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NZD to EURO Exchange Rate

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When converting New Zealand dollars (NZD) to EURO or EURO to NZD, by exchanging via Direct FX, you will save a significant amount of money. Our wholesale currency exchange rates for money transfers are significantly more competitive than bank foreign exchange rates. Being Australasian based, we specialise in knowing what drives NZD and EURO currency conversion rates.

NZD to EURO Overview:The NZD is regarded as a "growth currency", and will therefore generally appreciate when the global economic outlook is positive. Whilst he EURO encompasses is a melting pot of countries, its overall performance is heavily driven by the economic fortunes of Germany, and its manufacturing base. Whilst the economies of New Zealand and the Euro zone individually have little in common, the NZD to EURO exchange rate remains a relatively stable one, when compared to others. The EURO will be interesting to watch as it challenges the USD as the global reserve currency.
 
Historical Ranges: 1 year  5 years 10 years 
NZD/EURO .6217 - .6880 .5216 - .7206 .3875 - .7206
EURO/NZD 1.4533 - 1.6086 1.3878 - 1.9172 1.3878 - 2.5820

Current Official Cash Rates:
Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ): 1.75%         European Central Bank (ECB): -0.30%

NZD EURO Weekly Updates:                                                                               Back to FX Updates
Friday 20th October 3:00pm(NZT)
We have seen a sharp move lower in this pair over the past 24 hours, largely driven by weakness in the New Zealand dollar on the back of the NZ First / Labour coalition. Markets don’t like uncertainty, and a change of government has plenty of that. The NZDEUR fell from a high yesterday of 0.6074, to a low so far of 0.5923. That’s the lowest level since May. While the bulk of the declines have probably now been seen, the risks remain toward further tests of the downside. There is support just below the overnight low around 0.5910, then again at 0.5840. That latter level should provide a floor for any further weakness and it may in fact be a step too far for the pair in the near term. We also need to be aware that Labour's spending promises during the election were significant. If they actually manage to enact much of the proposed spending, it would be stimulatory for the economy and supportive of the currency. That’s a story for the long run however, so for the time being look for further tests of the NZD downside.
The current interbank midrate is:    NZDEUR 0.5931    EURNZD 1.6862

The interbank range this week has been:    NZDEUR 0.5923 - 0.6110    EURNZD 1.6366 - 1.6883
Tuesday 17th October 4:30pm(NZT)

The New Zealand dollar has performed well against the Euro, now at 0.6090 as the EUR suffers from the Catalan problem. The NZD has been as high as 0.6115 and has potential to revisit this level later in the week.

  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
NZD/EURO 0.6087 0.5950 0.6170 0.5967 - 0.6100
EURO/NZD 1.6427 1.6207 1.6807 1.6393 - 1.6760

Friday 13th October 3:30pm(NZT)
Currently at 0.6024 against the Euro, the New Zealand dollar has recovered from an overnight low of 0.5973 after ECB head Draghi’s comments and firmer NZD against the USD...NZ political scene should prevent trades above 0.6050 heading into next week.
The current interbank midrate is:    NZDEUR 0.60120    EURNZD 1.6612

The interbank range this week has been:    NZDEUR 0.5967 - 0.6081    EURNZD 1.6444 - 1.6760
Tuesday 10th October 4:00pm(NZT)

The NZD opens lower at 0.6015 as the Euro rises on better data and easing of the Catalan problem. Once the NZ political situation is clearer we should see the New Zealand dollar strengthen on this cross, but the next few days should see the softer NZD continue.

  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
NZD/EURO 0.6007 0.5930 0.6100 0.6011 - 0.6138
EURO/NZD 1.6647 1.6393 1.6863 1.6293 - 1.6635

Friday 6th October 3:30pm(NZT)
The softer dairy prices did not help the New Zealand dollar against the Euro this week. It is now at 0.6070 and the NZD has gradually drifted lower over the last few days. ECB comments over EUR appreciation should help the NZD on this cross, but it’s still looking for clear direction. Political uncertainty will keep some check on the NZD out into next week.
The current interbank midrate is:    NZDEUR 0.6068    EURNZD 1.6479

The interbank range this week has been:    NZDEUR 0.6067 - 0.6143    EURNZD 1.6279 - 1.6482
Tuesday 3rd October 4:30pm(NZT)

The EUR rally looks done as markets reassess how the Spanish Catalan referendum will play out and just how negative it will be for the EUR. Now at 0.6130 the NZD on this cross looks favoured and we look for a push on to the 0.6150/70 level especially if dairy auction results are positive. However political uncertainty will keep some check on the NZD.

  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
NZD/EURO 0.6130 0.5930 0.6170 0.6100 - 0.6151
EURO/NZD 1.6314 1.6207 1.6863 1.6259 - 1.6394

Friday 29th September 4:30pm(NZT)
Now at 0.6124 as the New Zealand dollar marks time vs the Euro. Election worries affect both parties on this cross but overall we look for the NZD to grind higher towards 0.6150 early next week.
The current interbank midrate is:    NZDEUR 0.6122    EURNZD 1.6336

The interbank range this week has been:    NZDEUR 0.6079 - 0.6165    EURNZD 1.6220 - 1.6451
Tuesday 26th September 5:30pm(NZT)

The NZD is now at 0.6110 vs the Euro and has continued to slowly drift higher. With some Eurozone data starting to look flat the NZD may have further to go on this cross. Immediate resistance is at 0.6140.

  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
NZD/EURO 0.6106 0.5930 0.6170 0.6066 - 0.6190
EURO/NZD 1.6377 1.6207 1.6863 1.6155 - 1.6486

Friday 22nd September 4:00pm(NZT)
Now trading around 0.6100 buoyed by better New Zealand dollar performance overnight, election issues aside, we still favour the NZD on this cross as the ECB continues to hold off on stimulus reduction.
The current interbank midrate is:    NZDEUR 0.6096    EURNZD 1.6405

The interbank range this week has been:    NZDEUR 0.6066 - 0.6190    EURNZD 1.6155 - 1.6486
Friday 15th September 4:00pm(NZT)
Now at 0.6064 with the New Zealand dollar is looking a bit tied and flat vs the Euro. There is still no clear direction, but with ECB talking now stimulus reduction pressure looks to the downside.
The current interbank midrate is:    NZDEUR 0.6067    EURNZD 1.6482

The interbank range this week has been:    NZDEUR 0.6015 - 0.6122    EURNZD 1.6334 - 1.6624
Tuesday 12th September 4:00pm(NZT)

This pair now trades at 0.6062 with the New Zealand dollar higher after comments from the ECB officials sounding a warning over EUR strength. NZD now has potential to push higher towards 0.6100 in the short term as the EUR moderates further.

  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
NZD/EURO 0.6045 0.5930 0.6150 0.5992 - 0.6092
EURO/NZD 1.6542 1.6260 1.6863 1.6414 - 1.6688

Friday 8th September 4:00pm(NZT)
Choppy trading on this cross, with the New Zealand dollar now at 0.6040 after bouncing around in a 0.5993-0.6094 range vs the Euro over the week. Election jitters are likely to push the NZD lower on this cross...look for another visit to the 0.6000 region next week.
The current interbank midrate is:    NZDEUR 0.6645    EURNZD 1.5049

The interbank range this week has been:    NZDEUR 0.5992 - 0.6092    EURNZD 1.6414 - 1.6688
Tuesday 5th September 4:00pm(NZT)

The firmer Euro has hit the this cross with the New Zealand dollar at a low 0.5998 on Friday, now back at 0.6020 but look for another probe to the 0.6000 mark and has the potential to move lower to the 0.5970 region.

  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
NZD/EURO 0.6020 0.5930 0.6100 0.6010 - 0.6076
EURO/NZD 1.6613 1.6393 1.6863 1.6458 - 1.6640

Friday 1st September 4:00pm(NZT)
The New Zealand dollar has weakened back to the 0.6032 level vs the Euro and has been as low as 0.6010 earlier in the week. Given the underlying EUR strength we favour a move to 0.6000 next week with potential to extend into the 0.5970 region.
The current interbank midrate is:    NZDEUR 0.6025    EURNZD 1.6597

The interbank range this week has been:    NZDEUR 0.6010 - 0.6128    EURNZD 1.6318 - 1.6640
Tuesday 29th August 4:30pm(NZT)

The New Zealand dollar has been knocked back against the Euro after the Draghi speech last Friday. It is now at 0.6050 up from a 15 month low at 0.6030 earlier today. It looks steady for the moment but with further upside for the EUR against the USD, look for this cross to test 0.6000 immediate support later in the week. The trend is to the downside and so far there is no signal to the contrary.

  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
NZD/EURO 0.6034 0.5930 0.6170 0.6030 - 0.6207
EURO/NZD 1.6572 1.6207 1.6863 1.6110 - 1.6584

Friday 25th August 3:30pm(NZT)
The New Zealand dollar is now trading at 0.6118 vs the Euro. The pair has been knocked around by combination of a firmer EUR and weaker NZD this week. A hawkish tone from ECB head Draghi tonight may see the EUR push higher but we are already trading around 14 month highs.
The current interbank midrate is:    NZDEUR 0.6116    EURNZD 1.6351

The interbank range this week has been:    NZDEUR 0.6096 - 0.6242    EURNZD 1.7525 - 1.7793
Tuesday 22nd August 3:30pm(NZT)

The New Zealand dollar still holds above 0.6200 EUR, now at 0.6204 but any comments from ECB president Draghi at Jackson Hole may pressure the NZD. Ahead of that, over the next 3 days should hold at current levels 0.6235 should cap upside.

  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
NZD/EURO 0.6200 0.6160 0.5755 0.6156 - 0.6250
EURO/NZD 1.6130 1.7377 1.7762 1.6000 - 1.6245
 
Friday 18th August 3:30pm(NZT)
The New Zealand dollar has rallied over the Euro 0.6200 level after the more dovish ECB comments overnight. It is now at 0.6213 and should push on to retest 0.6257 next week.
The current interbank midrate is:    NZDEUR 0.6209    EURNZD 1.6106

The interbank range this week has been:    NZDEUR 0.6156 - 0.6250    EURNZD 1.6000 - 1.6245
Tuesday 15th August 3:30pm(NZT)

The New Zealand dollar opens the week marginally firmer on the Euro as risk-off sentiment increases. Now at 0.6194 with immediate resistance at 0.6205 it is EU data dependent currently and could see a move back to the 0.6160/70 level over the next few days.

  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
NZD/EURO 0.6200 0.6160 0.6210 0.6163 - 0.6263
EURO/NZD 1.6128 1.6103 1.6233 1.5966 - 1.6227

Friday 11th August 3:00pm(NZT)
The New Zealand dollar has softened considerably against the Euro and is now at 0.6180. The move has mainly been on the back of the RBNZ but better Eurozone data has also helped. Although the trend is firmly to the downside for now, there is support around 0.6160 that has so far contained the weakness. That level also represents the previous low from back in mid-May. Those looking to transfer EUR to NZD should view the current level as good value and we recommend transacting at market.
The current interbank midrate is:    NZDEUR 0.6167    EURNZD 1.6215

The interbank range this week has been:    NZDEUR 0.6163 - 0.6312    EURNZD 1.5843 - 1.6227
Tuesday 8th August 4:00pm(NZT)

The New Zealand dollar opens the week softer against the Euro at 0.6228 after a high of 0.6407 yesterday. The NZD remains vulnerable on this cross and we look for a test of 0.6210 over the next few days.

  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
NZD/EURO 0.6225 0.6210 0.6430 0.6226 - 0.6357
EURO/NZD 1.6064 1.5552 1.6103 1.5732 - 1.6061

Friday 4th August 3:00pm(NZT)
The Euro has continued to gain ground against the New Zealand dollar on this cross. It is now at 0.6260 after 0.6365 high on Tuesday. The last couple of days have seen consolidation around current levels as softer Eurozone data holds EUR gains, however we look for 0.6200 to be tested next week as EUR strength resumes on this cross. If we do see weakness toward the 0.6200 in the coming days it would provide a good opportunity for those looking to convert EUR to NZD.
The current interbank midrate is:    NZDEUR 0.6256    EURNZD 1.5984

The interbank range this week has been:    NZDEUR 0.6239 - 0.6410    EURNZD 1.5600 - 1.6028
Friday 28st July 1:00pm(NZT)
Like most other New Zealand dollar pairings, action in this cross over the past week has really been a by-product of volatility in the wider market. Broad based USD weakness has seen both the NZD and EUR make gains and it’s simply a case that the NZD outperformed during this period volatility. As such I expect that the gains we have seen in the past few days will slowly be unwound. That process looks to have started last night with the cross pulling back from the 0.6437 high to now trade around 0.6410. It could easily drift lower still to the 0.6380 area.
The current interbank midrate is:    NZDEUR 0.6412    EURNZD 1.5596

The interbank range this week has been:    NZDEUR 0.6353 - 0.6437    EURNZD 1.5534 - 1.5741
 
Tuesday 25th July 1:00pm(NZT)

We have seen mostly sideways price action for this pair over the past week. Both the New Zealand dollar and the Euro have seen periods of strength, and while this has caused some volatility in the cross rate, overall there has been no real direction. The market has been bouncing around the 0.6380 level (1.5674) and at this stage it’s hard to see what will break it out of the increasingly tight range. There is little of significance in terms of data releases from NZ this week, and while the European economic calendar looks a little more interesting, it’s still mostly second tier stuff. If the pair does decide to try and move, there is support down around 0.6210 and resistance up at 0.6430 (resistance 1.6103 and support 15552).

  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
NZD/EURO 0.6389 0.6210 0.6430 0.6319 - 0.6406
EURO/NZD 1.5651 1.5552 1.6103 1.5611 - 1.5826

Friday 21th July 1:00pm(NZT)
We have seen volatile price action in this paring over the past week, but overall direction has been somewhat lacking. The New Zealand dollar traded to a low of 0.6319 against the EUR in the wake of Tuesday’s soft NZ inflation data, but it bounced quickly and since then both currencies have seen periods of strength. This has meant the cross rate has chopped back and forth around the 0.6470 level with no real direction. If we had to favour one way or the other it would be the NZD downside, as the EUR may well outperform the local currency over the coming days thanks to Europe's improving economic outlook.
The current interbank midrate is:    NZDEUR 0.6364    EURNZD 1.5712

The interbank range this week has been:    NZDEUR 0.6319 - 0.6430    EURNZD 1.5553 - 1.5826
 
Tuesday 18th July 1:00pm(NZT)

We have seen some volatile price action in this pairing over the past week or so. That is evidenced by the range of the past week of between 0.6290 and 0.6469. Those highs, set on Friday night, were short lived however and it looks like the risks are all now skewed to the downside, thanks in large part to this morning’s release of soft NZ inflation data. Another test of the 0.6290 low may well be on the cards in the next 24 hours. If tonight’s dairy auction also disappoints then key support around 0.6210 will likely be tested. Later in the week we have the ECB meeting to digest and that is only likely to add to the volatility.

  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
NZD/EURO 0.6338 0.6210 0.6450 0.6290 - 0.6469
EURO/NZD 1.5777 1.5504 1.6103 1.5458 - 1.5897
 
Friday 14th July 12:00pm(NZT)
After a very quiet start to the week the New Zealand dollar has seen some significant volatility vs the Euro in the past 48 hours. Support for the NZD seemed to disappear on Wednesday night and this helped push the pair down to its 0.6290 low. Last night however we saw a combination of EUR selling and NZD buying which drove a sharp recovery and pushed the pair up to the week's high of 0.6469. It’s hard to point a finger at exactly what drove the move as there were not significant releases from either country. If the pair manages to break above resistance around 0.6470 then the next target will be 0.6580. I would expect the NZD to struggle as it approaches that level however.
The current interbank midrate is:    NZDEUR 0.6419    EURNZD 1.5578

The interbank range this week has been:    NZDEUR 0.6290 - 0.6496    EURNZD 1.5458 - 1.5897
Tuesday 11th July 1:00pm(NZT)

We favour the New Zealand dollar lower on this cross at some stage, but for the time being the pair remains very range bound. There are differing views with the ECB as to just when they should ease back on ultra easy monetary policy and such it’s hard to get too excited about Euro strength at the moment. We think an eventual decline will come from some broad based NZD weakness as it’s currently trading at somewhat elevated levels across the board. Until something triggers an NZD correction lower however the 0.6350 to 0.6450 (1.5748 to 1.5504) range will dominate.

  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
NZD/EURO 0.6364 0.6350 0.6450 0.6361 - 0.6434
EURO/NZD 1.5714 1.5504 1.5748 1.5541 - 1.5721

Friday 7th July 4:30pm(NZT)
Generally the New Zealand dollar has been flat vs the Euro , but last night’s ECB minutes saw the NZD back around 0.6361 , now at 0.6384 may try to push back over 0.6400 but still no clear trend.
The current interbank midrate is:    NZDEUR 0.6384    EURNZD 1.5665

The interbank range this week has been:    NZDEUR 0.6361 - 0.6434    EURNZD 1.5541 - 1.5720
Tuesday 4th July 4:30pm(NZT)

The NZD continues its weaker tone against the Euro from last week, now at 0.6402 with little clear direction. New Zealand fundamentals favour the NZD but any further ECB talk of higher rates will pressure the NZD on this cross.

  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
NZD/EURO 0.6400 0.6350 0.6470 0.6364 - 0.6554
EURO/NZD 1.5625 1.5520 1.5748 1.5257 - 1.5712

Friday 30th June 3:30pm(NZT)
The New Zealand dollar is also weaker against the Euro after the ECB interest rate comments saw the NZD drop from 0.6564 to 0.6366. It is now at 0.6408 and should consolidate at current levels for the next couple of days.
The current interbank midrate is:    NZDEUR 0.6406    EURNZD 1.5609

The interbank range this week has been:    NZDEUR 0.6364 - 0.6554    EURNZD 1.5257 - 1.5712
Tuesday 27th June 4:00pm(NZT)

The New Zealand dollar is back around the 0.6516 level against the Euro and looks stalled. Given the ECB comments last night we favour the NZD on this cross and look for a move to 0.6570 over the week.

  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
NZD/EURO 0.6517 0.6450 0.6570 0.6465 - 0.6525
EURO/NZD 1.5345 1.5220 1.5504 1.5325 - 1.5467

Tuesday 20th June 3:30pm(NZT)

Currently at 0.6484 and the New Zealand dollar remains dominant against the Euro. It traded up to 0.6519 last night but was unable to hold these higher levels. Look for consolidation at current levels as we head towards the RBNZ on Thursday.

  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
NZD/EURO 0.6479 0.6450 0.6520 0.6422 - 0.6517
EURO/NZD 1.5434 1.5337 1.5504 1.5344 - 1.5570

Friday 16th June 8:45pm(NZT)
The New Zealand dollar has been making consistent gains against the Euro for much of the past month. Although it’s still too early to call an end to this rally, it does seem momentum is waning and it wouldn’t take much of a pull back to turn the picture decidedly more negative. The pair is currently trading at 0.6470 and key support is now close by at 0.6450. A sustained break below that level could be the first signal the uptrend has run its course. I would expect any further attempts toward, or over, the 0.6500 level to find the going very tough.
The current interbank midrate is:    NZDEUR 0.6467    EURNZD 1.5463

The interbank range this week has been:    NZDEUR 0.6401 - 0.6489    EURNZD 1.5412 - 1.5623
Tuesday 13th June 4:00pm(NZT)

The New Zealand dollar continues to strengthen against the EUR. Now back at 0.6445 after a 0.6398 low yesterday.  Resistance is at 0.6462 which should hold ahead of FOMC. If that gets broken then 0.6500 beckons.

  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
NZD/EURO 0.6451 0.6375 0.6462 0.6344 - 0.6461
EURO/NZD 1.5501 1.5475 1.5686 1.5478 - 1.5764

Thursday 8th June 4:00pm(NZT)
The New Zealand dollar continues to climb against the EUR, now at 0.6402, back a little form an overnight high of 0.6422...event risk for tonight but if no ECB upsets look for the NZD to target 0.6450 next week.
The current interbank midrate is:    NZDEUR 0.6394    EURNZD 1.5640

The interbank range this week has been:    NZDEUR 0.6287 - 0.6421    EURNZD 1.5573 - 1.5905
Tuesday 6th June 4:00pm(NZT)

The New Zealand Dollar is holding firm against the EUR, now at 0.6342 with the NZD well supported ahead of the ECB meeting on Thursday, we still look for a push towards 0.6400 later in the week.

  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
NZD/EURO 0.6342 0.6300 0.6400 0.6278 - 0.6369
EURO/NZD 1.5769 1.5625 1.5873 1.5701 - 1.5929

Friday 2nd June 4:45pm(NZT)
The New Zealand dollar has been as high as 0.6371 vs the Euro over the last week. It is currently trading around 0.6301 and should trade sideways ahead of tonight's US data, support at 0.6260 unlikely to be threatened next week and once US data is out of the way a push towards 0.6400 is possible next week.
The current interbank midrate is:    NZDEUR 0.6301    EURNZD 1.5871

The interbank range this week has been:    NZDEUR 0.6257 - 0.6369    EURNZD 1.5701 - 1.5982
Tuesday 30th May 4:15pm(NZT)

The NZD has reasserted itself on this cross and is now around 0.6333 Euro, the immediate resistance level.  A break of this level would target 0.6400 but unlikely this will be threatened ahead of the US data over the next few days. New initial support is now at 0.6260.

  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
NZD/EURO 0.6333 0.6260 0.6400 0.6231 - 0.6338
EURO/NZD 1.5792 1.5625 1.5974 1.5777 - 1.6050

Friday 26th May 12:45pm(NZT)
The first half of this week saw the New Zealand dollar outperform the Euro trading from 0.6191 early on Monday to a high of 0.6292 on Wednesday. The NZD has been supported by solid trade balance data and increasing dairy pay-out forecasts but gains in the past couple of days have stalled and it’s not clear whether the pair can continue higher or not. Economic data out of Europe has also been positive and this is helping to underpin the EUR despite the ECB’s insistence on fully implementing its QE programme. If the pair does try to stage another leg higher there is key resistance around 0.6330 and without significant momentum I suspect that will cap any gains over the coming week. Initial downside support is now seen at 0.6240.
The current interbank midrate is:    NZDEUR 0.6258    EURNZD 1.5978

The interbank range this week has been:    NZDEUR 0.6160 - 0.6292    EURNZD 1.5894 - 1.6233
Tuesday 23rd May 4:15pm(NZT)

This pair has been as low as 0.6179 over the last 2 days, but the New Zealand dollar is now at 0.6234 on this cross as the Euro weakens over the Greece issue. Next level is 0.6287 but we favour consolidation over the next few days.

  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
NZD/EURO 0.6231 0.6175 0.6300 0.6160 - 0.6274
EURO/NZD 1.6050 1.5873 1.6194 1.5939 - 1.6234

Friday 19th May 4:15pm(NZT)
The better performing Euro has seen the New Zealand dollar lose ground over the week. Now at 0.6203 with support at 0.6175 likely to be tested early next week.
The current interbank midrate is:    NZDEUR 0.6198    EURNZD 1.6135

The interbank range this week has been:    NZDEUR 0.6190 - 0.6311    EURNZD 1.5846 - 1.6154
Tuesday 16th May 4:15pm(NZT)

The pair continues to look for direction with the New Zealand dollar marginally lower at 0.6271 after better EUR data.  Tonight’s Global Dairy auction overnight could well see a move back to the 0.6300 level and beyond if another gain is seen in the price index.

  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
NZD/EURO 0.6265 0.6240 0.6350 0.6262 - 0.6398
EURO/NZD 1.5961 1.5748 1.6025 1.5630 - 1.5968

Friday 12th May 4:15pm(NZT)
The New Zealand dollar is now at 0.6291 vs the Euro after a 0.6398 high earlier in the week. There is little clear direction but we favour the NZD, on the grounds of better economic fundamentals, for a move back to the 0.6320/50 early next week.
The current interbank midrate is:    NZDEUR 0.6288    EURNZD 1.5903

The interbank range this week has been:    NZDEUR 0.6246 - 0.6398    EURNZD 1.5630 - 1.6010
Tuesday 9th May 8:15pm(NZT)

It’s all been about the Euro on this cross after the French election result. The New Zealand dollar is now back at 0.6325 as the EUR loses some of the election lustre. It should hold around current levels ahead of the RBNZ statement.

  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
NZD/EURO 0.6316 0.6200 0.6350 0.6242 - 0.6375
EURO/NZD 1.5834 1.5748 1.6129 1.5686 - 1.6021

Friday 5th May 3:45pm(NZT)
Renewed EUR strength across the board, bolstered by more certain French election results, has seen the New Zealand dollar weaken on this cross. Now around 0.6258, down from 0.6376 earlier in the week.  A good French election result plus better Eurozone data should keep the EUR elevated next week.
The current interbank midrate is:    NZDEUR 0.6267    EURNZD 1.5955

The interbank range this week has been:    NZDEUR 0.6242 - 0.6374    EURNZD 1.5688 - 1.6021
Tuesday 2nd May 7:15pm(NZT)
The New Zealand dollar has been knocked as the EUR spiked after the first round of the French election, dropping from 0.6576 to 0.6274. It is now around 0.6347 after a rally overnight and may push back over 0.6400 after the dairy auction results (if positive) and employment data tomorrow.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
NZD/EURO 0.6341 0.6250 0.6400 0.6274 - 0.6437
EURO/NZD 1.5768 1.5525 1.6000 1.5535 - 1.5938

Friday 21st April 11:40am(NZT)
The Euro has had a surprisingly good week against the New Zealand dollar considering all the uncertainty and risks around this weekend’s first round of voting in the French election. Improvements in Eurozone data over recent weeks is certainly helping to support the EUR, and it will be interesting to see what the ECB have to say at their meeting next week. But gains are always going to be limited with the political risks around the French election. Look for a range of 0.6470 to 0.6620 to contain the pair over the coming days, unless Le Pen comes out on top in this weekend’s vote. In that case the EUR could see some serious pressure.
The current interbank midrate is:    NZDEUR 0.6524    EURNZD 1.5327

The interbank range this week has been:    NZDEUR 0.6506 - 0.6624    EURNZD 1.5098 - 1.5370
Tuesday 18th April 7:15pm(NZT)
The New Zealand dollar had a reasonably positive week against the Euro last week, although it’s given back some of those gains in the past couple of days. It’s hard to see the EURO gaining too much ground as we draw closer to next week’s voting in the first round of French elections. If Le Pen makes it through to the second round of voting the EUR will suffer. Key support comes in around 0.6535 and while above that level the risks remain to the topside and NZD out performance.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
NZD/EURO 0.6590 0.6535 0.6605 0.6514 - 0.6624
EURO/NZD 1.5175 1.5140 1.5302 1.5098 - 1.5352

Tuesday 11th April 4:15pm(NZT)
The New Zealand dollar has traded in a narrow band against the Euro, well within the 0.6450/0.6605 range. It is now around 0.6567 we favour the NZD on this cross and look for a test of 0.6580 over the next few days. Fundamentals remain NZD supportive while political concerns will weight on the Euro. Next stop 0.6610/20
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
NZD/EURO 0.6565 0.6450 0.6605 0.6520 - 0.6575
EURO/NZD 1.5232 1.5140 1.5503 1.5208 - 1.5337

Friday 7th April 5:50pm(NZT)
The New Zealand dollar has gained a small amount of ground against the Euro after the ECB comments weakened the EUR overnight. Now at 0.6546, fundamentals are NZD supportive so we expect the 0.5680 resistance level to give way heading into next week. Next stop 0.6610/20.
The current interbank midrate is:    NZDEUR 0.6545    EURNZD 1.5278

The interbank range this week has been:    NZDEUR 0.6520 - 0.6583    EURNZD 1.5192 - 1.5337
Tuesday 4th April 7:15pm(NZT)
The New Zealand dollar is currently at 0.6566 Euro and continues to gain ground. Is still confined below the 0.6580 level, but expect a break over this level may eventuate should tonight's NZGlobal dairy auction results be encouraging. Ongoing political uncertainty continues to sap any EUR strength.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
NZD/EURO 0.6555 0.6450 0.6605 0.6583 - 0.6459
EURO/NZD 1.5253 1.5140 1.5503 1.5192 - 1.5482

Friday 31st March 1:00pm(NZT)
After bottoming out around 0.6460 in the first half of the week, the New Zealand dollar has been gaining ground against the Euro and is close to testing resistance at 0.6580. That level has capped the topside for the past 3 weeks. A break above there would be a positive signal and would encourage further buying. This recent move has been largely driven by weakness in the EUR and will political uncertainty around French elections overhanging, we suspect the Euro will continue to underperform.
The current interbank midrate is:    NZDEUR 0.6550    EURNZD 1.5268

The interbank range this week has been:    NZDEUR 0.6459 - 0.6560    EURNZD 1.5244 - 1.5482
Tuesday 28th March 4:15pm(NZT)
The New Zealand dollar is marginally weaker on the Euro which continues to be supported by better data, currently at 0.6482 coming from 0.6575 a week ago. Political risk remains a problem eroding any longer term EUR strength. 0.6450 should hold in the short term.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
NZD/EURO 0.6482 0.6450 0.6605 0.6463 - 0.6557
EURO/NZD 1.5428 1.5140 1.5503 1.5250 - 1.5473

Friday 24th March 3:00pm(NZT)
Sideways trading over the last few days in a 0.6574-0.6506 range, with the New Zealand dollar performing better against the USD look further NZD appreciation on this cross next week. The Euro itself is finding support from better economic data, but NZD gains should outpace those of the Euro.
The current interbank midrate is:    NZDEUR 0.6523    EURNZD 1.5330

The interbank range this week has been:    NZDEUR 0.6482 - 0.6574    EURNZD 1.5211 - 1.5428
Tuesday 21st March 4:15pm(NZT)
Given the New Zealand dollar rally against the USD over the last few days, this move has been mirrored against the Euro as the NZD has strengthened from 0.6470 last week to currently 0.6548. Immediate resistance is now at 0.6605 which could be seen over the next few days.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
NZD/EURO 0.6548 0.6450 0.6600 0.6476 - 0.6576
EURO/NZD 1.5272 1.5151 1.5503 1.5207 - 1.5441

Friday 17th March 4:00pm(NZT)
The New Zealand dollar drifted lower against the EUR this week ranging between 0.6470-0.6578. It is currently sitting around 0.6482 as the EUR has been boosted by results from the Dutch election and talk of a hike in the deposit rate. We now look for the weaker NZD tone to continue into next week.
The current interbank midrate is:    NZDEUR 0.6480    EURNZD 1.5431

The interbank range this week has been:    NZDEUR 0.6471 - 0.6576    EURNZD 1.5207 - 1.5454
Tuesday 14th March 3:45pm(NZT)
The New Zealand dollar continues it weaker tone against the Euro, now at 0.6489 after a close last week around 0.6532. Better economic results have helped the EUR on this cross but the Dutch election this Wednesday increases political risk for the EUR. We favour sideways trading in a 0.6600-0.6420 range over the next few days.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
NZD/EURO 0.6495 0.6450 0.6600 0.6471 - 0.6625
EURO/NZD 1.5397 1.5151 1.5503 1.5094 - 1.5454

Friday 10th March 4:00pm(NZT)
The New Zealand dollar has continued to fall against the Euro and is now at 0.6523 after closing around 0.6636 last week. It dropped through support at 0.6620 and 0.6545 and the slightly more hawkish tone of the ECB statement last night has also knocked the NZD. Look for a test of 0.6475 next week, for the moment the wind is blowing the way of the EUR with political concerns in the background (for the moment!).
The current interbank midrate is:    NZDEUR 0.6523    EURNZD 1.5330

The interbank range this week has been:    NZDEUR 0.6509 - 0.6700    EURNZD 1.4926 - 1.5363
Tuesday 7th March 3:45pm(NZT)
The New Zealand dollar has broken support against the Euro to trade at 0.6617 having fallen from 0.6729 late last week as the NZD was hit hard by the stronger USD. Immediate support is at 0.6620 then 0.6545, but unlikely the later level will be seen ahead of the USD payroll data. EUR remains susceptible to by political ructions.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
NZD/EURO 0.6620 0.6620 0.6700 0.6605 - 0.6815
EURO/NZD 1.5105 1.4925 1.5105 1.4673 - 1.5140
 
Friday 3rd March 4:15pm(NZT)
The EUR continues to track higher against the New Zealand dollar, no doubt helped by the more encouraging Eurozone economic data. Currently at 0.6709 (1.4904) we look for a test of 0.6690 (1.4947) over the next week providing EUR data flows remain upbeat. But Eurozone political developments have potential to overshadow and rally back to 0.6800 (1.4705).
The current interbank midrate is:    NZDEUR 0.6696    EURNZD 1.4934

The interbank range this week has been:    NZDEUR 0.6693 - 0.6839    EURNZD 1.4622 - 1.4940
Tuesday 28th February 7:45pm(NZT)
Although continuing to remain under pressure the Euro  has traded higher against the New Zealand dollar over the last 4 days, with the NZD coming from a high of 0.6853 (1.4592) to 0.6784 (1.4741) around where it is currently trading. Latest economic results from the Eurozone have been better but this is still overshadowed by the political events around the European elections and in particular the French presidential elections in April/May. Look for this cross to consolidate around current levels, but we still look for a test of 0.6881 (1.4533)  at some stage.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
NZD/EURO 0.6785 0.6730 0.6800 0.6758 - 0.6850
EURO/NZD 1.4740 1.4705 1.4858 1.4598 - 1.4797

Friday 24th February 2:45pm(NZT)
The Euro has been under pressure across the board this week as looming French elections look to be a very close call. The far right anti-euro candidate, Marine Le Pen, is well in the mix and with huge swaths of disheartened middle and lower income voters delivering shock results in both the US and the UK over the past 8 months, it would be foolish to think France will be any different. Europe faces a number of hurdles this year with elections in Italy and Germany also able to throw a spanner in the works. We continue to suspect any periods of relative Euro strength will quickly run into sellers. The NZDEUR cross is likely to test the year's high at 0.6881 (low at 1.4533) at some stage over the coming weeks.
The current interbank midrate is:    NZDEUR 0.6829    EURNZD 1.4643

The interbank range this week has been:    NZDEUR 0.6741 - 0.6850    EURNZD 1.4598 - 1.4835
Tuesday 21st February 6:45pm(NZT)
No major moves in this cross with the 0.6745-0.6823 (1.4826-1.4656) still holding sway. The New Zealand dollar is currently trading around 0.6764 Euro (1.4785) and potential remains for a push to the 0.6800 (1.4705) if NZD news remains positive.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
NZD/EURO 0.6761 0.6730 0.6800 0.6741 - 0.6822
EURO/NZD 1.4791 1.4705 1.4858 1.4659 - 1.4835

Friday 17th February 4:30pm(NZT)
The New Zealand dollar is still holding firm against the EUR now at 0.6764 (1.4784), within a weekly 0.6745-0.6823 range (1.4826-1.4656). Price action remains flat but we still look for a move a move over 0.6800 next week as Euro news continues to be EUR negative.
The current interbank midrate is:    NZDEUR 0.6751    EURNZD 1.4812

The interbank range this week has been:    NZDEUR 0.6744 - 0.6822    EURNZD 1.4659 - 1.4829
Tuesday 14th February 4:45pm(NZT)
The New Zealand dollar is still holding firm against the EUR now at 0.6772 (1.4765) within a weekly 0.6728-0.6837 range (1.4862-1.4626). Price action has been fairly flat over the last couple of nights but we still favour a move towards the 0.6900 level over the next week or so as concerns from within Europe continue to pressure the single currency.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
NZD/EURO 0.6773 0.6730 0.6800 0.6739 - 0.6879
EURO/NZD 1.4765 1.4705 1.4858 1.4537 - 1.4838

Friday 10th February 6:30pm(NZT)
The New Zealand dollar, although weaker over the last two days, remains in the broad uptrend channel against the Euro. It has made a low of 0.6729 (1.4860) yesterday after the RBNZ upset but has traded for most of today in the 0.6745 (1.4825) area. We are still looking for a push over the 0.6900 (1.4492) level but this now delayed. Expect little change going into next week with offshore events providing the main drivers.
The current interbank midrate is:    NZDEUR 0.6752    EURNZD 1.4812

The interbank range this week has been:    NZDEUR 0.6739 - 0.6879    EURNZD 1.4537 - 1.4838
Tuesday 7th February 4:45pm(NZT)
The New Zealand dollar is back on a strengthening course against the EUR now trading at 0.6856 (1.4585) as the EUR has weakened over the last two days as political tensions in the Eurozone come to the fore. Solid NZ inflation expectations data this afternoon as also supported the NZD. There is some resistance at 0.6900 (1.4492) being the next physiological level, but it now looks likely that 0.7054 (1.4175) will be the next major target. Initial support is now at 0.6775 (1.4760).
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
NZD/EURO 0.6866 0.6775 0.6900 0.6726 - 0.6872
EURO/NZD 1.4564 1.4493 1.4760 1.4552 - 1.4867

Friday 3rd February 4:30pm(NZT)
The New Zealand dollar has had a couple of pull backs on this cross to the 0.6728 (1.4862) level on reaction to the higher Eurozone inflation data and the jump in NZ unemployment data. It ends the week back around the 0.6770 (1.4770) mark and we look for continued EUR weakness next week to target the 0.6816 (1.4670) and higher targeting 0.6870 (1.4560) as stronger NZ fundamentals remain evident.
The current interbank midrate is:    NZDEUR 0.6762    EURNZD 1.4788

The interbank range this week has been:    NZDEUR 0.6726 - 0.6825    EURNZD 1.4653 - 1.4867
Tuesday 31st January 4:45pm(NZT)
The New Zealand dollar continues to strengthen against the EUR now trading at 0.6808 (1.4687) up nearly 100 points from levels seen last week. With resistance at 0.6810 (1.4684) now broken, next target is 0.6870(1.4560) last seen at the end of April 2015. If this level is breached an extension to 0.7060 (1.4164) is possible. However the New Zealand dollar has come a long way on this cross and further signs of Eurozone inflation emerging could see a retracement of EUR losses.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
NZD/EURO 0.6815 0.6763 0.6870 0.6716 - 0.6825
EURO/NZD 1.4675 1.4560 1.4786 1.4653 - 1.4890

Friday 27th January 3:30pm(NZT)
The New Zealand dollar looks to end the week towards the top of the range at 0.6783 (1.4742) as the EUR continued to slide over the week. Next resistance level is around 0.6810 (1.4684) but in the absence of any major negative EUR news this level should hold.
The current interbank midrate is:    NZDEUR 0.6783    EURNZD 1.4743

The interbank range this week has been:    NZDEUR 0.6689 - 0.6803    EURNZD 1.4700 - 1.4951
Tuesday 24th January 6:15pm(NZT)
Sitting around the 0.6738 (1.4841) level after a 0.6681-0.6727 (1.4967-1.4864) move overnight , we target another move to the 0.6750 level later tonight and the New Zealand CPI data could push to the 0.6800(1.4705) mark.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
NZD/EURO 0.6726 0.6666 0.6760 0.6682 - 0.6768
EURO/NZD 1.4866 1.4800 1.5000 1.4775 - 1.4966

Friday 20th January 1:30pm(NZT)
The Euro has been consistently outperformed by the New Zealand dollar recently, with the cross rate trending higher all week. Economic data hasn’t had a big impact with action in the wider market driving the cross by default. ECB President Draghi didn’t help the Euro in the wake of last night’s ECB meeting, suggesting he’s not at all concerned about increases in inflation and that monetary policy will remain very accommodative over the coming months. Those comments helped drive the pair to the week’s high of 0.6768 (low of 1.4755). We may well see a test of the 2016 high, at 0.6807(low at 1.4691), sometime next week. Downside support comes in around 0.6665 and I would expect that to contain any potential periods of weakness over the coming days.
The current interbank midrate is:    NZDEUR 0.6744    EURNZD 1.4828

The interbank range this week has been:    NZDEUR 0.6666 - 0.6768    EURNZD 1.4775 - 1.5001
Tuesday 17th January 2:15pm(NZT)
The New Zealand dollar continues to hold firm on this cross, opening at 0.6702 (1.4920) after an overnight range of 0.6679-0.6724 (1.4971-1.4872). The gradual weakness of the EUR on this cross looks to be entrenched and if there is no major change in policy from Thursday’s ECB meeting we look for Decembers high of 0.6807 (1.4689) to be seen over the next week or so.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
NZD/EURO 0.6694 0.6600 0.6807 0.6583 - 0.6720
EURO/NZD 1.4939 1.4689 1.5152 1.4881 - 1.5190

Friday 13th January 6:30pm(NZT)
The New Zealand dollar continues to firm against the EUR with an overnight move of 0.6661-0..6707 (1.5011-1.4910) …trading remains in existing ranges but with a strengthening tone , look for a test of the 0.6745 (1.4825) level next week.
The current interbank midrate is:    NZDEUR 0.6705    EURNZD 1.4915

The interbank range this week has been:    NZDEUR 0.6583 - 0.6706    EURNZD 1.4911 - 1.5190
Tuesday 10th January 4:00pm(NZT)
The New Zealand dollar had an overnight range of 0.6603-0.6654 (1.5144-1.5028) against the EUR and opens around the 0.6628 (1.5087) level. Trading over the last few days has been within existing ranges with no clear trend prevailing, however with political concerns ongoing over the upcoming elections in several major European nations, we expect the NZD to remain on a firm footing against the EUR over the next few months. For now momentum is mildly negative with support targets being around .6550 (1.5267) and .6450 (1.5504).
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
NZD/EURO 0.6630 0.6450 0.6680 0.6600 - 0.6666
EURO/NZD 1.5082 1.4975 1.5504 1.5002 - 1.5153

Friday 23rd December 3:45am(NZT)
The New Zealand dollar has continued to ease in trade against the Euro this week. The move reflects a continuation of the recent momentum which has seen the EUR outperform the NZD as investors reduce exposures to riskier currencies like the NZD and AUD. Expect quiet trade next week although thin liquidity in the opening week of 2017 may incite higher volatility than would be expected during normal trade. Indicators due come mainly from Europe and include PMI and inflation reads. For now momentum is mildly negative with support targets being around .6550 (1.5267 resistance) and .6450 (1.5504 resistance).
The current interbank midrate is:    NZDEUR 0.6612    EURNZD 1.5123

The interbank range this week has been:    NZDEUR 0.6589 - 0.6749    EURNZD 1.4823 - 1.5176
Tuesday 20th December 1:30pm(NZT)
The New Zealand dollar has declined in trade against the Euro since Friday. The move reflects the underperformance of the NZD (and AUD) as key $AUD sensitive commodity prices decline in the environment of a stronger US dollar. A more cautious stance towards the risk currencies has also been seen this week on the back of increased geopolitical concerns. Data focus for the cross starts with dairy prices tonight (no change expected) and NZ GDP on Thursday. We favour buying the EUR over the NZD.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
NZD/EURO 0.6658 0.6600 0.6685 0.6643 - 0.6806
EURO/NZD 1.5019 1.4959 1.5152 1.4692 - 1.5054

Friday 16th December 11:45am(NZT)
The New Zealand dollar is trading around those levels reported on Tuesday against the Euro in present trade. A rescheduling of the key NZ data meant that the cross has displayed only small moves throughout the week. Both the EUR and NZD fell heavily in the environment of a strong US dollar after yesterday’s FOMC meeting. This week’s highs just above .6800 (1.4706 lows) is the first area on the topside to watch heading into next week. Key data considerations for the cross are dairy price numbers (overnight Tuesday) and NZ GDP on Thursday. Initial support is seen around .6700 (1.4925 resistance). Momentum is mildly NZD positive at present.
The current interbank midrate is:    NZDEUR 0.6753    EURNZD 1.4809

The interbank range this week has been:    NZDEUR 0.6743 - 0.6806    EURNZD 1.4692 - 1.4830
Tuesday 13th December 2:30pm(NZT)
The New Zealand dollar is trading unchanged in trade against the Euro since our report on Friday. The lack of volatility was to be expected given there have been no fresh economic leads of any note since, although highs have extended to .6790 (1.4728 lows) in the interim. Weak resistance above these highs is seen around .6835 (1.4631 support). Current momentum supports further gains in time, although look to NZ GDP data on Thursday for fresh flavour.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
NZD/EURO 0.6760 0.6700 0.6835 0.6611 - 0.6792
EURO/NZD 1.4792 1.4631 1.4925 1.4723 - 1.5127

Friday 9th December 11:15am(NZT)
The New Zealand dollar has rallied strongly against the Euro since Tuesday’s report. Most of the move has come overnight on the back of the slump in the EUR after the ECB monetary policy announcement. This has shifted momentum towards the upside again for the cross which brings next resistance at the .6835/40 (1.4631/1.4620 support) level into view. Solid support is now distant at .6600 (1.5152 resistance). Focus for next week includes NZ GDP on Thursday. Whilst in Europe politics and the frail Italian banking sector continue to interest.
The current interbank midrate is:    NZDEUR 0.6757    EURNZD 1.4799

The interbank range this week has been:    NZDEUR 0.6604 - 0.6770    EURNZD 1.4770 - 1.5142
Tuesday 6th December 2:30pm(NZT)
The New Zealand dollar has eased marginally in trade against the Euro since our commentary on Thursday. Yesterday was a particularly volatile one for the pair which saw the NZD rally to around .6765 highs (1.4782 lows) against the Euro after the news of the ‘no’ vote to the Italian constitutional reforms. Subsequent news of NZ PM Key’s resignation and a very strong rebound in the Euro which had earlier traded to 20 month lows saw the cross fall to lows ahead of .6600 (1.5152 highs) in trade overnight. Look to the ECB announcement on Thursday for the next round of volatility. We lack a bias given the uncertainty around this announcement.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
NZD/EURO 0.6646 0.6600 0.6765 0.6606 - 0.6764
EURO/NZD 1.5046 1.4782 1.5152 1.4783 - 1.5138

Thursday 1st December 2:00pm(NZT)
The New Zealand dollar is sitting largely unchanged in trade against the Euro since our commentary on Tuesday. Much of the moves this week have come via the anchoring of the NZD to the AUD, although a degree of outperformance against the Australian dollar has also been notable. This helped the NZD/EUR reach highs just above the resistance at .6730 (1.4859 support) in trade overnight. The influence of the AUD looks likely to continue to be the dominant force on the cross heading into the end of the week. This has us favouring a NZD top in trade yesterday for the time being.
The current interbank midrate is:    NZDEUR 0.6686    EURNZD 1.4957

The interbank range this week has been:    NZDEUR 0.6614 - 0.6737    EURNZD 1.4843 - 1.5119
Tuesday 29th November 3:30pm(NZT)
The New Zealand dollar has posted moderate gains against the Euro since our report on Friday. The move reflects the move up in the NZD which has benefitted from general commodity currency strength (especially gains in the AUD). We expect commodity movements and appetite for the commodity currencies in the wake of the OPEC decision later in week to have the strongest influence on the cross this week. Momentum for now is mildly supportive of further NZD gains.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
NZD/EURO 0.6668 0.6575 0.6730 0.6614 - 0.6684
EURO/NZD 1.4997 1.4859 1.5209 1.4962 - 1.5119

Friday 25th November 2:30pm(NZT)
The New Zealand dollar has had a very quiet week of trade against the Euro this week. The lack of volatility reflects the reduced ranges in the both the NZD/USD and EUR/USD after neither region had any key data releases of note. Next week is again quiet in NZ whilst in Europe interest will come via the form of PMI and inflation releases. We expect another relatively quiet week overall and lack a strong bias on the next shift, although momentum is mildly supportive for further NZD gains.
The current interbank midrate is:    NZDEUR 0.6635    EURNZD 1.5072

