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AUD to USD Exchange Rate

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When converting Australian dollars (AUD) to US dollars (USD), or USD to AUD, by exchanging via Direct FX, you will save a significant amount of money. Our wholesale currency exchange rates for money transfers are significantly more competitive than bank foreign exchange rates. Being Australasian based, we specialise in knowing what drives AUD and USD currency conversion rates.

AUD to USD Overview:The Australian dollar has become the barometer for global growth since the year 2000. Its appreciation against the US dollar is closely linked to commodities market conditions as the emerging markets in Asia develop. Central Bank diversification out of USD now means there is less ongoing support for the USD, as the world’s financial power slowly transfers from the United States.
 
Historical Ranges: 1 year  5 years 10 years 
AUD/USD .7159 - .7942 .6826 - 1.0161 .6006 - 1.1078

Current Official Cash Rates:
Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA): 1.50%         US Federal Reserve (FED): 1.00% to 1.25%

AUD USD Weekly Updates:                                                                                 Back to FX Updates
Tuesday 25th July 1:00pm(NZT)

Most of last week was spent consolidating the Australian dollar’s recent gains against the USD. Immediate support for the pair is seen around 0.7870 while the recent cycle highs around 0.7988 provide the first level of resistance. These are reasonably lofty levels for the AUD and tomorrow’s Australian inflation data will likely be key in deciding whether or not the rally can continue. This week from the US we have the FOMC statement, which shouldn’t provide and major surprises, along with along with Durable Goods order and Advance GDP.

  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
AUD/USD 0.7925 0.7870 0.7990 0.7787 - 0.7985

Friday 21th July 1:00pm(NZT)
It’s been another week of solid gains for the Australian dollar against the USD. Broad based USD weakness has combined with positive Australian data to see the pair briefly attempt to attack the psychological important 0.8000 level. It was short lived however and it seems that may be a step too far too soon for the Aussie. The pair is currently consolidating around the 0.7950 level and it may well try to attack 0.8000 again, but there are signs that momentum is starting to wane on the entire rally and as such the AUD should find further gains much harder work. That’s not to say the rally is over by any means, but we are approaching levels that speculative sellers will start to find attractive, and as such there should be much more two way business on any further cracks higher.
The current interbank midrate is:    AUDUSD 0.7947

The interbank range this week has been:    AUDUSD 0.7735 - 0.7985
Tuesday 18th July 1:00pm(NZT)

The Australian dollar has had another very strong week buoyed by positive economic data, increasing gold prices, and broad based weakness in the United States dollar. To be fair, it was largely USD declines on Friday night, after soft US inflation and retails sales data, that drove the AUDUSD up to the recent highs at 0.7838. There is major resistance around 0.7850 and so far that’s contained the move. The pair opened the week consolidation between 0.7800 and 0.7850 and it remains to be seen if the market is willing to have another crack at that major resistance level. Today’s RBA minutes will draw attention, then on Thursday we have employment data to digest.

  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
AUD/USD 0.7787 0.7725 0.7850 0.7603 - 0.7838
 
Friday 14th July 12:00pm(NZT)
It’s been a very positive week for the Australian dollar with strong gains seen against the United States dollar and most other currencies. The USD has seen some pressure on the back of dovish comments from Fed officials and the ongoing Trump-Russia drama, but a good portion of the AUDUSD rally has come from broad based AUD strength. I suspect this has been driven by changing interest rate expectations. Forecasters who had been suggesting the next rate move from the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) was likely to be an interest rate cut, are now revising their outlook to are more stable interest rate forecast and the currency is therefore getting revalued on that basis. The AUD is now however approaching an area of resistance that will make further gains much hard to  come by. For the past 12 months or so the 0.7750 - 0.7775 area has capped any periods of strength it should provide a tough barrier this time as well. Those looking to purchase USD should take advantage of this move above 0.7700.
The current interbank midrate is:    AUDUSD 0.7732

The interbank range this week has been:    AUDUSD 0.7573 - 0.7740
Tuesday 11th July 1:00pm(NZT)

It’s been a week of sideways price action for the Australian dollar vs the USD. Trading has been contained between the tight parameters of 0.7570 and 0.7630. Even Friday’s key US employment data failed to break the deadlock and for the time being we can expect more of the same. There is little in the way of significant data set for release from Australia this week. On the US side of the equation we do have testimony from Janet Yellen to digest on Wednesday night, followed by inflation and retails sales data on Friday night.

  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
AUD/USD 0.7606 0.7570 0.7630 0.7572 - 0.7681

Friday 7th July 4:30pm(NZT)
The Australian dollar has had a softer tone this week dropping from 0.7694 on Monday to 0.7570 today. The more dovish tone from the RBA hasn’t helped but the AUD did look a little over extended at the end of last week. Data flows continue to be positive but US data will rule. Tonight’s US employment data will be closely watched for its impact on the USD.
The current interbank midrate is:    AUDUSD 0.7584

The interbank range this week has been:    AUDUSD 0.7572 - 0.7703
Tuesday 4th July 4:30pm(NZT)

The Australian dollar remains the “turnaround kid” as data continues to be positive, today's retail sales data was well ahead of expectations. Currently at 0.7680 the market awaits the RBA later this afternoon, immediate resistance at 0.7710 could be under threat.

  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
AUD/USD 0.7680 0.7550 0.7750 0.7578 - 0.7711

Friday 30th June 3:30pm(NZT)
The Australian dollar ends the week on a positive note trading at 0.7700 after a high at 0.7710 overnight. Next week US data will be critical for AUD direction, but for the time being there is no sign the recent rally is abating. Key resistance around 0.7750 is not far away however and that should provide a tough topside barrier.
The current interbank midrate is:    AUDUSD 0.7695

The interbank range this week has been:    AUDUSD 0.7545 - 0.7711
Tuesday 27th June 4:00pm(NZT)

The Australian dollar has made up good ground over the last week, is now at 0.7590 and looks set to push back into the 0.7620+ level over the next few days. Comments from the Chinese Premier in the past hour have also supported the AUD and underpinned our positive near term outlook.

  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
AUD/USD 0.7595 0.7550 0.7640 0.7536 - 0.7622

Tuesday 20th June 3:30pm(NZT)

The Australian dollar was knocked lower overnight after the Moody’s bank downgrade but is back around 0.7586. It looks established in a 0.7575-0.7635 range but the trend remains positive in the short term. Longer term the USD rate hikes will blunt AUD advances.

  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
AUD/USD 0.7591 0.7550 0.7640 0.7525 - 0.7635

Friday 16th June 8:45pm(NZT)
A stronger end to the week for the AUD buoyed by the positive jobs data ...now at  0.7594 after a high at 0.7634.... May have seen the end of AUD lows for a while but the stronger turn on the USD will subdue  AUD upside ….look for a 0.7560-0.7640 range into early next week..
The current interbank midrate is:    AUDUSD 0.7584

The interbank range this week has been:    AUDUSD 0.7520 - 0.7635
Tuesday 13th June 4:00pm(NZT)

The Australian dollar is currently holding solidly over the 0.7500 level.  Now at 0.7561 almost at last week’s 0.7565 high. Maintaining current levels will depend on data for jobs this week and of course the FOMC on Thursday.

  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
AUD/USD 0.7557 0.7500 0.7600 0.7466 - 0.7566

Thursday 8th June 4:00pm(NZT)
A week of mixed emotions for the AUD as after a low of 0.7420 on Monday saw a high of 0.7565 overnight on data that was not as bad as expected... is now back around 0.7546, expect consolidation at this level but with a Fed rate hike next week any failure to hold the 0.7500 handle will see the AUD threaten 0.7450….
The current interbank midrate is:    AUDUSD 0.7541

The interbank range this week has been:    AUDUSD 0.7373 - 0.7566
Tuesday 6th June 4:00pm(NZT)

After a high of 0.7497 yesterday the Australian dollar has been hit hard by the weaker Current account data and is now back at 0.7465. The RBA statement this afternoon has the potential to be market moving, but with a lower Q1 GDP result now expected tomorrow, the AUD now looks more on the back foot. Look for a move to the 0.7430 support level over the next day or so.

  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
AUD/USD 0.7468 0.7405 0.7470 0.7373 - 0.7497

Friday 2nd June 4:45pm(NZT)
The Australian dollar ends the week pretty beaten up, down at 0.7383 vs the USD after a 0.7474 high only 2 days ago. Next support is around 0.7340/50 then at 0.7300 would then expose 0.7285. Although the AUD is starting to look oversold, the tone is bearish and next Tuesday’s RBA meeting will be crucial.
The current interbank midrate is:    AUDUSD 0.7384

The interbank range this week has been:    AUDUSD 0.7373 - 0.7476
Tuesday 30th May 4:15pm(NZT)

The Australian dollar has been having a tough time as commodity prices continue to remain soft and China news has mostly been negative. Currently trading around 0.7425 with initial support at 0.7405, if broken an extension towards 0.7365 is likely. We look for consolidation within 0.7390-0.7460 range over the next couple of days ahead of Fridays NFP data.

  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
AUD/USD 0.7423 0.7405 0.7470 0.7419 - 0.7517

Friday 26th May 12:45pm(NZT)
The Australian dollar heads into the close of the week close to where it started against the USD. There have been two significant attempts to rally but both times the pair ran into resistance around 07515. Soft commodity prices and Moody’s downgrade of China have been key factors in the AUD’s inability to hold onto gains above 0.7500. Minor support around 0.7445 is key. A break below there will encourage further selling and a likely test of 0.7390. Tonight’s US data in the form of Core Durable Goods Orders and Preliminary GDP will likely be key  in determining if the pair can hold above 0.7445 or if a bigger pullback is likely to unfold.
The current interbank midrate is:    AUDUSD 0.7455

The interbank range this week has been:    AUDUSD 0.7407 - 0.7517
Tuesday 23rd May 4:15pm(NZT)

The Australian dollar continues to firm against the USD as the risk trade gains favour. It is now at 0.7495 and looks good to break through 0.7500 later today for a push to resistance at 0.7510, a break of which would expose 0.7550. 0.7470 initial support unlikely to be threatened over the next few days.

  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
AUD/USD 0.7485 0.7470 0.7510 0.7389 - 0.7498

Friday 19th May 4:15pm(NZT)
A good and bad week for the Australian dollar. Good that it broke back over 0.7400, bad that it couldn’t hold onto the 0.7450 level. Now at 0.7420 and looks soft, another bounce in the USD should push the AUD back under 0.7400.
The current interbank midrate is:    AUDUSD 0.7425

The interbank range this week has been:    AUDUSD 0.7371 - 0.7466
Tuesday 16th May 4:15pm(NZT)

The Australian dollar has broken back over 0.7400 USD, and now trades at 0.7414. Yesterday’s high at 0.7445 marks the first level of resistance. The overall tone however is still AUD negative given ongoing disappointing China data, look for moves toward 0.7450 to attract selling interest.

  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
AUD/USD 0.7407 0.7330 0.7450 0.7330 - 0.7446

Friday 12th May 4:15pm(NZT)
The Australian dollar found support at the 0.7330 level vs the US. It’s now back at 7382 but the 0.7400 level still provides a substantial barrier to further gains. We expect it to trade in the 0.7330-0.7400 range heading into next week, with the risks skewed to the downside.
The current interbank midrate is:    AUDUSD 0.7375

The interbank range this week has been:    AUDUSD 0.7330 - 0.7427
Tuesday 9th May 8:15pm(NZT)

The Australian dollar continues to be undermined by weaker commodity prices and poor Chinese data. After a high of 0.7545 last Wednesday the pair is now back at 0.7360 and it continues to look soft. The risk is for a move to the 0.7320/30 level over the next day or so.

  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
AUD/USD 0.7355 0.7330 0.7600 0.7356 - 0.7556

Friday 5th May 3:45pm(NZT)
The Australian dollar has been undermined by weaker commodity prices and poor Chinese data this week. It looks soft and oversold, however the trend remains down and good US payrolls data could see an extension of the down move towards 0.7330. While commodities continue to trade heavily it’s hard to see a significant AUD recovery.
The current interbank midrate is:    AUDUSD 0.7386

The interbank range this week has been:    AUDUSD 0.7383 - 0.7556
Tuesday 2nd May 7:15pm(NZT)
This pair has suffered as offshore investors sold the Australian on the move away from commodity currencies on the back of the Canadian trade tariffs. It made a low of 0.7438 last week but has now clawed back to the 0.7545 level, look for consolidation around current levels heading into Friday's US jobs data.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
AUD/USD 0.7541 0.7440 0.7600 0.7441 - 0.7563

Friday 21st April 11:40am(NZT)
Over the course of this week the Australian dollar has given back all the gains it made in the wake of last week’s super strong employment data. The pair traded over 0.7600 at the start of the week, but then made a low of 0.7490 yesterday. Broad weakness in the commodity complex has certainly weighed on the AUD but there is solid support around 0.7470 and we are looking for that to contain any periods of weakness over the coming days. Further range trading between that support and 0.7600 looks likely.
The current interbank midrate is:    AUDUSD 0.7520

The interbank range this week has been:    AUDUSD 0.7492 - 0.7610
Tuesday 18th April 7:15pm(NZT)
For much of last week the Australian dollar was losing ground to the USD. It was testing key support around 0.7475 early on Thursday morning when President Trump caught the market off guard with comments published that he likes a low interest rate policy and that the USD was too strong. This immediately saw the US dollar under pressure across the board. This boosted the AUD which then gained further support from the strong Australian employment data later in the day.  We would look for support around 0.7475 to continue to contain any potential periods of AUD weakness over the course of this week.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
AUD/USD 0.7557 0.7475 0.7600 0.7474 - 0.7610

Tuesday 11th April 4:15pm(NZT)
The Australian dollar as lost ground against the USD all week.  Now at 0.7506,  we expect support at 0.7500 to give way, targeting 0.7450 later this week. Aussie employment on Thursday if weak would threaten 0.7520.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
AUD/USD 0.7495 0.7450 0.7600 0.7477 - 0.7607
 
Friday 7th April 5:50pm(NZT)
The Australian dollar continues to lose ground against the USD. Now at 0.7528 and a good US jobs figure will see support at 0.7500 tested. A break would extend towards 0.7450. For the time being is seems there is little upside potential for the AUD on this cross.
The current interbank midrate is:    AUDUSD 0.7529

The interbank range this week has been:    AUDUSD 0.7518 - 0.7662
Tuesday 4th April 7:15pm(NZT)
The Australian dollar is currently at 0.7603 USD testing support at 0.7600 as the market awaits the RBA statement, a break of this level would target 0.7550 then 0.7490. The downside is favoured.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
AUD/USD 0.7602 0.7550 0.7700 0.7589 - 0.7680

Friday 31st March 1:00pm(NZT)
The Australian dollar made gains against the USD through the early stages of the week, but it failed to mount a solid test of the 0.7700 level and topped out at 0.7678. In the past 12 hours some renewed USD strength has turned the pair around and the AUD is now trading sub 0.7650 with a slight downside bias. There was little in the way of key data released from Australia this week but next week show prove more interesting with retails sales, the trade balance and the RBA rate meeting.
The current interbank midrate is:    AUDUSD 0.7641

The interbank range this week has been:    AUDUSD 0.7589 - 0.7680
Tuesday 28th March 4:15pm(NZT)
The Australian dollar has recovered slightly to now trade at 0.7630. Weaker base metal prices still pressure the AUD and any bounce in the USD would push the AUD back to the 0.7550 zone. There is little in the way of local data out this week so the market will continue to focus on broader movements in the USD and base metals.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
AUD/USD 0.7627 0.7600 0.7700 0.7605 - 0.7749

Friday 24th March 3:00pm(NZT)
The Australian dollar has been knocked by the fall-off in base metal prices dropping from 0.7748 to 0.7628 over the week. Remaining over the 0.7700 level for any length of time seems a big challenge for the AUD. Next stop is 0.7600 then 0.7550. It is also very USD dependent as we head into next week.
The current interbank midrate is:    AUDUSD 0.7635

The interbank range this week has been:    AUDUSD 0.7623 - 0.7749
Tuesday 21st March 4:15pm(NZT)
The Australian dollar looks good as it holds well above the 0.7700 old resistance level against the United States dollar. It’s now at 0.7720 after an overnight high of 0.7746 consolidation around current levels points to a push to the 0.7780 level, last seen in Nov 2016
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
AUD/USD 0.7710 0.7700 0.7780 0.7540 - 0.7747

Friday 17th March 4:00pm(NZT)
The Australian dollar bounced back from a low of 0.7532 to 0.7717 after the Fed meeting but dropped back to 0.7662 after the weaker Aussie jobs data . It is now at 0.7672 with the old resistance at 0.7700 forming a formidable barrier. We favour a move back towards 0.7725 next week.
The current interbank midrate is:    AUDUSD 0.7667

The interbank range this week has been:    AUDUSD 0.7506 - 0.7719
Tuesday 14th March 3:45pm(NZT)
The AUD is back on the recovery as the USD surge fades. Currently at 0.7560 after a 0.7490 low in the last 5 days. Resistance at 0.7600 level is solid and unlikely to see this broken ahead of the FOMC meeting. Given the US rate trend the USD is favoured.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
AUD/USD 0.7560 0.7535 0.7600 0.7493 - 0.7629
 
Friday 10th March 4:00pm(NZT)
The Australian dollar remains on the back foot against the USD dropping from a high of 0.7631 earlier in the week to a low of 0.7489. It is now back at 0.7517 but has struggled to hold the 0.7500 level. A fall below 0.7490 would target 0.7445, conversely any move over 0.7530 would most likely see an extension to the 0.7600 region where more AUD selling interest would emerge. We favour the downside ahead of the NFP tonight and FOMC meeting next week.
The current interbank midrate is:    AUDUSD 0.7519

The interbank range this week has been:    AUDUSD 0.7493 - 0.7627
Tuesday 7th March 3:45pm(NZT)
The Australian dollar continues to lose ground against the USD. After hitting a low of 0.7556 last week it is back at the 0.7590 level but is struggling to get back over 0.7600. With US data continuing to be supportive as well as a probable US rate hike next week look for a test of support at 0.7510 in the next few days. Good US jobs data on Friday may see an initial target of 0.7450.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
AUD/USD 0.7592 0.7510 0.7610 0.7544 - 0.7695

Friday 3rd March 4:15pm(NZT)
The Australian dollar struggled to hold over the 0.7700 level but this fight is now well over, with the AUD trading down at 0.7560 after getting knocked for 6 overnight. The iron ore and other commodity prices are underpinning the AUD but we favour more downside, given the USD looks to track higher. 0.7510 beckons next week with additional declines to the 0.7450 level now very possible.
The current interbank midrate is:    AUDUSD 0.7548

The interbank range this week has been:    AUDUSD 0.7544 - 0.7719
Tuesday 28th February 7:45pm(NZT)
The Australian dollar continues to struggle over the 0.7700 level. It broke over this level to a high of 0.7739 but failed to hold and is now back trading around 0.7680. Look for consolidation around 0.7650-0.7690 ahead of the Trump address and Friday’s US jobs data. The Aussie tone is now negative but a break of 0.7660 is required to confirm the downside risks.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
AUD/USD 0.7682 0.7665 0.7740 0.7664 - 0.7739

Friday 24th February 2:45pm(NZT)
The Australian dollar has spent the better part of the past three weeks trying to gain a foothold above the 0.7700 level to the United States dollar. Last night it stage another valiant attempt trading up to the highest level this year at 0.7740, before quickly pulling back to 0.7715. The move higher came on the back of broad based weakness in the USD and was quite impressive considering the AUD was under some pressure yesterday afternoon after local capital expenditure data disappointed. Continued strength in iron ore prices is helping to underpin the AUD and the key downside level to watch is now around 0.7665. Any break below there would be a negative signal and this would likely encourage further selling. While the currency holds above that level however, the risks remain skewed to further tests of the topside.
The current interbank midrate is:    AUDUSD 0.7709

The interbank range this week has been:    AUDUSD 0.7656 - 0.7739
Tuesday 21st February 6:45pm(NZT)
The Australian dollar continues to consolidate at higher levels against the United States dollar. It is still trading below the elusive resistance at 0.7700 but given the more positive data and supportive iron ore prices, a move back into the mid 0.7700 region is looking more likely.  The 0.7700/10 level is proving a tough nut to crack however and FOMC minutes this week may not help.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
AUD/USD 0.7668 0.7650 0.7710 0.7620 - 0.7728

Friday 17th February 4:30pm(NZT)
The Australian dollar has had a good week. After several attempts it  broke through the 0.7700 resistance level and traded to a high of 0.7730, although it’s is now back at 0.7695. Aussie fundamentals have improved but the AUD must stay above the 0.7700/10 level if a move on the 0.7780 level is to be attempted
The current interbank midrate is:    AUDUSD 0.7698

The interbank range this week has been:    AUDUSD 0.7620 - 0.7728
Tuesday 14th February 4:45pm(NZT)
The Australian dollar is now at 0.7665 having had a better few days against the USD. The 0.7688 level is proving a tough level to break but the better GDP forecasts and higher base metal prices have added confidence to AUD trading. Positive Chinese inflation data later today may boost AUD momentum, however changes in the USD situation carry more weight at the moment.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
AUD/USD 0.7672 0.7605 0.7710 0.7608 - 0.7688

Friday 10th February 6:30pm(NZT)
The Australian dollar is back at 0.7638 after drifting lower most of the week against the USD as the “Trump talk” takes its toll. The RBA news over this week has ended up having little major influence, but if its latest growth forecasts prove correct the Australian dollar should gain some momentum. We expect a retest of 0.7695 next week, but as always the more volatile USD will rule.
The current interbank midrate is:    AUDUSD 0.7654

The interbank range this week has been:    AUDUSD 0.7608 - 0.7695
Tuesday 7th February 4:45pm(NZT)
The Australian dollar is climbing back towards last week's high of 0.7695 against the USD and is currently around 0.7645. As with the NZD the US jobs data ended up having little effect on this cross and given no surprises from the RBA a retest of 0.7695 looks likely.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
AUD/USD 0.7644 0.7450 0.7695 0.7544 - 0.7695

Friday 3rd February 4:30pm(NZT)
The Australian dollar surged higher against the United States dollar on the better terms of trade figures, spiking to a high of 0.7695. It has since softened slightly and is now at 0.7643. US jobs data tonight will drive direction and a bullish figure will put the AUD on the back-foot, but next week's RBA statement has the power to surprise.
The current interbank midrate is:    AUDUSD 0.7642

The interbank range this week has been:    AUDUSD 0.7513 - 0.7663
Tuesday 31st January 4:45pm(NZT)
Currently the Australian dollar is around 0.7568 and continues with a softer tone after last week’s disappointing CPI data. Trading should be subdued this week as Chinese markets are closed for the majority of the week for the Chinese New Year holiday. The lower gold prices have also kept Australian dollar trading muted, but major support at 0.7450 is still far away, although any surprise by the US Fed tomorrow, or a major rise in Non-farm payrolls on Friday would place pressure back on the AUD.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
AUD/USD 0.7563 0.7450 0.7610 0.7513 - 0.7608

Friday 27th January 3:30pm(NZT)
Currently the Australian dollar is sitting at 0.7530 after being knocked by the CPI data earlier this week and the generally stronger USD trend. The sagging gold price has also not helped the Australian dollar over the last few days and if this afternoon's economic data releases (Q4 PPI & export/import price indexes) disappoint look for a decline towards the long term 0.7450 support next week.
The current interbank midrate is:    AUDUSD 0.7536

The interbank range this week has been:    AUDUSD 0.7517 - 0.7608
Tuesday 24th January 6:15pm(NZT)
Traded in a 0.7550-0.7588 range overnight and is now around 0.7590 on the softer USD .The Australian dollar is underpinned by the ongoing higher prices in the coal and iron ore prices  and economic data for Q4 and Q1 should continue to show improvement. 0.7600 is the next port of call on the upside but this is a major level that has proved elusive in the past. The Australian dollar story is still subservient to USD moves not helped by the AAA rating regrade threat overhang. Any break of 0.7600 needs to be sustained for gains to extend towards the 0.7700 area.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
AUD/USD 0.7576 0.7450 0.7640 0.7476 - 0.7608

Friday 20th January 1:30pm(NZT)
It’s been a choppy week for the Australian dollar but we head into the weekend trading just below the week's high vs the USD at 0.7562. Largely supportive economic data from Australia has helped underpin the AUD, but it’s really been broad movements in the United States dollar that have driven the pair. We did some USD strength yesterday and that drove the AUD down toward support around 0.7500. The recovery from that level overnight has been solid and that keeps the focus the topside and further potential gains in the near term. Australian inflation data will be closely watched next week as will the key US releases of GDP and Core Durable Goods Orders.
The current interbank midrate is:    AUDUSD 0.7562

The interbank range this week has been:    AUDUSD 0.7451 - 0.7570
Tuesday 17th January 2:15pm(NZT)
With much of the attention elsewhere around the weekend's Brexit stories of a hard Brexit speech from PM May this week, the Australian dollar is largely consolidating, albeit with a bullish bias at the start of the week. It traded down yesterday to a low of 0.7457 but the uptick in Aussie inflation, up 0.5% in December, provided some support and it opens this morning at 0.7475. The bounce from around the 0.7450 support level indicates that the downside is limited and retracements are now being seen as buying opportunities. A breach of resistance at 0.7525 would clear the way for further advances toward the 0.7700 region.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
AUD/USD 0.7471 0.7450 0.7520 0.7334 - 0.7519

Friday 13th January 6:30pm(NZT)
The Australian dollar led the advance against the USD, extending its advance up to 0.7518, with the pair erasing almost all of its December losses. The Australian dollar was backed once again by rising commodities, as there were no relevant macroeconomic releases in Asia. Currently at 0.7502 the immediate resistance is 0.7524, the December high with potential to extend towards the 0.7600 level…but the credit downgrade potential and any further China economic issues will weigh on the Aussie getting too far ahead.
The current interbank midrate is:    AUDUSD 0.7498

The interbank range this week has been:    AUDUSD 0.7290 - 0.7519
Tuesday 10th January 4:00pm(NZT)
The Australian dollar rose on the weaker USD overnight, from 0.7302 to a one month high of 0.7374. While the AUD benefited the most from the softer USD, it was also helped by ongoing gains in base metals. Now around 0.7360 we look for a push to the 0.7400 level over the next day or so. Data released at the beginning of the day showed that Australian Building Permits rebounded in November after sinking in October, while this afternoons release of retail sales figures much more disappointing. Technically, this cross has managed to break above a key technical level, the 50% retracement of its latest bearish run at 0.7340, this supports some further advances. Momentum does look to be fading however and resistance around the 0.7390 will need to be overcome to signal further gains are likely.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
AUD/USD 0.7374 0.7250 0.7400 0.7194 - 0.7374

Friday 23rd December 3:45am(NZT)
A continuation of recent momentum has seen the Australian dollar decline further against the US dollar in trade since Tuesday. Weakness in the key iron ore price has also been a driver this week. Focus for this move is on old lows near .7150 set in May this year. Look to the various US data drivers (headed by Nonfarm payrolls at the end of the first week of 2017), commodity pricing and risk sentiment for direction over the holiday period. Momentum remains strongly negative at present with rallies looking likely to attract selling in the .7280-7315 one.
The current interbank midrate is:    AUDUSD 0.7211

The interbank range this week has been:    AUDUSD 0.7198 - 0.7368
Tuesday 20th December 1:30pm(NZT)
The Australian dollar has continued to fall against the US dollar since our report on Friday. The move comes as the greenback continues to receive support after last week’s FOMC meeting. Further drivers have included falls in key $AUD sensitive commodity drivers and a more cautious stance towards the risk currencies this week. Focus for the week starts with today’s RBA minutes (we expect little reaction) and the various US data releases. Expect positioning and sentiment to be the key driver. We favour selling rallies at present.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
AUD/USD 0.7249 0.7145 0.7320 0.7244 - 0.7525

Friday 16th December 11:45am(NZT)
The Australian dollar has fallen sharply against the US dollar after yesterday’s US FOMC meeting. Highs this week were limited to second resistance at .7525 ahead of the meeting. Raised US rate projections for 2017 from the Fed saw the AUD lose almost 1.75c in trade at one point on its lows from the levels observed just prior to the meeting. US dollar sentiment will be the driver again next week. The RBA minutes on Tuesday should create a passing interest. We favour selling rallies towards new resistance around .7430 heading into next week.
The current interbank midrate is:    AUDUSD 0.7356

The interbank range this week has been:    AUDUSD 0.7339 - 0.7525
Tuesday 13th December 2:30pm(NZT)
The Australian dollar has lifted in trade against the US dollar since our report on Friday. Oil gains helped the commodity currencies post a solid start to trade this week, although overall US dollar weakness has also benefitted the AUD. First resistance is close-by around .7510; next resistance is seen around .7525 and then .7580. Momentum is mildly positive at present, although sentiment could change quickly given the busy US data calendar (including the FOMC on Thursday, AU time) and Thursday’s Australian employment numbers.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
AUD/USD 0.7495 0.7435 0.7510 0.7418 - 0.7507

Friday 9th December 11:15am(NZT)
The Australian dollar is sitting largely unchanged in trade against the US dollar since Tuesday. Highs just above .7500 were observed yesterday came prior to last night’s rally in the greenback and sharp fall in the Euro (after the ECB). Support has been seen over the week in the .7400/20 region, whilst on the topside the .7500/10 area should again invite fresh selling. Thursday (NZ time) is the key day to watch next week as we receive the US Fed interest rate decision and Australian employment data. For now the risks appear evenly balanced on the next move.
The current interbank midrate is:    AUDUSD 0.7458

The interbank range this week has been:    AUDUSD 0.7402 - 0.7507
Tuesday 6th December 2:30pm(NZT)
The Australian dollar has rallied in trade against the US dollar since our report on Thursday. The move comes on the back of an easing in the overall level of the greenback, particularly so in recent hours. Australian events and USD sentiment will dictate the next shift from here.  Particular focus is on the RBA this afternoon and Australian GDP tomorrow. We continue to think barring a prolonged slide in the USD that the broad .7525/80 zone should provide solid resistance this week if tested.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
AUD/USD 0.7463 0.7365 0.7500 0.7371 - 0.7497

Thursday 1st December 2:00pm(NZT)
The Australian dollar has fallen in trade against the US dollar since our commentary on Tuesday. All of the move has occurred from trade in recent hours and comes on the back of the poor AUD performance in an environment of a US dollar which was consolidating rather than appreciating. Sentiment around the Australian construction and building/property sector may have weighed on the AUD sentiment. Focus for the pair will move to Australian CAPEX (today) and retail data (tomorrow), although expect the US data to dominate tomorrow. First minor support is noted around .7360/65 although stronger support lies around and below .7300.
The current interbank midrate is:    AUDUSD 0.7387

The interbank range this week has been:    AUDUSD 0.7366 - 0.7497
Tuesday 29th November 3:30pm(NZT)
The Australian dollar has gained in trade against the US dollar since our report on Friday. The move reflects the move lower in the overall level of the greenback and observed strength in the key commodity currencies overnight. US data and appetite for the commodity currencies in the wake of the OPEC meeting decision will be the key drivers for the pair this week. We expect gains beyond the broad .7525/.7580 zone to be difficult to come by this week given the demand for the USD. Support below .7440 is seen around .7360/65.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
AUD/USD 0.7491 0.7440 0.7525 0.7366 - 0.7497

Friday 25th November 2:30pm(NZT)
The Australian dollar has recovered slightly in trade against the US dollar since our commentary on Tuesday. The move comes on the back of the reduction in transactional selling and improvement in many key commodity prices that has been seen during the week. Support to watch next week is from this week’s lows through to .7280. The weekly highs at .7445/50 is the first resistance to watch, and then .7495/.7505 beyond. Look for US data and sentiment around the dollar to dictate trade next week.
The current interbank midrate is:    AUDUSD 0.7408

The interbank range this week has been:    AUDUSD 0.7313 - 0.7444
Tuesday 22nd November 2:30pm(NZT)
The Australian dollar has continued to fall against the US dollar since our commentary on Friday. The pressure comes amidst talk of M&A selling in the AUD and an environment of a very strong USD. Declines were limited to ahead of 73c in trade yesterday and look extended to us in the short term. Look to US influences for direction this week (including the FOMC minutes on Thursday morning NZ time). Key support beyond the important .7280/.7310 zone is eyed at .7140/50.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
AUD/USD 0.7375 0.7305 0.7450 0.7313 - 0.7580

Friday 18th November 2:30pm(NZT)
The Australian dollar has fallen heavily against the US Dollar in trade this week. The move comes in an environment where the USD index (DXY) traded to fresh highs not seen in over 13.5 years. Falling key commodity prices and a dim market view of yesterday’s Australian employment data have also weighed. Look once again to the sentiment around the greenback for direction next week. Initial resistance is seen at .7450/60 and then .7500. Support below today’s lows looks distant in the .7280/.7305 zone. Momentum is heavy, although the move is extended.
The current interbank midrate is:    AUDUSD 0.7414

The interbank range this week has been:    AUDUSD 0.7398 - 0.7629
Tuesday 15th November 2:00pm(NZT)
The Australian dollar is presently largely unchanged in trade against the US Dollar since our commentary on Friday. Overnight lows of .7525 have been seen in the interim however, and come on the back of continued strength in the greenback. In focus this week is today’s RBA minutes and Thursday’s Australian employment data, whist in the US data flow and Fed talk continues all week. We have little immediate bias given the elevated volatility. First resistance is pegged around .7630, of which this move up looks capable of extending to.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
AUD/USD 0.7567 0.7520 0.7630 0.7525 - 0.7777

Friday 11th November 2:30pm(NZT)
The Australian dollar has had a volatile week of trade against the USD this week. The moves have reflected the sharp shift in sentiment towards the risk currencies that occurred as the market realised that the US election would not go the way that the polls had indicated. The Trump victory and risk-off selling and subsequent rebound in the greenback has seen the AUD lose over 2c from its highs (near .7780) to its lows. Look for USD sentiment to drive trade again next week. Australian employment numbers are due on Thursday. We favour buying USD on rallies above 77c at present.
The current interbank midrate is:    AUDUSD 0.7588

The interbank range this week has been:    AUDUSD 0.7572 - 0.7777
Tuesday 8th November 2:30pm(NZT)
The Australian dollar has continued to rally in trade against the USD since our report on Thursday. The move reflects the demand for risk currencies such as the AUD in anticipation of a Clinton victory in the US election tomorrow. Current polling indicates a tight race and volatility should remain high over the next 36 hours. Expect risk-off trade to dominate should Trump upset (AUD-). Given the highly uncertain nature of the outcome we prefer not to have a view, although note that the AUD has failed to maintain levels above 77c against the USD on all occasions over the last 6 months. Key resistance is at .7840.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
AUD/USD 0.7711 0.7650 0.7740 0.7598 - 0.7729

Thursday 3rd November 3:00pm(NZT)
The Australian dollar has lifted in trade against the USD this week, although continues to remain within recent ranges which has seen it fail to stabilize above 77c in recent months. Weakness in the greenback has driven this week’s small lift after local Australian leads failed to drive any material move (although the AUD saw reasonable gains after the RBA). In focus to close the week is tomorrow’s US data (employment) and the earlier Australian RBA MPS and retail sales. We see more trade within familiar ranges as being most likely over coming days.
The current interbank midrate is:    AUDUSD 0.7652

The interbank range this week has been:    AUDUSD 0.7561 - 0.7689
Tuesday 1st November 1:30pm(NZT)
The Australian dollar has lifted marginally against the USD since our commentary on Friday. Lows under .7560 were seen on Friday over the key US data, although selling of the greenback has allowed the AUD to retrace back above .7600 against the USD in recent trade. This week will busy for this pair. Chinese manufacturing data is due this afternoon, although focus will be on the RBA afterwards. Friday’s RBA monetary policy statement and Australian retail sales will also interest. Key US events include Wednesday’s FOMC statement and Friday’s employment data. We have little bias, while sellers in the .7710/35 region cap and trend-line support near .7550 (rising) holds.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
AUD/USD .7607 .7550 .7710 .7561 - .7708

Friday 28th October 3:00pm(NZT)
The Australian dollar has had a volatile week of trade against the USD although trades little changed from Tuesday’s levels currently. Highs around the .7710 level traded on Wednesday after the market reacted positively to better than expected headline inflation numbers although a firmer greenback and focus on the (softer) core inflation levels has seen the AUD slump in trade towards the end of the week. Focus for today is on the later US data whilst next week’s interest begins with the RBA on Tuesday. We lack any strong view heading into next week.
The current interbank midrate is:    AUDUSD 0.7586

The interbank range this week has been:    AUDUSD 0.7580 - 0.7706
Tuesday 25th October 3:00pm(NZT)
The Australian dollar has eased further against the USD since Friday. The move reflects the fallout from Thursday’s Australian employment data miss and the reduced present appeal for the commodity currencies as the greenback continues to post impressive gains. Look for direction this week to come from tomorrow’s important Q3 Australian inflation data and the hue of the US data throughout the week. Current momentum points to the downside as being more vulnerable for now targeting .7500/10.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
AUD/USD 0.7594 0.7580 0.7650 0.7588 - 0.7735

Friday 23rd October 2:30pm(NZT)
The Australian dollar has endured a volatile week against the USD this week. After being on a strong footing for much of the week which saw it trade go through key resistance to .7735 highs, the speculative market was caught on the wrong end of a poor Australian jobs report yesterday. This has seen the local unit fall over a full cent lower against the greenback. Critical to the next move will be Wednesday’s Australian inflation data. First minor support is nearby at .7620 and then .7580. Resistance to rallies may be seen near .7660 initially and then at the weekly highs. Yesterday’s large move clouds the immediate outlook for the AUD and should make buyers wary heading into next week’s inflation numbers.
The current interbank midrate is:    AUDUSD 0.7624

The interbank range this week has been:    AUDUSD 0.7557 - 0.7735
Tuesday 18th October 3:00pm(NZT)
The Australian dollar has moved higher against the greenback since our commentary on Friday. The move reflects the outperformance of the commodity currencies in the stronger USD environment in recent days after data and Fed speak largely conformed to expectations. In focus this week is today’s RBA minutes, although expect Thursday’s Australian employment data to be a critical driver should it miss consensus by a large margin. First support is now seen at .7580. Minor resistance is eyed around .7650 although far more important resistance lies in the .7695/.7710 zone.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
AUD/USD 0.7644 0.7580 0.7650 0.7508 - 0.7646

Friday 14th October 2:00pm(NZT)
The USD has continued to march higher in trade this week. The move reflects a continuation of the momentum which starting during last week’s reel of largely stronger than expected local data. This week so far has been dominated by Wednesday’s FOMC minutes which conformed to expectations by continuing to lend weight to the argument for a rate move in December. This is especially given the proximity of the next FOMC meeting to the US presidential election and lack of any signs of an overheating in the labour market. Data releases this week are mainly skewed towards tonight’s data (retail sales and Michigan consumer sentiment and Yellen speech), although so far we have had numbers on JOLTs job openings which fell sharply in August (-6.7%, a number which was well below expectations), jobless claims which remained flat, and NFIB small business optimism which eased last month as the series continued to stagnate ahead of the US election.

