DirectFX-phone-number-and-phone-image3.gif

p_7_top.jpg

Get a free Quote

Name
Email
Phone
From CCY
To CCY
Amount
Message
please type the characters you see:
(spam filter)
spam control image
 
p_1_top.gif

Apply now

Obligation free account and currency commentary btn_apply_for.gif
p_1_bottom.gif

NZD to AUD Exchange Rate

Request an obligation free quote now

When converting New Zealand dollars (NZD) to Australian dollars (AUD), or AUD to NZD, by exchanging via Direct FX, you will save a significant amount of money. Our wholesale currency exchange rates for money transfers, are significantly more competitive than bank foreign exchange rates. Being Australasian based, we specialise in knowing what drives NZD and AUD currency conversion rates.

NZD to AUD Overview: Australia is New Zealands biggest trading partner. Therefore the performance of the New Zealand economy and the NZD, is closely linked to the Australian economy and AUD. Due to this extremely close correlation, when compared to other currency pairs, the NZD to AUD exchange rate remains one of the most stable. More often than not, it is the interest rate differential between the two countries, that dictate the prevailing NZD to AUD exchange rate. 
 
Historical Ranges: 1 year  5 years 10 years 
NZD AUD .9067 - .9760 .7642 - .9974 .7242 - .9974
AUD NZD 1.0246 - 1.1029 1.0026 - 1.3086 1.0026 - 1.3808

Current Official Cash Rates:
Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ): 1.75%         Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA): 1.50%

NZD AUD Weekly Updates:                                                                                Back to FX Updates
Tuesday 25th July 1:00pm(NZT)

One of the most surprising aspects about last week's price action was the strength of the bounce the New Zealand dollar made of its 0.9222 low (1.0844 high) against its Australian cousin. The NZDAUD bounced in quick fashion all the way to 0.9429 (1.0606), before the recovery eventually ran out of steam. Positive comments from Finance Minister Joyce certainly helped the move and it now leaves near term direction a little undecided. We do favour the downside been tested again over the coming week, but after such a strong recovery sellers will be a little more cautious. I would expect resistance around 0.9460 (support around 1.0571)  to cap and further attempts to rally over the course of this week, that is assuming we don’t get a negative surprise from Australian inflation data on Wednesday. That data will be the highlight from an otherwise light economic calendar.

  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
NZD/AUD 0.9379 0.9220 0.9460 0.9222 - 0.9424
AUD/NZD 1.0062 1.0571 1.0846 1.0611 - 1.0844

Friday 21th July 1:00 pm(NZT)
For much of this week the New Zealand dollar has simply been outperformed by its Australian cousin. Upbeat RBA minutes have combined with a solid Australian employment report to underwrite the Australian dollar’s gains. The pair traded to a low of 0.9222 in the immediate aftermath of yesterday’s jobs data, although that was short lived. Last night the NZD managed to claw back some if its losses against the AUD and we currently trade around the 0.9300 level. It’s far from a major reversal at this stage however, and the risks are skewed toward a renewal of the downtrend over the coming sessions. That being said, our view is that the pair could easily make a medium term low somewhere between 0.9100 and 0.9200 so we’re not getting too carried away with expectations for wholesale declines from here.
The current interbank midrate is:    NZDAUD 0.9309    AUDNZD 1.0743

The interbank range this week has been:    NZDAUD 0.9222 - 0.9466    AUDNZD 1.0564 - 1.0844
Tuesday 18th July 1:00pm(NZT)

The Australian dollar outperformed the New Zealand dollar last week helping to drive the cross rate down to the 0.9380 level, where it traded for much of yesterday. This morning however the NZD has been dealt a significant blow with softer than forecast inflation data hitting the wires and that’s seen the cross trade to a low of 0.9320 so far. The focus remains on the downside and a test of support around 0.9300. That may contain this initial bout of weakness, but if tonight’s dairy auction also produces a negative surprise, we can expect a break below that level. In that case the target would quickly move to 0.9100.

  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
NZD/AUD 0.9335 0.9300 0.9500 0.9323 - 0.9542
AUD/NZD 1.0712 1.0526 1.0753 1.0480 - 1.0726
 
Friday 14th July 12:00pm(NZT)
The New Zealand dollar has been outperformed by its Australian cousin this week and that’s pushed the cross rate back down below 0.9500 (above 1.0526). The Australian dollar has actually been the standout performer over recent days helped by some better than forecast data and rising gold prices. I suspect however the much of the recent gains in the AUD are been driven by changing interest rate expectations. Forecasters who had been suggesting the next rate move from the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) was likely to be an interest rate cut, are now revising their outlook to are more stable interest rate forecast and the currency is therefore getting revalued on that basis. We continue to believe that selling into any NZDAUD strength is right play. The broad parameters of 0.9100 to 0.9600 should continue to contain the pair over the coming months.
The current interbank midrate is:    NZDAUD 0.9466    AUDNZD 1.0564

The interbank range this week has been:    NZDAUD 0.9438 - 0.9618    AUDNZD 1.0398 - 1.0596
Tuesday 11th July 1:00pm(NZT)

The past month has seen the New Zealand dollar trapped within a 0.9480 to 0.9650 (1.0550 to 1.0363) range against its Australian cousin. The market is currently sitting bang in the middle of the range around 0.9565 (1.0455). We favour selling into strength for the pair as we don’t think interest rate differentials justify a move above the 0.9650 (1.0363) area. Both central banks are on hold until next year, when we believe they will both eventually hike rates. We believe a move back below 0.9300 (above 1.0753) holds a much greater probability than a move above 0.9700 (below 1.0309).

  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
NZD/AUD 0.9531 0.9480 0.9650 0.9477 - 0.9618
AUD/NZD 1.0492 1.0363 1.0550 1.0398 - 1.0552

Friday 7th July 4:30pm(NZT)
This pair has ended the week better than we expected with the New Zealand dollar now knocking on the door of 0.9600 thanks to the RBA earlier in the week. A look at 0.9650 later next week might be possible but we continue to feel these levels won’t be sustained.
The current interbank midrate is:    NZDAUD 0.9601    AUDNZD 1.0415

The interbank range this week has been:    NZDAUD 0.9477 - 0.9618    AUDNZD 1.0398 - 1.0552
Tuesday 4th July 4:30pm(NZT)

Now around 0.9480 and looks as if a test of 0.9450 might be on the cards for the NZDAUD. We expect the RBA to hold firm, but the wording of the statement will be closely examined for any hint of a change towards a hawkish tone.

  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
NZD/AUD 0.9500 0.9450 0.9560 0.9477 - 0.9629
AUD/NZD 1.0526 1.0460 1.0582 1.0385 - 1.0552

Friday 30th June 3:30pm(NZT)
The NZD ends the week lower on against the Australian dollar. It is down around 0.9498 after being up at 0.9630 earlier. A break of 0.9480 would portend for lower moves but should initially hold at 0.9450.
The current interbank midrate is:    NZDAUD 0.9518    AUDNZD 1.0507

The interbank range this week has been:    NZDAUD 0.9492 - 0.9633    AUDNZD 1.0381 - 1.0535
Tuesday 27th June 4:00pm(NZT)

The New Zealand dollar looks solid against its Australian cousin. Currently around 0.9610 after a 0.9635 high last week. Any push lower would find initial support at 0.9560 but look for consolidation around either side of the 0.9600 level for the next couple of days.

  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
NZD/AUD 0.9596 0.9560 0.9635 0.9516 - 0.9641
AUD/NZD 1.0421 1.0378 1.0460 1.0373 - 1.0509

Tuesday 20th June 3:30pm(NZT)

The NZD is hanging onto the AUD 0.9500 level by its fingernails, has bounced back from 0.9482 last week and is currently at 0.9522, should hold around this level unless the RBNZ rhetoric is overly negative to the NZD on Thursday. The fundamentals are still supportive of the NZD.

  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
NZD/AUD 0.9519 0.9500 0.9615 0.9477 - 0.9601
AUD/NZD 1.0506 1.0400 1.0526 1.0415 - 1.0551

Friday 16th June 8:45pm(NZT)
Softer than expected NZ GDP data combined with a positive Australian employment report yesterday to pressure this pair. The New Zealand dollar has spent close to two weeks ranging above 0.9500 (below 1.0526) but yesterday's data seems to have dealt it a significant blow. A period of Australian dollar outperformance may well push the pair back down toward 0.9400 (up toward 1.0638) over the coming week. Key resistance comes in around 0.9525 (support 1.0500) and while below that level the risk are skewed to the downside for the pair.
The current interbank midrate is:    NZDAUD 0.9499    AUDNZD 1.0528

The interbank range this week has been:    NZDAUD 0.9477 - 0.9601    AUDNZD 1.0415 - 1.0551
Tuesday 13th June 4:00pm(NZT)

The New Zealand dollar is again easier on this cross as the AUD has regained some ground over the past week. Itis now at 0.9544 after a low yesterday of 0.9517. while we have not discounted another move back over 0.9600 it’s now hard to see this occurring ahead of the US Fed statement on Thursday. Solid resistance just above 0.9600 should keep a cap on the pair in the near term.

  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
NZD/AUD 0.9550 0.9500 0.9615 0.9509 - 0.9595
AUD/NZD 1.0471 1.0400 1.0526 1.0422 - 1.0516

Thursday 8th June 4:00pm(NZT)
The New Zealand dollar has pulled back a little on this cross as AUD data has not been as bad as expected and the RBA remains positive on growth. Now trading at 0.9540 after Monday’s 0.9610 high, but we look for another push over 0.9600 early next week.
The current interbank midrate is:    NZDAUD 0.9536    AUDNZD 1.0487

The interbank range this week has been:    NZDAUD 0.9509 - 0.9623    AUDNZD 1.0392 - 1.0516
Tuesday 6th June 4:00pm(NZT)

The New Zealand dollar continues to outperform it’s Australian cousin. Now trading at 0.9560 after the weaker Aussie current account data earlier this afternoon, it made a high of 0.9615 on Friday and given the softer Aussie data if tomorrow's Q1 GDP weakens look for a retest of resistance at 0.9615 then 0.9625.

  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
NZD/AUD 0.9568 0.9500 0.9615 0.9470 - 0.9623
AUD/NZD 1.0451 1.0400 1.0526 1.0392 - 1.0559

Friday 2nd June 4:45pm(NZT)
The New Zealand dollar has been dominant on this cross breaking into the 0.9500 region and pulling up to a high of 0.9574 after yesterday’s Chinese data knocked the Aussie. It is possible for a move into the 0.9600 level, but the air is pretty thin for the NZD at these levels and next week’s RBA comments will be critical for future direction.
The current interbank midrate is:    NZDAUD 0.9567    AUDNZD 1.0453

The interbank range this week has been:    NZDAUD 0.9437 - 0.9581    AUDNZD 1.0437 - 1.0597
Tuesday 30th May 4:15pm(NZT)

The New Zealand dollar continues to outperform the AUD, making a 0.9524 high last night, the highest level in 3 months. It has eased back to the 0.9490 level but looks to have good support and we expect consolidation around current levels before another push towards 0.9525. NZ fundamentals remain supportive and outweigh the more negative Aussie economic fundamentals. Further detrimental Chinese data will weaken the AUD on this cross.

  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
NZD/AUD 0.9487 0.9400 0.9525 0.9355 - 0.9531
AUD/NZD 1.0541 1.0498 1.0638 1.0492 - 1.0690

Friday 26th May 12:45pm(NZT)
The New Zealand dollar has had a solid week against its Australian cousin. The pair has rallied from last Friday’s low of 0.9247 (1.0823) to trade to a high last night of 0.9439 (1.0594). Solid NZ fundamentals have underpinned the move, but the Australian dollar has also suffered on the back of soft commodities and Moody’s downgrade of China. While the focus remains on the NZD topside for now, the pair is finding gains above 0.9400 (1.0638) much harder fought. We expect this to continue and those looking to purchase AUD should look at current levels as a good opportunity to start averaging in. The next key resistance level comes in around 0.9460 (1.0571) and this will prove very difficult for the pair to overcome.
The current interbank midrate is:    NZDAUD 0.9407    AUDNZD 1.0630

The interbank range this week has been:    NZDAUD 0.9247 - 0.9439    AUDNZD 1.0594 - 1.0815
Tuesday 23rd May 4:15pm(NZT)

The New Zealand dollar opens the week back over the 0.9300 level up at 0.9346 against its Australian cousin. If it can consolidate around these levels we look for a move to the 0.9400/20 level over the week as NZ fundamentals still outperform those of Aussie.

  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
NZD/AUD 0.9354 0.9300 0.9400 0.9247 - 0.9377
AUD/NZD 1.0690 1.0638 1.0753 1.0664 - 1.0664

Friday 19th May 4:15pm(NZT)
The New Zealand dollar continues to struggle against the AUD. It has been back to 0.9340/45 but can’t hold over 0.9300 for any period of time. We favour buying dips just on the positive NZ fundamentals but if it continues below 0.9300 look for an extension lower.
The current interbank midrate is:    NZDAUD 0.9268    AUDNZD 1.0790

The interbank range this week has been:    NZDAUD 0.9254 - 0.9350    AUDNZD 1.0695 - 1.0806
Tuesday 16th May 4:15pm(NZT)

The New Zealand dollar has had trouble recovering on this cross after the RBNZ statement last Thursday. It’s now at 0.9290 and given the weaker Australian dollar tone it should push through 0.9300 back to the 0.9320/30 level in the next day or so. Buying into dips is the favoured play for now.

  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
NZD/AUD 0.9291 0.9250 0.9400 0.9254 - 0.9424
AUD/NZD 1.0763 1.0638 1.0811 1.0612 - 1.0806

Friday 12th May 4:15pm(NZT)
After being up at 0.9420 before the RBNZ statement, the New Zealand dollar fell to 0.9290, is now down at 0.9256 and appears to have got some buying support. We still favour the NZD’s better economics to push it back towards 0.9350 and above next week.
The current interbank midrate is:    NZDAUD 0.9266    AUDNZD 1.0792

The interbank range this week has been:    NZDAUD 0.9255 - 0.9424    AUDNZD 1.0612 - 1.0805
Tuesday 9th May 8:15pm(NZT)
The Aussie budget should not have much effect on the Australian dollar. We still favour New Zealand dollar fundamentals holding the kiwi stronger on this cross. A break over 0.9400 looks likely over the next few days.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
NZD/AUD 0.9381 0.9300 0.9400 0.9165 - 0.9393
AUD/NZD 1.0660 1.0638 1.0753 1.0646 - 1.0911

Friday 5th May 3:45pm(NZT)
Both the New Zealand dollar and Aussie dollar have suffered on the commodity sell off. The cross is currently at 0.9268 after a low this week of 0.9137, with iron prices lower again the NZD is favoured on this cross and we look for a move back over 0.9300 next week.
The current interbank midrate is:    NZDAUD 0.9278    AUDNZD 1.0778

The interbank range this week has been:    NZDAUD 0.9145 - 0.9286    AUDNZD 1.0769 - 1.0935
Tuesday 2nd May 7:15pm(NZT)
The New Zealand dollar has bounced back against the Australian dollar after a 0.9145 low last night. It is now trading at 0.9185 vs AUD with potential to push back over 0.9200. Today’s RBA statement may provide direction for such a move. We see the risks for the pair now back on the topside.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
NZD/AUD 0.9174 0.9100 0.9200 0.9145 - 0.9254
AUD/NZD 1.0899 1.0989 1.0869 1.0806 - 1.0935

Friday 21st April 11:40am(NZT)
The New Zealand dollar has had a strong week against its Australian cousin, continuing the broad recovery from the sub 0.9100 lows in Mid-March. We expect the NZDAUD to grind its way higher toward 0.9500 over the coming weeks. Stronger than forecasted NZ inflation data yesterday certainly helped the NZD, although overnight the currency has given back a large part of those gains. Immediate support comes in around 0.9280 and while above that level the focus remains on the topside.
The current interbank midrate is:    NZDAUD 0.9290    AUDNZD 1.0764

The interbank range this week has been:    NZDAUD 0.9229 - 0.9394    AUDNZD 1.0645 - 1.0835
Tuesday 18th April 7:15pm(NZT)
The New Zealand dollar struggled to kick on with gains against its Australian cousin last week as resistance ahead of the 0.9300 level capped the topside. A very strong Australian employment number on Thursday then drove the pair down to the weeks low at 0.9210. The NZD has recovered to now trade around 0.9250, but last week's failure on the topside would suggest further gains will be limited in the near term. Look for further ranging between 0.9200 and 0.9300 unless we get a big surprise from this week's diary action or NZ inflation.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
NZD/AUD 0.9273 0.9200 0.9300 0.9219-0.9289
AUD/NZD 1.0784 1.0725 1.0869 1.0765 - 1.0847
 
Tuesday 11th April 4:15pm(NZT)
The New Zealand dollar continues to hold firm against its Australian cousin. It’s currently trading around 0.9260 after an overnight high of 0.9282. Poor Aussie jobs data on Thursday could push this cross to 0.9300 and above. We continue to see the risks as skewed to the topside for this pairing.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
NZD/AUD 0.9265 0.9200 0.9300 0.9175-0.9290
AUD/NZD 1.0790 1.0799 1.0869 1.0764 - 1.0899
 
Friday 7th April 4:50pm(NZT)
The New Zealand dollar has ground higher over the last week as the Australian dollar is hit by weaker fundamentals and RBA concerns. It is up nearly 100 pips at 0.9250 since the start of the week. A break of 0.9260 looks imminent which would then target 0.9300.
The current interbank midrate is:    NZDAUD 0.9248    AUDNZD 1.0813

The interbank range this week has been:    NZDAUD 0.9120 - 0.9263    AUDNZD 1.0796 - 1.0965
Tuesday 4th April 7:15pm(NZT)
Currently at 0.9230 after lows around 0.9110 last week. Given the weaker tone to the Australian economy we expect this cross to perform in the New Zealand dollars favour in the short term. Today’s RBA statement has potential to see this cross run to a test of last week’s highs around the 0.9260 level.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
NZD/AUD 0.9196 0.9100 0.9260 0.9119-0.9248
AUD/NZD 1.0874 1.0799 1.09899 1.0814 - 1.0967

Friday 31st March 1:00pm(NZT)
The New Zealand dollar was trading round 0.9250 AUD only 3 days ago, but since then we’ve seen a sharp turnaround and the pair is now testing 0.9150. There hasn’t been anything fundamental to drive the move, with little in the way of key data released from either country this week, and as such we suspect support around the 0.9100 level will continue to contain the weakness. That being said, it looks like the pair may well test that level over the coming days. Next weeks should provide more lead in terms of economic data with Australian retails sales, the RBA rate meeting, and another Global Dairy Auction to digest.
The current interbank midrate is:    NZDAUD 09152    AUDNZD 1.0926

The interbank range this week has been:    NZDAUD 0.9137 - 0.9264    AUDNZD 1.0794 - 1.0945
Tuesday 28th March 4:15pm(NZT)
The New Zealand dollar is still outperforming the Australian dollar on this cross. After an overnight high of 0.9258 it is back at 0.9225 but looks to have another test of the 0.9290 level. If broken an extension to 0.9350 is possible but this would rely on continuing weak metal prices.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
NZD/AUD 0.9227 0.9200 0.9270 0.9115-0.9264
AUD/NZD 1.0838 1.0787 1.0869 1.0794 - 1.0971

Friday 24th March 3:00pm(NZT)
The New Zealand dollar continues to grind higher against the Australian dollar coming from a low of 0.9106 3 days ago to 0.9231 overnight. Is now back at 0.9205 and looks set to move higher next week as the weaker iron ore price knocks the AUD. However both currencies remain at risk from USD volatility.
The current interbank midrate is:    NZDAUD 0.9197    AUDNZD 1.0874

The interbank range this week has been:    NZDAUD 0.9088 - 0.9238    AUDNZD 1.0825 - 1.1003
Tuesday 21st March 4:15pm(NZT)
The New Zealand dollar has had a better few days against the Australian dollar. It’s currently at 0.9130 after a low last week of 0.9066, above the 0.9050 support.  Immediate resistance is now at 0.9140. Tomorrow's GlobalDairy result could see some NZD downside if prices disappoint.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
NZD/AUD 0.9132 0.9050 0.9180 0.9074-0.9168
AUD/NZD 1.0950 1.0893 1.1050 1.0908 - 1.1021

Friday 17th March 4:00pm(NZT)
The New Zealand dollar has tracked lower against the Australian dollar all week. It started at 0.9183 and is now around 0.9084, having made a low for the week of 0.9066. The bad NZ GDP data was somewhat balanced out by weaker Aussie jobs data, but it is the NZD that continues to struggle, next stop 0.9050.
The current interbank midrate is:    NZDAUD 0.9097    AUDNZD 1.0993

The interbank range this week has been:    NZDAUD 0.9074 - 0.9206    AUDNZD 1.0862 - 1.1021
Tuesday 14th March 3:45pm(NZT)
The New Zealand dollar continues to struggle against the Australian dollar. It’s now at 0.9150 after a 0.9125 low yesterday. The AUD remains supported by continued firm commodity prices, 0.9080 is next major support level but given the drop over the last week an NZD rebound to the 0.9225/50 level should not be discounted.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
NZD/AUD 0.9150 0.9080 0.9225 0.9134-0.9222
AUD/NZD 1.0929 1.0840 1.1013 1.0843 - 1.0948

Friday 10th March 4:00pm(NZT)
Another bad week for the New Zealand dollar on this cross, dropping from 0.9270 at the beginning of the week to a low of 0.9152. It is now back at 0.9180 and looks to have stabilised, a move back initially to 0.9225 looks possible but both currencies are overshadowed by US NF-Payrolls and the FOMC meeting next week. We favour a small retracement next week to the 0.9250/0.93 level.
The current interbank midrate is:    NZDAUD 0.9180    AUDNZD 1.0894

The interbank range this week has been:    NZDAUD 0.9152 - 0.9333    AUDNZD 1.0715 - 1.0926
Tuesday 7th March 3:45pm(NZT)
The New Zealand dollar continues to weaken against the Australian dollar and is now at 0.9210 with next stop around 0.9195. It continues to look soft against the AUD given the change of stance between the two Central banks, if the RBA is at all hawkish this afternoon look for further weakness in the NZDAUD cross.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
NZD/AUD 0.9216 0.9195 0.9270 0.9204-0.9417
AUD/NZD 1.0851 1.0787 1.0875 1.0619 - 1.0864

Friday 3rd March 4:15pm(NZT)
The New Zealand dollar has struggled against the Aussie all week pushing against support at 0.9280 (1.0775). However, a surprise bad Aussie trade figure yesterday saw this cross back to the 0.9320/30 (1.0718) level. Both currencies were hit hard overnight by the USD surge but this cross has only marginally weakened and is now at 0.9315 (1.0735). Look for another test of the 0.9280/85 level next week but if this is not broken a bounce to the 0.9400 (1.0638) level may ensure.
The current interbank midrate is:    NZDAUD 0.9323    AUDNZD 1.0727

The interbank range this week has been:    NZDAUD 0.9289 - 0.9417    AUDNZD 1.0619 - 1.0766
Tuesday 28th February 7:45pm(NZT)
Currently around 0.9350 after a 0.9294 low last week, This pair has spent most of the time around the 0.9340-0.9380 level. There is little clear direction however as most of the focus is on US movements. We still favour the New Zealand dollar on this cross and look for a move back over 0.9405 to test resistance at the 0.9430 level. We are unlikely to see much movement in the next few days as market attention remains focused on the USD.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
NZD/AUD 0.9345 0.9320 0.9405 0.9304-0.9399
AUD/NZD 1.0701 1.0633 1.0730 1.0639 - 1.0748

Friday 24th February 2:45pm(NZT)
For much of the past week the New Zealand dollar was on the back foot versus its Australia cousin. Support around the 0.9320 (1.0730) level was repeatedly tested and for a time yesterday it looked like the market may have made a solid break below there. But the release of disappointing Australian Private Capital Expenditure data yesterday turned the pair around and a quick rally to 0.9370 (1.0672) has alleviated the immediate downside pressure, at least for the time being. It’s too early to get bullish on the pair though, with key resistance around 0.9405 (1.0633) yet to be tested. It will take a move above that level to significantly brighten the outlook and open the way for a return toward 0.9500 (1.0526) and possible higher.
The current interbank midrate is:    NZDAUD 0.9371    AUDNZD 1.0672

The interbank range this week has been:    NZDAUD 0.9304 - 0.9390    AUDNZD 1.0650 - 1.0748
Tuesday 21st February 6:45pm(NZT)
The New Zealand dollar has drifted lower against the United States dollar today and currently sits around 0.7160.  If 0.7150 breaks look for a test of 0.7100 Wednesday’s global dairy auction should provide some support if prices remain firm but as always the USD reigns on this cross aAfter opening around 0.9348 this morning the New Zealand dollar has tracked lower against the Australian dollar, currently at 0.9321. Immediate support is at 0.9300 with further support at 0.9275. Given the more positive news and reports around the Australian economy and continuing firm commodity prices there is potential for a move towards the 0.9200 level over the next week.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
NZD/AUD 0.9323 0.9275 0.9350 0.9326-0.9402
AUD/NZD 1.0726 1.0695 1.0781 1.0636 - 1.0723

Friday 17th February 4:30pm(NZT)
Another week of New Zealand dollar weakness against the Australian dollar as better emerging economic fundamentals and continuing firm iron ore and gold prices continue to support the AUD. It has traded in a narrow range of the week and we favour consolidation around current levels heading into next week.
The current interbank midrate is:    NZDAUD 0.9537    AUDNZD 1.0687

The interbank range this week has been:    NZDAUD 0.9339 - 0.9423    AUDNZD 1.0612 - 1.0707
Tuesday 14th February 4:45pm(NZT)
New Zealand dollar continues to underperform against the Australian dollar, now trading around 0.9363 (1.0680). Better GDP forecasts from the RBA and diminished chances of another AUD rate cut have given the Australian dollar a leg up on this cross. Minor support is at 0.9334 (1.0713) then 0.9280 (1.0661)
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
NZD/AUD 0.9355 0.9280 0.9430 0.9368-0.9630
AUD/NZD 1.0689 1.0526 1.0661 1.0384 - 1.0675

Friday 10th February 6:30pm(NZT)
New Zealand dollar knocked back on this cross to 0.9398 (1.0640) after the RBNZ statement yesterday, is now back at 0.9418 (1.0618) against the Australian dollar. In  the latest set of forecasts released today the RBA predicted growth to rise to around 3% in the December 2017 year, up from 2% in the June 2017 year. Immediate downside is 0.9398 (1.0641)with next line of support around 0.9375 (1.0666).
The current interbank midrate is:    NZDAUD 0.9405    AUDNZD 1.0633

The interbank range this week has been:    NZDAUD 0.9414 - 0.9629    AUDNZD 1.0385 - 1.0622
Tuesday 7th February 4:45pm(NZT)
New Zealand dollar continues to recover on this cross after last week’s good Aussie trade data initially pushed it lower.  It now trades back at 0.9620 (1.0395) in the wake of stronger NZ inflation expectations data this afternoon. The RBA statement set for release soon will now provide focus. We also have a dairy auction tonight and then the RBNZ statement on Thursday morning. For the time being the pair looks likely to remain in a board 0.9450-0.9650 (1.0582-1.0362) range, however offshore moves still dictate direction.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
NZD/AUD 0.9623 0.9450 0.9650 0.9498-0.9683
AUD/NZD 1.0393 1.0363 1.0582 1.0327 - 1.0529
 
Friday 3rd February 4:30pm(NZT)
Choppy trading on this cross over the later part of the week, as New Zealand dollar strength gave way after much better than expected Australian trade surplus figures.  This instigated a drop from 0.9675 (1.0336) to 0.9501 (1.0525) in a matter of two days. This cross is now around 0.9518 (1.0506) and looks to be consolidating as we head into the close of the week. Next week will see the RBA policy decision, but given that an unchanged verdict is expected we see further consolidation at the current lower levels….offshore actions will hold sway.
The current interbank midrate is:    NZDAUD 0.9514    AUDNZD 1.0511

The interbank range this week has been:    NZDAUD 0.9511 - 0.9683    AUDNZD 1.0327 - 1.0514
Tuesday 31st January 4:45pm(NZT)
The New Zealand dollar continues to hold firm on this cross and with a continuation of disappointing Australian data we expect this trend to continue. Is currently trading around the 0.9635 level after an overnight range of 0.9592-0.9642 (1.0425-1.0371). Immediate resistance is at 0.9645 (1.0368) then 0.9665 (1.0346) then 0.9730 (1.0277). Both the New Zealand and Australian dollars will be vulnerable to the US data this week and we expect New Zealand rises to be capped around the 0.9665 (1.0346) for the next few days.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
NZD/AUD 0.9543 0.9580 0.9645 0.9680-0.9550
AUD/NZD 1.0384 1.0368 1.0438 1.0361 - 1.0491

Friday 27th January 3:30pm(NZT)
The New Zealand dollar has been the outperformer on this cross this week. Especially given the two different directions this week's CPI data for Aussie & NZ have headed. The New Zealand dollar has eased off the 0.9650 ish (1.0362) highs and looks as it will end the week around the current 0.9615 (1.0400) region. We favour another grind higher into the 0.9670-80 (1.034-1.033) region over the next week but there is solid resistance at the 0.9700 (1.0309) level.
The current interbank midrate is:    NZDAUD 0.9616    AUDNZD 1.0400

The interbank range this week has been:    NZDAUD 0.9474 - 0.9652    AUDNZD 1.0361 - 1.0555
Tuesday 24th January 6:15pm(NZT)
The new Zealand dollar continues to trade around the 0.9540 (1.0482) and remains well supported on this cross, although the firmer metals prices have helped the Australian dollar, the continuing solid Global Dairy auction results have been New Zealand dollar supportive balancing the equation and leaving the other factors such as interest rate differentials and economic data to tilt the balance in the New Zealand dollar’s favour.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
NZD/AUD 0.9543 0.9400 0.9685 0.9463 - 0.9559
AUD/NZD 1.0479 1.0325 1.0638 1.0462 - 1.0568

Friday 20th January 1:30pm(NZT)
There has been little in the way of overall direction for this pair over the past few weeks. The New Zealand dollar seems comfortable trading around the 0.9500 level  (1.0526) against its Australian cousin. Dips toward 0.9400 (rallies toward 1.0638) are find buyers and hence support, while those looking to sell NZD seem to be targeting levels around 0.9600 (1.0417) and up. The leaves the pair range bound between the broad parameters of 0.9400 and 0.9600 (1.0638 and 1.0417) and we suspect that will continue for much of next week. Inflation data from both New Zealand and Australia next week will be closely watched and has the potential to provide some much needed direction.
The current interbank midrate is:    NZDAUD 0.9504    AUDNZD 1.0522

The interbank range this week has been:    NZDAUD 0.9465 - 0.9554    AUDNZD 1.0467 - 1.0566
Tuesday 17th January 2:15pm(NZT)
The New Zealand dollar traded in a narrow 0.9475-0.9515 (1.0554-1.0509) range against the Australian dollar overnight. It opens around 0.9495 and with the NZD holding firm and the AUD in a consolidative phase a move in this cross towards the 0.9550 is possible, look for Australian jobs data and Chinese GDP later in the week to provide direction for any such move.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
NZD/AUD 0.9495 0.9434 0.9524 0.9459 - 0.9555
AUD/NZD 1.0531 1.0500 1.0600 1.0466 - 1.0572

Friday 13th January 6:30pm(NZT)
The New Zealand dollar continues to strengthen against the Australian dollar, with an overnight range of 0.9469-0.9519 (1.0560-1.0505) , is now at 0.9490 but we look for a push onto the 0.9569 area given Australia’s sensitivity to adverse China news and the possible credit rating downgrade…if this level breaks the 0.9650 will beckon.
The current interbank midrate is:    NZDAUD 0.9488    AUDNZD 1.0538

The interbank range this week has been:    NZDAUD 0.9459 - 0.9590    AUDNZD 1.0427 - 1.0572
Tuesday 10th January 4:00pm(NZT)
The New Zealand dollar traded higher overnight form 0.9505 to 0.9546 (1.0520-1.0475). It’s currently trading around 0.9535 (1.0487) and we look for a push towards the 0.9600 (1.0416) level over the next few days. If the rumoured downgrade to Australia's AAA credit rating eventuates the Aussie will come under pressure across the board with this cross having the potential to then threaten 0.9650 levels.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
NZD/AUD 0.9532 0.9425 0.9700 0.9508 - 0.9656
AUD/NZD 1.0491 1.0309 1.0610 1.0356 - 1.0518

Friday 23rd December 3:45am(NZT)
The New Zealand dollar has lifted marginally against the Australian dollar in trade since our report on Tuesday. Data this week has conformed close enough to expectations to see the cross trade within recent ranges. Fresh economic leads are lacking over the holiday period which will mean liquidity and flow in the NZD and AUD will drive trade. We have mixed expectations given the low momentum so would look to take advantage of spikes to cover requirements. Key resistance is eyed at .9635 (1.0379) whilst first notable support is seen ahead of .9400 (1.0638).
The current interbank midrate is:    NZDAUD 0.9570    AUDNZD 1.0449

The interbank range this week has been:    NZDAUD 0.9519 - 0.9582    AUDNZD 1.0436 - 1.0505
Tuesday 20th December 1:30pm(NZT)
The New Zealand dollar has side-tracked in trade against the Australian dollar since our report on Friday. With little in the way of fresh leads the lack of volatility was to be expected although a jump from Friday’s lows (.9530, 1.0493) was seen in opening trade yesterday (as the AUD fell on iron ore and budget/AAA rating concerns). Focus for this week starts with today’s RBA minutes whilst in NZ leads come via tonight’s dairy auction and Thursday’s GDP data. We lack a strong bias at current levels and see range trading as being quite likely should the data conform to expectations.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
NZD/AUD 0.9548 0.9525 0.9635 0.9528 - 0.9637
AUD/NZD 1.0473 1.0379 1.0499 1.0376 - 1.0495

Friday 16th December 11:45am(NZT)
Solid demand for the Australian dollar against the New Zealand dollar around .9630/35 (1.0384/1.0379) continued in trade this week. Better than expected Australian employment data released yesterday has seen the cross ease from those levels in recent hours. This level is forming a considerable barrier to any further gains to the upside and should again invite good selling next week. The main events to consider during the week are the RBA minutes on Tuesday and NZ GDP data on Thursday. We favour buying the AUD over the NZD ahead of this week’s cross highs again next week.
The current interbank midrate is:    NZDAUD 0.9559    AUDNZD 1.0461

The interbank range this week has been:    NZDAUD 0.9549 - 0.9638    AUDNZD 1.0376 - 1.0473
Tuesday 13th December 2:30pm(NZT)
The New Zealand dollar has eased slightly against the Australian dollar since our report on Friday. Lows around the .9560 (1.0460 highs) level have been seen in the interim. We expect the cross to stabilize until Thursday and be bounded ahead of solid resistance in the .9635/50 zone (1.0379/1.0363 support) until Thursday’s key data on NZ GDP and Australian employment. We lack any clear bias on the next shift. Thursday’s earlier (NZ time) US Fed decision could also incite some volatility.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
NZD/AUD 0.9597 0.9560 0.9635 0.9529 - 0.9634
AUD/NZD 1.0420 1.0379 1.0460 1.0380 - 1.0494

Friday 9th December 11:15am(NZT)
The New Zealand dollar is trading higher against the Australian dollar since our report on Tuesday. Weaker than expected Australian GDP data pressured the cross during the week, although key resistance at .9600 (1.0417 support) broke yesterday without the aid of any fresh key economic data (the Australian trade data was worse than expected however). Thursday is the key day to watch next week for fresh economic leads (NZ GDP and AU employment). Next resistance is eyed at .9650 (1.0363 support) and .9700 (1.0309 support). Support is seen around .9530 initially (1.0493 resistance).
The current interbank midrate is:    NZDAUD 0.9611    AUDNZD 1.0405

The interbank range this week has been:    NZDAUD 0.9508 - 0.9636    AUDNZD 1.0378 - 1.0517
Tuesday 6th December 2:30pm(NZT)
The New Zealand dollar is sitting marginally lower in trade against the Australian dollar since our report on Thursday. Lows around .9510 (1.0515 highs) were seen in overnight trade and the cross did undergo a decent shift lower on the news of NZ PM Key’s resignation yesterday. This week could be busy for the cross with the RBA later today (expect no change) and Australian GDP tomorrow. We lack any real bias at current levels, although continue to see levels around .9600 (1.0417) as a decent area for short term AUD needs.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
NZD/AUD 0.9569 0.9510 0.9600 0.9445 - 0.9602
AUD/NZD 1.0451 1.0417 1.0515 1.0415 - 1.0587

Thursday 1st December 2:00pm(NZT)
The New Zealand dollar has significantly outperformed in trade against the Australian dollar this week. The extent of the move has surprised and reflects the poor performance of the AUD and relative demand for the NZD over the week. Negative sentiment around the Australian construction and building/property sector may also have contributed, although would not normally be associated with the size of shift seen in the cross this week. Levels look appealing to AUD buyers at present. Resistance is nearby around .9600 (1.0417 support) and then .9645 (1.0368 support).
The current interbank midrate is:    NZDAUD 0.9587    AUDNZD 1.0431

The interbank range this week has been:    NZDAUD 0.9425 - 0.9602    AUDNZD 1.0415 - 1.0611
Tuesday 29th November 3:30pm(NZT)
The New Zealand dollar is trading largely unchanged against the Australian dollar since our report on Friday. With little to go on in the way of fresh influence ranges have been understandably contained in recent hours (~.9425-.9490/1.0537-1.0610).This week is looking likely to be another week of relatively contained trade given the data calendar due, although the OPEC result could see volatility pick-up. We lack any bias overall which points investors towards taking advantage of the extremes in the above range to cover their needs.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
NZD/AUD 0.9444 0.9370 0.9600 0.9425 - 0.9586
AUD/NZD 1.0588 1.0417 1.0672 1.0432 - 1.0611

Friday 25th November 2:30pm(NZT)
The New Zealand dollar has fallen away sharply in trade against the Australian dollar since Tuesday. The move unwinds much of last week’s surprisingly strong gains and comes on the back of solid gains in many $AUD sensitive commodity prices, and on a reduction in the heavy AUD transactional selling. The correction brings the cross back to a more neutral level (based on recent ranges) at present which has us favouring mixed trade next week given the lack of critical data coming out of either country. Levels to watch are .9600 (1.0417) and .9370 (1.0672).
The current interbank midrate is:    NZDAUD 0.9444    AUDNZD 1.0589

The interbank range this week has been:    NZDAUD 0.9437 - 0.9599    AUDNZD 1.0418 - 1.0596
Tuesday 22nd November 2:30pm(NZT)
The New Zealand dollar has continued to rally in trade against the Australian dollar since Friday. The move up reflects the solid exporter demand in the NZD/USD around the 70c level and comes as talk of M&A flow pressures the AUD. The extent of the move of the last week has surprised somewhat and should offer solid short term AUD buying as the M&A flow subsides, especially should this move extend to .9645 resistance (1.0368 support.). Data looks unlikely to play a role this week.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
NZD/AUD 0.9589 0.9450 0.9645 0.9384 - 0.9599
AUD/NZD 1.0429 1.0368 1.0582 1.0418 - 1.0656

Friday 18th November 2:30pm(NZT)
The New Zealand dollar has lifted in trade against the Australian dollar this week. Much of the gains have occurred towards the end of the week as the AUD underperformed on the back of weaker key commodity prices (including gold and iron ore) and a lack-lustre market reaction to yesterday’s jobs report. This move looks to offer reasonable levels for AUD buyers heading into next week. NZD highs around .9505 (1.0521) is immediate resistance although .9550 (1.0471) would be the target for more patient AUD buyers. Data next week looks highly unlikely to play a key role in direction.
The current interbank midrate is:    NZDAUD 0.9479    AUDNZD 1.0550

The interbank range this week has been:    NZDAUD 0.9383 - 0.9517    AUDNZD 1.0508 - 1.0658
Tuesday 15th November 2:00pm(NZT)
The New Zealand dollar has eased further in trade against the Australian dollar since our commentary on Friday. Lows near .9380 (1.0661 highs) which have been seen came on the back of the NZD selling after the large earthquake in the upper south island, although sentiment from last week has been the prevailing driver. Look for influence which starts with today’s RBA minutes. GDT dairy price data is due overnight and Australian employment will feature on Thursday. Expect more choppy trade, although ranges will be much reduced on last week. We have a mild buy AUD bias on weakness against the NZD.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
NZD/AUD 0.9412 0.9380 0.9460 0.9383 - 0.9640
AUD/NZD 1.0625 1.0570 1.0661 1.0373 - 1.0658

Friday 11th November 2:30pm(NZT)
The New Zealand dollar has had a very volatile week of trade against the Australian dollar. Highs around .9640 (1.0373 lows) were seen on Wednesday during the US presidential election results as investors moved to exit the ‘risk on’ trade which impacted the AUD more heavily after it became apparent Trump would win. The move proved brief although a further spike to .9615 (1.0400) was seen after yesterday’s RBNZ OCR review. It has been mostly one way traffic for the cross since after it fell heavily yesterday following the deputy RBNZ Governor’s comments (overnight lows around .9390, 1.0650 highs). Next week should be a quieter one with liquidity in the NZD and AUD and the Australian employment data (Thursday) being the key drivers.
The current interbank midrate is:    NZDAUD 0.9467    AUDNZD 1.0563

The interbank range this week has been:    NZDAUD 0.9393 - 0.9640    AUDNZD 1.0373 - 1.0646
Tuesday 8th November 2:30pm(NZT)
The New Zealand dollar is trading largely unchanged in trade against the Australian since our last report. Gains reached highs around .9560 ( lows 1.0460) in trade yesterday morning, although have moderated in trade since. Key focus for the cross this week is Thursday’s RBNZ interest rate decision which could incite considerable volatility, especially as it comes hot on the heels of the US presidential race outcome. We have little bias given the considerable uncertainty this week, although would expect a strong surge should the RBNZ not cut the cash rate (initial target is around .9620/1.0395).
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
NZD/AUD 0.9506 0.9450 0.9620 0.9343 - 0.9580
AUD/NZD 1.0519 1.0395 1.0582 1.0439 - 1.0703

Thursday 3rd November 3:00pm(NZT)
Stronger than expected NZ data has seen the New Zealand dollar lift considerably against the Australian dollar in trade this week. Gains so far have seen the cross trade to .9530 (1.0493) which is a 50% retracement of the broad mid September to mid October NZ dollar underperformance. The move looks extended in the short term, although this week’s strong data has seen some banks reduce expectations of any further cuts beyond that expected next week. Immediate focus is on tomorrow’s RBA monetary policy statement and Australian retail sales; although next week’s RBNZ decision on Thursday will be the most critical event of the next week.
The current interbank midrate is:    NZDAUD 0.9512    AUDNZD 1.0513

The interbank range this week has been:    NZDAUD 0.9343 - 0.9529    AUDNZD 1.0494 - 1.0703
Tuesday 1st November 1:30pm(NZT)
The New Zealand dollar has lifted marginally against the Australian dollar since Friday, although sits off its .9435 highs (1.0599 lows). The move higher came on Friday as the AUD/USD continued to find selling after last week’s sharp reversal. This week is set to be a very busy one for the cross with most of the action set for the next 24 hours. Look to the RBA this afternoon (expect no change) and the GDT dairy auction and NZ employment overnight/tomorrow for direction. Friday’s RBA monetary policy statement could also be interesting. We lack a strong view given the uncertain week ahead.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
NZD/AUD .9407 .9280 .9450 .9296 - .9435
AUD/NZD 1.0630 1.0582 1.0775 1.0598 - 1.0757

Friday 28th October 3:00pm(NZT)
The New Zealand dollar is sitting unchanged against the Australian dollar since our report on Tuesday. Lows around the .9300 (1.0753 highs) level were seen during the week after Australia’s inflation data on Wednesday, although a weaker AUD since has again moved the cross off those lows which were similar to those which traded around two weeks prior. Next week will be busy for the cross with the RBA on Tuesday and NZ employment data on Wednesday. We lack a strong view although support in the broad .9250/.9300 (1.0811/1.0753 resistance) is crucial to the downside. Resistance is seen at .9450/60 (1.0582/1.0571).
The current interbank midrate is:    NZDAUD 0.9383    AUDNZD 1.0657

The interbank range this week has been:    NZDAUD 0.9296 - 0.9425    AUDNZD 1.0610 - 1.0757
Tuesday 25th October 3:00pm(NZT)
The New Zealand dollar has eased against the Australian dollar since our commentary on Friday. Selling of NZ dollars around .9425 (1.0610) capped the rally on Friday night and weakness in the NZD so far this week has seen the cross ease in recent trade. In focus for this week will be tomorrow’s Australian inflation data which will have an important impact on pricing for the future chance of a further RBA rate cut. Critical support on a strong number is eyed in the .9250/85 zone. (1.0811/1.0770 resistance)
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
NZD/AUD 0.9386 0.9340 0.9425 0.9351 - 0.9441
AUD/NZD 1.0654 1.0610 1.0707 1.0593 - 1.0694

Friday 23rd October 2:30pm(NZT)
The New Zealand dollar has continued to move higher in trade against the Australian dollar this week. The move comes on the back of a combination of a better than expected NZ inflation report and weaker than expected Australian employment data yesterday. Look for fresh direction next week on Wednesday when we receive inflation data for the third quarter in Australia. Initial resistance is seen in the .9450/60 region (1.0582/1.0571 support). Momentum for the cross is now mildly to the NZD upside, although we would be surprised to see the cross push too much higher (beyond .9460/1.0571) prior to next week’s critical data.
The current interbank midrate is:    NZDAUD 0.9412    AUDNZD 1.0625

The interbank range this week has been:    NZDAUD 0.9291 - 0.9441    AUDNZD 1.0593 - 1.0764
Tuesday 18th October 3:00pm(NZT)
The New Zealand dollar has rallied in trade against the Australian dollar since our report on Friday. The move comes on the back of demand for the NZ dollar yesterday ahead of today’s key NZ inflation data/RBA minutes. This morning saw the better than expected NZ data propel the cross to highs around .9410 (1.0627 lows). In focus for the cross will be today’s RBA minutes, the overnight GDT auction and Thursday’s Australian employment data. The strong move from near August’s major support lows (.9280/1.0776 highs) indicates that this move may have sufficient momentum to continue towards first resistance, although we would favour buying AUD around those levels.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
NZD/AUD 0.9386 0.9280 0.9450 0.9292 - 0.9412
AUD/NZD 1.0654 1.0582 1.0776 1.0624 - 1.0672

Friday 14th October 2:00pm(NZT)
The New Zealand dollar has consolidated in trade against the Australian dollar since our last report, although traded to lows around .9310 (1.0741 highs) in the interim. There has been little fresh news to influence the cross this week although RBNZ Assistant Governor McDermott’s speech during the week gave a strong indication that interest rates will be reduced in November. We continue to favour the AUD over the NZD although the solid bounce from the lows and size of the recent downswing when combined with numerous data events next week makes picking the next swing more difficult.
The current interbank midrate is:    NZDAUD .9370    AUDNZD 1.0672