The interbank range this week has been:    NZDEUR 0.6594 - 0.6664    EURNZD 1.5006 - 1.5166
Tuesday 22nd November 2:30pm(NZT)
The New Zealand dollar has lifted marginally in trade against the Euro since our commentary on Friday. Most of the gains can be put down to the solid performance of the NZD/USD on the back of the talk of strong exporter demand. With only second tier data scheduled from both regions this week we expect a relatively quiet week of trade within a .6575/.6700 (1.5209/1.4925) type range. The lack of momentum gives us little bias this week from here.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
NZD/EURO 0.6651 0.6575 0.6730 0.6581 - 0.6658
EURO/NZD 1.5036 1.4859 1.5209 1.5020 - 1.5196

Friday 18th November 2:30pm(NZT)
The New Zealand dollar has eased marginally against the Euro in trade since Tuesday. It has been a quiet week for this cross which has seen both the EUR and NZD suffer at the hands of the stronger US dollar over the week (key data has been lacking). Data next week looks unlikely to be a driver again, although the European PMIs throughout the week may have some influence. Look to the AUD’s influence on the NZD for direction although overall it may be another subdued week for this cross next week.
The current interbank midrate is:    NZDEUR 0.6615    EURNZD 1.5116

The interbank range this week has been:    NZDEUR 0.6532 - 0.6643    EURNZD 1.5054 - 1.5309
Tuesday 15th November 2:00pm(NZT)
The New Zealand dollar has gained slightly in trade against the Euro since our commentary on Friday. The move comes as the Euro traded to fresh 2016 lows against the greenback in trade overnight as the market looks to the policy and fiscal divergences between the US Fed and ECB. Lows towards .6535 (1.5302 highs) were seen near the end of last week’s close. Look for most the influence to be external given the lower impact data due from both countries this week (although dairy prices tonight may be a mover). We lack a real bias at present, but view levels towards .6700 (1.4925) as opportunities to cover shorter term EUR needs.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
NZD/EURO 0.6632 0.6450 0.6730 0.6446 - 0.6733
EURO/NZD 1.5078 1.4859 1.5504 1.4852 - 1.5513

Friday 11th November 2:30pm(NZT)
The New Zealand dollar has had an extremely volatile week of trade against the Euro this week which has seen it gyrate between highs around .6725 (1.4870 lows) and .6450 lows (1.5504 highs and old support/resistance). Initial gains to near the weekly highs were seen on Wednesday ahead of an anticipated Clinton victory in the US election. Levels turned quickly into trading on the weekly lows as it emerged that Trump would be the victor (risk on - to risk off and EUR safety demand). The move quickly reversed and saw the cross trade on its weekly highs after yesterday’s RBNZ review (the EUR had fallen heavily at that point). Expect sentiment to drive again next week with further volatile trade.
The current interbank midrate is:    NZDEUR 0.6606    EURNZD 1.5137

The interbank range this week has been:    NZDEUR 0.6446 - 0.6733    EURNZD 1.4852 - 1.5513
Tuesday 8th November 2:30pm(NZT)
The New Zealand dollar has continued to rally strongly in trade against the Euro since our commentary on Thursday. The latest move reflects the strong buying seen in the risk based currencies in anticipation of a Clinton victory in the US election tomorrow. Focus for this week will be on tomorrow’s US election outcome and the RBNZ interest rate decision on Thursday. These events introduce considerable uncertainty in the cross, although momentum at present supports further gains.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
NZD/EURO 0.6640 0.6620 0.6700 0.6472 - 0.6656
EURO/NZD 1.5060 1.4925 1.5106 1.5024 - 1.5452

Thursday 3rd November 3:00pm(NZT)
Better than expected NZ employment and dairy price data has seen the momentum in the New Zealand dollar reverse higher in trade against the Euro this week. Highs this morning around .6580 (1.5198 lows) represent a gain of just over 1c against the Euro from the lows seen earlier in the week. Focus over the next week will be on next Thursday’s RBNZ interest rate decision, although tomorrow’s US data may see some further (reduced) volatility in the cross. We see further choppy trade within recent ranges as most likely over the week ahead (should the RBNZ ease as expected).
The current interbank midrate is:    NZDEUR 0.6562    EURNZD 1.5239

The interbank range this week has been:    NZDEUR 0.6472 - 0.6582    EURNZD 1.5194 - 1.5452
Tuesday 1st November 1:30pm(NZT)
The New Zealand dollar has continued to slowly ease against the Euro since our last commentary on Friday. The move reflects a continuation of last week’s outperformance of the EUR which has lifted against the greenback (against the NZD which has side tracked). Look to NZ data (dairy and employment in the next 24 hours) and the relative performance of the pairs after the key US events of the week for direction. For now the short term NZD momentum is negative, although a positive NZ data surprise has the potential to quickly reverse this.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
NZD/EURO .6523 .6450 .6620 .6502 - .6588
EURO/NZD 1.5331 1.5106 1.5504 1.5180 - 1.5380

Friday 28th October 3:00pm(NZT)
The New Zealand dollar has eased marginally against the Euro since Tuesday’s commentary. The decline reflects the consolidation which has been seen in the Euro (EUR data was generally positive although low impact) and the softness in the NZD over the week (due to a firmer greenback and weaker AUD). Next week’s focus comes from inflation and PMI reads in Europe although NZ’s employment data on Wednesday should be the most important indicator for the cross. Upside momentum for this cross appears to be over for the time being.
The current interbank midrate is:    NZDEUR 0.6536    EURNZD 1.5301

The interbank range this week has been:    NZDEUR 0.6514 - 0.6595    EURNZD 1.5164 - 1.5352
Tuesday 25th October 3:00pm(NZT)
The New Zealand dollar has eased against the Euro since our report on Friday. The move reflects the recent underperformance of the commodity currencies in the face of solid continued demand for the USD. With little in the way of material data from either region this week’s moves will come down to external factors such as those of recent days to drive trade. We lack a strong bias, although for now the momentum has swung to the NZD downside since last week’s highs.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
NZD/EURO 0.6559 0.6450 0.6620 0.6512 - 0.6618
EURO/NZD 1.5247 1.5106 1.5504 1.5109 - 1.5357

Friday 23rd October 2:30pm(NZT)
The New Zealand dollar has moved higher against the Euro in trade since Tuesday. The move reflects the relative strength and demand for the NZD after Tuesday’s better than expected NZ inflation print and the recent weakness in the Euro which fell overnight after the market’s dovish ECB assessment. Looking ahead to next week we will receive numerous second tier EUR economic indicators which means direction will likely come from the underlying sentiment shown towards the Euro and commodity currencies. Momentum points to the NZD upside for now, although this week’s move has been significant and momentum is waning.
The current interbank midrate is:    NZDEUR 0.6571    EURNZD 1.5218

The interbank range this week has been:    NZDEUR 0.6409 - 0.6618    EURNZD 1.5109 - 1.5602
Tuesday 18th October 3:00pm(NZT)
The New Zealand dollar is trading higher against the Euro since our report on Friday. The move reflects (mainly) the strength seen in the NZD in recent hours as it has benefitted from overall commodity currency strength, NZD/AUD demand and an above market Q3 inflation report this morning. In focus for the rest of the week will be Thursday’s ECB meeting and tonight’s GDT dairy auction (little change expected). We favour taking advantage of this spike to buy EUR’s over the NZD, although continue to see support for the NZD on sell-offs overall.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
NZD/EURO 0.6518 0.6450 0.6530 0.6344 - 0.6529
EURO/NZD 1.5342 1.5314 1.5504 1.5316 - 1.5763

Friday 14th October 2:00pm(NZT)
The New Zealand dollar is trading largely unchanged in trade against the Euro since our report on Tuesday. Some volatility was seen later on Tuesday over the Assistant RBNZ Governor’s speech which pointed to a high probability of an RBNZ rate cut in November. This sent the cross to lows near .6340 (1.5773 highs). We continue to favour selling rallies towards first resistance at .6450 (1.5504 support) for now. Items of interest for the cross next week include Tuesday’s NZ inflation report and the ECB monetary policy meeting on Thursday.
The current interbank midrate is:    NZDEUR .6417    EURNZD 1.5584

The interbank range this week has been:    NZDEUR .6344 - .6436    EURNZD 1.5537 - 1.5763
Tuesday 11th October 2:00pm(NZT)
The New Zealand dollar sits only marginally lower in trade against the Euro since Friday. There has been no fresh news since Friday so a consolidation after last week’s large early falls was to be expected. There is no key data due from either country this week so at this stage further consolidation looks most likely. We favour selling NZD rallies in the .6435/50 zone (buying 1.5540/1.5504), although would be surprised to see much NZD downside beyond the first (weak) support area at .6360/70 (1.5723/1.5699) on the week.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
NZD/EURO .6401 .6360 .6450 .6377 - .6530
EURO/NZD 1.5622 1.5505 1.5725 1.5313 - 1.5682

Friday 7th October 2:30pm(NZT)
The New Zealand dollar has had a poor week in trade against the Euro this week. The move comes on the back of the falls in the NZD/USD exchange rate, which felt the impact of both heavy flow out of the ‘risk’ currencies and the USD supportive data. Falls in the latest GDT dairy auction were also partly to blame. The breakdown in support for the NZD now has us favouring selling rallies in this cross next week with sell targets being first resistance at .6450 ( buy 1.5504 support) and the .6520/35 zone beyond (1.5337/1.5302), should a large NZD bounce eventuate. Data from both regions next week is relatively light-weight.
The current interbank midrate is:    NZDEUR .6425    EURNZD 1.5564

The interbank range this week has been:    NZDEUR .6383 - .6530    EURNZD 1.5313 - 1.5668
Tuesday 4th October 3:00pm(NZT)
The New Zealand dollar has moved higher in recent trade against the Euro, although the moves have been muted since our report on Friday. In focus over coming hours will be RBNZ Governor Wheeler’s speech this afternoon and the next in the GDT dairy auction series overnight. European PMI’s will also feature this week although for now we favour mixed trading this week within recent ranges, although the current momentum may see the cross move through first resistance with .6550 (1.5267) and .6595 (1.5163) being the targets above.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
NZD/EURO .6505 .6425 .6520 .6449 - .6519
EURO/NZD 1.5374 1.5337 1.5564 1.5340 - 1.5507

Friday 30th September 2:30pm(NZT)
The New Zealand dollar sits near those levels reported earlier in the week in present trade against the Euro. Much of the volatility in the cross this week has reflected the performance of the NZD which saw the cross move to .6515 highs (1.5349 lows) in the middle of the week as the NZD/USD exchange rate surged to highs above .7320 briefly. Data considerations haven’t been relevant this week, although European PMI and the NZ GDT dairy auction should mean next week is slightly more interesting. We continue to favour buying EUR on spikes in the NZ dollar for the time being.
The current interbank midrate is:    NZDEUR 0.6457    EURNZD 1.5487

The interbank range this week has been:    NZDEUR 0.6430 - 0.6524    EURNZD 1.5329 - 1.5553
Tuesday 27th September 3:00pm(NZT)
The New Zealand dollar has slid further in trade against the Euro since Friday. The move comes on the back of the relative outperformance in the Euro in recent trade, in part on the back of strong German IFO data overnight. A marginal breach of support around .6440 (1.5528 resistance) was seen to lows near .6430 (1.5552 highs), although for now a partial rebound has been seen. This rejection has clouded the outlook somewhat for further downside although, we feel following last week’s RBNZ commentary that strength in the NZD will be somewhat more limited for now. This has us favouring the bounce to stall towards .6500 (1.5385). Data this week is limited with inflation numbers late in the week out of Europe looking to have the best chance of impacting.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
NZD/EURO 0.6468 0.6425 0.6600 0.6430 - 0.6593
EURO/NZD 1.5460 1.5152 1.5564 1.5168 - 1.5553

Friday 23rd September 2:00pm(NZT)
The New Zealand dollar has eased marginally against the Euro since our report on Tuesday, although sits well off its ~.6590 highs (1.5175 lows) seen earlier in the week. The downshift comes on the back of yesterday’s interpretation of the RBNZ OCR statement by the market which was seen as more dovish than expected, and came after a weaker than expected GDT dairy auction earlier in the week. Focus next week will be on various data indicators out of Europe (most of which should have only a minor impact) and sentiment for the risk/commodity currencies. We favour buying dips with a break of .6440 (1.5528) looking needed to open the downside.
The current interbank midrate is:    NZDEUR 0.6500    EURNZD 1.5384

The interbank range this week has been:    NZDEUR 0.6498 - 0.6593    EURNZD 1.5168 - 1.5390
Tuesday 20th September 2:00pm(NZT)
The New Zealand dollar has lifted moderately against the Canadian dollar since Friday, although for the now the gains have been capped ahead of .9660. Volatility has been somewhat limited since Friday, although a dip was seen in the cross into the week’s end as the NZD underperformed in Friday’s stronger USD environment. Thursday’s RBNZ commentary and OCR review will be important for the cross this week, although again look to the oil market for further leads. Expect tonight’s GDT dairy auction to have a more limited impact. For now momentum remains positive although gains are well extended.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
NZD/EURO 0.6530 0.6440 0.6650 0.6447 - 0.6562
EURO/NZD 1.5313 1.5038 1.5528 1.5240 - 1.5511

Friday 16th September 2:30pm(NZT)
The New Zealand dollar has eased against the Euro since our report on Tuesday. The move reflects the fall in the NZD earlier in the week which was seen in response to a rise in risk aversion as global equities fell sharply. Support has been seen around .6440 (1.5528 resistance) twice during the week, whilst on the topside .6550 (1.5267) and .6650 (1.5038) are the levels to watch. Next week again looks relatively quiet in Europe (noting PMI data on Friday) which will put the focus mainly on NZ’ s interest rate decision on Thursday. International equity market performance and the GDT dairy auction (overnight Tuesday) should also be watched. We lack a bias at the current levels, although for the now the momentum has again swung for a higher NZD.
The current interbank midrate is:    NZDEUR 0.6503    EURNZD 1.5377

The interbank range this week has been:    NZDEUR 0.6447 - 0.6576    EURNZD 1.5206 - 1.5511
Tuesday 13th September 1:30pm(NZT)
The New Zealand dollar has fallen against the Euro since our report last week. The move reflects the outperformance of the EUR in the wake of those Fed official comments on Friday. These saw the market lift the odds on pricing of a US rate hike later this month. The comments drove a large correction in global equities during the day and saw investors flee the risk currencies (like the NZD). Look for the risk theme to be at the forefront of investor’s minds again this week given the surge in volatility of recent days. On the data front expect the NZ GDP numbers on Thursday to have the greatest chance of impact. We favour the NZD to again firm as investors begin to embrace risk and assess that little has changed in the US.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
NZD/EURO 0.6544 0.6480 0.6650 0.6483 - 0.6653
EURO/NZD 1.5282 1.5038 1.5432 1.5031 - 1.5424

Thursday 8th September 2:30pm(NZT)
The New Zealand dollar has continued to advance against the Euro in trade this week. The move has reflected the strong demand for the NZD seen this week as investors chase currencies with yield appeal and chase the NZ economic growth story (which has been helped by a continued recovery in dairy prices). Focus for the cross is on today’s ECB meeting which may only add to the volatility already seen this week. Next resistance for this move is eyed in the .6690/.6710 zone (1.4948/1.4903 support). Given the sizeable move support on a correction looks unlikely to be seen prior to ~.6550 (1.5267 resistance).
The current interbank midrate is:    NZDEUR 0.6634    EURNZD 1.5073

The interbank range this week has been:    NZDEUR 0.6493 - 0.6653    EURNZD 1.5031 - 1.5402
Tuesday 6th September 3:30pm(NZT)
The New Zealand dollar has continued to rally against the Euro since our report on Friday. The move comes on the back of the relative outperformance of high yielding currencies in the wake of Friday’s weaker than expected US employment data. Focus for the cross this week will be on Thursday’s ECB meeting, whilst in NZ the overnight dairy auction will provide some interest. Momentum for now continues to favour the NZD upside with the July highs (~.6600/1.5129) now the target, although the ECB meeting complicates.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
NZD/EURO 0.6553 0.6440 0.6610 0.6469 - 0.6569
EURO/NZD 1.5260 1.5129 1.5528 1.5222- 1.5458

Friday 2nd September 2:30pm(NZT)
The New Zealand dollar is trading slightly higher in trade against the Euro since our report on Tuesday. There has been little in the way of market moving economic leads this week which has seen the cross remain largely bounded by levels seen late last week. Events next week will be dominated by Thursday’s ECB interest rate decision, with particular focus on the commentary given the low expectations of additional stimulus. We continue to have a marginal NZ dollar upside bias prior to that decision, although would be surprised to see the August highs breached (~.6545/1.5279).
The current interbank midrate is:    NZDEUR 0.6505    EURNZD 1.5372

The interbank range this week has been:    NZDEUR 0.6443 - 0.6529    EURNZD 1.5316 - 1.5520
Tuesday 30th August 2:00pm(NZT)
The New Zealand dollar is trading at similar levels against the Euro to those reported on Friday. Some volatility has been noted within a .6440-.6520 (1.5528-1.5337) range which has been noted since the USD supportive comments on US rates which came out of Jackson Hole. We maintain a marginal NZD upside bias for now given the ECB’s confirmed signalling of an easing bias at the weekend’s meeting, although this week’s data looks unlikely to be able to drive the cross materially in either direction. So we favour .6400-.6550 (1.5625-1.5267) at a stretch on the week.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
NZD/EURO 0.6483 0.6360 0.6520 0.6434 - 0.6524
EURO/NZD 1.5424 1.5337 1.5723 1.5327 - 1.5542

Friday 26th August 3:30pm(NZT)
The New Zealand dollar has continued to drift higher against the Euro in trade this week. Highs around the .6500 (1.5385) level that were seen were slightly higher than anticipated although for now the lack of key incoming data from both regions has hampered any chance of real follow through momentum. Look for volatility to pick up to end the week as headlines come out of Jackson Hole, especially should any surprising comments emanate from the ECB. We have a marginal upside bias although real support in the .6360/90(1.5723/1.5649 resistance) zone is reasonably distant at present.
The current interbank midrate is:    NZDEUR 0.6472    EURNZD 1.5450

The interbank range this week has been:    NZDEUR 0.6390 - 0.6506    EURNZD 1.5370 - 1.5649
Tuesday 23rd August 1:30pm(NZT)
The New Zealand dollar has ticked higher in trade against the Euro since our commentary on Friday. There have been no new releases of note from either region to drive the cross in the interim although a spike was seen to near (weak) first resistance this morning over Governor Wheeler’s speech in Dunedin. We expect the cross to be bounded by the support/resistance levels this week given the lack of key incoming data, although expect volatility at the end of the week to increase as comments emanate from the Jackson Hole Symposium (watch for those of the Fed and ECB).
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
NZD/EURO 0.6447 0.6360 0.6490 0.6390 - 0.6487
EURO/NZD 1.5511 1.5408 1.5723 1.5415 - 1.5649

Friday 19th August 1:30pm(NZT)
The New Zealand dollar has eased against the Euro this week. The move whilst somewhat surprising given the positive NZ data leads during the week reflects the overall stronger performance of the EUR in the environment of the weakening USD that has been seen this week. Look for leads to begin with various PMI indicators from Europe on Tuesday next week although overall given the lack of weight behind the data we favour more lack-lustre trade with dips to be supported in the .6360/.6380 region (1.5723/1.5674).
The current interbank midrate is:    NZDEUR 0.6409    EURNZD 1.5602

The interbank range this week has been:    NZDEUR 0.6401 - 0.6487    EURNZD 1.5415 - 1.5624
Tuesday 16th August 1:30pm(NZT)
The New Zealand dollar is drifting in trade against the Euro since our report on Friday. Both currencies have been benefactors of weaker than expected US data in the interim, whilst on the data front there has been nothing material come to market. This week looks set to be a pretty quiet one for the cross. Employment and dairy price data is due from NZ in the next 24 hours whilst in Europe the inflation numbers and the ECB minutes have the most chance of upsetting (Thursday). We have a marginal NZD upside bias at the moment and would favour buying dips to .6380/90 (selling rallies to 1.5649/1.5674).
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
NZD/EURO 0.6445 0.6380 0.6620 0.6420 - 0.6545
EURO/NZD 1.5517 1.5106 1.5674 1.5279 - 1.5576

Friday 12th August 2:30pm(NZT)
The New Zealand dollar sits marginally higher against the Euro since our report on Tuesday. Much of the volatility in the cross this week was seen yesterday over the RBNZ OCR decision. This saw the NZD spike to highs ahead of the .6550 (1.5267) level just after the announcement as traders saw the message coming from the RBNZ as insufficiently dovish to satiate the market’s already elevated expectations of further easing. Data of interest next week starts with the German ZEW on Tuesday, although expect Wednesday’s NZ employment data to have a far greater weight. We favour trade remaining within this week’s range next week.
The current interbank midrate is:    NZDEUR 0.6463    EURNZD 1.5474

The interbank range this week has been:    NZDEUR 0.6392 - 0.6545    EURNZD 1.5279 - 1.5644
Tuesday 9th August 2:30pm(NZT)
The New Zealand dollar continues to remain range bound in trade against the Euro and sits near Friday’s reported levels in current trade. This comes as both the EUR and NZD sit lower against the greenback after Friday’s better than expected US employment data. A sharp dip in the NZD yesterday tested support in the cross around the .6390 level (1.5649 resistance) which held, although better support remains at .6300 (1.5873 resistance). Expect the outcome of Thursday’s RBNZ monetary policy statement to set the tone of trade to close out the week. The move following this statement is difficult to foreshadow, although for now the risk appears to be a market that has pushed the boundary for the extent of further indicated easing.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
NZD/EURO 0.6452 0.6300 0.6470 0.6392 - 0.6493
EURO/NZD 1.5499 1.5456 1.5873 1.5402 - 1.5644

Friday 5th August 12:30pm(NZT)
The New Zealand dollar has remained relatively range bound against the Euro in trade this week. The subdued trade comes against a back-drop of a relatively quiet data schedule from both regions this week. Resistance at .6470 (1.5456 support) remains in place on the week whilst on the NZD downside a minor support level has formed around the .6390 (1.5649 resistance) level. Focus for next week will be Thursday’s RBNZ interest rate decision and statement. Expect an interest rate cut, although it will be down to the tone of the statement to see whether deeper support at .6300 (1.5873 resistance) can be challenged.
The current interbank midrate is:    NZDEUR 0.6447    EURNZD 1.5511

The interbank range this week has been:    NZDEUR 0.6386 - 0.6471    EURNZD 1.5453 - 1.5659
Tuesday 2nd August 3:00pm(NZT)
The New Zealand dollar has firmed marginally against the Euro in trade since Friday. Both currencies were beneficiaries of the USD weakness noted on Friday, although relative gains were seen by the high yielders after the weaker than expected US data. Highs around .6470 (1.5456 lows) is the first NZD resistance (minor), although the stronger key resistance lies above .6600 (1.5152 support). We are expecting a relatively quiet week overall this week with volatility to spike over the RBA today (somewhat) and NZ employment data tomorrow.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
NZD/EURO 0.6422 0.6300 0.6470 0.6358 - 0.6470
EURO/NZD 1.5573 1.5456 1.5873 1.5455 - 1.5728

Friday 29th July 1:45pm(NZT)
The New Zealand dollar sits marginally higher in trade against the Euro this week. Positive momentum in higher yielding currencies before and after yesterday’s US Fed meeting saw the cross move to highs around .6435 (1.5540 lows) this week, although strength in the EUR has moderated the advance in recent trade. Key support for the cross remains ahead of .6300 (1.5873 resistance). We favour rangy conditions with a small upside bias. First focus is the ANZ business confidence data today (NZ) and inflation/GDP numbers from the euro area tonight.
The current interbank midrate is:    NZDEUR 0.6412    EURNZD 1.5595

The interbank range this week has been:    NZDEUR 0.6329 - 0.6437    EURNZD 1.5536 - 1.5800
Tuesday 26th July 2:00pm(NZT)
The New Zealand dollar has drifted up marginally against the Euro since our commentary on Friday. The move comes as the Euro closed on its lows last week as the USD gained against most of its key peers. Data this week looks unlikely to signal a marked change in the direction for this cross, although the EU inflation and GDP prints on Friday have the greatest chance of upsetting. We continue to favour more rangy conditions and see trade remaining within .6300/.6420 (1.5873/1.5576) as being highly likely.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
NZD/EURO .6370 .6300 .6420 .6314 - .6419
EURO/NZD 1.5700 1.5575 1.5875 1.5578 - 1.5837

Friday 22nd July 1:00pm(NZT)
The New Zealand dollar sits unchanged against the Euro since Tuesday’s report. Support in the .6300/10 (1.5873/1.5849) area has held this week’s sell-off as the NZD weakened on the back of a soft inflation print and moves by the RBNZ to target NZ’s overheated property market and elevated exchange rate. These moves have seen expectations lift for rates to be lowered to 1.75% by the end of 2016. We are unsure on the next move while the cross holds first support and suggest with the quiet data calendar due over coming days that trade within .6300/.6420 (1.5873/1.5576) looks most likely.
The current interbank midrate is:    NZDEUR 0.6341    EURNZD 1.5770

The interbank range this week has been:    NZDEUR 0.6314 - 0.6469    EURNZD 1.5458 - 1.5837
Tuesday 19th July 1:00pm(NZT)
The New Zealand dollar remains on a downwards trajectory against the Euro in trade this week. NZ influences have dominated trade in this cross in recent days and include a move by the RBNZ this morning to release a discussion paper on further LVR restrictions aimed at curbing lending to NZ’s overheated housing sector. The move would allow additional scope for the RBNZ to ease in August and comes as expectations for such a move increased after yesterday’s weaker than expect NZ Q2 inflation print. Focus for this week for the cross will be on Thursday’s RBNZ economic update (9am NZT) and later ECB monetary policy meeting. The NZ dollar continues to look weak to us on this cross (like most NZD crosses), although the reaction around looming support at .6300 (1.5873 resistance) will be interesting given the extent of the decline over the last week.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
NZD/EURO .6352 .6300 .6470 .6351 - .6611
EURO/NZD 1.5743 1.5456 1.5873 1.5125 - 1.5745

Friday 15th July 2:00pm(NZT)
The New Zealand dollar has continued to ease from its recent highs against the Euro in trade this week. The move comes as the Euro has edged higher and as many NZD crosses have given up ground this week, particularly so yesterday. The recent high level of many NZD crosses which has seen the NZD/TWI index trade at levels markedly above that forecast by the RBNZ has many concerned that they may take measures to address the strength at their (previously unscheduled) economic market update next Thursday. Look to NZ inflation data on Monday for immediate direction. We now favour selling rallies and fear this correction may extend to deeper support near .6300/.6315 (1.5873/1.5835 resistance) over time.
The current interbank midrate is:    NZDEUR 0.6449    EURNZD 1.5506

The interbank range this week has been:    NZDEUR 0.6443 - 0.6613    EURNZD 1.5121 - 1.5520
Tuesday 12th July 1:00pm(NZT)
The New Zealand dollar has reversed its gains against the Euro since Friday’s report to be trading largely unchanged in current trade. Highs around .6610 (1.5129) were seen in late trade last week on the back of the buying in the ‘risk’ and commodity currencies after the better than expected US employment report. These currencies have since given up much of the gains in trade this week as the USD has rallied in what would be considered a more normal reaction to positive US data. Look for ‘risk’ sentiment to continue to be important this week for this cross given the light data schedules from both regions. We favour buying dips towards first support for now.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
NZD/EURO 0.6537 0.6470 0.6615 0.6410 - 0.6613
EURO/NZD 1.5298 1.5117 1.5456 1.5121 - 1.5600

Friday 8th July 12:00pm(NZT)
The New Zealand dollar has continued to extend it gains against the Euro in trade this week. The latest shift has come on the back of the NZD advance in recent trade which occurred in response to the RBNZ’s soft response at tackling NZ’s housing crisis, this as it revealed little urgency in introducing further macro-prudential housing measures. Uncertainty in Europe has hindered any advances of the EUR/USD exchange rate over the week and this uncertainty will continue over the weeks ahead. This has us continuing to favour buying and NZ dollar dips to .6470/90 ( up to 1.5456/1.5408) in this cross.
The current interbank midrate is:    NZDEUR 0.6528    EURNZD 1.5320

The interbank range this week has been:    NZDEUR 0.6410 - 0.6538    EURNZD 1.5294 - 1.5601
Tuesday 5th July 2:00pm(NZT)
The New Zealand dollar has continued to rally against the Euro in trade since Friday. Demand for currencies with a reduced exposure to the uncertain political and economic landscape in the UK and EU post the Brexit vote continues to drive the shift in this cross. We see little prospect of a reversal in this sentiment in the near future (although note the risk of renewed share market volatility). This has us favouring buying any NZ dollar dip again this week.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
NZD/EURO 0.6472 0.6350 0.6695 0.6352 - 0.6499
EURO/NZD 1.5451 1.4937 1.5748 1.5388 - 1.5743

Friday 1st July 3:00pm(NZT)
Discussion on the UK’s decision to leave the EU on Friday has continued to dominate events in Europe this week. The talk comes as many senior EU leaders push for the UK to notify the EU formally of its exit and begin its talks promptly in a bid to prevent prolonging the economic uncertainty that will linger over the continent while the negotiations take place. Sources have indicated that the ECB was considering weighing looser rules for QE as concerns mount that the Brexit will deplete the pool of assets available for purchase whilst ECB President Draghi warned that the EU growth could be reduced by up to 0.5% over the next three years given Britain’s decision to leave the EU. Data released out of Europe this week has had little consequence on proceedings. German retail sales beat expectations in May, whilst unemployment in Europe’s largest economy declined by more than expectations in June. Preliminary inflation numbers across the euro-zone were seen coming in slightly higher than the consensus for the same month. Manufacturing data will round out the week later today, although once again it will be political news from Europe that looks most likely to drive the Euro into the week’s end.
Impact on this currency pair:
The current interbank midrate is:    NZDEUR 0.6417    EURNZD 1.5584

The interbank range this week has been:    NZDEUR 0.6319 - 0.6469    EURNZD 1.5459 - 1.5826
Tuesday 28th June 2:00pm(NZT)
The New Zealand dollar sits at a similar level to Friday’s report in current trade against the Euro. Volatility has been high since Friday’s decision by the UK to leave the EU. Highs near .6470 (lows 1.5456) came soon after the decision, although trading levels have drifted lower in trade this week on the back of the overnight slide in the NZD/USD exchange rate. We favour buying NZ dollar dips near first support given the ongoing difficulties facing Europe over the weeks/months ahead. Data during the week is light with the Euro-zone inflation numbers on Thursday and ECB minutes being the most important.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
NZD/EURO 0.6372 0.6300 0.6470 0.6267 - 0.6469
EURO/NZD 1.5693 1.5456 1.5873 1.5459 - 1.5956

Friday 24th June 3:00pm(NZT)
The New Zealand dollar has moved higher against the Euro since our report on Tuesday. The move comes as the markets embraces ‘risk’ in anticipation of the UK choosing to remain within the EU when results on the referendum are announced later this afternoon. Expect extreme volatility to close out the week of trade with the result dictating the ultimate shift in this cross. Immediate resistance is eyed around .6400 (1.5625 support), support is seen around .6200 (1.6129 resistance,) although the flow could drive extremes well beyond these levels.
The current interbank midrate is:    NZDEUR 0.6372    EURNZD 1.5692

The interbank range this week has been:    NZDEUR 0.6235 - 0.6400    EURNZD 1.5625 - 1.6040
Tuesday 21st June 2:00pm(NZT)
The New Zealand dollar is trading at similar levels against the Euro to our previous report. Key data out of both regions is lacking this week which will put focus squarely on Thursday’s UK referendum on EU membership. Immediate support and resistance is pegged at .6200/.6300 (1.5873/1.6129) and look for volatility to increase as the week progresses. We expect an exit vote to sustain a NZD topside push in the cross over time (and the reverse to apply), although liquidity and risk considerations add to the complicated picture, especially in the short term.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
NZD/EURO 0.6285 0.6200 0.6330 0.6213 - 0.6298
EURO/NZD 1.5912 1.5798 1.6129 1.5879 - 1.6094

Friday 17th June 3:00pm(NZT)
The New Zealand dollar has lifted moderately against the Euro this week. The move comes as the EUR feels the weight of a shaky GBP and after the NZD rallied on the back of a better than expected Q1 GDP report yesterday. Data is unlikely to be a driver next week as the markets look to the British referendum on EU membership for direction. The implications of an exit are far reaching and the natural impression that would point to upside for this cross on an exit is complicated by the issue of NZD liquidity and global risk aversion. Expect a volatile week and potential for a wide .6150/.6400 (1.6260/1.5625) type range.
The current interbank midrate is:    NZDEUR 0.6269    EURNZD 1.5952

The interbank range this week has been:    NZDEUR 0.6213 - 0.6301    EURNZD 1.5870 - 1.6094
Tuesday 14th June 2:00pm(NZT)
The New Zealand dollar has eased against the Euro since our commentary on Friday. The retracement on the back of last week’s RBNZ inspired gains comes as the market looks to lighten on ‘risk’ currencies as political and economic uncertainty heightens ahead of the UK EU referendum. Economic events to watch this week includes NZ GDP on Thursday and next in the GDT dairy price series. In reality however it looks to be external drivers that will have the greatest influence this week. Momentum for now has again turned the focus to the downside and has us marginally favouring selling rallies on the week.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
NZD/EURO 0.6237 0.6200 0.6330 0.6071 - 0.6311
EURO/NZD 1.6034 1.5798 1.6129 1.5846 - 1.6471

Friday 10th June 3:00pm(NZT)
The New Zealand dollar has rallied strongly against the Euro this week. This has seen the cross reach highs last seen at the end of 2015 after the previous resistance around .6200 (1.6129 support) broke earlier in the week. The move came in advance of yesterday’s RBNZ decision which saw rates maintained at 2.25% and the governor express concern over the impact that further cuts would have on the rampant housing market (NZD+). Events to watch next week include euro-zone inflation and NZ GDP and dairy pricing. NZ dollar sentiment looks the most likely to drive trade again next week. Resistance in the cross is eyed in the .6310/30 area (1.5848/1.5798 support), a sustained break of which should open much higher levels.
The current interbank midrate is:    NZDEUR 0.6287    EURNZD 1.5907

The interbank range this week has been:    NZDEUR 0.6071 - 0.6311    EURNZD 1.5846 - 1.6471
Tuesday 7th June 3:00pm(NZT)
The New Zealand dollar has edged lower against the Euro since our last report. Highs last week reached around .6150 (1.6260) and came ahead of the close as thin liquidity in the NZD drove it higher after the US employment report. Sentiment had already been positive towards the NZD over the week on the back of the sound local data and higher data driven AUD. The RBNZ interest rate decision and any fall-out from today’s RBA rate decision are the key events to watch for this cross this week. We continue to favour consolidation in the cross at present.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
NZD/EURO 0.6088 0.5900 0.6150 0.6029 - 0.6160
EURO/NZD 1.6427 1.6260 1.6949 1.6234 - 1.6588

Thursday 2nd June 1:30pm(NZT)
The New Zealand dollar has put in a solid performance against the Euro this week. Gains have come on the back of the strong bounce seen in the NZD this week on positive data prints (although far from major releases) and key Australian numbers which outperformed and supported the AUD. The ECB meeting later today is the next major event for this cross. No change in monetary policy is expected however. This week’s extremities now provide the interim support and resistance levels (weak levels) although in the big picture the .5800/.6200 (1.7241/1.6129) levels remain far more important.
The current interbank midrate is:    NZDEUR 0.6096    EURNZD 1.6404

The interbank range this week has been:    NZDEUR 0.5993 - 0.6119    EURNZD 1.6342 - 1.6687
Tuesday 31st May 2:30pm(NZT)
The New Zealand dollar continues to trade in holding pattern against the Euro in present trade. The ECB meeting on Thursday looks set as the most likely event to break the lateral price action of late, although in reality the wider range looks set to remain in place (.5800/.6200), (1.7241/1.6129). Expect the door to be left open by the ECB for further easing later in the year and a dovish tone to be maintained which should mean the cross will remain within the first support/resistance levels. We lack any bias on the next move from here for the time being.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
NZD/EURO 0.6024 0.5900 0.6070 0.5984 - 0.6073
EURO/NZD 1.6598 1.6474 1.6949 1.6467 - 1.6711

Friday 27th May 2:00pm(NZT)
This pair has been trapped between the broad parameters of 0.5800 and 0.6200 (1.6130 - 1.7240) since the beginning of the year. Nothing this week has suggested a break out from that range. In fact recently the trading range has narrowed to the even tighter parameters of 0.5900 and 0.6100 (1.6395 - 1.6950). For the time being this pair looks set to continue its sideways trade with no real bias toward sustained strength or weakness. Next week from NZ we have ANZ business confidence and another dairy auction to digest. While in Europe attention will turn to Thursday’s ECB rate meeting and subsequent press conference.
The current interbank midrate is:    NZDEUR 0.6032    EURNZD 1.6578

The interbank range this week has been:    NZDEUR 0.5984 - 0.6073    EURNZD 1.6467 - 1.6711
Tuesday 24th May 2:00pm(NZT)
The New Zealand dollar is largely unchanged against the Euro since our last report. Highs in the interim ahead of .6070 (1.6474) were seen yesterday as the NZD rose on a stronger AUD and change in the June RBNZ rate call by a leading local bank (to no move). Data influences this week look unlikely to drive any sustainable move which leaves commodity and risk sentiment as the most drivers of direction. We lack any real bias on this cross presently given we are trading near the middle of recent bounds seen since early March. Strong resistance is pegged around .6200 (1.6129 support).
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
NZD/EURO 0.6019 0.5900 0.6070 0.5987 - 0.6070
EURO/NZD 1.6615 1.6474 1.6949 1.6476 - 1.6702

Friday 20th May 3:00pm(NZT)
The New Zealand dollar has had a quiet week against the Euro this week, which has seen it etch out small gains over the course of the week. Data out of both regions was scant and has meant it has been the marginal outperformance of the NZD that has caused the move higher as the USD rallied strongly overall. Various data out of Europe could influence next week, although none of it looks particularly likely of driving any large move. We therefore anticipate more of the same with a slightly higher range than this week given the moderate upwards momentum. Resistance beyond .6050 (1.6529 support) is also minor in the .6100/.6120 zone (1.6393/1.6340 support).
The current interbank midrate is:    NZDEUR 0.6037    EURNZD 1.6566

The interbank range this week has been:    NZDEUR 0.5966 - 0.6043    EURNZD 1.6547 - 1.6763
Tuesday 17th May 2:00pm(NZT)
The New Zealand dollar is trading at similar levels to our report on Friday in current trade. Some weakness was observed in initial trade this week after lower openings in the NZD and AUD on the back of the soft Chinese data set released over the weekend. Data events from both regions this week look unlikely to drive the cross materially in either direction so for now we anticipate range trading (~.5950/.6050),(1.6807/1.6529) until Friday.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
NZD/EURO 0.5987 0.5900 0.6050 0.5907 - 0.6010
EURO/NZD 1.6703 1.6529 1.6949 1.6640 - 1.6930

Friday 13th May 3:00pm(NZT)
The New Zealand dollar has managed to recover well in trade against the Euro this week to trade near its opening levels of the week in current trade. The recovery has meant minor fresh support has formed ahead of .5900 (1.6949 resistance) and came after the NZ Financial Stability report (NZD +ve) and on the back of improving commodity prices overall as the week wore on. Resistance beyond .6000 (1.6667 support) is eyed around .6050 (1.6529 support). Look for commodity and risk influences to dominate next week.
The current interbank midrate is:    NZDEUR 0.5982    EURNZD 1.6718

The interbank range this week has been:    NZDEUR 0.5907 - 0.6014    EURNZD 1.6627 - 1.6930
Tuesday 10th May 2:00pm(NZT)
The New Zealand dollar has continued to fall against the Euro since our latest report. Pressure from falling commodity prices and the resultant selling of currencies with commodity exposure, particularly since the RBA rate move last week has been behind the fall. We favour selling NZ dollar rallies in this cross based on a continuation of this theme. Support comes in much lower around the .5800 (1.7241 resistance) level presently. Look for sentiment towards the commodity currencies to drive this week given the relatively low impact data events due from both countries.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
NZD/EURO 0.5925 0.5800 0.6000 0.5925 - 0.6115
EURO/NZD 1.6909 1.6667 1.7241 1.6354 - 1.6879

Friday 6th May 2:00pm(NZT)
The New Zealand dollar is drifting in current trade against the UK pound. Highs this week have been limited to around .4800 (lows 2.0833) which should now be seen as the first resistance area. Key support remains at .4650 (2.1505 resistance), although we favour a drift higher given the recent soft data out of the UK. Of immediate interest will be tonight’s US data whilst next week will be dominated by the UK BoE monetary policy decision and the sentiment that prevails from the accompanying statement.
The current interbank midrate is:    NZDEUR 0.6038    EURNZD 1.6562

The interbank range this week has been:    NZDEUR 0.5971 - 0.6146    EURNZD 1.6272 - 1.6746
Tuesday 3rd May 2:20pm(NZT)
The New Zealand dollar has eased marginally against the Euro since our report on Friday. Gains in the Euro from better than expected local GDP/PMI data and from a weaker USD overall have managed to outpace those seen by the NZD in recent trade. Look for euro-zone PMI indicators and more importantly the NZ employment data tomorrow along with the US employment data on Friday to impact. We lack bias and expect trade to be contained this week by the range of the previous two weeks (~.6030/.6205) (1.6584/1.6116).
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
NZD/EURO 0.6105 0.6030 0.6210 0.6041 - 0.6164
EURO/NZD 1.6380 1.6103 1.6584 1.6222 - 1.6554

Friday 29th April 2:00pm(NZT)
The interbank range this week has been:    NZDEUR 0.6041 - 0.6164    EURNZD 1.6222 - 1.6554
The New Zealand dollar has reversed its early week declines against the Euro in trade since yesterday morning. The move comes largely on the back of the sharp rally in the NZD after yesterday’s NZ OCR review which saw the RBNZ leave rates on hold noting strong migration levels and the resultant pressure on housing. A cautious US Fed has also seen the higher yielding currencies (like the NZD) outpace the lower yielders like the EUR since the FOMC statement yesterday. First support for the NZD has now moved to this week’s lows around .6030 (1.6584 resistance). Resistance remains around .6210 (1.6103 support). Look for continued direction to be set from the commodity price environment. NZ employment data is due for release on Wednesday.
The current interbank midrate is:    NZDEUR 0.6128    EURNZD 1.6317

The interbank range this week has been:    NZDEUR 0.6041 - 0.6164    EURNZD 1.6222 - 1.6554
Tuesday 26th April 2:20pm(NZT)
The New Zealand dollar has continued to weaken against the Euro since our report on Friday. This comes on the back of the declines seen largely across the board in the commodity currencies which were led by falls in the price of oil and iron ore overnight. Commodity considerations will continue to drive the pair this week, although the aftermath from the NZ OCR and US FOMC decision on Thursday will likely have a significant impact. We lack any bias on the cross this week whilst acknowledging that the RBNZ/FOMC outcomes will dictate. Support beyond that seen at .6060 (1.6502 resistance) is seen at .5925 (1.6878 resistance) and is more critical to a further move lower.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
NZD/EURO 0.6097 0.6060 0.6210 0.6071 - 0.6209
EURO/NZD 1.6401 1.6103 1.6502 1.6104 - 1.6473

Friday 22nd April 2:00pm(NZT)
The New Zealand dollar has eased from its highs (just above .6200/below 1.6129) against the EUR set in the middle of the week. This area continues to offer decent NZD resistance for the time being ,whilst on the downside we look to around .6060 (resistance 1.6502) for first NZ dollar support. Commodity considerations which have heavily influenced the NZD have again been a key factor behind the swings in the cross this week. The lack of urgency on the part of the ECB in flagged further easing overnight has also lent some support to the EUR in recent trade. Looking into next week we wait for the RBNZ OCR decision on Thursday for direction outside of the typical commodity/risk influences.
The current interbank midrate is:    NZDEUR .6125    EURNZD 1.6325

The interbank range this week has been:    NZDEUR .6071 - .6209    EURNZD 1.6104 - 1.6473
Tuesday 19th April 2:40pm(NZT)
The New Zealand dollar has enjoyed solid gains against the Euro since our report on Friday. These come on the back of the sharp reversal in commodity currencies in recent hours which initially fell heavily yesterday in response to the Doha oil meeting impasse. A strong rebound in the price of oil noted since has been helped by news of a Kuwaiti oil strike. This week should be an interesting one for the NZDEUR, as we look into the ECB meeting outcome (overnight Thursday). Tonight’s GDT dairy auction should provide some interest also. For now momentum in this cross is higher. A break of .6200 (1.6129) opens .6310 (1.5848).
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
NZD/EURO 0.6175 0.6060 0.6200 0.6008 - 0.6183
EURO/NZD 1.6195 1.6129 1.6502 1.6175 - 1.6643

Friday 15th April 2:00pm(NZT)
The New Zealand dollar has rallied against the Euro since our report on Tuesday, although currently sits off its highs after faltering ahead of resistance at .6145 (1.6273 support). The move higher comes after the EUR has experienced a fall of ~1.7% against the USD from its weekly highs. Heavy selling in the NZD/AUD cross exchange rate has mitigated the gains of the NZD in the last couple of days however. Look for the NZ inflation report on Monday to see whether the current upswing can extend beyond resistance or risk reverting to first support at .5925 (1.6878 resistance).
The current interbank midrate is:    NZDEUR 0.6092    EURNZD 1.6414

The interbank range this week has been:    NZDEUR 0.5951 - 0.6140    EURNZD 1.6286 - 1.6803
Tuesday 12th April 2:30pm(NZT)
The New Zealand dollar has lifted marginally against the Euro since our last report. This comes on the back of quiet data calendars from both regions. The lift in trade this week has come largely on the back of the gains that have been seen in the commodity currencies and the CRB commodity index. Event calendars are again quiet this week so we see little chance of any material move beyond the range seen last week. Look for risk appetite and commodity moves (NZD) to drive trade, although European inflation reads may interest.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
NZD/EURO 0.6012 0.5925 0.6145 0.5943 - 0.6021
EURO/NZD 1.6633 1.6273 1.6878 1.6609 - 1.6827

Friday 8th April 2:00pm(NZT)
The New Zealand dollar has drifted against the Euro since our last report on Tuesday, although trades markedly lower on the week so far. Strong demand for the JPY and an easing in commodity currencies/prices in a moderate ‘risk off’ environment overnight has caused the NZD to set fresh weekly lows against the EUR in trade overnight. Support for the cross remains at .5925 (1.6878 resistance), very minor resistance lies just above .6000 (1.6667 support) presently. Look for European data and risk/commodity currency movements to drive pricing in this cross next week.
The current interbank midrate is:    NZDEUR 0.5963    EURNZD 1.6769