The current interbank midrate is:    AUDUSD .7566

The interbank range this week has been:    AUDUSD .7508 - .7626
Tuesday 11th October 2:00pm(NZT)
The Australian dollar has edged higher in trade against the USD since our report on Friday. Friday’s key US employment data was close enough to expectations to cause little concern, although a shift towards .7550 was seen. Australian data looks uninspiring this week so look to US events later in the week for direction. We have little bias on the week and expect quiet trade until Thursday mornings FOMC minutes. Initial support now lies at .7550 and selling is seen initially in the .7630/50 zone, although better resistance will lie at .7690/00.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
AUD/USD .7601 .7550 .7650 .7554 - .7689

Friday 7th October 2:30pm(NZT)
The Australian dollar has fallen against the greenback in trade this week. The declines have come on the back of what has been a good week for the incoming US economic indicators so far, although a reduction for the ‘risk/high yield’ currencies has also weighed. US data tonight will dictate how the week closes for the AUD, although for now the momentum points to further losses next week. This has us favouring selling rallies (first resistance is seen at .7640/50) for .7525/30 and .7475 in time, although a very weak US employment number would temper the view.
The current interbank midrate is:    AUDUSD .7580

The interbank range this week has been:    AUDUSD .7563 - .7691
Tuesday 4th October 3:00pm(NZT)
The Australian dollar has rallied against the greenback in trade since Friday. There have been few drivers since that commentary and the move reflects the decent support that has been seen for the commodity currencies so far this week. This afternoon has the potential to be a busy one for this pair with last week highs (.7710) through to .7735 looking to offer decent resistance. Look to the RBA statement for critical direction whilst later in the week it will be the turn of US economic indicators to drive the next move.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
AUD/USD .7681 .7590 .7710 .7591 - .7710

Friday 30th September 2:30pm(NZT)
The Australian dollar is trading at those levels seen in trade on Tuesday against the greenback currently. Highs were seen around .7710 in trade yesterday and came on the back of the rally in the commodity currencies after the strong surge that took place in the price of oil after the surprise news in Algeria of an OPEC production agreement. The break of the rising trend-line around .7655/60 this morning and 2.7c rally from the months lows (to yesterday’s highs) has us wary of further downside. Therefore we favour targeting rallies to buy USD next week, although the busy data calendar which includes the RBA (Tuesday) and US employment data (Friday) will add significant complication.
The current interbank midrate is:    AUDUSD 0.7626

The interbank range this week has been:    AUDUSD 0.7604 - 0.7710
Tuesday 27th September 3:00pm(NZT)
The Australian dollar is unchanged against the USD since Friday. There has been little fresh impetus for the market since our commentary which has seen trade contained within a ~.7600/50 range. The week is quiet in Australia so look to US data later in the week to influence trade. We continue to lack a bias and expect quiet trade for most of the week with a positive tone while .7600 holds (weak support). Initial resistance is eyed at .7675 (weak), although the much higher .7735/60 zone which has capped rallies since May is far more critical.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
AUD/USD 0.7635 0.7600 0.7675 0.7531 - 0.7674

Friday 23rd September 2:00pm(NZT)
The Australian dollar has rallied against the USD in trade this week. The move started earlier in the week on the back of a set of RBA minutes which failed to point to any urgent need for a further rate reduction. This continued yesterday after the US FOMC meeting which lowered the Fed’s projections for rate hikes next year (current rates were left on hold). US data and risk/commodity currency appetite look to be the key drivers during the week ahead. We lack a bias, although short term USD buyers could target resistance in the .7735/60 zone for orders. Key support is noted below .7450, although further (minor) support has developed around the .7520/30 area this week.
The current interbank midrate is:    AUDUSD 0.7638

The interbank range this week has been:    AUDUSD 0.7475 - 0.7674
Tuesday 20th September 2:00pm(NZT)
The Australian dollar has lifted against the USD since our report on Friday. Declines to around .7475 were seen after the stronger than expected US inflation data on Friday. However, a sharp reversal which developed yesterday saw the AUD rally almost a cent from its lows. Some of this move may be attributed to a slight shift announced yesterday in the objectives and framework for Australian monetary policy which look to allow the RBA more latitude on the inflation targeting timeframe (which could raise the hurdle for further rate cuts). Look to the RBA minutes this afternoon for initial direction prior to Wednesday’s (US time) important US FOMC decision.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
AUD/USD 0.7533 0.7470 0.7570 0.7443 - 0.7571

Friday 16th September 2:30pm(NZT)
The Australian dollar has eased against the USD since Tuesday, although sits well off its lows set ahead of .7440 currently. The week began poorly for the AUD as the risk currencies continued to slide into the middle of the week in a move which reflected the poor showing of global equity bourses. Focus to end the week will be on today’s US inflation data, whilst next week the RBA minutes on Tuesday is the first event to consider. We are unsure from here noting first selling at .7520/25 and .7570 beyond, whilst on the downside we see little in the way of support until the .7420/45 zone.
The current interbank midrate is:    AUDUSD 0.7502

The interbank range this week has been:    AUDUSD 0.7443 - 0.7656
Tuesday 13th September 1:30pm(NZT)
The Australian dollar has fallen heavily against the greenback since our report last week. The AUD eventually topped around the .7735 during the week, although fell quickly on Friday after the comments from Fed officials saw investors chase the USD and desert global equities and risk currencies. Lows have been limited to ahead of support at .7490 for now after the AUD benefitted from a rebound in the markets overnight (again Fed official comment inspired). Look to the Australian employment numbers on Thursday for fresh direction and key US data which also starts on Thursday. We favour the upside while .7490 remains intact.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
AUD/USD 0.7546 0.7490 0.7735 0.7494 - 0.7732

Thursday 8th September 2:30pm(NZT)
The Australian dollar has continued to rally against the USD in trade this week. Much of this week’s move can be attributed to the softer than expected US ISM services report which saw the USD marked lower in trade on Wednesday morning (NZ time). Expect a quieter end to the week given that the important US and Australian data has passed. This has us favouring resistance at .7700 capping for the time being, beyond which .7760 comes into view.
The current interbank midrate is:    AUDUSD 0.7678

The interbank range this week has been:    AUDUSD 0.7506 - 0.7697
Tuesday 6th September 3:30pm(NZT)
The Australian dollar has rallied against the USD after Friday’s weaker than expected US employment data saw investors reduce the odds on Fed rate hikes for 2016. The move reflects the relative demand for those currencies with yield appeal (like the AUD) given the likely gradual tightening path of the Fed. Further direction on this relative yield appeal will come from this afternoon’s RBA interest rate statement (noting the very remote likelihood of a move today). Also look to tomorrow’s Australian GDP data for further direction. We have little bias from here for the time being.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
AUD/USD 0.7604 0.7490 0.7700 0.7491 - 0.7609

Friday 2nd September 2:30pm(NZT)
The Australian dollar has eased marginally in trade against the USD this week. Declines earlier in the week were led by the increased demand for the greenback in the wake of the expectations that had lifted for an earlier Fed rate hike. Lows around the .7490 level have arrested the move lower during the week and came prior to the overnight recovery in the AUD which was aided by weaker than expected US manufacturing data. Look to today’s US Nonfarm payrolls employment data for a solid lead on the next move. Key events next week start with Tuesday’s RBA interest rate decision.
The current interbank midrate is:    AUDUSD 0.7546

The interbank range this week has been:    AUDUSD 0.7491 - 0.7689
Tuesday 30th August 2:00pm(NZT)
The Australian dollar has eased in trade against the greenback since our report on Friday. The move comes on the back of the comments which came from senior US Fed officials at the Jackson Hole meeting over the weekend. These saw the markets increase the odds for Fed rate hikes this year. The comments, particularly those of the Fed’s Fischer (who spoke of Yellen’s comments being consistent with two rate hikes in 2016), focuses’ attention on this Friday’s US employment data which looks likely to cement a September hike should it once again exceed expectations. We favour selling rallies, although resistance nearer .7700 should not be challenged ahead of Friday’s commentary.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
AUD/USD 0.7569 0.7520 0.7700 0.7526 - 0.7689

Friday 26th August 3:30pm(NZT)
The Australian dollar is largely unchanged in trade this week against the USD. The lack of volatility was to be expected given the market’s focus on any news which will come out of Jackson Hole this weekend (and Janet Yellen’s overnight speech in particular). Expect volatility to pick up although it would seem unlikely that Fed Chair Yellen should surprise the market by changing her signalling ahead of next week’s August US labour report. We moderately favour selling rallies although more solid resistance lies much higher in the .7720/50 zone.
The current interbank midrate is:    AUDUSD 0.7625

The interbank range this week has been:    AUDUSD 0.7584 - 0.7655
Tuesday 23rd August 1:30pm(NZT)
The Australian dollar has eased against the greenback since our report on Friday. The move represents a continuation of the momentum seen at the end of last week as USD supportive comments again came from various Fed members (Dudley and Fischer). Look for USD sentiment to drive trade this week, especially as the week progresses towards this Friday and the weekend’s Jackson Hole central banker Symposium. We lack a real bias on the week although would expect sharp rallies to again attract selling interest in the .7720/50 zone. Heavy selling should meet with buying interest in the .7450/80 region (if it should eventuate later in the week).
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
AUD/USD 0.7633 0.7580 0.7725 0.7584 - 0.7747

Friday 19th August 1:30pm(NZT)
The Australian dollar is again unchanged against the USD since our report on Friday. Highs near .7750 have been seen in the interim since Tuesday and came after weaker than expected US data and the demand seen after the RBA minutes. Selling which came in towards the .7720 level yesterday has us favouring selling rallies for the time being given the waning upside momentum. We would be surprised though to see levels under .7600 trade prior to our commentary on Tuesday given the lack of either US or Australian key data.
The current interbank midrate is:    AUDUSD 0.7663

The interbank range this week has been:    AUDUSD 0.7614 - 0.7747
Tuesday 16th August 1:30pm(NZT)
The Australian dollar is unchanged against the USD since our report on Friday. Buyers around the .7640/50 area were noted late in the week and overnight as the Aussie drifted lower on worse than expected Chinese data released late on Friday. Thursday looks to be the key risk day for this pair this week as we receive the US FOMC minutes and Australian employment numbers. We have little bias, although for now the momentum appears to point to a re-visit towards last week’s highs.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
AUD/USD 0.7668 0.7640 0.7760 0.7623 - 0.7756

Friday 12th August 2:30pm(NZT)
The Australian dollar has continued to track higher against the USD this week. Current levels sit off those highs seen earlier in the week which were set near .7760. The gains come amidst an environment of a weaker greenback on the week and relative demand for higher yielding currencies like the AUD. Look for resistance beyond the weekly highs to be evident in the .7835/50 zone and for US data to drive trade to end the week and till Australia’s employment data next Thursday. First support is seen around .7650 and then .7590/00. We lack a bias, although feel levels near this week’s highs offer good short term USD buying.
The current interbank midrate is:    AUDUSD 0.7675

The interbank range this week has been:    AUDUSD 0.7598 - 0.7756
Tuesday 9th August 2:30pm(NZT)
The Australian dollar has remained remarkably resilient in trade against the USD since our report on Friday. The marginal gains against the greenback come on the back of the solid showing yesterday as support around the .7600 level held in the wake of Friday’s strong US employment data. Gains have been limited to the .7675 level so far, although for now the AUD has been the best performer of the currencies we cover against the USD since Friday’s data. This week looks set to be a relatively quiet one on the local data front, although RBA Governor Stevens’s speech tomorrow has the potential to stir. Resistance beyond the recent highs lies around .7720.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
AUD/USD 0.7656 0.7565 0.7675 0.7495 - 0.7672

Friday 5th August 12:30pm(NZT)
The Australian dollar has advanced against the USD in trade since Tuesday. Current trade sees the AUD on its highs and comes after the sharp rally which was seen after the RBA cut rates on Tuesday. Australia data over the course of the week, which has been mostly weaker than expectations, has failed to dampen demand. Look to the US data tonight for the next major bout of volatility (potentially), we favour selling AUD and buying US in the broad .7675/.7720 zone overall should the US data underwhelm by not too greater margin.
The current interbank midrate is:    AUDUSD 0.7637

The interbank range this week has been:    AUDUSD 0.7494 - 0.7640
Tuesday 2nd August 3:00pm(NZT)
The Australian dollar sits relatively unchanged in trade against the USD since our report on Friday. This comes as highs around the .7615 level traded yesterday in the aftermath of Friday’s weak US growth data, which saw the market reducing exposure to the USD against most of its key peers. Direction this week will come initially this afternoon over the RBA interest rate decision and statement. Expectations are around 68% on the chance of a cut at today’s meeting. Other events of interest are Thursday’s Australian retail sales numbers (much less so) and Friday’s RBA monetary policy statement and US employment data. We lack a bias ahead of today’s announcement.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
AUD/USD 0.7537 0.7240 0.7615 0.7422 - 0.7615

Friday 29th July 1:45pm(NZT)
The Australian dollar sits relatively unchanged in trade against the USD since our report on Tuesday. Large option expiries at .7500 have seen the currency mired around this level with the main volatility being seen over the Australian inflation data and US FOMC meeting. Neither event was sufficiently different from expectations to drive a move in either direction, especially when seen against the weight of the option supply/demand. First focus for today is the Australian private sector credit data this afternoon. Volatility also looks likely over the BOJ meeting a few hours later.
The current interbank midrate is:    AUDUSD 0.7520

The interbank range this week has been:    AUDUSD 0.7422 - 0.7549
Tuesday 26th July 2:00pm(NZT)
The Australian dollar has drifted lower against the USD since our report on Friday. The move comes as the USD finished on its highs on Friday in a move that saw the AUD/USD fall to just under .7450. Focus for this week is on Wednesday’s inflation print which the market is viewing as critical for next week’s RBA policy response. Look for direction to be dictated by this data, although interest will also be on the following US FOMC statement. For now we moderately favour the AUD downside. Second support and resistance is pegged at .7400 and .7550 respectively.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
AUD/USD .7485 .7440 .7520 .7443 - .7557

Friday 22nd July 1:00pm(NZT)
The Australian dollar has had a quiet finish to the week against the USD given the relatively low impact data schedule that has come from both countries. Lows in the .7450/60 area has held the sell-off so far after the RBA minutes on Tuesday. This saw the market raising its expectations of an RBA rate cut in August. Wednesday’s Australian inflation data is important to watch and will have a key bearing on whether this expectation comes to fruition. We have little bias and expect .7450/.7550 to contain trade prior to Tuesday’s commentary.
The current interbank midrate is:    AUDUSD 0.7502

The interbank range this week has been:    AUDUSD 0.7455 - 0.7670
Tuesday 19th July 1:00pm(NZT)
The Australian dollar has eased against the USD since our report on Friday. The move comes on the back of gains by the USD on Friday on the back of better than expected key US data and as investors sought the relative safety of the USD after Turkey’s failed military coup. Further pressure has been seen today ahead of this afternoon’s key RBA minutes, although part of the blame likely lies on the poor performance of the NZD. Look for external influences to drive after the RBA minutes as attention quickly turns to offshore markets and the incoming US data.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
AUD/USD .7540 .7460 .7610 .7534 - .7670

Friday 15th July 2:00pm(NZT)
The Australian dollar remains on a firm footing in trade against the USD this week. Gains have come on the back of yesterday’s strong full-time employment numbers and as the market reacted positively to the incumbent government remaining in power in the Australian parliament after the final election vote count. Look to US data later today to set the tone of direction as various indicators led by the inflation numbers come to market. We don’t have any strong bias although note that selling interest in the .7650/60 area has capped since the start of May.
The current interbank midrate is:    AUDUSD 0.7617

The interbank range this week has been:    AUDUSD 0.7474 - 0.7657
Tuesday 12th July 1:00pm(NZT)
The Australian dollar has rallied against the USD since our report on Friday. The move comes on the back of ‘risk’ currency buying post the better than expected US employment report issued on Friday and as investors react to the now clearer picture of the Australian political landscape that will see the existing Liberal Coalition government remain in power. Events to watch this week are the Australian employment numbers on Thursday, whilst in the US the inflation and retail sales release (both on Friday) should contribute to USD sentiment. We lack any bias from here for the time being.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
AUD/USD 0.7534 0.7400 0.7575 0.7410 - 0.7575

Friday 8th July 12:00pm(NZT)
The Australian dollar has had a mixed week against the USD in trade this week. Gains towards the middle of the week came as the market began to anticipate a clearer outcome on the weekend’s election, although a warning from ratings agency S&P over the size of the budget deficit has seen the AUD ease in recent trade. Look to the US for direction to close out the week, resistance to rallies has now formed in the .7540/50 area, whilst an upside surprise in the US data or hung Australian parliament (when the voting is finalized) opens .7400/05 and the .7345/65 zone.
The current interbank midrate is:    AUDUSD 0.7483

The interbank range this week has been:    AUDUSD 0.7409 - 0.7544
Tuesday 5th July 2:00pm(NZT)
The Australian dollar has continued to rally against the USD since our report on Friday. The move comes despite the prospect of a hung parliament after the Australian election at the weekend as investors continue to look to those currencies that have a reduced exposure to the unfolding train wreck in the UK and Europe and offer yield. Yield forms the focus for the AUD today as the markets looks to the RBA announcement this afternoon for clues on the direction of rates in the months ahead.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
AUD/USD 0.7522 0.7435 0.7650 0.7344 - 0.7544

Friday 1st July 3:00pm(NZT)
The Australian dollar has lifted against the USD in trade this week. The move has once again came on the back of sentiment in offshore markets, this time an improvement since Monday which has helped global equity bourses lift significantly from their lows. Resistance is eyed above in the .7500/10 zone, whilst first support looks to now come in the .7345/65 zone. Immediate attention for the AUD will now turn to this weekend’s Federal Australian election and then the RBA cash rate decision on Tuesday.
The current interbank midrate is:    AUDUSD 0.7440

The interbank range this week has been:    AUDUSD 0.7314 - 0.7539
Tuesday 28th June 2:00pm(NZT)
The Australian dollar has fallen sharply against the USD in response to the UK’s decision to leave the EU on Friday. The move comes on the back of a wholesale departure from riskier currencies like the AUD on the back of concerns over a period of considerable uncertainty for the global economy which has seen global equities fall sharply since the news. Initial support is seen in the .7290/.7305 zone, whilst resistance is eyed at .7450 and then .7500/10. Data in Australia this week is light so look for the prevailing risk sentiment and incoming US data to influence. We favour selling rallies in this highly uncertain environment.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
AUD/USD 0.7360 0.7290 0.7450 0.7314 - 0.7643

Friday 24th June 3:00pm(NZT)
The Australian dollar has firmed against the USD since Tuesday as investors have looked to embrace ‘risk’ in the lead-up to the result of today’s UK EU referendum. Expect the result of the referendum to be known by 7.00 am London time, although already volatility is extreme. This will continue to be the case during the day as the numerous voting regions report their results. Initial resistance is seen around .7650 and then .7720. Weak support is seen around .7430/40 and then more importantly around .7290/.7300. Caution is required and orders near extremes could yield favourably.
The current interbank midrate is:    AUDUSD 0.7516

The interbank range this week has been:    AUDUSD 0.7373 - 0.7643
Tuesday 21st June 2:00pm(NZT)
The Australian dollar has firmed against the USD since our last commentary. The move comes on the back of a lift in ‘risk’ sentiment after the most recent news on the UK polling on the EU referendum. This issue looks set to dominate again this week as the UK heads to the polls on Thursday. Australian events to note are today’s speech by RBA Assistant Governor Debelle and the RBA minutes. Resistance is pegged around last week’s highs (.7505/10) and then .7550 whilst first support below .7300 looks distant.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
AUD/USD 0.7470 0.7290 0.7510 0.7289 - 0.7480

Friday 17th June 3:00pm(NZT)
The Australian dollar sits relatively unchanged against the USD since our report on Tuesday. Lows under .7290 were noted yesterday however as the AUD came under heavy pressure after the decision by the BOJ to leave policy unchanged at their central bank meeting on monetary policy (AUD/JPY selling). The week has seen heightened ‘risk aversion’ over the Brexit issue. This has capped the AUD gains to ahead of .7450 which was seen after the US FOMC meeting. A quiet Australian calendar next week means moves will come from USD sentiment and Brexit news during the week.
The current interbank midrate is:    AUDUSD 0.7392

The interbank range this week has been:    AUDUSD 0.7289 - 0.7444
Tuesday 14th June 2:00pm(NZT)
The Australian dollar has eased in trade since Friday against the USD. The move comes in an environment where the market has sold ‘risk’ currencies like the AUD in the wake of Friday’s polls in the UK which showed an increasing lead for those in favour of the UK leaving the EU. The risk of contagion and financial market turbulence has the market reflecting on the outlook for global growth during this period of heightened political uncertainty. Expect the external environment to have a considerable impact on this pair again during the week especially given the busy US data calendar over the week. Australian numbers are dominated by the employment report on Thursday. We cautiously favour buying dips for now although expect volatility to remain high.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
AUD/USD 0.7385 0.7350 0.7510 0.7360 - 0.7503

Friday 10th June 3:00pm(NZT)
The Australian dollar has extended its rally against the USD since our report on Tuesday. The gains have come in a largely supportive environment for risk and after Tuesday’s RBA rate decision and neutral policy bias. Weaker key commodities overnight have seen the AUD give up over 1% from its highs in current trade however. Local data next week is dominated by Thursday’s employment release although the heavy US data calendar means that USD sentiment will also have a strong influence. We cautiously favour buying dips around .7350/60 for now.
The current interbank midrate is:    AUDUSD 0.7415

The interbank range this week has been:    AUDUSD 0.7224 - 0.7503
Tuesday 7th June 3:00pm(NZT)
The Australian dollar has continued to climb against the USD since our last report. Last week’s gains were driven initially by the better than expected local data although the positive sentiment extended on Friday after the large miss in the US employment numbers. This has seen the AUD leap to highs around .7380 so far ahead of weak resistance at .7400. Further resistance is noted at .7450 and .7480. Critical to whether this advance can extend further is today’s RBA cash rate decision and commentary. We favour higher levels given the reversal in USD sentiment and expect buyers to emerge towards .7300.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
AUD/USD 0.7370 0.7300 0.7400 0.7203 - 0.7380

Thursday 2nd June 1:30pm(NZT)
The Australian dollar has enjoyed a solid bounce against the USD this week, albeit off its highs in current trade. Local data has driven the gains this week; most so the Q1 GDP print which saw growth top 3% on an annual basis. Rate cut expectations have naturally reduced over the course of the week. We expect volatility to remain elevated for the remainder of this week as we look forward to Australian retail sales numbers this afternoon and key US employment data at the end of the week. Resistance is eyed at this week’s highs (.7300) and then .7400. Support is seen at the recent lows of .7140. Downside momentum looks to have weakened considerably this week although the US data tomorrow holds the key to whether this is a forerunner of things to come.
The current interbank midrate is:    AUDUSD 0.7247

The interbank range this week has been:    AUDUSD 0.7151 - 0.7299
Tuesday 31st May 2:30pm(NZT)
The Australian dollar continues to trade with a weak tone against the USD in current trade. Positive USD sentiment remains a barrier to any recovery for the time being as US Fed officials continue to up the ante on the prospect of a US rate hike in coming months. This week is set to a pivotal one for the next leg. Support is pegged around .7140 whilst first real resistance lies above .7250. The complex wrap of data means we prefer not to have a view this week, although clearly for now the momentum is to the AUD downside. Events to watch in the US are dominated by the non-farm payrolls employment release on Friday whilst in Australia most volatility should be expected from the GDP and retail sales releases.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
AUD/USD 0.7193 0.7140 0.7260 0.7147 - 0.7243

Friday 27th May 2:00pm(NZT)
The Australian dollar traded to fresh cycle lows of 0.7147 USD this week in the wake of RBA Governor Stevens speech on Tuesday. Since then the pair has managed a minor recovery and it now trades around 0.7225. Initial topside resistance comes in around 0.7260 and it would take a break above there to suggest a broader recovery is unfolding. Such a move would then target 0.7380. In the absence of that, the risks remain skewed to further investigations lower. Key to direction in the early stage of next week will be tonight's US GDP data, followed by Fed Chair Yellen’s speech. If Yellen backs away from her ultra-dovish stance, the market may take the risk of a June Fed interest rate hike much more seriously. This would support the USD and target the AUD toward 0.7100.
The current interbank midrate is:    AUDUSD 0.7226

The interbank range this week has been:    AUDUSD 0.7147 - 0.7259
Tuesday 24th May 2:00pm(NZT)
The Australian dollar is largely unchanged against the USD since our report on Friday. Commodities and USD sentiment look to be the key drivers this week. This follows on from last week’s hawkish FOMC meeting minute notes, although today’s Q&A session after RBA Governor Stevens speech could excite. Momentum is still to the AUD downside for now, although the large declines in the last month suggest further moves lower will be much harder to come by. Resistance beyond the initial levels is noted around .7300 and .7400. A further support level below .7175 is pegged around .7100.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
AUD/USD 0.7219 0.7175 0.7260 0.7178 - 0.7366

Friday 20th May 3:00pm(NZT)
The Australian dollar has extended its slide against the USD this week. Declines this time came from USD strength which occurred mainly after the release of more hawkish than expected FOMC minutes. This week’s lows around .7175 are first support and very minor resistance is pegged at the old .7240/50 level, .7300 (stronger), and .7400 (stronger again) beyond. We favour AUD longs at these levels given the extent of the declines seen this month, although caution is needed given the lift in USD sentiment. Look for commodities and USD sentiment to drive next week given the low impact AUD economic calendar.
The current interbank midrate is:    AUDUSD 0.7231

The interbank range this week has been:    AUDUSD 0.7178 - 0.7366
Tuesday 17th May 2:00pm(NZT)
The Australian dollar continues to trade with a soggy tone against the USD in current trade. Further declines were noted after our last commentary on the back of better than expected US data on Friday and soft Chinese data flow over the weekend. Thursday looks set to be the most important day for this pair during the week with the release of the US FOMC minutes and later Australian employment numbers. Given the extent and speed of the recent fall, we believe the risk of a rebound is now high and favour buying AUD especially should yesterday’s lows hold for a few days.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
AUD/USD 0.7282 0.7240 0.7400 0.7257 - 0.7401

Friday 13th May 3:00pm(NZT)
The Australian dollar remains under pressure against the USD in trade today. Data out of both Australia and the US which has been light this week has meant the AUD has continued to struggle under the weight of last week’s RBA fall-out. Support is eyed at .7250 whilst this week’s highs around the .7400 level is first resistance. Look for US data to have some influence tonight. Australian employment data and US inflation numbers feature next week.
The current interbank midrate is:    AUDUSD 0.7296

The interbank range this week has been:    AUDUSD 0.7287 - 0.7407
Tuesday 10th May 2:00pm(NZT)
The Australian dollar has continued to fall against the USD since our report on Friday. Losses from last week’s highs have reached almost 420pts (5.4%) since last Tuesday. The move has come on a horror combination of an RBA rate cut, currency bearish RBA statement on monetary policy and sharply falling commodity prices. Sentiment towards commodities and commodity currencies and incoming US data look set to dominate this week given the light Australian data calendar. We now favour selling rallies towards .7400 for now, although AUD buy orders towards .7250 should also offer good value given the extent of the decline over the last week.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
AUD/USD 0.7300 0.7250 0.7410 0.7300 - 0.7718

Friday 6th May 2:00pm(NZT)
The Australian dollar has fallen heavily against the USD this week. The move started on Tuesday after the decision by the RBA to cut interest rates to fresh historical lows. Pressure on the commodity currencies, a rallying USD and waning risk sentiment has kept the AUD under pressure for the remainder of the week. Key support for the AUD/USD is in the .7375/.7410 zone. First resistance forms near old support around .7550. Today’s RBA Monetary Policy Statement and tonight’s US data are the immediate events of interest for this cross.
The current interbank midrate is:    AUDUSD 0.7467

The interbank range this week has been:    AUDUSD 0.7446 - 0.7718
Tuesday 3rd May 2:20pm(NZT)
The Australian dollar has lifted moderately against the USD since our report on Friday. The move comes on the back of a lower USD overall which has eased on the back of further soft US data. Expect volatility to be high this afternoon over the RBA cash rate announcement given the even nature of expectations on whether they will deliver a 25 bps rate cut. Support is seen as last week’s .7550 lows, whilst a lack of a cut has the potential to test .7765/75, especially should it be followed by further soft US data during the week. Australian retail sales on Thursday and the RBA statement on monetary policy on Friday are also noted.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
AUD/USD 0.7670 0.7550 0.7775 0.7562 - 0.7765

Friday 29th April 2:00pm(NZT)
The Australian dollar has had a messy week against its US counterpart this week. Declines to ~.7550 came on the back of momentum which started with weaker commodity prices and culminated in a very weak Australian Q1 inflation print on Wednesday. A cautious FOMC statement yesterday which gave little away on the timing of Fed rate hikes (high yielder +) and a firming CRB commodity price index has helped the AUD recover some ground since. Support is now seen at this week’s lows around .7550. Resistance is noted at .7765/75 and more importantly ahead of .7850. We favour buying dips ahead of .7550, although Tuesday’s RBA cash rate announcement complicates the view.
The current interbank midrate is:    AUDUSD 0.7636

The interbank range this week has been:    AUDUSD 0.7562 - 0.7772
Tuesday 26th April 2:20pm(NZT)
The Australian dollar has continued to ease from its highs seen last week against the USD. Commodity considerations have again been the dominant consideration as the AUD has felt the weight of the weaker oil and iron ore prices seen this week. Commodity moves will continue to bear during the week although the heavy data calendar (mainly in the US/Australian inflation numbers tomorrow) and US FOMC meeting will also have a large impact. First support is noted at .7620 whilst resistance lies around and ahead of .7850.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
AUD/USD 0.7713 0.7650 0.7850 0.7692 - 0.7833

Friday 22nd April 2:00pm(NZT)
The Australian dollar has eased from its highs set around .7835 against the USD this week, although is currently still up on the week so far. The Australian data calendar was lacking this week so once again it has been down to commodity influences to drive the AUD this week. A solid bounce in the USD overnight (post the ECB meeting) has put commodity prices, and the commodity currencies under pressure. Events to watch next week include the Australian inflation release on Wednesday. Support is seen at .7620, whilst the weekly highs through to .7850 offer strong resistance.
The current interbank midrate is:    AUDUSD .7767

The interbank range this week has been:    AUDUSD .7605 - .7833
Tuesday 19th April 2:40pm(NZT)
The Australian dollar has continued to rally against the USD since our last report. The move comes on the back of mildly weaker US data since and continued support for commodity and risk currencies which comes despite an initial Doha oil meeting setback yesterday. Again look for commodity prices to have a strong influence this week (and risk). Of interest also will be the US data flow, the RBA minutes this afternoon and a speech by the RBA Governor tonight. We continue to favour buying dips overall.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
AUD/USD 0.7771 0.7620 0.7850 0.7605 - 0.7783

Friday 15th April 2:00pm(NZT)
The Australian dollar has enjoyed a solid week against the USD this week. Gains have come on the back of a combination of influences. These include a continued lift in the CRB index over the week (although it fell overnight), generally positive risk sentiment, and on the back of a positive market response to the Australian employment report yesterday. The break of resistance at .7725 has so far proved false (~.7735 highs), although we continue to like higher levels over time. First support has now risen to around .7620 which would be our target for AUD buy orders.
The current interbank midrate is:    AUDUSD 0.7691

The interbank range this week has been:    AUDUSD 0.7515 - 0.7736
Tuesday 12th April 2:30pm(NZT)
The Australian dollar has lifted in trade against the USD since our report on Friday. The move comes mostly in recent hours after the overnight slide in the USD and support that was seen for commodity currencies in general, although strong oil price gains helped the AUD close well off its weekly lows on Friday. Key data events to watch this week include the Australian employment numbers (Thursday) and the earlier US retail sales. Later US inflation data will also interest. For now we favour buying dips (near .7500), a break of .7640 opens the way towards 2016 highs around .7725.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
AUD/USD 0.7586 0.7480 0.7640 0.7495 - 0.7637

Friday 8th April 2:00pm(NZT)
The Australian dollar has fallen against the USD since our last report and sits near its lows presently. Much of the fall has occurred in recent hours and comes on the back of strong JPY demand (against many currencies including the AUD) and to a much less extent commodity and risk currency selling. Look for these themes to again influence trade over coming days. First support is around .7480 and then ahead of .7400. Resistance has now formed ahead of .7640.
The current interbank midrate is:    AUDUSD 0.7528

The interbank range this week has been:    AUDUSD 0.7495 - 0.7694
Tuesday 5th April 2:30pm(NZT)
The Australian dollar has fallen against the USD since our report on Friday. The move started over the solid US data which was released on Friday, although the losses have built this week on the back of the  falls in the CRB commodity index overnight. Australian retail sales data released yesterday was weak, although was offset to some extent by stronger than expected building approvals numbers. Look for today’s RBA announcement to set the tone for the remainder of the week. Comments (or lack thereof) /a change on policy wording based around the recent AUD appreciation will be closely watched during the announcement.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
AUD/USD 0.7590 0.7480 0.7725 0.7512 - 0.7720

Friday 1st April 3:30pm(NZT)
The Australian dollar has rallied strongly against the USD this week. The move came on the back of a broad based USD sell-off which occurred after Fed Chair Yellen’s dovish comments on the US rate path which was delivered during a speech in New York. Data considerations should drive the next move. In this context tonight’s US employment data will be key. Australian data due for release on Monday will also be of interest (Retail Sales, Building Approvals); the RBA cash rate decision will follow on Tuesday. We favour a continued move higher targeting the .7815/45 zone once this week’s highs are breached. Support levels are distant (.7480), although some may be offered around the retracement lows (.7630/35).
The current interbank midrate is:    AUDUSD 0.7672

The interbank range this week has been:    AUDUSD 0.7493 - 0.7720
Tuesday 29th March 2:30pm(NZT)
The Australian dollar has eased against the USD since our last report, although sits up from its lows set near .7480. The declines seen last week after our report came about on the back of further hawkish comments from various Fed members and a spike in ‘risk-off’ selling after the Brussels terrorist attacks. Easing key commodity prices also contributed. A lift this week so far has been noted which has occurred on the back of a general data inspired USD sell-off. We favour moderately higher levels in the days ahead, although catalysts appear few until the US data flow on Friday.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
AUD/USD 0.7548 0.7480 0.7680 0.7479 - 0.7649

Tuesday 22nd March 3:30pm(NZT)
The Australian dollar has drifted off its highs which were set near .7680 since our last report. The retracement should be seen as healthy for the current up-trend especially in light of the large gains that were seen after the US FOMC interest rate meeting. The positive sentiment shown towards commodities should continue to support the AUD in trade this week, although we are wary of the potential for comments regarding its recent strength from the RBA Governor in tonight’s speech. We favour buying the AUD (cautiously given the gains) and some support may emerge in the .7520/30 zone, although critical support is lower (~.7400).
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
AUD/USD 0.7572 0.7400 0.7680 0.7415 - 0.7680

Friday 18th March 1:30pm(NZT)
The Australian dollar has advanced against the USD once again this week. The sharp move higher came yesterday after the US FOMC interest rate meeting. The resultant move by the Fed to significantly reduce their “dot plot” path for interest rates moving forward has seen the USD come under selling pressure since. This has particularly benefitted currencies like the AUD that have a dual exposure to risk appetite and commodities pricing. Look for the USD to dictate moves next week again given the light Australian data calendar. Support for the AUD is seen near .7400, resistance is difficult to peg nearby although some selling may be seen near .7680. We favour higher levels over time, targeting the .7815/45 zone.
The current interbank midrate is:    AUDUSD 0.7634

The interbank range this week has been:    AUDUSD 0.7415 - 0.7658
Tuesday 15th March 1:30pm(NZT)
The Australian dollar has continued to advance against the USD since our last report, although sits well off its highs set near .7590 in trade yesterday. The gains through resistance at .7535 came later on Friday on the back of a further shift higher in commodity prices (CRB index +1% on the day). Overnight losses in oil and precious metals have seen the AUD move lower in recent trade. Look for another busy week this week especially on Thursday with both the US FOMC decision and Australian employment data due for release. Look for this afternoon’s RBA policy meeting minutes to shed some light on the minor change in wording noted in the recent March RBA cash rate statement. We favour buying dips near first support.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
AUD/USD 0.7515 0.7390 0.7600 0.7411 - 0.7593

Friday 11th March 1:30pm(NZT)
The Australian dollar has put in a solid showing against the USD this week. Current levels are only marginally higher than that seen at the start of the week, although during the week the cross managed to challenge the old April 2015 support around .7530. The data calendars out of both countries have been quiet this week which has meant that the move higher has again come from the positive sentiment displayed towards commodity based currencies. Next week is a much busier one for data from both countries. Resistance above at .7530/35 is key to any further advances, initial support lies just under .7400.
The current interbank midrate is:    AUDUSD 0.7454

The interbank range this week has been:    AUDUSD 0.7341 - 0.7527
Friday 4th March 6:00pm(NZT)
The Australian dollar has had its strongest week of 2016 this week and has rallied over 3.7% from its early week lows seen against the USD. This comes on the back of a sharp spike in demand for currencies with commodity exposure amid an environment of improving key commodity prices (iron ore, base metals, oil) and a reduction in equity market volatility which has improved demand for risk currencies such as the AUD. The AUD also took a boost mid week from a much better than expected local Q4 GDP report. Australian retail sales at 1.30 pm and U.S. employment data later hold the key to whether next key resistance just ahead of .7400 can be breached on this move. Overall we like to buy dips ahead of new support which should be seen around .7260.
The current interbank midrate is:    AUDUSD 0.7354

The interbank range this week has been:    AUDUSD 0.7111 - 0.7374
Tuesday 1st March 2:30pm(NZT)
The Australian dollar has fallen sharply against the USD since our last report after the series of better than expected U.S. data released late in the week. It should be a busy week again for this pair given the heavy data calendars out of both countries. Of key interest today will be the RBA monetary policy meeting at 4.30 pm, the market widely expects rates to remain on hold at 2.00%. Support below .7125 is seen in the .7060/70 area. Key resistance now lies around .7260.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
AUD/USD 0.7137 0.7125 0.7260 0.7112 - 0.7256

Friday 26th February 2:00pm(NZT)
The Australian dollar has had a solid week against the United States dollar in trade so far this week. Current levels sit just off the highs set in front of .7260 earlier in the week. The sound showing can be put down to the run of softer U.S. data and better sentiment shown towards the risk and commodity currencies over the course of the week. Resistance beyond this week’s highs is seen in the .7325/40 zone. Support is eyed in the .7130/45 area. Next week’s data calendar is busy in both the U.S. and Australia and should offer many opportunities for entries within these ranges. We marginally favour buying dips.
The current interbank midrate is:    AUDUSD 0.7238

The interbank range this week has been:    AUDUSD 0.7070 - 0.7255
Tuesday 23th February 4:00pm(NZT)
The Australian dollar has advanced strongly against the USD in trade so far this week. Much of the move occurred during overnight trade and comes on the back of the solid gains seen in key commodity pricing which pushed the CRB index up ~2%. Strong rallies in both oil and iron ore were noted. Rallies in international equities have also helped shore up wider market risk sentiment (AUD+). Resistance ahead of .7250 has capped the rally so far, minor support is seen around .7180 and then .7130. Resistance beyond .7250 is noted in the .7325/.7340 zone. U.S. data and commodity/risk considerations will hold the key to whether the AUD/USD can build on its gains or revert well back into its range.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
AUD/USD 0.7227 0.7130 0.7250 0.7070 - 0.7246

Friday 19th February 2:00pm(NZT)
The Australian dollar has edged higher in trade against the USD this week. Calmer offshore financial markets have meant reduced volatility in this AUD/USD this week. Support has formed ahead of .7130 in recent hours, this held over the weaker than expected employment data yesterday. U.S. data and risk sentiment will dictate moves next week, especially given the lack of local data set for release. Resistance above this week’s highs lies around .7250.
The current interbank midrate is:    AUDUSD 0.7142

The interbank range this week has been:    AUDUSD 0.7066 - 0.7186
Tuesday 16th February 2:00pm(NZT)
The Australian dollar has drifted higher in trade since our last report. The move played out on the back of a lift in risk sentiment which was initiated on Friday. Better than expected U.S. data helped soothe the frayed nerves of investors which had discounted global equities heavily during the course of the week. The AUD/USD held well during the week despite the poor showing put in by global equities. The RBA minutes which feature this afternoon are unlikely to contain any new material information.  This will leave the AUD/USD vulnerable to further risk sentiment changes and in-coming U.S. data, at least until Thursday’s local employment numbers. We moderately favour buying dips towards .7000 at present.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
AUD/USD 0.7150 0.6970 0.7250 0.6977 - 0.7170

Friday 12th February 2:00pm(NZT)
The Australian dollar is trading near its weekly highs against the USD in present trade. Trade has been dictated by liquidity issues and flow out of the USD as the market has continued to reduce its ‘long’ positions in the USD during the week. Continued reductions in the expectations for Fed rate hikes have been the primary driver behind this reduction, this as the market becomes increasingly focussed on the uncertainties presented by the extreme financial market volatility. These issues look set to dominate trade next week. Local data includes Australian employment numbers on Thursday. Resistance beyond .7160 lies around .7245/50.
The current interbank midrate is:    AUDUSD 0.7105

The interbank range this week has been:    AUDUSD 0.6977 - 0.7209
Tuesday 9th February 3:00pm(NZT)
The Australian dollar has fallen sharply against the USD since our last report quickly erasing most of last week’s gains. This comes on the back of the heavy selling seen in the ‘risk’ currencies that has occurred after the sharp falls observed in global equities in the last two sessions. These declines have not been helped by a sharp rise in credit market concerns overnight. These issues look set to dominate again this week as they have so far in 2016 and will surely weigh on the enthusiasm of rallies in the foreseeable future. Speeches by the U.S. Fed chair (Thursday) and the RBA Governor (Friday) are the key events this week.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
AUD/USD .7062 .7050 .7250 .7008 - 7241

Friday 5th February 2:00pm(NZT)
The Australian dollar has continued to rally against the USD this week (although sits off ~.7245 highs) on the back of the reduction seen in extended long USD positioning and recent run of worse than expected U.S. data flow. Cautionary comments from various Fed officials have played a part in the decline seen in the USD enthusiasm this week. Today will be another volatile session for the AUD/USD exchange rate with Australian retail sales, the RBA statement on monetary policy and lastly the U.S. non-farm employment report all due for release. A break of .7250 should open next resistance in the .7325/40 area.
The current interbank midrate is:    AUDUSD 0.7198

The interbank range this week has been:    AUDUSD 0.7008 - 0.7241
Tuesday 2nd February 2:00pm(NZT)
The Australian dollar continues to build on its gains against the USD that were observed last week in recent trade. Factors at play include the recent softer U.S. data, reducing long USD positions after last week’s more subdued U.S. FOMC statement and the general improvement seen in investor risk sentiment. Of immediate interest for the AUD is today’s RBA interest rate decision and commentary, present pricing indicates almost no chance of a move at today’s meeting. Friday will also be important for the AUD/USD with Australian retail sales, the RBA statement on monetary policy and the U.S. employment report all due for release. We now favour buying dips.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
AUD/USD 0.7095 0.7040 0.7180 0.6922 - 0.7138

Friday 29th January 1:30pm(NZT)
The Australian dollar has enjoyed solid gains against the USD this week from lows set near .6920 early on. It reached highs over two cents above this in overnight trade. The more positive sentiment derives from a lift in investor interest in the risk and commodity currencies (noting the oil price gains on the week), a more cautious stance towards the USD post the FOMC statement this week, and the better than expected Australian Q4 inflation print on Wednesday. Australian retail sales and the RBA meeting are of note next week, whilst the heavy U.S. data calendar includes the U.S. employment report on Friday.
The current interbank midrate is:    AUDUSD 0.7085

The interbank range this week has been:    AUDUSD 0.6922 - 0.7122
Tuesday 26th January 4:00pm(NZT)
The Australian dollar reprieve seen during the latter part of last week against the USD has once again faded in trade overnight. Weaker equity markets and lower oil pricing once again asserted their dominance on investor sentiment, this has once again meant the AUD/USD has failed to break the now key .7050 level. It will be a busy week for this pair with Australian inflation data scheduled for tomorrow and the U.S. FOMC meeting on Thursday. We continue to heavily favour selling rallies in the current environment, especially should we see levels near .7050 again.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
AUD/USD 0.6940 0.6820 0.7050 0.6829 - 0.7042

Friday 22nd January 2:30pm(NZT)
The Australian dollar rallied strongly towards the end of this week against the USD after finding support around the .6820/25 level during the week. The eventuated amidst the elevated concerns over Chinese growth prospects, falling global share markets and sharply falling oil prices. An improvement in confidence overnight has seen the AUD/USD retain the .7000 level, although the looming resistance in the .7050/80 zone should prove very hard to break while global growth fears remain elevated. Australian data to watch next week includes the inflation print on Wednesday, global market concerns look set to dominate however.
The current interbank midrate is:    AUDUSD 0.7013

