar topside and has us favouring buying GBP over the NZD for now. Look for the UK data on Tuesday for fresh direction next week.
The current interbank midrate is:    NZDGBP 0.5548    GBPNZD 1.8024

The interbank range this week has been:    NZDGBP 0.5417 - 0.5623    GBPNZD 1.7785 - 1.8459
Tuesday 9th August 2:30pm(NZT)
The New Zealand dollar continues to trade with a firm tone against the UK pound in trade this week. The demand reflects the weakness that has been seen in the GBP after last week’s more dovish than expected BoE central bank meeting on Thursday. Look for Thursday’s RBNZ monetary policy statement to set direction for this week and over the day’s following. Momentum for now favours the NZ dollar topside, although the reaction of the cross will depend on whether the RBNZ can now satiate the market’s call for around 40 bps of further cuts after this week’s likely 25 bps reduction.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
NZD/GBP 0.5492 0.5350 0.5550 0.5361 - 0.5495
GBP/NZD 1.8207 1.8018 1.8692 1.8199 - 1.8652

Friday 5th August 12:30pm(NZT)
The New Zealand dollar has rallied against the UK pound this week after reversing its mid week losses. This came on the back of the more dovish than expected BoE monetary policy statement which pushed the GBP sharply lower in trade overnight. Lows ahead of .5350 (1.8692 highs) were seen prior to the announcement and for now this NZD advance has stalled around .5480 (1.8248). First resistance beyond this level is eyed at the .5550 (support 1.8018) level. The first key local lead for this cross comes in the form of the UK manufacturing data on Tuesday next week, although the RBNZ decision and statement on Thursday carry a far greater weight.
The current interbank midrate is:    NZDGBP 0.5469    GBPNZD 1.8284

The interbank range this week has been:    NZDGBP 0.5361 - 0.5482    GBPNZD 1.8242 - 1.8652
Tuesday 2nd August 3:00pm(NZT)
The New Zealand dollar has continued to advance in trade against the UK pound since our report on Friday. The move comes as the NZD rallied strongly in response to weaker than expected US data on Friday, as the market further reduced expectations of a US rate hike in 2016. The reaction reflects the greater demand for high yielding currencies like the NZD in a world of low interest rates and comes as expectations of a BoE rate cut on Thursday remain high. Expect the outcomes of this meeting to drive trade this week. Second (and key) NZ dollar resistance is seen at .5650 (support 1.7699).
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
NZD/GBP 0.5436 0.5250 0.5550 0.5335 - 0.5467
GBP/NZD 1.8397 1.8018 1.9048 1.8290 - 1.8745

Friday 29th July 1:45pm(NZT)
The New Zealand dollar has drifted higher against the UK pound this week. Data from the UK was mixed ,although indicators on confidence and evidence from the property and automotive sector points to widespread concerns in the aftermath of the Brexit vote. Key support remains at .5250 (1.9048 resistance) level whilst so far minor resistance at the .5400 (1.8519 support) has capped the gains. This level looks under threat currently as momentum to the NZD topside quietly builds. Next Thursday’s BoE meeting will be pivotal for the GBP, expect a 25 bps easing and the chance of other more unconventional easing measures.
The current interbank midrate is:    NZDGBP 0.5393    GBPNZD 1.8542

The interbank range this week has been:    NZDGBP 0.5265 - 0.5400    GBPNZD 1.8518 - 1.8992
Tuesday 26th July 2:00pm(NZT)
The New Zealand dollar has rallied against the UK pound since our last commentary. PMI data from the UK on Friday was marked by weakness from the month prior, although the prints were mixed when measured against expectations. The move higher comes on the back of a 7% NZ dollar decline over the last two weeks from the highs to the lows and has us favouring more mixed trading (rather than directional) in the weeks ahead. Key support is noted at .5250 ( resistance 1.9048). UK Q2 GDP data tomorrow is the key release to watch this week, although given it is made up largely prior to the Brexit vote we would be surprised to see it move the cross materially.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
NZD/GBP .5340 .5250 .5400 .5250 - .5395
GBP/NZD 1.8725 1.8519 1.9050 1.8536 - 1.9049

Friday 22nd July 1:00pm(NZT)
The New Zealand dollar sits largely unchanged against the UK pound since our last report. Lows around .5250 (1.9048 highs) were seen during the week after sound UK data earlier in the week (inflation and employment) were followed by comments from the RBNZ which expressed discontent over the high level of the NZD. These comments have raised the stakes for rates moving under 2.00% in NZ in time as the central bank moves to target interest rates as a means to lower the value of the NZD and bolster inflation. GDP in the UK next Wednesday and the UK manufacturing/services PMI numbers later today are the immediate items of focus for this cross in coming days. We have little bias from here, although the bounce off .5250 (1.9048) could signal some relief from the recent sell-off.
The current interbank midrate is:    NZDGBP 0.5280    GBPNZD 1.8941

The interbank range this week has been:    NZDGBP 0.5250 - 0.5433    GBPNZD 1.8405 - 1.9049
Tuesday 19th July 1:00pm(NZT)
The New Zealand dollar has remained under pressure against the UK pound in trade this week. Recent influences have included yesterday’s lower than expected NZ Q2 inflation data and moves by the RBNZ this morning to introduce further macro-prudential measures to curb lending to NZ’s heated housing sector. Both of which have served to further heighten the prospect of a rate cut in August. Look for influence on the cross to come from the UK initially today as we receive the latest inflation data. Further data from the UK comes in the form of indicators on employment tomorrow whilst the key events to watch will round out with the RBNZ economic release on Thursday (9am NZT) and later retail sales data from the UK.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
NZD/GBP .5305 .5250 .5430 .5300 - .5574
GBP/NZD 1.8850 1.8416 1.9048 1.7941 - 1.8868

Friday 15th July 2:00pm(NZT)
The New Zealand dollar has continued to fall sharply against the UK pound as this week progressed. Influences include the high level of the NZD on many crosses and the move by the RBNZ to schedule a special economic market update next Thursday. GBP strength has come as the BoE left rates on hold overnight, and as concerns over the lasting fall-out of a Brexit reduce after the ruling Conservative party quickly moved to succeed a new PM this week. Expect another busy week next week which starts with numbers on NZ inflation on Monday. Scheduled UK events include its own inflation numbers on Tuesday, employment on Wednesday and data on the retail sector on Thursday. The move this week is a strong  indication of a medium-term peak in this cross.
The current interbank midrate is:    NZDGBP 0.5357    GBPNZD 1.8666

The interbank range this week has been:    NZDGBP 0.5356 - 0.5644    GBPNZD 1.7719 - 1.8672
Tuesday 12th July 1:00pm(NZT)
The New Zealand dollar has eased against the UK pound since our last report, although not before re-challenged those highs last seen in April 2013 (.5645, 1.7715). The easing comes on the back of the move higher in the GBP in trade overnight in the face of a buoyant USD (which saw the NZD/USD ease from its closing highs last week). Look to the BoE interest rate meeting this Thursday for direction on the week. Expect reasonable volatility given the varied expectations of the likely response from the bank in the new post Brexit vote UK. We continue to see the recent NZD/GBP highs as offering good short term GBP buying levels.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
NZD/GBP 0.5566 0.5330 0.5650 0.5429 - 0.5645
GBP/NZD 1.7967 1.7699 1.8762 1.7716 - 1.8420

Friday 8th July 12:00pm(NZT)
The New Zealand dollar has continued to surge against the UK pound in trade this week. The latest move comes on the back of the advance in the NZD in reaction to the lame response from the RBNZ at advancing further macro-prudential housing measures. Confidence falls in the UK has continued to heap pressure on the GBP, this as several UK property funds have moved to stop redemptions in the face of plunging confidence in the sector and across the economy in general. We continue to favour buying NZD dollar dips in this cross, although in the short term the April 2016 highs around .5645 (lows 1.7715) look attractive for those needing to buy GBP.
The current interbank midrate is:    NZDGBP 0.5601    GBPNZD 1.7853

The interbank range this week has been:    NZDGBP 0.5338 - 0.5606    GBPNZD 1.7837 - 1.8733
Tuesday 5th July 2:00pm(NZT)
The New Zealand dollar continues to march higher against the UK pound in trade this week. The move reflects the relative safety of the high yielding NZD when viewed against the prospect for the GBP, which is likely to suffer from protracted economic and political uncertainty and lower rates post the EU vote. We see little likelihood of change and favour buying NZ dollar dips in this cross in reaction to any correction/profit taking. UK events form the focus this week and start with the BoE Financial Stability report and a speech from the BoE Governor Mark Carney today.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
NZD/GBP 0.5432 0.5330 0.5650 0.5258 - 0.5448
GBP/NZD 1.8409 1.7699 1.8762 1.8357 - 1.9020

Friday 1st July 3:00pm(NZT)
Friday’s decision by UK voters to leave the EU has continued to heap pressure on the GBP this week. Respite for the local currency noted earlier in the week was helped after moves by the BoE to inject liquidity into the financial system. The gains proved short lived after BoE Governor Mark Carney indicated yesterday that further policy easing will likely be required over the (northern) summer given the deteriorating UK economic outlook. The political landscape in the UK remains fractured after Friday’s Brexit vote. This as the Conservative party copes with the looming departure of PM Cameron and exit of pro-Brexit campaigner Boris Johnson from the leadership race, whilst in opposition the Labour party has seen more than 50 team members resign and its leader Jeremy Corbyn overwhelmingly lose a vote of no-confidence. The turmoil has had little impact on UK equities however, which has seen the FTSE 100 regain all of its Brexit inspired losses as it reached levels last seen in August last year. Economic data out of the UK this week included yesterday’s Q1 GDP report which showed the economy growing in line with expectations at 2% y/y, a number which was unchanged from the prior estimate. Credit data included a rise in mortgage approvals and mortgage lending for May, whilst net lending to individuals also rose from the month prior as all three releases exceeded their consensus. Look for Brexit sentiment to drive again next week. Data on the immediate horizon includes PMI manufacturing numbers today.
Impact on this currency pair:
The current interbank midrate is:    NZDGBP 0.5341    GBPNZD 1.8722

The interbank range this week has been:    NZDGBP 0.4930 - 0.5368    GBPNZD 1.8628 - 2.0285
Tuesday 28th June 2:00pm(NZT)
The decision on Friday by the UK to choose to leave the EU has seen the GBP plummet against the New Zealand dollar since the result. The move is a manifestation of the material re-rating in the GBP as the market discounts the prospects for the UK economy given the relative uncertainty it will experience over the months and years ahead. Look for this sentiment to dictate the trade ahead which has us favouring further NZD outperformance of the GBP over time should the UK proceed to exit. First NZD resistance may lie near the recent highs (~.5365, 1.8639), although further GBP weakness beckons the 2013 highs near .5650 (1.7699) in the weeks ahead. Support is seen at .5150 (1.9417 resistance) initially, although in reality the degree of volatility severely weakens the importance of such levels.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
NZD/GBP 0.5309 0.5150 0.5365 0.4828 - 0.5366
GBP/NZD 1.8837 1.8639 1.9417 1.8635 - 2.0712

Friday 24th June 3:00pm(NZT)
The New Zealand dollar remains largely unchanged against the UK pound since our report on Tuesday. The relative lack of volatility will change later today as the market moves to digest the incoming results of the UK EU referendum. Expect significant volatility during the day with final results likely to be known towards 7 a.m. London time. Expect the result to drive a significant shift over the days ahead which will likely easily  challenge immediate support (.4735, 2.1119 resistance) and resistance (.5010, 1.9960 support) levels.
The current interbank midrate is:    NZDGBP 0.4949    GBPNZD 2.0210

The interbank range this week has been:    NZDGBP 0.4828 - 0.4980    GBPNZD 2.0079 - 2.0712
Tuesday 21st June 2:00pm(NZT)
The New Zealand dollar has fallen against the UK pound since our report on Friday. The move comes after the latest swing in polling on the Brexit referendum over the weekend and yesterday, which showed a marked shift in favour of the ‘remain’ campaign. Look for this issue to dominate entirely over the course of the week as the UK heads to the polls on Thursday (closing at 10pm UK time). Results will begin to filter in within 2/3 hours of polling closing and expect significant volatility throughout the day. Initial resistance lies just above .5000 (2.0000 support) whilst first support lies around the .4735 (2.1119 resistance) level.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
NZD/GBP 0.4857 0.4735 0.5010 0.4834 - 0.5000
GBP/NZD 2.0588 1.9960 2.1119 2.0000 - 2.0685

Friday 17th June 3:00pm(NZT)
The New Zealand dollar has remained surprisingly well contained in trade against the UK pound this week. Volatility has been particularly high in the GBP/USD exchange rate over the week (as Brexit news comes to the market), whilst the NZD/USD exchange rate has also been buffeted by similar issues although jumped on the better than expected NZ Q1 GDP report yesterday. Expect a very volatile week next week with the UK referendum set down for the 23rd of June. Support and resistance levels are likely to be somewhat meaningless after the result although for a guide recent lows were limited ahead of .4550 (2.1978), whilst early 2015 highs which were set around .5200 (1.9231) should be tested in the event of a UK exit from the EU.
The current interbank midrate is:    NZDGBP 0.4951    GBPNZD 2.0196

The interbank range this week has been:    NZDGBP 0.4904 - 0.5008    GBPNZD 1.9970 - 2.0392
Tuesday 14th June 2:00pm(NZT)
The New Zealand dollar has advanced further against the UK pound since our last report. Once again the gains have been driven by the spectre of a UK exit from the EU after the latest polls have continued to show a lead by those in favour of the UK leaving the EU. Polling will again be pivotal this week whilst on the economic front events to note include NZ GDP, UK inflation today, UK employment tomorrow and the BoE meeting/UK retail sales on Thursday. Buying dips continues to be our favoured option ahead of the referendum although making calls on this cross is a lottery running into the 23rd referendum.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
NZD/GBP 0.4955 0.4900 0.5010 0.4725 - 0.5007
GBP/NZD 2.0181 1.9960 2.0408 1.9971 - 2.1164

Friday 10th June 3:00pm(NZT)
The New Zealand dollar has continued to strengthen against the UK pound since our report on Tuesday. Gains on the week now amount to over 2.5% and have come on the back of the strong surge seen in the NZD after yesterday’s RBNZ interest rate decision. Uncertainty over the UK EU referendum has continued to pressure the pound and has meant that the positive UK data this week has been understandably overlooked. Next resistance is now eyed at .5000 (2.0000 support) whilst demand is expected in the .4830/45 zone (2.0704/2.0640). Data of interest next week includes NZ GDP, and UK inflation and employment. We favour buying dips at present.
The current interbank midrate is:    NZDGBP 0.4915    GBPNZD 2.0346

The interbank range this week has been:    NZDGBP 0.4725 - 0.4935    GBPNZD 2.0262 - 2.1164
Tuesday 7th June 3:00pm(NZT)
The New Zealand dollar has continued to advance against the UK pound since our last report, although sits over 1% off its highs in current trade. The move continues to be a manifestation of the weak GBP (relative to the strong NZD) on the back of polls which are now showing a lead by UK voters who wish to leave the EU in the coming referendum. The NZD in contrast has felt the tail wind of the weaker USD since Friday’s US employment data miss. Resistance is now seen in the .4830/45 zone (2.0704/2.0640 support) whilst first support is now seen around .4735 (2.1119 resistance). Key events to watch this week are the RBNZ cash rate decision (Thursday), continued Brexit polling, and to a less extent UK manufacturing numbers tomorrow.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
NZD/GBP 0.4782 0.4735 0.4830 0.4572 - 0.4819
GBP/NZD 2.0913 2.0704 2.1119 2.0750 - 2.1871

Thursday 2nd June 1:30pm(NZT)
The New Zealand dollar has reversed strongly against the UK pound this week. Gains from the lows total 3.5% in current trade and come on the back of the poor showing by the GBP (mainly as NZ/AU data has supported the NZD) in the wake of a recent poll on the Brexit issue which showed a tight race between those in favour and those against the UK leaving the EU. Sudden swings in Brexit polling will make this cross very vulnerable to sharp (unpredictable) swings in the next three weeks. Some resistance is noted around the highs of recent hours (.4735, 2.1119 support) although better resistance lies around .4800 (2.0833 support). Support is seen around the recent swing lows (.4540, 2.2026 resistance).
The current interbank midrate is:    NZDGBP 0.4731    GBPNZD 2.1135

The interbank range this week has been:    NZDGBP 0.4546 - 0.4735    GBPNZD 2.1120 - 2.1999
Tuesday 31st May 2:30pm(NZT)
The New Zealand dollar continues to trade with a weak tone against the UK pound in current trade. Downtrend resistance points to rallies faltering in the .4600/.4625 zone (support 2.1739/2.1622), although shifts in the Brexit polling in coming days and weeks increase the vulnerability of support and resistance holds. We cautiously favour selling NZ dollar rallies at present and would be surprised if the economic data from either country this week is the forbearer of any meaningful reversal.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
NZD/GBP 0.4581 0.4540 0.4610 0.4546 - 0.4657
GBP/NZD 2.1827 2.1692 2.2026 2.1474 - 2.1999

Friday 27th May 2:00pm(NZT)
The New Zealand dollar has continued to lose ground to the UK Pound, in what has been choppy trading over the past week. The move over the past few weeks have been driven by both strength in the GBP, and some weakness in the NZD. I suspect however, that further strength in the GBP will now become much harder fought, with uncertainty around the ever approaching Brexit vote limiting further GBP gains. If we are to see the NZD continue to underperform, the driver will have to be NZD weakness. We did see a good bout of that yesterday in the wake of Fonterra’s announcement and this helped the pair to trade to a low of 0.4546 (highs 2.1998). Overnight however, the NZD has put in a sharp recovery back to 0.4600 (2.1740). Key downtrend resistance is now seen around 0.4660 (support 2.1460) and while below that level the risks are still skewed toward further NZ dollar losses.
The current interbank midrate is:    NZDGBP 0.4605    GBPNZD 2.1716

The interbank range this week has been:    NZDGBP 0.4546 - 0.4690    GBPNZD 2.1324 - 2.1999
Tuesday 24th May 2:00pm(NZT)
The New Zealand dollar has lifted against the UK pound since our report on Friday. Losses came last week on the back of polls that showed a shift in favour of the UK remaining in the EU. However, much of the GBP gains have eroded since on the back of comments from a BoE member later on Friday which suggested the UK’s economic issues extended well beyond Brexit concerns. We favour selling NZD and buying GBP overall. UK GDP data on Thursday is the only real economic event of interest this week. Second resistance is set near .4735 (2.1119 support).
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
NZD/GBP 0.4661 0.4595 0.4685 0.4598 - 0.4726
GBP/NZD 2.1454 2.1345 2.1763 2.1158 - 2.1749

Friday 20th May 3:00pm(NZT)
The New Zealand dollar has fallen against the UK pound this week. NZ dollar support at .4650 (2.1505 resistance), which has held declines since late February, broke this week on the back of polls which continued to show a shift in favour of the UK remaining with the EU. Some minor NZD support has formed at .4600 (resistance 2.1739), although we expect this to be transitory in nature and favour selling overall. First resistance now comes in at the former support level (.4650/2.1505) and then around .4685 (2.1345). Look for the GBP sentiment and UK data (mainly the GDP on Thursday) to dictate next week.
The current interbank midrate is:    NZDGBP 0.4633    GBPNZD 2.1585

The interbank range this week has been:    NZDGBP 0.4598 - 0.4737    GBPNZD 2.1110 - 2.1747
Tuesday 17th May 2:00pm(NZT)
The New Zealand dollar is drifting in current trade against the UK pound. UK data (inflation today, employment tomorrow) this week are the most likely events to cause volatility, although for the now the cross looks to be stuck in a holding pattern between .4650 and .4800 (2.1505 and 2.0833). We favour selling NZ dollars overall, weak resistance has formed near .4735 (2.1119 support) in recent days and could be used for more aggressive NZD sell orders.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
NZD/GBP 0.4690 0.4650 0.4800 0.4654 - 0.4737
GBP/NZD 2.1319 2.0833 2.1505 2.1110 - 2.1485

Friday 13th May 3:00pm(NZT)
The New Zealand dollar has rebounded in trade against the UK pound this week. Support at the .4650 (2.1505 resistance) level held and remains critical to any NZD further moves lower. The bounce came after further soft UK data and the Financial Stability report in NZ which was viewed as currency supportive. Resistance for the cross remains at .4800 (2.0833 support). Look for UK data to drive trade next week (inflation and unemployment). Current momentum gives us a sell bias overall, although we would target NZD sell orders closer to .4800 (2.0833).
The current interbank midrate is:    NZDGBP 0.4713    GBPNZD 2.1219

The interbank range this week has been:    NZDGBP 0.4654 - 0.4748    GBPNZD 2.1063 - 2.1485
Tuesday 10th May 2:00pm(NZT)
The New Zealand dollar has eased against the UK pound in trade since our report on Friday. The move comes on the back of the shift lower in the NZD/USD exchange rate overnight which fell through the key .6800 support level on the back of heavy selling in commodities and commodity currencies. Support at .4650 (2.1505 resistance) is now in sight, resistance is noted above .4800 (2.0833 support), although hourly trend-line resistance from last week highs may mean selling comes in as close as .4720 (2.1186) in the next couple of days. We favour selling NZ dollar rallies now. Events to watch are the NZ Financial Stability report tomorrow and the BoE meeting/inflation report on Thursday.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
NZD/GBP 0.4672 0.4650 0.4800 0.4670 - 0.4804
GBP/NZD 2.1405 2.0833 2.1505 2.0814 - 2.1413

Friday 6th May 2:00pm(NZT)
The New Zealand dollar is drifting in current trade against the UK pound. Highs this week have been limited to around .4800 (lows 2.0833) which should now be seen as the first resistance area. Key support remains at .4650 (2.1505 resistance), although we favour a drift higher given the recent soft data out of the UK. Of immediate interest will be tonight’s US data whilst next week will be dominated by the UK BoE monetary policy decision and the sentiment that prevails from the accompanying statement.
The current interbank midrate is:    NZDGBP 0.4752    GBPNZD 2.1045

The interbank range this week has been:    NZDGBP 0.4734 - 0.4804    GBPNZD 2.0814 - 2.1123
Tuesday 3rd May 2:20pm(NZT)
The New Zealand dollar is edging higher in current trade against the UK pound. Caution from the US Fed last week has lent support to higher yielding currencies like the NZD in recent trade. Sentiment has also been positive towards the NZD after last week’s more hawkish than expected RBNZ OCR statement. Key to whether the upwards momentum can continue will be tomorrow’s NZ employment data, commodity currency sentiment and the RBA cash rate decision this afternoon will also influence. Current momentum is higher for the NZD, although we lack a clear view on the next major swing.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
NZD/GBP 0.4800 0.4650 0.4860 0.4686 - 0.4804
GBP/NZD 2.0833 2.0576 2.1505 2.0816 - 2.1340

Friday 29th April 2:00pm(NZT)
The New Zealand dollar has swung sharply higher against the UK pound since our report on Tuesday. The move occurred on Thursday after the US FOMC meeting (which saw the Fed take a cautious stance on further rate normalization) and the NZ OCR review (rates were left on hold). The RBNZ statement had many pundits reducing their expectations for further rate cuts in NZ as the central bank grapples with strong housing and migration. This week’s NZD highs ahead of .4800 (lows 2.0833) are noted as the first resistance levels. Key support beyond the weekly lows remains at .4650 (2.1505). UK PMI and NZ employment data feature on the data calendar next week, although again look to the commodity environment for further insight. We favour a drift lower from the NZD over the days ahead.
The current interbank midrate is:    NZDGBP 0.4760    GBPNZD 2.1007

The interbank range this week has been:    NZDGBP 0.4686 - 0.4835    GBPNZD 2.0685 - 2.1340
Tuesday 26th April 2:20pm(NZT)
The New Zealand dollar has continued to move lower against the UK pound since our report on Friday. Weaknesses in the commodity currencies when combined with the positive momentum being enjoyed by the GBP as the market’s perception on the risks of a Brexit reduce have led to decline. Critical for the cross this week will be the NZ OCR decision on Thursday. A break of trendline support from Nov. 2015 has us favouring a move lower now targeting .4650 (2.1505) initially. Resistance to a swing higher should invite selling towards and just above .4800 ( support 2.0833) initially.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
NZD/GBP 0.4739 0.4650 0.4910 0.4722 - 0.4910
GBP/NZD 2.1100 2.0367 2.1505 2.0367 - 2.1176

Friday 22nd April 2:00pm(NZT)
The New Zealand has fallen against the UK pound this week after peaking above .4900 (2.0408 lows) towards the middle of the week. Once again it has been commodity considerations over local data which has been the driver this week, this as both the UK employment and retail sales releases underperformed expectations during the week. Polls which favour Britain remaining within the EU have likely helped the GBP over the week however. Key events to watch for the cross next week are the UK GDP data on Wednesday and following RBNZ OCR decision. For now we favour buying NZ dollars ahead of .4750 support (2.1053 resistance).
The current interbank midrate is:    NZDGBP .4829    GBPNZD 2.0710

The interbank range this week has been:    NZDGBP .4819 - .4910    GBPNZD 2.0367 - 2.0752
Tuesday 19th April 2:40pm(NZT)
The New Zealand dollar has edged higher against the UK pound since our last report. Both the GBP and NZD have enjoyed solid gains this week against the USD, although a strong rebound in commodities (led by oil) and a break of prior March resistance in the NZD/USD exchange rate in recent hours have helped fuel the momentum. For now we continue to expect this NZD to move higher targeting .5000 (2.0000) over the days and weeks ahead, led by continued enthusiasm for commodities. Data considerations of interest this week for the cross include the GDT dairy price auction tonight, UK employment data tomorrow and UK retail sales data on Thursday.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
NZD/GBP 0.4887 0.4825 0.4900 0.4805 - 0.4899
GBP/NZD 2.0746 2.0408 2.0725 2.0414 - 2.0810

Friday 15th April 2:00pm(NZT)
The New Zealand dollar is again largely unchanged against the UK pound since our last report. Gains to highs near .4880 (lows 2.0492) have been seen over the week, although the losses in the NZD occurred via the NZD/AUD cross selling. Look for the NZ inflation data on Monday to provide the next impetus for a move in the cross. That aside we favour a continued drift higher over time. First support is seen at .4750 (2.1052 resistance).
The current interbank midrate is:    NZDGBP 0.4849    GBPNZD 2.0622

The interbank range this week has been:    NZDGBP 0.4796 - 0.4879    GBPNZD 2.0494 - 2.0851
Tuesday 12th April 2:30pm(NZT)
The New Zealand dollar is largely unchanged in trade against the UK pound since our last report. This comes on the back of quiet event calendars, although the GBP did manage to shrug off weak Industrial and manufacturing production data on Friday. UK inflation numbers tonight are the immediate focus for the cross. We have little bias ahead of this data and expect immediate support and resistance to continue to bound the cross this week.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
NZD/GBP 0.4820 0.4750 0.4860 0.4760 - 0.4857
GBP/NZD 2.0746 2.0576 2.1052 2.0588 - 2.1007

Friday 8th April 2:00pm(NZT)
The New Zealand dollar has lifted slightly against the UK pound in trade since our last report as continued concerns over a Brexit continue to weigh on the GBP. Declines towards the middle of the week failed to breach the .4750 (2.1052) level which is now seen as first minor NZ dollar support. Resistance is still pegged at .4860 (2.0576 support). UK data should drive the cross next week, although Brexit and risk/commodity concerns will continue to be important.
The current interbank midrate is:    NZDGBP 0.4821    GBPNZD 2.0744

The interbank range this week has been:    NZDGBP 0.4760 - 0.4862    GBPNZD 2.0570 - 2.1007
Tuesday 5th April 2:30pm(NZT)
The New Zealand dollar has fallen against the GBP in recent trade. Declines have been seen this week so far and have come on the back of an overnight move lower in commodity prices and from a poor latest NZIER business confidence reading this morning. It is a relatively light week for data from both countries this week, although of interest tonight will be the GDT dairy price auction and UK Services PMI releases. Friday’s UK data which includes manufacturing and industrial production numbers could also cause some volatility. If the pressure on the NZ continues, we expect this move lower to decelerate ahead of .4700 (2.1277) this week.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
NZD/GBP 0.4767 0.4650 0.4860 0.4718 - 0.4862
GBP/NZD 2.0981 2.0576 2.1505 2.0570 - 2.1193

Friday 1st April 3:30pm(NZT)
The New Zealand dollar has lifted against the UK pound in trade this week. The move comes after both currencies have benefitted from a lower USD which fell across the board after the Fed Chair Janet Yellen’s speech. The gains in the NZD have come about over the continued concerns from a Brexit which was again highlighted this week by the BoE Financial Policy Committee. Adding to the NZD performance was demand from likely technical buyers when the NZD/USD broke the old strong resistance pegged around .6900. Resistance to this up-move lies around the weekly highs in the .4840/50 (support 2.0661/2.0619) region. Support is eyed around .4780 (2.0921 resistance) initially.
The current interbank midrate is:    NZDGBP 0.4817    GBPNZD 2.0760

The interbank range this week has been:    NZDGBP 0.4713 - 0.4842    GBPNZD 2.0654 - 2.1219
Tuesday 29th March 2:30pm(NZT)
The New Zealand dollar is sitting largely unchanged against the UK pound since our report last week. This comes after a quiet period over the holiday break which saw last week’s rally limited to highs around .4760 (lows 2.1008). Weaker than expected UK inflation numbers and elevated Brexit fears post the Brussels terrorist attacks helped the NZ dollar move towards its highs for the week. The gains moderated later in the week after a better than expected UK retail sales report. It should be a relatively quiet week this week for the cross, although UK GDP data is noted on Thursday.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
NZD/GBP 0.4725 0.4650 0.4780 0.4695 - 0.4764
GBP/NZD 2.1165 2.0921 2.1505 2.0990 - 2.1299

Tuesday 22nd March 3:30pm(NZT)
The New Zealand dollar has largely drifted against the UK pound since our report on Friday. Notable gains were seen after the US Fed meeting last week however. These came mainly on the back of reduced liquidity in the NZD, although the weakening USD helped the commodities space generally. The softer tone since the BoE meeting ceased overnight as the GBP weakened on the back of rising political uncertainty fears. Look for UK events to dictate this week starting with inflation numbers tonight. We favour support at .4650 (2.1505 resistance) to hold any NZD declines on the week.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
NZD/GBP 0.4707 0.4650 0.4780 0.4654 - 0.4781
GBP/NZD 2.1245 2.0921 2.1505 2.0914 - 2.1487

Friday 18th March 1:30pm(NZT)
The New Zealand dollar has had a volatile week of trade against the UK pound this week. Although once again critical support at the .4650 (2.1505 resistance) level has held. Reduced liquidity in the NZD/USD exchange rate post the FOMC meeting (which induced heavy USD selling) has seen the cross move up to NZD  highs around the .4780 (2.0921) level since. However, the NZD has moved lower overnight after the UK BoE central bank meeting. This saw the GBP move higher after the BoE indicated that the next move in rates would be up, contrary to the expectations of many who had anticipated a more dovish message based around the recent global financial market uncertainty. UK data is of note next week (inflation and retail sales) although liquidity in the NZD and commodity price drivers will again be important.
The current interbank midrate is:    NZDGBP 0.4718    GBPNZD 2.1195

The interbank range this week has been:    NZDGBP 0.4653 - 0.4782    GBPNZD 2.0912 - 2.1494
Tuesday 15th March 1:30pm(NZT)
The New Zealand dollar continues to trade with a weak tone against the UK pound in current trade. This is a continuation of the theme which was set after last week’s surprise move by the RBNZ to cut interest rates on Thursday. Some reprieve for the cross was noted on Friday as the NZD/USD followed the AUD/USD higher, this came on the back of a strong move higher again in commodities (CRB index +1%). This week we again look forward to more volatility, employment data is due from the UK tomorrow, whilst GDP data from NZ will follow on Thursday. The earlier FOMC announcement may also give cause for further commodity price volatility. First NZD support is seen at .4650 (2.1505 resistance), a break of here should open .4600 (2.1739) and .4550 (2.1978).
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
NZD/GBP 0.4676 0.4650 0.4720 0.4652 - 0.4787
GBP/NZD 2.1387 2.1186 2.1505 2.0892 - 2.1495

Friday 11th March 1:30pm(NZT)
The New Zealand dollar has fallen sharply against the UK pound this week. The vast majority of the decline occurred yesterday on the back of the RBNZ’s surprise move to cut interest rates by 25 bps, a move that came much earlier than expected by most in the market. Further cuts for 2016 now look likely. The dovish policy outlook for the NZD has us favouring selling rallies in this cross over the weeks ahead. Next week should be busy with employment data due from the UK to be followed by Q4 GDP data from NZ. We favour selling ahead of .4700 (2.1277), whilst a break of .4650 (2.1505) should open much lower levels starting with the first target of .4600 (2.1739).
The current interbank midrate is:    NZDGBP 0.4670    GBPNZD 2.1414

The interbank range this week has been:    NZDGBP 0.4652 - 0.4799    GBPNZD 2.0840 - 2.1495
Friday 4th March 6:00pm(NZT)
The New Zealand dollar has largely tracked side-ways overall against the U.K. pound in trade this week. This comes on the back of gains in the GBP/USD exchange rate being balanced by gains in the NZD/USD exchange rate. The GBP has benefitted from the oversold position seen last week as the Brexit fears gripped the market whilst the NZD has benefitted from the much improved sentiment displayed towards commodity currencies over the course of the week. U.K. industrial and manufacturing data feature next week, although these are likely to have a secondary impact compared to the RBNZ interest rate decision on Thursday. First NZ dollar support is seen at .4700 (2.1277 resistance), some resistance has formed this week at .4775 (2.0942 support).
The current interbank midrate is:    NZDGBP 0.4743    GBPNZD 2.1083

The interbank range this week has been:    NZDGBP 0.4706 - 0.4846    GBPNZD 2.0634 - 2.1247
Tuesday 1st March 2:30pm(NZT)
The New Zealand dollar has fallen sharply against the U.K. pound since our last report. Last week’s strong Brexit inspired gains reversed in trade on Friday ahead of .4850 (2.0619) and accelerated on the back of the sharp decline seen in the NZD/USD exchange rate after the slew of better than expected U.S. data. Sentiment towards the NZD has remained soft this week after the release of a bearish report by the ANZ on the NZ economy and soft business confidence/building consent data released yesterday. The move is now challenging support at .4720 (2.1186 resistance) which established last week. U.K. manufacturing and NZ dairy price data feature on the economic calendar this week. Support below .4720 (above 2.1186) lies at .4650 (2.1505).
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
NZD/GBP 0.4740 0.4720 0.4850 0.4723 - 0.4846
GBP/NZD 2.1097 2.0619 2.1186 2.0634 - 2.1172

Friday 26th February 2:00pm(NZT)
The New Zealand dollar rally against the U.K. pound has continued in an unabated fashion this week. The gains come on the back of the continued uncertainty surrounding the potential exit of the U.K. from the European Union, and to a lesser extent the more supportive environment seen this week for risk and commodity currencies. Next resistance to this move is pegged in the .4900/.4915 zone (2.0408/2.0346), support this week has emerged around .4720 (2.1186 resistance). Data considerations next week which include U.K. manufacturing and N.Z. dairy price data are again likely to take back seat to changes in Brexit sentiment. We favour higher NZ dollar levels in the week ahead.
The current interbank midrate is:    NZDGBP 0.4828    GBPNZD 2.0711

The interbank range this week has been:    NZDGBP 0.4603 - 0.4836    GBPNZD 2.0678 - 2.1724
Tuesday 23th February 4:00pm(NZT)
The New Zealand dollar has rallied strongly against the U.K. pound in trade so far this week. This comes after the resistance around .4650/60 (2.1505/2.1459 support) broke during trade yesterday, mainly on the back of the very poor showing of the GBP/USD exchange rate. The GBP fell heavily in opening trade yesterday over continued concerns of a British exit from the EU which have heightened since last week’s UK/EU summit on the subject. Buying of commodity currencies overnight helped push the NZD to its highest levels since May 2015 against the GBP. We favour additional NZD gains in the near-term based on a continuation of this theme, although would prefer entries nearer prior resistance (.4660 support, 2.1459 resistance).
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
NZD/GBP 0.4736 0.4660 0.4775 0.4546 - 0.4768
GBP/NZD 2.1112 2.0942 2.1459 2.0971 - 2.1999

Friday 19th February 2:00pm(NZT)
The New Zealand dollar has tested the extremities of its recent ranges against the U.K. pound this week. The resistance around and just above .4650 (support 2.1505) continues to hold for the time being, although NZD support at .4550 (2.1978) also held at the start of the week. We marginally favour a NZ dollar upside push based on the repeated tests of NZD resistance and soft hue of incoming U.K. data. Positive risk sentiment is a continued proviso for this view, a view which may also be pushed by the U.K. GDP data on Thursday (we view as unlikely though).
The current interbank midrate is:    NZDGBP 0.4629    GBPNZD 2.1604

The interbank range this week has been:    NZDGBP 0.4546 - 0.4662    GBPNZD 2.1452 - 2.1999
Tuesday 16th February 2:00pm(NZT)
The rally in the New Zealand dollar against the U.K. pound has again failed to break the key .4650 (2.1505) level over recent days. The lack of participation by the NZD/USD exchange rate in the improving risk sentiment (after the better than expected U.S. data on Friday) was a key reason behind the sell-off from the NZD resistance. The .4550 (2.1978) level holds the key to further NZ dollar declines. A miss in the N.Z. retail sales data has seen the NZD dip again this morning. The next 36 hours will be key to the next move given the release of key U.K. data and the latest in N.Z. dairy pricing.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
NZD/GBP 0.4600 0.4550 0.4650 0.4557 - 0.4653
GBP/NZD 2.1739 2.1505 2.1978 2.1490 - 2.1942

Friday 12th February 2:00pm(NZT)
Liquidity concerns in the NZD/USD exchange rate this week has been one of the primary drivers of the strength seen in the New Zealand dollar against the U.K pound. This comes on the back of heavy selling out of over-extended long USD positioning as the market has moved to further reduce the probability of Fed rate hikes this year. Softer than expected U.K. data has also played a part during the week. U.K. inflation and unemployment numbers will be key influences next week, likely more so than the N.Z. data which includes retail sales and dairy pricing. Resistance at .4650 (2.1505) appears under threat over coming days, a break of here should open .4750 (2.1053).
The current interbank midrate is:    NZDGBP 0.4635    GBPNZD 2.1575

The interbank range this week has been:    NZDGBP 0.4558 - 0.4653    GBPNZD 2.1490 - 2.1938
Tuesday 9th February 3:00pm(NZT)
The New Zealand dollar has remained largely range-bound against the U.K. pound since our last report. This comes after a lack of data from both regions, where declines in the NZD over the last 24 hours have largely matched those of the GBP. We continue to favour more of the same this week given the low-impact data calendar out of both countries, although a further deterioration in risk sentiment may put the NZD under additional pressure.  Support beyond .4550 (resistance 2.1978) lies around .4480 (2.2321) initially.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
NZD/GBP .4586 .4550 .4650 .4489 - .4630
GBP/NZD 2.1808 2.1505 2.1980 2.1596 - 2.2276

Friday 5th February 2:00pm(NZT)
The New Zealand dollar has marched higher against the U.K. pound this week, especially so over the last 48 hours on the back of the sharp rally in the NZD/USD exchange rate. This was seen after the better than expected local Q4 employment report and speech from the RBNZ Governor which alluded to a market preoccupation on headline inflation levels when considering future monetary policy settings. The target for this move (should it extend) is the late 2015 highs around the .4650 (lows 2.1505) level. Initial weak support should be seen around .4580 (resistance 2.1834) now, although we prefer to sell NZD overall near resistance levels. Data flow next week is light, although the U.K. industrial and manufacturing numbers should be of some interest.
The current interbank midrate is:    NZDGBP 0.4615    GBPNZD 2.1668

The interbank range this week has been:    NZDGBP 0.4489 - 0.4624    GBPNZD 2.1628 - 2.2276
Tuesday 2nd February 2:00pm(NZT)
The New Zealand dollar is drifting against the U.K. pound in current trade, although sits lower than the highs seen since our report on Friday (~.4570, 2.1882). The slide observed since these highs was aided overnight by the better than expected U.K. manufacturing PMI data ,although this move has been tempered in recent hours by the sharp lift in the NZD/USD exchange rate. Moves in the next 36 hours should be dictated by NZ events (dairy pricing, employment, and the RBNZ Governor speech); Friday’s BOE meeting should pass without too much concern given present expectations.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
NZD/GBP 0.4535 0.4450 0.4580 0.4488 - 0.4581
GBP/NZD 2.2051 2.1834 2.2472 2.1830 - 2.2282

