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AUD to EURO Exchange Rate

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When converting Australian dollars (AUD) to EURO, or EURO to AUD, by exchanging via Direct FX, you will save a significant amount of money. Our wholesale currency exchange rates for money transfers are significantly more competitive than bank foreign exchange rates. Being Australasian based, we specialise in knowing what drives AUD and EURO currency conversion rates.

AUD to EURO Overview:From the establishment of the Euro zone, until the financial market crisis of 2008, the AUD and EURO both traded in a relatively stable and correlated fashion. However since 2008 this close correlation has broken down considerably. The Australian economy has maintained upward momentum through its close links to the quickly developing Asian economies.The EURO however has been plagued by sovereign debt issues from its smaller nations, as Germany remains its engine for growth.
 
Historical Ranges: 1 year  5 years 10 years 
AUD/EURO .6568 - .7339 .6025 - .8620 .4734 - .8620
EURO/AUD 1.3625 - 1.5225 1.1601 - 1.6598 1.1601 - 2.1123

Current Official Cash Rates:
Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA): 1.50%         European Central Bank (ECB): -0.30%

AUD EURO Weekly Updates:                                                                              Back to FX Updates

Friday 20th October 3:00pm(NZT)
The AUD has gradually weakened against the EUR over the week, now at 0.6652 after  0.6690 on Monday...next support level is at 0.6610 and given the stronger EUR/USD trend we should a move to this level early next week.
The current interbank midrate is:    AUDEUR 0.6645    EURAUD 1.5050

The interbank range this week has been:    AUDEUR 0.6610 - 0.6688    EURAUD 1.4953 - 1.5129
Tuesday 17th October 4:30pm(NZT) 

Now around 0.6665 and we favour the Australian dollar given the Catalan problems are starting to unsettle EUR direction. Draghi comments on Wednesday will bear watching.

  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
AUD/EURO 0.6661 0.6590 0.6760 0.6562 - 0.6688
EURO/AUD 1.5013 1.4792 1.5174 1.4953 - 1.5240

Friday 13th October 3:30pm(NZT)
The Australian dollar is now lower at 0.6613 against the Euro and given ECB ‘s  Draghi comments last night on continuation of lower interest rates a grind back to 0.6650/60 looks possible next week as a step to the 0.6700 region.
The current interbank midrate is:    AUDEUR 0.6613    EURAUD 1.5123

The interbank range this week has been:    AUDEUR 0.6562 - 0.6657    EURAUD 1.5021 - 1.5240
Tuesday 10th October 4:00pm(NZT)

The Australian dollar is slightly weaker against the Euro at 0.6611 but continues to mark time, we still look for a move to 0.6700 and above and the Draghi speech on Thursday may provide the catalyst.

  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
AUD/EURO 0.6606 0.6590 0.6760 0.6601 - 0.6689
EURO/AUD 1.5138 1.4792 1.5174 1.4950 - 1.5149

Friday 6th October 3:30pm(NZT)
The Australian dollar is still looking for direction vs the Euro. It is now at 0.6653 and we continue to favour a push onto 0.6700, but after the shocker Aussie retail sales, further data will have to be supportive for such a move to develop.
The current interbank midrate is:    AUDEUR 0.6655    EURAUD 1.5027

The interbank range this week has been:    AUDEUR 0.6622 - 0.6689    EURAUD 1.4950 - 1.5102
Tuesday 3rd October 4:30pm(NZT)

Direction remains unclear on this cross although Spanish concerns have seen the AUD strengthen marginally to 0.6664, a push onto 0.6700 is possible over the next few days.

  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
AUD/EURO 0.6676 0.6590 0.6760 0.6622 - 0.6706
EURO/AUD 1.4980 1.4792 1.5174 1.4913 - 1.5102

Friday 29th September 4:30pm(NZT)
The AUD is now at 0.6658 on this cross after a low of 0.6634 for the week, no clear direction and should hold current levels to start next week.
The current interbank midrate is:    AUDEUR 0.6656    EURAUD 1.5025

The interbank range this week has been:    AUDEUR 0.6622 - 0.6707    EURAUD 1.4910 - 1.5101
Tuesday 26th September 5:30pm(NZT)

The AUD has had a better start to the week on this cross, now at 0.6701 but given the current risk sentiment unlikely to test 0.6760 in the next couple of days...look for consolidation at current levels.

  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
AUD/EURO 0.6696 0.6590 0.6760 0.6620 - 0.6759
EURO/AUD 1.4934 1.4792 1.5174 1.4796 - 1.5107

Friday 22nd September 4:00pm(NZT)
The Australian dollar has pulled back to 0.6632 currently and looks to test 0.6590 support next week. Resistance at 0.6760 now looks far away.
The current interbank midrate is:    AUDEUR 0.6629    EURAUD 1.5085

The interbank range this week has been:    AUDEUR 0.6620 - 0.6759    EURAUD 1.4796 - 1.5107
Friday 15th September 4:00pm(NZT)
The AUD no around 0.6710, still within the existing 0.6650-0.6726 range, AUD data over the week has been good and the current trend is AUD positive. The high for the week has been 0.6751, look for this to be revisited next week.
The current interbank midrate is:    AUDEUR 0.6710    EURAUD 1.4904

The interbank range this week has been:    AUDEUR 0.6690 - 0.6750    EURAUD 1.4814 - 1.4949
Tuesday 12th September 4:00pm(NZT)

The Australian dollar is lower at 0.6695 vs the Euro, but still within the existing range.  AUD weakness has been countered by the ECB comments on the strength of the EUR. We expect the 0.6650-0.6726 current range to hold ahead of the Aussie jobs data on Thursday.

  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
AUD/EURO 0.6695 0.6590 0.6840 0.6669 - 0.6739
EURO/AUD 1.4936 1.4620 1.5174 1.4838 - 1.4995

Friday 8th September 4:00pm(NZT)
Still within the old 0.6650-0.6726 range, now at 0.6714 after a high of 0.6741 earlier in the week...the ECB has helped the EUR on this cross but still no clear direction ...any increase in Korean tensions will affect the AUD more than the EUR.
The current interbank midrate is:    AUDEUR 0.6701    EURAUD 1.4923

The interbank range this week has been:    AUDEUR 0.6669 - 0.6739    EURAUD 1.4838 - 1.4995
Tuesday 5th September 4:00pm(NZT)

The AUD at 0.6685 trading in a 0.6650-0.6726 range over the last 4 days, solid AUD data over the next few days may help with a push back over 0.6700 but ECB has the power to surprise at Thursday’s meeting...range should hold for the next few days.