The interbank range this week has been:    AUDUSD 0.6829 - 0.7016
Tuesday 19th January 2:00pm(NZT)
The Australian dollar has remained under all sorts of pressure this past week, eventually smashing below the 2015 low of 0.6893. The key drivers remain concerns around China and global commodity prices and today’s Chinese GDP data will be of particular interest. Largely disappointing data out of the US has had little impact while local data, in the form of better than forecast employment numbers, provided only temporary respite for the pair. The 0.6900 area is now the first line of resistance and while below that level the risks are all still skewed to the downside. The one thing that is certain is that conditions will remain volatile.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
AUD/USD 0.6870 0.6700 0.6900 0.6831 - 0.7048

Friday 15th January 2:00pm(NZT)
The Australian dollar has continued to decline against the USD this week. The weakness is building on the falls seen last week, which started on the back of Chinese economic slowdown fears and the resultant plunging global equity bourses. The AUD/USD exchange rate topped around the .7050 level this week after bouncing on the back of better than expected Chinese trade data. The .6900 support level from September held the declines in overnight trade and is now critical to any further losses. We favour more choppy trade next week which will be dominated by commodity pricing and risk flow sentiment. Initial resistance is pegged in the .7050/80 zone.
The current interbank midrate is:    AUDUSD 0.6995

The interbank range this week has been:    AUDUSD 0.6911 - 0.7070
Tuesday 12th January 2:00pm(NZT)
The Australian dollar has fallen sharply against the USD in 2016. This has occurred against a back-drop of heightened global risk aversion and a continued weak commodity price environment (ex. Gold) as concerns over the Chinese economy flared up again last week. The outlook for this cross will again be heavily influenced by ‘risk’ flows this week, Australian employment data on Thursday and the U.S. dataflow on Friday will also influence, although perhaps to a lesser extent. We favour selling rallies in this environment above the .7050 level.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
AUD/USD 0.6980 0.6900 0.7080 0.6929 - 0.7215

Friday 18th December 2:30pm(NZT)
The Australian dollar trades near its lows for the week against the USD after a swift move lower overnight on the back of commodity currency selling and a generally firmer USD which has found additional support since yesterday’s FOMC meeting. The Australian data calendar is empty in the lead up to Xmas; this will leave the AUD moves to once again be dictated by offshore events (in particular commodity currency sentiment). First support is eyed around .7070 and then strongly ahead of 70c, resistance to rallies is now building in the .7275/90 zone.
The current interbank midrate is:    AUDUSD 0.7128

The interbank range this week has been:    AUDUSD 0.7098 - 0.7282
 
Tuesday 22nd December 2:00pm(NZT)
The Australian dollar has drifted higher against the USD since our last report. This has mainly been on the back of a more generalised USD easing post Friday’s weaker than expected U.S. PMI data. Last week’s losses were limited to the .7100 area. Support below .7100 is seen around .7070, and then critically .7000. First building resistance is seen in the .7275/90 zone and then .7385/90 (important). Commodity pricing and U.S. data will drive the moves over the holiday break. The first Australian data of note in 2016 is trade and building approvals data on January 7th.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
AUD/USD .7195 .7100 .7300 .7098 - .7282

Tuesday 15th December 2:00pm(NZT)
The Australian dollar has enjoyed a decent bounce from its lows set yesterday around the .7160 level. Further declines in key commodity pricing and risk-off selling on the back of weakening international equities drove the losses to its lows. Subsequent highs have been seen around the .7270 level. Key resistance remains around .7385, although the .7335/50 zone should also provide a test to a topside push. Support around and above .7150 remains critical to the downside. The RBA minutes this afternoon should provide some movement although the real test this week comes from Thursday’s FOMC meeting.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
AUD/USD .7244 .7150 .7385 .7161 - .7333

Friday 11th December 2:30pm(NZT)
The Australian dollar has eased from its highs set against the USD this week post the release of much better than expected Australian employment data yesterday. Gains were limited to the .7335 area after the release, although have moderated since as the market again focuses on the dour commodity price environment. Key resistance is around .7385 (last Friday’s highs), whilst support remains in the .7150/70 region on the downside. Drivers next week are led by next Thursday’s U.S. FOMC meeting. We favour selling rallies near yesterday’s highs while key commodity prices remain depressed.
The current interbank midrate is:    AUDUSD 0.7265

The interbank range this week has been:    AUDUSD 0.7173 - 0.7385
Tuesday 8th December 2:30pm(NZT)
The Australian dollar is trading with a soft tone today after it again tested resistance on Friday around the .7385 level. The test came after the U.S. non-farm payrolls employment report. However, it has been quickly rejected on the back of renewed commodity price inspired selling (note extremely weak oil and iron ore prices). Key support comes in near .7150; key resistance is still around .7385. Australian employment data on Thursday is the next test for this cross, although NAB business confidence later today will be of some interest. The weak commodity price environment has us favouring selling rallies towards .7320 for now.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
AUD/USD 0.7256 0.7150 0.7385 0.7227 - 0.7385

Friday 4th December 2:00pm(NZT)
The Australian dollar remains well supported against the USD presently and within reach of its October highs seen near .7380. The strength has come about after on balance weaker than expected U.S. data this week and a firm Australian Q3 GDP report, although extended “long USD positioning” has also been a major driver. First support for this cross now resides around .7280, whilst resistance beyond .7380/85 should come in ahead of .7450 in time. The Australian retail sales release this afternoon will likely take a back seat to the more important later U.S. employment data; next week’s Australian employment data on Thursday will also be closely watched.
The current interbank midrate is:    AUDUSD 0.7340

The interbank range this week has been:    AUDUSD 0.7172 - 0.7361
Tuesday 1st December 4:00pm(NZT)
The Australian dollar remains supported against the USD in recent trade. This comes despite the poor Australian CAPEX data (-9.2% in Q3) released last Thursday and heavy key commodity prices which include a 20% decline observed in iron ore prices since September. Immediate focus for this cross will be the accompanying commentary to the RBA cash rate decision this afternoon, especially since Governor Stevens comments last week indicated that the rate will be left at the current 2.00% today. The heavy data calendar for the remainder of the week includes Australian Q3 GDP tomorrow, Australian retail sales and the U.S. employment report on Friday. These events make near-term direction difficult to pick, although for now we favour higher levels, while the .7150 level supports.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
AUD/USD 0.7242 0.7150 0.7285 0.7172 - 0.7280

Friday 27th November 2:30pm(NZT)
The Australian dollar sits near its opening levels of the week currently. These current levels are relatively mid-range after bouncing off fresh support around the .7150 level. This initial pressure came from solid commodity decline inspired selling. A rally to ~ .7285 highs later gave way to fresh selling after the weak Australian Q3 CAPEX data seen yesterday. Whilst we maintain a mildly bullish bias, we note the distance from first support (.7150). Selling should be seen above .7300 initially, although better supply is seen in the .7360/85 region above (October highs). Moves will be heavily data dependent next week, releases to watch include the RBA cash rate announcement on Tuesday, Australian GDP on Wednesday, and the U.S. non-farm payrolls employment report on Friday.
The current interbank midrate is:    AUDUSD 0.7220

The interbank range this week has been:    AUDUSD 0.7162 - 0.7280
Tuesday 24th November 3:00pm(NZT)
The Australian dollar surged late last week against the United States dollar to highs around the .7250 level after breaking recent down-trend resistance at the .7125 level. This move came post the Fed minutes as extended bought USD positions partially unwound after a release. This merely served to reinforce growing expectations of a December rate hike. The gains were partially relinquished in trade yesterday as the AUD fell victim to declining commodity prices. Focus will now turn to the U.S. GDP release tonight before the Australian private capital expenditure data release on Thursday. The trend-line break has us now favouring buying dips around the .7150 level.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
AUD/USD 0.7188 0.7000 0.7250 0.7074 - 0.7250

Thursday 19th November 1:00pm(NZT)
After snapping higher this time last week in the wake of surprisingly strong Australian employment data, the AUD has ever so slowly given back much of those gains. Broad based declines in commodity prices have kept the topside of the AUD capped, while the USD continues to find support on the back of an expected Fed interest rate hike in December. Minor support around 0.7070 has contained the downside for now, but as long as the market hold below downtrend resistance, currently seen at 0.7125, the risks remain skewed for a test toward 0.7000.
The current interbank midrate is:    AUDUSD 0.7118

The interbank range this week has been:    AUDUSD 0.7060 - 0.7157
Tuesday 17th November 3:00pm(NZT)
The Australian dollar has drifted in recent days after initially rallying after last Thursday’s strong Australian October employment report. Resistance around .7160 capped the bounce on Friday after the release of a weaker than expected U.S. retail sales report. Souring risk sentiment and demand for USD’s post the weekend’s terror attacks has placed the AUD under some pressure ahead of tonight’s U.S. inflation report. Thursday’s FOMC minutes will be the next key driver of this pair this week.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
AUD/USD 0.7105 0.7000 0.7160 0.7017 - 0.7157

Friday 13th November 2:00pm(NZT)
The Australian dollar has recovered well against its U.S. counterpart after yesterday’s very strong Australian October employment report. Support ahead of 70c held well at the start of the week after the bumper U.S. non-farm payrolls labour report on Friday. Trend-line resistance from the October highs presently around the .7170 (declining) appears pivotal for this cross. We only marginally favour selling rallies ahead of this level after this week’s strong Australian data. Risk sentiment may be important, on the data front the RBA minutes and U.S. inflation next Tuesday will be of interest.
The current interbank midrate is:    AUDUSD 0.7133

The interbank range this week has been:    AUDUSD 0.7017 - 0.7169
Tuesday 10th November 1:30pm(NZT)
After holding up well initially last week against its U.S. counterpart, the Australian dollar has fallen sharply post Friday’s release of a very strong U.S. non-farm payrolls employment report. The lack of interest rate cut by the RBA saw the AUD find some support early in the week, although the divergent monetary policy paths of the Fed and RBA were highlighted by the strong U.S. employment data. Thursday’s Australian October employment release will be important if the AUD is to arrest it’s downwards trajectory, although a sell rallies in the AUD sentiment is favoured.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
AUD/USD 0.7050 0.7000 0.7125 0.7018 - 0.7223

Friday 6th November 1:00pm(NZT)
The lack of interest rate cut by the RBA at its monetary policy meeting saw the AUD gain some reprieve this week. First key selling interest should now lie around the weekly highs ~.7225 and then .7250. Support is seen in the .7050/60 zone. The rally this week was capped by a declining trend-line from the October highs (~.7383), which whilst holding should favour additional downside pressure. Immediate direction will come from today’s RBA minutes and later release of the U.S. Non-farm payrolls employment report. Next Thursday’s Australian October employment release will also be a key driver.
The current interbank midrate is:    AUDUSD 0.7147

The interbank range this week has been:    AUDUSD 0.7085 - 0.7223
Tuesday 3rd November 5:30pm(NZT)
The RBA cash rate announcement later today will be pivotal for the Australian dollar fortunes, especially given the markets even split of opinions. A lack of cut should bring .7200 quickly into view with next resistance likely ahead of .7250. The RBA statement on monetary policy and U.S. employment report on Friday will also be key drivers. First support is seen around .7050/60 and then around the .7000 level. We have a moderate bias to the upside for now ahead of the RBA meeting.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
AUD/USD 0.7155 0.7060 0.7200 0.7069 - 0.7257

Friday 30th October 2:30pm(NZT)
The Australian dollar trades close to its lows against the U.S this week. The move comes after falling on the back of a more hawkish than expected U.S. FOMC statement and weaker than expected Australian Q3 inflation data. The RBA cash rate announcement on Tuesday next week will be critical if the AUD is to find support. The market current puts a ~50% chance of the RBA cutting on Tuesday from the current 2.0% and is pricing around 45 bps of cuts by the middle of next year. The announcement hangs in the balance, although the market may now be overestimating the willingness of the RBA to cut presently given the continued strength seen in the Sydney and Melbourne property markets. Initial selling lies in the .7155/75 region whilst a break of .7050/60 on the downside brings the .6980/.7000 area into play. Next Friday’s U.S. employment report will also be pivotal.
The current interbank midrate is:    AUDUSD 0.7100

The interbank range this week has been:    AUDUSD 0.7069 - 0.7295
Tuesday 27th October 4:00pm(NZT)
The Australian dollar has spent much of the past 10 days ranging between the broad parameters of 0.7200 and 0.7300. Growing expectation for an interest rate cut from the RBA, to offset the out of cycle mortgage rate increase from the major banks, is likely to keep the topside capped around 0.7300 in the very near term. However, we do have the US Fed meeting to digest this week along with Australian inflation data, both of which could easily influence. Look for dips under 0.7200 to continue to find buying interest for now. There is a significant risk that the AUD could find itself well undervalued if the Fed back away from a December rate hike, and the RBA hold off cutting rates next week. A sharp rally back toward 0.7600 could easily develop over the coming weeks if that scenario plays out.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
AUD/USD 0.7250 0.7180 0.7300 0.7188 - 0.7296

Friday 23rd October 1:30pm(NZT)
The Australian dollar has continued to ebb lower during the course of the week against the USD. Increasing momentum in the calls for a RBA rate cut at the next meeting in November have weighed. Some selling is noted around the .7240/50 level, although better resistance lies just above .7300. Small support near .7160 is in sight, a break of which brings .7085/.7100 into view. Next week’s FOMC meeting will have a critical bearing on this cross, especially given the AUD’s current relative yield appeal. Risk appetite and Tuesday’s Australian inflation data must also be watched.
The current interbank midrate is:    AUDUSD 0.7215

The interbank range this week has been:    AUDUSD 0.7188 - 0.7335
Tuesday 20th October 1:25pm(NZT)
The upside momentum shown by the Australian dollar against the USD has waned over recent days on the back of increasing calls for an RBA rate cut from the current 2.0%.  First resistance lies just above 73 cents although much stronger selling should lie in the .7365-85 area, although the chance of seeing these levels again in the near-term appear remote. Support near .7200 and .7160 are the first targets on the current down-swing. Today’s RBA minutes should be closely watched although are unlikely to shed much further light on the rates outlook given there was little change in the September meeting statement.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
AUD/USD 0.7250 0.7200 0.7310 0.7200 - 0.7363

Friday 16th October 3:00pm(NZT)
The Australian dollar continues to make ground against the USD as market expectations for a Fed rate lift-off continue to re-price a delay. Losses to .7215 lows seen earlier in the week on the back of soft Chinese data have largely been reversed as the market continues to focus on the increasing commentary coming from Fed members which point to a greater likelihood of rate hikes being pushed into 2016. The RBA minutes on Tuesday next week should be noted, with resistance now forming higher between .7365-.7385. This week’s lows around .7215 would be the first support area for buyers to target on dips.
The current interbank midrate is:    AUDUSD .7305             

The interbank range this week has been:    AUDUSD .7200 - .7381 
Tuesday 13th October 2:00pm(NZT)
The Australian dollar continues to make ground against its U.S. counterpart as global risk appetite remains improved and expectations for a Fed rate lift-off are pushed out. Critical to further gains this week will be the release of the Australian September employment data on Thursday. U.S. focus will be on their inflation data release the same day, and US retail sales numbers on Wednesday. Key commodity price movements and Chinese trade data later today will also influence. Whilst further gains in the AUD appear possible, the strong rally in the last week gives some cause for concern, meaning a consolidation is quite likely.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
AUD/USD 0.7355 0.7300 0.7450 0.7072 - 0.7381

Friday 9th October 3:00pm(NZT)
It has been a strong week for the Australian dollar which has seen it firm around 2.5 c against the USD from its starting lows around .7025 to its highs. Early gains were made after the RBA failed to strike additional dovish tones in their statement on Tuesday. Gains continued later in the week as the market reacted to improving global risk appetite which saw key global equity bourses rally significantly as the week progressed (Dow + 3.5%, S&P +3.2%, FTSE +4.0% so far). Improving key commodity prices (WTI Oil $49.45 last) added to the positive tone. Critical to further gains will be the release of next week’s Australian September employment data on Thursday. U.S. attention will centre on their CPI release the same day and U.S. Retail Sales (Wednesday), the outcomes to these events will likely determine whether the AUD can breach September’s highs around .7280., beyond which .7450 becomes a target.
The current interbank midrate is:    AUDUSD 0.7266

The interbank range this week has been:    AUDUSD 0.7008 - 0.7268
Tuesday 6th October 2:00pm(NZT)
The Australian dollar has made gains against the USD over the past week, but there is some caution ahead of today’s Reserve Bank of Australia rate statement that is holding the currency back to a degree. Without a shadow of a doubt, Friday’s US employment data was a big disappointment and although it took some time, it eventually started to weigh on the USD. This has helped the AUD trade up over 0.7100 in the past 24 hours, but direction from here will likely be determined by the tone of the RBA’s statement this afternoon. The AUD will see increased support if the central bank continues to maintain its very neutral stance. Any signal of a move toward an easing bias will weigh on the currency however. Releases from the US this week that will draw attention include the trade balance and the FOMC minutes along with a number of Fed officials who are set to speak. If the AUD can sustain a break above initial resistance around 0.7100 then a move toward 0.7250 may well develop.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
AUD/USD 0.7085 0.6900 0.7100 0.6939 - 0.7109

Friday 2nd October 2:00pm(NZT)
After bouncing from a low of 0.6939 on Tuesday night, the Australian dollar has made some significant gains against the USD. The pair traded as high as 0.7084 last night, before soft global stock markets eventually weighed on risk sentiment and capped the move. The AUD gained some support from Chinese manufacturing data yesterday that came in a touch better than forecast and the market now awaits the release of Australian retail sales figures. That result will hit the wires in the next couple of hours and will be followed later tonight by the all-important US employment report. The US data will in all likelihood dictate the direction of this pair heading into next week. A reading of sub 175k will put a question mark over a potential December Fed interest rate hike and this will pressure the USD. On the other hand a strong result of +225k will cement expectations for a Fed hike and see the USD gain broad based support. The main event in Australia next week will be Tuesday afternoons RBA rate statement. While from the US attention will turn to ISM non-manufacturing PMI along with the trade balance and the Fed meeting minutes.
The current interbank midrate is:    AUDUSD 0.7035

The interbank range this week has been:    AUDUSD 0.6939 - 0.7084
Tuesday 29th Sept 3:00pm(NZT)
The Australian dollar has failed to stage any meaningful recovery against the USD over the past week and is once again now trading back below 0.7000. The US dollar remains broadly supported by the ongoing expectation for an interest rate hike by the Fed over the coming months, and this is limiting any potential AUD upside. If we get further poor Chinese PMI data this week the AUD could easily test back down to the cycle lows just under 0.6900. Locally we have building approvals along with retail sales data to digest, while from the US the focus will turn to the key releases of ISM manufacturing PMI and non-farm payroll change.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
AUD/USD 0.6965 0.6900 0.7100 0.6940 - 0.7158

Friday 25th September 2:30pm(NZT)
It has been a tough past week for the Australian dollar with constant pressure from the USD taking the currency close to recent cycle lows just above 0.6900. That’s a big turnaround from the spike high of 0.7277 seen around this time last week. Broad based USD strength has been one factor, but we have also seen a sharp increase in negativity toward the AUD and the Australian economic outlook. Another decline in Chinese manufacturing PMI didn’t help Australian sentiment and there are there are now many forecasters calling for one, or more, interest rate cuts from the RBA. Fed Chair Yellen’s speech this morning also reiterated that the US are likely to see an interest rate hike this year, and this outlook will keep the USD broadly supported. Next week from Australia we have building approvals and retail sales data to draw focus. While from the US we get CB consumer confidence, Chicago PMI, personal spending and income, ISM manufacturing PMI and non-farm employment change.
The current interbank midrate is:    AUDUSD 0.7007

The interbank range this week has been:    AUDUSD 0.6940 - 0.7277
Tuesday 22nd Sept 2:30pm(NZT)
Over the course of the past two weeks the Australian dollar has made significant gains against the USD, with a healthy correction higher developing. It has therefore been somewhat surprising that in the wake of Friday’s no change Fed announcement the gains have stalled, and in fact the USD has ended up a touch stronger than where it was before the announcement. In the immediate aftermath of the Fed decision the AUD twice rallied strongly toward 0.7275, but on both occasions the gains were short lived. Although it’s hard to justify, in the early stages of this week the USD has seen broad based support and as such the pair is now trading around 0.7130. I continue to believe there is room for some USD depreciation but recent price action certainly doesn’t support that. There is minor support around 0.7100 and if the Australian dollar want’s any chance of recovering it needs to hold above that level. Data wise there isn’t much from Australia to get excited about this week, while from the US we have durable goods orders, new home sales, and the final reading of GDP to digest.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
AUD/USD 0.7133 0.7100 0.7300 0.7086 - 0.7277

Friday 18th September 2:50pm(NZT)
It has been a hugely positive week for the Australian dollar in terms of price action against the USD. Consistent gains for the AUD eventually saw important downtrend resistance around 0.7155 broken this has kept the outlook very much on the topside. The main event was always going to be the Fed interest rate decision and it didn’t disappoint. A ‘no change’ decision and a somewhat dovish sounding Janet Yellen initially sent the AUD soaring as the USD came under pressure across the board. The currency traded to 0.7275 before a very surprising pullback saw almost all those gains evaporated. The AUD has regained composure and in the last few hours we are starting to see a grind higher develop. I would expect the USD to broadly remain under pressure over the coming days and weeks. This could very well see the AUD back toward resistance around 0.7550. Next week from Australia we have the house price index and the RBA’s financial stability review to digest. While from the US we get existing home sales, durable goods orders and the final reading of second quarter GDP
The current interbank midrate is:    AUDUSD 0.7183

The interbank range this week has been:    AUDUSD 0.7037 - 0.7274
Tuesday 15th Sept 1:30pm(NZT)
The Australian dollar has been a solid performer over the past week, supported by better employment data and improving iron ore prices. Last night’s political shenanigans provided only a temporary hiccup for the currency which largely took the change of prime minister in its stride. Some broad based US dollar weakness has also helped the AUD which now looks set to test key downtrend resistance around 0.7175. I would expect that level to provide a tough topside barrier. A sustained break above there would open the way for a much broader move toward 0.7440 or potentially 0.7550. Whether the market has the momentum to make such a break ahead of Thursday’s key US Fed meeting remains to be seen, but I suspect not. It could be a very different story after that Fed announcement however and it seems likely we will see a period of heightened volatility.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
AUD/USD 0.7153 0.6975 0.7175 0.6932 - 0.7151

Friday 11th September 2:30pm(NZT)
It has been a week of very positive price action for the Australian dollar, and one that may well suggest a short term low has been put in place around 0.6900. The risks for the AUD at this stage look to have swung back to the topside and a test of key downtrend resistance, now seen around 0.7180, may well be on the cards. The key move this week came in the wake of yesterday’s better than forecast employment data which triggered a strong move higher in the AUD. This saw the local currency test the 0.7100 level overnight, and although that has capped it for now the pair feels like it may go higher. The market has largely ignored an improvement in the price of iron ore over the past few weeks and this combined with some expected USD weakness, as we approach the Fed’s key interest rate decision next week, should underpin the AUD over the coming days. Next week we have the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) minutes set for release along with a speech from Governor Stevens to digest. While in the US the focus will be firmly on the Fed’s interest rate decision which hits the wires early on Thursday morning.
The current interbank midrate is:    AUDUSD 0.7075

The interbank range this week has been:    AUDUSD 0.6902 - 0.7097
Tuesday 8st Sept 4:30pm(NZT)
The Australian dollar has seen relentless pressure from the USD recently. Friday’s release of US employment data failed to provide any respite with the overall tone of the report reasonably positive. This helped to drive the AUD down toward 0.6900, and while that has contained the weakness for now, it only seems a matter of time before we test lower again. Initial topside resistance comes in around 0.7000 and it would take a move above that level to alleviate the immediate downside pressure. From Australia this week we have business confidence, consumer sentiment, inflation expectations and employment data to digest. While from the US we get import prices, producer prices and University of Michigan consumer sentiment.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
AUD/USD 0.6948 0.6800 0.7000 0.6902 - 0.7147

Friday 4th September 1:00pm(NZT)
The Australian dollar has struggled this week under the weight of poor economic data. Disappointing GDP and retail sales figures did the damage with the AUD testing levels below 0.7000 on a number of occasions. For the time being at least, the market has failed to sustain those dips below 0.7000, but the longer term outlook remains negative. Although the RBA made no hint toward a further easing after their rate meeting on Tuesday, many in the market expect another interest rate cut before the end of the year. This week’s data has only served to reinforce that expectation. Any periods of Australian dollar strength will therefore eventually run into good selling interest. The immediate focus now turns to tonight’s US employment report. This data could easily provide some significant volatility as it may be key in solidifying expectations around potential action at the Fed’s September interest rate meeting. If, as a result tonight's data, we do see some USD weakness there is resistance on the topside for the AUD at 0.7060. A break above there could open the way for a move as high at 0.7200, where I suspect sellers would be lining up. A strong US payrolls report will likely see the AUD once again testing levels below 0.7000, and this time the recovery may not be so quick.
The current interbank midrate is:    AUDUSD 0.7003

The interbank range this week has been:    AUDUSD 0.6985 - 0.7206
Tuesday 1st Sept 4:30pm(NZT)
The Australian dollar has remained under pressure from the USD in the wake of last Monday’s volatile price action. Continued concerns about Chinese growth are weighing on the AUD, while the USD has seen broad support as hopes of a September interest rate hike by the Fed are still alive. The immediate focus now turns to this afternoon’s Reserve Bank of Australia interest rate meeting. The market will be keen to see how their rhetoric on China has developed. A significant downgrade in their assessment of China, and global growth, would help solidify growing market expectation of another rate cut by the RBA over the coming months. It will also weigh on the AUD. The rest of the week hold plenty of potential for further volatility with local data in the form of GDP, retail sales and the trade balance set for release. While from the US we have ISM manufacturing and non-manufacturing PMI ahead of Friday’s key employment report.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
AUD/USD 0.7116 0.7050 0.7250 0.7070 - 0.7250

Friday 28th August 3:00pm(NZT)
Concerns around Chinese stocks, and growth in growth in general, pressured the Australian dollar this week. A period of dramatic risk aversion on Monday night saw a sharp spike lower, but this was quickly reversed. Since then some solid US data has kept the pair focused on the downside, with a low of 0.7069 trading early on Thursday morning. The AUD has seen some minor gains since then, but while the market remains below initial resistance around 0.7240 the risks a still skewed to the downside. A move above 0.7230 would open the way for a test of the more important 0.7300 resistance area, and only a break above here would relieve the downside pressure. Until then, selling into strength is the favoured play. Next week from Australia we have building approvals, the RBA rate meeting, GDP, retail sales and the trade balance all set for release. While from the US attention will turn to ISM manufacturing and non-manufacturing PMI, the trade balance, and importantly, Friday’s non-farm payrolls release.
The current interbank midrate is:    AUDUSD 0.7195

The interbank range this week has been:    AUDUSD 0.7069 - 0.7359
Tuesday 25th Aug 7:30pm(NZT)
The Australian dollar spent most of last week ranging sideways just above 0.7280. It has been a different story so far this week however, with wider market volatility spilling over into the Australian dollar. It started yesterday with another big fall in Chinese stocks, this time some 8.5%, but it quickly spread to Europe and the US with their stock markets looking vulnerable. This caused a wave of risk aversion which pressured the Australian dollar. For a few minutes around the US stock market open liquidity in currency markets completely dried up causing momentary panic. Markets quickly regained some composure, but by this time the AUD was trading below 0.7150. For the time being expect more nervous trade with the risks still to the downside for the AUD. The situation in China isn’t getting any better and although the central bank will likely ease monetary policy further over the coming months, it's hard to see how the current stock market rout won't feed through into the Chinese economy and cause more ‘dominos’ to fall. The Chinese shadow banking system has long been flagged as a cause for concern after exponential growth in recent years. It will be a key area to watch in the coming months.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
AUD/USD 0.7180 0.7050 0.7250 0.7099 - 0.7374

Thursday 20th Aug 1:30pm (NZT)
It has been a somewhat quieter week for the Australian dollar this week with price action largely contained between 0.7300 and 0.7400 to the US dollar. The AUD has seen some pressure on the back of further falls in Chinese stocks, but in the past 12 hours, with subdued US inflation data and a benign Fed minutes release, it has been the USD that is on the back foot. Further sideways trade can be expected as the market weighs up the declining expectations of a September interest rate hike from the US Fed. This would suggest a preference of buying into weakness for the AUD over the very near term. Still to come this week from the US we have existing home sales, the Philly Fed manufacturing index and manufacturing PMI. Next week we have durable goods orders, GDP and the trade balance to digest. In Australia next week the focus will be on private capital expenditure data set for release on Thursday.
The current interbank midrate is:    AUDUSD 0.7358

The interbank range this week has been:    AUDUSD 0.7313 - 0.7409
Tuesday 18th Aug 1:30pm(NZT)
Although the surprise Chinese Yuan devaluation last week pressured the Australian dollar to fresh cycle lows against the USD, these levels were short lived. The pair quickly recovered back above 0.7350 where it spent the rest of the week drifting sideways in a relatively tight range. The immediate focus now turns to today’s RBA minutes which should confirm the bank's current neutral stance. From the US recently we have seen some very mixed data which has failed to support further US dollar buying at this stage, although there is plenty to digest over the coming days. Building permits, housing starts, inflation, the Fed minutes, the Philly Fed manufacturing index, existing home sales and manufacturing PMI are all set for release this week. With little overall direction in the AUD at the moment, I favour buying into any periods of weakness, as the broader downside momentum has certainly waned recently and a broader correction higher toward 0.7550 could well unfold.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
AUD/USD 0.7367 0.7320 0.7550 0.7235 - 0.7439

Friday 14th Aug 1:00pm(NZT)
It has been a choppy week of trading in the Australian dollar thanks to the devaluation of the Chinese Yuan. There has been little overall direction, although the AUD did briefly trade to fresh cycle lows in the immediate aftermath of Tuesday’s announcement from the People’s Bank of China. However, the recovery from that low was a quick one with the AUD trading back toward 0.7400 within 12 hours or so. It is still very unclear what the longer term impact of the Chinese move will be on the Australian dollar, but it’s probably somewhat negative. It raises real concerns about global growth and it will pressure commodity prices further. The problem for the market is it also makes a September Fed rate hike a little less likely and that is weighing on the US dollar. For the time being it looks like dips in the AUD will continue to find good support. Longer term charts suggest a real lack of downside momentum and I would expect the market to run into plenty of buying interest on dips toward, or below, 0.7300.
The current interbank midrate is:    AUDUSD 0.7372

The interbank range this week has been:    AUDUSD 0.7235 - 0.7439
Tuesday 11th Aug 2:30pm(NZT)
After surging toward 0.7425 this time last Tuesday, in the wake of the RBA's rate statement, the Australian dollar has spent much of the past week consolidating those gains. A range of 0.7320 to 0.7420 has developed with the top of that range looking more at risk than the bottom. The USD  failed to gain any real support from Friday night non-farm payrolls data even though the result was close to expectation, and reasonably solid, at +215k. In the past 24 hours a bounce in commodity prices has also helped to support the AUD, and it this were to extend the local currency could eye a move toward 0.7500. Business confidence, consumer sentiment and wage price data from Australia will draw attention over the coming days. While from the US we get unit labour costs, retail sales, producer prices and consumer sentiment data.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
AUD/USD 0.7426 0.7320 0.7500 0.7264 - 0.7428

Friday 7th August 11:40am (NZT)
This pair has seen some decent swings this week, albeit the moves contained within the establishing range we have seen over the last month. The strong Australian trade balance and retail sales data combined with a less “dovish” than expected RBA to boost demand for Australian dollars through the middle of the week. The spike higher was not to last however, and the pair looks far more comfortable trading below .7400 as we head into the US employment numbers later today. There is little economic news of material impact scheduled in Australia next week, but consumer sentiment and wage price data will offer passing interest. In the US the retail sales data on Thursday offers focus ahead of industrial production and capacity utilisation numbers on Friday. Targeting either end of the .7250 -.7450 range in the wholesale market for those with the luxury of time looks to offer good value.
The current interbank midrate is:    AUDUSD 0.7343

The interbank range this week has been:    AUDUSD 0.7236 - 0.7428
Tuesday 4th Aug 1:30pm(NZT)
Continued weakness in commodities and broad based unwavering support for the US dollar has kept the Australian dollar under pressure this past week. The local currency traded to fresh cycle lows, albeit briefly, on Friday at 0.7237. There was a sharp snap higher from those lows triggered by the release of the US employment cost index which printed with the weakest reading on record, but once again the market was happy to buy USD’s on any period of weakness and the pair eventually drifted lower. Friday’s release of US employment data is shaping up to be a very interesting one. I can’t imagine the market will be so quick to buy US dollars again should non-farm payrolls also disappoint. But between then and now we have plenty of other data to digest. In the next few hours Australian retail sales hit the wires followed by the Reserve Bank of Australia’s rate statement. Thursday then sees Australian employment change due for release. Absent of any big data surprises, the Australian dollar should find continued support on dips toward 0.7200, while the initial topside barrier comes in with resistance around 0.7350.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
AUD/USD 0.7275 0.7200 0.7350 0.7237 - 0.7362

Friday 31st July 2:00pm(NZT)
The Australian dollar has remained broadly under pressure from the USD this week, although it hasn’t plummeted to fresh lows. A period of relative AUD strength mid-week saw the pair trade up to 0.7362, but it was short lived. In the past 12 hours USD strength has forced the AUD back down toward recent lows around 0.7255. US dollar strength in recent days has come even though the FOMC statement failed to give any clear indication a September interest rate hike is on the cards, and even though US GDP for the second quarter was a little softer than forecast. These factors would suggest that further USD appreciation in the near term may be difficult to achieve, absent some positive data surprises. As such, and as long as the AUD continues to hold above 0.7255, there is potential for a recovery back toward 0.7350. Any break below 0.7250 would quickly turn the picture negative again. From the US next week we have ISM manufacturing and non-manufacturing PMI’s, the trade balance and non-farm payrolls data. While from Australia we get retail sales, the RBA rate meeting, the trade balance and employment data all set for release.
The current interbank midrate is:    AUDUSD 0.7296

The interbank range this week has been:    AUDUSD 0.7255 - 0.7362
Tuesday 28th July 3:00pm(NZT)
The Australian dollar has continued to be pressured this past week, mainly on the back of soft commodity prices and poor Chinese data. The currency traded to fresh cycle lows below 0.7300 on Friday in the wake of declining Chinese manufacturing PMI data. Further volatility in Chinese stocks yesterday don’t help the outlook for the Australian dollar, although the wider market ‘risk off’ sentiment we saw as a result actually supported the local currency for a time. With the majority of the market positioned long (brought) USD and short (sold) AUD, the unwinding of some of those positions helped the local currency briefly recover back above 0.7300. Stronger US durable goods orders data eventually encouraged USD buyers back into the market and the pair fell back to recent lows. The risks remain skewed to the downside. Only a move back above 0.7330 would bring that into question. We have a couple of key releases from the US this week with the FOMC rate statement and GDP data out on Thursday and Friday respectively. While from Australia we have a speech from Governor Stevens to draw focus along with building approvals and the producer prices data.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
AUD/USD 0.7272 0.7200 0.7400 0.7261 - 0.7446

Friday 24th July 1:30pm(NZT)
The Australian dollar has struggled to maintain any periods of strength seen against the US dollar this week. Twice the pair rallied up over 0.7400 only to be quickly forced back down again. That been said, the AUD has managed to hold above Monday’s fresh cycle low of 0.7330, at least so far anyway. The risks at the moment are skewed to further AUD weakness, although there does seem to be a lack of longer term downside momentum right now. On the topside the key level to watch is 0.7440. Any break above there would open the way for a broader recovery toward 0.7550 or potentially 0.7600. Until then selling into strength is recommended for eventual tests lower. From Australia next week we have building approvals, import prices and producer prices data. While from the US we get durable goods orders, CB consumer confidence, the FOMC rate statement, GDP, the employment cost index and Chicago PMI.
The current interbank midrate is:    AUDUSD 0.7350

The interbank range this week has been:    AUDUSD 0.7330 - 0.7446
Tuesday 21th July 5:00pm(NZT)
The Australian dollar continues to etch out fresh cycle lows against the USD. Yesterday’s dip to 0.7330 was just the latest in a long list of lower lows and lower highs. Broad based weakness in commodities and the trend toward a stronger USD are doing the damage to the AUD for the time being. Key downtrend resistance is now seen around 0.7560, and while below that level the risks remain skewed toward further AUD weakness. Today’s RBA minutes will provide some further insight into the central bank's thinking, and they should also reflect the slight easing bias the bank maintains. The bank will be pleased with recent Australian dollar weakness, although they are likely to repeat further declines are necessary. Largely second tier data from the US this week shouldn’t have a major impact, with the broader trend toward a stronger USD well intact at this stage.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
AUD/USD 0.7376 0.7300 0.7500 0.7330 - 0.7488

Friday 17th July 1:30pm(NZT)
We have seen some choppy price action in the AUD this week, but overriding theme has been broad based support for the USD. This has kept the AUD on the back foot and last night it traded to fresh cycle lows at 0.7352. We have seen a small recovery from that level, which could extend as far as 0.7500 resistance, but with Fed Chair Yellen confirming this week that an interest rate hike will be appropriate this year, the market seems happy to buy USD’s on any period of weakness. Look for 0.7300 to 0.7500 to contain price action of the coming week. From Australia we have the minutes from the last Reserve Bank of Australia meeting to draw focus along with the latest reading on inflation. While from the US we get existing home sales, weekly unemployment claims, manufacturing PMI and new homes sales.
The current interbank midrate is:    AUDUSD 0.7415

The interbank range this week has been:    AUDUSD 0.7352 - 0.7495
Tuesday 14th July 4:00pm(NZT)
The Australian dollar has been under pressure for the past couple of weeks, driven lower by soft iron ore prices and concerns about Chinese stocks. The currency did benefit temporarily from better than forecast employment data on Thursday, but it failed toward the 0.7500 level. With a Greek deal now on the cards we are see a return of risk appetite and this is benefiting the USD as potential barriers to a Fed interest rate hike have now been removed. As such the AUD is within spitting distance of cycle lows at 0.7373. For the time being the risks remain skewed to the downside. From Australia this week we have business confidence, consumer sentiment and inflation expectations to digest. While from the US we get producer prices, inflation and consumer sentiment, along with Fed Chair Yellen’s semi-annual testimony before the senate banking committee.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
AUD/USD 0.7425 0.7300 0.7500 0.7373 - 0.7498

Friday 10th July 3:30pm(NZT)
It has been a tough week for the Australian dollar. Weakness in commodities, particularly iron ore, combined with collapsing Chinese stocks to help to drive the AUD to its 0.7373 low. We have seen something of a recovery from that low, with the local currency buoyed by better than forecast employment data yesterday, and some slightly ‘dovish’ Fed minutes that weighed on the USD. This has reduced the downside risk for the pair and further gains toward 0.7550 may well be seen. That level should provide a tough topside barrier. There is still a high level of uncertainty with regard to both Greece and the Chinese stock market, so there is plenty of potential for volatility. Fed Chair Yellen is set to speak tonight and then next week to draw focus we have data on US retail sales, producer prices, inflation and consumer sentiment. While from Australia we get business confidence, consumer sentiment and inflation expectations data.
The current interbank midrate is:    AUDUSD 0.7485

The interbank range this week has been:    AUDUSD 0.7373 - 0.7648
Tuesday 7th July 2:30pm(NZT)
The past week has seen a sharp decline for the Australian dollar driven lower by disappointing retails sales data and renewed softness in iron ore prices. US data has been mixed recently and the market has reduced the chance of a September interest rate hike to around 30%. In the face of this the USD remains well supported thanks in part to safe haven flows on the back of Greek uncertainty. The pair traded to fresh cycle lows at 0.7454 in the early stages of this week and we’re currently not far above that level. The immediate focus is on the RBA rate statement out this afternoon. The central bank is expected to leave interest rates unchanged, but signal their continued easing bias. There is resistance on the topside around 0.7550 and then again at 0.7600. The latter level will likely contain any period of strength over the coming week. On Thursday we also have Australian employment data to digest, while from the US this week we have the trade balance, the FOMC minutes, weekly unemployment claims and a speech from Fed Chair Yellen to draw focus.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
AUD/USD 0.7485 0.7350 .7550 0.7454 - 0.7738

Thursday 2nd July 2:30pm(NZT)
The Australian dollar started the week on the back foot as risk aversion swept the market thanks to the announcement of a Greek referendum. But from the early lows of 0.7590 the AUD recovered strongly making gains against the US all the way up to a high of 0.7738 yesterday afternoon. Broad US dollar strength last night however turned the pair around and this has pushed the pair back down toward 0.7640. The USD has been supported by solid economic data along with expectations for another strong non-farm payrolls release tonight. That data will determine near term direction for the pair heading into next week when from Australia we have the RBA rate statement and employment change numbers to digest.
The current interbank midrate is:    AUDUSD 0.7640

The interbank range this week has been:    AUDUSD 0.7590 - 0.7751
Tuesday 30th June 2:00pm(NZT)
The Australian dollar has lost ground to the USD this week weighed on by declining Chinese stocks and risk aversion in the wake of the Greek referendum announcement. The pair briefly traded below 0.7600 in early trade yesterday, although we did see a good bounce from there overnight. The one thing we can be sure about is that there is plenty of potential for further volatility over the coming week. If we get a sustained break below 0.7600, then the target will be a test of cycle lows at 0.7530. While support around 0.7600 contains the downside, expect further ranging between there and 0.7850. RBA Governor Stevens is due to speak tonight, then later in the week from Australia we get building approvals, the trade balance and retails sales data. From the US we have manufacturing PMI and the all-important non-farm payrolls data to draw focus.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
AUD/USD 0.7663 0.7600 0.7850 0.7590 - 0.7762