The interbank range this week has been:    NZDEUR 0.5943 - 0.6088    EURNZD 1.6425 - 1.6827
Tuesday 5th April 2:30pm(NZT)
The New Zealand dollar has shifted markedly lower against the Euro since our report on Friday. Much of the move has occurred this week on the back of the overnight decline seen in commodity prices and after this morning’s poor NZIER Business Confidence reading. Moderate ‘risk off’ selling later on Friday also weighed on the NZD. We would expect the pace of this decline to moderate as we near support this week given the relatively light weight nature of the respective data calendars. Comments from ECB President Draghi on Friday should be noted.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
NZD/EURO 0.5970 0.5925 0.6145 0.5963 - 0.6143
EURO/NZD 1.6750 1.6273 1.6878 1.6280 - 1.6770

Friday 1st April 3:30pm(NZT)
The New Zealand dollar has rallied well in trade against the EUR this week. Both currencies were significant benefactors at the expense of the USD which came about as a result of the dovish comments on US rates from Fed Chair Janet Yellen. Gains in this cross likely came from the technical buying which was seen when the NZD/USD exchange rate broke .6900. The NZD set highs around .6145 (lows 1.6273) in the cross on the week and this level should now form first minor NZD resistance. Minor support is seen at .5975 (1.6736 resistance) around last week’s lows. We lack any bias, a catalyst for the next move is not immediately obvious, although any risk flow after tonight’s US employment data may be one.
The current interbank midrate is:    NZDEUR 0.6080    EURNZD 1.6446

The interbank range this week has been:    NZDEUR 0.5979 - 0.6143    EURNZD 1.6280 - 1.6725
Tuesday 29th March 2:30pm(NZT)
The New Zealand dollar is drifting in trade against the Euro this week. Quiet data calendars out of both regions and holiday trade have cemented a relatively tight range since our last report, which is likely to be the case again this week. Support last week formed ahead of .5975 (1.6736 resistance), although better NZD support lies more distant at .5925 (1.6868 resistance). We have little bias this week and expect more lateral trading.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
NZD/EURO 0.6014 0.5925 0.6065 0.5978 - 0.6035
EURO/NZD 1.6627 1.6488 1.6868 1.6569 - 1.6727

Tuesday 22nd March 3:30pm(NZT)
The New Zealand dollar is edging higher in current trade against the Euro. Gains at the end of last week managed to marginally breach the resistance levels set a few days earlier. Reduced liquidity in the NZD post the FOMC meeting (and subsequent USD selling) was a key reason behind the surge, although the weaker USD is typically supportive of US$ priced commodities (commodity currency +ve). It should be a quieter week this week. We see the European data which is scheduled for release this week as being relatively unlikely of leading to moves outside of last week’s range.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
NZD/EURO 0.6022 0.5925 0.6065 0.5927 - 0.6068
EURO/NZD 1.6607 1.6488 1.6868 1.6480 - 1.6871

Friday 18th March 1:30pm(NZT)
The New Zealand dollar has recovered well against the Euro in trade this week. The initial part of the week was dominated by a slide in the NZD, which saw the pair marginally breach last week’s lows to trade to around .5925 (high 1.6868). The move came on the back of an easing in commodity currencies which took the NZD lower. The .5925/.5935 (1.6868/1.6849) level continues to be the NZD support focus for now, whilst on topside the .6050/55 (1.6529/1.6515) level again forms resistance. This level was challenged at the end of the week post the US FOMC meeting which saw the NZD outperform the EUR on reduced liquidity as USD longs headed for the exits. The lowered Fed interest rate path has been positive for risk currencies (like the NZD) and commodity prices. Look for these issues to again dominate trade over coming days.
The current interbank midrate is:    NZDEUR 0.6037    EURNZD 1.6564

The interbank range this week has been:    NZDEUR 0.5927 - 0.6060    EURNZD 1.6503 - 1.6871
Tuesday 15th March 1:30pm(NZT)
The New Zealand dollar has managed to marginally recover against the Euro in trade since our last report. Last week was a poor one for this cross as it felt the full effect of differing take-outs from the respective central bank monetary policy decisions. The move by the RBNZ to cut came as a surprise to most which saw the NZD trade lower to near .5935 (high 1.6849). This very minor support level is again the target for the current slide. Friday’s bounce highs which came on the back of a stronger NZD/USD exchange rate (AUD/commodity price inspired) is immediate resistance. Dairy price data tonight is the first event of interest. NZ GDP data will feature after the FOMC meeting announcement on Thursday.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
NZD/EURO 0.6018 0.5935 0.6050 0.5940 - 0.6193
EURO/NZD 1.6615 1.6529 1.6849 1.6148 - 1.6835

Friday 11th March 1:30pm(NZT)
The New Zealand dollar has had a torrid week against the EUR this week. Falls from the highs totalled over 4% at one stage during trade overnight, and have come largely over the last 36 hours. The move comes on the back of the divergence seen in the monetary policy outlook for the respective central banks. This comes after yesterday’s surprise decision by the RBNZ to cut interest rates (and indicate more are possible)  and the overnight indication by the ECB that further cuts to its deposit rate are unlikely (after last night’s 10 bps cut, and expanded stimulus announcement). We favour selling rallies from here, and would look for advances into the .6000/.6025 (1.6667/1.6598) region as an opportunity to sell.
The current interbank midrate is:    NZDEUR 0.5970    EURNZD 1.6752

The interbank range this week has been:    NZDEUR 0.5940 - 0.6201    EURNZD 1.6127 - 1.6835
Friday 4th March 6:00pm(NZT)
The New Zealand dollar has put in a solid performance against the Euro during trade this week. The gains have come on the back of the increased demand seen for currencies with commodity (and to a lesser extent risk) exposure over the course of the week. Resistance to any further rally is seen initially at the weekly highs (~.6170, 1.6207 support) and then .6255 (1.5987) beyond. Key support is still noted in the .5980/.5990 zone (1.6722-1.6694 resistance). Respective fall-out from the interest rate meetings from both regions next week are likely to be the dominating influences next week.
The current interbank midrate is:    NZDEUR 0.6140    EURNZD 1.6286

The interbank range this week has been:    NZDEUR 0.6011 - 0.6170    EURNZD 1.6206 - 1.6637
Tuesday 1st March 2:30pm(NZT)
The New Zealand dollar reversed sharply against the Euro in trade at the end of last week. The fall came after a slew of better than expected U.S. data on Friday which led to a broad based rally in the USD, a rally which impacted the NZD/USD much harder than the EUR/USD. A poor performance by the latter overnight has helped the cross lift from the NZD lows however. Support is still noted in the .5980/.5990 zone (1.6722-1.6694 resistance) whilst Fridays NZD high’s should now form the target (~.6140, 1.6287) to any NZ dollar sustained rally.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
NZD/EURO 0.6066 0.5980 0.6140 0.5994 - 0.6144
EURO/NZD 1.6484 1.6287 1.6722 1.6277 - 1.6683

Friday 26th February 2:00pm(NZT)
The New Zealand dollar is trading near its weekly highs against the Euro in current trade. These highs were also seen earlier in the week (~.6105, 1.6380 lows) before the cross fell to lows around .5990 (up to 1.6700) on the back of the sharp retracement seen in the NZD/USD exchange rate during the middle part of the week. Key NZD support is now seen around this level (.5980-.5990,1.6722-1.6694 resistance). The weak sentiment spilling over from the GBP and the associated concern over a British exit from the E.U. in the middle of 2016 has us favouring higher levels once .6105 (1.6380) is cleared. The next NZD topside target would be .6180 (1.6181).
The current interbank midrate is:    NZDEUR 0.6115    EURNZD 1.6352

The interbank range this week has been:    NZDEUR 0.5920 - 0.6126    EURNZD 1.6323 - 1.6891
Tuesday 23th February 4:00pm(NZT)
The New Zealand dollar has rallied strongly against the Euro in trade so far this week. This comes on the back of the solid gains seen by the NZD/USD overnight as commodity currencies benefitted from increased risk appetite and a rally in key commodity pricing. The EUR/USD in contrast has felt the weight of poor sentiment that is pervading the market over the likelihood of a British exit from the EU at the 23rd June UK referendum. Key support is now noted at .5980 (1.6722 resistance), although some minor support should be seen ahead around .6050 (1.6529 resistance). Minor resistance above the overnight NZ dollar highs should be seen around .6180 (1.6181).
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
NZD/EURO 0.6074 0.5980 0.6180 0.5871 - 0.6105
EURO/NZD 1.6463 1.6181 1.6722 1.6381 - 1.7033

Friday 19th February 2:00pm(NZT)
The New Zealand dollar has had a mixed week against the EUR this week although currently sits near its highs for the week, highs which are both well above the lows and opening levels of the week. This comes on the back of the decline in the EUR/USD exchange rate seen during the week, which has fallen in part on the back of the likelihood of further ECB easing. NZ dollar support remains around .5870/.5880 (1.7036/1.7007 resistance). On the topside key resistance above this week’s highs is noted around .6050 (1.6529 support). We marginally favour higher levels next week, although again risk sentiment towards the NZD will be important.
The current interbank midrate is:    NZDEUR 0.5972    EURNZD 1.6746

The interbank range this week has been:    NZDEUR 0.5871 - 0.5986    EURNZD 1.6706 - 1.7033
Tuesday 16th February 2:00pm(NZT)
The New Zealand dollar has eased from its recent highs against the Euro having moved up in early trade this week. A disappointing N.Z. retail sales release has seen the cross ease this morning although for the meantime the simultaneously soft EUR/USD and NZD/USD exchange rates mean this cross looks set for more “range trading” this week. Key support is seen at .5880 (1.7007 resistance), whilst above .5980 (1.6722) key resistance at .6050 (1.6529 support) is unlikely to be challenged.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
NZD/EURO 0.5955 0.5880 0.5980 0.5815 - 0.5983
EURO/NZD 1.6793 1.6722 1.7007 1.6713 - 1.7197

Friday 12th February 2:00pm(NZT)
The New Zealand dollar has seen whippy directionless trade against the EUR this week. Moves in the NZD/EUR have been dictated by flow and liquidity concerns particularly so in the NZD/USD exchange rate as market players have moved to reduce their USD exposures during the week. These concerns look set to dominate trade again next week. Levels are messy in this environment although some resistance was again seen around the .5965 (1.6764 support) level during the week. The .6050 level (1.6529) appears more key should the current upswing persist. Support is seen at .5880 (1.7007 resistance), we lack any bias due to the unpredictable nature of flow and liquidity.
The current interbank midrate is:    NZDEUR 0.5925    EURNZD 1.6878

The interbank range this week has been:    NZDEUR 0.5815 - 0.6018    EURNZD 1.6617 - 1.7197
Tuesday 9th February 3:00pm(NZT)
The New Zealand dollar has slipped against the EUR since our last report. This comes on the back of the risk aversion selling in the NZD and safety buying in the EUR that has occurred as a result the heightened financial market uncertainty in recent days. Global growth and credit fears will continue to remain at the forefront of investor thinking in this environment and this has us favouring selling NZD rallies in this cross while this sentiment dominates. Minor resistance ahead of .6050 (1.6529 support) has now formed around .5965 (1.6764 support).
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
NZD/EURO .5910 .5880 .6050 .5897 - .6055
EURO/NZD 1.6921 1.6530 1.7010 1.6516 - 1.6957

Friday 5th February 2:00pm(NZT)
The New Zealand dollar sits near its opening levels against the Euro this week in current trade. This comes on the back of sharp surge in both the NZD/USD and EUR/USD exchange rates (on the back of an unwinding of the over-extended long USD positioning). This has somewhat surprisingly seen the EUR move higher keep pace with the NZD. This comes even after local events which included a strong Q4 employment report and comments from the RBNZ Governor that were taken by the market as NZD positive. Immediate NZD resistance is pegged around .6050 (support 1.6529) whilst key support is noted around the .5880 (resistance 1.7007) level. Next week’s relatively light-weight data calendar from both regions has us favouring trade within these bounds next week.
The current interbank midrate is:    NZDEUR 0.6005    EURNZD 1.6653

The interbank range this week has been:    NZDEUR 0.5913 - 0.6055    EURNZD 1.6516 - 1.6912
Tuesday 2nd February 2:00pm(NZT)
The New Zealand dollar has firmed in recent trade against the Euro and has (somewhat surprisingly) reversed all of the losses seen last week after the RBNZ opened the door more explicitly for further rate cuts at the cash rate meeting on Thursday. The next 36 hours will be critical to whether these gains can be consolidated given the heavy local event calendar (dairy pricing, employment and the RBNZ Governor speech). The NZ dollar looks in better shape presently than we have seen for a while, although the pending release schedule will hold the key to whether this theme can prevail.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
NZD/EURO 0.5999 0.5930 0.6050 0.5881 - 0.6021
EURO/NZD 1.6669 1.6529 1.6863 1.6608 - 1.7003

Friday 29th January 1:30pm(NZT)
Moves lower in the New Zealand dollar against the Euro this week came mainly towards the latter part of the week after yesterday’s RBNZ central bank meeting. The meeting opened the door for further policy easing this year in order to bolster the presently low inflation rate which currently sits well below the Reserve Bank’s 1-3% target (at just 0.1%). Sentiment from this statement has seen the NZD performance lag in the weaker USD environment overnight. Local data events (employment/dairy pricing) and general risk sentiment will likely dominate moves in this cross next week, we favour selling NZD rallies towards .6000 (1.6667).
The current interbank midrate is:    NZDEUR 0.5920    EURNZD 1.6892

The interbank range this week has been:    NZDEUR 0.5881 - 0.6048    EURNZD 1.6535 - 1.7003
Tuesday 26th January 4:00pm(NZT)
The NZD has eased from its recent highs against the Euro, like most of the other crosses covered this reflects the recent weakness seen in the NZD/USD exchange rate after the strong bounce last week. Commodity currency and risk sentiment continues to be a primary driver for these moves although this week’s RBNZ interest rate decision on Thursday will add additional cause for volatility. We favour selling towards last week’s highs (first resistance) in the current environment although see a move to this level prior to the RBNZ meeting as being very unlikely.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
NZD/EURO 0.5925 0.5800 0.6050 0.5791 - 0.6048
EURO/NZD 1.6878 1.6529 1.7241 1.6535 - 1.7269

Friday 22nd January 2:30pm(NZT)
The NZD has had a choppy week’s trade this week against the Euro on the back of heavy ‘risk’ flow amidst the continued financial and commodity market uncertainty. The mid week miss in the Q4 NZ inflation data saw the cross trade to lows around the .5800 (1.7241) level, although it now trades near its highs on the back of the improving overnight market sentiment. Next week’s RBNZ central bank meeting on Thursday is the key event risk for this cross next week. We marginally favour selling this NZ dollar bounce in the .6050-90 region (buying 1.6529/1.6420) ahead of the meeting next week as the market volatility takes the shine off the NZD/USD exchange rate appeal.
The current interbank midrate is:    NZDEUR 0.6018    EURNZD 1.6617

The interbank range this week has been:    NZDEUR 0.5791 - 0.6029    EURNZD 1.6585 - 1.7269
Tuesday 19th January 2:00pm(NZT)
It has been a wild ride for this pair so far in 2016. Wider market risk aversion has seen the dual drivers of New Zealand dollar weakness and Euro strength force the cross rate to a low of 0.5839 (above 1.7126) from the 0.6300 (1.5873) level it started the year. It’s hard to say if the worst is behind us and for the time being at least the risks remain skewed to the NZD downside. The pair would need to break above resistance, now seen around 0.5980 (support 1.6722) to alleviate the immediate NZ dollar downside pressure. We have plenty to digest this week that could influence including a dairy auction tonight and NZ inflation data tomorrow. Attention will then turn to Thursday’s ECB meeting and just what the central bank has to say about recent Euro strength.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
NZD/EURO 0.5920 0.5840 0.5980 0.5839 - 0.6093
EURO/NZD 1.6892 1.6722 1.7123 1.6412 - 1.7126

Friday 15th January 2:00pm(NZT)
The NZD has continued to remain under pressure against the Euro in trade this week although sits well above its weekly lows (~.5875, 1.7021) presently. Data flow out of both regions has been light which has meant the losses have come largely on the back of the wider market risk aversion inspired falls in the NZD/USD exchange rate. Some recovery from the NZD was seen overnight as the Euro eased on the back of the ECB minutes. We see this week’s bounds (~.5875/1.7021-.6090/1.6420) as likely containing next week’s range also. NZ inflation and dairy price data and the ECB meeting are the key events to watch next week.
The current interbank midrate is:    NZDEUR 0.5980    EURNZD 1.6722

The interbank range this week has been:    NZDEUR 0.5877 - 0.6139    EURNZD 1.6290 - 1.7015
Tuesday 12th January 2:00pm(NZT)
The New Zealand dollar closed 2015 on highs not seen in over six months against the U.K. pound (.4650, 2.1505). In part on the back of a solid end of year rally in the NZD/USD exchange rate. However, the story so far for 2016 has been quite different as the NZD/USD reversed all of those end of year gains and fell through support around the .6600 level on the back of the sharp increase seen in risk aversion as Chinese economic concerns mounted last week. These concerns have placed further pressure on commodity prices (ex. Gold) and commodity linked currencies. The key U.K. data was soft last week however, and we expect this sell-off to be contained by .4450 (2.2472) for now. Immediate focus for this cross is the BOE interest rate meeting on Friday morning.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
NZD/EURO 0.6040 0.5900 0.6320 0.5938 - 0.6257
EURO/NZD 1.6556 1.5823 1.6949 1.5981 - 1.6840

Tuesday 22nd December 2:00pm(NZT)
The NZD is languishing in recent trade against the Euro and presently trades near the middle of the range seen over the last week. Current momentum appears to be for marginal NZD losses in this cross over the holiday period, although the unpredictable nature of the thin holiday trading markets will likely provide for spikes in both directions. The data calendar is light out of both regions over the Christmas break. Key support is seen at .6000 (1.6667 resistance). Resistance above last week’s .6235 (1.6038) highs is pegged around the .6320 (1.5823) level.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
NZD/EURO .6213 .6000 .6320 .6154- -.6240
EURO/NZD 1.6097 1.5823 1.6670 1.6025 - 1.6250

Friday 18th December 2:30pm(NZT)
The NZD has eased from its highs (~.6235, 1.6038) seen this week against the Euro, most of the losses have occurred overnight on the back of the falls seen in commodities and commodity based currencies. We lack any real bias over coming days especially as moves can become dictated by the thinning and often unpredictable NZD liquidity during holiday markets. Key support is distant at .6000 (resistance 1.6667) although some smaller support may exist near .6080 (1.6447 resistance). Resistance above this week’s highs is seen near .6320 (1.5823 support).
The current interbank midrate is:    NZDEUR 0.6184    EURNZD 1.6172

The interbank range this week has been:    NZDEUR 0.6082 - 0.6240    EURNZD 1.6025 - 1.6441
Tuesday 15th December 2:00pm(NZT)
The NZD is consolidating in current trade against the Euro. Comments from the RBNZ at last week’s cash rate meeting which alluded to the rate cut potentially being the last in the recent series helped drive the NZD off its lows. We lack any bias for this cross for now, and note first resistance around and ahead of .6215 (support 1.6090). Key support is seen at the .6000 (resistance 1.6667) level. Tests for this cross come from the overnight GDT dairy auction, and the NZ Q3 current account and GDP data on Wednesday and Thursday respectively.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
NZD/EURO .6160 .6000 .6215 .6009- .6193
EURO/NZD 1.6233 1.6090 1.6667 1.6147 - 1.6641

Friday 11th December 2:30pm(NZT)
The downtrend (post the ECB meeting) seen by the New Zealand dollar against the Euro reversed sharply yesterday after the RBNZ cash rate meeting. Apparent indications from the RBNZ that further cuts to the present 2.5% cash rate were unlikely, drove the gains (rates were moved from 2.75% to 2.5% yesterday). First resistance continues to lie around .6215 (support 1.6090) and then the important .6325 (1.5810 level). First support now comes in at .6000 (resistance 1.6667). We moderately favour selling rallies for the time being after the sharp bounce of the last 24 hours.
The current interbank midrate is:    NZDEUR 0.6170    EURNZD 1.6207

The interbank range this week has been:    NZDEUR 0.6009 - 0.6218    EURNZD 1.6082 - 1.6641
Tuesday 8th December 2:30pm(NZT)
The New Zealand dollar recovered well against the Euro on Friday after the sharp ECB inspired falls seen earlier in the day. having said that, it remains on the back foot again in current trade on the back of commodity inspired selling.  First resistance for this cross is around .6215 (support 1.6090) where it reached in late Friday trade, and then the important .6325 (1.5810) level. Critical support is seen at .6035 (resistance 1.6570) and should be tested if the RBNZ cuts interest rates as most predict on Thursday. We favour selling NZD rallies for now, but note the extreme RBNZ risk should an interest rate cut not come.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
NZD/EURO 0.6130 0.6035 0.6215 0.6066 - 0.6319
EURO/NZD 1.6313 1.6090 1.6570 1.5825 - 1.6486

Friday 4th December 2:00pm(NZT)
The New Zealand dollar has fallen sharply against the Euro in trade overnight after the market reacted swiftly to the ECB’s failure to expand the monthly stimulus beyond EUR 60bn (75Bn exp.). Prior to this the cross had traded to near the important .6325 (1.5810) resistance level. This came as the NZD coat-tailed the AUD higher and the EUR felt the weight of heavy selling prior to the ECB announcement. We now favour selling rallies towards .6200 (1.6130), although note the void of levels after the large decline of the last 24 hrs. Key support remains at the .6035 (resistance 1.6570) level and will likely be breached should the RBNZ cut at next Thursday’s cash rate announcement.
The current interbank midrate is:    NZDEUR 0.6112    EURNZD 1.6361

The interbank range this week has been:    NZDEUR 0.6066 - 0.6319    EURNZD 1.5825 - 1.6486
Tuesday 1st December 4:00pm(NZT)
The New Zealand dollar continues to perform well against the Euro ahead of this Thursday’s key ECB monetary policy meeting. Direction for this cross for the immediate future will be determined by the outcome of the extent of the likely expansion of stimulus seen from the ECB. Whilst current momentum for this cross is for higher NZD levels, the current EUR positioning would likely see this cross retrace should the ECB under deliver on the market’s stimulus expectations. Key support is distant at .6035 (resistance 1.6570), although initial support is seen around .6150 (resistance 1.6260). A risk-on theme which may develop should the market see a larger than expected stimulus programme as risk-asset supportive should open the .6325 (1.5810) level.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
NZD/EURO 0.6242 0.6035 0.6325 0.6107 - 0.6253
EURO/NZD 1.6021 1.5810 1.6570 1.5991 - 1.6374

Friday 27th November 2:30pm(NZT)
The New Zealand dollar has traded firmly against the Euro this week, although sits just adrift of its highs currently. This has come about despite a relatively light-weight data calendar in both regions, although continued pressure has been exerted on the Euro as expectations of further policy accommodation at next week’s ECB meeting intensify. First selling is now noted around .6220 ( buying 1.6077) near this week’s NZD highs, although this should provide little resistance to a dovish ECB outcome. Additional resistance is pegged around .6325 (support1.5810), albeit this does not remain in any danger quite yet. Key support continues to be seen at the .6035 level (resistance 1.6570).
The current interbank midrate is:    NZDEUR 0.6200    EURNZD 1.6129

The interbank range this week has been:    NZDEUR 0.6107 - 0.6214    EURNZD 1.6092 - 1.6374
Tuesday 24th November 3:00pm(NZT)
The New Zealand dollar has eased from its highs set around .6175 (lows 1.6194) which were seen late last week after the surge in the AUD/USD exchange rate (NZD/USD followed) and lift in the NZX dairy futures. Weakness in key commodity prices saw the AUD/USD fall heavily yesterday during our session, the NZD/USD was also dragged lower during the day, even after the recent NZD/AUD exchange rate decline. A quiet data calendar should see this cross well contained within recent ranges during trade this week.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
NZD/EURO 0.6120 0.6035 0.6175 0.6045 - 0.6180
EURO/NZD 1.6340 1.6194 1.6570 1.6180 - 1.6543

Thursday 19th November 1:00pm(NZT)
This pair has been largely range bound between 0.6030 and 0.6160 for much of the past month. Recent weakness in the New Zealand dollar, on the back of declining commodity prices, is been matched by weakness in the Euro as we draw closer to potential monetary easing by the ECB in December. As such the cross rate is going nowhere fast. The pair will eventually break out of this range so watch the key levels of 0.6030 and 0.6160 for an indication of where the market wants to go.
The current interbank midrate is:    NZDEUR 0.6070    EURNZD 1.6474

The interbank range this week has been:    NZDEUR 0.6033 - 0.6133    EURNZD 1.6304 - 1.6576
Tuesday 17th November 3:00pm(NZT)
The New Zealand dollar trades towards the middle of recent ranges against the Euro presently. This comes after moderate declines in both the NZD (risk-off) and EUR (expected ECB easing) over recent days. We continue to favour more sideways drifting in this cross while .6035 (1.6570) holds, although marginally favour selling rallies towards .6120 (buy dips to 1.6340). Immediate focus for this cross is tonight’s GDT dairy auction.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
NZD/EURO 0.6063 0.6035 0.6120 0.6033 - 0.6133
EURO/NZD 1.6493 1.6340 1.6570 1.6304 - 1.6576

Friday 13th November 2:00pm(NZT)
The New Zealand dollar trades near its weekly lows against the Euro presently (.6040, highs 1.6556) which comes after a strong rally overnight in the EUR/USD exchange rate from below 1.0700. We favour selling rallies in this cross and expect the downside to continue especially if .6035 breaks (1.6570). Risk sentiment and data flow will be pivotal for this to occur but in the meantime we see rallies struggling beyond this week’s highs (~.6120, low’s 1.6340).
The current interbank midrate is:    NZDEUR 0.6060    EURNZD 1.6502

The interbank range this week has been:    NZDEUR 0.6046 - 0.6125    EURNZD 1.6326 - 1.6540
Tuesday 10th November 1:30pm(NZT)
The New Zealand dollar trades well down against the Euro over the last week after setting highs near .6150 (1.6260). The NZD downside momentum seen after the poor latest GDT dairy auction and weak NZ Q3 employment report has subsided in light of the recent increased speculation of an ECB easing at its next December meeting. With a light data calendar this week in both NZ and Europe, we expect this cross to be contained well within last week ranges.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
NZD/EURO 0.6080 0.6035 0.6150 0.6039 - 0.6154
EURO/NZD 1.6447 1.6260 1.6570 1.6250 - 1.6560

Friday 6th November 1:00pm(NZT)
The New Zealand dollar has fallen from its highs above .6150 (1.6260) against the Euro this week as the latest weak GDT dairy price auction and NZ Q3 employment report weighed. It trades up from lows seen near .6040 (high 1.6556) however, as the Euro has continued to decline during the week on the back of increasing expectations of further ECB stimulus at its December meeting. We expect further moderate easing in this cross over the week ahead before the market looks for fresh direction from the release of European GDP data on Friday. Initial selling should lie around .6100 (1.6393) and then .6150 (1.6260), whilst a break of this week’s lows should invite more downside.
The current interbank midrate is:    NZDEUR 0.6070    EURNZD 1.6474

The interbank range this week has been:    NZDEUR 0.6039 - 0.6164    EURNZD 1.6223 - 1.6560
Tuesday 3rd November 5:30pm(NZT)
The New Zealand dollar remains well supported against the Euro for now, although we note a failure to post any further upside over the last nearly 2 weeks. The .6035/50 (~1.6570-1.6530) zone now appears to be key NZD support and may be tested if the NZ data-flow in the next 24 hours disappoints materially. First resistance is around the .6160 (support 1.6234) level and .6185 (1.6168) beyond. The NZD downside appears quite vulnerable given the solid gains seen since mid-September should the data not meet expectations. Especially consider in light of Governor Wheeler’s expressed concern over the recent NZD strength.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
NZD/EURO 0.6130 0.6050 0.6160 0.6056 - 0.6164
EURO/NZD 1.6313 1.6520 1.6234 1.6223 - 1.6513

Friday 30th October 2:30pm(NZT)
The New Zealand dollar remains well supported against the Euro for the time being, after the dovish signals from the ECB last week. However, the upside momentum has waned after this week’s RBNZ cash rate meeting which noted the downside risks to the NZ interest rate path, should the recent currency strength persist. Decent selling is now forming around .6160 (1.6234) with first demand being seen around .6050 (resistance 1.6520), further support should lie just below .6000 (1.6667). Immediate direction for this cross should now be dictated by the release of NZ unemployment and dairy price data on Wednesday, PMI data out of Europe next week is likely to impact to a lesser extent.
The current interbank midrate is:    NZDEUR 0.4382    EURNZD 2.2821

The interbank range this week has been:    NZDEUR 0.6056 - 0.6186    EURNZD 1.6166 - 1.6513
Tuesday 27th October 4:00pm(NZT)
The New Zealand dollar has been making solid gains against the Euro since the beginning of October. Those gains accelerated last week in the wake of the ECB rate meeting after President Draghi signalled further easing measures are likely in December. His dovish rhetoric pressured the EUR and it has remained on the back foot since. Although we could see a corrective bounce in the Euro at some stage, it will no doubt run into willing sellers on any period of strength and as such the cross to the NZD should remain supported. The key event this week will be the RBNZ’s rate statement on Thursday morning. An interest rate cut from the RBNZ would be something of a surprise to the market and would drive the pair lower, at least to support just below 0.6000 (resistance 1.6667). The central bank are likely to hold off cutting for the time being however, and as such any dip from the NZD will probably provide a good buying opportunity.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
NZD/EURO 0.6130 0.5990 0.6190 0.5900 - 0.6186
EURO/NZD 1.6313 1.6155 1.6694 1.6166 - 1.6949

Friday 23rd October 1:30pm(NZT)
The New Zealand dollar continues to trade very strongly against the Euro and trades near its highs (.6140, 1.6287) for the week. This comes on the back of the dovish ECB commentary after they raised the prospect of additional stimulus at their December meeting during their monetary policy meeting overnight. This cross should continue to trade well in light of this commentary, although next week’s RBNZ rate announcement on Thursday will be important. First light resistance is .6235 (support 1.6038).
The current interbank midrate is:    NZDEUR 0.6140    EURNZD 1.6287

The interbank range this week has been:    NZDEUR 0.5900 - 0.6140    EURNZD 1.6287 - 1.6949
Tuesday 20th October 1:25pm(NZT)
The New Zealand dollar continues to trade strongly against the Euro although has eased from its highs. Weaker than expected German ZEW and soft Euro-zone inflation data impacted although the primary driver was the reduction in RBNZ rate cut expectations after the RBNZ Governor’s comments. Highs seen near .6050 (lows near 1.6529) should form immediate resistance whilst initial support should come in near .5935 (resistance 1.6850). The ECB monetary policy meeting on Thursday this week will set the tone for this cross although for now the pressure remains to the upside.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
NZD/EURO 0.5995 0.5935 0.6050 0.5817 - 0.6038
EURO/NZD 1.6681 1.6529 1.6849 1.6561 - 1.7191

Friday 16th October 3:00pm(NZT)
The New Zealand dollar has continued to outperform the Euro this week trading to highs near .6035 (low 1.6570) on the back of reducing expectations for further rate cuts by the RBNZ beyond 2.5% (2.75% currently). Adding to the move is the current yield advantage offered by the NZD over the EUR in light of the continued re-pricing/delay in the timing of Fed rate cuts. Weaker than expected German ZEW data this week and calls overnight for additional ECB stimulus instruments have also negatively impacted EUR demand. The ECB monetary policy statement next week and the latest GDT dairy auction will be key to further moves in this cross although for now the momentum is higher.
The current interbank midrate is:    NZDEUR 0.6008             EURNZD 1.6644

The interbank range this week has been:    NZDEUR .5817 - .6038  GBPNZD 1.6561 - 1.7191
Tuesday 13th October 2:00pm(NZT)
The New Zealand dollar continues to remain well bid against the EUR having benefitted from the latest solid GDT auction and improving risk sentiment. Continued dovish comments from the ECB which noted inflation and growth concerns have added to the EUR pressure. Initial resistance lies around .5945 (support 1.6821) and then ahead of .6000 (1.6667). First support now comes in at .5874 (resistance 1.7025) and then around .5840 (1.7125). This week’s data of influence includes the German ZEW confidence survey today, although the NZ Q3 Inflation release on Friday and prevailing risk sentiment will be far more critical in setting fresh direction.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
NZD/EURO 0.5910 0.5840 0.6000 0.5770 - 0.5937
EURO/NZD 1.6920 1.6667 1.7123 1.6844 - 1.7330

Friday 9th October 3:00pm(NZT)
The New Zealand dollar has made solid gains against the Euro this week and currently trades nears it highs of .5925 (1.6877). Like the other kiwi crosses the NZDEUR has benefitted from the latest solid GDT auction and improving risk sentiment. Dovish notes from the ECB minutes noting inflation and growth concerns along with softer German data have added to the upside pressure. Initial resistance should lie around .5945 (1.6821) and then ahead of .6000 (1.6667). First support lies around .5840 (1.7125). Next week’s data of influence includes the German ZEW confidence survey and NZ CPI although risk sentiment is likely to be a more critical driver in the week ahead.
The current interbank midrate is:    NZDEUR 0.5915    EURNZD 1.6906

The interbank range this week has been:    NZDEUR 0.5671 - 0.5925    EURNZD 1.6877 - 1.7633
Tuesday 6th October 2:00pm(NZT)
The New Zealand dollar has made solid gains against the Euro this past week trading to a high of 0.5830 (low of 1.7153) last night. NZ dollar out performance has been helped by expectation for another positive dairy auction tonight, but the Euro is also suffering as speculation mounts that the ECB will be forced to undertake additional easing measures over the coming months. Growth and inflation data in the Euro area are sagging and this is starting to weigh significantly on the Euro. With the NZD breaking above resistance around 0.5770 last night (below 1.7331), there is now potential for a broader recovery toward 0.5940 (1.6835) to develop. The pair would need to continue to hold above the 0.5770 level (1.7331), which now acts as support for a move higher to develop.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
NZD/EURO 0.5800 0.5770 0.5940 0.5588 - 0.5830
EURO/NZD 1.7241 1.6835 1.7331 1.7153- 1.7896

Friday 2nd October 2:00pm(NZT)
The New Zealand dollar has managed to outperform the Euro this past week, particularly in recent days, but it's still trading within the same range that has dominated for the past month. Resistance around 0.5770 (support 1.7330) has capped the NZ dollar topside since late August and the pair failed to break through there again last night, eventually trading back below 0.5720 (1.7480). Data from NZ this week hasn’t had a huge impact, although a better business confidence reading has certainly improved overall sentiment a touch. The Euro on the other hand has suffered on the back of soft economic releases, especially that of inflation which printed back below 0.0%. If the pair can sustain a break above 0.5770 (below 1.7330) then a broader correction of the NZD higher may well unfold. But until then the risks are for further range trading. We can expect some volatility around tonight’s US employment data, then next week from NZ we have the NZIER’s quarterly survey of business opinion along with another dairy auction to digest. In Europe the focus will turn to retail sales, services PMI, German factory orders, a speech by President Draghi and the ECB minutes.
The current interbank midrate is:    NZDEUR 0.5725    EURNZD 1.7467

The interbank range this week has been:    NZDEUR 0.5588 - 0.5779    EURNZD 1.7304- 1.7896
Tuesday 29th Sept 3:00pm(NZT)
Like many of the New Zealand dollar crosses this pair has spent the last month trading within a well-defined range. NZ dollar support on the downside around 0.5550 (1.8020) has contained any weakness while there is solid resistance toward 0.5770 (support 1.7330). Late last week we saw the NZD start to outperform, thanks in large part to Fonterra’s upgraded pay-out forecasts. This relative outperformance continued in the early stages of this week with the pair trading to a high of 0.5728 (low 1.7460) yesterday. However, in the past 24 hours we have seen a sharp turnaround as a period of NZD weakness coincided with some Euro strength. This has driven the pair quickly back toward 0.5600 (1.7860). Nothing over the past week has suggest the cross is likely to break out in either direction and as such further ranging between 0.5550 and 0.5770 (1.7330 - 1.8020) is likely. From NZ this week we just have building consents and business confidence numbers to digest. While from Europe we have German retail sales and French consumer spending along with Eurozone inflation and unemployment.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
NZD/EURO 0.5600 0.5550 0.5770 0.5572 - 0.5728
EURO/NZD 1.7857 1.7331 1.8018 1.7459- 1.7947

Friday 25th September 2:00pm(NZT)
There has been little overall direction in this cross over the past week. In fact the same can be said for the past month with price action largely contained between 0.5550 and 0.5750 (1.7390 - 1.8020). In the past 48 hours however, we have seen some relative New Zealand dollar outperformance and this may be enough to drive the cross back above 0.5700 (1.7545). The local currency has gained ground on the back of Fonterra’s upgraded pay-out forecasts, which have in turn led to some doubts about the timing of the next potential RBNZ interest rate cut. The Euro itself has seen some pressure on the back of ECB President Draghi’s speech in which he confirmed they central bank wouldn’t hesitate to extent quantitative easing if the outlook warranted it. There is solid resistance between 0.5750 and 0.5800 (1.7545- 1.7240) and those looking to purchase Euros should take advantage of any strength seen toward that area should it eventuate. Next week from NZ we have building consents and business confidence data to digest. While from Europe we have German retail sales, French consumer spending, inflation and unemployment data set for release.
The current interbank midrate is:    NZDEUR 0.5660    EURNZD 1.7668

The interbank range this week has been:    NZDEUR 0.5563 - 0.5680    EURNZD 1.7605- 1.7976
Tuesday 22nd Sept 2:30pm(NZT)
We have seen some very choppy and unpredictable price action in the wake of Friday’s US Fed interest rate decision. The New Zealand dollar has seen sharp swings between 0.5550 and 0.5680 (1.7605 - 1.8020) to the Euro as both currencies have seen periods of underperformance. This leaves the near term outlook very confused and we may see further sideways ranging before a clear picture develops. A sustained break above 0.5680 (below 1.7605) will open the way for a recovery back toward 0.5770 (1.7330). While on the downside 0.5550 (1.8020) looks like it will continue to provide NZD support. With both the RBNZ and the ECB expected to ease monetary policy further over the coming months we can expect more choppy price action and perhaps little overall direction.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
NZD/EURO 0.5650 0.5550 0.5770 0.5551 - 0.5684
EURO/NZD 1.7699 1.7331 1.8018 1.7593- 1.8016

Friday 18th September 2:50pm(NZT)
The New Zealand dollar remains under pressure from the Euro which has largely outperformed in the wake of this morning’s Fed announcement. A period of NZD strength mid-week, after another strong dairy auction, ultimately failed around the 0.5660 (1.7670) level and yesterday’s disappointing NZD GDP data drove the cross back toward recent lows around 0.5560 (highs 1.7985). We always expected some volatility in the wake of this morning Fed announcement and we certainly saw that. The NZD initially outperformed the Euro causing a sharp spike back up to 0.5650(1.7670), but it was very short lived and the sharp rejection once again from above 0.5600 warns the downside is still the path of least resistance. Next week from New Zealand we have consumer sentiment, visitor arrivals and the trade balance set for release. While from Europe we have manufacturing and service sector PMI’s, German IFO business climate, a speech from ECB President Draghi to digest.
The current interbank midrate is:    NZDEUR 0.5575    EURNZD 1.7937

The interbank range this week has been:    NZDEUR 0.5551 - 0.5664    EURNZD 1.7656- 1.8016
Tuesday 15th Sept 1:30pm(NZT)
The past three weeks has seen this pair gyrating around between the broad parameters of 0.5560 and 0.5780 (1.7300 - 1.7985). Last Thursday's dovish RBNZ monetary policy statement pressured the NZD to the lower bounds of that range, but there was has been little in the way of follow through selling so far. The market may well look to tread water ahead of this week's key US Fed meeting, although locally we do have another dairy auction from Fonterra tonight to digest. Any sustained break below 0.5560 (above 1.7985) would be a negative signal and likely open the way for a test down toward 0.5400 (1.8520). Other data to watch out for this week includes NZ GDP and ZEW economic sentiment from Europe.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
NZD/EURO 0.5605 0.5550 0.5750 0.5555 - 0.5765
EURO/NZD 1.7841 1.7391 1.8018 1.7347- 1.8000

Friday 11th September 2:30pm(NZT)
After putting in a strong performance through the middle part of the week, the NZD has been slammed back to recent lows against the Euro in the past 24 hours. There was no fundamental driver for the NZD strength that we saw in the lead up to yesterday’s RBNZ monetary policy statement, but the reaction of the pair after that announcement suggests the risks remain skewed to the downside. Along with delivering a 0.25% cut to interest rates the RBNZ were more ‘dovish’ than expected and this completely undermined support for the local currency. The pair is now threatening support around 0.5570 (resistance around 1.7953), after trading as high as 0.5765 (low as 1.7346) a little over 24 hours ago. The sharp rejection from those highs keeps the immediate focus on the NZD downside. Next week from New Zealand we have another dairy auction along with GDP data. While from Europe we get the ZEW economic sentiment index, industrial production and the final reading of inflation.
The current interbank midrate is:    NZDEUR 0.5590    EURNZD 1.7889

The interbank range this week has been:    NZDEUR 0.5568 - 0.5765    EURNZD 1.7347- 1.7958
Tuesday 8st Sept 4:30pm(NZT)
After the sharp declines of late last month this pair has seen sideways consolidation between the broad parameters of 0.5580 and 0.5780 (1.7300 - 1.7920). A bout of Euro weakness in the wake of last Thursday’s ECB meeting saw the upper end of that range tested, but with the prospect of an impending interest rate cut from the RBNZ this week, there was little motivation to take the pair further. Since then it has been the NZD that has underperformed with the pair testing back down to the support level just below 0.5600(above 1.7860). With the longer term trend firmly negative the risks to the current range are certainly to the downside and a sustained break below 0.5580 (above 1.7920) would open the way for a test toward 0.5400 (1.8520). However, the RBNZ’s monetary policy statement on Thursday will largely dictate near term direction.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
NZD/EURO 0.5610 0.5580 0.5780 0.5587 - 0.5769
EURO/NZD 1.7825 1.7301 1.7921 1.7335- 1.7899

Friday 4th September 1:00pm(NZT)
After a NZD recovery last week toward the 0.5800 (1.7240) level, this pair rolled back over and trade down to 0.5600 (1.7860) in the early stages of this week. Another decline in NZ business confidence was a key driver, but since then the NZD has stage a recovery. The turnaround was helped by Fonterra’s latest dairy auction which posted further price gains, but the real move came last night in the wake of the European Central Bank rate meeting. The ECB seemed to lay the groundwork for a potential further easing by downgrading growth and inflation forecasts and signalling their willingness to act. This pressured the Euro and helped drive the NZD cross up toward 0.5770(down to 1.7330). The ECB may well have now put an end the recent period of Euro strength and as such this should help to limit the downside of the NZDEUR (upside EURNZD) pair. That being said, the NZD itself will remain vulnerable with concerns about China continuing and a widely expected interest rate cut from the RBNZ next week. Look for support just below 0.5600 (resistance 1.7860) to contain near term NZ dollar weakness while on the topside resistance around 0.5850 (support 1.7090) should prove a decent NZD barrier for increased demand.
The current interbank midrate is:    NZDEUR 0.5735    EURNZD 1.7437

The interbank range this week has been:    NZDEUR 0.5587 - 0.5798    EURNZD 1.7248- 1.7899
Tuesday 1st Sept 4:30pm(NZT)
After completely collapsing on Monday night last week, the New Zealand dollar staged a minor rebound against the Euro recovering toward 0.5800 by Friday. This week hasn’t started much better for the NZD however with yesterday’s business confidence data showing another big fall. This immediately pressured the local currency and the selling continued overnight. We have Chinese manufacturing data in the next hour which could easily influence, then tonight we have another dairy auction to digest. Expectations are for another improvement in dairy prices and this may limit the NZD downside in the very near term. Looking further out though the risks remain skewed to the downside as Chinese growth concerns look set to continue to weigh on the NZD. In Europe this week we have the ECB meeting on Thursday night which will draw plenty of attention.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
NZD/EURO 0.5660 0.5550 0.5750 0.5558 - 0.5798
EURO/NZD 1.7668 1.7391 1.8018 1.7248- 1.7992

Friday 28th August 3:00pm(NZT)
This pairing literally fell out of bed earlier this week as the double whammy of Euro strength and New Zealand dollar weakness drove the price action. Concerns around global stock markets ignited a wave of risk aversion which impacted both currencies in opposite directions. The fall was dramatic and very disorderly, but in the end the pair was trading below 0.5600 (above 1.7860). Since then, market concerns and volatility have dissipated, and the pair has staged a slow recovery, although this has largely been led from the Euro side of the equation. The New Zealand dollar failed to recover to any major degree, while the Euro has been slowly giving back its ‘risk off’ inspired gains. This would suggest there is potential for further appreciation toward the 0.5850 level initially (down to 1.7100). If that caps the NZ dollar topside, the pair may well turn back down again, so reaction around that level will be key to watch. In Europe next week the main focus will be on the European Central Bank's interest rate meeting on Thursday. While from NZ we have business confidence, building consents and other dairy auction to digest.
The current interbank midrate is:    NZDEUR 0.5785    EURNZD 1.7286

The interbank range this week has been:    NZDEUR 0.5392 - 0.5924    EURNZD 1.6879- 1.8546
Tuesday 25th Aug 7:30pm(NZT)
We have seen some big moves in currencies in recent days and nowhere is this more evident than in this pairing. With global stock markets looking very fragile the main theme in markets has been ‘risk off’. This has the effect of supporting the Euro with heaping selling pressure on the New Zealand dollar. This result has been a collapse of the cross rate from level above 0.5900 (below 1.6950) late last week to a brief period of trade below 0.5600 (above1.7860) last night. To be fair, last night’s price action was more the result of liquidity completely drying up than intense NZ selling pressure, but the result has been much the same. The cross currently sits around 0.5610(1.7825) and the risks remain to the NZ dollar downside for now. We can expect big ranges over the coming weeks as this period of heightened volatility plays out.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
NZD/EURO 0.5615 0.5550 0.5750 0.5392 - 0.5986
EURO/NZD 1.7809 1.7391 1.8018 1.6707- 1.8546

Thursday 20th Aug 1:30pm (NZT)
The New Zealand dollar broke lower against the Euro last week, trading down through support around 0.5950 (resistance 1.6800). Over the course of this week the NZD has regained some ground thanks in large part to an improvement in dairy prices. This saw the pair trade back above 0.5950 (below 1.6800) for a time in the past 48 hours, but the move could not be sustained and as such the risks have swung back to the NZD downside for now. That being said, near term direction is now a lot less certain and a test back toward 0.6000 (1.6667) can’t be ruled out. Tomorrow night from Europe we get manufacturing and service sector PMI data, the next week the focus will turn to the German IFO business climate index along with Spanish and German inflation. From NZ next week we have inflation expectations and the trade balance to digest.
The current interbank midrate is:    NZDEUR 0.5932    EURNZD 1.6858

The interbank range this week has been:    NZDEUR 0.5848 - 0.5986    EURNZD 1.6707- 1.7101
Tuesday 18th Aug 1:30pm(NZT)
The Euro was the stand out performer last week, making across the board gains. Positive developments on Greece's third bailout helped as did the devaluation of the Chinese Yuan, which ultimately resulted in a reasonable amount of EUR buying. These factors helped to drive the NZDEUR cross down through support around 0.5950 (resistance EURNZD around 1.6807) where is has remained since. Friday’s release of disappointing NZ retail sales data also weighed This saw the pair trade to fresh cycle lows at 0.5848 (highs at 1.7100). We have seen a steady NZ dollar recovery since then, helped by a more optimistic expectation for tonight's dairy auction. The critical 0.5950 (1.6807) level (now acting as resistance) has not been overcome. While below that level the risks remain skewed to the NZD downside. The market will need to break back above 0.5950 (below 1.6807) to relieve this pressure. European data to watch out for this week all comes on Friday in the form of manufacturing and service sector PMI’s.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
NZD/EURO 0.5940 0.5850 0.5950 0.5848 - 0.6012
EURO/NZD 1.6835 1.6807 1.7094 1.6634- 1.7101