  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
AUD/EURO 0.6684 0.6590 0.6840 0.6591 - 0.6710
EURO/AUD 1.4962 1.4620 1.5174 1.4903 - 1.5172

Friday 1st September 4:00pm(NZT)
The AUD is at 0.6680 on this cross, up from 0.6591 earlier in the week. Better Eurozone  economic data favours the EUR on this cross and we look for another push to 0.6600 levels next week.
The current interbank midrate is:    AUDEUR 0.6675    EURAUD 1.4981

The interbank range this week has been:    AUDEUR 0.6591 - 0.6718    EURAUD 1.4886 - 1.5172
Tuesday 29th August 4:30pm(NZT)

The Australian dollar is still in a sideways pattern albeit more GBP positive with the AUD lower at 0.6128 the renewed risk-off tone favours the GBP on this cross and a move down towards 0.6100 now looks likely.

  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
AUD/EURO 0.6621 0.6660 0.6840 0.6605 - 0.6742
EURO/AUD 1.5104 1.6116 1.6502 1.4833 - 1.5139

Friday 25th August 3:30pm(NZT)
The AUD has drifted lower this week on the stronger EUR now at 0.6695 and on any ECB tightening talk tonight would see support at 0.6660 threatened.
The current interbank midrate is:    AUDEUR 0.6693    EURAUD 1.4940

The interbank range this week has been:    AUDEUR 0.6673 - 0.6759    EURAUD 1.4796 - 1.4987
Tuesday 22nd August 3:30pm(NZT)

The Australian dollar is easier on this cross as the Euro as strengthened against the USD. It is now around 0.6724 and should trade in the 0.6685-06750 range over the next few days.

  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
AUD/EURO 0.6723 0.6660 0.6840 0.6660 - 0.6786
EURO/AUD 1.4874 1.4620 1.5015 1.4737 - 1.5014

Friday 18th August 3:30pm(NZT)
The ECB more dovish comments have seen the AUD rally to 6788 two days ago, has weakened a little overnight to 0.6730 but direction is unclear...should hold around current levels into next week but we favour a slide in the AUD back to towards the 0.6660 level..
The current interbank midrate is:    AUDEUR 0.6729    EURAUD 1.4861

The interbank range this week has been:    AUDEUR 0.6658 - 0.6786    EURAUD 1.4737 - 1.5021
Tuesday 15th August 3:30pm(NZT)

The Australian dollar is back at similar levels to last weeks close ...now at 0.6680 but good EUR data could push the AUD back on this cross to 0.6650/56.

  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
AUD/EURO 0.6679 0.6615 0.6840 0.6658 - 0.6744
EURO/AUD 1.4971 1.4620 1.5117 1.4829 - 1.5021

Friday 11th August 3:00pm(NZT)
The Australian dollar has weakened on this cross, more affected by the safe-haven flows, now at 0.6685 after 0.6746 earlier in the week. Immediate support is 0.6656 and should hold this level heading to next week.
The current interbank midrate is:    AUDEUR 0.6665    EURAUD 1.5004

The interbank range this week has been:    AUDEUR 0.6663 - 0.6746    EURAUD 1.4823 - 1.5009
Tuesday 8th August 4:00pm(NZT)

The Australian dollar is marking time on this cross, now at 0.6706 but it looks as if it will weaken further and head back to the 0.6685 level over the next few days.

  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
AUD/EURO 0.6701 0.6615 0.6840 0.6683 - 0.6794
EURO/AUD 1.4924 1.4620 1.5117 1.4718 - 1.4963

Friday 4th August 3:00pm(NZT)
The Australian dollar has gradually weakened against the Euro over the week. It is currently at 0.6702 after 0.6815 on Monday. The EUR should continue its grind higher against the AUD and we look for a target of 0.6656 next week. This would provide a good opportunity for those looking to transfer EUR to AUD.
The current interbank midrate is:    AUDEUR 0.6697    EURAUD 1.4932

The interbank range this week has been:    AUDEUR 0.6683 - 0.6826    EURAUD 1.4650 - 1.4963
Friday 28th July 1:00pm(NZT)
The Australian dollar traded to lows against the Euro of 0.6769 in the immediate aftermath of soft Australian inflation data on Wednesday. Since then however, volatility in the wider market has seen the AUD outperform the EUR and the pair reached a high of 0.6865 yesterday. A correction overnight now sees the AUDEUR trading close to where it started the week. With little in the way of overall direction for the pair, we expect to see further choppy prices action over the coming days.
The current interbank midrate is:    AUDEUR 0.6821    EURAUD 1.4660

The interbank range this week has been:    AUDEUR 0.6769 - 0.6865    EURAUD 1.4568 - 1.4772
Tuesday 25th July 1:00pm(NZT)

The Euro staged a decent recovery against the Australian dollar in the second half of last week. The pair had previously traded to a high of 0.6929 (low of 1.4433), but by the end of the week a resurgent EUR had driven the cross back to support around 0.6770 (resistance around 1.4771). The market currently trades around 0.6810 (1.4684) as it awaits the key data release of the week in tomorrow Australian inflation figure. The data outcome may well dictate direction over the coming days. The market is expecting a quarterly inflation outcome of 0.4%.

  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
AUD/EURO 0.6809 0.6760 0.6840 0.6768 - 0.6929
EURO/AUD 1.4687 1.4620 1.4793 1.4433 - 1.4776

Friday 21th July 1:00pm(NZT)
For much of the week the Australian dollar significantly outperformed the Euro, driving the pair to highs of 0.6929 (lows of 1.4433) yesterday afternoon. That high was made in the immediate aftermath of the strong Australian employment report, but since then the EUR has managed to claw back some the lost ground to the AUD. The trigger for the EUR recovery was last night’s ECB meeting where, despite his best attempts, President Draghi couldn’t stop the Euro from reacting to the improving economic outlook. Immediate support comes in around 0.6825 and as long as the market holds above that level, the focus remains on the topside and further gains. A break below that support level however, may well signal a much bigger correct lower is developing.
The current interbank midrate is:    AUDEUR 0.6836    EURAUD 1.4631

The interbank range this week has been:    AUDEUR 0.6768 - 0.6929    EURAUD 1.4433 - 1.4776
Tuesday 18th July 1:00pm(NZT)

The Australian dollar was one of the best performing currencies last week and as such its gains against the Euro should be no major surprise. That being said, gains for the pair stalled at the 0.6840 level which marks the high from back on 20th June. After two failed attempts at that level we have seen the cross drift a touch lower overnight to now trade at 0.6790. This week should be a big one with plenty of potential volatility. From Australia we have the RBA minutes this afternoon the employment data on Thursday. While from Europe we have the ECB meeting on Thursday night to digest.