The interbank range this week has been:    NZDAUD .9315 - .9459    AUDNZD 1.0572 - 1.0735
Tuesday 11th October 2:00pm(NZT)
The New Zealand dollar has continued to ease against the Australian dollar since our commentary on Friday. Support at .9400 (1.0638 resistance) has broken in overnight trade, although the move has been relatively muted so far given the lack of fresh (economic indicator) direction. Data from both countries is relatively light-weight this week, although today’s Australian housing finance and business confidence indicators may create a passing interest. We continue to favour buying the AUD over the NZD targeting levels near .9400 (1.0638) this week. An (unexpected) move to second resistance at .9450/60 (1.0582/1.0571) would be the sell NZD area for more conservative orders.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
NZD/AUD .9385 .9280 .9400 .9364 - .9513
AUD/NZD 1.0658 1.0638 1.0775 1.0511 - 1.0679

Friday 7th October 2:30pm(NZT)
The New Zealand dollar has eased against the Australian dollar in trade this week. The move looks to have reflected the recent momentum and slightly more favourable outlook for Australian interest rates, although the soft GDT dairy auction also weighed. For now NZ dollar support has formed at .9400 (1.0638 resistance) this week and represents the first barrier to another move lower for the NZD. First resistance is nearby in the .9450/60 area (1.0582/1.0571 support). A quiet calendar from both countries next week looks likely to temper the ranges. We favour buying AUD, especially should this partial NZD bounce extend to second resistance around .9515 (1.0510 support).
The current interbank midrate is:                   NZDAUD .9450    AUDNZD 1.0582

The interbank range this week has been:    NZDAUD .9401 - .9547    AUDNZD 1.0474 - 1.0637
Tuesday 4th October 3:00pm(NZT)
The New Zealand dollar is trading largely unchanged in trade against the Australian dollar since our report on Friday. The next 24 hours will be the most important for the next move in the cross this week as get the RBA interest rate statement, a speech from the RBNZ’s Wheeler and the GDT dairy auction. We favour buying AUD on rallies towards the top of the .9450/.9550 (1.0582/1.0471) range based on the recent momentum and respective outlooks for monetary policy, although the coming hours will be interesting. Look for a sustained break of .9450 (1.0582) to open key support in the .9280/.9300 (1.0776/1.0753 resistance) area over time.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
NZD/AUD .9491 .9450 .9550 .9449 - .9547
AUD/NZD 1.0536 1.0471 1.0582 1.0474 - 1.0584

Friday 30th September 2:30pm(NZT)
This week has been notable for a lack of fresh local news to drive the AUD so far with the only data due this afternoon. Trade in the local currency has been understandably contained, although some gains were seen against the greenback yesterday on the back of the positive momentum that was enjoyed by the commodity currencies as news emerged of an agreed OPEC oil production cutback at the Algeria producer talks. The surprise news sent the price of crude jumping in trade early yesterday, which in turn saw the AUD rise to .7710 against the USD during Asian trade. Focus to conclude the week will be on today’s August private sector credit data which is forecast to show a 0.5% expansion during the month. HIA new home sales data will also feature, although expect focus to quickly move towards next week’s busy calendar which includes the RBA monetary policy announcement on Tuesday and retail sales numbers on Wednesday.
Impact on this currency pair:
The current interbank midrate is:    NZDAUD 0.9491    AUDNZD 1.0536

The interbank range this week has been:    NZDAUD 0.9449 - 0.9562    AUDNZD 1.0458 - 1.0584
Tuesday 27th September 3:00pm(NZT)
The New Zealand dollar is little changed against the Australian dollar since our commentary on Friday. Further falls were seen in the interim to around the .9485 (1.0543) level by the end of the day as the market continued to digest the additional divergence in monetary policy themes from the respective central banks. This week will be very quiet on the data front and looks likely to see the NZD consolidate after last week’s heavy falls. We continue to favour buying the AUD on rallies in this pair (dips on AUD/NZD) and expect levels around .9575 (1.0444) to cap on increased NZD demand.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
NZD/AUD 0.9524 0.9480 0.9575 0.9484 - 0.9738
AUD/NZD 1.0500 1.0444 1.0549 1.0269 - 1.0544

Friday 23rd September 2:00pm(NZT)
The New Zealand dollar has fallen against the Australian dollar this week. The move comes on the back of a disappointing latest GDT dairy auction and a mildly more dovish than expected read on the RBNZ OCR statement, which continues to leave the door open for further rate cuts. This contrasted with those comments from RBA Governor Lowe which pointed to flexibility on inflation and the RBA minutes which noted that monetary policy is consistent with its goals on inflation and growth. Next week is quiet as far as data goes which has us favouring selling any NZD rallies in this cross to first resistance around .9640 (1.0373 support).
The current interbank midrate is:    NZDAUD 0.9531    AUDNZD 1.0492

The interbank range this week has been:    NZDAUD 0.9544 - 0.9746    AUDNZD 1.0260 - 1.0477
Tuesday 20th September 2:00pm(NZT)
The New Zealand dollar has eased against the Australian dollar since our report on Friday. The move comes as the AUD rallied well yesterday, perhaps in part due to the reviewed RBA Statement on the Conduct of Monetary Policy. This looks to afford greater flexibility on the inflation target, which suggests the bar to the next rate cut may be set higher. Events for the cross to watch this week start with this afternoon’s RBA minutes, tonight’s GDT dairy auction and Thursday’s RBNZ OCR review. For now the recent momentum to the NZ dollar upside appears to have waned, although this week’s events have the potential, as usual, to reverse this bias.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
NZD/AUD 0.9682 0.9640 0.9800 0.9664 - 0.9767
AUD/NZD 1.0329 1.0204 1.0373 1.0238 - 1.0348

Friday 16th September 2:30pm(NZT)
The New Zealand dollar is trading largely unchanged against the Australian dollar this week. It has been a relatively quiet week overall which saw the key data from both countries come in close enough to expectations to cause only limited volatility. Focus for next week starts with the RBA minutes on Tuesday and GDT dairy auction on Wednesday, although key interest will be Thursday’s RBNZ interest rate decision. For now momentum remains positive for the NZD, although selling has managed to cap the rally around .9765 (1.0241) so far. Initial support is seen around .9710 (1.0299 resistance).
The current interbank midrate is:    NZDAUD 0.9741    AUDNZD 1.0266

The interbank range this week has been:    NZDAUD 0.9664 - 0.9767    AUDNZD 1.0238 - 1.0348
Tuesday 13th September 1:30pm(NZT)
The New Zealand dollar is largely unchanged against the Australian dollar since our last report. The lack of overall movement reflects the lack of new critical incoming data in the interim which is again the case this week until Thursday. That’s when we get indicators on GDP (NZ) and employment (Australia). For now the momentum remains strong for the NZD, with first resistance noted at recent highs (up rising uptrend) around the .9740/50 area (1.0267/1.0256 support). Look for the respective data to drive the next move although for now current levels to buy the AUD look appealing.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
NZD/AUD 0.9731 0.9640 0.9750 0.9584 - 0.9740
AUD/NZD 1.0276 1.0256 1.0373 1.0267 - 1.0435

Thursday 8th September 2:30pm(NZT)
The New Zealand dollar has continued to move higher against the Australian dollar this week. The move reflects the outperformance of the NZD in the wake of the weaker than expected US data and comes on the back of another solid rise in the latest GDT dairy auction. Australian GDP data, which was softer than expected, added to the momentum. Albeit the data when considered in isolation, points to a solid growth story across the Tasman. We continue to favour the AUD over the NZD at present, although the momentum continues to favour the NZD upside (for now). Expect another busy week next week, especially on Thursday as we receive key data from both countries.
The current interbank midrate is:    NZDAUD 0.9715    AUDNZD 1.0293

The interbank range this week has been:    NZDAUD 0.9584 - 0.9740    AUDNZD 1.0267 - 1.0435
Tuesday 6th September 3:30pm(NZT)
The New Zealand dollar is drifting in trade against the Australian dollar ahead of today’s key RBA interest rate meeting. Expectations are near unanimous for no change today so look to the commentary for direction. The other indicator of key interest on the week will be tomorrow’s Australian GDP report. We continue to favour buying the AUD over the NZD at these levels overall, but are cautious with the event risk of the next 24 hours.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
NZD/AUD 0.9603 0.9550 0.9700 0.9566 - 0.9671
AUD/NZD 1.0414 1.0309 1.0471 1.0341 - 1.0454

Friday 2nd September 2:30pm(NZT)
The New Zealand dollar has again moved higher against the Australian dollar this week. Data out of Australia has been mixed this week, although yesterday’s retail and capex numbers were both weaker than expected. However, neither managed to push the cross beyond the .9660 highs (1.0352 lows). Next week looks set to a be a big one for the cross starting with the key RBA interest rate decision on Tuesday and Australian Q2 GDP data on Wednesday. NZD resistance beyond the week’s highs is set around .9700 (1.0309 support) and we favour buying the AUD over the NZD heading into next week.
The current interbank midrate is:    NZDAUD 0.9650    AUDNZD 1.0363

The interbank range this week has been:    NZDAUD 0.9551 - 0.9663    AUDNZD 1.0349 - 1.0470
Tuesday 30th August 2:00pm(NZT)
The New Zealand dollar is trading unchanged against the Australian dollar since Friday’s report. The lack of volatility was to be expected given the USD Jackson Hole focus and lack of important data from either country. This week look’s to lack data which should move the cross materially in either direction, although for now we favour the NZ dollar downside based on the waning upside momentum. Indicators of interest start with Australian building approvals numbers this afternoon. Australian retail sales on Thursday should offer up some volatility, although on balance liquidity over the US data on Friday may offer the best chance of a more sizeable move.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
NZD/AUD 0.9577 0.9470 0.9615 0.9551 - 0.9620
AUD/NZD 1.0442 1.0400 1.0560 1.0395 - 1.0470

Friday 26th August 3:30pm(NZT)
The New Zealand dollar has continued to drift higher against the Australian dollar this week. Highs on the week have been around the .9615 (1.0400) level although at least till now a lack of news flow and follow through momentum has dampened the chance of any further gains. Volatility in the cross may pick-up overnight when headlines come out of Jackson Hole although moves should be liquidity driven in the NZD or AUD rather than cross flow itself given the similar impact news should have on both currencies. We favour buying AUD over NZD given the extent of this month’s rally, especially should a further swing towards .9700 (1.0309) eventuate.
The current interbank midrate is:    NZDAUD 0.9578    AUDNZD 1.0440

The interbank range this week has been:    NZDAUD 0.9491 - 0.9620    AUDNZD 1.0395 - 1.0536
Tuesday 23rd August 1:30pm(NZT)
The New Zealand dollar has continued to rally against the Australian dollar since our commentary on Friday. A sharp rally in the NZD was seen over Governor Wheeler’s speech in Dunedin this morning although resistance around .9570 (1.0449 support) has so far kept the rally in check. There will be little to go on for the cross this week as far as economic leads go which has us favouring a contained range on balance. Momentum remains positive although the extent of the recent rally makes us think any rallies beyond first resistance won’t make it much further (perhaps .9600/1.0417 resistance/support at best).
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
NZD/AUD 0.9557 0.9470 0.9570 0.9387 - 0.9577
AUD/NZD 1.0462 1.0449 1.0560 1.0441 - 1.0653

Friday 19th August 1:30pm(NZT)
The New Zealand dollar has rallied against the Australian dollar this week. The move comes on the back of better than expected NZ data (which include a large jump in dairy pricing and better than expected employment data) and Australian data which has been more mixed in tone overall. For now highs around .9500 (1.0526 lows) has limited the rally although with little on the calendar of any note from either country next week this move may looks capable of extending to resistance near .9570 (1.0449 support).
The current interbank midrate is:    NZDAUD 0.9472    AUDNZD 1.0557

The interbank range this week has been:    NZDAUD 0.9358 - 0.9503    AUDNZD 1.0523 - 1.0686
Tuesday 16th August 1:30pm(NZT)
The New Zealand dollar is drifting in trade against the Australian dollar this week. Ranges have been relatively tight since our report on Friday, although this could well change over coming days with employment data due from both countries. Today’s RBA minutes are noted, although should pass without adding little new. Expect a retracement in the NZD if tonight’s GDT dairy auction fails to match the solid gains expected. For now we have little bias and expect .9300-.9470 (1.0753-1.0560) to bound unless the data should vary greatly from expectations.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
NZD/AUD 0.9393 0.9280 0.9570 0.9309 - 0.9474
AUD/NZD 1.0646 1.0449 1.0776 1.0556 - 1.0743

Friday 12th August 2:30pm(NZT)
The New Zealand dollar sits marginally higher against the Australian from those levels reported on Tuesday, although is well off those highs seen yesterday shortly after the RBNZ OCR decision. The volatility seen immediately after this announcement saw the cross quickly snap to around .9470 highs (1.0560 lows) as the market deemed the accompanying statement as insufficiently dovish given the extent of cuts already factored. Look for employment indicators from both countries to drive trade next week (NZ on Wednesday, Australia on Thursday). For now we favour more rangy conditions with the .9280 support level (1.0776 resistance) holding the key to any sustained push for the NZ dollar lower.
The current interbank midrate is:    NZDAUD 0.9370    AUDNZD 1.0672

The interbank range this week has been:    NZDAUD 0.9308 - 0.9474    AUDNZD 1.0556 - 1.0743
Tuesday 9th August 2:30pm(NZT)
The New Zealand dollar has continued to fall against its Australian counterpart since our report on Friday. The move is a continuation of the trend in recent days which has seen the AUD in greater demand than the NZD. The relative AUD strength continued over Friday’s better than expected US employment data and comes ahead of this Thursday’s RBNZ interest rate decision which has seen at least one major local bank this week further reduce their path for NZ rates in 2016. Expect the statement to set the tone for the cross. Other interest will be on the RBA Governor Steven’s final speech tomorrow.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
NZD/AUD 0.9339 0.9280 0.9570 0.9309 - 0.9567
AUD/NZD 1.0708 1.0449 1.0776 1.0453 - 1.0742

Friday 5th August 12:30pm(NZT)
The New Zealand dollar has fallen against the Australian dollar this week. The rally earlier in the week reversed from around the .9560 (1.0460) level after the RBA rate decision which saw the AUD oddly rally by over 1 c (against the USD) in the hours after the statement. The AUD  has retained this strength over the week and this now sees the cross trade the NZ dollar lows for the week in present trade. Key NZD support (AUD resistance) is noted at .9280 (1.0776). Look to the US data later today for the possibility of further volatility. Focus for next week will be on Thursday’s RBNZ cash rate announcement.
The current interbank midrate is:    NZDAUD 0.9390    AUDNZD 1.0650

The interbank range this week has been:    NZDAUD 0.9395 - 0.9567    AUDNZD 1.0453 - 1.0644
Tuesday 2nd August 3:00pm(NZT)
The New Zealand dollar is trading at highs not seen in nearly three weeks against the Australian dollar in current trade. The move comes in anticipation by many (~68%) of a further reduction in the cash rate (to 1.5%) by the RBA when they issue their statement this afternoon (2.30 pm AEST). Look for this decision and the NZ employment data tomorrow to drive the cross over the days ahead. Expect Thursday’s Australian retail sales number to have only a minor impact in comparison. Some NZD resistance should be expected around .9600 (1.0417 support), although key resistance lies ahead of .9700 (1.0309 support). Key support is noted around the recent lows at .9280 (1.0776 resistance).
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
NZD/AUD 0.9518 0.9400 0.9600 0.9343 - 0.9535
AUD/NZD 1.0507 1.0417 1.0638 1.0487 - 1.0703

Friday 29th July 1:45pm(NZT)
The New Zealand dollar has continued to move higher against the Australian dollar this week. Further strength was seen during the week after Wednesday’s Australian inflation numbers failed to silence calls for a move by the RBA to cut rates when it meets next week. Highs near .9460 (lows 1.0571) have been seen so far and come ahead of first resistance in the .9470/80 zone (1.0560/1.0549 support). Tuesday’s RBA interest rate decision will be pivotal for the next move in the cross. Expect today’s data to have a far more limited impact (ANZ business confidence in NZ and private sector credit in Australia).
The current interbank midrate is:    NZDAUD 0.9440    AUDNZD 1.0593

The interbank range this week has been:    NZDAUD 0.9320 - 0.9460    AUDNZD 1.0571 - 1.0729
Tuesday 26th July 2:00pm(NZT)
The New Zealand dollar has drifted higher against the Australian dollar in trade since Friday. There has been little to go on for the cross since our report, although the upwards adjustment looks to be in response to the general weakness in commodity prices overnight (AUD-). Wednesday will be the key day for the cross this week as the market waits to see whether the Australian inflation data satisfies the criteria for a RBA rate cut next week. We favour selling rallies in the .9415/40 (buying dips 1.0621/1.0593) zone for the time being, although Wednesday’s data has the ability to change our sentiment. Look for second NZD resistance to be pegged around .9470 (1.0560 AUD support) in the event of a poor number.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
NZD/AUD .9350 .9280 .9420 .9299 - .9424
AUD/NZD 1.0695 1.0616 1.0776 1.0611 - 1.0753

Friday 22nd July 1:00pm(NZT)
The New Zealand dollar sits slightly higher against the Australian dollar since our report on Tuesday. This comes despite yesterday’s update from the RBNZ which pointed to discontent with the high value of the NZD and its impact on tradable inflation. The comments pointed to a willingness to cut rates further in order to return inflation towards the RBNZ objective and has seen the market move to price in a cut in August and ~80% chance of a further cut by November. We are a little surprised by the stubbornness of the cross to not move lower after the statement although favour the AUD over the NZD targeting strength into the .9415/40 (1.0621/1.0593) zone to sell. Wednesday’s Australian inflation data is the next event to watch for this cross; especially given its high relevance to an August RBA rate cut chance.
The current interbank midrate is:    NZDAUD 0.9319    AUDNZD 1.0731

The interbank range this week has been:    NZDAUD 0.9285 - 0.9424    AUDNZD 1.0611 - 1.0770
Tuesday 19th July 1:00pm(NZT)
The New Zealand dollar has continued to fall against the Australian dollar in trade so far this week. Another sharp decline has been seen this morning after the release by the RBNZ of a discussion paper aimed at curbing further lending to the residential property sector. This move and yesterday’s low Q2 inflation out-turn have increased the odds that the central bank will cut rates when it next meets in August. Focus for this cross now turns to today’s RBA minutes and Thursday’s RBNZ economic update. We favour selling rallies towards .9370 (buying dips 1.0672) for this move to continue towards next support at .9250 (1.0811 resistance).
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
NZD/AUD .9320 .9250 .9375 .9285 - .9598
AUD/NZD 1.0730 1.0667 1.0811 1.0419 - 1.0770

Friday 15th July 2:00pm(NZT)
The New Zealand dollar has fallen to levels not seen in over a month against the Australian dollar this week. The move comes on the back many factors which include the more certain political environment in Australia after the incumbent government was seen remaining in power. Other more powerful influences came from the market reaction to the surprise RBNZ economic update announcement yesterday (for 21 July) which the market has taken as indicating RBNZ displeasure at the recent elevated NZD/TWI exchange rate. The strong full-time employment numbers released out of Australia yesterday added to the cross pressure and has us favouring a buy AUD over NZD mentality on rallies in this. Look for first resistance now at .9470 (1.0560). Look to NZ inflation data on Monday for first influence.
The current interbank midrate is:    NZDAUD 0.9403    AUDNZD 1.0635

The interbank range this week has been:    NZDAUD 0.9403 - 0.9695    AUDNZD 1.0315 - 1.0635
Tuesday 12th July 1:00pm(NZT)
The New Zealand dollar has eased in recent trade against the Australian dollar on the back of the emerging clarity around the outcome of the Australian election that will see the existing Liberal Coalition party remain in government. Highs seen last week were the highest since April 2015 and came as the NZD outpaced the AUD on the back of the Australian political uncertainty and meek response by the RBNZ to the current housing crisis. We favour buying AUD over the NZD given the rally of the last 2+ months although support at .9470 (1.0560 resistance) will need to give way to open the downside. Look to the Australian employment data on Thursday for direction on the week.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
NZD/AUD 0.9589 0.9470 0.9700 0.9478 - 0.9695
AUD/NZD 1.0429 1.0309 1.0560 1.0315 - 1.0550

Friday 8th July 12:00pm(NZT)
The New Zealand dollar has risen to fresh 2016 highs against the Australian dollar this week. The NZD move up in recent hours comes on the back of the lack of urgency displayed by the RBNZ in a speech to the market yesterday on implementing further macro-prudential measures to tackle the NZ housing crisis. Declines were seen to the .9470/80 support (rallies to 1.0560/1.0549 resistance) level earlier in the week as the market began to anticipate a clear outcome on the Australian election, although budget related credit rating uncertainty remains high. Momentum for the cross is to the NZ dollar topside currently, although the last ten weeks gains look overextended on a fundamental basis.
The current interbank midrate is:    NZDAUD 0.9646    AUDNZD 1.0367

The interbank range this week has been:    NZDAUD 0.9478 - 0.9666    AUDNZD 1.0346 - 1.0550
Tuesday 5th July 2:00pm(NZT)
The New Zealand dollar remains in strong demand against its Australian counterpart after the weekend’s Australian election. The ballot introduced further uncertainty into the Australian political landscape as the result will likely see minor parties holding the balance of power once all the votes are counted. Look to events this afternoon (headed by the RBA cash rate decision) to induce additional volatility. Key support remains at .9480 (1.0549 resistance), whilst on the topside resistance levels nearby are hard to find although yesterday’s highs ahead of .9630 (1.0384) is the first level to watch. We expect the NZD to remain in demand until the Australian political situation becomes clearer.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
NZD/AUD 0.9575 0.9480 0.9630 0.9524 - 0.9632
AUD/NZD 1.0444 1.0384 1.0549 1.0382 - 1.0500

Friday 1st July 3:00pm(NZT)
Risk appetite linked to the mood of the offshore financial markets has once again played the critical role in the performance of the AUD this week. Large falls in global equities on Friday and Monday reversed in trade this week as sentiment rebounded as global central bank’s moved to restore confidence in the wake of Friday’s UK EU exit vote. As with all the currencies covered, the data wrap in Australia this week has played second fiddle to the sentiment on global markets. HIA new home sales followed last month’s fall with a similar sized decline, whilst new credit issued to consumers and businesses in Australia rose less than expectations after growth eased 0.1% from last month’s result. Focus now turns to this weekend’s federal election where current opinion polls point to a tight race. Betting odds favour a Liberal-National Coalition win, although the election result is unlikely to have an impact on monetary policy.
Impact on this currency pair:
The current interbank midrate is:    NZDAUD 0.9571    AUDNZD 1.0448

The interbank range this week has been:    NZDAUD 0.9513 - 0.9587    AUDNZD 1.0431 - 1.0512
Tuesday 28th June 2:00pm(NZT)
The New Zealand dollar has remained within a range against the Australian dollar since our last report. This comes as the decision by the UK to leave the EU has affected both the NZD and AUD in similar ways in response to moves away from those currencies perceived as more risky. Expect a similar week this week with ranges that respond to flow against the USD given the lack of incoming key data from either country. We favour buying AUD over NZD overall, although a sustained break of .9600 (under 1.0417) should open further NZ dollar upside. The Australian election will offer the lead in the near term.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
NZD/AUD 0.9534 0.9480 0.9600 0.9502 - 0.9586
AUD/NZD 1.0489 1.0417 1.0549 1.0432 - 1.0524

Friday 24th June 3:00pm(NZT)
The New Zealand dollar has remained well contained against the Australian dollar this week. Economic events of interest from either country which have been lacking over the week have meant the immediate support (.9480, 1.0549 resistance) and resistance (.9600, 1.0417 support) levels have remained in place. We favour taking advantage of the premium in liquidity that should take place later today over the Brexit announcement to place orders at extremes and continue to favour buying the AUD over the NZD overall.
The current interbank midrate is:    NZDAUD 0.9538    AUDNZD 1.0483

The interbank range this week has been:    NZDAUD 0.9502 - 0.9575    AUDNZD 1.0444 - 1.0524
Tuesday 21st June 2:00pm(NZT)
The New Zealand dollar is little changed against the Australian dollar since our report on Friday. Rallies continue to find NZD selling interest around .9600 (buying dips to 1.0417) at present and this level continued to cap NZD demand after the firm NZ GDP data last week. Events of interest for the cross this week include the RBA minutes and a speech from RBA Assistant Governor Debelle, both are due today. We favour buying AUD over NZD at current levels, although a breach of support at .9480 (1.0549 resistance) is required to open the NZ dollar downside (AUD upside).
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
NZD/AUD 0.9527 0.9480 0.9600 0.9480 - 0.9597
AUD/NZD 1.0496 1.0417 1.0549 1.0420 - 1.0549

Friday 17th June 3:00pm(NZT)
The New Zealand dollar continues to remain well supported against the Australian dollar in current trade. The gradual retracement in the cross seen earlier in the week was limited to around .9480 (1.0549) and came prior to yesterday’s strong NZ Q1 GDP print. The rally on the back of this data has so far capped once again ahead of resistance around the .9600 (1.0417 support) level. Data is limited from both countries next week so it will be down to liquidity and external drivers to move the cross over the week ahead. We continue to favour the AUD over the NZD at current levels although acknowledge the solid recent NZ data and current upwards momentum in the cross.
The current interbank midrate is:    NZDAUD 0.9544    AUDNZD 1.0479

The interbank range this week has been:    NZDAUD 0.9475 - 0.9600    AUDNZD 1.0417 - 1.0554
Tuesday 14th June 2:00pm(NZT)
The New Zealand dollar has eased against the Australian since our report on Friday. The pull-back comes after last week’s large rally which saw the cross hit highs last seen in May last year. The move was largely RBNZ inspired although was compounded by easing commodity prices towards the end of the week. NZ GDP and the Australian employment report are the key events to watch this week. We favour a further retracement after last week’s large advance and favour buying AUD over NZD at current levels.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
NZD/AUD 0.9530 0.9485 0.9600 0.9313 - 0.9607
AUD/NZD 1.0493 1.0417 1.0543 1.0409 - 1.0738

Friday 10th June 3:00pm(NZT)
The New Zealand dollar has continued to march higher against the Australian dollar this week. The gains compounded after the RBNZ left rates on hold yesterday and noted the pressure that further stimulus would put on the housing market. Weakening key $AUD sensitive commodity prices overnight has meant that the pull back has been limited from the .9600 (1.0417) highs. The extent of the move is surprising and current levels would appear to offer great value for AUD buyers. Resistance beyond the week’s highs is distant however and a sustained break could turn attention to the April 2015 highs near parity in time. Events to watch next week include NZ GDP and Australian employment.
The current interbank midrate is:    NZDAUD 0.9584    AUDNZD 1.0434

The interbank range this week has been:    NZDAUD 0.9313 - 0.9607    AUDNZD 1.0409 - 1.0738
Tuesday 7th June 3:00pm(NZT)
The New Zealand dollar has eased against the Australian dollar since our last report although not before reaching highs around .9485 (1.0543) in the interim. Strong Australian data last week was unable to prevent further NZD gains initially although the cross has now fallen over 1c from its highs, perhaps in part due to re-positioning ahead of today’s RBA meeting. Critical to the cross also will be Thursday’s RBNZ rate call. The sharp fall from the highs has us favouring further downside although the falls mean resistance at the highs is now distant.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
NZD/AUD 0.9378 0.9250 0.9485 0.9279 - 0.9496
AUD/NZD 1.0663 1.0543 1.0811 1.0530 - 1.0777

Thursday 2nd June 1:30pm(NZT)
The New Zealand dollar is trading strongly against the Australian dollar in current trade, although resistance nearby (.9415, 1.0621 support) has capped further NZD advances so far. The bounce from the week’s lows has surprised us given the nature of the overall strong (more critical) Australian data leads. Australian trade and retail numbers this afternoon are the immediate events of interest for this cross. We strongly favour buying AUD at these levels and suspect that the current strength is more than likely flow related rather than a forbearer of further strong gains. Support is seen from the week’s lows through to .9250 (1.0811resistance).
The current interbank midrate is:    NZDAUD 0.9405    AUDNZD 1.0632

The interbank range this week has been:    NZDAUD 0.9279 - 0.9410    AUDNZD 1.0627 - 1.0777
Tuesday 31st May 2:30pm(NZT)
The New Zealand dollar is trading with a mildly soft tone in current trade against the Australian dollar. Attempts to push beyond resistance just above .9400 (below 1.0638) have so far failed on this NZD upswing. Fonterra’s 2016/17 payout forecasts last week have increased focus on the vulnerabilities of the NZ economy and come prior to what could be a busy week for the cross this week. Australian events look set to dominate proceedings and start with building approvals and private sector credit data this afternoon. The largest impact is likely to come from the later GDP and retail sales releases, although an eye should also be kept out for the NZ GDT dairy auction results.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
NZD/AUD 0.9332 0.9250 0.9415 0.9305 - 0.9406
AUD/NZD 1.0716 1.0621 1.0811 1.0632 - 1.0747

Friday 27th May 2:00pm(NZT)
The New Zealand dollar spent much of this week relentlessly testing resistance around 0.9400 AUD (1.0640). After at least four failed attempts to gain a foothold through that level, the pair eventually rolled over and a sharp NZ dollar pullback ensued. The trigger for the move was Fonterra’s announcement yesterday morning which provided NZD sellers all the ammunition they needed to push the currency lower. The pair eventually trade all the way down to 0.9305 (above 1.0746), before staging a recovery overnight. That recovery has been capped by the 0.9360 (1.0684) area and as long as that remains the case, further NZD downside if favoured. NZ business confidence and another dairy auction will draw focus next week, while from Australia we have building approvals, GDP, retail sales and the trade balance to digest.
The current interbank midrate is:    NZDAUD 0.9338    AUDNZD 1.0709

The interbank range this week has been:    NZDAUD 0.9305 - 0.9415    AUDNZD 1.0621 - 1.0747
Tuesday 24th May 2:00pm(NZT)
The New Zealand dollar has continued to firm against the Australian dollar since our report on Friday. Further gains have been seen on the back of a shift in a call on the June RBNZ rate move by a local bank (now no change) and from pressure on iron ore prices which have fallen to 10 week lows yesterday. Data releases out of either country look very unlikely to drive the next move this week so again look to commodity sentiment to have a strong influence. We favour buying AUD over NZD after the strong move up seen since late April.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
NZD/AUD 0.9346 0.9250 0.9415 0.9254 - 0.9415
AUD/NZD 1.0700 1.0621 1.0811 1.0621 - 1.0806

Friday 20th May 3:00pm(NZT)
The New Zealand dollar continues to trade strongly in current trade against the Australian dollar. A dip which was seen to .9250 (rally to 1.0811) on the release of the RBA minutes on Tuesday proved short lived as the NZD set fresh 3 month + highs around .9380 (1.0661) yesterday. The extremes seen this week will set first minor support and resistance levels into next week where neither country has data releases that look likely to usher in the next move. Expect hard commodity sentiment and the respective moves in the NZD/USD and AUD/USD exchange rates to be the drivers. We favour buying AUD over NZD at these levels.
The current interbank midrate is:    NZDAUD 0.9347    AUDNZD 1.0699

The interbank range this week has been:    NZDAUD 0.9254 - 0.9387    AUDNZD 1.0654 - 1.0806
Tuesday 17th May 2:00pm(NZT)
The New Zealand dollar remains on a firm footing against the Australian dollar in current trade. The RBNZ survey on inflation expectations and RBA minutes should provide a little interest today, although it will be the Australian employment data on Thursday which is most important for this cross. Solid support and resistance levels are wide, although some minor support may be seen near ~.9260 (~1.0800 resistance). Also look for potential interim resistance near .9370 (1.0672 support). We still favour taking advantage of the NZ dollar rally this month in buying AUD overall.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
NZD/AUD 0.9303 0.9200 0.9400 0.9159 - 0.9340
AUD/NZD 1.0749 1.0638 1.0870 1.0707 - 1.0919

Friday 13th May 3:00pm(NZT)
The New Zealand dollar has bounced back strongly against the Australian dollar this week and sits near its highs in current trade. Support ahead of .9150 (1.0929 resistance) held the retracement prior to the latest rally, which started after the release of the NZ Financial Stability report. Increasing expectations of further RBA rate cuts continues to bolster demand for the NZD comparatively and raises the chance of next resistance at .9450 (1.0582 support) being challenged in time. With a light NZ data calendar next week look for the prevailing commodity sentiment and the Australian employment data to drive the cross.
The current interbank midrate is:    NZDAUD 0.9316    AUDNZD 1.0734

The interbank range this week has been:    NZDAUD 0.9159 - 0.9330    AUDNZD 1.0719 - 1.0919
Tuesday 10th May 2:00pm(NZT)
The New Zealand dollar has continued to advance against the Australian dollar since our last commentary, although sits off its highs in current trade. Highs were seen just above .9300 ( lows 1.0753) late last week and came amidst an environment of weak demand for the AUD after the RBA rate cut on Tuesday and later bearish RBA statement on monetary policy (Friday). Weakening commodity prices (sharp falls have been seen in oil, steel, gold, and iron ore overnight) have continued to apply pressure to the currencies of large hard commodity exporters like Australia. We favour AUD longs near the highs noting the inability for the cross to extend overnight despite the large fall seen in many commodities.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
NZD/AUD 0.9219 0.9150 0.9310 0.9133 - 0.9311
AUD/NZD 1.0848 1.0741 1.0929 1.0740 - 1.0950

Friday 6th May 2:00pm(NZT)
The New Zealand dollar has again shifted higher against the Australian dollar this week. The move occurred on Tuesday after the RBA opted to cut rates for the first time in a year. The NZD rally has so far failed to breach resistance at .9265 (1.0793 support) in what has been relatively subdued trade after the decision. Next week is a relatively quiet one for the pair which should again see commodity influences come to the fore. Watch today’s RBA Statement on Monetary Policy for indications of forward bias on rates. We favour selling NZ dollars near this week’s highs especially should the RBA indicate further cuts are unlikely.
The current interbank midrate is:    NZDAUD 0.9218    AUDNZD 1.0848

The interbank range this week has been:    NZDAUD 0.9096 - 0.9258    AUDNZD 1.0801 - 1.0994
Tuesday 3rd May 2:20pm(NZT)
The New Zealand dollar has continued to rally against the Australian dollar since our report on Friday. This comes as the market reaction to the weaker than expected Australian inflation report and  the RBNZ OCR statement last week remain in force. Expect events of the next 24 hours to have a large impact on the pair this week, starting with the RBA cash rate announcement this afternoon. With market pricing evenly placed at ~ 50/50 on a cut we expect significant volatility to ensue. NZ employment data due tomorrow will add to what is likely to be a choppy week of trade for this cross. Resistance beyond .9220 (1.0846 support) should be seen near .9265 (1.0793 support) although is minor in nature. We favour buying AUD and selling NZD at those levels overall.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
NZD/AUD 0.9175 0.9050 0.9220 0.8886 - 0.9220
AUD/NZD 1.0899 1.0846 1.1050 1.0846 - 1.1253

Friday 29th April 2:00pm(NZT)
The combination of a much weaker than expected Australian Q1 inflation print and more hawkish than expected RBNZ statement at yesterdays OCR review has seen the New Zealand dollar rally strongly against the Australian dollar this week. The rally from the lows has exceeded 3% which saw the old resistance around .9050 (1.1050 support) break after the OCR review. This week’s highs at .9150 (1.0929) now form the new first up resistance, beyond which the .9185/.9200 zone is next resistance (1.0887/1.0870 support). Look for another busy week in the cross next week starting with the RBA rate decision on Tuesday.
The current interbank midrate is:    NZDAUD 0.9116    AUDNZD 1.0970

The interbank range this week has been:    NZDAUD 0.8873 - 0.9153    AUDNZD 1.0925 - 1.1270
Tuesday 26th April 2:20pm(NZT)
The New Zealand dollar is lifting in current trade against the Australian dollar. Whilst still soft overall, the lift from the lows has been helped by weakness in oil and iron ore prices overnight. These key commodities for Australia helped the AUD gain against the NZD over the course of last week. Look for fresh direction for the cross to come from the key Australian inflation data tomorrow and NZ OCR decision on Thursday. Whilst favouring selling any NZD rallies, we note that key resistance continues to remain distant and could be visited on a NZD favourable combo this week.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
NZD/AUD 0.8900 0.8830 0.9050 0.8873 - 0.9030
AUD/NZD 1.1236 1.1050 1.1325 1.1074 - 1.1270

Friday 22nd April 2:00pm(NZT)
The New Zealand dollar has remained well with its recent ranges against the Australian dollar this week. Current levels are approximately mid range of the last 6 weeks and come after the NZ dollar fell ahead of resistance in the middle of the week This cam on the back of stronger demand for the AUD as it enjoyed the benefit of a strong oil price and continued rally in iron ore. Domestic events which have been lacking of late will feature next week and include the Australian Q1 inflation numbers on Wednesday and RBNZ OCR decision on Thursday. We continue to favour selling NZ dollar rallies in this cross, although  target levels of resistance at .9050 (1.1050 support) is nearly 1.5% away at present.
The current interbank midrate is:    NZDAUD .8921    AUDNZD 1.1210

The interbank range this week has been:    NZDAUD .8899 - .9073    AUDNZD 1.1021 - 1.1237
Tuesday 19th April 2:38pm(NZT)
The New Zealand dollar has enjoyed some relief against the Australian dollar in trade this week after last week’s falls. Flow in the pair helped drive the NZD to lows around .8880 (highs 1.1261) last week, although the story has been very different this week after the NZD opened sharply higher yesterday on the back of the Doha oil meeting impasse. A strong rebound in the oil price has helped moderate the gains in recent hours however. Attention for the cross now turns to this afternoons RBA minutes before overnight events of interest which include a speech from the RBA’s Governor and the latest GDT dairy price auction. The pair remains very mid-range and somewhat directionless as expected.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
NZD/AUD 0.8932 0.8830 0.9050 0.8897 - 0.9073
AUD/NZD 1.1131 1.1050 1.1325 1.1021 - 1.1240

Friday 15th April 2:00pm(NZT)
The New Zealand dollar has fallen heavily against the Australian dollar since our report on Tuesday. Much of the move occurred yesterday on the back of flow in the NZD/AUD cross. Some additional losses have been seen after the release of yesterday’s Australian employment report, although the NZ dollar had already been markedly outperformed running into the data. Minor support at .8920 (1.1211 resistance) has now been broken which should mean that the older more critical support level at .8830 (1.1325 resistance) will now open up. NZ inflation data on Monday complicates though.
The current interbank midrate is:    NZDAUD 0.8912    AUDNZD 1.1221

The interbank range this week has been:    NZDAUD 0.8897 - 0.9060    AUDNZD 1.1037 - 1.1240
Tuesday 12th April 2:30pm(NZT)
The New Zealand dollar has drifted slightly higher against the Australian dollar since our report on Friday. The dour trade in this cross comes on the back of data calendars out of both countries which have been very quiet. Australian employment numbers on Thursday should hopefully provide some excitement and will be followed by inflation data out of NZ on Monday next week. For now the cross appears to be in a slow grind for the NZD higher. Should the immediate nearby resistance break at .9040 (1.1062 support) we would again look to sell NZD near .9110 (1.0977).
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
NZD/AUD 0.9037 0.8920 0.9040 0.8929 - 0.9047
AUD/NZD 1.1066 1.1062 1.1211 1.1053 - 1.1199

Friday 8th April 2:00pm(NZT)
The New Zealand dollar has lifted slightly against the Australian dollar since our report on Tuesday. Having said that, a NZD fall was seens this week after the NZIER business confidence survey and post the RBA cash rate decision whose statement failed to point explicitly at the recent AUD strength. A lift has been seen overnight as the AUD has underperformed in the face of fierce JPY demand. First support is seen at .8920 (1.1211 resistance), resistance is close by at .9040 (1.1062 support). Look for external factors to again dictate next week until the Australian employment data release on Thursday.
The current interbank midrate is:    NZDAUD 0.9005    AUDNZD 1.1105

The interbank range this week has been:    NZDAUD 0.8929 - 0.9036    AUDNZD 1.1067 - 1.1199
Tuesday 5th April 2:30pm(NZT)
The New Zealand dollar eased against the Australian dollar this morning after the release of a weak latest NZIER business confidence survey. It will be a busy day for the cross today with the RBA cash rate announcement due this afternoon. Fallout from this meeting should play a pivotal role in determining the direction of this pair for the remainder of this week. To that extent with expectations near universal for no move the change will most likely come down to what comments are made (or lack of) over the recent run up in the AUD and whether the move may influence the rhetoric in wording of the policy announcement. Key support beyond the first minor support level lies at .8830 (resistance 1.1325).
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
NZD/AUD 0.8962 0.8920 0.9040 0.8915 - 0.9044
AUD/NZD 1.1158 1.1062 1.1211 1.1057 - 1.1218

Friday 1st April 3:30pm(NZT)
Highs near .9040 (lows 1.1062) have been seen by the New Zealand dollar against the Australian dollar following the dramatic sell-off in the USD. This occurred after Fed Chair Janet Yellen’s mid week speech which struck dovish notes over the caution required for US rate moves. The move higher in the cross this week has primarily occurred on the back of reductions in sold NZD vs bought AUD positions, rather than NZD/USD positioning. Next week should again be busy for the cross with various Australian data due on Monday followed by the RBA cash rate decision on Tuesday (no change expected). Resistance beyond this week’s highs should lie around .9120 (1.0965 support). First minor support should be seen around .8970 (1.1148 resistance). We view current levels offered by the NZD/AUD shorts stopping out as good levels for fresh sell NZD orders.
The current interbank midrate is:    NZDAUD 0.9017    AUDNZD 1.1090

The interbank range this week has been:    NZDAUD 0.8884 - 0.9044    AUDNZD 1.1057 - 1.1256
Tuesday 29th March 2:30pm(NZT)
The New Zealand dollar has been well contained against the Australian dollar since our report a week ago. Highs around .8930 (lows 1.1198) have been noted since that report, whilst support above .8880 (resistance 1.1261) has held any moves of NZ dollar underperformance. Quiet data calendars from both countries this week has us favouring more of the same over the days ahead. Our bias for now remains to sell NZ dollar rallies ahead of first resistance (.8970, 1.1148 support).
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
NZD/AUD 0.8914 0.8830 0.8970 0.8823 - 0.8939
AUD/NZD 1.1218 1.1148 1.1325 1.1187 - 1.1334

Tuesday 22nd March 3:30pm(NZT)
The New Zealand dollar is drifting in current trade against the Australian dollar. Liquidity inspired NZD gains in the cross last week failed at the highs seen a week earlier (around .8970, lows 1.1148). Lows traded last week (.8830, highs 1.1325) managed to only briefly pierce the RBNZ rate cut NZD low points. It is a very quiet week for both countries this week on the economic front. This has us favouring more consolidation with recent ranges. Any outperformance from the NZD over the AUD should be limited to the resistance at .8970 (1.1148 support).
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
NZD/AUD 0.8927 0.8830 0.8970 0.8835 - 0.8968
AUD/NZD 1.1202 1.1148 1.1325 1.1151 - 1.1369

Friday 18th March 1:30pm(NZT)
The New Zealand dollar has roared higher against the USD in the latter part of this week. Pricing was initially weak at the start of this week on the back of weaker commodities pricing. The NZD/USD has rallied sharply over the last 36 hrs on the back of the shift lower in the USD which occurred after the more dovish than expected US FOMC statement yesterday. Better than expected NZ GDP data and another shift higher in the commodity currencies has added further fuel to the rally since. Offshore events will hold the key next week to whether this move can extend through the key resistance in the .6890/.6905 area which has capped the two major rallies from October last year.
The current interbank midrate is:    NZDUSD 0.6828

The interbank range this week has been:    NZDUSD 0.6577 - 0.6859
Tuesday 15th March 1:30pm(NZT)
Pressure on the New Zealand dollar against the Australian dollar has resumed again this week. The surprise decision by the RBNZ to cut interest rates on Thursday last week has seen the local unit come under heavy selling pressure since, although the trend was well in place prior to the news. Thursday will be another key day for this cross with NZ Q4 GDP and Australian employment numbers slated for release. Commodity prices will continue to influence, their strong rally of late has seen investors’ heavily favour the AUD over the NZD in recent weeks. Watch the latest dairy price auction overnight tonight also. We favour lower levels targeting .8750 (1.1429) over time, the dataflow this week may allow for entries nearer first resistance though.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
NZD/AUD 0.8886 0.8860 0.8970 0.8862 - 0.9124
AUD/NZD 1.1255 1.1148 1.1287 1.0960 - 1.1284

Friday 11th March 1:30pm(NZT)
The New Zealand dollar has plummeted against the Australian dollar this week. The already weak trend accelerated sharply yesterday after the surprise decision by the RBNZ to cut interest rates. Whilst many have been predicting cuts in 2016, few had predicted a move as early as March. We strongly favour selling NZD rallies from here after the policy move, a view which is made firmer by the recent broad based rally in the key Australian commodities. Next week will be another busy one in this cross given the key data releases in both countries. We look for resistance at .9050 ( support 1.1050) to capnow any NZD bounce.
The current interbank midrate is:    NZDAUD 0.8946    AUDNZD 1.1178

The interbank range this week has been:    NZDAUD 0.8862 - 0.9193    AUDNZD 1.0878 - 1.1284
Friday 4th March 6:00pm(NZT)
The New Zealand dollar has continued to fall sharply against the Australian dollar over the course of the week. This continued the trend that began on Friday after the better than expected U.S. data. The declines have been re-enforced this week on the back of the solid gains in Australia’s key commodities which include iron-ore, base metals and the sentiment from a stronger oil price. A stronger than expected Australian Q4 GDP print on Wednesday provided the impetus for the cross to break support at .9200 (1.0870 resistance). This level should now form the first resistance to any NZD bounce whilst support just above and around .9100 (1.0989 resistance) forms the immediate barrier to further declines. Of immediate interest for the cross is the Australian retail sales report at 1.30 pm today.
The current interbank midrate is:    NZDAUD 0.9137    AUDNZD 1.0945

The interbank range this week has been:    NZDAUD 0.9111 - 0.9371    AUDNZD 1.0672 - 1.0976
Tuesday 1st March 2:30pm(NZT)
The New Zealand dollar has fallen sharply against the Australian dollar since our report on Friday. The declines have come on the back of the sharp falls seen on Friday post the better than expected U.S. data-flow (likely liquidity driven in the NZD/USD) and  yesterday’s soft local building consent and business confidence data. A downgraded assessment by a leading bank for the fortunes of the NZ economy has also weighed. Support at .9200 (1.0870 resistance) has again held the decline so far, fresh resistance which formed last week around .9370 (1.0672 support) now lies distant. Data considerations for the cross includes tonight’s dairy price data and Australian data which includes the RBA monetary policy announcement this afternoon and Q4 GDP numbers tomorrow.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
NZD/AUD 0.9244 0.9200 0.9370 0.9196 - 0.9371
AUD/NZD 1.0818 1.0672 1.0870 1.0672 - 1.0874

Friday 26th February 2:00pm(NZT)
The New Zealand dollar is trading on its weekly highs against the Australian dollar in present trade. Support around the .9200 (1.0870 resistance) again held during the week. Weaker than expected Australian Capex intention numbers released yesterday have helped cement the NZ dollar gains from those lows, the rally has so far failed to break the first resistance in the .9310/30 zone (1.0742/1.0718 support). Australian data looks set to be the key driver for the cross next week. Releases include Q4 GDP and January retail sales. Resistance beyond the recent highs is pegged around .9450 (1.0582).
The current interbank midrate is:    NZDAUD 0.9316    AUDNZD 1.0734

The interbank range this week has been:    NZDAUD 0.9196 - 0.9332    AUDNZD 1.0716 - 1.0874
Tuesday 23th February 4:00pm(NZT)
The New Zealand dollar is drifting in trade so far against the Australian dollar this week. Weaker than expected Australian employment data on Thursday helped the local unit lift from its lows (~.9200, 1.0870) last week. A relatively empty data schedule this week has us favouring mainly lateral trading with a marginal NZD downside bias this week as resistance in the .9310/30 (1.0742/1.0718 support) area caps. Strong gains in key commodities like oil and iron ore would likely place NZ dollar under pressure, testing buyers around the .9200 (1.0870) level.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
NZD/AUD 0.9267 0.9200 0.9330 0.9199 - 0.9325
AUD/NZD 1.0791 1.0718 1.0870 1.0724 - 1.0871

Friday 19th February 2:00pm(NZT)
The New Zealand dollar has eased against the Australian dollar this week, although sits well off its lows after yesterday’s weaker than expected Australian employment data. Buyers around the .9200 (sellers 1.0870) level supported the sell-off prior to the weak data and came after the NZD/USD underperformed in the improving risk sentiment environment seen after Friday’s better than expected U.S. data. Next week’s data schedule is quiet for both countries, this has us favouring this NZD rally to find resistance in the .9310/30 (1.0742/1.0718 support) region.
The current interbank midrate is:    NZDAUD 0.9283    AUDNZD 1.0772

The interbank range this week has been:    NZDAUD 0.9199 - 0.9431    AUDNZD 1.0604 - 1.0871
Tuesday 16th February 2:00pm(NZT)
The New Zealand dollar has weakened significantly against the Australian dollar since our last report. This comes after the NZD/USD failed to benefit from the improvement seen in risk sentiment after the better than expected U.S. data on Friday. Today’s NZ retail sales miss and a likely weak outcome to tonight’s dairy auction are also weighing. The AUD/USD in comparison has rallied on the lift in risk sentiment and on the back of a move up in oil pricing. Australian employment data on Thursday will be important for this cross. A break of .9265 (1.0793) has the potential to open levels near .9100 (1.0989).
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
NZD/AUD 0.9300 0.9265 0.9455 0.9292 - 0.9459
AUD/NZD 1.0753 1.0576 1.0793 1.0572 - 1.0762

Friday 12th February 2:00pm(NZT)
The New Zealand dollar has continued to trade solidly against the Australian dollar this week. The tone of trade this week has been set by overall USD weakness and flows out of the USD rather than any local issues. Reduced liquidity in the NZD/USD exchange rate has therefore played a key role in the NZD outperformance this week. Australian employment data and NZ retail/dairy price data are the key releases next week. We favour selling this cross especially after the recent strong rally, key resistance to target selling lies in the .9485-.9525 zone (1.0543-1.0499 support).
The current interbank midrate is:    NZDAUD 0.9425    AUDNZD 1.0610

The interbank range this week has been:    NZDAUD 0.9306 - 0.9459    AUDNZD 1.0572 - 1.0746
Tuesday 9th February 3:00pm(NZT)
The New Zealand dollar continues to trade on a firm footing against the Australian dollar in trade this week. This comes on the back of last week’s surge after the latest NZ employment data and comments from RBNZ Governor Wheeler. Softer than expected Australian retail sales data on Friday failed to make much impact and for now the NZ dollar momentum higher appears to have abated. Data this week is unlikely to make much impact, although a speech by the RBA Governor on Friday should be noted. We favour selling NZ dollars (buying AUD) near last week’s highs(lows) this week.
 
