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NZD to USD Exchange Rate
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When converting New Zealand dollars (NZD) to US dollars (USD) with Direct FX, you will save a significant amount of money. Our wholesale currency exchange rates for money transfers, are significantly more competitive than bank foreign exchange rates. Being Australasian based, we specialise in knowing what drives NZD and USD currency conversion rates. NZD USD Overview: The US is New Zealand’s second largest export market and third in import terms. This had made the NZD to USD exchange rate a focus of our money transfer team for many years. The NZD to USD exchange rate can be volatile at times, especially during peaks and troughs of the cash rate cycles. The NZD is considered a “growth” currency, and the USD a “safe haven” currency. Our team will help you interpret market conditions when you make your currency transfer.
Current Official Cash Rates: Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ): 2.5% US Federal Reserve (FED): 0.0% to 0.25% NZD USD Weekly Updates: Back to FX Updates Friday 17th May 4:20PM (NZT) - Update The NZD has stayed on the back foot versus the USD this week, as broad USD strength continues to dominate the market. A bout of NZD buying after the NZ budget saw it recover somewhat, and it traded as high as 0.8264. But when a Fed official last night started talking about tapering off their quantitative easing programme, there was renewed demand for USD. This saw seen the currency trade back down to support around 0.8150. The NZD seemed to be trying to build a base at that level, but in the last few hours a wave of selling from US investment banks has pushed it through this level, and triggered a sharp move lower. It has now traded below 0.8100 and a test of support at 0.8050 looks to be on the cards. As we are coming to the end of the week there is potential for bounce, as those who bought USD earlier look to book profits, but there is little sign of that so far. The current interbank midrate is: NZDUSD .8103 The interbank range this week has been: NZDUSD .8090 - .8375 Tuesday 14th May 3:15PM (NZT) The NZD has seen a decent range against the USD the past week, falling from 0.8520 all the way to a recent low of 0.8230. The move has been driven by broad US dollar demand, and comes in the face of the strong NZ employment numbers. Softer than expected retail sales this morning has kept the pressure on the currency. Initial downside support comes in around 0.8160, and could well be tested this week if the USD strength across the board continues. The topside is protected by resistance around 0.8360. Domestic data out over the coming days will probably have limited impact as offshore forces drive this pair in the near term.
Friday 10th May 2:20PM (NZT) - Update It has been an interesting week for this pair, with some volatile trade and a decent range. After touching 0.8550 on Monday, the currency drifted lower into the middle of the week and the release of the financial stability report by the Reserve Bank. There was some small selling pressure as the report talked of an ‘overvalued’ NZD, but it was governor Wheeler’s talk of direct intervention that really got things going. The currency got pushed lower by the better part of 1 cent to trade just below 0.8360 before recovering a little. Sideways trade between 0.8360 and 0.8400 followed as the market shifted it’s focus to Thursdays employment numbers. A very strong reading, aided in part by demand for workers to help with the rebuild of Christchurch, saw the NZD dramatically recover all of it’s previous losses. And just to underpin the recovery, Australia printed solid employment numbers as well, which helped drag the currency higher again. It looked like that would probably be it for the week in terms of action, with the NZD settling into a range of 0.8440 -0.8480. But early this morning in late New York trade the USDJPY broke above key psychological resistance at 100.00. This triggered waves of USD buying against most other currencies. This US dollar demand saw the NZD back under pressure, making a fresh low on the week at 0.8348. It’s staged a small recovery from that low, but it looks like we can continue to expect some volatile price action. Its hard to imagine next week’s main economic releases, being house sales and retail sales, creating too much in the way of downside action for the currency. Support around 0.8340 should put a floor under any weakness, with the focus shifting back to the topside. The current interbank midrate is: NZDUSD .8381 The interbank range this week has been: NZDUSD .8348 - .8555 Tuesday 7th May 5:15PM (NZT) The NZD is treading water within the broad 0.8465 - 0.8575 range of the last two weeks. Offshore factors have been driving it back and forth within that range, and this theme will continue this week ahead of NZ employment data on Thursday. The employment number offers the biggest risk for the NZD this week. A very soft number could easily catch the investor market holding too many NZ dollars , and see a quick move down to 0.8400 initially. Below 0.8400 and the way opens up for a much bigger correction towards 0.8200. Expect plenty of buyers looking to pick the bottom of any pullback though, as the medium term outlook for the Kiwi remains firm relative to most other currencies.