Friday 29th January 1:30pm(NZT)
The New Zealand dollar has eased against the U.K. pound this week mainly on the back of sentiment post the RBNZ meeting yesterday which saw the central bank noting that further policy easing may be required this year in order to keep inflation tracking towards targets. Next week features U.K. manufacturing and construction data and the BOE central bank meeting, whilst locally we will await the Q4 employment data on Wednesday and the earlier release in the GDT dairy price series. We favour selling rallies towards .4540 (2.2026) for a move towards key support at .4450 (2.2472).
The current interbank midrate is:    NZDGBP 0.4510    GBPNZD 2.2173

The interbank range this week has been:    NZDGBP 0.4488 - 0.4605    GBPNZD 2.1715 - 2.2283
Tuesday 26th January 4:00pm(NZT)
The New Zealand dollar has given back much of its gains (~50% from recent high/lows) seen against the U.K. pound towards the latter part of last week. This comes about mainly on the back of the easing seen in the NZD/USD exchange rate (and other commodity currencies) since the highs. Thursday will be a key day this week for the cross with both the RBNZ interest rate decision and U.K. GDP data slated for release. We have no bias at current levels and see this cross staying well contained within last week’s range until Thursday.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
NZD/GBP 0.4525 0.4450 0.4650 0.4483 - 0.4609
GBP/NZD 2.2099 2.1505 2.2472 2.1697 - 2.2308

Friday 22nd January 2:30pm(NZT)
The New Zealand dollar has recovered well against the U.K. pound this week after falling sharply mid-week on the back of a weaker than expected NZ Q4 inflation print. Support around the .4450 (2.2472 resistance) held the NZD decline and the cross now sits well above this level, but short of the key .4650 (2.1505 support) resistance level. Next week’s U.K. GDP release and the RBNZ central bank meeting will be the key events to impact this cross in the near term. We expect more messy trade between the aforementioned levels, but favour selling NZD dollars overall towards the overhead resistance.
The current interbank midrate is:    NZDGBP 0.4597    GBPNZD 2.1753

The interbank range this week has been:    NZDGBP 0.4451 - 0.4609    GBPNZD 2.1697 - 2.2466
Tuesday 19th January 2:00pm(NZT)
Both the New Zealand dollar and the UK Pound have been under pressure so far this year and as a result the cross rate between the two currencies has been choppy. This has been particularly true over the past couple of weeks with a number of swings between 0.4450 and 0.4560 (2.1930 - 2.2470). It’s hard to have a firm view on direction from here. The NZ dollar was certainly overvalued late last year when it was trading well above 0.4600 (below 2.1740), but it seems unlikely we are heading back below 0.4200 (above 2.3800) any time soon. With no threat of a Bank of England interest rate hike on the immediate horizon and the uncertainty of Britain's EU referendum, the GBP is likely to remain much softer than we saw it through middle of last year. Key support comes in around 0.4450 (resistance 2.2470) and while above that level the pair will likely range between there and 0.4600 (2.1740).
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
NZD/GBP 0.4525 0.4450 0.4650 0.4451 - 0.4560
GBP/NZD 2.2099 2.1505 2.2472 2.1928 - 2.2466

Friday 15th January 2:00pm(NZT)
The New Zealand dollar trades with a mildly weak tone currently against the U.K. pound after falling heavily last week from its recent highs seen at the end of 2015 (.4650, 2.1505). NZD gains this week were limited to .4560 (low 2.1930) after the worse than expected U.K. manufacturing and industrial production data. We mildly favour selling NZD rallies for now with the first support still being seen around the .4450 (resistance 2.2472) level. Key resistance is now forming in the .4560/70 (support 2.1930/2.1882) zone. Data to watch next week includes the local inflation and GDT dairy releases, whilst in the U.K. inflation and employment data always have the potential for a high impact.
The current interbank midrate is:    NZDGBP 0.4500    GBPNZD 2.2222

The interbank range this week has been:    NZDGBP 0.4459 - 0.4567    GBPNZD 2.1895 - 2.2429
Tuesday 12th January 2:00pm(NZT)
The New Zealand dollar closed 2015 on highs not seen in over six months against the U.K. pound (.4650, 2.1505). In part on the back of a solid end of year rally in the NZD/USD exchange rate. However, the story so far for 2016 has been quite different as the NZD/USD reversed all of those end of year gains and fell through support around the .6600 level on the back of the sharp increase seen in risk aversion as Chinese economic concerns mounted last week. These concerns have placed further pressure on commodity prices (ex. Gold) and commodity linked currencies. The key U.K. data was soft last week however, and we expect this sell-off to be contained by .4450 (2.2472) for now. Immediate focus for this cross is the BOE interest rate meeting on Friday morning.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
NZD/GBP 0.4510 0.4450 0.4650 0.4479 - 0.4591
GBP/NZD 2.2173 2.1505 2.2472 2.1783 - 2.2327

Tuesday 22nd December 2:00pm(NZT)
The New Zealand dollar continues to trade with a firm tone against the U.K. pound this week. It drifted higher last week mainly on the back of a weak GBP/USD exchange rate, which presently languishes near lows not seen since April. U.K. GDP and current account data tomorrow has the potential to incite some movement in the cross, although thin holiday market liquidity especially in the NZD is likely to be the more critical driver. The NZD appears high on a number of cross rates and this may limit its ability to easily  drive higher from its current levels.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
NZD/GBP .4555 .4450 .4600 .4461- - .4554
GBP/NZD 2.1960 2.1740 2.2470 2.1957 - 2.2418

Friday 18th December 2:30pm(NZT)
The New Zealand dollar is up on the week against the U.K. pound, although sits off its highs (~.4535, 2.2051) currently. This comes despite of series of largely positive data out of the U.K. during the week, although the latest NZ Q3 GDP data yesterday was also better than expectations. First minor support should be seen near .4450 (2.2472) and then .4360 (2.2936), resistance beyond the weekly highs should form near .4600 (2.1739). NZD liquidity constraints and commodity currency price volatility should be the primary movers of this cross over coming days..
The current interbank midrate is:    NZDGBP 0.4492    GBPNZD 2.2261

The interbank range this week has been:    NZDGBP 0.4402 - 0.4536    GBPNZD 2.2047 - 2.2718
Tuesday 15th December 2:00pm(NZT)
The New Zealand dollar continues to trade with a firm tone against the U.K. pound in recent trade. Last week’s gains were added to overnight and came about on the back of dovish comments from a BOE member and the rally seen in the commodity currencies (esp. the NZD and AUD). The next 48 hrs will be interesting for this cross as the releases of inflation and employment data in the U.K. combine with current account, GDP, and the latest GDT dairy price auction data in NZ. First support is seen at .4360 (resistance 2.2936), resistance continues to lie around the .4480/90 area (2.2321/2.2272 support).
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
NZD/GBP .4468 .4360 .4490 .4367 - .4486
GBP/NZD 2.2381 2.2272 2.2940 2.2290 - 2.2897

Friday 11th December 2:30pm(NZT)
The New Zealand dollar reversed its early week losses seen against the U.K. pound yesterday after the RBNZ meeting. The apparent signalling by the RBNZ that another cut was unlikely post the 0.25% reduction in rates seen yesterday drove the gains. Highs so far have again topped ahead of the .4480 (lows 2.2321) level, whilst mid week losses reversed ahead of support at .4360 (resistance 2.2936). A clear break of this week’s extreme levels should bode well for decent additional  NZD gains in this cross. Events to watch next week include U.K. inflation and employment releases, and in NZ the latest GDT dairy price auction and Q3 GDP.
The current interbank midrate is:    NZDGBP 0.4455    GBPNZD 2.2447

The interbank range this week has been:    NZDGBP 0.4367 - 0.4480    GBPNZD 2.2320 - 2.2897
Tuesday 8th December 2:30pm(NZT)
The New Zealand dollar has eased from its highs seen against the U.K. pound on Friday after the U.S. employment report. A lack of liquidity in the NZD/USD exchange rate helped this cross trade to highs near .4480 (lows 2.2321), levels last seen in mid June. Whilst a touch surprising such moves can come from left-field as liquidity dries up nearer holiday periods. Fresh direction for this cross will come from the respective monetary policy meetings from both countries later this week. Minor support is noted near .4380 (resistance 2.2831) and then .4360 (2.2936). Key support is placed around .4330 (key resistance 2.3095).
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
NZD/GBP 0.4415 0.4330 0.4480 0.4379 - 0.4480
GBP/NZD 2.2650 2.2321 2.3095 2.2320 - 2.2834

Friday 4th December 2:00pm(NZT)
The New Zealand dollar is trading higher against the U.K. pound this week, although sits well off its highs set above .4460 (2.2422) after the strong rally in the GBP seen overnight. This occurred on the back of a surging EUR after the underwhelming ECB stimulus package expansion announcement and the release of better than expected U.K. services PMI data. First minor support is now placed around the .4380 (resistance 2.2831) level whilst first resistance now lies around the weekly highs (.4460 (support 2.2422). Monetary policy meetings in both countries next week (NZ, Thursday/U.K. Friday morning) will set the tone going forward, although prior to that we would be surprised if this cross could make any impression beyond this week’s NZ dollar highs.
The current interbank midrate is:    NZDGBP 0.4415    GBPNZD 2.2650

The interbank range this week has been:    NZDGBP 0.4334 - 0.4465    GBPNZD 2.2397 - 2.3072
Tuesday 1st December 4:00pm(NZT)
The New Zealand dollar has continued to trade with a firm tone against the U.K. pound this week. This comes as the GBP continues to be weighted by the Euro, and the NZD supported by a firm AUD. The data calendar is relatively light out of both countries this week, although tonight’s GDT dairy price data and U.K. manufacturing PMI data will influence. Initial support for this cross is now placed around .4330 (resistance 2.3095). Nearby initial resistance at .4380 (support 2.2831) if breached opens, the potential for a move to .4410 (2.2676) and the .4440/50 (2.2523/2.2472) zone being key beyond. The ECB meeting on Thursday should be noted if the market decides that a larger than expected easing programme is risk-asset supportive (NZD+).
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
NZD/GBP 0.4380 0.4330 0.4410 0.4306 - 0.4389
GBP/NZD 2.2831 2.2676 2.3095 2.2784 - 2.3224

Friday 27th November 2:30pm(NZT)
The New Zealand dollar has performed well against the U.K. pound this week and trades near its highs currently. This comes despite very quiet data calendars from both areas. The gains have in part come about from a weakening GBP/USD exchange rate which has experienced some malaise by association with the Euro. The NZD/USD in contrast has benefitted from a firm AUD/USD exchange rate and some demand for the NZD via the AUD/NZD cross post yesterday’s weaker than expected Australian Q3 CAPEX data release. Initial support is now seen around .4300 (resistance 2.3256), whilst first resistance is now noted at .4380 (support 2.2831), better resistance is pegged around the .4450 level (support 2.2478). Events to watch include next week’s GDT dairy price release on Wednesday morning and U.K. GDP tonight.
The current interbank midrate is:    NZDGBP 0.4355    GBPNZD 2.2962

The interbank range this week has been:    NZDGBP 0.4288 - 0.4368    GBPNZD 2.2894 - 2.3322
Tuesday 24th November 3:00pm(NZT)
The New Zealand dollar has recovered well from its lows seen against the U.K. pound last week after the latest weak dairy price auction. This was largely attributable to a weaker USD (which saw the AUD+NZD rally significantly into the end of the week) and a strong lift observed in the NZX dairy futures. Highs have so far been capped around the .4330 (lows 2.3095) level. We favour the .4330/50 (2.3040) zone capping in the short term during what should be a relatively quiet week for this cross. BOE Governor Carney’s speech later in the week is the main event of interest this week.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
NZD/GBP 0.4305 0.4200 0.4335 0.4229 - 0.4330
GBP/NZD 2.3229 2.3068 2.3810 2.3095 - 2.3648

Thursday 19th November 1:00pm(NZT)
The New Zealand dollar has consistently underperformed the UK Pound this week, weighed on by another significant fall in dairy prices. The GBP itself found some support from a slightly firmer core inflation reading and a further gain in house prices, and these factors have helped push the cross to is low so far of 0.4229 (high 2.3645). We are still a long way from September's NZD cycle lows around 0.4060 (highs 2.4530) and for the time being at least they seem a little out of reach for the pair. Support around 0.4165 (resistance 2.4000) however, is within reach and those looking to buy New Zealand dollars in the near term should take advantage of any move toward that level. Topside resistance comes in around 0.4315 (support 2.3175) and I would expect that to cap any potential period of  NZ dollar strength over the coming week.
The current interbank midrate is:    NZDGBP 0.4245    GBPNZD 2.3557

The interbank range this week has been:    NZDGBP 0.4229 - 0.4321    GBPNZD 2.3145 - 2.3648
Tuesday 17th November 3:00pm(NZT)
The New Zealand dollar continues to ease against the U.K. pound this week as the NZD eases on the back of heightened uncertainty after the weekend’s terror attacks in France. Tonight’s U.K. inflation data and NZ GDT dairy auction will be important drivers of the next move in this cross. This NZD looks heavy for now and U.K. inflation expectations are modest for tonight’s release. This may allow the GBP to rally further should inflation expectations surprise to the upside.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
NZD/GBP 0.4263 0.4200 0.4315 0.4259 - 0.4343
GBP/NZD 2.3458 2.3810 2.3175 2.3027 - 2.3481

Friday 13th November 2:00pm(NZT)
The New Zealand dollar has drifted lower against the U.K. pound this week and trades near its lows presently (.4283, highs 2.3348). This has occurred after the GBP has appreciated over the course of the week especially after a solid U.K. employment release on Wednesday evening. This cross continues to look vulnerable to further declines, especially if .4270 (2.3419) breaks. Sellers may look towards rallies near .4330 (2.3095) for entries. Data flow next week includes NZ retail sales and the latest GDT dairy auction, Tuesday evenings U.K. inflation data and inflation report will also be important.
The current interbank midrate is:    NZDGBP 0.4297    GBPNZD 2.3272

The interbank range this week has been:    NZDGBP 0.4282 - 0.4379    GBPNZD 2.2836 - 2.3352
Tuesday 10th November 1:30pm(NZT)
The New Zealand dollar has consolidated within a range against the U.K. pound over the last week. This comes after initially falling heavily post the latest weak GDT dairy auction and NZ Q3 employment data disappointment. It recovered well from lows near .4275 (highs 2.3392) after the dovish comments seen at the BOE monetary policy meeting later in the week. We favour more range trading this week, especially until Wednesday night’s U.K. employment report.  NZD sellers continue to be attracted to levels ahead of .4400 (2.2727).
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
NZD/GBP 0.4325 0.4275 0.4400 0.4276 - 0.4396
GBP/NZD 2.3121 2.2727 2.3393 2.2750 - 2.3385

Friday 6th November 1:00pm(NZT)
The New Zealand dollar was capped ahead of .4400 (2.2727) against the U.K. pound at the start of the week before it fell sharply after the release of the latest GDT dairy auction (-7.4%) and disappointing NZ Q3 employment data which registered the loss of 11k jobs during the quarter. A dovish BOE monetary policy meeting overnight has seen it improve materially from its lows around .4275 (2.3392) however. There is little of note in the week ahead for this cross apart from U.K. employment data on Wednesday night (NZ time). We have little bias as the outlook for the GBP and NZD appear equally soft for the time being. NZD sellers could look to levels ahead of .4400 (2.2727), whilst patient buyers could target levels near this week’s lows.
The current interbank midrate is:    NZDGBP 0.4345    GBPNZD 2.3015

The interbank range this week has been:    NZDGBP 0.4276 - 0.4414    GBPNZD 2.2656 - 2.3385
Tuesday 3rd November 5:30pm(NZT)
The New Zealand dollar has consolidated against the U.K. pound within recent ranges since our last report, although trades lower than a week ago after last week’s currency strength warning from the RBNZ. The cross has failed to break the recent lateral price movement seen between .4340-.4460 (2.2420 - 2.3040) over the last 3 weeks. Support around .4335/40 (resistance 2.3070) appears the vulnerable side to this week’s key drivers which are the NZ unemployment report and dairy price data tomorrow and the BoE monetary policy statement on Friday.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
NZD/GBP 0.4380 0.4340 0.4415 0.4348 - 0.4444
GBP/NZD 2.2831 2.2650 2.3041 2.2501 - 2.2999

Friday 30th October 2:30pm(NZT)
The support found by the New Zealand dollar against the UK Pound has eased this week after the delivery of currency bearish notes from the RBNZ this week. Sentiment from Thursday’s meeting has outweighed the effects of a worse than expected U.K. Q3 GDP report. Initial support for this cross comes in around .4340 (resistance 2.3041), and then .4315 (2.3175). We favour a move from the NZ dollar lower over coming week with initial supply now forming near .4400 (support 2.2727). Next week’s NZ unemployment/dairy price data on Wednesday and BoE monetary policy meeting (early Friday) will be key drivers.
The current interbank midrate is:    NZDGBP 0.4382    GBPNZD 2.2821

The interbank range this week has been:    NZDGBP 0.4348 - 0.4455    GBPNZD 2.2448 - 2.2999
Tuesday 27th October 4:00pm(NZT)
The New Zealand dollar remains wells supported against the UK Pound, although down from the 0.4456 high (low 2.2440) seen on Friday evening. That NZD high traded in the immediate aftermath of the Chinese rate cut announcement, which initially saw the NZD marked higher. The gains didn’t last long however, as the move raised concerns about global growth and put pressure commodity prices. Attention now turns to the release of UK GDP data tonight, and then the RBNZ rate statement on Thursday morning. There is good support on the downside around 0.4340 (resistance 2.3040), while any further topside price action will again run into resistance ahead of 0.4460 (support 2.2420).
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
NZD/GBP 0.4415 0.4340 0.4460 0.4342 - 0.4455
GBP/NZD 2.2650 2.2422 2.3041 2.2448 - 2.3028

Friday 23rd October 1:30pm(NZT)
The New Zealand dollar has rebounded well from its lows (.4343, high 2.3025) seen against the pound earlier in the week after the latest soft GDT dairy auction. The Cable has suffered by association in overnight trade after the dovish ECB commentary despite the earlier release of firm U.K. Retail Sales data. Resistance near .4460 (support 2.2422) should continue to cap the NZD for the time being. The risks to the NZD appear to be to the downside,  although next week’s RBNZ rate meeting on Thursday will be pivotal.
The current interbank midrate is:    NZDGBP 0.4420    GBPNZD 2.2624

The interbank range this week has been:    NZDGBP 0.4342 - 0.4425    GBPNZD 2.2600 - 2.3028
Tuesday 20th October 1:25pm(NZT)
The New Zealand dollar has eased from its highs seen last week against the pound around the .4450 (lows around 2.2470) region although remains well sought after for the time being. The cross looks to have peaked for now after the release of firm U.K employment data last week (unemployment new 7-year lows) as the market re-prices the prospects of Bank of England hikes. First minor support should come in around .4370 (resistance 2.2883) although this could easily be broken should tonight’s GDT dairy auction flop. U.K. retail sales on Thursday may also have some impact.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
NZD/GBP 0.4392 0.4370 0.4460 0.4340 - 0.4452
GBP/NZD 2.2769 2.2422 2.2883 2.2462 - 2.3043

Friday 16th October 3:00pm(NZT)
The New Zealand dollar continues to rise against the Pound on the back of improving risk sentiment and the yield advantage offered by the NZD as expectations for the timing of Fed rate hikes are delayed. Initial resistance lies around .4450 (support 2.2472) and then .4500 (2.2222). With a light data calendar next week, we expect these influences to continue to drive direction over the week ahead although the latest GDT dairy auction will also naturally be a key driver.
The current interbank midrate is:    NZDGBP 0.4414             GBPNZD 2.2655

The interbank range this week has been:    NZDGBP .4339 - .4452  GBPNZD 2.2462 - 2.3048
Tuesday 13th October 2:00pm(NZT)
The New Zealand dollar continues to trade well against the Pound on the back of improving risk sentiment and stronger dairy prices. Slippage in the timing of BoE rate hikes in 2016 has also contributed to the tone. Resistance near .4400 (2.2727 support) is expected to cap further NZD appreciation time being. On the downside, first support lies around .4357 (2.2950 resistance) and then .4275/80 (~2.3365). This week’s data releases to watch include U.K. Inflation/PPI data today and U.K. August ILO unemployment data tomorrow, NZ Inflation data this Friday will also impact.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
NZD/GBP 0.4375 0.4280 0.4400 0.4268 - 0.4392
GBP/NZD 2.2857 2.2727 2.3365 2.2770 - 2.3431

Friday 9th October 3:00pm(NZT)
The New Zealand dollar continues to outperform the UK Pound reaching highs above .4350 this week. Gains on the back of improving risk sentiment and stronger dairy prices have bolstered the move as the kiwi rallied ~ 4% to its highs on the week. Further gains towards resistance near .4400 (2.2727) now appear probable. On the downside support lies near .4275/80 (~2.3365). Next week’s data releases to watch include CPI/PPI and employment data from the UK.and to lesser extent NZ CPI data.
The current interbank midrate is:    NZDGBP 0.4345    GBPNZD 2.3015

The interbank range this week has been:    NZDGBP 0.4210 - 0.4355    GBPNZD 2.2962 - 2.3750
Tuesday 6th October 2:00pm(NZT)
The New Zealand dollar has been a strong performer this past week and against the UK Pound this resulted in a test of 0.4300 (2.3256) last night. Softer than expected UK service sector PMI has weighed on the GBP to a degree while the NZD has been supported by expectation of another positive dairy auction tonight. The 0.4220 (2.3697) area should now provide support on the downside and the pair may well try to extend gains toward 0.4400 (2.2727) over the coming week. I would expect the 0.4400 (2.2727) area to provide a significant barrier on the topside and those looking to purchase GBP should target levels just ahead of there. After tonight’s dairy action there is little else to get excited about on the NZ economic calendar, while from the UK we have a number of releases to draw focus including manufacturing and industrial production data, along with the Bank of England interest rate meeting.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
NZD/GBP 0.4285 0.4220 0.4400 0.4148 - 0.4301
GBP/NZD 2.3337 2.2727 2.3697 2.3253 - 2.4107

Friday 2nd October 2:00pm(NZT)
The New Zealand dollar has managed to outperform the UK Pound this week and the pair looks set to grind its way higher. A sustained break above 0.4200 (below 2.3810) has opened the way for a move toward 0.4300 (2.3250) and the pair got as far as 0.4258 (2.3485) last night. An improvement in NZ business confidence has lent some support to the NZD, but the weeks move has had more to do with GBP weakness. It’s hard to point a finger at exactly what has driven the Pounds underperformance recently. Certainly data this week, while a little mixed, wasn’t all bad. Sometimes it’s best to just accept what the price action is telling you, and at the moment that suggests further gains for the NZD. Next week from NZ we have the NZIER’s quarterly survey of business opinion along with another dairy auction to digest. While from the UK we have manufacturing and industrial production data, the NIESR’s GDP estimate, and the Bank of England interest rate meeting.
The current interbank midrate is:    NZDGBP 0.4230    GBPNZD 2.3641

The interbank range this week has been:    NZDGBP 0.4146 - 0.4258    GBPNZD 2.3485 - 2.4122
Tuesday 29th Sept 3:00pm(NZT)
The New Zealand dollar has outperformed the UK Pound over the past week, driven largely by the upgraded pay-out forecasts from Fonterra. The NZD traded as high as 0.4215 (2.3725) GBP yesterday, but it seems that was a step too far and the price has moderated back to a more comfortable 0.4160 (2.4038) overnight. If minor support around 0.4160 (resistance 2.4038) contains the immediate NZD downside, the pair may well look to test above 0.4200 (below 2.3810) again. I would be wary of any sustained break above this level as it could open the way for a move toward 0.4300 (2.3255). If on the other hand 0.4160 (2.4038) gives way the cross will likely head back toward 0.4080 (2.4510). Local data this week in the form of building consents and business confidence numbers will draw some attention. While from the UK we have current account, consumer confidence, GDP, manufacturing PMI and construction PMI data along with a speech from BOE Governor Carney to digest.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
NZD/GBP 0.4155 0.4020 0.4220 0.4064 - 0.4215
GBP/NZD 2.4067 2.3697 2.4876 2.3727 - 2.4606

Friday 25th September 2:00pm(NZT)
The New Zealand dollar spent much of this week in a tight range just above recent cycle lows to the UK Pound. In fact the pair has been swinging back and forth around the 0.4100 (2.4390) level for much of September. The past couple of days however, has seen a material improvement in NZ dollar demand and this has driven the pair notably higher. The gains are largely as a result of Fonterra’s upgraded pay-out forecasts released yesterday morning. The cross has managed to overcome minor resistance around 0.4160 (support 2.4040) and this opens the way for a test 0.4200 (2.3810). A sustained break above 0.4200 (2.3810) would bring the more important resistance level of 0.4270 (2.3420) into focus. Next week from NZ we have building consents and business confidence data to digest. While from the UK we have data on net lending to individuals, the current account, the final reading of GDP, manufacturing and construction PMI’s.
The current interbank midrate is:    NZDGBP 0.4160    GBPNZD 2.4038

The interbank range this week has been:    NZDGBP 0.4064 - 0.4180    GBPNZD 2.3921 - 2.4606
Tuesday 22nd Sept 2:30pm(NZT)
Although the longer term charts continue to suggest the NZD downtrend against the GBP remains intact, the shorter term charts show less conviction. The New Zealand dollar has failed to break to fresh lows against the UK Pound over the past two weeks with support around 0.4060 (resistance 2.4630) containing any periods of NZD weakness. A break lower may eventually come, but in the meantime it would pay to keep an eye on topside resistance around 0.4125 (support 2.4240). A move through that level may well see the pair extend toward 0.4200 (2.38710). From the UK this week we have public sector net borrowing data to digest along with speeches from a number of BOE officials. While from NZ we just have the trade balance on Thursday of any note.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
NZD/GBP 0.4077 0.4020 0.4220 0.4064 - 0.4157
GBP/NZD 2.4528 2.3697 2.4876 2.4057 - 2.4606

Friday 18th September 2:50pm(NZT)
The New Zealand dollar has remained broadly under pressure from the UK Pound this week. A period of NZD strength in the wake of another strong dairy auction was quickly undone by disappointing NZ GDP data. The UK pound on the other hand has been supported by strong wage gains that keep the prospect of a Bank of England rate hike in Q1 2016 alive. Despite this the pair has failed to break to fresh NZD lows this week and that may well be a sign that downside momentum is waning, at least for now. We have seen some volatile price action in the past 12 hours, triggered by the US Fed announcement, which also suggests the NZD topside might be the path of least resistance in the near term. Look for support around 0.4060 (resistance 2.4630) to contain any immediate NZ dollar downside pressure and another test over 0.4100 (under 2.4390) to develop. Next week from New Zealand we have consumer sentiment, visitor arrivals and the trade balance to digest. While from the UK we get we only have public sector net borrowing of any note.
The current interbank midrate is:    NZDGBP 0.4082    GBPNZD 2.4498

The interbank range this week has been:    NZDGBP 0.4065 - 0.4157    GBPNZD 2.4057 - 2.4600
Tuesday 15th Sept 1:30pm(NZT)
The New Zealand dollar has remained broadly under pressure in the wake of last Thursday’s RBNZ monetary policy statement. Against the UK Pound the local currency has managed a small recovery off the lows of 0.4060 (high 2.4630) seen late last week, but the NZD bounce has been less than encouraging. I can’t get excited about potential NZD upside until we see a move above 0.4170 (below 2.3980). Only then will the immediate downside pressure have abated. Until then the risks remain skewed to further NZD weakness. Tonight we have another Fonterra dairy auction then on Thursday we get NZ GDP data. From the UK this week we have inflation, wage and retail sales data to digest.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
NZD/GBP 0.4105 0.4020 0.4220 0.4060 - 0.4177
GBP/NZD 2.4361 2.3697 2.4876 2.3940 - 2.4631

Friday 11th September 2:30pm(NZT)
The New Zealand dollar has had a wild ride this week and against the UK Pound it has largely confirmed the broader downtrend remains intact. A squeeze higher in the 48 hour prior to yesterday’s RBNZ monetary policy statement took the pair to just shy of 0.4200 (2.3810). But once Governor Wheeler delivered his statement that was more ‘dovish’ than expected, support for the NZD disappeared. Against the GBP this saw the local currency break below recent lows and trade to 0.4060 (high 2.4631). There has been little in the way of a meaningful bounce from those lows and as such the NZD downside remains the risk. Last night’s Bank of England rate meeting didn’t provide the same sort of fireworks as the RBNZ announcement, but with the BOE still largely confidence about their economic prospects going forward, it has provided broad support for the Pound. 0.4000 to 0.4200 (2.5000 to 2.3810) looks like a viable range for the coming week with the preferred strategy selling into NZD strength for an eventual test of 0.4000 (2.5000).
The current interbank midrate is:    NZDGBP 0.4088    GBPNZD 2.4462

The interbank range this week has been:    NZDGBP 0.4060 - 0.4194    GBPNZD 2.3846 - 2.4631
Tuesday 8st Sept 4:30pm(NZT)
Gains for this pair through the middle of last week petered out ahead of resistance around 0.4220 (support 2.3700) and in recent days the NZD has seen renewed losses. Broad based New Zealand dollar weakness ahead of Thursday’s Reserve Bank monetary policy statement has played a part, as has some recent strength in the UK. The pair traded sub 0.4100 (above 2.4390) last night and is currently only just through that level. The longer term trend is firmly to the NZD downside and there has been nothing recently to say this is drawing to a close. If minor support around 0.4085 (resistance 2.4480) gives way a test below 0.4000 (above 2.5000) may well be on the cards. The Bank of England also meet this week and the market will be keen to see a confirmation that an interest rate hike is looking much less likely in the first half of next year.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
NZD/GBP 0.4100 0.4020 0.4220 0.4086 - 0.4203
GBP/NZD 2.4390 2.3697 2.4876 2.3794 - 2.4471

Friday 4th September 1:00pm(NZT)
This week started off poorly for the New Zealand dollar with another big fall in business confidence putting the local currency under pressure. Against the UK Pound this resulted in a brief period of trade below 0.4120 (above 2.4270), but since then we have seen something of a NZD recovery develop. Further gains in dairy prices at Fonterra’s latest auction certainly helped to turn the pair around, as has some soft data from the UK. The GBP itself has seen some pressure recently on the back of what looks like a slight loss of momentum in the UK economy. Whether or not the NZD can kick on from here remains to be seen, but with focus now turning to an expected interest rate cut from the RBNZ next week, I suspect the NZ dollar topside will be somewhat limited. Resistance around 0.4230 (support 2.3640) should contain the pair heading into Thursday’s RBNZ meeting. We also have the Bank of England interest rate meeting next week to digest, although there is no expectation of an adjustment to policy.
The current interbank midrate is:    NZDGBP 0.4190    GBPNZD 2.3866

The interbank range this week has been:    NZDGBP 0.4116 - 0.4219    GBPNZD 2.3703 - 2.4296
Tuesday 1st Sept 4:30pm(NZT)
In the wake of last Monday night’s wild volatility the New Zealand dollar staged a slow recovery against the UK Pound trading toward 0.4220 late in the week. That recovery rolled over yesterday, however, after very disappointing NZ business confidence data put the local currency back under pressure. The downside remains vulnerable, although we do have another dairy action tonight and indications are we could see some further strength in dairy prices. This will certainly help the NZD in the short term, but wider market concerns around China will keep topside gains limited. From the UK this week we have PMI’s from the manufacturing, construction and service sectors to digest.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
NZD/GBP 0.4140 0.4020 0.4220 0.4087 - 0.4219
GBP/NZD 2.4155 2.3697 2.4876 2.3703 - 2.4468

Friday 28th August 3:00pm(NZT)
It has been an interesting week for this pair with volatility in the wider market on Monday night causing the cross to break down through support, and cycle lows, around 0.4150 (former highs at 2.4100) . The move was anything but orderly, however most of the spike low was a result of liquidity literally drying up for a few crazy minutes. The market quickly regained its composure and since then we have seen a consistent grind from the NZ dollar higher. Virtually all of the pairs losses have been reversed and importantly, the cross is now back above 0.4150 (below 2.4100). This relatively quick recovery back through that key level suggests the near term outlook may now not be so negative for the NZ dollar. We could easily see a test of initial topside resistance around 0.4280 (support 2.3350) in the coming days. From the UK next week we have the trifecta of PMI’s from the manufacturing, construction and services sectors to digest along with data on net lending to individuals. While from NZ we have business confidence, building consents and other dairy auction to draw focus.
The current interbank midrate is:    NZDGBP 0.4217    GBPNZD 2.3714

The interbank range this week has been:    NZDGBP 0.4020 - 0.4275    GBPNZD 2.3392 - 2.4876
Tuesday 25th Aug 7:30pm(NZT)
The New Zealand dollar made some small gains against the UK Pound toward the end of last week. Those gains have however been completely wiped out in the past 48 hours as risk aversion in the wider market saw the NZD come under heavy selling pressure. Weakness in global stock markets (in particular China) was the trigger for a volatile night for currencies last night. In extremely thin market conditions the NZDGBP smashed down through recent lows around 0.4160 (2.4040). The market quickly composed itself but the pair has remained through that level and this keeps the risks skewed to the NZD downside for the time being. Only a sustained move back above 0.4160 (below 2.4040) will take the immediate pressure off the NZ dollar downside. Look for market to remain very nervous over the coming days with this period of heightened volatility far from over.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
NZD/GBP 0.4120 0.3960 0.4160 0.4020 - 0.4275
GBP/NZD 2.4272 2.4038 2.5253 2.3392 - 2.4876

Thursday 20th Aug 1:30pm (NZT)
Both the New Zealand dollar and the UK Pound have seen supportive economic releases this week and this has kept the pair range bound above the key support level of 0.4160 (below resistance at 2.4040). Locally we have seen positive news on the dairy front with exports to Russia now back on the cards and a big jump in prices at Fonterra’s latest auction. The GBP on the other hand received a healthy boost from stronger than forecast inflation data, even though the overall level inflation is still very subdued. With both currencies seeing periods of strength the cross rate has traded sideways around the 0.4200 (2.3810) level. For the time being I favour buying NZD dips for an eventual correction higher toward 0.4300 (down to 2.3250). Any sustained break below 0.4160 (above 2.4040) would nullify this view however, and suggest a now NZ dollar down leg is under way. Next week from NZ we have inflation expectations and the trade balance to digest. While from the UK we have the latest reading of retail sales tonight followed by GDP data next week.
The current interbank midrate is:    NZDGBP 0.4210    GBPNZD 2.3753

The interbank range this week has been:    NZDGBP 0.4172 - 0.4248    GBPNZD 2.3538 - 2.3970
Tuesday 18th Aug 1:30pm(NZT)
Like many New Zealand dollar pairs, this cross has seen a continuation of recent range trading, albeit with some notable volatility thrown in the mix. Support toward 0.4150 (resistance toward 2.4096) was tested in the immediate aftermath of the Chinese Yuan devaluations, but that level managed to contain the downside. In the past 24 hours we have seen a recovery back above 0.4200 (below 2.3810), no doubt helped by expectations that tonight’s dairy auction won’t produce another big decline. From the UK tonight we have inflation data to digest, with another flat reading forecast, then later in the week UK retail sales will draw focus. Expect a range of 0.4150 to 0.4300 (2.4096 to 2.3256) to dominate trade this week.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
NZD/GBP 0.4220 0.4150 0.4320 0.4164 - 0.4251
GBP/NZD 2.3697 2.3148 2.4096 2.3523 - 2.4010

Friday 14th August 1:00pm(NZT)
It has been a choppy week of range trading for this pairing. Volatility was seen in the wake of the Chinese Yuan devaluation announcements and this initially saw the pair test toward recent lows around 0.4160 (highs 2.4040). The New Zealand dollar put in a solid bounce from that low however, helped by Wednesday’s softer than forecast UK employment and wage data. With indicators suggesting a lack of downside momentum at the moment we can expect further ranging between the broad parameters of 0.4150 and 0.4300 (2.3250 - 2.4100). Those looking to purchase New Zealand dollars should take advantage of any dips below 0.4200 (over 2.3810) over the coming week. Next week from NZ we have another dairy auction, producer prices and inflation expectations data. While from the UK we have inflation data and retail sales numbers to digest.
The current interbank midrate is:    NZDGBP 0.4198    GBPNZD 2.3821

The interbank range this week has been:    NZDGBP 0.4164 - 0.4282    GBPNZD 2.3355 - 2.4010
Tuesday 11th Aug 2:30pm(NZT)
After testing recent lows, and key NZD support, around 0.4150 (resistance 2.4100) late last week, this pair put in a significant reversal. A lack of follow through selling the NZD played a part with the local currency making moderate gains on most cross since Thursday. But broad based UK Pound weakness has also been a driver. A more ‘dovish’ tone from the Bank of England, and its Governor Mark Carney, has pressured the GBP with expectations for an interest rate hike getting pushed deeper into the first half of 2016 as a result. There is little from NZ over the coming days with just retail sales data set for release on Friday. As such the market may struggle to find fresh reasons to sell the local currency and this may well see the pair continue to drift higher. Minor support around 0.4200 (resistance 2.3800) may well contain the NZD downside as the pair looks toward 0.4300 (2.3250) or potentially further. Wednesday’s release of UK employment data will be a focus.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
NZD/GBP 0.4247 0.4150 0.4320 0.4164 - 0.4282
GBP/NZD 2.3546 2.3148 2.4096 2.3355 - 2.4017

Friday 7th August 11: 35am(NZT)
The NZD was pressured to new cycle lows against the GBP through the belly of this week. It was hard to escape the negative sentiment for the NZ dollar as the bad news piled up and the corporate sell flow added to the pressure. However, the NZ dollar started to grind from its lows yesterday and this was followed by the less “hawkish” than expected sentiment from the BOE’s Super Thursday. The NZD has managed to climb over 1% from the lows and we expect the .4150-.4320  (2.3150 - 2.4100) range to remain in place in the short term. Next week look for the UK unemployment claims and average earnings numbers on Wednesday to provide the focus ahead of the Q2 NZ retail sales numbers on Friday.
The current interbank midrate is:    NZDGBP 0.4220    GBPNZD 2.3697

The interbank range this week has been:    NZDGBP 0.4164 - 0.4258    GBPNZD 2.3483 - 2.4017
Tuesday 4th Aug 1:30pm(NZT)
The New Zealand dollar has remained under pressure from the UK Pound ever since making a short term peak at 0.4318 (low at 2.3159) on Wednesday last week. Price action has been choppy and minor support around 0.4200 (2.3810) has contained the downside so far. With downside momentum indicators weakening, I still believe there is potential for a correction higher toward 0.4400 (lower to 2.2727), but for the time being the NZD can’t seem to sustain any periods of strength. There is a raft of releases this week that could, and will, influence the pair. Tonight we have another dairy auction from Fonterra as well as UK construction PMI data. NZ employment data is out tomorrow, then later in the week we get UK service sector PMI and the Bank of England rate meeting.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
NZD/GBP 0.4215 0.4150 0.4320 0.4196 - 0.4318
GBP/NZD 2.3725 2.3148 2.4096 2.3161 - 2.3830

Friday 31st July 2:00pm(NZT)
Some relative New Zealand dollar strength in the first half of this week caused this pair to break through key long term NZD downtrend resistance around the 0.4280 (2.3365) mark. This encouraged some further NZD buying, but the pair only got as far as 0.4318 (2.3160) before running out of steam. In the past 24 hours the cross has traded all the way back to minor NZD support just above 0.4200 (below 2.3810). The earlier break above long term downtrend resistance is significant and it does suggest the NZD downside momentum is waning. As long as the NZD continues to hold above minor support around 0.4200 (below resistance 2.3810), there is potential for a broad NZD recovery toward 0.4400 (2.2730) to develop. Any break back through 0.4200 (2.3810) however, would bring that outlook into question and quickly turn the attention back to the NZ dollar pressure. From NZ next week we have another dairy auction to digest along with employment data. While from the UK we get PMI’s from the manufacturing, construction and service sectors along with the Bank of England interest rate meeting and inflation report.
The current interbank midrate is:    NZDGBP 0.4238    GBPNZD 2.3596