Friday 14th Aug 1:00pm(NZT)
Up until Tuesday afternoon it looked like support around 0.5950 (resistance around 1.6807) would contain the downside on this pairing. The People’s Bank of China had different ideas though and their surprise announcement to devalue the Yuan sent shock waves through the markets. One of the biggest impacts was on the NZD v EUR cross. The New Zealand dollar saw pressure on the back of the announcement, while the Euro has actually gained significant ground. As a result this is one of the only NZD pairings to break out of its recent range. The 0.5950 (1.6807) area now turns into NZD topside resistance and this was confirmed yesterday with a failed attempt to recover that level. Further tests of the downside seem likely as the pair looks to establish a lower trading range. Next week from NZ we have another dairy auction, producer prices and inflation expectations data. From Europe we have the final reading of inflation along with the latest GDP data to digest tonight. Then next week attention will turn to manufacturing and service sector PMI’s.
The current interbank midrate is:    NZDEUR 0.5875    EURNZD 1.7021

The interbank range this week has been:    NZDEUR 0.5857 - 0.6054    EURNZD 1.6517- 1.7072
Tuesday 11th Aug 2:30pm(NZT)
This pair has spent much of the past month ranging sideways around 0.6000(1.6665). Dips toward support at 0.5950 (up to 1.6800) continue to find NZ dollar buyers and I wouldn’t expect that to change over the coming week. The New Zealand dollar has seen a lot of negativity priced into it recently, yet it hasn’t been able to break to fresh lows on many crosses. This suggests downside momentum is waning and unless the market gets a fresh reason to sell the local currency, a drift higher could develop. The only data from NZ this week comes in the form of retail sales on Friday. From Europe this week we get the ZEW economic sentiment index, GDP data, and the final reading of inflation. Look for a range of 0.5950 to 0.6100 (1.6395 - 1.6665) to contain trade in the coming days, which my short term preference being buying NZD into dips at this stage.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
NZD/EURO 0.6007 0.5950 0.6100 0.5959 - 0.6054
EURO/NZD 1.6647 1.6393 1.6807 1.6517- 1.6782

Friday 7th August 11: 35am(NZT)
This pair continues to consolidate within its recent trading range. With both currencies seeing periods of vulnerability the pair has seen the bulk of the week gyrating within a small range around .6000 (1.6667). Direction from current levels remains unclear, but it seems like the NZD has found a base in the short term around current levels, albeit eyes will be on the Fonterra payout forecast announcement later today. Next week the bulk of the focus will come on Friday when we get the Q2 NZ retail sales numbers ahead of the latest inflation and GDP numbers from Europe. Further consolidation within recent ranges would not surprise in the coming week.
The current interbank midrate is:    NZDEUR 0.5995    EURNZD 1.6681

The interbank range this week has been:    NZDEUR 0.5950 - 0.6053    EURNZD 1.6522- 1.6806
Tuesday 4th Aug 1:30pm(NZT)
The broad parameters of 0.5950 to 0.6100 (1.6393 to 1.6807) have largely contained this pair since the start of July. Price action within those parameters has been choppy as both currencies have seen periods of weakness. There is little at this point to suggest a breakout from this increasingly familiar range, although a number of key releases over the coming days could easily influence. From NZ we another dairy auction from Fonterra tonight and this will be follow by employment data tomorrow. In Europe attention will turn to service sector PMI’s, retails sales and German factory orders.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
NZD/EURO 0.5996 0.5950 0.6100 0.5951 - 0.6092
EURO/NZD 1.6678 1.6393 1.6807 1.6415- 1.6806

Friday 31st July 2:00pm(NZT)
After seeing pressure early in the week from the Euro, the New Zealand dollar staged something of a recovery trading back above 0.6000 (below 1.6667). The pair eventually made it briefly as high as 0.6092 (low of 1.6415) in the wake of Governor Wheeler's speech on Wednesday morning, but since then momentum has been lacking. For the time being we can expect further ranging between 0.5950 (1.6806) on the downside and 0.6110 (1.6365) on the topside. From NZ next week we have another dairy auction to digest along with employment data. While from Europe we have a number of regional PMI’s to digest as well as German factory orders.
The current interbank midrate is:    NZDEUR 0.6040    EURNZD 1.6556

The interbank range this week has been:    NZDEUR 0.5951 - 0.6092    EURNZD 1.6415- 1.6805
Tuesday 28th July 3:00pm(NZT)
The New Zealand dollar has made ground, or at least remained support, on most crosses this week. Against the Euro however, the local currency has underperformed. The EUR has made significant gains this past week, particularly in recent days, as short (sold) positions get squeezed out. Better than forecast German IFO Business Climate data last night only added to the waves of EUR buying that were seen as ‘risk off’ sentiment swept the market on the back of further falls in Chinese stocks. This helped to drive the pair down toward recent lows near 0.5950 (highs 1.6810). The pair hasn’t managed to break to fresh NZD lows however, and longer term downside momentum does seem to be lacking. I therefore favor a recovery back above 0.6000 (below 1.6667), and eventually back toward 0.6100 (1.6390), developing over the coming week. RBNZ Governor Wheeler speaks tomorrow and this is the main focus for the NZD. While from Europe this week we have data on inflation, unemployment and German retail sales, along with the ECB’s economic bulletin.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
NZD/EURO 0.5980 0.5950 0.6200 0.5951 - 0.6107
EURO/NZD 1.6722 1.6129 1.6807 1.6374- 1.6805

Friday 24th July 1:30pm(NZT)
Apart from a brief dip late last week toward 0.5950 (rally to 1.6800), this pair has spent the past three weeks ranging between the broad parameters of 0.6000 and 0.6110 (1.6365 - 1.6667). In the wake of yesterday’s RBNZ rate statement the NZ dollar up to the top of that range, driven by a New Zealand dollar short squeeze. It was short lived however, and in the past few hours some relative Euro strength has seen the pair back down toward 0.6000. I would continue to look for 0.6000 (1.6667), or levels just below there, to limit near NZ dollar term downside. The risks are also growing for an eventual break above 0.6110 (below 1.6365). This would encourage further buying and the pair could easily extend toward 0.6200 or higher (1.6125 or lower). Next week from NZ we only have building consents and business confidence set for release. While from Europe we have manufacturing and service sector PMI’s tonight, followed next week by German IFO business climate, German retail sales, German consumer climate, Eurozone inflation and Eurozone unemployment.
The current interbank midrate is:    NZDEUR 0.6015    EURNZD 1.6625

The interbank range this week has been:    NZDEUR 0.5986 - 0.6107    EURNZD 1.6374- 1.6705
Tuesday 21th July 5:00pm(NZT)
Both the New Zealand dollar and Euro have seen periods of pressure this past week. During one period of NZD underperformance the pair traded to fresh cycle lows at 0.5951(highs at 1.6804), but a NZD recovery since then leaves the cross little changed from where it was a week ago. Downside momentum looks to be lacking for this pair now and for the time being I expect dips to continue to be support. I would also not be surprised to see a broader correction higher, initially targeting 0.6200 (1.6129), unfold over the coming week or two. The first hurdle to overcome however, is the RBNZ’s rate statement set for release on Thursday morning. A 0.25% cut to the cash rate is fully expected, but the statement could easily provide some volatility. From Europe this week we have manufacturing and service sector PMI’s along with Spanish unemployment to digest.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
NZD/EURO 0.6090 0.6000 0.6200 0.5951 - 0.6110
EURO/NZD 1.6420 1.6129 1.6667 1.6367- 1.6802

Friday 17th July 1:30pm(NZT)
We have seen a volatile week for this pairing. There has been plenty of action in the Euro on the back of the Greek saga and this has combined with heavy selling of the New Zealand dollar thanks to falling dairy prices and soft inflation data. Ultimately the NZD has underperformed and we saw fresh cycle lows at 0.5951 (highs at 1.6804) trade last night. There is resistance around 0.6015 (support around 1.6625) and while below that level, the risks remain skewed toward further NZD weakness. If the market was to break above 0.6015 (below 1.6625) then we could see a move back toward 0.6110 (1.6367), but with the Reserve Bank of NZ widely expected to cut interest rate next week, strength beyond that level looks unlikely in the near term. From Europe next week we have manufacturing and service PMI’s to digest along with Spanish unemployment.
The current interbank midrate is:    NZDEUR 0.5996    EURNZD 1.6678

The interbank range this week has been:    NZDEUR 0.5951 - 0.6117    EURNZD 1.6348- 1.6802
Tuesday 14th July 4:00pm(NZT)
With the Greek situation taking centre stage in world markets recently we have seen some choppy trading in the Euro and its crosses. Against the NZD this caused the weeks high and low to trade within about 12 hours of each other heading into the weekend. With the base for a deal having finally been reached in the past 24 hours the market can now start to look forward. The initial reaction has not been positive for the Euro and this is driving the NZDEUR back up toward 0.6100 (1.6393). Unfortunately there is still a lot to be done, and a number of new deadlines, starting with the Greek government passing critical new reform measures by Wednesday night. This means there is still a lot of uncertainty out there and as such the market will remain somewhat nervous over the coming days. Add to this data from NZ in the form of a dairy auction and second quarter inflation numbers and we could see further sharp swings in the pair. On the downside support comes in around 0.6000 (resistance around 1.6667) while on the topside there is resistance around 0.6150 (support around 1.6260).
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
NZD/EURO 0.6080 0.6000 0.6200 0.5996 - 0.6117
EURO/NZD 1.6447 1.6129 1.6667 1.6348- 1.6677

Friday 10th July 3:30pm(NZT)
We have seen some choppy price action in this pair over the past week as the Greek situations unravels. In recent days the pair has made gains on the back of New Zealand dollar strength. A short (sold) NZ dollar market has been rushing to square positions up and this has underwritten the local currencies gains. The Greek situation is reaching a head and by all accounts this weekend should provide some finality. A Grexit looks likely but it’s far from certain, so expect further volatility. Making predictions about price direction in this environment is almost pointless. What I can say is there is good support just ahead of 0.6000 (resistance 1.6670), and the market is still short (sold) NZ dollars. On the basis of that the risks are skewed to the NZ dollar topside, but developments in Europe will dictate where the pair goes. Next week from NZ we have inflation data along with another dairy action to digest.
The current interbank midrate is:    NZDEUR 0.6090    EURNZD 1.6420

The interbank range this week has been:    NZDEUR 0.6016 - 0.6117    EURNZD 1.6348- 1.6623
Tuesday 7th July 2:30pm(NZT)
The Euro has been surprisingly calm in the face of recent events. We have certainly seen volatility but, not the broad based decline many had predicted. There is still plenty of water to flow under the bridge with a solution to the Greek crisis far from certain, so the market will remain nervous. Relative underperformance of the New Zealand dollar saw fresh cycle lows at 0.6016 (high’s 1.6622) trade late last week. The market is currently not far above that level either. Key downtrend resistance now comes in around 0.6110 (resistance 1.6366) and while through that level the risks remain skewed to the NZ dollar downside. However, a break above 0.6110 (below 1.6366) could see a sharp correction higher develop. With nothing from NZ out over the rest of this week, and Euro data side-lined by the Greek situation, all eyes will be on any progress, or lack thereof, in renewed negotiations.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
NZD/EURO 0.6050 0.6000 0.6110 0.6016 - 0.6117
EURO/NZD 1.6529 1.6367 1.6667 1.6348- 1.6623

Thursday 2nd July 2:30pm(NZT)
It has been a tough week to trade the Euro or any of its crosses. The currency gapped lower early Monday morning in the wake of the Greek referendum announcement, but then proceeded to turn around and eventually traded at stronger levels than where is was before last weekend. That recovery in the Euro, combined with weakness in the NZD, drove the cross trade back toward recent NZ dollar cycle lows. The Greek situation is far from resolved with this weekend’s referendum likely to dictate whether or not the country stays in the Euro. As such, we could easily see further sharp moves in either direction once the Greek people have had their say. The longer term trend is to NZ dollar under-performance, driven largely by NZ export market weakness. Soft business confidence data and another poor dairy auction this week have only reinforced the risks for further NZD losses. 0.6180 (support 1.6180) provide the initial resistance level for the pair and while below (above) there the risks remain to the NZ dollar under performance.
The current interbank midrate is:    NZDEUR 0.6070    EURNZD 1.6474

The interbank range this week has been:    NZDEUR 0.6033 - 0.6232    EURNZD 1.6045- 1.6575
Tuesday 30th June 2:00pm(NZT)
It has all been about Greece and the EUR the past few days, with events there largely side-lining everything else in the market. PM Tsipras’ surprise call for a referendum over the weekend shook markets and saw the EUR marketed dramatically lower in early trade yesterday morning. That helped drive the pair up to 0.6232 (down to 1.6046),, but since then we have seen a very impressive EUR recovery and the pair is now back down below 0.6100 (above 1.6395). That EUR recovery in the past 24 hours looks to have had as much to do with market positioning as anything else. It seems the Swiss National Bank (SNB) triggered something of a Euro “short squeeze” last night after they intervened in the market to weaken their currency by selling CHF and buying EUR. It seems unlikely we will see much further EUR strength in the near term, at least until the result of the referendum is known. Making bold predictions in this current volatile environment is however fraught with danger. Resistance toward 0.6200 (1.6130) and support toward 0.6000 (1.6666) mark the initial parameters for trade in the coming days.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
NZD/EURO 0.6090 0.6000 0.6200 0.6051 - 0.6232
EURO/NZD 1.6420 1.6129 1.6667 1.6045- 1.6526

Friday 26th June 2:00pm(NZT)
The New Zealand dollar has managed a solid recovery against the Euro from the recent lows of 0.6031 (1.6581). The bounce was helped by some relative NZD strength, but also by Euro weakness as optimism for a Greek deal faded fast in the past few days. It’s still very uncertain if a last minute compromise will be reached on Greece, although the odds are dropping quickly and time is running out. That makes any prediction for price action over the coming week a real lottery. Key resistance comes in around 0.6240 (support around 1.6026) and any break above there will likely see gains extend toward 0.6400 (1.5625). If however, 0.6240 (1.6026) contains the NZ dollar topside, the broader downtrend will then remain intact and the pair will likely turn lower again. Greek negotiations will remain in focus next week, while from NZ we get building consents and business confidence data along with another dairy auction from Fonterra.
The current interbank midrate is:    NZDEUR 0.6155    EURNZD 1.6247

The interbank range this week has been:    NZDEUR 0.6031 - 0.6190    EURNZD 1.6155- 1.6581
Tuesday 23th June 2:30pm(NZT)
The past 12 hours have seen fresh cycle lows trade for this pair as the New Zealand dollar remains on the back foot in the wake of last week’s GDP data. The move down to 0.6031 (up to 1.6581) last night was however largely driven by strength in the Euro as reports of progress in Greek negotiations filtered out on the news wires. A deal is not done yet and there is very little time left, but neither side wants to see a Greek default and potential EUR exit in the near term. That may be enough motivation to see some sort of agreement reached in the coming days. For now the focus for the pair remains on the NZ dollar downside. Any periods of near term strength will run into initial resistance at 0.6130 (support 1.6315). From New Zealand this week we just have the trade balance on Friday to digest. While from Europe, aside from continued Greek negotiations, we get manufacturing and service PMI data along with German business climate and consumer confidence indicators.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
NZD/EURO 0.6060 0.5930 0.6130 0.6031 - 0.6238
EURO/NZD 1.6502 1.6313 1.6863 1.6032- 1.6581

Thursday 17th June 2:00pm(NZT)
The New Zealand dollar has continued to lose ground against the Euro this week with sharp losses seen in the wake of this morning’s poor GDP data. Another interest rate cut from the RBNZ is now very likely next month and this will keep the local currency on the back foot. The potential for volatility on the Euro side of the equations is also high with time running out for a Greek deal to be reached. That makes this cross in particular a very tough call over the coming week. Tonight we have the Eurogroup finance ministers meeting and next week from Europe we get manufacturing and service PMI data along with the German IFO business climate index. Next week from NZ we have consumer sentiment, credit card spending and trade balance data. If there is one thing that is sure, there is plenty of potential for further volatility in this pair.
The current interbank midrate is:    NZDEUR 0.6070    EURNZD 1.6474

The interbank range this week has been:    NZDEUR 0.6057 - 0.6249    EURNZD 1.6003- 1.6511
Tuesday 16th June 2:30pm(NZT)
Much of the past week in the pairing has been spent consolidating the losses seen on the wake of Thursday’s RBNZ interest rate cut. The pair has mostly bounced around sideways just above the 0.6200 (1.6129) level. Initial resistance comes in around 0.6280 (support around 1.5924) and I would expect this to cap any near term NZ dollar strength. With the broader trend firmly to the downside we can expect to see further investigates below 0.6200 (above 1.6129) over the coming week. From NZ we have another dairy auction and GDP data to draw focus, while from Europe we get ZEW economic sentiment, the final reading of inflation and the Eurogroup finance ministers meetings. The big unknown, and risk factor for any outlook, remains the Greek situation which could see a significant move in the value of the Euro when some finality is reached.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
NZD/EURO 0.6210 0.6080 0.6280 0.6189 - 0.6387
EURO/NZD 1.6103 1.5924 1.6447 1.5657- 1.6159

Friday 12th June 2:00pm(NZT)
As with all New Zealand dollar crosses, this pair moved sharply lower in the wake of yesterday’s decision by the RBNZ to cut interest rates. A good portion of the market was caught by surprise by the move and the reaction in the currency was brutal. We saw a very quick fall from 0.6360 to near 0.6200 (1.5725 to 1.6130). We have seen a small recovery off the lows and this could continue as far at 0.6280 (1.5925) before it will runs into solid NZ dollar resistance. The trend in this pair over the past six weeks has been down and yesterday’s move only reinforces that. I would expect to see further NZD downside over the coming weeks with an initial target of support around 0.6140 (1.6285). The biggest risk factor to any forecast however continues to be Greece. We could get a sharp reaction in the Euro either way when/if the country eventually reaches a deal with its creditors. Next week from NZ we have another Fonterra dairy auction, along with current account and GDP data. While from Europe we have ZEW economic sentiment, the final reading of inflation, and a speech from ECB President Draghi to draw focus.
The current interbank midrate is:    NZDEUR 0.6240    EURNZD 1.6026

The interbank range this week has been:    NZDEUR 0.6196 - 0.6387    EURNZD 1.5657- 1.6139
Tuesday 9th June 2:00pm(NZT)
We have seen little in the way of continued direction in this pair after trading to fresh cycle low of 0.6284 (high 1.5913) on Thursday last week. Since that time the cross has largely consolidated recent NZD underperformance, trading sideways around 0.6340 (1.5775). The trend of the past six weeks is firmly to the NZ dollar downside and there is nothing to suggest it has run its course. This would suggest the risks remain skewed towards a further move in that direction. We do have the RBNZ interest rate announcement and monetary policy statement set for release on Thursday morning, which will likely be the main driver of the cross this week. It’s a close call whether the central bank cuts interest rate or not and as such the NZD could have a sharp reaction either way. Our opinion is the bank will choose to keep rates on hold for now which should see the NZD find support, at least initially. However, the central bank may signal that rate cuts are likely in the future this will limit the potential NZD upside. Key topside resistance come in around 0.6490 (support 1.5410) and those looking to purchase Euro’s should target that area, at the wholesale level, to transact. We also need to be mindful of the potential for an announcement on the outcome of Greek negotiations and the volatility this could provide. In all likelihood however, with Greece now stalling payments to the IMF until later this month, any finality may be a couple of weeks away.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
NZD/EURO 0.6310 0.6290 0.6490 0.6284 - 0.6518
EURO/NZD 1.5848 1.5408 1.5898 1.5343- 1.5913

Friday 5th June 1:00pm(NZT)
The Euro has been the standout performer this week making broad based gains across the board. A number of factors have driven the gains. Improving data on inflation and other indicators suggests a continued gradual improvement in Eurozone economic conditions. This combined with a big move higher in German long term interest rates, and early optimism around a Greek deal, to underpin the Euro’s gains. Some of that optimism about a Greek deal was undone last night after Greece confirmed they are going to delay a payment due today to the IMF. This has seen the EUR reverse some of its gains, although it’s still significantly higher than where it started the week. Locally we have seen the NZD on the back foot after another decline in dairy prices and attention now turns to the Reserve Bank of New Zealand interest rate meeting and monetary policy statement set for release on Thursday morning. There is some real debate around the potential for an interest rate cut from the RBNZ, and as such we could see some volatility in the NZD in the wake of the announcement. Greece will remain in the headlines and it still provides the biggest risk factor in the near term.
The current interbank midrate is:    NZDEUR 0.6355    EURNZD 1.5736

The interbank range this week has been:    NZDEUR 0.6284 - 0.6558    EURNZD 1.5247- 1.5913
Tuesday 2nd June 2:30pm(NZT)
The New Zealand dollar lost significant ground to the Euro last week, weighed on by Fonterra’s announcement and the release of declining NZ business confidence. Improving data out of Europe has also helped with the Euro’s outperformance of the NZD and the pair made fresh cycle lows at 0.6444 (highs at 1.5518) early yesterday. The recent trend would suggest the risks remain skewed to further weakness, however there is a lot of uncertainty around the outcome of Greek negotiations and these could cause a very sharp move in either direction. Time is rapidly running out for solution and there is every chance the coming week may well provide an outcome one way or another. Also from Europe this week we have service sector PMI’s, Eurozone inflation and retail sales data to digest, along with the ECB interest rate meeting. While from NZ the economic calendar is a little light with only another dairy auction from Fonterra to draw focus.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
NZD/EURO 0.6507 0.6400 0.6600 0.6444 - 0.6695
EURO/NZD 1.5368 1.5152 1.5625 1.4936- 1.5519

Friday 29th May 2:00pm(NZT)
The early stages of this week saw the New Zealand dollar stage something of a recovery against the Euro trading to just shy of 0.6700 (1.4925). Since then however we have seen mostly downside price action, particularly in the past 24 hours, and the pair now looks like it will test recent cycle lows at 0.6491 (highs at 1.5406). The Euro has seen its fair share of volatility on the back of comments around the ongoing Greek negotiations, but the majority of the crosses decline has come on the back of NZ dollar weakness. Fonterra’s announcement yesterday was disappointing and it seems the dairy industry could be in for another tough year coming up. Although the immediate focus remains on the downside, there is a big question mark hanging over the outcome of Greece’s negotiations with its creditors. That has the potently to send the Euro significantly higher or lower, and it could come out of the blue at any time in the next week or two. From NZ next week we only have the overseas trade index and another Fonterra dairy auction of any note. While from Europe we get manufacturing and services sector PMI’s, inflation, Eurozone retail sales and the ECB rate statement.
The current interbank midrate is:    NZDEUR 0.6540    EURNZD 1.5291

The interbank range this week has been:    NZDEUR 0.6539 - 0.6695    EURNZD 1.4936- 1.5292
Tuesday 26th May 2:00pm(NZT)
Last week’s increase in NZ inflation expectations helped to turn this pair around after a month of losses. The pair eventually managed to gain a foothold above 0.6600 (below 1.5152) and this has encouraged further gains to 0.6667 (1.4999) so far. For the time being the focus remains on the topside with the target being a test of resistance around 0.6760 (support around 1.4793). While Greek negotiations will continue to draw focus we also have German consumer climate, German retail sales, French consumer spending and Spanish CPI to look forward to in coming days. While from NZ this week we have building consents and business confidence numbers to digest.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
NZD/EURO 0.6665 0.6560 0.6760 0.6508 - 0.6667
EURO/NZD 1.5004 1.4793 1.5244 1.4999- 1.5367

Friday 22nd May 2:00pm(NZT)
The New Zealand dollar remained under pressure from the Euro in the early stages of this week trading down to a 0.6492 low (1.5404 high). The release of NZ inflation expectations data that was stronger than forecast seemed to turn the pair around however, and since then the cross has been trying to gain a foothold above 0.6600 (below 1.5152). If the pair can managed to do that, a much broader correction toward 0.6770 (1.4771) will likely develop. Repeated failures above 0.6600 (below 1.5152) however, will keep the focus on the downside. From NZ next week we have the trade balance, building consents and business confidence data to draw focus. While in Europe ECB President Draghi is due to speak tonight and we also have the release of the German IFO business climate index. Next week we get German consumer climate, French consumer spending, Spanish inflation and private loans data.
The current interbank midrate is:    NZDEUR 0.6610    EURNZD 1.5129

The interbank range this week has been:    NZDEUR 0.6492 - 0.6635    EURNZD 1.5073- 1.5403
Tuesday 19th May 1:00pm(NZT)
The New Zealand dollar has been under relentless pressure from the Euro recently and early this week fresh cycle lows traded just below 0.6500 (above 1.5385). The driver for the latest declines was the NZ government's announcement to tax property speculators, which in combination with the central bank's recent lending restrictions, should have a dampening effect of property price gains. There are indications that this downtrend is starting to run out of steam and as such any further tests below 0.6500 (above 1.5385) are likely to be short lived. A move up through 0.6560 (down below 1.5244) would then open the way for broader gains toward 0.6650 or even 0.6700 (1.5038 or 1.4925). We have NZ inflation expectations data out this afternoon to draw focus, with attention then turning to Fonterra’s latest dairy auction. From Europe this week we have manufacturing and service PMI data along with German ZEW economic sentiment and IFO business climate index.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
NZD/EURO 0.6510 0.6400 0.6560 0.6492 - 0.6656
EURO/NZD 2.1231 1.5244 1.5625 1.5025- 1.5403

Friday 15th May 1:30pm(NZT)
The past week has seen some choppy price action in this pairing. Early pressure on the New Zealand dollar saw the cross trade down to recent lows at 0.6529. Since that low, which traded on Wednesday morning, the New Zealand dollar has found better support helped by yesterday’s very strong retail sales data. But the Euro has also been in hot demand over recent days and as a result the cross has gyrated around the 0.6600 level with little overall direction. 0.6500 to 0.6700 looks to be a likely range over the coming week and with momentum indicators suggesting the recent sell off is running out of steam, buying into periods of weakness toward 0.6500 is the favoured play. From NZ next week we have inflation expectations data along with another dairy auction from Fonterra and the annual budget release. While from Europe we have German ZEW economic sentiment data, manufacturing PMI, the final reading of inflation and the German IFO business climate index to digest.
The current interbank midrate is:    NZDEUR 0.6545    EURNZD 1.5279

The interbank range this week has been:    NZDEUR 0.6529 - 0.6708    EURNZD 1.4909- 1.5317
Tuesday 12th May 1:00pm(NZT)
The New Zealand dollar has been under all sorts of pressure since last week's employment data was released. Sentiment toward the local currency has turned sharply negative as more and more forecasters suggest interest rate cuts are just around the corner. We may get a better idea of what the central bank is actually thinking with the release of their financial stability report tomorrow. Although the RBNZ are inflation focused, they can’t ignore the risks of a rampant Auckland housing market. It seems likely the bank will want to minimise the risk of an interest rate cut with the use of further macro prudential tools. If the bank announces the implementation of such tools tomorrow the NZ will see more pressure as interest rate cut expectations increase. Weakness in the pair has so far been contained by minor support around 0.6560 (resistance around 1.5244), but any breach of that level will open the way for losses toward 0.6400 (1.5625). Also from NZ this week we have retail sales data to digest, while from Europe we get GDP data from France, Germany, Italy and EU as a whole.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
NZD/EURO 0.6588 0.6560 0.6760 0.6559 - 0.6790
EURO/NZD 1.5179 1.4793 1.5244 1.4728- 1.5245

Friday 8th May 1:30pm(NZT)
Price action in this pair over the past week has been dominated by New Zealand dollar losses in the wake of disappointing employment data. The NZD saw sharp declines as that data only served to increase expectations that the RBNZ could cut interest rates later this year. The EUR has also gained some support from improving data and an increased expectation the a Greek deal will eventually be reached. This combination of factors drove the pair down to a low of 0.6559 (high of 1.5246), but we have seen a small bounce from there. There are indications that NZD downside momentum is waning and I expect any further dips below 0.6600 (above 1.5152)  to be short lived in the near term. Next week from NZ we have the RBNZ financial stability report, a speech
The current interbank midrate is:    NZDEUR 0.6615    EURNZD 1.5117

The interbank range this week has been:    NZDEUR 0.6559 - 0.6798    EURNZD 1.4711- 1.5245
Tuesday 5th May 2:00pm(NZT)
The past week has seen significant fall for the NZD on this pairing as Euro strength has combined with weakness in the New Zealand dollar. The cross traded all the way down toward 0.6700 (up to 1.4925) helped along by a somewhat dovish statement from the RBNZ last Thursday. We have seen a small NZD bounce develop from just above 0.6700 (below 1.4925), and as long as that level contains the NZD downside a broader correction higher could well develop. I would expect a test back toward resistance around 0.6875 (support 1.4545) to unfold over the coming week. Tonight from NZ we have the latest Fonterra dairy auction to digest and then tomorrow we get employment data. The focus in Europe this week will be on services PMI, retails sales, German factory orders and French industrial production.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
NZD/EURO 0.6760 0.6700 0.6875 0.6711 - 0.7052
EURO/NZD 1.4793 1.4545 1.4925 1.4181- 1.4901

Friday 1st May 2:45pm(NZT)
After trading quietly around the 0.7000 (1.4285) level in the first half of the week, the NZD headed sharply lower early yesterday in response to the RBNZ rate statement. That statement confirmed what the Deputy Governor suggested last week when he delivered a reasonably ‘dovish’ speech. The bank is not considering any interest rate increases and is actually leaning towards a rate cut should demand weaken. The New Zealand dollar immediately came under pressure and this helped to drive the cross down below 0.6800 (above 1.4700) where it currently trades. We have now seen a very sharp fall from the highs around 0.7200 (rally from 1.3890) that were trading only 10 days ago. There is some support around 0.6760 (resistance 1.4790) and then again around 0.6700(1.4925). I would expect to see a corrective bounce from one of those levels in the coming days. That bounce will run into initial resistance, and may ultimately be capped, by the 0.6875 level. Next week from NZ we have another dairy auction along with employment data. While from Europe we have manufacturing and service PMI data, retails sales, industrial production and German factory orders.
The current interbank midrate is:    NZDEUR 0.6765    EURNZD 1.4782

The interbank range this week has been:    NZDEUR 0.6771 - 0.7052    EURNZD 1.4181- 1.4770
Tuesday 28th Apr 3:30pm(NZT)
Like many New Zealand dollar crosses, this pair saw a sharp pullback from the elevated levels seen at the beginning of last week. Broad NZD weakness was largely to blame as the local currency came under pressure thanks to softer than forecast inflation and a dovish speech by the RBNZ deputy Governor. There is now the expectation that the RBNZ will soften its stance slightly when it delivers its rate statement on Thursday morning. This should keep the local currency on the back foot over the next couple of days. We do have NZ trade balance and business confidence data to digest tomorrow while from Europe this week we get inflation, unemployment, German retail sales, French consumer spending, and Spanish GDP data.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
NZD/EURO 0.7010 0.7000 0.7200 0.6948 - 0.7203
EURO/NZD 1.4265 1.3889 1.4286 1.3884 - 1.4393

Friday 24th Apr 2:00pm(NZT)
The New Zealand dollar remained at elevated levels to the Euro in the early stages of this week even trading to fresh cycle highs at 0.7203 (lows at 1.3883). We have seen a sharp pullback from there however, with support for the NZ dollar undermined by a couple of releases. Firstly we have a softer than forecast result from NZ inflation data, then the RBNZ deputy governor ramped up the downside pressure in speech released yesterday. Not only did he say the bank was not considering any interest rate increases, but he spent a fair amount of time talking about the potential for a rate cut. The pair has pulled all the way back to support around the 0.7000 level (resistance around 1.4286) where it currently trades. Any sustained break below 0.7000 (above 1.4286) would open the way for a decline to 0.6850 (1.4600). If however, 0.7000 (1.4286) can contain this period of NZD weakness the pair could attempt to rally again. Next week we have the RBNZ rate statement to digest along with European data in the form of inflation and unemployment.
The current interbank midrate is:    NZDEUR 0.7000    EURNZD 1.4286

The interbank range this week has been:    NZDEUR 0.6998 - 0.7203    EURNZD 1.3884 - 1.4289
Tuesday 21st Apr 3:30pm(NZT)
The New Zealand dollar remains elevated against the Euro, although we have seen a pullback from the highs above 0.7160 (1.3966 lows) that traded yesterday. The NZD traded to that level yesterday thanks in large part to news of further easing’s from the Peoples Bank of China, but overnight the pair has moderated somewhat. Uncertainty around the Greek situation is keeping the Euro under pressure and with no agreement likely to be reached this week when finance ministers meet it’s hard to see the Euro finding much support. We do have a rash of Eurozone data out this week to draw focus, but the Greek situation will never be far from the headlines and any potential pullback in the NZD should find very good support just above 0.7000 (resistance 1.4285).
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
NZD/EURO 0.7130 0.7000 0.7200 0.7041 - 0.7169
EURO/NZD 1.4025 1.3889 1.4286 1.3949 - 1.4202

Friday 17th Apr 1:00pm(NZT)
This pair has seen relentless gains recently, interrupted only by a period of New Zealand dollar weakness on the back of soft Chinese trade data. That data caused a pullback to the week’s low of 0.7027 (high of 1.4231), but the local currency has recovered since then and the pair is now comfortably back above 0.7100 (below 1.4085). Although data from Europe is showing the economy is on the mend, the Euro is remaining under pressure thanks to uncertainty about the Greek situation along with the ECB quantitative easing programme. These two factors will continue to weigh on the Euro over the coming weeks. Next week from New Zealand we have inflation data to draw focus. While from Europe we get ZEW economic sentiment, manufacturing and service sector PMI’s, consumer confidence and the German IFO business climate index.
The current interbank midrate is:     NZDEUR 0.7110     EURNZD 1.4065

The interbank range this week has been:     NZDEUR 0.7027 - 0.7152     EURNZD 1.3982 - 1.4231
Tuesday 14th Apr 2:30pm(NZT)
Uncertainty around the Greek situation has kept pressure on the Euro and this helped to drive the NZDEUR cross up to a 0.7121 high (1.4043 low) in recent days. We did get a sharp pullback from that level yesterday driven by weakness in the New Zealand dollar in the wake of yesterday’s poor Chinese trade data, but the NZD found support around 0.7025 (1.4235). At this stage is getting very hard to see any meaningful resolution to Greece’s financial situation, even if the current tranche of 7.2bln bailout funds released. This will continue to weigh on the Euro in the weeks, and potentially months, ahead. The immediate focus now turns to tomorrow night’s dairy auction from Fonterra, and the ECB’s rate meeting. There is a fair amount of support toward 0.7000 (resistance 1.4285) and as long as the market holds above there the focus remains on the New Zealand dollar topside.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
NZD/EURO 0.7060 0.7000 0.7200 0.6874 - 0.7121
EURO/NZD 1.4164 1.3889 1.4286 1.4044 - 1.4547

Friday 10th Apr 1:45pm(NZT)
This pair repeatedly tested levels below 0.6900 (above 1.4500) last week and in the early stages of this week. Each time the NZD bounced back sharply and on Tuesday evening a strong rally developed. This rally was driven largely by weakness in the Euro which has seen continued pressure on the back of uncertainty about the Greek situation. Although Greece has just managed to make a payment due to the IMF yesterday, their financial state remains critical. It’s hard to say how much further this rally will go in the near term. Initial support comes in around 0.7060 (resistance 1.4165) and it will take a move below there to suggest a top has been put in place. Until then expect further tests of the topside. Next week we have the European Central Bank rate meeting and the final reading of Euro inflation to draw focus. While from NZ we have business confidence, another Fonterra dairy auction and the Business NZ manufacturing index.
The current interbank midrate is:    NZDEUR 0.7110    EURNZD 1.4065

The interbank range this week has been:    NZDEUR 0.6874 - 0.7100    EURNZD 1.4084 - 1.4547
Thursday 2nd April 2:30pm(NZT)
This pair has spent much of the past week trading in choppy conditions between the broad parameters of 0.6900 and 0.7000 (1.4493 and 1.4286). A mild NZD downside bias looks to have developed with periods of NZD strength seeing lower peaks, and brief test below 0.6900 (above 1.4493) last night marking the lowest level traded in the past two weeks. Somewhat surprisingly, last night’s weakness came before the release of Fonterra’s dairy auction which produced another big decline in dairy prices. Although the New Zealand dollar has performed pretty well since that release, I would expect it to have broadly undermined support for the local currency and further tests below 0.6900 (above 1.4493) can be expected. Economic data out of Europe would also support the case for a lower cross as the improving results should lead to an increase in demand for Euro’s. But for the time being the Greek situation is taking centre stage and the market will want to see some finality there before renewed Euro buying emerges.
The current interbank midrate is:    NZDEUR 0.6910    EURNZD 1.4472

The interbank range this week has been:    NZDEUR 0.6887 - 0.6998    EURNZD 1.4289 - 1.4520
Tuesday 31st Mar 2:30pm(NZT)
The past week has seen choppy trading for this pair largely contained between 0.6900 and 0.7000 (1.4285 - 1.4492). The failure of the pair to be able to maintain any NZD gains over the 0.7000 (under 1.4285) level this past week has increased the potential for a more substantial pullback from the NZ dollar. A break below 0.6900 (above 1.4492) would be the first indication this is underway and a move towards 0.6770 (1.4770) should follow. European data has certainly seen a gradual improvement recently, but the Greek situation is limiting any potential gains for the Euro as a result. If some sort of agreement is reached this week to enable the release the next tranche of bailout funds to Greece, the Euro certainly has room to appreciate. Key to near term direction will also be the outcome of Fonterra’s latest dairy auction tomorrow night. Another soft result should pressure the NZD to the downside.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
NZD/EURO 0.6928 0.6900 0.7100 0.6899 - 0.7020
EURO/NZD 1.4434 1.4085 1.4493 1.4245 - 1.4495

Friday 27th Mar 1:30pm(NZT)
The Euro saw early pressure from the New Zealand dollar this week, with the pair trading to a new high of 0.7075 (low 1.4135) on Monday. Since then however, we have seen it moderate somewhat thanks to improving data out of Europe and a disappointing NZ trade balance result. The cross traded all the way back to 0.6900 (1.4500) yesterday evening before finding support. With the 0.6900 (1.4500) level remaining intact and a substantial NZ dollar bounce now under way the risks remain skewed for further NZD outperformance and further investigations above 0.7000 (below 1.4290) look likely. From NZ next week we have business confidence data and another Fonterra dairy auction to digest. While from Europe we get data on inflation, unemployment, French consumer spending, German retail sales, along with manufacturing PMI’s from Spain and Italy.
The current interbank midrate is:    NZDEUR 0.6975    EURNZD 1.4337

The interbank range this week has been:    NZDEUR 0.6899 - 0.7075    EURNZD 1.4134 - 1.4495
Tuesday 24th Mar 12:30pm(NZT)
The past week has seen relentless gains for the New Zealand dollar over the Euro. The pair traded to all-time highs at 0.7075 (lows 1.4134) during a wave of NZDUSD stop-loss buying yesterday afternoon, but has since moderated somewhat. There is nothing to say that the rally has run its course and while the pair holds above 0.6900 (below 1.4493) the risks are all skewed to NZD outperformance. Rock bottom interest rates in the Eurozone, and the advent of quantitative easing (QE) by the ECB, is causing capital to flee from the EUR and this should keep the EUR under pressure for the foreseeable future. This week from Europe we have manufacturing and services sector PMI data, German IFO business climate, and German consumer climate readings to digest.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
NZD/EURO 0.7000 0.6900 0.7100 0.6856 - 0.7075
EURO/NZD 1.4286 1.4085 1.4493 1.4134 - 1.4586

Thursday 19th Mar 2:45pm(NZT)
The New Zealand dollar scratched out fresh cycle highs against the Euro in the early stages of this week. The move lacked momentum however, and this raised the chance of a significant pullback. That pullback was triggered by a weak dairy auction from Fonterra that saw prices decline 8.8%. The New Zealand dollar immediately lost ground trading down to a low of 0.6856 (high of 1.4586) EUR, before staging a bounce. We could easily see further downside toward 0.6800 (up to 1.4706) over the coming week. That level should provide good NZD support and I suspect it will contain any period of near term weakness. Next week from the Eurozone we get manufacturing and service sector PMI data, along with the German IFO business climate index. While from NZ we just have we just have consumer sentiment and the trade balance set for release.
The current interbank midrate is:    NZDEUR 0.6915    EURNZD 1.4461

The interbank range this week has been:    NZDEUR 0.6856 - 0.7015    EURNZD 1.4255 - 1.4586
Tuesday 17th Mar 3:00pm(NZT)
The New Zealand dollar has eked out fresh cycle highs against the Euro at 0.7016 (1.4253) in the past 24 hours. A relatively strong performance from the NZD since last Thursday’s RBNZ statement has seen the currency gain on most crosses. These most recent highs have however, been accompanied by declining momentum indicators and this suggests a period of consolidation, or a corrective pullback is likely over the coming week(s). The pair could easily pull back toward 0.6800 (upto 1.4705) without threatening the broader uptrend. Recent improvements in data from the Eurozone would also support this outlook for a consolidation/correction in the pair, however with QE from the ECB now in full swing, any period of relative EUR strength, is likely to be short lived. Expect a range of 0.6800 to 0.7000 (1.4285 - 1.4705)  over the coming week. Tonight we get German ZEW economic sentiment data and the final reading of Eurozone inflation. Later in the week the ECB economic bulletin and the EU economic summit will draw focus. While from NZ this week we have another dairy auction from Fonterra along with GDP data.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
NZD/EURO 0.6980 0.6800 0.7000 0.6725 - 0.7016
EURO/NZD 1.4327 1.4286 1.4706 1.4254 - 1.4870

Friday 13th Mar 12:30pm(NZT)
It has largely been one-way traffic for this pair since the beginning of February.  NZ dollar gains paused for a few days ahead of yesterday’s RBNZ monetary policy statement. But with the NZD finding plenty buyers in the wake of that release, the NZDEUR cross lept higher again (EURNZD lower). The pair made fresh cycle highs at 0.6994 (lows 1.4298) before the NZD ran out of steam. We could easily see a correction back toward 0.6870 (1.4555) or even 0.6800 (1.4705) without threatening the current NZD strong uptrend (weakening EUR trend). The Euro is expected to remain under pressure over the coming months with quantitative easing by the ECB now in full swing, and rock bottom interest rates making it a very attractive currency to borrow in. Buying New Zealand into any periods of weakness on the cross remains the favoured play. Next week from Europe we have inflation data, the ZEW economic sentiment index, and the ECB’s economic bulletin to digest. While from NZ we have another Fonterra dairy auction along with current account and GDP data.
The current interbank midrate is:    NZDEUR 0.6960    EURNZD 1.4368

The interbank range this week has been:    NZDEUR 0.6725 - 0.6994    EURNZD 1.4298 - 1.4870
Tuesday 10th Mar 2:30pm(NZT)
Despite some improving economic data, the Euro has been under a lot of pressure recently. Concerns around Greece and the advent with the ECB’s EUR 1.1 trn quantitative easing programme have both weighed on the Euro, which traded to multi year lows across the board in the middle of last week. Against the New Zealand dollar this saw a high of 0.6869(low of 1.4558) trade before the RBNZ triggered a pullback. Their announcement that they are looking to create a new asset class for property investors undermined support for the NZD and caused this pair to pull back toward 0.6750 (1.4815). We have seen largely sideways price action since then and I expect this to continue ahead of the RBNZ’s monetary policy statement on Thursday morning. This event provides the major focus for the week and the risks around it are skewed toward further NZD downside. Any break below 0.6750 (above1.4815) should result in a test of support around 0.6700 (resistance around 1.4925).
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
NZD/EURO 0.6770 0.6700 0.6900 0.6709 - 0.6869
EURO/NZD 1.4771 1.4493 1.4925 1.4559 - 1.4905

Friday 6th Mar 2:00pm(NZT)
After a relatively quiet first half of the week, this pair bust into life on Wednesday night. The move came largely thanks to weakness in the Euro which saw waves of selling that drove the currency to 11 year lows against the USD. Against the NZD this drove the pair to fresh highs above 0.6860 (lows of 1.4577), but those levels were short lived. The New Zealand dollar itself saw pressure yesterday in the wake of the RBNZ’s announcement that they are looking to create a new asset class for property investing. This drove the pair back down to initial support which is now seen around 0.6770 (resistance around 1.4771). The broader picture seems likely to be one of further gains. The cross could pull back as far as 0.6700 (1.4925) without threatening the longer term uptrend, and while above that level the focus remains on the topside. Next week from New Zealand we have the RBNZ rate meeting on Thursday to draw focus. This will be followed by the Business NZ manufacturing index on Friday. While from Europe we have French and Italian industrial production figures, German inflation and the Eurogroup meetings to digest.
The current interbank midrate is:    NZDEUR 0.6785    EURNZD 1.4738

The interbank range this week has been:    NZDEUR 0.6703 - 0.6869    EURNZD 1.4559 - 1.4919
Tuesday 3rd Mar 2:30pm(NZT)
The Euro has remained under pressure from the New Zealand dollar for much of the past week. The pair traded just shy of January's 0.6769 high (1.4773 low) before running out of steam. The Eurozone is seeing a slight improvement in a number of economic data releases and this should help to limit further gains for the pair in the near term. While 0.6770 (1.4771) caps the NZD topside, the risks are skewed to a pullback toward initial support around 0.6640 (resistance around 1.5060). From New Zealand tonight we have another Fonterra Dairy auction to digest, while from Europe this week we have retail sales, German factory orders, and the ECB rate meeting to draw focus.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
NZD/EURO 0.6715 0.6530 0.6770 0.6566 - 0.6763
EURO/NZD 1.4892 1.4771 1.5314 1.4786 - 1.5231

Friday 27th Feb 1:00pm(NZT)
The Euro only saw a temporary respite from the announcement of a deal between Greece and the EU. The reality is that the situation is a fluid and unpredictable as ever and we have another key deadline to look forward to in four months’ time. The now fractured Syriza party may well fail to pass the necessary reforms to gain further bailout funds. This means Greece’s long term inclusion in the Euro is uncertain as it ever was. All this hasn’t helped the Euro which has seen pressure despite the odd data point showing some improvement. The pair looks like it will retest the early 2015 high at 0.6769 (low at 1.4773). That level mark’s NZD initial resistance, but above there we are in uncharted territory. Tonight we get German inflation and French consumer spending data, then next week we have inflation, retail sales, manufacturing and service PMI’s, and the ECB rate meeting. From NZ next week we just have another Fonterra dairy auction to digest.
The current interbank midrate is:    NZDEUR 0.6730    EURNZD 1.4859