Friday 3rd May 2:20PM (NZT) - Update The NZD started the week on a firm note and made solid early gains testing just above 0.8575 on a number of occasions. It failed to gain a footing above there though, and quickly lost ground on the back of a weaker dairy auction. Also a drag was a very heavy AUD that came under a lot of pressure against the GBP, EUR and JPY. There is some support for the NZD around 0.8460 which has contained the downside for now. A break low this level could see a move towards 0.8380 where more buyers should emerge. US employment data tonight has the potential to at some volatility while the domestic focus for next week will be 1st quarter employment numbers. The current interbank midrate is: NZDUSD .8505 The interbank range this week has been: NZDUSD .8469 -.8579 Tuesday 30th April 4:15PM (NZT) Broad based support for the NZD continues with the currency making a move above resistance at 0.8550 in the last 24 hours. If it can consolidate these gains it will open the way for a retest of recent highs at 0.8648, although a lot of that will depend on key releases out of the US later in the week. The positive reaction after the RBNZ policy statement last week has been underpinned by an increase in the cost of the Christchurch rebuild and the resulting reinsurance flows. So the NZD starts this week on a firm footing, and with the upside very much in focus. Expect dips to find support ahead of FED’s monetary policy announcement (Wednesday) and US employment data (Friday), which will set the tone heading into the following week.
Friday 26th April 4:45PM (NZT) - Update The NZ dollar started off with an air of vulnerability this week. However, following the seemingly benign RBNZ monetary policy announcement the demand for the NZ dollar has materially increased. So far the resistance at .8550 has managed to curb further appreciation, but this level does seem likely to come under some pressure. The focus from here turns to the US advanced 1st quarter GDP number later on today, with the market expecting a 3.1% rise in activity for the quarter. Amongst a busy next week in the US, The FED's monetary policy statement on Wednesday provides focus ahead of Friday's employment numbers. If the general market sentiment remains positive, expect the demand for NZ dollars to remain in place. The current interbank midrate is: NZDUSD .8530 The interbank range this week has been: NZDUSD .8369 - .8550 Tuesday 23rd April 6:15PM (NZT) This pair has traded in a relatively contained range over the last week, albeit with a slight bias to the downside for the for the NZ dollar. The weak global growth data is subtly undermining demand for so called growth assets like the NZ dollar via weak commodity prices. With today’s weaker than expected Chinese manufacturing data, expect this to remain a theme in the short term. Tempering moves to the down will be on-going demand for higher yielding interest rates that NZ offers. These opposing forces point towards the continuation of the familiar range trading trend for this pair.
Friday 19th April 4:02PM (NZT) - Update After bouncing off the lows seen early on Tuesday, this pair has traded in a relatively contained range. In the absence of local data of impact, demand for the NZ dollar has been driven predominantly by the offshore lead. Wider market risk aversion has tempered any real chances of appreciation and most of the week has been spent moving sideways in often direction-less trade. The RBNZ monetary policy statement next Wednesday will provide the primary focus for this pair ahead of the US GDP numbers next Friday. Further range trading can be expected ahead of these announcements. The current interbank midrate is: NZDUSD .8433 The interbank range this week has been: NZDUSD .8387 - .8577 Tuesday 16th April 4:42PM (NZT) Up until the offshore session on Friday last week the NZ dollar had outperformed the US dollar. However, in the opening sessions of this week we have seen a reversing of much of the NZD appreciation. The release of weak US and Chinese economic data, coupled with the disturbing terror events in Boston, has increased the safe haven demand for the US dollar. The pair has now consolidated off the lows set this morning, and the immediate direction remains unclear. Certainly events in the US will continue to dominate headlines in the short term. In any event the pair now looks to be at more comfortable levels than it was last week. Consolidation in the precious metals markets will stabilise the FX markets after yesterday's dramatic pull back in prices. If the metals pricing remains vulnerable, the demand for the US dollar will continue to increase and keep the NZD under subsequent pressure.