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
NZD/AUD .9361 .9265 .9385 .9169 - .9388
AUD/NZD 1.0682 1.0655 1.0793 1.0652 - 1.0906

Friday 5th February 2:00pm(NZT)
The New Zealand dollar has surged against the Australian dollar this week putting on almost 3% to its highs from its lows. The sharp gains come on the back of a jump in the latest NZ Q4 employment data which saw 16k fewer people unemployed in the December quarter from the quarter prior. The momentum was also aided by comments from the RBNZ Governor which appeared to note a preoccupation by the market with the current weak headline inflation levels. Australian retail sales and the RBA statement on monetary policy this afternoon provide the next lead cross. Next week should see a reduction in volatility in light of the relatively low impact data calendar scheduled for release. The rally this week would appear to offer attractive levels for NZ dollar sellers, in the near term at least. First resistance is pegged around .9420 (support 1.0616).
The current interbank midrate is:    NZDAUD 0.9345    AUDNZD 1.0701

The interbank range this week has been:    NZDAUD 0.9126 - 0.9387    AUDNZD 1.0653 - 1.0958
Tuesday 2nd February 2:00pm(NZT)
The New Zealand dollar has staged a rally against the Australian dollar in recent hours ahead of the very important next 36 hour period for this cross. This period includes the release of the next GDT dairy price auction, NZ Q4 employment data, and firstly the RBA cash rate meeting this afternoon. Pricing for the NZD took a hit last week after the more dovish than expected RBNZ monetary policy meeting commentary and marginally better than expected Australian inflation data. Friday will also be important for this cross with both Australian retail sales and the RBA statement on monetary policy due for release. We favour selling NZD rallies for now, but note the much higher than normal uncertainty due to the heavy weight of incoming data.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
NZD/AUD 0.9205 0.9110 0.9225 0.9117 - 0.9301
AUD/NZD 1.0864 1.0840 1.0977 1.0751 - 1.0968

Friday 29th January 1:30pm(NZT)
The New Zealand dollar has declined significantly against the Australian dollar this week on the back of a change in the RBNZ’s stance towards additional rate cuts and a slightly better than expected Q4 Australian inflationary print. We continue to favour selling NZD rallies at present, now towards .9220 (1.0846) for a move towards first support around .9020 (resistance 1.1086). Key events of interest next week will be the RBA meeting on Tuesday, Australian retail sales on Friday and NZ employment/dairy price data on Wednesday.
The current interbank midrate is:    NZDAUD 0.9140    AUDNZD 1.0941

The interbank range this week has been:    NZDAUD 0.9117 - 0.9333    AUDNZD 1.0715 - 1.0968
Tuesday 26th January 4:00pm(NZT)
The New Zealand dollar has firmed marginally from its lows seen against the Australian dollar last week after the weak local Q4 inflation print. Direction this week will come from tomorrow’s Australian Q4 inflation numbers and the RBNZ interest rate decision on Thursday. Despite few in the market expecting a rate cut the meeting will be an important one as the market looks to the bias in the statement, especially in light of last week’s soft inflation numbers and the recent dairy price and Auckland housing market data. We favour selling rallies for now towards the above resistance level.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
NZD/AUD 0.9270 0.9220 0.9400 0.9226 - 0.9398
AUD/NZD 1.0787 1.0638 1.0846 1.0640 - 1.0839

Friday 22nd January 2:30pm(NZT)
Liquidity and flow have again had an important influence over the pricing of this pair during the week. The weak Q4 NZ inflation print on Wednesday saw the NZD fall sharply to trade near lows around .9225 (1.0840). Next week’s direction will likely come from the associated commentary with the RBNZ interest rate decision, an interest rate cut at this stage is considered unlikely. We favour selling rallies around and above this week’s highs (.9400, lows 1.0638), although levels close to .9500 (1.0526) are more extreme.
The current interbank midrate is:    NZDAUD 0.9318    AUDNZD 1.0732

The interbank range this week has been:    NZDAUD 0.9226 - 0.9425    AUDNZD 1.0610 - 1.0839
Tuesday 19th January 2:00pm(NZT)
Action in the wider market has been the main driver of this cross for much of this year. Both the New Zealand dollar and the Australian dollar have been under pressure on the back of global market turmoil and it’s the timing of flows out of each currency that has been the dominant factor in driving this pair. Domestic releases from either currency have had only minimal impact so far, although we do have data this week that could influence. On the NZD side of the equation we have a dairy auction tonight and inflation data tomorrow, while from Australia we get consumer sentiment on Wednesday and inflation expectations on Thursday. We still expect a broad range of 0.9000 to 0.9500 (1.0525 - 1.1111) to dominate over the coming months, and as such any periods of strength in the NZD over 0.9400 (under 1.0638), will likely provide a good selling opportunity (good buying of AUD).
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
NZD/AUD 0.9385 0.9250 0.9500 0.9252 - 0.9425
AUD/NZD 1.0655 1.0526 1.0811 1.0610 - 1.0809

Friday 15th January 2:00pm(NZT)
The New Zealand dollar has continued to fall this week building further on its losses against the Australian since last week’s .9485 highs(lows 1.0543). Improving commodity prices overnight helped the AUD/USD exchange rate post a solid bounce from the .6900 support level. This has seen the pair break support at .9325 (resistance 1.0724) to trade around the .9260 (1.0799) level currently, as the NZD/USD recovery lagged. The next NZD support (AUD resistance) levels are now pegged around .9170 (1.0905) and .9150 (1.0929), with the .9325 (1.0724) level now becoming first NZD resistance. In the current environment, the periodic NZD underperformance will likely continue into next week.
The current interbank midrate is:    NZDAUD 0.9280    AUDNZD 1.0776

The interbank range this week has been:    NZDAUD 0.9260 - 0.9457    AUDNZD 1.0574 - 1.0799
Tuesday 12th January 2:00pm(NZT)
The New Zealand dollar remains firm against the Australian dollar in the first days of 2016 ,although currently sits off its highs set last week near .9485 (1.0543). Again the AUD$ sensitivity to key commodity price weakness was seen driving the moves in the cross over the holiday break. The NZD peaked last week amid the heavy commodity selling which was seen on the back of the increased Chinese economic concerns and crashing Chinese equity markets. Australian employment data on Thursday will form additional focus for this cross, we favour selling NZ dollar out performances in this cross, although prefer levels near last week’s highs.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
NZD/AUD 0.9385 0.9325 0.9520 0.9321 - 0.9487
AUD/NZD 1.0655 1.0504 1.0724 1.0540 - 1.0728

Tuesday 22nd December 2:00pm(NZT)
The New Zealand dollar remains well bid against the Australian dollar although sits off its recent highs in present trade. AUD sensitivity to key commodity price weakness has been the primary driver of AUD underperformance in recent weeks. It should again be a key driver over the holiday break, given the light data calendars in both countries. Liquidity is also often a significant factor for this pairing over the holiday period, so any moves can be accentuated at times.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
NZD/AUD .9423 .9350 .9520 .9331 - .9445
AUD/NZD 1.0611 1.0504 1.0695 1.0588- -1.0717

Friday 18th December 2:30pm(NZT)
The New Zealand dollar has continued to gain against the Australian dollar through this week, although sits shy of its highs (~.9440, 1.0593) currently. The continued weakness seen in Australia’s key commodity pricing and a fiscal outlook which currently favours NZ over Australia have been two of the key factors which have kept this cross supported recently. There is little on the data calendar to change proceedings in the lead up to Xmas, so commodity moves and liquidity issues will dictate. First minor support is now seen ahead of .9350 (1.0695), key resistance beyond the weekly highs is seen around .9520 (1.0504).
The current interbank midrate is:    NZDAUD 0.9409    AUDNZD 1.0628

The interbank range this week has been:    NZDAUD 0.9280 - .9445    AUDNZD 1.0588 - 1.0776
Tuesday 15th December 2:00pm(NZT)
The New Zealand dollar has continued to firm against the Australian dollar since our last report, although sits off its ~.9370 highs (lows 1.0672). Despite the recent solid Australian data (which included a strong employment report last week), focus for this cross continues to remain on the outlook for Australia’s key critical commodity pricing, which currently is very AUD negative. First key support for this cross lies near .9200 (1.0870 resistance), whilst first NZD resistance lies near the recent highs at .9376 (low 1.0665). Pressure on this pair looks to remain to the NZ dollar upside, especially while commodity pricing remains weak. The RBA minutes today and GDT dairy price auction overnight form the immediate focus for this pair.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
NZD/AUD 0.9350 0.9200 0.9370 0.9133 - 0.9376
AUD/NZD 1.0651 1.0670 1.0870 1.0665 - 1.0949

Friday 11th December 2:30pm(NZT)
The New Zealand dollar has had a strong week against the Australian dollar this week. Gains capped out around the .9330 (low 1.0718) level after the strong rally seen by the NZD post the RBNZ meeting. A bumper Australian jobs report released later in the day has knocked the NZD off its highs however. Initial impetus for the moves during the week continued to come from the weakness seen in key AUD$ sensitive commodity prices. The current momentum is for a higher NZD for, now although we see yesterday’s peak as an attractive short-term selling opportunity. Initial support is seen around the .9200 (resistance 1.0870) level.
The current interbank midrate is:    NZDAUD 0.9297    AUDNZD 1.0756

The interbank range this week has been:    NZDAUD 0.9104 - 0.9328    AUDNZD 1.0720 - 1.0984
Tuesday 8th December 2:30pm(NZT)
The New Zealand dollar continued higher last week trading to highs near .9200 (1.0870) on Friday. Firm Australian data last week including Q3 GDP, which surpassed expectations, have been overlooked in recent days as the AUD has fallen victim to harsher commodity price inspired selling. Key iron ore prices which have recently broken below $US40/tonne continue to hurt the AUD. First support is noted around .9050 (1.1050). Thursday looms as a key day for this cross with the release of the RBNZ rate call and Australian employment data.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
NZD/AUD 0.9145 0.9050 0.9200 0.9054 - 0.9198
AUD/NZD 1.0935 1.0870 1.1050 1.0872 - 1.1045

Friday 4th December 2:00pm(NZT)
The New Zealand dollar continues to trade around the .9100 (1.0990) level against its Australian counterpart today. NZD highs (AUD lows) around .9150/60 (1.0929/1.0917) seen during the week, form immediate resistance. Initial NZD support is eyed around the weekly lows at the .9050 (1.1050-AUD resistance) level. Australian retail sales data this afternoon will form the immediate test for this cross. We see little to set a charge much beyond these extremities though until next Thursday when the RBNZ cash rate decision and Australian November employment data will be released.
The current interbank midrate is:    NZDAUD 0.9112    AUDNZD 1.0975

The interbank range this week has been:    NZDAUD 0.9054 - 0.9153    AUDNZD 1.0926 - 1.1045
Tuesday 1st December 4:00pm(NZT)
The New Zealand dollar trades around the .9120 (1.0965) level against its Australian counterpart today ahead of a heavy schedule of data which has the potential to move this cross considerably throughout the week. The first cue will come from the accompanying commentary to the RBA interest rate decision this afternoon (the RBA is extremely likely to keep rates unchanged at 2.00%). Australian Q3 GDP data tomorrow and the earlier GDT dairy price auction also will have a high chance of inducing further volatility. Initial resistance is pegged around .9160 (support~1.0915). First support is eyed around .9060 (resistance1.1038) and then .9015 (1.1093). Australian trade data on Thursday and retail sales on Friday should also be noted.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
NZD/AUD 0.9110 0.9015 0.9160 0.9020 - 0.9141
AUD/NZD 1.0977 1.0915 1.1093 1.0940 - 1.1086

Friday 27th November 2:30pm(NZT)
The New Zealand dollar has finally gained some reprieve against its Australian counterpart this week after the release of weak Australian Q3 CAPEX data yesterday. Initial declines to around .9020 (rallies to 1.1086) reversed after the data showed a 9.2% fall in investment during the quarter. Whether this NZD bounce can extend to resistance around .9160 (support 1.0917) will be heavily dependent on next week’s data calendar which includes the RBA cash rate announcement on Tuesday and Australian Q3 GDP/NZ GDT dairy price series releases on Wednesday.
The current interbank midrate is:    NZDAUD 0.9105    AUDNZD 1.0983

The interbank range this week has been:    NZDAUD 0.9020 - 0.9161    AUDNZD 1.0916 - 1.1086
Tuesday 24th November 3:00pm(NZT)
There is little on the horizon this week to change the current momentum which has the New Zealand dollar depreciating against its Australian counterpart this week. Australian private capital expenditure data on Thursday will have some degree of influence though. We cautiously favour continuing to sell NZD rallies in this cross, although we note the weak recent run. Initial resistance is pegged around the .9160 level (1.0917) while on the downside first support should be seen around .9000 (1.1111).
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
NZD/AUD 0.9055 0.9000 0.9160 0.9037 - 0.9161
AUD/NZD 1.1044 1.0917 1.1111 1.0916 - 1.1066

Thursday 19th November 1:00pm(NZT)
Although both the New Zealand dollar and the Australian dollar have seen some pressure this week on the back of declining commodities, it is the NZD that has underperformed. Another sizeable decline in dairy prices, although not completely unexpected, weighed heavily on the NZD and help the pair sustain a break below support around 0.9160 (above 1.0920). This has opened the way for a test toward 0.9000 (1.1110) over the coming week. So far the market has traded to a low of 0.9066 (high 1.1030) and the near term risks remain skewed to NZD underperformance. Next week looks like a quiet one datawise with only the trade balance from NZ, while from Australia we get private capital expenditure and the mid-year economic and fiscal outlook from the Treasury.
The current interbank midrate is:    NZDAUD 0.9105    AUDNZD 1.0983

The interbank range this week has been:    NZDAUD 0.9066 - 0.9304    AUDNZD 1.0748 - 1.1030
Tuesday 17th November 3:00pm(NZT)
The New Zealand dollar remains weak against the Australian dollar having failed to make much ground since last Thursday’s strong Australian October employment report. With the RBA minutes this afternoon likely to have little impact on this cross it is up to tonight’s GDT dairy auction to help arrest the NZD decline this week. Current pricing indicates another weak auction therefore current indications point to this move extending to around .9100 (1.0990) in the near term.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
NZD/AUD 0.9132 0.9100 0.9215 0.9119 - 0.9318
AUD/NZD 1.0951 1.0850 1.0990 1.0732 - 1.0967

Friday 13th November 2:00pm(NZT)
After gaining marginally early in the week the New Zealand dollar has again fallen sharply against its Australian counterpart after yesterday’s strong Australian October employment report. It currently trades just off its lows (.9160, highs 1.0917) but well down from highs near .9310 (lows near 1.0741) seen prior to the employment data. The next target for this move is around 0.9100 (1.0990), selling should now reside around the .9235 (1.0828) level. Key events to watch include the GDT dairy auction and NZ retail sales releases, the RBA minutes on Tuesday will also be of interest. We favour lower levels.
The current interbank midrate is:    NZDAUD 0.9175    AUDNZD 1.0899

The interbank range this week has been:    NZDAUD 0.9159 - 0.9318    AUDNZD 1.0732 - 1.0919
Tuesday 10th November 1:30pm(NZT)
The New Zealand dollar fell sharply last week against the Australian dollar. NZD highs near .9500 (1.0526) were quickly left behind after a combination of factors pushed the pair to NZD lows around .9200 (highs 1.0870) later in the week. These included a lack of a rate cut by the RBA (2.0%) on Tuesday. Adding to this was worse than expected decline in the latest GDT dairy auction prices (Wednesday morning) was promptly followed by a miss in the NZ Q3 employment data (-11k, vs. +10k exp.). The NZD has recovered from its lows after Friday’s U.S. labour report induced heavy selling on the AUD as key commodity prices fell after chances of an imminent U.S. interest rate hike were upgraded.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
NZD/AUD 0.9275 0.9200 0.9345 0.9190 - 0.9453
AUD/NZD 1.0782 1.0701 1.0870 1.0579 - 1.0882

Friday 6th November 1:00pm(NZT)
The New Zealand dollar has a poor week against the Australian dollar falling from opening highs near .9500 (1.0526) to lows under .9200 (1.0870). The falls were initially seen after the RBA remained on hold at its cash rate meeting (2.0%) and accelerated after the decline in the GDT dairy auction (-7.4%) and fall in NZ employment numbers observed in the September quarter (-11k). Australian employment data due for release on Thursday and the RBA minutes this afternoon will set direction for this cross over the next week. For now the bias is for further NZD downside with rallies likely to invite selling near .9350 (dips to 1.0695).
The current interbank midrate is:    NZDAUD 0.9250    AUDNZD 1.0811

The interbank range this week has been:    NZDAUD 0.9190 - 0.9529    AUDNZD 1.0494 - 1.0882
Tuesday 3rd November 5:30pm(NZT)
Data-flow over the next 24 hours and the RBA meeting today hold the key to the NZDAUD this week. The New Zealand dollar continues to see supply on gains against the Australian above .9500 (1.0525). The cross has the potential for a decent downward NZD correction should the RBA remain on hold today, data flow which favours Australia over NZ would add to the impetus. Initial demand should be seen around .9320 (resistance 1.0730) although a larger correction could test .9260 support (~1.0800resistance).
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
NZD/AUD 0.9435 0.9320 0.9525 0.9339 - 0.9529
AUD/NZD 1.0599 1.0730 1.0500 1.0494 - 1.0708

Friday 30th October 2:30pm(NZT)
The New Zealand dollar set fresh monthly highs this week against the Australian ahead of .9500 (1.0526) as the AUD reacted to a softer than expected Q3 inflation report and continued soft key commodity prices. We see this level as likely to continue to provide good levels to sell NZ dollars given the RBNZ’s concern over the elevated currency strength. The market may also be over-estimating the willingness of the RBA to cut at next week’s meeting on Tuesday. Retail sales in Australia and unemployment/dairy price data in NZ on Wednesday will also be important. Initial demand should be seen around .9320 (1.0730).
The current interbank midrate is:    NZDAUD 0.9467    AUDNZD 1.0563

The interbank range this week has been:    NZDAUD 0.9316 - 0.9481    AUDNZD 1.0547 - 1.0735
Tuesday 27th October 4:00pm(NZT)
The New Zealand dollar outperformed its Australian cousin for much of last week trading up to a high of 0.9456 (low 1.0575) on Friday afternoon. Increasing expectation for a RBA interest rate cut, to counter the out of cycle rate hikes by the major retail banks, certainly weighed on the Australian dollar. But, the currency did perform better than the NZD in the wake of the Chinese surprise rate cut announcement. This caused the cross to pull back to 0.9320 (rally to 1.0730) where it eventually ran out of steam. We have two key releases this week that could both influence the cross. Tomorrow sees Australian inflation data hit the wires, then on Thursday morning the RBNZ release their rate statement. The key NZD downside level to watch comes in around 0.9260 (resistance 1.0800). A breakthrough there may well open the way for a much broader correction for the NZD lower. If the pair remains contained above 0.9260 (below 1.0800), another rally toward 0.9450 (sell off to 1.0580) will likely develop.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
NZD/AUD 0.9340 0.9260 0.9460 0.9259 - 0.9455
AUD/NZD 1.0707 1.0571 1.0799 1.0576 - 1.0801

Friday 23rd October 1:30pm(NZT)
The New Zealand dollar continues to trade strongly against its Australian counterpart setting new highs on this up-move around .9440 (1.0593). Next resistance is close around .9450 (support 1.0582) and then .9500 (1.0526). Increased calls from the market for an RBA rate cut at the November meeting have helped drive sentiment after a third out-of-cycle variable mortgage rate increase by a major Australian bank was seen this morning. The overnight move of the NZD higher has been aided by illiquidity in the NZD. Next week’s RBNZ rate announcement and Australian inflation data will drive this cross over coming days.
The current interbank midrate is:    NZDAUD 0.9427    AUDNZD 1.0608

The interbank range this week has been:    NZDAUD 0.9259 - 0.9444    AUDNZD 1.0589 - 1.0801
Tuesday 20th October 1:25pm(NZT)
The New Zealand dollar continues to trade well against its Australian counterpart and was helped last week by increasing calls for an RBA rate cut after Westpac increased its variable rate mortgage pricing, prompting some to call for a counter move by the RBA. In contrast pricing for a series of further rate cuts by the RBNZ took a hit last week as Governor Wheeler expressed concerns over the impact such a move might have on inflation and the housing market. He also noted the need for room to move rates lower should the global economy deteriorate significantly. Today’s RBA minutes and the GDT dairy auction tonight will likely set the tone for this cross this week. We see decent headwinds for the NZDAUD cross after the recent large rally ahead of resistance at .9400 (support at 1.0638) and .9450 (1.0582).
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
NZD/AUD 0.9370 0.9220 0.9400 0.9105 - 0.9393
AUD/NZD 1.0672 1.0638 1.0846 1.0646 - 1.0983

Friday 16th October 3:00pm(NZT)
The New Zealand dollar continues to outperform its Australian counterpart with minor short term resistance nearby around .9215/20 (1.0845/50 support) now being challenged after this week's strong NZ GDT auction result. The AUD is also benefitting from firming commodity prices (gold, iron ore, oil) and heightened risk appetite but the short kiwi covering in the current environment may see this cross move towards more key resistance around .9260 (1.0800 support). Australian employment next Thursday will be pivotal for fresh direction in this cross.
The current interbank midrate is:    NZDAUD 0.9350             AUDNZD 1.0695

The interbank range this week has been:    NZDAUD .9105 - .9393  AUDNZD 1.0646 - 1.0983
Tuesday 13th October 2:00pm(NZT)
The New Zealand dollar has remained well bid against its Australian counterpart, although short term resistance nearby around .9215/20 (1.0845/50 support) continues to hold after last week's strong NZ GDT auction result. Further resistance is pegged around .9260 (1.0800 support). The AUD is benefitting from firming commodity prices, for now Australian employment data next Thursday and NZ Q3 CPI on Friday will be pivotal for fresh direction in this cross, although the momentum for a higher NZ dollar seen over recent weeks now appears to be waning.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
NZD/AUD 0.9125 0.9000 0.9220 0.9103 - 0.9208
AUD/NZD 1.0959 1.0845 1.1111 1.0860 - 1.0985

Friday 9th October 3:00pm(NZT)
The New Zealand dollar continues to outperform its Australian counterpart with minor short term resistance nearby around .9215/20 (1.0845/50 support) now being challenged after this week's strong NZ GDT auction result. The AUD is also benefitting from firming commodity prices (gold, iron ore, oil) and heightened risk appetite but the short kiwi covering in the current environment may see this cross move towards more key resistance around .9260 (1.0800 support). Australian employment next Thursday will be pivotal for fresh direction in this cross.
The current interbank midrate is:    NZDAUD 0.9175    AUDNZD 1.0899

The interbank range this week has been:    NZDAUD 0.9085 - 0.9208    AUDNZD 1.0860 -1.1007
Tuesday 6th October 2:00pm(NZT)
It has been an interesting week for this pair with the key 0.9160 resistance area (1.0917 support) broken last night. The New Zealand dollar has simply out performed its Australian cousin over recent days no doubt helped by positive expectations for another solid dairy action tonight. Caution ahead of today’s Reserve Bank of Australia rate statement will also have held the AUD back a touch and this release may well be key in determining near term direction for the pair. The break above 0.9160 (below 1.0917) is a positive signal as that level had capped the market for the past 3 months or so. If the pair can hold above there in the wake of today’s RBA statement, a broader move higher toward 0.9300 or even 0.9400 (1.0753 or 1.0638) may well unfold.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
NZD/AUD 0.9165 0.9160 0.9300 0.9041 - 0.9199
AUD/NZD 1.0911 1.0753 1.0917 1.0871 - 1.1061

Friday 2nd October 2:00pm(NZT)
The New Zealand dollar has spent much of this week ranging around the 0.9100 (1.0990) level to the Australian dollar. The pair hasn’t managed to test key topside resistance around 0.9160 (support 1.0920) which I suspect would cap any further potential NZ dollar strength. Those looking to purchase Australian dollars should consider dealing at current market rates, as the current risk / reward scenario looks to be skewed to the NZD downside. Australian retail sales data this afternoon could easily impact and a soft result here may see a move toward 0.9160 (1.0920), but that level has contained the pair since mid-June and it will continue to provide a tough barrier. In all likelihood we will eventually see something to trigger some relative Australian dollar outperformance and the pair will drift back lower toward 0.8900 (1.1235) or even 0.8800 (1.1360). Next week from NZ we have the NZIER’s quarterly survey of business opinion along with another dairy auction to digest. While from Australia the focus will be on Tuesday afternoons RBA rate statement.
The current interbank midrate is:    NZDAUD 0.9095    AUDNZD 1.0995

The interbank range this week has been:    NZDAUD 0.9005 - 0.9129    AUDNZD 1.0954 - 1.1105
Tuesday 29th Sept 3:00pm(NZT)
This pair continues to be defined by a broad trading range that has dominated for more than three months now. NZ Dollar support around 0.8850 (resistance 1.1300), and then again at 0.8750 (1.1430), has contained the downside, while on the topside there is strong resistance around 0.9160(support 1.0920). In the wake of last week’s upgraded Fonterra forecasts the New Zealand dollar recovered from the lower part of that range and in the past 24 hours the pair has traded as high as 0.9110 (low 1.0977). At this stage there is nothing to suggest a break out of the current range and so selling into any further NZD strength is recommended. From NZ this week we just have building consents and business confidence numbers to digest. While from Australia we also get building approvals along with retails sales data. Chinese manufacturing PMI will also draw attention and another soft result will likely pressure the AUD more than the NZD.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
NZD/AUD 0.9045 0.8850 0.9160 0.8841 - 0.9110
AUD/NZD 1.1056 1.0917 1.1299 1.0977 - 1.1311

Friday 25th September 2:00pm(NZT)
After spending more than a week languishing in the lower regions of the broad 0.8850 to 0.9150 (1.0930 - 1.1300) range that has dominated for the past three months, the New Zealand dollar has finally seen some demand. Australian dollar weakness has played a part in move, with economic sentiment very negative toward Australia at the moment. However, a large part of the gains has come in the wake of Fonterra’s upgraded pay-out forecasts. These have been the key factor in the NZD’s outperformance over the past 30 hours or so. The pair broke above minor resistance around 0.9000 (support 1.1111) last night, and it may well continue toward 0.9100 (1.0990) over the coming days.  The 0.9150/60 (1.0930/20) level should continue to provide a very tough barrier however, and those looking to purchase AUD’s should take advantage of any move toward that level.
The current interbank midrate is:    NZDAUD 0.9030    AUDNZD 1.1074

The interbank range this week has been:    NZDAUD 0.8828 - 0.9080    AUDNZD 1.1013 - 1.1328
Tuesday 22nd Sept 2:30pm(NZT)
There has been little overall direction in this pair over the past week with action in the wider market been the dominant driver. The New Zealand dollar has largely been languishing around in the lower reaches of the recent range and the downside continues to feel vulnerable. The next key support level comes in around 0.8750 (resistance 1.1430) and any break below there would be a NZD negative signal (positive AUD). There is little in the way of key data set for release from either country this week and as such the cross will continue to be driven by action in the wider market. A range of 0.8750 to 0.9000 (1.1110 - 1.1430) looks likely to contain trade over the rest of this week.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
NZD/AUD 0.8870 0.8750 0.9000 0.8813 - 0.8921
AUD/NZD 1.1274 1.1111 1.1429 1.1209 - 1.1347

Friday 18th September 2:50pm(NZT)
The New Zealand dollar has struggled against its Australian cousin this week and somewhat significantly we have seen a solid break below initial support around 0.8850 (resistance 1.1300). Action in the wider market has meant the cross has been very choppy in the past 24 hours, but for the time being the risks remain skewed to the NZ dollar downside. The next key level comes in around 0.8750 (1.1430). If that were to contain the NZD weakness, a recovery could develop. However, a sustained break through 0.8750 (1.1430) would suggest another broader NZD down leg is developing. The pair has spent the better part of three months ranging sideways and the odds are increasing that we could see a breakout towards a weaker NZD. Next week from New Zealand we have consumer sentiment, visitor arrivals and the trade balance to digest. While from Australia we get the house price index and the RBA’s financial stability review.
The current interbank midrate is:    NZDAUD 0.8850    AUDNZD 1.1299

The interbank range this week has been:    NZDAUD 0.8813 - 0.8944    AUDNZD 1.1181 - 1.1347
Tuesday 15th Sept 1:30pm(NZT)
It has been mostly one-way traffic for this pairing in the wake of last Thursday's RBNZ monetary policy statement and the better than forecast Australian employment data. The cross traded down to targeted support around the 0.8850 (resistance 1.1300) last night and is currently not far from that level. If we were to see a sustained break through 0.8850 (1.1300), it would open the way for a test of 0.8750 (1.1430). I would expect that level to contain this period of NZ dollar underperformance. Broadly speaking, there is no indication that the pair is going to break out of the range that has dominated for much of the past three months. As such, those looking to sell AUD and buy NZD should take advantage of current levels, or any further dips to 0.8750 (rally through to 1.1420), and take some risk off the table. Things may well get a little choppy on Thursday morning as the US Fed interest rate decision has the potential to create volatility across all currency pairs, and the wider financial markets in general.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
NZD/AUD 0.8850 0.8850 0.9160 0.8841 - 0.9136
AUD/NZD 1.1299 1.0917 1.1300 1.0946 - 1.1311

Friday 11th September 2:30pm(NZT)
This pair more than any has seen a big move in the wake of yesterday’s RBNZ monetary policy statement. The NZD squeeze in the 48 hours prior to that announcement took this pair to a high of 0.9136 (low of 1.0946), but the NZD has fallen very sharply since Governor Wheeler delivered a much more ‘dovish’ statement than expected. Part of the move has been driven by NZD weakness, but the latest leg lower has all been about Australian dollar strength. Yesterday’s release of Australian employment data was stronger than forecast and it has sparked a significant appreciation of the AUD. The duel drives of NZD weakness and AUD strength have seen the cross trade to a low of 0.8877 (high of 1.1265) in the past 12 hours. There is support around 0.8850 (resistance 1.1299), and if that goes then again at 0.8750 (1.1429). I would expect a solid test of the 0.8850 (1.1299) level in the not too distant future. I would also expect one of those two support levels to contain this period of NZD weakness. Those looking to purchase NZD’s should therefore take advantage of this NZD decline in the cross.
The current interbank midrate is:    NZDAUD 0.8920    AUDNZD 1.1211

The interbank range this week has been:    NZDAUD 0.8877 - 0.9136    AUDNZD 1.0946 - 1.1265
Tuesday 8st Sept 4:30pm(NZT)
Both the New Zealand dollar and the Australian dollar are seeing across the board pressure at the moment and as such the cross rate between the two countries continues to range between some increasingly familiar levels. Key resistance on the topside around 0.9160 (support 1.0920) has contained any periods of NZD strength since the pair broke through that level in early June. On the downside there is minor support around 0.9000 (upside resistance 1.1110) , but more importantly we have 0.8850 (1.1300) and then 0.8750 (1.1430) containing any NZD weakness. At this stage there seem little market motivation to severely test those boundaries. We do have the RBNZ monetary policy statement to digest on Thursday morning and this should create some volatility. Australian data in the form of business confidence, consumer sentiment and employment change will also draw attention.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
NZD/AUD 0.9020 0.8850 0.9160 0.8909 - 0.9134
AUD/NZD 1.1086 1.0917 1.1300 1.0949 - 1.1224

Friday 4th September 1:00pm(NZT)
A combination of improving NZ dairy prices and soft Australian data has seen this pair trade back up over 0.9100 (1.0990) in the past 12 hours. This has been a sharp turnaround from the lows of 0.8879 (highs 1.1263) that traded on Tuesday morning in the wake of Monday’s weak NZ business confidence data. We may well see another test toward key resistance around 0.9160 (support 1.0920) in the very near term, but I still expect that level to provide a very tough NZD topside barrier. With the prospect of a RBNZ interest rate cut next week there seems little reason for the pair break through there in the coming days. As such, a further period of ranging between support at 0.8850 (resistance 1.1300) and resistance at 0.9160 (support 1.0920) looks likely. That RBNZ interest rate meeting will provide the main focus next week, although from Australia we also get business confidence, consumer sentiment, inflation expectations and employment data to digest.
The current interbank midrate is:    NZDAUD 0.9120    AUDNZD 1.0965

The interbank range this week has been:    NZDAUD 0.8879 - 0.9124    AUDNZD 1.0960 - 1.1262
Tuesday 1st Sept 4:30pm(NZT)
The New Zealand dollar has lost ground to its Australian cousin this past week, driven lower by disappointing business confidence data. The pair broke below minor support around 0.9000 (resistance 1.1110) late last week and accelerated down to 0.8879 (1.1263) last night. There is support around 0.8850 (resistance 1.1300) and then again at 0.8750 (1.1430). I suspect 0.8850 (1.1300) will contain the NZD downside for now, although we do have some key releases out in the very near term that could influence. This afternoon we have the Reserve Bank of Australia’s rate statement to digest then tonight we have another dairy auction from Fonterra. Indications are that we could see another positive outcome for dairy prices and this should support the NZD to a degree. Taking a look at the bigger picture I expect a continuation of the broad consolidation and range trading between 0.8850 and 0.9160 (1.0970 - 1.1300) that we have seen since mid-June. Any dips below 0.8850 (above 1.1300) toward 0.8750 (1.1430) are a buying opportunity and haven’t lasted long over recent months.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
NZD/AUD 0.8950 0.8850 0.9160 0.8879 - 0.9135
AUD/NZD 1.1173 1.0917 1.1300 1.0947 - 1.1262

Friday 28th August 3:00pm(NZT)
Action in the wider market has been the main driver of this pair over the past week. Yesterday’s Australian private capital expenditure data did support the AUD somewhat, but it certainly hasn’t seen the pair break its recent range. Aside from a few crazy minutes on Monday night, when the market literally failed to operate in anything close to an orderly manner, this pair has spent the past week ranging between support at 0.9000 and resistance at 0.9160 (1.0920 - 1.1110). I continue to believe the lower NZ dollar bound of that range is the more vulnerable and therefore favour selling NZ dollars into any periods of strength toward 0.9160 (weakness to 1.0920). Next week from Australia we have building approvals, the RBA rate meeting, GDP, retail sales and the trade balance all set for release. While from NZ we have business confidence, building consents and other dairy auction to draw focus.
The current interbank midrate is:    NZDAUD 0.9030    AUDNZD 1.1074

The interbank range this week has been:    NZDAUD 0.8850 - 0.9150    AUDNZD 1.0929 - 1.1299
Tuesday 25th Aug 7:30pm(NZT)
The New Zealand dollar made gains against its Australian cousin last week trading right up to key resistance around 0.9160 (support 1.0917). We have seen a sharp rejection from that level however, thanks to volatility in the wider marker. Weakness in global stock markets caused some wild moves last night as liquidity completely dried up for a short time. Markets quickly composed themselves and in the end the NZDAUD was trading around the 0.9000 mark (AUDNZD 1.1110), but it just goes to show how fragile the situation is at the moment. I would look for the market to drift down back under 0.9000 (over 1.1110) in the coming days, but in this environment any prediction is even less certain than normal. We have a speech from RBA Governor Stevens to digest this week along with private capital expenditure data. From NZ we have the trade balance out tomorrow which shouldn’t have much impact considering what’s going on globally.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
NZD/AUD 0.9035 0.8850 0.9160 0.8850 - 0.9150
AUD/NZD 1.1068 1.0917 1.1300 1.0929 - 1.1299

Thursday 20th Aug 1:30pm (NZT)
After bouncing from support around 0.8850 (falling from resistance 1.1200) late last week the New Zealand dollar has drifted higher against its Australian cousin this week. Improving dairy prices have certainly helped the NZD, but this hasn’t been enough to see resistance around 0.9000 (support 1.1111) overcome. The market has had numerous attempts toward that level in the past 24 hours, but so far it’s managed to cap NZ dollars the topside. The repeated failures at 0.9000 (1.1111) suggest the risks are swinging back to NZ dollar underperformance for now. If we were to see a sustained break through 0.9000 (1.1111) this would open the way for a much broader correction potentially targeting the key 0.9160 (1.0920) area. Next week from NZ we have inflation expectations and the trade balance to digest. While from Australia private capital expenditure data will be the main focus.
The current interbank midrate is:    NZDAUD 0.8977    AUDNZD 1.1140

The interbank range this week has been:    NZDAUD 0.8847 - 0.9009    AUDNZD 1.1100 - 1.1303
Tuesday 18th Aug 1:30pm(NZT)
The past week has seen this pair trade nicely between the two initial support and resistance levels of 0.8850 and 0.9000 (1.1299 and 1.1111). In the first half of last week the cross tested the NZD top of that range, driven largely by volatility in the wake of the Chinese Yuan devaluation. As the week wore on the New Zealand dollar underperformed, most notably on Friday after disappoint NZ retails sales data was released. This helped to dive the pair down to support at 0.8850 (resistance at 1.1299), which contained the New Zealand dollar weakness. In the past 24 hours or so we have seen a bounce from that support level, no doubt helped by expectations that tonight’s dairy auction won’t produce another big decline. If that is indeed the case, the cross could easily drift back up toward 0.9000 (1.1111). For the time being look for a repeat of last week’s range. If we do get a break out in either direction there is much stronger support around 0.8750 (resistance 1.1429), and much stronger resistance around 0.9160 (support 1.0917).
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
NZD/AUD 0.8929 0.8850 0.9000 0.8847 - 0.9009
AUD/NZD 1.1199 1.1050 1.1300 1.1100 - 1.1303

Friday 14th August 1:00pm(NZT)
Action in the wider market, thanks to the Chinese devaluation of the Yuan, has been the driver of this pair over the past week. The Australian dollar underperformed in the first half of the week and this saw the cross drift up to resistance around 0.9000 (support 1.1111). The pair couldn’t kick on and in recent days it has been the New Zealand dollar that has underperformed. Expect the pair to continue more of this broad range trading over the coming week. Initial support is seen around 0.8850 (resistance 1.1300) with stronger support around 0.8750 (1.1430). On the NZD topside we have resistance around 0.9000 (support 1.1111) protecting the much stronger level of 0.9160 (1.0920). Next week from NZ we have another dairy auction, producer prices and inflation expectations data. While from Australia the focus will be on the RBA’s minutes set for release on Tuesday.
The current interbank midrate is:    NZDAUD 0.8890    AUDNZD 1.1249

The interbank range this week has been:    NZDAUD 0.8857 - 0.9009    AUDNZD 1.1100 - 1.1290
Tuesday 11th Aug 2:30pm(NZT)
This pair has staged a small recovery from 0.8850 support (1.1300 resistance) that was tested on Thursday last week. It’s fair to say that there has been very little real direction in recent days with a tight range above 0.8900 developing (below 1.1235). I suspect we could easily see a drift back up toward 0.9000 (1.1110) over the course of this week. I continue to see 0.8850 (1.1300) limiting the NZ dollar downside for now. There was little in the way of follow through selling in the NZD late last week and this is an indication that much negativity is already priced into the NZD. With only retail sales data set for release from NZ on Friday, the market is going to struggle to find fresh reasons to sell the NZD over the next few days. The real driver of the pair may come from Australian data in the form of business confidence, consumer sentiment, and the wage price index all set for release in the next 48 hours.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
NZD/AUD 0.8917 0.8850 0.9050 0.8839 - 0.9034
AUD/NZD 1.1215 1.1050 1.1300 1.1069 - 1.1314

Friday 7th August 11: 35am(NZT)
It has been a big week of movement in this pair. The Australian dollar saw increased demand following the stronger than expected data set and less “dovish” stance from the RBA in their monetary policy statement. Adding to the AUD outperformance through the belly of the week were the weak NZ data release, and flow of Original Energy’s sale proceeds from the Contact Energy transaction. The movement was quite violent at times before NZD support around .8850 (resistance 1.1300) finally stemmed the move. From there we have seen a grind back in demand from the NZ dollar, to far more neutral levels above .8900 (below 1.1235). Overall the pair remains in its recent wider trading band, albeit the NZD support at .8850 (resistance 1.1300) remains the most vulnerable side of the range in the short term. The data set next week should not be of too much impact with Friday’s NZ retail sales data providing the primary focus in what is a relatively quiet week for news.
The current interbank midrate is:    NZDAUD 0.8913    AUDNZD 1.1220

The interbank range this week has been:    NZDAUD .8839 - .9082    AUDNZD 1.1011 - 1.1314
Tuesday 4th Aug 1:30pm(NZT)
Some relative strength in the New Zealand dollar saw this pair peak mid last week around key resistance at 0.9160 (support around 1.0917). Since then the cross has drifted lower testing 0.9000 support (1.1111 resistance) on a couple of occasions. A sustained break below 0.9000 (above 1.1111) would open the way for a further NZ dollar losses potentially toward 0.8850 (1.1299). Longer term however, we may be in for further consolidation between 0.8850 and 0.9160 (1.1299 and 1.0917). There is plenty of data this week that could influence starting with Australian retail sales and the RBA rate statement this afternoon. Tonight we get the latest Fonterra dairy auction, then on Wednesday and Thursday respectively we get NZ and Australian employment data.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
NZD/AUD 0.9025 0.9000 0.9160 0.8994 - 0.9177
AUD/NZD 1.1080 1.0917 1.1111 1.0897 - 1.1118

Friday 31st July 2:00pm(NZT)
The New Zealand dollar made continued gains against its Australian cousin in the first half of the week, eventually testing key topside resistance around 0.9160/70 (support 1.0900-1.0920). As expected, that level provided a tough NZD topside barrier and with the pair failing to sustain any break through that level, NZ dollar sellers returned to the market and pushed the pair back down. Over the coming week I would now expect to see further ranging between 0.9170 and 0.9000 (1.1110 - 1.0990). The risks to that outlook are probably skewed to the NZ dollar downside and a break back through 0.9000 (1.1110). From Australia next week we have retail sales, the RBA rate meeting, the trade balance and employment data all set for release. While from NZ we also get employment data along with another dairy auction from Fonterra.
The current interbank midrate is:    NZDAUD 0.9055    AUDNZD 1.1044

The interbank range this week has been:    NZDAUD 0.8974 - 0.9177    AUDNZD 1.0897 - 1.1143
Tuesday 28th July 3:00pm(NZT)
Although the current environment is broadly negative for both currencies, the New Zealand dollar has managed to outperform the Australian dollar this past week. The AUD is suffering more than the NZD on the back of poor Chinese data, declining Chinese stocks, and the negative outlook for commodities. A very short (sold) NZD market is also playing a part with position squaring in the NZD providing a level of support for the currency. There is potential for this to continue when RBNZ Governor Wheeler speaks tomorrow. While still signalling further interest rate cuts are likely, Wheeler may well come across less ‘dovish’ than many expect, as was the case in the wake of last week’s RBNZ rate statement. RBA Governor Stevens is also set to speak this week and as such there is plenty of potential for volatility. The balance of risks at the moment suggest a test of key resistance around 0.9160 (support 1.0920) is on the cards. That should provide a tough NZD topside barrier, at least in the short term.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
NZD/AUD 0.9127 0.9000 0.9160 0.8905 - 0.9092
AUD/NZD 1.0957 1.0917 1.1111 1.0999 - 1.1230

Friday 24th July 1:30pm(NZT)
It has been a week of gains for the pair on the back of relative NZD strength. With record levels of speculative short (sold) positions in the NZD the market really needed a good reason to encourage further NZD selling. Yesterday’s interest rate cut from the RBNZ was fully expected, and the statement probably wasn’t as ‘dovish’ as some would have liked. As a result the NZD squeezed higher and in the wake of the announcement and that squeeze continued on into the London session. The pair traded as high as 0.9035 (1.1068 low) before finally running out of steam. A slow drift lower now back toward 0.8900 (upto 1.1235) is the most likely scenario in the near term. Looking further out we may be in for more consolidation between the broad parameters of 0.8750 and 0.9060 (1.1040 - 1.1430). Next week from NZ we only have building consents and business confidence set for release. While from Australia we have building approvals, import prices and producer prices data.
The current interbank midrate is:    NZDAUD 0.8990    AUDNZD 1.1123