  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
AUD/EURO 0.6785 0.6760 0.6840 0.6651 - 0.6837
EURO/AUD 1.4738 1.4620 1.4793 1.4627 - 1.5035
 
Friday 14th July 12:00pm(NZT)
The Australian dollar has had a good week making significant gains across the board. The EUR was matching those gains early in the week, but over the past 36 hours EUR selling has seen the cross rate surge. Once the pair broke above minor resistance around 0.6690 it been largely one way traffic to the topside. Last night it traded to a high of 0.6799 and it’s currently consolidating not far below that level. For the time being the risks are skewed to further gains with the target been a test of 0.6840.
The current interbank midrate is:    AUDEUR 0.6782    EURAUD 1.4746

The interbank range this week has been:    AUDEUR 0.6634 - 0.6799    EURAUD 1.4707 - 1.5074
Tuesday 11th July 1:00pm(NZT)

The Australian dollar has been losing ground to a resurgent Euro over the past few weeks. It’s been a messy sort of decline but the trend remains intact for the time being. It would take a move above 0.6705 to bring the downtrend into question. If that level was overcome the focus would turn to 0.6760. On the downside there is minor support around 0.6635 and then again at 0.6570.

  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
AUD/EURO 0.6673 0.6570 0.6760 0.6634 - 0.6754
EURO/AUD 1.4985 1.4793 1.5221 1.4807 - 1.5074

Friday 7th July 4:30pm(NZT)
The Australian dollar has weakened vs the Euro. Now at 0.6645 after the RBA no change statement, support at 0.6600 may be tested next week.
The current interbank midrate is:    AUDEUR 0.6644    EURAUD 1.5051

The interbank range this week has been:    AUDEUR 0.6634 - 0.6754    EURAUD 1.4807 - 1.5074
Tuesday 4th July 4:30pm(NZT)

The AUD continues to make ground on this cross, is now around 0.6751 and is gradually grinding higher, providing no RBA surprises today , look for a move towards the 0.6800+ level over the week.

  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
AUD/EURO 0.6735 0.6700 0.6900 0.6668 - 0.6810
EURO/AUD 1.4848 1.4493 1.4925 1.4683 - 1.4996

Friday 30th June 3:30pm(NZT)
An up/down week for this cross with the AUD now at 0.6733 Euro after 0.6812-0.6668 range over the week. We look for the AUD to track back over 0.6850 next week.
The current interbank midrate is:    AUDEUR 0.6725    EURAUD 1.4869

The interbank range this week has been:    AUDEUR 0.6668 - 0.6810    EURAUD 1.4683 - 1.4966
Tuesday 27th June 4:00pm(NZT)

Choppy trading on this pair, has come from 0.6838 last week to 0.6787 currently , looks to be slightly on the back foot against the EUR, but look for a move back towards 0.6810/20 over the coming few days.

  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
AUD/EURO 0.6785 0.6740 0.6900 0.6750 - 0.6836
EURO/AUD 1.4739 1.4493 1.4837 1.4629 - 1.4815

Tuesday 20th June 3:30pm(NZT)

Now at 0.6803 the Australian dollar looks on-course to push to 0.6850 Euro later in the week as the EUR marks time. The better Aussie data has provided good AUD rally since the beginning of June and it should continue to support in the near term.

  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
AUD/EURO 0.6803 0.6700 0.6900 0.6713 - 0.6821
EURO/AUD 1.4699 1.4493 1.4925 1.4661 - 1.4896

Friday 16th June 8:45pm(NZT)
Solid gains for the AUD on this cross now at 0.6814 up from 0.6708 at the start of the week..next stop looks to be 0.6900 last seen a over a month ago...
The current interbank midrate is:    AUDEUR 0.6804    EURAUD 1.4697

The interbank range this week has been:    AUDEUR 0.6708 - 0.6816    EURAUD 1.4671 - 1.4908
Tuesday 13th June 4:00pm(NZT)

The Australian dollar continues to remain strong on this cross, now at 0.6755 with immediate resistance at 0.6770. That level may well be seen after Thursday’s FOMC is out of the way.

  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
AUD/EURO 0.6751 0.6700 0.6770 0.6625 - 0.6755
EURO/AUD 1.4812 1.4771 1.4925 1.4804 - 1.5095

Thursday 8th June 4:00pm(NZT)
The AUD has strengthened on this cross, now at 0.6702 and if the ECB is unchanged tonight a move towards 0.6750 is likely heading into next week.
The current interbank midrate is:    AUDEUR 0.6699    EURAUD 1.4928

The interbank range this week has been:    AUDEUR 0.6570 - 0.6745    EURAUD 1.4827 - 1.5220
Tuesday 6th June 4:00pm(NZT)

Now at 0.6622 after a low of 0.6572 last Friday, poor Aussie data will undermine AUD rallies but Thursday’s ECB meeting is a market mover….a maintenance of the status quo by the ECB will help the AUD but tomorrow’s Aussie GDP if poor will hamstring further AUD advances.

  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
AUD/EURO 0.6624 0.6540 0.6700 0.6567 - 0.6698
EURO/AUD 1.5096 1.4925 1.5291 1.4930 - 1.5227

Friday 2nd June 4:45pm(NZT)
The Australian dollar is weaker against the Euro, now at 06585 down from 0.6693 earlier in the week. EUR is favoured on this cross and a move back to 0.6540 looks likely next week.
The current interbank midrate is:    AUDEUR 0.6583    EURAUD 1.5191

The interbank range this week has been:    AUDEUR 0.6567 - 0.6698    EURAUD 1.4930 - 1.5227
Tuesday 30th May 4:15pm(NZT)

This pair continues in directionless trading, now around 0.6671. The broad Australian dollar downtrend remains intact but the market will need an “event’ to break out of current rages. US data this week may help, but an Aussie downgrade or rate cut would have more effect on this cross, neither of which are likely in the short term.