The interbank range this week has been:    NZDGBP 0.4210 - 0.4318    GBPNZD 2.3161 - 2.3756
Tuesday 28th July 3:00pm(NZT)
The New Zealand dollar has continued its corrective bounce against the UK Pound this past week. Gains have come in the wake of the RBNZ rate statement, that was less ‘dovish’ as many had expected, as well as after UK retail sales data disappointed. The NZD also found support last night as ‘risk off’ sentiment in the wider market. Thanks to a further collapse in Chinese stocks, we saw short (sold) NZD positions unwound. The pair has tested key downtrend resistance on a number of occasions recently and is currently one again threatening it. That resistance is now seen around 0.4280 (support 2.3365) and any break through there will likely encourage further NZD buying. A move back toward 0.4400 (2.2730) could then easily develop. Until a break of that resistance is seen however, the risks will remain skewed to the downside for the NZD. RBNZ Governor Wheeler speaks tomorrow and this is the main focus for the NZD on the week. While from the UK we get GDP data along with net lending to individuals, mortgage approvals and consumer confidence.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
NZD/GBP 0.4260 0.4150 0.4280 0.4200 - 0.4292
GBP/NZD 2.3474 2.3364 2.4096 2.3298 - 2.3809

Friday 24th July 1:30pm(NZT)
The New Zealand dollar has made good gains this week against the UK Pound. Toward the end of last week the NZD started to bounce from major long term support around 0.4150 (resistance 2.4100) and that move extended significantly this week all the way to key downtrend resistance now seen just below 0.4300 (support 2.3250). An important driver of the move has been the record levels of speculative short (sold) NZD positions. Everyone who wanted to be short NZD’s had already sold the currency, and with a lack of fresh selling in the wake of yesterday’s RBNZ interest rate cut, there was only one way left for the NZD to go. A classic short squeeze took the pair up to 0.4292 (down to 2.3300) last night. Disappointing UK retail sales data certainly helped the move and it’s also a large part of the reason the cross hasn’t pulled back all that far from the key resistance level just below 0.4300 (support at 2.3250). We may well have another crack at that level in the coming days and if we do, there is a greater chance of it being overcome. Any move above 0.4300 (below 2.3250) would encourage further NZD buying and gains would likely eventually extend toward 0.4400 (2.2730). If however, 0.4300 (2.3250) continues to cap the NZD appreciation, then the pair will turn back down and may drift sub 0.4200 (above 2.3810) again. Longer term NZ dollar downside momentum is waning though and as such I don’t expect a move below 0.4150 (above 2.4100) over the coming weeks. Next week from NZ we only have building consents and business confidence set for release. While from the UK we have GDP data to draw focus along with net lending to individuals.
The current interbank midrate is:    NZDGBP 0.4258    GBPNZD 2.3485

The interbank range this week has been:    NZDGBP 0.4169 - 0.4292    GBPNZD 2.3298 - 2.3984
Tuesday 21th July 5:00pm(NZT)
Over the past month or so the medium term target for this pair has been a test of support around the 0.4150 level (resistance around 2.4096). That goal was all but achieved this past week with a dip to 0.4164 (spike to 2.4015). In the past 24 hours we have seen a small recovery off that low thanks in large part to comment from NZ PM John Key. There should continue to be good buying interest ahead of 0.4150 (2.4096) if only from profit takers who sold the NZD higher at higher levels. We could potentially see a bounce a high as key resistance now around 0.4310 (support around 2.3202). I would expect that level to cap potential gains in the near term. The big focus this week is on the RBNZ’s rate statement on Thursday morning. The market is expecting a 0.25% cut to the cash rate, along with a signal further cuts are coming. From the UK this week we have the Bank of England minutes as well as retail sales data to digest.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
NZD/GBP 0.4235 0.4150 0.4310 0.4164 - 0.4330
GBP/NZD 2.3613 2.3202 2.4096 2.3096 - 2.4013

Friday 17th July 1:30pm(NZT)
It has been a very tough week for most New Zealand dollar crosses, but some of the biggest losses have come against the UK Pound. Bank of England Governor Carney’s comments about the timing of interest rate rises coming closer boosted the GBP and this has combined with NZD weakness to see a dramatic fall. Falling dairy prices and softer than forecast inflation did the damage to the local currency and the pair has traded just shy of key support around 0.4150 (resistance around 2.4096). That’s a long way down from near 0.4400 (up from 2.2727) this time last week. If support around 0.4150 can contain the weakness for now, we may get a bounce toward 0.4250 (2.3529), but with the RBNZ widely expected to cut interest rates when they meet next week, there is limited topside potential. Next week from the UK we have the BOE minutes to digest along with public sector net borrowing and retail sales data.
The current interbank midrate is:    NZDGBP 0.4180    GBPNZD 2.3923

The interbank range this week has been:    NZDGBP 0.4164 - 0.4403    GBPNZD 2.2712 - 2.4013
Tuesday 14th July 4:00pm(NZT)
Risk sentiment in the wider market has played a big part in driving the New Zealand dollar over the past week. Against the UK Pound this saw the pair squeeze up just over 0.4400 (under 2.2727) early last week as ‘risk off’ sentiment saw short (sold) NZD positions unwound. However, the market did fail to overcome minor resistance around 0.4410 (support around 2.2676) and with a Greek deal now looking likely the NZD has seen renewed pressure. Positive releases from the UK are also supporting the Pound and we could easily see a return to recent lows at 0.4260 (highs at 2.3474). We do have plenty of data to digest this week from both countries. From NZ we have another Fonterra dairy auction along with inflation for the second quarter. While from the UK we also have inflation figures as well as employment and wage data. BOE Governor Carney is also set to testify in front of parliament’s Treasury Committee during the inflation report hearings.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
NZD/GBP 0.4320 0.4300 0.4500 0.4260 - 0.4403
GBP/NZD 2.3148 2.2222 2.3256 2.2712 - 2.3475

Friday 10th July 3:30pm(NZT)
We have seen a sharp recovery in the NZ dollar in recent days. With real concerns in the market around Greece and China traders decided to take risk off the table and unwind positions. With a record level of short (sold) positions in the NZD this saw the local currency find broad based support. For the UK Pound it was the complete opposite. Long (bought) position who have been riding GBP strength the last couple of months, quickly sold in order to lock some profit in. As a result the NZDGBP snapped higher from its low of 0.4260 (sold from 2.3475) all the way up to just over 0.4400 (under 2.2730) so far. This could easily have further to go as well. The market is still short NZD’s. There is minor resistance around 0.4410 (support 2.2675) and a move over there would encourage further NZD buying. In this environment economic data has taken a back seat to risk aversion and position squaring. This weekend will prove critical for Greece, and the market will also want to see some further stabilization in Chinese stocks before re-instigating positions. Expect further volatility. Tonight from the UK we have trade balance data and then next week we get the latest readings on inflation and employment. From NZ next week we also have inflation data along with another dairy action to digest.
The current interbank midrate is:    NZDGBP 0.4390    GBPNZD 2.2779

The interbank range this week has been:    NZDGBP 0.4260 - 0.4403    GBPNZD 2.2712 - 2.3475
Tuesday 7th July 2:30pm(NZT)
The New Zealand dollar continues to underperform the UK Pound and in the past few hours a fresh cycle low at 0.4272 traded ( 2.3410). The NZD has been weighed on by declining dairy prices, declining business confidence and wider market risk aversion tied to the Greek situation. In the UK we have seen some positive readings from construction and service sector PMI’s and these have outweighed the softer than expected result from the manufacturing sector. Initial resistance comes in around 0.4310 (support 2.230) and while through that level the risks are all skewed to the NZ dollar downside. Tonight from the UK we get manufacturing production data then later in the week we have the BOE rate meeting to draw focus.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
NZD/GBP 0.4282 0.4150 0.4310 0.4272 - 0.4353
GBP/NZD 2.3354 2.3202 2.4096 2.2974 - 2.3407

Thursday 2nd July 2:30pm(NZT)
The New Zealand dollar has remained under pressure this week weighed on by declining business confidence and another poor dairy auction. Risk aversion at the start of the week also pressured the local currency and we need to be mindful that the Greek debacle is far from over. The markets will be nervous again this weekend as Greece's future in the Euro could well hang on the outcome of Sunday’s referendum. Although UK data has been mixed this week, we still have a couple of key releases in the form of construction and service sector PMI’s ahead of the weekend. Then next week from the UK we have the Bank of England rate meeting, the annual budget release, manufacturing production and the trade balance to digest. While from NZ we get we NZIER business confidence and the business NZ manufacturing index. The risks remain to the downside for the NZ dollar with a medium term target of 0.4150 (2.4100).
The current interbank midrate is:    NZDGBP 04300    GBPNZD 2.3256

The interbank range this week has been:    NZDGBP 0.4294 - 0.4410    GBPNZD 2.2675 - 2.3286
Tuesday 30th June 2:00pm(NZT)
The New Zealand dollar’s bounce from recent lows against the UK Pound that started mid last week, quickly fell victim to events in the wider market. Friday’s dramatic fall in Chinese stocks saw the NZD under some pressure heading into the weekend, then as Greek negotiations unravelled and PM Tsipras called a referendum, risk aversion pressured the local currency further early yesterday.  The NZD briefly traded to fresh cycle lows at 0.4326 (2.3116) to the Pound, before staging a small recovery overnight. There is still a lot of uncertainty around the Greek situation and this should limit potential NZD upside over the coming week. Look for minor resistance just above 0.4400 (support 2.2730) to contain any near term NZ dollar gains. We still have another dairy auction from Fonterra to digest this week, while from the UK we get PMI’s from the manufacturing, construction and service sectors.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
NZD/GBP 0.4335 0.4300 0.4500 0.4326 - 0.4410
GBP/NZD 2.3068 2.2222 2.3256 2.2675 - 2.3115

Friday 26th June 2:00pm(NZT)
The New Zealand dollar has managed a significant bounce against the UK Pound in recent days after trading to fresh cycle lows at 0.4330 (highs of 2.3095) on Tuesday night. With downside momentum indicators waning the potential for a NZD correction higher was there and the pair recovered back to 0.4410 (2.2676) yesterday afternoon. This bounce may have further to go and a move toward 0.4500 (2.2222) can’t be ruled out over the coming weeks. Next week from NZ we get building consents and business confidence data along with another dairy auction from Fonterra. While from the UK we get data on net lending to individuals, the current account, and GDP, along with manufacturing, construction and service sector PMI’s.
The current interbank midrate is:    NZDGBP 0.4380    GBPNZD 2.2831

The interbank range this week has been:    NZDGBP 0.4330 - 0.4410    GBPNZD 2.2675 - 2.3095
Tuesday 23th June 2:30pm(NZT)
The New Zealand dollar has continued to trade heavily in the wake of last week’s poor GDP data. The losses have only been very gradual in recent days, with the NZD just managing to grind out a fresh cycle low in the past 12 hours. The longer term trend for the NZ dollar is certainly down, with the UK Pound supported by better than forecast wage and retail sales data in the second half of last week. However, immediate NZD downside momentum is waning and this increases the odds of a corrective bounce over the coming week. There isn’t much in terms of data for the market to trade of this week with only the trade balance from NZ, and a speech from BOE Governor Carney on Friday or any note.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
NZD/GBP 0.4342 0.4300 0.4500 0.4336 - 0.4492
GBP/NZD 2.3031 2.2222 2.3256 2.2260 - 2.3064

Thursday 17th June 2:00pm(NZT)
The New Zealand dollar has remained under pressure from the UK Pound this week, with significant further losses seen in the past 24 hours. This recent move have been driven on two fronts. Firstly the UK Pound was supported by last night much stronger than forecast wage data. This result supports the outlook for an interest rate hike from the Bank of England late this year or early next. Secondly we have seen NZD losses in the wake of this morning poor GDP data. Another rate cut from the RBNZ in July now looks very likely and the risk is we may even get a further cut later in the year. The New Zealand dollar will have a tough time sustaining any periods of strength in this environment. Support around the 0.4150 level (resistance around 2.4096) may prove to be a viable target over the coming month. Next week from NZ we have consumer sentiment, credit card spending and trade balance data. While from the UK we have retails sales data tonight, followed by the inflation report hearings next week.
The current interbank midrate is:    NZDGBP 0.4352    GBPNZD 2.2978

The interbank range this week has been:    NZDGBP 0.4343 - 0.4552    GBPNZD 2.1966 - 2.3027
Tuesday 16th June 2:30pm(NZT)
This pair has continued to grind out fresh NZD lows in the aftermath of last Thursday’s RBNZ interest rate cut. Solid resistance around 0.4600 (support around 2.1739) should cap any periods of relative NZD strength over the coming weeks, with longer term focus firmly on further NZ dollar downside. Tonight we have another Fonterra dairy auction to digest, then on Thursday we get NZ GDP data. From the UK this week there are also plenty of data to digest. Inflation tonight will be followed by employment data and the BOE minutes on Wednesday, then later in the week we have a speech from Governor Carney and retail sales to absorb.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
NZD/GBP 0.4490 0.4400 0.4600 0.4479 - 0.4685
GBP/NZD 2.2272 2.1739 2.2727 2.1346 - 2.2326

Friday 12th June 2:00pm(NZT)
The New Zealand dollar moved sharply lower across the board yesterday after the RBNZ cut interest rates by 0.25%. Against the UK Pound this caused the cross to collapse down through 0.4600 (up to 2.1740) eventually trading to a 0.4503 low last night (high 2.2210). We can now expect some consolidation around current levels as the market cements the NZD losses. Any potently near term strength will run into heavy NZD selling ahead of 0.4600 (2.1740), with the medium and longer term outlooks all to the NZ dollar downside. If the UK economic recovery stays on track we may well be looking at levels between 0.4000 and 0.4200 (2.3810- 2.5000) over the next three to six months. To that extent from the UK next week we get data on inflation, employment and retail sales. We also have the BOE minutes to digest. The New Zealand economic calendar is looking a little lighter with just another Fonterra dairy auction, along with current account and GDP data.
The current interbank midrate is:    NZDGBP 0.4522    GBPNZD 2.2114

The interbank range this week has been:    NZDGBP 0.4503 - 0.4685    GBPNZD 2.1346 - 2.2207
Tuesday 9th June 2:00pm(NZT)
The New Zealand dollar underperformed the UK Pound on Friday night during the volatile price action seen in the wake of US employment data. This caused the pair to trade to a fresh cycle low of 0.4606 (high 2.1711). There are indications however, the downside momentum is waning and as such those NZD lows didn’t last long. So far this week we have seen a correction back above 0.4650 (below 2.1500) and I expect this move to test initial resistance around 0.4685 (support 2.1350). If that level is overcome then a much broader correction toward 0.4750 (2.1050) or potentially even 0.4800 (2.0835) could unfold. The biggest risk event on the week will be the release of the RBNZ’s interest rate decision and monetary policy statement on Thursday morning. The market is split right down the middle in terms of rate cut expectations and as such the NZD should prove volatile in the wake of the announcement. From the UK this week we have manufacturing and industrial production data, the NIESR’s estimate of GDP, and a speech from Governor Carney to digest.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
NZD/GBP 0.4640 0.4600 0.4800 0.4606 - 0.4689
GBP/NZD 2.1552 2.0833 2.1739 2.1329 - 2.1710

Friday 5th June 1:00pm(NZT)
The New Zealand dollar has remained under pressure from the UK pound this week, despite some disappointing UK data. The UK services PMI result was something of a surprise and did see the GBP lose some ground, but damage was limited by action in the wider market. The EUR has made massive gains this week and this has lent some support to the UK Pound. On the New Zealand dollar side of the equations, another fall in dairy prices at Fonterra’s latest auction was unexpected and this has helped to weigh on the outlook for the local currency. As a result the NZDGBP cross has traded to a 0.4624 low (GBPNZD 2.1626 high), and is currently only just above that level. Attention now turns to next Thursday’s RBNZ interest rate meeting and monetary policy statement. The market is divided on the prospect for an interest rate cut and as such there is potential for plenty of volatility. If the Reserve Bank hold off cutting the cash rate, as we expect, the New Zealand dollar will likely regain some ground against the GBP. This may eventually see a move back toward 0.4750 (2.1053) develop. That would however provide a selling opportunity with the longer term trend firmly to the NZD downside. From the UK next week we have the trade balance, inflation report hearings, manufacturing production, and the NIESR’s GDP estimate to digest.
The current interbank midrate is:    NZDGBP 0.4637    GBPNZD 2.1566

The interbank range this week has been:    NZDGBP 0.4624 - 0.4693    GBPNZD 2.1308 - 2.1626
Tuesday 2nd June 2:30pm(NZT)
Weakness in the New Zealand dollar has been a key factor in this pairing testing levels below 0.4700 (above 2.1277). Until late last week those declines proved temporary with the cross quickly recovering back above 0.4700 (below 2.12770) on each occasion But the release of declining NZ business confidence data on Friday proved too much for the local currency and the pair ended the week have trading down to a low of 0.4626 (high of 2.1617). Although we have seen a recovery from there in the past 36 hours, it has so far failed to come close to 0.4700 (2.1277) and this keeps the risks skewed to the NZD downside. Still to come this week from the UK we have PMI readings from the construction and service sectors to digest, along with the Bank of England rate meeting. While from NZ the economic calendar is a little light with only another dairy auction from Fonterra to draw focus.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
NZD/GBP 0.4675 0.4620 0.4800 0.4626 - 0.4739
GBP/NZD 2.1390 2.0833 2.1645 2.1102 - 2.1619

Friday 29th May 2:00pm(NZT)
The New Zealand dollar has spent much of the past three weeks ranging around 0.4720 (2.1186) to the UK Pound. This week proved no different as two separate attempts to toward the 0.4740 (2.1097) area both ran into heavy selling that forced the pair back below 0.4700 (above 2.1277). The NZD then saw intense selling pressure last night and the cross may well have ended up below 0.4650 (above 2.1505) had it not been for a somewhat disappointing outcome from the second reading of UK GDP. We may well see further ranging over the coming week with the risks skewed slightly to the downside. The topside is protected by resistance around 0.4740 (support 2.1097) and then again at 0.4800 (2.0833) and selling into any periods of strength is recommended. The interest rate differential between the UK and NZ is likely to start declining over the next 6 to 12 months. The Bank of England may well begin hiking interest rates late this year or early next year, and this could easily coincide with potential rate cuts from the RBNZ. If that were to happen the cross would move back to a more historically comfortable rate around 0.4000 (2.5000). From NZ next week we only have the overseas trade index and another Fonterra dairy auction of any note. While from the UK we get a trifecta of PMI’s from the manufacturing, construction and services sectors, along with the Bank of England rate meeting.
The current interbank midrate is:    NZDGBP 0.4670    GBPNZD 2.1413

The interbank range this week has been:    NZDGBP 0.4667 - 0.4739    GBPNZD 2.1102 - 2.1429
Tuesday 26th May 2:00pm(NZT)
The past week has seen largely sideways trading for this pair around the 0.4710 level (2.1231). The UK pound did put some sharp gains in late last week after much better than forecast retails sales data, but the dip to 0.4655 (2.1482) could not be sustained. This keeps alive the chance of a recovery back toward 0.4800 (2.0833). Price action this week could well be driven by the release of data from NZ in the form of building consents and business confidence, and UK data in the form of GDP, preliminary business investment and GFK consumer confidence.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
NZD/GBP 0.4725 0.4620 0.4800 0.4655 - 0.4782
GBP/NZD 2.1164 2.0833 2.1645 2.0914 - 2.1482

Friday 22nd May 2:00pm(NZT)
The New Zealand dollar spent much of this week ranging around above 0.4700 (2.1277) to the UK Pound. We did see a spike up to 0.4782 (down to 2.0912) in the wake of stronger than expected NZ inflation expectations and weaker than forecast UK inflation data, although this was short lived. Last night the pair broke down through 0.4700 (up through 2.1277) on the back of much stronger than forecast UK retail sales data. The cross traded as low as 0.4655 (high as 2.1482) before staging a small bounce. There are indications that downside momentum is waning, and a recovery back above 0.4700 (below 2.1277) would be the first signal that a broader recovery was unfolding. But while the market holds below 0.4700 (above 2.1277) the risks remain skewed to further tests of the downside. From NZ next week we have the trade balance, building consents and business confidence data to draw focus. While from the UK we have the second reading of GDP, preliminary business investment, consumer confidence and CBI realized sales data.
The current interbank midrate is:    NZDGBP 0.4690    GBPNZD 2.1322

The interbank range this week has been:    NZDGBP 0.4655 - 0.4782    GBPNZD 2.0914 - 2.1482
Tuesday 19th May 1:00pm(NZT)
The New Zealand dollar staged something of a corrective bounce against the UK Pound last week briefly touching 0.4800 (2.0833). Since then however we have seen a gradual decline, largely driven by weakness in the local currency. This recent weakness comes on the back of the NZ government's announcement to tax property speculators, which in combination with the central bank's recent lending restrictions, should have a dampening effect of property price gains. Minor support around 0.4675 (resistance around 2.1390) provides the initial downside barrier, while on the topside 0.4800 (2.0833) is likely to continue to cap any periods of strength. NZ inflation expectations data this afternoon will draw focus and attention will then turn to Fonterra’s latest dairy auction. From the UK this week we have minutes from the Bank of England rate meeting to digest and then later in the week we get the latest reading of retail sales. Governor Carney is also due to speak on Friday evening.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
NZD/GBP 0.4710 0.4620 0.4800 0.4680 - 0.4802
GBP/NZD 2.1231 2.0833 2.1645 2.0823 - 2.1368

Friday 15th May 1:30pm(NZT)
Pressure on the New Zealand dollar in the early part of the week helped this pair trade down to its low of 0.4680. Since then we have seen something of a corrective bounce, helped by strong NZ retail sales data and a somewhat softer than expected inflation report from the Bank of England. The bounce has however been capped by resistance around 0.4800 and while that remains the case the risks are skewed to further downside. That being said, we have seen a very sharp fall in the past three weeks from levels above 0.5100 and a period of consolidation is probably likely in the near term. From NZ next week we have inflation expectations data along with another dairy auction from Fonterra and the annual budget release. While from the UK we have inflation and retail sales data along with the BOE minutes to digest.
The current interbank midrate is:    NZDGBP 0.4730    GBPNZD 2.1142

The interbank range this week has been:    NZDGBP 0.4680 - 0.4863    GBPNZD 2.0565 - 2.1368
Tuesday 12th May 1:00pm(NZT)
We have seen a brutal fall from the NZD in this pairing over the past week. The surprising UK election outcome underwrote some significant UK Pound gains, and these have combined with broad based New Zealand dollar weakness to see the NZD pressed to the lowest level since March 2011. Support around 0.4750 (resistance around 2.1053) gave way last night, with the pair trading to a low of 0.4707 (high of 2.1245). This does open the way for further losses with the next level of support at 0.4620 (resistance at 2.1645) looking a likely target. We have the Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s financial stability report to digest tomorrow and then on Thursday we get retail sales figures. From the UK this week we have manufacturing production and employment data along with a speech from Governor Carney and the Bank of England’s inflation report.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
NZD/GBP 0.4714 0.4620 0.4800 0.4707 - 0.4997
GBP/NZD 2.1213 2.0833 2.1645 2.0012 - 2.1246

Friday 8th May 1:30pm(NZT)
The New Zealand dollar has lost substantial ground to the UK Pound this week. We saw a sharp period of weakness in the NZD after disappointing employment data was released, and in the past 12 hours the GBP itself has made solid gains. Early exit polls from the UK general election suggest the Conservatives have a significant lead. This flies in the face of all the pre-election polling that said it would be a neck and neck race with Labour. A Conservative - Lib Dem coalition would be viewed as a positive result by the financial markets. There is support around 0.4800 (resistance around 2.0833) and then again at 0.4750 (2.1053) and that last level should provide a strong downside barrier. Next week from NZ we have the RBNZ financial stability report, a speech from Governor Wheeler, the Business NZ manufacturing index and retails sales data. While from the UK we have the Bank of England rate meeting on Monday, followed later in the week by manufacturing production, employment data, and the BOE inflation report.
The current interbank midrate is:    NZDGBP 0.4835    GBPNZD 2.0683

The interbank range this week has been:    NZDGBP 0.4819 - 0.4997    GBPNZD 2.0012 - 2.0750
Tuesday 5th May 2:00pm(NZT)
After trading down to a low of 0.4913 (high 2.0354) in the wake of last Thursday’s RBNZ rate statement, this pair has managed a gradual recovery back toward 0.5000 (2.0000). The NZD recovery was helped by disappointing UK manufacturing PMI data on Friday which put the GBP under some pressure. Attention is now firmly focused on the outcome of Thursday’s UK general election. We do get PMI readings from the construction and service sector ahead of the election result, but their impact will be limited by election uncertainty. If the current Conservative coalition can regain power the GBP will react positively. This will likely drive the pair cross back down toward, or even under, 0.4900 (up over 2.0410). A hung parliament, or a Labour led coalition should see further pressure on the GBP and this will push the NZD cross back up toward 0.5100 (down to 1.9610). Tonight from NZ we have the latest Fonterra dairy auction to throw in the mix and then tomorrow we get employment data.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
NZD/GBP 0.4985 0.4900 0.5100 0.4913 - 0.5048
GBP/NZD 2.0060 1.9608 2.0408 1.9809 - 2.0355

Friday 1st May 2:45pm(NZT)
The New Zealand dollar spent much of this week trading quietly just above the 0.5000 (below 2.0000) level to the UK Pound. Disappointing UK GDP data caused a period of GBP weakness on Tuesday night, but the cross only got as high as 0.5048 (low as 1.9800). The market then really livened up early yesterday morning in the wake of the RBNZ rate statement. That statement confirmed what Deputy Governor McDermott said in a speech last week, that is they are not considering interest rate hikes, and the risk is we could see a cut if demand weakens. This confirmation that the central bank is leaning toward rate cuts saw the NZD immediately under heavy selling pressure. The pair came close to support around 0.4900 (resistance 2.0410) before putting in a solid recovery. We now head into next week with the main focus, and key risk, being Thursday’s UK general election. It is proving to be a very tight race and the UK Pound could put in a significant reaction to the ultimate result. The most GBP friendly outcome would be a return of the current Conservative government, and the most GBP unfriendly result being a Labour/SNP coalition. From NZ we also have another dairy auction and employment data to digest.
The current interbank midrate is:    NZDGBP 0.4943    GBPNZD 2.0231

The interbank range this week has been:    NZDGBP 0.4913 - 0.5048    GBPNZD 1.9809 - 2.0355
Tuesday 28th Apr 3:30pm(NZT)
The past week has seen a sharp NZ dollar pullback in this pair from levels above 0.5160 (below 1.9380) all the way to support around 0.5000 (resistance 2.0000). A combination of New Zealand dollar weakness and UK Pound strength has driven the move and we may well now tread water for a couple of days as we await the RBNZ rate statement on Thursday morning. We do have UK GDP data tonight to add some volatility, although the outcome will likely be very close to expectation which is for +0.5%. While support around 0.5000 (resistance 2.0000) remains intact, the NZD could easily drift higher, but be wary of any sustained move below 0.5000  (above 2.0000) as this would open the way for NZD losses to 0.4900 (2.0400) and potentially even 0.4800 (2.0830).
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
NZD/GBP 0.5010 0.4900 0.5100 0.4993 - 0.5179
GBP/NZD 1.9960 1.9608 2.0408 1.9310 - 2.0028

Friday 24th Apr 2:00pm(NZT)
The New Zealand dollar spent much of this week trading around the 0.5150 (1.9417) level to the UK Pound. Those were very elevated NZD levels and a couple of key releases in the past 48 hours has completely undermined support for the NZD, driving the cross back toward 0.5000 (2.0000). The initial trigger for the move came in the form of the BOE minutes. They were more upbeat than the market had been expecting and this boosted demand for the Pound, which has been struggling recently on the back of election uncertainty. The New Zealand dollar then came under pressure after the RBNZ deputy governor said the bank wasn’t considering any interest rate increases. Initial support for the NZD comes in around 0.5000 (2.0000) and this may well put a floor for further NZD weakness ahead of the UK election. Next week we have the RBNZ rate statement to digest along with UK data in the form of GDP and manufacturing PMI.
The current interbank midrate is:    NZDGBP 0.5030    GBPNZD 1.9881

The interbank range this week has been:    NZDGBP 0.5025 - 0.5179    GBPNZD 1.9310 - 1.9901
Tuesday 21st Apr 3:30pm(NZT)
The past week has seen the New Zealand dollar outperform the UK Pound even in the face of encouraging UK employment data. The local currency also received boost at the start of this week from news of further easing’s from the Peoples Bank of China, and this helped the pair climb back to 0.5160 (below 1.9380) which marks the initial level of NZD resistance. The 0.5160 (1.9380) level has capped NZD gains on two previous occasions in the past month and last night the pair failed there again. So far we have only seen a small pullback with the market currently trading at 0.5135 (1.9475), but a further correction below 0.5100 (above 1.9610) looks likely. Uncertainty around the outcome of the upcoming UK election has helped drive the pair up to its recent highs, but the latest polls show the Conservative government gaining a small lead in the race and this might help ease some pressure on the Pound. The focus now turns to UK data in the form of retail sales and the minutes from the latest Bank of England (BOE) meeting.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
NZD/GBP 0.5135 0.5000 0.5200 0.5077 - 0.5165
GBP/NZD 1.9474 1.9231 2.0000 1.9360 - 1.9698
 
Friday 17th Apr 1:00pm(NZT)
The UK Pound continues to be weighed on by uncertainty around the upcoming general election. This is likely to persist until the outcome of the May 7th vote is known. In the meantime we can expect choppy trading for this pair and the past week has provided just that. The cross tumbled from 0.5150 (1.9417) early in the week after soft Chinese trade data weighed on the New Zealand dollar, but since then the pair has managed to recover back over 0.5100 (under 1.9608). I expect the broad parameters of 0.5000 to 0.5200 (2.0000 to 1.9231) to contain price action ahead of the UK election. Selling toward the upper end of that range is the preferred strategy. Tonight from the UK we have the latest employment data to digest and this should show another healthy fall in the claimant count (unemployment claims). Next week from New Zealand we have inflation data to draw focus, while from the UK we have the Bank of England minutes and retails sales numbers to digest.
The current interbank midrate is:     NZDGBP 0.5128     GBPNZD 1.9501

The interbank range this week has been:     NZDGBP 0.5071 - 0.5159     GBPNZD 1.9385 - 1.9721
Tuesday 14th Apr 2:30pm(NZT)
Disappointing manufacturing and construction data along with uncertainty about the outcome of the general election on May 7th kept the UK Pound under pressure for much of the past week. This helped drive the pair up to its 0.5159 high (low 1.9384). In the past 24 hours however, we have seen a sharp pullback in the NZD. This was initiated by weakness in the New Zealand dollar in the wake of yesterday’s poor Chinese trade data, but overnight the latest UK poll has the Conservatives opening a small lead and the Pound reacted positively. With a long way still to go before the UK elections we can expect plenty of volatility on the back of further poll results. Selling NZD into periods of strength toward, or above 0.5150 (below 1.9420), remains the favoured play. I still feel 0.5200 (1.9230) will keep a cap on any periods of NZD strength, unless we see a big swing in favour of a Labour - SNP coalition. That sort of result would heap pressure the GBP and all bets would be off. This week from NZ we have another dairy auction from Fonterra to digest, while from the UK we have inflation and employment data to draw focus.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
NZD/GBP 0.5090 0.5000 0.5200 0.5048 - 0.5159
GBP/NZD 1.9646 1.9231 2.0000 1.9485 - 1.9811

Friday 10th Apr 1:45pm(NZT)
This pair traded down to support at 0.5000 (up to 2.0000) toward the end of last week, but since then we have seen a solid NZD bounce back up over 0.5100 (under 1.9610). Without a doubt the UK Pound has been weighed on by uncertainty around the upcoming general election and this has been a key driver of GBP weakness in recent days. The GBP has seen the odd period of strength thanks to improving services PMI data and the announcement of a $70 billion takeover of BG Group by Royal Dutch Shell, but they have been short lived. Topside resistance for the pair comes in at 0.5160 (support at 1.9380) and then again at 0.5200 (1.9230). I would be surprised to see a sustained move above 0.5200(below 1.9230), but we have a long way to go before the election and at this point it seems the UK Pound has few friends. Tonight from the UK we have manufacturing production data, and next week we get the latest readings on inflation and employment. From NZ next week we have business confidence, another Fonterra dairy auction and the Business NZ manufacturing index.
The current interbank midrate is:    NZDGBP 0.5155    GBPNZD 1.9399

The interbank range this week has been:    NZDGBP 0.5048 - 0.5145    GBPNZD 1.9435 - 1.9811
Thursday 2nd April 2:30pm(NZT)
The UK Pound has seen something of turnaround in fortunes recently thanks in part to improving data. GDP and retails sales figures this week have both come in better than forecast and this has helped support the GBP. But without a doubt gains have been limited by the uncertainty around what could be a very close election on May 7th. The improved GBP performance has been a key factor in driving the NZDGBP cross back down from levels above 0.5100 (GBPNZD below 1.9608), where it was trading just over a week ago. The pair actually traded down to key support at 0.5000 (2.000) overnight after Fonterra’s latest dairy auction posted another big decline. That result weighed on the New Zealand dollar, at least temporarily, and it should continue to undermine support for the local currency going forward. With the initial pullback target of 0.5000 (2.0000) now achieved the pair may see some consolidation around current levels, or even a bounce toward 0.5060 (1.9763). We may now have to wait for the outcome of the UK general election before we see a period of sustained GBP strength that could drive the cross back toward 0.4900, or lower (2.0408, or higher).
The current interbank midrate is:    NZDGBP 0.5020    GBPNZD 1.9920

The interbank range this week has been:    NZDGBP 0.5001 - 0.5126    GBPNZD 1.9507 - 1.9996
Tuesday 31st Mar 2:30pm(NZT)
This pairs time above 0.5100 (below 1.6010) only lasted a few days and we have seen significant pullback from the 0.5162 (1.9375) NZ dollar peak seen last Wednesday. I expect the downside pressure to continue with the NZD likely to underperform heading into tomorrow night’s dairy auction. Another soft result there could well see the pair back toward the 0.5000 (2.0000) level. Retail sales data from the UK last week was positive although, we are yet to see a significant increase in support for the GBP. This week from the UK we have manufacturing and construction PMI’s to digest, both of which should indicate the UK’s economic recovery remains in good shape. We could easily see increased volatility in the GBP over the coming weeks with campaigning for what looks like a close election now under way. Selling into any periods of strength above 0.5100 (below 1.09610) remains the favoured play.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
NZD/GBP 0.5068 0.5000 0.5200 0.5062 - 0.5162
GBP/NZD 1.9732 1.9231 2.0000 1.9371 - 1.9756

Friday 27th Mar 1:30pm(NZT)
Gains for this pair continued in the first half of the week with the New Zealand dollar reaching 0.5162 (1.9382) against the UK Pound. We have seen a corrective pullback from that NZD high/GBP low, helped by disappointing NZ trade balance data. The UK saw inflation come in a touch under expectation at 0.0%, but this was countered by much better than forecast retail sales. However, the GBP has so far failed to see a resurgence of broad based support and part of the reason may well be the uncertainty around the upcoming general election. That been said, I don’t expect to see levels above 0.5100 (below 1.9610) last for too long and selling NZ dollars into strength  is recommended for those looking to purchase Pounds. From NZ next week we have business confidence data and another Fonterra dairy auction to digest. While from the UK we get the current account, the final reading of GDP, manufacturing PMI, and construction PMI.
The current interbank midrate is:    NZDGBP 0.5110    GBPNZD 1.9569

The interbank range this week has been:    NZDGBP 0.5022 - 0.5162    GBPNZD 1.9371 - 1.9913
Tuesday 24th Mar 12:30pm(NZT)
The New Zealand dollar has been a standout performer during the past week’s heightened market volatility. The NZD has traded to post float highs against the AUD and the EUR, and against the GBP the cross is now back above 0.5100 (below 1.9007). Broad GBP underperformance has been a feature of the past two weeks and in that time the pair has rallied from 0.4800 (sold from 2.0835) to where it is today. Disappointing UK wage data and the uncertainty of an upcoming general election can all be pointed to as factors for the recent GBP weakness, but it starting to feel like the move is overdone. Without a doubt the break above 0.5100 (below 1.9607) in the past 24 hours opens the way for a spike higher toward 0.5200 (lower to 1.9230), but I suspect we could easily see a top put in place ahead of 0.5200  (low 1.9230) over the coming week. Selling into strength is therefore the recommended play, for an eventual test back toward 0.5000 (2.0000). We have some key releases from the UK this week starting with inflation data tonight. This will be followed by retail sales figures on Thursday evening and a speech from Governor Carney on Friday.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
NZD/GBP 0.5125 0.5000 0.5200 0.4933 - 0.5130
GBP/NZD 1.9512 1.9231 2.0000 1.9493 - 2.0272

Thursday 19th Mar 2:45pm(NZT)
Despite some weakness in the New Zealand dollar in the wake of a soft dairy auction, this pair spent much of the week knocking on the door of resistance around 0.5000 (support around 2.000). The UK Pound has been under more pressure than one would have expected recently and last night’s UK wage data didn’t help. It was in fact enough to dive this pair up through 0.5000 (2.0000) in the hours before the FOMC statement. That statement added some real volatility to the market, but in the wash-up the NZD seems to have gained a solid footing above the key 0.5000 (2.0000) level. This certainly increase the chances of an extension toward 0.5100 (1.9608). Since August last year there have been three occasions where the NZDGBP cross has traded to 0.5100 (down to 1.9608) or over, and on each occasion the move was short lived with a sharp correction of the NZD lower ensuing. I would expect to see a similar reaction over the coming week(s) should the pair get back up there. Those looking to purchase UK Pounds should take advantage of any potential near term strength. Tonight from the UK we have the government's annual budget release to digest, then next week we get inflation and retail sales data. From New Zealand next week we just have consumer sentiment and the trade balance set for release.
The current interbank midrate is:    NZDGBP 0.5020    GBPNZD 1.9920

The interbank range this week has been:    NZDGBP 0.4886 - 0.5035    GBPNZD 1.9860 - 2.0469
Tuesday 17th Mar 3:00pm(NZT)
The New Zealand dollar has been making relentless gains against the UK Pound ever since last Thursday’s RBNZ monetary policy statement. Gains have come on the back of both NZD strength, and GBP weakness. The GBP has seen a fair amount of selling pressure recently and it’s hard to point a finger at exactly why. A number of data releases from the UK did come in worse than expected last week, but these haven’t impacted the overall economic outlook at all. Upcoming UK elections are probably still a little too far away to really impact the currency, although confidence indicators may see some moderation due to uncertainty over the coming weeks. The most likely driver of recent GBP supply is probably profit taking on the EURGBP cross which has seen a big move over the past couple of months, and recently approached the key psychological level of 0.7000. This combined with some better than forecast EUR data has seen those holding GBP’s against the EUR unwind positions and lock some profit in. This increased supply of GBP’s has helped the cross to the NZD trade back up to resistance around 0.5000 (support at 2.0000). As this move has not been driven by economic fundamentals and more by just market positioning, I would expect the 0.5000 (2.0000) level to continue to cap the NZD outperformance. Those looking to purchase GBP’s should therefore take advantage of this period of relative NZD strength. From the UK this week we have employment data and the Bank of England minutes to digest. While from NZ we have another dairy auction from Fonterra along with GDP data.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
NZD/GBP 0.4975 0.4800 0.5000 0.4800 - 0.4999
GBP/NZD 2.0101 2.0000 2.0833 2.0003 - 2.0834

Friday 13th Mar 12:30pm(NZT)
It has been an interesting week for this pair, with a very sharp turnaround in the past 24 hours. Up until that point the New Zealand dollar was seen relentless pressure from the UK Pound with the pair trading down to 0.4800 (up to 2.0830) ahead of the RBNZ’s statement yesterday. That very neutral statement did nothing to encourage further selling and the NZD reacted positively jumping toward 0.4880 (down to 2.0490). Overnight the NZD gains continued, but this time it was GBP weakness that drove the leg higher. Bank of England Governor Carney raised concerns about the strength of the GBP and also suggested they may have to take into account persistent low inflation. The pair traded all the way to 0.4973 ( 2.0110) before the move ran out of steam. That’s a 3.5% move on the cross in under 24 hours. After a move of that size I can’t imagine there will be enough momentum to seriously threaten resistance around 0.5000 (support 2.0000). So selling NZD into this period of strength is recommended for those looking to purchase GBP’s. I would expect to see a pullback to around 0.4900 over the coming week. Next week from the UK we get average cash earnings data, claimant count change, the Bank of England minutes, and the annual budget release. While from NZ we have another Fonterra dairy auction along with current account and GDP data to digest.
The current interbank midrate is:    NZDGBP 0.4965    GBPNZD 2.0141