Friday 26th June 2:00pm(NZT)
The Australian dollar continues to tread water against the USD with almost no change in price from where we were two weeks ago. Key support around 0.7600 hasn’t even come close to been tested recently with dips toward 0.7680 attracting buyers. On the topside, levels over 0.7800 run into good selling interest and can’t be sustained. Mixed data from the US has failed to ignite further broad gains the US dollar and as such we remain trapped within recent ranges. Expect more of the same of the coming days. Next week from Australia we have a speech from Governor Stevens to digest along with building approvals, trade balance and retail sales data. While from the US to draw focus we have CB consumer confidence, ISM manufacturing PMI and non-farm payrolls data.
The current interbank midrate is:    AUDUSD 0.7730

The interbank range this week has been:    AUDUSD 0.7681 - 0.7810
Tuesday 23th June 2:30pm(NZT)
We have seen close to a 200 point (two cent) range in this pair over the past week. Overall however, the Australian dollar is currently trading close to the level it was at the beginning of last week. The lows of 0.7661 traded in the lead up to Thursday morning FOMC statement, but the AUD quickly jumped from that level after the market was disappointed by a lack of signal from the Fed about a potential September interest rate hike. Less than 24 hours later the week’s high of 0.7847 traded, but since then the pair has moderated back toward 0.7730. There is little from Australia this week to drive price action and the lead will therefore come from offshore. To that end from the United States this week we have get durable goods orders, manufacturing PMI, GDP, personal spending and consumer sentiment data. Support on the downside comes in at 0.7600, while 0.7850 may well continue to contain any near term strength.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
AUD/USD 0.7720 0.7600 0.7850 0.7661 - 0.7847

Thursday 17th June 2:00pm(NZT)
The Australian dollar is currently trading close to where it started the week, although we have seen some choppy price action between then and now. A period of broad US dollar strength in the lead up to this mornings Fed rate statement saw the pair trade to the week’s low at 0.7661. The move was quickly reversed however, after the Fed failed to provide any confirmation around potential timing of an interest rate hike and this pushed the pair all the way back up to 0.7769. Resistance toward 0.7800 provides the initial barrier to further gains, and we may well see a test of that level over the coming days. Downside support at 0.7600 looks set to contain any periods of weakness in the near term. There is little to get excited about from Australia next week, while from the US we have inflation data and the Philly Fed manufacturing index set for release tonight. These will be followed next week by existing home sales, durable goods orders and GDP.
The current interbank midrate is:    AUDUSD 0.7728

The interbank range this week has been:    AUDUSD 0.7661 - 0.7783
Tuesday 16th June 2:30pm(NZT)
The Australian dollar has spent much of the past week ranging between 0.7700 and 0.7800 against the USD. Both countries have seen generally positive economic releases recently, although it is the USD that has failed to take advantage of the data. Friday night in particular proved interesting after the USD couldn’t sustain gains made in the wake of better than forecast producer price and consumer sentiment data. This may be an indication the market is overly long USD’s (bought USD positions) and these positions could see a clean out at some stage. If that were to develop the AUD could well break back above 0.7800 for a time. We have the RBA minutes to digest in the coming hour and then on Thursday from the US we have the FOMC rate statement. Also from the US this week we have building permits, inflation and the Philly Fed manufacturing index to draw focus.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
AUD/USD 0.7765 0.7600 0.7800 0.7641 - 0.7785

Friday 12th June 2:00pm(NZT)
The Australian dollar has made gains against the USD this week, boosted by improving local data and wider market volatility. Even a speech by RBA Governor Stevens who said the central bank was open to cutting interest rates further only caused a temporary dip, as he qualified the statement by suggesting he didn’t think it would have the desired effect. Data from the US has also been supportive of their economic recovery going forward, although the USD hasn’t been able to capitalise on it. The key levels to watch at the moment are support around 0.7600 and resistance just over 0.7800. Selling toward 0.7800 remains the favoured play with the longer term outlook suggesting we will see an eventual break below 0.7600. Next week should prove interesting in the US with the Fed meeting and rate statement to draw focus along with building permits and inflation data. From Australia we just have the RBA minutes to digest on Tuesday.
The current interbank midrate is:    AUDUSD 0.7745

The interbank range this week has been:    AUDUSD 0.7602 - 0.7785
Tuesday 9th June 2:00pm(NZT)
We have seen some volatile trading in this pair with a range of over 200 point in the past week. The AUD traded down toward 0.7600 on Friday night in the wake of strong US employment data, but we have seen a big bounce from that level in the past 24 hours. There was nothing fundamental to drive the recovery and as such the risks are skewed toward renewed Australian dollar weakness. We do have Australian data in the form of business confidence out this afternoon which could easily influence. Later in the week from Australia we get consumer sentiment and employment change data along with a speech from Governor Stevens. From the US this week we have retail sales, producer prices and consumer sentiment data to digest. The broader trend toward a stronger USD is certainly still in play, but for the time being the AUD seems to be finding support between 0.7550 and 0.7600. Until we get a sustained break below that band of support the risk of further sharp corrective bounces will remain. Selling into those bounces remains the favoured strategy.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
AUD/USD 0.7696 0.7600 0.7800 0.7602 - 0.7817

Friday 5th June 1:00pm(NZT)
The Australian dollar made solid gains against the USD in the first half of the week. It was helped by the Reserve Bank of Australia’s rate statement and better than forecast GDP data. Broad US dollar weakness also played a part, as action in the wider market saw the USD under some pressure across the board. The pair turned around in the wake for poor Australian retails sales data, and a very poor Australian trade balance result. Although the pair is still well off the lows of 0.7600 seen early in the week, another test of that level could still be on the cards if tonight’s key US employment data comes in strong. The market is expecting a gain in non-farm payrolls of 225k, and any result at, or above, that should see further USD appreciation. Next week from the US we have retail sales, producer prices, and consumer sentiment data to digest. While from Australia we have business confidence, consumer sentiment, inflation expectations and employment change all set for release.
The current interbank midrate is:    AUDUSD 0.7683

The interbank range this week has been:    AUDUSD 0.7600 - 0.7817
Tuesday 2nd June 2:30pm(NZT)
The Australian dollar has been under relentless pressure from the USD this past week, driven on two fronts. Broad based US dollar strength has played a part with data from the States largely supporting the case for an interest rate hike in September. But the local currency has also suffered after very disappoint private capital expenditure data which suggests the economy is having a tough time transitioning away from mining led growth. For the time being the cycle lows of 0.7530 set back on the 2nd of April have yet to be breached, but it may just be a matter of time. A break below there would open the way for 0.7280. A longer term target may well be a move toward 0.7000 by the end this year. We have the Reserve Bank of Australia rate meeting to digest this afternoon, then later in the week GDP, retails sales, and trade balance data will draw focus. From the States this week we have the key releases of non-manufacturing PMI and non-farm payrolls to digest.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
AUD/USD 0.7627 0.7530 0.7730 0.7600 - 0.7839

Friday 29th May 2:00pm(NZT)
The US dollar has made gains across the board this week, buoyed by improvements in economic data and the prospect of a Fed interest rate hike as early as September. Against the Australian dollar those gains have been particularly sharp thanks to some very disappointing local data released yesterday. Australian private capital expenditure figures were so soft they have significantly increased the chance of another interest rate cut from the RBA (Reserve Bank of Australia). In just over two weeks the AUD has fallen from a high of 0.8163 to a low last night of 0.7620, and there is nothing to suggest the move is running out of steam. The current target is a test of the early April low at 0.7530. A break below that level will turn the medium term target to 0.7250. There is a lot to digest from the US next week with PMI data from the manufacturing and nonmanufacturing sectors, along with the non-farm payrolls report. While from Australia we have building approvals, GDP, trade balance data, and an RBA rate meeting.
The current interbank midrate is:    AUDUSD 0.7660

The interbank range this week has been:    AUDUSD 0.7620 - 0.7932
Tuesday 26th May 2:00pm(NZT)
The Australian dollar has seen relentless pressure from the USD over the past week. The AUD tried to bounce from minor support around 0.7860 on Friday afternoon, and made it as far as 0.7931, before a combination of US inflation data and comments from Fed Chair Yellen saw the USD once again dominate. This drove the AUD back down through support at 0.7860, trading to a low of 0.7805. The start of this week has seen quiet trading conditions with holidays in much of Europe and the United States. Things could well liven up again tonight however with key US data in the form of durable goods orders and consumer confidence set for release. 0.7860 now provides resistance on the topside and while the market holds below there the risks are skewed to further losses. The next level of downside support comes in at 0.7740 and this will provide the initial target should we see further USD strength. Still to come this week from Australia we have private capital expenditure and construction work done data, along with a speech from RBA deputy governor Lowe.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
AUD/USD 0.7820 0.7740 0.7860 0.7805 - 0.8009

Friday 22nd May 2:00pm(NZT)
The Australian dollar has been under pressure from the USD for much of this week. This come despite mostly disappointing data being released from the United States and the pair has only recently bounced from the week’s low of 0.7862. The Reserve Bank of Australia minutes confirmed what most had expected, that the central bank maintains an explicit easing bias, although there is little expectation of further action in the near term. The USD has seen broad support this week making gains across the board, but these gains are unlikely to be sustained without some improvement in economic data. There is minor support around 0.7860 in the AUD and we may well see a move back toward 0.8000 develop over the coming days. The key driver for any potential bounce may well be the release of tonight’s US inflation data. A soft result here may be the ‘straw to break the camel’s back’ and this would put the US under some real pressure. We also have a speech from Fed Chair Yellen to digest this evening. Next week to draw focus we have durable goods orders, CB consumer confidence and GDP data. While from Australia we get data on construction work done along with private capital expenditure.
The current interbank midrate is:    AUDUSD 0.7896

The interbank range this week has been:    AUDUSD 0.7862 - 0.8089
Tuesday 19th May 1:00pm(NZT)
The Australian dollar remains well supported against the USD, although we have seen a pullback from the highs of 0.8161 that traded late last week. Initial support comes in at 0.7970 and while the market holds above there, the risks are skewed to further gains. The immediate focus is on the release of the RBA minutes out in the next couple of hours. The minutes shouldn’t hold any big surprises but the market will be keen to gauge just how much of an easing bias the central bank currently has. From the US this week we have building permits, the FOMC meeting minutes, the Philly Fed manufacturing index, and inflation data to digest. Although the US dollar has recovered some ground in the past couple of days, these gains won’t be sustained if data continues to disappoint.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
AUD/USD 0.7988 0.7970 0.8160 0.7886 - 0.8161

Friday 15th May 1:30pm(NZT)
The Australian dollar has made strong gains against the USD this week driven largely by weakness in the US dollar. The local currency did react positively to the Australian budget release, but the bigger gains came in the wake of poor US retail sales data. The USD is suffering as the expected recovery of economic indicators from the very poor first quarter has so far failed to materialise. This, along with improvements in iron ore prices over recent weeks, has largely been responsible for the Australian dollar's recovery from levels below 0.7600 that were trading a month ago. The pair has managed to break above resistance around 0.8050 in recent days and while above that level the risks remain skewed to the topside. Next week from Australia we have the Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes to digest, along with consumer sentiment and inflation expectations data. From the US tonight we have University of Michigan consumer sentiment, then next week we have building permits, the Fed minutes and inflation figures to look forward to.
The current interbank midrate is:    AUDUSD 0.8055

The interbank range this week has been:    AUDUSD 0.7865 - 0.8161
Tuesday 12th May 1:00pm(NZT)
The Australian dollar has lost a little ground to the US dollar the past week, weighed on by some softer than expected data releases and a trimming of growth forecasts by the central bank. Although Friday’s release of US employment data added some volatility to the pair, the overall impact was negligible. A range of 0.7800 to 0.8000 looks likely to contain the pair in the near term with the favoured play being selling toward the upper end of that band. Tonight’s Australian budget release will draw focus as will tomorrow’s wage price index. From the US this week we get the latest reading on retail sales along with producer prices and University of Michigan consumer sentiment.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
AUD/USD 0.7898 0.7800 0.8030 0.7800 - 0.8030

Friday 8th May 1:30pm(NZT)
We have seen a very interesting week in terms of price action in the Australian dollar. The market was obviously positioned well short (sold) AUD’s heading into the RBA interest rate decision. After the decision to cut rates by 0.25% was announced the AUD was marked lower briefly trading at 0.7800, but it snapped back very quickly and a vicious short squeezed saw it trade up to 0.7900 within minutes. That squeeze continued over the follow in 24 hours helped some soft US data. The pair traded all the way up to 0.8030 before finally running out of steam. We saw further choppy price action in the wake of yesterday Australian employment data, but ultimately some broad USD strength in the past 12 hours has seen the pair drift lower. The focus is now on tonight’s US employment data and the expectation of a strong number is what has helped to drive USD gains overnight. Initial support comes in around 0.7800 while on the topside there are sellers above 0.8000. Next week from Australia we have NAB business confidence, the annual budget release, home loans and the wage price index. While from the US we get data on retail sales, producer prices, industrial production and consumer sentiment to digest.
The current interbank midrate is:    AUDUSD 0.7892

The interbank range this week has been:    AUDUSD 0.7800 - 0.8030
Tuesday 5th May 2:00pm(NZT)
The Australian dollar surged higher early last week trading to a high of 0.8071. Since then however, we have seen the pair retrace much of those gains and it now sits somewhat more comfortably just below 0.7850. The corrective pullback has been driven by increasing expectations for an interest rate cut from the Reserve Bank of Australia when they announce the result of their meeting later this afternoon. The US dollar has also seen some renewed buying interest despite some very mixed economic data. Near term direction is now in the hands of the RBA and the market believes there is an 80% chance of a cut to the cash rate. This would likely see the AUD back down toward support around 0.7700 initially. Whether or not the pair continues on the downside toward recent lows under 0.7600 will largely depend on the outcome of US data this week in the form of trade balance, ISM non-manufacturing PMI, and the all-important non-farm payrolls report. If, as the Fed believe, the economy will recover from the first quarter's growth ‘hiccup’ then the broad trend towards a strong USD will reassert itself. The market will however want to start to see hard data to support this case before further gains are made. On Thursday from Australia we also have employment change data and this could well add to potential volatility on the week. The market is looking for a more subdued gain in employment of +4.0K
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
AUD/USD 0.7840 0.7600 0.7850 0.7804 - 0.8071

Friday 1st May 2:45pm(NZT)
Up until last night the Australian dollar was one of the standout performers on the week. Broad based US dollar weakness combined with improving iron ore prices to see the pair rally all the way up to 0.8071. The Fed rate statement took a little shine off the pair as the FOMC seemed largely unconcerned about economic weakness in the first quarter. This saw the pair back toward 0.8000, but in the past 24 hours the Australian dollar itself has come under heavy selling pressure which has seen levels below 0.7900 trade. The trigger for this bout of AUD weakness was an article in the Sydney Morning Herald by a respected reporter that said the RBA will cut rates when they meet next week. Whether or not he has any greater insight into the RBA thinking than anyone else remains to be seen, but the market certainly reacted. Next week’s RBA meeting will be the main focus for the pair and it should add some further volatility. With the outcome of the meeting a very close call the currency could see a significant reaction either way. We also have a number of key US data releases to digest including the big one, being non-farm payrolls, at the end of the week. Initial support comes in around 0.7850 while on the topside 0.8050 should provide significant resistance.
The current interbank midrate is:    AUDUSD 0.7885

The interbank range this week has been:    AUDUSD 0.7765 - 0.8071
Tuesday 28th Apr 3:30pm(NZT)
The Australian dollar has made solid gains against the USD over the past week. Gains have come on the back of both Australian dollar strength and weakness in the USD. The USD pressure has been due to further soft data, the latest result being core Durable Goods orders data on Friday. While the AUD has found support from stronger than forecast inflation, and  the subsequent decrease in the odds of an interest rate cut in May. The pair has managed in the past 24 hours to trade up through resistance around 0.7850 and this opens the way for a test of 0.7930, and potentially 0.8050. There are a number of key releases from the US this week to digest. Consumer confidence and GDP hit the wires ahead of the key FOMC statement on Thursday morning Australian time. The week is rounded out with ISM Manufacturing PMI on Friday. From Australia we have import prices, private sector credit, and producer prices to draw focus.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
AUD/USD 0.7875 0.7850 0.8050 0.7683 - 0.7875

Friday 24th Apr 2:00pm(NZT)
The US dollar has been under some pressure recently, with disappointing data and a growing expectation the Fed will hold off hiking interest rates until later in the year. These factors helped the Australian dollar recover up toward key resistance around 0.7850 in the early stages of this week. RBA Governor Stevens then did his best to talk the currency down but his efforts were undone by a stronger than expected Australian inflation result. The pair is now trading around 0.7780 and we may well be in for further ranging between 0.7700 and 0.7850. The latter continues to provide a big barrier on the topside. The immediate focus now turns to key data tonight from the US in the form of durable goods orders. Next week from the US we have the latest Fed rate meeting and statement to digest along with consumer confidence, GDP and ISM manufacturing PMI data. While from Australia we will hear from Governor Stevens again ahead of producer prices data.
The current interbank midrate is:    AUDUSD 0.7778

The interbank range this week has been:    AUDUSD 0.7683 - 0.7842
Tuesday 21st Apr 3:30pm(NZT)
The Australian dollar made solid gains against the U.S dollar last week driven on two fronts. Broad based weakness in the USD certainly played a big part, but the local currency also received a boost from much better than forecast employment data. The pair traded all the way toward resistance around 0.7850 on Friday evening, but when US data in the form of inflation and consumer sentiment came in a touch stronger than forecast we saw a quick reversal. Tomorrow we have Australian inflation data to digest and then later in the week from the US we get existing home sales, unemployment claims, manufacturing PMI, new homes sales and durable goods orders. The rejection from 0.7850 and the relatively quick fall back below 0.7700 leaves the near term focus on the downside. There is minor support around 0.7660, with any move below there targeting 0.7600. The pair needs to recover back above 0.7740 to turn the focus back to the topside.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
AUD/USD 0.7692 0.7630 0.7850 0.7556 - 0.7842

Friday 17th Apr 1:00pm(NZT)
The Australian dollar came under pressure early in the week on the back of very soft Chinese trade data. This helped to drive the AUD down to the low of 0.7554. Since then however the AUD has made consistent gains on the back of U.S. dollar weakness and much better than forecast Australian employment data. The market has been happy to buy US dollars on any periods of weakness for months now, but this week we have seen something of a change in sentiment. Continued soft economic data from the States has raised real doubts in the minds of many forecasters as to just how quickly the U.S. economy will bounce back from the horrible first quarter. This has undermined that broad support for USD’s and helped the AUD recover. That AUD recovery was given a big shot in the arm yesterday after Australian employment data came in much better than forecast. The local currency shot up to 0.7775, and then further USD weakness overnight has seen it trade above 0.7800. The immediate target is a test of resistance around 0.7850. If the AUD can overcome that a move toward 0.8050 could well unfold. Tonight we have U.S. inflation and consumer sentiment data set for release. The outcome of these may well determine if 0.7850 resistance caps the pair or not. Next week from Australia we have the minutes from the last RBA meeting along with the latest reading of inflation. While from the U.S. we get existing home sales, manufacturing PMI and durable goods orders.
The current interbank midrate is:     AUDUSD 0.7790

The interbank range this week has been:     AUDUSD 0.7554 - 0.7822
Tuesday 14th Apr 2:30pm(NZT)
The Australian dollar has given up all the gains made in the wake of last Tuesday’s decision by the RBA to keep rates on hold. The AUD traded as high as 0.7737 on Thursday evening, but then drifted lower heading into the weekend. The currency then gave up significant ground yesterday in the wake of shocking Chinese trade data. Sharp falls in both imports and exports spooked the market and saw commodity currencies in general come under pressure. The AUD broke back below 0.7600 touching a 0.7554 lower overnight. If further downside is to be avoided the pair needs to recover back above 0.7600, something it has just managed in the past hour. Attention now turns to tonight’s release of U.S. retail sales data which could easily influence. Toward the end of the week U.S. inflation and consumer sentiment data will also draw attention. While from Australia this week the highlight will be employment change figures on Thursday.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
AUD/USD 0.7616 0.7500 0.7700 0.7554 - 0.7737

Friday 10th Apr 1:45pm(NZT)
The Australian dollar has been recovering ground against the US dollar over the past week. Sharp gains have been seen in the wake of last Friday’s poor US employment data, and then again after the Reserve Bank of Australia decided to keep rates on hold on Tuesday. It hasn’t been all one-way traffic however, with regular periods of USD strength causing corrective pullbacks, but the short term trend is certainly to the topside for now. If minor resistance around 0.7740 can be overcome, I would look for a test of 0.7850 over the coming week. Next week from the US we have retail sales, producer prices, building permits, inflation and consumer sentiment data to digest. While from Australia we get the latest readings on business confidence, consumer sentiment, inflation expectations and unemployment change.
The current interbank midrate is:    AUDUSD 0.7716

The interbank range this week has been:    AUDUSD 0.7571 - 0.7737
Thursday 2nd April 2:30pm(NZT)
The Australian dollar has been under relentless pressure from a resurgent USD this week. Australian economic releases have played little part in price action with the local currency weighed on by expectations of a rate cut from the RBA next week. Support around 0.7600 has largely contained the weakness however, and with longer term indicators suggesting downside momentum is waning that may continue to be the case. At this point it seems a cut from the RBA is already priced into the market and repeated failures to break lower have also increased the risk of a sharp bounce / recovery in the AUD. Data from the United States so far this week hasn’t, at least in my mind, added anything positive to their economic outlook, but the market seems happy to continue to buy US dollars on the back of the broader trend towards appreciation. The big focus, and risk, is tomorrow night’s non-farm payrolls release. Other indicators are suggesting we could see a softer result than the current +250k expected. Even if the headline number does achieve that figure, if wage growth data remains weak the USD may fail to gain much support. On the basis of that my risk / reward scenario is skewed toward USD weakness in the wake of the data.
The current interbank midrate is:    AUDUSD 0.7595

The interbank range this week has been:    AUDUSD 0.7583 - 0.7883
Tuesday 31st Mar 2:30pm(NZT)
The past week has seen the Australian dollar give back a considerable amount of the gains seen the week prior. The AUD has been weighed on by further falls in iron ore prices and general concerns about Chinese growth. The USD itself has seen broad based gains over the past week despite mixed data and some sharp revisions to first quarter growth projections. There is support for the pair around 0.7600 and below that the 2015 low of 0.7558 looms. At this stage I don’t expect the Australian dollar to plummet through there and I think USD gains will run out of steam ahead of Friday’s key employment report. A big payrolls number may well see that low under pressure, but until then expect the 0.7600 area to contain this weakness. Australian building consents and trade balance data over the coming days should only provide limited market impact.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
AUD/USD 0.7660 0.7600 0.7800 0.7634 - 0.7933

Friday 27th Mar 1:30pm(NZT)
The Australian dollar made good gains against the USD in the first half of the week, trading to a 0.7933 high. The AUD couldn’t kick on however, as data from the US, durable goods orders aside, has been supportive of the USD. Comments from the Fed’s Lockhart on Wednesday night also played a big part in supporting the USD and we have since seen the AUD drift back toward 0.7800. As long as the pair holds above 0.7800 there is potential for further attempts on the topside, a move below 0.7800 would open the way for a deeper correction targeting support around 0.7720. From Australia next week we have private sector credit, building approvals, and the trade balance set for release. While from the US we get consumer confidence, ISM manufacturing PMI, the trade balance, and non-farm payrolls data.
The current interbank midrate is:    AUDUSD 0.7835

The interbank range this week has been:    AUDUSD 0.7645 - 0.7933
Tuesday 24th Mar 12:30pm(NZT)
Last week’s FOMC rate statement, which saw a significant downgrade of US growth forecasts, caused some serious volatility in the foreign exchange markets. The USD got hit hard across the board and this drove the AUD up through key trend resistance around 0.7760. The break of that level was a big signal that further gains were likely with the initial target a test of 0.7900. Before the move developed however, and somewhat surprisingly, the USD made strong comeback. This drove the AUD all the way back to just above 0.7600, but the move was short lived and a sustained rally developed from there. In the past few hours we have finally seen a test of resistance around 0.7900, which has contained the gains for now. Key to whether or not the market can overcome that level will be the result of US inflation data tonight, and durable goods orders tomorrow. If that data prints on the softer side of expectation, the current rally will certainly continue. Any sustained break above 0.7900 will target 0.8050.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
AUD/USD 0.7892 0.7760 0.7900 0.7592 - 0.7899

Thursday 19th Mar 2:45pm(NZT)
The Australian dollar traded heavily for much of this week, threatening to test levels back below 0.7600 in the wake of the RBA minutes. Those minutes confirmed market expectations that another rate cut is likely over the coming months. The local currency then saw a turnaround in fortunes last night as the USD started to weaken across the board in the lead up to the FOMC statement. The market was right to be cautious about what the Fed would say as their statement, release early this morning, came across a lot more ‘dovish’ than the last one. This sparked a sharp decline in the value of the USD across the board. The Australian dollar traded as high as 0.7841 before markets calmed down somewhat. This move has now seen key trend resistance at 0.7760, that dates back to September last year, broken. This dramatically increases the chance of a much broader correction higher, one that should target 0.7900 over the coming week. Tonight from the US we have the Philly Fed manufacturing index to digest, then next week we get inflation data, new home sales, durable goods orders, and the final reading of GDP. From Australia next week we only have the RBA Financial Stability Review set for release.
The current interbank midrate is:    AUDUSD 0.7771

The interbank range this week has been:    AUDUSD 0.7574 - 0.7841
Tuesday 17th Mar 3:00pm(NZT)
The Australian dollar remains entrenched in a downtrend against the USD. The local currency did see a bounce late last week off recent lows which was driven in large part by softer than forecast US data. But that bounce struggled at the first line of resistance around 0.7730 and this keeps the focus on the downside, at least for now. We do have a couple of key releases this week which could easily impact. The RBA minutes are set for release this afternoon. The market is expecting this to confirm the bank remains on course to cut rates again over the coming months. Focus will then turn to the FOMC rate statement out early on Thursday morning. The Fed are expected to ‘tweak’ the wording of the statement which would be a signal they remain on track to hike rates around June. If however, they acknowledge the recent weakness in many economic indicators the USD could see further pressure. If we do get a ‘dovish’ statement from the Fed, the key topside level to watch in the AUD comes in around 0.7770. Any sustained break above there would be a warning signal that a much bigger correction is unfolding. Until that level breaks however, the major downtrend that started in early September 2014 remains intact.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
AUD/USD 0.7645 0.7630 0.7850 0.7561 - 0.7724

Friday 13th Mar 12:30pm(NZT)
The Australian dollar was under pressure from the USD for much of this week. Soft Australian business confidence data didn’t help, and employment data largely in line with expectations failed to provide much support. The Australian dollar traded to fresh cycle low at 0.7561 before some profit taking on short (sold) positions turned the pair around. That bout of profit taking extended dramatically overnight after the US produced another set of soft retail sales data. The USD lost ground across the board and this helped to dive the AUD back up over 0.7700. The Australian dollar could make back further ground against the USD, potentially as high as 0.7850, but selling ahead of that level is recommended with the RBA firmly on track to cut interest rates again over the coming months. The big question is whether the Fed will stay the course and continue to signal an interest rate hike is coming around June, or will they be swayed by soft sales data and take a more cautious approach? To that extent, next week’s FOMC rate statement will be very closely watched. Other US releases to watch out for next week include industrial production, building permits and the Philly Fed manufacturing index. While from Australia we only have new vehicle sales, the RBA minutes, and the leading index to digest.
The current interbank midrate is:    AUDUSD 0.7702

The interbank range this week has been:    AUDUSD 0.7561 - 0.7845
Tuesday 10th Mar 2:30pm(NZT)
The Australian dollar tested resistance around 0.7850 repeatedly last week, but failed to overcome it. With the topside firmly capped, sellers wasted no time jumping in after the US released a strong non-farm payrolls report on Friday evening. The gain of 295k jobs was much better than forecast and this boosted the USD across the board. The AUD fell to below 0.7700, before a small bounce ensued. The risks are now firmly on a test of recent cycle lows at 0.7623 over the coming week or two. To draw focus from Australia this week we have data on consumer sentiment, inflation expectations, and employment change. While from the US we get retail sales, producer prices, and consumer sentiment numbers.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
AUD/USD 0.7671 0.7630 0.7850 0.7686 - 0.7856

Friday 6th Mar 2:00pm(NZT)
The decision by the Reserve Bank of Australia not to cut interest rates on Tuesday boosted the Australian dollar which rallied up to resistance around 0.7850. The currency spent much of the week ranging below that level, but could not sustain any move above there. The failure to continue higher eventually took its toll and overnight the USD has regained its dominance driving the AUD back toward initial support around 0.7740. Whether or not we break below that level in the near term will largely come down to the result of tonight’s US non-farm payrolls data. A strong number will encourage further selling and 0.7740 will likely give way. That would open the way for a move toward the recent cycle lows around 0.7630. Next week from Australia we get business confidence, consumer sentiment, inflation expectations and employment change data. While from the US we have retail sales, producer prices, and consumer sentiment data to look forward to.
The current interbank midrate is:    AUDUSD 0.7782

The interbank range this week has been:    AUDUSD 0.7753 - 0.7856
Tuesday 3rd Mar 2:30pm(NZT)
The Australian dollar staged a short lived flurry above 0.7850 resistance last week, but the move couldn’t be sustained. Since then the USD has seen gradual appreciation and the AUD has been weighed on by soft private capital expenditure data and the prospect of a potential rate cut from the RBA this afternoon. The market is split right down the middle in terms of cut or no cut expectations and as such there is likely to be significant volatility around the announcement. Initial support comes in around 0.7740, although this is unlikely to provide much assistance in the event of a cut. A move toward 0.7650 would likely unfold should the RBA adjust interest rates again. If the central bank holds off cutting this afternoon the pair should get back up to test 0.7850 or even 0.7900 again. Gains past there are unlikely unless the bank signals a very neutral policy stance. Later in the week from Australia we get GDP data, retails sales, and the trade balance. While from the US we have ISM non-manufacturing PMI, the trade balance, along with the all-important monthly employment report.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
AUD/USD 0.7757 0.7650 0.7850 0.7741 - 0.7912

Friday 27th Feb 1:00pm(NZT)
It has been an interesting week for this pair. The Australian dollar managed a solid break above 0.7850 resistance on Wednesday, helped by better data on Australian construction and a slightly ‘dovish’ tone from Yellen’s testimony. The AUD maintained its gains above 0.7850 until last night’s US data in the form of inflation and durable goods caused the USD make a strong comeback. There is minor support around 0.7740 and this should contain the downside for now. Key to direction over the coming week will be the outcome of Tuesday’s RBA rate meeting. It’s a very close call whether they cut again or hold off until May. Once the RBA decision is out of the way we still have GDP, retail sales, and the trade balance to digest. Tonight from the US we have GDP data to draw focus and next week we get the ISM manufacturing and non-manufacturing PMI’s along with key employment data.
The current interbank midrate is:    AUDUSD 0.7807

The interbank range this week has been:    AUDUSD 0.7741 - 0.7912
Tuesday 24th Feb 2:30pm(NZT)
We have seen little overall direction for this pair over the past week. Prices have been trading within a 100 point range below the key resistance level of 0.7850. That is likely to remain the case heading into tonight’s important testimony from Fed Chair Yellen. This event has the potential to spark a broad move in the value of the US dollar. The market will be looking for any indication as to whether the Fed are likely to hike interest rates in June or not, and that expectation will drive the USD in the near term. The 0.7850 resistance level remains key. A sustained break above there would open the way for a much broader correction back to 0.8000. If Yellen suggests the Fed remain on course to hike interest rates in June the Australian dollar will likely see pressure and target the recent cycle lows toward 0.7600.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
AUD/USD 0.7803 0.7630 0.7850 0.7751 - 0.7849

Thursday 19th Feb 2:30pm(NZT)
A couple of releases have played key roles in seeing the Australian dollar maintain a somewhat firmer footing against the USD this week. The Reserve Bank of Australia minutes on Tuesday suggest somewhat less urgency in cutting rates than the market had assumed was the case. A cut next month is now less likely with many forecasters picking May as the likely date for the next cut. This morning we have also seen the minutes from the latest Fed meeting and these have shown the first hint that the Fed may hold off tightening rates in June. The Fed may well prefer to keep rates lower for longer waiting to see evidence of continued growth and a bottom in inflation. A test of resistance around 0.7850 seems likely for the AUD in the near term. There is also a very real chance the pair could break above that level and this would open the way for a move back to 0.8030. Next week from Australia we have private capital expenditure data to draw focus. While from the US we get New Home Sales, Inflation Durable Goods Orders, and GDP.
The current interbank midrate is:    AUDUSD 0.7814

The interbank range this week has been:    AUDUSD 0.7646 - 0.7838
Tuesday 17th Feb 3:30pm(NZT)
After staging a sharp recovery from the lows of 0.7646 seen in the wake of last Thursday’s Australian employment data, the Australian dollar has since languished around the 0.7750 area. The AUD has failed to make any gains in the face of some weaker than expected US data, although that doesn’t rule out a test of resistance around 0.7850 at some stage. I do suspect that level will cap any periods of strength in the near term. There is little in the way of economic data set for release from Australia for the remainder of the week, so focus will turn to offshore releases. From the US however, there is plenty to digest including building permits, producer prices, industrial production, the FOMC minutes, and the Philly Fed manufacturing index. Expect a range of 0.7650 to 0.7850 over the coming week.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
AUD/USD 0.7785 0.7650 0.7850 0.7646 - 0.7842

Friday 13th Feb 2:30pm(NZT)
We are continuing to see heightened levels of volatility in many currency pairs and price action in the AUDUSD over the past 24 hours is a good example if this. Yesterday’s soft Australian employment data saw the Australian dollar trade down close to recent lows at 0.7646. Overnight however, we have seen a sharp rebound with the local currency recovering all yesterday's losses. The move was driven by soft US data and something of a recovery in commodity prices and it now brings into question the chance of any further downside in the near term. Direction is now a very tough call and the risk of a broader recovery toward resistance around 0.7850 has dramatically increased. Next week from Australia we have the minutes from the latest RBA meeting to digest. While from the US we get a key reading on consumer sentiment tonight, and this will be followed next week by building permits, producer prices, and the FOMC minutes.
The current interbank midrate is:    AUDUSD 0.7746

The interbank range this week has been:    AUDUSD 0.7646 - 0.7874
Monday 9th Feb 4:00pm(NZT)
The Australian dollar staged a strong recovery from recent lows in the second half of last week, thanks in part to big squeeze of US dollar positions. This saw the AUD trade up to resistance around 0.7860 before running out of steam. The pair was testing that level again on Friday night just ahead of key US employment data, but that positive employment result quickly turned the market around and forced the AUD back down under 0.7800. Risks in the near term are now focused on the downside again with buyers of US dollars encouraged by the very healthy employment picture. There are plenty of local releases to draw attention this week with a speech from RBA Governor Stevens today followed over the coming days by business confidence, consumer sentiment, inflation expectations and employment change. From the US the focus turns to retail sales and consumer sentiment data out on Thursday and Friday respectively.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
AUD/USD 0.7770 0.7630 0.7860 0.7629 - 0.7874

Thursday 5th Feb 2:30pm(NZT)
The Australian dollar is currently trading not far at all from where it ended last week. That fact does however mask the significant volatility we have seen over the past few days. The AUD traded to a fresh cycle low against the USD at 0.7629 on Tuesday afternoon. This came after the Reserve Bank of Australia decided to cut interest rates by 0.25%. The AUD remained under pressure for a few hours before we saw a very sharp reversal driven by a dramatic USD squeeze. Soft US data and a bounce in commodity prices helped to trigger the move and the local currency traded back up above 0.7840, which is higher than where it was just ahead of the RBA announcement. The pair has since settled down somewhat and while 0.7850 caps the topside the risk is the pair will eventually turn back down. We do however have key US employment data on Friday night and one must be mindful of the risk that a very weak number could trigger an even bigger squeeze up through 0.7850. If that were to develop a move toward 0.8000 is likely. The exceptional volatility in the market at the moment provides as much opportunity as it does risk. Working live orders at desired levels is recommended as some price moves are only lasting a short period of time before being completely reversed. Next week from the US we have retail sales and consumer sentiment, while from Australia get readings on business confidence, consumer sentiment, inflation expectation and employment change.
The current interbank midrate is:    AUDUSD 0.7755

The interbank range this week has been:    AUDUSD 0.7629 - 0.7906
Tuesday 3rd Feb 4:00pm(NZT)
Recent sharp declines in the Australian dollar have paused for the time being and a small recovery to just over 0.7800 was seen last night. That recovery was helped by a couple of soft data points released from the US in the past few days. A weaker than expected US GDP figure on Friday combined with a fall in the ISM manufacturing index last night has seen the USD give back some ground against most other currencies over the last 24 hours. However, direction from here will be determined by the outcome of today’s Reserve Bank of Australia meeting. An interest rate cut should see the AUD quickly trade down through 0.7700, although I suspect the central bank won’t pull the trigger just yet. They could easily signal a move to an easing bias however and in this situation dips in the AUD will likely be limited. If the RBA simply maintain their current neutral bias the Australian dollar would stage a sharp rally which could eventually test resistance around 0.8000.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
AUD/USD 0.7812 0.7700 0.7900 0.7722 - 0.8023

Friday 30th Jan 2:00pm(NZT)
The Australian dollar spent the first part of this week treading water above 0.7900 as the market waited for Thursday morning’s Fed statement. Since then the AUD has lost significant ground trading down to 0.7722 last night. Broad based USD strength has certainly played a part with the Fed largely staying on course for a rate hike around the middle of this year. But a significant portion of the decline has come on the back of Australian dollar weakness. The risks around next week’s RBA meeting are definitely weighing on the currency with markets pricing in a 50% chance of a cut. This comes despite recent inflation data that showed no cause for concern or undue weakness. It seems the global environment is driving expectations with a number of other central banks recently either easing or softening their stance. The AUD is now trading at levels last seen in 2009 and in this environment it’s very difficult to say where the weakness will stop. There does seem to be some support around 0.7700, but caution is advised as we are in a period of significant volatility and markets could well overshoot any levels that might seem reasonable. Tuesday’s RBA meeting is the main focus next week, but we also have key data from the US in the form of non-farm payrolls on Friday.
The current interbank midrate is:    AUDUSD 0.7783

The interbank range this week has been:    AUDUSD 0.7722 - 0.8048
Tuesday 27th Jan 4:30pm(NZT)
The Australian dollar lost ground for most of last week, but has managed to stabilize, and even recover from recent lows, in the early stages of this week. There is no denying the longer term trend which is firmly to the downside, and although we could easily see a corrective bounce back toward 0.8000, selling into periods of strength is the recommended strategy. Further weakness in commodity prices, particularly iron ore which recently hit a five year low, provides an overhang that will continue to weigh. There are some key releases this week which could easily dictate near term direction. Tomorrow we have Australian inflation data then on Thursday morning the FOMC statement hits the wires. Will a strong USD, low inflation and global growth concerns see the Fed waiver, or will they continue to indicate interest rate hikes in the second half of this year are coming? The week is rounded out with Friday’s release of US GDP data.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
AUD/USD 0.7922 0.7800 0.8000 0.7857 - 0.8230

Friday 23th Jan 2:00pm(NZT)
Data from Australia this week has had little impact on the value of the AUD. The currency has suffered at the hands of a strong USD that has made broad based gains. A particularly sharp downside move came in the wake of the surprise rate cut announcement from the Bank of Canada. The Canadian dollar got hammered and the other commodity currencies of New Zealand and Australia followed suit. In the past few hours the Australian dollar has traded just under the psychological level of 0.8000, although that seems to have contained the weakness for the time being. Although the broader trend is down, a corrective bounce from 0.8000 could easily develop and in the current environment of high volatility, a move as high as 0.8200 cannot be ruled out. Selling into any periods of strength is recommended however, as the USD looks set to continue its broad based gains over the medium to long term. Next week from Australia we get business confidence, inflation, and producer prices data. While from the US have durable goods orders, consumer confidence, new home sales, the FOMC statement and GDP data to digest.
The current interbank midrate is:    AUDUSD 0.8033

The interbank range this week has been:    AUDUSD 0.7996 - 0.8255
Tuesday 20th Jan 3:30pm(NZT)
The Australian dollar saw plenty of pressure from the USD throughout December and in the early stages of January the pair traded to a low of 0.8033. Since then we have seen choppy trading conditions between that level and 0.8294 on the topside. That high was very short lived and only came on the back of broad position squaring in the wake of the surprise Swiss National Bank announcement. Discounting that move, the resistance around 0.8250 seems a more reasonable topside barrier at the moment. Although Australia produced impressive employment data last week, there is still expectation from some forecasters that we could see a rate cut from the RBA at their meeting on February 3rd. This will only serve to strengthen the topside resistance and further investigations below 0.8100 look likely over the coming weeks. From the United States this week we have building permits, housing starts, weekly unemployment claims and manufacturing PMI data to digest. While from Australia we get consumer sentiment data tomorrow and inflation expectations on Thursday.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
AUD/USD 0.8200 0.8030 0.8250 0.8069 - 0.8294

Friday 19th Dec 1:00pm(NZT)
The Australian dollar traded to fresh cycle lows against the USD this week as the Fed took a small step toward hiking rates. Volatile commodity prices and a fall in Chinese factory activity have also weighed on the AUD, which has been in a significant downtrend against the USD for the past four weeks. At this point it looks like the Fed are on track to increase interest rates around the middle of next year and this is underpinning demand for US dollars. There is some support around 0.8100 and so far that has contained the weakness, but until the AUD can recover back above 0.8220 the downside remains the risk. A move up through 0.8220 would change the outlook and warn that a broader correction higher is unfolding. The target for such a correction would be the 0.8400 level.
The current interbank midrate is:    AUDUSD 0.8167