The interbank range this week has been:    NZDEUR 0.6566 - 0.6740    EURNZD 1.4837 - 1.5231
Tuesday 24th Feb 2:30pm(NZT)
Discussions between Greece and the EU were the main focus for this pair last week. The Euro came under pressure late last week as negotiations failed to reach an agreement and this drove the pair up over 0.6680 (under 1.4970) for a short time. At the eleventh hour however, the basis of an agreement was reached and the Euro reacted somewhat positively retracing its losses. But any gains in the Euro have been limited by the lack of detail in the agreement and the fact it’s really only just bought more time, four months to be exact, before we are back at square one. I would expect to see support around 0.6500 (resistance around 1.5385) contain any periods of weakness in the pair over the coming weeks. With little real progress made on the Greek situation further Euro weakness and a test back up over 0.6700 (under 1.4925) remain a very real possibility for this pair. From New Zealand this week we get a speech from Governor Wheeler along with the trade balance, building consents, and business confidence data. From Europe this week we have ECB President Draghi due to speak along with data on German inflation, German unemployment, and French consumer spending.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
NZD/EURO 0.6640 0.6500 0.6700 0.6575 - 0.6687
EURO/NZD 1.5060 1.4925 1.5385 1.4955 - 1.5209

Thursday 19th Feb 2:30pm(NZT)
Solid data from New Zealand and a lack, so far at least, of any agreement between Greece and the EU has help drive the pair up through 0.6600 (down through 1.5152) where it currently trades. If an deal with Greece is not made soon the Euro will start to really feel the pressure, but for now the markets believe that the two side will eventually come together. If/when an eleventh hour agreement is reached, we should see a modest appreciation of the Euro, and this should drive the cross to the NZD back toward 0.6500 (1.5385). All bets are off however, if we get to the 28th Feb with no resolution. Greece will run out of funds soon thereafter and very disorderly exit from the Euro could follow. The market is currently not pricing in much of a risk for that outcome, so the impact would be huge with the EUR losing as much as 10% of its value. Greek negotiations will remain in focus over coming days and potentially into next week. From New Zealand next week we have inflation expectations, the trade balance, building consents, and business confidence.
The current interbank midrate is:    NZDEUR 0.6625    EURNZD 1.5094

The interbank range this week has been:    NZDEUR 0.6459 - 0.6642    EURNZD 1.5057 - 1.5481
Tuesday 17th Feb 3:30pm(NZT)
The New Zealand dollar has continued to make ground against the Euro this week, being driven on two fronts. Firstly we have seen NZD strength helped by sold retail sales data. Secondly, we have seen the Euro under pressure as an agreement between Greece and the EU has so far failed to materialise. These forces have driven the pair back up over 0.6600 (under 1.5152) where it now trades. Although both sides of the Greek / EU negotiations seem polarized, the reality is a deal with Greece could be announced at any stage and this would likely see the Euro appreciate. If no agreement is reached by Friday, and Greece hasn’t applied for an extension of the bailout programme, we will likely see further Euro weakness as Greece will only be days away from running out of money.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
NZD/EURO 0.6625 0.6500 0.6700 0.6459 - 0.6618
EURO/NZD 1.5094 1.4925 1.5385 1.5111 - 1.5481

Friday 13th Feb 2:30pm(NZT)
This pair has spent much of the past week ranging around the 0.6500 (1.5385) level. All the focus is on negotiations between Greece and its EU counterparts and we are yet to see anything concrete in terms of a compromise or deal. Direction for the pair next week will largely depend on the outcome of these continuing negotiations, with Monday’s Eurogroup meetings a particular focus. Other data from Europe in the form of German economic sentiment, services PMI, and manufacturing PMI will take a back seat for the time being. From New Zealand we have another dairy auction from Fonterra to digest, along with the latest NZ retail sales data and these could certainly influence the NZD side of the equation.
The current interbank midrate is:    NZDEUR 0.6515    EURNZD 1.5349

The interbank range this week has been:    NZDEUR 0.6438 - 0.6578    EURNZD 1.5203 - 1.5533
Monday 9th Feb 4:00pm(NZT)
This pair put in a solid bounce off recent lows mid last week helped by solid employment data out of New Zealand and a gain in dairy prices. Some tentatively encouraging data from Europe recently has had little impact on the Euro as the market is more focused on the Greek / Troika stand-off. This week could prove key in those negotiations with the chance for some middle ground to be met during the Eurogroup meetings on Wednesday. If both sides remain polarised after talks this week we could easily start to see the Euro react negatively. This suggests further upside in the NZDEUR pair is a very real risk and a break above 0.6520 (below 1.5337) would signal that the next up move is under way. European developments will remain in focus with only the Business NZ Manufacturing Index set for release from New Zealand on Thursday.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
NZD/EURO 0.6500 0.6400 0.6600 0.6321 - 0.6511
EURO/NZD 1.5385 1.5152 1.5625 1.5359 - 1.5821

Thursday 5th Feb 2:30pm(NZT)
We have seen plenty of volatility over the past week and this pairing is no exception. The NZD low of 0.6321 (1.58020) traded in the wake of the Reserve Bank of Australia’s decision to cut interest rates on Tuesday. A very weak Australian dollar dragged the New Zealand dollar lower on most crosses. The weakness was only short lived however, and in the past 48 hours the pair has made significant gains. A recovery in dairy prices at Fonterra’s auction helped boost the NZD, as did some impressive employment data yesterday. It seems the Greek situation is finally starting to weigh on the Euro as well. In the past few hours an announcement from the ECB, which effectively removes a key area of liquidity support for the Greek banking system has seen the Euro come under heavy selling pressure. This has driven the pair back up over 0.6500 (under 1.05385) and further gains are likely. Greece will remain a focus next week, but we also have Euro area industrial production and GDP data to digest.
The current interbank midrate is:    NZDEUR 0.6495    EURNZD 1.5396

The interbank range this week has been:    NZDEUR 0.6321 - 0.6511    EURNZD 1.5359 - 1.5821
Tuesday 3rd Feb 4:00pm(NZT)
After breaking lower in the wake of last Thursday’s RBNZ statement, the New Zealand dollar has since been stuck in a tight trading range to the Euro around the 0.6420 (1.5576) level. The Greek political situation has yet to translate into broad based Euro weakness and it won’t be until later this month that we get to see how negotiations on Greece’s debt pile develop. There is support for the pair around 0.6380 (resistance around 1.5674) and as long as the cross holds above that level I favour a test back up toward 0.6500 or higher (1.5385 or lower). A break below 0.6380 (above 1.5674) would be a warning sign that further NZD weakness is likely to follow. From Europe over the coming days we get the final reading from Service sector PMI, retail sales, German factory orders, and the EU economic forecasts. While from NZ, we have Fonterra’s latest dairy auction, employment data and a speech from Governor Wheeler to digest.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
NZD/EURO 0.6440 0.6380 0.6600 0.6376 - 0.6621
EURO/NZD 1.5528 1.5152 1.5674 1.5105 - 1.5684

Friday 30th Jan 2:00pm(NZT)
Despite the massive quantitative easing recently announced by the ECB, and all the risks around Greece at the moment, the New Zealand dollar has actually lost ground to the Euro this week. The majority of the losses have come in the wake of yesterday’s RBNZ rate statement. Although the central bank’s move to a neutral stance was widely expected, the local currency has seen heavy selling pressure. This drove the pair down through 0.6500 (up through 1.5385) and further selling overnight has seen 0.6400 (1.5625) trade. There is support around 0.6400 (resistance around 1.5625) and this may well provide a floor, but we are in a period of heightened volatility and caution is certainly advised. Tonight we get Eurozone inflation data along with German retail sales and French consumer spending. Employment data and the latest dairy auction will draw focus next week from New Zealand.
The current interbank midrate is:    NZDEUR 0.6425    EURNZD 1.5564

The interbank range this week has been:    NZDEUR 0.6398 - 0.6711    EURNZD 1.4900 - 1.5630
Tuesday 27th Jan 4:30pm(NZT)
This pair remains well supported in the wake of last Thursday’s QE announcement from the European Central Bank (ECB). Although we are still some way from the highs of 0.6760 (low of 1.4793) seen only a couple of weeks ago, that fact that the pair remains well supported in the face of an otherwise very soft New Zealand dollar, says a lot about how much pressure the Euro is currently seeing. The political situation in Greece isn’t helping and this will be an ongoing focus for the coming month or so. I expect to see the EUR continue to struggle and we could easily see the pair back up to recent highs over the coming weeks. Key to the near term direction will be Thursday mornings RBNZ rate statement. This is the biggest risk factor on the week. Friday sees the release of inflation data from Europe which is expected to show further declines. Buying into weakness toward the 0.6500 (selling strength toward 1.5385) level is the favoured strategy for an eventual test backup over 0.6700 (under 1.4925).
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
NZD/EURO 0.6600 0.6500 0.6700 0.6478 - 0.6711
EURO/NZD 1.5152 1.4925 1.5385 1.4900 - 1.5436

Friday 23th Jan 2:00pm(NZT)
For much of this week the New Zealand dollar lost ground to the Euro, weighed on by softer than forecast NZ inflation data and a growing realization that the RBNZ are likely to be on hold well into next year. We did however see a sharp turnaround in the pair last night thanks to the massive quantitative easing programme announced by the European Central Bank. The size of the programme was at the upper end of any expectation and this saw the EUR come under immediate pressure. I would expect to continue to see the EUR struggle over the coming weeks. The question is how much of that EUR weakness will be offset by further weakness in the NZD? There is good support for the cross just under 0.6500 (resistance over 1.5385) and that level should limit any potential downside. Buying into weakness for an eventual test back over 0.6700 (under 1.4925) is the favoured play at the moment. Data from Europe next week should be of only limited impact in light of last night’s announcement, although we do have the latest inflation reading next Friday to draw focus. In NZ attention turns to the RBNZ official cash rate review on Thursday.
The current interbank midrate is:    NZDEUR 0.6615    EURNZD 1.5117

The interbank range this week has been:    NZDEUR 0.6478 - 0.6762    EURNZD 1.4788 - 1.5436
Tuesday 20th Jan 3:30pm(NZT)
The Euro has seen relentless pressure since mid-December and this has been the key force driving the NZDEUR cross up over 0.6700 (EURNZD under 1.4925). This pressure has come on the back of increasing expectation that the ECB will announce quantitative easing (QE) measures at this week’s meeting. Almost all market participants now expect that announcement to come on Thursday evening and the real interest will be in the size of the programme and how it is structured. A significant programme in excess of EUR 500 bln should keep pressure on the EUR. Greek concerns have also weighed on the Euro and that country goes to the polls this weekend in what could be a key victory for the anti-austerity Syriza party. The ramifications of a Syriza win could end up being as dramatic as a Greek exit from the Euro, although most expect some middle ground to be met between Troika and the potential new government. The main takeaway from all of this is that there is still plenty of potential for serious volatility in the EUR with the risks skewed to further weakness. Initial support come in around 0.6600 (resistance 1.5150) and while above that level the NZD topside remains in focus. Tonight we have the latest dairy auction from Fonterra and tomorrow we get NZ inflation data while in Europe all eyes will be on Thursday’s ECB meeting.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
NZD/EURO 0.6695 0.6600 0.6800 0.6522 - 0.6761
EURO/NZD 1.4937 1.4706 1.5152 1.4790 - 1.5333

Friday 19th Dec 1:00pm(NZT)
The New Zealand dollar saw pressure from a somewhat resurgent Euro in the first half of this week, driving the cross to its 0.6187 low (1.6163 high). But over the past couple of days the NZD has staged a strong recovery driven by an increase in dairy prices and much stronger than forecast GDP data. This has seen the pair back up over 0.6300 (under 1.5873) and further gains toward 0.6400 (1.5625)  can’t be ruled out. Although Europe has also seen some better than forecast data this week, the overall picture remains one of very soft growth and dangerously low inflation. It is increasingly likely the ECB will be forced to undertake outright sovereign QE next year and this expectation should limit any periods of Euro strength seen over the coming weeks. Buying dips below 0.6200 (sell rallies to 1.6130) remains the favoured play.
The current interbank midrate is:    NZDEUR 0.6320    EURNZD 1.5823

The interbank range this week has been:    NZDEUR 0.6187 - 0.6320    EURNZD 1.5824 - 1.6164
Tuesday 16th Dec 4:00pm(NZT)
The New Zealand dollar spiked up over 0.6300 (down under 1.5875) to the Euro in the wake of last week’s hawkish RBNZ statement. Since then we have seen a pullback that has largely undone most of those gains with the pair currently sitting just above 0.6200 (below 1.6130). There is good NZ dollar support for the pair down toward 0.6150 (up to 1.6260) and I expect this to contain any near term weakness. It’s looking increasingly like the ECB will have to undertake outright QE next year and this should dramatically weaken the Euro. A lot can happen between now and then however, and with the thin liquidity of the holiday season added into the mix, there is potential for plenty of volatility. Over the coming days from NZ we have another dairy auction to digest along with GDP data. From Europe we get manufacturing and service sector PMI data, along with the German ZEW economic sentiment and IFO business climate surveys.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
NZD/EURO 0.6220 0.6150 0.6350 0.6180 - 0.6311
EURO/NZD 1.6077 1.5748 1.6260 1.5845 - 1.6182

Thursday 11th Dec 4:00pm(NZT)
The New Zealand dollar saw continued pressure from the Euro over the past week, although that all changed after this morning’s RBNZ monetary policy statement. The pair recovered sharply off recent lows at 0.6180 (highs at 1.6181) after the central bank once again suggested further rate hikes a likely to be needed. This was somewhat more hawkish than the market had been expecting and the NZD has reacted very positively. The pair could now trade back toward 0.6350 (1.5748) over the coming days. Next week from New Zealand we have another dairy auction to digest along with GDP data. While from Europe we have manufacturing and service sector PMI’s to draw focus along with the German ZEW economic sentiment and IFO business climate indexes.
The current interbank midrate is:    NZDEUR 0.6278    EURNZD 1.5929

The interbank range this week has been:    NZDEUR 0.6180 - 0.6305    EURNZD 1.5861 - 1.6182
Tuesday 9th Dec 3:30pm(NZT)
The past week has seen significant losses for this pair driven on two fronts. Firstly the NZD has been under pressure on the back of falling dairy prices and the expectation that Fonterra will revise down their forecast payout for 2014/15. That announcement is likely to come out in the next 48 hours, but we also have RBNZ monetary policy statement on Thursday morning and they too are expected to revise down their forecasts for GDP and inflation. The degree to which they revise that down could have a big impact on the level of the NZD. On the Euro side of the equation there was some disappointment at the lack of concrete plans for QE released at the ECB meeting last week, and this prompted some short covering of sold EUR positions. It seems likely that any near term buying of Euro’s will quickly dissipate and this should at least slow the downside momentum in the pair. The current move could however easily trade down toward 0.6150 (up toward 1.6260) before finding support. In Europe this week the focus will turn to Thursday’s targeted LTRO announcement. While from NZ we await the announcements from Fonterra and the Reserve Bank.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
NZD/EURO 0.6200 0.6150 0.6350 0.6211 - 0.6328
EURO/NZD 1.6129 1.5748 1.6260 1.5803 - 1.6120

Thursday 4th Dec 3:30pm(NZT)
The past week has seen a continuation of largely sideways price action for this pair with the cross trading at almost the same level it was this time last week. Both the New Zealand dollar and the Euro have seen periods of pressure during the week thanks to declining dairy prices and further soft Eurozone data, but neither currency has dramatically underperformed and as such the cross has been range bound. Key to near term direction however will be tonight’s European Central Bank meeting. Any suggestion that outright sovereign QE is close will see the Euro come under further pressure. From New Zealand next week we have the RBNZ monetary policy statement to digest on Thursday. While from the Eurozone there is a rash of second tier data set for release along with the results of the targeted LTRO.
The current interbank midrate is:    NZDEUR 0.6293    EURNZD 1.5891

The interbank range this week has been:    NZDEUR 0.6253 - 0.6332    EURNZD 1.5793 - 1.5992
Tuesday 2nd Dec 1:30pm(NZT)
The past week has seen sideways price action in this pair between the somewhat tighter parameters of 0.6250 and 0.6330 (1.6000 and 1.5798). Although some data points out of Europe have shown a small improvement recently, and this has helped the EUR stabilize to a degree, the longer term outlook is for further Euro weakness. With that in mind buying dips in this pair toward 0.6250 (selling rallies toward 1.6000) remains the favoured play. We have Fonterra’s latest dairy auction tonight and this could certainly impact demand for New Zealand dollars in the near term. From Europe this week the focus will be on the ECB rate meeting and subsequent press conference on Thursday night.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
NZD/EURO 0.6306 0.6200 0.6400 0.6249 - 0.6332
EURO/NZD 1.5858 1.5625 1.6129 1.5793 - 1.6003

Friday 28th Nov 1:00pm(NZT)
The first half of this week saw the NZD pull back from recent highs, largely on the back of improved demand for Euros. A slight improvement in some data released from the Eurozone, notably the German IFO Business Climate Index, helped to underpin this move, although some relative New Zealand dollar weakness on the back of declining inflation expectations also played a part. The cross traded down toward 0.6250 (up to 1.6000), before staging something of a recovery. The 0.6250 (1.6000) level is key and as long as the market is contained by that level, there further tests of the NZD topside remain likely. Buying ahead of that level is therefore recommended for those looking to purchase NZD with Euro. From NZ next week we have the overseas trade index and Fonterra’s latest dairy auction to draw focus. While from Europe we have retail sales, German factory orders, PMI’s from Spain and Italy and the ECB meeting to digest.
The current interbank midrate is:    NZDEUR 0.6300    EURNZD 1.5873

The interbank range this week has been:    NZDEUR 0.6249 - 0.6389    EURNZD 1.5653 - 1.6003
Tuesday 25th Nov 3:30pm(NZT)
It has been a choppy past week for this pair with significant swings in price action. Some improving data released from the Eurozone has resulted in periods of reduced pressure on the Euro and this combined with movements in the NZD has seen the cross fall from 0.6380 to 0.6240 (rally from 1.5674 to 1.6026) and then recover back up again. In the past 24 hours we have seen some relative NZD weakness which probably provides a buying opportunity in the pair. Currently trading around 0.6325 (1.5810), there is minor support at 0.6290 (resistance at 1.5898) which may well now contain the NZD downside. The longer term trend in the cross is up with the Euro expected to remain under pressure against the NZD heading into year end. Still to come this week from NZ we have the trade balance, building consents and business confidence numbers. While from Europe we have German retail sales, French consumer spending, inflation and unemployment data.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
NZD/EURO 0.6315 0.6200 0.6400 0.6234 - 0.6389
EURO/NZD 1.5835 1.5625 1.6129 1.5653 - 1.6040

Friday 21st Nov 1:30pm(NZT)
After making NZD gains in the early stages of this week we have since seen a sharp turnaround and pullback in this pair with it now trading around 0.6270 (1.5950). The weeks high of 0.6375 (low 1.5690) traded in the wake of much better than forecast retail sales data from New Zealand which supported the local currency. This was short lived however, as a further decline in dairy prices at Fonterra’s latest auction weighed on the NZD. Although European data has been a mixed bag this week, the improvements seen in the ZEW economic sentiment index provided enough of a bright spot to limit further Euro weakness, at least for now. So far support around 0.6240 (resistance 1.6025) has contained the NZD pullback and as long as that remains the case the NZ dollar could build a base from which to rally again. A move below 0.6240 (above 1.6025) would open the way for a move down to the next support level of 0.6150 (resistance 1.6260). Next week from NZ we have inflation expectations, the trade balance, building consents and business confidence data to digest. While in Europe the focus will be on inflation and unemployment data, although we also have the German business climate index, German retail sales and French consumer spending figures set for release.
The current interbank midrate is:    NZDEUR 0.6268    EURNZD 1.5954

The interbank range this week has been:    NZDEUR 0.6234 - 0.6375    EURNZD 1.5685 - 1.6040
Tuesday 18th Nov 3:00pm(NZT)
This pair has seen a relentless march higher from the NZ dollar over the past week touching a high last night of 0.6375 (low 1.5685). The most recent gains came after the New Zealand dollar received a boost from much better than forecast retail sales numbers yesterday, and for the time being the risks are still skewed towards further NZD outperformance. GDP data out of Europe at the end of last week was a touch better than expectation, although this only provided temporary relief for the Euro which has remained broadly under pressure recently. There is minor resistance around 0.6375 (1.5685) and while this caps further NZ dollar appreciation, there is potential for a pullback to support now seen around 0.6300 (rally to 1.5875). But as long as the market hold above that level further NZD gains are likely. In NZ the focus now turns to Fonterra’s dairy auction tonight which will be followed by producer prices data on Thursday. While from Europe we get German ZEW economic sentiment numbers tonight then later in the week the focus will turn to manufacturing and service sector PMI data.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
NZD/EURO 0.6365 0.6200 0.6400 0.6220 - 0.6375
EURO/NZD 1.5711 1.5625 1.6129 1.5685 - 1.6078

Friday 14th Nov 1:30pm(NZT)
It has been largely one way traffic for this pair over the past week with the move coming on the back of a combination of New Zealand dollar strength and Euro weakness. The NZD has gained on most crosses this week with no fundamental data that you can identify as the driver. While from Europe continued subdued economic releases have provided little support for the EUR and that trend is likely to continue tonight with the release of GDP data. Official estimates are for a gain of 0.1% for the quarter, but there is a very real chance of a flat or even negative result. Expect further pressure on the EUR if that is the case. After such a strong move we could easily see a corrective pullback toward 0.6260 (rally to 1.5974), however the longer term risks remain to the NZD topside and buying into any potential weakness is recommended. 50% of forecasters expect the ECB to enter into outright sovereign debt QE by the end of the year. If they do take that next step the pair will quickly eclipse the 2014 highs of 0.6493 (lows of 1.5401).
The current interbank midrate is:    NZDEUR 0.6310    EURNZD 1.5848

The interbank range this week has been:    NZDEUR 0.6190 - 0.6356    EURNZD 1.5733 - 1.6155
Tuesday 11th Nov 2:00pm(NZT)
This pair has been trading sideways within a well-defined range since the beginning of October. The bottom of that range comes in around 0.6150 ( top 1.6260) and buying NZ dollars on dips is the recommended trading approach. In the later stages of last week the New Zealand dollar largely outperformed the Euro, particularly in the wake of Friday night’s US employment data, and as such the pair tested the top of its recent range at 0.6260 (lows at 1.5974). So far that has capped NZD gains and we could easily see pullback toward the middle of the range over the coming days. Longer term however, I believe the risks are skewed toward Euro underperformance and as such a break above 0.6260 (below 1.5974) is likely at some stage over the coming weeks / months. Hence the recommendation to buy dips toward 0.6160 (selling rallies toward 1.6234). The RBNZ’s Financial Stability Report will draw focus tomorrow as will comments from Governor Wheeler when he testifies in front of a parliamentary committee. While from Europe we have Eurozone industrial production, GDP and the final reading of inflation to draw focus.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
NZD/EURO 0.6240 0.6150 0.6300 0.6148 - 0.6263
EURO/NZD 1.6026 1.5873 1.6260 1.5966 - 1.6265

Friday 7th Nov 1:30pm(NZT)
The past week has seen a continuation of choppy price action for this pair within an increasingly familiar range. There has been little in the way of overall direction with both currencies seeing periods of pressure at various times. With the market increasingly expecting further action from the ECB in December, buying any dips toward 0.6160 (selling rallies to 1.6230) is recommended as we should see repeated periods of Euro underperformance heading into year end. This should see the pair recover back toward 0.6260 (correct down to 1.5975) after any potential bout of weakness. Next week from NZ we have the RBNZ’s financial stability report and the Business NZ manufacturing index to draw focus. While from Europe we get industrial production numbers along with GDP data from France, Germany, Italy and the Eurozone as a whole. We also have the final reading of Eurozone inflation to digest.
The current interbank midrate is:    NZDEUR 0.6212    EURNZD 1.6098

The interbank range this week has been:    NZDEUR 0.6148 - 0.6263    EURNZD 1.5966 - 1.6265
Tuesday 4th Nov 2:30pm(NZT)
This pair has seen some good volatility over the past week, but as has been the case since the end of September, there is little overall direction. Both currencies have seen periods of pressure, the most notable of which for the NZD was in the wake of Thursday’s RBNZ rate statement. While the Euro has struggled to find any support from economic data releases. The downside is support around 0.6150 (resistance around 1.6260), while resistance on the topside comes in just ahead of 0.6300 (support 1.5873). We can expect further ranging between those two levels over the coming week, however I favour buying weakness in the NZ dollar, with a view that the EUR should remain under pressure heading into year end. From New Zealand this week we have employment data and the latest dairy auction to digest. While from Europe we get service sector PMI’s over the coming days along with EU economic forecasts, German factory orders, French industrial production and the ECB rate meeting.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
NZD/EURO 0.6180 0.6150 0.6300 0.6152 - 0.6263
EURO/NZD 1.6181 1.5873 1.6260 1.5966 - 1.6254

Thursday 30th Oct 3:30PM (NZT)
Some relative strength in the New Zealand dollar over the early stages of this week saw this pair grinding higher. The cross peaked at 0.6248 (bottomed at 1.6005) last night, but since then we have seen a significant fall driven by NZD weakness in the wake of the Federal Reserve and RBNZ rate statements. The NZD dramatically underperformed after the Fed statement early this morning and the downside continued after the RBNZ’s very neutral statement. It now looks likely the RBNZ are on hold through to late next year and this is pressuring the local currency. There is minor support around 0.6150 (resistance around 1.6260) however, and this has contained the downside for now. A break through that level would open the way for a test of the recent cycle low at 0.6079 (high at 1.6450). Next week from NZ we have another global dairy auction from Fonterra, along with the latest employment numbers. While from Europe there is a raft of second tier data set of release ahead of the main focus which is Thursday’s ECB rate meeting and subsequent press conference.
The current interbank midrate is:    NZDEUR 0.6175    EURNZD 1.6194

The interbank range this week has been:    NZDEUR 0.6152 - 0.6248    EURNZD 1.6006 - 1.6254
Tuesday 28th Oct 2:30pm(NZT)
For much of last week the New Zealand dollar was seeing grinding appreciation over the Euro. That all changed on Thursday however, in the wake of softer than forecast NZ inflation data. The NZD saw a dramatic fall that drove this pair back to 0.6170 (rally to 1.6207). We have seen a gradual NZ dollar recovery since then, with the market now trading around 0.6210 (1.6103). Further gains may well be seen toward 0.6240 (1.6026) ahead of Thursday’s RBNZ rate statement. This will provide the main focus for NZ on the week. From Europe we had the ECB stress test results out yesterday, but with no major shocks in the data the market took it all in its stride. Eurozone inflation data on Friday is the highlight of European data ahead of which we get German inflation, unemployment and retails sales, along with French consumer spending.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
NZD/EURO 0.6212 0.6100 0.6300 0.6171 - 0.6286
EURO/NZD 1.6098 1.5873 1.6393 1.5908 - 1.6206

Thursday 23th Oct 3:30PM (NZT)
The Euro has been under gradual pressure this week thanks to increasingly negative sentiment around the economic outlook for the Eurozone. This helped to dive the cross to the NZD up over 0.6280 yesterday evening (down to 1.5925), before something of a sharp correction ensued. The correction lower for the NZD has been driven solely on weakness in the lead up to, and after, the release of softer than expected inflation data earlier this morning. With NZ inflation running at only 1.0% year on year there is little hurry for the RBNZ to raise rates again. The market consensus is now that the central bank could well be on hold until late 2015. As a result the NZD has seen renewed selling pressure and I would expect it to remain subdued over the coming days. A move down toward minor support around 0.6160 (up to 1.6230) is certainly possible in the near term. Next week from NZ, we have business confidence, building permits and the RBNZ rate statement to digest. While from Europe we have German retails sales, German IFO business climate, French consumer spending, unemployment and inflation data to digest.
The current interbank midrate is:    NZDEUR 0.6209    EURNZD 1.6106

The interbank range this week has been:    NZDEUR 0.6158 - 0.6286    EURNZD 1.5908 - 1.6238
Monday 20th Oct 3:30PM (NZT)
This pair has continued to trade in a sideways range over the past week, despite increasing concerns about European growth. The 0.6180 to 0.6240 (1.6181 to 1.6026) range has contained the majority of price action with the pair looking like the top of that range will be tested early this week. I see little reason to believe the Euro will strengthen over the coming weeks, and in fact the risks of another significant down leg in the Euro must have increased. This could well see the NZD break above 0.6240 (below 1.6026) and a move up over 0.6300 (under 1.5873) eventuate. This week from NZ we have inflation and trade balance data to digest. While from Europe manufacturing and service PMI’s will draw attention.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
NZD/EURO 0.6230 0.6100 0.6300 0.6157 - 0.6242
EURO/NZD 1.6051 1.5873 1.6393 1.6020 - 1.6241

Friday 17th Oct 2:30PM (NZT)
The past week has seen mostly sideways trading for this pair in a relatively tight range around 0.6200 (1.6130). The Euro has so far failed to weaken significantly over the past couple of weeks despite concerning data and a worrying move higher in long term interest rates for some of the peripheral Eurozone countries. I still favour buying NZ dollars in dips in demand, with the expectation that the Euro will again come under significant pressure at some stage over the coming weeks. A break above 0.6250 (below 1.6000) would signal just that, and this would open the way for a test toward 0.6350 (1.5750). Next week in New Zealand the focus turns to inflation data and the trade balance. While from Europe we have manufacturing and service PMI’s from France, Germany and the Eurozone as a whole to draw focus.
The current interbank midrate is:    NZDEUR 0.6210    EURNZD 1.6103

The interbank range this week has been:    NZDEUR 0.6166 - 0.6242    EURNZD 1.6020 - 1.6218
Tuesday 14th Oct 2:30PM (NZT)
This pair continues to trade in a choppy range between the broad parameters of 0.6150 and 0.6250 (1.6260 and 1.6000). Increasing concerns about the outlook for European growth and inflation have yet to feed through into further Euro weakness, but that’s no reason to think it won’t eventually come. Data from New Zealand has had little impact over the past week although that could change with the release of tomorrow night’s dairy auction results from Fonterra. From Europe this week we have German economic sentiment, Eurozone industrial production, and the final reading of inflation to digest. I expect dips toward 0.6150 (rallies to 1.6260) to continue to provide good value buying of NZ dollars, with the risks skewed to a break higher for the pair over the coming weeks.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
NZD/EURO 0.6180 0.6100 0.6300 0.6147 - 0.6236
EURO/NZD 1.6181 1.5873 1.6393 1.6035 - 1.6268

Friday 10th Oct 2:30PM (NZT)
The past week has seen largely sideways trading for this pair with price action broadly contained between 0.6150 and 0.6250 (1.6260 and 1.6000). The New Zealand dollar did significantly outperform the Euro yesterday morning in the wake of the Fed minutes release, but the pair couldn’t get higher than 0.6236 (lower than 1.6036) and overnight it has drifted back to mid-range. Data from Europe has failed to show any life recently and this should eventually weigh further on the Euro. New Zealand data this week has had little market impact and next week is another quiet one. We just have the business NZ manufacturing index and another Global Dairy Trade auction from Fonterra to digest. From Europe we get German ZEW economic sentiment data and the final reading of Eurozone inflation along with a number of speeches from ECB President Draghi. I expect support around 0.6100 (resistance around 1.6393) to contain any near term weakness and buying NZD’s ahead of that level is recommended as the medium term outlook for the Euro remains negative.
The current interbank midrate is:    NZDEUR 0.6190    EURNZD 1.6155

The interbank range this week has been:    NZDEUR 0.6147 - 0.6242    EURNZD 1.6021 - 1.6268
Tuesday 7th Oct 2:30PM (NZT)
The past week has seen the New Zealand dollar recover all the ground lost sharply last Monday in the wake of the revelation of RBNZ intervention. The pair traded up to a high of 0.6252 (low of 1.5995) on Thursday, as a short squeeze in the NZD saw a sharp appreciation of the local currency. Since then trading has been somewhat subdued with the pair currently ranging around 0.6200 (1.6129). Direction from here is a tough call. Most likely a period of consolidation between 0.6100 and 0.6300 (1.6393 and 1.5873) will ensue and that range could easily contain the pair for the coming weeks. With little in the way of key data from NZ or Europe this week we are left with a speech by ECB President on Thursday to draw focus.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
NZD/EURO 0.6190 0.6100 0.6300 0.6107 - 0.6252
EURO/NZD 1.6155 1.5873 1.6393 1.5994 - 1.6374

Friday 3rd Oct 3:30PM (NZT)
It has been a volatile week for this pair with a sizable range traded. The week’s low traded on Monday after it was revealed the RBNZ has intervened by selling currency in August. The pair snapped lower touching 0.6083 (1.6439) before staging what has turned out to be a substantial recovery. The drivers for the recovery have been two-fold. Firstly the EUR was seeing pressure in the lead up to last night’s ECB meeting, but the sharpest gains for the pair came on the back of a short squeeze in the New Zealand dollar yesterday. The NZD failed to see much in the way of fresh selling after another poor dairy auction from Fonterra on Wednesday night, and this was a warning sign the market was overly short (sold) New Zealand dollars. The NZD then started to creep higher yesterday and eventually ran into large stop-loss buy orders. This caused the pair to trade up to the weeks high at 0.6252 (low at 1.5595). I don’t expect the pair to make big gains from here. Resistance between 0.6260 and 0.6300 (1.5974 and 1.5873) is solid and this is likely to cap the topside for now at least. The coming week may well see a period of consolidation with prices ranging between 0.6100 and 0.6300 (1.6393 and 1.5873). The economic calendar from Europe is light next week with the highlights being German factory orders, French industrial production and a speech by Draghi. From NZ we just have the quarterly NZIER business confidence reading on Tuesday to digest.
The current interbank midrate is:    NZDEUR 0.6235    EURNZD 1.6038

The interbank range this week has been:    NZDEUR 0.6083 - 0.6252    EURNZD 1.5995 - 1.6439
Tuesday 30th Sept 12:00PM (NZT)
The past week has seen the New Zealand dollar lose significant ground to the Euro. These losses have all be on the back of NZD weakness. Two key releases from the Reserve Bank of New Zealand have done the damage. Firstly we had last week’s press release stating how the level of the NZD was ‘unjustified’ and ‘unsustainable’ and that these were key considerations when deciding to intervene. Then yesterday we find out that the RBNZ did just that in August when they sold NZ$ 521 million. This spooked the market and sent the NZD spiralling lower. So far the pair has found support around 0.6080 (resistance around 1.6447), but looking further out a move toward 0.5900 (1.6950) looks likely. From NZ this week we have the latest Fonterra dairy auction to draw focus. While from Europe this week we get inflation, unemployment, German retail sales, and French consumer spending along with the ECB rate meeting.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
NZD/EURO 0.6125 0.6000 0.6200 0.6083 - 0.6330
EURO/NZD 1.6327 1.6129 1.6667 1.5798 - 1.6439

Friday 26th Sept 3:30PM (NZT)
There has been little in the way of data this week to support the Euro, although that hasn’t stopped it dramatically outperforming the New Zealand dollar. The NZD started the week on an optimistic note after the general election result. It was not to last however. Fonterra’s downward revision to its forecasted pay-out weighed on the NZD, but the real damage was done by the RBNZ when they released a statement on the currency yesterday. They did a textbook job of ‘jawboning’ the currency lower as the market then pushed the NZD below key support levels on a number of crosses. The selling pressure continued in the offshore trading session with a low against the Euro of 0.6211 (high of 1.6100) so far. If the NZD sees further pressure a test of support around 0.6160 (resistance around 1.6234) seems likely. From NZ next week we have building consents and business confidence data to digest. While in Europe the focus turns to inflation data on Tuesday and the ECB rate meeting on Thursday.
The current interbank midrate is:    NZDEUR 0.6213    EURNZD 1.6095

The interbank range this week has been:    NZDEUR 0.6211 - 0.6361    EURNZD 1.5721 - 1.6101
Tuesday 23rd Sept 4:00PM (NZT)
The past week has seen largely directionless trade for this pairing. We did see a small bout of strength early on Monday as the New Zealand dollar gained some ground after the election result, but the impact was only short lived. The pair has now fallen back into the middle of the week’s range and further sideways trade is expected.  This week is a quiet one for data from New Zealand with only the trade balance of any note. While from Europe we get manufacturing and service sector PMI’s along with the German IFO business climate index. Minor support toward 0.6280 (resistance around 1.5924) looks likely to contain the NZD down side in the near term.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
NZD/EURO 0.6306 0.6200 0.6400 0.6276 - 0.6361
EURO/NZD 1.5858 1.5625 1.6129 1.5721 - 1.5933

Friday 19th Sept 2:00PM (NZT)
There has been little overall direction in this pair over the course of the week. A period of New Zealand dollar underperformance did see the pair trade down to its lowest level since June, but it was quickly reversed and sideways trading around 0.6300 (1.5873) has ensued. The very poor take up of the ECB’s targeted LTRO hasn’t had a major impact on the currency so far, but it’s hard to see how it could be viewed as anything other than negative. Look for dips below 0.6300 (above 1.5873) to continue to provide good buying of NZD’s in the near term with potential for a move back toward initial resistance at 0.6360 (support at 1.5723). The G20 meetings this weekend will draw focus and next week from Europe we get manufacturing and service PMI’s, German IFO business climate index and consumer confidence. While from New Zealand we have consumer sentiment and the trade balance to draw focus.
The current interbank midrate is:    NZDEUR 0.6310    EURNZD 1.5848

The interbank range this week has been:    NZDEUR 0.6268 - 0.6342    EURNZD 1.5768 - 1.5953
Tuesday 16th Sept 3:00PM (NZT)
For much of the past week the New Zealand dollar lost ground against the Euro and this drove the pair to a low of 0.6268 (high of 1.5954) during trading yesterday. Weakness in the NZD was the main driver after the RBNZ did its best to talk the currency down at last week’s monetary policy statement. In the last 24 hours we have seen a decent bounce from the NZD and this has helped the pair recover back above 0.6300 (below 1.5873). Near term direction will likely be dictated by results from the dairy auction tonight, then current account and GDP data over the coming days. From Europe the focus now turns to the upcoming TLTRO (Targeted Long-Term Refinancing Operation) and the implications the level of take-up has on the state of the European economy.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
NZD/EURO 0.6324 0.6200 0.6400 0.6268 - 0.6423
EURO/NZD 1.5813 1.5625 1.6129 1.5568 - 1.5953

Friday 12th Sept 2:00PM (NZT)
Recent weakness in the New Zealand dollar has driven this pair all the way back to where it was prior to the ECB announcing rate cuts and targeted QE last Thursday. The Euro lost significant ground after that announcement and this drove the pair up toward 0.6430 (down to 1.5550). But the NZD has dramatically underperformed this week and as such the pair finds itself 100 points lower. Yesterday’s RBNZ monetary policy statement played a major roll as the bank confirmed market expectations for a prolonged pause, and then had some strong words re the value of the New Zealand dollar. This heaped the pressure on the local currency and it has yet to recover. There is significant support between 0.6320 and 0.6300 (resistance 1.5820-70) and I expect this to contain the NZ dollar downside for now at least. We get Eurozone industrial production data tonight, and next week the focus turns to economic sentiment, inflation and current account numbers. From NZ we have GDP data on Thursday to draw focus.
The current interbank midrate is:    NZDEUR 0.6324    EURNZD 1.5813

The interbank range this week has been:    NZDEUR 0.6316 - 0.6435    EURNZD 1.5540- 1.5833
Tuesday 9th Sept 2:00PM (NZT)
Price action in this pair over the past week has been dominated by the dramatic selling of Euro’s in the wake of Thursday night’s ECB meeting. The EUR came under all sorts of pressure after the central bank announced further interest rate cuts and a programme of quantitative easing. This drove the cross to the New Zealand dollar up over 0.6400 (under 1.5625) where it has been consolidating ever since. The risks are skewed to further Euro weakness and a move up toward July’s high of 0.6493 (low of 1.5401). Downside support come in around 0.6370 (resistance around 1.5700) and this should contain any near term weakness. This week from NZ we have the RBNZ monetary policy statement to draw focus. While from Europe we get the ECB monthly bulletin, a speech by President Draghi and industrial production data.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
NZD/EURO 0.6415 0.6300 0.6500 0.6316 - 0.6435
EURO/NZD 1.5588 1.5385 1.5875 1.5540- 1.5833

Friday 5th Sept 2:30PM (NZT)
The New Zealand dollar has managed to outperform the Euro this week, but only because the EUR got absolutely hammered last night in the wake of the ECB’s rate cut and QE announcement. The European Central Bank has now played all their cards and if nothing else these measures should continue to weaken the Euro further. The NZD has also seen pressure this week driven by further declines in dairy prices, and it’s only due to this that we are seeing the cross around 0.6400 (1.5625) and not 0.6500(1.5385). The risks are all skewed to the topside and further NZD gains over the coming weeks seem likely. Big support now seen toward 0.6300 (resistance 1.5875) looks very unlikely to be tested again. We have the RBNZ rate meeting next week to draw focus in New Zealand. While from Europe we get the German trade balance, French industrial production and the ECB monthly bulletin.
The current interbank midrate is:    NZDEUR 0.6405    EURNZD 1.5613

The interbank range this week has been:    NZDEUR 0.6301 - 0.6428    EURNZD 1.5557- 1.5870
Tuesday 2nd Sept 2:00PM (NZT)
The New Zealand dollar has seen grinding appreciation against the Euro this week, which has largely come on the back of Euro weakness. The outlook for Europe’s extremely fragile recovery remains far from certain and it’s hard to see where genuine growth is going to come from. German adherence to strict deficit reduction targets is strangling growth prospects and it is looking increasingly likely that the European Central Bank will have to undertake some sort of quantitative easing programme over the coming months. The central bank may well signal as much at the conclusion of the rate meeting on Thursday night. This outlook is weighing on the Euro and will continue to do so. The pair could easily head back to the highs set back in July just below 0.6500(lows 1.5385). Tonight we have the latest dairy auction from Fonterra and this provides the immediate focus for the New Zealand dollar. Prices seemed to stabilize somewhat a fortnight ago after falling more than 40% in the past six months and the NZD won’t want to see further declines. Support for the pair comes in around 0.6300 (resistance 1.5875) and that level should contain any potential near term New Zealand dollar weakness on this pairing.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
NZD/EURO 0.6380 0.6300 0.6500 0.6303 - 0.6387
EURO/NZD 1.5674 1.5385 1.5875 1.5656- 1.5864

Friday 29th Aug 1:30PM (NZT)
Some early weakness in the New Zealand dollar saw this pair trade down to just above 0.6300 (below 1.5875) at the start of the week. Since then however, we have seen something of a recovery helped by a growing expectation that the ECB will undertake quantitative easing in the foreseeable future. This along with continued poor data from Europe is keeping the Euro on the defensive and tonight’s inflation data is unlikely to change that. While minor resistance around 0.6370 (support 1.5700) caps the NZD  topside, further sideways trading between there and 0.6300 (1.5875) will ensue. A move above 0.6370 (below 1.5700) would open the way for a move back up toward 0.6470 (1.5455). This is the favoured scenario at some stage over the coming couple of weeks. Next week from NZ we only have the overseas trade index to digest, while from Europe the focus turns to the ECB rate meeting on Thursday. Ahead of that we get manufacturing and service PMI’s from Spain and Italy along with Eurozone retail sales and German factory orders.
The current interbank midrate is:    NZDEUR 0.6345    EURNZD 1.5760

The interbank range this week has been:    NZDEUR 0.6303 - 0.6367    EURNZD 1.5705- 1.5864
Tuesday 26th Aug 1:30PM (NZT)
Both the Euro and the New Zealand dollar have seen periods of pressure over the past week, although it is the NZD that has dramatically underperformed in the past 30 hours. The local currency was thumped lower in early Monday morning trade yesterday and the failure to show any significant recovery has only encouraging further selling. The risks are all still skewed to the downside. There is some support for the pair just below 0.6300 (resistance above 1.5873) and it looks likely that will be tested in the near term. If we do get a bounce in NZD demand from that level it will run into resistance toward 0.6360 (support toward 1.5723) and I expect that to cap any potential NZD strength for now. From NZ this week we just have building consents and business confidence data to digest. While from Europe we get German unemployment and retail sales, along with Eurozone inflation and unemployment.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
NZD/EURO 0.6314 0.6200 0.6400 0.6294 - 0.6367
EURO/NZD 1.5838 1.5625 1.6129 1.5705- 1.5888

Friday 22nd Aug 2:00PM (NZT)
Both the New Zealand dollar and the Euro have seen periods of pressure this week, but overall it is the NZD that has under-performed. As a result the cross rate has made its way back down toward 0.6300 (up to 1.5873) after starting the week above 0.6350 (below 1.5748). Soft NZ producer prices data on Tuesday had a significant impact and this was followed by declining inflation expectations. European data has also been disappointing and this has help to support the pair around 0.6300 (cap the pair around 1.5873). If we get a sustained break through that level then the target will shift to 0.6175 (1.6194). ECB President Mario Draghi is scheduled to speak at the Jackson Hole central bankers’ symposium this weekend and this provides the initial focus. Next week from New Zealand we have the trade balance, building consents, and business confidence data. While in Europe the focus turns to the German business climate index, along with Eurozone unemployment and inflation.
The current interbank midrate is:    NZDEUR 0.6320    EURNZD 1.5823

The interbank range this week has been:    NZDEUR 0.6294 - 0.6353    EURNZD 1.5741- 1.5888
Tuesday 19th Aug 4:30PM (NZT)
Continued soft data out of Europe has kept the Euro under pressure, although moves in the NZD have really driven the pair this week. A small recovery in the New Zealand dollar mid last week, helped by better than forecast NZ retails sales data, saw this pair bounce from 0.6300 to a high of 0.6362 (from 1.5873 to a low of 1.5718). Sideways trading from there ensued until this morning’s NZ PPI data that was much weaker than forecast. This saw the NZD marked sharply lower and as such the cross to the EUR is now focused back down on the 0.6300 (up to 1.5873) level. Key to near term direction will be tonight’s dairy auction. The NZD looks and feels vulnerable and another decline in dairy prices could see some key levels in the NZD come under pressure. A sustained move below 0.6300 (above 1.5873) would open the way for further NZ dollar losses to toward 0.6175 (gains toward 1.6194). From Europe this week we have manufacturing and service PMI number to draw focus.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
NZD/EURO 0.6318 0.6300 0.6362 0.6291 - 0.6362
EURO/NZD 1.5828 1.5385 1.5875 1.5718- 1.5897

Friday 15th Aug 3:55PM (NZT)
This pair has traded a relatively contained range this week. The NZ dollar was under some pressure early, but has recovered as the better than expected NZ retails sales numbers combined with the soft European data to reverse the initial moves. If the improved geo-political situation continues, the NZ dollar may see ongoing demand. The European manufacturing and services numbers offer the primary data focus next week, albeit with an eye also on the global dairy trade auction results. A move through .6360 initial resistance (1.5725 initial support ) would open up the way for some further NZD appreciation, and it remains the side most at risk at the current time.
The current interbank midrate is:    NZDEUR .6348    EURNZD 1.5753

The interbank range this week has been:    NZDEUR .6290 - .6362    EURNZD 1.5718 - 1.5898
Tuesday 12th Aug 2:00PM (NZT)
With both the New Zealand dollar and the Euro coming under pressure over the past few weeks the cross rate between the two currencies has been chopping around in a tight range, with a very slight bias toward NZ dollar underperformance. For the time being the NZD topside looks to be limited to resistance around 0.6370 (support around 1.5700) and further tests of 0.6300 on the NZ dollar downside (1.5873 on the topside) are expected. A sustained break below 0.6300 (above 1.5873) will open the way for a move toward 0.6200 (1.6129). Data from NZ this week that could influence includes the Business NZ manufacturing index and retail sales. While from Europe we get German economic sentiment data, GDP, the ECB monthly bulletin and the final reading of inflation.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
NZD/EURO 0.6316 0.6300 0.6500 1.5702- 1.5864
EURO/NZD 1.5833 1.5385 1.5875 0.6303 - 0.6369