The interbank range this week has been:    NZDGBP 0.4800 - 0.4973    GBPNZD 2.0107 - 2.0834
Tuesday 10th Mar 2:30pm(NZT)
The New Zealand dollar has been under consistent pressure from the UK Pound since the RBNZ announced plans last week to create a new asset class for property investing. The pair paused around the 0.4900 (2.0408) level, and actually managed a bounce to 0.4942 (2.0235) ahead of US employment data on Friday evening. In the wake of that release however, the NZD again underperformed and the cross quickly traded down through minor support at 0.4900 (resistance at 2.0408). This is very negative price action and it keeps the focus firmly on the NZD downside. At test toward key support around 0.4750 (resistance around 2.1053) may well unfold over the coming week or two. The major event this week will be the RBNZ’s monetary policy statement on Thursday morning. Expect the NZD to remain heavy in the lead up to that release. From the UK this week we have a speech from Governor Carney to digest, data on manufacturing and industrial production, the NIESR’s GDP estimate and the trade balance.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
NZD/GBP 0.4855 0.4750 0.4900 0.4851 - 0.4985
GBP/NZD 2.0597 2.0408 2.1053 2.0060 - 2.0613

Friday 6th Mar 2:00pm(NZT)
It has been an interesting week for this pairing. After repeated attempts to overcome resistance around 0.4900 (support around 2.0408), which had capped the pair for the past five weeks, the New Zealand dollar burst above there on Wednesday night. That opened the floodgates and sharp rally to 0.4985 (sell-off to 2.0060) ensued. The move was triggered in part by an extremely weak EUR, which in turn pressured the GBP. But it has proven to be very short lived. Yesterday’s announcement from the RBNZ that they are looking to create a new asset class for property investing completely undermined support for the NZD. The pair quickly fell all the way back to 0.4900 (2.0408), a level which will now act as support. Near term direction is now a very tough call. Any move below 0.4900 (above 2.0408) would be a negative signal and likely encourage further selling. Until then however, there is potential for a bounce toward 0.4950 (2.0202) to develop. Next week from New Zealand we have the RBNZ rate meeting on Thursday to draw focus. This will be followed by the Business NZ manufacturing index on Friday. While from the UK we get manufacturing and industrial production data, the NIESR’s estimate of GDP, and the trade balance.
The current interbank midrate is:    NZDGBP 0.4910    GBPNZD 2.0367

The interbank range this week has been:    NZDGBP 0.4880 - 0.4985    GBPNZD 2.0060 - 2.0493
Tuesday 3rd Mar 2:30pm(NZT)
It has been a very quiet week for this pair with tight trading range just below 0.4900 (above 2.0408) containing price action for much of the past five days. We have seen some supportive economic releases from both countries recently and this has reinforced the lack of overall direction. Taking a look at the broader picture, while resistance around 0.4900 (support around 2.0408) contains any periods of NZD strength, the risks remains skewed to the downside and a move back toward 0.4800 (up to 2.0833). Volatility in the wake of this afternoons RBA rate decision could easily spill over into this pair and provide some much needed direction. Still to come this week from the UK we have the construction and service sector PMI’s to digest. Governor Carney is also due to speak tonight and then on Thursday we have the BOE rate decision. In NZ the focus turn to tonight’s dairy auction from Fonterra.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
NZD/GBP 0.4886 0.4750 0.4900 0.4815 - 0.4922
GBP/NZD 2.0467 2.0408 2.1053 2.0316 - 2.0768

Friday 27th Feb 1:00pm(NZT)
The past week has seen a continuation of the directionless range trading that has dominated this pair over the last month. Support toward 0.4800 (resistance toward 2.0833) contained some early NZD weakness that was triggered by declining NZ inflation expectations. The New Zealand dollar has recovered over the past couple of days helped by strong trade balance and migration data, but resistance around 0.4900 (support around 2.0408)  continues to cap the topside. UK data this week hasn’t had a big impact, although next week could be a different story. We get the trifecta of PMI’s from the manufacturing, construction and service sectors, along with the Bank of England rate meeting. While from NZ next week we just have another Fonterra dairy auction to draw focus.
The current interbank midrate is:    NZDGBP 0.4888    GBPNZD 2.0458

The interbank range this week has been:    NZDGBP 0.4815 - 0.4916    GBPNZD 2.0342 - 2.0768
Tuesday 24th Feb 2:30pm(NZT)
The New Zealand dollar has traded in a very tight range against the UK Pound the past week with little overall direction. The pair has traded just above 0.4900 (below 2.04080 on a number of occasions, but those gains have not been able to be sustained. From my perspective this means the broad resistance area of 0.4900 remains intact and while that’s the case, the risks are skewed to the downside. I would expect to see the pair drift lower and test levels under 0.4800 (over 2.0833) again. A sharp move up through 0.4900 (down through 2.0408) however, would bring that view into question and open the way for a test of the psychologically important 0.5000 (2.0000) level. From New Zealand this week we get a speech from Governor Wheeler along with the trade balance, building consents, and business confidence data. While from the UK we have mortgage approvals, the Nationwide house price index, the second estimate of GDP, and preliminary business investment data.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
NZD/GBP 0.4870 0.4750 0.4900 0.4860 - 0.4916
GBP/NZD 2.0534 2.0408 2.1053 2.0340 - 2.0576

Thursday 19th Feb 2:30pm(NZT)
The New Zealand dollar has made gains against the UK Pound this week help by strong retail sales data and a further recovery in dairy prices. Resistance around 0.4900 (support around 2.0408) has so far contained the pair for the most part, and with the UK also releasing strong data overnight resistance around that level has only been reinforced. UK employment data came out better than expected at last night’s release and this helped to boost demand for the GBP. That data drove the pair down from just above 0.4900 toward 0.4860 (just below 2.0408 to 2.0576). Expect resistance around 0.4900 (support around 2.0408) to continue to provide a tough barrier to further gains in the near term. Next week from New Zealand we have inflation expectations, the trade balance, building consents, and business confidence. While from the UK we have CBI Realized Sales, the second estimate of GDP, and Preliminary Business Investment data.
The current interbank midrate is:    NZDGBP 0.4892    GBPNZD 2.0442

The interbank range this week has been:    NZDGBP 0.4792 - 0.4916    GBPNZD 2.0340 - 2.0869
Tuesday 17th Feb 3:30pm(NZT)
The New Zealand dollar has made further gains against the UK Pound this week trading just shy of resistance at 0.4900 (2.0410 support) in the past 12 hours. Strong retail sales data from NZ yesterday has underpinned these recent gains. Whether or not we see a break above 0.4900 (below 2.0408) will largely depend on the outcome of a number of key economic releases from both countries over the coming days. Tonight from the UK we have inflation figures, then later in the week we get employment and retail sales data. While from NZ, we have the latest dairy auction from Fonterra to draw focus. A failure to break above 0.4900 (below 2.0408) should see the pair eventually turn back down and test levels under 0.4800 (over 2.0833). A move above 0.4900 (below 2.0408) will open the way for gains back toward 0.5000 (2.0000).
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
NZD/GBP 0.4886 0.4750 0.4900 0.4792 - 0.4892
GBP/NZD 2.0467 2.0405 2.1053 2.0442 - 2.0869

Friday 13th Feb 2:30pm(NZT)
There has been nothing released this week to change the current forecast of further range trading between 0.4750 and 0.4900 (2.0400 - 2.1050) for this pair. Volatility remains elevated and this was evident last night with the price action around the release of the Bank of England inflation report. The pair jumped sharply from below 0.4800 (above 2.0830) to 0.4864 (2.0560), before settling around the 0.4825 (2.0725) level. Expect more of the same over the coming week with focus in the UK turning to the latest inflation reading, employment data, the Bank of England minutes, and retail sales. While from New Zealand we have another dairy auction from Fonterra to digest along with the latest NZ retail sales data.
The current interbank midrate is:    NZDGBP 0.4830    GBPNZD 2.0704

The interbank range this week has been:    NZDGBP 0.4792 - 0.4888    GBPNZD 2.0460 - 2.0869
Monday 9th Feb 4:00pm(NZT)
The past week has seen little overall direction for this pair with the current price of 0.4825 (2.0725) almost identical to where it was trading this time last Monday. We have however seen a healthy range over the past week and further volatility is expected in the near term. A range of 0.4750 to 0.4900 (2.1053 to 2.0408) may well continue to contain the pair with direction largely led from offshore releases. Tomorrow sees UK manufacturing production data hit the wires, then on Thursday we have the Bank of England inflation report and a speech from Governor Carney to digest. From NZ we only have the Business NZ Manufacturing Index set for release on Thursday.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
NZD/GBP 0.4825 0.4750 0.4900 0.4778 - 0.4907
GBP/NZD 2.0725 2.0408 2.1053 2.0377 - 2.0931

Thursday 5th Feb 2:30pm(NZT)
This pair traded to within spitting distance of the key 0.4750 NZD support level (2.100) on Tuesday afternoon in the wake of the Reserve Bank of Australia’s decision to cut rates. But much like it did from the same level in September last year, the cross quickly recovered and within a few hours it was approaching 0.4900 (2.0410). The move was driven by a bounce in commodity prices which helped to trigger a broad US dollar squeeze and the NZD dramatically outperformed the GBP during this period of heightened market volatility. Both the UK and NZ have seen positive economic data releases this week and this has only added to the market volatility. With resistance around 0.4900 currently capping the NZ dollar topside (2.0410 support), the risk is skewed toward another test lower. We may well find ourselves trapped between 0.4750 and 0.4900 (2.0410 - 2.1050) over the coming week. The only data of note from New Zealand next week is the Business NZ Manufacturing Index out on Thursday. From the UK we have the Bank of England rate meeting tonight and the trade balance tonight to digest. These will be followed by manufacturing production numbers and the BOE inflation report next week.
The current interbank midrate is:    NZDGBP 0.4850    GBPNZD 2.0619

The interbank range this week has been:    NZDGBP 0.4778 - 0.4907    GBPNZD 2.0377 - 2.0931
Tuesday 3rd Feb 4:00pm(NZT)
The New Zealand dollar snapped lower against the UK Pound after the RBNZ moved to a neutral stance last Thursday. The pair traded down to just under 0.4800 (high over 2.0833) heading into the weekend, but has the NZD managed a small bounce in the early part of this week. The broader trend however is still very much to the NZD downside and only a break above 0.4900 (below 2.0408) would threaten that. We have now seen a very sharp move down from the 0.5200 (1.9231) level that was trading less than a month ago and with momentum starting to fade this would suggest a break below the 2014 low at 0.4747 (2.1066 high) is unlikely in the near term. There is plenty of data from both countries to digest this week with the construction and service sector PMI’s from the UK along with the Bank of England rate meeting. From NZ we have Fonterra’s latest dairy auction, employment data and a speech from Governor Wheeler over the coming days.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
NZD/GBP 0.4860 0.4750 0.4900 0.4792 - 0.4938
GBP/NZD 2.0576 2.0408 2.1053 2.0252 - 2.0867

Friday 30th Jan 2:00pm(NZT)
The New Zealand dollar has been under pressure from the GBP all week, but the big move came after the RBNZ statement yesterday. It should have come as no shock to anyone that the central bank moved to a more neutral stance, but it seemed to give the green light to sellers of the local currency. The pair plummeted through support around 0.4900 (resistance around 2.0408) and with the pressure maintained overnight an NZD low of 0.4804 (high of 2.0816) has traded. The target must now be a test of 0.4750 (2.1053) which briefly traded at the end of September last year. I would think that level will provide good support, at least in the near term. Caution is advised as we are in a period of significant volatility and markets could well overshoot any levels that might seem reasonable. Topside NZD resistance now comes in around 0.4900 (support at 2.0408) and this should cap any near term New Zealand dollar recovery. Employment data and the latest dairy auction will draw focus next week from New Zealand. While from the UK we have PMI’s from the manufacturing, construction and service sectors along with the Bank of England rate meeting.
The current interbank midrate is:    NZDGBP 0.4825    GBPNZD 2.0725

The interbank range this week has been:    NZDGBP 0.4804 - 0.5014    GBPNZD 1.9946 - 2.0818
Tuesday 27th Jan 4:30pm(NZT)
This pair has continued to decline driven by weakness in the New Zealand dollar and some gains in the UK Pound. Last week’s soft NZ inflation data continues to weigh on the local currency as does the growing expectation that the RBNZ will be on hold, in terms of interest rates, well into mid-2016. We will hear from the RBNZ themselves on Thursday morning when they release their official cash rate review and this event holds the biggest risk on the week. Data from the UK last week in the form of employment and retails sales were both supportive and this has underpinned the GBP’s recent gains. Tonight we get UK GDP and this is expected at a comfortable 0.6%. Topside resistance comes in around 0.5000 (support around 2.0000) while on the downside there is minor support around 0.4900 (resistance 2.0408) then major support at 0.4750 (resistance 2.1053).
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
NZD/GBP 0.4920 0.4900 0.5000 0.4904 - 0.5159
GBP/NZD 2.0325 2.0000 2.0408 1.9383 - 2.0392

Friday 23th Jan 2:00pm(NZT)
The New Zealand dollar has dramatically underperformed the UK Pound this week. The GBP itself has seen periods of pressure thanks to the Bank of England minutes, and more recently on the back of the ECB decision, but it has still managed to outperform the NZD. The local currency has been weighed on by softer than forecast NZ inflation data and a growing realization that the RBNZ are likely to be on hold well into next year. A surprise rate cut from the Bank of Canada also pressured the entire commodity block, which includes New Zealand and Australia. The pair broke back down through 0.5000 (up through 2.0000) for a time, and we have only seen a recovery back above there very recently in the wake of last night’s ECB decision. Minor resistance around 0.5040 (support around 1.9841) provides the initial barrier to further NZ dollar gains and I expect this to cap the topside for now. Further investigations below 0.5000 (above 2.0000) seem likely in the near term. Tonight from the UK we get the latest reading from retails sales, and next week we have GDP data to draw focus. While in NZ attention turns to the RBNZ official cash rate review on Thursday.
The current interbank midrate is:    NZDGBP 0.5005    GBPNZD 1.9980

The interbank range this week has been:    NZDGBP 0.4964 - 0.5173    GBPNZD 1.9329 - 2.0147
Tuesday 20th Jan 3:30pm(NZT)
The UK Pound saw a surprising amount of pressure in the first week of this year and combined with some relative strength in the New Zealand dollar, the cross briefly traded just shy of 0.5200 (1.9230). Soft UK data obviously had some impact, but it seems more likely the selling of UK Pounds was just flow related and the impact was exaggerated due to the thin liquidity at that time of year. The pair quickly turned around and corrected all the way toward 0.5050 (1.9800) before last Thursday’s Swiss National Bank announcement. In the wake of that central bank surprise positions in many currencies were cut / trimmed and this benefited the NZD much more than the GBP. At a result the pair lept back up above 0.5150 (below 1.9420) again. It currently trades just below 0.5150 (1.9420) and we believe these levels offer good value selling of NZD’s for GBP’s. Tonight we have the latest dairy auction from Fonterra and tomorrow we get NZ inflation data. From the UK this week we have employment and wage data along with the BOE minutes on Wednesday, then on Friday we have the latest reading from retails sales.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
NZD/GBP 0.5148 0.5000 0.5200 0.5058 - 0.5174
GBP/NZD 1.9425 1.9231 2.0000 1.9328 - 1.9771

Friday 19th Dec 1:00pm(NZT)
We have seen little overall direction for this pair over the past week. Both currencies have seen periods of strength on the back of fundamental data releases. From New Zealand we have seen a small increase in dairy prices along with much better than forecast GDP data. While from the UK employment and wage data continues to be supportive and last night’s retail sales figures suggest the consumer is feeling very positive. The net result is that the cross seems comfortable trading between 0.4900 and 0.5000 (2.0408 and 5.0000) at least for the time being. I suspect resistance around 0.5000 (support at 2.0000) will be stronger than support around 0.4900 (resistance at 2.0408) and the longer term risk is therefore to the NZ dollar underperformance. But we may well see an extended period of choppy sideways action over the holiday period before an broader trend develops sometime in the New Year.
The current interbank midrate is:    NZDGBP 0.4950    GBPNZD 2.0202

The interbank range this week has been:    NZDGBP 0.9390 - 0.9506    GBPNZD 1.0520 - 1.0649
Tuesday 16th Dec 4:00pm(NZT)
Last Thursday’s surprisingly hawkish RBNZ monetary policy statement saw this pair spike up once again toward the 0.5000 (2.0000) level. Since then we have seen a gradual pull back with the pair currently trading around 0.4950 (2.0202). There is a rash of key data set for release from both countries over the coming days which will no doubt set the tone for the pair heading into the holiday period. From NZ we have another dairy auction and GDP data to digest. While from the UK we get the results of bank stress tests tonight along with inflation data. On Wednesday we have employment numbers and on Thursday we get retail sales. Resistance around 0.5000 (support around 2.0000) should continue to provide a relatively tough NZD topside barrier, while there is downside support toward 0.4800 (resistance toward 2.0833).
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
NZD/GBP 0.4950 0.4800 0.5000 0.4868 - 0.4995
GBP/NZD 2.0202 2.0000 2.0833 2.0019 - 2.0544

Thursday 11th Dec 4:00pm(NZT)
The early stages of this week saw the New Zealand dollar remain under pressure against the UK Pound, trading down to 0.4868 (up to 2.0542). A small recovery from that NZD low saw the pair trading around 0.4900 (2.0408) this morning, as we headed into the RBNZ monetary policy statement. The central bank surprised many with a more hawkish statement than expected and this has given the NZD a major boost. The RBNZ are once again suggesting the need for further rate hikes, after dropping that call in the previous statement. It seems the pair could now well gravitate back to the 0.5000 (2.0000) level in the near term. On the downside there is minor support around 0.4935 (resistance around 2.0263) and that is likely to contain any weakness heading into next week. However, there is plenty to digest in the form of economic releases next week. From the UK we get inflation, the BOE minutes, employment data, and retails sales. While from NZ we have another dairy auction along with GDP data.
The current interbank midrate is:    NZDGBP 0.4975    GBPNZD 2.0101

The interbank range this week has been:    NZDGBP 0.4868 - 0.4983    GBPNZD 2.0070 - 2.0542
Tuesday 9th Dec 3:30pm(NZT)
The past few days have seen further losses for the New Zealand dollar against the UK Pound, and currently the pair is now trading just under 0.4900 (over 2.0408). Supportive data showing the manufacturing, construction and service sectors of the UK economy continue to expand at a healthy pace has helped the GBP of late. While the NZD is suffering on the back of expected downward revisions from Fonterra, in terms of their forecast payout for 2014/15, and from the RBNZ in relation to their projections for GDP and inflation. Fonterra’s announcement is expected anytime in the next 48 hours, while the RBNZ release their monetary policy statement on Thursday morning. These two releases will like be the driver of the cross over the course of this week. We do have UK manufacturing production data tonight to digest, along with the trade balance and an estimate of GDP on Wednesday. The risks remain skewed to the downside for the pair, and a move toward 0.4800 (2.0833) is possible over the coming weeks.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
NZD/GBP 0.4880 0.4800 0.5000 0.4888 - 0.5015
GBP/NZD 2.0492 2.0000 2.0833 1.9939 - 2.0460

Thursday 4th Dec 3:30pm(NZT)
The New Zealand dollar has finally managed to pull itself away from the 0.5000 (2.0000) level to the UK Pound this week. The key factor was another decline in dairy prices, in particular those of whole milk powder, which weighed on the local currency. Add to this some strong data from the UK which showed the manufacturing, construction and service sectors continue to expand at a very healthy rate, and the NZDGBP cross is now trading just above the weeks low at 0.4940 (2.0243). The risks are still skewed to the downside and a test of 0.4900 (2.0408) seems likely. Next week from New Zealand we have the RBNZ monetary policy statement to digest on Thursday. While from the UK we have the Bank of England rate meeting tonight, which will be followed next week by manufacturing production, industrial production and the trade balance.
The current interbank midrate is:    NZDGBP 0.4939    GBPNZD 2.0247

The interbank range this week has been:    NZDGBP 0.4933 - 0.5033    GBPNZD 1.9871 - 2.0273
Tuesday 2nd Dec 1:30pm(NZT)
This pair broke above key resistance around 0.9150 (support at 1.0929) last week as the Australian dollar suffered at the hands of declining commodity prices. Once clear of that resistance gains have continued to just shy of 0.9300 (1.0753) last night. Although the near term trend has firmly been to the NZD topside the past week, there is potential that resistance around 0.9300 (support around 1.0753) could cap this move. A pull back toward 0.9200 (rally to 1.0870) and then possibly 0.9150 (1.0929) would then likely eventuate. Key to this potential price action however, will be the rash of key data out over the coming days. From Australia we have building approvals and the RBA rate statement this afternoon to digest. Then later in the week retail sales and GDP are set for release. From NZ we have tonight’s Fonterra dairy auction to draw focus.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
NZD/AUD 0.9272 0.9150 0.9300 0.9101 - 0.9290
AUD/NZD 1.0785 1.0753 1.0929 1.0764 - 1.0987

Friday 28th Nov 1:00pm(NZT)
The UK Pound has seen something of a resurgence against the New Zealand dollar this week, with the pair breaking, and largely holding back below the key 0.5000 (2.000) level. This keeps the focus on the downside and the potential for a move back toward 0.4900 (2.0408) over the coming week. At this point however, downside momentum is very slow any move back above 0.5015 (below 1.9940) would bring this outlook into question. Next week could prove interesting with a number of key UK releases scheduled. We have PMI’s from the manufacturing, service and construction sectors to digest along with the Bank of England rate meeting. In NZ the focus turns to the overseas trade index and Fonterra’s latest dairy auction.
The current interbank midrate is:    NZDGBP 0.4995    GBPNZD 2.0020

The interbank range this week has been:    NZDGBP 0.4960 - 0.5067    GBPNZD 1.9736 - 2.0163
Tuesday 25th Nov 3:30pm(NZT)
The New Zealand dollar has lost ground to the UK Pound over the past week, although we are yet to see a decisive break back below initial support around 0.5000 (resistance at 2.0000). That level was tested late last week, but managed to contain the downside and a bounce to 0.5067 (1.9736) ensued. That bounced was helped by news of a rate cut in China which lent support to the NZD temporarily, and the UKIP by-election win which put pressure on the GBP. In the past 24 hours however, we have once again traded down to support at 0.5000 (resistance at 2.0000) and I expect this level to come under increasing pressure, with the risks skewed toward a break lower. Still to come this week from NZ we have the trade balance, building consents and business confidence numbers. While from the UK we have the BOE Inflation Report Hearings, the second estimate of GDP, CBI realized sales and the Nationwide House Price Index.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
NZD/GBP 0.5005 0.4900 0.5100 0.4993 - 0.5096
GBP/NZD 1.9980 1.9608 2.0408 1.9625 - 2.0029

Friday 21st Nov 1:30pm(NZT)
It seems the New Zealand dollar’s recent run of strength against the UK Pound may have come to an end. The pair made it just shy of 0.5100 (1.9610) early in the week, helped by solid NZ retail sales numbers. The turnaround was cemented after Fonterra’s latest dairy auction showed a further decline in dairy prices. The UK Pound itself has gained some support from the BOE minutes that were less ‘dovish’ than many expected, as well as from better than forecast inflation and retail sales data. So far the pullback has found support around the 0.5000 (resistance at 2.0000) level, although I expect that to eventually give way and broader decline toward 0.4900 (rally to 2.0410) to unfold. Next week from NZ we have inflation expectations, the trade balance, building consents and business confidence data to digest. While from the UK we have the second estimate of GDP, business investment and CBI realized sales to draw focus.
The current interbank midrate is:    NZDGBP 0.5010    GBPNZD 1.9960

The interbank range this week has been:    NZDGBP 0.4993 - 0.5096    GBPNZD 1.9625 - 2.0029
Tuesday 18th Nov 3:00pm(NZT)
This pair has continued its recent march higher and now trades up over 0.5050 (below 1.9800). Weakness in the UK pound in the wake of last Wednesday's BOE inflation report, has been relentless and this has combined with much better than forecast retail sales number from New Zealand to the break above 0.5050 (below 1.9800) in the early stages of this week. The next level of resistance comes in around 0.5100 (support 1.9610) and I expect that to cap the NZD gains for now. Selling ahead of that level is recommended for an eventual pull back toward, and possibly back under, 0.5000 above 2.0000). In NZ the focus now turns to Fonterra’s dairy auction tonight which will be followed by producer prices data on Thursday. While from the UK we have the BOE minutes and retail sales data to digest.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
NZD/GBP 0.5070 0.4900 0.5100 0.4871 - 0.5074
GBP/NZD 1.9724 1.9608 2.0408 1.9708 - 2.0531

Friday 14th Nov 1:30pm(NZT)
The past week has seen a very strong rally from this pair driven on two fronts. Firstly we have seen some relative New Zealand dollar strength, perhaps driven by short (sold) positions squaring up. But more importantly we have seen the UK Pound come under some intense selling pressure in the wake of the Bank of England’s inflation report. With the bank slashing inflation forecasts there is now little reason for them to hike rates until late next year and this has weighed on the GBP. In the past 24 hours the cross has managed to sustain a break above the psychological resistance level of 0.5000 (support at 2.0000). There are indications that NZD upside momentum is waning, although this doesn’t rule out the possibility of one last push higher toward 0.5050 (1.9802) or maybe even 0.5100 (1.9608) at the extreme. For those looking to purchase GBP’s this move provides a great opportunity as the cross will likely moderate back below 0.5000 (over 2.0000) over the coming weeks. Next week from NZ we have retail sales, producer prices, and the latest Fonterra dairy auction to digest. While from the UK next week we get the latest reading of inflation along with the BOE minutes and retails sales data.
The current interbank midrate is:    NZDGBP 0.5015    GBPNZD 1.9940

The interbank range this week has been:    NZDGBP 0.4841 - 0.5031    GBPNZD 1.9877 - 2.0657
Tuesday 11th Nov 2:00pm(NZT)
Although the New Zealand dollar saw some periods of increased demand last week, the overriding trend was one of depreciation against the UK Pound. The pair traded down toward 0.4800 (up toward 2.0833) in the later stages of the week before staging a significant recovery. The NZD then managed to outperform the GBP in the wake of Friday night’s US employment data and this helped the pair trade up over minor resistance around 0.4900 (support around 2.0408). This leaves the near term outlook a little confused and further NZ dollar gains cannot be ruled out. Selling NZ dollars into any periods of strength toward the key 0.5000 (2.0000) level is recommended as the NZD should eventually turn back down. The RBNZ’s Financial Stability Report will draw focus tomorrow, as will comments from Governor Wheeler when he testifies in front of a parliamentary committee. While from the UK this week we have claimant count change (unemployment claims) and average cash earnings data to digest ahead of the BOE’s inflation report on Wednesday.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
NZD/GBP 0.4892 0.4750 0.5000 0.4810 - 0.4919
GBP/NZD 2.0442 2.0000 2.1053 2.0330 - 2.0789

Friday 7th Nov 1:30pm(NZT)
Since trading to a peak of just over 0.5000 (under 2.0000) back in the middle of October, price action in this pair has been characterised by a series of lower NZD highs and lower NZD lows. Although this downtrend has been somewhat choppy, it has been following a very consistent path and there is currently little to suggest it has run its course. Key trend resistance now comes in around 0.4900 (support at 2.0408) and as long as the market holds below there the cross looks likely to remain on target for another test of 0.4750 (up to 2.1053). Periods of NZD outperformance were seen this week in the wake of strong NZ employment data, and then again after soft UK construction and service sector PMI’s, but the broader NZD downtrend has remain intact. Tonight’s key US employment data could add some volatility and next week the focus in NZ turns to the RBNZ’s financial stability report and the Business NZ manufacturing index. While from the UK get average cash earnings, the claimant count change, the Bank of England inflation report and a speech from Governor Carney.
The current interbank midrate is:    NZDGBP 0.4855    GBPNZD 2.0597

The interbank range this week has been:    NZDGBP 0.4810 - 0.4926    GBPNZD 2.0301 - 2.0789
Tuesday 4th Nov 2:30pm(NZT)
The New Zealand dollar has underperformed the UK Pound the past week and as such the cross has seen pressure trading down to 0.4823 (2.0734) last night. Weakness in the local currency was seen on the back of last Thursday’s RBNZ statement as the central bank struck a more ‘neutral’ tone. Recent soft building consents data also hasn’t helped the NZD, while from the UK last night we saw better than expected manufacturing PMI data which boosted the GBP. The pair looks like it will try and grind its way back down to key support at 0.4750 (resistance 2.1053), although I expect that to provide a formidable barrier to further NZD weakness. Buying ahead of there is still recommended for those looking to transfer GBP back into NZD. From New Zealand this week we have employment data and the latest dairy auction to digest, while from the UK there are also a number of key releases. Over the coming days we get constructing and service sector PMI’s along with manufacturing production data and the Bank of England monetary policy meeting.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
NZD/GBP 0.4837 0.4750 0.4900 0.4823 - 0.4939
GBP/NZD 2.0667 2.0408 2.1053 2.0246 - 2.0733

Thursday 30th Oct 3:30PM (NZT)
For much of the week the New Zealand dollar saw grinding appreciation against the UK Pound with a high of 0.4939 (low of 2.0247) trading just last night. Things changed rapidly early this morning however, in the wake of the Fed rate statement. As the USD rallied strongly across the board the NZD was the dramatic underperformer, and as such the cross to the GBP fell sharply. The NZD downside price action continued a couple of hours later after the RBNZ released their rate statement that has largely confirmed the markets view that the NZ central bank will now be on hold until late next year. So far the pair has traded to a low of 0.4858 (high of 2.0585) and all the risks remain skewed to further NZD weakness in the near term. Key support around 0.4750 (resistance around 2.1053) could well be tested over the coming days. That level should continue to put a floor under the cross for the time being and buying ahead of there is recommended for those looking to sell GBP and buy NZD. Next week from NZ we have another global dairy auction from Fonterra, along with the latest employment numbers. While from the UK we have manufacturing, construction and service PMI’s set for release along with the Bank of England (BOE) rate meeting.
The current interbank midrate is:    NZDGBP 0.4877    GBPNZD 2.0504

The interbank range this week has been:    NZDGBP 0.4858 - 0.4939    GBPNZD 2.0246 - 2.0586
Tuesday 28th Oct 2:30pm(NZT)
The only significant price action in this pair last week came in the wake of Thursday’s softer than expected NZ inflation data. That drove the cross down from levels above 0.4940 (2.0245) to a low of 0.4871 (high of 2.0530). Since then we have seen mostly sideways action with 0.49002.0410) capping any periods of NZ dollar strength. This keeps the focus on the NZD downside with nothing in the way of key support until 0.4750 (2.1050). However, we do have the RBNZ rate statement on Thursday morning and this will provide the main risk event on the week. Also out of NZ over the coming days we have business confidence and building consents, while from the UK net lending to individuals, mortgage approvals and the house price index will draw attention.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
NZD/GBP 0.4894 0.4750 0.4900 0.4871 - 0.4977
GBP/NZD 2.0433 2.0408 2.1053 2.0091 - 2.0530

Thursday 23th Oct 3:30PM (NZT)
The New Zealand dollar was trading up at the 0.5000 resistance level (2.0000 support level) to the UK pound this time last week. However, since then we have seen a significant pull back from the NZ dollar. The initial move came on the back of a fall in UK unemployment which lent support to the GBP. This saw the pair back down to just above 0.4920 (just under 2.0325). In the last 24 hours we have seen the NZD dramatically underperform thanks in large part to weaker than expected inflation data. This is forcing a rethink of the timing for the next rate hike from the RBNZ and that is pressuring the local currency. The pair has traded just under 0.4900 (above 2.0408) in the past couple of hours. Key to whether this move continues toward 0.4800 (2.0833), or not, will be UK data tonight in the form of retail sales, and tomorrow in the form of GDP. There is plenty of room for the UK Pound to react positively should these data releases come in at, or above expectation. Next week from NZ we have business confidence, building permits and the RBNZ rate statement to digest. While from the UK we have mostly second tier data to digest with CBI realized sales, the Nationwide house price index and net lending to individuals the main focus.
The current interbank midrate is:    NZDGBP 0.4890    GBPNZD 2.0450

The interbank range this week has been:    NZDGBP 0.4884 - 0.5004    GBPNZD 1.9982 - 2.0476
Monday 20th Oct 3:30PM (NZT)
For much of last week the UK Pound saw pressure from the New Zealand dollar which was one of the best performing currencies during the heightened market volatility. The GBP itself was weighed on by much softer than forecast inflation data and increased concerns over growth in the Eurozone. Toward the end of the week however, the GBP found some support from a further decline in the level of UK unemployment. This week sees plenty of top tier economic releases from the UK starting with the BOE minutes on Wednesday. This will be followed by retail sales and GDP later in the week. From NZ we have inflation data and the trade balance to draw focus. Selling into strength is recommended with the outlook for a drift down towards minor support around 0.4900 (resistance around 2.0408) over the coming days.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
NZD/GBP 0.4940 0.4750 0.5000 0.4875 - 0.5004
GBP/NZD 2.0243 2.0000 2.1053 1.9982 - 2.0513

Friday 17th Oct 2:30PM (NZT)
The New Zealand dollar has made solid gains against the UK Pound this week driven on two fronts. Firstly we have seen some weaker than expected data from the UK, most notably that of inflation. These have pressured the GBP for much of the week. But the NZD itself was a strong performer on Wednesday night during a period of heightened financial market volatility. This caused the cross to jump higher trading up to key resistance around 0.5000 (support at 2.0000). That level contained the NZD topside and in the past 48 hours we have seen a significant correction. A move back below 0.4900 (above 2.0400) seems likely over the coming days and selling NZ dollars into any periods of strength toward 0.4950 (2.0200) is recommended for those looking to purchase GBP’s. Next week in New Zealand the focus turns to inflation data and the trade balance. While from the UK we have the BOE minutes to digest along with retail sales and GDP data.
The current interbank midrate is:    NZDGBP 0.4940    GBPNZD 2.0243

The interbank range this week has been:    NZDGBP 0.4845 - 0.5004    GBPNZD 1.9982 - 2.0640
Tuesday 14th Oct 2:30PM (NZT)
The New Zealand dollar is once again testing levels just over 0.4900 (under 2.0408) to the UK Pound after being rejected from there last week. There is plenty of resistance just above 0.4900 (support under 2.0408) and this should prove tough to overcome. If we do get a NZ dollar break higher, a test to the psychological 0.5000 (2.0000) level could eventuate, but I would expect that to contain any potential strength. The pair has been driven up here by some relative weakness in the UK pound thanks to some slightly softer data releases recently and comments from Governor Carney that don’t suggest he’s in a hurry to raise rates. This week sees the release of some key data for the UK. Tonight we get the latest reading of inflation, and tomorrow we have employment numbers to digest. These two releases combined with the latest dairy auction from Fonterra on Wednesday night are likely to dictate near term direction for the pair.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
NZD/GBP 0.4890 0.4750 0.4900 0.4845 - 0.4919
GBP/NZD 2.0450 2.0408 2.1053 2.0331 - 2.0640

Friday 10th Oct 2:30PM (NZT)
The past week has seen mostly sideways action for this pair around the 0.4870 (2.0534) level. Yesterday morning however, the New Zealand dollar did manage to outperform the UK Pound in the wake of the Fed minutes release. That relative outperformance saw the pair briefly trade up through resistance around 0.4900 (support around 2.0408), although overnight the cross has moderated back to a more comfortable level. Data from New Zealand this week has had little impact while in the UK the slightly softer outlook for the manufacturing sector has seen the GBP struggle to find fresh buyers. Selling into strength above 0.4900 (buying weakness below 2.0408) is recommend with the pair eventually expected to trade back down to support at 0.4750 (resistance at 2.1053). That could however be some weeks away as further consolidation seem likely around current levels. Next week is another quiet one for NZ data with just the business NZ manufacturing index and another Global Dairy Trade auction from Fonterra set for release. While from the UK we have key inflation and employment data to digest
The current interbank midrate is:    NZDGBP 0.4875    GBPNZD 2.0513

The interbank range this week has been:    NZDGBP 0.4835 - 0.4919    GBPNZD 2.0331 - 2.0681
Tuesday 7th Oct 2:30PM (NZT)
After trading to the medium term target of 0.4750 (2.1053) in the early stages of last week, this pair has seen something of a recovery helped by a short squeeze in the New Zealand dollar last Thursday. For the time being resistance around 0.4900 (support around 2.0408) has capped the NZD topside and I expect this to continue to provide a tough barrier for further gains. If we do get a break above 0.4900 (below 2.0408) then a move up to key resistance at 0.5000 (2.000) is possible. However, that is not the favoured scenario. More likely is a further period of consolidation over the coming weeks between 0.4750 and 0.4900 (2.1053 and 2.0408). There is little out from New Zealand this week to drive prices so attention will turn to the UK where we get manufacturing production data and the BOE credit conditions survey tonight, along with the BOE rate meeting on Thursday.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
NZD/GBP 0.4870 0.4750 0.4900 0.4773 - 0.4901
GBP/NZD 2.0534 2.0408 2.1053 2.0404 - 2.0951

Friday 3rd Oct 3:30PM (NZT)
The week started off with a dramatic fall in the value of the New Zealand dollar thanks to the revelation that the RBNZ had intervened by selling currency in August. That caused this pair to trade right down to key support at 0.4750 (resistance at 2.1053). Since then however we have seen a significant recovery. Data from the UK has, for the most part, come in on the soft side this week and this has failed to ignite further buying of UK Pounds. Add to this a market that was very short (sold) New Zealand dollars, and conditions were ripe for a classic short squeeze. That is exactly what happened yesterday and it drove the pair from 0.4800 all the way up to 0.4900 (2.0833 to 2.0408). Further gains are possible, however I suspect levels around 0.4900 (2.0408) will most probably contain this period of strength. We may well now see a period of consolidation with trade ranging between 0.4750 and 0.4900 (2.1053 and 2.0408) over the coming weeks. One thing is for certain, volatility has dramatically increased recently and this is likely to continue in the months ahead. Leaving orders at targeted levels is a good option in markets like these to try and take advantage the increased ranges. Next week from the UK we have the Bank of England rate meeting, manufacturing production, Halifax house price index, the trade balance and the BOE credit conditions survey. While from NZ the focus turns to the quarterly NZIER business confidence reading on Tuesday.
The current interbank midrate is:    NZDGBP 0.4890    GBPNZD 2.0450

The interbank range this week has been:    NZDGBP 0.4751 - 0.4901    GBPNZD 2.0404 - 2.1049
Tuesday 30th Sept 12:00PM (NZT)
For a while now I have suspected this pair wanted to target key support around 0.4750 (resistance around 2.1053). I did not expect it to happen so quickly. The New Zealand dollar has been under all sorts of pressure this week thanks in large part to the Reserve Bank of New Zealand. Their two releases over the past few days have caused dramatic selling of the local currency and this has driven the pair to its low so far of 0.4751 (high so far of 2.1049). With that target reached so quickly it would be reasonable to assume a period of consolidation will be seen between the parameters of 0.4750 and 0.4900 (2.1053 and 2.0408). The longer term risks are however still to the downside and selling into any period of strength is recommend for those looking to purchase UK Pounds. From NZ this week we have the latest Fonterra dairy auction to draw focus. While from the UK this week we have PMI’s from the manufacturing, service and construction sectors to digest.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
NZD/GBP 0.4785 0.4750 0.4900 0.4751 - 0.4981
GBP/NZD 2.0899 2.0408 2.1053 2.0077 - 2.1049

Friday 26th Sept 3:30PM (NZT)
The New Zealand dollar started this week just above 0.5000 (below 2.0000) to the UK Pound, helped by a small amount of optimism after the NZ general election result. However, those were the highs and since then it has largely been one way traffic for the pair. Fonterra’s downward revision to its forecasted pay-out weight on the NZD, but the real damage was done by the RBNZ when they released a statement on the currency yesterday. To be fair, “unjustified” and “unsustainable” are words the central bank has used before to describe the level of the currency, but yesterday’s release went further suggesting these are key considerations in deciding whether or not to intervene. That veiled threat saw the NZD smash down through recent lows to the GBP at 0.4906 (highs at 2.0383) and the pressure continued in the offshore trading session. The target is now firmly on a test of major support around 0.4750 (resistance around 2.1053). The UK Pound itself has continued to see buyers come back into the market now the Scottish independence vote is out of the way. If key data next week in the form of manufacturing, construction and service sector PMI’s come in on the strong side, further appreciation is likely. From NZ next week we have building consents and business confidence data to digest.
The current interbank midrate is:    NZDGBP 0.4855    GBPNZD 2.0597