The interbank range this week has been:    AUDUSD 0.8108 - 0.8298
Tuesday 16th Dec 4:00pm(NZT)
The Australian dollar has remained under pressure this past week, thanks in part to continued declines in commodity prices, trading to four year lows just above 0.8200. Encouraging US data in the form of retail sales, consumer sentiment and capacity utilization has helped support the USD as we head into what should be an important FOMC rate statement on Thursday morning. The market is keen to get a hint of the timing for the first rate hike and this will be key in determining near term direction for the USD. There is now no data of significance released in Australia until next year. From the US however, along with the FOMC statement we also have inflation data to digest. By all accounts liquidity in the market is already drying up and the holiday period will only be thinner. This can mean quite trading with little action, or exaggerated moves due to the lack of liquidity. With everything going on in the world at the moment, I suspect the latter is more likely.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
AUD/USD 0.8225 0.8100 0.8300 0.8202 - 0.8372

Thursday 11th Dec 4:00pm(NZT)
In the early stages of this week we saw disappointing readings from Australian business confidence and consumer sentiment, both of which weighed on the Australian dollar. The local currency traded to a fresh cycle low to the USD at 0.8225 before staging a recovery back over 0.8300. Profit taking on bought USD positions has certainly added to the volatility this week and this helped the AUD off its lows. In the past couple of hours however we have seen some better than expected Australian employment data which has helped the AUD trade back up over 0.8350. Whether or not the pair can have a crack back over 0.8400 will likely come down to the result of US data set for release in the next 48 hours. We have retails sales data tonight followed by producer prices and consumer sentiment tomorrow. Softer than forecast results from any of those figures will encourage further USD profit taking and this could drive the AUD back up over 0.8400. From Australia next week we have the RBA minutes along with the Mid-Year Economic and Fiscal Outlook from the Treasury to digest. While from the US we have building permits, inflation and the FOMC statement set for release.
The current interbank midrate is:    AUDUSD 0.8345

The interbank range this week has been:    AUDUSD 0.8225 - 0.8427
Tuesday 9th Dec 3:30pm(NZT)
The Australian dollar has seen relentless pressure from the USD over the past week. Very poor GDP data has weighed on the AUD and we now have a number of forecasters calling for rate cuts from the RBA next year. Then the USD saw broad based gains on the back of some stellar employment gains on Friday evening which has increased the risk of rate hikes in the US coming sooner than expected. This pair has now seen a strong downside leg that started from just under 0.8800 in the middle of November and there are no signs of it abating yet. Further losses toward 0.8100 could easily eventuate heading into year end. Later this week we do have Australian employment data to draw focus. Ahead of that we get consumer sentiment and inflation expectations. From the US this week we have retail sales, producer prices and consumer sentiment data to digest.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
AUD/USD 0.8258 0.8100 0.8300 0.8261 - 0.8541

Thursday 4th Dec 3:30pm(NZT)
It has been a tough week for the Australian dollar that has been under pressure on a number of fronts. Falling commodity prices have played a major part in recent losses and yesterday’s shockingly weak GDP data only added to the negative sentiment. This contrasts with US data that for the most part has been very supportive of the USD over the past week helping the big dollar to make gains across the board. The AUD traded to the lowest level in four and a half years yesterday at 0.8387. In the past couple of hours the local currency has seen some respite thanks to a better than forecast outcome from retail sales, however this is unlikely to be sufficient to change the recent trend. Tomorrow night we get the all-important US employment numbers and this data will likely set the tone heading into next week. From Australia next week we have business confidence, consumer sentiment, inflation expectations and employment change. While from the US we have retail sales, producer prices and consumer sentiment data to draw attention.
The current interbank midrate is:    AUDUSD 0.8400

The interbank range this week has been:    AUDUSD 0.8387 - 0.8614
Tuesday 2nd Dec 1:30pm(NZT)
The Australian dollar made fresh cycle lows to the USD on Monday, weighed on by further declines in commodity prices. The pair traded to a low of 0.8418 before staging a bounce back above 0.8500 overnight. We have building approvals out early this afternoon, but the main focus will be on the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) rate statement due out later today. No change is expected from the central bank but their view on the current level of the AUD will draw attention. Later in the week from Australia we also get retail sales and GDP data. From the US this week there is also plenty for the market to digest. We have a number of Fed speakers scheduled and the market will be keen to get a sense of their current thinking with regard to the timing of rate hikes. We also have key data in the form of non-manufacturing ISM and the non-farm payroll employment report. Although the current risks to the AUD remain to the downside, there are so many key releases from both countries over the coming days that price action going forward will be determined by these outcomes.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
AUD/USD 0.8485 0.8400 0.8600 0.8418 - 0.8619

Friday 28th Nov 1:00pm(NZT)
The Australian dollar has been under pressure for much of this week and traded to a four year low against the USD at 0.8481, before staging a small recovery. Declining iron ore prices, which hit a five year low, have weighed along with negative comments from the RBA’s Deputy Governor who suggested rate cuts weren’t off the table. Strong US GDP data supported the USD early in the week, but since then demand has been undermined by a rash of softer than forecast results and this has helped the AUD regain some composure. The risks however, are still skewed to further AUD weakness with the break to fresh cycle lows signalling the path of least resistance is to the downside. From Australia next week there is plenty to digest with GDP, the RBA rate meeting, building approvals, retails sales and the trade balance. While from the US there is also plenty of key data to digest with the highlights being manufacturing and non-manufacturing PMI’s, the Fed’s Beige Book and non-farm payrolls.
The current interbank midrate is:    AUDUSD 0.8525

The interbank range this week has been:    AUDUSD 0.8481 - 0.8720
Tuesday 25th Nov 3:30pm(NZT)
The Australian dollar has lost ground to the USD over the past week thanks to strong US data and an announcement from BHP Billiton that they are to significantly cut spending and investment. That BHP Billiton news was out overnight and it has caused the AUD to give back much of the gains made in the wake of the Chinese rate cut announcement on Friday evening. The pair now trades just above 0.8600 and a move toward the recent cycle lows of 0.8538 remains a distinct possibility. Tomorrow from Australia we get data on construction work done data and on Thursday we have private capital expenditure figures to digest. From the US this week we get consumer confidence, durable goods orders and new home sales data.  Selling into any strength toward 0.8700 is the favoured strategy at the moment with a slight downside bias in play.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
AUD/USD 0.8595 0.8540 0.8750 0.8567 - 0.8745

Friday 21st Nov 1:30pm(NZT)
After trading up to 0.8793 in the early stages of the week, the Australian dollar quickly turned around and downside price action has been prevalent since then. The currency was weighed on by a speech from RBA Governor Stevens that suggested monetary policy could be on hold of a very long time due to the subdued nature of wage and jobs growth. Improving economic data from the US, particularly over the past couple of days has also helped the USD to a degree, however there is some concern the big dollar hasn’t taken full advantage of it. The USD failed to kick on with gains last night after better than expected results from inflation, existing home sales, and the Philly fed index. This could be a warning the market is overly long (brought) USD’s and if that is the case there is the chance of a much bigger cleanout of those positions at some stage. A move back up through 0.8700 would be the first warning sign that this is unfolding. Until then however, the risks remain skewed to the downside and further investigations below 0.8600 are likely. Next week from Australia we have private capital expenditure data and the Treasuries mid-year fiscal outlook to digest. While from the US we get GDP, consumer confidence, durable goods orders, and new home sales data.
The current interbank midrate is:    AUDUSD 0.8630

The interbank range this week has been:    AUDUSD 0.8567 - 0.8793
Tuesday 18th Nov 3:00pm(NZT)
The Australian dollar continued to make gains against the USD heading into the closing stages of last week. The USD struggled to find support on Friday from better retail sales and consumer sentiment data, with the market instead focusing on declining inflation expectations. This helped lift the pair back up over 0.8750 after earlier trading down to 0.8650. Key support now comes in around 0.8680 and while the market holds above there, the focus remains on the top side. The RBA minutes released in the past hour haven’t held any real surprises and as such the impact on the AUD has been muted. The only other release of note from Australia this week will be a speech from RBA Governor Stevens tonight. While from the US tonight we get producer prices data then later in the week the focus turns to building permits, the FOMC minutes, inflation data and the Philadelphia Fed manufacturing index. Initial resistance is seen toward 0.8800 and if the market manages to overcome that the pair could extend the rally to 0.8900.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
AUD/USD 0.8715 0.8600 0.8800 0.8592 - 0.8793

Friday 14th Nov 1:30pm(NZT)
The Australian dollar has stage a significant recovery against the USD this week, helped by a strong improvement in business conditions and news that a free trade deal with China is on the cards. The gains are probably as much the result of short covering (sold positions squaring up) as anything else and even talk of FX intervention yesterday by the RBA’s Kent only provided a temporary dip. The initial target is 0.8800, but this move could easily extend all the way to 0.8900 over the coming week or so. The focus in Australia now turns to the RBA's minutes set for release on Tuesday, just ahead of the Treasuries mid-year economic and fiscal outlook. While from the US we get producer prices, building permits, the FOMC minutes, inflation data and the Philadelphia Fed manufacturing index.
The current interbank midrate is:    AUDUSD 0.8708

The interbank range this week has been:    AUDUSD 0.8542 - 0.8760
Tuesday 11th Nov 2:00pm(NZT)
The Australian dollar struggled throughout much of last week losing significant ground to an appreciating USD. This came despite better than forecast results from retail sales and October employment data. The pair traded to a low of 0.8542 in the hours leading up to Friday night’s key US employment report. The failure of that data to live up to market expectations resulted in significant selling pressure on the USD. As such the pair subsequently made a strong run back up to 0.8680 before finally running out of momentum. With the immediate pressure now taken off the downside, we could see the AUD try to stage a more significant recovery. If the pair can overcome minor resistance around 0.8680, a move back up toward 0.8800 is not out of the question. Still to come this week from Australia we have business confidence, consumer sentiment, the wage price index and inflation expectations. While from the US later in the week we get retail sales and consumer sentiment data to digest.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
AUD/USD 0.8620 0.8550 0.8750 0.8542 - 0.8759

Friday 7th Nov 1:30pm(NZT)
The US dollar has reigned supreme this week making significant gains across the board. These gains have been most notable against the AUD, which underperformed many other currencies during these bouts of USD strength. The Australian dollar hasn’t been helped by weaker than expected Chinese data and the surprise downward revisions to prior employment numbers from the Australian Bureau of Statistics. The AUD did recover some ground on the back of better than expected retails sales and then October employment data, but USD buyers were happy take advantage of any periods of weakness in the big dollar. This eventually saw the AUD break to fresh cycle lows below 0.8650. The market is now firmly focused on tonight’s US employment data with all indications that this could be a very strong result. If that does eventuate the USD will make further gains and likely drive the AUD down toward 0.8500 initially. Looking longer term, with support at 0.8650 now out of the way a move toward 0.8100 over the coming weeks / months is very likely. Next week from Australia we have business confidence and consumer sentiment data to digest along with the wage price index, and inflation expectations. While from the US attention will turn to retail sales and consumer sentiment data.
The current interbank midrate is:    AUDUSD 0.8562

The interbank range this week has been:    AUDUSD 0.8554 - 0.8849
Tuesday 4th Nov 2:30pm(NZT)
The Australian dollar has seen relentless pressure from the USD over the past week and the pair looks like it wants to test recent cycle lows at 0.8641. The USD has gained support from better than expected data and a somewhat more positive tone from the Fed after their rate meeting last Thursday. The Australian dollar itself has seen some pressure after softer than forecast building approvals and disappointing Chinese manufacturing data. The firm rejection from resistance around 0.8900 mid last week keeps the focus on the downside and reaction at 0.8640 will be key. If that level can contain the downside for now, a bounce back toward 0.8800 could easily develop. A sustained break below 0.8640 however, will open the way for a broader move down toward 0.8100 over the coming weeks. Data out this week will be key in deciding what happens on a test of the key 0.8640 level. From Australia today we still have retail the RBA rate statement to digest after today’s solid retail sales numbers. On Thursday we have employment change data to digest. From the US this week we have the trade balance, ISM non-manufacturing PMI, non-farm payrolls data and a speech from Fed Chair Janet Yellen.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
AUD/USD 0.8670 0.8640 0.8850 0.8680 - 0.8911

Thursday 30th Oct 3:30PM (NZT)
Up until early this morning the Australian dollar was making consistent gains against the USD. These gains came largely on the back of USD weakness with some mixed data from the US undermining support for the big dollar. But in the early hours of this morning the Federal Reserve released their latest rate statement and this caused a wave of USD buying. The end of quantitative easing, along with a more positive tone from the Fed saw the USD make strong gains across the board. This drove the AUD down from 0.8900 to levels below 0.8800 in just a few minutes. The risks remain skewed to the downside and a test of 0.8700 can’t be ruled out over the coming days. I don’t however, expect the AUD to threaten the recent cycle lows around 0.8650 and a continuation of range trading between that level and 0.8900 on the topside is likely over the coming week. Next week is a big one from Australia with building approvals, retail sales, the trade balance and employment change all set for release along with the latest Reserve Bank of Australia rate statement. While from the US we have key data in the form of ISM manufacturing and non-manufacturing PMI’s, the trade balance and the monthly employment report.
The current interbank midrate is:    AUDUSD 0.8768

The interbank range this week has been:    AUDUSD 0.8723 - 0.8911
Tuesday 28th Oct 2:30pm(NZT)
The past week has seen the Australian dollar trade sideways within the increasingly familiar range of 0.8730 to 0.8830. The top of that range has been tested over the past 48 hours. This was on the back of some relative USD weakness, thanks to a number of softer than forecast data releases from the States, but so far 0.8830 has held firm. This week we have some key data set for release along with the Fed monetary policy statement, which hits the wires on Thursday morning. Durable goods orders and consumer confidence numbers are out tonight and on Thursday evening we get GDP data. All of these releases have the ability to significantly move the market and could provide the impetus for the AUD to break its recent range. A move below 0.8730 would target the recent cycle lows of 0.8643, while a break above 0.8830 will open the way for a test resistance at 0.8900.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
AUD/USD 0.8805 0.8650 0.8850 0.8723 - 0.8831

Thursday 23th Oct 3:30PM (NZT)
The Australian dollar has remained range bound against the USD over the past week with little overall direction. The pair traded up over 0.8820 on a number of occasions, but failed to kick on and eventually pulled back. We have seen both Australian and US inflation data come in a touch above expectations over the past 24 hours and as a consequence these releases have provided little fresh impetus to drive the pair. Support comes in around 0.8650, with resistance on the topside toward 0.8850. Expect those two levels to contain price action over the coming week. Next week we get the Australian Treasury’s mid-year economic and fiscal outlook, along with import prices and producer prices. While from the US we have durable goods orders, consumer confidence, the Fed rate meeting and GDP data to draw focus.
The current interbank midrate is:    AUDUSD 08760

The interbank range this week has been:    AUDUSD 0.8691 - 0.8831
Monday 20th Oct 3:30PM (NZT)
The past week has seen plenty of volatility for this pair, but little overall direction. The week’s highs traded during a period of heightened volatility across all markets as the USD came under heavy selling pressure in the wake of big declines in US stock markets and long term interest rates. US sentiment then improved in the later stages of the week after a number of better than forecast data releases and this helped to calm the markets. The Australian dollar could drift a touch higher ahead of tomorrow’s RBA minutes thanks to news out of China over the weekend of fresh liquidity injections by the Peoples Bank of China, but expect levels around 0.8850 to continue to provide a tough barrier on the topside. Domestically the focus will then turn to inflation data out on Wednesday. From the US this week we also have inflation data along with existing home sales, new home sales, and weekly unemployment claims.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
AUD/USD 0.8780 0.8650 0.8850 0.8677- 0.8852

Friday 17th Oct 2:30PM (NZT)
The past week has seen some very volatile price action in this pair driven by wild moves in global stock and interest rate markets. The action really kicked off on Wednesday night after much weaker than expected results from US retail sales and the Empire State manufacturing index. Sharp declines that followed in stocks and US long term interest rates quickly flowed through into the foreign exchange market where the USD came under heavy pressure across the board. This drove the Australian dollar as high as 0.8852 before a correction ensued. Overall we have seen little real direction for this pair in the past three weeks with the market gyrating wildly between 0.8650 and 0.8900. This week’s price action has just been more of the same with the pair currently trading mid-range around .8750 . While key support at 0.8650 contains the downside, we are likely to see further trading in the now well defined range. Next week from Australia we get the minutes from the last RBA meeting, inflation data, and the Treasury’s mid-year economic and fiscal outlook. While from the US we also have inflation, along with manufacturing PMI and new home sales data.
The current interbank midrate is:    AUDUSD 0.8777

The interbank range this week has been:    AUDUSD 0.8654 - 0.8852
Tuesday 14th Oct 2:30PM (NZT)
Swings in the value of the US dollar continue to be the driving force for this pair at the moment. A wave of USD selling in the wake of last Thursday’s Fed minutes saw the AUD trade up to 0.8898, before a sharp turnaround ensued. The USD recovery drove the pair back down to key support at 0.8650, but again this level contained the downside and another bounce higher is currently in progress. Better than expected Chinese trade data released yesterday have helped support the Australian dollar and a test back over 0.8800 seems likely. Demand for USD’s has also been undermined by weakness in US stock markets and declining US long term interest rates. This increased volatility is likely to remain for the foreseeable future and it does provide opportunity for those looking to transact. A recovery back above 0.8800 could easily extend up toward 0.8900 and those looking to purchase USD’s should take advantage of such a move. As long as key support around 0.8650 continues the downside the risk remains for investigations higher as the pair consolidates / corrects the sharp decline seen from 0.9400 only six weeks ago. Still to come this week from Australia we have business confidence, consumer sentiment, inflation expectations and a speech from RBA Assistant Governor Debelle. While data from the US this week to draw focus includes retail sales, the Philly Fed manufacturing index, building permits and consumer sentiment.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
AUD/USD 0.8750 0.8650 0.8850 0.8654 - 0.8898

Friday 10th Oct 2:30PM (NZT)
Movements in this pair over the past week have been driven almost entirely by swings in demand for US dollars. At the very end of last week the pair tested support around 0.8650 after much better than forecast US employment numbers were released. But somewhat tellingly, the USD failed to hold onto those gains in the early stages of this week, and this left the pair looking like a much broader correction higher was unfolding. The Fed minutes released early yesterday morning provided the trigger for just that correction as the market was somewhat surprised by the very ‘dovish’ tone of the minutes. This caused a wave of USD selling that drove the AUD up toward 0.8900 before USD buyers eventually emerged. The 0.8650 level has now provided key support on a number of occasions and I expect this level to continue to limit the downside in the near term. This pair has lost a lot of ground in a very short time frame have started selling off from 0.9400 at the beginning of September and a prolonged period of consolidation now seems likely. There is potential for a corrective rally as high at 0.9000 if minor resistance around 0.8900 is overcome. Selling into strength is recommended for those looking to purchase US dollars as the longer term trend is down and further tests of 0.8650 seem likely over the coming months.
The current interbank midrate is:    AUDUSD 0.8762

The interbank range this week has been:    AUDUSD 0.8643 - 0.8898
Tuesday 7th Oct 2:30PM (NZT)
The past week has seen some sharp moves in this pair driven by market positioning and economic data. Long (brought) USD positions were squeezed out of the market on Thursday afternoon as the AUD jumped up over 0.8800, having traded down to 0.8664 less than 24 hours earlier. These gains were short lived however, as better than forecast US employment data caused renewed USD buying. The pair then traded down to a fresh cycle low of 0.8643. However, in an indication that the market may still be overly long (brought) USD’s, the pair has seen a sharp bounce from that low. Wild swings back and forth like this could well be signalling a medium term low is being put in place. If that is the case a much broader correction up towards 0.8900 or even 0.9000 could well develop over the coming weeks. The key focus domestically this week comes in the form of today’s RBA rate statement and Thursday’s employment data. From the US we have the Fed minutes also set for release on Thursday.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
AUD/USD 0.8760 0.8650 0.8850 0.8643 - 0.8826

Friday 3rd Oct 3:30PM (NZT)
The Australian dollar made a fresh cycle low to the USD this week after disappoint retail sales figures saw the local currency come under heavy selling pressure. The pair traded down to 0.8664 before starting what has turned out to be a significant recovery. A raft of generally soft US data this week has seen USD buying dry up and this turned into something of a short squeeze in the AUD yesterday. The move was also helped by much better than forecast Australian building consents data which came in at 3.0% vs expectation of 1.1%. The pair recovered all the way toward 0.8820 before running out of steam. Over the last 12 hours we have seen the pair consolidate those gains in a tight trading range around 0.8800. Whether or not this squeeze higher continues will largely depend on tonight’s key US employment data. A disappointing result could well see further gains in the AUD as even more short (sold) positions get squeezed out. That however is not the favoured scenario. All indicators are that we should see a solid employment result in excess of 200k. That should encourage some renewed USD buying and help to cap any further gains in the AUD. Next week from Australia we have the RBA rate statement and employment change to draw focus. While from the US the focus turns to the Fed minutes set for release on Thursday morning.
The current interbank midrate is:    AUDUSD 0.8797

The interbank range this week has been:    AUDUSD 0.8664 - 0.8826
Tuesday 30th Sept 12:00PM (NZT)
The Australian dollar has seen relentless pressure from the USD this week, as the down trend that started earlier this month continues unabated. Broad US dollar strength has played a part in the move, but the AUD has also been dragged down by some sharp losses in the value of the NZD over the past week. Key topside resistance comes in around 0.8770 and while below there the risks are all skewed to further weakness. A move above 0.8770 would warn that a broader correction higher is unfolding. On the down side initial support comes in around 0.8650. Over the coming days from Australia we get retail sales, building approvals and the trade balance data to digest, along with the RBA’s testimony on housing market risks. From the US we have the manufacturing and non-manufacturing ISM indexes, the trade balance and the all-important employment report.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
AUD/USD 0.8721 0.8570 0.8770 0.8685 - 0.8925

Friday 26th Sept 3:30PM (NZT)
The Australian dollar has seen further pressure from the USD this week in a continuation of the selloff that started from 0.9400 back on the 6th September. The USD was buoyed by very good new home sales data and last night’s weekly jobless claims numbers suggest the employment market remains positive as well. The Australian dollar also seemed to get dragged down to a degree by the New Zealand dollar that came under intense selling pressure after an RBNZ press release yesterday. This helped the pair trade down to its low of 0.8775 overnight. We have seen a small bounce from that low, but key resistance comes in around 0.8840 and the overall downtrend won’t be threatened until level is overcome. While below 0.8840 the risks are skewed to further weakness. Next week from Australia we have retail sales, building approvals and the trade balance to digest. While from the US we get GDP and consumer sentiment data tonight followed by manufacturing and non-manufacturing PMI’s, the trade balance and non-farm payrolls next week.
The current interbank midrate is:    AUDUSD 0.8780

The interbank range this week has been:    AUDUSD 0.8775 - 0.8995
Tuesday 23rd Sept 4:00PM (NZT)
The Australian dollar has seen continued pressure from the USD over the past week and currently trades close to cycle lows at 0.8875. US dollar strength was seen in the wake of last Thursday’s FOMC statement, but recent losses have come on the back of AUD weakness. A negative report from Roubini Economics and further concerns about the Chinese growth have both weighted on the local currency. There is some support around 0.8850 however, and while the market holds above there potential for a corrective bounce exists. The market has seen a significant sell off from the 0.9400 level that was trading less than three weeks ago and it looks like downside momentum could be starting to wane. If we do get a significant break of support around 0.8850 the market will quickly turn its attention to the 2014 low of 0.8658. The economic calendar is pretty light from Australia this week with the financial stability review and a speech by RBA Governor Stevens the main highlights. From the US we have new home sales, durable goods orders and weekly unemployment claims to digest.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
AUD/USD 0.8880 0.8850 0.9050 0.8856 - 0.9111

Friday 19th Sept 2:00PM (NZT)
Offshore factors have been the main driver of this pair over the past week. The highs of the week traded in the wake of news out of China that the central bank was pumping liquidity into the banking system. The news of this ‘stimulus’ was seen a positive for commodity currencies like the AUD and negative for the USD. But that AUD strength was short lived as the FOMC statement took centre stage. That statement was supportive of the USD and as such the pair was driven to the week’s low of 0.8929. The Australian dollar has staged something of a recovery but it has so far failed to recover the psychologically important 0.9000 level. While the currency holds below there, the risks are skewed to further weakness. Next week is a quiet one for data from Australia with only the leading index and the RBA financial stability review both out on Wednesday. From the US we get existing home sales, new home sales and durable goods orders data.
The current interbank midrate is:    AUDUSD 0.8977

The interbank range this week has been:    AUDUSD 0.8929 - 0.9111
Tuesday 16th Sept 3:00PM (NZT)
The Australian dollar has been under pressure for much of the past week. Even record high employment data failed to turn the tide as the USD completely outperformed the local currency. Yesterday the pair traded below 0.9000 for the first time since March, after being weighed on by poor Chinese data released over the weekend. We have seen a small bounce from those lows, and taking into account the size of recent losses, a period of consolidation seems likely. Key resistance on the topside comes in around 0.9200 and selling into any potential strength toward that area is recommended as the USD should continue to appreciate over the coming months. From the US this week we have the key releases of producer prices, inflation, building permits, the Philly Fed manufacturing index and the FOMC statement.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
AUD/USD 0.9042 0.9000 0.9200 0.8986 - 0.9288

Friday 12th Sept 2:00PM (NZT)
It has been an interesting week for the Australian dollar that had been a standout performer for the couple of weeks prior. It now seems broad based USD strength has played catch up against AUD with the local currency falling sharply over the course of this week. You can’t really point to economic data being the cause, with small declines in business confidence and consumer sentiment more than offset by an unbelievably high employment change result. The positive market reaction to that employment number was only short lived as USD buyers piled in on the move up toward 0.9200 and this eventually drove the pair back down to 0.9100, where it currently trades. It seems like 0.9200 will now provide solid resistance on the topside and as long as the market trades below that level the risks are all skewed to further losses. From Australia next week we have the RBA minutes to draw focus, while from the US we get producer prices, inflation, building permits and the FOMC monetary policy statement.
The current interbank midrate is:    AUDUSD 0.9070

The interbank range this week has been:    AUDUSD 0.9090 - 0.9398
Tuesday 9th Sept 2:00PM (NZT)
It has been an interesting week for this pair with some large swings in price action, but little overall direction to show for it. Encouraging data from Australia helped the AUD to remain supported against USD for much of last week. When Friday’s US employment data came in well below expectation, the pair traded up toward resistance around 0.9400. These levels were short lived however, and the resulting USD recovery is a sign of just how positive current sentiment is toward the big dollar. The Australian dollar has lost over a cent to the USD in the early stages of this week, with no key driver behind the move. The increasingly familiar range of 0.9200 to 0.9400 looks likely to contain trade again for much of this week. From Australia we have consumer sentiment and employment change data to digest. While from the US the focus turns to retail sales and consumer sentiment data which are both set to hit the wires on Friday evening.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
AUD/USD 0.9280 0.9200 0.9400 0.9264 - 0.9398

Friday 5th Sept 2:30PM (NZT)
The Australian dollar has again been a standout performer this week. We saw a surge of demand in the wake of comments from RBA Governor Stevens that downplayed the chance of any further rate cuts. Economic data has also played its part with better than forecast results for building approvals, GDP and the trade balance. This has meant that despite some volatility, the AUD ends up largely unchanged against the USD from where it started the week. That is a strong result as the USD has actually gained against virtually every other currency on the back of continued positive US data. For the time being levels toward 0.9400 look a step too far and that should continue to cap the topside for now. There is however, plenty of support toward 0.9250 and this only serves to reinforce the broadly sideways trade we have seen in the pair since early April. Tonight’s US employment data will obviously draw a lot of attention and next week from the US we also get retail sales and consumer sentiment data. From Australia we have business confidence, consumer sentiment and employment change data to draw focus.
The current interbank midrate is:    AUDUSD 0.9342

The interbank range this week has been:    AUDUSD 0.9264 - 0.9389
Tuesday 2nd Sept 2:00PM (NZT)
The Australian dollar has been a solid performer lately, although recent gains against the USD have stalled ahead of 0.9380.  The local currency now awaits this afternoons RBA statement. Of particular interest will be the strength of language from the central bank around the current level of the AUD. The bank will likely repeat that they view the currency as high by historical standards, but if they go further in trying to talk the AUD down, the currency could see some selling pressure. If minor support around 0.9330 gives way, the pair will target 0.9280 initially. Later in the week from Australia we also get GDP, retail sales and trade balance data. There is also plenty from the US to draw focus with a number of releases expected to reinforce the current positive economic outlook. Both manufacturing and non-manufacturing PMI’s set for release along with the trade balance and Friday’s all important employment data.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
AUD/USD 0.9326 0.9200 0.9400 0.9273 - 0.9373

Friday 29th Aug 1:30PM (NZT)
It has been another positive week for the Australian dollar that has benefited from better than expected private capital expenditure data and a pause in the broad USD appreciation we had been seeing over the past few of weeks. US data has been almost uniformly positive and at some stage the USD will likely start appreciating again, but for now it seems happy to consolidate gains and catch its breath. This has allowed the AUD to recover from below 0.9300 toward 0.9360, where it currently trades. The reality is the Australian dollar has been range trading sideways against the USD since early April and 0.9250 to 0.9450 will likely contain price action over the coming month. From the US next week we get manufacturing and non-manufacturing PMI’s, the trade balance, and non-farm payrolls data. While from Australia we have building approvals, the current account, the RBA rate statement, GDP, retail sales and the trade balance.
The current interbank midrate is:    AUDUSD 0.9353

The interbank range this week has been:    AUDUSD 0.9273 - 0.9373
Tuesday 26th Aug 1:30PM (NZT)
Although the Australian dollar lost a little ground to the USD this week it was still one of the better performing currencies. A bout of USD strength saw the pair dip down to a low of 0.9242, but the AUD quickly recovered. Further tests lower are likely as the USD continues to appreciate, however there is plenty of support around 0.9200 which has contained any downside price action since late March. Until that level broken we can expect the pair to continue to range between 0.9200 and 0.9400. Later this week from Australia we get construction work done and private capital expenditure data. While from the US we have the key releases of durable goods orders, consumer confidence and GDP.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
AUD/USD 0.9290 0.9200 0.9400 0.9242 - 0.9343

Friday 22nd Aug 2:00PM (NZT)
The Australian dollar started the week on the front foot, making minor gains up to the 0.9340 level. But continued strong data from the United States this week eventually drew USD buyers out of the woodwork and this helped to drive the pair down a full cent to 0.9240. We have seen a decent bounce from that low in the past 24 hours but this is likely due to position squaring ahead of the Jackson Hole symposium this weekend. The market is expecting Fed Chair Janet Yellen to remain ultra-cautious on the economy when she speaks tonight and this will have driven those who are long (have bought) USD’s to cut their positions and lock profits in ahead of that event. The real risk in Yellen’s speech is that she echo’s the slightly more ‘hawkish’ tone of the Fed minutes and suggests rate hike could come sooner than expected. This will see a big move in markets that are not positioned for such an outcome. Next week from Australia we only have construction work done and private capital expenditure data to digest. While in the US the focus turns to new home sales, durable goods orders, GDP, and pending home sales.
The current interbank midrate is:    AUDUSD 0.9305

The interbank range this week has been:    AUDUSD 0.9242 - 0.9343
Tuesday 19th Aug 4:30PM (NZT)
The past week has been a largely positive one for the Australian dollar. Improvements in business confidence, consumer sentiment, and house prices have all helped the AUD make gains against the USD. In the last couple of hours the RBA minutes have also given the AUD a small boost, although there was nothing ground breaking in them. The pair now trade just below minor resistance at 0.9340. A move above there would open the way for gains toward 0.9450. Governor Stevens is set to speak tomorrow and this provides the only other highlight on the AUD economic calendar. From the US however, there are a number of key releases and events scheduled. Inflation data tonight will be followed by the Fed minutes and then we have the Jackson Hole Symposium on the weekend. Any hint at a slightly more ‘hawkish’ stance from the Fed will see the USD make good gains.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
AUD/USD 0.9338 0.9250 0.9450 0.9251 - 0.9336

Friday 15th Aug 3:55PM (NZT)
After a little initial pressure from the US dollar this week, the Australian dollar has seen grinding appreciation, as broad based USD weakness eased the way for an AUD outperformance. The momentum has eased around the initial resistance level of .9320, and current pricing remains around that level. Providing the lead in the near term is the remaining economic data for the week in the US. Next week the minutes of the respective central banks will offer the primary focus, as well as the latest inflation and manufacturing data. Resistance between .9320 - .9340 should provide quite a test for further AUD appreciation, but if the US longer term interest rate remains at the year lows, a move up through these levels can not be discounted. Those looking to buy AUD may like to target the wholesale level just above .9200, as this level has provided support since the start of April.
The current interbank midrate is:    AUDUSD .9320

The interbank range this week has been:    AUDUSD .9241 - .9326
Tuesday 12th Aug 2:00PM (NZT)
The Australian dollar took a hit last week on the back of soft employment change data and a big jump in the unemployment rate. The pair traded to a low of 0.9241 and we have yet to see much in the way of a recovery. This comes despite the RBA suggesting they suspect the employment result was largely due to sample changes. While the AUD holds below minor resistance around 0.9280 the risks are still skewed to the downside. A break above 0.9280 would likely see the AUD test the next level of resistance at 0.9330. I would expect that level to cap any near term strength. On the downside the target is a test of support around 0.9210. Data from Australia this week that could influence includes consumer sentiment, the wage price index, and inflation expectations. While from the US the focus turns to retail sales, producer prices and consumer sentiment.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
AUD/USD 0.9255 0.9250 0.9450 0.9241 - 0.9367

Friday 8th Aug 2:30PM (NZT)
The Australian dollar spent much of the week recovering some ground against the USD, however that all changed after yesterday’s key employment data. The softer than expected employment change result combined with a big jump in the unemployment rate to see the AUD snap sharply lower. Downside pressure has remained in place over the past 24 hours and with continued strong US data hitting the wires a test toward 0.9200 looks likely. Resistance between 0.9280 and 0.9300 should cap any strength in the near term with all the risks firmly skewed to further weakness. Business confidence and consumer sentiment provide the highlights next week from Australian along with the wage price index and inflation expectations. While from the US next week the focus turns to retail sales, producer prices, and consumer sentiment.
The current interbank midrate is:    AUDUSD 0.9268

The interbank range this week has been:    AUDUSD 0.9246 - 0.9367
Tuesday 5th Aug 1:30PM (NZT)
The recent downward momentum of the Australian dollar seems to have eased, and the local currency has put in a significant bounce from its 0.9276 low. That recovery was triggered in large part by the failure of the USD to continue to make gains. Although last week’s US GDP data was very supportive, the Fed meeting provided little impetus for further buying and Friday’s payrolls data was also a touch disappointing. It wasn’t that the employment numbers were soft, they were in fact very consistent with the ongoing economic recovery, but they just weren’t strong enough to put pressure on the Fed to start thinking about when to raise rates. Added to this was yesterday’s Australian retails sales data that came in stronger than expected and this helped boost the AUD a touch. The pair now trades right on resistance at 0.9335 and a move above here would likely see further gains toward 0.9400. This afternoon’s RBA rate statement should be a tame affair with no real change in the assessment of the economy expected from the bank. Thursday’s employment data could provide a better lead for the market with expectations for a gain of 13.5k.  From the US this week we have manufacturing PMI, factory orders, the trade balance, weekly unemployment claims and productivity data.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
AUD/USD 0.9325 0.9250 0.9450 0.9276 - 0.9416

Friday 1st Aug 1:50PM (NZT)
The Australian dollar has lost ground this week largely on the back of a strengthening USD. Wednesday nights much better than expected US GDP data triggered some sharp USD appreciation, and although there was some volatility around the Fed meeting release, the USD eventually managed to maintain that strength. The focus now turns to tonight’s key US employment report and all indications are it could be a strong number. If that proves to be the case it will certainly increase the risk of an earlier than expected rate hike by the Fed. The Fed themselves are certainly not intimating that, but they could change their tune quickly over the coming months if the economy continues to improve. With US long term interest rates starting to move higher, the stock market recently losing ground, and the USD showing signs of strength, it seems the markets are getting positioned for a more ‘hawkish’ Fed over the coming months. This could well be the start of some much broader trends. There is plenty from Australia next week to draw focus. Retail sales, the RBA rate statement and employment data are all set for release.
The current interbank midrate is:    AUDUSD 0.9306

The interbank range this week has been:    AUDUSD 0.9280 - 0.9424
Tuesday 29th July 1:30PM (NZT)
The Australian dollar has been a solid performer over the past week making gains across the board. Slightly stronger than expected inflation data was the key driver as the currency traded up to 0.9470 against the USD. The AUD has moderated a touch from there although it still trades above 0.9400 for now. This week from Australia we get building approvals and producer prices data to digest, however the real focus will be on the United States. It could well be a big week for the USD with a number of releases keenly awaited. US GDP on Wednesday night will be followed by the FOMC rate statement a few hours later, then on Friday we have non-farm payrolls data. The market will want to see a good bounce back in GDP from the horrendous first quarter, which was adversely affected by poor weather. From the FOMC it would be pleasing to see the start of debate around when to lift rates and if that does occur it will help to support the USD. Friday’s employment numbers should show another very strong result, especially considering the recent fall in weekly jobless claims to the lowest level since 2006. It’s hard to imagine all three of these events will line up perfectly to support the USD, but if they do, it could well signal the start of what should be a period of long term USD appreciation. That is something the market has been waiting to see for months now, but has yet to materialize.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
AUD/USD 0.9409 0.9250 0.9450 0.9361 - 0.9470

Friday 25th July 4:0PM (NZT)
The Australian dollar has had a positive week helped by solid inflation data and an improved reading on Chinese manufacturing. The currency traded up to a high of 0.9470 yesterday, but overnight it has given back some ground after the USD benefited from a very good jobless claims figure. Expectations for next Friday’s non-farm payrolls data may well get revised up and this should keep the USD on a firmer footing. The downside is protected by support at 0.9320 and if we do get some good economic figures out of the US next week that could well be a target. In the meantime selling into strength towards the 0.9450 level is recommended. Next week from Australia we have new home sales, building approvals, import prices and producer prices. While from the US we get  pending home sales, consumer confidence, manufacturing PMI and GDP, along with those non-farm payroll figures.
The current interbank midrate is:    AUDUSD 0.9419

The interbank range this week has been:    AUDUSD 0.9337 - 0.9470
Tuesday 22th July 2:30PM (NZT)
The Australian dollar has been capped around the 0.9400 level for much of the past two weeks and that continues to mark the first level of resistance. On the downside dips have been limited to 0.9330 and with no current overall direction, we can expect those two levels to continue to dominate in the near term. We do get Australian inflation data tomorrow and this could easily influence if it prints significantly away from the markets 0.5% expectation. The USD has strengthened a small amount recently but we are far from seeing the broad upward trend many would have expected by now. Data from the US this week could help with readings on inflation, existing home sales, new home sales and durable goods orders all set for release.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
AUD/USD 0.9376 0.9200 0.9400 0.9331 - 0.9401

Friday 18th July 4:0PM (NZT)
The Australian dollar has seen a little bit of pressure from the USD this week, although key support around 0.9330 has yet to be breached. The USD made small gains on the back of testimony from Fed Chair Janet Yellen early on Tuesday morning, and this was followed by the RBA minutes that failed to provide much direction for the local currency. In the past 12 hours we have seen some further AUD weakness after ‘risk off’ sentiment entered the market thanks to the downing of a Malaysian Airliner over the Ukraine. This pressured global stock markets and has seen the AUD trade back down toward support at 0.9330. That level has contained the downside since early June and it will take a break below there to open the way for further losses. Until that happens the chance of a bounce back toward remains. Any move down through 0.9330 will target 0.9220 initially. From Australia next week we have inflation data and a couple of speakers, while from the US the focus turns to inflation, existing home sales, new home sales, and durable goods data.
The current interbank midrate is:    AUDUSD .9360

The interbank range this week has been:    AUDUSD .9331 - .9403
Tuesday 15th July 1:05PM (NZT)
The Australian dollar is largely unchanged from where it was trading this time last week. The week’s high and low both traded within a few hours of each other in the wake of last Thursday’s employment data, but since then a tight range has developed around 0.9390. For its part the USD has failed to find much support from recent improving data and this week we have an number of other key releases. Fed Chair Janet Yellen is set to testify to the Senate Banking Committee tonight and we also get retail sales, producer prices, building permits and consumer sentiment data over the coming days. Locally the immediate focus will be on this afternoon’s release of the RBA minutes which are likely show the central bank continues to view the currency as high by historical standards. The impact of any such statement is likely to be muted. Business confidence and the leading index later in the week will also draw attention. In terms of levels to watch, 0.9340 to 0.9440 broadly defines the trading range we have seen for much of the past five weeks and it is still very much in play.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
AUD/USD 0.9390 0.9250 0.9450 0.9362 - 0.9433

Friday 11th July 1:30PM (NZT)
The Australian dollar has made gains this week helped by improving business confidence and continued weakness in the USD. Yesterday’s employment data saw the weeks high of 0.9433 briefly trade, but once the market saw the breakdown of full-time vs part-time jobs the AUD quickly lost its shine. The USD has remained under pressure even after positive data released over the past couple of weeks, and the Fed minutes on Thursday morning failed to provide any real support for buyers. We did see a little bit of risk aversion hit the market last night and as such the AUD came under some pressure, but it has largely recovered to currently trade just below 0.9400. If this is the start of a broader ‘risk off’ trend then the AUD could lose a lot more ground, but for the time being these market jitters seem to have been contained. For now minor resistance around 0.9450 should cap gains with key downside support coming in around 0.9320.
The current interbank midrate is:    AUDUSD 0.9381