Friday 8th Aug 2:30PM (NZT)
Continued soft data from Europe has weighed on the Euro this week, although it has managed to outperform the New Zealand dollar that saw sharp losses in the wake of a further decline in dairy prices. Another big fall of 8.4% in prices paid at Fonterra’s Global Dairy Trade auction immediately saw the NZD marked lower and when this was followed by softer than forecast NZ employment data the pair traded to its 0.6303 low (1.5865 high). We have seen a decent recovery from that low helped by some very ‘dovish’ comments from ECB president Draghi after last night’s rate meeting. With both the NZD and the EUR under continued pressure at the moment we can expect further choppy trading as periods of weakness in either currency drive the price action. Next week from NZ we have retail sales and the Business NZ manufacturing index. While from Europe we get German economic sentiment, industrial production, GDP, inflation and the ECB’s monthly bulletin.
The current interbank midrate is:    NZDEUR 0.6332    EURNZD 1.5792

The interbank range this week has been:    NZDEUR 0.6303 - 0.6369    EURNZD 1.5702- 1.5864
Tuesday 5th Aug 1:30PM (NZT)
This pair has remained largely directionless over the past week happily trading around the 0.6340 (1.5773) level. The low of 0.6317 (high of 1.5830) traded in the volatile period around Friday night’s US employment data, but it was short lived. If the pair can manage a move above 0.6360 (below 1.5723) this will open the way for further gains toward 0.6400 (1.5625). Tomorrow from New Zealand we get employment data and later in the week the ECB hold their regular rate meeting. Ahead of that meeting there is a raft of second tier Eurozone data scheduled which will likely continue to show a sluggish economy in the region.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
NZD/EURO 0.6348 0.6300 0.6500 0.6317 - 0.6367
EURO/NZD 1.5753 1.5385 1.5875 1.5705- 1.5830

Friday 1st Aug 1:50PM (NZT)
This pair has been largely range bound over the course of this week. We did see a move down to recent NZ dollar lows in the wake of Fonterra’s forecasted pay-out for 2014/15. The NZ$6 estimate was the low end of expectations and this saw the NZD lose further ground. The pair broke through support around 0.6350 (resistance around 1.5748) and that level has largely capped this NZ dollar recovery since. However, the Euro itself has also seen selling pressure this week and this has insulated the broadly weaker NZ dollar. Eurozone inflation data last night again printed weaker than expected and this won’t make pleasant reading for the ECB. The pair now trades back at 0.6350 (1.5748) and if we can get a sustained NZ dollar recovery through this level, a broader bounce toward 0.6400 ( dip to 1.5625) is likely. The focus next week in Europe will be the ECB rate meeting, although the central bank have made it clear they won’t take any further action until at least December. From NZ we have employment data and the labour cost index to digest.
The current interbank midrate is:    NZDEUR 0.6352    EURNZD 1.5743

The interbank range this week has been:    NZDEUR 0.6327 - 0.6380    EURNZD 1.5674- 1.5805
Tuesday 29th July 1:30PM (NZT)
Last Wednesday’s RBNZ rate statement has been the driving force for this pair over the past week. The New Zealand dollar traded dramatically lower in the wake of that release thanks to a pause in the tightening cycle and some strong words from the bank with regards to the level of the currency. The pair traded to a NZD low of 0.6349 (high of 1.5751). Although the losses have now moderated, we are yet to see any meaningful bounce. The Euro itself has seen some selling pressure recently, although it has been a very gradual affair and it was completely overrun by last week’s NZD losses. Support for the pair around 0.6350 (resistance around 1.5748) has yet to be broken and this would suggest we could still see a recovery. If we do get a move below 0.6350 (above 1.5748), then further NZ dollar losses to 0.6300 (1.5873,) and possibly even 0.6200 (1.6129) are on the cards. From NZ this week we only have building consents data set for release, while from Europe the focus turns to German and Eurozone inflation, French consumer spending, and unemployment data.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
NZD/EURO 0.6365 0.6300 0.6500 0.6349 - 0.6466
EURO/NZD 1.5711 1.5385 1.5875 1.5466- 1.5751

Friday 25th July 4:0PM (NZT)
The Euro has been slowly weakening over the past ten days, but any such moves have been completely overrun by the dramatic falls seen in the New Zealand dollar. The latest down leg came yesterday after the RBNZ rate statement. Although the RBNZ hiked by 0.25%, they also signalled a pause in the tightening cycle and took the opportunity to ‘jawbone’ the currency lower. The NZD traded sharply lower and has remained under pressure ever since. Any corrective NZD bounce in the pair will run into resistance around 0.6400 (support 1.5625) and this will likely cap NZD strength in the near term. For now the focus remains on the NZD downside and a test toward support around 0.6340 (up towards 1.5775). Next week from Europe we have inflation, unemployment and German retail sales data to digest. While from NZ the only data set for release is building consents.
The current interbank midrate is:    NZDEUR 0.6370    EURNZD 1.5699

The interbank range this week has been:    NZDEUR 0.6359 - 0.6466    EURNZD 1.5466- 1.5725
Tuesday 22th July 2:30PM (NZT)
Although the Euro has seen some pressure recently thanks to continued soft data and Portuguese banking concerns, it has none the less outperformed the New Zealand dollar. The local currency has seen a significant fall from recent highs thanks to weak dairy prices and softer than expected inflation. Minor support around 0.6400 (resistance around 1.5625) has so far contained the NZ dollar downside and it will take a move below there to confirm that a medium term top has been put in place. Until then we could easily see a recovery back up toward the recent highs at 0.6489 (1.5411). A sustained break below 0.6400 (above 1.5625) will target 0.6340 and then 0.6180 (1.5773 and then 1.6181). The key focus on the week comes from the RBNZ rate meeting on Thursday morning. This event could well dictate near term direction. From Europe we get manufacturing and service PMI’s along with German IFO business climate index.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
NZD/EURO 0.6420 0.6300 0.6500 0.6399 - 0.6479
EURO/NZD 1.5576 1.5385 1.5875 1.5435- 1.5627

Friday 18th July 4:0PM (NZT)
The Euro has been under some pressure this week as data continues to disappoint and concerns around Portuguese banks come to the forefront. But any Euro weakness was completely overrun by a plunge in the value of the New Zealand dollar since Tuesday’s dairy auction. The 8.9% fall in dairy prices was quickly followed by a softer than forecast NZ inflation figure and the NZD has been under pressure ever since. A move toward support at 0.6370 (resistance at 1.5700) looks likely over the coming days. We do however, have the RBNZ rate meeting to negotiate on Wednesday and this should prove very interesting. A rate hike is now a much closer call than it was just a few days ago and this event is the main focus for next week. From Europe we also get manufacturing and service PMI data along with the German IFO business climate survey to digest.
The current interbank midrate is:    NZDEUR .6413    EURNZD 1.5593

The interbank range this week has been:    NZDEUR .6399 - .6485    EURNZD 1.5420 - 1.5627
Tuesday 15th July 1:05PM (NZT)
The New Zealand dollar saw continued appreciation against the Euro last week although gains have stalled for now just shy of the 0.6490 level (1.5408). Some relative Euro strength in the past 24 hours has seen a small correction in the pair which now trades around 0.6465 (1.5468). The broader trend is certainly up for the NZD and while the pair holds above minor support around 0.6450 (resistance around 1.5504) further NZ dollar gains are the risk. We do however have some key data from NZ over the next 24 hours that could easily influence. Tonight we have another Global Dairy Trade Auction, and tomorrow we get NZ inflation data. The latter could easily impact expectations for next week’s RBNZ meeting and therefore have a material impact on the NZD. From Europe this week focus turns to a speech from ECB President Draghi tonight which will be followed by German economic sentiment data and inflation later in the week.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
NZD/EURO 0.6470 0.6300 0.6500 0.6424 - 0.6488
EURO/NZD 1.5456 1.5385 1.5875 1.5413- 1.5568

Friday 11th July 1:30PM (NZT)
The data from Europe this week has done nothing to alter the current economic assessment. The Eurozone economy remains on a very fragile and gradual recovery and monetary policy is going to remain extremely accommodative for many years to come. This outlook, and last month’s ECB easing, has keep the Euro very subdued, although it certainly isn’t as weak as many would have expected. The New Zealand dollar on the other hand has been a stand out performer recently and gains this week have seen the cross to the Euro climb above 0.6480 (below 1.5432). The NZD received a boost from Fitch ratings agency who upgraded NZ’s outlook to positive from stable and for the time being the risks for this pair remain to the topside. Next week from Europe we have German economic sentiment and inflation data to digest. While from NZ we also have inflation data which is the only major release ahead of July 24th’s RBNZ meeting.
The current interbank midrate is:    NZDEUR 0.6478    EURNZD 1.5437

The interbank range this week has been:    NZDEUR 0.6416 - 0.6488    EURNZD 1.5413- 1.5586
Tuesday 8th July 2:45PM (NZT)
The New Zealand dollar has seen grinding appreciation again the Euro over the course of the past week. Recent cycle highs at 0.6460 (lows of 1.5480) are in sight with the pair looking like it might attack that level overnight. However this morning’s release of NZ’s QSBO has taken some of the steam out of the NZD and as such this pair has drifted back to the more comfortable 0.6430 (1.5552) level. The fragile nature of the Eurozone recovery is keeping the Euro under a little pressure although we have failed to see the broad weakness the European Central bank would have wanted to see after last month's policy easing. 0.6350 (1.5748) marks the first level of downside support and while above there the risk remain skewed to further gains.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
NZD/EURO 0.6440 0.6300 0.6500 0.6389 - 0.6446
EURO/NZD 1.5528 1.5385 1.5875 1.5513- 1.5649

Friday 4th July 12:30PM (NZT)
A relatively strong New Zealand dollar has outperformed the Euro for much of this week and as such the pair is now trading back around 0.6430 after an early dip to 0.6390 on Monday. Declining business confidence and dairy prices haven’t had a big impact on the NZ this week, while continued soft data from Europe has kept pressure on the Euro to a degree. Last night’s ECB meeting also saw the Euro come under some selling pressure with president Draghi signalling QE (quantitative easing) is still on the table this year of the inflation picture warrants it. There is little from NZ next week to get excited about and to be fair European data is mostly a second tier affair as well. German trade balance, French industrial production, and the ECB monthly bulletin will draw some attention in an otherwise subdued week for economic data. The fragile Eurozone economy should continue to see the pair grind higher over the long run, in a continuation of the trend that has been seen for most of 2014.
The current interbank midrate is:    NZDEUR 0.6427    EURNZD 1.5559

The interbank range this week has been:    NZDEUR 0.6389 - 0.6458    EURNZD 1.5484- 1.5651
Tuesday 1st July 2:15PM (NZT)
The last week has been a game of two halves for this pair. The NZD saw the early appreciation as it ground up to set the highs for the week. However, the momentum was halted as the German inflation number printed above expectations. From there the EURO itself saw increased demand and forced the NZ dollar give up a portion of its recently gained ground. At current levels the pair is close to the middle of its recent trading range and direction is not clear. It will take a break of initial NZD support at .6350 (1.5750), in order to see further gains consolidated for the EURO. The ECB statement on Thursday remains the key to the near term direction.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
NZD/EURO .6402 .6300 .6500 .6368 - .6459
EURO/NZD 1.5620 1.5385 1.5875 1.5782 - 1.5705

Friday 27th June 2:00PM (NZT) - Update
This pair has seen periods of volatility this week. After an initial rally, the NZ dollar saw some material pressure from a resurgent EURO through out the belly of the week. However this all turned around late Wednesday, following the dismal US final GDP report. The subsequent push lower in global interest rates saw the high NZ yield back on the radar. Yield chasing investors increased demand for the NZ dollar and pushed through the resistance at .6420 (support 1.5575). Consolidation through this level opens the way for further investigation up towards .6500 (down to 1.5385). Needless to say the current levels offer great value buying of Euro with NZ dollars in the current environment.
The current interbank midrate is:    NZDEUR .6443    EURNZD 1.5520

The interbank range this week has been:    NZDEUR .6368 - .6455    EURNZD 1.5491 - 1.5705
Tuesday 24th June 2:43PM (NZT)
This pair has seen itself consolidate around the current levels over the last couple of weeks. The ECB induced pressure that drove the pair to these levels remains in play, and expect the pressure on the EURO to appropriately remain in place as the prospect of further policy accommodation continues. With little in the way of NZ economic news of impact this week, the near term focus comes from the German business climate numbers later on today, and then German inflation numbers Friday. Those looking to buy EUR at good value levels should see the opportunity continue for sometime yet.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
NZD/EURO .6406 .6220 .6420 .6376 - .6433
EURO/NZD 1.5610 1.5575 1.6075 1.5544 - 1.5683

Friday 20th June 2:00PM (NZT) - Update
This week has seen a very contained range for this pair. The momentum of EUR weakness has been contained and the pair will need further soft European news to see a break of the initial NZD resistance at .6430 (1.5550 support). Current levels look to offer good value buying of EUR with NZ dollars. Next week the influence should all come from news in Europe in the absence of top tier economic news in New Zealand . Expect the manufacturing numbers on Monday, business climate data Tuesday and inflation numbers Friday to dominate the focus.
The current interbank midrate is:    NZDEUR .6401    EURNZD 1.5623

The interbank range this week has been:    NZDEUR .6374 - .6429    EURNZD 1.5554 - 1.5688
Tuesday 17th June 3:43PM (NZT)
Following the ECB’s move to negative deposit rates the NZ dollar has seen grinding appreciation over the EUR. Last week’s hike to the NZ cash rate from the RBNZ further boosted demand for the NZD. The pair tested the resistance at .6420 (support 1.5575) within a couple of sessions of the RBNZ hike, and has had another go at the level without success at this point. With little chance of further action from the ECB for a few months at least, we may see this pair look to establish a new range around the current levels. This week’s primary focus will be the NZ Q1 GDP numbers on Thursday. A better than expected number could see a further test of the recent NZD highs.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
NZD/EURO .6386 .6220 .6420 .6250 - .6423
EURO/NZD 1.5659 1.5575 1.6075 1.5570 - 1.6000
 
Friday 13th June 2:00PM (NZT) - Update
This week has seen one way appreciation of the NZ dollar over the EUR. Last weeks ECB announcement of further policy accommodation paved the way for EUR underperformance. This coupled with the RBNZ steadfast approach in yesterdays monetary policy statement has seen further NZD demand. Employment and trade balance numbers round out the weeks focus in Europe later on today. Next weeks sees the initial focus come from the European inflation numbers, ahead of the Q1 NZ GDP numbers on Thursday. The pair is now at levels not seen since June last year, and its hard to see the NZ dollar coming under too much pressure from the EUR in the near term. Current levels and above offer excellent value buying of EUR..
The current interbank midrate is:    NZDEUR 0.6389    EURNZD 1.5651

The interbank range this week has been:    NZDEUR 0.6210 - 0.6423    EURNZD 1.5569- 1.6104
Tuesday 10th June 1:00PM (NZT)
Although last week’s ECB meeting provided some volatility, it has only had muted overall effect on the Euro. Gains in this pair over the past week have largely come on the back of New Zealand dollar strength as the local currency has staged something of a corrective bounce from recent lows. I suspect the effects of a negative deposit rate at the ECB will gradually weigh on the Euro and this should see the NZD grind higher over the medium term. Shorter term however, the risks are all centred around this week’s RBNZ monetary policy statement set for release on Thursday. If the central banks signals a pause after hiking on Thursday, and perhaps even a slightly lower path of future hikes, the NZD itself could drift lower. On the other hand a largely unchanged projection for hikes to 4.50%, or higher, could see a sharp appreciation in the currency. 0.6150 and 0.6350 (1.6260 and 1.5748) mark the key support and resistance levels heading into that announcement.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
NZD/EURO 0.6255 0.6150 0.6350 0.6171 - 0.6259
EURO/NZD 1.5987 1.5748 1.6260 1.5977- 1.6204

Friday 6th June 2:30PM (NZT) - Update
The New Zealand dollar saw further weakness in the first half of this week, weighed on by another fall in dairy prices. This drove the NZDEUR pair down to its 0.6171 low (1.6205 high) late on Wednesday. The Euro itself remained relatively subdued heading into last night key ECB rate meeting. We saw some good volatility around that announcement with the Euro falling sharply, then quickly recovering. At the end of the day the NZD has ended up close to where it started the week against the Euro and the focus now turns to next week’s RBNZ meeting. If the RBNZ don’t signal a pause after this next expected hike, the NZD could easily recover a lot more ground against the Euro. For the time being key NZD downside support comes in around 0.6150 (1.6260), although this hasn’t been tested since late April. Resistance toward 0.6350 (1.5748) should continue to cap any near term strength.
The current interbank midrate is:    NZDEUR 0.6216    EURNZD 1.6088

The interbank range this week has been:    NZDEUR 0.6171 - 0.6259    EURNZD 1.5977- 1.6204
Tuesday 3rd June 6:30PM (NZT)
Weakness in the New Zealand dollar has seen this pair trade down towards 0.6200 (1.6129) over the past few days. Declining dairy prices and a fall in NZ business confidence have done the damage, although the Euro itself has seen some pressure lately. This is on the back of expectations for action from the ECB at this week’s meeting. This is the event that will dictate near term direction for the pair and we can expect a limited trading range heading into that announcement on Thursday. If the market is disappointed with the easing measures announced by the ECB we could see the Euro again find support. At the other end of the scale the Euro is likely to come under heavy pressure if the central bank undertakes outright quantitative easing. It will certainly be a very interesting meeting.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
NZD/EURO 0.6220 0.6150 0.6350 0.6208 - 0.6285
EURO/NZD 1.6077 1.5748 1.6260 1.5911- 1.6109

Friday 30th May 2:00PM (NZT) - Update
The NZD has recently started to feel the weight of declining dairy prices and this week we also saw a substantial fall in business confidence. This saw the local currency come under significant pressure and as a result the cross to the EUR lost ground trading down to a low of 0.6212 (high of 1.6098) last night. Downside in the pair has however been limited by the lack of interest to buy Euro’s ahead of next week’s key ECB meeting. With some sort of easing action fully expected by the market the currencies reaction will depend on just how far the central bank goes and what combination of actions are undertaken. All in all it should be a very interesting week as we also have inflation, retail sales, and German factory orders to digest.
The current interbank midrate is:    NZDEUR 0.6242    EURNZD 1.6021

The interbank range this week has been:    NZDEUR 0.6212 - 0.6285    EURNZD 1.5911- 1.6099
Tuesday 27th May 2:30PM (NZT)
Like many currency pairs this cross has carved out a tight range since the middle of last week. Comments from ECB President Draghi in the last couple of days that quantitative easing (outright asset purchases) is a real possibility have yet to impact the market to a large degree, and this is likely due to the US and UK holidays yesterday. I would expect to see the Euro continue to remain under pressure with talk like this leading into the ECB meeting on June 6th. As such the cross to the NZD is likely to drift higher and unless we see a dramatic fall in the NZD, last week’s 0.6242 low (1.6021 high) might prove to be the bottom of the recent pullback. From NZ this week we have business confidence and building consents figures. While from Europe the highlights will be French consumer spending, German unemployment change, the money supply, and German retail sales.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
NZD/EURO 0.6272 0.6150 0.6350 0.6242 - 0.6298
EURO/NZD 1.5944 1.5748 1.6260 1.5879- 1.6021

Thursday 22nd May 3:30PM (NZT) - Update
A soft New Zealand dollar has been the main driver of this pair over the past week. The NZD came under pressure on the back of a further fall in dairy prices, and was helped lower by a very weak Australian dollar. This saw the pair trade down to 0.6242 (up to 1.6021) last night, although we have seen something of a recovery since then. The NZD could fall a bit further yet although I would expect a range of 0.6150 to 0.6350 (1.6260 to 1.5750) to contain trading heading into Junes ECB rate meeting. Price action after that will be determined by just what action the ECB undertake. Next week from NZ we get the trade balance, business confidence, and building consents data. While from Europe the highlights will be German consumer climate, unemployment and retail sales, along with French consumer spending and Eurozone money supply.
The current interbank midrate is:    NZDEUR 0.6277    EURNZD 1.5931

The interbank range this week has been:    NZDEUR 0.6242 - 0.6349    EURNZD 1.5751- 1.6021
Tuesday 20th May 3:00PM (NZT)
The Euro has remained under pressure since ECB president Draghi signalled the likelihood of further easing’s back on the 8th May. Weakness in the Euro helped to drive the cross to the New Zealand dollar up to last week’s 0.6349 high (1.5751 low). The sharp pullback from that high came as the NZD itself saw a period of pressure, however the pair has since stabilised just below 0.6300 (above 1.5873). A very quiet trading range has ensued since then and with little on the economic calendar this week from NZ, we could be in for more of the same. However, from Europe we do get manufacturing and service PMI’s along with the German business climate index. With some sort of easing action by the ECB next month now priced into the market, further gains in this pair will be harder fought. We could also easily see a pull back toward minor support around 0.6240 (resistance around 1.6026) without threatening the overall uptrend that has been in place for much of this year.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
NZD/EURO 0.6286 0.6150 0.6350 0.6263 - 0.6349
EURO/NZD 1.5908 1.5748 1.6260 1.5751- 1.5967

Friday 16th May 2:00PM (NZT) - Update
For most of the past week we have seen a gradual appreciation of the New Zealand dollar over the Euro. This move has been driven by some relative strength in the NZD, but also by weakness in the Euro that continues to suffer from increasing expectation of monetary policy easing by the ECB at next month’s meeting. Recent data has done nothing to counter that expectation and the question is not if, but what, action will be taken by the central bank in three weeks’ time. This outlook should keep the Euro under pressure in the near term. We did see a sharp retracement last night as weak stock markets caused some risk off type moves but the market has since stabilised. At this point NZD dips are a buying opportunity with the upside looking like the path of least resistance. There is little of interest from NZ next week so the focus will turn to European data in the form of manufacturing and service PMI’s and the German IFO business climate index.
The current interbank midrate is:    NZDEUR 0.6300    EURNZD 1.5873

The interbank range this week has been:    NZDEUR 0.6228 - 0.6349    EURNZD 1.5751- 1.6056
Tuesday 13th May 2:00PM (NZT)
This pair had a wild ride last week as both currencies saw periods of weakness. The New Zealand dollar was the first to come under pressure after Governor Wheeler’s talk of currency intervention. But when ECB President Draghi signalled the likelihood of further easing action by the European Central Bank at next month’s meeting, the Euro itself got sold heavily. These two events cause a significant trading range of 0.6182 - 0.6300 (1.5875 - 1.6175) on the week, however since then the market has almost ground to a halt at the 0.6265 (1.5960) level. We could be in for further action tomorrow however, with New Zealand retail sales and the RBNZ financial stability report set for release. A broadly weaker Euro should keep the NZD somewhat elevated heading into next month’s ECB meeting, although there is certainly potential for the NZD itself to come under further pressure. A range of 0.6150 to 0.6350 (1.5750 - 1.6260) is likely to define trading over the coming week.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
NZD/EURO 0.6268 0.6150 0.6350 0.6182 - 0.6300
EURO/NZD 1.5954 1.5748 1.6260 1.5874- 1.6177

Friday 9th May 2:00PM (NZT) - Update
Comments from central bankers have had a big impact on this pair over the course of the week. Early price action saw a strong New Zealand dollar driving the pair higher, but a combination of softer dairy prices and RBNZ Governor Wheelers comments regarding currency intervention cause a sharp turn around. We then saw the pair grinding lower on the back of NZD weakness. That was until last night when ECB President Draghi also stressed concerns over the level of the EUR and he gave the strongest signal yet the central bank will likely take action at next month’s meeting. The EUR immediately saw selling pressure and this caused the cross to the NZD to recover off its lows. Both currencies are likely to remain under pressure in the near term and this should cause a period of consolidation for the pair. Eventually though the increasingly positive interest rate differential in NZs favour should see this cross trade back up to 0.6300 (1.5875).
The current interbank midrate is:    NZDEUR 0.6238    EURNZD 1.6031

The interbank range this week has been:    NZDEUR 0.6182 - 0.6300    EURNZD 1.5874- 1.6177
Tuesday 6th May 2:00PM (NZT)
This time last week the NZDEUR cross traded down to 0.6142 (EURNZD up to 1.6281), before the NZD staged a strong bounce. The recovery was helped by supportive NZ data in the form of trade balance, building consents, and business confidence. While Eurozone releases have remained subdued at best. The NZD bounce from its low has turned into a relentless grind higher that shows no sign of abating yet. There are however, some key releases this week for the market to digest. From NZ we have employment data tomorrow and then on Thursday night the ECB hold their rate meeting. These two events could certainly add some volatility to the mix, although at this point the risks are still skewed to the NZ dollar topside.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
NZD/EURO 0.6261 0.6150 0.6350 0.6142 - 0.6265
EURO/NZD 1.5972 1.5748 1.6260 1.6282 - 1.5962

Friday 2nd May 3:00PM (NZT) - Update
The New Zealand dollar saw some early pressure from the Euro this week, however that quickly turned around as data from both countries hit the wires. A number of European releases came in on the soft side, most importantly inflation, while from NZ solid data on the trade balance and building consents underpinned the positive economic outlook. As a result this pair has staged a decent recovery off the 0.6142 low (1.6281 high) seen on Tuesday. Support is now seen around 0.6210 (resistance around 1.6103) and while above this the NZD upside remains the risk. Focus now turns to next week’s NZ employment data on Wednesday and the ECB policy meeting on Thursday.
The current interbank midrate is:    NZDEUR 0.6220    EURNZD 1.6077

The interbank range this week has been:    NZDEUR 0.6142 - 0.6231    EURNZD 1.6048 - 1.6282
Tuesday 29th April 3:30PM (NZT)
The New Zealand dollar has lost ground to the Euro trading down to its lowest level since mid-March in the last 24 hours. The latest move came as ECB President Draghi downplayed the risk of quantitative easing in the near term saying ‘QE is still a way off’. This saw demand for the Euro increase which is a trend that has been evident for much of the past week. The NZD itself has been under some pressure in the wake of the RBNZ most recent rate hike. The central bank suggested a strong NZD could impact future rate decisions and the market is now questioning whether or not we will get a pause after the next hike expected in June. The pair now trades just above minor support at 0.6150 (1.6260) and a move below there would target 0.6100 (1.6393) initially. Eurozone inflation and unemployment data will be a key focus this week along with German retail sales.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
NZD/EURO 0.6154 0.6150 0.6350 0.6154 - 0.6248
EURO/NZD 1.6250 1.5748 1.6260 1.6005 - 1.6250

Wednesday 23rd April 4:30PM (NZT) - Update
Some relative weakness in the New Zealand dollar over the past week saw this pair trade down just below 0.6200 (above 1.6129) early yesterday. That weakness was aided by softer than expected NZ inflation data last Wednesday and the key going forward is how that affects, if at all,  the RBNZ’s projected path of interest rate hikes. A 0.25% increase is all but assured tomorrow after the central banks meeting, and this is helping to stem the recent NZD weakness. But of interest will be the certainty to which the bank signals further hikes in June and July. Tonight we get manufacturing and service sector PMIs from the Eurozone which will be closely watched. While support around 0.6200 (resistance around 1.5873) contains the NZD downside, the outlook is for further ranging between there and 0.6300 on the topside (1.5873 on the downside).
The current interbank midrate is:    NZDEUR 0.6230    EURNZD 1.6051

The interbank range this week has been:    NZDEUR 0.6198 - 0.6250    EURNZD 1.5999 - 1.6134
Thursday 17th April 3:30PM (NZT) - Update
We have seen some choppy price action in this pair over the course of the past week. Overall however, the Euro has slightly outperformed, thanks in most part to a soft NZD. The NZD has been weighed on by a further decline in dairy prices and weaker than expected inflation data. The Euro itself has struggled to gain much support from data this week, and this is likely to continue in the near term. As such, I expect to see further ranging between 0.6200 and 6300 (1.6129 and 1.5873) into the early part of next week. Domestically the focus now turns to the RBNZ rate meeting next Thursday, while from Europe next week we get  manufacturing and service PMI’s from both France and Germany along with the German business climate index.
The current interbank midrate is:    NZDEUR 0.6238    EURNZD 1.6031

The interbank range this week has been:    NZDEUR 0.6203 - 0.6313    EURNZD 1.5841 - 1.6121
Tuesday 15th April 2:30PM (NZT)
It has been an interesting week for this pair with some volatile price action, although there is little overall direction. The biggest move came on Thursday evening after stock market concerns saw the NZD under pressure. This quickly drove the pair to its weeks low of 0.6211 (high of 1.6101), although since then we have seen a decent bounce. The recovery has been helped by ECB official ramping up talk of QE to counter Euro strength. This has seen the Euro under some pressure in the early stages of this week. We could easily continue to see volatile trading between initial resistance, now coming in at 0.6300 (support at 1.5873), and downside support at 0.6220 (resistance at 1.6077). A break of either of those levels would warn a broader directional move is unfolding. From New Zealand this week we have inflation data set for release on Wednesday. While from Europe we also get a reading of inflation along with German economic sentiment and the current account.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
NZD/EURO 0.6272 0.6200 0.6400 0.6211 - 0.6313
EURO/NZD 1.5944 1.5625 1.6129 1.5841 - 1.6101

Friday 11th April 3:30PM (NZT) - Update
A very strong New Zealand dollar saw this pair grind higher, albeit in choppy trade, for much of the past week. I could say that strong business confidence and manufacturing data from NZ underpinned those gains, but the reality is both Australasian currencies saw nothing but buying up until yesterday afternoon. It does now seem however that a top has been put in place, at least for the short term. Stock market nervousness overnight, and again today in Asia, has seen risk sentiment take a hit and this has weighed on the NZD. The cross is already nearly 100 points off its highs. If trend line support around 0.6210 (resistance 1.6103) is broken, we could easily see a deeper correction. Support around 0.6160 (resistance around 1.6234) would be the initial target for such a move. Next week from Europe we get industrial production, German economic sentiment, the trade balance, and CPI. While from NZ we also have inflation to data to draw focus.
The current interbank midrate is:    NZDEUR 0.6220    EURNZD 1.6077

The interbank range this week has been:    NZDEUR 0.6227 - 0.6313    EURNZD 1.5841 - 1.6059
Tuesday 8th April 1:30PM (NZT)
New Zealand dollar came under pressure in the middle of last week on the back of further declines in dairy prices. This drove the cross to the Euro to a low of 0.6180 (high of 1.6181), before a recovery ensued. That recovery was aided by NZD outperformance in the wake of Friday night’s US employment data. US yields declined as a result of that release and this saw higher yielding currencies, such as the NZD, make solid gains. A good chunk of last week’s losses have now been reversed and with continued speculation around potential quantitative easing by the ECB, further NZD upside remains the risk. Key downside support now comes in around 0.6200 (resistance around 1.6129) and as long as the market holds above there, further gains are favoured. This week’s mostly second tier data in the form of German trade balance, French industrial production, and NZ manufacturing index should have little impact.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
NZD/EURO 0.6266 0.6200 0.6400 0.6180 - 0.6307
EURO/NZD 1.5959 1.5625 1.6129 1.5856 - 1.6180

Friday 4th April 1:30PM (NZT) - Update
Up until last night, the main driver of this pair on the week had been a declining New Zealand dollar. This was triggered by news of an 8% decline in dairy prices at Fonterra’s regular auction. The NZD came under pressure across the board and gave back some of the gains made over the previous four weeks. The cross to the Euro was trading back down below 0.6200 (above 1.6129) leading into last night’s European Central Bank (ECB) meeting. Although the ECB took no further action, the revelation by President Draghi that quantitative easing (QE) was discussed in depth saw the Euro come under pressure. Germany has been dead against QE in the past and it seems now they are accepting it may well be needed if inflation falls further. The prospect of this should keep a lid on Euro strength in the near term. Further weakness in the NZD could still drive the cross lower yet, although I suspect support around 0.6150 (resistance around 1.6260) should contain it for now. Next week’s German trade balance and French industrial production will be the highlights from Europe. While from NZ the focus turns to business confidence and the manufacturing index.
The current interbank midrate is:    NZDEUR 0.6233    EURNZD 1.6044

The interbank range this week has been:    NZDEUR 0.6180 - 0.6341    EURNZD 1.5770 - 1.6180
Tuesday 1st April 1:30PM (NZT)
A strong move higher in the New Zealand dollar last week helped this pair trade up to levels not seen since May last year. The high of 0.6341 (low of 1.5770) traded late in the week as the Euro came under pressure from further soft data. A corrective pullback from those highs saw the pair trade down to 0.6264 (up to 1.5964), but last night’s release of soft inflation data from the Eurozone has again seen the Euro weaken and the cross to the NZD recover back towards 0.6300 (1.5873). While the pair holds above support at 0.6240 (below resistance at 1.6026) the risks are still skewed to the topside and the focus now turns to Thursday’s ECB rate meeting. There aren’t many forecasters expecting action at this meeting, although it’s certainly not out of the question. The ECB would also be happy to see the currency weaken and President Draghi may well try to talk it down to a degree.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
NZD/EURO 0.6300 0.6150 0.6350 0.6172 - 0.6341
EURO/NZD 1.5873 1.5748 1.6260 1.5770 - 1.6202

Friday 28th March 12:30PM (NZT) - Update
After a quiet start to the week this pair took off on Wednesday and never looked back. The move was driven by a combination of factors. Euro weakness was certainly part of it, as soft data and ‘dovish’ comments from ECB officials weighed on the currency. However, a large part of the move in the past 24 hours has come on the back of a very strong NZD. The local currency had been supported by a very strong Australian dollar this week, but NZD strength took on a life of its own yesterday aided by stop loss buying from hedge funds. This saw the cross to the EUR power on up over 0.6300 (under 1.5873) which is the highest level traded since May last year. This is a very powerful move and there is nothing to be gained from trying to call a top. Further gains should however, be much harder fought as the NZD is now at record highs on a trade weighted basis. Next week from Europe we have the ECB meeting to digest along with inflation, retail sales, GDP, and unemployment. From NZ we get nationwide building consent figures along with a reading on business confidence.
The current interbank midrate is:    NZDEUR 0.6308    EURNZD 1.5853

The interbank range this week has been:    NZDEUR 0.6163 - 0.6317    EURNZD 1.5831 - 1.6225
Tuesday 25th March 2:00PM (NZT)
Gains for the NZD in this pair have stalled over the past week, capped by resistance around 0.6210 (support around 1.6103). This has left the cross trading in range between there and 0.6160 (1.6234) on the NZD downside. Recent releases from Europe have been somewhat supportive of the gradual recovery and this is helping to limit further appreciation for the NZD. We could well see further range trading in the near term with the immediate focus turning to tomorrow’s trade balance data from NZ. This is followed by the German business climate index tomorrow night and consumer climate index the night after. Any break below support at 0.6160 (above 1.6234) would be a negative signal for the NZD, and warn a deeper correction is underway that would likely test 0.6100 (1.6393) initially.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
NZD/EURO 0.6180 0.6000 0.6200 0.6135 - 0.6215
EURO/NZD 1.6181 1.6129 1.6667 1.6090 - 1.6300

Friday 21st March 2:00PM (NZT) - Update
The New Zealand dollar has continued to appreciate against the Euro this week and is now approaching key resistance just above 0.6200 ( just below 1.6129). Increasing risk sentiment has helped the NZD along with news that it can now be directly converted into CNY (Chinese Yuan). The Euro itself has been under the gun somewhat this week weighed on by soft data in the form a downward revision to inflation, and much weaker than expected economic sentiment numbers. In the past month this pair has rallied from 0.6000 to 0.6200 (1.6667 to 1.6129), but there is plenty of resistance around 0.6230 (support around 1.6051) which has capped the NZD ever since it broke down below that level in May last year. I would expect to continue to see this level provide a big barrier to further gains. The likely scenario is that we will see a NZD correction lower at some point over the coming week. However, that outlook would change should we see a solid move up through 0.6230 (down through 1.6051). With little data from NZ next week the focus will turn to Europe and the release of manufacturing and service PMI data, German business climate and German retail sales.
The current interbank midrate is:    NZDEUR 0.6190    EURNZD 1.6155

The interbank range this week has been:    NZDEUR 0.6129 - 0.6215    EURNZD 1.6090 - 1.6316
Tuesday 18th March 3:30PM (NZT)
The past week’s price action has been dominated by NZD gains made last Thursday after the RBNZ rate hike. Further topside pressure was seen a few hours later after Australian employment data surprised on the strong side. This helped to drag the New Zealand dollar up towards 0.6160 (down towards 1.6234), near where it currently trades. The highs for the pair traded last night after tensions in the Ukraine eased following a peaceful referendum. This saw a return of risk appetite which supported the NZD. The Euro was also weighed on by last night’s downward revision to inflation data. While the immediate focus remains on the NZD topside and a potential test of 0.6200 (1.6129), we should be mindful of the fact the NZD is at very elevated levels on a number of crosses. This will make further gains much harder fought and increases the potential for a sharp turnaround. In focus this week will be NZ GDP data on Thursday, while from Europe we get German economic sentiment, the current account, and consumer confidence.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
NZD/EURO 0.6145 0.6000 0.6200 0.6079 - 0.6178
EURO/NZD 1.6273 1.6129 1.6667 1.6186 - 1.6449

Thursday 13th March 1:00PM (NZT) - Update
This pair has seen little overall direction so far this week. Today’s RBNZ monetary policy statement has pushed the NZD up to its highs of the week, but as yet has not broken new ground. These current levels should prove to have offered good value buying of Euro overtime, albeit any material weakness in the NZD unlikely in the short term at least. The ECB monthly report offer further focus this week. Next week sees the European inflation number on Monday provide the initial lead. Thursday heralds the Q4 NZ GDP number and this is followed by the latest manufacturing and services numbers in Europe, ahead of Friday’s consumer confidence data.
The current interbank midrate is:    NZDEUR 0.6127    EURNZD 1.6321

The interbank range this week has been:    NZDEUR 0.6079 - 0.6135    EURNZD 1.6300 - 1.6449
Tuesday 11th March 3:00PM (NZT)
It really has been a week of two halves for this pair. Up until Thursday evening it was all about New Zealand dollar strength. The local currency benefited from reduced tension in the Ukraine and better than expected Australian data, which caused the AUD to surge higher taking the NZD with it. But Thursday’s ‘no change’ decision from the ECB saw demand for the Euro increase dramatically, and this caused a sharp turnaround in the cross. The focus now turns to the RBNZ’s rate decision on Thursday. A rate hike is fully factored into the market and there must be the risk of profit taking in the NZD should that event not produce any surprises. Resistance around 0.6150 (support around 1.6260) is likely to continue to cap any potential  NZD gains in the pair this week. From Europe this week we only have German trade balance, Euro-area industrial production, and the ECB monthly bulletin of any note.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
NZD/EURO 0.6108 0.5950 0.6150 0.6083 - 0.6170
EURO/NZD 1.6372 1.6260 1.6807 1.6207 - 1.6439

Thursday 6th March 8:30PM (NZT) - Update
This NZD opened the week on the back foot after tensions in the Ukraine escalated over the weekend. This caused some ‘risk off’ selling of the New Zealand dollar and drove the cross down to 0.6056 (up to 1.6513). As the week has progressed however, tensions have subsided and the NZD has managed a recovery. This has seen the pair back up towards 0.6140 (down towards 1.6287). There has been little in the way of data from New Zealand, while European releases have generally been coming in a touch better than expected. The Euro hasn’t benefited much from these results as the market is awaiting the all-important central bank rate decision tonight. This will be key in determining near term direction for the pair. Current levels look to offer good value buying of EUR with NZ dollars in our view, but we can expect the NZD to remain supported into the RBNZ announcement next week.
The current interbank midrate is:    NZDEUR 0.6135    EURNZD 1.6300

The interbank range this week has been:    NZDEUR 0.6056 - 0.6138    EURNZD 1.6292 - 1.6513
Tuesday 4th March 2:00PM (NZT)
After a very quiet start to last week this pair headed higher on Thursday as the NZD benefited from a number of positive releases. Fonterra increased their forecast pay-out for the current season, migration data was strong, and business confidence has sky rocketed. This caused a material outperformance for the NZD in the closing stages of the week. However, all that work was undone in early Monday morning trade after escalating tensions in the Ukraine over the weekend cased a small ‘risk off’ move. The focus now turns to the European central banks rate meeting on Thursday. Chances of a rate cut have diminished after Friday’s slightly better than expected inflation data for the Euro-area, although nothing is completely off the table. Ahead of the ECB meeting we have services PMI, retail sales, revised GDP, and German factory orders data to digest. The NZD topside should continue to struggle on attempts toward resistance around 0.6150 (support 1.6260).
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
NZD/EURO 0.6088 0.5950 0.6150 0.6049 - 0.6141
EURO/NZD 1.6426 1.6260 1.6807 1.6284 - 1.6532

Friday 28th February 3:00PM (NZT) - Update
Data from Europe this week has failed to positively impact economic expectations to any real degree. The key data point for the week could well be Euro area inflation numbers set for release tonight. German inflation was out last night and it showed consumer prices have moderated a touch in that country. If that proves to be the case for the broader Euro area,  expectations for action from the ECB next week will be raised dramatically. This has kept the Euro very subdued throughout the week. The New Zealand dollar however, has benefited from a number of positive releases. Fonterra’s announcement that it has raised its forecast payout to farmers has combined with supportive migration and trade balance data to see the NZD perform strongly. The pair now trades back above 0.6100 (below 1.6393) and the risks are still skewed to the NZD topside. There is minor resistance around 0.6150 (support around 1.6260) ahead of the bigger level of 0.6230 (1.6051) . With little from NZ next week all the focus will be on Euro area data and the ECB decision on Thursday.
The current interbank midrate is:    NZDEUR 0.6124    EURNZD 1.6329

The interbank range this week has been:    NZDEUR 0.6015 - 0.6128    EURNZD 1.6319 - 1.6625
Tuesday 25th February 3:00PM (NZT)
After trading lower in the early stages of last week, this pair now finds itself range bound between 0.6000 and 0.6070 (1.6667 and 1.6474). We could see some further strength towards 0.6100 (weakness toward 1.6393), but resistance around that level should cap the NZD topside in the near term. There has been little in the way of fundamental news to drive the New Zealand dollar since last week’s poor Chinese manufacturing data drove the pair its lows around 0.6000 (highs around 1.6667). European data has been less than inspiring, although last night’s German IFO business climate did show some strength. This had little impact on the pair that has seen a bout of strength in the last 24 hours thanks largely to some relative outperformance from Australasian currencies. NZ dollar gains from the current level of 0.6065 (1.6488) will be much harder to come by and the likely scenario is for a pull back toward 0.6000 (1.6667) in the near term. The key focus data wise for the week will be on the flash reading of European inflation set for release on Friday. This will be crucial in influencing any potential action from the ECB when they meet next week.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
NZD/EURO 0.6072 0.5950 0.6150 0.5998 - 0.6117
EURO/NZD 1.6469 1.6260 1.6807 1.6348 - 1.6672

Friday 21st February 1:30PM (NZT) - Update
Price action in the NZDEUR this week has been largely driven by movements in the New Zealand dollar. As the NZD softened throughout the week, trading to its lows yesterday, so did the cross to the Euro. Those lows traded in the wake of poor Chinese manufacturing data, but since then we have seen something of a recovery. European data has been less than inspiring lately and this should keep the downside of the pair limited to support around the 0.5950 (1.6807) level. Initial resistance on the topside comes in at 0.6150 (1.6260) and those two levels look likely to contain price action over the coming week. European inflation data will be very closely watched next week with any further weakness likely to elicit a response from the ECB and their next meeting.
The current interbank midrate is:    NZDEUR 0.6052    EURNZD 1.6523

The interbank range this week has been:    NZDEUR 0.5998 - 0.6117    EURNZD 1.6348 - 1.6672
Tuesday 18th February 3:00PM (NZT)
The New Zealand dollar appreciated against the EUR in the first half of last week helped by comments from an ECB official who stated the central bank was looking ‘very closely’ as negative interest rates. His comments were later tempered somewhat, and this saw the pair retrace some if its gains. Since then there has been little overall direction. Friday nights better than expected GDP results only had a limited impact and the cross has maintained a tight range around 0.6100 (1.6393). Initial resistance around 0.6150 (support around 1.6260) continues to cap the NZD topside and in the event that is overcome there is a stronger barrier just above 0.6200 (below 1.6129). Selling into strength is recommended with a good chance of another test toward 0.6000 (1.6667) over the coming weeks.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
NZD/EURO 0.6100 0.5950 0.6150 0.6052 - 0.6150
EURO/NZD 1.6393 1.6260 1.6807 1.6260 - 1.6523

Friday 14th February 1:30PM (NZT) - Update
The New Zealand dollar made gains against the Euro in the first half of the week, helped by a stronger Australian dollar in the wake of their solid business confidence data. Further gains we seen when the Euro came under pressure thanks to comments from ECB’s Corure. He said the central bank was looking very closely indeed at a move to negative interest rates. Those comments have been tempered in the past 48 hours and this has seen the pair pull back from its highs. Initial resistance at 0.6150 (support 1.6260) should continue to provide a tough barrier on the NZD topside in the near term. If the market does manage to overcome it, there is further strong resistance between 0.6220 and 0.6240 (support 1.6077 and 1.6026). I would expect this to cap any near term strength.
The current interbank midrate is:    NZDEUR 0.6105    EURNZD 1.6380

The interbank range this week has been:    NZDEUR 0.6052 - 0.6150   EURNZD 1.6260 - 1.6523
Tuesday 11th February 3:00PM (NZT)
This pair put in a strong recovery in the early stages of last week helped, by better than expected NZ employment data and reduced emerging market concerns. Since then however, the pair has been largely range bound with trading contained between 0.6040 and 0.6110 (1.6556 - 1.6367). There was some volatility around the ECB’s rate decision, but this didn’t result in any overall direction for the pair. Resistance around 0.6100 (support 1.6395) should continue to provide a formidable topside barrier in the near term. We get Eurozone industrial production data tonight and tomorrow is the ECB’s monthly bulletin. That is followed by Euro GDP data on Friday.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
NZD/EURO 0.6065 0.5900 0.6100 0.5957 - 0.6111
EURO/NZD 1.6488 1.6393 1.6949 1.6364 - 1.6788

Friday 7th February 3:30PM (NZT) - Update
It has been another week of choppy price action for this pair. After seeing initial pressure from the EUR to start the week, the NZD saw resurgent demand as the three pronged boost of a neutral RBA, lower risk aversion in the wider market, and decent NZD employment numbers came to light. Once the NZD resurgence was stemmed around the .6100 (1.6400) level, there was a patch of orderly sideways movement ahead of last night’s ECB monetary policy decision. No action from the ECB saw the EUR immediately jump higher, albeit a large portion of its gains were not maintained. So the pair again finds itself towards the upper NZD end of its comfortable range that offers reasonably good value buying of EUR with NZD. With only second tier economic data due next week in New Zealand the lead will likely come from the wider market risk appetite and the European data flow. Of primary focus will be European industrial production numbers on Wednesday and the preliminary 4th QTR GDP number on Friday.
The current interbank midrate is:    NZDEUR 0.6052    EURNZD 1.6523

The interbank range this week has been:    NZDEUR 0.5957 - 0.6111    EURNZD 1.6364 - 1.6788
Tuesday 4th February 3:00PM (NZT)
Last week’s decision by the RBNZ to hold off hiking interest rates until (most likely) March has weighed on the NZD and many of its crosses. Against the EUR this caused the cross to trade down to 0.5971 (up to 1.6748) and since then the pair has ranged between there and 0.6030 (1.6584). Currently the market is back down toward recent lows thanks in large part to better than expected data out of Europe over night. We could see some further weakness down to support around 0.5900, however I would view any such move a good buying opportunity. Europe has many hurdles to overcome this year and there is a good chance we will get further action from the ECB to deal with the threat of deflation. They meet this week on Thursday and it will be very interesting to see what President Draghi has to say. Ahead of that we have NZ employment data tomorrow to digest.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
NZD/EURO 0.5965 0.5900 0.6100 0.5971 - 0.6087
EURO/NZD 1.6764 1.6393 1.6949 1.6427 - 1.6748

Friday 31st January 4:00PM (NZT) - Update
The NZD pressure saw from the EUR late last week has continued into this week, albeit with easing momentum. The NZD had actually made some gains over the EUR ahead of the RBNZ meeting, but the unchanged decision reversed those gains in the offshore session overnight. The EUR will have to push the NZD to consolidate through the .6000 level (1.6130) in order to open up the way for further gains. However, in the current back drop that maybe a step too far. Underpinning the NZD should be the fact that the RBNZ look poised to increase the cash rate in six weeks time. Add that to the backdrop of deflationary worries and the Greek funding issues in Europe, and its easy to see why EUR selling vs buying NZD has emerged this morning. Assuming the emerging market fears do not escalate further, expect the .6000/.6200 (1.6130/1.6670) range to remain in place in the short term.