The interbank range this week has been:    NZDGBP 0.4854 - 0.5007    GBPNZD 1.9973 - 2.0602
Tuesday 23rd Sept 4:00PM (NZT)
Price action in this pair over the past week has been dominated by movements in the value of the UK Pound in the lead up to, and during, the Scottish independence referendum. When results started to come in on Friday the GBP surged in value as it looked increasingly likely that Scotland would not vote to go their own way. This drove the cross to the NZD down to a low of 0.4918 (high of 2.0333). But this move was short lived and by the time the result was confirmed the GBP had given back much of its gains. A lot of this price action is due to speculative short term positions that were betting on a ‘no’ result and they quickly took profit as the GBP strengthened. Now that those positions will have largely been cleared out, the ‘real money’ flows should start to come back into the GBP. I expect these flows to cause grinding appreciation in the value of the GBP over the coming months as we get closer and closer to the first rate hike in the UK. Resistance around 0.5000 (support around 2.0000) looks like providing decent barrier on the topside and selling ahead of that level is recommended for those looking to purchase GBP’s. Those looking to sell GBP’s and purchase NZD’s should target the 0.4900 (2.0408) level in the near term. Further out a move toward 0.4750 (2.1053) is likely, but that could be a few months away yet. From NZ this week we just have the trade balance data on Wednesday, while from the UK we have mortgage approvals, public sector net borrowing, the house price index and CBI realized sales all set for release.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
NZD/GBP 0.4950 0.4800 0.5000 0.4918 - 0.5050
GBP/NZD 2.0202 2.0000 2.0833 1.9801 - 2.0335

Friday 19th Sept 2:00PM (NZT)
In an interesting turn of events this pair has broken down below key support around the 0.5000 level (resistance at 2.0000) ahead of the Scottish referendum outcome. A range of polls over the past week have almost uniformly suggested that the Scots will vote to stay as part of the UK, if only by a small margin. This has helped the GBP recover a long way after bout of selling seen a couple of weeks ago. There is obviously still some real risk around this event with the outcome announced early this evening Australasian time, but assuming we don’t get any big surprises, the GBP is likely to continue to outperform the NZD. A test of 0.4900 (resistance 2.0400) could well be on the cards in the near term. Next week’s economic calendar looks a little light from the UK with just mortgage approvals, public sector net borrowing, the Nationwide house price index and CBI realized sales set for release. While from New Zealand we have consumer sentiment and the trade balance to draw focus.
The current interbank midrate is:    NZDGBP 0.4960    GBPNZD 2.0161

The interbank range this week has been:    NZDGBP 0.4948 - 0.5050    GBPNZD 1.9801 - 2.0211
Tuesday 16th Sept 3:00PM (NZT)
The past week has seen a sharp pullback in this pair from the 0.5160 resistance area (1.9380 support area) that was tested early last week as the GBP came under heavy selling pressure. That selling pressure was on the back of a poll suggesting a slight majority of Scottish were in favour of independence. Since then however, the majority of polls have suggested the opposite with a 2-3% margin in favour of staying as part of the UK. The referendum on Thursday is still a major risk event with the margin of error on all these polls bigger than the gap between the two camps. In terms of the NZD side of the equation, we have another dairy auction to digest tonight, which will be followed by current account and GDP data over the coming days. For the time being support around 0.5000 (resistance around 2.0000) looks set to contain the downside in the pair, but that could come under pressure if the UK makes it through the referendum unscathed. However, a vote for independence will likely see levels over 0.5200 (under 1.9231) trading in a very short time span.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
NZD/GBP 0.5042 0.5000 0.5200 0.5000 - 0.5143
GBP/NZD 1.9833 1.9445 2.0000 1.9445 - 2.0000

Friday 12th Sept 2:00PM (NZT)
It certainly seems this upcoming Scottish independence referendum has added significant volatility to the market. In a little over a week this pair has traded from 0.5030 (1.9880) up to 0.5160 (1.9380) and then all the way back again. Granted, the move back down in the last couple of days has been aided by some strong words from the RBNZ with regards to the level of the local currency, but more than anything it has been driven by swings in the value of the GBP. Last weekend’s surprising poll that showed small margin in favour of Scottish independence (a ‘yes’ vote), drove the pair up to 0.5163 (down to 1.9670), but since then a number of subsequent polls has suggested no change is likely and as such the GBP has again found buyers. I’m not even going to try and predict with the polls will say between now and Sept 18, or what the outcome of the referendum will be. Suffice to say it will be significant for the GBP either way. A “no” vote should see the GBP gain ground and will likely drive the cross to the NZD back below 0.5000 (above 2.0000). Hold onto your hats if we get a “yes” vote as the GBP could lose anywhere between 5% and 10% of its value in a very short time frame. Ahead of that vote next Thursday we get UK inflation, employment and retail sales data, along with Bank of England (BOE) rate meeting.
The current interbank midrate is:    NZDGBP 0.5030    GBPNZD 1.9881

The interbank range this week has been:    NZDGBP 0.5028 - 0.5163    GBPNZD 1.9368 - 1.9889
Tuesday 9th Sept 2:00PM (NZT)
The New Zealand dollar has made good gains against the UK Pound over the past week. This broad market pressure on the GBP is all thanks to nervousness around the upcoming Scottish independence referendum. The GBP has been struggling in the lead up to that vote and the most recent poll released on the weekend caught many by surprise. A ‘yes’ vote for independence would be a big negative for the GBP and with that latest poll showing a slim majority in favour of independence, the GBP was sold heavily in early morning trade yesterday. So far the pair has traded to a high of 0.5163 (low of 1.9369) and all the risks remain toward further GBP weakness in the lead up to September 18th. Economic data in the UK will now take a back foot to poll results that have the potential to cause some real volatility in the value of the GBP. From NZ this week we also have the RBNZ Monetary Policy Statement to digest, which is set for release on Thursday morning. If initial resistance around 0.5160 (support around 1.9380) is overcome, the pair could easily trade up to 0.5230 (down to 1.9120).
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
NZD/GBP 0.5140 0.5000 0.5230 0.5026 - 0.5163
GBP/NZD 1.9455 1.9120 2.0000 1.9368 - 1.9896

Friday 5th Sept 2:30PM (NZT)
The New Zealand dollar has been far from a strong performing currency this week, it has however managed to outperform the UK Pound. The GBP has come under real pressure on the back of uncertainty about the upcoming Scottish independence referendum and a dramatic fall in the EUR last night didn’t help either. Economic data from the UK has actually been positive, but it looks the like the market is going to ignore that until after the Sept 18 vote. So although the NZD has seen pressure this week on the back of a further decline in dairy prices, it has still managed to gain ground on the GBP. There is plenty of resistance around 0.5100 (support around 1.9608) which should cap the NZD in the near term. But any chance of a return to 0.5000 (2.0000) or below will have to wait for GBP strength that should come after the referendum, assuming the Scots vote to stay as part of the UK. We have the RBNZ rate meeting next week to draw focus, while from the UK we get manufacturing production data, and the inflation report hearings, and a speech from Governor Carney.
The current interbank midrate is:    NZDGBP 0.5080    GBPNZD 1.9685

The interbank range this week has been:    NZDGBP 0.5026 - 0.5092    GBPNZD 1.9637 - 1.9896
Tuesday 2nd Sept 2:00PM (NZT)
The past week has largely been dominated by sideways price action for this pair around the 0.5050 (1.9802) level. This week however, could easily some direction return to the market with a number of key releases from both countries. The New Zealand dollar will pay particular attention to tonight’s dairy auction to see if prices continue to stabilize after declining more than 40% since February. The focus then turns to the UK with construction and service PMI’s followed by the Bank of England rate meeting. Support for the pair continues to be seen around the 0.5000 (resistance 2.0000) level, while any potential NZD strength should be capped around 0.5100 (1.9608).
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
NZD/GBP 0.5046 0.5000 0.5200 0.5017 - 0.5064
GBP/NZD 1.9818 1.9231 2.0000 1.9746 - 1.9932

Friday 29th Aug 1:30PM (NZT)
A sharp bout of New Zealand dollar weakness in early Monday morning trade saw this pair move from 0.5070 (1.9725) to eventually trade just below 0.5020 (above 1.9920). There was no particular fundamental news to drive the NZD weakness and thin liquidity at that time of the week certainly played its part. The UK Pound itself has struggled to find buyers lately and this may well continue in the lead up to the Scottish independence referendum on Sep 18th. We also have the NZ general election on September 20th which is starting to look a little closer than many would have expected a few weeks ago. As such the cross could well spend the next three weeks ranging between 0.5000 and 0.5100 (1.96000 - 2.0000)as both the NZD and GBP struggle to find any real direction ahead of those events. Next week from NZ we only have the overseas trade index to digest, while from the UK we get manufacturing, construction and service PMI’s along with the BOE rate meeting.
The current interbank midrate is:    NZDGBP 0.5045    GBPNZD 1.9822

The interbank range this week has been:    NZDGBP 0.5017 - 0.5090    GBPNZD 1.9646 - 1.9932
Tuesday 26th Aug 1:30PM (NZT)
Largely disappointing data from the UK last week was countered to a small degree by the BOE minutes that showed two members of the MPC voted for a rate hike. This helped the UK Pound outperform the New Zealand dollar that has been under intense pressure since the market opened here on Monday morning. Another test of the 0.5000 (2.0000) level looks likely in the near term with the New Zealand dollar downside still firmly in focus. Reaction at that level will be key with a sustained break below 0.5000 (above 2.0000) opening the way for a test of 0.4900 (2.0408) This week from the UK we  have mostly second tier data set for release in the form of mortgage approvals, CBI realized sales, the house price index and preliminary business investment. From NZ we just have building consents and business confidence data to digest over the coming days.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
NZD/GBP 0.5025 0.4900 0.5100 0.5030 - 0.5090
GBP/NZD 1.9900 1.9608 2.0408 1.9646 - 1.9881

Friday 22nd Aug 2:00PM (NZT)
Both the New Zealand dollar and the UK Pound have seen periods of pressure this week and as such the cross has swung around between 0.5090 and 0.5030 (1.9646 and 1.9881). The longer term bias remains to for NZ dollar underperformance, and I expect to see another test below 0.5000 (2.0000) over the coming weeks. UK data this week was a little disappointing, but the BOE minutes did see two members of the MPC vote for an immediate rate hike. As the UK economy continues to improve, their position will strengthen and others will join them. This should support the GBP going forward. Selling on any strength toward 0.5100 (buying weakness toward 1.9608) is there for recommended. There is plenty of potential for action this weekend with central bankers’ symposium at Jackson Hole in the US. Next week from New Zealand we have the trade balance, building consents, and business confidence data to draw focus. While from the UK we get mortgage approvals, CBI realized sales, and preliminary business investment.
The current interbank midrate is:    NZDGBP 0.5063    GBPNZD 1.9751

The interbank range this week has been:    NZDGBP 0.5036 - 0.5092    GBPNZD 1.9637 - 1.9857
Tuesday 19th Aug 4:30PM (NZT)
Support around 0.5000 (resistance around 2.0000) held again on a NZ dollar downside attempt early last week and we saw a sharp recovery from that level after the release of the Bank of England Inflation report. Governor Carney’s focus in that report on the lack of wage growth was taken as a sign that the BOE are in no hurry to raise rate. This saw the UK Pound come under heavy selling pressure and as such the cross to the NZD quickly jumped to 0.5100 (1.9608). But over the weekend a press article has Carney suggesting the Bank doesn’t need to wait to see wage growth before hiking and this has caused a correction with the GBP finding good support. Add to that today’s soft NZ Producer Prices data and the cross is now focused back on the NZD downside trading around 0.5040 (1.9841). We can expect plenty more volatility over the coming days with a number of releases that could influence. Tonight’s dairy auction will be important for the NZD, while from the UK this week we get inflation, the BOE minutes and retail sales data. Over the long term time horizon I expect an eventual break below 0.5000 (above 2.0000) and a move towards 0.4750 (2.1053), but whether we see the start of that this week will largely be data dependant.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
NZD/GBP 0.5047 0.5000 0.5200 0.5009 - 0.5100
GBP/NZD 1.9814 1.9231 2.0000 1.9609 - 1.9964

Friday 15th Aug 3:55PM (NZT)
It has been an interesting period for this pair. The recent NZD vulnerability initially had the pair right down on the NZD support level of .5000 (GBPNZD 2.0000), and all that was required was some outright GBP strength, to push it from this very well established .5000 - .5200 (1.9230 - 2.0000) range. However, the opposite was forthcoming in the form of the BOE inflation report, that led to comments from Governor Carney. The ensuing bout of GBP weakness, has put the pair back into very neutral territory. For those with the luxury of time, loading limit orders towards the extremities of this inter bank market range, will likely pay off in the coming week or so. With the exception of the global dairy trade auction results, the UK economic news provides the focus next week.
The current interbank midrate is:    NZDGBP .5085    GBPNZD 1.9666

The interbank range this week has been:    NZDGBP .5009 - .5099    GBPNZD 1.9610 - 1.9964
Tuesday 12th Aug 2:00PM (NZT)
Declines in the New Zealand dollar early last week finally saw this pair trade back below the 0.5000 level (above 2.0000), albeit briefly. Further falls in dairy prices did the damage to the NZD, however the UK Pound has also been under pressure recently as data in the UK has come off the boil to a degree. This has no doubt frustrated many who have been waiting to sell GBP’s and buy NZD’s, as dips in the NZ dollar have been short lived and continued downside momentum has been lacking. I expect this environment to continue in the near term and as such buying dips toward 0.5000 (selling up to 2.0000) is still recommended. Looking further out, say couple of months, a move toward 0.4900 (2.0408) is a possibility but I wouldn't get excited about NZD losses beyond there at this stage. Later this week from New Zealand we get the Business NZ manufacturing index along with retail sales. While from the UK we have the BOE inflation report and the second estimate of GDP.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
NZD/GBP 0.5035 0.5000 0.5200 0.4993 - 0.5062
GBP/NZD 1.9861 1.9231 2.0000 1.9755 - 2.0029

Friday 8th Aug 2:30PM (NZT)
This pair started the week sitting just below minor resistance at 0.5060 (support 1.9763). Trading was pretty quiet leading into Tuesday night’s Global Dairy Trade auction, but the 8.4% fall in prices received for New Zealand’s biggest export immediately saw the local currency come under pressure. A further round of selling in the wake of softer than forecast NZ employment data saw the pair trade to its 0.4993 low (2.0028 high). The UK has also seen some mixed data recently and this has helped the NZD recover some of the lost ground. However, while 0.5060 (1.9763) continues to cap the NZD recovery, we are likely to see further tests of support around the 0.5000 (2.0000) level. Next week from NZ we have retail sales and the Business NZ manufacturing index. While from the UK we get the BOE inflation report, employment data and the second estimate of GDP.
The current interbank midrate is:    NZDGBP 0.5029    GBPNZD 1.9884

The interbank range this week has been:    NZDGBP 0.4993 - 0.5065    GBPNZD 1.9743 - 2.0029
Tuesday 5th Aug 1:30PM (NZT)
Some relative weakness in the UK Pound has seen this pair recover nicely off support around 0.5000 (resistance around 2.0000) over the past week. The pair has traded right up to resistance at 0.5060 (support at 1.9763), but has so far has failed to overcome that level. GBP weakness was driven by a bigger than expected decline in manufacturing PMI on Friday, although last night’s construction PMI made for better reading. There are a number of key releases over the rest of this week that could easily drive prices. From the UK tonight we get the services PMI figure and this will be followed on Thursday by the Bank of England rate meeting. From New Zealand tomorrow we have employment data to digest. While 0.5060 (1.9763) caps the NZD topside, the risks are the pair will turn back down and have another crack at 0.5000 (2.0000). However, a move above 0.5060 (below 1.9763) would open the way for gains back toward 0.5100 (1.9608).
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
NZD/GBP 0.5050 0.5000 0.5200 0.5008 - 0.5065
GBP/NZD 1.9802 1.9231 2.0000 1.9790 - 1.9967

Friday 1st Aug 1:50PM (NZT)
There has been little in the way of market moving data from either New Zealand or the UK this week and as such this pair has remained largely range bound. A couple of investigations toward the key 0.5000 (2.0000) level have both run into NZ dollar buyers and resulted in a recovery back toward 0.5040 (1.9845). Tonight from the UK we do get some data that could influence prices with manufacturing PMI set for release. This will be followed next week with PMI’s from the construction and service sectors along with the BOE rate meeting and manufacturing production data. From NZ have employment data and the labour cost index to draw focus.
The current interbank midrate is:    NZDGBP 0.5035    GBPNZD 1.9861

The interbank range this week has been:    NZDGBP 0.5008 - 0.5053    GBPNZD 1.9790 - 1.9967
Tuesday 29th July 1:30PM (NZT)
Like many New Zealand dollar crosses this pair moved sharply lower in the wake of last week’s RBNZ rate statement. Strong words from the central bank re the level of the currency and a pause in the tightening cycle did the damage and although the losses have moderated, we have yet to see any significant bounce. Key resistance comes in at 0.5060 (support at 1.9763) and this level has capped the NZD topside since the pressure on the NZD started last week. With only building consents data out in NZ this week, the focus will turn to the UK where we get net lending to individuals, the Nationwide house price index and manufacturing PMI. There is plenty of support for the pair around the 0.5000 level (resistance around 2.000) and at this stage we will need to see some further UK Pound appreciation if we are to trade though this level. Strong UK data this week would certainly help that cause.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
NZD/GBP 0.5035 0.5000 0.5200 0.5022 - 0.5108
GBP/NZD 1.9861 1.9231 2.000 1.9575 - 1.9911

Friday 25th July 4:0PM (NZT)
The UK Pound has seen some pressure this week on the back of the BOE minutes and softer than forecast retails sales data. But this pressure is nothing compared to how the New Zealand dollar suffered in the wake of yesterday’s RBNZ rate statement. As such the weeks price action has been dominated by yesterday’s move that saw the pair collapse from 0.5100 (rally from 1.9608) to a low of 0.5029 (high of 1.9885). Strong words from the RBNZ about the value of the NZD along with the signal that they will now pause the tightening cycle did the damage to the local currency and it is yet to regain its composure. While resistance around 0.5060 caps the topside (1.9763 contains the downside) the target is a test of the psychologically important level of 0.5000 (2.000). Next week from NZ we only have building consents data, while in the UK the focus turns to house price data and manufacturing PMI.
The current interbank midrate is:    NZDGBP 0.5050    GBPNZD 1.9802

The interbank range this week has been:    NZDGBP 0.5029 - 0.5108    GBPNZD 1.9575 - 1.9884
Tuesday 22th July 2:30PM (NZT)
This pair saw a significant pull back from the 0.5160 (1.9380) level early last week. A number of factors lined up to drive the move including weak dairy prices, softer than expected NZ inflation and stronger than forecast UK inflation. So far the pair has traded to a low of 0.5062 (high of 1.9755) with the 0.5100 (1.9608) level capping any periods of strength since then. This keeps the focus on the down side for the time being with any move below 0.5060 (above 1.9763) opening the way for a test toward 0.5000 (2.0000). We do have the RBNZ rate meeting on Thursday morning and this event provides the main focus for the week. From the UK we have the BOE minutes, retail sales and GDP data to digest all of which could also influence.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
NZD/GBP 0.5085 0.5000 0.5200 0.5062 - 0.5160
GBP/NZD 1.9666 1.9231 2.0000 1.9381 - 1.9756

Friday 18th July 4:0PM (NZT)
If you have been sitting on UK Pounds waiting for an opportunity to convert them into New Zealand dollars, you will have to be pleased with this weeks price action. Resistance at 0.5160 (support at 1.9380) capped the topside early in the week and the sharp rejection from that level would suggest there is further downside to come. The NZD suffered at the hands of weaker dairy prices and softer than expected inflation, while in the UK inflation surprised on the strong side giving the GBP a boost. This pair could easily move down towards 0.5000 (2.0000) over the coming week or two, but first we need to negotiate next Wednesday’s RBNZ rate meeting. This event provides the main focus and will be a lot more interesting after this weeks data. If we get a near term bounce in the pair it should be limited to the 0.5100 (1.9608) level with the NZD downside still the main focus / risk. From the UK next week we have the BOE minutes along with retail sales and GDP to throw in the mix, but it’s likely changes in the value of the NZD will be the main driver.
The current interbank midrate is:    NZDGBP .5075    GBPNZD 1.9704

The interbank range this week has been:    NZDGBP .5052 - .5163    GBPNZD 1.9370 - 1.9756
Tuesday 15th July 1:05PM (NZT)
The past week has seen low volatility and a very gradual grind higher for the NZD in this pair. The UK Pound eventually succumbed to some slightly softer than expected data late last week and this caused the cross to drift up to resistance at 0.5160 (support at 1.9380). That level has capped the NZD gains for now and direction this week could well be dictated by a couple of key releases from NZ in the next 24 hours. Tonight we have another Global Dairy Trade Auction, and tomorrow we get NZ inflation data which certainly has the ability to influence expectations for next week’s RBNZ meeting. From the UK we also have inflation data tonight and this will be followed by employment numbers later in the week. The 0.5080 to 0.5160 (1.9380 to 1.9685) range remains in play for now, although we should have a much better idea of where the pair is headed by this time tomorrow.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
NZD/GBP 0.5158 0.5000 0.5200 0.5101 - 0.5163
GBP/NZD 1.9387 1.9231 2.0000 1.9370 - 1.9603

Friday 11th July 1:30PM (NZT)
The strong New Zealand dollar has managed to outperform the UK Pound this week but only to a small degree. The pair remains contained within the 0.5080 to 0.5160 (1.9685 to 1.9380) range that has been in play for much of the past month. Data from the UK this week has had little impact on the GBP with the currency shrugging off the few slightly weaker than expected readings that have hit the wires. The New Zealand dollar also took a pull back in business confidence in its stride and then received a boost from Fitch ratings agency who upgraded NZ’s outlook to positive from stable. I would expect to see 0.5160 (1.9380) continue to cap near term strength for the time being. It will be interesting to see over the course of the next week and a half if the market starts to question its expectation for another hike by the RBNZ on July 24th. With the NZD trading around all-time highs on a TWI basis the decision for the central bank may be a lot more finely balanced than many expect. If we do see doubts start to creep into the market this pair will quickly retreat back below 0.5100 (above 1.9608).
The current interbank midrate is:    NZDGBP 0.5143    GBPNZD 1.94444

The interbank range this week has been:    NZDGBP 0.5085 - 0.5152    GBPNZD 1.9411 - 1.9667
Tuesday 8th July 2:45PM (NZT)
This pair has remained relatively quiet over the past week. A slight downside bias was prominent last week with the cross trading to a low of 0.5085 (high of 1.9667). We did however see some healthy demand for New Zealand dollars last night which caused a bounce to 0.5120 (1.9531) although there was no real news flow to support the move. This morning’s QSBO release has seen that demand moderate and the pair has drifted back towards 0.5100 (1.9608).  UK manufacturing production data tonight will be watched and on Thursday we have the Bank of England rate meeting. No change is expected from the bank and data this week should continue to support the UK recovery. Any topside price action in the pair should be contained by minor resistance around 0.5160 (1.9380) over the course of this week. Dips however are proving to be somewhat limited and it looks like we need will need to see a bout of NZD weakness before 0.5000 (2.0000) trades again.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
NZD/GBP 0.5114 0.5000 0.5200 0.5085 - 0.5130
GBP/NZD 1.9554 1.9231 2.0000 1.9492 - 1.9667

Friday 4th July 12:30PM (NZT)
The past week has seen a decent correction lower for this pair from the 0.5160 (1.9380) level where it opened on Monday. Declining business confidence and dairy prices in New Zealand have contrasted with very supportive data from the UK to see the pair moderate back to the 0.5100 (1.9608) level. We did get as low as 0.5087 (as high as 1.9658) last night in the wake of US employment data, and further tests sub 0.5100 (over 0.19608) seem likely over the coming week. Looking further out a move back toward 0.5000 (2.0000) is still on the cards, however we will need to see a bout of NZD weakness for that to happen and on recent form that could be a way off. Expect 0.5160 (1.9380) to continue to cap any topside price action for now.
The current interbank midrate is:    NZDGBP 0.5100    GBPNZD 1.9608

The interbank range this week has been:    NZDGBP 0.5087 - 0.5163    GBPNZD 1.9367 - 1.9660
Tuesday 1st July 2:15PM (NZT)
This pairing remains stuck in very familiar territory, having traded a relatively small range over the last week. The NZD momentum waned yesterday following a further pullback in the NZ business confidence survey. From here the focus shifts to the UK data in the form of the manufacturing, construction and services data. These releases will be watched, but should be of limited impact. Expect the current rates to continue in the short term at least. At some stage it seems likely that the GBP will be able to push on to higher levels as the BOE interest rate hiking cycle nears, but further patience will likely be required for those looking to buy NZ dollars at materially lower levels.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
NZD/GBP .5125 .5000 .5200 .5102 - .5166
GBP/NZD 1.9512 1.9230 2.0000 1.9357 - 1.9600

Friday 27th June 2:30PM (NZT)
This week has seen a push lower in global interest rates and as a consequence, yield chasing investors have increased demand for the NZ dollar. This has seen the NZD outperform the GBP on the week, especially following the weak US final GDP numbers. The pair has been pushed up towards the upper NZD end of the continuing wider trading range that has been in place since February. Certainly with the NZD up towards the upper end of the range, current levels should prove to have offered great value buying of GBP with NZ dollars over time.
The current interbank midrate is:    NZDGBP .5150    GBPNZD 1.9417

The interbank range this week has been:    NZDGBP .5097 - .5166    GBPNZD 1.9357 - 1.9614
Tuesday 24th June 2:43PM (NZT)
This pair remains locked within the relatively contained trading band that has established itself over the last two weeks. It remains close towards the middle of the wider trading range that has been in place since the end of February. With both currencies subject to periods of increased demand, expect this range trading to persist in the short term at least. Patience should pay off for those looking lock in rates towards either end of the established range. Expect any price action to be driven by news from the UK this week. Especially watch for BOE Governor Carney’s comments later on today, and again on Thursday, as a policy of verbal gamesmanship seems to be order of the day.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
NZD/GBP .5118 .5000 .52000 .5097 - .5142
GBP/NZD 1.9539 1.9230 2.0000 1.9449 - 1.9620

Friday 13th June 2:00PM (NZT) - Update
This pair has seen a very contained trading range so far this week. The price action has been entrenched around the middle of the recent .5000 - .5200 (1.9230 - .2000) wider trading range.  Obviously there were brief periods of activity around the BOE minutes and NZ GDP, but the two currencies are similarly seeing latent demand on any periods of weakness. Expect this to continue in the near term at least, with any pullback below .5100 (above 1.9600) likely to see NZD buyers (GBP seller) emerge, and the opposite likely should the market get back up towards .5200 (down to 1.9230). Next week sees the UK news dominate in the absence of top tier data due for release in NZ.
The current interbank midrate is:    NZDGBP .5113    GBPNZD 1.9558

The interbank range this week has been:    NZDGBP .5097 - .5142    GBPNZD 1.9449 - 1.9620
Tuesday 17th June 3:43PM (NZT)
It has been a very interesting last week for this pair, with both currencies seeing periods of materially increased demand. Even with the periods of volatility, the pair continues to trade within a very familiar range. The NZD saw grinding appreciation into the RBNZ rate announcement, the subsequent NZD rally saw the extreme for the week set at .5164 (1.9363), before the comments from Carney and Osborne boosted the GBP back by more than a percent. Since then the pair has traded a tiny range. The UK inflation numbers later on today offer some focus ahead of tomorrow’s BOE policy announcement. With no change expected eyes will then turn to the NZ GDP number Thursday morning, ahead of the UK retail sales number later in the day. Expect the wider trading band to contain the price action.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
NZD/GBP .5106 .5000 .5200 .5054 - .5164
GBP/NZD 1.9585 1.9230 2.0000 1.9363 - 1.9785

Friday 13th June 2:00PM (NZT) - Update
This pair continues to trade within the increasingly familiar .5000- .5200 (1.9230 - 2.0000) range. After the pressure on the NZD towards the end of last week, this week saw the pair consolidate towards the lower NZD end of the range. However, ahead of the RBNZ meeting yesterday, the NZD saw increasing demand and this accelerated following the monetary policy statement. The NZD appreciation has been capped by the comments from BOE Gov. Carney and Exchequer Chancellor Osborne overnight. These comments have pushed the pair very much back towards the middle of the range at current levels of .5125 (1.9510). Expect this wider range to continue in the short term at least with both currencies seeing periods of increased demand. Next week in the UK the latest inflation numbers and BOE meeting minutes will offer focus, whilst the Q1 NZ GDP numbers on Thursday provide the NZ focus for the week. The range trading nature of this pair lends towards the pacing of limit orders for those with time on their side for transfers. .
The current interbank midrate is:    NZDGBP 0.5112    GBPNZD 1.9562

The interbank range this week has been:    NZDGBP 0.5046 - 0.5165    GBPNZD 1.9361 - 1.9817
Tuesday 10th June 1:00PM (NZT)
There has been little to get excited about in this pair over the past week. Some relative New Zealand dollar strength through the middle of last week saw something of a recovery in pair but it looks to have run out of steam around 0.5080 (1.9685). The cross has now turned back down and another test toward 0.5000 (2.0000) could well be on the cards. The big risk over the coming days comes in the form of the RBNZ monetary policy statement on Thursday. Near term direction will likely be dictated by whether or not the central bank signals a pause in the tightening cycle. Ahead of that decision we get UK employment data on Wednesday evening which should lend support to the GBP. The UK job market has been a strong performer throughout the economic downturn and with the economy now well on the recovery track there seems no reason to suspect a soft result.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
NZD/GBP 0.5059 0.5000 0.5200 0.5017 - 0.5083
GBP/NZD 1.9767 1.9231 2.0000 1.9672 - 1.9932

Friday 6th June 2:30PM (NZT) - Update
The New Zealand dollar continued to weaken in the first half of this week helped by another fall in dairy prices. This helped to drive the cross to the UK Pound down to its Wednesday night low of 0.5017 (high of 1.9932). Since then however, a bounce in the local currency has helped the pair recover and we now trade around 0.5050 (1.9802). Data from the UK has been largely supportive of the current economic recovery and there was little impact from last night’s BOE announcement. Next week we have the RBNZ monetary policy statement to spice things up and this will provide the major focus. From the UK we also get manufacturing and industrial production figures along with employment change data. For the time being the broad range of 0.5000 to 0.5200 (2.0000 to 1.9231)  is likely to dominate although looking further out, another move down toward 0.4900 (2.0408) is a distinct possibility over the coming month.
The current interbank midrate is:    NZDGBP 0.5051    GBPNZD 1.9798

The interbank range this week has been:    NZDGBP 0.5017 - 0.5088    GBPNZD 1.9652 - 1.9932
Tuesday 3rd June 6:30PM (NZT)
Weakness in the New Zealand dollar has finally seen this pair break below the minor support at 0.5060 (resistance at 1.9763) that had contained the downside on a number of occasions over the past month. There hasn’t been a lot of follow through selling at this stage, although I would expect the pair to grind its way toward 0.5000 (2.0000) over the coming week. A number of factors have weighed on the NZD including softer dairy prices, concerns about Chinese growth, and last week’s fall in business confidence. This week there is plenty of key data to come from the UK and some strong readings from construction and services PMI would certainly help drive the pair toward 0.5000 (2.0000). The Bank of England also meet this week although no change is expected to current policy settings.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
NZD/GBP 0.5052 0.5000 0.5200 0.5041 - 0.5098
GBP/NZD 1.9794 1.9231 2.0000 1.9614 - 1.9838

Friday 30th May 2:00PM (NZT) - Update
Both the New Zealand dollar and the UK Pound have been under some pressure this week. As a result this pair has traded in a tight range just above support at 0.5060 (resistance at 1.9763). The NZD has recently started to feel the weight of declining dairy prices and this week we also saw a significant fall in business confidence. The GBP has also struggled this week as weaker than expected results for mortgage approvals and CBI realized sales pressured the currency. The current tight range won't last and to my mind the risks are skewed to the NZD downside. The NZD has broken key support levels in the last few days against both the USD and the AUD, and this suggests that 0.5060 (up through 1.9760) will come under increasing pressure. If we do get a move through there the target will be the psychologically important 0.5000 (2.0000) level. There is little next week from NZ to digest, however from the UK we get a trifecta of PMI’s with the manufacturing, construction, and service sector index’s set for release. We also have the BOE rate meeting and house price data scheduled to hit the wires.
The current interbank midrate is:    NZDGBP 0.5076    GBPNZD 1.9701

The interbank range this week has been:    NZDGBP 0.5057 - 0.5098    GBPNZD 1.9614 - 1.9776
Tuesday 27th May 2:30PM (NZT)
Declines in the NZD stalled around the middle of last week and since then the cross had carved out a tight trading range around 0.5075 (1.9704). Data from the UK last week was for the most part supportive of the Pound, but we did see the currency come under some pressure after public sector net borrowing figures disappointed on Thursday evening. It was that data that largely halted the decline for the NZ dollar, and the tight range seen since then has been exasperated by the UK bank holiday yesterday. Minor support at 0.5060 (resistance at 1.9763) will need to be broken before the pair can again look to test the psychologically important 0.5000 level (2.0000). If the pair fails to break below 0.5060 (above 1.9763) over the coming days, we could well see a move back toward 0.5140 (1.9455) develop, further ingraining the current trading range. From NZ this week we have business confidence and building consents figures. While from the UK we get mortgage approvals tonight, CBI realized sales tomorrow, and consumer confidence on Friday.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
NZD/GBP 0.5082 0.5000 0.5200 0.5060 - 0.5135
GBP/NZD 1.9677 1.9231 2.0000 1.9474 - 1.9765

Thursday 22nd May 3:30PM (NZT) - Update
It seems to have been a long time coming, but this week a combination of factors have driven this pair back down below 0.5100 (above 1.9608). A major part of the move has been on the back of New Zealand dollar weakness which was driven lower by declining dairy prices and a soft AUD. But last night we also saw a material increase in demand for UK Pounds on the back of much better than expected retail sales, and a hint from the BOE that rates could go up earlier than expected. These factors caused the low of 0.5060 (high of 1.9763) to trade and we have only seen a small bounce since then. The pair will need to break below 0.5060, which was the same low set back on April 23rd, if there is any chance at testing the psychological level of 0.5000 (2.000). From the UK next week we only have mortgage approvals, the house price index, and CBI realized sales set for release. While from NZ we get the trade balance, business confidence, and building consents data.
The current interbank midrate is:    NZDGBP 0.5083    GBPNZD 1.9673

The interbank range this week has been:    NZDGBP 0.5060 - 0.5187    GBPNZD 1.9278 - 1.9765
Tuesday 20th May 3:00PM (NZT)
Last week’s softer than expected UK employment data combined with a very ‘dovish’ tone from the central bank in their inflation report to see the UK Pound come under some pressure. This helped drive the cross to the New Zealand dollar up to its 0.5187 high (1.9278 low). The pair quickly retreated from there however, as the NZD itself saw a period of pressure on the back of some weakness in global stocks and associated risk aversion. Since then it has been very quiet with a tight trading range containing price action. With only inflation expectations set for release this week from NZ, the focus will turn to the UK where we get inflation data tonight. This will be followed by the BOE minutes and retail sales tomorrow, then on Thursday we get the second reading of GDP. With little momentum in either direction we can expect further ranging between 0.5100 and 0.5200 (1.9608 and 1.9231) in the near term. It seems unlikely we will see a significant move below 0.5100 (above 1.9608) until we see a period of weakness in the New Zealand dollar.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
NZD/GBP 0.5125 0.5000 0.5200 0.5107 - 0.5187
GBP/NZD 1.9512 1.9231 2.0000 1.9278 - 1.9580

Friday 16th May 2:00PM (NZT) - Update
After starting the week trading very quietly just above 0.5100 (below 1.9608), this pair once again found the NZ dollar upside to be the path of least resistance. We saw gains up toward 0.5190 (losses down to 1.9268) on the back of some New Zealand dollar strength and UK Pound weakness. The GBP came under pressure in the wake of the Bank of England Inflation Report. In that report the BOE down played the chance of bringing forward expected rate hikes, and took a very dovish tone. The market was a little disappointed with this and sold the GBP as a result. This combined with a slightly firmer NZD to see the gains up to last night’s 0.5187 high (losses down to 1.9279). We have however, seen a sharp correction from that high in the last 12 hours and this likely confirms we are in for further ranging between 0.5100 and 0.5200 (1.9608 and 1.9231) in the near term. There is little of interest from NZ next week so the focus will turn to UK data in the form of inflation, the BOE minutes, and the second estimate of Q1 GDP.
The current interbank midrate is:    NZDGBP 0.5148    GBPNZD 1.9425

The interbank range this week has been:    NZDGBP 0.5091 - 0.5187    GBPNZD 1.9278 - 1.9641
Tuesday 13th May 2:00PM (NZT)
The NZD pull back from last week’s 0.5169 high (1.9346 low) made it to the 0.5088 (1.9650) level before losing momentum. Since then the cross has traded a tight range between there and 0.5127 (1.9500). Data from the UK remains supportive, although the GBP hasn’t seen a material increase in demand as a result. Volatility in general has been somewhat lacking since late last week, but data due for release over the coming days could easily spark some interest. Tomorrow from New Zealand we have retail sales and the RBNZ financial stability report to digest, and this will be followed by UK employment data and the Bank of England inflation report on Wednesday evening.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
NZD/GBP 0.5110 0.5000 0.5200 0.5088 - 0.5169
GBP/NZD 1.9569 1.9231 2.0000 1.9344 - 1.9653

Friday 9th May 2:00PM (NZT) - Update
Movements in the value of the New Zealand dollar have been the main driver of this pair over the past week. After a very strong run recently the NZD peaked on Tuesday evening, helped by another fall in dairy prices at Fonterra’s regular auction. But the real downside action came in the wake of Governor Wheeler’s talk of currency intervention on Wednesday morning. This turned the tide for the NZD and since then we have seen a relentless grind lower. The UK Pound itself has remain well supported on the back of solid data and an improving economic outlook and this combined with the NZD weakness saw the pair quickly trade back down to 0.5100 (up to 1.9608). I would expect to see some further NZD weakness in the near term and that should drive the cross down towards last week’s 0.5060 low (1.9763 high). If we see a break below there the pair might have a crack at 0.5000 (2.0000) although that seems a way off at this point. Next week from New Zealand we have the RBNZ financial stability report, along with retail sales and the annual budget release to digest. While from the UK the focus turns to employment data and the BOE inflation report.
The current interbank midrate is:    NZDGBP 0.5100    GBPNZD 1.9608

The interbank range this week has been:    NZDGBP 0.5088 - 0.5169    GBPNZD 1.9344 - 1.9653
Tuesday 6th May 2:00PM (NZT)
It has been one way traffic for the New Zealand dollar since this time last week making gains against most other currencies. Against the UK Pound the rally has taken us close to key resistance, now at 0.5155 (support at 1.9399). As long as this level contains the strength, there is a good chance the pair will turn back down to target levels under 0.5100 again (over 1.9608). Above 0.5155 (below 1.9399) however, that outlook will change. In that case we could easily see continued strength to 0.5200 (1.9231). Data from both countries has been supportive of their respective economies although the widening interest rate differential, in NZ’s favour, will continue to underpin the local currency. Key UK releases this week come in the form of services PMI, the BOE rate meeting, and manufacturing production data. While from NZ we have employment figures tomorrow to draw focus.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
NZD/GBP 0.5150 0.5000 0.5200 0.5061 - 0.5155
GBP/NZD 1.9417 1.8868 1.9608 1.9399 - 1.9760

Friday 2nd May 3:00PM (NZT) - Update
Data this week from both New Zealand the UK has been supportive of their respective currencies, but the New Zealand dollar has managed to outperform the UK Pound and as such the cross has recovered back above 0.5100 (below 1.9608). As long as minor resistance around 0.5130 (support around 1.9493) caps the NZD topside, the recent strength can be viewed as merely a corrective bounce within the broader NZD downswing that began back on March 27th.  Under this scenario the pair should turn back down and look to test 0.5000 (2.0000) over the coming weeks. Any sustained move up through 0.5130 (down through 1.9493), however would put this in doubt. Next week’s NZ employment data will draw focus, as will UK releases in the form of service PMI and the Bank of England rate meeting.
The current interbank midrate is:    NZDGBP 0.5105    GBPNZD 1.9589