Friday 12th April 2:02PM (NZT) - Update This week has seen the NZ dollar push higher against the US dollar without respite. As we have seen periodically over the last couple of years, seemingly self fulfilling momentum can drive NZ dollar demand. Offshore demand for NZ interest rates, re-insurance flows for Christchurch earthquake pay outs and improved sentiment all will have played a part in this move. Resistance levels have been burst through in the process, and it begs the question of how much further this move can extend. Targeting levels is sound practice in markets like this for those looking to transfers funds. If previous moves such as these are any guide, the gained ground can be easily given back by the NZ dollar and trying to predict turning points can often prove futile. The US data later today will provide interest to finish the week. Any push back higher in US interest rates would see renewed demand for US dollars, and have a potential temper the demand for the NZD. The current interbank midrate is: NZDUSD .8630 The interbank range this week has been: NZDUSD .8408 - .8669 Tuesday 9th April 4:51PM (NZT) This pair has consolidated through topside resistance levels over the last week. While the wider market lead has been mixed, the latent demand for the NZ dollar has remained in place. The US dollar has seen pressure as longer term US interest rates moved lower alongside the weak US economic data. Expect further headway to be harder fought for the NZ dollar, as the pair looks to establish a new range around the current elevated levels. With the countering factors of lower levels of expected global economic activity, and the ongoing, and increased levels of central bank intervention, range trading can be expected for this pair in the short term at least.
Friday 5th April 4:28PM (NZT) - Update This week has seen this pair trade with choppy price action within a reasonably contained range. The increasingly vulnerable resistance at .8400 finally was broken as large sell GBP buy NZD flows coupled with record dairy prices to push the NZD higher across the board. Since then the NZD has been a bystander as wider market issues have dominated. This pair remains at elevated levels ahead of what will be an interesting US employment number later today. Whilst the NZD looks elevated, it seems unlikely that we will see any material weakness in the short term. Expect to see the US economic news dominate this pair next week, with limited NZ data on offer once again. The current interbank midrate is: NZDUSD .8403 The interbank range this week has been: NZDUSD .8354 - .8446 Tuesday 2th April 4:00PM (NZT) This pair has traded a relatively tight range throughout the Easter period. Resistance at .8350 was finally ground down, and further resistance at .8400 has curbed further appreciation for the NZ dollar for the time being at least. In the absence of any economic news in NZ this week, expect the lead to come from developments in the US. The primary focus for the week being Friday's US employment numbers. Current levels offer relatively good value buying of US dollars with NZD. However, the longer the pair remains close to resistance at .8400, the more vulnerable that resistance will be.
Tuesday 26th March 4:10PM (NZT) The NZ dollar saw some strong appreciation over the US dollar last week. Strong Fonterra GDT auction results, the bonanza NZ GDP and a higher Australian dollar, all helped the NZ dollar appreciate. The pair remains stalled around .8350 resistance. This level is the upper end of the recent range and whether or not the pair can consolidate through this level will dictate direction in the short term. Current levels offer good value buying of US dollars from a risk reward perspective. With only the ANZ business confidence survey in NZ this week, the lead will likely come from the US influence. Durable good sales, consumer confidence, and home sales numbers will provide focus. If resistance at .8350 does break, further appreciation from current levels should prove hard fought for the NZ dollar.
Friday 22nd March February 4:15PM (NZT) - Update This pair has been contained by its recent month long .8150 - .8350 range this week. There was a distinct lack of volatility ahead of yesterday’s strong NZ GDP number. The price action was a little strange, as after an initiate lunge higher the pair consolidated at levels just 20pts higher than prior to the release. The makeup of the GDP number points towards a bit of an aberration and the Australasian market did not get too enthused. However, coupled with solid Chinese manufacturing numbers, and the survival of Australian PM Gillard in a leadership vote, the Australasian pairs stormed higher in the London session overnight to set the weeks highs. Expect resistance above current levels to temper further appreciation from the NZD in the short term at least, with the majority of next week's focus coming from news in the US. The current interbank midrate is: NZDUSD .8320 The interbank range this week has been: NZDUSD .8191 - .8340 Tuesday 19th March 3:58PM (NZT) This pair remains trapped within its recent .8150 - .8350 range. The NZD saw increased pressure following the RBNZ monetary policy statement, but this pressure could not be sustained as the USD dollar gave up some of its recently gained ground across the board. This week is likely to see continued price action within the recent range. The NZ GDP numbers provide an obvious domestic focus in NZ on Thursday. In the US, the FED's monetary policy announcement will take centre stage on Wednesday. Expect the FED to maintain their "easy money" rhetoric in what will likely be an effort to curb any further USD appreciation in the short term at least. The strong performance of the AUD will be of support to the NZ dollar if it continues to consolidate at the current higher levels.