The current interbank midrate is:    NZDEUR 0.6020    EURNZD 1.6611

The interbank range this week has been:    NZDEUR 0.5978 - 0.6087   EURNZD 1.6427 - 1.6726
Tuesday 28th January 4:30PM (NZT)
This pair came under pressure in the second half of last week as improving data out of Europe supported the Euro and emerging market concerns weighed on the New Zealand dollar. Better than expected manufacturing and service data from the Eurozone will be a welcome sight for the ECB as will the increase seen in last night’s German business climate index. Europe however has a long way to go and this week’s readings on inflation and unemployment are likely to highlight that. Domestically the focus turns to the RBNZ rate statement on Thursday morning. Although March is favoured for the start of the impending tightening cycles, there is a very real risk the bank could pull the trigger this week. Following the RBNZ meeting we have building consent and trade balance data, along with a speech from Governor Wheeler on Friday. Support around 0.6000 (resistance around 1.6667) has contained the downside for now and this should continue to be the case heading into Thursday's announcement.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
NZD/EURO 0.6045 0.6000 0.6200 0.5992 - 0.6156
EURO/NZD 1.6543 1.6129 1.6667 1.6244 - 1.6689

Friday 24th January 2:00PM (NZT) - Update
Gains in the early part of the week for this pair came on the back of slightly stronger than expected NZ inflation data. This saw the pair rally up towards 0.6160 (down towards 1.6234), but there was little in the way of follow through buying. The NZD then slowly started to drift back down and this move gained momentum as Europe itself saw some better than expected data releases. These caused a material increase in demand for the EUR and came at the same time the New Zealand dollar started to come under pressure from some emerging market concerns. As a result of those dual drives, the NZD has lost a lot of ground in the last 24 hours. Support towards 0.6000 (resistance towards 1.6667) could be tested in the coming days, however a break below there is probably unlikely ahead of the RBNZ rate statement on Thursday. That event provides the domestic focus for next week. From the Eurozone next week we mainly have German data to focus on. The highlights of which will be German retail sales and business climate index.
The current interbank midrate is:    NZDEUR 0.6047    EURNZD 1.6537

The interbank range this week has been:    NZDEUR 0.6047 - 0.6156   EURNZD 1.6244 - 1.6537
Tuesday 21st January 3:00PM (NZT)
The New Zealand dollar has been gradually appreciating against the Euro since the beginning of the year. Data out of Europe is lacklustre at best while NZ releases continue to surprise on the strong side. After trading up to 0.6161 (down to 1.6231) early last week this pair turned around and proceeded to drift lower in what looks very much like a corrective pullback. There were no fundamental drivers for the correction and it seems the market was just waiting for the opportunity to buy the NZD again. All it took was some slightly stronger than expected inflation numbers released in the last few hours and the NZD was back in hot demand. Further gains a likely as the NZD should remain well supported heading into next week’s RBNZ interest rate meeting. Ahead of that we have the NZ manufacturing index on Thursday. From Europe tonight we German economic sentiment figures. These are followed later in the week by manufacturing and service PMI’s and the current account balance.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
NZD/EURO 0.6152 0.6000 0.6200 0.6062 - 0.6161
EURO/NZD 1.6255 1.6129 1.6667 1.6231 - 1.6496

Friday 17th January 2:00PM (NZT) - Update
The New Zealand dollar made solid gains against the Euro in the early stages of the week, helped by business confidence data printing at a 20 year high. That helped drive the cross to its high of 0.6161 (low 1.6231), but since then overall direction has been lacking with the cross ranging between there and 0.6100 (1.6393). While 0.6100 (1.6393) contains any NZD weakness, there is potential for a move up towards 0.6200 (down towards 1.6129) and this is the favoured scenario. Any sustained break below 0.6100 (above 1.6393) would likely turn the focus back to the downside. In NZ next week the focus will turn to inflation on Tuesday and the business NZ manufacturing index on Thursday. While from Europe we have figures on economic sentiment, French and German manufacturing, and the current account to digest.
The current interbank midrate is:    NZDEUR 0.6133    EURNZD 1.6305

The interbank range this week has been:    NZDEUR 0.6062 - 0.6161   EURNZD 1.6231 - 1.6496
Tuesday 14th January 3:30PM (NZT)
Recent price action in this pair has been dominated by New Zealand dollar outperformance in the wake of the soft US employment data released on Friday evening. As the USD got sold across the board after that data the Euro gained, but to nowhere near the same extent as the NZD, which had actually been drifting lower in the lead up to the release. As a result the pair has snapped higher from levels below 0.6040 (1.6556) to a high of 0.6140 (1.6287) last night. Today’s NZ business confidence data has helped to maintain the positive tone for the pair. With resistance around 0.6100 (support 1.6393) now out of the way the focus turns to the next key level 0.6220 (1.6077). There is little other domestic data from NZ to dive the pair in the near term. However, from Europe we have industrial production, trade balance, the second reading of inflation, and the ECB monthly bulletin.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
NZD/EURO 0.6120 0.6000 0.6200 0.6034 - 0.6140
EURO/NZD 1.6340 1.6129 1.6667 1.6287 - 1.6573

Friday 10th January 3:00PM (NZT) - Update
For much of this week the New Zealand dollar has traded in a tight range against the Euro with no overall direction. In the past 24 hours some relative weakness in the NZD has seen the downside pressured although there is little in the way of momentum. The ECB rate decision last night caused some volatility with the Euro initially coming under some pressure, but this was relatively short lived. Looking at the bigger picture it seems NZD resistance around 0.6100 (1.6393) will continue to cap any potential NZD strength in the near term. The risk is that the pair will continue to drift lower retracting the sharp move high we saw late last Friday. US employment data tonight could certainly throw a spanner in the works, but barring a big surprise there, the cross may well look to test minor support around 0.6000 (1.6667). From NZ next week we have the NZIER business confidence survey and the house price index set for release. From Europe there is a much lighter economic calendar with the highlights being industrial production, inflation and the ECB monthly bulletin.
The current interbank midrate is:    NZDEUR 0.6058    EURNZD 1.6507

The interbank range this week has been:   NZDEUR 0.6053 - 0.6112    EURNZD 1.6361 - 1.6521
Tuesday 7th January 2:30PM (NZT)
In the early part of the holiday period the New Zealand dollar lost ground to the Euro trading down to a low of 0.5884 (high of 1.6995) on December 27th. But since that low the cross has steadily gained ground as the NZD out performed across the board. The latest gains came on Friday last week as a short squeeze in the NZD was exaggerated by thin liquidity due to the time of year. This saw the cross to the EUR trade all the way up to just over 0.6100 (down to lows of 1.6393). Most of those NZD gains have been maintained so far this week, however further upside action will prove a lot more difficult from here. There is plenty of resistance around 0.6100 (support 1.6393) and this should continue to cap the NZ dollar topside for now. Any sustained move above there would be a positive signal, but the likely scenario is that the pair eventually drifts back down toward 0.6000 (up to 1.6667). With little in the way of economic data out of NZ this week, the focus will turn to the key European releases of inflation data tonight, and the ECB rate meeting on Thursday evening.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
NZD/EURO 0.6072 0.5900 0.6100 0.5942 - 0.6108
EURO/NZD 1.6469 1.6393 1.6949 1.6372 - 1.6829

Friday 20th December 1:30PM (NZT) - Update
The price action has been relatively contained so far this week for this pair. The extreme occurred around the FED monetary policy announcement and outside that crazy hour or so, the ranges have been orderly to say the least. This is interesting given the materially strong NZ economic news, that was balanced by the negative impact on the NZD from the Fed’s decision to taper their QE program. Direction from the current levels is far from clear, and lends support for further range trading. Some of the direction will likely come from the performance of the AUD. If further softness in the AUD is forthcoming, the NZD demand will be negatively affected overtime. This, along with the Fed tapering of QE is balanced by the robust outlook for the NZ economy.
The current interbank midrate is:    NZDEUR 0.5998    EURNZD 1.6672

The interbank range this week has been:    NZDEUR 0.5948 - 0.6037   EURNZD 1.6563 - 1.6812
Tuesday 17th December 2:00PM (NZT)
This pair has seen a choppy week, but there has been little overall direction. There have been periods where the New Zealand dollar has been under pressure from the Euro, but the cross has continually rebounded back to the 0.6000 (1.6667) level where it feels comfortable. Data from Europe has left a lot to be desired, but as usual the EUR has paid little attention to releases and continues to outperform many negative forecasts. This week from NZ we have GDP and business confidence data to digest, but the biggest risks are around the Fed’s Thursday morning announcement on tapering. This release could provide plenty of volatility across all markets.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
NZD/EURO 0.6018 0.5900 0.6100 0.5953 - 0.6052
EURO/NZD 1.6617 1.6393 1.6949 1.6523 - 1.6798

Friday 13th December 2:30PM (NZT) - Update
The New Zealand dollar has been under pressure from the Euro for much of the past week. The one period of strength for the pair came in the wake of the RBNZ monetary policy statement. The RBNZ paid little attention to the relatively high currency in the release, and have revised up their projected path for interest rates. This saw demand for the NZD increase materially yesterday morning, but much of the move was reversed in the overnight session. The EUR continues to surprise many with its relative strength especially in light of some very average data coming from the region. To that extent next week, we get manufacturing and service PMI’s, the trade balance, German economic sentiment and German business climate. From NZ we have consumer sentiment, the current account, business confidence, and GDP data.
The current interbank midrate is:    NZDEUR 0.5990    EURNZD 1.6694

The interbank range this week has been:    NZDEUR 0.5953 - 0.6079    EURNZD 1.6450 - 1.6798
Tuesday 10th December 2:00PM (NZT)
You could write a long list of reasons to sell the Euro and many in the market have done exactly that. But the currencies performance for much of the past few months seems to have ignored fundamentals and continues to surprise. This pair currently trades close to where it started last week, although there have been some choppy moves in between. The NZD downside was tested after the ECB projected a somewhat ‘neutral tone’ at last week’s rate meeting, and then again in the wake of the US employment report on Friday. In the volatile trade after that release, the NZD materially outperformed the Euro, but in the last 24 hours a good chunk of those gains have been reversed. The pair looks comfortable trading above 0.6000 (below 1.6667) and current levels will likely be maintained heading into Thursday’s RBNZ monetary policy statement. That could be the key driver on the week, although from Europe we do have industrial production, the ECB monthly report, and couple of speeches from President Draghi himself to draw focus.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
NZD/EURO 0.6022 0.5900 0.6100 0.5972 - 0.6079
EURO/NZD 1.6606 1.6393 1.6949 1.6450 - 1.6745

Friday 6th December 3:00PM (NZT) - Update
This pair started the week on a positive note as strong terms of trade data from New Zealand help boost the local currency. The cross traded up to 0.6079 (down to 1.6450), before the NZD was weighed on by soft Australian GDP on Wednesday. That data saw the AUD lose a lot of ground and this eventually pulled the NZD lower as well. The pair stabilised above 0.6020 (below 1.6611) until last night, when the surprisingly neutral tone of the ECB rate statement caused a material increase in demand for Euro’s. That surge in Euro demand saw the cross to trade down to 0.5980 (up to 1.6723), although it has since recovered much of the lost ground. The risks are skewed to the downside and an eventual retest of last weeks lows near 0.5940 (high near 1.6835). The focus next week will be on the RBNZ’s monetary policy statement and any hints to the timing of a rate hike. Next week from Europe there is a lot of second tier data with the highlights being German trade balance and Eurozone industrial production.
The current interbank midrate is:    NZDEUR 0.6012    EURNZD 1.6633

The interbank range this week has been:    NZDEUR 0.5980 - 0.6079    EURNZD 1.6450 - 1.6722
Tuesday 3rd December 2:30PM (NZT)
For much of last week the New Zealand dollar lost ground to the Euro, as broader market moves saw the NZD under some pressure. This relative weakness came despite solid data from NZ and continued lacklustre results from Europe. The pair did eventually find support on Friday around 0.5940 (resistance 1.6835) and a small recover ensued. The turnaround was triggered by poor readings from German retail sales and French consumer spending, that both helped to put the Euro under some pressure. Over the weekend we had some improving Chinese manufacturing data and this helped to support the NZD early on Monday. We then got very good number for NZ terms of trade and the upside price action continued. The NZDEUR has now recovered to 0.6050 (1.6529) and we could easily see a move toward 0.6100 (1.6393) . However, resistance around there will likely cap any further NZ dollar strength for now. With little in the way of NZ domestic data out over the coming days, the focus will turn to the ECB rate decision and statement on Thursday. Ahead of that we have the European service sector PMI and retail sales data to digest.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
NZD/EURO 0.6055 0.5900 0.6100 0.5938 - 0.6104
EURO/NZD 1.6515 1.6393 1.6949 1.6383 - 1.6841

Friday 29th November 3:30PM (NZT)
Like most New Zealand dollar crosses this pair has seen the NZD lose ground this week and currently sits near recent NZD lows. Decent data from NZ has had little impact on the currency that has been weighed down by a weak AUD and softer Asian currencies in general. There has been little in the way of inspiring data out of Europe either and this would suggest the pair should find some support soon. There is a minor level around 0.5950 (1.6807) and this may just be enough to arrest the NZD downside for now. The driving force for next week will likely come from offshore as the only NZ data is the overseas trade index on Monday. While from Europe we have retails sales data and the revised GDP figures as well as the ECB policy meeting to digest.
The current interbank midrate is:    NZDEUR 0.5945    EURNZD 1.6821

The interbank range this week has been:    NZDEUR 0.5940 - 0.6104   EURNZD 1.6383 - 1.6835
Tuesday 26th November 4:30PM (NZT)
Last week saw the Euro outperform the New Zealand dollar in the wake of the Fed minutes. This caused the cross to fall from just below 0.6200 (1.6129) all the way to 0.6012 (1.6633) heading into the weekend. Continued talk of the potential for move to negative interest rates by the ECB isn’t helping the EUR, but weakness in the NZD was the overriding factor in the fall of the last five days. We have seen decent recovery so far with the pair bouncing back toward 0.6100 (falling to support 1.6393), but further gains from here should prove tougher going. Over all we can expect continued ranging trading between 0.6000 and 0.6200 (1.6667 and 1.6129) for the rest of this week. This week from NZ we have trade balance data, business confidence, and building consents to draw focus. While from Europe there is a raft of second tier data set for release.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
NZD/EURO 0.6080 0.5980 0.6180 0.6012 - 0.6184
EURO/NZD 1.6447 1.6181 1.6722 1.6171 - 1.6633

Friday 22nd November 2:30PM (NZT)
It has been another interesting week for this pair. The pair has continued to trade within the increasingly familiar .6050 - .6250 (1.6000 - 1.6530) range. The main move on the week has been in the offshore session overnight. This move followed the comments from ECB President Draghi, with regards to discounting the chances of a move to negative deposit rates. So the current rates remain close to the middle of the recent ranges. If we continue to see the EURO outperform, the .6040 (resistance 1.6550) will come under pressure. If the move continues through this level, further EUR gains can not be discounted, albeit the easy EUR gains have already been made. Next week, expect the European economic news to provide the primary focus, especially the latest inflation and employment numbers on Friday.
The current interbank midrate is:    NZDEUR .6084    EURNZD 1.6436

The interbank range this week has been:    NZDEUR .6082    EURNZD 1.6442
Tuesday 19th November 2:30PM (NZT)
The New Zealand dollar consistently outperformed the Euro over the last week. This was helped by largely disappointing data from the Eurozone and continued talk from officials that further measures from the ECB are a possibility. Some positive risk sentiment, on the back of Chinese reform announcements, help boost the NZD at the start of this week and the pair traded up to 0.6217 (down to 1.6085), before eventually running out of steam. In the last few hours we have seen the NZD give back some of those gains and the cross now sits on minor support at 0.6160 (above 1.6235). There is little to draw focus from NZ this week with only producer prices data out tomorrow. From Europe the key data to watch over the coming days includes German economic sentiment, manufacturing and service PMI’s, consumer confidence, and German business climate. The NZD topside looks like it will continue to be capped by 0.6240 (support 1.6025) in the medium term, and we can expect more broad ranging between that level and 0.6000 (1.6665) on the NZD downside.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
NZD/EURO 0.6165 0.6040 0.6240 0.6089 - 0.6217
EURO/NZD 1.6221 1.6026 1.6556 1.6085 - 1.6423

Friday 15th November 2:00PM (NZT) - Update
Some relative weakness in the New Zealand dollar in the early part of the week saw this pair lose some ground. That trend reversed on Wednesday when the RBNZ release their financial stability report. The pair initially spiked to the week’s lows as the NZD got hit, but this was short lived and the currency recovered as the detail of the report reinforced the view that the RBNZ will be raising rates next year. The NZD continued to be in demand even after poor retail sales data yesterday, and this pair spiked to the week’s highs in the hours after that release. Minor support around 0.6100 (resistance 1.6400) is so far containing any  NZD weakness and while this is the case the risks remain of a move back up over 0.6200 (below 1.6130). A move below 0.6100 (above 1.6400) would change the outlook and likely see a test toward 0.6000 (1.6660). There is little in the way of meaningful data from NZ next week so the focus will turn to Europe where we get manufacturing data from France and Germany, along with readings on German economic sentiment and business climate.
The current interbank midrate is:    NZDEUR 0.6148    EURNZD 1.6265

The interbank range this week has been:    NZDEUR 0.6089 - 0.6203  EURNZD 1.6121 - 1.6423
Tuesday 12th November 2:30PM (NZT)
This pair spiked up to highs of 0.6281 (lows of 1.5921) in the immediate aftermath of the ECB decision to cut rates late last week. But soon after that release we had strong US GDP figures and the NZD substantially underperformed the EUR as a wave of USD buying swept the market. A similar thing happened on Friday evening after more strong US data was released. The US payrolls number caused further buying of USD’s across the board and the NZD again underperformed the EUR. This has resulted in the cross trading below the level it was before the ECB cut rates. There is some support around 0.6140 (resistance 1.6287) and then again at 0.6100 (1.6393) and these two levels should contain any further downside action in the near term. This week we get GDP readings from France, Germany, and Italy, along with Euro-zone industrial production and a second reading of inflation. From NZ we have the RBNZ financial stability report on Wednesday and retails sales on Thursday.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
NZD/EURO 0.6148 0.6000 0.6200 0.6116 - 0.6281
EURO/NZD 1.6265 1.6129 1.6667 1.5921 - 1.6351

Friday 8th November 2:00PM (NZT) - Update
For most of this week the New Zealand dollar has completely outperformed the Euro. Good employment numbers from NZ have supported and European data has been patchy at best. When the ECB last night announced another cut in interest rates the Euro came under pressure and the cross to the NZD spiked up to the weeks high of 0.6281 (1.5921). But those levels were short lived. After the release of US GDP data, that surprised on the strong side, the NZD massively underperformed against most other currencies. This was partially due to the US stock market losing over 1% and causing a risk negative sentiment to sweep through the market. As the NZD is considered a ‘risk asset’ it got caught up in the negativity and lost a lot of ground. The net result is the NZDEUR is now back at the same level is was before the ECB cut rates. It seems likely the Euro will remain under pressure in the near term and this should keep the focus on the topside for the pair. Next week will see the focus turn to the release of the 3rd quarter NZ retail sales numbers on Thursday, and the bi-annual RBNZ Financial Stability report which is due early Wednesday morning. From Europe we have industrial production, GDP, and the ECB monthly bulletin to digest.
The current interbank midrate is:    NZDEUR 0.6210    EURNZD 1.6103

The interbank range this week has been:    NZDEUR 0.6116 - 0.6281   EURNZD 1.5921 - 1.6351
Tuesday 5th November 1:30PM (NZT)
The past week has seen this pair put in a strong recovery from lows around 0.5980 (down from highs 1.6722). The majority of these gains have come on the back of weakness in the Euro. Recent data from Europe has been less than inspiring and a substantial fall in inflation has raised expectations of action from the European Central Bank (ECB) at this week’s meeting. The currency has moved to reflect this. It will be a close call whether or not the bank cuts the cash rate and the market is divided in its expectations. This means there is potential for a decent move in either direction. 0.6230 (support1.6051) will provide resistance on any potential NZD upside, while the down side will find support around 0.6000 (resistance 1.6667). Ahead of the ECB decision on Thursday we have NZ employment data due out tomorrow.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
NZD/EURO 0.6135 0.6000 0.6200 0.5978 - 0.6153
EURO/NZD 1.6300 1.6129 1.6667 1.6252 - 1.6728

Friday 1st November 3:00PM (NZT) - Update
Price action in this pair has been very muted with little in the way of direction until last night. We did get some volatility around the Fed and RBNZ rate decisions, but the net result was little overall change in the price level. Last night however recent soft European data finally caught up with the EUR and it lost a lot of ground. The trigger was poor employment and inflation data, but there have been a number of other negative factors recently which have helped to swing sentiment. There is minor resistance around 0.6090 (support at 1.6420) which I suspect will eventually be overcome. The key event next week is the ECB rate decision, with many now calling for more action from the central bank. The prospect of that should keep the EUR on the back foot. Ahead of the ECB meeting we get readings on the manufacturing and service sectors, retails sales, and German industrial production. From New Zealand however the calendar is pretty light with only employment data on Tuesday to focus on.
The current interbank midrate is:    NZDEUR 0.6095    EURNZD 1.6407

The interbank range this week has been:    NZDEUR 0.5978 - 0.6090   EURNZD 1.6420 - 1.6728
Tuesday 29th October 3:00PM (NZT)
Despite some average data from Europe lately the EUR has continued to find buyers and this has combined with a softer New Zealand dollar over the last week to see the cross rate lose substantial ground. The pair headed into the weekend trading around support at 0.6000 (resistance 1.6667). There has been little in the way of a NZD recovery in the early stages of this week and this leaves the risks still skewed to the downside. The key event however will be the RBNZ rate statement on Thursday and to what degree they signal the need for a hike next year to help cool the property market. There is a lot of second tier data from Germany this week, however it seems unlikely it will materially affect the recent strength of the European currency.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
NZD/EURO 0.6015 0.6000 0.6200 0.5994 - 0.6215
EURO/NZD 1.6625 1.6129 1.6667 1.6090 - 1.6683

Friday 25th October 1:30PM (NZT) - Update
The New Zealand dollar had a quiet start to the week trading around 0.6190 (1.6155) to the Euro, with little direction. That all changed on Wednesday afternoon as a wave of selling hammered Australasian currencies after concerns about the Chinese banking system saw risk assets dumped. The NZDEUR quickly fell to 0.6073 (rallied to 1.6466) before regaining some composure. Since then however the NZD has remained on the back foot and the cross has lost more ground to currently trade around 0.6045 (1.6543). At the moment is looks like we are on target to test 0.6000 (1.6667) or below. However, recent data out of Europe has left a lot to be desired and it seems surprising the Euro has remained so well supported in light of this. If the data continues to disappoint next week, I would expect the Euro to come under some pressure and this would limit further downside for the NZD against the Euro. To that extend, from Europe next week we have German retail sales, inflation, and employment. While from New Zealand the highlight will be the RBNZ monetary policy statement, which is followed by building consents and business confidence.
The current interbank midrate is:    NZDEUR 0.6020    EURNZD 1.6611

The interbank range this week has been:    NZDEUR 0.6020 - 0.6215    EURNZD 1.6090 - 1.6611
Tuesday 22nd October 2:20PM (NZT)
This pair peaked at 0.6241 (lows 1.6023) on Thursday last week in the wake of strong NZ inflation data. Since then we have seen a gradual drift back, which has yet to test support around 0.6160 (resistance 1.6234). That level is key for near term direction. As long as the pair holds above there (below EURNZD), there is potential for renewed NZD strength. Any break below 0.6160 (above 1.6234) would however turn the picture negative for the NZD, and likely see a deeper correction. Data this week that could drive the pair comes in the form of NZ trade balance. While from Europe we get readings on the manufacturing and service sectors from both France and Germany, along with German business climate and Eurozone consumer confidence.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
NZD/EURO 0.6181 0.6060 0.6240 0.6146 - 0.6241
EURO/NZD 1.6179 1.6077 1.6502 1.6023 - 1.6271

Friday 18th October 2:00PM (NZT) - Update
The New Zealand dollar has performed strongly on a number of crosses this week and against the Euro is no exception. The local currency was supported by stronger than expected inflation data and a positive risk sentiment that returned to the market as a deal in the US was reached. The cross peaked at 0.6241 (bottomed at 1.6023) early yesterday morning but since then the Euro has played a little catch up and the NZD has run into some profit taking. Currently trading around 0.6190 (1.6155) we could easily see further downside and a test of support around 0.6160 (resistance 1.6234). From NZ next week we have only credit card spending and trade balance data, while from Europe we get consumer confidence, manufacturing and service sector surveys, and the German business climate index.
The current interbank midrate is:    NZDEUR 0.6190    EURNZD 1.6155

The interbank range this week has been:    NZDEUR 0.6127 - 0.6241   EURNZD 1.6023 - 1.6321
Tuesday 15th October 2:20PM (NZT)
After spending the better part of three weeks ranging sideways below 0.6160 (above 1.6234) this pair has managed to break through that level in the last 12 hours. The driver for this seems primarily to be strength in the New Zealand dollar. With a deal in the political standoff in the US looking likely, we have seen an increase in risk appetite return to the market and this has supported the NZD. Any further upside action on the NZD will run into resistance at 0.6220 (support at 1.6077). The down side is supported by the bottom of the recent range at 0.6060 (range top at 1.6502). With only inflation data out of NZ tomorrow, focus will then turn to German economic sentiment numbers, Eurozone inflation and current account data.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
NZD/EURO 0.6180 0.6060 0.6220 0.6097 - 0.6176
EURO/NZD 1.6181 1.6077 1.6502 1.6192 - 1.6402

Friday 11th October 12:00PM (NZT) - Update
This week has seen a continuation of the sideways price action ranging between 0.6060 and 0.6160 (1.6234 and 1.6502). A mixed bag of data out of Europe has had little overall impact and two speeches from ECB president Draghi also failed to excite. It looks the current range could be in play for a little while longer. From New Zealand next week we just have inflation data on Wednesday, while from the Eurozone we get industrial production, inflation, and current account data, along with German economic sentiment.
The current interbank midrate is:    NZDEUR 0.6116    EURNZD 1.6351

The interbank range this week has been:   NZDEUR 0.6088 - 0.6159    EURNZD 1.6236 - 1.6426
 
Tuesday 8th October 2:15PM (NZT)
There has been little overall direction in this pair for much of the past two weeks. 0.6060 to 0.6160 (1.6234 to 1.6502) has contained price action since the 24th of September. The cross is currently bang in the middle of that range, and with little in the way of key data from NZ over the rest of this week the driving force will need to come from Europe. ECB president Draghi is set to speak on Thursday and Friday and his comments will be closely watched. Ahead of that we get German trade balance, factory orders, and industrial production. We also have French industrial production on Thursday along with the ECB monthly bulletin.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
NZD/EURO 0.6109 0.6000 0.6160 0.6055 - 0.6157
EURO/NZD 1.6369 1.6234 1.6667 1.6242 - 1.6515

Friday 4th October 2:00PM (NZT) - Update
The early part of the week saw this pair drifting lower on the back of some relative weakness in the New Zealand dollar. The downside action accelerated after the Euro gained support in the wake of the ECB’s rate decision and Italian PM confidence vote. This saw the pair trade to a low of 0.6055 (1.6515). There was a quick reversal however from those lows after RBNZ Governor Wheeler warned about the potential need for sharp interest rate hikes to cool the property market. The pair traded up to 0.6140 (1.6287) but since then it has given back much of those gains. At this point the risks look skewed to the downside with a pullback toward 0.6000 (1.6667) likely. Upcoming data from NZ includes business confidence and the manufacturing index. From Europe next week we have GDP, industrial production for both France and Germany, along with German trade balance and factory orders.
The current interbank midrate is:    NZDEUR 0.6085    EURNZD 1.6434

The interbank range this week has been:    NZDEUR 0.6055 - 0.6157   EURNZD 1.6242 - 1.6515
Tuesday 1st October 2:15PM (NZT)
The NZDEUR broke down below the 0.6160 support level (EURNZD resistance 1.6235) early last week ,and traded down to a low of 0.6083 (high of 1.6439). Since then, the 0.6160 (1.6234) level, has capped the NZD topside on two separate occasions, the most recent being last night as the political situation in Italy weighed on the Euro. But with the pair failing to get back above that level it may well test the downside again. Tomorrow Italian vote of confidence could well be the deciding factor for near term direction. If PM Letta wins the vote we can expect some relief buying of Euros and this will see the cross to the NZD lower. If Letta losses the vote and calls an election the Euro will likely remain under pressure and 0.6160 (1.6234) could well give way with a test of recent NZD highs around 0.6220 (1.6077) likely.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
NZD/EURO 0.6134 0.6000 0.6160 0.6083 - 0.6163
EURO/NZD 1.6303 1.6234 1.6667 1.6226 -1.6439

Friday 27th September 2:00PM (NZT) - Update
After a positive start to the week the New Zealand dollar quickly came under pressure on a number of crosses, and against the Euro was no exception. It was all NZD downside action until support finally emerged around 0.6090 (1.6420). Good news from Fonterra that they have again revised up their forecasted payout seemed to help the NZD regain some composure and since then this pair has recovered around half the week's losses. Resistance around 0.6155 (support 1.6250) has so far capped the recovery and while that’s the case we could turn down again. A break above there however, will open the way for another test of recent highs just above 0.6200 (lows at 1.6130). From NZ next week we just have business confidence and building consents data set for release. While from Europe we have retail sales, unemployment, and the ECB rate decision to focus on.
The current interbank midrate is:    NZDEUR 0.6140    EURNZD 1.6287

The interbank range this week has been:    NZDEUR 0.6083 - 0.6211   EURNZD 1.6077 - 1.6391
 
Tuesday 24th September 2:00PM (NZT)
The New Zealand dollar put in a good week against the Euro last week breaking above resistance at 0.6160 (1.6234) and trading up to a 06220 (1.6077) high. Solid GDP data from NZ helped support the move and since then we have had some patchy numbers from Europe. This has seen the pair consolidate the move higher with trade ranging around the 0.6190 (1.6155) level. So far dips towards 0.6160, now support, (1.6234, now resistance) have contained the downside, but as I write this the NZD is coming under some pressure and we could see another test of that level. A break back below 0.6160 (1.6234) would put all the focus back on the downside. From NZ this week there is only trade balance data and business confidence to digest. While from Europe we get German business and consumer climate, German inflation, and French consumer spending.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
NZD/EURO 0.6168 0.6020 0.6220 0.6117 - 0.6220
EURO/NZD 1.6213 1.6077 1.6611 1.6077 - 1.6391

Friday 20th September 2:00PM (NZT) - Update
The New Zealand dollar has materially outperformed the Euro this week. We have seen some patchy data from the Eurozone, while from NZ we got decent current account and GDP numbers. The NZD also was a much bigger benefactor in the wake of the Fed’s no-taper announcement and this has seen the cross to the EUR touch 0.6220 (1.6077) last night. The uptrend in the pair has been strong since the beginning of September and the break above 0.6160 (below 1.6234) in the last couple of days is a positive signal. However there is a lot of resistance between 0.6200 and 0.6300 (support 1.6129 and 1.5873) and I wouldn’t be surprised to see a top put in place somewhere between those levels in the coming days. If that proves to be the case we should then see a pullback to the 0.6100 (1.6393) level initially. We get consumer confidence numbers early tomorrow morning from Europe and next week there is plenty more data to digest. The highlights of which will be readings on the manufacturing and service sectors, German business climate and retails sales, and a speech by ECB president Draghi on Friday. While from NZ the calendar is much lighter with only trade balance on Wednesday to draw focus.
The current interbank midrate is:    NZDEUR 0.6188    EURNZD 1.6160

The interbank range this week has been:   NZDEUR 0.6101 - 0.6220    EURNZD 1.6077 - 1.6391
Tuesday 17th September 2:00PM (NZT)
The New Zealand dollar materially outperformed the Euro last week as demand surged for the local currency in the wake of the RBNZ monetary policy statement. Gains have however run into key resistance around 0.6160 (support 1.6234), that are the NZD highs from early July, and this has capped further NZD strength on a number of occasions since Friday. While this level contains the topside, the risk remains for a pullback to support around 0.6000 (resistance 1.6667). Any move above 0.6160 (1.6234) would be a positive signal and open the way for broader gains toward 0.6300 (1.5873). But having rallied all the way from 0.5800 ( sold from 1.7241) without a significant pull back, this seems unlikely in the near term. We get data on German economic sentiment tonight, and on Friday we get Eurozone consumer confidence. While from NZ the focus will be on 2nd quarter GDP data out on Thursday.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
NZD/EURO 0.6127 0.6000 0.6160 0.6056 - 0.6154
EURO/NZD 1.6321 1.6234 1.6667 1.6250 - 1.6513

Friday 13th September 2:00PM (NZT) - Update
The New Zealand dollar has continued to appreciate against the Euro, building on solid gains seen the previous week. This comes as European data is been less than inspiring and the RBNZ says it expects to start hiking rates around March or April next year. There is big resistance around 0.6130 (support 1.6313) which has capped the  NZD topside so far and that may well continue heading into the weekend. Levels near or above 0.6100 (below 1.6393)  have proven to be good levels for NZ dollar selling since the pair broke through there in early June. This would suggest the risk / reward scenario is to the NZD downside from here in the near term. Out of Europe next week we have inflation, German economic sentiment, trade balance, and consumer confidence to focus on. While from NZ we get current account, consumer sentiment and GDP data.
The current interbank midrate is:    NZDEUR 0.6122    EURNZD 1.6335

The interbank range this week has been:    NZDEUR 0.6037 - 0.6136   EURNZD 1.6297 - 1.6565
Tuesday 10th September 2:00PM (NZT)
The New Zealand dollar continued to appreciate against the Euro last week as geo-political tensions around Syria subsided and the ECB struck a very cautious tone at their monetary policy meeting. Improvements in the Euro area are very gradual and it is certainly being left behind as the US and UK recoveries gain momentum. This pairing traded up to resistance at 0.6100 (support 1.6393) before drifting back to 0.6050 (1.6529) where it currently sits. Expect 0.6100 (1.6393) to continue to cap the NZ dollar topside ahead of the RBNZ monetary policy statement on Thursday. There is a lack of key data out of Europe this week with only industrial production and the ECB monthly bulletin drawing focus on Thursday evening.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
NZD/EURO 0.6052 0.5900 0.6100 0.5905 - 0.6099
EURO/NZD 1.6523 1.6393 1.6949 1.6396 - 1.6935

Friday 6th September 2:00PM (NZT) - Update
It has been a positive week for this pair with a relentless march higher from the open on Monday morning. The initial move was on the back of a stronger New Zealand dollar as wider market risk aversion waned, but the latest leg higher has come on the back of EUR weakness. Since the ECB’s rate decision last night the EUR has come under pressure. President Draghi’s cautious tone and a scaling back of growth prospects for next year have underlined the fragile outlook for the region. This is keeping the Euro on the back foot ,and we could see a test towards resistance around 0.6100 (support 1.6393). Initial support now comes in at 0.5950 (resistance 1.6807), while above there the focus is on the topside. Next week we have the RBNZ monetary policy statement to focus on while out of Europe industrial production, and the ECB monthly bulletin will be watched.
The current interbank midrate is:    NZDEUR 0.6026    EURNZD 1.6595

The interbank range this week has been:    NZDEUR 0.5860 - 0.6023    EURNZD 1.6603 - 1.7065
Tuesday 3rd September 4:00PM (NZT)
Last week saw the combination of weak NZ data and wider market risk aversion push the NZD to low levels not seen for around 18 months. However, the lowering of geopolitical tensions over the weekend, and the positive Chinese manufacturing numbers has seen the NZD regain much of the ground its lost over the previous two weeks. The NZ dollar gained further ground overnight, against stronger manufacturing numbers in Spain and Italy. With little in the way of NZ data expected for the remainder of the week, the focus will come from Europe, and in particular the ECB’s monetary policy decision on Thursday. No change to monetary policy is expected, but the accompanying statement will be closely watched.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
NZD/EURO 0.5933 0.5800 0.6000 0.5788 - 0.5941
EURO/NZD 1.6855 1.6667 1.7241 1.6832 - 1.7277

Friday 30th August 2.00PM (NZT) - Update
The New Zealand dollar made fresh cycle lows to the Euro this week at 0.5788 (1.7277). This came as the NZD was under pressure due to broad risk aversion in the market. There wasn’t a lot of momentum behind the losses however and the last 48 hours have seen a substantial recovery off those lows. The pair currently trades near 0.5870 (1.7036). The recent recovery has been aided by soft German inflation data and a surprise rise in German unemployment. There is now potential for the pair to stage a broader recovery back toward the middle of its recent range at 0.5950 (1.6807). That level marks the first line of resistance and should cap strength in the near term. Next week will be key for the Euro with the European Central Bank rate decision on Thursday. Ahead of that we get readings on the manufacturing and service sectors, retail sales, and German factory orders.
The current interbank midrate is:    NZDEUR 0.5863    EURNZD 1.7056

The interbank range this week has been:   NZDEUR 0.5788 - 0.5892    EURNZD 1.6972 - 1.7277
Tuesday 27th August 4:00PM (NZT)
Data out of Europe last week was for the most part, supportive of the EUR. That trend continued on Friday evening as consumer confidence hit the wires showing a small improvement. The improved outlook for Europe combined with a weak NZD,  in large part thanks to the RBNZ’s announcement on loan-to-value ratios, to see the NZDEUR cross rate briefly make fresh cycle lows at 0.5815 (highs at 1.7197). The pair recovered nicely off those lows to trade up to 0.5884. But in the last few hours there have been rumours of a US strike on Syria and this has caused risk aversion and selling of the NZD. The pair now trades back towards 0.5840. I suspect the current weakness in the NZD on the back of any potential Syrian strike to be temporary, and any strike will be very limited. This should eventually see the NZDEUR recover back towards 0.5900. There is plenty of data out of Europe this week, the highlights of which are German business climate tonight, and Euro-zone inflation and unemployment on Friday.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
NZD/EURO 0.5852 0.5820 0.6020 0.5815 - 0.6040
EURO/NZD 1.7088 1.6611 1.7182 1.6556 - 1.7197

Friday 23rd August 2.00PM (NZT) - Update
It has been mostly one way traffic for this pair over this week. Early NZD strength was quickly reversed after the cross touched 0.6124 (1.6329) on Monday. The reversal was sharp and helped along by the RBNZ announcement on loan-to-value ratios for the banking sector. We have also this week seen somewhat supportive data out of the Euro-zone with indexes from both the manufacturing and service sectors beating expectation. The low so far has been 0.5855 (high 1.7079), and although the pair has failed so far to stage any sort of a recovery, it has also not yet tested key support around 0.5830 (1.7153). For now the focus and risks are still on the NZD downside. Next week's Euro-zone inflation and employment numbers will be closely watched. While from New Zealand we have trade balance, business confidence, and building consents to digest.
The current interbank midrate is:    NZDEUR 0.5873    EURNZD 1.7027

The interbank range this week has been:    NZDEUR 0.5855 - 0.6124   EURNZD 1.6329 - 1.7079
Tuesday 20th August 3:00PM (NZT)
The last couple of weeks have seen a good recovery by the NZD against the EUR from recent lows near 0.5830 (highs 1.7153). This recovery looks however to have peaked in the last 24 hours at 0.6124 (lows 1.6329). There was no explicit trigger for the turnaround and it comes as the NZD, AUD and CAD all seemed to underperform against most currencies to start the week. The pair has now traded down below 0.6000 (above 1.6666) on the back of the announcement from the RBNZ on new loan-to-value ratios for the banking sector. Although this was widely expected, it has seen the NZD come under renewed selling pressure. This will keep the focus for the NZD against EUR firmly on the downside. There is little in the way of market moving data out of NZ for the rest of the week. From Europe we have to wait until Thursday to get readings on the manufacturing and service sectors, and then Friday for consumer confidence.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
NZD/EURO 0.6000 0.5960 0.6160 0.5992 - 0.6124
EURO/NZD 1.6667 1.6234 1.6779 1.6329 - 1.6689

Friday 16th August 2.00PM (NZT) - Update
The first half of this week saw the New Zealand dollar trading sideways against the Euro between 0.6000 (1.6667) and 0.6050 (1.6529). Strong retail sales data did give the NZD a boost and this eventually saw the pair move up through 0.6050 (down through 1.6529) as the NZD appreciated against the EUR. The high of 0.6095 (low of 1.6407) traded yesterday evening and since then we have seen the pair drift lower back to 0.6050 (1.6529). Resistance at 0.6100 (support 1.6393) should continue to cap the NZD topside for now. If we do happen to get a move through that level, then the next target will be NZD resistance around 0.6160 (1.6234). However the most likely scenario is a slow drift back off towards 0.6000 (1.6667). Tonight out of Europe we get current account data and inflation figures. While next week we get readings on the manufacturing and service sectors, as well as consumer confidence. From New Zealand we have producer prices and inflation expectations.
The current interbank midrate is:    NZDEUR 0.6065    EURNZD 1.6488

The interbank range this week has been:   NZDEUR 0.5992 - 0.6095   EURNZD 1.6407 - 1.6689
 
Tuesday 13th August 3:00PM (NZT)
After briefly trading down to fresh cycle lows in the wake of the Fonterra news early last week, the New Zealand dollar spent the rest of the week grinding its way back higher against the Euro. The recovery looks to have run out of steam around the 0.6050 (1.6529) level and the pair has now pulled back to trade near 0.6000 (1.6667). Recent data out of Europe has been largely supportive of the view that a mild recovery is underway. This should limit further gains for the pair in the near term. I expect the NZD to lose a little more ground to the Euro and the pair to test 0.5950 (1.6807) over the coming days. Reaction at that level will be key. If the pair can hold above there, then it could well attempt a test of stronger resistance near 0.6100 (1.6393). New Zealand has retail sales out tomorrow, while out of Europe we get German economic sentiment tonight, then GDP and inflation for both France and Germany later in the week.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
NZD/EURO 0.6009 0.5840 0.6040 0.5901 - 0.5052
EURO/NZD 1.6642 1.6556 1.7123 1.6523 - 1.6946

Friday 9th August 2.00PM (NZT) - Update
Movements in the NZD vs EUR pair have very closely mirrored movements in the wider sentiment for the NZD this week. The initial NZD weakness on the back of the Fonterra contamination announcement was subsequently reversed and the pair traded higher throughout the week. Resistance around .6000 (support 1.6666) has so far capped further NZD appreciation. Any move through that level will see a move targeting 0.6100 (1.6393). The pair is looking increasingly comfortable in its recent .5900/.6100 (1.6400/1.6950) range, and should continue to trade within this range next week. Next week sees the 2nd quarter NZ retail sales numbers offer focus, alongside a deluge of European GDP, inflation and business sentiment numbers.
The current interbank midrate is:    NZDEUR 0.5970    EURNZD 1.6750

The interbank range this week has been:    NZDEUR 0.5829 - 0.6006    EURNZD 1.6603 - 1.7155
Tuesday 6th August 1:45PM (NZT)
The EURO saw grinding appreciation over the NZ dollar that accelerated into the end of last week. The Fonterra whey scare than evolved over the weekend saw the NZD hit lows yesterday, before relief came overnight as further information came to hand. Helping demand for EURO’s has been a small improvement in the economic news of late. This week in New Zealand will see tonight’s Fonterra dairy auctions results closely monitored ahead of the NZ employment numbers tomorrow. In Europe the economic calendar is relatively light, but expect focus to come from the German industrial production numbers on Wednesday. The .5830 (1.7150) level represents the key target in the short term, if this pair is to continue its way towards more historically average levels.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
NZD/EURO 0.5908 0.5830 0.6030 0.5829 - 0.6023
EURO/NZD 1.6926 1.6580 1.7150 1.6603 - 1.7155

Friday 2nd August 2.00PM (NZT) - Update
This week the NZD has seen grinding pressure from a somewhat resurgent EUR. The European economic news has not been as dire of late, and this continued this week with solid Italian manufacturing numbers, and a slightly better improved employment landscape. The ECB monetary policy announcement proved of limited impact. Next week will prove interesting as the NZ 2nd quarter employment numbers provide the NZ focus. In Europe there is a raft of news to hold interest.  NZD support at .5900(1.6950) could we be tested as the pair pushes the NZD to the lower end of the recent range, A consolidated break of this level could prove dramatic, and would need assistance from a further weakening AUD. Notwithstanding short term moves, the pair looks destined to continue its move back towards more historically average levels in the coming months.
The current interbank midrate is:    NZDEUR 0.5984    EURNZD 1.6711

The interbank range this week has been:   NZDEUR 0.5946 - 0.6095   EURNZD 1.6407 - 1.6818
Tuesday 30th July 4:45PM (NZT)
The NZD rallied up to 0.6100 (1.6393) last week in the wake of the RBNZ monetary policy statement. It closed the week just below that level and spent much of yesterday testing 0.6100 (1.6393) again. Its failure to break through has seen it pull back a touch to currently trade around 0.6050 (1.6529). The market is now in a holding pattern awaiting some key releases later this week. We have the FED policy meeting on Thursday morning, and then the European Central Bank meeting on Thursday night. Key support for the pair comes in around 0.6010 (resistance 1.6639). A move below there would be a weak signal and open the way for a test of recent lows around 0.5850 (highs 1.7094). The topside will prove tougher going with initial resistance at 0.6100 (support1.6393) likely to continue to cap any NZD strength for now.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
NZD/EURO 0.6030 0.5900 0.6100 0.5993 - 0.6098
EURO/NZD 1.6584 1.6393 1.6949 1.6399 - 1.6686