  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
AUD/EURO 0.6671 0.6635 0.6770 0.6618 - 0.6696
EURO/AUD 1.4990 1.4771 1.5071 1.4934 - 1.5109

Friday 26th May 12:45pm(NZT)
The Australian dollar has been range bound against the Euro for much of this week between the parameters of 0.6635 and 0.6700 (1.5072 and 1.4920). At this stage the risks are that the broader downtrend that’s been in place since mid-April is still dominant and an eventual break below 0.6635 will be seen. This would move the target to support around the 0.6520 area. If resistance around the 0.6700/10 area can be overcome then a significant correction higher may well unfold, but at this stage that seems unlikely.
The current interbank midrate is:    AUDEUR 0.6649    EURAUD 1.5040

The interbank range this week has been:    AUDEUR 0.6637 - 0.6696    EURAUD 1.4934 - 1.5067
Tuesday 23rd May 4:15pm(NZT)

Back at 0.6662 and marking time, the increased risk tone favours the AUD being balanced by the better Eurozone data. Unlikely to break support in the current risk-on climate but Eurozone fundamentals should carry the day in the longer term.

  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
AUD/EURO 0.6657 0.6625 0.6770 0.6634 - 0.6756
EURO/AUD 1.5022 1.4771 1.5094 1.4802 - 1.4802

Friday 19th May 4:15pm(NZT)
The Australian dollar has weakened on the EUR over the week. It is now back at 0.6683 after a low of 0.6634. We expect a test of this low next week with next stop at 0.6625 and with more positive Eurozone data this is not far away.
The current interbank midrate is:    AUDEUR 0.6685    EURAUD 1.4960

The interbank range this week has been:    AUDEUR 0.6634 - 0.6815    EURAUD 1.4674 - 1.5074
Tuesday 16th May 4:15pm(NZT)

The AUD has drifted back to 0.6747 on this cross, but really no clear direction. The improving Eurozone data will keep the Australian dollar under pressure but 0.6721 should provide support for the moment. The risk is to AUD downside.

  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
AUD/EURO 0.6740 0.6685 0.6825 0.6721 - 0.6815
EURO/AUD 1.4837 1.4652 1.4958 1.4674 - 1.4879

Friday 12th May 4:15pm(NZT)
Some recovery in the Australian dollar on this cross over the last few days, now at 0.6786 Euro after a low of 0.6720 earlier in the week. There is a lack of clear direction but resistance at 0.6825 may prove tough for the Aussie unless more positive data flows occur next week.
The current interbank midrate is:    AUDEUR 0.6783    EURAUD 1.4742

The interbank range this week has been:    AUDEUR 0.6707 - 0.6804    EURAUD 1.4698 - 1.4910
Tuesday 9th May 8:15pm(NZT)

The Australian dollar has continued its downward path on this cross, now at 0.6733 after being at 0.6902 last Wednesday. It should consolidate at current levels given little news from Europe over the next few days, but Aussie fundamentals remain unsupportive for this cross.

  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
AUD/EURO 0.6729 0.6685 0.6750 0.6707 - 0.6923
EURO/AUD 1.4861 1.4814 1.4958 1.4445 - 1.4910

Friday 5th May 3:45pm(NZT)
The Australian dollar weakened over the week from 0.6924 to current levels around 0.6736 on the back of soft commodity prices and weak Chinese data. Improving Eurozone fundamentals also boosted the EUR. This weekend’s French election is an obvious risk event, but that aside we look for the Aussie to strengthen on this cross over the coming week.
The current interbank midrate is:    AUDEUR 0.6724    EURAUD 1.4873

The interbank range this week has been:    AUDEUR 0.6730 - 0.6923    EURAUD 1.4445 - 1.4859
Tuesday 2nd May 7:15pm(NZT)
The Australian dollar had traded in a narrow 0.6969-0.6826 range against the Euro over the week. It is now back at 0.6908, but with better economic data and a win for Macron in the French elections the EUR should be favoured on this cross.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
AUD/EURO 0.6909 0.6800 0.6980 0.6826 - 0.6958
EURO/AUD 1.4474 1.4326 1.4706 1.4373 - 1.4650

Friday 21st April 11:40am(NZT)
The Euro has had a surprisingly good week against the Australian dollar considering all the uncertainty and risks around this weekend’s first round of voting in the French election. Improvements in Eurozone data over recent weeks is certainly helping to support the EUR, and it will be interesting to see what the ECB have to say at their meeting next week. On the AUD side of the equation we have seen declining commodity prices pressure the currency and it’s now given back all the gains it made in the wake of last week’s super strong employment data. With French voting this weekend, any prediction on the near term direction for the EUR is fraught with danger. If Le Pen makes it through to the second round carrying some real momentum, the EUR should suffer. If the more moderate Macron comes out well on top from this first round the EUR may make further gains.
The current interbank midrate is:    AUDEUR 0.7020    EURAUD 1.4248

The interbank range this week has been:    AUDEUR 0.6976 - 0.7151    EURAUD 1.3984 - 1.4334
Tuesday 18th April 7:15pm(NZT)
There has been a lot of back and forth price action in this pair over recent weeks, but little overall direction. In fact for the past month the majority of price action has been contained between the broad parameters of 0.7000 and 0.7200.  We see this continuing over the coming week, with the risks skewed toward the top of that range as political uncertainty in France weighs on the Euro. A strong Australian employment result last week should also add some underlying support to the Australian dollar and keep the focus on a test of 0.7200.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
AUD/EURO 0.7100 0.6990 0.7200 0.7034 - 0.7151
EURO/AUD 1.4085 1.3889 1.4306 1.3984 - 1.4217

Tuesday 11th April 4:15pm(NZT)
Now trading sideways , currently at 0.7091 and given Australian data continues to be soft we favour a test of 0.7050 over the next few days. If Aussie jobs data on Thursday is weak 0.6990 maybe threatened.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
AUD/EURO 0.7082 0.6990 0.7150 0.7052 - 0.7129
EURO/AUD 1.4121 1.3886 1.4306 1.4027 - 1.4179