Friday 15th March February 4:15PM (NZT) - Update This pair remains well contained by its recent and increasingly familiar .8150 -.8350 range. The NZD saw increased pressure following the RBNZ monetary policy statement. However, the pair has recouped a good portion of its losses as USD demand has continued to show increasing fatigue. The broad based USD pull back has cushioned what could have been a more substantial pull back for this pair. Expect the current range to contain the price action in the short term. With longer term US interest rates establishing themselves a new higher levels, expect further NZD appreciation to be harder fought in the coming week. The current interbank midrate is: NZDUSD .8208 The interbank range this week has been: NZDUSD .8171 - .8286 Monday 11th March 4:01PM (NZT) This pair saw interesting price action last week. The NZD saw increased demand throughout the belly of the week following positive news offshore and the release of the latest GDT auction results. However, in the approach to Friday's employment numbers, the demand for US dollars returned and then accelerated as the strong US employment market numbers came to light. This week has started with pressure on the NZD continuing, and the target will be support at .8150, if the increased USD demand persists. Thursdays RBNZ news will dominate the domestic focus, but expect limited impact from the likely unchanged policy decision. The US focus comes from monthly retail sales, inflation and consumer sentiment numbers. If the support level holds, expect further range trading in the short term, albeit with a bias towards the strengthening of the US dollar.
Friday 8th March February 4:00PM (NZT) - Update After seeing initial pressure from the resurgent US dollar this week, the NZD has pared its losses and the pair has consolidated at what seem to be increasingly comfortable levels. Certainly the GDT auction price jump in dairy prices came to the aid of the NZD, and coupled with the record high equity market prices has provided support. The US dollar does seem to have seen increasing latent demand in the last couple of weeks, and this should curb any material upside for the NZD. These factors point towards a continuation of the recent range trading in the coming sessions. US employment numbers later on today provide an important focus for the short term. The current interbank midrate is: NZDUSD .8273 The interbank range this week has been: NZDUSD .8194 - .8337 Tuesday 5th March 4:53PM (NZT) The NZD has seen periods of further pressure from the US dollar. However, with the FED rhetoric pointing towards ongoing stimulus beyond the end of 2013, any material weakening of the NZ dollar maybe some time off yet. Support at .8250 finally gave way, but the pair has not been able to consolidate into a lower range. The wider .8100 - .8500 range that has been seen for the last 6 months or so remains in place. Expect the AUD to provide the lead in the coming week ahead of next Thursday's RBNZ monetary policy statement. In the absence of any surprises from the various central bank meetings this week, the .8150 - .8350 range should contain the week's price action.
Friday 1st March February 4:33PM (NZT) - Update The NZ dollar has seen renewed pressure from the US dollar this week. The NZD was pushed to its lowest levels in over a month as numerous factors weighed against it. Increased risk aversion in the wider market, increasing concerns about the dry conditions in the North Island and comments from credit rating agency S&P have outweighed strong business confidence numbers to push the NZD lower. Consolidation through the support at .8250 would open up the way for another leg lower, and this would most likely be coupled with wider market US dollar demand. The focus is entirely in the US next week, in the absence of any scheduled news in NZ. The current interbank midrate is: NZDUSD .8268 The interbank range this week has been: NZDUSD .8232 - .8413 Tuesday 26th February 3:53PM (NZT) After a brief attempt through resistance at .8450 last week, the NZD saw renewed pressure from the US dollar. This came as comments from RBNZ Governor Wheeler about the high level of the NZ dollar rattled NZD investor confidence. However, the pull bank has not been sharp, but the pair looks more comfortable than it did as it approached .8500. Wider market sentiment remains soft as the Italian elections undermines the markets confidence. Further investigations towards the lower end of the range cannot be ruled out in the current environment. Expect initial support around the current levels, ahead of more robust support at the .8250 level.