The interbank range this week has been:    NZDAUD 0.8789 - 0.9035    AUDNZD 1.1068 - 1.1379
Tuesday 21th July 5:00pm(NZT)
After declining to .8789 (1.1378) late last week, we have seen the NZD recover some ground in recent days. The gains in New Zealand dollar performance were helped in large part by comments from PM John Key Yesterday. The bigger picture is one of consolidation for the cross between the broad parameters of 0.8750 and 0.9060 (1.1429 and 1.1038), after the steep NZD declines seen since late April's test toward parity. The RBNZ’s rate statement on Thursday morning could well add some volatility, but further consolidation within those broad parameters is expected over the coming week. Tomorrow from Australia we have inflation data to digest, followed by a speech from Governor Stevens.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
NZD/AUD 0.8930 0.8750 0.9060 0.8789 - 0.9042
AUD/NZD 1.1198 1.1038 1.1429 1.1060 - 1.1379

Friday 17th July 1:30pm(NZT)
Both the New Zealand dollar and the Australian dollar have seen pressure this week, but it is the NZD that has dramatically underperformed. Another big fall in dairy prices weighed heavily on the NZD and further downside came in the wake of yesterdays softer than forecast inflation data. Once the pair broke back below minor support around 0.9000 (resistance around 1.1299), it fell sharply trading to a low of 0.8789 (high of 1.1378) last night. The 0.8750 low (1.1429 high) from earlier in July is now in sight and may well prove something of a magnet. The Reserve Bank of NZ (RBNZ) meet next week and with an interest rate cut almost certain, the NZD should continue to trade heavily. From Australia next week we have the RBA minutes along with inflation and a speech from Governor Stevens to digest.
The current interbank midrate is:    NZDAUD 0.8800    AUDNZD 1.1364

The interbank range this week has been:    NZDAUD 0.8789 - 0.9069    AUDNZD 1.1027 - 1.1378
Tuesday 14th July 4:00pm(NZT)
After squeezing higher in the first half of last week, as risk off sentiment swept the market, this pair has largely been side-lined and a tight range has developed. The New Zealand dollar seems comfortable for the time being trading around 0.9040 (1.1062) to its Australian cousin. Minor support around 0.9000 (resistance around 1.1111) has contained the NZD downside over recent days and this keeps open the prospect of a test toward key resistance around 0.9160 (support around 1.0917). Any move back below 0.9000 (above 1.1111) would quickly turn the focus back to the NZD downside. The key to near term direction however may well lie in a couple of releases from NZ this week. First up we have another dairy auction to digest then on Thursday morning we get the Q2 inflation figure. Australian data could also influence, starting with business confidence this afternoon. Later in the week we get consumer sentiment and inflation expectations figures.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
NZD/AUD 0.9005 0.8850 0.9160 0.8889 - 0.9069
AUD/NZD 1.1105 1.0917 1.1299 1.1027 - 1.1250

Friday 10th July 3:30pm(NZT)
The New Zealand dollar has made good gains against its Australian cousin this week. Wednesday night in particular saw a sharp move to the topside as the AUD came under pressure and the NZD squeezed higher across the board. The resistance level around 0.9000 (support 1.1110) failed to provide much of a barrier, and once overcome, it then became solid support on the NZD  downside. The pair bounced off that level last night before heading back to the week’s NZ dollar high. The pressure on the Australian dollar came as Chinese stocks continued to collapse, commodities remained weak, and Greek uncertainty increased. At any other time those same factors could easily have weighed on the New Zealand dollar as well, but with record levels of short (sold) positions in the NZD, market positioning took over. Short (sold) positions rushed to buy them back and it became self-fulfilling driving the NZD higher. The market is still short NZD and further gains could be on the cards. The next key level resistance level is around 0.9160 (1.0920) and that will remain the target as long as the market holds above 0.9000 (below 1.1110). From Australia next week we have business confidence, consumer sentiment and inflation expectations data. While from NZ we have another dairy action to digest along with inflation data.
The current interbank midrate is:    NZDAUD 0.9025    AUDNZD 1.1080

The interbank range this week has been:    NZDAUD 0.8796 - 0.9069    AUDNZD 1.1027 - 1.1369
Tuesday 7th July 2:30pm(NZT)
The past week has seen a sharp recovery in this pair after trading to a low of 0.8749 (1.1430 high) last Thursday. The  NZ dollar bounce was largely driven by dramatic underperformance of the Australian dollar. The AUD has suffered as economic data disappointed and iron ore prices saw renewed weakness. This helped drive the pair back up through the key 0.8850 (1.1300) level and back over 0.8900 (under 1.1235). The next topside resistance level comes in around 0.9000 (support 1.1110) and I would expect that to cap any further gains over the coming week. The RBA release their rate statement later this afternoon which provides the immediate focus. Later in the week we also have Australian employment data to digest.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
NZD/AUD 0.8920 0.8850 0.9000 0.8749 - 0.8940
AUD/NZD 1.1211 1.1111 1.1299 1.1185 - 1.1430

Thursday 2nd July 2:30pm(NZT)
The New Zealand dollar has suffered at the hands of a reasonably strong Australian dollar this week. The key support level of 0.8850 (resistance 1.1300) finally gave and the pair plummeted to a low so far of 0.8761 (high of 1.1415). Declining NZ business confidence hasn’t helped the NZD and last night’s poor dairy auction will keep the focus on the NZD downside. The 0.8850 (1.130) level will now provide a tough topside NZD dollar barrier and it’s likely to cap any periods of near term strength. The next support level is around 0.8600 (resistance 1.1630) and the NZ dollar may well look to consolidate recent losses by ranging between those two levels for a time. Next week from NZ to draw focus we have NZIER business confidence along with the business NZ manufacturing index. While from Australia we have the RBA rate statement and employment change numbers to digest.
The current interbank midrate is:    NZDAUD 0.8780    AUDNZD 1.1390

The interbank range this week has been:    NZDAUD 0.8761 - 0.8990    AUDNZD 1.1124 - 1.1415
Tuesday 30th June 2:00pm(NZT)
With no key data released from either country recently, this pair has been driven by volatility in the wider market. In early trade yesterday morning as both the NZD and AUD were seeing pressure on the back of risk aversion thanks to the Greek situation, the cross briefly traded as high as 0.8978 (lows 1.1138). Since then we have seen a steady NZ dollar decline back toward 0.8900 (1.1235). If we were to see further dramatic falls in Chinese stock markets, this would weight on the Australian dollar more than the New Zealand currency, and the pair could test back toward 0.9000 (1.1110). The Chinese central bank's decision to easy aggressively over the weekend should provide some, at least temporary, respite for Chinese stocks and the AUD. With that in mind we are likely to see further ranging between 0.8850 and 0.9000 (1.1110 - 1.1300) over the coming days. One must be mindful however, of the increased volatility seen in markets recently and the potential for unforeseen events to dramatically impact prices.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
NZD/AUD 0.8890 0.8850 0.9170 0.8851 - 0.8978
AUD/NZD 1.1249 1.0905 1.1299 1.1139 - 1.1298

Friday 26th June 2:00pm(NZT)
It has been a very interesting week for this pair. The New Zealand dollar repeatedly tested key support around 0.8850 (resistance around 1.1299) over the past seven days, but its failure to break through eventually saw the start of a NZ dollar correction higher. That correcting has taken the pair to 0.8953 (1.1169) so far, and it would be higher still if the RBNZ hadn’t pre-empted strong NZ trade balance data, with some negative comments earlier this morning. There are indications that the market is very short (sold) New Zealand dollars, and this increases the risk of the correction extending higher. I expect a test of initial resistance around 0.9000 (support around 1.1111) over the coming week. If 0.9000 (1.1111) caps the NZD topside, the market could turn back down. Any move above 0.9000 (below 1.1111) however, would open the way for further gains toward the key level of 0.9160 (1.0917). That level should cap any NZ dollar appreciation over the coming weeks and selling ahead of there is recommend for those looking to purchase Australian dollars.
The current interbank midrate is:    NZDAUD 0.8915    AUDNZD 1.1217

The interbank range this week has been:    NZDAUD 0.8851 - 0.8953    AUDNZD 1.1169 - 1.1298
Tuesday 23th June 2:30pm(NZT)
The New Zealand dollar remains under pressure since last week’s GDP data. In the past 24 hours this pair has once again tested levels toward key support around 0.8850 (resistance 1.1300). There was a real lack of momentum in the move however, and as such the level was never seriously threatened. We have now seen two failed attempts toward that level in the past week and this may encourage some buying which could easily see a broader correction toward 0.9000 (1.1110) develop. I do favour something of a corrective NZD bounce unfolding over the coming week. There is no key fundamental data from either country scheduled for release that is likely to provide enough drive to cause a break below 0.8850 (above 1.1300).
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
NZD/AUD 0.8900 0.8850 0.9170 0.8854 - 0.9031
AUD/NZD 1.1236 1.0905 1.1299 1.1073 - 1.1295

Thursday 17th June 2:00pm(NZT)
The New Zealand dollar spent much of this week consolidating recent losses against the AUD in a tight trading range just above 0.9000 (below 1.1111). That all changed in the wake of this morning’s very soft NZ GDP data. The market was disappointed with the 0.2% outcome and as such the NZD got hit hard again. Against the AUD the NZD is now not far off 0.8900 (1.1236) and a test of key support at 0.8850 (resistance at 1.1299) may well develop over the coming days. I would expect that level to hold on the initial attempt at least. However, it will come under increasing pressure if NZ data continues to disappoint. Next week from NZ we have consumer sentiment, credit card spending and trade balance data. While from Australia there is only the house price index of any note.
The current interbank midrate is:    NZDAUD 0.8925    AUDNZD 1.1204

The interbank range this week has been:    NZDAUD 0.8915 - 0.9126    AUDNZD 1.0958 - 1.121
Tuesday 16th June 2:30pm(NZT)
The New Zealand dollar has remained very heavy in the wake of last Thursday’s RBNZ interest rate cut. After collapsing toward 0.9040 (1.1062) in the immediate aftermath of that cut, the cross has failed to see any meaningful NZD bounce and has actually continued to grind out fresh NZD lows just below 0.9000 (above 1.1110). If we do happen to see a period of relative NZD strength the pair will run into strong resistance around the 0.9170 level (support 1.0900) which I suspect will cap it. The medium term target is now a test of support around 0.8850 (resistance 1.1300). We do have the RBA minutes out in the next hour to draw focus and these could provide some volatility. Tonight we also have another Fonterra dairy auction to digest then on Thursday we get NZ GDP data.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
NZD/AUD 0.9020 0.8850 0.9170 0.8996 - 0.9332
AUD/NZD 1.1086 1.0905 1.1299 1.0715 - 1.1116

Friday 12th June 2:00pm(NZT)
Price action in this pair over the past week has been dominated by the sharp New Zealand dollar losses seen in the wake of yesterday’s decision by the central bank to cut interest rates. The RBNZ caught many by surprise with the move and the reaction on the currency was brutal. Against the Australian dollar the pair literally fell from 0.9280 to 0.9070 (1.0775 - 1.1025) in a few seconds as there were no NZD buyers in sight. We then saw further NZD losses to 0.9025 (1.1080) a few hours later after Australian employment data surprised on the strong side. After such a sharp move there is always potential for a corrective bounce, but if we do see some strength I can only imagine NZ dollar sellers will be lined up ahead of the key 0.9160 (1.0920) level. Expect that level to cap the market over the coming weeks with downside support now coming in at 0.8850 (1.1300 resistance). We may well see the market now spend some time, potentially even months, ranging between those two levels i.e. 0.8850 and 0.9160 (1.0920/1.1300).
The current interbank midrate is:    NZDAUD 0.9060    AUDNZD 1.1038

The interbank range this week has been:    NZDAUD 0.9025 - 0.9332    AUDNZD 1.0715 - 1.1080
Tuesday 9th June 2:00pm(NZT)
The key NZD support level in this pairing of 0.9170 (1.0905) was tested again late last week and for the second time in as many months it contained the NZ dollar downside. Since then we have seen a gradual recovery, helped by disappointing retail sales and trade balance data out of Australia. We may well be in for an extended period of ranging as the pair seems comfortable bouncing between 0.9170 support (resistance 1.0905) and 0.9450 resistance (support 1.0582) on the NZD upside. This week could well prove to be very volatile however with the RBNZ monetary policy statement and a number Australian data points set for release. Whether or not the RBNZ cut interest rates is a close call and as such the NZD will react either way. From Australia we get business confidence data today, followed by consumer sentiment and employment change figures later in the week. RBA Governor Stevens is also set to speak tomorrow afternoon. If we were to see a sustained break below 0.9170 (above 1.0905) it will quickly shift the focus to much broader NZD decline targeting 0.8850 (1.1300).
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
NZD/AUD 0.9255 0.9170 0.9450 0.9164 - 0.9339
AUD/NZD 1.0805 1.0582 1.0905 1.0708 - 1.0913

Friday 5th June 1:00pm(NZT)
The first half of this week saw the New Zealand dollar remain under pressure from its Australian counterpart. Another decline in dairy prices certainly didn’t help the NZD, while the Australian dollar gained ground in the wake of the RBA’s rate statement and better than forecast GDP data. These factors help drive the cross back down to key support around 0.9170 (resistance around 1.0905). That level has once again held on the downside and a recovery toward 0.9300 (1.0753) developed. Poor Australian data out yesterday in the form of retails sales and the trade balance helped to underpin the recovery and the market will now look toward a number of key releases out next week for direction. From Australia we have business confidence, consumer sentiment, inflation expectations and employment change all set for release. While from NZ we get the RBNZ interest rate meeting and monetary policy statement set for release on Thursday. A number of forecasters are calling for a rate cut from the RBNZ, although there is certainly no consensus on the matter. If the Reserve Bank hold off easing the cash rate, as we expect, the New Zealand dollar will likely gain ground on the AUD and this could easily see the pair back toward 0.9400 (1.0638). If the RBNZ do in fact cut interest rates, I suspect key support around 0.9170 (resistance around 1.0905) to come under heavy pressure.
The current interbank midrate is:    NZDAUD 0.9268    AUDNZD 1.0790

The interbank range this week has been:    NZDAUD 0.9164 - 0.9394    AUDNZD 1.0645 - 1.0913
Tuesday 2nd June 2:30pm(NZT)
The New Zealand dollar’s corrective bounce against the Australian dollar ran out of steam at 0.9452 (1.0580) on Thursday last week. That NZD high was very short lived and since then we have seen the pair trade all the way back down to 0.9265 (up to 1.0793). This was helped along by Friday’s release of declining NZ business confidence data. We have the Reserve Bank of Australia interest rate meeting to digest this afternoon and that may well add some volatility. The broader trend is towards NZD underperformance and this would suggest the risks are skewed toward another test below 0.9200 (above 1.0870) at some stage. But we can’t rule out another test toward 0.9400 (1.0638) if the RBA surprise with a very ‘dovish’ statement. This would, I believe provide a NZD selling opportunity. Later in the week from Australia we get GDP, retail sales, and trade balance data to digest. While from NZ the economic calendar is a little light with only another dairy auction from Fonterra to draw focus.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
NZD/AUD 0.9318 0.9170 0.9420 0.9265 - 0.9452
AUD/NZD 1.0732 1.0616 1.0905 1.0580 - 1.0793

Friday 29th May 2:00pm(NZT)
Since touching a low of 0.9164 (high or 1.0912) on the 13th May, the New Zealand dollar has stage a very gradual corrective bounce against the Australian dollar. My target for this recovery was the 0.9420 (1.0616) area and yesterday that was finally achieved. The cross has actually seen some volatile price action in the past 24 hours, with a brief flurry to 0.9452 (1.0580) in the immediate aftermath of poor Australian capital expenditure data. But this was short lived and weakness in the NZD overnight quickly drove prices back down to 0.9360 (1.0684). Near term direction is now a lot less certain. We could see some further investigations above 0.9420 (1.0616), although I believe these will not be sustained and therefore provide a good selling opportunity. Key support on the downside now comes in around 0.9340 (resistance 1.0707) and any break below there will likely signal the start of a move back toward 0.9200 (1.0870). From NZ next week we only have the overseas trade index and another Fonterra dairy auction of any note. While from Australia we have building approvals, GDP, trade balance data, and an RBA rate meeting to digest.
The current interbank midrate is:    NZDAUD 0.9360    AUDNZD 1.0684

The interbank range this week has been:    NZDAUD 0.9302 - 0.9452    AUDNZD 1.0580 - 1.0750
Tuesday 26th May 2:00pm(NZT)
After a prolonged period of sideways trading around 0.9280 (1.0776), the New Zealand dollar managed to break out of its increasingly tight range against the Australian dollar with a move to the topside on Friday afternoon. So far the pair has made it toward minor resistance at 0.9360 (support at 1.0684), but quiet trading conditions in the early stages of this week has seen that level cap. There is still potential for a move toward the stronger resistance level of 0.9420 (support level of 1.0616), as long as the market can hold above support now seen at 0.9310 (below resistance at 1.0741). Any move down through 0.9310 (up through 1.0616) would be a weak signal and negate the current bullish outlook. Still to come this week from Australia we have private capital expenditure and construction work done data, along with a speech from RBA deputy governor Lowe. While from NZ we have building consents and business confidence numbers to digest.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
NZD/AUD 0.9345 0.9310 0.9420 0.9218 - 0.9354
AUD/NZD 1.0701 1.0616 1.0741 1.0690 - 1.0849

Friday 22nd May 2:00pm(NZT)
It has been a very quiet week for this pairing which has been stuck in a range of 0.9220 to 0.9320 (1.0846 to 1.0730). Over recent days that range has become even smaller with 0.9260 to 0.9310 (1.0799 to 1.0741) containing trade. This won’t last for much longer however and the question is which way will it break? The broader trend is to the downside having fallen sharply from levels near parity one month ago. However, I suspect the negative NZD sentiment that drove that steep decline was a little over done and as such I’m looking for the pair to break above 0.9310 (below 1.0741) and recover back toward 0.9420 (1.0616). From NZ next week we have the trade balance, building consents and business confidence data to draw focus. While from Australia we get data on construction work done along with private capital expenditure.
The current interbank midrate is:    NZDAUD 0.9303    AUDNZD 1.0749

The interbank range this week has been:    NZDAUD 0.9218 - 0.9313    AUDNZD 1.0737 - 1.0849
Tuesday 19th May 1:00pm(NZT)
After the big declines of the past month, this pair seems to be taking a breather as trade consolidates between the levels of 0.9220 and 0.9320 (1.0846 and 1.0730). Key downside support comes in around 0.9170 (topside resistance 1.0905) and while above that level a broader correction toward 0.9360 or potentially 0.9420 (1.0684 or 1.0616) could still unfold. Over the coming hours we have the Reserve Bank of Australia minutes to digest along with NZ inflation expectations. Both these releases could easily add volatility to the market. Later in the week from Australia we also get inflation expectations data along with consumer sentiment numbers. From NZ the latest Global Dairy Trade auction will draw focus as will the government's budget release.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
NZD/AUD 0.9228 0.9170 0.9360 0.9187 - 0.9313
AUD/NZD 1.0837 1.0684 1.0905 1.0737 - 1.0885

Friday 15th May 1:30pm(NZT)
This pair opened the week on a very soft note after ANZ bank chose the extremely thin market conditions of early Monday morning to release their research note calling for interest rate cuts from the RBNZ in June and July. This caused the NZD to fall down through recent lows against the AUD and the pressure was maintained all the way up until Wednesday’s RBNZ financial stability report. The pair briefly touched a low of 0.9187 before staging a quick recovery in the wake of that report. There is a key support level around 0.9170 and the quick bounce from close to there on Wednesday has only served to reinforce it. So far that bounce has been capped around 0.9300, but I suspect a broader recovery toward 0.9420 could develop over the coming week. From NZ next week we have inflation expectations data along with another dairy auction from Fonterra and the annual budget release. In Australia attention will turn to the Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes, along with consumer sentiment and inflation expectations data.
The current interbank midrate is:    NZDAUD 0.9260    AUDNZD 1.0799

The interbank range this week has been:    NZDAUD 0.9187 - 0.9471    AUDNZD 1.0559 - 1.0885
Tuesday 12th May 1:00pm(NZT)
It has been largely one-way traffic for this pair over the past week as the intense selling pressure remains. Ever since last week’s NZ employment data the calls for an interest rate cut from the RBNZ have been growing. This has kept the New Zealand dollar on the back foot and it’s currently trading close to the week’s low. We have now seen close to a 7% fall in the past three weeks and further losses seen last night suggest the downside may not be done yet. The next level of support come in around 0.9260 (resistance around 1.0799) and the pair may try to stage something of a corrective NZD bounce from there. On the topside 0.9420 now provides the initial resistance (downside support at 1.0616) level. In NZ the focus now turns to tomorrow’s RBNZ financial stability report and then Thursday’s retail sales data. While from Australia this week we have the Annual budget release tonight followed by tomorrow’s wage price index.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
NZD/AUD 0.9295 0.9260 0.9420 0.9295 - 0.9658
AUD/NZD 1.0758 1.0616 1.0799 1.0354 - 1.0759

Friday 8th May 1:30pm(NZT)
We have seen further losses for the NZD in this pairing over the past week, as the brutal pull back continues from levels near parity that were trading only two weeks ago. Sharp NZD losses were seen in the wake of the RBA’s interest rate decision, and then again on the back of disappointing NZ employment data. The pair traded below 0.9400 (high as 1.0638) for a time, but indicators are suggesting it’s become somewhat oversold and this would suggest downside momentum is waning. That doesn’t rule out further tests of the downside, but it does mean they are unlikely to be sustained in the short term. Those looking to purchase New Zealand dollars should take advantage of any periods of weakness that see the pair below 0.9400 (above 1.0638). Initial topside resistance comes in around 0.9500 (support around 1.0526) and that will be the target for any potential corrective bounce. Next week from NZ we have the RBNZ financial stability report, a speech from Governor Wheeler, the Business NZ manufacturing index and retails sales data. While from Australia we get NAB business confidence, the annual budget release, home loans and the wage price index.
The current interbank midrate is:    NZDAUD 0.9430    AUDNZD 1.0605

The interbank range this week has been:    NZDAUD 0.9362 - 0.9658    AUDNZD 1.0354 - 1.0682
Tuesday 5th May 2:00pm(NZT)
This pair continued is pullback from recent highs last week helped along by a somewhat dovish stance from the RBNZ. The pair traded all the way towards 0.9500 (1.0525) before staging a quick bounce back through 0.9600 (1.0420). Since then a very tight range has developed with the market now firmly focused on today’s Reserve Bank of Australia interest rate decision. There has been a growing expectation that we will see a rate cut and if that is the case the Australian dollar will see some pressure. This could easily drive the pair back up to 0.9700 (1.0310). If the RBA surprise the market and keep interest rates steady we will see a sharp fall in this pair with support around 0.9500 (resistance 1.0525) likely giving way to further NZD losses. With the RBA decision out of the way, attention will turn to tonight’s dairy auction and then employment data from NZ tomorrow and Australia on Thursday.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
NZD/AUD 0.9620 0.9500 0.9700 0.9506 - 0.9743
AUD/NZD 1.0395 1.0309 1.0526 1.0264 - 1.0519

Friday 1st May 2:45pm(NZT)
For much of this week the Australian dollar was the standout performer, boosted by improving iron ore prices and increasing doubt about a rate cut by the RBA at next week’s meeting. The New Zealand dollar on the other hand has been on the back foot ever since the RBNZ deputy governor delivered a ‘dovish’ speech mid last week. This combination of factors saw the NZD continue its sharp correction lower and the pair a test of support around 0.9500 (resistance 1.0525) was seen yesterday in the wake of the RBNZ rate statement. That statement largely repeated the tone of deputy governor McDermott’s previous speech and confirmed the central bank has a slight easing bias. Early yesterday evening we saw the pair put in a vicious bounce from support around 0.9500 (fall from 1.0525) driven by a wave of AUD selling. The trigger for this bout of AUD weakness was an article in the Sydney Morning Herald by a respected reporter that said the RBA will cut rates when they meet next week. That RBA meeting will be the main focus for the week and with some real doubt in the market about the outcome, we should get a good reaction either way. 0.9500 (1.0525) should continue to provide good NZD support, while the pair will run into resistance around 0.9700 (support 1.0310) and then again at 0.9800 (1.0205). The fundamental shift in stance from the RBNZ over the past 10 days has pretty much taken the chance of parity for the pair off the table. Those who are still looking to purchase Australian dollars with NZD should target levels just below 0.9700 (above 1.0310) or potentially 0.9800(1.0200). At this stage I would be very surprised to see a return to levels over 0.9800(1.0200) for this pair.
The current interbank midrate is:    NZDAUD 0.9615    AUDNZD 1.0400

The interbank range this week has been:    NZDAUD 0.9506 - 0.9767    AUDNZD 1.0239 - 1.0519
Tuesday 28th Apr 3:30pm(NZT)
The New Zealand dollar has lost significant ground to the Australian dollar over the past week. Softer than expected NZ inflation contrasted with a stronger than forecast Australian inflation result and this started the correction lower in the pair. Since then we have seen expectations increase for a somewhat ‘dovish’ RBNZ rate statement on Thursday, thanks largely to a speech from Deputy Governor McDermott last Thursday. The pullback has now taken this pair all the way back to support around 0.9700 (resistance 1.0310). For the time being that level has contained the down side and we now await the RBNZ statement due out at 9am Thursday. Ahead of that release we have the trade balance and business confidence data set to hit the wires tomorrow. Topside NZ dollar resistance is now seen around 0.9800 (support 1.0205) and I expect that level to cap any potential NZD resurgence ahead of the RBNZ statement.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
NZD/AUD 0.9690 0.9600 0.9800 0.9695 - 0.9960
AUD/NZD 1.0302 1.0204 1.0417 1.0040 - 1.0314

Friday 24th Apr 2:00pm(NZT)
The chance of New Zealand dollars hitting parity to Australian dollars has diminished significantly this week. The pair did have another solid attempt reaching 0.9960 (1.0040) over recent days, but as has happened on previous attempts, something comes along to trigger a pullback. This week’s attempt was thwarted by softer than forecast NZ inflation coupled with a stronger than expected Australian inflation result. These triggered a pullback below 0.9900 (above 1.0100) before the RBNZ deputy governor ramped up the downside pressure. Not only did he say the bank was not considering any interest rate increases, but he spent a fair amount of time talking about the potential for a rate cut. This completely undermined support for the NZD and drove the cross back below 0.9800 (above 1.0200). The repeated failures above 0.9900 (below 1.0100) will now make it even harder for the pair to mount a fresh attack. Those who have been waiting for parity to sell NZ dollars will have to start reconsidering their level or risk missing the boat. It now seems likely that the ultimate trigger for any potential move to parity will rest in the hands of the RBA. They meet on the 5th of May and if they hold off cutting interest rates again that could well be the death knell for any chance of a move to 1.0000. Next week we have the RBNZ rate statement to digest along with a speech from RBA Governor Stevens and Australia producer prices data.
The current interbank midrate is:    NZDAUD 0.9730    AUDNZD 1.0277

The interbank range this week has been:    NZDAUD 0.9743 - 0.9960    AUDNZD 1.0040 - 1.0264
Tuesday 21st Apr 3:30pm(NZT)
Last Thursday’s much better than expected Australian employment data helped to drive this pair back to just below 0.9800 (above 1.0204). But as has been the case since early April there was good NZD support around that level and since then the New Zealand dollar has seen consistent appreciation over its Australian cousin. This has driven the pair back up over 0.9900 (below 1.0100) and after such a strong recovery a test toward parity may well now be on the cards. The RBA minutes released this afternoon offered little in the way of fresh insight into thinking at the central bank and as such the market reaction was muted. We have Australian inflation data set for release tomorrow and the market is looking for a result of 0.1% for the quarter.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
NZD/AUD 0.9940 0.9800 1.0000 0.9785 - 0.9943
AUD/NZD 1.0060 1.0000 1.0204 1.0057 - 1.0220

Friday 17th Apr 1:00pm(NZT)
After spending the better part of a week in a tight 0.9800 to 0.9850 (1.0204 to 1.0152) range the NZD attempted to move back above 0.9900 (below 1.0101) Australian dollars, but ultimately failed. Another fall in dairy prices certainly didn’t help the NZD, but the real impact on the pair came from yesterday’s Australian employment data. That much better than forecast result saw a big increase in demand for Australian dollars and this quickly drove the cross back down toward, and briefly below, 0.9800 (1.0204). I expect the pair to continue to run into good selling interest on any periods of strength toward, or potentially over, 0.9900 (1.0101). For the moment the pair remains above initial support around 0.9800 (below resistance at 1.0204), but any sustained break below that level would warn a much bigger pullback is unfolding. We have inflation data from both countries to digest next week along with the minutes from the last RBA meeting.
The current interbank midrate is:     NZDAUD 0.9830     AUDNZD 1.0173

The interbank range this week has been:     NZDAUD 0.9785 - 0.9922     AUDNZD 1.0079 - 1.0220
Tuesday 14th Apr 2:30pm(NZT)
This pair has traded in a very tight range over the past week between the broad parameters of 0.9800 and 0.9850 (1.0150 - 1.0205) Last Tuesday’s decision by the RBA to leave interest rates unchanged was the catalyst for a pullback to 0.9800 (1.0205) and with little in the way of market moving data released from either country since then, this tight range has developed. Key to direction over the coming week will be the result of Fonterra’s latest dairy auction tomorrow night and the release of Australian employment data on Thursday afternoon. Current levels continue to provide good value for those looking to buy Australian dollars, and although another test toward parity may well eventuate over the coming weeks, it is by no means definite. The cross could just as easily trade back to 0.9500 (1.0525) as it could to 1.0000.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
NZD/AUD 0.9810 0.9800 1.0000 0.9788 - 0.9934
AUD/NZD 1.0194 1.0000 1.0204 1.0066 - 1.0216

Friday 10th Apr 1:45pm(NZT)
Anyone with experience in the foreign exchange market will tell you that as soon as the media get excited about parity between the New Zealand dollar and the Australian dollar, that will be top. That advice certainly rang true over the past week, when after trading up to 0.9979 (down to 1.0030) in thin Easter holiday market conditions, the NZD suddenly saw a very sharp pullback. Two key Australian releases helped to drive the pair back down to 0.9800 (up to 1.0200) on Tuesday. Stronger than forecast retail sales were quickly followed by the Reserve Bank of Australia’s surprise decision to leave interest rates unchanged. Both releases caused an increase in demand for Australian dollar and this weighed on the NZD. Since then the pair has traded in a tight range between 0.9800 and 0.9850 (1.0150 - 1.0205). Last week’s sharp rejection doesn’t rule out another attempt at parity going forward, but it’s a big psychological level and there are plenty of sellers looking to take advantage of recent gains. Next week from Australia we get the latest readings on business confidence, consumer sentiment, inflation expectations and unemployment change. While from NZ we have business confidence, another Fonterra dairy auction and the Business NZ manufacturing index.
The current interbank midrate is:    NZDAUD 0.9835    AUDNZD 1.0168

The interbank range this week has been:    NZDAUD 0.9788 - 0.9979    AUDNZD 1.0021 - 1.0216
Thursday 2nd April 2:30pm(NZT)
The Australian dollar has been under pressure from much of the past week, thanks to soft iron ore prices and expectations for another interest rate cut from the RBA when they meet on Tuesday. This helped drive the NZDAUD cross up to fresh highs at 0.9843 (AUDNZD lows at 1.0160), before a pullback below 0.9800 (above 1.0204) ensued. Last night’s dairy auction from Fonterra saw another big decline in dairy prices and this drove a temporary bout of NZD weakness which saw the cross trade to 0.9747 (1.0260). However, the pair quickly recovered and currently trades back above 0.9800 (below 1.0204). It looks like the Australian dollar will remain very subdued ahead of Tuesday’s RBA decision, but with expectations for a rate cut largely priced into the market, I would be wary of expecting too much in the way of further AUD weakness. Look for spikes toward 0.9850 or over (1.0152 or under), to run into good selling interest.
The current interbank midrate is:    NZDAUD 0.9800    AUDNZD 1.0204

The interbank range this week has been:    NZDAUD 0.9671 - 0.9843    AUDNZD 1.0160 - 1.0340
Tuesday 31st Mar 2:30pm(NZT)
The Australian dollar has been the big under-performer over the past week, losing ground on most crosses. Iron ore prices falling to a six year low hasn’t helped and concerns around Chinese growth prospects have also weighed. This relative weakness in the AUD has seen the NZDAUD cross trade to fresh post float highs at 0.9843 (AUDNZD to lows at 1.0159). Key for direction from here will be tomorrow night’s dairy auction. Another soft auction could well spark a NZD pullback in this pair to levels below 0.9700 (above 1.0310). Australian building consents and trade balance data over the coming days should only provide limited market impact.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
NZD/AUD 0.9800 0.9650 0.9850 0.9671 - 0.9843
AUD/NZD 1.0204 1.0152 1.0363 1.0160 - 1.0340

Friday 27th Mar 1:30pm(NZT)
After spiking to a high of 0.9784 (1.0220) in the very early stages of this week, the New Zealand dollar has seen a slight pullback and some consolidation against the Australian dollar, with prices largely range bound above 0.9680 (below 1.0330). There has been little in the way of economic releases to dive the cross over the past week and we now await data from NZ next week in the form of business confidence and another Fonterra dairy auction. While from Australia we have private sector credit, building approvals, and the trade balance set for release. With increasing expectations of another rate cut from the RBA over the coming months, this pair is likely to remain elevated for some time yet. On any periods of NZD weakness/AUD strength, the key level around 0.9500 (1.0525) in the wholesale interbank market should offer a boundary for such a move.
The current interbank midrate is:    NZDAUD 0.9692    AUDNZD 1.0318

The interbank range this week has been:    NZDAUD 0.9671 - 0.9784    AUDNZD 1.0221 - 1.0340
Tuesday 24th Mar 12:30pm(NZT)
Volatility in the wider market has been a key factor in driving this pair higher over the past week. Both the New Zealand dollar and the Australian dollar have seen significant gains against the USD in the wake of last Thursday’s FOMC statement. During this period of heightened volatility the NZD outperformed its Australian cousin and nowhere was this more evident that yesterday. As the NZDUSD broke above the key 0.7600 level a wave of stop-loss buy orders were triggered which catapulted the NZD higher. Against the AUD this saw the NZD trade to post float highs of 0.9784 (lows 1.0220). Overnight the Australian dollar has played some catch-up to the NZD’s gains and the cross is now back just above 0.9700 (1.0310). Taking a look at the wider picture, and with the pair now broken out of the 0.9500 to 0.9700 (1.0310 - 1.0525) range that had contained trade for the past six weeks, further investigations NZD outperformance seem likely. A move to parity, although not far away points wise, still seems a long shot at best. In the current environment we can expect further choppy price action with periods of NZD strength toward, or even over 0.9800 (1.0200), running into decent NZD selling/AUD buying interest.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
NZD/AUD 0.9720 0.9700 0.9900 0.9575 - 0.9784
AUD/NZD 1.0288 1.0101 1.0309 1.0221 - 1.0444

Thursday 19th Mar 2:45pm(NZT)
After grinding to a high of 0.9683 Australian dollars (low of 1.0327) in the early stages of this week, the New Zealand dollar saw a sharp turnaround in the wake of a very disappointing dairy auction. This saw the pair quick lose a cent and trade down to around 0.9580 (up to 1.0438). The NZD has recovered from that low, with this morning’s FOMC statement adding some real volatility into the mix. Overall this week, and taking into account both economic releases and the price action, there has been nothing to suggest the pair will break out of the now increasingly familiar 0.9500 to 0.9700 (1.0526 to 1.0309) trading range. Next week’s economic calendar looks very light with just consumer sentiment and the trade balance from NZ, while from Australia we only have the RBA stability review of any note.
The current interbank midrate is:    NZDAUD 0.9650    AUDNZD 1.0363

The interbank range this week has been:    NZDAUD 0.9565 - 0.9683    AUDNZD 1.0327 - 1.0455
Tuesday 17th Mar 3:00pm(NZT)
After bouncing off support around 0.9500 (resistance 1.05025) late last week, in the wake of the RBNZ monetary policy statement, the New Zealand dollar has continued to grind higher against its Australian cousin. The Australian dollar is seeing some pressure in the lead up to the RBA minutes set for release this afternoon. The market is expecting this to confirm the central bank remains on course to cut interest rates again over the coming months. If this is indeed the case the NZD should continue to grind higher and the pair to test levels around 0.9700 (1.0310) again. With the interest rate differential between the two countries expected to widen further, I continue to see support around 0.9500 (resistanc3e 1.0525) containing any periods of AUD strength/NZD weakness in the near term. Other data to watch out for this week includes another dairy auction from Fonterra along with NZ GDP.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
NZD/AUD 0.9655 0.9500 0.9700 0.9494 - 0.9662
AUD/NZD 1.0357 1.0309 1.0526 1.0350 - 1.0533

Friday 13th Mar 12:30pm(NZT)
It has been an interesting week for this pair, and one that has largely reinforced the current range of 0.9500 to 0.9700 (1.0310 to 1.0525). The pair traded to the NZD low that range in the lead up to yesterday morning’s RBNZ monetary policy statement, but the NZ dollar quickly bounced when it became clear the central bank remains very neutral. The RBNZ failed to provide any fresh reason to sell the NZD and as such a wave of profit taking developed. This saw the cross to the Australian dollar recover all the way to 0.9655 (1.0357) overnight. With the RBNZ firmly on hold, and the RBA still likely to cut interest rates again in the coming months, support around 0.9500 (resistance 1.0525) should continue to contain any periods of NZD weakness. I suspect the pair will get back up to test resistance around 0.9700 (support 1.0310) over the coming week.
The current interbank midrate is:    NZDAUD 0.9600    AUDNZD 1.0417

The interbank range this week has been:    NZDAUD 0.9494 - 0.9655    AUDNZD 1.0357 - 1.0533
Tuesday 10th Mar 2:30pm(NZT)
The New Zealand dollar dramatically underperformed its Australian cousin last week, thanks in large part to the Reserve Bank of New Zealand. Their announcement that they are looking to create a new asset class for property investors undermined support for the NZD, which was trading at the time near post flight highs to the AUD. The downside pressure paused around 0.9600 (1.0417) for a time, but eventually re-emerged and late on Friday evening the pair traded as low as 0.9522 (high as 1.0502). Although support around 0.9500 (resistance around 1.0526) has so far contained the NZD downside, we have a major hurdle to overcome on Thursday morning in the form of the RBNZ monetary policy statement. It seems unlikely they will miss the opportunity to try and talk the currency down, and further details on potential macro-prudential tools to limit property investing could also weigh. The risks for the NZS are therefore skewed to the downside, and a serious test of support around 0.9500 (resistance around 1.0526). Thursday could also prove important for the Australian dollar side of the equation with their employment change data set for release. Ahead of that we have Australian consumer sentiment and inflation expectation numbers to digest.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
NZD/AUD 0.9555 0.9500 0.9700 0.9522 - 0.9724
AUD/NZD 1.0466 1.0309 1.0526 1.0284 - 1.0501

Friday 6th Mar 2:00pm(NZT)
The decision by the Reserve Bank of Australia not to cut interest rates on Tuesday boosted the Australian dollar which in turn drove this pair down toward 0.9620 (up to 1.0395). That dip was short lived however, and the cross proceeded to recover strongly, eventually trading up to new cycle highs at 0.9724 (lows at 1.0284). But once again it seems levels over 0.9700 (under 1.0309) are a step too far for the pair, and in the wake of yesterday’s RBNZ announcement we have seen a sharp pullback. The RBNZ is looking to create a new asset class for property investing which could then see macro prudential policies implemented to cool investment lending. This took the wind out the NZD’s sails and has seen the pair trade down just shy of 0.9600 (1.0417) so far. Expect the broad parameters of 0.9500 to 0.9700 (1.0526 to 1.0309) to contain the pair over the coming week. This current bout of NZD weakness could easily see the pair test the lower boundary of that range, but there is likely to be good support toward that 0.9500 level (resistance toward 1.0526). Next week from New Zealand we have the RBNZ rate meeting on Thursday to draw focus. This will be followed by the Business NZ manufacturing index on Friday. From Australia we get business confidence, consumer sentiment, inflation expectations and employment change data.
The current interbank midrate is:    NZDAUD 0.9620    AUDNZD 1.0395

The interbank range this week has been:    NZDAUD 0.9599 - 0.9724    AUDNZD 1.0284 - 1.0417
Tuesday 3rd Mar 2:30pm(NZT)
The New Zealand dollar has recovered sharply from its dip to 0.9544 (1.0478) Australian dollars mid last week. That move was driven by declining NZ inflation expectations, but since then we have seen better trade balance figures and another record high for NZ migration. The Australian dollar has also been weighed on by soft private capital expenditure data and the prospect of a potential rate cut from the Reserve Bank this afternoon. The market is split right down the middle in terms of cut or no cut expectations and as such there is likely to be significant volatility around the announcement. If the RBA do cut interest rates again the NZDAUD will trade to post float highs and potentially test levels over 0.9750 (under 1.0256). On the NZD downside there is support around 0.9530 (resistance around 1.0493) and this would be a target for the pair in the event of a ‘no change’ decision from the RBA.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
NZD/AUD 0.9675 0.9530 0.9700 0.9544 - 0.9696
AUD/NZD 1.0336 1.0309 1.0493 1.0314 - 1.0477

Friday 27th Feb 1:00pm(NZT)
It has been a week of two halves for this pair with early NZD weakness, and a dip to 0.9544 (rally to 1.0478), completely reversed over the past couple of days. The cross now trades close to where it was this time last Friday. The week’s NZD low (AUD high) traded in the wake of declining NZ inflation expectations on Tuesday, but the New Zealand dollar regained some composure after yesterday’s better than expected trade balance numbers and strong migration data. The Australian dollar has also seen a reversal of fortunes this week with a boost from positive construction data on Tuesday completely undone by softer than forecast private capital expenditure data yesterday. Resistance around 0.9700 (support around 1.0309) will likely cap the NZ dollar topside ahead of Tuesday’s RBA rate statement. That event could well dictate near term direction for the pair with expectations finely balanced on whether they cut rates or not. Once the RBA decision is out of the way we still have Australian GDP, retail sales, and trade balance to digest. From NZ next week we just have another Fonterra dairy auction to draw focus.
The current interbank midrate is:    NZDAUD 0.9658    AUDNZD 1.0354

The interbank range this week has been:    NZDAUD 0.9544 - 0.9669    AUDNZD 1.0343 - 1.0477
Tuesday 24th Feb 2:30pm(NZT)
The New Zealand dollar made a fresh high against its Australian cousin late last week at 0.9708 (low at 1.0301). But with upside momentum indicators fading, the pair was not able to sustain those lofty levels and a quick pullback ensued. This saw the pair trade to a low of 0.9587 (high of 1.0431) yesterday before recovering somewhat. We can expect more of the same price action over the coming week with the pair struggling to sustain moves toward, or over 0.9700 (1.0309). From New Zealand this week we get a speech from Governor Wheeler along with the trade balance, building consents, and business confidence data. The key driver for the pair however may well be Australian data in the form of private capital expenditure figures set for release on Thursday.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
NZD/AUD 0.9650 0.9500 0.9700 0.9587 - 0.9708
AUD/NZD 1.0363 1.0309 1.0526 1.0301 - 1.0430

Thursday 19th Feb 2:30pm(NZT)
The New Zealand dollar has maintained a very firm footing against the Australian dollar this week helped by solid retail sales and improving dairy prices. A fresh cycle high of 0.9677 (low of 1.0334) traded on Monday and the pair has remained above 0.9620 (below 1.0395) ever since. Further gains however, have not been forthcoming and momentum has started to fade a touch. This doesn’t rule out the possibility of a test toward, or even over 0.9700 (under 1.0309), but gains past there will be much harder fought and the cross will be vulnerable to a sharp turnaround from those sorts of levels. Initial support at 0.9620 (resistance 1.0395) is key, with any move below there opening the way for a bigger correction toward 0.9500 (1.0526). Next week from New Zealand we have inflation expectations, the trade balance, building consents, and business confidence. While from Australia we have private capital expenditure data to draw focus.
The current interbank midrate is:    NZDAUD 0.9666    AUDNZD 1.0346

The interbank range this week has been:    NZDAUD 0.9537 - 0.9677    AUDNZD 1.0334 - 1.0485
Tuesday 17th Feb 3:30pm(NZT)
The New Zealand dollar hit a fresh high against the Australian dollar last night at 0.9677 (low of 1.0334). These gains come as recent data highlights the divergent economic performance of the two countries. Late last week Australia saw very weak employment numbers which have weighed on the AUD. On the other hand New Zealand released stronger than forecast retail sales numbers yesterday, which boosted demand for NZ dollars. A further cut in interest rates from the Reserve Bank of Australia is expected over the coming months, while the RBNZ are likely to remain on hold into 2016. That expectation for a widening interest rate differential has helped to drive the pair to it recent highs. However, caution is warranted about the expectation for further gains toward parity. While the interest rate differential will likely widen further it is unlikely to reach the historical extremes of 200 basis points. This should mean the New Zealand dollar will find gains over 0.9700 (under 1.0309) much harder to sustain. Still to come this week from NZ we have the latest dairy auction from Fonterra along with the producer prices index. The economic calendar from Australia is looking pretty light for the rest of the week with just the leading index of any note.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
NZD/AUD 0.9645 0.9500 0.9700 0.9485 - 0.9677
AUD/NZD 1.0368 1.0309 1.0526 1.0334 - 1.0543

Friday 13th Feb 2:30pm(NZT)
The New Zealand dollar finally managed a sustained move up through 0.9500 (1.0525) against the AUD this week. Once that happened we saw a relentless grind higher to last night’s 0.9625 high(1.0390 low). There are some indications that the NZ dollar upside momentum is now waning, although this doesn’t rule out the possibility of a further push to the 0.9663 high (10350 low) seen at the start of the year. Soft Australian employment data yesterday was a key driver for the pair and next week we have the Reserve Bank of Australia minutes to digest. From NZ we have another dairy auction from Fonterra along with the latest retail sales data. Current levels offer very good value buying of Australian dollars  with NZD, on a historical basis. I suspect any further NZD strength from here will capped in the near term around 0.9660 (1.0350). Immediate NZD downside support (upside AUD resistance) is seen at 0.9575 (1.0445) and then again at 0.9500 (1.0525).
The current interbank midrate is:    NZDAUD 0.9590    AUDNZD 1.0428