The interbank range this week has been:    AUDUSD 0.9342 - 0.9433
Tuesday 8th July 2:45PM (NZT)
The Australian dollar came under some pressure in the second half of last week. It was weighed on by a poor trade balance result, negative comments from RBA Governor Stevens and soft retail sales data. We did get a much better than expected building approvals number but it did little to stem the negative sentiment that drove the currency down to a 0.9332 low. Trading since then has been pretty quiet with the US 4th of July holiday seeing a large part of the market take a long weekend. The currency has managed a small recovery that got a boost from this afternoon’s business confidence data. This has taken the AUD up through minor resistance at 0.9375. On Thursday this week we have the Fed minutes to digest and a few hours later we get Australian employment data. Those two releases should set the tone for the AUD heading into the weekend.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
AUD/USD 0.9385 0.9250 0.9450 0.9332 - 0.9504

Friday 4th July 12:30PM (NZT)
The Australian dollar performed well in the first half of the week and seemed to take heart from the RBA statement that held little in the way of surprises. The currency rallied up to just over 0.9500 in the move that had as much to do about USD weakness as anything else. Since then however, the AUD has been on the back foot. The pressure started after a shocking trade balance result on Wednesday and yesterday RBA Governor Stevens took the opportunity to talk it lower saying the currency is overvalued by most measures, and by more than a few cents. This was followed by weak Australian retail sales data and then last night’s much better than expected US employment data. As a result the AUD now trades some 150 points down from the weeks highs just below 0.9350. There is some support toward 0.9320 and while this level holds there is potential for a bounce. However, any move below that support would likely see a move down to 0.9220 develop.
The current interbank midrate is:    AUDUSD 0.9350

The interbank range this week has been:    AUDUSD 0.9332 - 0.9504
Tuesday 1st July 2:15PM (NZT)
So far resistance at .9450 has managed to curb further appreciation from the Australian dollar. Pressure on the US dollar has been intense at times and this has kept the AUD close to the top of its recent range, in the absence of any material economic news. The RBA monetary policy statement later on today obviously offers the near term focus and it looks like the AUD will remain in demand ahead of that announcement. From there the focus shift is to a myriad of economic data releases in both economies. Undoubtedly the primary piece of news will be the US unemployment numbers. The result certainly will provide direction, with the .9450 resistance looking the vulnerable side in the near term.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
AUD/USD .9427 .9250 .9450 .9355 - .9440

Friday 27th June 2:00PM (NZT) - Update
This week has seen choppy price action. After an initial Australian dollar spike higher on the back of the Chinese strong manufacturing numbers, the US dollar ground back throughout the middle of the week. This again changed following the disappointing US economic data and the pair sits just below the initial resistance .9420. Current levels offer an opportunity to buy US dollars at good value levels, albeit the opportunity may prove to be ongoing in the short term. From here we have the RBA monetary policy on Tuesday, ahead of building consent and retails sales numbers in Australia on Thursday. In the US, further home sales and manufacturing data provide focus ahead of the employment numbers on Thursday. Of interest will also be speeches from the respective central bank heads. The Fed’s Yellen due to speak later Wednesday, and RBA Governor Stevens mid Thursday.
The current interbank midrate is:    AUDUSD .9422

The interbank range this week has been:    AUDUSD .9324 - .9446
Tuesday 24th June 2:43PM (NZT)
It has been an interesting period for this pair over the last week. Apart from two periods of increased Australian dollar demand, the price action has been moribund for the most part. The first jump in demand came following the FED’s monetary policy announcement, and the second was yesterday’s Chinese manufacturing number. So the Australian dollar remains at seemingly elevated levels, albeit these levels may not last if the US economic data continues to improve as it has recently. To that end the focus for the remainder of the week is provided by the US. The consumer confidence, new home sales, durable goods sales and final GDP numbers all offer opportunity for movement. Current levels can be considered to offer good value buying of US dollars.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
AUD/USD .9426 .9250 .9450 .9324 - .9446

Friday 20th June 2:00PM (NZT) - Update
Ahead of the FED’s monetary policy announcement, the US dollar was applying reasonable pressure on the AUD. Decent US manufacturing, capacity utilisation, housing and inflation numbers couple with slightly dovish RBA meeting minutes to apply the pressure. However, that all changed following the Fed’s monetary policy statement, as the market applied renewed pressure on the US dollar. The decent Philadelphia Fed manufacturing numbers overnight tempered that AUD demand and the US dollar now looks to have curbed the AUD’s momentum. looking to next week, the focus is all about the smorgasbord of US data in the absence of any scheduled Australian news. Overtime it seems likely that the current levels will prove to have offered good value buying of US dollars, albeit this opportunity may exist for a some time yet.
The current interbank midrate is:    AUDUSD .9414

The interbank range this week has been:    AUDUSD .9324 - .9431
Tuesday 17th June 3:43PM (NZT)
This pair has seen very benign price action throughout the course of the last week. The most excitement came following the Australian employment numbers that saw a healthy shift from part to full time jobs. Overall the AUD remains elevated against the US dollar, but that does not look like changing in the near term. The resistance at .9425 has contained the appreciation for the time being, at similar levels to the highs seen in April. Expect more of the same this week, albeit increased uncertainty could stem from the Middle East. From a data perspective the US dominates with inflation numbers later on today, the FED’s policy meeting early Thursday Australian time and then the Philly Fed manufacturing survey on Thursday night. Current levels offer good value buying of US dollars, albeit this range could we persist for some time yet.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
AUD/USD .9362 .9225 .9425 .9345 - .9437

Friday 13th June 2:30PM (NZT) - Update
The US dollar has been under widespread pressure this week, and against the AUD is no exception. It has been mainly a case of grinding appreciation from the Australian dollar and the near term target must be resistance at .9450. With the geo-political concerns pressuring the US dollar, its hard to see a dramatic pull back from current levels in the near term. US consumer sentiment numbers later on today provide a focus ahead of the inflation data and Federal Reserve monetary policy meeting next week. With little top tier Australian economic news due next week, speeches from RBA Governors Kent and Stevens provide the domestic focus.
The current interbank midrate is:    AUDUSD 0.9410

The interbank range this week has been:    AUDUSD 0.9320 - 0.9437
Tuesday 10th June 1:00PM (NZT)
The Australian dollar performed well last week helped by a stable outlook from the RBA and better than expected GDP numbers. But as much as anything the AUD is benefiting from its failure to break below key support around 0.9200 that was tested on numerous occasions in late May and the early stages of this month. With 0.9200 providing a strong floor the market is now finding the path of least resistance is to the topside. Solid US employment figures on Friday evening saw a sharp correction lower, but its effect was short lived and the AUD has recovered in the early stages of this week. A test of 0.9400 looks likely at this stage and we will wait to see reaction at that level before looking further into the future. Morgan Stanley on the other hand are making a very big call predicting the AUD will head back to parity with the USD by the end of 2014. This call is based on demand for higher yielding AAA rated bonds, something the Australian government will be issuing plenty of the coming year. This afternoon we get business confidence data from Australia and later in the week we have consumer sentiment and employment change figures to draw focus. From the US we get retail sales, producer prices, and consumer sentiment.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
AUD/USD 0.9348 0.9200 0.9400 0.9234 - 0.9363

Friday 6th June 2:30PM (NZT) - Update
It has been a choppy week for the Australian dollar, but the net result is we have ended up a touch higher than where we began. A sharp drop in building approvals on Monday eventually saw the local currency trade down to the weeks low at 0.9234. But better data later in the week, most notably GDP, helped the AUD recover and some USD weakness last night added to the gains. The AUD now sits just below 0.9340 and direction from here will likely be dictated by tonight’s key US employment data. The market is looking for a gain in nonfarm payrolls of around 212k, and any result better than that should see the USD gain ground. 0.9200 remains the key downside support level and while above there the currency is likely to remain range bound between 0.9200 and 0.9400. That range has broadly contained the AUD since late March and is still very much in play. Next week from Australia we have business confidence, consumer sentiment, and employment data to digest. While from the US the highlights will be retail sales and consumer sentiment.
The current interbank midrate is:    AUDUSD 0.9330

The interbank range this week has been:    AUDUSD 0.9234 - 0.9346
Tuesday 3rd June 6:30PM (NZT)
The Australian dollar currently trades close to where it was this time last week at 0.9245. Between then and now however, we have seen some good moves on the back of local data. Last week’s private capital expenditure release caused the AUD to rally strongly and the high of 0.9329 traded in the hours after that data. Those gains were then largely undone yesterday after building consents came in significantly below expectation. Support towards 0.9200 is likely to contain the downside for now although there is plenty of data this week that could influence. From Australia we have the RBA rate statement later today, GDP tomorrow, and the trade balance on Thursday. From the US the highlights includes the trade balance, non-manufacturing PMI, and non-farm payrolls.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
AUD/USD 0.9248 0.9200 0.9400 0.9215 - 0.9329

Friday 30th May 2:00PM (NZT) - Update
The Australian dollar showed little direction for much of the week trading sideways around the 0.9240 level until the release of yesterday’s capital expenditure data. Dips toward support at 0.9200 proved only fleeting on the week, and that level was never seriously tested. We then saw a solid rally in the currency after yesterday’s data showed forecasted capital expenditure for 2014/15 was significantly higher than expected. This overwhelmed the initially negative headline number, and the currency continued its march higher overnight to now trade just above 0.9300. From a technical point of view this is positive price action and with 0.9200 now providing very strong support the currency could easily continue higher toward 0.9400. However, next week is a big one with a number of key releases from both countries. From Australia we get building consents, retail sales, the RBA rate meeting, GDP, and the trade balance. While from the US we have manufacturing PMI, the trade balance, and nonfarm payrolls data.
The current interbank midrate is:    AUDUSD 0.9313

The interbank range this week has been:    AUDUSD 0.9215 - 0.9318
Tuesday 27th May 2:30PM (NZT)
Since the middle of last week the Australian dollar has carved out a tight trading range above 0.9220. A fall in consumer sentiment has helped to keep topside price action limited to 0.9270. That level was tested after the release of better than expected Chinese manufacturing data, but the gains were short lived and the market quickly turned back down. The UK and US holiday yesterday has resulted in a very quiet start to this week although there will be plenty of data to digest over the coming days. From the US we get durable goods orders, consumer confidence, GDP, and pending home sales. While from Australia we get construction work done, new home sales, and private capital expenditure figures. The key downside level is support around 0.9200. Any sustained break below there would warn a much broader pullback is unfolding. Resistance toward 0.9400 should continue to provide good selling opportunities during any periods of strength.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
AUD/USD 0.9261 0.9200 0.9400 0.9209 - 0.9336

Thursday 22nd May 3:30PM (NZT) - Update
The Australian dollar has seen relentless selling pressure this week which has resulted in a substantial fall. The currency has been weighed on by weak iron ore prices and soft consumer sentiment data. Comments from assistant Governor Debelle also kept the pressure on the AUD which traded down to a 0.9209 low last night. For the time being support around 0.9200 has contained the downside, but any sustained move through there would warn of a deeper correction unfolding. The initial target in that case would be support at 0.9080. Next week from Australia we get data on construction work done, new home sales, and private capital expenditure. While from the US we have durable goods orders, consumer confidence, pending home sales, and GDP.
The current interbank midrate is:    AUDUSD 0.9264

The interbank range this week has been:    AUDUSD 0.9209 - 0.9392
Tuesday 20th May 3:00PM (NZT)
It has been a very quiet week for the Australian dollar that has maintained a slightly weakish tone since last Wednesday’s 0.9409 high. It has taken the better part of a week for the currency to slowly drift lower and it now trades just below minor support at 0.9315. The move down through there has come in the last couple of hours and this opens the way for a broader pullback targeting 0.9200. There has been little in the way of significant data released from Australia since last week’s government budget. This afternoons RBA minutes provided little in the way of fresh insight into RBA’s thinking with the bank expecting low rates to be maintained and growth to stay below trend for some time. Over the coming days we have consumer sentiment, the wage price index, and inflation expectations to draw focus. While from the US we have the Fed minutes, manufacturing PMI, existing home sales, and new home sales.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
AUD/USD 0.9311 0.9200 0.9400 0.9299 - 0.9409

Friday 16th May 2:00PM (NZT) - Update
There has been no real direction for this pairing over the past week with trading range-bound between 0.9330 and 9410. The Australian budget had very little impact on the market, as did the housing data that was released. Generally supportive data from the US has also failed to see the US dollar make gains and this is a theme that is becoming familiar. The lack of USD demand has been exasperated by the continued fall in long term US interest rates. The US 10 year bond traded down to 2.47% overnight. Until we see US yields start to move higher, something many expected months ago, the US dollar will likely remain subdued. Next week from Australia we have the RBA minutes along with consumer sentiment and the wage price index. From the US we also have the Fed minutes along with manufacturing PMI, existing and new home sales.
The current interbank midrate is:    AUDUSD 0.9351

The interbank range this week has been:    AUDUSD 0.9329 - 0.9409
Tuesday 13th May 2:00PM (NZT)
Gains in the Australian dollar seen last week on the back of a soft USD and better than expected local employment data, have largely been sustained. Although the 0.9400 level hasn’t been seriously threatened yet, the downside has been limited to 0.9350 over recent days. This tight range is very indicative of the quiet trading conditions seen over the past few days. Today’s Australian budget could liven things up a touch and this provides the main domestic focus for the week. From the US we have retail sales data tonight followed by inflation, building permits, and consumer confidence later in the week.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
AUD/USD 0.9355 0.9200 0.9400 0.9273 - 0.9394

Friday 9th May 2:00PM (NZT) - Update
The Australian dollar has performed well this week helped by broad based USD weakness and better than expected Australian employment data. USD weakness continues to be puzzling in the face of improving data and it is a good reason to be somewhat cautious about near term direction. The RBA maintained their current neutral stance this week, but it was yesterday’s +14.2k gain in Australian employment that got the biggest reaction from the AUD. The currency rallied from 0.9320 to trade as high as 0.9394 yesterday evening. For now the risks remain skewed to the topside and a test of the early April peak at 0.9460 can’t be ruled out. Locally next week we have business confidence and the annual budget to digest. While from the US the economic calendar includes retail sales, producer prices, inflation, building permits, and consumer sentiment.
The current interbank midrate is:    AUDUSD 0.9362

The interbank range this week has been:    AUDUSD 0.9204 - 0.9394
Tuesday 6th May 2:00PM (NZT)
The Australian dollar has been largely directionless over the past seven days and currently trades close to where it was this time last week. We did see a sharp spike lower on Friday evening in the wake of US employment data, but the move was quickly reversed. Yesterday’s softer than expected building approvals from Australia only provided short term pressure on the AUD which again quickly recovered. The US dollars lack of ability to sustain gains is very puzzling and last night again, in the face of stronger than expected non-manufacturing ISM data, the USD struggled to make gains. Initial topside resistance comes in around 0.9320, with downside support just ahead of 0.9200. These parameters are likely to continue to define trading in the near term. Today’s RBA rate meeting shouldn’t hold too many surprises with no change in rates and a similar statement to last time expected. Later in the week attention will turn to Australian retail sales and employment data, both of which could move the market.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
AUD/USD 0.9287 0.9200 0.9400 0.9204 - 0.9311

Friday 2nd May 3:00PM (NZT) - Update
The Australian dollar has been relatively subdued for much of the past week with trading contained between 0.9220 and 0.9320 since 23rd of March. A period of USD strength saw the lows trade early in the week, but this was quickly reversed after very soft US GDP data was released. The pair then drifted back above 0.9300, although it was only briefly sustained before the AUD saw some renewed pressure last night. Expect the current directionless trade to continue ahead of tonight’s key US employment numbers. That data will likely dictate near term direction. There is also plenty of data locally next week that could influence. Building approvals, trade balance, the RBA rate review and statement, retail sales, and employment change are all set for release. From the US we get non-manufacturing PMI, the trade balance, and a testimony from Fed Chair Yellen.
The current interbank midrate is:    AUDUSD 0.9275

The interbank range this week has been:    AUDUSD 0.9229 - 0.9315
Tuesday 29th April 3:30PM (NZT)
Price action in the Australian dollar over the past week has been dominated by the losses seen in the wake of last week’s softer than expected inflation result. The AUD lost around one cent against the USD in the hours after the release, and there has been little in the way of a meaningful bounce since. Data from the United States has also been largely supportive of the USD and this has kept the downside for the AUD in play. At this point further losses toward 0.9200 seem likely, though that will largely depend on key data still to come this week from the US. The results of GDP, the FOMC rate statement, manufacturing PMI, and non-farm payrolls over the coming days will dictate near term direction to a large degree.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
AUD/USD 0.9240 0.9200 0.9400 0.9245 - 0.9377

Wednesday 23rd April 4:30PM (NZT) - Update
The past week saw mostly subdued trading in the Australian dollar with the pair trading down toward support at 0.9320 on a number of occasions. The initial failure to break below that level saw a recovery of sorts develop that had the AUD trading around 0.9375 heading into today’s key inflation data. The market was looking for +0.8% for the quarter, but the actual reading came in at only +0.6%. This immediately saw the currency under pressure and eventually saw 0.9320 support give way. This opens the way for a broader pull back which should target the 0.9200 level initially. Minor resistance around 0.9340 should cap any bounces over the next 24 hours as the AUD remains under pressure.
The current interbank midrate is:    AUDUSD 0.9308

The interbank range this week has been:    AUDUSD 0.9300 - 0.9391
Thursday 17th April 3:30PM (NZT) - Update
The Australian dollar has seen a gradual retreat this week from the recent high of 0.9461, which was set last Thursday. Stronger than expected retail sales and inflation data earlier in the week from the US helped boost the USD a touch, but some of this good work was undone by comments from a very ‘dovish’ Yellen last night. As a result the AUD has bounced off the low of 0.9334 set yesterday. While resistance at 0.9395 caps the topside, there is potential for a deeper correction toward support at 0.9300.  Domestically the focus turns to next week inflation data. While from the US we get existing and new home sales data, manufacturing PMI, and durable goods orders.
The current interbank midrate is:    AUDUSD 0.9375

The interbank range this week has been:    AUDUSD 0.9334 - 0.9461
Tuesday 15th April 2:30PM (NZT)
The Australian dollar has remained well supported against the USD helped by a string of better than expected data and broad based USD weakness. The soft USD is a little hard to reconcile as data from the US recently has also been better than expected. Most notable was lasts night retail sales figures that had their biggest jump in 18 months. But for now at least the market seems happy to buy the AUD on any dips. We have seen a major swing in sentiment towards the AUD recently and this does explain a certain amount of recent gains. Today’s RBA minutes were of limited impact, with little in the way of new information coming to light. Later in the week we get business confidence and new motor vehicle sales data. From the US building permits, industrial production, and weekly unemployment claims will draw focus.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
AUD/USD 0.9398 0.9250 0.9450 0.9262 - 0.9461

Friday 11th April 3:30PM (NZT) - Update
The Australian dollar has been a strong performer for much of the past week.A good chunk of the gains can be attributed to broad based USD weakness, but Australia has seen good data on housing finance and, more importantly, employment change. The latter release helped boost the currency to its 0.9461 high last night. Since then however, we have seen what could turn out to be just the start of, a decent correction lower. Yesterday’s Chinese trade data was very poor and this has combined with stock market nervousness overnight to weigh on the AUD. A move down through minor support at 0.9380 could easily open the way for a broader correction toward 0.9300. The RBA minutes set for release on Tuesday next week will be of particular focus, as will US retail sales, inflation, building permits, and industrial production.
The current interbank midrate is:    AUDUSD 0.9384

The interbank range this week has been:    AUDUSD 0.9229 - 0.9461
Tuesday 8th April 1:30PM (NZT)
The Australian dollar traded to a four month high on Friday evening in the wake of US non-farm payrolls data. The market had been looking for a strong result from that release and although the actual figure wasn’t far off expectation, it wasn’t enough to save the USD from coming under substantially selling pressure. This drove the AUD to its 0.9304 high. Prior to that data, on Thursday last week, the AUD briefly traded below support at 0.9220 touching a low of 0.9207, but the weakness could not be sustained and the pair quickly recovered. This price action, combined with Friday’s data leaves the topside looking the most vulnerable. Key resistance around 0.9300 should continue to provide a decent barrier to further gains, with any move up through there opening the way for a much broader rally. It may be that 0.9220 and 0.9300 contain price action ahead of Thursday’s key Australian employment data. This result will likely set the tone heading into the weekend and early next week.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
AUD/USD 0.9275 0.9100 0.9300 0.9207 - 0.9304

Friday 4th April 1:30PM (NZT) - Update
The Australian dollar has seen a gradual decline against the USD this week, driven by weaker commodity prices and generally soft data. The RBA’s very neutral statement on Tuesday had little impact and the only comment regarding the level of the AUD was that it remains high by historical standards. The AUD had rallied strongly for most of March and it really needed to see continued improvements in local data to sustain those gains. With that not forthcoming, we have seen a gradual decline from the high of 0.9295 set on Tuesday. US data has also been coming in on the soft side for most of the week, although this hasn’t impacted the USD much with the market keenly focused on tonight’s release of non-farm payrolls numbers. Expectations are for an increase of around 200k and any result above that will likely see the AUD lose more ground. In the case of such a result a target for the AUD would be initial support around 0.9140.
The current interbank midrate is:    AUDUSD 0.9236

The interbank range this week has been:    AUDUSD 0.9207 - 0.9295
Tuesday 1st April 1:30PM (NZT)
The Australian dollar rallied strongly last week helped by a broadly weaker USD, stronger commodities, and a lack of negative talk from RBA officials. Resistance around 0.9300 has so far capped the move, and near term direction is likely to be dictated by this afternoons RBA rate meeting and statement. No change in rates is widely expected and the focus will be on whether Governor Stevens tries to talk the currency down at all. The market was buoyed last week by a lack of currency negative comments from officials, however they can’t be comfortable with the AUD’s current level and today’s meeting could provide the right opportunity to signal as much. The rest of the week should also prove interesting with plenty of key data from both countries to digest. Australian retails sales on Thursday will be a focus as will US non-farm employment change on Friday. Ahead of that we get US manufacturing PMI tonight and non-manufacturing PMI on Thursday night.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
AUD/USD 0.9271 0.9100 0.9300 0.9120 - 0.9295

Friday 28th March 12:30PM (NZT) - Update
It has been a week of dramatic gains for the Australian dollar. The currency powered on through resistance at 0.9150 and has reached a high so far of 0.9269. It has been helped along by a complete lack of ‘jawboning’ from RBA officials. In months gone by they have been quick to say the currency is overvalued with Governor Steven’s once suggesting it should be trading in the mid 80’s to the USD. But that sort of talk was conspicuously absent in a number of releases this week and it help drive the AUD higher. A broadly weaker USD has also been a factor, but up until the last 24 hours, the AUD had been the strongest performer of all currencies this week. So how much further can it go? Well the peak of 0.9756 set back in October 2013 looks a good target. But before it can even consider that, there is a band of resistance between 0.9280 and 0.9300 which will provide the initial hurdle. A sharp rejection from there will take some of the shine off the currency. There is also plenty of data next week from both countries for the market to digest, so we can be sure that volatility won’t be lacking. The highlights from Australia will be retail sales and the RBA meeting. While from the US the market will be keen to see readings from the manufacturing and non-manufacturing sector along with Friday’s key non-farm payrolls figures.
The current interbank midrate is:    AUDUSD 0.9258

The interbank range this week has been:    AUDUSD 0.9033 - 0.9269
Tuesday 25th March 2:00PM (NZT)
The most surprising thing for the Australian dollar has been the relentless strength seen since late last week. The move over the last 24 hours in particular has raised eyebrows as it comes on the back off a further weakening in Chinese manufacturing that would normally pressure the AUD to the downside. The currency has been testing the key level of 0.9150, above which are rumoured to be larger stop loss buy orders. Sometimes in currency markets you have to put fundamental data aside and just respect the price action. The price action in the AUD at the moment is telling us the topside is the risk, and markets are always attracted to large collections of stop loss orders. A move up though 0.9150 could quickly turn into a test 0.9200. The only release from Australia this week is the RBA financial stability report out tomorrow. Focus will then turn to the US and the release of durable goods orders, pending home sales, final GDP, and personal spending data.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
AUD/USD 0.9142 0.8950 0.9150 0.8996 - 0.9149

Friday 21st March 2:00PM (NZT) - Update
The Australian dollar made good gains in the first half of the week buoyed by improving risk sentiment and a continued neutral tone from the RBA. The currency was trading over 0.9100 heading into the first US rate meeting to be chaired by new president Janet Yellen. The result of that meeting, and subsequent press conference, on Thursday morning saw a quick change in fortunes for the AUD. Yellen’s inference that rate hikes could start in the second quarter of next year saw the USD appreciate sharply. The AUD quickly lost over one cent to the USD trading down towards 0.9000. We have so far only seen a limited bounce from the AUD that has been capped at 0.9050. The risks are skewed toward another test of minor support around 0.9000 in the near term. A break below there would open the way for a broader move back toward the more important support level of 0.8900. The only release from Australia next week is the RBA’s financial stability review, while from the US there is plenty of data to draw focus. The highlights will be manufacturing PMI, consumer confidence, durable goods orders, GDP, and pending home sales.
The current interbank midrate is:    AUDUSD 0.9045

The interbank range this week has been:    AUDUSD 0.8996 - 0.9137
Tuesday 18th March 3:30PM (NZT)
Last Thursday’s surprisingly strong employment data helped the Australian dollar recover substantial ground. The currency surged to 0.9103 in the hours after the release and the gains were only undone on the back of heightened tensions in the Ukraine. These combined with European stocks falling 1-2% on Thursday evening to see an increase in risk aversion and this weighed on the pair into the weekend. With the Ukraine referendum now out of the way peacefully and the realisation that the only action the west is likely to take comes in the form of sanctions, we have seen risk trades back in favour this week. This has seen the AUD recover back towards 0.9100. There is little else out this week from Australia to drive the market so focus will turn to offshore factors. To that extent this week from the US we have building permits and inflation data to be followed by the latest Fed meeting.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
AUD/USD 0.9087 0.8900 0.9100 0.8924 - 0.9104

Thursday 13th March 5:00PM (NZT) - Update
The Australian dollar had been under pressure for much of the past week. Last Friday’s US employment data started the selloff which was aided by weaker readings from Australian business confidence and consumer sentiment on Tuesday and Wednesday. The AUD has also suffered as a result of soft commodity prices and concerns over corporate defaults in China. The losses had all but wiped out the gains seen last week after better Australian trade balance and retail sales data. However, in the last few hours we have received employment change numbers from Australia and these have surprised the market by coming in much stronger than expected. The AUD immediately jumped towards 0.9070 in the wake of that release, and I would expect further topside price action in the near term. A move above 0.9075 would open the way for gains toward 0.9130. The highlight from next week’s economic releases will be the RBA minutes on Tuesday. While from the US we get building permits, inflation, housing starts and home sales, along with the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy meeting.
The current interbank midrate is:    AUDUSD 0.9063

The interbank range this week has been:    AUDUSD 0.8924 - 0.9133
Tuesday 11th March 3:00PM (NZT)
The Australian dollar was making gradual gains against the USD heading into Thursday’s retail sales and trade balance data. Those gains were driven by reduced tensions in the Ukraine and some softer than expected US data. But it was the Australian releases on Thursday that really lit a fire under the AUD. Retail sales and the trade balance were both significantly better than expected and these came on top of strong building approvals earlier in the week. The AUD leapt higher and continued to make solid gains heading into Friday night’s US employment numbers. The market was expecting another soft reading, but instead was caught by surprise when the result came in above forecasts. This caused a sharp correction lower in the AUD as demand for USD’s increased. Over the weekend we have also seen some shocking Chinese export data that has weighed on the AUD, although the result was so bad as to raise questions about the validity of the data. Overall the AUD is still significantly higher than where it started the week and still above the psychologically important level of 0.9000. Thursday’s employment numbers are now the main focus domestically, while in the US attention will turn to retail sales, producer prices, and consumer sentiment.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
AUD/USD 0.9028 0.8870 0.9070 0.8910 - 0.9133

Thursday 6th March 8:30PM (NZT) - Update
The Australian dollar lost ground to the USD in the opening stages of the week after tensions in the Ukraine had escalated over the weekend. But as the week has progressed those tensions have subsided and we have also had a number of supportive economic releases from Australia. These have combined with generally softer US data to see the AUD recover all of the lost ground. The latest figures to hit the wires have been Australian retail sales and the trade balance, both of which came in significantly better than forecast. On the back of these the currency has lept back above 0.9000. The focus now turns to US employment numbers due for release tomorrow night. All early indicators are that this result could again disappoint and this would further support the AUD in the short term.
The current interbank midrate is:    AUDUSD 0.9015

The interbank range this week has been:    AUDUSD 0.8891 - 0.9033
Tuesday 4th March 2:00PM (NZT)
The Australian dollar suffered last week at the hands of poor economic data. Construction work done, private capital expenditure, and private sector credit all weighed on the currency. A small recovery late on Friday was then completely unwound in early trading on Monday morning, after escalating tensions in the Ukraine cased a small ‘risk off’ move. We have seen a bounce from the lows set early yesterday helped by some better economic releases from Australia in the form of job ads data and the manufacturing index. The focus now turns to the the RBA’s rate statement out later this afternoon. This event is likely to decide near term direction for the pair. Later in the week we have GDP, retail sales, and the trade balance to digest.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
AUD/USD 0.8925 0.8870 0.9070 0.8891 - 0.9048

Friday 28th February 3:00PM (NZT) - Update
The Australian dollar has suffered as hands of further poor data this week. A period of relative strength in the currency early in the week could not be sustained and disappointing readings on construction work done and private capital expenditure then weighted heavily. The latter release was so weak that a number of forecasters are downgrading GDP forecasts as a result. We still have private sector credit data to come in the next few hours, but it’s hard to see a result positive enough to have a material impact on the week’s price action. Minor support around 0.8900 is likely to come back under pressure in the near term. A move below there opens the way for further losses toward 0.8820 initially. Next week should prove interesting with building approvals, the RBA rate meeting, GDP, retail sales, and the trade balance all set for release from Australia. While from the US we have manufacturing and non-manufacturing PMI, the Fed's Beige book, trade balance, and non-farm payrolls data.
The current interbank midrate is:    AUDUSD 0.8957

The interbank range this week has been:    AUDUSD 0.8905 - 0.9048
Tuesday 25th February 3:00PM (NZT)
For much of last week the focus for the Australian dollar was on the downside. Gradual losses accelerated in the wake of poor Chinese manufacturing data which took the currency down to its 0.8937 low. That level managed to contain the downside late last week and held again when retested during a period of weakness yesterday. This allowed the AUD to stage a invigorated bounce that was aided by poor data from the US service sector release overnight. The AUD rallied up towards 0.9050 and this has taken the immediate focus off the downside. A test of resistance around 0.9070/80 could well be on the cards now. That is a key level and the outcome there will likely define near term price action. It’s hard to see Australian data this week providing the impetus for a break higher with only construction work done out tomorrow, then private capital expenditure and private sector credit released on Thursday and Friday respectively. From the US however we have consumer confidence, new home sales, durable goods orders, and preliminary GDP, which will all be closely watched to see if it continues to be ‘weather affected’.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
AUD/USD 0.9040 0.8870 0.9070 0.8937 - 0.9074

Friday 21st February 1:30PM (NZT) - Update
The Australian dollar opened the week just below key resistance around 0.9070. It maintained a supported tone heading into the release of the RBA minutes on Tuesday afternoon. That release initially boosted the AUD and it had a solid crack at resistance trading up to 0.9080, but the move couldn’t be sustained and the currency eventually fell back. That failed attempt higher turned the focus back to the downside and the currency started to once again lose ground. There were periods of strength on the back of continued soft US data, but these were short lived. The weeks low of 0.8937 traded in the wake of yesterday’s poor reading on Chinese manufacturing which weighed heavily the AUD. Since then the currency has managed to put in a substantial correction higher and now trades back up over 0.9000. However, with resistance around 0.9070 still providing a tough barrier on the topside, further gains are likely to run into plenty of willing sellers. Next week’s focus will likely come from US economic releases with only second tier Australian data scheduled.
The current interbank midrate is:    AUDUSD 0.9010

The interbank range this week has been:    AUDUSD 0.8937 - 0.9074
Tuesday 18th February 3:00PM (NZT)
The Australian dollar has been on a volatile ride lately trading between 0.8920 and 0.9070. Early last week business confidence data saw the currency at the top of that range before soft employment figures caused a sharp sell off on Thursday. But a run of disappointing weather affected data continued from the US late last week and this has allowed the AUD to recover back toward resistance around 0.9070. This level should continue to provide strong resistance to further gains. The RBA monetary policy minutes released in the past hour has again seen this level come under some pressure. There is little else domestically this week that could cause a break higher. Focus will now turn to the US where we have building permits, producer prices, the FOMC minutes, inflation, and manufacturing PMI all set for release.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
AUD/USD 0.9067 0.8870 0.9070 0.8907 - 0.9074

Friday 14th February 1:30PM (NZT) - Update
The Australian dollar made gains early in the week helped by solid business confidence data. The upside momentum continued into Wednesday evenings testimony by Fed Chair Janet Yellen. Her theme of continuity in current monetary policy saw the USD regains some ground. We then had Australian employment data yesterday, and the disappointing result was immediately reflected in the currency’s value. However, a good chunk of those losses were reversed overnight after poor US retail sales data. The topside for the pair continues to be protected by resistance at 0.9060 and strength toward that level represents good selling in the near term. The highlight next week will be the Australian monetary policy meeting minutes on Tuesday. From the US we have building permits, the Fed minutes, inflation, manufacturing PMI, and existing home sales.
The current interbank midrate is:    AUDUSD 0.9000

The interbank range this week has been:    AUDUSD 0.8907 - 0.9067
Tuesday 11th February 3:00PM (NZT)
The Australian dollar reacted positively to the RBA’s very neutral stance after last Tuesday’s rate meeting. The gains have been sustained since then, helped by solid retail sales and trade balance data. Further upside pressure came in the wake of disappointing US jobs data on Friday evening. That saw the weeks high of 0.8998 trade before prices moderated a touch. The psychological level of 0.9000 should continue to provide a decent barrier to further gains. If the pair does manage to overcome that there is further resistance around 0.9060 and selling into this level is recommended. Key data to watch this week comes in the form of Australian employment figures set for release on Thursday. From the US we hear from Fed Chairman Janet Yellen ahead of retail sales and consumer sentiment data later in the week.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
AUD/USD 0.8980 0.8860 0.9060 0.8731 - 0.8998

Friday 7th February 3:30PM (NZT) - Update
It has been an unusually positive week for the Australian dollar. The currency made big gains after the RBA’s very neutral policy statement that seems to take the risk of a near term rate cut off the table. They also completely dropped any reference to the currency being over valued and this helped to underwrite the gains. This was followed with positive data yesterday in the form of retail sales and the trade balance. I would now look for support toward 0.8820 to contain any near term weakness with potential for further gains in the pair towards 0.9080. Immediate direction however could well be decided by tonight’s US employment data that will be closely watched. Next week the highlights from Australia will be business confidence, consumer sentiment, and employment change.
The current interbank midrate is:    AUDUSD 0.8937

The interbank range this week has been:    AUDUSD 0.8731 - 0.8979
Tuesday 4th February 3:00PM (NZT)
There has been little overall direction for this pair in the past week. Price action has been broadly dominated by swings between 0.8700 and 0.8820. Periods of US dollar strength came on the back of wider market risk aversion and after their solid GDP data. While surprisingly soft US manufacturing data last night saw the pair recover to test the top of the recent range before a sharp correction lower again. The immediate focus now turns to the RBA rate statement later this afternoon. We are likely to get a very neutral statement from them with the market keen to see how they interpret last month’s strong inflation data. The central bank will certainly be a lot more comfortable with the current level of the AUD which may make it difficult for them to ‘talk it down’ any further today. From the US we have key employment data out on Friday which will be closely watched.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
AUD/USD 0.8744 0.8660 0.8860 0.8694 - 0.8831

Friday 31st January 4:00PM (NZT) - Update
This week has seen relatively contained price action for this pair. Early in the week the AUD fought back to take some of its recently lost ground. The resistance around the .8800 level managed to curb the AUD topside, and the USD demand increased following the Fed’s further tapering of their QE program. Increased risk appetite in the wider market has seen the AUD again in demand and the .8860 resistance is again the near term target. Given how weak the AUD has been, the downside momentum had to wane at some point. Next week the RBA monetary policy decision on Tuesday will hold focus ahead of the all important US employment numbers on Friday.