Friday 22nd February 4:36PM (NZT)- Update It has been an interesting week for this pair. The NZD has failed to consolidate its break through resistance at .8450, and has spent most of the week under some pressure from the US dollar. Various factors are at play, but the timely "verbal intervention" from RBNZ Governor Wheeler certainly provided the most impetus for the NZD weakness. General market risk aversion, and reasonably strong US data have ensured the USD took back some of it recently taken ground. The pair now sees itself back in somewhat familiar territory, and further out performance by the USD should prove harder fought from the current levels. The current interbank midrate is: NZDUSD .8374 The interbank range this week has been: NZDUSD .8321 - .8515 Tuesday 19th February 3:50PM (NZT) The NZ dollar broke through to make brief 18 months highs against the US dollar last week. At times the demand for the NZD was significant, especially following the materially stronger than expected 4th quarter NZ retail sales numbers. However, the economic data was buoyant in the US also, and with longer term interest rates consolidating at higher levels, the US dollar ground back to push the NZD back into more familiar territory to finish the week. This week sees the NZD remain towards the upper end of recent ranges. Tomorrow’s speech from RBNZ Governor Wheeler provides the highlight for the week in NZ. In the US the FED's meeting minutes will garner attention, alongside the usual host of other releases. Potentially this pair could become a little range bound around the current levels, with the NZD likely to find further gains through last week's highs more hard fought than its previous appreciation.
Friday 15th February 6:36PM (NZT)- Update It has been another week of NZ dollar appreciation over the USD dollar. With an absence of top tier economic data until today, and only negligible pullbacks throughout the week, the demand for NZ dollars has been pretty constant. Today's strong NZ retail sales numbers provided a further boost to the NZD value. Given the pair looks to be consolidating through resistance levels around .8450, further appreciation can not be ruled out in the short term. Given the elevated levels levels at which the pair now finds itself, the momentum will likely slow in the coming sessions.
Tuesday 12th February 5:50PM (NZT) Last week saw the pair continue to trade within it's recently familiar .8300 - .85000 range. The NZD did look vulnerable for most of the week, and the lows were seen following the weak NZ employment numbers. However, as has been the theme so far in 2013, the NZD saw latent demand emerge into the softness and this has again pushed the pair back from the .8300 support. This level remains the target in the near term, especially with lower demand for AUD and EUR weighing on the NZD.
Friday 5th February 6:10PM (NZT)-UPDATE 1:10 PM (NZT) It has been an interesting week so far for this pair. The start of the week saw the NZD again in hot demand. The pair pushed resistance levels between .8450-.8490 and the resistance finally curbed the NZD appreciation. Yesterday’s horrible NZ employment numbers definitely started a reversal of fortunes. The momentum was added to by sobering Australian employment numbers, and pressure on the EURO in the offshore session. Support at the .8300 level has held for now, and profit taking looks to have lifted the NZD back from the mornings lows. The US trade balance later on today provides the final domestic focus for the pair this week. Next week sees the focus come from the respective US and NZ retail sales numbers, as well as the latest consumer sentiment data in the States. In the short term the pair remains in somewhat familiar territory, and the pair looks more comfortable have pulled back from the elevated highs earlier in the week. The support around the .8300 level and just below remains the near term target should further NZD weakness be seen. The current interbank midrate is: NZDUSD .8340 The interbank range so far this week to date has been: NZDUSD .8300 - .8485 Tuesday 5th February 6:10PM (NZT) Last week’s price action for this pair was curious to say the least. The NZ dollar saw some decent pressure in the approach to the RBNZ monetary policy announcement. To my mind the statement accompanying the expected unchanged decision was unsurprising and benign. However, the subsequent reaction, especially in offshore markets was anything but benign. The demand for the NZ dollar was significant, and was only slowed somewhat at the resistance between .8450 and .8500. So again the pair is at levels that offer good value buying of USD with NZ dollars. Of note has been the move high in US longer term interest rates. Overtime this should translate to increased demand for US dollars.