The interbank range this week has been:    NZDAUD 0.9403 - 0.9625    AUDNZD 1.0389 - 1.0635
Monday 9th Feb 4:00pm(NZT)
This pair performed well last week driven higher by the RBA’s decision to cut rates and strong employment data from New Zealand. Resistance around 0.9500 (support around 1.0526) has managed to cap the move for the time being, but I expect that level to come under increasing pressure. Minor support around 0.9400 (resistance around 1.0638) should contain the downside in the very near term with direction this week likely to be driven by Australian releases. Today we will hear from RBA Governor Stevens with an on the record speech set for release, then later in the week we get business confidence, consumer sentiment, inflation expectations and employment change. From NZ we only have the Business NZ Manufacturing Index set for release on Thursday.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
NZD/AUD 0.9465 0.9300 0.9500 0.9309 - 0.9508
AUD/NZD 1.0565 1.0526 1.0753 1.0518 - 1.0742

Thursday 5th Feb 2:30pm(NZT)
Toward the end of last week the New Zealand dollar traded to a low of 0.9263 (high 1.0796) against the Australian dollar. Since then however, we have seen significant NZD gains and the risk remains to the topside. The Reserve Bank of Australia’s decision to cut rates has been a major factor in drive the NZD higher over the AUD, but a positive dairy auction from Fonterra and good employment data from New Zealand have also supported the NZ dollar. The cross has stalled around the 0.9500 level (1.0525) for now, but it seems likely we can expect further NZD investigations higher. A move back toward the recent high around 0.9650 (1.0360) cannot be ruled out over the coming weeks. RBA Governor Stevens is due to speak early next week and we also get readings on business confidence, consumer sentiment, inflation expectation and employment change. From New Zealand the only data of note is the Business NZ Manufacturing Index out on Thursday.
The current interbank midrate is:    NZDAUD 0.9493    AUDNZD 1.0534

The interbank range this week has been:    NZDAUD 0.9263 - 0.9508    AUDNZD 1.0518 - 1.0796
Tuesday 3rd Feb 4:00pm(NZT)
This pair has continued to show little overall direction the past week with trade largely contained between 0.9300 and 0.9400 (1.0753 and 1.0638). The low of 0.9262 (high of 1.0797) was made in the immediate aftermath of the RBNZ’s move to a neutral stance on Thursday, but it was short lived and the cross quickly recovered back toward 0.9350 (1.0695). Near term direction will now be dictated by the result of today’s Reserve Bank of Australia rate meeting. It is a close call whether the central bank cuts interest rates or not and as such we could see a significant reaction in the AUD either way. Support on the downside comes in around 0.9200 (resistance around 1.0870), while key topside resistance to keep an eye on is around 0.9440 (support 1.0593).
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
NZD/AUD 0.9360 0.9200 0.9500 0.9262 - 0.9412
AUD/NZD 1.0684 1.0526 1.0870 1.0625 - 1.0797

Friday 30th Jan 2:00pm(NZT)
It has been a volatile week in currency markets in general and this has certainly spilled over into the NZD vs AUD cross which has seen some choppy price action. Both the New Zealand dollar and the Australian dollar have seen periods of pressure and as such the cross rate has jumped around within a 200 point range. The low of 0.9262 (high of 1.0797) came yesterday in the wake of the RBNZ’s move to a neutral footing. Overnight however, the AUD has seen heavy selling pressure and this has helped the cross recover back up over 0.9350 (under 1.0695). The AUD is struggling as the market weighs the risk of cut from the Reserve Bank of Australia next week. That event is the main upcoming focus for the pair and it seems likely this heightened volatility is here to stay. A cut from the RBA next week could easily see this pair back up to 0.9500 or 0.9600 (1.0526 or 1.0417). If they don’t cut, or signal an imminent cut, then a test of 0.9200 support (1.0870 resistance) is probably on the cards. The focus so far this year has all been on central banks and it seems next week will be no different.
The current interbank midrate is:    NZDAUD 0.9355    AUDNZD 1.0689

The interbank range this week has been:    NZDAUD 0.9262 - 0.9459    AUDNZD 1.0572 - 1.0797
Tuesday 27th Jan 4:30pm(NZT)
We have seen some good volatility in this pair with prices ranging between the broad parameters of 0.9300 and 0.9500 (1.0753 and 1.0526) over the past week. Both currencies have seen periods of pressure at times with the New Zealand dollar continuing to suffer from last week’s soft inflation data, and the Australian dollar weighed on by further weakness in iron ore prices. There is a slight downside bias to the pair as it continues to correct from the 0.9600 (1.0417) levels seen earlier in the year and potential still exists for a move toward 0.9200 (1.0870). Key to near term direction will be the RBNZ rate statement on Thursday morning. If the RBNZ back away from the hawkish tone of December’s statement and suggest a much more neutral bias, then further NZD pressure is likely. That is far from a certain outcome however, and central banks in general have surprised markets a number of times so far this year. If the RBNZ choose to focus on renewed house price pressure and maintain their ‘hawkish’ stance, the NZD could react very positively. Ahead of the RBNZ statement we have Australian inflation data set for release tomorrow.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
NZD/AUD 0.9372 0.9300 0.9500 0.9295 - 0.9490
AUD/NZD 1.0670 1.0526 1.0753 1.0537 - 1.0759

Friday 23th Jan 2:00pm(NZT)
The New Zealand dollar has given up significant ground to the Australian dollar this week. Softer than forecast NZ inflation data and a growing realization that the RBNZ are likely to be on hold well into next year have been key drivers in the cross correcting from the extremely high levels seen in the first few weeks of the year. The break below initial support around 0.9400 (resistance around 1.0638) is a signal that a broader pullback could be unfolding. This move should now target support around 0.9200 (resistance at 1.0870). Next week from Australia we have business confidence, inflation, and producer prices data to digest. While from New Zealand we have the RBNZ official cash rate review on Thursday. Volatility in the wider market has certainly picked up this year and this pairing is no exception. With much bigger ranges trading than in the past couple of years, working limit orders at targeted levels is good option to maximise value from any transfers.
The current interbank midrate is:    NZDAUD 0.9365    AUDNZD 1.0678

The interbank range this week has been:    NZDAUD 0.9295 - 0.9539    AUDNZD 1.0483 - 1.0759
Tuesday 20th Jan 3:30pm(NZT)
The New Zealand dollar saw a sharp appreciation against the Australian dollar throughout November and December with the NZD peaking at 0.9659 (1.0353) in early January. This move was driven by increasing expectations of divergent monetary policy. The RBNZ still suggesting rate hikes are likely in the future, while in Australia the market is pricing in a significant chance of a rate cut this year. Although some commentators are expecting a rate cut from the RBA when they meet in a couple of weeks, the more likely scenario is that any potential cut will come later in the year. Data from both countries between now and then will dictate whether the NZD makes further gains, or whether we see a pull back toward key support around 0.9200 (resistance 1.0870). Looking much shorter term, there is immediate support around the 0.9400 (resistance 1.0640) level and while the market holds ahead of there further NZ dollar investigations higher cannot be ruled out. On a historical bases the current level still provides good value buying of Australian dollars with NZD and those looking to lock  a rate in should take advantage of any periods of strength over 0.9500 (weakness below 1.0525). NZ inflation data tomorrow will be of immediate interest, while from Australia we have consumer sentiment data and inflation expectations set for release over the coming days.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
NZD/AUD 0.9475 0.9400 0.9600 0.9398 - 0.9558
AUD/NZD 1.0554 1.0417 1.0638 1.0463 - 1.0640

Friday 19th Dec 1:00pm(NZT)
The New Zealand dollar has remained well supported against the Australian dollar this week, helped by a couple of better than forecast results. An increase in dairy prices at Fonterra’s latest auction and very strong NZ GDP data have underpinned demand for New Zealand dollars. However, the 0.9500 (1.0526) level has provided strong resistance so far largely containing the pair on numerous attempts over the past few days. With the extra thin market liquidity of the holiday season, it would not be surprising to see this level eventually give way and move up through the 2014 high of 0.9531 (low of 1.0492) may well eventuate over the coming week. Initial support on the NZD downside comes in around 0.9400 (resistance around 1.0638). If we happen to see a more significant NZ dollar pullback over the coming weeks I would expect to find very strong support at the 0.9150 (resistance at 1.0929) level and those looking to sell AUD and buy NZD should take advantage of any weakness toward that level.
The current interbank midrate is:    NZDAUD 0.9503    AUDNZD 1.0523

The interbank range this week has been:    NZDAUD 0.9390 - 0.9506    AUDNZD 1.0520 - 1.0649
Tuesday 16th Dec 4:00pm(NZT)
The past week’s price action has been dominated by the sharp appreciation in the New Zealand dollar in the wake of the RBNZ monetary policy statement. This drove the cross to the Australian dollar up over 0.9450 (below 1.0580) and although we have seen some moderation in the pair since then, it still remains above 0.9400 (below 1.0640). On a purely historical basis these are good levels to sell the pair, but further investigations higher can’t be ruled out with a hawkish RBNZ and growing expectation for rate cuts from the RBA. There is now little in the way of economic data set for release from Australia until next year. From NZ however, we still have another dairy auction tomorrow and then the 3rd quarter GDP number due for release on Thursday.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
NZD/AUD 0.9415 0.9300 0.9500 0.9220 - 0.9472
AUD/NZD 1.0621 1.0526 1.0753 1.0557 - 1.0846

Thursday 11th Dec 4:00pm(NZT)
Until early this morning it looked like the 0.9300 (1.0750) level was going to cap this period of NZD strength in the NZD vs AUD cross. The Reserve Bank of New Zealand had other ideas however, and after delivering a surprisingly hawkish statement at 9am the New Zealand dollar smashed up through 0.9300 (down through 1.0750) and quickly traded to 0.9400 (1.0640). The central bank’s call that further increases in the OCR will likely be needed lit a fire under the NZD and this outlook now contrasts dramatically with increasing calls for rate cuts in Australia. When dealing in markets you have to be prepared to quickly change your view in reaction to new information and as such I suspect this pair could now trade back up, and potentially over, the 2014 high of 0.9531 (1.1050 low) in the coming weeks. There is some resistance around 0.9400 (support around 1.0638) which has so far capped the move, but once that is overcome, a test of 0.9531 (1.0492) should unfold. Next week from NZ we have another dairy auction and GDP data to digest. While from Australia we have the RBA minutes along with the Mid-Year Economic and Fiscal Outlook from the Treasury.
The current interbank midrate is:    NZDAUD 0.9375    AUDNZD 1.0667

The interbank range this week has been:    NZDAUD 0.9203 - 0.9403    AUDNZD 1.0634 - 1.0866
Tuesday 9th Dec 3:30pm(NZT)
We have recently seen further confirmation of what looks to be a medium term top put in place for this pair just below 0.9300 (above 1.0753). Major trend support, that was around 0.9230 (1.0834) yesterday, finally gave way as the NZD underperformed the Australian dollar. The pair fell as low at 0.9201 (1.0868) before staging a less than convincing recovery and the focus remains on the downside over the near term. There are however, a number of key release this week that could significantly influence price action. From Australia we have consumer confidence and employment data set for release. While from NZ we are expecting Fonterra to revise their forecast payout over the coming days, and we also have the RBNZ monetary policy statement on Thursday morning. That event in particular could have a dramatic impact on the currency should the central bank significantly downgrade forecasts for GDP and inflation.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
NZD/AUD 0.9240 0.9100 0.9300 0.9199 - 0.9294
AUD/NZD 1.0823 1.0753 1.0989 1.0760 - 1.0871

Thursday 4th Dec 3:30pm(NZT)
The recent run higher in this pair looks to have run its course and a medium term top could be forming just below 0.9300 (above 1.0750). It will take a break back below 0.9200 (above 1.0870) to confirm it, which should then see further NZD declines toward 0.9100 (1.1000) initially. The New Zealand dollar has made four separate attempts toward, or just over, the 0.9280 (below 1.0775) level over the past week and been firmly rejected on each occasion. Both the NZD and Australian dollars have seen periods of pressure this week thanks to declining dairy prices and then poor Australian GDP, and it just seems the cross in not at all comfortable anywhere near the 0.9300 (1.0750) level. Those looking to purchase AUD’s should take advantage of the current level, or any periods of strength toward 0.9250, to lock a rate in. Next week from New Zealand we have the RBNZ monetary policy statement to digest on Thursday. While from Australia we get business confidence, consumer sentiment, inflation expectations and employment change data.
The current interbank midrate is:    NZDAUD 0.9220    AUDNZD 1.0846

The interbank range this week has been:    NZDAUD 0.9187 - 0.9290    AUDNZD 1.0764 - 1.0885
Tuesday 2nd Dec 1:30pm(NZT)
This pair broke above key resistance around 0.9150 (support at 1.0929) last week as the Australian dollar suffered at the hands of declining commodity prices. Once clear of that resistance gains have continued to just shy of 0.9300 (1.0753) last night. Although the near term trend has firmly been to the NZD topside the past week, there is potential that resistance around 0.9300 (support around 1.0753) could cap this move. A pull back toward 0.9200 (rally to 1.0870) and then possibly 0.9150 (1.0929) would then likely eventuate. Key to this potential price action however, will be the rash of key data out over the coming days. From Australia we have building approvals and the RBA rate statement this afternoon to digest. Then later in the week retail sales and GDP are set for release. From NZ we have tonight’s Fonterra dairy auction to draw focus.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
NZD/AUD 0.9272 0.9150 0.9300 0.9101 - 0.9290
AUD/NZD 1.0785 1.0753 1.0929 1.0764 - 1.0987

Friday 28th Nov 1:00pm(NZT)
The past week has seen the New Zealand dollar break above strong resistance at 0.9150 (support at 1.0929) to the Australian dollar. That level had contained the topside since late July and once it broke the cross shot straight up to 0.9240 (1.0823) as short (sold) positions stopped out. The move was largely driven by AUD weakness as iron ore prices hit five year lows and comments from RBA Deputy Governor Lowe suggested rate cuts weren’t off the table. The break above 0.9150 (below 1.0929) is significant and does change the near term outlook for the pair. The move could now easily extent up to the next resistance level just above 0.9300 (1.0753). Reaction at that level will be key, although I would expect it to contain price action for now and a corrective pullback to develop. Next week from NZ we have the overseas trade index and Fonterra’s latest dairy auction to digest. While from Australia we get GDP, the RBA rate meeting, building approvals, retails sales and the trade balance.
The current interbank midrate is:    NZDAUD 0.9218    AUDNZD 1.0848

The interbank range this week has been:    NZDAUD 0.9073 - 0.9239    AUDNZD 1.0823 - 1.1021
Tuesday 25th Nov 3:30pm(NZT)
The past week has seen this pair trading in a relatively tight band between 0.9080 and 0.9140 (1.0941 and 1.1013). There is big resistance around 0.9150 (support at 1.0929) that has capped the pair since late July and the market has so far failed to have a serious attempted to overcome it. I suspect this level will continue to put a roof on the NZD appreciation and we should eventually see a pullback that will take us below 0.9000 (above 1.1111). Last night’s announcement from BHP Billiton that they plan to dramatically cut spending and investment has weighed on the AUD and the pair is now trading around 0.9130 (1.0953). Current levels therefore provide a good opportunity for those looking to purchase Australian dollars with New Zealand dollars. Still to come this week from NZ we have the trade balance, building consents and business confidence numbers. While from Australia we get data on construction work done data tomorrow and on Thursday we have private capital expenditure figures to digest.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
NZD/AUD 0.9130 0.8850 0.9150 0.9073 - 0.9144
AUD/NZD 1.0953 1.0929 1.1300 1.0936 - 1.1021

Friday 21st Nov 1:30pm(NZT)
The New Zealand dollar has remained well supported against the Australian dollar this week which is somewhat surprising considering the further fall in dairy prices seen at Fonterra’s auction on Wednesday. The Australian dollar itself has seen some pressure on the back of a speech from Governor Stevens which suggested interest rates could well be on hold for years at this stage, and this has likely played a part in keeping the pair elevated. Somewhat tellingly however, the cross has failed to have a serious attempt to overcome resistance around 0.9150 (support 1.0930), With no fundamental reason to break above there, I expect that level will continue to cap the NZ dollar topside. The risks from here are skewed to the NZD downside (AUD rebound) and a pull back toward the middle of the 0.8850 to 0.9150 (1.0930 to 1.1300) range that has dominated trading since late July. Next week from NZ we have inflation expectations, the trade balance, building consents and business confidence data to digest. While from Australia we get private capital expenditure data and the Treasuries mid-year fiscal outlook to draw focus.
The current interbank midrate is:    NZDAUD 0.9115    AUDNZD 1.0971

The interbank range this week has been:    NZDAUD 0.9021 - 0.9144    AUDNZD 1.0936 - 1.1085
Tuesday 18th Nov 3:00pm(NZT)
The New Zealand dollar was struggling to overcome the 0.9050 resistance (1.1050 support) area against the Australian dollar in the latter stages of last week. That all changed yesterday morning however, after much better than expected NZ retail sales data hit the wires. That data gave the NZD a boost up through 0.9050 (down through 1.1050) and it went straight up to 0.9100 (1.0990). Minor resistance around 0.9100 (support 1.0990) has so far capped the NZD appreciation, but an extension toward 0.9150 (1.0930) can’t be ruled out. Sooner or later however, this move should run out of steam and a pullback toward 0.9000 (1.1110) is likely. I suspect 0.9150 (1.0930) will cap this move and selling NZD ahead of that level is therefore recommended for those looking to purchase Australian dollars. From New Zealand this week we have the Fonterra dairy auction and producer prices data to digest. While from the Australia we just have a speech from Governor Steven’s this evening to draw focus.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
NZD/AUD 0.9103 0.9000 0.9150 0.8958 - 0.9107
AUD/NZD 1.0985 1.0929 1.1111 1.0981 - 1.1163

Friday 14th Nov 1:30pm(NZT)
There has been no fundamental reason for the New Zealand dollar to outperform the Australian dollar this week, but that is exactly what it has done. This has resulted in the pair gaining a cent from 0.8950 to 0.9050 (1.1173 to 1.1050) where is currently trades. There is resistance around 0.9050 (support around 1.1050) and so far this has capped the NZD gains, but a move toward 0.9100 or even 0.9150 (1.0989 or 1.0929) can’t be ruled out, albeit a small probability. Selling into that potential strength is recommended as momentum should start to wane on any further gains. Next week from NZ we have retail sales, producer prices, and the latest Fonterra dairy auction to digest. While the focus in Australia will turn to the RBA's minutes set for release on Tuesday, just ahead of the Treasuries mid-year economic and fiscal outlook.
The current interbank midrate is:    NZDAUD 0.9040    AUDNZD 1.1062

The interbank range this week has been:    NZDAUD 0.8946 - 0.9054    AUDNZD 1.1045 - 1.1179
Tuesday 11th Nov 2:00pm(NZT)
Some relative underperformance from the Australian dollar in the first half of last week saw this pair trade up toward 0.9015 (down toward 1.1093). Since then the market has largely traded sideways between that level and 0.8950 on the downside (1.1173 on the topside). We could see some further NZ dollar gains toward 0.9050 (1.1050), but I suspect that level will cap the NZD topside for now. A further period of ranging between 0.9050 and 0.8850 (1.1050 and 1.1300) seems likely over the coming week. The RBNZ’s Financial Stability Report will draw focus tomorrow as will comments from Governor Wheeler when he testifies in front of a parliamentary committee. While from Australia we have business confidence, consumer sentiment, the wage price index and inflation expectations set for release.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
NZD/AUD 0.8992 0.8850 0.9050 0.8869- 0.9014
AUD/NZD 1.1121 1.1050 1.1300 1.1094 - 1.1279

Friday 7th Nov 1:30pm(NZT)
The past week has seen this pair bounce once again from support around 0.8850 (resistance around 1.1300), thanks in large part to Australian dollar underperformance. The Australian dollar hasn’t been helped by weaker than expected Chinese data and the surprise downward revisions to prior employment numbers from the Australian Bureau of Statistics. Even a  better result from October employment and stronger than forecast retails sales failed to turn the tide for the AUD and the cross to the NZD has traded up over 0.9000 (under 1.1111), albeit briefly, so far. New Zealand itself produced some very healthy employment data this week and that certainly helped the NZD make significant gains. Resistance on the topside comes in at 0.9050 (support at 1.1050) and then again at 0.9150 (1.0929) and as previously, one of those two levels will likely cap this period of NZD strength. Tonight’s key US employment data could certainly add volatility and next week the focus in NZ turns to the RBNZ’s financial stability report and the Business NZ manufacturing index. From Australia we get business confidence and consumer sentiment data to digest along with the wage price index, and inflation expectations.
The current interbank midrate is:    NZDAUD 0.8984    AUDNZD 1.1131

The interbank range this week has been:    NZDAUD 0.8847- 0.9012    AUDNZD 1.1096 - 1.1303
Tuesday 4th Nov 2:30pm(NZT)
Both the New Zealand dollar and the Australian dollar have seen periods of pressure this week, but overall the NZD has underperformed. As such this pair has traded down toward key support around 0.8850 (resistance around 1.1300) on two occasions. So far that level has contained the downside and buying ahead of there is still recommended for those looking to purchase NZD’s with Australian dollars. The NZD suffered after last week’s move to a more neutral stance from the RBNZ and this initially drove the pair toward 0.8850 (1.1300). Since then both countries have seen much weaker than expected building consents data which has created a little volatility, but done little for overall direction. There is minor topside resistance around 0.8920 (support around 1.1211) and while the market holds below there we can expect further tests of 0.8850 (1.1300). A move above 0.8920 (below 1.1211) will likely see a broader correct toward 0.9050 (1.1050) develop. We have employment data from both countries on Thursday which could prove interesting. A head of that from Australia today we have the RBA rate statement to absorb, albeit this should be of limited impact.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
NZD/AUD 0.8909 0.8850 0.9050 0.8847- 0.8969
AUD/NZD 1.1224 1.1050 1.1300 1.1150 - 1.1303

Thursday 30th Oct 3:30PM (NZT)
The New Zealand dollar spent most of this week trading sideways around 0.8950 (1.1175) to the Australian dollar. Early this morning however, in the wake of the Fed rate statement the NZD dramatically underperformed the AUD and the cross began to fall. The NZD downside price action continued after the RBNZ released their rate statement that has largely confirmed the markets view that the NZ central bank will now be on hold until late next year. The cross briefly traded toward key support around 0.8850 (1.1300) before an NZD bounce ensued. Further tests of the 0.8850 (1.1300) level seem likely in the near term, although the market should find it tough to break below there. Next week from NZ we have another global dairy auction from Fonterra, along with the latest employment numbers. While from Australia we have building approvals, retail sales, the trade balance and employment change all set for release along with the latest Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) rate statement.
The current interbank midrate is:    NZDAUD 0.8890    AUDNZD 1.1249

The interbank range this week has been:    NZDAUD 0.8854- 0.8980    AUDNZD 1.1136 - 1.1294
Tuesday 28th Oct 2:30pm(NZT)
Softer than expected New Zealand inflation data was the key to seeing this pair break back below 0.9050 (above 1.1050) on Thursday last week. The cross eventually fell toward 0.8900 (1.1235) which managed to contain the NZ dollar weakness heading into the weekend. We have seen a small NZD bounce from there over the past 24 hours, but the risks remain skewed to the downside for now. The 0.9050 (1.1050) level will now provide resistance and I expect that level to cap any periods of near term NZ dollar strength. On the downside, there is support around the recent cycle lows of 0.8850 (up at 1.1300) and buying ahead of that level is recommended for those looking to purchase NZD’s with AUD. The main focus in terms of releases this week comes from the RBNZ monetary policy statement on Thursday morning. Also from NZ we have business confidence and building consents this week, while from Australia we get import prices and producer prices to digest.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
NZD/AUD 0.8957 0.8850 0.9050 0.8907- 0.9095
AUD/NZD 1.1164 1.1050 1.1300 1.0995 - 1.1227

Thursday 23th Oct 3:30PM (NZT)
After spending much of the past week in a tight trading range between 0.9050 and 0.9100 (1.0990 - 1.1050), this pair has finally broken out. The driver for that move has been weakness in the New Zealand dollar in the lead up to, and then as a result of, softer than forecast inflation data. The market is now expecting the RBNZ to remain on hold until late next year and the NZD is reacting to this change in expectation. On the other side of the Tasman Australia also released inflation data yesterday and it came in a touch stronger than forecast. The combination of these two releases has undermined recent support for the NZ dollar and I would not be surprised to see a move toward, and possibly below, 0.8900 (above 1.1235) over the coming days. Next week from NZ we have business confidence, building permits and the RBNZ rate statement to digest. While from Australian we get the Treasury’s mid-year economic and fiscal outlook, along with import prices and producer prices.
The current interbank midrate is:    NZDAUD 0.8955    AUDNZD 1.1167

The interbank range this week has been:    NZDAUD 0.8948- 0.9095    AUDNZD 1.0995 - 1.1176
Monday 20th Oct 3:30PM (NZT)
Although there was no fundamental reason for it, the New Zealand dollar was a standout performer during the heightened market volatility mid last week. As a result the cross to the Australian dollar lept higher overcoming resistance at 0.9050 (support at 1.1050) and briefly trading over 0.9100 (under 1.0989). Since then trading has largely been confined to a tight range around 0.9050 (below 1.1050). While the market holds above that level there is potential for another test higher, but the weekend’s news of new liquidity injections by the Bank of China should support the AUD more than the NZD. This might see the market try to break back below 0.9050 (above 1.1050). As yet it hasn’t managed to do that. Inflation data from both countries is due for release this week and these will provide the main focus. The RBA minutes and NZ trade balance will also draw attention.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
NZD/AUD 0.9055 0.8950 0.9150 0.8969- 0.9103
AUD/NZD 1.1044 1.0929 1.1173 1.1150 - 1.0986

Friday 17th Oct 2:30PM (NZT)
Data the past week from New Zealand and Australia has played little part driving this pair. Volatility in the wider markets has been main influence with Wednesday night’s wild swings in US stocks and long term interest rates quickly flowing through into foreign exchange. Somewhat surprisingly, the New Zealand dollar was the best performer in all the carnage on Wednesday and as a result the cross to the Australian dollar jumped up to 0.9100 (1.0990). A tight range then developed between 0.9060 and 0.9100 (1.0990 and 1.1040), until a couple of hours ago when the RBNZ mistakenly again released a statement saying the NZD level was “unjustified and unsustainable”, which was actually issued three weeks ago and subsequently retracted. With the market holding above 0.9050 (below 1.1050) the risk remains of a test toward 0.9150 (1.0929). That level should cap any further gains and selling ahead of there is recommended. Next week in New Zealand the focus turns to inflation data and the trade balance. While from Australia we get the minutes from the last RBA meeting, inflation data, and the Treasury’s mid-year economic and fiscal outlook.
The current interbank midrate is:    NZDAUD 0.9057    AUDNZD 1.1041

The interbank range this week has been:    NZDAUD 0.8954- 0.9103    AUDNZD 1.1168 - 1.0986
Tuesday 14th Oct 2:30PM (NZT)
The past week has seen the New Zealand dollar largely outperform the Australian dollar. In thin market conditions early yesterday the AUD came under selling pressure and this helped to drive the pair up to 0.9034 (down to 1.1069). However, there is resistance around 0.9050 (support around 1.1050) that I expect to provide a tough barrier to further NZD gains, and the pair retreated from its highs without a solid test of that level. Data over the past week has only had a minimal impact on the pair, although that could change with Australian business confidence numbers due out this afternoon. These will be followed by consumer sentiment data tomorrow with inflation expectation and a speech by the RBA assistant governor later in the week. In New Zealand the focus now turns to Wednesday nights dairy action from Fonterra. For the time being a continuation of the broad 0.8850 - 0.9050 (1.1300 - 1.1050) range looks likely to dominate.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
NZD/AUD 0.8985 0.8850 0.9050 0.8869- 0.9034
AUD/NZD 1.1130 1.1050 1.1300 1.1070 - 1.1275

Friday 10th Oct 2:30PM (NZT)
We have seen little in the way of overall direction for this pair over the past two weeks. Trading has been confined to a range of 0.8860 to 0.8990 (1.1287 to 1.1123) as the pair consolidates recent losses just above support seen around 0.8850 (resistance around 1.1300). Australian employment data yesterday provided some volatility, but in the end the market took the release in its stride as changes to seasonal patterns have rendered individual data points unreliable. It will take another couple of month’s data to get a more accurate picture of employment trends. The NZD topside is protected by resistance around 0.9050 (support around 1.1050) and I expect that to contain any periods of strength in the near term. Selling ahead of that level is recommended for those looking to purchase Australian dollars. Next week is another quiet one for NZ data with just the business NZ manufacturing index and another Global Dairy Trade auction from Fonterra to digest. While from Australia we have business confidence, consumer sentiment and inflation expectations to draw focus.
The current interbank midrate is:    NZDAUD 0.8970    AUDNZD 1.1148

The interbank range this week has been:    NZDAUD 0.8869- 0.8990    AUDNZD 1.1124 - 1.1275
Tuesday 7th Oct 2:30PM (NZT)
The past week has seen choppy sideways trade for this pair between the parameters of 0.8880 and 0.8990 (1.1261 and 1.1123). Both currencies have seen periods of pressure and increased demand as volatility in the wider markets spills over into this pair. Key support around 0.8850 (resistance around 1.1300) has not been tested and this would suggest a further period of consolidation is likely. A move as high as 0.9050 (low as 1.1050) cannot be ruled out, although selling into that potential NZD strength is recommended for those looking to purchase AUD with New Zealand dollars. With little out from NZ over the rest of the week the focus turns to Australian releases. We have the RBA rate statement this afternoon to digest, then on Thursday Australian monthly employment data hits the wires.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
NZD/AUD 0.8925 0.8850 0.9050 0.8881- 0.8990
AUD/NZD 1.1204 1.1050 1.1299 1.1124 - 1.1260

Friday 3rd Oct 3:30PM (NZT)
If you were trading off economic fundamentals yesterday you would have been disappointed. Another very poor dairy auction from Fonterra combined with much better than expected Australian building consents data should have seen the pair under pressure. But sometimes market positioning drives prices ahead of economic fundamentals and that is exactly what happened yesterday. The market is very short (sold) New Zealand dollars and when both currencies started squeezing higher against the USD yesterday, the NZD dramatically outperformed the AUD. Stop loss buying of NZD’s helped lift the pair from below 0.8900 to just above 0.8980 (1.1236 to 1.1136). We are now likely to see a further period of consolidation in the pair within the trading range of 0.8850 and 0.9050 (1.1299 and 1.1050) over the coming week. Next week from Australia we have the RBA rate statement and employment change to draw focus. While from New Zealand we just have the quarterly NZIER business confidence reading to digest.
The current interbank midrate is:    NZDAUD 0.8980    AUDNZD 1.1136

The interbank range this week has been:    NZDAUD 0.8867- 0.9036    AUDNZD 1.1067 - 1.1277
Tuesday 30th Sept 12:00PM (NZT)
At this time last week the New Zealand dollar was trading right on resistance around 0.9150 (support around 1.0930) to the Australian dollar. Since then we have seen a dramatic reversal with the currency plunging nearly three cents to a low yesterday of 0.8867 (high of 1.1278). The move has been driven in large part by two releases from the RBNZ over the past week. Their report on Thursday that outline the ‘unjustifiable’ and ‘unsustainable’ level of the NZD caused a wave of selling, and then yesterday the revelation that the central bank had actually intervened by selling NZD’s in August saw the currency spiral lower again. The sharp rejection from 0.9150 resistance (1.0930 support) leaves the pair looking vulnerable. While there is some support around the 0.8850 level (resistance around 1.1300), it is likely to come under heavy pressure at some stage soon. A sustained move below 0.8850 (above 1.1300) will then target 0.8750 ahead of 0.8600 (1.1430 ahead of 1.1628). From NZ this week we have the latest Fonterra dairy auction to draw focus. While from Australia over the coming days we get retail sales, building approvals and the trade balance data to digest, along with the RBA’s testimony on housing market risks.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
NZD/AUD 0.8912 0.8850 0.9050 0.8867- 0.9156
AUD/NZD 1.1221 1.1050 1.1299 1.0922 - 1.1277

Friday 26th Sept 3:30PM (NZT)
The New Zealand dollar has seen a sharp rejection from the 0.9150 resistance level (1.0929 support) over the course of this week. Fonterra’s downward revision to its forecasted pay-out weight on the NZD, but the real damage was done by the RBNZ. Their surprise press release yesterday suggested the level of the currency was “unjustified” and “unsustainable” and it made a much more direct threat toward intervention. This saw the NZD lose over one cent of its value to the Australian dollar over the space of the following 12 hours. Although there is always potential for a corrective bounce, the risks remain skewed to further NZD weakness and a move back below 0.9000 (above 1.1111). Expect 0.9050 (1.1050) to cap any potential near term strength. Next week from NZ we have building consents and business confidence data to digest. While from Australia we get retail sales, building approvals and the trade balance numbers.
The current interbank midrate is:    NZDAUD 0.9025    AUDNZD 1.1080

The interbank range this week has been:    NZDAUD 0.9005- 0.9158    AUDNZD 1.0920 - 1.1105
Tuesday 23rd Sept 4:00PM (NZT)
The New Zealand dollar has continued its correction higher against the Australian dollar over the past week and recently tested resistance around 0.9150 (support around 1.0929). Last week’s better than expected GDP data from NZ helped, as did a market friendly general election result over the weekend. But the AUD has also seen pressure recently from a negative report by Roubini Economics and further concerns about growth in China. The 0.9150 (1.0929) area should provide a tough barrier for the pair to overcome and selling current levels is recommended for those looking to purchase Australian dollars. I expect to see the pair eventually turn back down and head sub 0.9000 (over 1.1111) again over the coming weeks. The economic calendar is light from both countries this week with only the trade balance from NZ and the financial stability review and a speech by Governor Stevens from Australia.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
NZD/AUD 0.9130 0.8850 0.9150 0.9008- 0.9158
AUD/NZD 1.0953 1.0929 1.1299 1.0920 - 1.1101

Friday 19th Sept 2:00PM (NZT)
After struggling to overcome resistance around 0.9050/60 (1.1050 support) for much of this week the New Zealand dollar finally seems to broken higher in the past few hours. Yesterday’s better than expected GDP result has certainly helped the NZD and the way is now open for a move up to the next level of resistance around 0.9150 (support 1.0930). I would expect that to provide a much tougher barrier and NZD selling ahead of that level is recommended for those looking to purchase Australian dollars. We have seen a notable pick up in FX market volatility over the past couple of weeks and it seems likely this will continue in the near term. Leaving limit orders at targeted levels is a good way to try and take advantage of this increased volatility for those with the interest to transact. Next week is a quiet one for data with only the leading index and the RBA financial stability review from Australia, while from NZ we have consumer sentiment and the trade balance to draw focus.
The current interbank midrate is:    NZDAUD 0.9075    AUDNZD 1.1019

The interbank range this week has been:    NZDAUD 0.8984- 0.9089    AUDNZD 1.1022 - 1.1131
Tuesday 16th Sept 3:00PM (NZT)
Weakness in the Australian dollar has been the main driver of this pair over the past week. Record Australian employment data only provided temporary relief for the AUD as it ended last week as one of the worst performing currencies. Over the weekend the release of soft Chinese data also weight on the AUD and this has help the pair trade up to resistance around 0.9050 (support 1.1050). We have now seen a significant bounce from the 0.8853 low (1.1296 high) that traded 11 days ago. I expect either 0.9050 (1.1050), or perhaps the next level of resistance around 0.9150 (1.0930), to cap this period of NZD strength in the pair. Those looking to purchase AUD’s with NZD’s should consider doing some at the current level, and work an order ahead of 0.9150 for the rest. After today’s limited impact from the RBA monetary policy meeting minutes’, in NZ we have another dairy auction tonight, followed  by current account and GDP data later in the week.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
NZD/AUD 0.9053 0.8850 0.9050 0.8907- 0.9062
AUD/NZD 1.1046 1.1050 1.1300 1.1035 - 1.1227

Friday 12th Sept 2:00PM (NZT)
We have seen a significant turnaround in this pair over the course of the week with NZD outperformance pushing the pair above the 0.8900/20 resistance area (support 1.1210). The move has been almost entirely driven by weakness in the Australian dollar as it finally seems to have succumbed to broad based USD strength. The only hiccup in the NZD outperformance came yesterday in the wake of the RBNZ monetary policy statement. The NZD dramatically underperformed the AUD thanks to some strong words from the RBNZ with regards the value of the NZD. But that dip was short lived, as further AUD weakness caused the NZD to bounce sharply from the key 0.8900/20 (resistance 1.1210) area. It seems likely the pair will test initial resistance around 0.9050 (support 1.1050), with any move through that level targeting 0.9150 (1.1030). Selling into that potential NZD strength is recommended for those looking to buy AUD with their New Zealand dollars. Next week the focus turns to the RBA minutes along with NZ current account and GDP data.
The current interbank midrate is:    NZDAUD 0.8998    AUDNZD 1.1114

The interbank range this week has been:    NZDAUD 0.8854- 0.9016    AUDNZD 1.1092 - 1.1295
Tuesday 9th Sept 2:00PM (NZT)
The New Zealand dollar remained under pressure from the AUD for most of last week. Encouraging Australian data helped the AUD to outperform most other currencies and against the NZD this drove the cross down to 0.8854 (up to 1.1294). However, we have seen something of a corrective NZD bounce in the pair in the early stages of this week. There has been no fundamental driver for the move which has largely come from a weaker Australian dollar over the past 36 hours. This correction has the pair knocking on the door of initial NZD resistance around 0.8920 (AUD support 1.1210). So far that level has capped NZD gains and while this level contains the price action, a resumption of pressure on the NZD should not be ruled out. However, A sustained move above 0.8920 (below 1.1210), would open the way for broader correction toward 0.9050 (1.1050). From NZ this week we have the RBNZ monetary policy statement to draw focus while from Australia we get consumer sentiment and employment change data.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
NZD/AUD 0.8913 0.8850 0.9050 0.8854- 0.8992
AUD/NZD 1.1220 1.1050 1.1299 1.1121 - 1.1295

Friday 5th Sept 2:30PM (NZT)
This pair has lost significant ground over the course of this week and it continues to look very vulnerable currently trading below key support around 0.8900 (resistance around 1.1236). Without a quick recovery further downside price action looks likely for the NZD. Weakness in the New Zealand dollar has been a driver with dairy prices taking another big fall. But the cross has also been driven lower by a solid performance from the Australian dollar. The AUD has been one of the better performing currencies over the past few weeks. Improving data and recent comments from the RBA’s Steven’s that have reduced the risk of any further rate cuts have helped support the AUD. With the pair holding below 0.8900 (above 1.1236) the risk has dramatically heightened that we could see 0.8600 (1.1628) by the end of the year. We have the RBNZ rate meeting next week to draw focus along with Australian data in the form of business confidence, consumer sentiment and employment change.
The current interbank midrate is:    NZDAUD 0.8867    AUDNZD 1.1278

The interbank range this week has been:    NZDAUD 0.8858- 0.8992    AUDNZD 1.1121 - 1.1290
Tuesday 2nd Sept 2:00PM (NZT)
The past week has seen a period of consolidation for this pair with prices largely drifting back and forward in a tight range between 0.8940 and 0.8980 (1.1186 and 1.1136). Key support around 0.8920 (resistance around 1.1211) has never really been tested, and this suggests a corrective bounce back in demand for the NZD should eventuate at some stage. The 0.9050 (1.1050) level would be the initial target for any such correction, with 0.9150 (support 1.0930) providing the next target should level that be overcome. There is plenty of data this week that could influence the pair starting with this afternoons RBA rate statement. The focus will be on the strength of language from the central bank around the current level of the Australian dollar. Then tonight we have the latest global dairy trade auction from Fonterra, the result of which could easily influence the value of the NZD. The second half of the week sees Australian GDP, retail sales and trade balance data hit the wires, all of which will be closely watched.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
NZD/AUD 0.8976 0.8920 0.9150 0.8939- 0.8984
AUD/NZD 1.1141 1.0929 1.1211 1.1131 - 1.1187

Friday 29th Aug 1:30PM (NZT)
This pair broke down below the psychological level of 0.9000 (1.1111) in early Monday morning trade before eventually reaching a low of 0.8939 (high 1.1190). Since then trading has been very subdued with mostly sideways price action around the 0.8965 (1.1155) level been seen. Key support comes in around 0.8920 (resistance 1.1210) and we have yet to see a real test of that area. I still feel that level will contain the NZ dollar downside for now, and we could easily see a significant bounce develop from there which would target 0.9050 (1.1050) and possible even 0.9150 (1.0930). From NZ the economic calendar is looking very light with only the overseas trade index to draw focus. While from Australia we have building approvals, the current account, the RBA rate statement, GDP, retails sales and the trade balance.
The current interbank midrate is:    NZDAUD 0.8946    AUDNZD 1.1178

The interbank range this week has been:    NZDAUD 0.8939- 0.9043    AUDNZD 1.1059 - 1.1187
Tuesday 26th Aug 1:30PM (NZT)
The New Zealand dollar has maintained its downside bias, although the majority of losses this week came in the space of a few minutes yesterday morning. In very thin market conditions on Monday morning the New Zealand dollar came under heavy selling pressure in the absence of any fundamental news. It seems a flow came to market that triggered the selling and there may well have been some stop loss orders against the AUD below 0.9000 (above 1.1111) which exaggerated the move. The pair now looks very likely to test the key support area of 0.8920 (resistance at 1.1211) in the near term. I expect that level to contain the NZD downside for now, and we should see a significant bounce. Those looking to sell NZD and buy AUD should take advantage of any such bounce as the tide has certainly turned on this pair and it is increasingly unlikely we will see levels over 0.9200 (under 1.0870) again. Resistance on the topside comes in around 0.9050 (support around 1.1050) and then again around 0.9150 (1.0929) and one of those two level is likely to cap any potential bounce. From NZ this week we still have building consents and business confidence to come. While from Australia we have construction work done and private capital expenditure data to digest.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
NZD/AUD 0.8970 0.8920 0.9050 0.8957- 0.9098
AUD/NZD 1.1148 1.1050 1.1211 1.0991 - 1.1164

Friday 22nd Aug 2:00PM (NZT)
The Australian dollar has materially outperformed the New Zealand dollar this week. The pair broke below support around 0.9060 (above resistance at 1.1038) on Tuesday in the wake of soft NZ producer prices data and has traded to a low so far of 0.9008 (high of 1.1101). The 0.9060 level (1.1038) now acts as NZD resistance, and while the market trades below there the risks are still skewed to the NZ dollar downside. The psychological level of 0.9000 (1.1111) provides only minor NZD support and below that the market will target the major support level of 0.8920 (resistance level of 1.1211). That is a realistic target over the coming weeks. Next week from New Zealand we have the trade balance, building consents, and business confidence data to draw focus. While from Australia the calendar is a little lighter with only construction work done and private capital expenditure data.
The current interbank midrate is:    NZDAUD 0.9018    AUDNZD 1.1089

The interbank range this week has been:    NZDAUD 0.9008- 0.9125    AUDNZD 1.0959 - 1.1101
Tuesday 19th Aug 4:30PM (NZT)
Over the past four weeks this pair had settled into a comfortable range trading between 0.9060 and 0.9160 (1.0920 - 1.1040). Earlier this morning however, the lower NZ dollar end of that range gave way which triggered some stop loss selling. The move was driven by very soft producer prices data out of New Zealand that would suggest there is little in the way of pipeline inflation pressure in the economy. This immediately saw the NZD come under pressure and the pair trade down through 0.9060 (up through 1.1040). The Australian dollar has also benefited from mostly improving data over the past week and it was given another small boost after the RBA minutes were released. When the pair pushed below 0.9060 (1.1040), the focus remains on the downside and a test of the psychologically important 0.9000 level (1.1110). Below there and support at 0.8920 (1.1210 resistance) beckons. We have a speech from RBA Governor Stevens to look forward to tomorrow, but aside from that there is largely only second tier data out from either country over the course of the week.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
NZD/AUD 0.9038 0.9000 0.9200 0.9037- 0.9132
AUD/NZD 1.1028 1.0870 1.1111 1.0951 - 1.1066

Friday 15th Aug 3:55PM (NZT)
This pair has spent the week establishing itself a comfortable new trading range with the NZ dollar at its more recent moderate levels. It seems likely that this will continue in the coming week or so at least. With expectation for both central banks to leave monetary policy setting unchanged through to the end of the year at least, there appears to be little chance of a material shift in demand for either currency. The new formed inter bank trading range of .9050 - .9200 (1.0860 - 1.1050). offers target points for those looking to transact with the luxury of time on their side. Certainly the pair seems a lot more comfortable around current levels, than it did just a few weeks ago.
The current interbank midrate is:    NZDAUD .9100    AUDNZD 1.0989

The interbank range this week has been:    NZDAUD .9070 - .9145    AUDNZD 1.0935 - 1.1025
Tuesday 12th Aug 2:00PM (NZT)
The past month has seen a dramatic fall from the NZ dollar in this pair from 0.9400 (1.0638) to a low so far of 0.9051 (high of 1.1049). It now looks like that NZ dollar downside momentum has waned and for the time being we are stuck between support around 0.9060 (resistance 1.1038) and resistance around 0.9160 (support around 1.0917). Those two levels have contained the pair for just over two weeks now and there seems little impetus to break out of that range in the near term. Data this week from Australia that could influence includes consumer sentiment, the wage price index, and inflation expectations. While from New Zealand we get the Business NZ manufacturing index along with retail sales data.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
NZD/AUD 0.9130 0.9000 0.9200 0.9051- 0.9149
AUD/NZD 1.0953 1.0870 1.1111 1.0930 - 1.1048

Friday 8th Aug 2:30PM (NZT)
It has been an interesting week for this pair with some big swings in price action driven by data releases. The cross opened the week trading quietly around 0.9130 (1.0953), but this was short lived as Tuesday night’s dairy auction once again saw a dramatic fall in prices paid. The New Zealand dollar was immediately put under pressure and soft NZ employment change data a few hours later didn’t help. The pair traded back down to support around the 0.9060 level (resistance around 1.1038) where it stayed heading into yesterday’s Australian employment release. After that data also disappointed the market it was the Australian dollars turn to feel the heat as sellers jumped all over it. This caused the NZD to sharply recover all the previously lost ground and the pair now trades back around 0.9130 (1.0953). Support around 0.9060 (resistance around 1.1038) has now contained the NZD weakness on three separate occasions over the past couple of months and the sharp recoveries seen after each attempt suggest it will continue to provide a formidable barrier on the downside. I’m not expecting that level to be broken in the near term and we could easily now see the NZD test the topside with the initial target of 0.9200 (1.0870). Next week from NZ we have retail sales and the Business NZ manufacturing index. While from Australia we get business confidence, consumer sentiment, the wage price index and inflation expectations.
The current interbank midrate is:    NZDAUD 0.9120    AUDNZD 1.0965

The interbank range this week has been:    NZDAUD 0.9051- 0.9154    AUDNZD 1.0925 - 1.1048
Tuesday 5th Aug 1:30PM (NZT)
This pair saw the NZ dollar recover strongly off the 0.9050 (1.1050 resistance) area last week, although the NZD upside momentum seem to have run out of steam in the last couple of days. The cross seems comfortable trading around the 0.9130/40 (1.0950) area at the moment, however we have a number of releases over the coming days that could impact. First up is today’s RBA monetary policy statement. This should hold few surprises, with little change expected in the bank's assessment of the economy. The real chance for action in the pair will come with the release of employment data from New Zealand tomorrow and Australia’s on Thursday. Topside resistance comes in around 0.9200 (1.0870) while the downside continues to be support around 0.9060 (1.1040).
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
NZD/AUD 0.9135 0.9000 0.9200 0.9051- 0.9154
AUD/NZD 1.0947 1.0870 1.1111 1.0925 - 1.1048