Friday 7th April 5:50pm(NZT)
No respite from AUD weakness on this cross with the Australian dollar now at 0.7072 Euro. Look for a move to 0.7050 then 0.6990 out into next week as last night's ECB comments failed to dent the EUR on this cross.
The current interbank midrate is:    AUDEUR 0.7071    EURAUD 1.4141

The interbank range this week has been:    AUDEUR 0.7052 - 0.7173    EURAUD 1.3941 - 1.4179
Tuesday 4th April 7:15pm(NZT)
Currently sitting around 0.7130, drifting lower from the 0.7174 seen on Friday no large moves expected on this cross ahead of the US jobs data. Euro fundamentals are favoured over those of Australian dollar , but as always political considerations continue to hamper the EUR.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
AUD/EURO 0.7125 0.6990 0.7210 0.6990 - 0.7173
EURO/AUD 1.4035 1.3870 1.4306 1.3941 - 1.4307

Friday 31st March 1:00pm(NZT)
It really has been a week of two halves for the AUDEUR. Euro strength in the first part of the week saw a consistent slide in the pair to a low of 0.6989. But since then the traffic has all been the other way as the EUR has lost all of that ground and the pair now trades around 0.7160 and close to the week's highs. With little in the way of fundamental data from Australia this week, it has been movements in the EUR which have driven the pair. Next week however we get some domestic releases to focus on with Australian retails sales, the trade balance and the RBA rate meeting all scheduled to hit the wires. Look for a test toward initial resistance just above 0.7200 over the coming days.
The current interbank midrate is:    AUDEUR 0.7152    EURAUD 1.3982

The interbank range this week has been:    AUDEUR 0.6989 - 0.7168    EURAUD 1.3951 - 1.4308
Tuesday 28th March 4:15pm(NZT)
The Australian dollar is lower on this cross on continued better Eurozone data. Now trading at 0.7025 after a 0.7114 high on Friday. Political risks in France will limit any large gains. Support at 0.6930 should hold over the next few days.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
AUD/EURO 0.7021 0.6940 0.7120 0.6989 - 0.7169
EURO/AUD 1.4242 1.4045 1.4409 1.3949 - 1.4308

Friday 24th March 3:00pm(NZT)
The EUR has gained against the Australian dollar on more positive Eurozone data. It is now at 0.7077 and looks to be heading lower to test support at 0.7050 over the day. Any move below that support level would be a bearish signal and open the way for further significant losses.
The current interbank midrate is:    AUDEUR 0.7089    EURAUD 1.4105

The interbank range this week has been:    AUDEUR 0.7069 - 0.7207    EURAUD 1.3875 - 1.4147
Tuesday 21st March 4:15pm(NZT)
After the Australian dollar turnaround against the Euro over the last few days it has moved from 0.7115 at the close of last week to its current level at 0.7209. A push onto 0.7283 now looks possible. Political concerns in Europe should keep the Euro on the back foot.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
AUD/EURO 0.7165 0.7160 0.7283 0.7087 - 0.7207
EURO/AUD 1.3956 1.3730 1.3966 1.3875 - 1.4110

Friday 17th March 4:00pm(NZT)
Choppy trading on this cross with movement from 0.7050 -0.7205 over the week. It is currently at 0.7121 as Euro news has been more positive over the last few days. We expect trading at current levels to flow into next week but the weaker Australian fundamentals favour the EUR on this cross. Look for a test of 0.7080.
The current interbank midrate is:    AUDEUR 0.7119    EURAUD 1.4046

The interbank range this week has been:    AUDEUR 0.7051 - 0.7203    EURAUD 1.3882 - 1.4183
Tuesday 14th March 3:45pm(NZT)
The Australian dollar is now trading at 0.7095 against the Euro with little clear trend. Overall the AUD has been weakening on this cross, down from a 0.7208 high last week, but given the political ructions in the Eurozone,  a firmer AUD tone may prevail over the week.  
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
AUD/EURO 0.7095 0.7075 0.7215 0.7051 - 0.7206
EURO/AUD 1.4094 1.3860 1.4134 1.3877 - 1.4183

Friday 10th March 4:00pm(NZT)
The weaker Australian dollar trend continues on this cross as better Eurozone data outweighs political risk for the region. After a high of 0.7208 early this week this cross is now at 0.7104 with next support level around 0.7040. We don’t expect this support level to be seen ahead of next week's FOMC meeting and a strong NFP tonight will potentially hit the EUR harder than the AUD.
The current interbank midrate is:    AUDEUR 0.7100    EURAUD 1.4083

The interbank range this week has been:    AUDEUR 0.7083 - 0.7206    EURAUD 1.3877 - 1.4118
Tuesday 7th March 3:45pm(NZT)
The Australian dollar continues remains soft against the EUR, dropping from a high of 0.7283 (1.3729) to its current level around 0.7181 (1.3925). A positive RBA statement today may help the AUD trade back to the 0.7200 zone.   
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
AUD/EURO 0.7174 0.7135 0.7275 0.7136 - 0.7282
EURO/AUD 1.3940 1.3745 1.4014 1.3732 - 1.4014

Friday 3rd March 4:15pm(NZT)
The Australian dollar continues its weaker trend against the EUR now at 0.7184 (1.3920) with a test of support at 0.7150 (1.3986) likely, Eurozone political worries will disrupt, but the trend looks to have turned negative on this cross for the AUD.
The current interbank midrate is:    AUDEUR 0.7179    EURAUD 1.3929

The interbank range this week has been:    AUDEUR 0.7174 - 0.7294    EURAUD 1.3710 - 1.3939
Tuesday 28th February 7:45pm(NZT)
The Australian dollar has weakened against the EUR over the last few days, currently at 0.7257 (1.3778) after a high of 0.7320 (1.3661) 5 days ago. Its too early to call a change of trend and given the ongoing Eurozone political issues we continue to favour the AUD on this cross for the time being.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
AUD/EURO 0.7256 0.6998 0.7275 0.7229 - 0.7338
EURO/AUD 1.3782 1.3745 1.4288 1.3628 - 1.3833

Friday 24th February 2:45pm(NZT)
The Australian dollar traded to a fresh cycle high of 0.7339 (1.3626) against the Euro on Wednesday. The Euro has been under pressure across the board this week as looming French elections look to be a very close call. The far right anti-euro candidate, Marine Le Pen, is well in the mix and with huge swaths of disheartened middle and lower income voters delivering shock results in both the US and the UK over the past 8 months, it would be foolish to think France will be any different. Europe faces a number of hurdles this year with elections in Italy and Germany also able to throw a spanner in the works. We continue to suspect any periods of relative Euro strength will quickly run into sellers. Yesterday’s disappointing Australian Capex data has seen the pair consolidate below the week's high, but it would be premature to suggest the uptrend is over. For now the risks remain skewed toward further gains.
The current interbank midrate is:    AUDEUR 0.7282    EURAUD 1.3732