Friday 1st February 12:15PM (NZT) It has been an interesting, and somewhat surprising week for this pair. The NZD (along with the AUD) has seen periods of increased weakness, and especially for the NZD, these came ahead of the RBNZ monetary policy announcement. There appeared to be little of surprise in the RBNZ statement accompanying the unchanged monetary policy decision. The increased demand seen following the statement has been sharp to say the least. Chatter in offshore markets had suggested there was a risk of an easing from the RBNZ, and this would explain the knee jerk reaction to the balanced statement. There remains little chance of a change to the record low 2.50% cash rate in NZ in 2013. The US influence has not impacted materially so far this week. The employment numbers later on today could well chance this and provide the primary focus in the short term. Today’s seemingly benign speech from RBNZ Governor Wheeler has seen further increased demand for the NZD and the pair is pushing the week’s highs as it approached the resistance at .8450. It appears the speech’s lack of reference to the “overvalued” NZD was the impetus for the increased demand. Current levels offer good value buying of US dollars with NZD. The current interbank midrate is: NZDUSD .8422 The interbank range so far this week to date has been: NZDUSD .8284 - .8423 Tuesday 29th January 4:55PM (NZT) This pair continues to trade within a fair contained range. The inability of the pair to break through the resistance at .8450 exposes some vulnerability of the NZ dollar in the current environment. The improving global sentiment is being led by improving stability in Europe. The corresponding increase in longer end interest rates in the larger developed nations should start to undermine NZ dollar demand. In the near term the central bank focus in the US and NZ will provide the primary focus. No changes are expected from either central bank, but their rhetoric will be closely monitored. Expect the .8250 - .8450 range trading to continue this week, but the US GDP and employment numbers add a little to the potential for volatility.
Friday 25th January 12:05PM (NZT)-UPDATE This pair continues to be contained by relatively tight weekly ranges. The NZD undoubtedly sees latent demand on any period of weakness and this remains attributable to the relative high levels of yields from the NZ government bonds. However, with the equity markets at 5-6 year highs, the inability of the NZD to forge new ground through the .8450 resistance is interesting. The momentum has waned and next week will likely prove crucial to direction in the short term. The RBNZ monetary policy announcement next week provides the local focus , but the bulk of the direction will come from the flora of economic data due for release in the US. With the AUD looking vulnerable , there appears to bias to the downside from current levels, but do not expect a sharp correction lower in the short term. The current interbank midrate is: The interbank range so far this week to date has been: NZDUSD .8341 - .8440 Tuesday 22nd January 3:55PM (NZT) This pair remains stuck in a relatively tight range. The lower than expected inflation number last week saw the NZD sell off to the lows before recovering and consolidating around current levels. The fact that stock markets have risen to fresh five year highs and the NZ dollar is struggling to forge higher ground, points toward waning momentum and increasing odds of a corrective move lower. In an absence of local New Zealand economic news this week, the focus will come from the US. Housing numbers later today, and on Friday provide the focus as we build into next week and the respective central bank monetary policy announcements.
Tuesday 15th January 4:55PM (NZT) The NZD has seen periods of strong demand against the USD since the start of 2013. So far the resistance at .8450 has held, but the longer the pair remains at elevated levels the more pressure will build on that resistance. Today’s NZIER quarterly survey again boosted sentiment for the NZ dollar and the next 24 hours will be interesting for the short term direction of this pair. NZ inflation numbers on Friday should be of limited impact. Given the wider markets surprisingly positive start to the year, current levels may well prove to have offered good value buying of USD over time.
Friday 21st December 2012 12:10PM (NZT) -Update As anticipated, the NZ dollar was unable to maintain its upward momentum this week. It large rise over the last couple of weeks looked to be “flow” driven and once that demand was satisfied the US dollar has seen demand re-emerge , and it has steadily taken ground back from the NZD. The Q3 NZ GDP number has helped ease the NZD lower and the stronger than expected US data from overnight should keep the pressure on. The next couple of weeks will likely see varied price action with holiday market conditions predominating. Obviously the fiscal negotiations in the US are at a point where a solution must surface in the next week. These talks will remain the focus for the remainder of 2012. Current levels offer good value buying of US dollars with NZD. The current interbank midrate is: NZDUSD .8340 The interbank range so far this week to date has been: NZDUSD .8325 - .8469 Tuesday 18th December 2012 5:10PM (NZT) Once the pair broke through resistance at .8350 early last week, the way was eased for sharp appreciation higher towards resistance at .8480. However the momentum has now waned, and there has been a period of consolidation through the last few sessions. The fiscal concerns in the US have all but passed now as negotiations have seemed easier in the last few days. The 3rd quarter GDP number in NZ on Thursday also may provide a reminder of the softness of the economy through that period. Expect further gains from current levels to prove far harder fought than previous ground. US bond yields ( bond interest rates) are also moving higher in the last few days and this should garner support for the US dollar over time.