Friday 1st Aug 1:50PM (NZT)
We have seen some interesting price action for this pair over the past week and we may well have seen the start of a corrective NZD bounce that could take the cross back through to 0.9200 (1.0870). Things didn’t start out so positively for the NZ dollar with Fonterra’s news that the forecasted pay-out for 2014/15 will be set at NZ$6. This was the low end of expectation and immediately saw the NZD under pressure. The pair traded down to key support around 0.9060 (resistance 1.1040), briefly moving through there and making a low of 0.9051 (high 1.1049), before the NZ dollar recovered. But it seems the failure to convincingly move below that NZ dollar support has sparked a corrective bounce and so far that has taken is all the way to 0.9147 (down to 1.0930). This move could easily extend further toward 0.9200 (1.0870) before running into further AUD support. There is plenty of data to drive prices next week with retail sales, the RBA rate statement and employment change all set for release from Australia. From NZ, we also get employment data along with the labour cost index.
The current interbank midrate is:    NZDAUD 0.9140    AUDNZD 1.0941

The interbank range this week has been:    NZDAUD 0.9051- 0.9147    AUDNZD 1.0933 - 1.1048
Tuesday 29th July 1:30PM (NZT)
The past two weeks have seen dramatic declines for this pair from levels around 0.9400 to a low of 0.9079 so far. The driving force has been weakness in the New Zealand dollar, although some Australian dollar strength has played a part. At the beginning of June the pair traded down to 0.9063 before recovering strongly, and so far that low has not been breached. This does leave the change of a corrective bounce intact, although I would suggest we are not likely to see gains to 0.9400 again anytime soon. There does seem to have been a tidal change in sentiment toward the NZD and this will likely limit any recovery in the pair to between 0.9160 and 0.9230. A break below 0.9060 will open the way for a test of the psychologically important 0.9000 level ahead of key support at 0.8920. I would not be getting carried away with losses below that level for now, as New Zealand still has a significant benefit in terms of interest rate differential and economic outlook to Australia.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
NZD/AUD 0.9091 0.9000 0.9200 0.9079- 0.9273
AUD/NZD 1.1000 1.0870 1.1111 1.0784 - 1.1015

Friday 25th July 4:0PM (NZT)
This pair has seen a dramatic turnaround over the past ten days with the NZD falling from 0.9400 (1.0638) to a low of 0.9079 (high of 1.1014) so far. The action this week has been driven by a combination of New Zealand dollar weakness and Australian dollar strength. The AUD gained on the back of firm inflation data and positive Chinese manufacturing numbers, while the NZD came under all sorts of pressure after the RBNZ signalled a pause in the tightening cycle and jawboned the currency lower. The early June low of 0.9063 (high of 1.1034) is now in sight and will likely be tested soon. Any sustained move through that level opens the way for a test of 0.8920 support (1.1211 resistance). However, that may be a step too far at this stage and we could easily see a corrective bounce from the 0.9060 (1.1038) level develop over the coming days. Any such bounce will likely be capped around 0.9200 (1.0870). Next week from NZ we only have building consents data, while from Australia we get new home sales, building approvals, import prices and producer prices.
The current interbank midrate is:    NZDAUD 0.9106    AUDNZD 1.0982

The interbank range this week has been:    NZDAUD 0.9079- 0.9282    AUDNZD 1.0774 - 1.1015
Tuesday 22th July 2:30PM (NZT)
This pair has been under pressure ever since last Tuesday’s Global Dairy Trade auction. The much weaker than expected dairy prices weighed on the New Zealand dollar and these were followed a few hours later by softer than forecast NZ inflation. As a result the cross declined from just under 0.9400 (1.06.38) to a low so far of 0.9239 (high 1.0824). A NZD small bounce from there at the start of this week has seen the pair trade quietly around the 0.9270 (1.0790) level ever since. Tomorrow from Australia we get inflation data that will be closely watched, although the biggest driver for the pair this week is likely to be the RBNZ rate announcement on Thursday. Although many still expect the central bank to hike rates to 3.5% it is not a foregone conclusion, and even if they do hike they are likely to signal a pause in the tightening cycle through to the end of the year. For the time being the risks remain to the NZ dollar downside with a move below 0.9230 (above 1.0835) targeting 0.9160 (1.0920) and then 0.9060 (1.1040).
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
NZD/AUD 0.9260 0.9200 0.9400 0.9239- 0.9396
AUD/NZD 1.0799 1.0638 1.0870 1.0643 - 1.0824

Friday 18th July 4:0PM (NZT)
The Australian dollar has completely outperformed the NZD this week with the cross collapsing from just below 0.9400 (above 1.0638) to a low so far of 0.9259 (1.0800). Weakness in the New Zealand dollar has done the damage and this was driven by another large fall in dairy prices combining with softer than expected inflation data. An expected interest rate hike by the RBNZ next week is now a much closer call and the local currency has moved to reflect this. The sharp turnaround from recent highs suggests this move has further to run, although we could easily see a corrective bounce in the short term from anywhere above initial support at 0.9230 (resistance at 1.0834). I would expect to see sellers lining up to take advantage of any such bounce and this could well limit it to the 0.9300 level (1.0753). This pair was trading below 0.9100 (above 1.0989) in early June and if the market continues to view the NZD as overvalued we could well trade back down there in the coming weeks. The key event for next week will be that RBNZ meeting on Wednesday. In Australia the focus will turn to a speech from RBA Governor Stevens and  inflation data also set for release on Wednesday.
The current interbank midrate is:    NZDAUD 0.9263    AUDNZD 1.0796

The interbank range this week has been:    NZDAUD 0.9259- 0.9396    AUDNZD 1.0643 - 1.0800
Tuesday 15th July 1:05PM (NZT)
The New Zealand dollar made gains against the AUD in the first half of last week, but those gains stalled just above 0.9400 (below 1.0638), and since then we have seen mostly quiet trading below that level. Both currencies have had a quiet week and this is reflected in the ever decreasing range of the pair. This low volatility won’t last for long however and there is plenty this week that could spark a move. The RBA minutes are first up this afternoon, although they shouldn’t hold many surprises. Tonight we have another Global Dairy Trade Auction, and tomorrow we get NZ inflation data. Taking a look at the broader picture, we still view the current NZD strength as an opportunity to buy AUD’s. With resistance around 0.9400 (support 1.0640) capping the NZD topside, there is potential for a material correction lower.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
NZD/AUD 0.9383 0.9200 0.9400 0.9329- 0.9413
AUD/NZD 1.0658 1.0638 1.0870 1.0624 - 1.0719

Friday 11th July 1:30PM (NZT)
The New Zealand dollar has been a strong performer this week and as such the cross to the AUD has gained significant ground from Monday’s 0.9317 low (1.0733 high). The NZD has benefited from an upgraded outlook by Fitch ratings agency, while the Australian dollar struggled somewhat in the wake of yesterday’s employment data. There is some resistance just above 0.9400 (support below 1.0638) and so far this has capped the gains, but further investigations above that level can’t be ruled out for now. In the broader scheme of things the current level provides good value buying of Australian dollars and those with the interest should take advantage of this strength in the NZD. Next week from NZ we have inflation data which is the only major release ahead of July 24th’s RBNZ meeting. While from Australia we have the RBA minutes and business confidence data to digest.
The current interbank midrate is:    NZDAUD 0.9390    AUDNZD 1.0650

The interbank range this week has been:    NZDAUD 0.9317- 0.9413    AUDNZD 1.0624 - 1.0734
Tuesday 8th July 2:45PM (NZT)
This pair has recovered strongly since posting a 0.9063 low (1.1034 high) back in early June. A couple of technical indicators are however starting to signal that momentum is waning and this should help to keep further gains limited. Selling into strength above 0.9350 (below 1.0695) is therefore recommended with the target for an eventual pullback to support around 0.9200 (1.0870). This morning’s release of NZ’s Quarterly Survey of Business Opinion has seen demand for the NZD wane a touch and this only reinforces the view that levels above 0.9350 offer good value buying of AUD. The key release for this pair comes in the form of Thursday’s Australian employment data which will be closely watched. Expectations are for a gain of around 12.3k.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
NZD/AUD 0.9335 0.9150 0.9350 0.9228- 0.9367
AUD/NZD 1.0712 1.0700 1.0930 1.0676 - 1.0837

Friday 4th July 12:30PM (NZT)
Changes in the value of the Australian dollar have been the main driver of this pair over the course of the week. As the AUD gained ground on Monday and Tuesday the cross to the NZD pulled back below 0.9250 (1.0811), but since then the AUD has been under all sorts of pressure and as such the cross has rebounded strongly and now trades just above 0.9350 (1.0695). Poor trade balance and retail sales data did the damage to the Australian dollar along with comments from RBA Governor Stevens. The NZD on the other hand has remained surprisingly well supported in the face of falling dairy prices and solid US data, although the pressure is likely to come at some stage. A move toward 0.9400 (1.0638) can’t be ruled out, especially given the strong performance of the pair over the last 3 days. However resistance around 0.9400 (1.0638) could well cap the pair and selling NZD toward that level is recommended.
The current interbank midrate is:    NZDAUD 0.9355    AUDNZD 1.0689

The interbank range this week has been:    NZDAUD 0.9228- 0.9367    AUDNZD 1.0676 - 1.0837
Tuesday 1st July 2:15PM (NZT)
This pair remains within its recent range, albeit up towards the high NZD end of that range. The primary focus for the week comes later today as the RBA makes its monetary policy statement. It seems unlikely we will see a shift in their neutral stance today, but the statement will be very closely followed. Expect the recent ranges to continue in the near terms at least. It seems unlikely the remaining Australian data in the form of the trade balance, building approval, or retails sales, will see the pair push outside the .9350 NZD resistance (1.0700 AUD support) this week. With this in mind current levels look to offer good value buying of AUD with NZD. Patience will likely pay off for those looking to buy NZD at lower levels.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
NZD/AUD .9300 .9150 .9350 .9240 - .9334
AUD/NZD 1.0752 1.0700 1.0930 1.0713 - 1.0823

Friday 27th June 2:30PM (NZT)
It has been an interesting week for this pair. Strong Chinese manufacturing data early in the week saw the AUD outperform. However, this was short lived as the disappointing US numbers pushed global interest rates lower. Lower global yields saw the demand for the NZD increase, because of the relatively high NZ rates. This increased demand saw various rounds of stop loss NZD buying push the pair through initial resistance at .9280 (support 1.0775), and the pair now looks to be consolidating at the relatively elevated NZD levels. Further gains from the NZD are likely to be much harder fought, and current levels offer good value buying of AUD with NZ dollars.
The current interbank midrate is:    NZDAUD .9317    AUDNZD 1.0733

The interbank range this week has been:    NZDAUD .9240 - .9334    AUDNZD 1.0713 - 1.0823
Tuesday 24th June 2:43PM (NZT)
This pair continues to trade in a relatively narrow band, towards the higher NZD part of the wider .9100 -.9300 (1.0750 - 1.1000) trading band. There is little economic news due in either economy to materially move rates this week, albeit the AUD mildly outperformed yesterday after the Chinese manufacturing numbers. Expect the recent ranges to persist for some time yet, with patience required if you are looking to buy NZ dollars around the current levels.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
NZD/AUD .9245 .9080 .9280 .9229 - .9303
AUD/NZD 1.0817 1.0780 1.1010 1.0750 - 1.0835

Friday 20th June 2:30PM (NZT) - Update
Up until yesterdays NZ GDP number, the NZD saw grinding appreciation of the Australian dollar for most of the week. The resistance around the .9280 (support 1.0780) really has stalled the NZD movement however, and this was helped by the under expectation GDP number yesterday. The NZD is close to the top of the recent range, and looks to offer good value buying of Australian dollars around the current levels. Expect further range trading from this pair next week, with little in the way of material economic news expected from either economy. Its seems likely the .9200 -.9300 rage (1.0750 - 1.0870) will contain price action.
The current interbank midrate is:    NZDAUD 0.9265    AUDNZD 1.0793

The interbank range this week has been:    NZDAUD 0.9196 - .9303    AUDNZD 1.0750 - 1.0875
Tuesday 17th June 3:43PM (NZT)
This pair remains very well contained by its wider recent range. The only material move of the last week came after the RBNZ’s monetary policy announcement and the demand for NZ dollars materially increased for around 24 hours. Since then the pair has consolidated the move towards the higher NZD end of the range. This afternoons RBA meeting minutes were of limited impact and now the focus moves to Thursdays NZ GDP number. Certainly the current levels provide an opportunity for those looking to buy Australian dollars with NZD at more economic levels than at a week or so ago. Discounting a materially strong GDP number than forecast, look for the pair to continue to trade in the increasing familiar wider range for the time being.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
NZD/AUD .9250 .9080 .9280 .9081 - .9249
AUD/NZD 1.0810 1.0780 1.1010 1.0812 - 1.1012

Friday 13th June 2:00PM (NZT) - Update
After a relatively quiet start to the week with the NZD consolidating off its lows at .9060 (1.1040 highs), yesterdays RBNZ announcement provided the impetus for the pair to move back towards more comfortable ground, closer to recent averages. The NZ dollar jumped over 1% in the hours following the statement and has consolidated just above the .9200 (below 1.0870 ) level. With the pair back in far more comfortable territory, immediate direction has become less clear. It seems likely that the .9100 - .9300 (1.0750 - 1.0990) range will contain the trading in the coming week, which has the NZ GDP numbers next Thursday as its primary focus. A speech by RBA Gov. Stevens on Monday will also be closely watched.
The current interbank midrate is : NZDAUD  .9202   AUDNZD 1.0867

The interbank range this week has been: NZDAUD .9071 - .9233 AUDNZD 1.0831 - 1.1024     
Tuesday 10th June 1:00PM (NZT)
The New Zealand dollar recovered some ground against the Australian dollar in the middle of last week, but the bounce was largely corrective and as such a resurgent AUD has again taken the lead. The AUD benefited from a stable RBA outlook and better than expected GDP data and this has driven the pair back down below 0.9100 (above 1.0989). The key resistance level of 0.9160 (support level of 1.0917) was never seriously tested with the market only briefly trading to 0.9150 (1.0929) before being rejected. This price action leaves the focus firmly on the downside for the time being and I still expect a test of 0.9000 (1.1111) at some stage. The big unknown on the week comes in the form of the RBNZ monetary policy statement on Thursday. A 0.25% hike is fully baked in, and the focus will turn to whether or not the central bank now signals a pause in the tightening cycle. Expect 0.9000 to 0.9160 (1.1111 to 1.0989) to contain trade ahead of the RBNZ decision, with price action after that largely in their hands. Also from Australia this week we have business confidence, consumer sentiment, and employment change data to draw focus.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
NZD/AUD 0.9095 0.9000 0.9200 0.9063- 0.9150
AUD/NZD 1.0995 1.0917 1.1111 1.0929 - 1.1034

Friday 6th June 2:30PM (NZT) - Update
The New Zealand dollar has remained under pressure from a resurgent AUD for much of this week. The pair did test the key resistance level of 0.9160 (support at 1.0917) on Monday evening, but it was quickly rejected from there and the recent downtrend resumed, thanks in large part to strong Australian GDP data, taking the cross to a low of 0.9063 (high of 1.1034) on Wednesday. The small bounce from that low looks to have failed just above 0.9100 (under 1.0989) and this would be a negative signal for the pair. I still expect an eventual test of 0.9000 (1.1111) and only a move above 0.9160 (below 1.9017) would negate that. We do however have the RBNZ monetary policy statement next week which could throw a spanner in the works. That will be the key event for next week although from Australia we also get business confidence, consumer sentiment, and employment data.
The current interbank midrate is:    NZDAUD 0.9108    AUDNZD 1.0979

The interbank range this week has been:    NZDAUD 0.9063- 0.9161    AUDNZD 1.0916 - 1.1034
Tuesday 3rd June 6:30PM (NZT)
The past week has seen a healthy correction in this pair. The NZD has been weighed on by soft dairy prices recently and last week’s drop in business confidence accelerated the downside price action. This caused support at 0.9160 (resistance at 1.0917) to give away as the pair headed straight to a low of 0.9105 (high of 1.0983). We have seen a small bounce off that low helped by weak building consents data from Australia yesterday. This caused the AUD come under pressure, but the pair still remains below the key 0.9160 (1.0917) level, which now acts as NZ dollar resistance. While below there the risks are still skewed to the downside and a move toward 0.9000 (1.1111) cannot be ruled out. Key data this week could certainly play a part. We have the RBA rate statement this afternoon along with GDP and trade balance later in the week.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
NZD/AUD 0.9144 0.9000 0.9160 0.9105- 0.9263
AUD/NZD 1.0936 1.0917 1.1111 1.0796 - 1.0983

Friday 30th May 2:00PM (NZT) - Update
This week has proved to be a significant one for the NZD - AUD pairing. Support at 0.9160 (resistance at 1.0917) that had for the most part contained the downside since mid-December, finally gave way and follow through selling took the pair straight toward 0.9100 (1.0989). The New Zealand dollar had recently started to feel the weight of declining dairy prices, and when on Wednesday we saw a substantial fall in business confidence, the pressure only increased. But the decisive break came as the Australian dollar rallied strongly in the wake of yesterday’s capital expenditure data. This caused 0.9160 (1.0917) to give way and the pair hasn’t looked back since. I would now expect a broader NZD pullback to unfold, and this should target 0.9000 (1.1111) and possibly even 0.8900 (1.1235) over the coming weeks. Only a sustained NZD recovery back above 0.9160 (below 1.0917) would change that view. There isn’t much to get excited about next week from NZ. However from Australia we get building consents, retail sales, the RBA rate meeting, GDP, and the trade balance.
The current interbank midrate is:    NZDAUD 0.9145    AUDNZD 1.0935

The interbank range this week has been:    NZDAUD 0.9105- 0.9288    AUDNZD 1.0767 - 1.0983
Tuesday 27th May 2:30PM (NZT)
Foreign exchange market volatility is a very low levels at the moment as is evidenced by the 0.9200 to 0.9300 (1.0870 to 1.0753) range that has contained this pair for nearly three weeks now. The top of that range was tested mid last week as the Australian dollar came under pressure on the back of soft consumer sentiment data, but gains stalled and the NZD eventually drifted lower again. The New Zealand dollar has also seen periods of pressure as the overhang of softer dairy prices continues to weigh and it seems likely this pair will see more directionless trading in the near term. From NZ this week we have business confidence and building consents figures. While from Australia we get construction work done, new home sales, and private capital expenditure data. Key downside support comes in around 0.9160 (resistance around 1.0917), although that seems pretty far away at this stage. Initial topside resistance at 0.9310 (support at 1.0741) has capped gains recently and the market will have to overcome that before it can have another crack toward 0.9400 (1.0638).
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
NZD/AUD 0.9255 0.9160 0.9310 0.9235- 0.9303
AUD/NZD 1.0805 1.0741 1.0917 1.0749 - 1.0828

Thursday 22nd May 3:30PM (NZT) - Update
Both the New Zealand dollar and the Australian dollar have seen selling pressure this week, but it is the AUD that has led the way. As a result the cross rate has ground its way higher due to the relative ‘outperformance’ of the NZD. Declining iron ore prices and soft consumer sentiment data have weighed on the AUD, while the NZD saw pressure thanks to continued falls in dairy prices. So far the topside of the pair has been capped by minor resistance around 0.9300 (support at 1.0750), but this move could easily overcome that and trade back toward 0.9400 (1.0640). This downside should be contained by 0.9200 (1.0870) over the coming week. Next week from Australia we get data on construction work done, new home sales, and private capital expenditure. While from NZ we have the trade balance, business confidence, and building consents data.
The current interbank midrate is:    NZDAUD 0.9263    AUDNZD 1.0796

The interbank range this week has been:    NZDAUD 0.9209- 0.9303    AUDNZD 1.0749 - 1.0859
Tuesday 20th May 3:00PM (NZT)
The past week has seen a continuation of very subdued trading in general across FX markets, and this pairing is no exception. A quiet range of 0.9194 to 0.9262 (1.0796 to 1.00876) has actually contained trading since the 8th May. Key support at 0.9160 (resistance at 1.0917) hasn’t been tested since this time last month and between then and now we’ve only had one brief flurry up toward 0.9400 (down toward 1.0638), which was quickly reversed. There is little to get excited about this week either with only inflation expectations set for release from NZ. From Australia it’s looking a little more interesting with today’s RBA minutes followed by consumer sentiment, the wage price index, and inflation expectations on Thursday. It seems likely to expect further range trading between 0.9160 and 0.9310 (1.0741 and 1.0917) in the near term.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
NZD/AUD 0.9258 0.9160 0.9310 0.9194- 0.9262
AUD/NZD 1.0801 1.0741 1.0917 1.0796 - 1.0876

Friday 16th May 2:00PM (NZT) - Update
We have seen rather subdued and directionless trading in this pair for much of the past week. The downside has been supported around 0.9200 (upside 1.0870), while NZD gains in the last couple of  days only made it as far at 0.9262 ( down to 1.0797) before running out of momentum. Government budgets released in both countries had little impact and the same can be said for the few economic data releases we have seen. The key downside level remains support around 0.9160 (resistance around 1.0917), although it hasn’t come close to being tested this week. While the market holds this level we can expect further ranging with the potential for a move up towards 0.9400 (down towards 1.0638). From Australia next week we have the RBA minutes, consumer sentiment, the wage price index, and inflation expectations data to digest. While from NZ we just have producer prices and inflation expectations of any note.
The current interbank midrate is:    NZDAUD 0.9253    AUDNZD 1.0807

The interbank range this week has been:    NZDAUD 0.9194- 0.9262    AUDNZD 1.0796 - 1.0876
Tuesday 13th May 2:00PM (NZT)
Last week’s sharp reversal from just below 0.9400 (1.0640) seems to have run out of momentum at the 0.9200 (1.0870) level and a tight trading range has developed since then. To be fair there is very little going on in the wider market so far this week, although that could change over the coming days. We have the Australian budget this afternoon which could liven things up. This will be followed by retail sales from New Zealand tomorrow morning along with the RBNZ financial stability report. The key level comes in around 0.9160 (1.0920) for further NZD pressure, and while the market holds NZD above there, we are likely in for further ranging between there and 0.9400 (1.0640). Any break below 0.9160 (1.0920) however, would open the way for a much bigger correction targeting 0.8920 (1.1210) initially, albeit of limited probability in the short term.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
NZD/AUD 0.9220 0.9160 0.9310 0.9194- 0.9389
AUD/NZD 1.0846 1.0741 1.0917 1.0651 - 1.0876

Friday 9th May 2:00PM (NZT) - Update
The AUD saw pressure in the early part of the week driven by a strong New Zealand dollar. That all changed however, on Tuesday evening as the NZD peaked and started to pull back. Another fall in dairy prices at Fonterra’s auction helped, but the real downside action came in the wake of Governor Wheeler’s talk of currency intervention on Wednesday morning. This turned the tide for the NZD and since then we have seen a relentless grind lower. Downside in the NZD accelerated yesterday after Australian employment came in better than expected, which boosted the AUD significantly. So in a little over a week the pair has moved from 0.9200(1.0870) to just under 0.9400 (just over 1.0640), then moved back again. The key level now is towards 0.9160 (1.0920), and we could easily see another test of it over the coming days. But more than anything, recent price action just confirms the broad ranging nature of the pair for the time being.
The current interbank midrate is:    NZDAUD 0.9215    AUDNZD 1.0852

The interbank range this week has been:    NZDAUD 0.9199 - 0.9389    AUDNZD 1.0651 - 1.0871
Tuesday 6th May 2:00PM (NZT)
The New Zealand dollar has been a strong performer this week making gains against most other currencies. Against the Australian dollar the NZD has managed to overcome minor resistance at 0.9310 (support at 1.0741) and consolidate those gains to currently trade around 0.9360 (1.0684). There has been no key fundamental news driving the current rally, however last week’s supportive NZD data has combined with yesterday’s soft Australian building consents to help support current positive sentiment in the pair. This afternoon we have the RBA meeting to draw focus, although few expect any surprises from the central bank. Tomorrow’s NZ employment data will be followed by Australian retails sales figures. Then on Thursday it’s Australia’s turn to release employment change numbers. These releases should add some volatility to the pair, with current price action suggesting the market is looking for a continuation of subdued Australian and positive NZ data.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
NZD/AUD 0.9360 0.9310 0.9510 0.9206 - 0.9373
AUD/NZD 1.0684 1.0515 1.0741 1.0669 - 1.0862

Friday 2nd May 3:00PM (NZT) - Update
This week has seen the New Zealand dollar continue to recover against the AUD after bouncing off support at 0.9160 (resistance 1.0920) back on the 22nd March. Certainly solid trade balance and building consents data have helped the NZD although the move is as much about momentum as much as anything else. With low overall FX volatility at the moment, established ranges are dominating and for the NZD-AUD pairing this means a continuation of 0.9160 - 0.9460 (1.0570 - 1.0920) range for the time being. Next week could prove interesting however, with NZ employment data on Wednesday and a raft of Australian releases. Building approvals, trade balance, the RBA rate review and statement, retail sales, and employment change are all set for release from Australia.
The current interbank midrate is:    NZDAUD 0.9295    AUDNZD 1.0758

The interbank range this week has been:    NZDAUD 0.9202 - 0.9316    AUDNZD 1.0734 - 1.0868
Tuesday 29th April 3:30PM (NZT)
This pair shot up from support around 0.9160 (down from resistance 1.0920) last week in the wake of Australia’s softer than expected inflation data. The NZD gains reached as far as 0.9290 (1.0765) before running out of steam, and in the last 24 hours the NZD pull back extended all the way down to 0.9200 (up to 1.0870). The pullback from those highs comes as the market digested the RBNZ’s rate statement, and the question mark that is now hanging over a tightening in July. This has taken some of the wind out of the NZD’s sails and we are likely to now see a period of ranging between 0.9160 and 0.9360. Building consents and business confidence numbers from New Zealand tomorrow will draw some focus, as will Friday’s Australian producer prices data.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
NZD/AUD 0.9230 0.9160 0.9310 0.9164 - 0.9290
AUD/NZD 1.0834 1.0741 1.0917 1.0764 - 1.0912

Wednesday 23rd April 4:30PM (NZT) - Update
The past week has seen this pair test the 0.9160 support level (1.0920 resistance) on three separate occasions. Each time the level has held and now, in the wake of softer than expected Australian inflation data, we have seen a strong NZD bounce. This is very positive price action and I would expect the pressure on the AUD to continue. A test of 0.9300 (1.0750) is likely over the coming days. We do however, still have the RBNZ rate meeting to digest tomorrow which adds a level of uncertainty in the very near term.  Although a 0.25% hike is a certainty, there is a degree of doubt about how the bank will interpret NZ’s softer than expected inflation data that was released last week.
The current interbank midrate is:    NZDAUD 0.9240    AUDNZD 1.0823

The interbank range this week has been:    NZDAUD 0.9164 - 0.9245    AUDNZD 1.0817 - 1.0912
Thursday 17th April 3:30PM (NZT) - Update
This pair has finally met the target of pulling back to support between 0.9160 and 0.9180 (1.0917 and 1.0893). The week’s low of 0.9164 (high of 1.0912) traded yesterday in the wake of softer than expected New Zealand inflation. This data, combined with a further reduction in dairy prices, kept the NZD on the back foot for much of the week, relative to the Australian dollar. We have seen a bounce from that key support level to just over 0.9200 (1.0870) so far, although trade has been muted at best and it is unclear whether the recovery will continue or whether we’ll see another NZD test lower. Any break below 0.9160 (above 1.0917) would warn a much deeper correction is unfolding. While the pair holds above 0.9160 (below 1.0917) there is potential for a NZD recovery back to 0.9310 (1.0741). Australian inflation next week will draw focus, as will the RBNZ’s rate decision on Thursday.
The current interbank midrate is:    NZDAUD 0.9206    AUDNZD 1.0862

The interbank range this week has been:    NZDAUD 0.9164 - 0.9312    AUDNZD 1.0739 - 1.0912
Tuesday 15th April 2:30PM (NZT)
There has been a significant swing in sentiment towards the Australian dollar recently as indicated by the reversal of speculative short (sold) positions for the first time since May 2013. Nowhere is this more evident than in the NZDAUD (AUDNZD) cross that is now trading back down toward 0.9200 (1.0870). Key support between 0.9160 and 0.9180 (resistance 1.0917 and 1.0893) has yet to be properly tested, although the market is currently not far from there. Recent data from Australia has been improving with last week’s employment numbers especially encouraging. Later on in the week, we have business confidence and new motor vehicle sales figures that will draw focus, while from NZ we get key inflation data tomorrow. Initial topside resistance now comes in just over 0.9300 (support 1.0750) and this is likely to cap any bounce from the NZ dollar in the near term.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
NZD/AUD 0.9225 0.9160 0.9310 0.9195 - 0.9312
AUD/NZD 1.0840 1.0741 1.0917 1.0739 - 1.0875

Friday 11th April 3:30PM (NZT) - Update
For much of the past week both the New Zealand dollar and the Australian dollar rallied strongly against the USD. The cross rate has been driven by the timing of flows into each individual currency, with periods of relative outperformance for both the NZD and the AUD. This has caused some choppy price action in the cross, although a NZD downside bias has emerged since yesterday’s Australian employment data. That better than expected result boosted demand for the AUD and has driven the cross rate to the NZD down to a low of 0.9206 (high of 1.0862) so far. Once again it looks like a test of key support between 0.9160 and 0.9180 (resistance 1.0917 and 1.0893) could be on the cards. I would expect that level to contain the downside in the near term. The two key releases next week will be NZ inflation, and minutes from the Reserve Bank of Australia rate meeting.
The current interbank midrate is:    NZDAUD 0.9210    AUDNZD 1.0858

The interbank range this week has been:    NZDAUD 0.9206 - 0.9312    AUDNZD 1.0739 - 1.0862
Tuesday 8th April 1:30PM (NZT)
Last week’s decline in the NZD, triggered by weaker dairy prices, saw this pair trade down to a low 0.9229 (high of 1.0835). Key support between 0.9160 and 0.9180 (resistance between 1.0917 and 1.0893) was not tested and the pair has so far put in a small recovery. The initial target for this bounce is minor resistance a 0.9310 (support at 1.0741) and a failure to overcome that could well see the NZD turn lower again. Key for near term direction will be Australian employment data out on Thursday. This release will likely set the tone heading into the weekend and early next week. The market is only expecting a modest improvement in employment of +7.3k, after the previous months result surprised with a very strong +47.3k. The other data releases this week to keep an eye on are Australian business confidence out later this afternoon, and the Business NZ manufacturing index also released on Thursday.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
NZD/AUD 0.9285 0.9160 0.9310 0.9229 - 0.9393
AUD/NZD 1.0770 1.0741 1.0917 1.0646 - 1.0835

Friday 4th April 1:30PM (NZT) - Update
The New Zealand dollar was weighed on this week by news of an 8% decline in dairy prices at Fonterra’s regular auction. Selling in the NZD on the back of this caused the cross to the AUD to eventually break back below 0.9300 (above 1.0750), which in turn triggered further selling taking the pair down to a low so far of 0.9229 (up to 1.0835). This represents a significant pullback from the recent NZD highs around 0.9500 (1.0520) and the NZD losses may continue in the near term. There is support between 0.9160 (resistance 1.0920) and 0.9180 (1.0895) which I now expect the market to test. This NZD support is likely to contain the downside however, as the relative growth differential between the two countries remains substantial. Data from Australia this week has also been less than supportive of the AUD, and this will encourage buyers as the market approaches that support zone. Next week we get business confidence data from both countries, along with employment change from Australia and manufacturing index from NZ.
The current interbank midrate is:    NZDAUD 0.9260    AUDNZD 1.0799

The interbank range this week has been:    NZDAUD 0.9229 - 0.9393    AUDNZD 1.0646 - 1.0835
Tuesday 1st April 1:30PM (NZT)
Up until last Thursday the Australian dollar had been outperforming the New Zealand dollar as both currencies appreciated against the USD. This pressured the NZD to AUD cross to the downside and the pair traded to a NZD low of 0.9306 (high of 1.0746). But late last week the NZD saw a surge in buying, helped by some short (sold) positions stopping out. This caused the cross to the AUD to recover sharply from its lows and since then it has been trapped between 0.9350 and 0.9400 (1.0638 - 1.0695). The immediate focus now turns to the RBA rate meeting and statement later this afternoon. All eyes will be on any comments from Governor Steven’s to the level of the AUD. If he attempts to talk the currency down the pair could quickly be trading back above 0.9400 (below 1.0638). Later in the week Australian retail sales will draw attention along with building approvals and the trade balance
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
NZD/AUD 0.9358 0.9300 0.9500 0.9306 - 0.9396
AUD/NZD 1.0686 1.0493 1.0718 1.0643 - 1.0745

Friday 28th March 12:30PM (NZT) - Update
The correction lower in this pair continued unabated for much of this week. The driving force was strength in the Australian dollar as it outperformed all other currencies, at least up until yesterday afternoon. That’s when the New Zealand dollar took over the mantle of best performer and as a result the cross to the AUD has rebounded significantly. With the NZD downside target for this correction of 0.9330 (1.0718) now achieved, and the strong NZD bounce from yesterday’s low, it may well be that recent weakness has run its course. If that is the case then the pair could well recover back to above 0.9400 (below 1.0638) in the coming days. The 0.9300 (1.0753) level is now key. Any break though there would quickly sour the outlook and open the way for NZD losses toward 0.9180 (1.0893). Next week's key data comes from Australia in the form of building approvals, retail sales, the trade balance, and the RBA’s cash rate review and statement. From NZ we get nationwide building consent figures along with a reading on business confidence.
The current interbank midrate is:    NZDAUD 0.9362    AUDNZD 1.0681

The interbank range this week has been:    NZDAUD 0.9306 - 0.9444    AUDNZD 1.0589 - 1.0745
Tuesday 25th March 2:00PM (NZT)
The main driver of this pair since late last week has been the relative strength in the Australian dollar. The NZD is largely unchanged from a week ago, however the AUD has put in some decent gains. There gains have come in the face of further soft Chinese data that would normally weigh on the currency. But for now the AUD seems largely unfazed. This has seen the NZDAUD cross continually grind lower (AUDNZD higher) and it now looks likely to test key support around 0.9330 (resistance around 1.0718). A break below there could well run into stop loss sell orders and see 0.9300 (1.0753) trade quite quickly. From NZ this week we have only the trade balance set for release on Thursday, while from Australia we have the RBA financial stability report and a speech from Governor Stevens tomorrow.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
NZD/AUD 0.9353 0.9330 0.9530 0.9355 - 0.9479
AUD/NZD 1.0692 1.0493 1.0718 1.0550 - 1.0689

Friday 21st March 2:00PM (NZT) - Update
The past week has seen a relatively tight range for this pairing with mostly sideways action between 0.9420 and 0.9480 (1.0459 and 1.0616) containing trade. With a lack of fundamental data out of either country in the coming week, it’s hard to get excited about a break out from the current range. The key support level for the pair currently comes in around 0.9330 (resistance 1.0718) and I would expect to see a test of this at some stage in the coming weeks. If that level can contain the NZD downside, then the pair could turn back up and retest recent highs. Any break below 0.9330 (above 1.0718) however, will take a lot of shine off the NZD and likely trigger broader losses towards 0.9180 (1.0893).
The current interbank midrate is:    NZDAUD 0.9432    AUDNZD 1.0602

The interbank range this week has been:    NZDAUD 0.9416 - 0.9479    AUDNZD 1.0550 - 1.0620
Tuesday 18th March 3:30PM (NZT)
There hasn’t been a lot of direction for this pair over the past week. Gains were made in the lead up to, and immediately after, the RBNZ rate hike on Thursday morning, but these were completely undone in the wake of Australian employment data later that afternoon. Those strong employment numbers have combined with other recent data from Australia to suggest the economy may not get much worse from here. Should that prove to be the case there may not be a lot of topside action left in this pairing. For the time being it looks like the broad range of 0.9300 to 0.9500 (1.0753 to 1.0526) will dominate. NZ GDP data on Thursday will be the primary focus with little else set for release from either country.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
NZD/AUD 0.9425 0.9330 0.9530 0.9378 - 0.9486
AUD/NZD 1.0610 1.0493 1.0718 1.0542 - 1.0663

Thursday 13th March 5:00PM (NZT) - Update
Up until recently this week had seen largely one way price action for this pairing. The Australian dollar was under pressure for much of the week on the back of soft data, falling commodity prices, and concerns of Chinese corporate defaults. The New Zealand dollar on the other hand has been supported by the expectation, and subsequent announcement, of an RBNZ rate hike. These forces had driven the cross up to a high of 0.9486 (low of 1.0542). But in the last few hours we have seen Australian employment data that was much better than expected. This caused a material increase in demand for AUD’s and as a result the pairing has fallen sharply back towards 0.9440 (1.0593). Look for resistance around 0.9530 (support 1.0493) to provide a big barrier on the topside, with the risks now having swung in favour of a bigger correction lower for the pair.
The current interbank midrate is:    NZDAUD 0.9440    AUDNZD 1.0593

The interbank range this week has been:    NZDAUD 0.9293 - 0.9486    AUDNZD 1.0542 - 1.0761
Tuesday 11th March 3:00PM (NZT)
For much of the past week the Australian dollar outperformed the NZD on the back of better than expected data. Australian building approvals, retail sales, and trade balance all surprised on the strong side and this drove the cross down below 0.9300 late on Friday evening. We go a small bounce from there in the wake of US employment data as the as the New Zealand dollar held up better than the AUD in the aftermath of that release. But over the weekend some very poor Chinese export data weighed further on the AUD and this has seen the cross regain all of last week’s lost ground. We are now back up toward resistance around 0.9400. The immediate focus now turns to the RBNZ interest rate decision on Thursday morning, followed by Australian employment data later that afternoon. The pair remains very much contained by an increasingly familiar recent trading range.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
NZD/AUD 0.9386 0.9200 0.9400 0.9293 - 0.9396
AUD/NZD 1.0654 1.0638 1.0870 1.0643 - 1.0761

Thursday 6th March 8:30PM (NZT) - Update
The New Zealand dollar briefly traded over 0.9400 (under 1.0638) to the AUD in the very early stages of the week, but since then the downside has been the most vulnerable. With little released from NZ this week the driving force has come from better than expected Australian data. Earlier this afternoon retail sales and trade balance figures hit the wires and both results were significantly stronger than forecast. This saw the Australian dollar significantly outperform the NZD and as a result the cross is now back towards 0.9300 (1.0753). Next week will prove interesting with the RBNZ meeting, along with data from Australia in the form of business confidence, consumer sentiment, inflation expectations and employment change.
The current interbank midrate is:    NZDAUD 0.9342    AUDNZD 1.0704

The interbank range this week has been:    NZDAUD 0.9318 - 0.9406    AUDNZD 1.0632 - 1.0732
Tuesday 4th March 2:00PM (NZT)
This NZD surged higher in the later stages of last week as economic releases from New Zealand and Australia highlighted the divergent paths the economies are currently on. Poor data from Australia, in particular private capital expenditure, weighed heavily on the AUD, while the NZD benefited from a trifecta of positive releases. The cross rallied all the way to 0.9400 (1.0870) before running into NZD resistance that has so far capped further NZD strength. The initial focus now turns to the Reserve Bank of Australia rate statement out later this afternoon. I suspect the risks are skewed to the downside for the AUD from this event, and this would see further strength in the NZDAUD cross (AUDNZD softness). If the pair manages to break above 0.9400 (below 1.0870), then we could be in for a retest of cycle highs around 0.9528 (lows at 1.0495). Another failure at 0.9400 (1.0870) however, would likely see a move lower to support at 0.9310 (1.0741) initially. Later in the week from Australia we also have GDP, the trade balance, and retail sales data to digest.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
NZD/AUD 0.9370 0.9200 0.9400 0.9209 - 0.9406
AUD/NZD 1.0672 1.0638 1.0870 1.0632 - 1.0859

Friday 28th February 3:00PM (NZT) - Update
The New Zealand dollar traded a tight range to the AUD in the initial stages of this week. That all changed when data over the last couple of days highlighted the divergent nature of the two economies. Positive news from Fonterra combined with good trade balance and migration data to support the NZD. The opposite happened to the Australian dollar after poor readings on construction work done, and more importantly, private capital expenditure, weighed heavily. The result was a sharp move higher in the cross from 0.9220 to 0.9370 (1.0846 to 1.0672) so far.  It remains to be seen if this move has enough momentum to test recent highs above 0.9500, but the pace of the move over the past 48 hours suggests it’s a real probability. Data from Australia next week will likely be the deciding factor for further near term gains with building approvals, the RBA rate meeting, GDP, retail sales, and the trade balance all set for release.
The current interbank midrate is:    NZDAUD 0.9360    AUDNZD 1.0684

The interbank range this week has been:    NZDAUD 0.9209 - 0.9370    AUDNZD 1.0672 - 1.0859
Tuesday 25th February 3:00PM (NZT)
With no data of significance release from either country over the past week, there has been little to drive this pair.  As such a tight range around 0.9230 (1.0834) has developed over the past few days. Looking at the bigger picture, there is good support below 0.9200 (resistance above 1.0870) and dips under there should continue to find buyers. This would suggest an eventual move up towards 0.9300 (down to 1.0753), or even 0.9400 (1.0638), is the likeliest scenario when the pair does decide to find some direction. From New Zealand this week we get inflation expectations, the trade balance, and business confidence data. While from Australia we have construction work done, private capital expenditure and private sector credit figures set for release.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
NZD/AUD 0.9230 0.9200 0.9400 0.9181 - 0.9267
AUD/NZD 1.0834 1.0638 1.0870 1.0791 - 1.0892

Friday 21st February 1:30PM (NZT) - Update
There has been little to get excited about in this pair recently with much of the price action so far in February having been broadly contained between 0.9200 and 0.9300 (1.0870 and 1.0753). We have seen a couple of dips below 0.9200 (above 1.0870) this week but they have been short lived and there are plenty of willing buyers of New Zealand dollars, sellers of Australian dollars, on any such weakness. This lack of direction in the pair only serves to reinforce the view that it should remain largely range bound between 0.9200 and 0.9400 (1.0870 and 1.0638) in the lead up to next months expected RBNZ rate hike.
The current interbank midrate is:    NZDAUD 0.9215    AUDNZD 1.0852

The interbank range this week has been:   NZDAUD 0.9181 - 0.9267   AUDNZD 1.0791 - 1.0892
Tuesday 18th February 3:00PM (NZT)
The New Zealand dollar seems content at the moment to trade in a broad range between 0.9200 and 0.9400 (1.0870 and 1.0638) to the AUD. The only real volatility over the past week has come on the back of Australian data. Solid business confidence figures from Australia saw the lower end of that range tested, but the cross shot higher after Australian employment disappointed late last week. Since then the pair has drifted back towards 0.9250 (1.0811) in what can only be described as subdued trading. Weaker than expected retail sales data from NZ yesterday caused a small dip lower, but the impact has been limited. It’s hard to get excited about any real overall direction for the pair with more of the same range traded expected in the near term.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
NZD/AUD 0.9220 0.9200 0.9400 0.9197 - 0.9312
AUD/NZD 1.0846 1.0638 1.0870 1.0739 - 1.0873

Friday 14th February 1:30PM (NZT) - Update
Price action in this pair over the past week has been driven by two pieces of Australian data. The Australian dollar received a boost on Tuesday after solid result for  business confidence and this saw the cross to the NZD trade down towards 0.9200 (up towards 1.0870). The NZD bounced around that level until yesterday’s soft Australian employment numbers saw the AUD give back all those gains and then some. The AUD lost around one cent to the NZD in the wake of that data, and the NZD has remained elevated since then. This only serves to reinforce our current view that the cross is likely to remain broadly range bound between 0.9200 and 0.9500 (1.0870 and 1.0526) over the coming months.
The current interbank midrate is:    NZDAUD 0.9280    AUDNZD 1.0776

The interbank range this week has been:    NZDAUD 0.9197 - 0.9312  AUDNZD 1.0739 - 1.0873
Tuesday 11th February 3:00PM (NZT)
It has been a relatively quiet week for this pair with much of the trading contained between 0.9170 and 0.9270 (1.0905 and 1.0787). We did get a spike down to 0.9137 (up to 1.0945) in the wake of the RBA’s very neutral rate statement last Tuesday, which caused a noticeable increase in demand for Australian dollars. But the dip was short lived as the New Zealand dollar also saw strength after NZ employment data come in above expectation. Since then the pair has largely been range bound. The key driver on the week could well be Australian employment data set for release on Thursday. Expectations are for a gain in employment of 15.3k. I expect support at 0.9160 (1.0917) to contain any potential weakness ahead of that data.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
NZD/AUD 0.9225 0.9160 0.9360 0.9137 - 0.9273
AUD/NZD 1.0840 1.0684 1.0917 1.0784 - 1.0945

Friday 7th February 3:30PM (NZT) - Update
An unusually positive week for the Australian dollar has kept the NZD under pressure for much of the past five days. This comes despite good employment data from New Zealand which helped to support the local currency. The lows for the pair traded in the wake of the RBA policy statement, which boosted the AUD to a substantial degree. Support around 0.9160 (resistance around 1.0917) briefly gave way as the pair touched a 0.9137 low (1.0945 high), but it was quickly recovered and has contained the downside since then. I still favour that NZD support level containing any near term weakness and suspect the pair will eventually look to recover back towards 0.9300 (down to 1.0753). It would be a big call to say a long term top has now been put in place just above 0.9500 (long term low 1.0526), but that could well be the case if Australian data continues to surprise positively.
The current interbank midrate is:    NZDAUD 0.9203    AUDNZD 1.0866

The interbank range this week has been:    NZDAUD 0.9137 - 0.9280    AUDNZD 1.0776 - 1.0945
Tuesday 4th February 3:00PM (NZT)
Last week’s decision by the RBNZ to hold off hiking rates until (most likely) March, caused a decent correction lower for this pair. That has been the main driver since last Thursday and for the time being support around 0.9200 (resistance around 1.0870) has contained the downside. Whether that remains the case will largely now depend on the Australian central bank when they release their rate statement later this afternoon. How they interpret the recent strong inflation data could well decide near term direction for the Australian dollar. Any move below 0.9200 (above 1.0870) will bring the more important 0.9160 (1.0917) support level into play. This level should prove a lot tougher to break in the near term. Tomorrows NZ employment data will also provide focus for the pair ahead of Australian retail sales and trade balance later in the week.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
NZD/AUD 0.9225 0.9200 0.9400 0.9197 - 0.9460
AUD/NZD 1.0840 1.0638 1.0870 1.0571 - 1.0873

Friday 31st January 4:00PM (NZT) - Update
This pair was broken from its slumber following yesterdays RBNZ unchanged monetary policy decision. Until then the weeks price action had been contained by the .9386/9475 (1.0554/1.0654) range. Expectations for a hike from Governor Wheeler had increased in the last week, and the NZD had held its ground as other risk assets slumped amid emerging market fears. Once the unchanged decision was released, the  pressure came on the NZD and in the offshore session stop loss NZD selling accentuated the move. The Australasian time-zone has seen the NZD recover from its lows. Direction from current levels will be driven by the build up to Tuesdays RBA monetary policy announcement, assuming the stop loss selling of the NZD has not been cleared. Current levels offer a good opportunity for those looking to sell AUD and buy NZD, assuming the RBNZ hike the cash rate in six weeks time.