Friday 26th July 2.00PM (NZT) - Update
This week has seen mostly sideway action for the New Zealand dollar against the Euro. The weeks lows traded as the NZD was dragged down by a soft AUD after very poor Chinese manufacturing data. The pair quickly turned around however after the RBNZ’s monetary policy statement warned that house price pressures could affect monetary policy. This saw a sharp increase in demand for the NZD, and that has continued overnight with the NZD outperforming most other currencies. This has seen the NZDEUR trade up towards resistance around 0.6100 (1.6393). A move over 0.6100 (under 1.6393) will target the July 10th highs of 0.6160 (Lows of 1.6234). Next week will be very interesting with plenty of data out of Europe. The main focus however will be on the European Central Bank monetary policy announcement on Thursday evening. From NZ we get a reading on business confidence on Wednesday.
The current interbank midrate is:    NZDEUR 0.6086    EURNZD 1.6431

The interbank range this week has been:    NZDEUR 0.5993 - 0.6098    EURNZD 1.6399 - 1.6686
Tuesday 23rd July 3:00PM (NZT)
This pair looks increasingly comfortable in its recent .5900 - .6100 (1.6400 - 1.6950) range. This week should prove interesting with the latest European manufacturing and business confidence data to provide a focus. In New Zealand, the RBNZ’s monetary policy statement that will accompany its unchanged cash rate will be closely followed on Thursday. Any insight to the timing of cash rate hikes expected in the coming year will be of impact. Barring any major surprise, expect this pair to remain within its recent range this week. The pick in sentiment in the European periphery should provide support for the EURO in the short term.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
NZD/EURO 0.6061 0.5900 0.6100 0.5971 - 0.6076
EURO/NZD 1.6499 1.6393 1.6949 1.6458 - 1.6748

Friday 19th July 12.00PM (NZT) - Update
The week has seen unremarkable price action for this pairing. The contained range has been well within the wider band that the pair has established itself in over the last month. The uneventful NZ inflation number provided the NZ focus for the week. In Europe, German business sentiment numbers were lower than expected, albeit these were also of limited impact. Next week sees the European manufacturing numbers will be closely watched and these come on Wednesday, ahead of the RBNZ monetary policy statement on Thursday. The pair looks comfortable in the wider .5950-.6150 (1.6260- 1.6800) range, and this should continue to contain the price action in the short term.
The current interbank midrate is:    NZDEUR 0.6031    EURNZD 1.6581

The interbank range this week has been:   NZDEUR 0.5946 - 0.6038   EURNZD 1.6229 - 1.6819
Tuesday 16th July 3:30PM (NZT)
There has been little in the way of positive news flow out of Europe in the last week, however the Euro seems to be comfortable holding on to much of the gains it made after the Fed minutes last week. As the NZD gave back most of its same gains the cross has drifted back below 0.6000 (1.6667). With little positive news to trade off I still expect dips toward 0.5900 (1.6949) to find support in the near term. We do get German economic sentiment data tonight that has the potential to impact along with Euro inflation and trade figures.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
NZD/EURO 0.5980 0.5900 0.6100 0.5946 - 0.6162
EURO/NZD 1.6722 1.6393 1.6949 1.6229 - 1.6819

Friday 12th July 2:45PM (NZT) - Update
This week has seen a big range in the NZDEUR (EURNZD) pairing. The first half of the week was dominated by EUR weakness on the back of negative news flow. Italy’s downgrade by Standard and Poors, the IMF downgrading growth forecasts, and conflicting comments from officials all weighed on the EUR. This saw the cross rate trade up to its highs of 0.6162 (lows of 1.6228). Both currencies rallied strongly against the USD after the Fed minutes were released and the EUR has managed to hold onto much of those gains. The NZD has not been so lucky giving back a lot of ground as rumours of a very soft Chinese GDP number due next week did the rounds. As a result the pair went from its highs of 0.6162 (1.6228) to its lows of 0.5952 (1.6801) in about 48 hours, and has so far only managed a small bounce. Increasing concerns over Europe should keep the pair supported on any dips toward or below 0.5950 (1.6807) in the near term.
The current interbank midrate is:    NZDEUR 0.6002    EURNZD 1.6661

The interbank range this week has been:  NZDEUR 0.5952 - 0.6162    EURNZD 1.6229 - 1.6800
Tuesday 9th July 4:00PM (NZT)
Last week proved to be an interesting one for this pair. The EURO gave up significant ground following the long awaited ECB monetary policy statement. ECB president Draghi instigated a forward guidance policy. This was in direct response to the interest rate markets move to price higher rates in response to moves in the US. The EURO reacted appropriately at the time, but much of the lost ground was regained on Friday following the US employment numbers. Positive US data will negatively impact the NZD more than the EURO. This factor tempers the opposing force of the ECB’s commitment to low interest rates for an extended period. On the balance the pair remains in the increasingly comfortable .5950-.6150 (1.6250 - 1.6800) range. Weaker German industrial production numbers yesterday were balanced by positive progress in Greece and Portugal.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
NZD/EURO 0.6068 0.6000 0.6200 0.5943 - 0.6094
EURO/NZD 1.6480 1.6129 1.6667 1.6409 - 1.6827

Friday 5th July 2:45PM (NZT) - Update
The NZDEUR spent most of this week trading sideways in a tight range between 0.5930 - 0.6000 (1.6667 - 1.6863). As the week wore on, and with concerns over Portugal and Greece, the EUR was starting to see some selling pressure which saw the cross trading up around 0.6000 (1.6667) as we headed into last night’s ECB rate decision. The strongly worded guidance on rates going forward and discussion of potential further cuts saw a material increase in EUR selling. This caused the NZDEUR cross to spike higher touching 0.6086 (low 1.6431) before pulling back slightly. The risks must now still be skewed to the NZD topside with further tests toward 0.6100 (1.6393) likely. With interest rates in Europe to stay low for the foreseeable future, and lingering concerns over peripheral nations, it seems the EUR is likely to struggle for some time. Tonight’s US employment report could shake things up, but look for buyers on any potential dips towards 0.6000 (seller towards 1.6667) with the risk being for further  NZD gains.
The current interbank midrate is:    NZDEUR 0.6059    EURNZD 1.6504

The interbank range this week has been: NZDEUR 0.5936 - 0.6086 EURNZD 1.6431 - 1.6846
Tuesday 2nd July 3:00PM (NZT)
The recovery off the recent cycle lows for the NZD against the EURO ran out of steam at 0.6030 (1.6584), in the middle of last week. Since then we have seen sideways consolidation between that peak, and 0.5900 (1.6950). Improved readings on Euro-zone manufacturing have helped to support the Euro, as the market awaits the ECB rate decision on Thursday. Prior to the ECB announcement, the latest data on retail sales and readings on the service sector will be released to offer a lead. It’s hard to know just what ECB president Draghi will say at his press conference on Thursday, however recent comments from him and other officials give us a clue. They are not at all happy with the move higher in interest rates since the announcement on tapering by the US Fed. It’s not unreasonable to expect them to try to talk down longer term interest rates, or perhaps even take bolder action. Any such event should undermine support for the EUR, at least initially. Until then expect the pair to be contained in the 0.5900-0.6050 (1.6530-1.6950) range.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
NZD/EURO 0.5970 0.5850 0.6050 0.5879 - 0.6031
EURO/NZD 1.6750 1.6529 1.7094 1.6582 - 1.7009

Friday 28th June 3:15PM (NZT) - Update
The Euro has struggled somewhat, particularly in the second half of this week, and as a result the cross to the New Zealand dollar has recovered off recent lows. Although the data out of Europe hasn’t been all that bad, the currency has been weighed on by concerns over Italy and a general back up in bond yields since the Fed announcement. This is the last thing the Euro-zone needs at a time when countries are still struggling to get their finances in order. In light of this the NZDEUR seems unlikely to test recent cycle lows around 0.5850 (1.7094) in the near term. Instead we can expect more sideways consolidation with an upside bias. If initial resistance at 0.6030 (1.6584) is overcome, the focus will turn to 0.6100 (1.6393). Data out of Europe next week will like be the driving force for the pair with unemployment, retail sales, and the ECB rate decision all scheduled.
The current interbank midrate is:    NZDEUR 0.5975    EURNZD 1.6736

The interbank range this week has been:   NZDEUR 0.5869 - 0.6031   EURNZD 1.6582 - 1.7040
Tuesday 25th June 3:20PM (NZT)
The NZDEUR touched cycle lows last week after a combination of the US Fed announcement and weaker NZ GDP weighed on the NZD. Since then we have seen a small recovery with the pair trading back above 0.5900 (below 1.6949). The bounce has been less than convincing though, and the risks are still skewed to the downside. It will take a move back above 0.5950 (below 1.6807) to relieve immediate downside pressure. That would turn the focus on to further gains and a test of 0.6060 (1.6502). Until then further tests of support around 0.5850 (1.7094) are likely. This week sees lots of second tier Euro-zone data out, as well as NZ trade balance and business confidence to focus on.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
NZD/EURO 0.5902 0.5850 0.6050 0.5843 - 0.6012
EURO/NZD 1.6943 1.7094 1.6529 1.6634 - 1.7115

Friday 21st June 3:45PM (NZT) - Update
The NZDEUR started the week on its highs but quickly drifted lower to settle around 0.5970 as the market waited to hear from the US Fed. Ben Bernanke's subsequent announcement saw both currencies lose ground against the US dollar however it was the NZD that suffered the most. That saw the cross rate head lower, and the move was compounded by weaker than expected GDP data out of New Zealand. Overnight we have had better readings out of Europe on the manufacturing and service sectors which have supported the Euro and seen the pair trade to its lows. There is some support around 0.5850 (1.7094) and while that holds we could see the pair drift higher, but I wouldn’t get carried away on the topside with resistance coming in around 0.5950 (1.6807) likely to cap it in the near term. The risk is for further tests of the lows with any break of 0.5850 (1.7094) opening the way for a move to 0.5700 (1.7544).
The current interbank midrate is:    NZDEUR 0.5877    EURNZD 1.7015

The interbank range this week has been:   NZDEUR 0.5846 - 0.6076   EURNZD 1.6457 - 1.7106
Tuesday 18th June 3:30PM (NZT)
Movements in the New Zealand dollar have been the driving force of this pair recently, with the Euro remaining well supported and somewhat more stable than the NZD. As the NZD staged a recovery from recent weakness last week, so did this pair trading all the way up to 0.6100 (down to 1.6393). The cross has given back some of its gains overnight as the NZD lost ground and it now trades just below 0.6000 (above 1.6667). A period of sideways trading is now expected between 0.5900 (1.6949) and 0.6100 (1.6393) as the pair consolidates the recent down trend. There is plenty of data out this week for both currencies to give further insight and add to volatility.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
NZD/EURO 0.5980 0.5900 0.6100 0.5844 - 0.6101
EURO/NZD 1.6722 1.6949 1.6393 1.6391 - 1.7110

Friday 14th June 3:15PM (NZT) - Update
The Euro has continued to remain well supported this week, with the cross rate to the New Zealand dollar making a low of 0.5844 (1.7110). But as the NZD found some strength in the middle of the week, the NZDEUR has staged a sharp recovery. In fact it now looks like a medium term low has been put in place at 0.5844 (1.7110). I would be surprised to see that level tested again in the near future. The pair will no doubt remain choppy, but look for dips to find buyers and further tests of the upside with 0.6100 (1.6393) the initial target.
The current interbank midrate is:    NZDEUR 0.6040    EURNZD 1.6556

The interbank range this week has been:   NZDEUR 0.5844- 0.6067   EURNZD 1.6483 - 1.7110
Tuesday 11th June 3:20PM (NZT)
The New Zealand dollar versus the EUR exchange rate remains entrenched in a downtrend that saw lows of 0.5932 (1.6858) trade yesterday. A small recovery since then has failed to gain much momentum and never even tested the first line of resistance. This leaves the picture looking very soft for the pair with a test of support at 0.5900 (1.6950) expected. Better data out of Germany on Friday has helped to increase demand for the EUR which should remain supported ahead of inflation data and the ECB monthly report out later this week. Initial resistance is at 0.5990 (1.6694) and it will take a move above there to relieve some of the downside pressure.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
NZD/EURO 0.5945 0.5900 0.6060 0.5932 - 0.6201
EURO/NZD 1.6821 1.6949 1.6502 1.6126 - 1.6858

Friday 7th June 5:15PM (NZT) - Update
The EUR has remained well supported all week against most currencies. Better manufacturing data early in the week helped, as did comments from ECB president Draghi last night that further stimulus measures are on hold for the time being. Good EUR demand combined with a soft NZD has seen the cross consistently grind lower over the last 5 days. The pair has taken out the 2013 low at 0.6110 (high 1.6367) and looks on it’s way to test the low set in May 2012 around 0.5900 (1.6950). With the focus firmly on the downside, any strength should now run into resistance at 0.6170 (1.6207). Next week’s RBNZ rate decision and ECB monthly report will be the highlights with Euro-zone CPI and industrial production also closely watched.
The current interbank midrate is:    NZDEUR 0.6010    EURNZD 1.6639

The interbank range this week has been:   NZDEUR 0.6019 - 0.6201   EURNZD 1.6126 - 1.6614
Tuesday 4th June 4:50PM (NZT)
The NZ dollars march lower against the EURO over the last two months reached a key level in the last few days of 0.6110 (1.6366). That’s almost exactly the same level that marked a NZD low back on January 30th. We have seen a bounce from there, but it has done little to change the overall picture. So the focus will remain on further NZ dollar downside. Only a move back above 0.6230 (below 1.6051) would change the near term outlook. It’s a big week in terms of Euro-zone data with highlight being the ECB monetary policy decision on Thursday. Before that we get readings on the service sector and GDP. These releases will drive the pair as there is little in the way for domestic data out for NZ.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
NZD/EURO 0.6164 0.6110 0.6300 0.6110 - 0.6298
EURO/NZD 1.5060 1.5873 1.6366 1.5878 - 1.6366

Friday 31st May 2:25PM (NZT) - Update
This pair traded sideways for much of the week around 0.6260 (1.5975). The EUR found a bit of support on stronger inflation numbers out of Germany. These have reduced the risk of a move to negative interest rates by the ECB. Last night as the USD gave up some ground across the board, the EUR materially outperformed the NZD. This saw a sharp move lower as the pair traded down to 0.6170 (upto 1.6210). Further NZD weakness can’t be ruled out with 0.6230 (1.6050) now the target for any resurgence from the NZD. A sustained move below 0.6170 (1.6210) could signal a bigger pullback which would target 0.6060 (1.6500) ahead of 0.5900 (1.6950). Tonight’s data from EUR will dictate the direction of this pair into the early part of next week. There is plenty for the market to focus on this evening with Euro-zone inflation, unemployment, and German retail sales.
The current interbank midrate is:    NZDEUR 0.6200    EURNZD 1.6130

The interbank range this week has been:    NZDEUR 0.6170 - 0.6312    EURNZD 1.5843 - 1.6207

Tuesday 28th May 4:50PM (NZT)
The last few days have seen this pair trade a tight range around 0.6250 (1.6000), which is not far off its recent lows. The lack of any meaningful bounce after the sustained downtrend of the last month is not a good sign. This keeps the focus on a test of yearly lows near 0.6130 (highs 1.6310). With little out on the domestic front for New Zealand this week, the driving force will come from Europe which has plenty of economic data set for release. Initial resistance at 0.6310 (support 1.5850) will need to be overcome to relieve downside pressure.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
NZD/EURO .6258 .6200 .6400 .6233 - .6362
EURO/NZD 1.5979 1.5625 1.6130 1.5718 - 1.6043

Friday 24th May 3:00PM (NZT) - Update
After recovering in the early part of the week, the NZD could not sustain the gains against the EURO. It quickly reversed down from levels just over 0.6350 (up from under 1.5750).It was almost one way traffic from there, as the NZD ground is way down to its lowest level since mid-February. Renewed demand for NZ dollars last night saw some respite, but that has proved short lived and the cross is again eyeing up the lows around 0.6240 (1.6025). With little out on the domestic front next week, the focus will turn to European data in the form of inflation and consumer confidence. German retail sales and unemployment are also scheduled for release. With the NZD remaining under some pressure, the risk is for more tests of the downside on this pair.
The current interbank midrate is:    NZDEUR .6260    EURNZD 1.5975

The interbank range this week has been:    NZDEUR .6240 - .6362    EURNZD 1.5718 - 1.6026
Tuesday 21st May 3:50PM (NZT)
The NZD was under pressure from the EURO last week, and finished the week on its lows under 0.6300 (above 1.5870). However the NZD has regained some composure in the last 24 hours and traded back up to 0.6350 (1.5750). The last three weeks has seen a pullback from the 0.6550 (1.5270) level, and this has kept the NZD downside the immediate focus. However, it’s hard to get overly negative on this on the NZD against the EURO around the current levels. New Zealand is economically very sound at the moment, while Europe is the complete opposite. Broadly speaking, much of the last year has seen the NZDEUR drift up and down between 0.6200 (1.6130) and 0.6600 (1.5150). It’s hard to see anything in the near term that will change that. Any moves down toward 0.6200 (1.6130) present good value to buying of NZD against EUR.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
NZD/EURO .6347 .6200 .6400 .6283 - .6415
EURO/NZD 1.5755 1.5625 1.6130 1.5590 - 1.5915

Friday 17th May 4:40PM (NZT) - Update
With both the NZD and the EUR suffering at the hands of a strong USD, this pair has seen some choppy price action. Increased demand for NZ dollars following the NZ budget yesterday, saw the pair touch it’s highs for the week at 0.6415 (low 1.5590) . However the NZ dollar has traded swiftly lower since then, and the pair has now made fresh lows just below 0.6300 (above 1.5870). This keeps the focus firmly on the downside for the NZD. There is minor support around 0.6270(resistance 1.5950), and below there 0.6200 (1.6130) will come into play. Expect continued volatile price action in the near term. Working limit orders is a good strategy in this type of market to take advantage of any spikes price.
The current interbank midrate is:    NZDEUR .6300  EURNZD 1.5873

The interbank range this week has been:  NZDEUR .6292 - .6413  EURNZD 1.5593 - 1.5893
Tuesday 14th May 3:15PM (NZT)
New Zealand has little local economic data for the remainder of this week which will provide a lead for this pair. However, in Europe the latest inflation and GDP numbers for both Germany and the Euro-zone will be closely watched. Currently trading with the NZ dollar near one month lows, the risk is still the downside for the NZD. This will be the case as long as the pair is holds below 0.6450 (above 1.5500). The target of any further downside action will be support around 0.6200 (resistance 1.6130). A recovery back above 0.6450 (below 1.5500) opens the way for a test of 0.6600 (1.5150).
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
NZD/EURO .6665 .6425 .6600 .6349 - .6513
EURO/NZD 1.5710 1.5150 1.5565 1.5354 - 1.5750

Friday 10th May 2:40PM (NZT) - Update
The NZDEUR has followed a similar path to many of the other NZD crosses this week. The action has been dominated by pressure on the NZD after talk of currency intervention by Governor Wheeler was coupled with the bounce back after our strong employment numbers. The weakness in the pair between those two events saw it trade is lowest level in six weeks at 0.6367 (high 1.5700). It has recovered nicely from there and at this point seems to be holding firmly above 0.6420 (below 1.5580). The outlook is very unclear for this pair in the near term, with continued volatile trade likely. In this environment working orders in the market at desired levels is a good option to take advantage of the spikes and troughs for those looking to cover exposure. Next week sees a full calendar of economic releases for the European economy, with the highlights being inflation and GDP numbers for both Germany and the Euro-zone as a whole.
The current interbank midrate is:    NZDEUR .6420    EURNZD 1.5576

The interbank range this week has been:    NZDEUR .6368 - .6516    EURNZD 1.5345 - 1.5700
Tuesday 7th May 5:15PM (NZT)
Weakness in this pair after the ECB’s rate cut and negative interest rate talk, saw it trade down to 0.6440 (1.5528). It has since recovered back to a more comfortable level of just above 0.6500(below 1.5385), sitting right in the middle of the broad 0.6400 - 0.6600 range of the last few weeks. More of the same is expected over the coming days, with NZ unemployment data Thursday likely to add some volatility. A shock number there will the lower end of the range tested. Aside from that, sideways action within the range is likely.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
NZD/EURO .6490 0.6425 0.6600 0.6430 - 0.6550
EURO/NZD 1.5408 1.5150 1.5565 1.5265 - 1.5550

Friday 3rd May 2:25PM (NZT) - Update
Like the GBP, the EUR spent most of the week gaining ground against most other currencies. However, a lot of the hard work was undone last night after the ECB rate decision. Talk of negative deposit rates really saw the EUR take a hit, and the NZDEUR finds itself back up to where it started the week around 0.6500. So the broad range of 0.6400 - 0.6600 that has contained the pair for the last 5 weeks remains in play. Next week’s focus will be NZ employment numbers, while the Europeans see a raft of monthly data, the most notable of which is retail sales.
The current interbank midrate is:    NZDEUR .6510    EURNZD 1.5361

The interbank range this week has been:    NZDEUR .6429 - .6550    EURNZD 1.5267 - 1.5555
Tuesday 30th April 4:15PM (NZT)
The NZDEUR has been consolidating gains (EURNZD losses) made over the past week on the back of broad based NZD strength. With expectations growing of a 0.25 point cut by the ECB at it’s Thursday rate meeting, the risk is for further NZD outperformance in the short term. Initial resistance lies at 0.6550 (support 1.5267), ahead of recent highs at 0.6609 (1.5130). Minor support at 0.6470 (resistance 1.5455) protects the more important level of 0.6425 (resistance 1.5565) on the downside. The ECB monetary policy decision provides the primary focus this week for this pair.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
NZD/EURO .6535 .6400 .6600 .6412 - .6557
EURO/NZD 1.5302 1.5150 1.5625 1.5250 - 1.5596

Friday 26th April 4:45PM (NZT) - Update
The strong gains made across the board by the NZD this week have seen this currency pair push higher and a test of recent highs just above 0.6600 (lower 1.5151) could well be on the cards. Support around 0.6425(resistance1.5565) looks unlikely to be challenged anytime soon. With the outlook for a rate cut by the ECB next week starting to look more likely, the EUR will no doubt find sellers on any bouts of strength. Any dips in the NZDEUR (rallies EURNZD) are likely to find increased NZD demand, as fundamentals favour the NZD in the near term.
The current interbank midrate is:    NZDEUR    EURNZD

The interbank range this week has been:    NZDEUR .6412 - .6557    EURNZD 1.5251 - 1.5596
Tuesday 23rd April 6:15PM (NZT)
For the most part this pair has traded within a very contained range throughout the course of the last week, albeit with a slight bias towards NZ dollar under performance. This increasing vulnerability for the NZ dollar has increased as the concerns about the global growth path have increased, and the wider commodity markets have come under pressure. Today’s weaker than expected Chinese manufacturing numbers have further these issues for the NZ dollar ahead of the RBNZ monetary policy statement tomorrow (Wednesday). This meeting, along with the European manufacturing numbers later on today, provide the respective domestic focal points for the week. Expect the pair to continue trade within the wider range in the coming weeks.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
NZD/EURO .6432 .6350 .6550 .6417 - .6487
EURO/NZD 1.5547 1.5270 1.5750 1.5415 - 1.5583

Friday 19th April 4:02PM (NZT) - Update
The increased risk aversion at the start of the week saw the EURO put renewed pressure on the NZ dollar. Since that initial pressure the pair has moved within a very contained range. The .6350 (1.5750) level remains the target for any further EURO appreciation, but as talk of interest rate easing from the ECB increases, a push through that level seems unlikely in the short term. Next week will see the focus come on the RBNZ statement of Wednesday in NZ. In Europe manufacturing numbers on Tuesday offer the primary focus. Expect the wider range of .6350 - .6550 (1.5270 - 1.5750) to contain next week’s price action.
The current interbank midrate is:    NZDEUR .6453    EURNZD 1.5497

The interbank range this week has been:    NZDEUR .6423 - .6545    EURNZD 1.5279 - 1.5569
Tuesday 16th April 4:42PM (NZT)
The increased demand for the New Zealand dollar saw it push through the resistance at .6550 (1.5270 support) last week. It was only following weak US data on Friday, that the NZ dollar started to give up some of its gained ground. However, weak Chinese GDP number and subsequent rout in the commodity markets has coupled with the frightful terror event in Boston to see the EURO place further pressure on the NZD. So now the pair sits comfortably back in what had been a very familiar range until last week. Expect NZD demand to remain vulnerable in the short term.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
NZD/EURO .6486 .6350 .6550 .6433 - .6627
EURO/NZD 1.5418 1.5270 1.5750 1.5089 - 1.5545

Friday 12th April 2:02PM (NZT) - Update
Broad based NZD strength has seen it rise up to be around record levels against the EURO again this week. This has come in the absence of any material NZ economic data and the move has been one of grinding appreciation. Whilst a corrective move lower should not be discounted, there appears to be little to provide the impetus for a move such as this in the coming week. The focus in the near term will come from European economic sentiment and inflation numbers on Tuesday, and the NZ first quarter inflation numbers on Wednesday. Needless to say current levels offer great value buying of EURO with NZ dollars.
The current interbank midrate is:    NZDEUR .6582    EURNZD 1.5193

The interbank range this week has been:    NZDEUR .6470 - .6627    EURNZD 1.5090 - 1.5456
Tuesday 9th April 4:51PM (NZT)
The NZD saw initial demand against the EURO last week. However, the post GDT auction demand was not to last and as the market scramble to cover "sold EURO" positions, the increasing EURO demand pushed the pair back to some support at .6450 (resistance at 1.5500). There is no hiding the issues in Europe, but with the US dollar back under renewed pressure, further gains but the EURO cannot be ruled out in the short term. This week sees little in the way of economic data of impact in either economy. Expect the variable EURO demand to be the primary driver for the pair. Anywhere around current levels and above for the NZ dollar constitutes great value buying of EURO.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
NZD/EURO .6502 .6350 .6550 .6448 - .6584
EURO/NZD 1.5379 1.5270 1.5750 1.5188 - 1.5509

Friday 5th April 4:28PM (NZT) - Update
It has been an interesting week for this pair on a number of different levels. The pair blasted through resistance at .6550 (1.5270 support), as the NZD saw sharply increased demand against the GBP on Tuesday. However, the ensuing sessions have seen the pair push back through that level in what have been volatile markets. The reaction to the ECB's statement accompanying their unchanged monetary policy decision overnight has seen the pair push back to far more comfortable current levels. The coming week will likely be driven by sentiment emanating from Cyprus and Italy as their respective issues play out. The sharp rise in NZD demand point towards re-insurance flows and these could also be an on going influence as they periodically have been over the last year or so.
The current interbank midrate is:    NZDEUR .6495    EURNZD 1.5396

The interbank range this week has been:    NZDEUR .6495 - .6583    EURNZD 1.5191 - 1.5396
Tuesday 2th April 4:00PM (NZT)
The NZ dollar remains at elevated levels against the EURO. Concerns in Europe surrounding Cyprus and the Italian political situation point toward the pair remaining with the NZD at elevated levels in the short term at least. With little in the way of NZ economic data this week, expect further developments in Europe to drive price action. European unemployment, retail sales and inflation numbers join the ECB's monetary policy decision in providing focus for this pair. Current levels offer continued value buying of EURO's with NZ dollars.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
NZD/EURO .6520 .6350 .6550 .6484 - .6554
EURO/NZD 1.5337 1.5270 1.5750 1.5258 - 1.5423

Tuesday 26th March 4:10PM (NZT)
With the debacle playing out in Cyprus last week, it was no surprise that the NZ dollar made some solid gains against the EURO. Interestingly, it has only been in the recent sessions that the pair broke resistance at .6450 (support 1.5500). The EURO is likely to remain under pressure in the short term at least. However, the fact that Cyprus is ready to accept the EU/ECB/IMF proposals in order to remain in the EURO is meaningful, and this kind of commitment should bode well for the EURO overtime. Needless to say that current levels offer great value buying of EURO with NZ dollars. There is little economic news in either economy this week. Expect developments in Cyprus to continue to be a leading force as the market looks forward to the ECB monetary policy announcement next week.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
NZD/EURO .6482 .6350 .6550 .6346 - .6500
EURO/NZD 1.5427 1.5270 1.5750 1.5385 - 1.5758

Friday 22nd March February 4:15PM (NZT) - Update
Ahead of yesterday's large NZ GDP number, this pair had traded a relatively tight range for the week. This was somewhat surprising given the uncertainty being created by the debacle playing out in Cyprus. The weaker European economic data would have aided the NZD appreciation in the last couple of sessions. The near term direction will likely be dictated by which side of the NZDEUR .6450 (EURNZD 1.5500) level the pair consolidates on. Next week will likely be driven by eventualities in Cyprus, with little in the way of top tier economic news data due for release in either economy.
The current interbank midrate is:    NZDEUR .6445    EURNZD 1.5516

The interbank range this week has been:    NZDEUR .6346 - .6465    EURNZD 1.5468 - 1.5758
Tuesday 19th March 3:58PM (NZT)
It was an interesting wrestle for this pair last week. The EURO put pressure on the NZ dollar following the RBNZ monetary policy statement. However the NZD dollar managed to fight back from its lows late on Friday, and following the Cyprus announcement over the weekend, the NZD leapt back higher to start this week. For the time being the resistance at .6400 (support 1.5625) has held. This level remains the key for direction in the near term. Along with the various economic data releases in Europe, further news from Cyprus will offer primary focus this week in Europe. The belated NZ GDP numbers on Thursday will offer local NZ attention. Current levels could well have proven to have offered good value buying of EURO with NZ dollars in the coming months.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
NZD/EURO .6363 .6200 .6400 .6289 - .6394
EURO/NZD 1.5716 1.5625 1.6130 1.5640 - 1.5901

Friday 15th March February 4:15PM (NZT) - Update
This pair has been volatile within its relatively contained range this week. The NZD saw a sharp increase in demand in the sessions ahead of the RBNZ monetary policy statement. The subsequent reaction to the statement saw the NZD immediately pushed close to the lows for the week, before the pair stablised at the lower end of the recent range. It seems likely the current .6200 - .6400 range will contain the price action in the coming week, with the 4th quarter NZ GDP numbers on Thursday the focus. German sentiment data and European manufacturing numbers will also offer increased focus.
The current interbank midrate is:    NZDEUR .6310    EURNZD 1.5848

The interbank range this week has been:    NZDEUR .6302 - .6375    EURNZD 1.5686 - 1.5868
Monday 11th March 4:01PM (NZT)
This pair continues to trade within the range it has established over the last eight weeks or so. The NZD saw grinding appreciation to start the week and this was boosted by the positive GDT auction results. However, the ECB decision to leave monetary policy unchanged reassured investors and the demand for EURO increased accordingly. The weaker Chinese data over the weekend has seen the NZD start the week under a little pressure. In the absence of any materially important NZ or European news ahead of the RBNZ monetary policy statement on Thursday, expect the wider market sentiment to continue to provide the lead for this pair. Current levels look to offer fair value for this pair in the current environment.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
NZD/EURO .6325 .6200 .6400 .6299 - .6404
EURO/NZD 1.5810 1.5625 1.6130 1.5615 - 1.5875

Friday 8th March February 4:00PM (NZT) - Update
This pair remains in increasing familiar territory and the pair sits close to where it started the week. The jump in price in the GDT auction saw demand increase for the NZD through the belly of the week. However, the EURO saw increased demand following the ECB's unchanged monetary policy decision overnight. This has pushed the pair back into the middle of the recent range. The RBNZ monetary policy decision now becomes the primary focus next week, along side the Italian political situation and the EU summit. Expect the familiar range around current levels to continue in the short term.
The current interbank midrate is:    NZDEUR .6312    EURNZD 1.5843

The interbank range this week has been:    NZDEUR .6299 - .6404    EURNZD 1.5615 - 1.5875

Tuesday 5th March 4:53PM (NZT)
The NZD saw some intense pressure from the EURO to start last week. However, after bouncing from the lows the pair saw relatively quiet trade within a contained range. Europe will provide the sole focus for this pair this week, as there are no data releases of note in NZ. The ECB is the the primary event, and the accompanying statement of what should be an unchanged cash rate decision  provides the primary focus. The Italian political situation also will have a baring, and should be closely monitored by those with EUR interest.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
NZD/EURO .6345 .6200 .6400 .6281 - .6390
EURO/NZD 1.5760 1.5625 1.6130 1.5649 - 1.5921

Friday 1st March February 4:33PM (NZT) - Update
The resistance at .6400 (support 1.5625) contained the early appreciation from the NZ this week. As the “noise” in Europe lessened, and some nervousness grew about the drought in NZ, the NZD saw increasing pressure come on from the EURO. The pair sits mid-range and looks to be a fair value levels for the current environment. Next week’s focus comes entirely from Europe in the absence of economic news in NZ. Expect the ECB monetary policy announcement to be closely watched on Thursday. In the lead up to this, the retail sales numbers and any developments in Italy could impact the price action.
The current interbank midrate is:    NZDEUR .6325    EURNZD 1.5810

The interbank range this week has been:    NZDEUR .6281 - .6402    EURNZD 1.5620 - 1.5921
Tuesday 26th February 3:53PM (NZT)
For the most part the last week has been one of mixed fortunes for this pair. After suffering from initial pressure following the Wheeler comments, the NZ dollar ground back to regain lost ground in the run up to the Italian elections over the last few days. The inconclusive result is certainly EURO negative, and until a clear path forward is worked out the NZD should remain up towards this higher end of the recent range. The last thing Europe needs is loose leadership in Italy at this vulnerable stage of the recovery in sentiment. The .6400 (1.5625) level has provided EURO support for the time being, but any further concerns in Italy would see pressure on this level.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
NZD/EURO .6377 .6200 .6400 .6244 - .6402
EURO/NZD 1.5681 1.5625 1.6130 1.5620 - 1.6015

Friday 22nd February 4:59PM (NZT)- Update
This pair remains contained within the wider range that it has seen over the last three months. The NZD saw solid pressure following the comments from the RBNZ Gov. Wheeler this week. However, the European economic data has seen the lost ground quickly regained by the NZ dollar and the pair remains very close to the starting levels for the week. In the short term at least, expect this rangy price action to continue. The Italian elections do pose a threat to EURO demand in the short term, but any weakness is unlikely to see the NZD break the resistance at the upper end of the range .6450 (1.5500).
The current interbank midrate is:    NZDEUR .6342    EURNZD 1.5768

The interbank range this week has been:    NZDEUR .6244 - .6384    EURNZD 1.5664 - 1.6015
Tuesday 19th February 3:50PM (NZT)
Last week saw the NZ dollar make a strong bounce higher against the EURO. The strong NZ retail sales number provided the impetus, with the weak European GDP figure aiding the move. Certainly the markets refocusing on the economic fundamentals will continue to work in the favour of the NZD for the time being. Apart from RBNZ Governor Wheeler's speech in NZ tomorrow, European news will dominate the focus this week. European manufacturing and services numbers will be closely watched, as will the economic sentiment, and business confidence numbers coming from Germany. Certainly early in 2013 looks to see a continuation of a weak economy in Europe, but the third and fourth quarters are looking more promising at this stage. Expect the pair to be contained within last week’s range this week.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
NZD/EURO .6308 .6200 .6400 .6203 -.6385
EURO/NZD 1.5853 1.5625 1.6130 1.5662 - 1.6121

Friday 15th February 6:36PM (NZT)- Update
This pair saw sideways trade for the first half of this week. Then an element of EURO vulnerability returned to the market and this accelerated overnight as the preliminary 4th quarter economic growth numbers came to light. Having broken through resistance at .6350 (1.5750 support), that level has now become support for this pair. The next few sessions will be key for the immediate direction of this pair. Further NZD demand would likely see the pair consolidate back at these higher levels. A speech by RBNZ Governor wheeler next week provides just limited focus on the NZ economy. In Europe the manufacturing and services numbers, along with the German numbers will be of primary focus for this pair.
The current interbank midrate is: NZDEUR .6364 EURNZD 1.5710
 
The interbank range this week has been: NZDEUR .6203 - .6385 EURNZD 1.5662 - 1.6121

Tuesday 12th February 5:50PM (NZT)
This pair sits at levels which are broadly unchanged from this time last week. The NZD saw pressure from the EURO following last week’s NZ employment numbers, however the bounce was sharp and impressive from the NZD, as the EURO demand gyrated following the ECB monetary policy announcement and statement. So the pair finds itself settling into the more comfortable range back from the EURO lows, seen in late 2012. Further EURO demand could take time to play out as the economic fundamentals are likely to remain subdued for quite some time yet. Expect further range trading for this pair in the short term at least.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
NZD/EURO .6239 .6150 .6350 .6158 - .6267
EURO/NZD 1.6028 1.5750 1.6260 1.5957 - 1.6239

Friday 8th February 2:36PM (NZT)- Update
It has been a week of consolidation in a new range for this pair. Certainly the EURO has lost the strong momentum it had in previous weeks. The economic realities of a stronger EURO have become a hot topic in this week, and the ECB were forced to acknowledge that it was of concern if the EURO strength was on going.  Certainly from the current levels, on any NZ dollar weakness, the .6150 (1.6260) level remains the primary target. Current levels feel comfortable for this pair, given the economic risk to the wider European recovery should the EURO see further demand. It seems likely the pair will establish itself back in the .6150- .6350 (1.5750 – 1.6260) range in the short term at least. Next week European GDP on Thursday, and NZ retail sales on Friday provide the focus.
 
The current interbank midrate is:                                             NZDEUR .6226                     EURNZD 1.6062
                                                                                         
The interbank range so far this week to date has been:  NZDEUR .6150 - .6258      EURNZD 1.5980 – 1.6260
Tuesday 5th February 6:10PM (NZT)
This pair has had an interesting last week. The NZD saw initial pressure ahead of the RBNZ monetary policy decision. However the subsequent recovery in demand NZD has curbed the EURO’s recent outperformance. In yesterday’s offshore session the jitters returned in the periphery European markets and this has enabled the NZ dollar to consolidate  off its recent lows. The question remains if there is further to go in this reversal of the recent trend. Thursday looms large for this pair, with the 4th quarter employment numbers in NZ coming ahead of the ECB monetary policy announcement in Europe. Any further NZD appreciation up towards resistance at .6350 (support 1.5750) would offer better buying of EURO’s than the good value the current levels offer.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
NZD/EURO .6241 .6150 .6350 .6120 - .6254
EURO/NZD 1.6023 1.5750 1.6260 1.5990 - 1.6340

Friday 1st February 4:55PM (NZT)
The NZ dollar has given up further ground to the EURO this week. However, it has recovered somewhat from its pre-RBNZ lows. The pair remains under what was the crucial support level at .6200 (over resistance 1.6130), and this points towards further EUR appreciation. The ECB monetary policy decision and NZ employment numbers will provide the primary focus next week. Also of considerable influence will continue to be the sentiment within European debt markets. A break of the .6100 (1.6400) levels would indicate the pair will continue to move back towards more historically average levels of .6000 (1.6660) and beyond. This will likely take time, and further EURO appreciation be harder fought from around the current levels.
 
The current interbank midrate is:                                             NZDEUR .6180                      EURNZD 1.6181
                                                                                         
The interbank range so far this week to date has been:  NZDEUR .6120 - .6264       EURNZD 1.5964 – 1.640

Tuesday 29th January 4:55PM (NZT)
The EURO has continued to see its recent resurgent demand. For the time being the support at .6150 (resistance 1.62160) has held, but this remains the target for further EURO appreciation in the short term. The NZ dollar could see increased periods of vulnerability as the RBNZ meeting approaches on Thursday. Looking ahead, it does seem like we are in the midst of a paradigm shift in sentiment for the EURO.  Whilst it will not be one way traffic, it seems like this pair is on its way back closer to more historic levels under .6000 (over 1.6660) in the coming weeks.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
NZD/EURO .6315 .6150 .6350 .6164 - .6364
EURO/NZD 1.5835 1.5750 1.6260 1.5713 - 1.6223

Friday 25th January 12:55PM (NZT)
It has been a mixed week for this pair. The continuation of the “range trading” has continued. The EURO has seen renewed demand against the NZD is the last couple of sessions which has seen the NZD give up almost all of the gains seen in this week. Expect this volatility within the contained range to continue in the short term. The improved sentiment in Europe should see the EURO creep back into favour over the medium term and this will pressure this pair back down towards more historically average levels. In the shorter term the NZ dollar should continue to be supported as the investment community chase yield throughout 2013.
 
The current interbank midrate is:                                             NZDEUR .6255                      EURNZD 1.5987
                                                                                         
The interbank range so far this week to date has been:  NZDEUR .6239 - .6344       EURNZD 1.5763 – 1.6028

Tuesday 22nd January 3:55PM (NZT)
It has been a relatively uneventful week for this pair. Last week's lower than expected NZ inflation numbers saw the NZD give up some ground to press its lows for the week, before it recovered to the current mid-range levels. Certainly the renewed EURO demand over the last couple of weeks has not relented as yet, and the ability of the likes of Spain to borrow is currently backing this up. European focus will dominate this week in the absence of any NZ economic news. German economic sentiment, manufacturing and business climate numbers will be closely watched by the market. Expect the price action to continue to rumble around within the recent and increasingly familiar range.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
NZD/EURO .6288 .6250 .6450 .6239 - .6332
EURO/NZD 1.5903 1.5500 1.6000 1.5793 - 1.6028

Tuesday 15th January 4:55PM (NZT)
For the first week of January, the NZD saw solid gains over the EURO as funds flowed from Europe in to NZD to buy NZ Government bonds. This saw the NZD appreciate by over 3.5% in a short period. Ending the rapid appreciation was the ECB monetary policy statement last week. With the ECB indicating that there is little chance of easing to the cash rate in the months, the EURO has made a solid resurgence. From current levels direction is less certain, and current rates look to offer reasonably fair value in the current environment. European and NZ inflation numbers will dominate the focus for the remainder of the week, with the European number on Wednesday being of primary focus because of New Zealand’s benign inflationary environment.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
NZD/EURO .6287 .6250 .6450 .6263 - .6443
EURO/NZD 1.5906 1.5500 1.6000 1.5520 - 1.6018

Friday 21st December 2012 2:10PM (NZT)
The NZ dollar has seen some fairly steady pressure from a resurgent EURO this week. The NZD demand seen over the last couple of weeks finally was satisfied and the pair looks to be moving back from what looked like overbought NZD levels. This week saw the weak Q3 NZ GDP numbers finally announced and although this has not materially added to the weakness. The Citibank and Rabobank reports overnight highlight the risks of Europe becoming complacent in the short term. It seems a certainty that Spain will require assistance in the new year and this would actually remove some of the risk  in the economy. So long as France can avoid being caught up with too much debt in a slow tax revenue economy in 2013, the worst must sure be past in this crisis.
 
The current interbank midrate is:                                             NZDEUR .6301                      EURNZD 1.5870
                                                                                         
The interbank range so far this week to date has been:  NZDEUR .6282 - .6449       EURNZD 1.5506 – 1.5918
Tuesday 18th December 2012 5:10PM (NZT)
The NZ dollar managed to break through resistance at .6450 (support 1.5500) last week. However, consolidation at higher levels proved a step too far as sentiment in Europe picks up following the payment of the 43 billion of aid to Greece. Peripheral member funding costs have also moved lower, indicating increasing support for the single currency. Apart from the German business sentiment number later today, the focus comes from the long awaited 3rd quarter NZ GDP number on Thursday. After the recent NZD strength, it looks like the EUR may see increasing demand into the end of the year, and current levels still offer reasonably good value buying of EURO with NZ dollars.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
NZD/EURO .6407 .6250 .6450 .6406 - .6470
EURO/NZD 1.5608 1.5500 1.6130 1.5456 - 1.5610

Tuesday 11th December 2012 3:45PM (NZT)
The New Zealand dollar outperformed the EURO throughout the course of the last week. The balanced RBNZ monetary policy statement was couple with a bias towards easing the Euro-zone cash rate from the ECB. The re-emergence of debt market concerns in Europe will also soften EURO demand. The pair current sits right on the resistance at .6450 (support 1.5500). Immediate direction from here will likely be driven by the wider market risk appetite and moves in the short term are uncertain. But given the NZ dollars strong performance of late, further gains would likely be hard fought.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
NZD/EURO .6450 .6250 .6450 .6289 - .6462
EURO/NZD 1.5504 1.5500 1.6130 1.5475 - 1.5900

Monday 3rd December 2012 4:52PM (NZT)
After seeing fairly balanced demand early last week, the NZD underperformed the EURO into the end of the week. This weakness has continued today, ahead of the Spanish and Italian manufacturing numbers later on today. Expect no change from either the RBNZ or ECB at their monetary policy announcements later in the week, albeit the accompanying statements will be closely watched. If risk aversion persists, a consolidated break of the .6250 (1.6000) level is needed for the pair to continue its move back towards more historically average levels.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
NZD/EURO .6290 .6250 .6450 .6291 - .6374
EURO/NZD 1.5898 1.5500 1.6130 1.5689 - 1.5896

Tuesday 27th November 2012 4:44 PM (NZT)
The EURO continues to exert its recent subtle pressure on the NZ dollar. Today’s somewhat positive announcement of the extension of the Greek funding package should provide a further boost to the EURO over the coming sessions. Spain will likely emerge under renewed focus in the coming weeks. Next Thursday will see both the ECB and RBNZ make monetary policy decisions, with both likely to be unchanged at this time. Given the complicated nature of the ECB operations, there announcement will be the primary focus.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
NZD/EURO .6336 .6250 .6450 .6318 - .6412
EURO/NZD 1.5783 1.5500 1.6130 1.5596 - 1.5828

Tuesday 20th November 2012 3:56 PM (NZT)
Last week revealed choppy price action for this pair. The NZ dollar started the week initially well, before the weak retail sales number completely undermined demand for the NZ dollar. Support at .6250 (resistance 1.6130) was broken, but consolidation through this level proved a step too far for the pair. As the wider market sentiment improved as positive news from the US emerged, the NZ dollar started to recover. Yesterday’s release of the strong services survey for October further boosted demand for the NZD. The pair comfortably sits within its recent range, as the EU prepare to release their latest solution for Greece. Expect the volatility to continue into the end of the year, whilst the pair could well remain contained within its wider range.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
NZD/EURO .6401 .6250 .6450 .6322 - .6460
EURO/NZD 1.5622 1.5500 1.6130 1.5480 - 1.5818

Tuesday 13th November 2012 4:55 PM (NZT)
The dramatic event for this pair last week was surprisingly provided by the NZ employment numbers. The NZ dollar saw considerable pressure following the dismal 3rd quarter data, and in the following sessions it saw the NZD lows for the week. Since then the hesitantly positive news from Greece has boosted wider market sentiment and this has enabled the NZD to take back some of its lost ground. The pair has returned back towards levels that offer reasonable value buying of EURO with NZ dollars, with the .6480 (1.5430) level likely to contain further NZ dollar appreciation in the short term. NZ retail sales numbers on Wednesday will be of note, but the real focus comes from the raft of top level economic data in Europe this week.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
NZD/EURO .6438 .6280 .6480 .6377 - .6494
EURO/NZD 1.5533 1.5430 1.5925 1.5399 - 1.5681

Entries previous to this have been deleted as there are time sensitive and lose value as time progresses. Please refer to our charts page for price action on a historical basis. The chart page can be seen here : http://www.directfx.co.nz/CurrencyChart.html