The interbank range this week has been:    AUDEUR 0.7193 - 0.7338    EURAUD 1.3628 - 1.3902
Tuesday 21st February 6:45pm(NZT)
Choppy price movement but in a small range for the Australian dollar vs the Euro. It’s now at 0.7251 after being down at 0.7194. Immediate resistance is at 0.7285 and given the more stable Aussie outlook we favour a test of this level over the rest of the week.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
AUD/EURO 0.7247 0.6998 0.7285 0.7193 - 0.7285
EURO/AUD 1.3798 1.3726 1.4288 1.3727 - 1.3902

Friday 17th February 4:30pm(NZT)
Currently around 0.7223 (1.3736) the Australian dollar continues its gradual grind higher against the Euro. It has had a couple of setbacks this week dropping to a low of 0.7200 (1.3889) from the week high of 0.7286 (1.3724). Notwithstanding the small retracements this week, the AUD is still favoured on this cross and we look for a retest of the 0.7280 level next week.
The current interbank midrate is:    AUDEUR 0.7213    EURAUD 1.3863

The interbank range this week has been:    AUDEUR 0.7164 - 0.7285    EURAUD 1.3727 - 1.3958
Tuesday 14th February 4:45pm(NZT)
Now trading around 0.7235 (1.3820) the Australian dollar is still grinding higher against the Euro, up from the 0.7153 (1.3980) level seen only 4 days ago. Not surprising given the better economic data now emerging from Aussie. Given the political uncertainty increasing weekly as French elections creep closer and Greek problems re-emerging we look for the EUR to remain under pressure.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
AUD/EURO 0.7236 0.6998 0.7312 0.7130 - 0.7224
EURO/AUD 1.3820 1.3676 1.4288 1.3842 - 1.4026

Friday 10th February 6:30pm(NZT)
Continues in a narrow range but the trend remains Australian dollar positive. Currently at 0.7168 (1.3950), but with more political nervousness coming out of the Eurozone, especially around the French elections, look for a move  towards 0.7310 (1.3679) over the next week or so.
The current interbank midrate is:    AUDEUR 0.7176    EURAUD 1.3935

The interbank range this week has been:    AUDEUR 0.7099 - 0.7177    EURAUD 1.3934 - 1.4087
Tuesday 7th February 4:45pm(NZT)
Has moved in a sideways pattern but the trend favours the Australian dollar especially given the weaker Euro over the last few days and news from the Eurozone. Currently around 0.7137 (1.4010) and we look for a range of 0.6951- 0.7170 (1.4385 - 1.3947) to hold over the week.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
AUD/EURO 0.7129 0.7100 0.7170 0.6998 - 0.7140
EURO/AUD 1.4026 1.3947 1.4084 1.4005 - 1.4290

Friday 3rd February 4:30pm(NZT)
The Australian dollar has moved towards the top of the existing range against the Euro at 0.7124 (1.4036) and is now at 0.7106 (1.4071). No threat to the 0.7000 (1.4285) support level now and a break on the upside for the AUD looks more likely on this cross.
The current interbank midrate is:    AUDEUR 0.7105    EURAUD 1.4074

The interbank range this week has been:    AUDEUR 0.6998 - 0.7121    EURAUD 1.4042 - 1.4290
Tuesday 31st January 4:45pm(NZT)
The Australian dollar has retraced some its losses over the last few days coming from 0.7005 (1.4274) last week to 0.7076 (1.4131) , the 0.7000 support level is now well protected , with this cross now looking to be in a sideways pattern for the next few days. Any further upticks on Eurozone inflation would pressure the AUD vs the Euro
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
AUD/EURO 0.7073 0.7005 0.7100 0.7007 - 0.7093
EURO/AUD 1.4137 1.4084 1.4275 1.4099 - 1.4272

Friday 27th January 3:30pm(NZT)
This cross is now at 0.7055 (1.4174) mostly on the back of the softer Australian dollar, a push to 0.7000 looks likely next week which if broken would target 0.6960/70, (1.4367) however the overall EUR bear trend that has been inforce for the last 6 mths remains.
The current interbank midrate is:    AUDEUR 0.7054    EURAUD 1.4177

The interbank range this week has been:    AUDEUR 0.7007 - 0.7098    EURAUD 1.4089 - 1.4272
Tuesday 24th January 6:15pm(NZT)
Now sitting at 0.7047 (1.4191) after ranging between a narrow 0.7030-0.7069 (1.42224-1.4146) overnight, the EUR has staged a comeback over the last 3 days as the AUD has weakened back from 0.7105 (1.4075) , has potential to dip towards the 0.6968 region over the next few days especially if there is more news on increasing Eurozone inflation , but with base commodity prices remaining firm the AUD should hold above the 0.6950 (1.4388) level over the next few days.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
AUD/EURO 0.7044 0.6950 0.7105 0.7032 - 0.7128
EURO/AUD 1.4196 1.4075 1.4388 1.4030 - 1.4221

Friday 20th January 1:30pm(NZT)
The Euro has been consistently outperformed by the Australian dollar this week with the cross rate trending higher. Economic data from Australia has helped underpin the AUD, while last night’s ECB meeting further pressured the EUR. ECB President Draghi’s comments that he’s not at all concerned about increases in inflation, and that monetary policy will remain very accommodative over the coming months, weighed on the single currency. This helped drive the pair to the highest level in more than a year at 0.7128 (1.4029). The risks remain skewed to further tests of the topside. Downside support comes in around 0.7030 (resistance 1.4225) and I would expect that to contain any potential periods of weakness over the coming days.
The current interbank midrate is:    AUDEUR 0.7094    EURAUD 1.4096