The current interbank midrate is:    NZDAUD 0.9275    AUDNZD 1.0782

The interbank range this week has been:    NZDAUD 0.9264 - 0.9475  AUDNZD 1.0554 - 1.0794
Tuesday 28th January 4:30PM (NZT)
This pair was driven to fresh cycle highs late last week as the Australian dollar struggled in the wake of poor Chinese data and emerging market concerns. Although the latter also weighed on the New Zealand dollar to a degree, the risk of a rate hike by the RBNZ this week helped it to outperform its neighbour.  The break above 0.9500 (below 1.0526) was however short lived and since then we have seen a pullback toward the 0.9400 (1.063) area. Having made solid gains in the first few weeks of this year I still feel the pair is likely to consolidate between 0.9300 and 0.9500 (1.0753 and 1.0526) for some time yet. The RBNZ rate statement on Thursday will be the primary focus this week and it will be a close call whether the central bank hikes or not. Governor Wheeler is also giving an on the record speech on Friday which will be closely followed by the market. While from Australia later in the week we also get readings on new home sales and producer prices.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
NZD/AUD 0.9414 0.9300 0.9500 0.9370 - 0.9529
AUD/NZD 1.0622 1.0526 1.0753 1.0494 - 1.0672

Friday 24th January 2:00PM (NZT) - Update
It has been a choppy week for the NZD-AUD cross. The NZD jumped higher on the back of NZ inflation on Tuesday, and then gave back all the gains when Australia released their inflation data on Wednesday. That Australian data was much stronger than expected but the impact ended up being short lived. The negative influences of soft Chinese manufacturing data and emerging market concerns have weight on the AUD to much greater extent than the New Zealand dollar, and as a result the NZDAUD rallied up to make fresh cycle highs. The psychological level of 0.9500 (1.0526) has continued to cap further NZD gains so far although it is coming under increasing pressure. The focus for next week will be the RBNZ rate statement and potential for a hike. From Australia we get business confidence, new home sales, and producer prices data to digest.
The current interbank midrate is:    NZDAUD 0.9450    AUDNZD 1.0582

The interbank range this week has been:    NZDAUD 0.9341 - 0.9493  AUDNZD 1.0534 - 1.0705
Tuesday 21st January 3:00PM (NZT)
The New Zealand dollar has had a strong run against the Australian dollar in the first few weeks of this year. The high of 0.9481 (low of 1.0547) was touched last week in the wake of some poor Australian employment figures and although we have seen a corrective pullback since then, the risks are still skewed to the NZD topside. In the last few hours the NZD has jumped up again thanks to stronger than expected NZ inflation data. Support on the downside comes in around 0.9300 (resistance at 1.0753), while the topside will continue to run into resistance toward 0.9500 (support towards 1.0526). The only other data from NZ this week is the manufacturing index, while from Australia we get consumer sentiment and inflation data tomorrow, followed by inflation expectations on Thursday.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
NZD/AUD 0.9450 0.9300 0.9500 0.9207 - 0.9181
AUD/NZD 1.0582 1.0526 1.0753 1.0547 - 1.0861

Friday 17th January 2:00PM (NZT) - Update
The New Zealand dollar has been a stand out performer this week and nowhere is that more visible than against the Australian dollar. The pair broke above resistance at 0.9300 (below support at 1.0753) on Tuesday evening and never looked back. NZ business confidence at a 20 year high certainly helped the currency, but the real gains for this pair came in the wake of Australia’s very poor employment numbers yesterday. The AUD got smashed after the result which drove the cross from 0.9360 (1.0684) up to a high last night of 0.9481 (down to 1.0547). Having rallied nearly three cents against the AUD this week, I would suspect the psychological level of 0.9500 (1.0525) should cap further NZD appreciation in the near term. However the NZ dollar does have momentum and picking extremes is a tough game. There is now good support around the 0.9300 (resistance around 1.0753) level and this should limit any potential pullback over the coming week. Next week from NZ we get inflation data and the manufacturing index. While from Australian we also have inflation, along with consumer confidence data to draw focus.
The current interbank midrate is:    NZDAUD 0.9467    AUDNZD 1.0563

The interbank range this week has been:    NZDAUD 0.9207 - 0.9481  AUDNZD 1.0547 - 1.0861
Tuesday 14th January 3:30PM (NZT)
After getting rejected from resistance around 0.9300 (support around 1.0753) last week, this NZD proceeded to drift lower with little in the way of fundamental news to drive it. The downside accelerated on Friday evening in the wake of the US employment report. That surprise result saw gains in the Australian dollar outpace those of the New Zealand dollar, and the pair traded down to 0.9207 (up to 1.0861) as a result. In fact, it would be fair to say that recent NZDAUD (AUDNZD) action has been driven to a large extent by broader market flows into the respective currencies, and there has been little direct interest in the pair at current levels. It seems likely we will continue to trade between 0.9100 and 0.9300 (1.0989 and 1.0753) in the near term. Australian employment data on Thursday provides key focus data wise this week.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
NZD/AUD 0.9264 0.9100 0.9300 0.9207 - 0.9313
AUD/NZD 1.0794 1.0753 1.0989 1.0738 - 1.0861

Friday 10th January 3:00PM (NZT) - Update
There has been little fundamental news to drive this pair over the course of the week. The cross continues to trade comfortably between 0.9100 and 0.9300 (1.0753 - 1.0989). For much of the week we have seen an upside bias as the Australian dollar underperformed against the NZD. Both currencies squeezed higher against the USD late last Friday and while the AUD has slowly retraced most of its move, the NZD has managed to hold onto the majority of its gains. This has been the driver of the NZD drifting higher over the last five days. The pair had a brief test above 0.9300 (below 1.0753) but those levels could not be sustained and it has since pulled back to the more comfortable level of 0.9260 (1.0799). We may well see move toward 0.9400 or 0.9500 (1.0526 or 1.0638) over the coming months, but that is unlikely to happen in the near term and for now we can expect more ranging between the previously mentioned parameters. From NZ next week we have the NZIER business confidence survey and the house price index set for release. While from Australia we get consumer sentiment figures on Wednesday and unemployment data on Thursday which will be closely watched.
The current interbank midrate is:    NZDAUD 0.9266    AUDNZD 1.0792

The interbank range this week has been:  NZDAUD 0.9208 - 0.9313    AUDNZD 1.0738 - 1.0860
Tuesday 7th January 2:30PM (NZT)
There has been very little action in this cross over the holiday period. With no key data released from either country the pair has drifted around on the back of wider market flows in and out of each currency. The cross seems very comfortable trading between 0.9100 and 0.9300 (1.0753 and 1.0989) for the time being and these level provide the key support and resistance zones. We do get some data from Australia this week that will draw the market attention in the form of building approvals and retail sales, both released on Thursday. There is little schedule for release from NZ.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
NZD/AUD 0.9250 0.9100 0.9300 0.9171 - 0.9262
AUD/NZD 1.0811 1.0753 1.0989 1.0797 - 1.0904

Friday 20th December 1:30PM (NZT) - Update
The early part of this week saw the New Zealand dollar continue to outperform the Australian dollar as the pair traded up towards 0.9300 (down to 1.0753). But having gained close to 200 points in a little more than a week, the market felt a little over stretched. The cross then drifted back toward 0.9250 (rallied up to 1.0811) heading into the Fed tapering announcement. That caused some volatile trade, and when we then got the very strong NZD GDP number the pair spiked back up over 0.9300 (below 1.0753). But again the pair couldn’t sustain those lofty NZD levels and it has since drifted back below 0.9250 (up to 1.0811). The market is now pricing in the risk of a tightening by the RBNZ as early as January and this will help to support the NZD. However the market will need to consolidate around current levels for some time before it can attempt another crack at the NZD highs. We could easily see a pullback to support around 0.9200 (1.0870) in the meantime.
The current interbank midrate is:    NZDAUD 0.9242    AUDNZD 1.0820

The interbank range this week has been:    NZDAUD 0.9213 - 0.9315  AUDNZD 1.0735 - 1.0854
Tuesday 17th December 2:00PM (NZT)
This pair made solid gains last week helped by the RBA governor ‘talking’ the Australian dollar down. The AUD lost ground across the board on the back of his statement, and cause the cross to the New Zealand dollar to break above 0.9200 (below 1.0870). Since then the pair has managed to hold above that level although further gains have been limited. The wider trend is certainly up and this leaves the NZD topside still in focus. However, with Thursday’s Fed decision likely to spark plenty of volatility across all markets, anything is possible in the wake of that decision. Key support comes in at 0.9000 (resistance 1.1111) and then again at 0.8920 (1.1211). As long as the pair holds above either of those two levels any pullback will be viewed as a healthy correction before the NZD outperformance resumes.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
NZD/AUD 0.9260 0.9100 0.9300 0.9052 - 0.9260
AUD/NZD 1.0799 1.0753 1.0989 1.0799 - 1.1047

Friday 13th December 2:30PM (NZT) - Update
There was little interest in this cross in the early part of the week, but that all changed yesterday. The New Zealand dollar saw increased demand after the RBNZ monetary policy statement as the central bank has revised up slightly its projected path for interest rates. The RBNZ also seemed largely unconcerned about the value of the NZD. This stronger NZD has combined with a weaker AUD after comments from RBA Governor Stevens when he suggested 0.8500 was more realistic than 0.9500 for the Australian currency vs the USD. As a result the cross shot up to a high 0.9243 (1.0819). We have seen a small correction since then with the pair currently trading around 0.9200 (1.0870). Gains over the last 30 hours have been dramatic, and it seems likely the pair will struggle to make further gains in the very near term. A pull back to initial support around 0.9130 (1.0953) could easily eventuate, before the upside it tested again. From NZ next week we have consumer sentiment, the current account, business confidence, and GDP data. While from Australia there is not much out in the way of data, with the highlight being minutes from the last RBA meeting on Tuesday.
The current interbank midrate is:    NZDAUD 0.9213    AUDNZD 1.0854

The interbank range this week has been:    NZDAUD 0.9052 - 0.9243  AUDNZD 1.0819 - 1.1047
Tuesday 10th December 2:00PM (NZT)
The NZ dollar has remained in demand against the Australian dollar over the last week. The mixed Australian economic data was no match for the best Terms of Trade numbers in NZ since 1973. Subsequently the NZ dollar has continued to climb and set new cycle highs against the AUD at .9132 (lows 1.0950).  The real focus in the near term will come from the RBNZ monetary policy statement in Thursday, and this is quickly followed by the latest Australian employment numbers. With the market currently expected a March hike to the NZ cash rate, any indications away from that date will garner a reaction. Today’s move by the RBNZ to exempt new housing from their LVR restrictions on lending should mean less upward pressure on the cash rate overtime, and therefore less upward pressure on the NZD. Whilst further gains from the NZ dollar over the AUD cannot be ruled out, further gains from the current levels should prove harder fought. Australia remains the number one export market for NZ, and the current levels will be choking Australian demand. At some stage the impact will be felt in NZ.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
NZD/AUD 0.9105 0.8920 0.9120 0.8937 - 0.9132
AUD/NZD 1.0983 1.9065 1.1211 1.0950 - 1.1190

Friday 6th December 3:00PM (NZT) - Update
For much of this week the New Zealand dollar continued to appreciate against the AUD, and we have see little in the way of pullbacks. Data from NZ remains very supportive and the same cannot be said for Australia. The cross rate made fresh cycle highs and came close to testing 0.9100 (1.0989). We have seen a pause in gains over the last 48 hours and a small retracement, that has had more to do with profit taking than any real change in direction or outlook. It seems likely the pair will again have a crack at 0.9100 (1.0989) and looking further out a test of 0.9200 (1.0870) could well be on the cards. Although we are approaching what are historically very high levels, there seems little in the near term to turn the pair around. The risks are all still skewed to the topside, however gains are likely to come at a much slower rate going forward. The focus next week will be on the RBNZ’s monetary policy statement and any signal to the likely timing of the impending rate hike. From Australia we have business confidence, consumer sentiment, and employment change to digest.
The current interbank midrate is:    NZDAUD 0.9070    AUDNZD 1.1025

The interbank range this week has been:    NZDAUD 0.8915 - 0.9094    AUDNZD 1.0996 - 1.1217
Tuesday 3rd December 2:30PM (NZT)
Recent price action in this pair has been very NZD positive and supports the view for further NZD gains. Late last week the NZD pulled back from recent highs and tested support around 0.8920 (resistance around 1.1211). Over the previous couple of months this level had provided strong NZD resistance (AUD support), but once the pair broke above there a couple of weeks ago the level then reverted to strong support. This support held well heading into the weekend, and since then we have seen a NZD bounce that has taken the pair to fresh cycle highs (AUDNZD cycle lows). This is very positive price action and was helped by very good terms of trade data out of NZ yesterday, along with some soft Australian manufacturing figures. There is very little out of NZ this week to influence the pair, however from Australia there will be plenty to digest. Retail sales, the RBA rate statement, and GDP could all impact and will be closely watched. The risks at this point however, continue to be skewed to further NZ dollar outperformance.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
NZD/AUD 0.8996 0.8920 0.9120 0.8909 - 0.9001
AUD/NZD 1.1116 1.0965 1.1211 1.1101 - 1.1225

Friday 29th November 3:30PM (NZT)
The New Zealand dollar spent the first part of this week testing up toward the psychological level of 0.9000 (1.1111) against the Australian dollar. Data from both countries has surprised on the strong side and this left the NZD lacking any real momentum to push on higher. The failure to break through 0.9000 (1.1111) has seen a corrective NZD pullback ensue over the last couple of days. This pullback has taken the cross all the way back to the key 0.8920 (back up to 1.1211) level which is now acting as NZD support. I would expect the pair to hold above this level and eventually drift higher again. There is little in the way of data from NZ next week to drive the pair, but from Australia there is plenty with building approvals, retail sales, the RBA rate statement, GDP, and the trade balance, all scheduled to hit the wires.
The current interbank midrate is:    NZDAUD 0.8930    AUDNZD 1.1198

The interbank range this week has been:    NZDAUD 0.8914 - 0.8994  AUDNZD 1.1119 - 1.1218
Tuesday 26th November 4:30PM (NZT)
Last week was an interesting one for this pair as key topside resistance at 0.8920 (support at 1.1211) finally gave way. The driver for the move was weakness in the Australian dollar with a number of factors combining to see the AUD one of the worst performers on the week. With that key resistance level now out of the way the pair is now targeting the psychological level of 0.9000 (support 1.1111). We have come close to there in the last 24 hours and can expect further attempts toward there in the coming days. This level should however prove tough to overcome in the very near term. This week from NZ we have trade balance data, business confidence, and building consents to draw focus. While from Australia we only have private capital expenditure figures on Thursday.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
NZD/AUD 0.8960 0.8800 0.9000 0.8842 - 0.8990
AUD/NZD 1.1161 1.1111 1.1364 1.1123 - 1.1309

Friday 22nd November 2:30PM (NZT)
It has been an interesting week for this pair. The AUD has seen periods of reasonably intense pressure, and this has seen the  pair again push close to record levels in the NZ dollars favour. However, as with previous investigations, the highly elevated levels do not last long. At current levels the pair remains comfortably with the recent ranges. The weak AUD could see the NZ dollar again push towards the highs, but do not expect a dramatic extension into a new trading range in the short term. Next week is devoid of top tier economic data in either economy, with the Australian private capital expenditure numbers on Thursday offering primary focus.
The current interbank midrate is:    NZDAUD .8882    AUDNZD 1.1259

The interbank range this week has been:    NZDAUD .8842 - .8914    AUDNZD 1.1218 - 1.1309
Tuesday 19th November 2:30PM (NZT)
Last week saw this pair break above minor resistance at 0.8840 (support at 1.1312) which opened the way for a test of recent highs around 0.8920 (lows near 1.1211). This relative strength came even as retail sales data from NZ surprised to the downside on Thursday. The market seemed to shrug that off and has tested key resistance around 0.8920 (1.1211) on a couple of occasions in the past 48 hours. That level however provides a strong barrier on the topside and will be hard to overcome. The likely scenario will be another failure above 0.8900 (1.1236) which results in a pull back to 0.8840 (1.1312) initially. In the last hour we have seen the release of minutes from the last RBA meeting although these have had little impact. Focus for the rest of the week will come from NZ producer prices prices tomorrow and a speech from RBA governor Stevens on Thursday.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
NZD/AUD 0.8883 0.8740 0.8920 0.8797 - 0.8918
AUD/NZD 1.1257 1.1211 1.1442 1.1213 - 1.1368

Friday 15th November 2:00PM (NZT) - Update
After struggling the previous week to overcome minor resistance at 0.8840 (1.1312), the NZD finally found the legs on Wednesday and it hasn’t looked back since. The pair looks like it wants to test recent highs above 0.8900 (lows 1.1236) and came very close to doing that yesterday during some volatile price action. I can’t however get excited about the pair breaking above 0.8920 (below 1.1211) which should provide strong NZD resistance. I therefore feel current levels provide an excellent NZD selling opportunity with the risk being the pair peaks in the near term and then pulls back to 0.8840 (1.1312). There is little out next week from either country with the only release that has the potential to impact being the RBA minutes.
The current interbank midrate is:    NZDAUD 0.8874    AUDNZD 1.1269

The interbank range this week has been:    NZDAUD 0.8797 - 0.8893    AUDNZD 1.1245 - 1.1368
Tuesday 12th November 2:30PM (NZT)
Last week’s better than expected NZ employment data combined with the much poorer Australian result to see this pair rally up towards 0.8840 (down towards 1.1312). That level however has so far capped the NZD topside on a number of occasions in the last few days. Dips have been limited to around 0.8785 ( rallies to 1.1383), and it will take a break of either of those two levels to give a clearer picture on near term direction. Any break above 0.8840 (below 1.1312) will likely see a test of recent highs around 0.8916 (lows around 1.1216). Selling into that strength would be recommended as that level provides strong resistance and should continue to limit topside gains in the medium term. A break below 0.8785 (above 1.1383) would likely encourage further weakness toward 0.8700 (1.1494) initially. From NZ this week we have the RBNZ financial stability report on Wednesday and retails sales on Thursday. While from Australia there is consumer sentiment, wage price index, and inflation expectations to draw focus.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
NZD/AUD 0.8820 0.8640 0.8840 0.8701 - 0.8839
AUD/NZD 1.1338 1.1312 1.1574 1.1303 - 1.1493

Friday 8th November 2:00PM (NZT) - Update
This pairing remains well contained within its increasing familiar broader .8650- .8850 (1.1300 - 1.1560) range. Whilst the NZ dollar has seen increased demand for the most part, the inability to consolidate through the 0.8840 (1.1312) has seen the pair move back to territory that can be considered fair value in the current environment. The mixed news in Australia, and better NZ employment stats have provided the NZD upside bias for the week. Looking forward there appears to be little that will budge the pairing from its familiar recent range. The quarterly RBA Monetary Policy Statement later on today provides the final focus for the week. Looking to next week sees a relatively light economic calendar which will likely further enhance the contained nature of the price action for this pair. Loading of orders at targeted level will benefit those looking to exchange towards the wider levels of the recent trading band.
The current interbank midrate is:    NZDAUD 0.8800    AUDNZD 1.1364

The interbank range this week has been:    NZDAUD 0.8700 - 0.8847  AUDNZD 1.1303 - 1.1493
Tuesday 5th November 1:30PM (NZT)
The NZD recovered off lows against the AUD around 0.8640 (1.1574) in the early stages of last week and since then has maintained a small upside bias. This has seen the pair test the key 0.8740 (1.1442) level which is where the cross broke through during the previous week. It would take a sustained move above this level (now good NZD resistance) to bring the topside back into focus. The pair did have an attempt up through this level in the dying hours of last week amid very thin liquidity, but it seems that move was more about triggering orders stop loss orders above 0.8740 (down through 1.1442) than a genuine NZD break higher (AUD lower). As a result the cross drifted back in the early stages of Monday and currently trades around the more comfortable 0.8710 (1.1481) area. Key influences this week will be the RBA statement today and then employment data from both countries later in the week. The RBA a likely to suggest the Australian dollar is overvalued and this could see it depreciate against the NZD somewhat. Whether it falls far enough to push the cross to the NZD back above 0.8740 (1.1442) remains to be seen.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
NZD/AUD 0.8718 0.8600 0.8800 0.8649 - 0.8757
AUD/NZD 1.1471 1.1364 1.1628 1.1419 - 1.1562

Friday 1st November 3:00PM (NZT) - Update
The NZD bottomed on this pairing in the early part of the week at 0.8637 (high 1.1578) and since then has been staging a small recovery. That recovery took it up to resistance around 0.8740 (support 1.1440) last night, but so far that has capped the topside. 0.8740 (1.1440) is the key level the pair broke down through the previous week, so reaction here will be important. A failure recover the level will likely see the NZD downside tested again. But a move back above 0.8740 (below 1.1440) would be a NZD positive signal and should lead to further NZD gains. There has been no key factor to dive the pair this week. The RBNZ’s concerns over the housing market helped to support the NZD after their monetary policy statement, but then surprisingly strong Australian building consents data yesterday pushed the NZD lower again as demand for the AUD increased. Next week could be a big one for Australia with the RBA rate statement, trade balance, and employment data to draw focus. From New Zealand however the calendar is pretty light with only employment data on Tuesday to focus on.
The current interbank midrate is:    NZDAUD 0.8725    AUDNZD 1.1461

The interbank range this week has been:    NZDAUD 0.8637 - 0.8743  AUDNZD 1.1388 - 1.1438
Tuesday 29th October 3:00PM (NZT)
Last week’s Australian inflation data was the catalyst for this pair to break down below key support at 0.8740(above resistance at 1.1440). The NZ dollar losses continued into the weekend with the cross closing the week around 0.8640 (1.1575). We saw a small NZD recovery yesterday, but the pair has leapt higher in the last few hours on the back of AUD weakness after a speech by RBA Governor Stevens. His efforts to talk the AUD down are certainly having an impact and it will be interesting to see how much further the cross will rally as a result. We could easily retest the key 0.8740 (1.1440) level, and reaction here will be important. Later this week from Australia we get building approvals and new home sales, and then on Friday we have producer prices data. But the key event for the pair this week could well be the RBNZ rate review and statement on Thursday. Risks are skewed to the NZD upside if the central bank signals increased concerns over the housing market.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
NZD/AUD 0.8685 0.8600 0.8800 0.8637 - 0.8781
AUD/NZD 1.1514 1.1364 1.1628 1.1388 - 1.1578

Friday 25th October 1:30PM (NZT) - Update
The key factor for this pair this week was Australian inflation data that hit the wires on Wednesday. That data was stronger than expected and give the Australian dollar a sharp boost. This increase in demand for the AUD was enough to push the cross to the New Zealand dollar down through key support at 0.8740 (resistance 1.1442), a level that had held the down side on a number of attempts over the previous two weeks. With the NZD support level out of the way the market quickly traded to 0.8700 (1.1494) before attempting a recovery. But with 0.8740 (support 1.1442) now acting as good topside NZD resistance, it capped the NZD bounce and the market turn back down again. The risk are now all skewed to the NZD downside with the target being a test of support around  0.8600 (resistance 1.1628). Next week’s highlight will be the RBNZ monetary policy statement, which is followed by building consents and business confidence. From Australia we have new home sales, building approvals, private sector credit, and producer prices.
The current interbank midrate is:    NZDAUD 0.8660    AUDNZD 1.1547

The interbank range this week has been:    NZDAUD 0.8660 - 0.8799    AUDNZD 1.1365 - 1.1547
Tuesday 22nd October 2:20PM (NZT)
This pair has remained trapped within the recent 0.8740 - 0.8920 (1.1211 - 1.1442) range although it is currently testing support at the lower NZD end of those parameters. Some relative strength in the New Zealand dollar last week after stronger inflation data saw the pair up to 0.8840 (down to 1.1312), but gains could not be sustained and as a result we have now drifted down to key NZD support. There has been little fundamental news to drive the pair since mid-last week, and we await Australian inflation data tomorrow and NZ trade balance the day after to possible provide a lead. Tonight’s US employment numbers could well add some volatility. Any sustained break below 0.8740 (above 1.1442) will likely see a much deeper correction eventuate that should test 0.8600 (1.1628) at a minimum.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
NZD/AUD 0.8757 0.8740 0.8925 0.8738 - 0.8842
AUD/NZD 1.1419 1.1204 1.1442 1.1310 - 1.1444

Friday 18th October 2:00PM (NZT) - Update
After bouncing off support at 0.8740 (resistance at 1.1442) last week this pair recovered to around 0.8840 (1.1312) before running into resistance. Trading then drifted lower until NZ inflation data lifted the New Zealand dollar and the cross moved back up to 0.8840 (down to 1.1312). But again that level capped the topside and in the last few hours the pair has retreated to now trade back down below 0.8800 (above 1.1364). A lot of the focus this week has been on the political situation in the US and action in the cross has been dictated by relative flows into each individual currency. But the repeated failure to overcome 0.8840 (1.1312) now puts the downside back in play. We could well have a more concerted crack at support around 0.8740 (resistance 1.1442). Should that break, it could signal the start of a much deeper correction. From NZ next week we have only credit card spending and trade balance data, while from Australia we get inflation data and the RBA annual report.
The current interbank midrate is:    NZDAUD 0.8790    AUDNZD 1.1377

The interbank range this week has been:   NZDAUD 0.8780 - 0.8848   AUDNZD 1.1390 - 1.1439
Tuesday 15th October 2:20PM (NZT)
With little in the way of fundamental news from either country to drive this pair recently, the price action has been contained with key support and resistance levels. On the down side that level is 0.8740 (upside resistance 1.1442) and it was tested last week. The failure to break this level has seen a NZD bounce and the pair has traded back up as high as 0.8848 ( low 1.1302). Price action in the last few hours though has seen further NZD pressure just below the 0.8800 level (above 1.1364). On the topside key resistance comes in around 0.8920 ( support 1.1211), where the pair has had three failed break attempts. Until either of those levels are broken we can expect further range trading. Later this week from Australia we get business confidence data, and a speech from RBA Governor Stevens to focus on. While from NZ we just have inflation data out tomorrow.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
NZD/AUD 0.8793 0.8740 0.8920 0.8742 - 0.8848
AUD/NZD 1.1373 1.1211 1.1442 1.1302 - 1.1439

Friday 11th October 12:00PM (NZT) - Update
The NZD has maintained a small downside bias against the AUD this week. Repeated failures above 0.8900 (below 1.1235) over previous weeks have taken their toll and the NZD has been heavy for the last few days. Last night the cross traded down to test initial support at 0.8740 (resistance 1.1440). So far that level has held but the NZD bounce has been less than convincing. This latest bout of NZD under performance comes even after the market was disappointed with Australian employment data which put the AUD under pressure yesterday. A sustained break of support at 0.8740 (1.1440) would be the first signal that a major ‘triple top’ has been formed above 0.8900 (triple bottom 1.1235) and this would encourage further NZD selling. Next week from Australia we get the minutes from the latest RBA along with data on home loans and motor vehicle sales. From New Zealand we have inflation data on Wednesday to draw focus.
The current interbank midrate is:    NZDAUD 0.8757    AUDNZD 1.1419

The interbank range this week has been:    NZDAUD 0.8742 - 0.8827    AUDNZD 1.1329 - 1.1439
Tuesday 8th October 2:15PM (NZT)
This pair has been relatively quiet since big swings on Tuesday and Wednesday last week. Those swings were driven firstly by the RBA statement, then by comments from RBNZ Governor Wheeler, but since then the pair has settled into trading comfortable around 0.8800 (1.1364). Business confidence data from New Zealand this morning had little impact, as should the manufacturing index on Thursday. Data from Australia this week could well influence the cross however with consumer sentiment and the more important employment numbers set for release on Wednesday and Thursday respectively. The topside is protected by now strong resistance towards 0.8925 (support 1.1205) and any move toward there will run into plenty of selling. Key downside support comes in at 0.8740 (resistance 1.1442) and these two levels look set to contain trade in the near term.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
NZD/AUD 0.8788 0.8625 0.8925 0.8759 - 0.8916
AUD/NZD 1.1379 1.1204 1.1594 1.1216 - 1.1417

Friday 4th October 2:00PM (NZT) - Update
It has been a very interesting week for this pair. After trading up to recent highs in the early stages of the week, thanks to strong NZ business confidence numbers, the cross collapsed as the Australian dollar gained support from the very neutral RBA statement. It traded down to 0.8759 (up to 1.1417) before starting to recover at touch. The New Zealand dollar then got a boost from RBNZ Governor Wheeler’s comments with regard to the potential need for sharp interest rate hikes to cool the property market. The cross traded up to 0.8880 (down to 1.1261) on the back of these comments but ran out of steam there. We have now seen three sharp rejections from above 0.8900 (below 1.1236) in the last month or so and this leaves the pair looking a little vulnerable. As a result there will be plenty of willing sellers on any move above 0.8850 (1.1299) and this will make further upside action very tough. It seems likely we could get a serious test of downside support at some point soon. The 0.8740 level (1.1442) marks the first level of support and should this give way, a much deeper correction could develop. From Australia next week we have consumer sentiment, business confidence and employment data to digest. While from NZ we have business confidence and the manufacturing index to focus on.
The current interbank midrate is:    NZDAUD 0.8806    AUDNZD 1.1356

The interbank range this week has been:    NZDAUD 0.8759 - 0.8916  AUDNZD 1.1216 - 1.1417
Tuesday 1st October 2:15PM (NZT)
After coming under pressure in the early part of last week this pairing bounced from the 0.8770 (sold off from 1.1403) level, and since then we have seen a recovery all the way back up to recent NZD highs. Last night 0.8916 (1.1216) traded which is exactly the same level as the NZ dollar peaked at on the 21st of September, and only a few points shy of the 0.8922 peak (1.1208 bottom) from 31st July. So there is big resistance around the 0.8920 (support around 1.1211) level, which has so far capped the New Zealand dollar. Expect that to continue ahead of the RBA policy statement later this afternoon. That will likely be the deciding factor for near term direction of the cross. Any break above 0.8920 (below 1.1211) will open the way for further NZD gains with an initial target of the psychologically important 0.9000 (1.1111) level. Another rejection from 0.8920 (1.1211) will see a deeper NZD pullback targeting support at 0.8740 (resistance 1.1442) to start with.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
NZD/AUD 0.8900 0.8740 0.8920 0.8773 - 0.8916
AUD/NZD 1.1236 1.1211 1.1442 1.1216 - 1.1399

Friday 27th September 2:00PM (NZT) - Update
It has been an interesting week for this pair after closing last week near cycle highs around 0.8916. From the open on Monday however, the NZD drifted lower and this encouraged speculative selling as it looked like another medium term top had formed above 0.8900 (bottom 1.1235). Solid Chinese manufacturing data also helped give strength to the Australian dollar. The pair traded down to 0.8773 (high 1.1398) before NZD buyers stepped back in. It seems support was gained from Fonterra’s announcement that they have again revised up the forecasted payout for this season and that was enough to turn the pair around. Since then we have seen a continual grind higher and the cross currently trades around 0.8850 (1.1300). Direction from here is a tough call. What seemed like a solid rejection from 0.8920 in the end failed to test support at 0.8740 and the resulting bounce suggests we could be in for more topside action. The two key levels at this point are 0.8740 and 0.8920 (1.1210 - 1.1445) with a break of either suggesting a broader move is in play. In the meantime expect the range trading to continue. Early next week we have the RBA rate decision and statement to digest, along with building approvals and trade balance data. From NZ there is only business confidence and building consents data scheduled for release.
The current interbank midrate is:    NZDAUD 0.8850    AUDNZD 1.1299

The interbank range this week has been:    NZDAUD 0.8773 - 0.8914  AUDNZD 1.1218 - 1.1399
Tuesday 24th September 2:00PM (NZT)
The New Zealand dollar materially outperformed the Australian dollar last week helped by some decent current account and GDP data. This helped the NZD sustain most of its post Fed announcement gains, while the AUD drifted lower and gave back much of the ground it had made. That saw the NZDAUD cross continue to grind higher into the weekend and it traded up to 0.8916 (down to 1.1216) , which is just below the previous high of 0.8922 (low of 1.1208). The failure to break through that 31 July high has seen the pair pull back and it currently trades around 0.8850 (1.1274). We could easily see some further weakness down to initial support now coming in at 0.8820 (resistance at 1.1338). But as long at the pair holds above there the risk is it will build a base for another attempt at recent highs. There is very little out of either country this week. From NZ we have trade balance and business confidence data while from Australia there is only the RBA financial stability report.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
NZD/AUD 0.8845 0.8625 0.8925 0.8746 - 0.8916
AUD/NZD 1.1306 1.1204 1.1594 1.1216 - 1.1434

Friday 20th September 2:00PM (NZT) - Update
For much of this week the New Zealand dollar was range bound against the Australian dollar trading back and forth around the 0.8790 (1.1377) level. That all changed yesterday in the wake of the Fed’s ‘no taper’ announcement and the release of NZ GDP. Since then the NZD has materially outperformed the AUD and looks to be grinding its way to retest the late July high of 0.8922 (low of 1.1208). Reaction at that level will be key to near term direction. A sharp reversal from there will probably see a broader correction lower, and a test of support now at 0.8740 (resistance at 1.1442). But while the cross holds above this level the focus is still on the topside. The economic calendar is light for both countries next week but there is plenty going on in the wider market to keep things lively.
The current interbank midrate is:    NZDAUD 0.8862    AUDNZD 1.1284

The interbank range this week has been:  NZDAUD 0.8746 - 0.8885    AUDNZD 1.1255 - 1.1434
Tuesday 17th September 2:00PM (NZT)
The New Zealand dollar lept higher against the Australian dollar last week in the wake of the RBNZ monetary policy statement and the soft Australian employment figures. That has left the picture looking positive once again for the NZD, as long as support at 0.8730 (resistance 1.1455) hold any downside tests. The pair did pull back to 0.8746 (rallied to 1.1434) yesterday, but has since bounced and currently trades near 0.8780 (1.1390). The RBA minutes this afternoon have had little impact, confirming the banks more neutral stance. In New Zealand we get the important 2nd quarter GDP number on Thursday to digest. There is also plenty of potential for volatility after the Fed's monetary policy announcement  with regards to tapering on Thursday morning.  However, it should have limited impact on the overall trend of the pair.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
NZD/AUD 0.8784 0.8600 0.8800 0.8652 - 0.8820
AUD/NZD 1.1384 1.1364 1.1628 1.1337 - 1.1558
 
Friday 13th September 2:00PM (NZT) - Update
Recent weakness in this cross had left the near term picture a little unclear, however yesterday's price action has once again put all the focus back on NZD outperformance. Strength in the New Zealand dollar after the RBNZ monetary policy statement was even more impressive in the face of the Australian dollar that took a battering in the wake of their poor employment data. The NZ dollar gained the better part of 100 points peaking at 0.8819 (low 1.1339) last night before retracing a touch. We could see some more near term weakness but it should be limited to support around 0.8730 (resistance 1.1455). The risks are all now back on the NZD upside, and another test over 0.8800 (under 1.1364) can be expected next week. The only release of note from Australia next week will be the RBA minutes. While from NZ we get current account, consumer sentiment and GDP data.
The current interbank midrate is:    NZDAUD 0.8780    AUDNZD 1.1390

The interbank range this week has been:    NZDAUD 0.8652 - 0.8819    AUDNZD 1.1339 - 1.1558
Tuesday 10th September 2:00PM (NZT)
Since breaking down below key support and trading to a low of 0.8577 (1.1659)last week, the New Zealand dollar has staged something of a recovery against the Australian dollar. That recovery peaked at 0.8714 (1.1476) on Friday evening and leaves the near term picture very muddled. Although I still favour another test of the down side, the risks are very evenly balanced and direction from here is a tough call. The current level of 0.8685 (1.1514) is pretty close to the middle of the expected range for the rest of the week. The last two trading days have seen little interest in the pair and it has kept a tight range. This could well continue ahead of the RBNZ on Thursday. From Australia this week we have business confidence, consumer sentiment, and employment data to focus on.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
NZD/AUD 0.8675 0.8600 0.8800 0.8577 - 0.8714
AUD/NZD 1.1527 1.1364 1.1628 1.1476 - 1.1659

Friday 6th September 2:00PM (NZT) - Update
A strong performance by the Australian dollar this week has raised some doubts about the prospects for this pair. Better data from China and Australia combined with the more neutral stance of the RBA saw the AUD materially outperform the NZD over the course of the week. These factors culminated in key long term trend support around 0.8650 (resistance 1.1561) being broken and the pair quickly traded down to 0.8577 (up to 1.1659). That was the NZD’s lowest level in 6 weeks. We have seen a small recovery from the NZD lows, with the pair currently sitting around 0.8640 (1.1574), but the risks are all still skewed to the downside for the NZD. Only a sustained move back above resistance at 0.8650 (below support 1.1561) will take the pressure off the downside for the NZD. If the pair does turn back down from here we can target a test of sub 0.8500 (over 1.1765). Next week the RBNZ monetary policy statement will draw focus, while from Australia we get business confidence, consumer sentiment, and employment data.
The current interbank midrate is:    NZDAUD 0.8654    AUDNZD 1.1555

The interbank range this week has been:    NZDAUD 0.8577 - 0.8710    AUDNZD 1.1481 - 1.1659
Tuesday 3rd September 4:00PM (NZT)
This pair lacked any real direction last week as both the NZD and AUD were under pressure due to wider market risk aversion. The cross has maintained a tight range between 0.8660 and 0.8740 (1.1442 and 1.1547) and these parameters have defined trade into the early part of this week as well. The broader trend is for the NZD to continue to move up and I expect another test of 0.8900 (1.1236) over the coming weeks. However momentum for such a move seems lacking at the moment. There is little out of NZ this week to drive the pair so attention will turn to Australian data, and in particular the RBA rate decision this afternoon. In the last hour we have seen Australian retail sales figures that came in below expectation and have weight on the AUD a touch. Later in the week we get GDP and trade balance followed by the general election this weekend.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
NZD/AUD 0.8695 0.8600 0.8800 0.8660 - 0.8741
AUD/NZD 1.1501 1.1364 1.1628 1.1440 - 1.1547

Friday 30th August 2.00PM (NZT) - Update
This pair bounced off key long term trend support near 0.8600 (1.1628) at the beginning of the week. Since then we have seen a gradual appreciation of the New Zealand dollar over the Australian dollar. Poor Australian data on construction output and new home sales hasn’t helped the AUD, while in NZ solid business confidence and an increased pay-out forecast from Fonterra have been positive influences on the NZD. Our current view is for a continued gradual appreciation of the pair back towards 0.8900 (1.1236), over the coming weeks. A lot of the driving force for the pair next week will come from Australia, with building approvals, retails sales, GDP, and the RBA policy meeting all set for release.
The current interbank midrate is:    NZDAUD 0.8692    AUDNZD 1.1505

The interbank range this week has been:   NZDAUD 0.8622 - 0.8741   AUDNZD 1.1440 - 1.1598
Tuesday 27th August 4:00PM (NZT)
Last week’s pull back in this pair looks to have bottomed just above key support near 0.8600 (1.1628). As the impact from better Chinese data and the RBNZ’s announcement on loan-to-value ratios starts to fade, the broader uptrend looks set to reassert itself. This should see a move over the coming weeks back up towards 0.8860 (1.1287). Data out of both countries in the second half of this week could add some volatility, although it’s hard to see any of it affecting the broader uptrend. As long as the pair holds above key trend support near 0.8600 (1.1628) the focus remains on the topside and an eventual test of recent highs. The picture could change rapidly with a move below 0.8600 (1.1628) as I expect long term stop loss orders to be building under that level. If they get triggered we could see a sharp move back towards 0.8500 (1.1765). This however is not the favoured scenario at the moment as buyers will line up on any further dips toward the 0.8600 level
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
NZD/AUD 0.8710 0.8600 0.8800 0.8622 - 0.8876
AUD/NZD 1.1481 1.1364 1.1628 1.1266 - 1.1598

Friday 23rd August 2.00PM (NZT) - Update
The New Zealand dollar has been materially out performed by the Australian dollar this week. There were two key drivers for this. Firstly the RBNZ’s announcement on loan-to-value ratios weighed on the NZD. While the AUD has benefited from a surprising rebound seen in a survey of Chinese manufacturing. Both these factors have helped to pull the cross down from highs of 0.8876 (lows of 1.1266) seen early in the week. This pullback has yet to threaten the overall broader uptrend that has been in place since March. It would take a move below 0.8600 to put that in doubt. Until then this move lower will be viewed as a correction / consolidation with an eventual test higher again. Next week from NZ we have trade balance, business confidence, and building consents to focus on. While out of Australia there is data on construction, home sales, and private sector credit.
The current interbank midrate is:    NZDAUD 0.8690    AUDNZD 1.1507

The interbank range this week has been:   NZDAUD 0.8659 - 0.8876  AUDNZD 1.1266 - 1.1549
 
Tuesday 20th August 3:00PM (NZT)
There has been over the last week little to change the current outlook for the pair. The recent range of 0.8700 - 0.8900 (1.1236 - 1.1494) looks set to continue for the time being as the New Zealand dollar consolidates recent gains against the Australian dollar. With the broader trend in favour of further NZD appreciation we can expect a break above 0.8900 at some stage. However it seems the NZD will need to do some more work below 0.8900 before it can attempt a break higher. The pair has traded up to 0.8876 in the last 24 hours, only to quickly be reversed and trade down below .8800 following the RBNZ LVR’s announcement today. There is little in the way of market moving data set for release from either country for the rest of the week.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
NZD/AUD 0.8800 0.8700 0.8900 0.8731 - 0.8876
AUD/NZD 1.1364 1.1236 1.1494 1.1266 - 1.1453

Friday 16th August 2.00PM (NZT) - Update
This pair has continued its consolidation within the broad 0.8700 - 0.8900 (1.1236 - 1.1494) range. Much of this week has been spent grinding higher from 0.8727 (lower from 1.1459) as the New Zealand dollar outperformed the Australian dollar. The appreciation in the NZD relative to the AUD was helped by solid retail sales data from NZ, and very subdued data out of Australia. The outlook for the pair is for further gains in the long run, however the near term will most likely see more consolidation within the current range. Next week we get the minutes from the latest RBA policy meeting, while from NZ we have producer prices and inflation expectations.
The current interbank midrate is:    NZDAUD 0.8850    AUDNZD 1.1299

The interbank range this week has been:   NZDAUD 0.8727 - 0.8843   AUDNZD 1.1308 - 1.1459
Tuesday 13th August 3:00PM (NZT)
The New Zealand dollar seems content for now to consolidate recent gains against the Australian dollar, and seeing the pair trade within the broad 0.8700 - 0.8900 (1.1236 - 1.1494) range. After solid gains over the past few weeks, this consolidation can only be healthy. We could even see a pullback to around 0.8600 without troubling the border uptrend. I would however expect to find plenty of buyers around that level and would be very surprised to a move below there. Focus for this week comes from NZ retail sales out tomorrow, while from Australia we get consumer sentiment, wage price index, and inflation expectations.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
NZD/AUD 0.8758 0.8700 0.8900 0.8727 - 0.8872
AUD/NZD 1.1418 1.1236 1.1494 1.1271 - 1.1459

Friday 9th August 2.00PM (NZT) - Update
The NZDAUD traded its lows for the week on Monday morning as the New Zealand dollar came under initial pressure thanks to the Fonterra contamination news. As the NZD recovered so did this pair trading to a high of 0.8872 (low of 1.1271) yesterday. The pair gave up some of that ground however in the wake of the better than expected Chinese trade data. That release saw a material increase in demand for Australian dollars and saw the cross to the NZD pull back to 0.8770. Since then trade has been somewhat subdued. The broad picture is one of a solid uptrend in the pair. However last week's gains above 0.8900 seem a step too far at this point and some more consolidation between 0.8700 and 0.8900 looks likely.
The current interbank midrate is:    NZDAUD 0.8774    AUDNZD 1.1397

The interbank range this week has been:   NZDAUD 0.8690 - 0.8872   AUDNZD 1.1271 - 1.1507
Tuesday 6th August 1:45PM (NZT)
After spiking up over 0.8900 (under 1.1239) last week the NZDAUD cross drifted lower to close the week around 0.8800 (AUDNZD higher to 1.1364). The Fonterra news over the weekend saw the New Zealand dollar open down substantially on Monday morning with the rate against the Australian dollar briefly dipping below 0.8700. It seems weakness on a number of NZD crosses bought buyers out of the woodwork who had been waiting for an opportunity. Accordingly the currency spent much of the day gradually recovering. Now back to 0.8800 (below 1.1365), the focus for this pair turns to the Reserve Bank of Australia’s rate announcement this afternoon. The market has almost fully priced in the expectation of a 25 point rate cut. This should keep the NZD well supported ahead of tomorrow NZ employment data, as the pressure remains on the AUD.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
NZD/AUD 0.8790 0.8700 0.8900 0.8690 - 0.8926
AUD/NZD 1.1377 1.1236 1.1494 1.1203 - 1.1507

Friday 2nd August 2.00PM (NZT) - Update
The recent trend for this pair has continued this week. The NZD has been the main beneficiary of the AUD weakness over the last month, albeit we may have seen the extremes in the short term. RBA Governor Stevens has all but confirmed the 25pt easing to the cash rate at next week’s RBA monetary policy meeting. With the respective cash rates even at 2.50%, and the prospect of initial RBNZ hikes early next year, the AUD underperformance has been justified for the most part. Immediate direction from current levels is less certain, with the bulk of the easy moves having been made. Overtime it seems likely that the NZD demand will continue, unless we see a turnaround in the activity in Australia.
The current interbank midrate is:    NZDAUD 0.8855    AUDNZD 1.1293

The interbank range this week has been:   NZDAUD 0.8709 - 0.8926   AUDNZD 1.1203 - 1.1482
Tuesday 30th July 4:45PM (NZT)
After strong gains in the second half of last week, this pair had taken a breather and spent the last couple of days consolidating above 0.8700 (1.1494). That all changed in the wake of RBA Governor Stevens speech this afternoon. His comments that the recent inflation data has left from for further rate cuts sent the AUD lower and the NZD took off again. It has now traded over 0.8800 ( below 1.1363) and all the risks are still skewed to the topside for the NZD. There is now good support at 0.8700 (resistance 1.1500) should we get any sort of pullback. The long term trend is up and a target of 0.9000 (1.1111) is still well on the cards by the end of the year, if not earlier.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
NZD/AUD 0.8800 0.8700 0.8900 0.8591 - 0.8813
AUD/NZD 1.1364 1.1236 1.1491 1.1346 - 1.1640

Friday 26th July 2.00PM (NZT) - Update
The broad uptrend of the New Zealand dollar against the Australian dollar has continued unabated this week. Very poor manufacturing data out of China weighed on the AUD and had the pair trading up through 0.8660 (down through 1.1547). Then the somewhat firmer tone from the RBNZ in their monetary policy statement saw an increase in demand for the NZD, and the pair jumped up through 0.8700 (1.1494). Last night the USD got sold against everything. Of note was that the NZD seemed to outperform, and the cross to the AUD continued its move higher touching 0.8772 (1.1400) before pulling back a touch. The risks are still all skewed to the topside with the big psychological level of 0.9000 (1.1111) a very realistic target in the coming months.
The current interbank midrate is:    NZDAUD 0.8728    AUDNZD 1.1457