Tuesday 11th December 2012 3:45PM (NZT) The NZ dollar outperformed the US dollar last week. Following the balanced RBNZ monetary policy statement, investors positioned for a statement with an interest rate easing bias scrambled to cover their “sold NZD” positions. This boosted demand and saw the pair break the initial resistance at .8250 and flirt with the close by .8350 level. This .8350 remains the key level for immediate direction. A break of this level would indicate a continuation of the NZ dollar appreciation. Whatever the eventuality, further gains for the NZ dollar should be harder fought from the current levels. Uncertainty remains high in the wider market, but the prospect of further US FED policy accommodation is subduing US dollar demand for the time being.
Monday 3rd December 2012 4:52PM (NZT) This pair saw a somewhat contained range again last week. A mixture of positive and negative news meaning that the opposing moves provided somewhat direction less trade. With the prospect of the RBNZ meeting on Thursday, and the likelihood of an interest rate cut from the RBA, expect topside moves to be limited for the NZ dollar. Last week’s break of resistance at .8250 was brief, and consolidation through this level would be required to open up the way for a clear move higher. A lack of progress on the fiscal talks in the US will favour the US dollar this week, and this trend could accelerate the longer the negotiations are forced to go on. The RBNZ are unlikely to ease the cash rate on Thursday, but the statement will be closely watched. Expect much of the lead to come from the performance of the AUD this week.
Tuesday 27th November 2012 4:42PM (NZT) The NZDUSD pair remains in what has become very familiar territory. Much of last week saw moribund trade as the markets stagnated while waiting for news on the Greek debt deal, and progress on the fiscal negotiations in the US. The offshore session on Friday provided the action, when risk aversion was swept aside and the NZD saw strong demand. However, after touching the resistance at .8250 the momentum was lost. As yet, not even the Greek debt deal announcement has been enough to pressure this resistance level, but if demand lifts for the EURO, the NZD will likely have another swing up towards this resistance. With only NZ business confidence numbers of domestic focus this week, expect the lead to come from the US fiscal developments, and the GDP number on Thursday in the US.
Tuesday 20th November 2012 3:56 PM (NZT) The NZ dollar has had a mixed last week against the USD. The pressure really came on following the disastrous 3rd quarter NZ retail sales number. However, the recovery in sentiment in the offshore session on Friday has seen some scrambling to cover sold NZD positions. This increased NZ dollar demand has pushed the pair back into familiar territory. Yesterday’s demonstrably stronger October Services number in a survey from the BNZ illustrates that the Q3 weakness may just have been a speed bump in the economic recovery. There is little of material economic data for the remainder of this week in NZ, but tomorrow’s Global Dairy Trade auction results will be closely watched. These auction results affect international investor demand for New Zealand dollars, and can therefore affect price action in the short term. Assuming that the positive rhetoric on the US fiscal situation can be backed up in concrete progress towards a deal (be sceptical), the US dollar may see some further pressure in the short term. Expect the upper levels of the recent range between .8250 - .8300 to provide ample resistance should this current positive sentiment continue.
Tuesday 13th November 2012 4:55 PM (NZT) Last week was an interesting one for this pair. Following the US election equity markets saw periods of intense pressure and this weighed on demand for the NZ dollar. But the defining moment for the week was the release of the horrible NZ employment numbers. These lead to a dramatic fall in demand for the NZD that pushed the pair below the support at .8150 for a time. However, with the situation in Europe looking a little more positive the wider market sentiment has picked the NZD off the lows for the time being. Expect further appreciation for the NZD to be hard fought this week, and for the next few. The US fiscal situation means risk aversion should be the sentiment default and this should underpin demand for the US dollar. Initial support will again come at .8150, and then further below at .8100.
Entries previous to this have been deleted as there are time sensitive and lose value as time progresses. Please refer to our charts page for price action on a historical basis. The chart page can be seen here : http://www.directfx.co.nz/CurrencyChart.html |