The interbank range this week has been:    NZDGBP 0.5061 - 0.5117    GBPNZD 1.9545 - 1.9760
Tuesday 29th April 3:30PM (NZT)
The past week has seen this pair continue its pull back from the 0.5239 peak (1.9088 low) set toward the end of last month. The UK Pound continues to be supported by strong data with good results for public sector net borrowing and retail sales underpinning recent gains. The New Zealand dollar has started to show some weakness over the past seven days thanks in large part to warnings from the RBNZ that a strong currency could impact future interest rate decisions. There is potential for further gains in the GBP with key data still to come this week. Tonight’s GDP will be followed by manufacturing and construction PMI’s later in the week, and expectations are for solid results. This should keep the NZD cross under pressure with the downside bias remaining in play.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
NZD/GBP 0.5074 0.5000 0.5200 0.5068 - 0.5144
GBP/NZD 1.9708 1.9231 2.0000 1.9441 - 1.9730

Wednesday 23rd April 4:30PM (NZT) - Update
Some relative weakness in the New Zealand dollar over the past week saw this pair trade down just below 0.5100 (above 1.9608) early yesterday. That weakness was aided by softer than expected NZ inflation data last Wednesday, and the key going forward is how that affects, if at all,  the RBNZ’s projected path of interest rate hikes. A 0.25% increase is all but assured tomorrow at the RBNZ meeting, and this is helping to stem the recent NZD weakness. But of interest will be the certainty to which the RBNZ signals further hikes in June and July. Tonight’s Bank of England (BOE) minutes should have little impact on the GBP with retail sales data on Friday drawing more focus. We could easily see a recovery in the pair towards 0.5145 (1.9436), but as long as that level caps the topside a gradual downside bias remains in play.
The current interbank midrate is:    NZDGBP 0.5110    GBPNZD 1.9569

The interbank range this week has been:    NZDGBP 0.5094 - 0.5158    GBPNZD 1.9386 - 1.9632
Thursday 17th April 3:30PM (NZT) - Update
After witnessing repeated bounces back towards 0.5200 (1.9231) over the past two weeks, the NZD finally looks to have rolled over and last night we saw the pair trade down to 0.5112 (up to 1.9562) before putting in a small NZD recovery. The driving forces behind the move lower have been weaker dairy prices and soft NZ inflation that weighed on the local currency. Supportive data from the UK has also boosted demand for the GBP with last night’s drop in unemployment a particular focus. We could easily see a move back up toward 0.5160 (down 1.9380), but as long as that level caps the NZD topside, I would expect further tests of the downside over the coming week. The RBNZ rate meeting next week will be a major focus, while from the UK we get the BOE minutes and retail sales data.
The current interbank midrate is:    NZDGBP 0.5130    GBPNZD 1.9493

The interbank range this week has been:    NZDGBP 0.5112 - 0.5209    GBPNZD 1.9197 - 1.9561
Tuesday 15th April 2:30PM (NZT)
The UK economy is performing very well at the moment and the GBP has made gains against many currencies as a result. Against the NZD unfortunately, the same cannot be said. Gains in the GBP have simply been matched or outpaced by a very strong NZD and as a result the cross continues to trade near 0.5200 (1.9231). We have seen periods of weakness such as last Thursday night when stock market concerns weighed on the NZD, but the currency recovered strongly the following evening. While resistance around 0.5200 (support 1.9231) continues to cap the NZD topside, there is potential for a deeper pullback, but the resilient nature of the NZD is starting to raise concerns for that outlook, and a move toward 0.5300 (1.8868) is not out of the question. There is key data from both countries this week in the form of inflation (CPI). While from the UK we also have employment numbers to draw focus.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
NZD/GBP 0.5185 0.5100 0.5300 0.5145 - 0.5209
GBP/NZD 1.9286 1.8868 1.9608 1.9197 - 1.9437

Friday 11th April 3:30PM (NZT) - Update
It has been another good week for data from the UK which has helped to limit this pair to a high of 0.5209 (low of 1.9198) despite a very strong performance from the New Zealand dollar. The cross spent much of the week trading in a choppy range between 0.5170 and 0.5210 (1.9342 - 1.9194) as both currencies saw periods of relative outperformance. In the last 24 hours however, the NZD has begun to lose ground helped by stock market nervousness. This has caused a reduction in risk sentiment and that has weighed on the NZD which was at very elevated levels on many crosses. Global stock markets probably present the biggest risk for the NZD in the coming trading sessions. I still expect to see a deeper correction in this pair back down toward 0.5100 (1.9608) over the coming week or two. We get inflation data from both countries next week along with UK employment numbers.
The current interbank midrate is:    NZDGBP 0.5152    GBPNZD 1.9410

The interbank range this week has been:    NZDGBP 0.5145 - 0.5209    GBPNZD 1.9197 - 1.9437
Tuesday 8th April 1:30PM (NZT)
Weakness in the New Zealand dollar last week saw this pair put in a decent correction lower. That weakness was triggered by another decline in dairy prices and this drove the cross to a low of 0.5123 (high of 1.9520). We have however, seen a good bounce from those lows thanks in large part to US employment data released on Friday night. The market was disappointed with that result and this saw US yields decline, which in turn help higher yielding currencies, like the NZD, to outperform others. This outperformance by the NZD helped to dive the cross to the GBP back up towards 0.5200 (down towards 1.9231). This leaves the near term picture a little uncertain, although the downside is favoured while resistance around 0.5225 (supports around 1.9139) caps the NZD. Tonight’s UK manufacturing production data may well provide the lead ahead of Thursday’s Bank of England rate statement.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
NZD/GBP 0.5184 0.5100 0.5300 0.5123 - 0.5224
GBP/NZD 1.9290 1.8868 1.9608 1.9142 - 1.9518

Friday 4th April 1:30PM (NZT) - Update
It certainly seems the tide has turned on recent strength in this cross with a significant pullback from highs around 0.5240 (lows around 1.9084) now under way. The trigger for the correction was a further decline in dairy prices at Fonterra’s regular auction. This weighed heavily on the New Zealand dollar that had rallied strongly across the board during the month of March. The sharp nature of the correction suggests there is further downside to come and the initial target is a test of 0.5100 (1.9608). UK data itself has been a touch weaker than expected this week with PMI’s for the manufacturing, construction, and service sectors all declining a slightly from the previous month. Their overall levels however, are still consistent with a solid recovery and as such the impact on the UK pound was limited. Of more importance was BOE Governor Carney’s suggestion that an interest rate hike before next year’s general election is likely. Next week from the UK have manufacturing production and trade balance data ahead of the BOE’s rate meeting on Thursday. From NZ the focus turns to business confidence and the manufacturing index.
The current interbank midrate is:    NZDGBP 0.5153    GBPNZD 1.9406

The interbank range this week has been:    NZDGBP 0.5123 - 0.5235    GBPNZD 1.9101 - 1.9518
Tuesday 1st April 1:30PM (NZT)
This pair has seen a strong rally over the past five weeks from levels below 0.5000 (above 2.0000). It does now seem however, that momentum is waning and we may well have seen a top put in place at 0.5239 (bottom at 1.9087). That high traded as the NZD was triggering stop loss buying on Thursday last week. Since then the NZD has drifted slowly lower and it now looks vulnerable to a deeper correction. A move down through 0.5190 (1.9268) would confirm this and likely result in a test of 0.5100 (1.9608). Data from the UK last week was broadly supportive of the UK Pound and this week we have PMI’s from the manufacturing, construction, and service sectors to draw focus
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
NZD/GBP 0.5205 0.5100 0.5300 0.5167 - 0.5239
GBP/NZD 1.9212 1.8868 1.9608 1.9087 - 1.9352

Friday 28th March 12:30PM (NZT) - Update
This pair had little overall direction for much of the past week. In the last 24 hours however the New Zealand dollar has been a very strong performer across the board and this has driven the cross up to its 0.5239 high (1.9087 Low). Stop loss buying in the NZD has certainly been a factor as these gains have come in the face of very strong UK retail sales released overnight. Further NZD gains from here cannot be ruled out, however I would expect an NZD top to be put in place somewhere between here and 0.5300 (1.8870). The NZD is now at record levels on the trade weighted index (TWI) and with a lack of fresh fundamental data driving this move momentum should start to wane. Tonight from the UK we get the latest current account data and a final reading of quarterly GDP, while next week we a trifecta of PMI’s from the manufacturing, construction, and services sectors. From NZ we get nationwide building consent figures along with a reading on business confidence.
The current interbank midrate is:    NZDGBP 0.5220    GBPNZD 1.9157

The interbank range this week has been:    NZDGBP 0.5162 - 0.5239    GBPNZD 1.9087 - 1.9371
Tuesday 25th March 2:00PM (NZT)
There has been little overall direction for this pair since early last week with price action seemingly comfortable around the 0.5175 (1.9324) level. There is however, key data from the UK over the coming days starting with inflation data tonight and this result could set the tone for the coming week. A stronger than expected reading from CPI will see demand for the UK Pound increase and this would push the cross to the NZD below key support near 0.5160 (above resistance near 1.9380). After such a strong run from below 0.5000 (above 2.0000) at the beginning of the month, I favour a pullback in the cross and a correction back down through that NZD support level. A weaker reading on CPI however will no doubt see resistance above 0.5200 (1.9230) tested again. New Zealand trade balance data tomorrow will also draw focus as will UK retail sales figures on Thursday.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
NZD/GBP 0.5181 0.5000 0.5200 0.5134 - 0.5216
GBP/NZD 1.9301 1.9231 2.0000 1.9172 - 1.9478

Friday 21st March 2:00PM (NZT) - Update
The New Zealand dollar has been on a strong run against the UK pound recently and the early stages of this week saw further sharp gains. The pair briefly traded up over 0.5200 (below 1.9231) as the NZD benefited from improving risk sentiment and news that it will now be directly convertible into CNY (Chinese Yuan). The UK Pound has also struggled to find much support after comments from BOE Governor Carney downplayed the chance of rate hikes to cool the property market. The pullback from levels over 0.5200 (levels under 1.9231) has seen the pair now trade down to key trend line support at 0.5160 (1.9380 resistance). While the NZD holds above this level there is potential for another look higher. However, a break below 0.5160 (above 1.9380) would be strong negative sign and could well signal the end of its recent strength. The focus would then turn to the downside and an eventual retest of 0.5000 (2.0000). With only the trade balance set for release from NZ next week the focus will turn to UK data in the form of inflation, retail sales, and the current account, and the final revision to December quarter GDP.
The current interbank midrate is:    NZDGBP 0.5166    GBPNZD 1.9357

The interbank range this week has been:    NZDGBP 0.5122 - 0.5216    GBPNZD 1.9172 - 1.9524
Tuesday 18th March 3:30PM (NZT)
The New Zealand dollar burst higher against the UK Pound after last Thursday’s RBNZ rate hike. Pressure to the topside intensified after Australian employment data surprised many coming in much stronger than expected. That helped drag the NZD up towards 0.5150 (down towards 1.9417) where it currently trades. The NZD has remained supported in the early stages of this week as tensions in the Ukraine have eased. With the Ukraine referendum now out of the way peacefully and the realisation that the only action the west is likely to take comes in the form of sanctions, risk trades have again found favour. The consolidation of NZD gains through 0.5100 (1.9608) for this pair brings into doubt the medium term negative outlook. A move towards the next resistance level just over 0.5200 (just under 1.9231) could eventuate. That being said, the NZD is now trading at elevated levels on a number of crosses and this should see further gains much harder fought. Focus now turns to the BOE monetary policy meeting minutes on Wednesday, and NZ GDP data on Thursday.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
NZD/GBP 0.5145 0.5000 0.5200 0.5073 - 0.5167
GBP/NZD 1.9436 1.9231 2.0000 1.9354 - 1.9712

Thursday 13th March 1:00PM (NZT) - Update
The New Zealand dollar has remained well support all week in the lead up to the RBNZ rate hike announcement earlier this morning. This has seen the cross to the GBP pressuring the NZD top of its recent trading range at 0.5100 (bottom 1.9600) for much of the week. In the wake of the RBNZ release we have seen some further buying of the NZD and this has taken the pair up toward 0.5130 (down to 1.9493), an area that last traded on briefly in mid-January. There has been little in the way of positive economic news to drive the UK Pound higher over the past five days and as a result NZD strength has been the main driver of the pair. As such prospects for the NZD over the coming week are likely to continue to drive this pair. Although there is certainly potential for further gains, the NZD is at very elevated levels against most other currencies and this should make the topside much tougher going. I believe we will see a healthy correction lower once this near term strength runs its course. Next week from NZ we have consumer confidence, the current account, and GDP data to digest. While from the UK the focus will turn to employment data and the Bank of England minutes.
The current interbank midrate is:    NZDGBP 0.5125    GBPNZD 1.9512

The interbank range this week has been:    NZDGBP 0.5029 - 0.5130    GBPNZD 1.9493 - 1.9885
Tuesday 11th March 3:00PM (NZT)
The New Zealand dollar is currently trading just below key resistance around 0.5100 (support around 1.9608). This level has capped the NZD topside for much of the past four months and it seems likely to continue to do the same in the near term. The cross has been driven up here in large part thanks to strength in the NZD, which gained a big helping hand from solid Australian data last week. That data saw the AUD surge higher and dragged the NZD along for the ride. In the last 24 hours we have also seen the UK pound come under pressure on the back of comments from BOE deputy Charlie Bean when he said a strong GBP could delay any potential rate hike. With 0.5100 (1.9608) continuing to cap, selling current levels is recommended for those looking to purchase GBP. We do have the RBNZ rate decision on Thursday, but with a 25 point hike well factored into the market the risks are that we could see some profit taking in the NZD after that announcement. This would pressure the local currency to the downside and send the cross to the GBP back to more comfortable levels around 0.5000 (2.0000). From the UK this week we also get readings on retail sales, the trade balance, and industrial production.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
NZD/GBP 0.5090 0.4900 0.5100 0.4995 - 0.5094
GBP/NZD 1.9646 1.9608 2.0408 1.9631 - 2.0020

Thursday 6th March 8:30PM (NZT) - Update
This pair opened the week with the NZD on the back foot after tensions in the Ukraine escalated over the weekend. This caused some ‘risk off’ selling of the New Zealand dollar and drove the cross down to 0.4984 (up to 2.0064). As the week has progressed however, tensions have subsided and the NZD, along with other ”risk assets” has managed a recovery. This has seen the pair back up towards 0.5040 (down towards 1.9841). Data from the UK has for the most part continued to be supportive of the recovery, although it hasn’t been strong enough to drive significant gains in the GBP. The NZD will find gains harder to come by, and selling into any strength above 0.5050 (buying under 1.9802) is recommended. There is plenty of resistance around 0.5100 (support around 1.9608), which has capped the NZD topside for much of the past four months, and this is forecast to continue over the coming weeks. The highlight from NZ next week will be the RBNZ cash rate decision, which is widely expected to see a 25pt hike. The Bank of England (BOE) meet tonight, although this should hold no surprises and be of limited impact on the currency. Next week from the UK we get manufacturing production, trade balance, the BOE quarterly bulletin, and the inflation report.
The current interbank midrate is:    NZDGBP 0.5040    GBPNZD 1.9841

The interbank range this week has been:    NZDGBP 0.4984 - 0.5047    GBPNZD 1.9814 - 2.0064
Tuesday 4th March 2:00PM (NZT)
This pair seems content to trade a tight range around 0.5000 (2.0000) for the time being. A period of NZD strength was seen late last week after a number of supportive releases from New Zealand boosted the local currency. However much of this work was undone in early Monday morning trade after escalating tensions in the Ukraine over the weekend caused a small ‘risk off’ move. There is little from NZ to draw focus this week, while from the UK we have construction and service sector PMI’s ahead of the Bank of England rate meeting on Thursday evening. Looking at the broader picture, there seems little on the immediate horizon that could cause a break out of the now well-defined 0.4900 to 0.5100 (2.0408 - 1.9608) range that has been in play since November last year.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
NZD/GBP 0.5018 0.4900 0.5100 0.4976 - 0.5041
GBP/NZD 1.9928 1.9608 2.0408 1.9837 - 2.0096

Friday 28th February 3:00PM (NZT) - Update
After trading down to 0.4944 (up to 2.0227) late last week, the New Zealand dollar has put in a solid recovery against the UK Pound. There wasn’t any fundamental driver for the initial strength in the NZD early in the week, and as such the pair was slowly drifting lower giving back those gains until yesterday. Positive news from Fonterra combined with good trade balance and migration data to support the NZD. This saw the cross surge back above 0.5000 (below 2.0000) where it currently remains. The UK has also had supportive data this week, but its impact on the GBP has been more muted than the NZD’s reaction to local releases. If anything, this week’s price action only serves to highlight the range bound nature of the pair at the moment. The cross has broadly traded between 0.4900 and 0.5100 (2.0408 and 1.9608) since November last year and that looks likely to continue in the near term. The longer term picture suggests the risks are skewed to the downside and an eventual break back below 0.4900(above 2.0400). We could however, be in for many more weeks range trading before that happens. With little from NZ next week the focus for fundamental news turns to offshore. BOE Governor Carney gives a speech tonight that will be closely watched, and next week we get manufacturing, construction and services PMI data. We also have the Bank of England (BOE) rate meeting scheduled for Thursday evening.
The current interbank midrate is:    NZDGBP 0.5029    GBPNZD 1.9885

The interbank range this week has been:    NZDGBP 0.4944 - 0.5030    GBPNZD 1.9881 - 2.0227
Tuesday 25th February 3:00PM (NZT)
For much of the past week the New Zealand dollar was grinding lower against the UK Pound. Positive sentiment from the Bank of England (BOE)monetary policy meeting minutes and a decent fall in January unemployment claims aided the GBP. The NZD was weighed on by some poor Chinese manufacturing data and this help drive the pair to its 0.4944 low (high 2.0227). Since then however we have seen a recovery back to the 0.5000 (2.0000) level. A large part of this move came in the last 24 hours as the NZD and AUD put in some solid gains across the board. It’s hard to isolate any key driver for the overnight strength in the Australasian currencies, and this would suggest that further upside price action should be limited. If minor resistance around 0.5025 (support around 1.9900) contains the NZD topside then the pair should eventually turn back down. Any move up through 0.5025 (down through 1.9900) would open the way for another test toward 0.5100 (1.9608).
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
NZD/GBP 0.5010 0.4900 0.5100 0.4944 - 0.5011
GBP/NZD 1.9960 1.9608 2.0408 1.9956 - 2.0227

Friday 21st February 1:30PM (NZT) - Update
The New Zealand dollar is gradually losing ground the UK Pound and much of this week has been spent trading below the psychologically important level of 0.5000 (2.0000). The outlook for the UK economy remains positive and this was highlighted with the BOE minutes and employment data released this week. The weeks low of 0.4944 traded yesterday in the wake of poor Chinese manufacturing data that weighed on the NZD. Since then we have seen a decent recovery although the pair remains below 0.5000 (above 2.0000). Bank of England officials will be closely watched next week when they testifying to a parliamentary select committee on the inflation outlook. We also have UK GDP and consumer confidence data to digest. From NZ we get inflation expectations, the trade balance, building consents, and business confidence data.
The current interbank midrate is:    NZDGBP 0.4984    GBPNZD 2.0064

The interbank range this week has been:    NZDGBP 0.4944 - 0.5011    GBPNZD 1.9956 - 2.0227
Tuesday 18th February 3:00PM (NZT)
Price action in this pair has been driven over the past week by one major event. Mark Carney used the Bank of England's (BOE) inflation report to signal a change in his forward guidance policy. Although the unemployment rate is no longer a major threshold, Governor Carney did signal interest rate rises are on the cards for the first half of next year. This caused a material increase in demand for the UK Pound and drove the cross to the New Zealand dollar down from 0.5090 to back below 0.5000. I would expect to see the pair continue testing the downside of the coming week with the target being support around 0.4900. Yesterday’s NZ retail sales data was a little disappointing and the only other release this week domestically will be producer prices on Thursday. From the UK however we have inflation, the BOE minutes, unemployment, and retail sales. All of which have the potential to move the market.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
NZD/GBP 0.5000 0.4900 0.5100 0.4980 - 0.5090
GBP/NZD 2.0000 1.9608 2.0408 1.9643 - 2.0080

Friday 14th February 1:30PM (NZT) - Update
The New Zealand dollar maintained somewhat elevated levels against the UK Pound in the early half of the week trading up to 0.5091 (down to 1.9643). That all changed in the wake of the Bank of England's (BOE) inflation report. Governor Carney used that release to signal a likely rate hike in the first half of 2015 and this saw a material increase in demand for the GBP. The BOE are going to look through the drop in unemployment and keep rates low for a while yet, but rate hike are now at least on the radar, albeit a year or so away. The rejection from the weeks high has reinforced resistance around 0.5100 (support around 1.9608) and the pair looks likely to again test level below 0.5000 (above 2.0000) over the coming days.  A range of 0.4900 to 0.5100 (2.0408 to 1.9608) is likely to dominate in the near term with all the risks being for an eventual NZD break lower.
The current interbank midrate is:    NZDGBP 0.5010    GBPNZD 1.9960

The interbank range this week has been:    NZDGBP 0.4992 - 0.5090   GBPNZD 1.9643 - 2.0032
Tuesday 11th February 3:00PM (NZT)
This pair recovered from fresh cycle lows early last week, helped by stronger than expected NZ employment data and reduced emerging market concerns. The pair recovered above 0.5000 (below 2.0000) and the gains continued all the way to 0.5071 (1.9720) before finally running out of steam. Since then trading has been largely directionless. There is plenty of resistance around the 0.5100 (support around 1.9608) level and I would expect this to continue to cap the NZD topside. Selling NZD (buying GBP) on strength is therefore recommended with further dips below 0.5000 (above 2.0000) expected in the coming weeks. The focus for the week comes from the UK and the release of the Bank of England's quarterly inflation report. This could well decide near term direction in the pair.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
NZD/GBP 0.5047 0.4900 0.5100 0.4938 - 0.5071
GBP/NZD 1.9814 1.9608 2.0408 1.9720 - 2.0251

Friday 7th February 3:30PM (NZT) - Update
After trading to fresh cycle lows just below 0.4900 (above 2.0408) late last week, the NZD has put in a sold bounce to once again trade back above 0.5000 (below 2.0000). The strength in the pair has come from the New Zealand dollar that has recovered a lot of ground across the board this week. Decent NZ employment data has combined with an easing of emerging market concerns, and a strong Australian dollar to underwrite the week’s gains in the NZD. Resistance toward 0.5100 (support toward 1.9608) should cap any further NZD strength in the near term as the pair seems to be comfortable trading back and forth around 0.5000 (2.0000) for now. Expect a 0.4900 to 0.5100 (1.9608 to 2.0408) range over the coming week.
The current interbank midrate is:    NZDGBP 0.5040    GBPNZD 1.9841

The interbank range this week has been:    NZDGBP 0.4926 - 0.5071    GBPNZD 1.9720 - 2.0300
Tuesday 4th February 3:00PM (NZT)
Weakness in the New Zealand dollar as a result of last Thursday’s decision not to hike rates by the RBNZ has been the main driver of this pair over the last few days. The GBP has also been under some pressure but not to the same extent as the NZD. The cross traded down to a cycle low of 0.4896 (high of 2.0290) on Friday evening as further pressure came on the NZD. We have seen a decent recovery off those lows, thanks in part to some weaker than expected UK manufacturing data, but key resistance around 0.5000 (support at 2.0000) has not even been tested. This keeps the focus on the down side and the target is support around 0.4750 (resistance 2.1053) . A test of that level may well be a way off however it seems likely this pair has entered a new lower trading range between those two levels i.e. 0.4750 and 0.5000 (2.1053 and 2.0000). The immediate focus now turns to tomorrows NZ employment data and then Thursday nights BOE rate meeting.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
NZD/GBP 0.4945 0.4800 0.5000 0.4896 - 0.5006
GBP/NZD 2.0222 2.0000 2.0833 1.9976 - 2.0290

Friday 31st January 4:00PM (NZT) - Update
The GBP has maintained its recent pressure on the NZD this week. That pressure was increased following the unchanged decision from the RBNZ yesterday. Assuming the emerging market fears do not elevate further, the NZD should find natural demand around current levels as many patient people look to buy NZD with GBP. The RBNZ looks almost certain to hike the cash rate in March and this should underpin NZD demand in the coming weeks. The good news continues from the UK for the most part, but do not expect too much action from the BOE until they see wage pressure increase. 

The current interbank midrate is:    NZDGBP 0.4950    GBPNZD 2.0202

The interbank range this week has been:    NZDGBP 0.4929 - 0.5010   GBPNZD 1.9958 - 2.0290
Tuesday 28th January 4:30PM (NZT)
The New Zealand dollar once again trades below 0.5000 (above 2.000) to the UK Pound. Pressure came on the pair last week from two fronts that drove the cross below this psychologically important level. Firstly we had UK unemployment data that came in much lower than expected and supported the GBP. This has also brought into question the Bank of England forward guidance policy. Secondly, we saw increasing concern around volatility in emerging markets and this caused a significant reduction in demand for risk assets. This pressured the NZD and helped the cross trade down to its low of 0.4947. The medium term goal for this pair continues to be a test of major support around 0.4750 over the coming months. In the very near term we have the RBNZ rate statement to focus on which will be released on Thursday morning at 9am NZT. Most forecasters are expecting the first rate hike by the RBNZ in March, however there is a very real risk of hike this week. Governor Wheeler is also giving an on the record speech on Friday which will be closely followed by the market. Bank of England Governor Carney is also speaking this week on Wednesday and ahead of that we get GDP data tonight which should confirm their economy is on a firm footing.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
NZD/GBP 0.4977 0.4900 0.5100 0.4947 - 0.5080
GBP/NZD 2.0092 1.9531 2.0408 1.9685 - 2.0214

Friday 24th January 2:00PM (NZT) - Update
It has been a choppy week for the NZD-AUD cross. The NZD jumped higher on the back of NZ inflation on Tuesday, and then gave back all the gains when Australia released their inflation data on Wednesday. That Australian data was much stronger than expected but the impact ended up being short lived. The negative influences of soft Chinese manufacturing data and emerging market concerns have weight on the AUD to much greater extent than the New Zealand dollar, and as a result the NZDAUD rallied up to make fresh cycle highs. The psychological level of 0.9500 (1.0526) has continued to cap further NZD gains so far although it is coming under increasing pressure. The focus for next week will be the RBNZ rate statement and potential for a hike. From Australia we get business confidence, new home sales, and producer prices data to digest.
The current interbank midrate is:    NZDGBP 0.4977    GBPNZD 2.0092

The interbank range this week has been:    NZDGBP 0.4980 - 0.5080   GBPNZD 1.9685 - 2.0080
Tuesday 21st January 3:00PM (NZT)
The New Zealand dollar seems content to trade between 0.5000 and 0.5120 (2.0000 and 1.9531) to the UK Pound at the moment. The lower end of that range was tested on Friday evening after much stronger than expected UK retail sales numbers hit the wires. However in the last few hours we have seen NZ inflation data released that was a touch stronger than expected. This caused an increase in demand for NZD’s and as a result the pair has leapt up towards 0.5070 (1.9724). We can likely expect a similar range to dominate trading heading into next week’s RBNZ rate meeting. Ahead of that we have the NZ manufacturing index on Thursday. From the UK we get minutes from the latest Bank of England (BOE) rate meeting on Wednesday along with the unemployment rate.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
NZD/GBP 0.5072 0.4900 0.5120 0.4998 - 0.5137
GBP/NZD 1.9716 1.9531 2.0408 1.9467 - 2.0008

Friday 17th January 2:00PM (NZT) - Update
The New Zealand dollar materially outperformed the UK Pound on Monday and Tuesday as the GBP suffered a hangover from last week’s soft data releases. The NZD was also boosted by business confidence that printed at a 20 year high. The pair has however struggled to hold onto gains above 0.5100 (below 1.9608) with a spike up to 0.5137 (down to 1.9467) being very short lived. I expect the 0.5120 (1.9531) area to continue to cap the NZD topside assuming we don’t get any negative surprises from tonight’s UK retail sales figures. This data will be followed up by the Bank of England (BOE) minutes and the unemployment rate on Wednesday next week. In NZ next week the focus will turn to inflation on Tuesday and the business NZ manufacturing index on Thursday.
The current interbank midrate is:    NZDGBP 0.5107    GBPNZD 1.9581

The interbank range this week has been:    NZDGBP 0.5023 - 0.5137   GBPNZD 1.9467 - 1.9908
Tuesday 14th January 3:30PM (NZT)
It has been an interesting week for this pair. As the New Zealand dollar slowly weakened late last week, the cross briefly traded below 0.5000 (above 2.0000). But Friday’s release of US employment data turned the market around. As funds flowed out of USD’s in the wake of that release the NZD materially outperformed the GBP. The move was compounded by further soft UK data that had hit the wires a few hours earlier. UK manufacturing production came in well below expectation and this capped of a forgettable week for UK data in general. In the last 24 hours we have seen the GBP continue to come under pressure, and the NZD continue to make gains. The result is that the cross rate has leapt even higher and how sits just above 0.5100. There is a fair amount of resistance around current levels so further gains for the NZD will be much harder fought. Focus for the rest of the week comes from the UK with key data in the form of inflation out tonight, then on Friday we get the latest reading of retail sales.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
NZD/GBP 0.5100 0.4900 0.5100 0.4994 - 0.5120
GBP/NZD 1.9608 1.9608 2.0408 1.9531 - 2.0024

Friday 10th January 3:00PM (NZT) - Update
This pair maintained a very tight trading range in the first half of the week, locked between 0.5030 and 0.5060 (1.9881 and 1.9763). In the last couple of days however, the cross has drifted back down towards 0.5000 (2.0000) on the back of a slightly weakening in the New Zealand dollar. But the reality remains there has been little in the way of fundamental news or data to drive the pair. The broader theme of an improving UK economy should continue to see the GBP exert pressure on the NZD as the pair again looks to test levels below 0.5000 (above 2.0000). The medium term target is a test of support around 0.4750 (resistance around 2.1053), however it could be a number of months before we get there. From NZ next week we have the NZIER business confidence survey and the house price index set for release. From the UK we get data on manufacturing production tonight, and next week we get the latest readings on inflation and retails sales.
The current interbank midrate is:    NZDGBP 0.5004    GBPNZD 1.9984

The interbank range this week has been:   NZDGBP 0.5000 - 0.5061    GBPNZD 1.9759 - 2.0000
Tuesday 7th January 2:30PM (NZT)
For much of the past two week the New Zealand dollar has remained under pressure from a strong UK Pound. The pair spend much of the time between boxing day and late last week trading round 0.4960 (2.0161). This all changed late last week however when a broad sell off in the USD saw the NZD benefit to a much greater extent than the GBP. With liquidity reduced thanks to the time of year there was a decent ‘short squeeze’ in the NZD on Friday last week and this caused the cross to the GBP to rally back up to the 0.5050 (1.9802) area. Dramatic gains from here seem unlikely with resistance around 0.5100 (1.9608) protecting the topside. While the pair holds below that level the expectation is for an eventual turn back down and sub 0.5000 (2.0000)  to trade again. There is very little in the way of economic data from NZ this week, however from the UK there are a couple of key releases. Most importantly, we have the Bank of England (BOE) rate decision on Thursday and there is some talk we may get a statement released at the same time. On Friday we also have manufacturing and industrial production data to draw focus.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
NZD/GBP 0.5042 0.4900 0.5100 0.4924 - 0.5061
GBP/NZD 1.9833 1.9608 2.0408 1.9759 - 2.0309

Friday 20th December 1:30PM (NZT) - Update
The first half of this week saw the New Zealand dollar trade quietly around the 0.5070 (1.9725) level against the UK Pound. Eventually though, continued strong data from the UK drove the NZD lower as the GBP outperformed. A fall in UK unemployment was the trigger for the latest round of GBP strength and even a very strong NZ GDP figure yesterday couldn’t turn the tide. The tapering announcement from the Fed is a little more negative for the NZD than the GBP, and this eventually saw the pair back blow 0.5000 (2.0000). The cross could easily test back towards recent lows at 0.4941 (highs 2.0239) in the coming week. We are however heading into thin Christmas markets and this makes the near term picture a lot less certain. Resistance toward 0.5100 (support 1.9610) should continue to cap any NZD strength and further downside action is the favoured scenario.
The current interbank midrate is:    NZDGBP 0.5005    GBPNZD 1.9980

The interbank range this week has been:    NZDGBP 0.4983 - 0.5090  GBPNZD 1.9646 - 2.0068
Tuesday 17th December 2:00PM (NZT)
The past week has seen sideways action for this pair with trading contained for the most part between 0.5020 and 0.5080 (1.9685 and 1.9920). Overall the New Zealand dollar has remained well supported, helped by solid data and the RBNZ monetary policy statement last week. The UK economy is also performing well and should continue to recovery over the coming months. This will helped to underpin the UK pound, and we should eventually see this pair head back below 0.5000 (above 2.0000). In the near term though we have the Fed policy meeting on Thursday morning our time, and we can expect plenty of volatility around that announcement. This provides the biggest risk on the week and it is too tough to call what the Fed will do. From NZ we also have GDP and business confidence data, while from the UK we get the bank of England minutes, unemployment, retail sales, current account, and the final reading of GDP.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
NZD/GBP 0.5075 0.4900 0.5100 0.5014 - 0.5083
GBP/NZD 1.9704 1.9608 2.0408 1.9673 - 1.9944

Friday 13th December 2:30PM (NZT) - Update
The NZD has had a small downside bias against the Pound Sterling this week, but only because it started the week at very elevated levels after last Friday nights volatile session. The NZ dollar saw a period of modest strength on the back of the RBNZ monetary policy statement yesterday, but in recent hours this has all but been reversed. The downside looks the more vulnerable direction and another test sub 0.5000 (above 2.0000) will likely eventuate, although momentum is lacking in the very near term. Resistance towards 0.5100 (support 1.9608) should continue to cap any potential strength and NZ dollar selling levels toward there is recommended. From NZ next week we have consumer sentiment, the current account, business confidence, and GDP data. While from the UK we have inflation, retails sales, GDP, and the minutes from the last BOE meeting.
The current interbank midrate is:    NZDGBP 0.5038    GBPNZD 1.9849

The interbank range this week has been:    NZDGBP 0.5014 - 0.5093   GBPNZD 1.9635 - 1.9944
Tuesday 10th December 2:00PM (NZT)
The New Zealand dollar spent much of last week treading water around the 0.5010 (1.9960) level to the UK Pound. That all changed on Friday evening in the wake of the US employment report. There was widespread volatility across all markets after that release, during which the NZD materially outperformed the GBP. This caused the cross to trade all the way up to NZD resistance around 0.5100 (support around 1.9608), where it stayed heading into the weekend. But last night the GBP started to play catch up to moves seen in other currencies on Friday and this has seen the GBP retrace back towards more comfortable levels. The pair may well spend some time trading between 0.5000 and 0.5100 (1.9608 and 2.0000) in the near term, but looking further out the broader picture still remains NZD negative as the GBP plays catch up, and I expect the cross to head sub 0.5000 (2.0000) again in the coming weeks. We have the RBNZ monetary policy statement to draw focus on Thursday. While from the UK we get data on manufacturing production, industrial production, and the trade balance tonight, followed by an estimate of monthly GDP tomorrow.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
NZD/GBP 0.5040 0.4900 0.5100 0.4986 - 0.5093
GBP/NZD 1.9841 1.9608 2.0408 1.9635 - 2.0056

Friday 6th December 3:00PM (NZT) - Update
The GBP has performed well against most currencies over the last month, but this week those gains stalled and the currency retraced some of its recent move. This had more to do with market positioning than any fundamental change in view. For the most part data from the UK remains very supportive of the economic outlook and this should see the GBP continue to appreciate over the coming months. The reduced demand for GBP’s this week has allowed the cross to the New Zealand dollar to recovery from recent cycle lows at 0.4941 (highs 2.0239) set late last week. Solid terms of trade data on Monday also supported the NZD, and we have seen the pair trade to a high of 0.5037 (low of 1.9853). There is potential for this move to continue to as high as 0.5100 (low as 1.9608), however it seems likely the pair will eventually turn back down and levels under 0.5000 (over 2.0000) should trade again. The focus next week will be on the RBNZ’s monetary policy statement.  While from the UK, we have manufacturing data and a speech from governor Carney to digest.
The current interbank midrate is:    NZDGBP 0.5030    GBPNZD 1.9881

The interbank range this week has been:    NZDGBP 0.4964 - 0.5037    GBPNZD 1.9853 - 2.0145
Tuesday 3rd December 2:30PM (NZT)
Last week was a big one for this pair with price action suggesting the cross is breaking into a new lower trading range. Support around 0.5000 (resistance 2.0000) had contained the pair for much of the past six months, but this well and truly gave way late last week as cross traded to a low of 0.4941 (high of 2.0239).  Since then we have seen a NZD recovery helped yesterday by very good terms of trade data out of New Zealand, and the pair now trades back above 0.5000 (below 2.0000). We could easily see further NZD upside to around 0.5050 (1.9802) in the short term, but looking further out, the risks are skewed to the downside. The next key support is 0.4750 (2.1053) and I would not be surprised to see a 0.4750 - 0.5000 (2.0000 - 2.1053) range dominate trade over the coming months. With little in the way of economic data from NZ this week the focus will turn to the UK. From there we get readings on the construction and service sectors, along with the BOE rate decision and statement on Thursday.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
NZD/GBP 0.5010 0.4900 0.5100 0.4941 - 0.5112
GBP/NZD 1.9960 1.9608 2.0408 1.9562 - 2.0239

Friday 29th November 3:30PM (NZT)
This pair has lost a lot of ground this week and is currently having a solid test below the psychological level of 0.5000 (above 2.0000). There is a fair amount of support just below 0.5000 (resistance above 2.0000) and it is being severely tested at the moment. Although we have seen supportive data out of New Zealand this week, the NZD has struggled on most crosses and this has combined with an improving UK outlook to result in the weeks losses. The question is whether the pair can sustain this move below 0.5000 (above 2.0000) and break into a new lower NZD range. If that proves to be the case the next target will be 0.4750 (2.1053). That however seems a long way off and I suspect the cross could put in a bounce to 0.5050 (1.9802) before testing the downside again. Direction next week will likely be driven by UK data with a number of key releases scheduled. We have PMI surveys for the manufacturing, construction, and service sectors to draw focus, along with the BOE rate decision. While from NZ there is only the overseas trade index to draw focus.
The current interbank midrate is:    NZDGBP 0.4950    GBPNZD 2.0202

The interbank range this week has been:    NZDGBP 0.4947 - 0.5112  GBPNZD 1.9562 - 2.0214
Tuesday 26th November 4:30PM (NZT)
This pair spent the better part of a month trading around 0.5150 (1.9417) with little overall direction. However, the release of the Fed minutes last week was the trigger the pair needed for a move toward key support around 0.5000 (resistance around 2.0000). The New Zealand dollar underperformed the UK Pound as the market re-priced the risk of Fed tapering in the coming months. This saw the cross trade to a low of 0.5021 (high of 1.9916) heading into the weekend. We have seen a decent NZD bounce from there in the early stages of this week with the pair now testing minor resistance at 0.5100 (support at 1.9608) . It seems likely however that we will spend some more time in the lower part of the broader 0.5000 - 0.5250 (2.0000 - 1.9048) range that has dominated trading for much of the past six months now. Buying anywhere below 0.5050 (1.9802) should continue to provide good value over the medium term as that broad range looks likely to remain in play for now. This week from NZ we have trade balance data, business confidence, and building consents to draw focus. From the UK we have BOE officials testifying tonight in front of a parliamentary committee, then later in the week we get the second estimate of GDP, the BOE financial stability report, and speech from BOE Governor Carney.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
NZD/GBP 0.5092 0.5000 0.5200 0.5021 - 0.5198
GBP/NZD 1.9639 1.9231 2.0000 1.9238 - 1.9763

Friday 22nd November 2:30PM (NZT)
It has been an interesting week for this pairing. The first half of the week saw directionless trade within an increasingly familiar recent rate. However, the widespread impact of US monetary policy has been well displayed in the price action of this pair since the release of the US monetary policy meeting minutes. The market has moved to materially increased the odds of QE tapering from the Fed in the coming months and this has seen the NZ dollar come under increasing pressure for obvious reasons. However, it appears that the easy ground has now been made by the GBP, with the pair pushing towards the lower NZD end of the well established .05000 - .5250 range (1.9050 - 2.0000). Further out performance by the GBP should not be assumed from the current levels. In the absence of top tier NZ economic news next week, the lead will likely come from UK growth numbers on Wednesday (along with the ongoing USD influence).
The current interbank midrate is:    NZDGBP .5064    GBPNZD 1.9747