The interbank range this week has been:    NZDAUD 0.8591 - 0.8772    AUDNZD 1.1400 - 1.1640
Tuesday 23rd July 3:00PM (NZT)
After rallying last week up through 0.8600 (1.1630), the pair looks comfortable consolidating the move in sideways trade through that level. A brief flurry up to 0.8662 (down to 1.1545) was short lived, and the pair pulled back to currently trade around 0.8620 (1.1601). The longer term trend is up and we expect further gains in the coming weeks and months. Any potential dips will now run into key long term trend support at 0.8460 (resistance 1.1820) and this should limit any NZD downside. The risks this week are centred around Australian inflation data tomorrow, and the Reserve Bank of New Zealand monetary policy statement on Thursday.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
NZD/AUD 0.8620 0.8460 0.8660 0.8519 - 0.8662
AUD/NZD 1.1601 1.1547 1.1820 1.1545 - 1.1739

Friday 19th July 12.00PM (NZT) - Update
This week has seen the NZ dollar maintain its recent pressure on the beleaguered AUD. The NZ inflation numbers were a non-event as anticipated. In Australia the RBA monetary policy meeting minutes provided the focus and the result was a small pull back in expectations of further easing to the cash rate. This has not transferred into on-going demand for the AUD unfortunately. The pairing pushed back to .8530 (1.1720) before the demand for the NZ dollar again outpaced that of the AUD and the pairing against pressed the .8620 (1.1600) level. Apart from short term pullbacks, it seems like the NZ dollar will continue to outperform the AUD in the short term at least. Next week sees the focus provided by the RBNZ monetary policy announcement, and the latest inflation numbers in Australia.
The current interbank midrate is:    NZDAUD 0.8610    AUDNZD 1.1614

The interbank range this week has been:    NZDAUD 0.8519 - 0.8631    AUDNZD 1.1586 - 1.1739
Tuesday 16th July 3:30PM (NZT)
The NZDAUD continues to grind out gains and now seem very comfortable above 0.8500 (1.1765). The recent highs of 0.8631 (1.1586) were made on Friday evening after comments from the Chinese finance minister hit the wires that seemed to suggest growth going forward could be below 7%. Both the NZD and AUD got sold, but the AUD saw the worst of it making fresh cycle lows and this caused the cross rate to spike above 0.8600 (1.1628). However, like many moves of the past week, a good chunk of it was unwound pretty quickly. This afternoon’s release of the RBA minutes has lent support to the Australian dollar and as a result the NZDAUD cross is testing down towards 0.8530 (1.1723). This correction could easily head a fair bit  further lower, however on a longer term time horizon it’s not hard to imagine levels of 0.8800 (1.1364) or even 0.9000 (1.1111)by the end of the year.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
NZD/AUD 0.8534 0.8500 0.8700 0.8509 - 0.8631
AUD/NZD 1.1718 1.1494 1.1765 1.1586 - 1.1752

Friday 12th July 2:45PM (NZT) - Update
There has been little in the way of direction for the NZDAUD (AUDNZD) pair this week. Moves have been dominated by the relative pace of strength and weakness in the NZD and AUD as they have been whipped around by offshore factors. The long term trend is certainly up for the NZD, and over time it seems likely the NZD will grind higher. Dips this week have been limited to levels around 0.8500 (resistance 1.1765) and although that doesn’t rule out the possibility of deeper corrections in the future, for now it keeps the focus on tests toward 0.8600 (1.1630). Next week sees inflation figures from New Zealand, the RBA minutes from Australia, and Chinese GDP data to throw in the mix.
The current interbank midrate is:   NZDAUD 0.8572    AUDNZD 1.1666

The interbank range this week has been:   NZDAUD 0.8509 - 0.8592  AUDNZD 1.1639 - 1.1752
Tuesday 9th July 4:00PM (NZT)
The recent trend of the NZ dollar outperforming the AUD remained in place last week. Given its performance over the last few months, it seems likely that the current momentum will start to wane a little around the current levels. The pair has moved towards upper end of the range for the NZDAUD (lower end of range AUDNZD), and around the .8580 (1.1655) the NZD. The weak Australian economic news continues to support the recent AUD underperformance. The focus for the pair this week will be the Australian employment numbers on Thursday. Today’s positive NZ business opinion numbers were the highlight of economic news in NZ this week.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
NZD/AUD 0.8550 0.8380 0.8580 0.8453 - 0.8582
AUD/NZD 1.1696 1.1655 1.1933 1.1652 - 1.1830

Friday 5th July 2:45PM (NZT) - Update
The driving force in this pair recently has been weakness in the Australian dollar. This week has been no different. As the AUD suffered in the wake of the Reserve Bank Rate decision the NZD rallied strongly making fresh cycle highs against the AUD. This keep the focus firmly on the topside for the NZD. Initial support comes in at 0.8440 (resistance 1.1850) ahead of major support at 0.8330 Resistance 1.2000). Tonight’s US employment data has the potential to create some volatility, but expect any dips from the NZD to run into good buying from 0.8440 down (1.1850 and up).
The current interbank midrate is:    NZDAUD 0.8552    AUDNZD 1.1693

The interbank range this week has been: NZDAUD 0.8449 - 0.8582 AUDNZD 1.1652 -1.1836
Tuesday 2nd July 3:00PM (NZT)
This pair has continued to trade in its recently established range, consolidating the recent NZ dollar strength. This week’s focus comes entirely from Australian input in the absence of any top tier NZ economic news. The RBA monetary policy announcement due later on today should not offer any surprises, with the cash rate unchanged at 2.75%. The latest retail sales, trade balance and building approval numbers round out the Australian data for the week. Expect the pair to continue to consolidate within its recent range this week.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
NZD/AUD 0.8462 0.8350 0.8550 0.8346 - 0.8480
AUD/NZD 1.1817 1.1700 1.1975 1.1792 - 1.1982

Friday 28th June 3:15PM (NZT) - Update
The early part of this week saw the NZDAUD cross drift lower as the pull back from last week’s highs continued. The pair finally found support around 0.8350 (1.1976) and has subsequently recovered to trade just above 0.8400 (1.1905). This is very familiar territory for the pair and it certainly seems comfortable at these levels. With little out of New Zealand next week, the focus will be on Australian releases in the form of the RBA rate decision, retail sales, trade balance and building approvals. Heading into that data, we can expect more directionless trade between 0.8350 and 0.8450 (1.1976 - 1.1834) with the risks skewed to the upside.
The current interbank midrate is:    NZDAUD 0.8430    AUDNZD 1.1862

The interbank range this week has been:   NZDAUD 0.8342 - 0.8435  AUDNZD 1.1856 - 1.1987
Tuesday 25th June 3:20PM (NZT)
After trading up over 0.8500 (under 1.1765) as the Australian dollar wore the worst of the selling in the wake of the Fed announcement, the NZDAUD cross has pulled back considerably and now trades just below 0.8400 (above 1.1905). This is a familiar area for the pair as it has spent much of the past three weeks trading around this level. It seems try as it may the NZDAUD just can’t seem to hold onto gains above 0.8400 (below 1.1905). I still expect good support for the pair around 0.8350 (1.1976) and this should contain the downside for now. More choppy trade between 0.8350 (1.1976) and 0.8450 (1.1834) is likely over the course of this week.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
NZD/AUD 0.8375 0.8350 0.8550 0.8354 - 0.8508
AUD/NZD 1.1940 1.1976 1.1696 1.1754 - 1.1970

Friday 21st June 3:45PM (NZT) - Update
The NZDAUD had been trying hard over the past couple of weeks to get a foothold above 0.8400. The trigger for that to finally happen was the announcement by Ben Bernanke that the US Fed’s QE programme was likely to be scaled back in the coming months. In the carnage that followed the AUD got hit a fair bit harder than the NZD. As a result the cross rate spiked up over 0.8500 making it the highest level it’s traded in 4 years. The softer than expected NZ GDP data that came out a few hours later added to selling pressure on the NZD and the cross has pulled back from that level. But this pull back has held above 0.8400 and that level should continue to provide support. The pair will likely remain choppy as the NZD and AUD move around on various flows, but I suspect we are now in the range of 0.8400 - 0.8500 for the near term.
The current interbank midrate is:    NZDAUD 0.8430    AUDNZD 1.1862

The interbank range this week has been:  NZDAUD 0.8363 - 0.8508  AUDNZD 1.1754 - 1.1957
Tuesday 18th June 3:30PM (NZT)
The NZDAUD cross started the week back up trading near its recent highs of 0.8431 (AUDNZD lows of 1.1861). But again it failed to hold onto gains and fell back below 0.8400 (above 1.1905) last night. This came as both the New Zealand dollar and the Australian dollar got sold against a surging USD. The pair feels like it wants to break into a new range above 0.8400 (below 1.1905) but for the time being it’s confined to trading just below that level. Any dip toward 0.8300 (1.2048) should continue to find good support, with further tests above 0.8400 (1.1905) expected over the coming week. Trading will no doubt remain choppy over the coming days and working limit orders to take advantage of these conditions is recommended for those looking to cover exposure.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
NZD/AUD 0.8390 0.8250 0.8450 0.8311 - 0.8431
AUD/NZD 1.1919 1.2121 1.1834 1.1861 - 1.2032
 
Friday 14th June 3:15PM (NZT) - Update
Broadly speaking the NZDAUD has continued to be range bound, trading a 0.8300 - 0.8400 (AUDNZD 1.1900 - 1.2050) range this week. It did however have a short lived spike up to 0.8431 on Thursday, but quickly pulled back below 0.8400 where it currently trades. The outlook is for more of the same with a slight upside bias. The pair has tried on a number of times over the last few weeks to gain a foothold above 0.8400, but has so far failed to do so. The risk is certainly there for a sustained move higher, but it’s going to be hard work and we can expect plenty of choppy price action as moves in the NZD and AUD swing the cross around. Levels down toward 0.8300 seem like good value buying at the moment.
The current interbank midrate is:    NZDAUD 0.8400    AUDNZD 1.1905

The interbank range this week has been:   NZDAUD 0.8311 - 0.8431   AUDNZD 1.1861 - 1.2032
Tuesday 11th June 3:20PM (NZT)
The NZDAUD currently seems content to trade sideways between 0.8300 (1.2048) and 0.8400 (1.1905). Expect more of the same this week with the risks skewed toward further upside action, as long at the pair continues to hold above key support at 0.8260 (1.2107). Below that level and the outlook will quickly change with a deeper pullback likely. Although the RBNZ rate decision shouldn’t hold many surprises this week, we could get some volatility from Australian data, particularly employment numbers on Thursday.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
NZD/AUD 0.8371 0.8260 0.8460 0.8264 - 0.8396
AUD/NZD 1.1946 1.2107 1.1820 1.1910 - 1.2101

Friday 7th June 5:15PM (NZT) - Update
Late last week the NZDAUD cross stage a nice pullback from recent highs trading all the way down to 0.8264 (up to 1.2101), where it opened this week. From there however, the dominant uptrend reasserted itself and the pair spent much of the week grinding its way back up. The driving force of this move has been weakness in the AUD and disappointing GDP figures didn’t help. The cross has been choppy however and there have been some wild swings in most currencies in the last 24 hours. Expect the pair to continue to find support on any further dips below 0.8300 (above 1.2048) with the focus on a move back to 0.8400 (1.1905).
The current interbank midrate is:    NZDAUD 0.8390    AUDNZD 1.1919

The interbank range this week has been:    NZDAUD 0.8264 - 0.8396    AUDNZD 1.1910 - 1.2101
Tuesday 4th June 4:50PM (NZT)
This pair has staged a nice corrective pullback from the high of 0.8461 (low 1.1819) seen on Thursday last week. The driving force behind the move has been some better data out of Australia and China, improving the outlook a little for the AUD. The AUD also materially outperformed the NZD last night, after both currencies rallied against a weaker USD. This pullback in the pair has very quickly reached the initial target and first line of NZD support at 0.8280 (1.2077). This level has provided good buying since early May. Near term direction could well be decided by what the Reserve Bank of Australia have to say at their rate announcement today. Any break below 0.8280 (1.2077) will target the next line of support at 0.8220 (1.2165).
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
NZD/AUD 0.8283 0.8220 0.8400 0.8264 - 0.8461
AUD/NZD 1.2073 1.1905 1.2165 1.1819 - 1.2101

Friday 31st May 2:25PM (NZT) - Update
The NZD continued its slow grind higher in the early part of this week as the AUD remained under pressure across the board. This saw a fresh high of 0.8461 (low 1.1819) trade on Thursday. Since then however we have seen bit of a turnaround and the pair now trades a solid 100 points lower at 0.8365 (higher 1.1954). The trigger for this was a bout of AUD strength after some solid building approvals data. Although this isn’t going to change the overall uptrend, there is now a good chance of this pullback going further and testing support at 0.8280 (resistance 1.2080). That would probably be a good target for those who have been waiting for a correction to sell AUD and buy NZD. I would expect to see plenty of support around that level.
The current interbank midrate is:    NZDAUD 0.8365    AUDNZD 1.1955

The interbank range this week has been:    NZDAUD 0.8342 - 0.8461    AUDNZD 1.1819 - 1.1988

Tuesday 28th May 4:50PM (NZT)
After being capped around 0.8350 (1.1975) for most of the last two weeks, the NZD has finally broken higher and now trades around 0.8400 (1.1905). This latest move is on the back of weakness in the AUD. We are currently trading at the highest levels since 2008. There is a lot of negativity around the AUD at the moment, with forecasters starting to make calls for the pair to reach 0.9000 (1.1110) in the next 12 months. Dips will continue to find buyers with 0.8350 (rallies 1.1975) now the first level of NZD support.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
NZD/AUD .8385 .8300 .8500 .8319 - .8405
AUD/NZD 1.1926 1.1765 1.2050 1.1895 - 1.2020

Friday 24th May 3:00PM (NZT) - Update
The recent range of 0.8250 - 0.8350 (1.1980 - 1.2120) has dominated trade for most of the week in this pair. We have seen spikes to just above 0.8360 (below 1.1960) with the cross currently trading just through that level. But recent price action has shown the upside is slow going, and these are good levels relative to the last few years to buy AUD with NZD. Expect more of the same action going forward as the market ever so slowly grinds in the NZ dollars favour, with moves towards 0.8280 (1.2080) finding good NZD support.
The current interbank midrate is:    NZDAUD .8353    AUDNZD 1.1972

The interbank range this week has been:    NZDAUD .8284 - .8364    AUDNZD 1.1956 - 1.2071
Tuesday 21st May 3:50PM (NZT)
This pair has continued to trade sideways around 0.8300 (1.2050). Dips below 0.8280 (above 1.2075) are finding NZD support, but the pair has struggled on any moves up toward 0.8350 (below 1.1975). Although the longer term trend is for NZD appreciation in the current environment, these are attractive levels to buy AUD with NZ dollars, relative to the pricing over last few years. It would take a sustained move below 0.8250 (above 1.2120) to turn the focus to the NZD weakness, and signal the start of a bigger pullback for the NZD against the Australian dollar.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
NZD/AUD .8341 .8200 .8400 .8274 - .8354
AUD/NZD 1.1989 1.1900 1.2200 1.1970 - 1.2090

Friday 17th May 4:20PM (NZT) - Update
Both the NZD and the AUD have struggled against the USD this week, but overall the NZD has held up better than the AUD. This has seen the cross rate remain choppy but with an NZD upside bias. The stable outlook for NZ relative to Australia’s weakening economy, has seen buyers emerge on a number of occasions this week when the pair traded below 0.8280 (above 1.0277). While the pair remains above this level the risk is for further NZD gains, and a retest of the weeks high around 0.8350(lows 1.1976). These are however very good levels to be buying AUD with NZD relative to the last few years, and that means any further appreciation will be much slower than the gains we have seen over the last two months.
The current interbank midrate is: NZDAUD .8302    AUDNZD 1.2045

The interbank range this week has been: NZDAUD .8272 - .8353   AUDNZD 1.1971 - 1.2089
Tuesday 14th May 3:15PM (NZT)
This pair is currently trading sideways around 0.8300 (1.2050). Dips toward 0.8250 (rallies 1.2120) are finding buyers of NZ dollars, while tests toward 0.8350(1.1980) can’t be sustained at the moment. So NZ dollar is consolidating at these recent higher levels (AUD lower levels), and as long as the pair holds above 0.8225 (below 1.2160) ,the bias remains for a strong NZD. The stronger NZ economy relative to the softening outlook for Australia, should keep this bias over the medium term. There is little in the way of major data out in either economy for the remainder of the week.Therefore expect more sideways price action over the coming days.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
NZD/AUD .8303 .8150 .8350 .8224 - .8344
AUD/NZD 1.2043 1.1980 1.2270 1.1985 - 1.2160

Friday 10th May 2:20PM (NZT) - Update
This pair has had a wild ride this week, with the action in both currencies. The pair saw a sharp move to a high of 0.8344 ( low 1.1980) after the RBA cut rates on Tuesday, before drifting back to consolidate just above 0.8300 (below 1.2050). Governor Wheelers talk of intervention saw the NZD under pressure and the pair quickly move down below initial support at 0.8250 (above resistance 1.2120),  trading a low of 0.8224 (high 1.2160). With the NZ dollar having rallied strongly over the last eight weeks, this looked like the start of what could have been a deeper correction. However the strong NZ unemployment data put pay to that idea. and the pair recovered strongly back up toward 0.8300 (below 1.2050). The outlook from here will no doubt continue to be choppy, but as long as it holds above 0.8224 (below 1.2160) , the strong NZD demand looks to be a primary driver of this pair.
The current interbank midrate is:    NZDAUD .8302    AUDNZD 1.2045

The interbank range this week has been:    NZDAUD .8244 - .8344    AUDNZD 1.1980 - 1.2160
Tuesday 7th May 5:15PM (NZT)
The AUD has been under continued pressure lately, and that has seen the NZDAUD continue its slow march higher. It is currently cementing a move above 0.8300. Although these levels represent good selling relative to the last few years, I would be very hesitant to call any sort of top. There is no major technical resistance in the upside until 0.8570. The downside is protected by 0.8250 support ahead of 0.8200. There is potential for plenty of movement this week following the RBA rate announcement today, and looking forward to the NZ unemployment data on Thursday. Today’s RBA cut to the cash rate has further undermined the AUD. It will be interesting to see if this trend continues ahead of the both the NZ and Australian employment numbers on Thursday.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
NZD/AUD 0.8343 0.8200 0.8570 0.8250 - 0.8355
AUD/NZD 1.1985 1.1670 1.2195 1.1969 - 1.2120
 
Friday 3rd May 2:20PM (NZT) - Update
The NZDAUD has held firmly above 0.8250 this week, but has failed to have any serious attempt at 0.8300 on topside. Choppy trade between 0.8260 and 0.8290 has defined the week, and we head into the weekend with the cross at the upper end of that range thanks to some broad AUD weakness. This cross has come a long way over the last few months and is at very good levels relative to the last few years. However, picking tops (lows AUDNZD) in a rallying market is a dangerous game. With key employment data out on both side of the Tasman next week, as well as the RBA rate decison, there is plenty of potential for a decent move in either direction.
The current interbank midrate is:    NZDAUD .8290    AUDNZD 1.2063

The interbank range this week has been:    NZDAUD .8250 - .8293    AUDNZD 1.2058 - 1.2120
Tuesday 30th April 4:15PM (NZT)
Those waiting for a pullback in the NZD against the AUD have been sorely disappointed lately ,with the NZD relentlessly grinding higher for much of the past six weeks. The last five days have seen it establish a firm footing above 0.8250. A test of recent highs around 0.8290 seem likely. At some point a corrective from the NZD will no doubt happen, but the timing of such a move, and from what level remains uncertain. Against a backdrop of a relatively strong NZ economy, and a reasonably good chance of an RBA cut later in the year, the pressure seems to be to the upside. Ahead of the May 7th RBA monetary policy meeting, it looks increasingly likely that buying emerge on any pullback from the NZ dollar.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
NZD/AUD .8270 .8100 .8300 .8180 - .8292
AUD/NZD 1.2092 1.2050 1.2350 1.2060 - 1.225

Friday 26th April 4:45PM (NZT) - Update
The NZD has materially outperformed the Australian dollar this week. The demand for NZ dollars has been boosted by dual forces of lower than expected Australian inflation, and the reaction to the RBNZ monetary policy announcement. As the Australian interest rate markets continue to push for further cuts to the cash rate from the RBA, the pressure will likely stay on the Australian dollar. The NZD resistance (Australian dollar support) has been taken out, and it seems likely that the pair will establish a new range in the coming weeks. With only 2nd tier data in either economy next week, the focus will be increasingly on the RBA monetary policy meeting on the 7th of May.
The current interbank midrate is:    NZDAUD .8260    AUDNZD 1.2106

The interbank range this week has been:    NZDAUD .8169 - .8280    AUDNZD 1.2077 - 1.2241
Tuesday 23rd April 6:15PM (NZT)
This pair continues to trade at the upper NZD end of its recent range. The weak Chinese economic data will likely have larger impact on the Australian economy and this has been a factor in the recent pricing. From a risk vs return perspective, buying AUD with NZ dollars at current levels looks to offer value. The focus for the pair comes tomorrow (Wednesday) with the release of the RBNZ monetary policy announcement and the latest Australian inflation numbers. If the interest rate market looks to further increase odd of an imminent RBA easing to the cash rate, the pressure will stay on the AUD.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
NZD/AUD .8197 .8020 .8220 .8166 - .8216
AUD/NZD 1.2200 1.2165 1.2470 1.2171 - 1.2246

Friday 19th April 4:02PM (NZT) - Update
This pair has traded a relatively contained range this week. Again the NZD has seen demand, and this saw the NZ dollar spending periods of time at the upper levels of its expected range. The increasing odds of a lower cash rate from the RBA has enabled the NZ dollar’s out performance. However, it has not been able to consolidate through resistance levels, and the pair has drifted back within its increasingly comfortable .8000 - .8200( 1.2200 - 1.2500) range. Next Wednesday offers the primary focus of next week for this pair. The RBA monetary policy statement comes ahead of the first quarter Australian inflation numbers. It seems likely that a surprise will be needed from either or these to to push the pair from its increasingly familiar recent range.
The current interbank midrate is:    NZDAUD .8175    AUDNZD 1.2232

The interbank range this week has been:    NZDAUD .8133 - .8209    AUDNZD 1.2182 - 1.2296
Tuesday 16th April 4:42PM (NZT)
Last week saw the NZ dollar push up to the top of its recent range against the Australian dollar. Weak Australian employment numbers aided what was increased demand for the New Zealand dollar across the board. The pair remains at what can be considered relatively fair levels, given the outlook for monetary policy from the respective central banks. The RBA minutes confirm they remain open to further easing of the cash rate if required, albeit they not at that point right now. It seems the pair will remain weighted in favour of the NZD in the short term. The NZ inflation number on Wednesday provides the primary focus for this pair in the short term.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
NZD/AUD .8175 .7980 .8180 .8101 - .8203
AUD/NZD 1.2232 1.2225 1.2530 1.2191- 1.2344

Friday 12th April 2:02PM (NZT) - Update
Increased NZ dollar demand has pushed it further towards the upper end of its recent range against the AUD. Broad based NZ dollar demand had seen it make solid headway even before yesterday’s weak Australian employment numbers, which provided an extra boost. Current levels offer good value buying of AUD with NZ dollars, albeit the pair still within recent ranges. Next week will see the RBA monetary policy meeting minutes on Tuesday, and the NZ inflation numbers on Wednesday provide the primary focus for this pair.
The current interbank midrate is:    NZDAUD .8188    AUDNZD 1.2213

The interbank range this week has been:    NZDAUD .8064 - .8203    AUDNZD 1.2190 - 1.2400
Tuesday 9th April 4:51PM (NZT)
The NZ dollar made steady ground against the Australian dollar last week. There were a number of factors adding to the increased NZD demand, including rumoured re-insurance demand and the setting of record dairy prices at Fonterra's latest Global Dairy Trade (GDT) auction. What made the NZD gains somewhat curious was the AUD supportive Australian economic data that came to light. It looks like the pair is getting up towards the end of a range that represents good value buying of AUD with NZ dollars. This week will see the Australian employment numbers offer the primary focus on Thursday.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
NZD/AUD .8137 .7980 .8180 .8024 - .8138
AUD/NZD 1.2289 1.2225 1.2530 1.2288 - 1.2463

Friday 5th April 4:28PM (NZT) - Update
This pair remains just within its expected range this week. The NZ dollar has somewhat surprisingly outperformed the AUD this week. Positive Australian economic data has seen the increased NZD demand overshadow its influence. There have been rumours of re-insurance flow boost demand for the NZD and the price action certainly supports that. It seems likely that the current levels (right on .8080 resistance (1.2380 support) will prove to have offered good value buying of AUD overtime. With the undetermined influences currently at play, the concept of "averaging" is one to be considered in this pair.
The current interbank midrate is:    NZDAUD .8068    AUDNZD 1.2395

The interbank range this week has been:    NZDAUD .8024 - .8073    AUDNZD 1.2386 - 1.2463
Tuesday 2th April 4:00PM (NZT)
The NZ dollar saw some grinding appreciation against the AUD at the start of last week. The pair has now consolidated at this new level towards the upper end of the recent range. The pair has now spent almost a month contained in this current .7880 - .8080 ( 1.2375- 1.2700) range. This week sees the RBA monetary policy decision later today as a focus. Also in Australia is Wednesday's trade balance, and Thursdays building approvals and retail sales data. There is an absence of NZ economic data this week.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
NZD/AUD .8026 .7880 .8080 .7968 - .8043
AUD/NZD 1.2460 1.2375 1.2700 1.2433 - 1.2550

Tuesday 26th March 4:10PM (NZT)
The New Zealand dollar saw appreciation against the Australian dollar last week. This performance came following the much stronger than expected 4th quarter NZ GDP number. However, after the initial leap the pair has settled down to trade a very contained range and this looks likely to continue this week. There is little in the way of material economic data in either economy, so expect the recent range to remain intact. Next week sees a return of focus in Australia with the RBA monetary policy announcement, building approval numbers and retail sales data. Current levels offer fair value for this pair, being towards the middle of the recent range.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
NZD/AUD .7980 .7880 .8080 .7914 - .8001
AUD/NZD 1.2531 1.2375 1.2700 1.2498 - 1.2636

Friday 22nd March February 4:15PM (NZT) - Update
Trade for this pair has been relatively contained this week. Yesterday's surprisingly strong NZ GDP number provided a notable boost for the NZD and as a result the pair tested  initial resistance at .8000 (support 1.2500). The subsequent pull back sees the pair at more comfortable levels given the RBA's confirmation of its "wait and see" approach to monetary policy. Next week should not offer too much in the way of surprises with little in the way of top tier economic news in either economy.
The current interbank midrate is:    NZDAUD .7980    AUDNZD 1.2531

The interbank range this week has been:    NZDAUD .7914 - .7993    AUDNZD 1.2511 - 1.2636
Tuesday 19th March 3:58PM (NZT)
The NZ dollar saw sustained pressure from the resurgent Australian dollar last week. It was a double whammy of increased AUD demand following the strong employment data, and increased NZD supply following the RBNZ monetary policy statement. The pair has stablised off the NZD lows, and the pair feels comfortable around current levels for the time being. Today's RBA monetary policy meeting minutes shed little in the way of new insight, and the focus now turns the belated 4th quarter NZ GDP number on Thursday. In the absence of a surprisingly weak NZ GDP number, current levels look to offer reasonably good value buying of AUD with NZ dollars.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
NZD/AUD .7941 .7880 .8080 .7888 - .8030
AUD/NZD 1.2593 1.2375 1.2700 1.2453 - 1.2677

Friday 15th March February 4:15PM (NZT) - Update
This pair has seen the NZD under pressure this week as the RBNZ monetary policy statement and incredibly strong Australian employment numbers coupled to ensure the AUD outperformed. NZD support at .8000 (resistance 1.2500) contained the initial moves from the pair, before the onslaught of news materially increased demand for the AUD. Current levels offer very good value buying of NZD with AUD in my view. It remains very unlikely that the RBNZ would end up cutting the cash rate from its already emergency low 2.50%, and RBA will likely continue with their wait and see approach to monetary policy. Taking these factors into account, it seems likely the pair has established a NZD lower of the range (upper AUD). Next week the 4th quarter GDP number on Thursday will dominate focus in NZ. In Australia, Tuesday's release of the RBA monetary policy meeting minutes will be closely watched.
The current interbank midrate is:    NZDAUD .7912    AUDNZD 1.2639

The interbank range this week has been:    NZDAUD .7888 - .8067    AUDNZD 1.2396 - 1.2677
Monday 11th March 4:01PM (NZT)
The price action for this pair has been somewhat curious in the last week. The NZD has seen renewed pressure from the Australian dollar following the materially better than expected retail sales numbers in Australia on Tuesday. Not even the outstanding GDT auction results in NZ were enough to counter the increased AUD demand, and gains were consolidated following the as expected 4th quarter Australian GDP figure. The weaker Chinese numbers revealed over the weekend may see the AUD soften a bit as the news is digested today, and that maybe enough to see a rebound in fortunes from the NZD. Certainly the pair is moving back towards the lower NZD end of the range, and current levels offer better value buying of the NZ dollar with AUD.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
NZD/AUD .8042 .8000 .8200 .8013 - .8118
AUD/NZD 1.2435 1.2200 1.2500 1.2318 - 1.2480

Friday 8th March February 4:00PM (NZT) - Update
The pair has traded a relatively contained and unexciting range this week. The NZ dollar initially saw demand to push up to the weeks highs, before the materially stronger than expected Australian retail sales numbers undermined that appreciation. The strong GDT auction results have not been quite enough for the NZD to hold its gains as numbers from China further support the AUD. So the pair remains in increasingly familiar ranges, and with the current levels looking to offer good value buying of NZD with AUD.
The current interbank midrate is:    NZDAUD .8060    AUDNZD 1.2407

The interbank range this week has been:    NZDAUD .8055 - .8118    AUDNZD 1.2318 - 1.2415

Tuesday 5th March 4:53PM (NZT)
This pair has traded a relatively contained and expected range over the last week. Certainly as expectations of near term easing from the RBA have reduced, any NZD appreciation has proven harder fought than in previous weeks. This week is all about the Australian economy and the RBA. Today's retail sales numbers further point towards a wait and see approach from the RBA in the short term. Tomorrow's GDP numbers are equally as important and will be closely watched. Certainly a surprise would be needed to see this pair move out of the recently established range.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
NZD/AUD .8106 .8030 .8230 .8058 - .8121
AUD/NZD 1.2337 1.2050 1.2420 1.2314 - 1.2410

Friday 1st March February 4:33PM (NZT) - Update
After seeing some initial appreciation against the AUD to start this week,  the New Zealand dollar has given ground to the AUD. This came as investor concerns grew surrounding the dry conditions in the North Island and its effects on NZ dairy exports. The economic news has had limited impact on the pair whose direction has predominantly been “flow“ driven and contained by the expected range. With the pair down towards levels where the NZ dollar should find support, the focus comes entirely from the important Australian economic news next week. Tuesdays RBA monetary policy statement will provide the primary focus ahead of the 4th quarter GDP number on Wednesday.
The current interbank midrate is:    NZDAUD .8086    AUDNZD 1.2367

The interbank range this week has been:    NZDAUD .8058 - .8153    AUDNZD 1.2265 - 1.2410
Tuesday 26th February 3:53PM (NZT)
This pair had traded a relatively contained range in the last week. The NZD was tipped from its highs following a warning from RBNZ Governor Wheeler about its elevated levels. This contrasted rhetoric from RBA Governor Stevens and has been enough to push the pair back to seemingly more comfortable levels. The AUD weakness that followed yesterday’s weak Chinese manufacturing numbers could not be sustained, and the pair looks likely to trade a relatively narrow range as the focus returns to issues external to Australasia in the short term at least.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
NZD/AUD .8114 .8030 .8230 .8101 - .8194
AUD/NZD 1.2324 1.2050 1.2420 1.2204 - 1.2344

Friday 22nd February 4:36PM (NZT)- Update
It has been an interesting week for this pair. It has seen the establishment of an upper NZD (lower AUD) end of what should be a new range for the pair. The inability of the pair to consolidate through the .8200 (1.2200) level, has seen pair investigate lower NZD levels following separate speeches from the respective central bankers. RBNZ Governor Wheeler pushed the NZD lower and today's testimony from RBA Governor Steven's seems to have caught the market "sold AUD" and a scramble to buy back AUD has ensued. Support at .8100 (1.2350 resistance) has held so far, and this level holds the key to direction in the short term. Next week sees the primary focus come from the Australian capital expenditure numbers, whilst the balance of the data releases should be of limited overall impact.
The current interbank midrate is:    NZDAUD .8130    AUDNZD 1.2300

The interbank range this week has been:    NZDAUD .8101 - .8220    AUDNZD 1.2166 - 1.2344
Tuesday 19th February 3:50PM (NZT)
The NZ dollar remains close to its two and half year highs against the Australian dollar. Last week's strong NZ retail sales number provided the latest impetus for the NZD to outperform. This week will likely see the pair start to consolidate at these new levels in the absence of top tier economic data in either economy. With respective central bank governors both speaking, the chance of "verbal" intervention remains a prospect on both sides of the Tasman. Given the significant gains the NZD has made against its trading partners in the last couple of months, the effects on the export sector are likely to emerge in the coming months. Today's RBA monetary policy meeting minutes show the RBA remained poised to ease the 3.00% cash rate lower if required, but it by no means is a foregone conclusion. Current levels therefore offer good value buying of AUD with NZ dollars, albeit the opportunity maybe on going in the coming months.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
NZD/AUD .8160 .8030 .8230 .8126 - .8229
AUD/NZD 1.2255 1.2050 1.2420 1.2152 - 1.2306

Friday 15th February 6:36PM (NZT)- Update
The NZ dollar has continued its grind higher against the Australian dollar this week. Consolidation through the .8100 level has opened the way for the appreciation and the highs were set following today's impressive 4th quarter NZ retail sales numbers. The NZD appreciation has surprised somewhat, given the recent NZ employment numbers, that have been largely dismissed by this move. The pair is now at levels not seen since 2010, and at the risk of sounding like a broken record, further appreciation will be tougher for the NZD from these elevated levels. Australia remains New Zealand's number one trading partner and appreciation will directly effect markets in Australia for NZ exporters. The interest rate markets have moved forward the timing of cash rate hikes from the RBNZ and this supports the week's appreciation. Potentially the market has got ahead of it self, and if that proves to be the case, then current levels offer great value buying of AUD with New Zealand dollars.
 
The current interbank midrate is: NZDAUD .8209 AUDNZD 1.2180
 
The interbank range this week has been: NZDAUD .8091 - .8229 AUDNZD 1.2152 - 1.2359

Tuesday 12th February 5:50PM (NZT)
The NZD remains in demand against the recent beleaguered AUD. However, the demand was not all one way last week, with the NZD under considerable pressure immediately following the weak NZ employment numbers. The pair remains right on the NZD resistance (AUD support ) levels, and a consolidated break of this would open up the way for further NZD appreciation. This would appear to be a step too far this week in the absence of any major Australian economic news, and just the NZ retail sales numbers on Thursday to provide a focus. Whilst the RBA leave the option open for further easing to the cash rate, the NZ dollar is likely to see demand against the AUD. Further appreciation from current levels should prove harder fought than its previous gains.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
NZD/AUD .8150 .7980 .8180 .8072 - .8168
AUD/NZD 1.2270 1.2225 1.2530 1.2243 - 1.2389

Friday 8th February 2:36PM (NZT)- Update
It has been a very interesting week for this pair, with significant economic news on both sides of Tasman. The break of the resistance at .8050 (support 1.2420) has opened up the way for the pair to consolidate into a new range. Whilst the NZD has had its share of negative news, the Christchurch rebuild seems to be starting to provide an economic boost to support the wider economy. Unless uncertainly again balloons in Europe, it seems unlikely that the RBNZ will be changing the cash rate in the near term. This outlook contrasts that of the RBA, who left the door wide open for further stimulus if needed(read talk the AUD lower).  Whilst commodity prices have recovered somewhat from the 2012 lows, a lower peak in mining investment will drag on sentiment in the Australian economy. The current levels, and above, offer great value buying of AUD with NZ dollars. Patience will offer opportunities for those looking to buy NZD with AUD at lower levels in the coming months.
 
The current interbank midrate is:                                                  NZDAUD .8113               AUDNZD 1.2326
                                                                                         
The interbank range so far this week to date has been:                 NZDAUD .8067 - .8168    AUDNZD 1.2242 – 1.2397
Tuesday 5th February 6:10PM (NZT)
It has been a curious week for this pair as the NZ dollar has seen increased demand and broken through resistance to move to higher levels against the AUD. The move following the seemingly benign RBNZ statement last week was surprising to say the least. At its peak the NZD moved to .8140 (1.2285) and the .8150 (1.2270) level now constitutes resistance for the pair. As today’s RBA decision approached the market pared back expectations for an easing from around 40% to 15% and this saw the AUD regain some of its lost ground and the pair hovered at the former resistance of .8050 (1.2420) as the decision was released. The unchanged cash rate 3.00% was always likely with the improved global sentiment in the last month. The RBA have unsurprisingly left the door open for a further easing should conditions change in the coming months. The AUD has seen some renewed pressure following the announcement and the following sessions will prove crucial to the near term direction. Current levels will likely prove to have offered great value buying of AUD with NZD dollars over time.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
NZD/AUD .8092 .7950 .8150 .7973 - .8140
AUD/NZD 1.2357 1.2270 1.2580 1.2285 - 1.2542

Friday 1st February 12:15PM (NZT)
The NZ dollar has again outperformed the AUD for the most part this week. In the absence of top tier economic data in Australia, the RBNZ has provided the primary focus for this pair. Somewhat surprisingly, the market seems to taken the statement accompanying the unchanged monetary policy decision as having a bias towards tightening monetary policy (increasing the cash rate). To my mind it seems unlikely to eventuate in 2013, but with a chance of the easing from the RBA next Tuesday, the cash rate differentials may widen at any rate. Following today’s speech from the RBNZ Governor, the pair has now pushed to the extremes of what has recently been a comfortable trading range. These levels may well prove to have offered good value buying of AUD with NZD dollars over time. Expect the market to remain volatile ahead of the RBA decision on Tuesday.
 
The current interbank midrate is:                                                  NZDAUD .8080               AUDNZD 1.2542
                                                                                         
The interbank range so far this week to date has been:                 NZDAUD .7973 - .8080    AUDNZD 1.2376 – 1.2542
Tuesday 29th January 4:55PM (NZT)
This pair remains in an increasingly familiar range, although up towards upper New Zealand dollar end of it. The two central bank meetings in the coming weeks are unlikely to see any policy changes and therefore its seems likely that this current range will continue for some time yet. The RBNZ meeting on Thursday provides the focus for the week. We may see increasing periods of NZ dollar softness as investors look to take profit on the recent NZD gains ahead of the RBNZ statement accompanying what will be an unchanged cash rate decision. The RBA meeting next week presents a slightly less certain proposition. It is likely that the decision will leave the cash rate unchanged at 3.00%, but the risk is that we see a further easing at 2.75%.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
NZD/AUD .8010 .7850 .8050 .7956 - .8041
AUD/NZD 1.2485 1.2420 1.2740 1.2436 - 1.2569

Friday 25th January 3:55PM (NZT)
It has been a very interesting week for this pairing. The lower than expected Australian inflation number has provided the drive for the AUD to underperform pairing to move up towards the upper end of the range (lower end AUDNZD). The increased chances of an easing at the RBA meeting on the 5th has undermined AUD demand. An easing seems unlikely to my mind, given the increased global sentiment and solid numbers from China in 2013. This would indicate that the current levels offer good value buying of the AUD with NZ dollars. For those looking to move AUD into NZD, a staggering of transfers would be advisable at this time.
 
The current interbank midrate is:                                                  NZDAUD .8013               AUDNZD 1.2180
                                                                                         
The interbank range so far this week to date has been:                 NZDAUD .7938 - .8019    AUDNZD 1.2470 – 1.2598
Tuesday 22nd January 3:55PM (NZT)
This pair continues to trade a very small and familiar range. The .7900 - .8000  (1.2500 - 1.2660) range will likely contain the action again this week as the pair consolidates around what can be considered as fair value levels. Short term expectations from the central banks have not altered materially in the last few weeks, even after the low NZ inflation number last week. This week’s focus is squarely placed on Wednesday’s Australian inflation number. Anything above the +.4% expectation would likely see the AUD outperform, as unlikely as it is. The RBNZ monetary policy announcement on Thursday next week will garner attention, but likely be of limited impact to the price action.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
NZD/AUD .7962 .7850 .8050 .7928 -.7988
AUD/NZD 1.2560 1.2420 1.2740 1.2518 - 1.2614

Tuesday 15th January 4:55PM (NZT)
This pair remains in what has become familiar territory of late. This pair remains a function of the cash rate expectations over the short to medium term, and the current rate is comfortable with the stable expectations of the RBNZ and easing bias for the RBA. Expect the recent .7900 - .8000 range to remain in place for the short term. The employment numbers in Australia on Thursday represent the main event risk for the week, with the NZ inflation number likely to be of limited impact.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
NZD/AUD .7967 .7850 .8050 .7940 - .7992
AUD/NZD 1.2552 1.2420 1.2740 1.2513 - 1.2595

Friday 21st December 2012 1:10PM (NZT)The NZ dollar has not been able to hold onto its considerable recent gains this week. As expected the pair did not last much over the .8000 (under 1.2500), and the pair has consolidated back down below that levels and looks far more comfortable. The weak Q3 NZ GDP number aided the move that was already well under way. In the short term expect the pair continue to trade at the mid to upper end of the wider .7800-.8000 (1.2500 – 1.22820) comfortable range. Anecdotal evidence is quite gloomy in the Australian economy, but the numbers continue to hold up. Whilst this is the case the NZD will continue to find ample supply in forays above .8000 (below 1.2500).
 
The current interbank midrate is:                                                  NZDAUD .7958               AUDNZD 1.2566
                                                                                         
The interbank range so far this week to date has been:                 NZDAUD .7950 - .8025    AUDNZD 1.2461 – 1.2579
Tuesday 18th December 2012 5:10PM (NZT)
The NZ dollar has continued to see demand over the last week and this has seen the pair push to the upper end of the NZD range. In the absence of any material economic news, the demand has simply been flow driven and was accentuated by lower levels of liquidity as we approach the end of the year. The RBA monetary policy meeting minutes have seen a little pressure placed on the NZD, as AUD demand perked up a little. Now the focus turns to the NZ current account tomorrow and 3rd quarter GDP numbers on Thursday. Current levels and above constitute great value buying of AUD.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
NZD/AUD .8006 .7850 .8050 .7964 - .8125
AUD/NZD 1.2491 1.2420 1.2740 1.2461 - 1.2557

Tuesday 11th December 2012 3:45PM (NZT)
The NZ dollar gained value against the Australian dollar last week. The balanced RBNZ monetary policy statement provided the driving force as offshore investors scrambled to exit “sold NZD” positions. This eased the NZD up towards the higher end of its recent trading range. Further appreciation for the NZD is not guaranteed, and certainly the resistance at .8000 (AUD 1.2500 support) should cap any further demand. The pair looks  good value buying of AUD with NZD at current levels.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
NZD/AUD .7972 .7800 .8000 .7866 - .7960
AUD/NZD 1.2544 1.2500 1.2820 1.2563 - 1.2713

Monday 3rd December 2012 4:52PM (NZT)
This pair saw another week of relatively tight ranges, with the majority of the lead being driven by moves in the wider market. The domestic focus returns this week, with both central banks in action and a myriad of top tier economic news due for release in Australia. The RBA announce monetary policy tomorrow and RBNZ on Thursday, with the RBA expected to ease the cash rate 25pts to 3.00%. There seems little chance of movement from the RBNZ, although some commentators have continued to talk about further policy accommodation. Australian GDP on Wednesday and employment numbers Thursday provide the wider focus for what will be a very interesting week. It would take some kind of materially surprising outcome to see the pair break from the wider .7800 - .8000 (1.2500 - 1.2820) range.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
NZD/AUD .7878 .7800 .8000 .7835 - .7894
AUD/NZD 1.2694 1.2500 1.2820 1.2668 - 1.2763

Tuesday 27th November 2012 4:42PM (NZT)
This pair has seen a very muted range over the last week, in the absence of any game changing economic data. This week will likely see a continuation of this directionless trade as the market readies itself for the respective central bank monetary policy announcements next week. Also in Australia next week we get the latest numbers on retail sales, building approvals, GDP and employment. By the end of next week the outlook should be much clearer for what is on the cards for this pair in the first quarter of 2013. Current levels look to offer reasonably fair value, and offer a good opportunity for the risk adverse ahead of next week.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
NZD/AUD .7849 .7800 .8000 .7834 - .7881
AUD/NZD 1.2740 1.2500 1.2820 1.2689 - 1.2765

Tuesday 20th November 2012 3:56 PM (NZT)
The NZ dollar saw further pressure from the AUD following last week’s poor Q3 NZ retail sales numbers. The market moved to increase the odds of a cut to the NZ cash rate from the RBNZ and the pair adjusted accordingly. This week has seen a return of the markets senses and the pair now sits comfortably back in it’s recent range. This sits comfortably with the NZ interest rate market that has not reversed the moves lower, that followed last week’s retail sales result. The strong BNZ Services survey October result looks to have initiated the demand, and a scrambling to buy NZ dollars has ensued. Today’s RBA minutes revealed little of new insight, and the market remains weighted slightly towards a further easing to the Australian cash rate to 3.00% on December 6th. The Global Dairy Trade results could impact NZD demand in the offshore session today, and will be closely watched by the market.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
NZD/AUD .7866 .7800 .8000 .7784 - .7873
AUD/NZD 1.2713 1.2500 1.2820 1.2702 - 1.2847

Tuesday 13th November 2012 4:55 PM (NZT)
Last week was significant for this pair. The decision from the RBA to hold off easing their cash rate to 3.00%, was followed by the disappointing NZ employment numbers. The upshot was the NZ dollar was pressured down through what had recently become reasonably strong support levels. The .7800 (1.2820) level has held for the time being, but certainly a renewed air of vulnerability has returned to the NZ dollar. However, it is probable that the .7800 (1.2820)  level will cap further AUD appreciation. The prospect of an easing at the next RBA monetary policy meeting should provide enough of a cushion for the NZ dollar from the current levels. NZ retail sales numbers on Wednesday provide the data focus for the week, with a +.4% increase in activity expected. Buying NZD with AUD around current levels should prove worthwhile over time. This assuming expectations for a cut from the RBNZ do not irrationally increase in the short term.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
NZD/AUD .7848 .7800 .8000 .7809 - .7963
AUD/NZD 1.2742 1.2500 1.2820 1.2558 -1.2806

Entries previous to this have been deleted as there are time sensitive and lose value as time progresses. Please refer to our charts page for price action on a historical basis. The chart page can be seen here : http://www.directfx.co.nz/CurrencyChart.html