The interbank range this week has been:    AUDEUR 0.7016 - 0.7128    EURAUD 1.4030 - 1.4254
Tuesday 17th January 2:15pm(NZT)
The Australian dollar has remained largely range bound against the Euro, albeit at elevated levels relative to where it was back in December. The 2016 high around 0.7105 (1.4075) is within sight and may well be tested later this week if Australian employment data come in on the strong side. From Europe there is a raft of second tier releases ahead of Thursday night’s ECB rate meeting.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
AUD/EURO 0.7045 0.6990 0.7105 0.6931 - 0.7075
EURO/AUD 1.4194 1.4075 1.4306 1.4135 - 1.4428

Friday 13th January 6:30pm(NZT)
The AUD continues to push higher on this cross over the week and currently sits at 0.7064 (1.4156) with a target of the December high at 0.7097 (1.4090) , we expect a flat close for this cross for the week but look for 0.7097 to be taken out early next week.
The current interbank midrate is:    AUDEUR 0.7061    EURAUD 1.4162

The interbank range this week has been:    AUDEUR 0.6910 - 0.7062    EURAUD 1.4160 - 1.4471
Tuesday 10th January 4:00pm(NZT)
The Australian dollar traded a narrow 0.6934-0.6963 (1.4424-1.4362) range overnight and is currently around 0.6941 (1.4407). The market is lacking and real near term direction but given the AUD supportive metal prices we expect the EUR to remain under pressure against the AUD.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
AUD/EURO 0.6952 0.6850 0.6995 0.6872 - 0.6980
EURO/AUD 1.4384 1.4295 1.4598 1.4327 - 1.4553

Friday 23rd December 3:45am(NZT)
The Australian dollar has continued to decline in trade against the Euro since Tuesday. Momentum and lower iron ore prices have weighed on recent trade in the AUD. Risk currencies like the AUD have also borne much of the brunt of the recent US dollar strength. Focus over the holiday period will be on liquidity issues and changes in sentiment towards the EUR and AUD drivers. Data of note starts with European PMI indicators in the first week of 2017. Momentum remains weak at present and sellers could target near .7000 (1.4286) to purchase the EUR.
The current interbank midrate is:    AUDEUR 0.6905    EURAUD 1.4483

The interbank range this week has been:    AUDEUR 0.6880 - 0.7063    EURAUD 1.4159 - 1.4535
Tuesday 20th December 1:30pm(NZT)
The Australian dollar has fallen notably against the Euro in trade since Friday. The move comes as investors have moved to reduce exposures to the risk currencies this week (amidst rising geopolitical concerns) and as key $AUD sensitive commodities feel the pressure from a strong greenback (and in the case of iron ore rising Chinese stockpiles also). Scheduled focus for this week will mainly be on today’s RBA minutes which look most likely to pass with minimal fuss. Expect sentiment to therefore dictate which has us favouring the EUR over the AUD.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
AUD/EURO 0.6970 0.6900 0.7000 0.6943 - 0.7096
EURO/AUD 1.4347 1.4286 1.4493 1.4092 - 1.4402

Friday 16th December 11:45am(NZT)
The Australian dollar has lifted moderately in trade against the Euro since our commentary on Tuesday. Gains this week were limited to just ahead of resistance at .7100 (1.4085 support) in trade overnight. Both currencies have seen decent falls against the US dollar during the week, especially after yesterday’s US FOMC meeting. Positive Australian employment data may have gone a little way towards the Australian dollar’s small outperformance. Focus for next week is missing, although Tuesday’s RBA minutes may cause some interest. Direction looks to be lacking at present.
The current interbank midrate is:    AUDEUR 0.7063    EURAUD 1.4158

The interbank range this week has been:    AUDEUR 0.7017 - 0.7096    EURAUD 1.4092 - 1.4251
Tuesday 13th December 2:30pm(NZT)
The Australian dollar has posted moderate additional gains against the Euro since our last report on Friday. There has been little to go on as far as fresh leads since Friday, although the commodity currencies have fared well after the recent gains in the price of oil. Bigger picture momentum remains supportive for the AUD, although in the short term gains above .7100 (1.4085) may be difficult and first notable support is distant. Look to Australian employment numbers on Thursday for influence and for a potential pick-up in volatility over the earlier FOMC announcement.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
AUD/EURO 0.7042 0.6900 0.7100 0.6896 - 0.7081
EURO/AUD 1.4200 1.4085 1.4493 1.4122 - 1.4501

Friday 9th December 11:15am(NZT)
The Australian dollar has moved sharply higher in trade against the Euro since our commentary on Tuesday. The move occurred after the market digested the ECB monetary policy announcement which saw the EUR plunge in trade overnight. Support around the .6900 (1.4493 resistance) level held the initial shift after the EUR first spiked during the announcement. Resistance levels to watch for next week are at .7075 (1.4134 support) and then around .7100 (1.4085 support). Australian employment data (on Thursday) is the key economic indicator to watch next week for this cross.
The current interbank midrate is:    AUDEUR 0.7027    EURAUD 1.4231

The interbank range this week has been:    AUDEUR 0.6896 - 0.7067    EURAUD 1.4150 - 1.4501
Tuesday 6th December 2:30pm(NZT)
The Australian dollar has eased overall in trade against the Euro since Thursday, although not before a major rally yesterday on the back of the 20 month lows which were seen in the EUR/USD after the Italian referendum result. Highs around .7065 (1.4154 lows) traded prior to last night’s sharp reversal in the EUR/USD which saw the cross move to subsequent lows near .6925 (1.4440 highs). This week is set to be a busy one given the respective central bank monetary policy meetings (RBA today, ECB on Thursday) and Australian GDP data tomorrow.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
AUD/EURO 0.6941 0.6900 0.7075 0.6927 - 0.7067
EURO/AUD 1.4407 1.4134 1.4493 1.4150 - 1.4435

Thursday 1st December 2:00pm(NZT)
The Australian dollar has fallen in trade against the Euro since our report on Tuesday. Most of the falls have come in recent hours on the back of the poor performance of the AUD which appears to be suffering from negative sentiment following the weak building/housing data this week. Look to AUD sentiment and moves in the AUD/USD for direction into the end of the weak. Australian data of interest includes CAPEX data this afternoon and data from the retail sector tomorrow. Current momentum is negative and targets .6900 (1.4493).
The current interbank midrate is:    AUDEUR 0.6970    EURAUD 1.4348