The current interbank midrate is:    AUDUSD 0.8796

The interbank range this week has been:    AUDUSD 0.8710 - 0.8825
Tuesday 28th January 4:30PM (NZT)
The Australian dollar struggled in the second half of last week after earlier trading up towards 0.8890 in the wake of much stronger than expected inflation data. That strength was very short lived as the dual drivers of weaker Chinese manufacturing data and broad emerging market concerns weighed on the currency. The AUD traded to a fresh cycle low against the USD at 0.8660 on Friday evening. We have seen a small recovery since then which has so far been capped around the first line of resistance at 0.8760. While the pair trades below this level the risks are all still skewed to the downside. Later in the week from Australia we get readings on new home sales and producer prices. While focus in the US this week comes in the form of durable goods orders, consumer confidence, the Fed meeting, and GDP data.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
AUD/USD 0.8785 0.8660 0.8860 0.8660 - 0.8887

Friday 24th January 2:00PM (NZT) - Update
It has been an interesting week for the Australian dollar. After suffering so badly for the past few weeks, and trading near cycle lows, it seemed there was potential for a decent short squeeze and recovery after their inflation data surprised on the strong side. The initial reaction was sharp and the currency remained supported in the hours that followed, but the pair struggled towards 0.8900 and eventually began retracing gains. This pullback took on a life of it’s own yesterday after Chinese manufacturing data caught the market by surprise. The poor result saw the AUD immediately hit back towards 0.8000 where is had been trading before the inflation data release. Further losses have been seen overnight on heightened concerns about emerging markets. This has seen some risk aversion trading take place and as a result the AUD has made fresh cycle lows. So the impact of much stronger inflation data was very short lived and the resulting price action leaves the AUD looking sick. There is now a band of major resistance between 0.8840 and 0.8890 and while the pair trades below there all the risks are skewed to the downside. The outlook would change dramatically if the currency broke above that resistance, but it’s hard to see what could cause that at this point. Next week from Australia we have business confidence, new home sales, and producer prices data to digest. From the US we have the Fed meeting which should hold no surprises along with durable goods orders, new home sales, GDP, and consumer confidence data to digest.
The current interbank midrate is:    AUDUSD 0.8767

The interbank range this week has been:    AUDUSD 0.8732 - 0.8887
Tuesday 21st January 3:00PM (NZT)
It has been a tough week for the Australian dollar and one that has been dominated by downside price action. Solid US retail sales numbers last Tuesday helped the USD regain all the ground lost to the AUD after the previous week’s poor non-farm payrolls figures. The AUD then took a hammering after its own employment numbers on Thursday, and since then the pair has traded a tight range around 0.8800. Fresh cycle lows at 0.8758 briefly traded yesterday before a small bounce ensued. The recovery from those lows was helped by Chinese GDP data coming in a touch stronger than expected at 7.7%. After the strong down leg of the past week there is always potential for a corrective bounce, but the broader picture is still very negative for this pair. Any near term strength will run into resistance toward 0.8900. From the US this week we have unemployment claims, manufacturing PMI, and existing home sales data to digest. While from Australia we get consumer sentiment and inflation data tomorrow followed by inflation expectations on Thursday.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
AUD/USD 0.8816 0.8700 0.8900 0.8758 - 0.9085

Friday 17th January 2:00PM (NZT) - Update
It has been a week of two halves for the Australian dollar. The currency started on the front foot as US dollar selling continued on Monday and Tuesday after last week’s poor US employment numbers. The market was nervous heading into US retail sales data and that helped lift the AUD to its high of 0.9085. But when the actual result came in on the solid side we saw a ‘relief rally’ for the USD and the AUD started to give back its gains. The currency continued to drift lower heading into yesterday’s Australian employment numbers, and when they proved to be a massive disappointment the reaction was swift. The AUD quickly traded down from 0.8900 to 0.8800 and overnight we have seen fresh cycle lows at 0.8777 trade. The downside is certainly still the most vulnerable for the pair with minor resistance around 0.8830 currently capping any strength. Next week from Australian we have consumer confidence and inflation data will be very closely watched. While from the US the focus will turn to manufacturing PMI, existing home sales, and weekly jobless claims.
The current interbank midrate is:    AUDUSD 0.8820

The interbank range this week has been:    AUDUSD 0.8777 - 0.9085
Tuesday 14th January 3:30PM (NZT)
There has been one key driver of price action in this pair over the past week and that was the US employment numbers release on Friday evening. The Australian dollar gradually lost ground to the USD heading into the data as the market was expecting a solid result of +200k. But when the actual number of only 74k hit the wires the reaction was swift. The AUD leapt toward 0.9000 and has remained well supported ever since. Another wave of USD selling last night saw the high of 0.9085 trade before prices pulled back a touch. There is plenty of room on the upside for the AUD to appreciate further, although that will likely be determined by US retails sales data out tonight. Another weak result in this data could easily see resistance around 0.9165 under attack. Conversely, a strong result will likely see the AUD back down toward 0.9000. Later in the week from the US we get producer prices, inflation, building permits, and consumer sentiment. The domestic focus this week comes from Australian employment number out on Thursday.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
AUD/USD 0.9023 0.8965 0.9165 0.8866 - 0.9085

Friday 10th January 3:00PM (NZT) - Update
Data from Australia has had little impact on the AUD this week. The currency has maintained a slow drift lower against the USD quietly reversing virtually all the gains seen in last Friday's ‘short squeeze’. The USD has been supported on the week by solid trade balance data and the release of the Fed minutes. The market is expecting further support for the USD to come tonight with the release of solid employment data. If that is indeed the case then the Australian dollar could continue to drift lower to test recent cycle lows around 0.8820. Resistance on the topside at 0.9000 should cap any potential strength seen on the back of a surprisingly weak number. Next week from Australia we get consumer sentiment figures on Wednesday and unemployment data on Thursday which will be closely watched. While from the US we have retail sales, inflation, building permits, and consumer sentiment to draw focus.
The current interbank midrate is:    AUDUSD 0.8900

The interbank range this week has been:    AUDUSD 0.8866 - 0.9003
Tuesday 7th January 2:30PM (NZT)
For the most part during the holiday period the Australian dollar was under pressure against a gradually appreciating USD. The pair traded down towards 0.8840 on two occasions, but couldn’t sustain moves below there. With little in the way of economic releases from Australia the driving force was data from the United States. This was mostly positive and supportive of the USD. But late last week as the USD failed to make further gains on the back of improving consumer confidence and manufacturing data, the market turned around and we saw sharp losses for the USD. With liquidity extra thin due to the time of year the ‘short squeeze’ in the AUD proved to be quite sharp and the pair traded up to just over 0.9000 on Friday evening. Since then the currency has given back a small amount of those gains, although it remains somewhat elevated. In the last hour we have seen a better than expected result for the Australian trade balance, although it has done little to support the currency. Later this week from Australian we get building approvals and retails sales. From the US the focus will be on the FOMC minutes on Thursday and the employment report on Friday.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
AUD/USD 0.8945 0.8840 0.9040 0.8843 - 0.9003

Friday 20th December 1:30PM (NZT) - Update
The Australian dollar was driven lower this week after the announcement by the Fed that they would taper asset purchases by $10 bln starting in January. Prior to that the currency had been relatively quiet trading around the 0.8900 level. There was some nasty volatility around that announcement, but once the market settled down the USD began to strengthen and this eventually pushed the AUD below support at 0.8850. The currency made fresh cycle lows at 0.8822 before recovering a touch. The risks are all still skewed to the downside as I expect the USD to gradually appreciate further over the coming weeks. The topside is protected by resistance around 0.8960 and then again at 0.9000. These should cap any near term periods of strength.
The current interbank midrate is:    AUDUSD 0.8860

The interbank range this week has been:    AUDUSD 0.8822 - 0.8969
Tuesday 17th December 2:00PM (NZT)
The Australian dollar got punished in the middle of last week. This was in large part a result of the RBA governor suggesting 0.8500 was a realistic level for the currency. The low of 0.8910 traded in the wake of that release, and there has been little in the way of a recovery since then. The pair seems content to trade around 0.8940 as we head into Thursday mornings Fed decision. This is the key event that will dictate direction for the AUD in the near term. There is almost no consensus in the market as to what is expected from the Fed and this will likely mean a decent reaction either way. There is some support around 0.8850, being the cycle low from early August, but this could be blown out of the water should the Fed start tapering this week.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
AUD/USD 0.8940 0.8900 0.9100 0.8910 - 0.9166

Friday 13th December 2:30PM (NZT) - Update
The Australian dollar has had no friends this week. It performed averagely in the early part of the week, but this was mainly due to softness in the USD. When the USD eventually found buyers again, the AUD rolled over with no fight. The US currency was certainly buoyed by news that a cross party deal had been reached to fund the government for the next two years as this increases the likelihood of the Fed tapering at their meeting next week. The AUD plummeted from a high of 0.9166, and even better than expected employment data yesterday couldn’t halt the decline. The AUD was weighed on further by comments from the RBA Governor Stevens who suggested 0.8500 was ‘closer to the mark’ than 0.9500, and that Australian PM Abbot has given the RBA a grant of $8bln to ‘intervene prudently’. The cycle lows of 0.8848 set back on August are now well in target. I expect the USD to continue to be supported heading into the Fed meeting next week. The outcome of that meeting will decide direction in the near - medium term. There is not much out in the way of data next week with the highlight being minutes from the last RBA meeting on Tuesday.
The current interbank midrate is:    AUDUSD 0.8942

The interbank range this week has been:    AUDUSD 0.8917 - 0.9166
Tuesday 10th December 2:00PM (NZT)
The Australian dollar was under pressure for much of last week. The RBA rate statement and then release of GDP data both caused periods of heightened selling pressure and the pair traded to 0.9000 before recovering a touch. Then came Friday evening and the release of the US employment report. The headline increase of 203k initially caused the USD to strengthen and the AUD spiked down to 0.8990. Those lows were short lived however, as a quick reversal gained momentum, helped by weaker readings on personal income and inflation. The pair rallied all the way to 0.9118 before stabilising. Over the weekend we got much better than expected data on Chinese exports and this gave the AUD a further boost in early Monday morning trade. With the risk of a December taper by the US Fed having increased in light of the employment numbers, you would have thought the USD would be finding buyers. But this seems not to be the case at the moment and sometimes you just have to respect the price action. Something else is driving the broad moves in the USD at the moment and this makes near term direction a tough call. With support around 0.9000 and resistance around 0.9200, these two levels could dominate trade over the course of this week. From Australia we still have consumer sentiment, inflation expectations, and employment data to digest. While from the US we get have retail sales and producer prices data to draw focus.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
AUD/USD 0.9088 0.8990 0.9146 0.9000 - 0.9200

Friday 6th December 3:00PM (NZT) - Update
The Australian dollar started the week a little buoyant, trading up to 0.9168. But pretty soon reality kicked in, and the downside was again in focus. Selling pressure was evident after the RBA stated the currency was ‘uncomfortably high’ and then again after the disappointing GDP data. In the wake of that release, the AUD tested the psychological level of 0.9000 before recovering a touch. Any move through that level will open the way for further losses toward the August low at 0.8850. The key driver in the near term will likely be the US employment report tonight. The market is expecting a decent number and the risks seem to be skewed to the topside. A better than expected result will see the USD make broad gains, and the 0.9000 level come back under pressure. This will set the tone heading into next week when the focus will turn to Australian data in the form of business confidence, consumer sentiment, and employment change. From the US the calendar is a little lighter with only retail sales and producer prices data of any note.
The current interbank midrate is:    AUDUSD 0.9056

The interbank range this week has been:    AUDUSD 0.8999 - 0.9168
Tuesday 3rd December 2:30PM (NZT)
The Australian dollar remained under pressure last week against the USD, although the losses were a lot less dramatic than the previous week. After trading to a recent low of 0.9057 the AUD recovered a touch heading into the weekend. That recovery was aided further by better than expected Chinese manufacturing data released over the weekend. The AUD traded up to 0.9168 yesterday, before some very average domestic manufacturing data saw the currency turn back down. Key for near term direction will be the RBA rate review and statement out later today. No change in rates is expected, so it will come down to what tone the RBA project in their statement and how much they try to ‘talk’ the AUD down. Risks for the pair are skewed to the downside and a move below 0.9050 would open the way for a test towards 0.8850.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
AUD/USD 0.9096 0.9000 0.9200 0.9057 - 0.9204

Friday 29th November 3:30PM (NZT)
The Australian dollar lost a lot of ground last week against a resurgent USD, and this week the pressure to the downside has been maintained. The losses have however, been slower with a little more two-way in the market. Some strong capital expenditure data yesterday provided the AUD with a boost, but the gains have been reversed overnight and recent lows at 0.9065 have traded in the last couple of hours. Data from the US has been mixed, but the market has chosen to focus on the positive and this has kept the USD well supported across the board. From Australia next week there is plenty of data with building approvals, retail sales, the RBA rate statement, GDP, and the trade balance all scheduled to hit the wires. It’s a similar story from the States with key data in the form of manufacturing and non-manufacturing PMI’s, trade balance, GDP, and Friday’s employment report all scheduled for release. The question now becomes where will the AUD find some support, or are we headed back to the lows set in August around 0.8850. There is minor support towards 0.9000 which could halt the downside for now, but with so much data to come next week we can expect plenty of action.
The current interbank midrate is:    AUDUSD 0.9064

The interbank range this week has been:    AUDUSD 0.9060 - 0.9204
Tuesday 26th November 4:30PM (NZT)
The Australian dollar was one of the worst performers last week in the wake of the resurgent US dollar. The Fed minutes started the ball rolling but the knocks kept on coming for the AUD with comments from the IMF and then RBA governor Stevens both having an impact. There was little respite for the currency in the early stages of this week as a low of 0.9121 was set. We have seen something of a recovery since then with the pair now trading just below 0.9200. This corrective bounce could extend all the way toward 0.9270 before running into key resistance which should cap the topside. The only domestic data of note from Australia this week is private capital expenditure figures on Thursday. While from the US we get building permits, consumer confidence, and durable goods orders to draw focus.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
AUD/USD 0.9178 0.9070 0.9270 0.9121 - 0.9442

Friday 22nd November 2:30PM (NZT)
This pair saw contained ranges for the first half of this week. However this dramatically changed following the release of the monetary policy minutes from the US Federal Reserve. Since then the US dollar has made a strong resurgence as longer term interest rates have moved higher. The stronger US dollar coupled with across the board weakness following a statement from the IMF, that they consider the AUD to be 10% overvalued at current levels. Overnight saw another bout of AUD weakness following the comments from RBA Governor Stevens. The pair currently sits right on support at .9220, and consolidation through this level opens up the way for further AUD weakness. Whilst the current momentum points towards further investigations lower, the easy ground has been made by the US dollar. Next week will see the main focus on the performance of the US dollar, and Thursday’s Australian capital expenditure numbers.
The current interbank midrate is:    AUDUSD .9230

The interbank range this week has been:    AUDUSD .9211 - .9442
Tuesday 19th November 2:30PM (NZT)
A relatively solid performance from the AUD over the past week has had much to do with broad USD weakness. The USD came under pressure across the board last week as incoming Fed chairman Janet Yellen showed her strong support for the current quantitative easing programme. The AUD saw further gains yesterday as releases from the Communist Party conference in China over the weekend surprised many with the broad reforms proposed. That buoyed Asian stock markets and was generally positive for risk sentiment. The USD has however recovered some lost ground in the last 12 hours. This came after a number of other Fed speakers were more positive on the prospect for US growth than the market had been expecting. This has seen the pair turn back down from just above 0.9400. In the last hour the minutes from the last RBA meeting have hit the wires. This has seen the AUD jump around a touch, but there is nothing new in the release and the impact should be limited. There will be plenty of data to digest this week from the US with the highlights being inflation, retail sales, and minutes from the last Fed monetary policy meeting. From Australia we get more comments from Governor Stevens on Thursday.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
AUD/USD 0.9381 0.9230 0.9430 0.9269 - 0.9418

Friday 15th November 2:00PM (NZT) - Update
The Australian dollar started the week drifting lower in a continuation of the losses seen towards the end of last week. The currency traded down through 0.9300 before finding some support around 0.9280. A small recovery ensued, and those gains were extended on Thursday morning as the USD lost ground across the board thanks to testimony from incoming Fed chairman Janet Yellen. The pair eventually turned back down and once again tested 0.9280. The risks are balanced at the current level. Support around 0.9280 is key and has so far contained weakness. A sustained break below this level would be a negative signal and warn of losses toward 0.9200, or even 0.9000. But until we see that break there remains a reasonable chance of a bounce which would target 0.9400 ahead of 0.9530. Next week is another light for data in Australian with only the leading index and minutes from the last RBA monetary policy meeting set for release. Focus for the pair will likely then come from offshore. To that extent from the US next week focus will be on retail sales, existing home sales, minutes from the last Fed meeting, and weekly unemployment claims.
The current interbank midrate is:    AUDUSD 0.9327

The interbank range this week has been:    AUDUSD 0.9269 - 0.9390
Tuesday 12th November 2:30PM (NZT)
The Australian dollar struggled in the second half of last week undermined by poor local employment figures and surprisingly upbeat data from the US. Much better than expected US GDP on Thursday was backed up by strong employment data on Friday and this saw the US dollar make good gains across the board. The AUD fell to a low of 0.9353 initially and the resulting bounce lacked any real purpose. As a result the downside was tested again last night and then again today a fresh low of 0.9335 was made. The risks are still skewed to the downside with a test of support around 0.9300 likely over the coming days. The pair may do some work around that level however, and the reaction there will be key for the near term outlook. This week we hear from Bernanke and incoming Fed Chairman Janet Yellen as well as having trade balance data to digest. From Australia we have consumer sentiment, wage price index, and inflation expectations to draw focus.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
AUD/USD 0.9337 0.9300 0.9500 0.9335 - 0.9543

Friday 8th November 2:00PM (NZT) - Update
It has been a very interesting week for this pair with three prices of economic news materially different from expectations, but a trading range of just over 100pts. The AUD started the week in demand as positive news from the Chinese economy buoyed demand. Monday’s release of the strong Australian retail sales numbers added to this initial boost. Tuesdays RBA monetary policy statement saw the RBA warn further on the elevated level of the AUD and this saw much of the earlier gains reversed. Since then the pair has seen muddled price action, with periods of AUD weakness brought on by the weak Australian employment numbers, and the strong US GDP results. So the pair sits close to the lows of the week at current levels, and with the near term focus firmly on the US employment numbers due for release later on today. The GDP results have raised the question of QE tapering from the Fed next month. As long as this prospect remains (albeit unlikely), the global share markets and the AUD alike will remain vulnerable to periods of weakness.
The current interbank midrate is:    AUDUSD 0.9437

The interbank range this week has been:    AUDUSD 0.9435 - 0.9543
Tuesday 5th November 1:30PM (NZT)
There has been little overall direction for the Australian dollar over the past week. In fact the pair is trading at almost the same level is was this time last Tuesday. We did see some weakness heading into the weekend on the back of solid US manufacturing data, but levels below 0.9440 could not be sustained and the pair has recovered back over 0.9500. The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) are likely to talk about the overvalued AUD at their monetary policy meeting today, but the reality is the currency is here for a reason. An improving outlook for the Australian economy and a delay in tapering from the US Fed has combined to see the Australian dollar recover much of the ground lost earlier in the year. We may struggle to see significant weakness until we get a lot closer to a time when the Fed is likely to reduce quantitative easing (QE) purchases. At this point that could be around March next year, although upcoming data will play a significant role in shaping that expectation. To that extent we have key employment data from both Australia and the United States toward the end of the week.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
AUD/USD 0.9515 0.9400 0.9600 0.9422 - 0.9524

Friday 1st November 3:00PM (NZT) - Update
The early part of this week saw the Australian dollar continue its pullback from recent highs. The downside was helped by comments from RBA governor that the level of the currency was not supported by fundamentals. The pair plummeted though 0.9500 in the wake of those comments. But since then it seems to have found some, at least temporary, support near 0.9440, and this was helped by surprisingly strong building consents data yesterday. Direction from here is a tough call. The currency is still trading at reasonably elevated levels relative to where it has been for the last few months. But the outlook for Australia has improved recently and the US is now likely to continue to print money at the rate of $85bln a month well into next year. Key support comes in around 0.9300, and there will no doubt be plenty of willing buyers down there. On the flip side, levels above 0.9600 look like a step too far and are likely unsustainable in the long run. That leaves the current price feeling very much like mid-range. Tonight we get key data on US manufacturing, and this could set the tone into the early part of next week. There is plenty more to digest over the coming week as well with non-manufacturing data, GDP, and the monthly employment report all set for release from the US. While from Australia we have retail sales, the RBA rate statement, trade balance, and employment data to draw focus.
The current interbank midrate is:    AUDUSD 0.9465

The interbank range this week has been:    AUDUSD 0.9441 - 0.9622
Tuesday 29th October 3:00PM (NZT)
The Australian dollar has remained under pressure since last week’s spike higher. The weakness was triggered by concerns about the Chinese banking system, but even as those fears faded, the currency remained heavy. In the last few hours the AUD has come under renewed pressure as a result of a speech by RBA Governor Stevens. There is minor support around 0.9530 and a move below there opens up the way for broader losses towards 0.9400. Later this week from Australia we get building approvals and new home sales, and then on Friday we have producer prices data. While from the US we get retail sales, inflation, Fed rate decision, and the manufacturing index.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
AUD/USD 0.9546 0.9530 0.9730 0.9536 - 0.9757

Friday 25th October 1:30PM (NZT) - Update
It has been a choppy week for the Australian dollar this week, but the net result is that the currency has finished a touch lower against the USD. The highs of the week were reached overnight on Tuesday when the US released their employment report for September. This came in below expectations and disappointed the market who sharply sold USD across the board. The resulting strength in the AUD only lasted about 12 hours however, as a wave of selling hammered Australasian currencies after concerns about the Chinese banking system saw risk assets dumped. The AUD has remained on the back foot since then and traded to a low of 0.9572 last night. Direction from here is a tough call with the market now having priced in the expectation that the Fed will be on hold until at least March 14. If US data softens then those expectations could get pushed out even further and the USD could weaken even more. On the other hand it’s hard to imagine the data printing strong enough for those expectations to be brought forward much. There is support for the AUD at 0.9530 and the market could easily pull back to here before staging another attempt higher. Any further strength will target resistance around 0.9800. From Australia next week we get new home sales, building approvals, private sector credit, and producer prices. In the US next week we have full economic calendar that includes retail sales, inflation, the Fed policy meeting, and manufacturing data.
The current interbank midrate is:    AUDUSD 0.9595

The interbank range this week has been:    AUDUSD 0.9572 - 0.9757
Tuesday 22nd October 2:20PM (NZT)
The Australian dollar has continued to gain on the back of broad based USD weakness in the wake of the short term political solution agreed in Washington. The currency also found support from solid Chinese GDP data out on Friday and further gains cannot be ruled out. Strength so far has been capped by 0.9680, although pullbacks so far have been limited. This suggests further topside attempts are likely, however key to near term direction will be the US employment report out tonight. A number below expectation of 180k will likely see fresh highs for this pair. My suspicion is that it will take a very strong number (i.e. +220k) to trigger a bigger pullback in the AUD. In this case the pair could move back to support around 0.9600. Later this week from Australia we have inflation data to draw focus, while from the US we also get trade balance, home sales, and durable goods orders.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
AUD/USD 0.9654 0.9530 0.9730 0.9466 - 0.9678

Friday 18th October 2:00PM (NZT) - Update
The Australian dollar has made good gains this week helped by the RBA minutes that confirmed the bank is effectively on hold for the time being. But the main focus was the political situation in the US. That has served to undermine the USD, and in the wake of the deal that was announced yesterday the USD has been punished across the board. This has happened as many in the market now believe the Fed will be on hold and we won’t see any tapering of quantitative easing purchases until well into the New Year. It does seem unlikely they will taper until a longer term resolution has been reached on government funding and the debt ceiling. The AUD spiked up to 0.9646 last night and has so far held onto most of its gains. With current sentiment very negative on the USD we could see further upside. Initial resistance comes in around 0.9660 and if that is overcome we could see gains as far as 0.9800 over the coming weeks. Next week we have inflation data and the RBA annual report from Australia, but the major focus will continue to be on the US and potential release of economic data that has been put on hold the last two weeks.
The current interbank midrate is:    AUDUSD 0.9616

The interbank range this week has been:    AUDUSD 0.9414 - 0.9646
Tuesday 15th October 2:20PM (NZT)
Along with the NZD, the Australian dollar has been dominated over the past week by news flow and speculation around the US government shutdown and debt ceiling standoff. Reports last week that a deal was close saw an increase in risk appetite come back into the market and the AUD benefited with a move up to 0.9484. When it became clear a deal wasn’t so close the AUD drifted back off to 0.9415. But now it looks like we are once again close to some sort of deal, and the AUD is back on the front foot having rallied to 0.9506 so far. Any further strength will run into resistance around 0.9530 being the peak the market reached after the Fed famously failed to taper quantitative easing back on September 19th. It’s hard to know just how much of the current USD weakness is as a result of the announcement that Janet Yellen will take over from Ben Bernanke at the Fed. The market consensus is that she is very supportive of easy monetary policy, which would undermine demand for the USD. Most believe tapering could be delayed even further as a result of her appointment. This is certainly a factor but only time will tell if the market is correct in its assessment of her.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
AUD/USD 0.9525 0.9400 0.9600 0.9388 - 0.9525

Friday 11th October 12:00PM (NZT) - Update
There hasn’t been a lot of overall direction for the Australian dollar this week. Solid business confidence data early on helped the currency trade to the highs for the week, but the gains weren’t sustained for long. A subsequent fall in consumer sentiment helped to put a lid on any further potential strength as the market awaited the employment data out yesterday. Although the unemployment rate actually dropped, when you looked a little deeper is wasn’t the strongest of releases and the AUD came under pressure as a result. That saw the currency trade down close to the week’s lows. Overnight however, we have had some positive news from the US that a temporary deal could be reached on the debt ceiling. That has seen a ‘risk on’ sentiment enter back into the market and the AUD has benefited on the back of this. Developments in the US will continue to stay in focus until a firm deal is agreed. Next week from Australia we get the minutes from the latest RBA meeting along with data on home loans and motor vehicle sales.
The current interbank midrate is:    AUDUSD 0.9454

The interbank range this week has been:    AUDUSD 0.9388 - 0.9484
Tuesday 8th October 2:15PM (NZT)
There has been little to drive the Australian dollar since mid last week. A dip below 0.9350 after softer than expected building approvals and trade balance data was quickly reversed and the currency headed into the weekend testing resistance around 0.9450. So far that level has capped the topside and it may well continue to do so with all the focus on the political impasse in Washington. Developments there over the coming week will be key to near term direction. We also have consumer confidence and employment data from Australia to throw into the mix over the coming days. There is solid downside support towards 0.9300 while the topside is protected by resistance around 0.9450 and then again at 0.9525.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
AUD/USD 0.9434 0.9300 0.9500 0.9334 - 0.9458

Friday 4th October 2:00PM (NZT) - Update
The Australian dollar had a quiet start to the week as the market awaited the RBA rate decision and statement on Tuesday afternoon. The subtle change in language within that statement has confirmed the neutral stance of the central bank that gave the AUD a big boost. Further rate cuts are still possible if the economy deteriorates, but they are not imminent. The AUD quickly traded to its high for the week at 0.9435 before retracing some of those gains. Building permits and trade balance numbers on Wednesday were a little soft and saw the AUD give back some of its gains. A lot of focus will remain on the stalemate in Washington and how that plays out over the coming week or two could well determine the next move in the AUD. Currently the downside is supported by 0.9335, with resistance coming in toward 0.9450. Next week from Australia we have consumer sentiment, business confidence and employment data to digest. But a lot of the focus will continue to be on developments in Washington.
The current interbank midrate is:    AUDUSD 0.9422

The interbank range this week has been:    AUDUSD 0.9281 - 0.9435
Tuesday 1st October 2:15PM (NZT)
Since spiking up to 0.9528 back on the 19th of September in the wake of the Fed deciding not to taper, the AUD has slowly, but surely, been drifting lower. It has given back all those gains and headed into the weekend looking soft around the 0.9300 level. The start of this week has seen a small recovery as the USD has come under some pressure as a result of the debt ceiling stalemate, however the market is keenly awaiting the RBA’s monetary policy statement out later this afternoon. The tone of that statement could well decide the near term direction for the Australian dollar. There is minor support around 0.9280 while on the topside resistance comes in around 0.9400. Developments in the US will continue to draw focus this week along with readings on the service and manufacturing sectors. After the RBA decision this afternoon the only other data from Australia will be building approvals and trade balance both out tomorrow.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
AUD/USD 0.9320 0.9280 0.9450 0.9286 - 0.9457

Friday 27th September 2:00PM (NZT) - Update
The past week has been somewhat quiet for the Australian dollar. It started Monday on the front foot trading up to its high of 0.9457, but since then we have seen it lose a little ground to the USD. It now trades back around the 0.9360 level, which is where it was just before the Feds surprise last week. There is minor support at 0.9340 which has contained the weakness so far. Any break below there would be a negative signal and losses toward 0.9250 would likely follow. There seems little impetus for another test toward 0.9500 however, and we could well see some sideways action heading into the weekend. The key driver of the coming days is likely to be the US debt ceiling debate, and then on Tuesday we have the RBA rate decision and statement to digest.
The current interbank midrate is:    AUDUSD 0.9363

The interbank range this week has been:    AUDUSD 0.9339 - 0.9457
Tuesday 24th September 2:00PM (NZT)
After last week’s snap higher to 0.9528 on the back of no action by the Fed, the Australian dollar slowly but surely gave back all of those gains. It traded down to around 0.9350 yesterday morning which is where it originally took off from. The break below trend support at 0.9400 was a negative signal and even though the currency has since bounce back up to 0.9450, helped by better Chinese manufacturing numbers yesterday, the downside still looks vulnerable. There is very little set for release from Australia this week so the focus will turn to US numbers and any indication of the timing for a potential tapering by the Fed.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
AUD/USD 0.9409 0.9325 0.9525 0.9285 - 0.9528

Friday 20th September 2:00PM (NZT) - Update
For much of this week the Australian dollar was trading with little direction around the 0.9350 level. The RBA minutes created a little volatility, but had little long term impact on direction. The primary focus for the week was always on the Fed meeting, and their failure to announce any tapering to quantitative easing (QE) got a big reaction. The USD got hit hard across the board and the AUD rallied from 0.9270 to a peak of 0.9530. Some of those gains were retraced last night as the USD regained a little composure, but the damage has been done. Initial support now comes in around 0.9400 and while above this level the focus is still squarely on the topside. A move below 0.9400 however, could quickly change that outlook with the risks of a deeper pullback towards 0.9250 dramatically increasing. Next week from the US we have consumer confidence, durable goods orders, new home sales, GDP, and pending home sales to digest. While from Australia there is a very light economic calendar with only the RBA annual report and financial stability review scheduled for release.
The current interbank midrate is:    AUDUSD 0.9454

The interbank range this week has been:    AUDUSD 0.9285 - 0.9528
Tuesday 17th September 2:00PM (NZT)
Gains in the Australian dollar came to a screeching halt after their poor employment data last week. The AUD lost around 100 points against the USD in the aftermath of the release, and headed into the weekend very subdued around the 0.9250 level. Things livened up in thin Monday morning trade when news of Larry Summers withdrawal from the race for the Fed chairmanship hit the wires. This is seen a positive for risk assets and the  AUD gapped higher and traded all the way up to 0.9387, before running out of steam. Since then we have seen a small pull back with the pair currently trading around 0.9310. The RBA minutes released in the last hour have confirmed the more neutral stance of the bank and seen the AUD gain a little ground. We can expect plenty more action this week with the key Fed announcement on tapering set for release on Thursday morning.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
AUD/USD 0.9301 0.9225 0.9425 0.9223 - 0.9387

Friday 13th September 2:00PM (NZT) - Update
The Australian dollar has spent much of the week appreciating against the USD as the threat of military action in Syria reduced further, and US data proved a little patchy. That all changed yesterday though in the wake of the very poor Australian employment numbers. The AUD dropped like a stone losing 50 points in seconds. The pressure continued and the losses mounted to just over 100 points before the currency found some buyers at 0.9230. We have seen a small bounce from there back to 0.9280, but the damage has been done. The risks are all still on the downside, although US data tonight could decide the near term direction. To that extent we have retail sales, producer prices, and consumer sentiment to digest this evening. Look for initial resistance at 0.9280 to continue to cap ahead of these releases. Next week the focus will shift to the Fed policy meeting and potential tapering announcement. From Australia we have the RBA minutes to digest although it’s hard to see them holding many surprises.
The current interbank midrate is:    AUDUSD 0.9262

The interbank range this week has been:    AUDUSD 0.9169 - 0.9354
Tuesday 10th September 2:00PM (NZT)
The Australian dollar has had a good run against the USD since the beginning of the September. Helped by an improvement in data from both Australia and China, and a more neutral RBA, the currency has reached its highest level in over a month to the USD. The latest leg higher came on Friday night after disappointing US employment data saw the USD under pressure across the board. Current levels offer some resistance with any potential move higher targeting 0.9320, which was the high from back on July 24th. From Australia this week we have business confidence, consumer sentiment, and employment data to focus on. While from the US we get retail sales, producer prices, and consumer sentiment all released on Friday.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
AUD/USD 0.9247 0.9120 0.9320 0.8973 - 0.9247

Friday 6th September 2:00PM (NZT) - Update
The Australian dollar has had a good week. Things started off well on Monday after better Chinese data over the weekend combined with an unwinding of risk aversion around a Syrian strike. Then on Tuesday the RBA left rates unchanged and moved more towards a neutral stance which further bolstered the currency. This completely outweighed the slightly weaker than expected retail sales numbers. On Wednesday we got GDP figures that came in a touch better than expected and the currency made more gains. The AUD finally peaked around midday yesterday at 0.9187, but the pullback so far has been limited to levels around 0.9120 where it currently trades.  If the AUD can build a base here then we could see another move higher and a test of resistance around 0.9220. The key determining factor for that will be US payrolls data tonight. The election this weekend shouldn’t hold any surprises and hence have a limited impact on the currency. Aside from that next week we have Australian business confidence, consumer sentiment, and employment data to focus on.
The current interbank midrate is:    AUDUSD 0.9135

The interbank range this week has been:    AUDUSD 0.8926 - 0.9187
Tuesday 3rd September 4:00PM (NZT)
The Australian dollar was under pressure for much of last week on the back of wider market risk aversion. Volatility in emerging markets and the threat of a strike on Syria saw safe haven flows out of the AUD and into the USD. Some poor Australian construction output data added to the negativity, although later in the week we did get some decent figures on private capital expenditure. These had little lasting influence though as a ‘risk off’ sentiment prevailed and the AUD ended the week near its lows. Over the weekend however two factors have helped to turn the AUD around. Firstly was a decision by President Obama seek a vote from congress before any military action on Syria. This pushes the likely date for any strike out around 10 days or so. Secondly, we had some better data from China on manufacturing which supports other recent releases and the view that the slowdown there may be abating. These factors combined to see the AUD open 40 points higher on Monday morning and since then the recovery has continued. The AUD was helped on its way yesterday by building approvals and manufacturing data that both showed better than expected improvements. In the last hour we have seen retail sales numbers that came in below expectation and have weight on the currency a touch bringing it down off its highs. Later this afternoon we have the RBA rate announcement and accompanying statement that will be closely watched. No change is expected to the cash rate although we can expect more talk with regard to the currency still been overvalued.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
AUD/USD 0.8999 0.8850 0.9050 0.8893 - 0.9069

Friday 30th August 2.00PM (NZT) - Update
The Australian dollar has been under pressure for much of the past week. Poor data on construction output and new home sales hasn’t helped, but more importantly we have seen bouts of risk aversion that saw selling of AUD and buying of USD. This combined with an upward revision to US GDP last night, has the AUD trading near its lows for the week. There have been two major factors driving these safe haven flows. The volatility and pressure on emerging markets, in particular India, and the potential for a military strike on Syria. If concerns increase for either of those two factors, the AUD could well test down to the cycle lows set in early August at 0.8848. Next week is a big one for Australia, with building approvals, retails sales, GDP, and the RBA policy meeting to digest. There is also plenty of data out of the US next week to focus on, most notably the employment report on Friday.
The current interbank midrate is:    AUDUSD 0.8944

The interbank range this week has been:    AUDUSD 0.8893 - 0.9069
Tuesday 27th August 4:00PM (NZT)
After weakening considerably in the first half of last week the Australian dollar regained some composure thanks in large part to better data out of China. That halted the decline and saw a recovery off the 0.8934 low. Friday’s soft new home sales data out of the US helped the AUD gain more ground and saw it testing resistance at 0.9050. That level capped the topside until last night and more weak data from the US, this time in the form of durable goods orders. The AUD spiked up to 0.9069 but it was short lived and was trading back below 0.9050 inside of an hour. Reaction at this resistance level is key. If the AUD can’t sustain a move above there in the next day or so it may well turn back down and look to test the early August low near 0.8850. If however it can hold on a break above 0.9050 it should be set for another test toward 0.9200. Data out of the US over the coming sessions could well dictate with consumer confidence, pending home sales, and GDP all set for release in the next few days.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
AUD/USD 0.8987 0.8850 0.9050 0.8934 - 0.9132

Friday 23rd August 2.00PM (NZT) - Update
A resurgent USD this week has seen the Australian dollar lose much of the gains made in the early part of August. The AUD traded to a low yesterday of 0.8934 before it was saved by much improved Chinese manufacturing data. This saw the pair trade back up to 0.9040 before running out of steam. Near term direction from here is a tough call. While 0.9050 caps the topside the risks are still skewed towards further losses, although downside momentum does seem to have waned. The weekends central bankers symposium at Jackson Hole will be closely watched. While next week durable goods orders, consumer confidence, and GDP will draw focus in the US.
The current interbank midrate is:    AUDUSD 0.9030

The interbank range this week has been:    AUDUSD 0.8934 - 0.9233
Tuesday 20th August 3:00PM (NZT)
Recent strength in the Australian dollar has had more to do with broad USD weakness than any positive local fundamentals. Data out of Australia has failed to excite and it was left up to the RBA minutes today to try and impact. Those minutes added little in the way of further insight with the RBA seeing another rate cut as possible, but not imminent. The AUD has tried twice in the last ten days to hold onto gains above 0.9200, but failed on both attempts. Last night as it was rejected from there again the fall was somewhat sharper and the currency traded down to 0.9104. This leaves the AUD looking vulnerable and any move back down through 0.9080 would confirm the negative near term outlook. The focus will then quickly turn to recent lows at 0.8849. There are no major releases from Australia for the rest of the week. The market will take its lead from offshore factors and in particular the Fed minutes out on Thursday morning, manufacturing data on Friday morning, and the Jackson Hole symposium this weekend.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
AUD/USD 0.9087 0.9050 0.9250 0.9060 - 0.9233

Friday 16th August 2.00PM (NZT) - Update
The Australian dollar seems to have drifted through the week without a good deal of direction. The sharpest move came last night in the wake of better US weekly unemployment claims. That initially saw broad based buying of USD’s and the AUD fell from 0.9187 to a low of 0.9060. However the bounce was just as quick as the USD ran into a wall of selling that eventually saw the AUD back up towards 0.9150. Aside from that action,  there has been little to gain inspiration from with the AUD opening the week just above 0.9200 and subsequently drifting lower. The topside remains protected by minor resistance at 0.9220, ahead of the more key level of 0.9310. The focus next week for Australia comes from the RBA minutes on Tuesday, while from the US we home sales data and the Fed monetary policy meeting minutes on Thursday.
The current interbank midrate is:    AUDUSD 0.9147

The interbank range this week has been:    AUDUSD 0.9060 - 0.9220
Tuesday 13th August 3:00PM (NZT)
The Australian dollar put in a decent recovery over the past week from lows near 0.8850. These gains came on the back of broad based US dollar weakness and some better data out of China. This improved Chinese data has been a welcome relief for the currency, and has caused some commentators to temper their expectations of a hard landing in China. The AUD also found some support from the RBA’s statement after their 25 point cut last week. The tone of that statement was a little more neutral in terms of the outlook for future cuts. The gains for the AUD have peaked in the last two days just over the 0.9200 level. The currency has drifted lower in the last 12 hours to trade around 0.9130. Further weakness is possible but as long as the currency holds above 0.9000 the outlook remains largely neutral and further consolidation is likely. Key topside resistance comes in around 0.9300 and any move through there would likely see an acceleration, as medium term stop-loss buy orders get triggered. This week there is a raft of second tier data out of Australia that should be of limited impact, while from the US we get retail sales, inflation, building permits, and consumer confidence.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
AUD/USD 0.9128 0.9050 0.9250 0.8908 - 0.9220

Friday 9th August 2.00PM (NZT) - Update
The AUD opened the week near recent lows and was very subdued heading in the RBA cash rate announcement. As widely expected, the RBA cut rates but the accompanying statement wasn’t quite as soft as some had expected. The Australian dollar squeezed a little higher as a result. On Thursday we got some very poor employment data, however the impact on the AUD was limited. It initially fell 30 odd points, but ran into plenty of support. This saw it eventually recover those loss and then pop higher after much better than expected Chinese trade data hit the wires. So the net result is that the AUD has actually climbed over the week from 0.8850 all the way back up over 0.9100. This move has also been helped by a broadly weaker USD. There is resistance around 0.9150, and if that can be overcome then a test back towards 0.9300 could be on the cards. Next week’s key data comes in the form of business confidence, consumer sentiment, wage price index, and inflation expectations. While out of the US we get retail sales, inflation, and consumer confidence.
The current interbank midrate is:    AUDUSD 0.9106

The interbank range this week has been:    AUDUSD 0.8848 - 0.9134
 
Tuesday 6th August 1:45PM (NZT)
The Australian dollar has struggled for much of the past week. It has been weighed on by expectations of a rate cut by the RBA at their meeting this afternoon, and by stronger data coming out of the United States. Fresh cycle lows were made yesterday morning at 0.8848. Since then we have seen a small recovery back over 0.8900, but the trend is still firmly down. The market is widely expecting a 25 point cut by the RBA today and that is well priced into the current AUD level. Later in the week we get data on Australian employment which can easily influence the currency. However barring any real surprises we can expect 0.9050 to cap any potential upside, and further tests of the recent lows.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
AUD/USD 0.8914 0.8850 0.9050 0.8848 - 0.9203

Friday 2nd August 2.00PM (NZT) - Update
It has been very tough week for the Australian dollar with downside action from the outset. There was literally no good news for the currency as RBA governor Stevens’ speech on Tuesday sent it back down towards recent lows. Another cut in rates by the RBA next week looks very likely, and the market is almost fully expecting it. Yesterday’s release of data on the Australian manufacturing sector was also very disappointing and this is in stark contrast to US manufacturing that printed strong numbers overnight. The AUD has plummeted through 0.9000 to trade down to a low so far of 0.8907. We get the US employment report out tonight and it will be very closely watched. All indications at this stage point to a solid result which should continue to see the USD well supported and the AUD under pressure. There is a full economic calendar for Australia next week with retail sales, trade balance, the RBA rate announcement, and employment data all set for release.
The current interbank midrate is:    AUDUSD 0.8899

The interbank range this week has been:    AUDUSD 0.8907 - 0.9287
Tuesday 30th July 4:45PM (NZT)
The Australian dollar finished last week on the front foot trading just below 0.9300. It started this week around similar levels, but overnight some USD strength combine with softer equity markets had seen the AUD drift lower. Trading was subdued until a speech from RBA governor Stevens this afternoon sent the AUD spiralling lower again. His comments that the recent inflation data leaves room for further rate cuts had an instant impact on the currency. The bank also expects the AUD to fall further in line with the deterioration in the terms of trade. This has left the AUD looking very vulnerable, and it will be surprising if the offshore markets tonight don’t look to sell it further. Aside from this the market is waiting for to key events in the form of the FED policy meeting and US employment report. This afternoon’s move in the AUD does warn that the broader downtrend of the past three months is trying to reassert itself. In this case a test toward recent lows around 0.9000 could well be on the cards.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
AUD/USD 0.9086 0.9000 0.9200 0.9075 - 0.9318

Friday 26th July 2.00PM (NZT) - Update
It has been an interesting week for the AUD. The early part of the week saw some strength as the AUD continued its recent correction higher against the USD. However, the market quickly turned around after some very poor manufacturing figures from China saw the AUD come under all sorts of pressure. This was followed by slightly weaker than expected Australian inflation data. This kept the AUD under pressure, but in the last 24 hours we have seen a turnaround thanks to broad USD weakness. The trigger seems to have been some softer than expected core durable goods figures out of the US last night, after which the USD sold across the board. The AUD has recovered from its lows to trade back up to 0.9280. Next week sees two key releases out of the US with the Fed policy announcement on Thursday and the unemployment report on Friday. From Australia we get building approvals, new home sales and producer prices data.
The current interbank midrate is:    AUDUSD 0.9268

The interbank range this week has been:    AUDUSD 0.9129 - 0.9318
Tuesday 23rd July 3:00PM (NZT)
The Australian dollar has continued to make some gains against the USD in the early part of this week. These gains have been helped by news out of China over the weekend that the Peoples Bank of China (PBOC) have taken steps to liberalize lending that could help to stimulate activity. Commodities, and in particular metals, are also a bit stronger recently and that is also supporting the currency. Out of the US last night we saw weaker than expected figures on existing home sales and that caused some USD weakness across the board. The AUD is currently trading around 0.9250 but gains from here will prove tough in the near term. There is a fair amount of resistance around the 0.9300 level which will take some work to get through, and the market may struggle to do that ahead of tomorrow’s inflation data.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
AUD/USD 0.9283 0.9100 0.9300 0.9088 - 0.9292

Friday 19th July 12.00PM (NZT) - Update
The Australian dollar gained some support in the early part of the week after the minutes from the last RBA meeting were released. Those minutes seemed to reduce the chance of a rate cut at the next meeting, and this saw some demand for the AUD materialize. The currency rallied from around 0.9080 to 0.9250. Sideways action then took over with a small spike up to 0.9292 very short lived. The currency couldn’t hold onto these gain however, and yesterday sellers reemerged to push it back below 0.9200. The risks are still all skewed to the downside and only a sustained move above 0.9300 would change the outlook.
The current interbank midrate is:    AUDUSD 0.9164

The interbank range this week has been:    AUDUSD 0.9036 - 0.9292
Tuesday 16th July 3:30PM (NZT)
The last week has seen a decent range for the Australian dollar of around 300 points against the USD. The highs were made in the wake of the Fed minutes that saw broad based USD selling. That move was short lived however and the AUD quickly headed back to where it was before the announcement. Since then the currency has suffered on the back of soft Chinese data and comments from Chinese officials. This saw the currency make fresh cycle lows near 0.9000 on Friday but there was little in the way of follow through selling and the AUD recovered a little. That recovery was helped yesterday when Chinese GDP came in close to expectation. There had been plenty of rumours that it would be much weaker, so the AUD benefited from a small relief rally. Today’s RBA minutes have also lent support to the currency as they seem to have reduced the expectation of a near term rate cut. Overall the currency still look vulnerable as it continues to make fresh lows on a regular basis. Only a sustained move up through 0.9250 will take the pressure off the downside.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
AUD/USD 0.9160 0.9050 0.9250 0.9007 - 0.9305