The interbank range this week has been:    NZDGBP .5062 - .5204    GBPNZD 1.9216 - 1.9755
Tuesday 19th November 2:30PM (NZT)
We have seen mostly range bound action for this pair over the last week with little overall direction. The New Zealand dollar did see some relative strength at the start of this week on the back of some positive risk sentiment. This was the result of the reform package announced by the Chinese Communist Party over the weekend. That buoyed Asian stock markets and risk assets in general. This took the pair above 0.5200 (below 1.9231) for a time, but the cross has quickly reverted to more comfortable levels around 0.5170 (1.9342). There is little to draw focus from NZ this week with only producer prices data out tomorrow. From the UK we have minutes from the last BOE monetary policy meeting, along with headlines from a number of on the record speeches that are scheduled. Expect more ranging around the 0.5150 (1.9417) level over the coming week.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
NZD/GBP 0.5170 0.5060 0.5260 0.5129 - 0.5207
GBP/NZD 1.9342 1.9011 1.9763 1.9205 - 1.9497

Friday 15th November 2:00PM (NZT) - Update
This pair has been very range bound over the course of the week, although there have been some choppy moves within that range. Surprisingly soft UK inflation data, the RBNZ financial stability report, and UK employment numbers all caused sharp moves that were quickly reversed. As a result the pair continues to trade around 0.5150 (1.9415) where it seems very comfortable. There is little in the way of important data from NZ next week so the driving force for the pair will likely continue to come from offshore. To that extent from the UK we have BOE minutes, public sector net borrowing, and industrial order expectations to digest.
The current interbank midrate is:    NZDGBP 0.5150    GBPNZD 1.9417

The interbank range this week has been:    NZDGBP 0.5129 - 0.5193  GBPNZD 1.9257 - 1.9497
Tuesday 12th November 2:30PM (NZT)
After making gains in the first part of last week the NZD came under pressure on Thursday and Friday on the back of good US data. In the wake of much better than expected US GDP and employment numbers the New Zealand dollar lost substantially more ground than the UK Pound. This saw the cross fall from 0.5220 to a low of 0.5141 (rally from 1.9157 to 1.9451). So far we have seen a small recovery off those NZD lows and the risk remains for further downside towards support around 0.5120 (resistance 1.9531). That level will likely provide good value buying of NZD against the GBP over the course of the week. This week will be another interesting one for the UK with inflation, employment, and retail sales all set for release. We also get the Bank of England’s inflation report and a speech from Governor Carney to digest. From NZ we have the RBNZ financial stability report on Wednesday and retails sales on Thursday.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
NZD/GBP 0.5155 0.5060 0.5260 0.5141 - 0.5230
GBP/NZD 1.9399 1.9011 1.9763 1.9120 - 1.9451

Friday 8th November 2:00PM (NZT) - Update
For much of this week the New Zealand dollar continued to appreciate against the UK Pound. The pair was given a boost after solid NZ employment data on Wednesday and this saw the cross trade up over 0.5200 (under 1.9231). The UK itself has had plenty of strong data out this week, but up until last night the NZD had simply just out performed the GBP. That has changed in the last 24 hours however, as much better than expected US GDP data has seen the NZD lose a lot more ground than the GBP. As a result the NZDGBP cross has fallen sharply to the weeks lows (GBPNZD highs). That US data caused the stock market to lose over 1% and caused some risk reduction trades to wash through the market. These are negative for the NZD and the result is this pair now trades mid-range within the broad 0.5000 to 0.5300 (1.8868 - 2.0000) band that has confined it for five months now. Next week will see the focus turn to the release of the 3rd quarter NZ retail sales numbers on Thursday, and the bi-annual RBNZ Financial Stability report which is due early Wednesday morning. From the UK we have inflation, unemployment, and retail sales on the calendar.
The current interbank midrate is:    NZDGBP 0.5176    GBPNZD 1.9320

The interbank range this week has been:    NZDGBP 0.5162 - 0.5230   GBPNZD 1.9120 - 1.9372
Tuesday 5th November 1:30PM (NZT)
The New Zealand dollar has seen grinding appreciation against the UK Pound for much of the past week. The appreciation accelerated at the end of last week as the GBP came under a little pressure. Data out of the UK continues to support the outlook for the GBP, while expectations of a rate hike in NZ next year are underpinning the NZD.  This leaves the broader picture consistent with the range trading we have seen for the last five months. The downside is supported around 0.5000 (resistance 2.0000) and NZD buying toward there is recommended, while resistance on the topside towards 0.5300 (1.8868) represents good NZD selling. Data from both countries could impact this week. From NZ, we have employment numbers tomorrow, while from the UK the highlight will be the Bank of England (BOE) monetary policy decision on Thursday. Ahead of that we get data on the UK service sector and manufacturing production.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
NZD/GBP 0.5193 0.5060 0.5260 0.5120 - 0.5207
GBP/NZD 1.9257 1.9011 1.9763 1.9205 - 1.9531

Friday 1st November 3:00PM (NZT) - Update
This pair has had a very quiet week trading comfortably around the 0.5140 (1.9455) level with no real direction. The outlook for both economies remains positive, although the UK is coming from a much lower base. Taking a look at broader price action, the pair had a sharp fall from around 0.5300 (rally from 1.8868) the previous week, and the failure of the NZ dollar to put in any meaningful recovery leaves this week’s action looking like a ‘dead cat bounce’. This keeps the focus on the NZD downside, and a move through 0.5120 (1.9531) would confirm that outlook. We could then see a move towards 0.5050 (1.9802) initially. Next week will however be a big one for the UK, with readings on the construction and service sectors followed by the Bank of England (BOE) interest rate meeting and statement. From New Zealand however the calendar is pretty light with only employment data on Tuesday to focus on.
The current interbank midrate is:    NZDGBP 0.5153    GBPNZD 1.9406

The interbank range this week has been:    NZDGBP 0.5114 - 0.5178   GBPNZD 1.9312 - 1.9554
Tuesday 29th October 3:00PM (NZT)
Weakness in the New Zealand dollar last week saw this pair continue to give up ground and the cross traded down to 0.5114 (up to 1.9554) heading into the weekend. Solid UK GDP data on Friday helped to increase demand for the GBP and kept the NZD under pressure. But there has been little follow through selling of NZ dollar in the early stages of this week. Looking at the broader picture, the pair is now trading near the middle of the 0.5000 to 0.5300 (1.8868 - 2.0000) range that has contained it for a number of months now. This range is expected to continue to define trade over the coming weeks and maybe even into the years end. The risks for near term direction are still skewed to the downside with move toward 0.5060 (up to 1.9763) favoured. Key to any price action this week however will be the RBNZ rate statement on Thursday. From the UK we should continue to see strong numbers this week when we get lending data, house price index, and a reading on the manufacturing sector.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
NZD/GBP 0.5153 0.5060 0.5260 0.5114 - 0.5268
GBP/NZD 1.9406 1.9011 1.9763 1.8983 - 1.9554

Friday 25th October 1:30PM (NZT) - Update
The New Zealand dollar had a quiet start to the week trading around 0.5240 (1.9084) to the UK Pound, with little direction. That all changed on Wednesday afternoon as a wave of selling hammered Australasian currencies after concerns about the Chinese banking system saw risk assets dumped. The NZDGBP quickly fell to 0.5180 ( rose to 1.9305) before the NZD regained some composure. Since then however the NZD has remained on the back foot and the cross has lost more ground to currently trade around 0.5150 (1.9417). The Bank of England (BOE) minutes have also lent support to the GBP this week as they have upgraded growth forecasts and showed no concern at all over recent gains in the Pound. With the prospect of further gains in the GBP the cross to the NZD could easily fall further and test levels below 0.5100 (above 1.9608). Next week’s highlight will be the RBNZ monetary policy statement, which is followed by building consents and business confidence. While from the UK we have house prices, consumer confidence, and manufacturing data to digest.
The current interbank midrate is:    NZDGBP 0.5130    GBPNZD 1.9493

The interbank range this week has been:    NZDGBP 0.5130 - 0.5268    GBPNZD 1.8983 - 1.9493
Tuesday 22nd October 2:20PM (NZT)
The NZ dollar spiked up to 0.5299 (down to 1.8871) against the GBP last week. This came on the back of relative strength in the New Zealand dollar thanks in part to strong NZ inflation data. But those NZD highs were short lived, and resulting pullback broke through a key level at 0.5260 (1.9011) to turn the focus back to the NZD downside. The cross has so far traded down to 0.5227 (up to 1.9131) helped by a somewhat resurgent GBP, although impetus for a further move has so for been lacking any real conviction. Key data this week comes in the form of NZ trade balance, the Bank of England (BOE) minutes, and UK GDP. That GDP figure is expected to be a solid result and this should keep the UK Pound in demand this week. Risks are therefore still skewed to the NZD downside for this pair as long as 0.5260 (1.9011) level continues to cap the fortunes for the NZD.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
NZD/GBP 0.5239 0.5060 0.5260 0.5225 - 0.5299
GBP/NZD 1.9088 1.9011 1.9763 1.8871 - 1.9139

Friday 18th October 2:00PM (NZT) - Update
The New Zealand dollar continued to make gains against the UK Pound in the first part of the week. This was helped by stronger than expected inflation from NZ on Wednesday that boosted the local currency. But the UK has also seen decent data again this week in the form of very low unemployment claims and better than expected retail sales. These combined to eventually see demand return for the GBP and that has caused the cross to the NZD to pull back from the spike higher we saw on Wednesday night. The break back below 0.5260 (above 1.9763) has been key, and this now turns all the focus for the pair back to the downside. I would not be surprised to see the cross back below 0.5200 (1.9231) over the coming sessions. From NZ next week we have only credit card spending and trade balance data, while from the UK we get data on public sector borrowing, the BOE minutes, and the preliminary reading of GDP to digest.
The current interbank midrate is:    NZDGBP 0.5238    GBPNZD 1.9091

The interbank range this week has been:    NZDGBP 0.5200 - 0.5299   GBPNZD 1.8871 - 1.9231
Tuesday 15th October 2:20PM (NZT)
This pair had a sharp move higher last Wednesday on the back of the surprisingly weak industrial production number from the UK. Since then we have seen further moves in the same direction, but this has mainly been due to strength in the New Zealand dollar. The driver for this seems to be an increase in risk appetite as a deal in the standoff in Washington appears close. How much further this takes the pair remains to be seen, but we are now approaching the top of the current range around 0.5250 ( range lows 1.9048). I would suggest further NZD gains from there will prove tough going, and the risks are for a reversal of strength over the coming days. Key drivers this week come in the form of inflation data for both countries, followed by UK employment and retails sales.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
NZD/GBP 0.5242 0.5000 0.5250 0.5141 - 0.5243
GBP/NZD 1.9077 1.9048 2.0000 1.9073 - 1.9451

Friday 11th October 12:00PM (NZT) - Update
The first half of this week saw the New Zealand dollar trading sideways against the UK Pound around the 0.5160 (1.9380) level. But some surprisingly soft UK industrial production data on Wednesday night had the GBP under all sorts of pressure and the cross traded up to a high of 0.5221 (down to 1.9153) ,before reversing some of the gains. The Bank of England’s (BOE) rate decision last night held little in the way of surprises and there was no market impact to speak of. Further tests above 0.5200 cannot be ruled out, however there is big resistance toward 0.5250 and I would be very surprised to see a sustained move above that level. Data next week from the UK includes inflation, unemployment, and retail sales. While from New Zealand we have inflation data on Wednesday to draw focus.
The current interbank midrate is:    NZDGBP 0.5180    GBPNZD 1.9305

The interbank range this week has been:    NZDGBP 0.5141 - 0.5221   GBPNZD 1.9153 - 1.9451
Tuesday 8th October 2:15PM (NZT)
With little in the way of market moving data out of either country over the last few trading days this pair has been driven solely by market flows. To that extent the UK Pound came under some pressure on Friday evening as a rumored large sell order went through the market. That caused the cross to the New Zealand dollar to rally sharply touching a 0.5198 high (1.9238 low). With no fundamental data backing the move, and the ‘flow’ having washed through the market, the pair proceeded to retrace much of those gains in the early part of this week. Over the coming days we do get some fundamental data out of the UK that could well influence the pair. Tomorrow night we get manufacturing and industrial production, then on Thursday night it’s the BOE rate decision. However none of this is likely to provide enough momentum to break the pair from its now well-defined 0.5000 to 0.5250 range (1.9048 to 2.0000).
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
NZD/GBP 0.5152 0.5000 0.5250 0.5066 - 0.5198
GBP/NZD 1.9410 1.9048 2.0000 1.9238 - 1.9739

Friday 4th October 2:00PM (NZT) - Update
With the broad range of 0.5000 to 0.5250 (1.9048 to 2.0000) is still very much in play, this pair slowly headed to the lower end of that range until comments yesterday from RBNZ Governor Wheeler gave the New Zealand dollar a boost. His talk of the potential need for sharp interest rate hikes to cool the property market saw the pair bounce from 0.5066 (1.9739) up to 0.5140 (down to 1.9455). The UK has continued to release very supportive economic data, although the UK Pound has struggled to make much in the way of gains on the back of it in the last few days. I still expect another eventual test of key support around 0.5000 (resistance 2.0000), but the recent strength in the cross may see a period of ranging price action above 0.5100 (1.9608) over the coming week. Upcoming data from NZ includes business confidence and the manufacturing index, while from the UK next week's highlights will be manufacturing production, trade balance, and the BOE’s cash rate meeting.
The current interbank midrate is:    NZDGBP 0.5131    GBPNZD 1.9489

The interbank range this week has been:    NZDGBP 0.5066 - 0.5155    GBPNZD 1.9399 - 1.9739
Tuesday 1st October 2:15PM (NZT)
The New Zealand dollar has remained under pressure from a strong Pound since it was rejected from around 0.5250 (1.9048) a week and a half ago. So far the downside has been contained by minor support around 0.5100 (minor resistance 1.9608). The latest NZD upside attempt has however been capped by resistance at 0.5160 (1.9380 support) and the market has now turned back down. A test below 0.5100 (above 1.9608) looks to be on the cards in the near term. Looking at the broader picture, the cross could easily trade down to what is now key support around 0.5000 (resistance around 2.0000) over the coming weeks. The chance of that will likely be determined by UK data this week in the form of indexes from the manufacturing, construction, and service sectors.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
NZD/GBP 0.5120 0.5000 0.5250 0.5106 - 0.5205
GBP/NZD 1.9524 1.9048 2.0000 1.9212 - 1.9585

Friday 27th September 2:00PM (NZT) - Update
After closing last week just under strong resistance at 0.5250 (over support 1.9048), the NZD could not sustain those levels and eventually started drifting lower. The Pound Sterling gained support from more solid UK data and some upbeat comments, while the New Zealand dollar was under pressure on a number of crosses. This saw the pair trade all the way down to 0.5124 (up to 1.9516) before finding some support. It may have been the upward revision by Fonterra to their payout forecasts that saved the NZD and eventually saw a recovery in this pair to the current level of 0.5170 (1.9342). Taking a broader view we are still trading comfortably within the 0.5000 - 0.5250 (1.9048 - 2.0000) range and this looks set to continue for some time. The focus next week will be on surveys from the manufacturing, construction, and service sectors in the UK. From NZ there is only building consents data set for release.
The current interbank midrate is:    NZDGBP 0.5163    GBPNZD 1.9369

The interbank range this week has been:   NZDGBP 0.5124 - 0.5228   GBPNZD 1.9128 - 1.9516
 
Tuesday 24th September 2:00PM (NZT)
Last week in the wake of the Fed announcement the New Zealand dollar outperformed the UK Pound Sterling and this saw the cross trade up to a 0.5248 high (1.9055 low). The move was aided by decent GDP data from NZ and some disappointing UK retail sales figures. Since then however the pair has consolidated in sideways trade between 0.5200 and 0.5240 (1.9084 and 1.9194). There is strong resistance above 0.5250 (1.9048) and I would be surprised to see a sustained move up through there. The most likely scenario is that the pair will eventually drift lower back towards 0.5100 (1.9608) over the coming week or two. That prediction could prove incorrect if UK data takes a turn for the worse and we see the GBP come under some pressure. But at this point last weeks soft retail sales numbers look more like an aberration than the start of a trend. Close attention will be paid to a number of BOE speakers this week, along with house price data, current account and the final reading of GDP. From NZ there is only trade balance and business confidence to digest.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
NZD/GBP 0.5190 0.5000 0.5250 0.5129 - 0.5248
GBP/NZD 1.9268 1.9048 2.0000 1.9055 - 1.9497

Friday 20th September 2:00PM (NZT) - Update
The New Zealand dollar started the week off trading quietly against the UK Pound Sterling around the 0.5140 (1.9455) level. But since then the NZD has outperformed the GBP, and last night the pair touched 0.5248 (1.9055) before pulling back a touch. This move has come after inflation in the UK has moderated a touch and they have had some disappointing retail sales numbers. The NZD was also give a boost yesterday from solid GDP figures. There is tough resistance above 0.5250 (support below 1.9048) and this should continue to cap further NZD appreciation. Since it broke down in early June the NZDGBP has struggle around this level with only one move to 0.5300 (1.8868) that was quickly reversed. The NZD might spend some time testing these levels that represent the top of its recent range, however I wouldn’t be surprised to see it fail and eventually head back below 0.5100 (above 1.9608) in the coming weeks. Next week from the UK we have the house price index, current account, and final reading of GDP to focus on. While from NZ the calendar is much lighter with only trade balance on Wednesday to draw focus.
The current interbank midrate is:    NZDGBP 0.5222    GBPNZD 1.9150

The interbank range this week has been:   NZDGBP 0.5117 - 0.5248    GBPNZD 1.9055 - 1.9543
Tuesday 17th September 2:00PM (NZT)
After the NZD snapped higher mid last week on the back of the RBNZ monetary policy statement, this pair has remained somewhat range bound. 0.5120 to 0.5160 (1.9380 to 1.9531) has seemed to contain price action since then, and with it currently trading bang in the middle of that tight range there seems little motivation to break out. However, there is plenty this week to spark interest starting with UK inflation data tonight. The market is expecting a small decline to 2.7% and any reading above there could materially increase demand for the Pound Sterling. Inflation has been stubbornly high in the UK throughout the recession, and a move back up toward 3% would be a real concern for the BOE. Wednesday sees the release of the minutes from the latest BOE  monetary policy meeting, and on Thursday the latest retail sales numbers are due for release. From NZ attention will turn to current account and GDP out on Wednesday and Thursday respectively.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
NZD/GBP 0.5140 0.5000 0.5200 0.5090 - 0.5161
GBP/NZD 1.9455 1.9231 2.0000 1.9376 - 1.9646

Friday 13th September 2:00PM (NZT) - Update
It has been an interesting week for this pair as it continues to make gains in the face of very good data coming out of the UK. The Pounds Sterling is finding strength from this data and has improved on many other crosses, however the New Zealand dollar has simply been outperforming it. The NZDGBP cross leapt on Thursday after the RBNZ monetary policy statement and has so far held onto gains around the 0.5150 ( lows 1.9417) level. With big resistance between 0.5200 and 0.5250 (support 1.9048 and 1.9231) expected to cap the NZD topside, any further gains will start to run selling. We may well in fact find that current levels provide a good opportunity to sell NZD and buy GBP. Next week from the UK we get inflation, the BOE minutes, and retail sales. While from NZ we get current account, consumer sentiment and GDP data.
The current interbank midrate is:    NZDGBP 0.5147    GBPNZD 1.9429

The interbank range this week has been:    NZDGBP 0.5090 - 0.5159   GBPNZD 1.9384 - 1.9646
 
Tuesday 10th September 2:00PM (NZT)
The New Zealand dollar has continued to drift higher against the Pound Sterling helped on Friday night by some poor trade balance data from the UK. A surprise drop in exports does put a question mark over the outlook for the UK manufacturing sector that has been performing well over the last few months. That data saw the pair trade towards the middle of the now well-defined 0.5000 - 0.5250 (1.9048 - 2.0000) range that has dominated trading since the end of May. Expect quiet trading ahead of the UK’s employment data out on Wednesday night, and the RBNZ monetary policy statement on Thursday.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
NZD/GBP 0.5113 0.5000 0.5200 0.4998 - 0.5130
GBP/NZD 1.9558 1.9231 2.0000 1.9493 - 2.0008

Friday 6th September 2:00PM (NZT) - Update
Having spent the better part of two weeks in a tight range testing support around 0.5000 (resistance at 2.0000), the NZD has finally given up on the downside and drifted higher to currently trade at 0.5060 ( lower to 1.9763). It seems likely the NZD will continue to drift higher still and could test levels over 0.5100 ( below 1.9608). This move comes even as the Pound Sterling has been well supported on the back of very solid data from the UK. But the New Zealand dollar has also done well this week. It has been supported by a reduction in risk aversion and helped higher by a strong AUD. If the UK’s recovery continues at its current pace then it will only be a matter of time before the NZDGBP breaks below 0.5000 (GBPNZD above 2.0000) and targets 0.4750 (2.1053). But until then the current range of 0.5000 - 0.5250 (1.9048 - 2.0000) remains in play, although the NZD top side of that range would be a stretch in the near term. Next week we have the RBNZ monetary policy statement to focus on while from the UK employment data will be key.
The current interbank midrate is:    NZDGBP 0.5068    GBPNZD 1.9732

The interbank range this week has been:    NZDGBP 0.4982 - 0.5074    GBPNZD 1.9708 - 2.0072
Tuesday 3rd September 4:00PM (NZT)
This pair has lacked any real direction recently trading mostly in a tight range above the 0.5000 (2.0000) level. There have been a few dips below there, but all have been quickly reversed, while the topside has been contained by minor resistance near 0.5050 (1.9802). The UK has continued to release very supportive data, the most recent of which last night showed the manufacturing sector is performing very well. This has helped to support the GBP. But with the NZD also stronger in the early part of this week as risk aversion wanes somewhat, the pair has remained range bound. Looking over the medium to long term I do expect the 0.5000 (2.0000) level to give way at which point the pair will target 0.4750 (2.1053). However, it seems there is a lack of momentum for that to happen in the near term and while the cross holds above this key level the risk remains for a move back up toward 0.5100 (1.9608). There is plenty more to come from the UK this week with readings from the construction and service sectors ahead of the Bank of England (BOE) rate announcement on Thursday night.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
NZD/GBP 0.5032 0.5000 0.5200 0.4982 - 0.5054
GBP/NZD 1.9873 1.9231 2.0000 1.9786 - 2.0072

Friday 30th August 2.00PM (NZT) - Update
It has been a quiet week for this pair as it continues to bounce around in a tight range near key support at 0.5000 (resistance 2.0000). A couple of brief flurries below that level have been quickly reversed, as have two tests higher to the 0.5050 level. The net result is that the New Zealand dollar has had little change in value to the Pound Sterling over the course of the week. As long as this 0.5000 (2.0000) level protects the downside, I expect an eventual recovery back to the middle of the broad 0.5000 - 0.5250 (1.9048 - 2.0000) range, that has been in play for a couple of months now. That outlook would change however on a sustained break below 0.5000 (2.0000). In that case the picture would quickly turn negative with an initial target of 0.4750 (2.1053). There is plenty to focus on next week from the UK, with the release of indexes from the manufacturing, service, and construction sectors, as well as the BOE policy meeting.
The current interbank midrate is:    NZDGBP 0.5008    GBPNZD 1.9968

The interbank range this week has been:   NZDGBP 0.4984 - 0.5054   GBPNZD 1.9786 - 2.0064
 
Tuesday 27th August 4:00PM (NZT)
The New Zealand dollar lost a lot of ground to the UK Pound Sterling last week and headed into Friday just above support at 0.5000. When the upward revision of UK GDP hit the wires there was a knee jerk reaction to buy Pounds and this saw the pair trade down to a low of 0.4982. But those lows didn’t last long and the pair quickly recovered the 0.5000 level. Some relative strength in the NZD in the early stages of this week had the cross back up to 0.5054 only to turn and fall sharply back to 0.5000 in the last few hours. So it seems the pair will do some more work around this key level. This risk for this week is centred around a speech by Bank of England Governor Carney tomorrow night. It seems likely he will try to talk the GBP down to a degree and that may enable this pair to once again bounce from the lower end of its broad 0.5000 - 0.5250 range. It is however impossible to know what the speech holds ahead of time, and should he say something that triggers more buying of GBP, then another test below 0.5000 will be on the cards.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
NZD/GBP 0.5026 0.5000 0.5200 0.4982 - 0.5101
GBP/NZD 1.9897 1.9231 2.0000 1.9604 - 2.0072

Friday 23rd August 2.00PM (NZT) - Update
The most surprising thing about this pair is that it’s taken until this week to get back and test the bottom of the current range at 0.5000 (2.0000). UK data has been uniformly strong for weeks now but the NZDGBP was stubbornly maintaining level just below 0.5200 (above 1.9230). Once the tide turned however things changed rapidly. The pair traded from its high of 0.5218 (low 1.9164) to its low of 0.5004 (high 1.9984) in less than 72 hours. The weakness was helped by the announcement from the RBNZ on loan-to-value ratios for the banking system. Since testing key NZD support at 0.5000 (2.0000) the performance of the pair has been of some concern. There has been almost no recovery with the cross failing on a number of occasions to regain a foothold above 0.5030 (below 1.9881). The risk now is a heavy assault on the key 0.5000 (2.0000) NZD support level should the GBP find support tonight from an upward revision to GDP. A sustained move below that level would be a very weak signal and bring the next target of 0.4750 (2.1053) into focus.
The current interbank midrate is:    NZDGBP 0.5029    GBPNZD 1.9885

The interbank range this week has been:   NZDGBP 0.5004 - 0.5218   GBPNZD 1.9164 - 1.9984
Tuesday 20th August 3:00PM (NZT)
Some relative strength in the New Zealand dollar over the past few days saw this pair trade up over 0.5200 (under 2.0000). This occurred even as the UK Pound Sterling had been well supported on a number of other crosses. But those levels didn’t last long and last night as the NZD, AUD, and CAD, all seemed to underperform against other currencies, and this pair turned around sharply. It now trades just above 0.5100 (1.9608) thanks to the announcement from the RBNZ on new loan-to-value ratios for the banking sector. This combined with the recent run of firm UK data should see a move to the lower part of the current 0.5000 - 0.5250 (1.9048 - 2.0000) range. The focus will now turn to the second reading of UK GDP out on Friday. Ahead of that we also get UK data on public sector borrowing and industrial order expectations which should have limited impact.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
NZD/GBP 0.5110 0.5050 0.5250 0.5100 - 0.5218
GBP/NZD 1.9569 1.9050 1.9782 1.9164 - 1.9608

Friday 16th August 2.00PM (NZT) - Update
The most interesting thing about this pair is that fact that we are not testing the lower end of the now well defined range at 0.5000 (2.0000). There has been a string of very supportive data out of the UK in the last few weeks and although the GBP has gained somewhat, those gains been much slower going than I would have expected. For the time being levels over 0.5200 (1.9231) should provide good selling opportunities as we look for a move back below 0.5100 (1.9608). The broader 0.5000 - 0.5250 (1.9048 - 2.0000) range looks to be untroubled in the near term, especially with the lack of top tier data out of either country next week.
The current interbank midrate is:    NZDGBP 0.5182    GBPNZD 1.9298

The interbank range this week has been:    NZDGBP 0.5129 - 0.5205    GBPNZD 1.9212 - 1.9497
Tuesday 13th August 3:00PM (NZT)
The last week has seen this pair easily contained by its recent and increasingly familiar range. The NZ dollar steadily recovered from the opening pressure following the Fonterra whey powder issue. The UK economic news continues its recent run of form, with services and manufacturing numbers the latest to impress. These two opposing forces meant the price action for the pair was relatively benign. This sees just the 2nd quarter retail sales numbers offer a material focus in NZ. In the UK, the inflation, employment and retail sales numbers will hold attention. Expect the recent range .5050 - .5250 (1.9050 - 1.9780) to again contain the price action, assuming no major surprises come to light.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
NZD/GBP 0.5170 0.5050 0.5250 0.5055 - 0.5201
GBP/NZD 1.9342 1.9050 1.9782 1.9227 - 1.9268

Friday 9th August 2.00PM (NZT) - Update
Like most of the New Zealand dollar crosses against the GBP it opened lower on Monday morning on the back of the Fonterra contamination news. As the NZD recovered from its lows, so did this pair trading up to 0.5160 (down to 1.9380) heading into the release of the BOE’s inflation report and forward guidance details. That release caused some volatility, but the net result was a stronger GBP. The NZD has again recovered thank to now trade around 0.5150 (1.9417) level. So this week has seen some good volatility, however it’s all been well contained within the now comfortable 0.5000 - 0.5250 (2.0000 - 1.9048) range. Expect those parameters to continue to define trade over the coming week. Upcoming data from the UK includes inflation, retail sales, and the BOE minutes. While from NZ we also have retail sales, along with the manufacturing index.
The current interbank midrate is:    NZDGBP 0.5143    GBPNZD 1.9444

The interbank range this week has been:   NZDGBP 0.5055 - 0.5190   GBPNZD 1.9007 - 1.9268
Tuesday 6th August 1:45PM (NZT)
After spending much of the previous two weeks testing the top of the recent range around 0.5260 (under 1.9011), this pair started to pull back in the second half of last week. This was largely in response to stronger data out of the UK. Then with weakness in the NZD at the market open yesterday morning on the back of the Fonterra news, the pair gapped lower to trade around 0.5070 (highs 1.9724). A gradual NZD recovery took place throughout the day, but more strong data overnight from the UK service sector saw the pair trade as low as 0.5055 (highs 1.9782). We have seen a decent recovery again off those levels, however any further upside action should be limited to resistance between 0.5120 (support 1.9531)  and 0.5140 (1.9455) in the near term. The focus for the pair now turns to NZ employment data tomorrow morning ahead of the key Bank of England (BOE) inflation report tomorrow night. The outcome of that report and the investigation into forward guidance by the BOE will be key in determining direction for the pair.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
NZD/GBP 0.5102 0.5050 0.5250 0.5055 - 0.5261
GBP/NZD 1.9600 1.9050 1.9782 1.9007 - 1.9272

Friday 2nd August 2.00PM (NZT) - Update
It has been an interesting week for this pair. The NZD has seen periods of reasonable demand and this has seen the pair spend time pressuring the resistance at .5250 (support 1.9050). This NZD resistance has held and the materially stronger than expected UK manufacturing, and uneventful BOE monetary policy meeting have seen the pair back away as demand for the GBP finally increased. So the pair remains within its recent, and increasingly familiar range. Next week will be another important one for this pair. In NZ the quarterly employment numbers will be closely watched. In the UK, the BOE’s quarterly Inflation Report offers an opportunity for Gov. Carney to clarify the outlook for monetary policy, and this will provide the primary lead for the GBP in the coming months.
The current interbank midrate is:    NZDGBP 0.5224    GBPNZD 1.9142

The interbank range this week has been:   NZDGBP 0.5189 - 0.5261   GBPNZD 1.9007 - 1.9272
Tuesday 30th July 4:45PM (NZT)
After rallying up to 0.5260 (1.9011) last week in the wake of the RBNZ monetary policy statement, the NZD has so far failed to kick on. This has seen the pair drift a touch lower as the market awaits the key BOE monetary policy decision on Thursday evening. That BOE announcement could set the tone for near term direction. The market is expecting the BOE to give some firmer forward guidance and this will limit any strength in the GBP ahead of the actual release. There is plenty of resistance between 0.5250 and 0.5300 (1.9048 and 1.8868). While this caps the topside NZD the risk remains for the pair to drift back down toward the bottom of its recent range at 0.5000 (2.0000).
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
NZD/GBP 0.5213 0.5050 0.5250 0.5158 - 0.5263
GBP/NZD 1.9183 1.9050 1.9800 1.9001 - 1.9387

Friday 26th July 2.00PM (NZT) - Update
The New Zealand dollar spent much of the week in directionless trade below 0.5220 (above 1.9157) against Pound Sterling. As the NZD was dragged down in the wake of very poor manufacturing numbers out of China, the pair traded as low at 0.5160 (high as 1.9380). However yesterday’s RBNZ announcement saw an increase in demand for the NZD, and the pair jumped back up over 0.5200 (under 1.9231). Overnight the NZD has continued to outperform the GBP, and the cross has traded as high as 0.5263 (low as 1.9001) before pulling back a touch. There is plenty of resistance between 0.5250 and 0.5300 (support 1.9048 and 1.8868), and I expect the pair to struggle to overcome this in the near term. Next week could be a big one with the Bank of England (BOE) monetary policy meeting taking the focus. Ahead of that we get UK consumer confidence, mortgage approvals and house price data. While from NZ we see business confidence data on Wednesday.
The current interbank midrate is:    NZDGBP 0.5252    GBPNZD 1.9040

The interbank range this week has been:    NZDGBP 0.5158 - 0.5263    GBPNZD 1.9001 - 1.9387
Tuesday 23rd July 3:00PM (NZT)
This pair has traded a relatively small range throughout the course of the last week. There were some sharp moves within that small range, but all of these have lacked any real momentum. This week’s focus comes from the RBNZ monetary policy statement on Thursday, which is then follow by the preliminary release of 2nd quarter GDP in the UK. The RBNZ will hold the cash rate unchanged at its emergency lows of 2.50%, but the accompanying statement will offer valuable insight to possible timing of cash rate hikes that will likely start at some stage in the next six months or so. The UK GDP number sees the forecast of .6% for the quarter, and this comes against the previous quarters .3% increase in activity.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
NZD/GBP 0.5207 0.5050 0.5250 0.5163 - 0.5223
GBP/NZD 1.9205 1.9050 1.9800 1.9146 - 1.9368

Friday 19th July 12.00PM (NZT) - Update
This pair has traded a relatively contained range so far this week. The GBP saw a jump in demand following the BOE monetary policy meeting minutes, but the gains were subsequently reversed just a couple of hours later after it became clear that that QE tapering was not set in concrete at the US Federal Reserve. So the pair remains in an increasingly comfortable .5050-.5250 (1.9050 - 1.9800) range. Direction from here with come from the RBNZ monetary policy statement and preliminary UK GDP data on Thursday next week. Both will be eagerly watched, and materially impact the pricing. Ahead of these expect further range trading within the recent range.
The current interbank midrate is:    NZDGBP 0.5195    GBPNZD 1.9249

The interbank range this week has been:   NZDGBP 0.5133 - 0.5298   GBPNZD 1.8874 - 1.9481
Tuesday 16th July 3:30PM (NZT)
There has been little action in this pair over the last few days as it consolidates around the 0.5150 (1.9417) level. Last week’s attempt over 0.5250 (1.9048) was very short lived and the subsequent pull back into the now well defined range of 0.5000 - 0.5250 (1.9048 - 2.0000) confirms we can expect more sideways action ahead. The big risk on the week is centred around the Bank of England minutes and what information the market can gather from those in relation to new governor Mark Carney's influence. We know he’s got the bank looking at forward guidance, but what the market really wants to know is the impact he will have on voting with regard to more quantitative easing. Is he voting for more QE like his predecessor Mervyn King? This is what the market is expecting so the risk is if he didn’t vote for more QE, the Pound Sterling could find some strength. If this is the case then cross to the NZD could again be testing 0.5000 (2.0000). Before that we get readings on inflation tonight and then on Thursday there is retail sales data.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
NZD/GBP 0.5173 0.5000 0.5250 0.5133 - 0.5298
GBP/NZD 1.9331 1.9050 2.0000 1.8874 - 1.9481

Friday 12th July 2:45PM (NZT) - Update
The NZDGBP traded up to its highs (GBPNZD lows) in the early part of the week. This was as the Pound Sterling came under selling pressure in the wake of very soft readings on industrial and manufacturing production in the UK. The pair traded as high as 0.5298 (low as 1.8875), although levels over 0.5250 (under 1.9048)  didn’t last long and the pair pulled back as the NZD got sold in line with the AUD on the back of weak Chinese trade data. Both the NZD and the GBP made big gains against the USD after the Fed minutes were released, but the GBP has held onto much of its gains while the NZD reversed them all as rumours of a soft Chinese GDP figure next week did the rounds. This outperformance by the GBP has seen the cross back to 0.5170 (1.9342)  and now comfortably back in the broad 0.5000 - 0.5250 (1.9048 - 2.000) range. We have inflation data out of both countries next week, but we also get from the UK  the Bank of England minutes, retail sales, and unemployment data.
The current interbank midrate is:   NZDGBP 0.5175    GBPNZD 1.9324

The interbank range this week has been:  NZDGBP 0.5133 - 0.5298    GBPNZD 1.8874 - 1.9481
Tuesday 9th July 4:00PM (NZT)
Last week proved to be an interesting one for this pair. New BOE Governor Carney made his mark with his first monetary policy announcement. Unusually there was an accompanying statement, with it’s clear intent to reverse the recent move higher in the interest rate market. An intended consequence of the pushing down of interest rate expectation is to undermine demand for the GBP. Following the statement, the recently buoyant GBP has come under renewed pressure. Today’s positive NZ business opinion survey is the NZ highlight for the week, with UK manufacturing and trade numbers proving this week’s focus in the UK. The push lower from the GBP has been curtailed by the .5250 (1.9050) level for the time being. It seems that further GBP underperformance will require a concerted effort from those looking to push it lower from current levels against the NZ dollar. Certainly the issues in China, and weak news from Australia are likely to temper any major increased demand for the NZD in the short term at least.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
NZD/GBP 0.5220 0.5050 0.5250 0.5063 - 0.5253
GBP/NZD 1.9157 1.9050 1.9800 1.9037 - 1.9753

Friday 5th July 2:45PM (NZT) - Update
This pairing has spent a number of weeks trading with the now familiar 0.5000 - 0.5200 (1.9230- 2.000) range. A lot of that time has been in the lower part of the range and the pair tested support at 0.5000 (resistance 2.000) on a number of occasions. As a result of the Bank of England (BOE) rate decision last night the NZD now finds itself testing the top of its recent range. The GBP has come under good selling pressure as a result of the BOE announcement, and the NZDGBP cross has traded as high as 0.5217 (low as 1.9168). The pair could easily head a little higher with key upside resistance coming in around 0.5250 (support 1.9050) but I suspect that will cap it in the near term. US employment data tonight could easily create some volatility, however until we see a sustained break of either 0.5000 (2.0000) or 0.5250 (1.9050), look for more sideways action within that range.
The current interbank midrate is:    NZDGBP 0.5193    GBPNZD 1.9257

The interbank range this week has been: NZDGBP 0.5063 - 0.5217 GBPNZD 1.1968 - 1.9753
Tuesday 2nd July 3:00PM (NZT)
This pairing has consolidated its recent move over the last week. The NZ dollar remains vulnerable to bouts of pressure, but seems to have established a base for the time being at .5000 (2.0000). This .5000/.5200 (1.9230/2.000) range is where the pair comfortably spend the second half of 2012. This week’s focus comes from the UK, in the absence of any material NZ economic news due for release. Overnight the latest manufacturing numbers surprised to the upside, and these come ahead of the latest construction and services numbers due midweek. The Bank of England’s monetary policy announcement on Thursday should off little surprise. But with new Governor Carney at the helm, it will be closely watched. Expect further range trading from this pair in the absence of any surprises. The grinding appreciation from the NZD can be expected ahead of the US employment numbers on Friday, with the USD demand currently being a primary driver in the wider markets.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
NZD/GBP 0.5125 0.5000 0.5200 0.4999 - 0.5146
GBP/NZD 1.9512 1.9230 2.0000 1.9433 - 2.0004

Friday 28th June 3:15PM (NZT) - Update
The first half of this week saw the NZDGBP cross trading sideways in a tight range just above key support at 0.5000 (2.0000). Over the second half of the week the NZD has materially outperformed the GBP, which has seen this pair recover to trade back over 0.5100 (under 1.9608). With immediate pressure taken off support at 0.5000 (2.0000), we can expect more range trading with any further strength running into resistance between 0.5200-05250 (1.9231 -1.9048). The focus next week will be on UK data with readings on the manufacturing, construction, and service sectors, ahead of the Bank of England rate decision due Thursday.
The current interbank midrate is:    NZDGBP 0.5114    GBPNZD 1.9554