Friday 12th July 2:45PM (NZT) - Update
We have seen some solid volatility in the Australian dollar this week. It all started off calmly enough as the currency recovered much of its post US employment losses early in the week. Then came Chinese trade data that showed a shock contraction in exports and imports. The AUD got hit instantly, and ended up trading down to 0.9093 before the Fed minutes hit the wires. The softer tone to those minutes, and from Ben Bernanke’s subsequent speech, saw the AUD snap higher and it traded all the way up to 0.9305. Liquidity was thin, and this magnified the move so eventually sellers emerged to start to push the AUD back down. This correction lower was helped along by rumours of an upcoming soft GDP reading for China next week. As a result the pair traded down to 0.9120, before recovering slightly. We can expect more volatility going forward as liquidity remains lower than normal. There is a very small upside bias to the AUD at the moment, and as long as it holds above 0.9120, we could see some further appreciation. Below 0.9120 and the picture will start to look very weak again. Next week sees the RBA minutes and business confidence to focus on.
The current interbank midrate is:    AUDUSD 0.9165

The interbank range this week has been:    AUDUSD 0.9043 - 0.9305
Tuesday 9th July 4:00PM (NZT)
The end of last week saw the Australian dollar head back toward its recent cycle lows. this came in the wake of a better than expected US employment report. It did however fail to make fresh lows, and with a lack of follow through selling the AUD has turned around. So far this week it has recovered much of those losses seen on Friday. The bounce is anything but convincing, having failed so far to attack the first line of resistance around 0.9180. It will take a break above there before we could even start to get excited about a potentially bigger correction. Until then the focus remains on further losses. However, it looks like downside momentum is starting to wane a little, and losses will prove harder work from here in the near term. Key releases to watch this week will be consumer sentiment and employment data.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
AUD/USD 0.9125 0.9050 0.9250 0.9037 - 0.9190

Friday 5th July 2:45PM (NZT) - Update
The Australian dollar has struggled this week in the wake of the RBA meeting. The RBA still views the currency as overvalued, and is happy to see it lower. They got their wish as the AUD made fresh cycle lows at 0.9037 the following day. We have seen a small recovery since then, but it’s nothing to get excited about as it seems to have run out of steam at 0.9180. At this point the downside is still very much in focus. Data this week has been less than inspiring and next week we have consumer confidence and employment numbers to focus on. However, the big event of the week is still to come. US jobs data tonight could well determine near term direction and we can expect quite directionless trade until that data hits the wires in the early hours of the morning.
The current interbank midrate is:    AUDUSD 0.9126

The interbank range this week has been:    AUDUSD 0.9037 - 0.9253
Tuesday 2nd July 3:00PM (NZT)
The Australian dollar spent much of last week ever so slowly grinding its way off its lows at 0.9148 that were set last Monday. However, there was very little in the way of momentum in the move and on Friday evening, another bout of US dollar strength saw the AUD quickly retreat. There was no real trigger for the move, aside from month end flows, and the AUD didn’t put up much of a fight. It quickly traded down through 0.9148 to set a new cycle low at 0.9114. The early part of this week has seen a small recovery back up over 0.9200, but again there is little real momentum in the move. The market is waiting to see what the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) have to say today after their monetary policy meeting and that will help decide AUD direction in the near term. Later in the week we get key US employment numbers that will also have a big impact. So far the US dollar has ignored all the FED officials who have been saying the markets overreacted to the tapering announcement. If we happen to get a soft US employment report there is potential for a sharp reaction. Other Australian data to watch for includes retail sales and trade balance on Wednesday, and building approvals on Thursday.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
AUD/USD 0.9210 0.9100 0.9300 0.9114 - 0.9344

Friday 28th June 3:15PM (NZT) - Update
The AUD has spent much of this week grinding back some of the losses seen in the wake of last Thursday’s Fed announcement. It has been slow going though, with the only real action being a spike to 0.9344 after the US GDP figures were revised down. However, the AUD quickly gave up those gains and listless trade resumed. The ever-so-slight upside bias may see resistance around 0.9400 tested, but there is a real lack of momentum and gains through there, at least at this point, seem unlikely. The downside should be protected by continued comments from Fed officials that the market has overreacted to Bernanke’s tapering announcement.
The current interbank midrate is:    AUDUSD 0.9255

The interbank range this week has been:    AUDUSD 0.9148 - 0.9344
Tuesday 25th June 3:20PM (NZT)
The sharp move lower in the Australian dollar after the Fed announcement last week has taken a pause as the market consolidates the losses. A brief move to cycle lows at 0.9148 was short lived last night and the AUD bounced back above 0.9250. Key topside resistance around 0.9400 should cap any near term strength as the focus remains on the downside. Private sector credit is the only data of note out of Australia this week, however there are plenty of US releases to focus on.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
AUD/USD 0.9252 0.9150 0.9350 0.9148 - 0.9557

Friday 21st June 3:45PM (NZT) - Update
The recovery in the Australian dollar last week ran into resistance around 0.9650 which is close to where it opened this week. But the failure at that level saw the AUD back down to 0.9450 before a small bounce saw it trading at 0.9550 heading into the US Fed announcement. After Bernanke gave a strong signal that tapering of QE was just around the corner the AUD collapsed. It was 200 points lower at 0.9350 within minutes. The selling continued in the hours that followed and so far the AUD has traded as low as 0.9164. That’s the lowest level in 3 years. The risks are still all on the downside with resistance around 0.9320 likely to cap any near term strength.
The current interbank midrate is:    AUDUSD 0.9225

The interbank range this week has been:    AUDUSD 0.9164 - 0.9641
Tuesday 18th June 3:30PM (NZT)
The Australian dollar has put in a decent recovery over the past week and shown that it is no longer a one-way bet. It has bounced a good 300 points from its lows of 0.9326 seen early last week. That recovery has however seemed to run into resistance around 0.9650, which has capped it on three occasions in as many days. Last night’s surge in the USD saw the AUD head back just below 0.9550, where it currently trades. It looks like offshore factors will be the driving force for the AUD this week, with the Fed meeting being key. It looks like resistance between 0.9650 and 0.9700 will cap the topside heading into Wednesday nights Fed meeting.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
AUD/USD 0.9515 0.9500 0.9700  

Friday 14th June 3:15PM (NZT) - Update
The Australian dollar has seen some good volatility this week, with a strong recovery off its recent low of 0.9326, set early in the week. With record short (sold) speculative positions in the market, the risk of a sharp reversal was there, and after yesterday’s employment numbers beat expectation, the stage was set. The initial spike higher after the data’s release was very short lived thanks to selling of the AUDJPY cross as the JPY rallied hard and the Japanese stock market sank 6%. That kept the AUD under pressure for a few hours, but once that selling was done the AUD started its march higher. Broad based USD weakness overnight aided the move and the AUD could easily make further gains as more shorts (sold positions), get squeezed out. Resistance around 0.9700 will be the first target with potential for a move to 0.9800, if it’s overcome. The downside now sees support coming in around 0.9550. All eyes next week will be on the US Fed meeting, and expectations around that will continue to drive the market.
The current interbank midrate is:    AUDUSD 0.9590

The interbank range this week has been:    AUDUSD 0.9326 - 0.9664
 
Tuesday 11th June 3:20PM (NZT)
The Australian dollar suffered last week as continued selling was supported by soft economic data. Over the weekend there was a raft of weaker Chinese data that has also weighed on the AUD. It started this week making fresh lows just under 0.9400. Trying to pick a bottom or turning point of a strong downtrend like this is never a good idea. There are however some indicators that can point to an increased risk of a reversal. Recent data released on speculative short (sold) positions in the AUD show they are at a historical extreme. What this tells us is that any speculative players who want to sell the AUD have already done so. The downside should now be harder going for the currency, and there is an increased risk of a sharp reversal. Any such reversal will need a trigger. Whether this week’s data in the form of business confidence, consumer confidence, or employment numbers, will be that trigger, remains to be seen.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
AUD/USD 0.9427 0.9400 0.9600 0.9397 - 0.9756

Friday 7th June 5:15PM (NZT) - Update
Although the AUD started the week strongly against the USD on the back of soft US manufacturing data, it was short lived. Relentless selling pressure saw the AUD turndown from Monday’s high and never look back. It wasn’t helped along the way by Australian GDP data coming in below expectation and the currency ended up trading a low yesterday of 0.9435. Last night saw a recovery and spike higher on the back of a rumoured large US sell order that caused liquidity to dry up. The AUD spiked from 0.9480 to around 0.9670 before falling back to 0.9560 where is trades now. We get all important US employment data tonight, and with markets as jittery as they are there is plenty of potential for more wild action. Even though the AUD has fallen a long way in the last few weeks, for now the focus remains on the downside.
The current interbank midrate is:    AUDUSD 0.9510

The interbank range this week has been:    AUDUSD 0.9435 - 0.9791
Tuesday 4th June 4:50PM (NZT)
The AUD tested toward recent lows on Friday night after strong US consumer confidence, but the weakness was short lived. Better data from China provided the initial support for the AUD, but the biggest move higher in the AUD came on the back of very weak manufacturing data out of the US. This saw the currency up through 0.9700, a level that had capped it for much of last week. The high reached was actually not far short 0.9800. Speculators who have been following the trend of the last month and have sold AUD, will now be thinking about buying it back. In which case, this move higher could have further to run and 0.9700 will now provide support on the downside. The topside sees initial resistance at 0.9840. We can expect lots more action with the RBA rate announcement this afternoon, and key US employment data on Friday.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
AUD/USD 0.9720 0.9700 0.9840 0.9528 - 0.9791

Friday 31st May 2:25PM (NZT) - Update
The AUD is ending the week roughly in line with where it started after earlier making fresh lows at 0.9528. The currency has a tough time lately, and it remains to be seen whether the small bounce from recent lows can extend into a broader corrective move. It will take a sustained move above 0.9700 to show there is some life left in Australian dollar, and open the way for a possible test of 0.9840. But with the broad fundamentals of a slowing Australian economy and improving US data, sellers will happily take advantage of any AUD strength. Next week could well be a volatile one with plenty of key data out in both the US and Australia.
The current interbank midrate is:    AUDUSD 0.9652

The interbank range this week has been:    AUDUSD 0.9528 - 0.9778
Tuesday 28th May 4:50PM (NZT)
The AUD has remained on the back foot recently, with little in the way of positive news flow to turn things around. There is a lot of negative sentiment around at the moment with talk of it trading down to 0.9000 over the next 12 months. As I write this the currency is testing the 0.9600 level. A move below 0.9580 would see the target will shift to 0.9388, being the low from October 2011. The fate of the AUD over the rest of this week will likely be determined by US consumer confidence and GDP data. Topside resistance comes in at 0.9710, where there will likely be a plentiful supply of Australian dollars.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
AUD/USD .9635 .9580 .9710 .9594 - .9831

Friday  24th May 3:00PM (NZT) - Update
The AUD has remained on the back foot this week. A combination of negative data and news flow provided the lead. The pair traded down from 0.9830 in the middle of the week, to touch a low around 0.9600 late yesterday. We have seen a decent bounce from that low, with the AUDUSD currently trading back above 0.9700, but it’s hard to see what is going to change the overall trend. Next week’s second tier data on lending and building approvals certainly won’t have enough of an impact. US data will be key going forward, as the market further prices in a scaling back of QE. Resistance on the upside comes in at 0.9840. It would take a move back above there to suggest the near term downside action might have run it course. Until then, the risk is for further downside for the AUD.
The current interbank midrate is:    AUDUSD .9673

The interbank range this week has been:    AUDUSD .9600 - .9831
Tuesday 21st May 3:50PM (NZT)
After making lows late last week just above 0.9700, the AUD has recovered a touch thanks to the USD giving back some of it’s recent gains. The recovery in the AUD was dealt a small blow leading into the release of the RBA minutes, as selling pressure saw it fall from 0.9820 to 0.9760. However, the minutes themselves might actually help support the AUD over the coming days, as another rate cuts doesn’t seem imminent. Key to direction for the rest of the week will be comments from Fed president Bernanke tomorrow when he testifies on the economic outlook. If he fails to give any signal that the Fed is looking at scaling back QE over the coming months, support for the USD will wane. Under this scenario the AUD could easily climb back above .9900.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
AUD/USD .9808 .9700 1.0000 .9707 - .9918

Friday  17th May 4:20PM (NZT) - Update
The AUD has suffered at the hands of a strong USD all week. After breaking below the psychological level of 1.000, the AUD has continued to lose ground. That level will now provide topside resistance on any bouts of AUD strength. The lows of the week are around 0.9750 and the currency is currently trading not far above there. Although the focus is still on the downside, there is the risk of a corrective bounce as the week draws to a close. The market is firmly negative on the AUD at the moment though and any rallies will eventually run into willing sellers. Next week sees consumer confidence data, inflation expectations, and release of the minutes from the recent RBA monetary policy meeting providing particular focus.
The current interbank midrate is:    AUDUSD .9764

The interbank range this week has been:    AUDUSD .9757 - 1.0075
Tuesday 14th May 3:15PM (NZT)
The recent bout of USD strength that has come on top of the rate cut by the RBA last week, has left the AUD looking very vulnerable. It has now pushed below the important psychological level 1.0000 with the USD. The downside remains the focus, and any rallies should be capped around resistance at 1.0150. Apart from the Federal budget tonight that should reinforce the view of a struggling economy, there is little in the way of data to drive the market. The focus will then be on offshore events, and just how far the resurgent USD has to run.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
AUD/USD .9976 .9950 1.0150 .9945 - 1.0250

Friday  10th May 3:15PM (NZT) - Update
After the RBA’s decision to cut rates on Tuesday the AUD immediately came under selling pressure. However, there was a lack of follow through selling, and the lows that traded around 1.0160 in the hours after the cut were never severely tested again. What followed was some consolidation and a minor retracement back above 1.0200. Stronger Chinese export data helped the AUD regain some composure. Thursday’s strong employment data saw the currency recover almost all of it’s earlier losses to trade around where it was prior to the RBA cut. But the AUD wasn’t done yet, and the bout of strong USD buying across the board early Friday morning saw the AUD under renewed pressure. The increased USD demand saw the pair fall from around 1.0200, to make a fresh low on the week of 1.0024. The AUD is probably now in for some choppy action as the market tries to work out where to go next. Further downside tests can’t be ruled out as the AUD continues to look a little vulnerable.
The current interbank midrate is:    AUDUSD 1.0080

The interbank range this week has been:    AUDUSD 1.0065 - 1.0315
Tuesday 7th May 5:15PM (NZT)
The AUD has been under pressure recently with a spike higher on Friday to 1.0320 proving short lived, and key support at 1.0225 back under pressure. Recent data from both Australia and China has mostly been soft, maintaining the downside in focus. The RBA easing of the cash rate today should provide further pressure to AUD in the coming sessions. Certainly the Australian employment numbers on Thursday now become the focus. Any positive US numbers should provide further tests lower for this pair.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
AUD/USD 1.0188 1.0150 1.0350 1.0171 - 1.0375

Friday  3rd May 4:45PM (NZT) - Update
With little on the domestic front to drive prices, offshore factors have dominated play in the AUD this week, and this theme will continue tonight with the release of US employment data. An attempt to rally from the 1.0275 level looked promising early in the week, but a swift rejection from around 1.0375 has seen the AUD back below where it stated, testing minor support at 1.0225. Selling of AUD on the crosses against EUR, GBP, and JPY all seemed to have exasperated the move. This leaves the AUD looking a little vulnerable heading into what is a relatively busy upcoming week on the domestic front. Anything the RBA says in the release of their interest rate decision on Tuesday will be closely analysed by the market for clues as to the timing of the next interest rate move. If they signal a cut is likely over the coming months, expect the AUD to lose more ground.
The current interbank midrate is:    AUDUSD 1.0265

The interbank range this week has been:    AUDUSD 1.0244 - 1.0377
Tuesday 30th April 4:15PM (NZT)
After testing major support toward 1.0200 in the middle of last week, the AUD has seen a gradual, and sometimes choppy, recovery from those lows. It’s probably fair to say a good part of the recovery has been due to general USD weakness, although stronger commodity prices will have helped the AUD somewhat as well. Currently trading around 1.0350, and with little in the way of top tier Australian data this week, it will be reaction to the Fed meeting on Wednesday and US employment data on Friday that drives the currency from here. Certainly, the increased prospect of further easing from the RBA in the coming months will continue to be a factor that should temper sharp appreciation from the AUD. Buyers looking to play the range of the past 10 months will no doubt emerge on any dips into the 1.0200-1.0250 area ahead of Friday.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
AUD/USD 1.0346 1.0200 1.0400 1.0226 - 1.0354

Friday 26th April 4:45PM (NZT) - Update
The AUD continues to trade within the broad range of 1.02 to 1.06 that has defined trading since July last year, although more recently levels above 1.05 have been short lived. The past week saw a dip to the lower end of that range, touching 1.0225, where buyers have emerged. The recovery off those lows has been choppy with the tame CPI data causing a knee jerk pull back. But again support emerged and the AUD heads into the final part of the week looking firm aided by stronger commodity prices and weaker US data. The driving force over the coming week will come from the raft of top tier data out in the US, along with the release of the Federal Reserve interest rate decision on Wednesday.
The current interbank midrate is:    AUDUSD 1.0310

The interbank range this week has been:    AUDUSD 1.0226 - 1.0353
Tuesday 23rd April 6:15PM (NZT)
The Australian dollar has continued to under perform over the last week. The resistance at 1.0350 tempered the one material bounce, and represents reasonable resistance going forward. The weaker than expected Chinese manufacturing numbers have further undermined prospects for the AUD today. Increasing chances of a cut to the 3.00% cash rate from the RBA should contain any significant bounces from the AUD in the short term. Tomorrow Australian inflation numbers will offer some focus ahead of the advanced 1st quarter GDP numbers in the US on Friday. Those who have been patiently waiting for an opportunity to buy Australian dollars at less elevated levels should be considering level to target in the coming days/weeks.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
AUD/USD 1.0236 1.0150 1.0350 1.0222 - 1.0392

Friday 19th April 4:02PM (NZT) - Update
After opening at the week’s highs, the AUD has seen renewed pressure from the US dollar this week. The primary drivers have been the weaker than expected Chinese growth numbers, and the increased wider market risk aversion that has occurred for a number of reasons. The pair has spent the last few days gyrating around the crucial 1.0300 level where it currently sits. Whilst the interest rate market prices increased odds of further easing from the RBA, the pressure should remain on the AUD. The focus next week for this pair will come from the Australian inflation number on Wednesday, and the advanced US Q1 GDP numbers on Friday. Consolidation through the 1.0300 opened up the way for another leg lower. Should this play out, it will no doubt be aided by further softening in global share markets.
The current interbank midrate is:    AUDUSD 1.0311

The interbank range this week has been:    AUDUSD 1.0281 - 1.0518
Tuesday 16th April 4:42PM (NZT)
This pair spent a good portion of last week trying to establish itself through the resistance at 1.0500. Ironically, whilst it was able to do it for a time following the disappointing Australian unemployment numbers, the weak US data proved to be the start of its demise. These weak US retail sales numbers created a question over risk appetite in the wider market. As the weak Chinese GDP number coupled with the ongoing softer US outlook, the demand for the US started to gain momentum. The collapse in the hard commodity markets, and following terror events in Boston should temper any rebound in demand for the AUD in the short term. Today's RBA monetary policy meeting minutes gave little fresh insight, and now the focus turns to the run of US data for the remainder of the week. The wider market risk appetite will provide the lead for this pair, and the support at the 1.0300 level remains the key in the short term.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
AUD/USD 1.0365 1.0300 1.0500 1.0305 - 1.0578

Friday 12th April 2:08PM (NZT) - Update
The US dollar has seen considerable pressure from the Australian dollar this week. It is interesting as the weeks highs came overnight, after weak Australian employment numbers yesterday. The US dollar weakness can be attributable to lower longer term US interest rates, which are a result of changing expectations from the FED. The pushing out of expected reduction in the monetary stimulation has been a direct result of the recent wave of soft US data. The retail sales and consumer sentiment numbers later on today offer the immediate focus. Any resurgent USD demand will find the 1.0500 level a decent AUD support level, as it was stubborn resistance on the move higher. Over time the current levels should prove to have offered good value buying of USD with Australian dollars.
The current interbank midrate is:    AUDUSD 1.0547

The interbank range this week has been:    AUDUSD 1.0358 - 1.0578
Tuesday 9th April 4:51PM (NZT)
This remains in the 1.0300 -1.0500 range that has grown increasingly familiar over the last month. The positive Australian economic data was not enough to sustain the AUD through the wider market risk aversion that increased towards the end of last week, mostly as a result of the weak US employment numbers. The move lower in the longer term US interest rates points towards continued trading for this pair at the somewhat elevated, current levels. There is plenty to focus on this week, with the latest FED monetary policy meeting minutes to be released ahead of the important Australian employment numbers on Thursday.  Also in the US we have retail sales and consumer confidence numbers on Friday, ahead of another speech by FED chairman Bernanke.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
AUD/USD 1.0430 1.0300 1.0500 1.0358 - 1.0493

Friday 5th April 4:28PM (NZT) - Update
This week has really been a game of two halves for this pair. Strong Australian data and an unchanged RBA monetary policy decision saw the AUD grind higher towards resistance at 1.0500 early in the week. However, the aggressive action from the BOJ yesterday saw the USD in hot demand and the AUD came under pressure. The pair has now consolidated off the weeks lows as the US employment numbers loom later today. Expect some volatility following the numbers, but the wider 1.0300 - 1.0500 range to remain intact. Next week the main Australian focus comes in the form of the employment numbers on Thursday, whilst a myriad of economic data in the US will provide the dominant focus. It seems likely we will get further range trading for this pair in the short term at least.
The current interbank midrate is:    AUDUSD 1.0406

The interbank range this week has been:    AUDUSD 1.0392 - 1.0492
Tuesday 2th April 4:00PM (NZT)
This pair ran out of steam as it approached the 1.0500 resistance level last week. After reaching the week's highs, there were periods of sustained pressure on the AUD and the pair opened this week under further pressure. However, the turnaround came as reasonable Chinese manufacturing numbers were coupled with weak US manufacturing data overnight, and this has eased the way for the pair to move back in the AUD's favour. So the 1.0500 level remains the key in the short term at least. Anywhere around current levels could well prove to have offered good value buying of US dollars with AUD in the coming months. The RBA announcement later today should be of limited impact, but will be closely watched. As will the Australian building approval and retail sales numbers on Thursday. In the US the main focus now comes from the employment numbers on Friday.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
AUD/USD 1.0450 1.0300 1.0500 1.0391 - 1.0493

Tuesday 26th March 4:10PM (NZT)
The Australian dollar saw periods of strong appreciation against the US dollar last week. The RBA monetary policy meeting minutes reiterated their wait and see stance on monetary policy and the interest rate market has reacted accordingly. Interestingly, the survival of PM Gillard as leader of the Labour party also increased AUD demand. Further appreciation from the current levels looks likely to be harder fought than the recent appreciation as the pair approaches resistance at 1.0500. Current levels look to offer good value buying of US dollars. The bulk of this week's focus will come from the data due for release in the US. Durable good sales, consumer confidence and home sales data will all provide valuable insight to the US economy.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
AUD/USD 1.0452 1.0300 1.0500 1.0357 - 1.0477

Friday 22nd March February 4:15PM (NZT) - Update
This had traded a relatively contained range ahead of yesterday’s offshore session. The London market was obviously caught a little "sold" AUD, as PM Gillard survived a leadership threat and solid Chinese manufacturing numbers came to light, the demand for AUD quickly increased. The pair has been tamed by resistance at 1.0430 - 50 level for the time being, but with the RBA minutes confirming it's "wait and see" approach on monetary policy, the recent AUD vulnerability has somewhat diminished. The majority of the focus will come from economic data in the US next week, with just a RBA speech and private sector credit numbers due in Australia. Current levels may prove to have offered reasonably good value buying of US dollars over time.
The current interbank midrate is:    AUDUSD 1.0423

The interbank range this week has been:    AUDUSD 1.0345 - 1.0451
Tuesday 19th March 3:58PM (NZT)
The Australian dollar saw strong gains against the US dollar throughout the course of last week. The boosted demand came following the bonanza Australian employment numbers. Moves in the interest rates market underpinned the increase in the AUD. The AUD started the week under some pressure as the pair gapped lower over the weekend following the increase in uncertainty driven from Cyprus. The AUD has seen grinding appreciation since that lower start, and has stalled at the resistance just above the 1.0400 level. Today's RBA monetary policy meeting minutes revealed the comfort with the current 3% cash rate for the time being. The effects of previous easing's "still have further to run", though the exchange rate remains elevated. The remainder of the week sees the focus provided by US news. The FED's monetary policy statement, homes sales and unemployment numbers come ahead of the latest manufacturing numbers. With the change in bias from the RBA over the last week, the pair seems more comfortable around current levels.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
AUD/USD 1.0388 1.0230 1.0430 1.0273 - 1.0411

Friday 15th March February 4:15PM (NZT) - Update
The Australian dollar has seen strong demand against the US dollar this week. After starting the week on support at 1.0200, appreciation was of a grinding nature ahead of the employment numbers. Reaction to the very strong employment growth saw the AUD jump 75 points and the pair remains poised to attack resistance at 1.0400 in the coming session. Further appreciation from current levels is by no means guaranteed. Certainly the USD has seen some broad based pressure this week, but this was more a case of demand fatigue in my view. Economic news remains improving in the US, and the USD should see support from the consolidation of longer term interest rates at newly elevated levels. Current levels should prove to have offered good value buying of USD in the coming weeks.
The current interbank midrate is:    AUDUSD 1.0370

The interbank range this week has been:    AUDUSD 1.0207 - 1.0397
Monday 11th March 4:01PM (NZT)
This pair continues to muddle around within the expected range, albeit with a bias towards AUD under performance. After starting at the weeks lows, the AUD demand steadily increased following the strong Australian retail sales numbers. After reaching the highs just short of the resistance at 1.0300, the pair spent the remainder of the week in a contained range before the USD saw increased demand following the US employment numbers. The AUD started this week under renewed pressure following the weak Chinese data released over the weekend and the pair finds itself close to the middle of its recent range. The Australian focus for the week comes from Thursday's employment numbers. In the US, retail sales data on Wednesday comes ahead of inflation and consumer sentiment numbers on Friday. The bias for the pair remains to the downside in light of the recent resurgence in US dollar demand.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
AUD/USD 1.0222 1.0100 1.0300 1.0119 - 1.0293

Friday 8th March February 4:00PM (NZT) - Update
The AUD saw initial pressure from the US dollar this week. However the better than expected Australian retail sales numbers saw the momentum shift and the improved global sentiment has seen the AUD grind back up towards the resistance at 1.0300 before tapering off to the current levels. The US employment numbers later on today offer the primary focus for this pair in the short term. Certainly the 1.0300 resistance should offer a significant hurdle for further AUD appreciation. Looking forward to next week, Australian employment numbers on Thursday will be closely watched, as will US retail sales on Wednesday.
The current interbank midrate is:    AUDUSD 1.0255

The interbank range this week has been:    AUDUSD 1.0119 - 1.0293

Tuesday 5th March 4:53PM (NZT)
The USD dollar continued its pressure on the AUD last week. Early this week saw a sharp fall from the AUD following the weekend's change in housing policy in China. This weakness was not to be sustained and the 1.0100 support provided a solid bounce back up to current levels. The better Australian retail sales have enabled this strong bounce back. Expect the volatility to continue this week. The RBA monetary policy meeting, Australian GDP numbers and US employment report will offer the primary focus alongside a raft of second tier data. It looks like further US dollar out performance is going to be harder fought now the easy work has been done. The FED remain committed to the QE program until the unemployment rate falls to 7% in the US, so the employment data on Friday is very important for this pair.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
AUD/USD 1.0199 1.0100 1.0300 1.0119 - 1.0279

Friday 1st March February 4:33PM (NZT) - Update
The Australian dollar has seen renewed pressure from the US dollar this week. There was a bounce in demand for the AUD following the Australian capital expenditure numbers yesterday, but as the patchy data came to light in the offshore session, the US dollar bounced to regain a good portion of the lost ground. Across the board the USD is at crucial levels, and if it can maintain its recent momentum, then we should see the establishment of a new range for this pair. However, there is a host of top tier economic news in both the US and Australia next week, so expect some periods of volatility. Loading orders at targeted levels should pay off in the current environment.
The current interbank midrate is:    AUDUSD 1.0227

The interbank range this week has been:    AUDUSD 1.0186 - 1.0384
Tuesday 26th February 3:53PM (NZT)
This pair remains contained by its recent range. The last week’s price action has seen volatility within the range. The increased risk aversion in the last few days has seen the AUD vulnerability re-emerge and the coming sessions will be key for direction in the short term. Certainly the theme of US dollar strength looks to be in place, but its gains against the AUD have been somewhat limited for the time being. Not even yesterday’s weaker than expected Chinese manufacturing numbers saw sustained pressure on the AUD, and this is likely to be because expectations of near term cuts to the cash rate from the RBA have been pared back. Expect the range trading to continue this week, with the host of US data to dominate the focus alongside Thursday’s private capital expenditure numbers in Australia.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
AUD/USD 1.0285 1.0170 1.0370 1.0226 - 1.0365

Friday 22nd February 4:59PM- Update
The Australian dollar has retested the recent lows around 1.0250 this week, as the US dollar saw increased demand on the back of reasonable economic data and increasing risk aversion in Asia and Europe. However, this afternoons relatively upbeat assessment from RBA Gov. Stevens at Parliament has seen a scramble to buy AUD. This has pushed the pair back up from the weeks lows. This messy price action aside, the 1.0250 level remains the down side target in the short term. Certainly it looks like any material topside moves for the AUD should be somewhat limited in the short term at least, especially if US interest rates remains locked in the recently higher range.
The current interbank midrate is:    AUDUSD .8372

The interbank range this week has been:    AUDUSD 1.0226 - 1.0368
Tuesday 19th February 3:50PM (NZT)
After seeing initial demand against the USD last week, the AUD was contained by resistance at the 1.0370 level. The stronger than expected US data towards the end of last week saw the US dollar take back some lost ground and the pair has started the week gyrating around the 1.0300 level. Today's RBA monetary policy meeting minutes were of no surprise, albeit the AUD has seen some demand following the release. The RBA will ease the official interest rate if required, but certainly is not pre-committing to any course of action at this stage. The remainder of the week’s focus comes from the US with the FED meeting minutes, inflation and manufacturing numbers. The US dollar demand does look like its is gaining a little momentum, but as recent history suggests, the FED will go to any lengths to ensure some kind of recovery continues, and this may mean undermining the USD at times throughout the year.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
AUD/USD 1.0319 1.0170 1.0370 1.0231 - 1.0368

Friday 15th February 6:36PM (NZT)- Update
It has been an interesting week for this pair. The Australian dollars vulnerability was exposed early as the USD saw a period of strong demand which saw the pair pushed to the lowest levels since October. However, the weakness did not last and a strong reaction to a leap higher in consumer sentiment numbers saw the AUD bounce from the lows. Since then the pair has consolidated in a relatively small range in the mid 1.03's. Certainly the AUD has had a reprieve, and the pair seems caught in the middle of strong equity markets and increased growth worries in Europe. Next week will see most of the direction come from US data, but the RBA monetary policy meeting minutes on Tuesday will be watched. In the US, building permits, FED meeting minutes, inflation and manufacturing numbers will garner attention. The pair seems fair value at current levels.
 
The current interbank midrate is: AUDUSD 1.0365
 
The interbank range this week has been: AUDUSD 1.0231 - 1.0374
 
Tuesday 12th February 5:50PM (NZT)
Over the last week this pair has seen grinding appreciation from the US dollar. The AUD under performance has hardly been of surprise given the downbeat nature of the economic news. With various support levels broken, there appears to be room for further AUD under performance in the near term at least. The RBA continue to subtlety undermine AUD demand with the door widely left open for further monetary policy easing (lower interest rates). This week is light on economic news in Australia, so the focus will come from the retail sales and consumer sentiment numbers in the US.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
AUD/USD 1.0249 1.0170 1.0370 1.0247 - 1.0419

Friday 8th February 4:10PM- Update
The AUD has been outperformed by the US dollar again this week. The week has seen a good mixture of increased USD demand and lower AUD demand. The RBA leaving the door open for further easing if required should curb any material AUD bounce in the short term. The Evans comments from overnight are of note, and all eyes will be closely on US employment numbers in the coming months. With longer end US interest rates starting to consolidate at higher levels, natural USD demand should be forth coming throughout 2013. A sustained break of the 1.0250 level would open up the way for further AUD weakness, however this may take some time.  Given the recent move, consolidation in the 1.0250-1.0425 range may play our in the coming week.
 
The current interbank midrate is:                                                    AUDUSD 1.0289 
                                                                                         
The interbank range so far this week to date has been:        AUDUSD 1.0262 – 1.0450
(NZT)Tuesday 5th February 6:10PM (NZT)
This pair remains towards the lower end of its recent range. Last week has seen reasonably volatile price action within a relatively contained range. The AUD has come under pressure following yesterday’s reversal of recent improved global sentiment, and todays brief RBA monetary policy statement. Whilst leaving the cash rate unchanged at 3.00% the RBA have left the door open for further easing if the recent bounce in global sentiment cannot be sustained. A busy remainder of the week is ensured with Australian retail sales tomorrow, employment Thursday, and the quarterly RBA Monetary Policy Statement on Friday. It seems likely that we will see a test of support levels in the coming sessions, with 1.0350 the obviously target in the short term.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
AUD/USD 1.0402 1.0370 1.0570 1.0368 - 1.0473

Friday 1st February 11:40 AM (NZT)
This pair remains towards the lower end of its recent 1.0380 – 1.0580 range. Without doubt, the focus is on the RBA monetary policy decision next week. It order to see the AUD move lower, consolidation through the 1.0380 level is necessary. It seems unlikely an easing to the cash rate will be given with the improved sentiment offshore. With market talk of large month end flows out of US dollars, there is a possibility of a bounce in demand for US dollars over the next few sessions. Retail sales and employment numbers will maintain the Australian side of the focus next week, and will give further guidance to RBA for subsequent policy meetings.
 
The current interbank midrate is:                                                  AUDUSD 1.0421. 
                                                                                         
The interbank range so far this week to date has been:        AUDUSD 1.0388 – 1.0473
Tuesday 29th January 4:55PM (NZT)
The Australian dollar has continued to look somewhat vulnerable over the last week. The support at 1.0400 remains the key in the near term, as the pair has not been able to consolidate through that level yet. Much of the lead has been driven by AUD supply coming from large moves lower against the EURO, and this may well prove to be part of paradigm shift in the wider markets. Next week’s RBA monetary policy decision remains the AUD focus in the short term, with mixed opinions on whether or not a further cut to the cash rate will be seen at this meeting. But ahead of that we have a host of top tier economic data and a FED monetary policy decision in the US. With no change expected from the FED, the latest GDP and employment numbers will likely provide the primary focus.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
AUD/USD 1.0435 1.0400 1.0600 1.0389 - 1.0573

Friday 25th January 2:39PM (NZT)
The big news of the week for this pair has been the lower than expected inflation number in Australia(therefore increased chances of a lower cash rate).This has undermined the demand for the AUD, and somewhat surprisingly against some strong more positive external factors. The equity markets at 5-6 year highs, boosted sentiment in Europe, and improved Chinese numbers have not been enough to push the AUD higher. The inability to forge higher illustrates the current vulnerability. Ahead of the RBA monetary policy decision on the 5th Feb, expect this vulnerability to remain. With the strong opposing forces at play do not expect moves to be pronounced, and levels of support will be found. Next week sees a busy economic calendar in the US, and little in the way of top tier economic data in Australia.
 
The current interbank midrate is:                                                  AUDUSD 1.0448 
                                                                                         
The interbank range so far this week to date has been:       AUDUSD 1.0440 – 1.0573
Tuesday 22nd January 3:55PM (NZT)
This remains stuck within what has become a familiar 1.0480 - 1.0580 range. Certainly the momentum wanes each time the pair approaches the 1.0600 level. Given the inability to surge higher amid the duo of five year highs in the equity markets and solid Chinese growth numbers, it looks increasingly likely that the pair will be capped by resistance at 1.0600 in the short term at least. Wednesdays inflation numbers in Australia provide the local focus, whilst the latest housing numbers in the US will be closely watched. Current levels could well prove to have offered good value buying of US dollars over time.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
AUD/USD 1.0518 1.0400 1.0600 1.0490 - 1.0573

Tuesday 15th January 4:55PM (NZT)
This pair has seen interesting price action since the new year. Periods of strong demand for Australian dollars have been interspersed with sharp declines. The patchy economic numbers continue for both economies, but the surprising strength of the Chinese data and increased wider market sentiment have fuelled the AUD out performance. US retail sales, company earnings reports, and inflation numbers will dominate the focus in the US for the remainder of the week. In Australia the employment numbers on Thursday will hold the attention. The 1.0600 level should cap the appreciation in the short term and current levels look to offer reasonable value buying of US dollars in the short term at least.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
AUD/USD 1.0553 1.0400 1.0600 1.0475 - 1.0596

Friday 21st December 2012 2:50PM (NZT)
The US dollar has seen a steady increase in demand this week. As expected the pair struggled to consolidate at the elevated levels over 1.0500 in the absence of a fiscal cliff deal in the US. From here on into next week and the start of the new year, expect the price action to be whippy at times. Any AUD demand following the announcement of a deal in the US may provide an opportunity to buy better value USD than the reasonable value the current levels offer, but the opportunity may prove to be brief.
 
The current interbank midrate is:                                                   AUDUSD 1.0452 
                                                                                         
The interbank range so far this week to date has been:        AUDUSD 1.0439 – 1.0574
Tuesday 18th December 2012 5:10PM (NZT)
This pair broke the resistance at 1.0520 early last week, and this opened up the way for further appreciation to the August highs at 1.0580. That level has capped the pair at this stage and this week has seen a little US dollar demand emerge to stem further AUD appreciation. The US fiscal situation looks to be coming to a conclusion and this may lead to further US dollar demand. The RBA monetary policy meeting minutes were of limited impact today and now the focus turns to the raft of US data due for release on Thursday. The improved US data of late has seen the US bond yields move higher and this should be USD supportive in the short term at least. Current levels look to offer good value buying of US dollars.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
AUD/USD 1.0542 1.0380 1.0580 1.0471 - 1.0574

Tuesday 11th December 2012 3:45PM (NZT)
The AUD pushed higher against the embattled US dollar last week. The expected easing of the cash rate from the RBA would have softened the pressure on the USD, but the strong Australian employment numbers reignited AUD demand in the short term. The resistance at 1.0520 has contained the appreciation so far. This week sees a majority of the focus come from the US economy, FED and fiscal negotiations. There are expectations of further policy accommodation from the FED on Wednesday in the US. Any progress on the fiscal situation will be welcomed by the market. Further appreciation from the current levels for this pair should prove hard fought. And current levels could well prove to have offered good value buying of USD with Australian dollars over time.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
AUD/USD 1.0470 1.0320 1.0520 1.0418 - 1.0504

Monday 3rd December 2012 4:52PM (NZT)
Last week’s price actions was relatively contained for this pair. Positive news was well balanced by persistent concerns about the US fiscal cliff. This week’s flurry of economic data in Australia has started with weak retail sales numbers and this has pushed the AUD down early. Third quarter GDP and employment numbers, couple with the RBA monetary policy decision on Tuesday to provide heightened Australian focus for the remainder of the week. Given the RBA are likely to ease the cash rate to 3.00%, the bias is to the down side from current levels. Recent dips in the price action have seen increased demand emerge, and it will be interesting to see if this transpires. On going niggle provided by US fiscal negotiations should support the US dollar in December, or at least until a result is found.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
AUD/USD 1.0409 1.0320 1.0520 1.0388 - 1.0491

Tuesday 27th November 2012 4:44 PM (NZT)
This pair spent most of last week in a contained range. The break higher for the AUD came on Friday as risk aversion evaporated and resistance at 1.0420 was cleanly broken. Following today’s Greek debt deal announcement the AUD has again attempted to make higher ground, but at this stage has not been able to break the 1.0520 level. US news should dominate the lead from now for this pair. The primary focus comes in the form of the preliminary GDP numbers on Thursday. Next week is very busy for news in both economies. In Australia the RBA monetary policy announcement, employment numbers and GDP will provide the top level focus. In the US, the excitement comes from the latest manufacturing, employment and consumer sentiment numbers. The US fiscal negotiations loom in the back ground, adding another layer to what is an already complicated next couple of weeks.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
AUD/USD 1.0481 1.0320 1.0520 1.0333 - 1.0491

Tuesday 20th November 2012 3:56 PM (NZT)
After initially making up some ground last week, the Australian dollar saw some solid pressure from the US dollar. Only late on Friday did the sentiment turn, as the positive rhetoric on the fiscal negotiations out of the US hit the headlines. This has continued this week as some more positive economic news also boosted sentiment. Today’s RBA minutes re-iterate to the market that they remain poised to ease to 3.00% if appropriate. This has stalled the AUD demand and the pair remains in what has become very familiar ground. Wider market sentiment will be the main driver from current level. Anywhere from current levels to the resistance at 1.0450, offers good value buying of US dollars with AUD.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
AUD/USD 1.0403 1.0250 1.0450 1.0283 -1.0462

Tuesday 13th November 2012 4:55 PM (NZT)
The RBA leaving the cash rate unchanged at 3.25% set the positive tone for the AUD last week. This pair even endured the Obama win of the US election on a better footing than other pairs. This is because there was a scramble to buy back “sold AUD” positions from investors that were positioning for an easing of the cash rate. This week sees the pair poised just above the initial support level of 1.0400, and further appreciation for the pair should be reasonably hard fought with the US fiscal situation looming large in the back ground. The US will be the focus this week with the latest retail sales, inflation and manufacturing numbers being joined by the FED meeting minutes and fiscal negotiations as the focus.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
AUD/USD 1.0409 1.0280 1.0480 1.0333 - 1.0480

Entries previous to this have been deleted as there are time sensitive and lose value as time progresses. Please refer to our charts page for price action on a historical basis. The chart page can be seen here : http://www.directfx.co.nz/CurrencyChart.html