The interbank range this week has been:   NZDGBP 0.4993 - 0.5144   GBPNZD 1.9441 - 2.0030
Tuesday 25th June 3:20PM (NZT)
A combination of the Fed announcement and weaker New Zealand GDP saw this pair trade down to key support around 0.5000 (2.0000) late last week. So far that support has contained the downside but there has been little in the way of a meaningful bounce. The pair has traded a tight range with 0.5050 (1.9800) capping any upside pressure. As long as that is the case, further tests of support at 0.5000 (2.0000) seem likely. If we see a sustained move below that support level, then the next target will be 0.4750. However, the more likely scenario is a move back above 0.5050 (1.9800) that will see the immediate downside pressure relieved. That will signal the pair is comfortable trading within the broader 0.5000 -0.5200 range for the time being.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
NZD/GBP 0.5016 0.5000 0.5200 0.4989 - 0.5144
GBP/NZD 1.9936 2.0000 1.9231 1.9441 - 2.0045

Friday 21st June 3:45PM (NZT) - Update
The NZDGBP spent the first part of the week in directionless trade around the 0.5100 (1.9608) level as the market awaited key data. The US announcement saw the pair trade down a touch as the New Zealand dollar got sold harder than the Pound Sterling. But the real move lower has come in the last 24 hours on the back of a combination of weaker than expected GDP out of New Zealand, and stronger than expected retail sales out of the UK. The pair briefly traded down below 0.5000 (2.0000) although support around there continues to contain the downside for now. Although my baseline scenario is for this pair to spend some time ranging between 0.5000 - 0.5250 (2.000 - 1.9048), the last couple of days have increased the risk that support at 0.5000 (2.0000) gives way and we see further downside. At a minimum we should see further tests of the 0.5000 (2.0000) level.
The current interbank midrate is:    NZDGBP 0.5015    GBPNZD 1.9940

The interbank range this week has been:   NZDGBP 0.4989 - 0.5161   GBPNZD 1.9376 - 2.0045
Tuesday 18th June 3:30PM (NZT)
The Pound Sterling has remained reasonably well supported recently and movements in this pair have been driven by direction in the New Zealand dollar. As the NZD recovered from recent lows early last week, so did this pair, eventually trading back up over 0.5150 (under GBPNZD 1.9417) for a time. Weakness in the NZD overnight however has seen the cross back below 0.5100 (above 1.9608) where is currently trades. There has been nothing to suggest a change in the view that this pair will look to spend some time consolidating recent losses, while range trading between 0.5000 (2.0000) and 0.5250 (1.9048). Risks to that scenario would come from weaker data out of the UK this week in the form of inflation and retail sales. However the recent trend has been for firm data and that is expected to continue.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
NZD/GBP 0.5085 0.5000 0.5250 0.4993 - 0.5187
GBP/NZD 1.9666 2.0000 1.9231 1.9280 - 2.0028
 
Friday 14th June 3:15PM (NZT) - Update
With the New Zealand dollar under pressure early in the week, the cross rate to the Pound Sterling had a brief test below 0.5000 (GBPNZD 2.0000). It didn’t last long however and the pair has recovered back up over 0.5100 (1.9608). There is lots of support between 0.5000 (2.0000) and 0.5050 (1.9800) and I suspect that area will contain the down side for some time. The pair has had a quick move in the last two weeks, down from 0.5370 (up from 1.8622),  to just below 0.5000 (2.000). A period of consolidation between 0.5000 (2.0000) and 0.5250 (1.9047) now seems likely. There is notable data out of both countries next week along with the G8 meeting to focus on.
The current interbank midrate is:    NZDGBP 0.5135    GBPNZD 1.9474

The interbank range this week has been:   NZDGBP 0.4993 - 0.5160   GBPNZD 1.9380 - 2.0028
Tuesday 11th June 3:20PM (NZT)
The recent run of better data out of the UK has seen the value of the New Zealand dollar versus the Pound Sterling remain under pressure. Expected support around 0.5050 (1.9802) emerged on a test of that level yesterday and has so far contained the downside.  Further losses should prove harder going for now as the pair looks to consolidate its recent move. I expect a range of 0.5050 -0.5250 (1.9802 - 1.9047) to contain trading for much of this week. A sustained move below 0.5050 (above 1.9802), would be a very weak signal and warn of further losses to come. UK employment data will be closely watched this week as will an estimate of May GDP. For NZ the focus will be on the RBNZ rate decision, with an expected no change outcome on Thursday.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
NZD/GBP 0.5062 0.5050 0.5250 0.5042 - 0.5291
GBP/NZD 1.9755 1.9802 1.9047 1.8900 - 1.9833

Friday 7th June 5:15PM (NZT) - Update
Continued better UK economic data has seen the GBP outperform the NZD all week. Along with a better outlook for the UK, the NZD has been weighed down by a weak AUD and soft global stock markets. This has seen the recent pullback in the cross accelerate over the last couple of days and the pair now trades just above 0.5100. The current momentum could see a test of 0.5050 in the near term where I would expect it to find some support. There has certainly been a lot of interest to buy NZD against the GBP in the last two days as a result of this move and I expect that to continue. A lot of people sat on the side-lines and watched the cross trade all the way up to 0.5640. This move lower has drawn them out to cover exposures. We are now back to levels not seen since early January. I expect a range of 0.5050 to 0.5250 to dominate for the near term as the pair consolidates this recent move lower.
The current interbank midrate is:    NZDGBP 0.5105    GBPNZD 1.9589

The interbank range this week has been:   NZDGBP 0.5116 - 0.5291   GBPNZD 1.8900 - 1.9545
Tuesday 4th June 4:50PM (NZT)
The NZD headed lower against the GBP late last week on the back of an improvement in UK data. That trend continued last night with better than expected figures on UK manufacturing. This has seen the cross rate pullback to trade below support 0.5250 (above 1.9047). It has since recovered to trade just through that level at the time of writing. With little in the way of NZ data this week the focus will again be on UK releases, of which there are plenty. The most notable will be data on the construction and service sectors, ahead of the Bank of England (BOE) monetary policy decision. If this week’s economic figures continue to show improvement, we can look for the pair to move back into the middle of the 0.5000 -0.5250 (1.9047 - 2.000) range that contained it for the second half of 2012.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
NZD/GBP 0.5255 0.5200 0.5400 0.5214 - 0.5390
GBP/NZD 1.9029 1.8518 1.9230 1.8553 - 1.9179

Friday 31st May 2:25PM (NZT) - Update
After trading a familiar range around 0.5350 (1.8690) for much of the week the NZDGBP has headed lower overnight to test just below 0.5300 (above 1.8870). It seems both the GBP and EUR outperformed the NZD last night. This is as a result of better consumer confidence figures out of the UK, and comes on top of stronger inflation readings out of Germany. There is more data out in the UK tonight in the form of mortgage approvals and consumer credit. If these print strong the NZDGBP could continue this pull back and test support at 0.5250 (resistance 1.9050). That is a key level. A sustained move below 0.5250 (1.9050) will see it back into the well worn range of 0.5000 - 0.5250 (1.9050 - 2.000) that contained trading for the second half of 2012.
The current interbank midrate is:    NZDGBP 0.5310    GBPNZD 1.8832

The interbank range this week has been:    NZDGBP 0.5294 - 0.5410    GBPNZD 1.8484 - 1.8889
Tuesday 28th May 4:50PM (NZT)
This pair seems comfortable trading around 0.5350 (1.8690) at the moment, in what has been a quiet few days thanks to a US and UK holiday on Monday. Somewhat disappointing data from the UK last week put an end to recent GBP outperformance, and saw the NZD bounce from its low of 0.5309 (1.8835). We have had some strong UK house price data so far this week. If consumer confidence and mortgage data later in the week print strong, we could see a test back toward 0.5300 (1.8870). The flipside will see a move back up to 0.5400 (1.8520) on weaker data.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
NZD/GBP .5353 .5250 .5480 .5333 - .5405
GBP/NZD 1.8681 1.8250 1.9050 1.8501 - 1.8750

Friday 24th May 3:00PM (NZT) - Update
With UK data this week a touch disappointing the GBP seems to have ended is outperformance against the NZD. The week’s lows were seen on Monday, and since then the NZD has slowly been gaining ground. A move up to resistance around 0.5440 could easily be on the cards if the turnaround in UK data continues next week. For the time being expect buyers to emerge and provide plenty of support on any move back down toward 0.5300 (above 1.8870).
The current interbank midrate is:    NZDGBP .5360    GBPNZD 1.8657

The interbank range this week has been:    NZDGBP .5309 - .5405    GBPNZD 1.8501 - 1.8836
Tuesday 21st May 3:50PM (NZT)
This week provides a good opportunity for the GBP to continue its recent outperformance with plenty of scheduled economic releases. These will be key to the near term direction for the GBP. The Bank of England (BOE) will be hoping for the data to confirm the improved outlook Governor King recently spoke about. After trading down to just above 0.5300 (below 1.8870) late last week, the NZDGBP cross has put in a small bounce to currently trading around 0.5360 (1.8660). Topside resistance comes in at 0.5440 (support 1.8380) and as long as the pair holds below there, the scope is for further pressure on the NZD from the resurgent GBP. Support around 0.5250 (resistance 1.9050) provides the initial target for further NZD under performance.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
NZD/GBP .5363 .5250 .5480 .5309 - .5422
GBP/NZD 1.8646 1.8240 1.9050 1.8443 - 1.8836

Friday 17th May 4:40PM (NZT) - Update
The GBP has continued to outperform the NZD this week with an improved UK economic outlook underscoring demand for GBP. Topside resistance at 0.5480 (support 1.8250) was never tested this week, as the NZD downside remained in play. After spending a couple of days trading sideways around 0.5400 (1.8520), the pair has now made a sustained move lower trading 0.5315 (1.8810) as I write this. The target from here will be 0.5250 (1.9050) initially. There is a lot of data out next week for the UK. More positive readings could see this pair trading back in the 0.5000 -0.5250 ( 1.9050 - 2.0000) range that contained it for the second half of 2012.
The current interbank midrate is:   NZDGBP .5316    GBPNZD 1.8811

The interbank range this week has been:  NZDGBP .5315 - .5422   GBPNZD 1.8444 - 1.8813
Tuesday 14th May 3:15PM (NZT)
The broad correction lower for the NZD against the GBP is continuing, although with slowing momentum. The recently improved UK data has helped the GBP outperform the NZD during this bout of USD strength. This has seen the pair move to trade around 0.5400 (1.8520). While the pair consolidates below 0.5480 (above1.8250), the focus remains on the downside for the NZ dollar. A sustained move through the .5400(1.8520) level would leave the NZD looking vulnerable. The target in that case would be 0.5250 (1.9050). UK employment data and the Bank of England inflation report should provide the lead for the pair this week.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
NZD/GBP .5408 .5280 .5480 .5384 - .5481
GBP/NZD 1.8491 1.8250 1.8940 1.8245 - 1.8575

Friday 10th May 2:40PM (NZT) - Update
There has been some volatile trade for the NZD crosses this week, and the NZDGBP is no exception. It started the week around 0.5480 (1.8250) and slowly drifted lower. The downside action accelerated after Governor Wheeler’s comments about FX intervention, and the pair briefly traded below 0.5400 (above 1.8520). NZ employment numbers saw a sharp recovery back towards 0.5440 (1.8350) , and it has mostly traded a contained range since .All this action hasn’t changed the broader picture which is one of an ongoing pull back from recent highs around 0.5600 (lows 1.7860) made in early April. As long as the pair holds below 0.5480 (above 1.8250) I would still favour further tests of the downside.
The current interbank midrate is:    NZDGBP .5428    GBPNZD 1.8423

The interbank range this week has been:    NZDGBP .5389 - .5489    GBPNZD 1.8220 - 1.7556
Tuesday 7th May 5:15PM (NZT)
The broad corrective pullback in this cross is still in play with tests of the downside the current focus. Somewhat stronger than expected data out of the UK recently is driving this move and this week sees more economic releases to keep and eye on. After bouncing off lows around 0.5440 (1.8380), the currency pair has so far failed to sustain any moves above 0.5480 (1.8250) and that keeps the downside in favour. With plenty of data out in both NZ and the UK this week, it could be a defining few days for this pair. If continued better than expected UK data is backed up by poor NZ unemployment figures, the downside could really open up. In that scenario at test of 0.5250(1.9050) could be on the cards. However, if UK data starts to disappoint again and NZ unemployment is around expectation, we can look forward to a move back to 0.5550(1.8020). The BOE rate decision on Thursday should have little impact as it’s almost certainly going to be no change, with no accompanying statement. We have to wait two weeks for the minutes to be published to get any insight into their thinking.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
NZD/GBP 0.5464 0.5400 0.5600 0.5440 - 0.5533
GBP/NZD 1.8302 1.7860 1.8520 1.8075 - 1.8380
 
Friday 3rd May 2:20PM (NZT) - Update
The GBP has spent the week gaining ground against the NZD thanks to a raft of better than expected data out of the UK. With this cross at very elevated levels there is plenty of room for a correction to the downside (upside GBPNZD). Initial support around 0.5480 (1.8250) was broken and at this point has not been regained. This leaves the NZD downside still in focus. Along with NZ employment figures next week, there is a raft of UK releases as well as the Bank of England rate decision. If UK data continues to surprise to the upside expect this pair to lose more ground. The next key level will be support around 0.5400 (1.8520).
The current interbank midrate is:    NZDGBP .5475    GBPNZD 1.8265

The interbank range this week has been:    NZDGBP .5439 - .5533    GBPNZD 1.8075 - 1.8385
Tuesday 30th April 4:15PM (NZT)
Strength in the NZD this past week has been outperformed by the GBP which is holding onto gains made after the stronger than expected GDP number last Thursday. This has seen the currency pair consolidating above 0.5500 (1.8181) after retreating from recent highs at 0.5628 (1.7768) in the middle of the month. Dips below 0.5500 (1.8181) are finding support, and as long as this continues the upside is still the main focus. Be wary of a move below 0.5480 (1.8248) however, as this could signal the start of a much deeper correction although it’s hard to see what might spark such a move in the near term with a lack of key data out of either country this week.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
NZD/GBP .5526 .5400 .5600 .5474 - .5575
GBP/NZD 1.8096 1.7860 1.8520 1.7937 - 1.8268

Friday 19th April 4:02PM (NZT) - Update
It has been a volatile week for this pairing. The NZ dollar saw increased demand following the seemingly benign RBNZ monetary policy announcement. This increased demand was broad based, and was only curbed by the better than expected first quarter growth numbers in the UK yesterday. So the pair finds itself back at increasingly comfortable and familiar levels. Most to focus will come from UK economic news next week, with manufacturing, construction and services data to hold attention.
The current interbank midrate is:    NZDGBP .5510    GBPNZD 1.8149

The interbank range this week has been:    NZDGBP .5486 - .5574    GBPNZD 1.7940 - 1.8228
Tuesday 23rd April 6:15PM (NZT)
This pair has continued to trade within its recent and increasingly familiar range over the last week. Today’s weak Chinese manufacturing number has further exposed the recent air of vulnerability to the NZ dollar, and the pair is currently at the NZD lows for the last seven days. This week sees the focus initially come from tomorrow’s RBNZ monetary policy statement ahead of the preliminary 1st quarter UK GDP number on Thursday. Yield chasing investor flows should support the NZ dollar on any material dips. It looks likely the pair will continue to move around within its broader .5400 - .5600 (1.78560 – 1.8520) range in the coming weeks.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
NZD/GBP .5499 .5400 .5600 .5486 - .5559
GBP/NZD 1.8185 1.7860 1.8520 1.7989 - 1.8228

Friday 19th April 4:02PM (NZT) - Update
The Pound Sterling has finally been able to push the NZ dollar a little back from the pairs recent record highs this week. The increased risk aversion in the wider market enabled the subtle pressure. The initial support at the .5500 (resistance 1.8180) is providing the base for the NZ dollar for the time being, but any further increase in uncertainly within the wider market would likely see the pair consolidate through this level. Next week should prove interesting and may provide a lead for this pair in the coming weeks. The RBNZ monetary policy statement on Wednesday comes ahead of the crucial first quarter GDP release in the UK on Thursday. It would surprise to see the pair break out of the wider .5400 - .5600 (1.7860 - 1.8520) range in the coming week.
The current interbank midrate is:    NZDGBP .5514    GBPNZD 1.8136

The interbank range this week has been:    NZDGBP .5489 - .5590    GBPNZD 1.7889 - 1.8215
Tuesday 16th April 4:42PM (NZT)
The widespread demand for the NZ dollar drove it to record highs against the GBP last week. However these extreme levels could not be sustained as weak US and Chinese economic numbers undermined the wider markets risk appetite. With commodity markets under renewed pressure and elevated risk aversion thanks to the horrible terror events in Boston, expect the pair to consolidate back at the current more comfortable levels in the short term. The respective inflation numbers will provide the data focus for the week, as well as the BOE monetary policy meeting minutes. Targeting levels with orders left in the market is a good way to use the current volatility to lock in rates at opportune levels.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
NZD/GBP .5540 .5400 .5600 .5489 - .5642
GBP/NZD 1.8050 1.7860 1.8520 1.7742 - 1.8218

Friday 12th April 2:02PM (NZT) - Update
Broad based NZD strength has seen the NZD push on to new record levels against the GBP this week. The grind higher has been unrelentingly and comes in the absence of any economic data. The momentum will have to ease at some stage, and needless to say the current levels offer great value buying of GBP with NZ dollars. Further gains for the NZD should prove harder fought from the extreme current levels. Next week will see the primary focus for this pair provided by the respective inflation numbers in the UK and NZ, and BOE monetary policy meeting minutes.
The current interbank midrate is:    NZDGBP .5608    GBPNZD 1.7832

The interbank range this week has been:    NZDGBP .5480 - .5642    GBPNZD 1.7724 - 1.8248
Tuesday 9th April 4:51PM (NZT)
This pairing looks to be establishing itself within a new range around the record high NZ dollar levels. Given the current environment, continued trading at the elevated NZD levels should not be ruled out in the short term at least. The increasing risk aversion in the wider market, coupled with a scramble to buy GBP after the unchanged BOE monetary policy decision, to see the GBP pare a good portion of its initial losses last week. However, this week has seen it under renewed pressure, and immediate direction from current levels remains far from certain. Following today's broadly positive NZIER Business Confidence Survey, the focus for this pair now turns to the UK manufacturing numbers later today in the UK.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
NZD/GBP .5559 .5400 .5600 .5476 - .5582
GBP/NZD 1.7989 1.7860 1.8520 1.7915 - 1.8262

Friday 5th April 4:28PM (NZT) - Update
It has been a strange week for this pair. The NZ dollar saw rumoured re-insurance flows strongly increase demand in Tuesday's offshore session. This saw this pair driven to new record highs, with the only supporting influence being the record dairy prices fetched in the GDT auction. However, the elevated NZD levels were not to last. Following better than expected UK services data, and the unchanged BOE monetary policy decision, covering of sold GBP positions ensued and this demand has seen the pair pushed back to more familiar levels. Wider market influences will likely drive this pair in the coming week, in the absence of top tier economic news in either economy. NZ dollar supply seems tentative in the current environment, so further sharp moves cannot be ruled out for this pair in the short term.
The current interbank midrate is:    NZDGBP .5517    GBPNZD 1.8126

The interbank range this week has been:    NZDGBP .5487 - .5582    GBPNZD 1.7915 - 1.8225
Tuesday 2th April 4:00PM (NZT)
It has been another interesting past week for this pair. The increased Fonterra payout was enough to see the NZD climb to the highs against the GBP, but the NZD gains were not to be sustained. Towards the end of the week, not even the softer GBP data could stop the GBP from taking back some of its lost ground. So the increasingly well established .5350 - .5550 range (1.8020 - 1.8700) remains in place. In the absence of any material NZ economic data this week, the UK news will provide the lead. The manufacturing, housing and construction numbers will provide the focus ahead of what will likely be an unchanged monetary policy decision from the BOE on Thursday. The pair is looking increasing comfortable around current levels.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
NZD/GBP .5505 .5350 .5550 .5487 - .5539
GBP/NZD 1.8165 1.8020 1.8700 1.8054 - 1.8225

Tuesday 26th March 4:10PM (NZT)
The NZ dollar outperformed the Pound Sterling last week. The strong 4th quarter NZ GDP number provided much of the boost after the GBP initially placed some pressure on the NZD. So this pair finds itself back up towards levels that offer great value buying of GBP with NZ dollars. This week will see limited focus in either economy in the absence of any data of note. This means the wider market risk appetite will provide the lead. Any further appreciation for the NZ dollar will prove harder fought from current levels. Next week sees the focus provided by UK news. Manufacturing, services and construction data are joined by the BOE monetary policy announcement.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
NZD/GBP .5496 .5350 .5550 .5423 - .5511
GBP/NZD 1.8195 1.8020 1.8700 1.8146 - 1.8440

Friday 22nd March February 4:15PM (NZT) - Update
It has been an interesting week for this pair. The recent inability of the GBP to weaken further in the light of bad news proved to be a good signal. The improved data this week in the UK, and the uncertainty in Europe, has benefited the GBP. If it were not for the strong NZ GDP number yesterday, coupling the positive Chinese manufacturing data, the NZD would have been pressured towards the lower support levels (higher GBPNZD levels). The NZD rally seen in the London session yesterday set the brief highs for the week. It certainly seems like any further topside moves for the NZD will be very hard fought, with new found resilience creeping into the GBP. Next week is relatively light on economic news in either economy, so expect the wider markets risk appetite to provide the lead for this pair.
The current interbank midrate is:    NZDGBP .5480    GBPNZD 1.8248

The interbank range this week has been:    NZDGBP .5423 - .5504    GBPNZD 1.8169 - 1.8440
Tuesday 19th March 3:58PM (NZT)
The NZD finally saw some sustained pressure from the GBP last week. For the most part, the turnaround came following the RBNZ monetary policy statement. However, demand for the NZD has returned as the instability in Europe has increased and affected the GBP as a negative consequence. Apart from the important 4th quarter NZ GDP numbers on Thursday, much of the focus will come from the UK.  UK inflation, employment and retail sales numbers come alongside the BOE monetary policy meeting minutes. This pair does seem a little more comfortable back from the recent NZD record highs, but repeatedly weak UK data may see the pair move in favour of the NZD once again.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
NZD/GBP .5460 .5350 .5550 .5423 - .5553
GBP/NZD 1.8315 1.8020 1.8700 1.8008 - 1.8440

Friday 15th March February 4:15PM (NZT) - Update
The GBP has finally seen some increased demand against the NZ dollar towards the end of this week. The RBNZ monetary policy statement provided the impetus for the majority of the move. Comments from the BOE chief King overnight also led towards investors who had sold GBP, scramble to buy them back. Whether or not the increased GBP demand can be maintained remains to be seen. Certainly there is little prospect of a jump in the fortunes of the UK economy in the short term. It seems likely that once this current flush out of "sold GBP positions" is complete, NZD demand will increase again. Ironically, even current levels offer pretty good value buying of GBP with NZD. The NZ GDP numbers next week will be the focus in NZ, whilst the busy economic calendar in the UK provides a feast of the latest economic information in the UK.
The current interbank midrate is:    NZDGBP .5435    GBPNZD 1.8399

The interbank range this week has been:    NZDGBP .5435- .5553    GBPNZD 1.8008 - 1.8399
Monday 11th March 4:01PM (NZT)
This pair saw unsurprising price action last week. The NZD remains justifiably at elevated levels against the pressured Pound Sterling. This week should not see material change in sentiment and it points towards on going trade within the recently established .5440 - .5540 (1.8050 - 1.8380) range. The UK manufacturing numbers on Tuesday, and RBNZ monetary policy statement on Thursday will offer increased focus, but the impact on the price action should be limited. Further appreciation from the NZ dollar seems unlikely with the softer Chinese data recently coming to light.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
NZD/GBP .5510 .5350 .5550 .5451 - .5537
GBP/NZD 1.8149 1.8020 1.8690 1.8060 - 1.8345

Friday 8th March February 4:00PM (NZT) - Update
This pair has traded a familiar range this week. The GBP remains under pressure, albeit slightly back from the week's low point, following the unchanged monetary policy decision from the BOE. The strong GDT auction prices saw demand increase for the NZD. Overall the pair has consolidated around the current levels and it looks like any further gains by the NZ dollar will be increasing difficult to produce. The GBP is also unlikely to see demand materially increase in the short term at least and this points towards an extended period of trading around current levels.
The current interbank midrate is:    NZDGBP .5505    GBPNZD 1.8165

The interbank range this week has been:    NZDGBP .5451 - .5537    GBPNZD 1.8060 - 1.8345

Tuesday 5th March 4:53PM (NZT)
This pair has traded a relatively tight range over the last week. Both currencies have seen periods of pressure, but material downside moves could not be sustained for either currency. Expect this rangy trade to continue this week with the focus completely on the UK in the absence of any news in NZ. The GBP has a lot of negative news already priced into it, so any further under performance seems unlikely from the current levels. The BOE meeting will provide the primary focus, albeit no change expected.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
NZD/GBP .5466 .5350 .5550 .5432 - .5497
GBP/NZD 1.8295 1.8020 1.8690 1.8192 - 1.8409

Friday 1st March February 4:33PM (NZT) - Update
The NZ dollar finally found resistance against the GBP after setting new record highs early in the week. These levels were not to last as the wider market risk aversion, and concerns about the dry NZ North Island conditions, undermined demand for the NZD. Certainly the pair seems more comfortable below the lofty highs above the .5500 (above 1.8180 level). Direction from the current levels is less clear, with little in the way of positive news for the GBP expected in the short term. Next week sees the focus come from the UK data in the absence of any NZ economic news. Expect the primary focus to come from Thursdays BOE monetary policy announcement after the bias moved towards further quantitative easing at the previous meeting.
The current interbank midrate is:    NZDGBP .5450    GBPNZD 1.8349

The interbank range this week has been:    NZDGBP .5432 - .5562    GBPNZD 1.7979 - 1.8409
Tuesday 26th February 3:53PM (NZT)
The recent pressure on the GBP has continued throughout the last week. Yet again, the NZD recorded fresh highs against the GBP. At the current extended levels, any further gains from the NZD seem unlikely, with a very negative economic picture already priced into the GBP. Expect the focus to come predominantly from the UK this week, with the BOE inflation report offering another opportunity for comments maintaining pressure on the GBP. In NZ, Thursday’s business confidence number will be watched, but should be of limited impact to the price action.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
NZD/GBP .5500 .5350 .5550 .5440 - .5562
GBP/NZD 1.8180 1.8020 1.8690 1.7979 - 1.8382

Friday 22nd February 4:36PM (NZT)- Update
This pair has traded in a relatively contained range this week. The pair remains close to all time record highs for the NZD against the Pound Sterling. The .5500 (1.8180 support) looks to be solid NZ dollar resistance now, and this should provide a little encouragement for those looking for some kind of GBP resurgence. The respective central banks were crucial to this week's price action and this trend will continue over the coming monetary policy meetings. Obviously, anywhere around current levels offers good value buying of GBP with NZ dollars. Next week will be interesting to see if the global risk aversion that emerged this week continues. If this is the case, the GBP could outperform the NZ dollar, albeit unlikely to be by a large degree in the short term.
The current interbank midrate is:    NZDGBP .5485    GBPNZD 1.8232

The interbank range this week has been:    NZDGBP .5439 - .5507    GBPNZD 1.8159 - 1.8386
Tuesday 19th February 3:50PM (NZT)
The New Zealand dollar made steady gains against the pressured GBP last week. The new all time highs were reached following the bonanza NZ retail sales number. However, the gains were not maintained and Friday's offshore session saw the GBP take back some of its lost ground, even in the face of the weak UK retail sales number. This week is a little more quiet for economic news in both economies. In NZ the speech by RBNZ Governor Wheeler will be closely watched tomorrow. The UK focus comes from Wednesday's employment numbers, and BOE monetary policy meeting minutes. The current levels offer great value buying of GBP with NZD, albeit the prospect maybe on offer for sometime yet. Those looking to move funds from the UK to NZD should consider staggering transfers overtime to opportune better levels at which to enter NZ dollars.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
NZD/GBP .5446 .5300 .5500 .5336 - .5505
GBP/NZD 1.8362 1.8181 1.8870 1.8165 - 1.8741

Friday 15th February 2:36PM (NZT)-Update
The NZ dollar has seen further appreciation against the beleaguered GBP this week. Yet again record high levels by the NZD have been reached. The stimulus for this weeks move have been two fold. A materially weak GBP performance following the BOE's inflation report hearings has coupled with today's impressive NZ retail sales numbers. Short term resistance is now in place around the highs .5505 (support 1.8165), and this will be the target for subsequent NZD strength. As stated earlier in the week, the GBP is likely to remain under pressure in the short term at least. Until a turn around is seen in the UK economy, the NZD should remain at elevated levels. Obviously the current levels constitute all time highs, so patience maybe required for those looking to buy NZD with GBP, although dollar cost averaging is recommended.
The current interbank midrate is: NZDGBP .5482 GBPNZD 1.8235
 
The interbank range this week has been: NZDGBP .5273 - .5505 GBPNZD 1.8165 - 1.8965

Tuesday 12th February 5:50PM (NZT)
The GBP finally saw a reasonable period of demand against the NZ dollar last week. The demand was aided by the weak 4th quarter NZ employment numbers and the GBP saw over two percent appreciation from the highs to the lows towards the end of the week. Unfortunately this GBP gains were not to be maintained as sentiment again moved against the GBP in yesterday’s European session. This week sees the focus predominantly based in the UK with the latest inflation and retail sales numbers due. The sole focus in NZ will be on Thursday's 4th quarter retail sales number. Until we get improved economic growth numbers in the UK, the NZD will likely remained in the current elevated range by default.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
NZD/GBP .5335 .5200 .5400 .5273 - .5405
GBP/NZD 1.8744 1.8520 1.9230 1.8501 - 1.8965

Friday 8th February 2:36PM (NZT)
The NZD hit all times highs against the beleaguered Pound Sterling earlier this week. Since then we have seen an overdue resurgence from the GBP. The renewed demand for GBP , has coincided with the weak NZ employment numbers and this has ensured a relatively smooth and quick pull back from the NZD highs. Direction from the current levels is less clear, but certainly if the supply continues for the NZ dollar, the .5250 (1.9050 level) could come under some pressure in the near term. Next week sees just the 4th quarter retail sales number for focus in NZ. In the UK, the latest inflation figures will be closely watched, along with associated comments from outgoing Governor King. UK retail sales data on Friday will round out the week.  It seems the NZD selling will likely slow after a reasonably sharp fall, and a consolidation period seems likely.
 
The current interbank midrate is:                                             NZDGBP .5302                       GBPNZD 1.8861
                                                                                         
The range so far this week to date has been:  NZDGBP .5289 - .5409      GBPNZD 1.8488 – 1.8907
Tuesday 5th February 6:10PM (NZT)
The last week has seen the NZD continue to travel at elevated levels over the GBP. Following the RBNZ monetary policy announcement, the NZD saw increased demand and this pushed it to its highs against the GBP. However, with the reversal of the positive sentiment in the wider market in yesterday’s offshore session, the NZD has materially fallen from its highs. The current levels still offer very good levels at which to buy GBP with NZ dollars. This week sees a busy calendar in the UK, and the important NZ employment numbers on Thursday that will be of focus.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
NZD/GBP .5344 .5200 .5400 .5260 - .5409
GBP/NZD 1.8713 1.8520 1.9230 1.8488 - 1.9011

Friday 1st February 4:55PM (NZT)
This pair has seen another choppy week’s trading. The GBP has pushed a little to take back some of its recently lost ground. After some better 2nd tier economic news the in the UK, the GBP saw good demand against the NZD as the RBNZ monetary policy decision approached. However, with the balanced statement accompanying the unchanged decision, NZ dollar soon resumed and this has seen the pair push back towards levels seen early in the week. Next week sees the BOE take center stage, albeit no change expected at this meeting. This announcement and the NZ employment numbers for the 4th quarter will provide the focus next week. Any further appreciation by the NZD will likely prove harder fought, with GBP sentiment appearing to slowly improve.
 
The current interbank midrate is:                                             NZDGBP .5304                       GBPNZD 1.8854
                                                                                         
The interbank range so far this week to date has been:  NZDGBP .5262 - .5328        GBPNZD 1.8769 – 1.9004
Tuesday 29th January 4:55PM (NZT)
The GBP remains under considerable pressure across the board and against the NZ dollar is no exception. The economic data remains weak for the most part, and comments from both the current and incoming BOE Governors are helping maintain the GBP pressure. Expect the pressure to remain on in the short term at least, but any further gains from the NZ dollar with surely prove harder fought than in previous moves higher. With the increased sentiment in Europe, the NZD looks more vulnerable that it has recently and this should help cap further NZD appreciation over the GBP. The focus for the pair will be the RBNZ monetary policy decision on Thursday. The statement accompanying what will be an unchanged cash rate will be closely watched.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
NZD/GBP .5327 .5150 .5350 .5270 - .5330
GBP/NZD 1.8772 1.8700 1.9420 1.8762 - 1.8975

Friday 25th January 1:55PM (NZT)
This week has seen a continuation of the recent trend of NZD outperforming the GBP. Consolidation through the .5250 resistance (1.9050 support) , opened up the way for further GBP underperformance. Certainly the comments from the BOE have not been helpful for GBP sentiment. The .5330 (1.8760) level has capped the NZD appreciation for the being and the pair has seen the NZD give up some ground from that level. Later on today presents near term focus with the 4th quarter UK GDP numbers due for release. Given the recent widespread pressure on the GBP, an strong number could well see the GBP rapidly take back some lost ground. Whatever the result , it is likely that any further appreciation by the NZD would be hard fought from the current levels, which constitute good value buying of GBP with NZD.
 
The current interbank midrate is:                                             NZDGBP .5301                      GBPNZD 1.8864
                                                                                         
The interbank range so far this week to date has been:  NZDGBP .5225 - .5330       GBPNZD 1.8762 – 1.9139

Tuesday 22nd January 3:55PM (NZT)
The Great British Pound remains under pressure across the board and against the NZD is no exception. Once the pair broke and consolidated through resistance at .5250 (1.9050 support) the way was opened for further NZD appreciation. The GBP under performance has been driven by an overflow of  GBP selling against buying of EUR (related to lower structural risk in Europe). This may continue in the short term, and the current levels certainly constitute good value buying of GBP with NZD from a historical perspective. The focus this week is all in the UK with employment data, BOE monetary policy meeting minutes, and the preliminary 4th quarter GDP numbers due for release.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
NZD/GBP .5285 .5100 .5300 .5212 - .5290
GBP/NZD 1.8920 1.8870 1.9600 1.8904 - 1.9186

Tuesday 15th January 4:55PM (NZT)
This pair has moved to the upper end of its wider .5050 - .5250 (lower 1.9050 – 1.9800) range since the new year. It has been dual pressures of stronger NZD demand and increased GBP supply. The GBP has seen pressure from weaker than expected data and supply via pressure buying of EURGBP. From here further ground will be more hard fought for the NZ dollar. The resistance at .5250 (support 1.9050) has proven solid in previous attempts. Inflation numbers in the UK later  today, and in NZ on Friday should provide some ongoing focus. Friday’s UK retail sales will also be watched.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
NZD/GBP .5227 .5050 .5250 .5186 - .5258
GBP/NZD 1.9131 1.9050 1.9800 1.9019 - 1.9282

Friday 21st December 2012 2:10PM (NZT)
The NZD has seen steady pressure from the Pound Sterling this week. The NZD was unable to consolidate at last weeks elevated levels, as demand dried up. The weak NZ Q3 GDP number has aided the most recent weakness, and the pair is back at levels that look to be far more comfortable. The next couple of weeks could see periods of volatility and the holiday period suffers from low  levels of liquidity. If the EURO demand continues , it will provide support for the GBP and this will see the pressure continue on the NZ dollar. Public borrowing and final GDP numbers in the UK will round out the week later on today, but little impact should be expected.
 
The current interbank midrate is:                                                  NZDGBP .5121               AUDGBP 1.9527
                                                                                         
The interbank range so far this week to date has been:                 GBPAUD .5118 - .5237    GBPNZD 1.9095 – 1.9539
Tuesday 18th December 2012 5:10PM (NZT)
The NZ continued to push higher against the GBP last week. It reached the highs at the end of the week and has come back under a little pressure to start this week. Current levels certainly look to offer good value buying of GBP with NZ dollars. The focus from here is mixed between NZ and the UK. UK inflation numbers tonight come ahead of BOE monetary policy meeting minutes tomorrow, retail sales Thursday, and current account Friday. In New Zealand we have current account tomorrow and the belated 3rd quarter GDP numbers on Thursday.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
NZD/GBP .5206 .5050 .5250 .5191 - .5238
GBP/NZD 1.9208 1.9045 1.9800 1.9091 - 1.9264

Tuesday 11th December 2012 3:45PM (NZT)
The NZD outperformed the GBP last week as investors scrambled to cover “sold NZD” positions following the balanced RBNZ monetary policy statement. The pair hit the NZD resistance at .5200 (GBP support 1.9230), and that level has curbed further NZD demand for the time being. Current levels just below that level look to offer good value buying of GBP with NZD. Expect less volatility this week, with just UK employment numbers providing a domestic focus for the pair.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
NZD/GBP .5192 .5000 .5200 .5102 - .5203
GBP/NZD 1.9260 1.9230 2.0000 1.9220 - 1.9600

Monday 3rd December 2012 4:52PM (NZT)
This pair has seen some volatility over the last week, albeit remains in a familiar range. This week will provide further insight, with both respective central banks meeting for policy announcements. UK construction, services and manufacturing numbers provide interest ahead of the central bank policy decisions on Thursday. With no changes expected from wither the BOE or RBNZ, the RBNZ statement will be closely watched (BOE do not release a statement on unchanged decisions). Any hint of an easing would see the NZD under some pressure, however the wider range .5000 – .5200 (1.9230 – 2.0000) will likely remain un broken on the week.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
NZD/GBP .5112 .5000 .5200 .5100 - .5160
GBP/NZD 1.9562 1.9320 2.0000 1.9380 - 1.9608

Tuesday 27th November 2012 4:42PM (NZT)
It was a mixed week for this pairing last week. The continuation of trade within the recent range was unsurprising and will likely push through into this week’s price action. The resurgent EURO has contributed to the GBP’s ability to temper periods of reasonably strong demand for NZ dollars. The final 3rd quarter GDP number in the UK later today provides a focus ahead of NZ business confidence on Thursday. Overall, we can expect further treading of water from the market ahead of the respective central bank decisions next week. It seems likely that the wider NZDGBP range of .5000 - .5200 (GBPNZD 1.230 - 2.000), will continue to provide boundaries for the price action for the remainder of the year at least.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
NZD/GBP .5130 .5000 .5200 .5087 - .5155
GBP/NZD 1.9493 1.9230 2.0000 1.9399 - 1.9658

Tuesday 20th November 2012 3:56 PM (NZT)
This pair remains in a wider, but still very familiar range. The NZ dollar has seen varying demand to provide the movement for the pair. The slump in demand for the NZD following the poor retail sales number last week, proved somewhat temporary. The boosted sentiment on Friday has continued through into this week, and this has seen the scramble to buy back NZ dollars push the pair back up towards last week’s highs. Progress from here is less certain with the pair having done the easy work. Certainly boosting through last week’s highs for the NZD, will require a solid Global Dairy Trade auction later on today. The BOE monetary policy meeting minutes tomorrow provide the focus in the UK, and will be closely watched. Current levels represent pretty fair value for this pair.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
NZD/GBP .5145 .5000 .5200 .5081 - .5165
GBP/NZD 1.9436 1.9230 2.0000 1.9361 - 1.9681

Tuesday 13th November 2012 4:55 PM (NZT)
Last week proved to be quite a volatile one for this pair. After seeing periods of reasonable demand and pushing up to recent highs, the NZ dollar saw a dramatic fall in demand following the US election result and Q3 NZ Employment numbers on Thursday. However the move beyond .5100 (1.9600) proved short lived and the NZ dollar has seen grinding appreciation since its low was reached. The pair currently finds itself right on NZD resistance at .5150 (GBP support 1.9420), and immediate direction is unclear. For the most part this week’s lead will come from the UK, and its flurry of top tier economic news. The pair remains stuck well within its wider .5000 - .5200 (1.9230 – 2.000) range that has been in place for almost three months now.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
NZD/GBP .5148 .5000 .5200 .5085 - .5187
GBP/NZD 1.9425 1.9230 2.0000 1.9279 -1.9666

Entries previous to this have been deleted as there are time sensitive and lose value as time progresses. Please refer to our charts page for price action on a historical basis. The chart page can be seen here : http://www.directfx.co.nz/CurrencyChart.html