The interbank range this week has been:    AUDEUR 0.6957 - 0.7073    EURAUD 1.4138 - 1.4373
Tuesday 29th November 3:30pm(NZT)
The Australian dollar has lifted moderately in trade against the Euro since our report on Friday. Much of the move reflects the increased appetite for the AUD (partly helped by commodity currency appeal overnight), although yesterday’s reversal (lower) in the Euro has also contributed. Momentum for the cross is AUD positive at the moment, although much will depend on the outcome of the OPEC oil producer meeting result later in the week which looks likely to drive the commodity currencies in the days after.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
AUD/EURO 0.7058 0.6980 0.7100 0.6937 - 0.7073
EURO/AUD 1.4169 1.4085 1.4327 1.4138 - 1.4416

Friday 25th November 2:30pm(NZT)
The Australian dollar has rallied against the Euro since our report on Tuesday. The move comes on the back of the recovery in the AUD/USD exchange rate and continued weakness in the EUR. Data has played little part in trade this week and is likely to have a relatively minor influence again next week. Momentum has shifted to the AUD upside again for the time being, although much will likely come down to whether the AUD/USD can continue to appreciate. First resistance to this move is around .7100 (1.4085 support).
The current interbank midrate is:    AUDEUR 0.7020    EURAUD 1.4244

The interbank range this week has been:    AUDEUR 0.6902 - 0.7023    EURAUD 1.4238 - 1.4488
Tuesday 22nd November 2:30pm(NZT)
The Australian dollar has continued to ease in trade against the Euro since our last report. The move reflects the underperformance of the AUD in the environment of a stronger US dollar as talk of M&A selling weighs on the AUD. Sentiment, commodity prices and transactional flow look likely to again set direction for the cross this week given the lack of key data from either region. Initial weak support lies at .6900 (1.4493 resistance). We lack a bias although AUD momentum remains soft at present.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
AUD/EURO 0.6933 0.6725 0.7000 0.6902 - 0.7052
EURO/AUD 1.4423 1.4286 1.4870 1.4181 - 1.4488

Friday 18th November 2:30pm(NZT)
The Australian dollar has eased in trade against the Euro since our report on Tuesday. The move reflects the relative underperformance of the AUD which has managed to outpace the EUR (which itself hit fresh 2016 lows) in its falls against the stronger US dollar this week. Weakening key commodity prices and a dim view of yesterday’s Australian employment data have helped drag on AUD sentiment. We have little view heading into next week, although for now the momentum is mildly bearish. Initial resistance now looks to be in the .7000/10 area (1.4286/1.4265 support).
The current interbank midrate is:    AUDEUR 0.6976    EURAUD 1.4334

The interbank range this week has been:    AUDEUR 0.6930 - 0.7052    EURAUD 1.4181 - 1.4430
Tuesday 15th November 2:00pm(NZT)
The Australian dollar has rallied in trade against the Euro since our commentary on Friday. The move reflects the recent outperformance of the AUD in the environment of a stronger greenback and come as the market looks to the relative divergence between the fiscal and monetary stances of the ECB and US Fed (EUR/USD negative). Data/event focus this week starts with the RBA minutes today. Australian employment data will feature on Thursday. We have little immediate bias, although feel levels towards last week’s AUD highs would offer appealing short term EUR entries.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
AUD/EURO 0.7042 0.6725 0.7100 0.6721 - 0.7105
EURO/AUD 1.4201 1.4085 1.4870 1.4075 - 1.4879

Friday 11th November 2:30pm(NZT)
The Australian dollar is trading almost unchanged in present trade against the Euro since our commentary Tuesday. The moves in the interim have been considerable however and included a plunge to around .6725 (1.4870) as the market sold the risk currencies (like the AUD and NZD) heavily in favour of safety currencies like the Euro on Wednesday as it became apparent that Trump would win the US presidential election. Restoring market confidence and a strong rally in the AUD/USD exchange rate overnight has seen the cross rally to .7100 (1.4085) in trade overnight. Expect less volatility next week. We have a moderate upside bias although buyers can be patient given the large swings.
The current interbank midrate is:    AUDEUR 0.6968    EURAUD 1.4352

The interbank range this week has been:    AUDEUR 0.6721 - 0.7105    EURAUD 1.4075 - 1.4879
Tuesday 8th November 2:30pm(NZT)
The Australian dollar has rallied strongly against the Euro since our report on Thursday. The move reflects the strength seen in the AUD which has benefitted in trade overnight from flow into the ‘risk based’ currencies in anticipation of a Clinton victory in the US election tomorrow. This theme looks set to dictate the direction of moves in this cross given the lack of key data due from either country this week. Expect considerable volatility over the next 36 hours.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
AUD/EURO 0.6981 0.6870 0.7075 0.6874 - 0.7001
EURO/AUD 1.4324 1.4134 1.4556 1.4284 - 1.4548

Thursday 3rd November 3:00pm(NZT)
The Australian dollar has fallen further in trade against the Euro since our commentary on Tuesday. The move reflects the relative outperformance of the EUR during a week of USD underperformance as local economic and central bank leads (RBA) failed to drive any sustained move in either direction. This theme looks likely to dictate trade into the end of the week although tomorrow’s RBA monetary policy statement (MPS) and Australian retail sales (less so) could drive a move. First support against the current downswing is now around .6880 (1.4535).
The current interbank midrate is:    AUDEUR 0.6896    EURAUD 1.6076

The interbank range this week has been:    AUDEUR 0.6881 - 0.7015    EURAUD 1.4255 - 1.4533
Tuesday 1st November 1:30pm(NZT)
The Australian dollar has continued to ease in trade against the Euro since our report on Friday. The move reflects the outperformance of the EUR over the AUD during the recent correction (lower) in the greenback. The RBA today forms the key focus (cash rate decision today, MPS on Friday) for the cross, although the relative performance of the two currencies over the key US events (FOMC on Wednesday and US employment on Friday) could also be a factor. We continue to lack a strong bias on this cross for now.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
AUD/EURO .6934 .6900 .7075 .6901 - .7077
EURO/AUD 1.4422 1.4134 1.4493 1.4130 - 1.4491

Friday 28th October 3:00pm(NZT)
The Australian dollar has eased in trade against the Euro since our commentary on Friday, although not before fresh 2016 highs around .7075 (1.4134 lows) traded after Wednesday’s better than expected Australian (headline) inflation data. The sharp reversal in the AUD as focus turned to the (softer) underlying data and stronger USD has seen the cross retrace sharply in more recent trade. Support is eyed at .6930 (1.4430 resistance) ahead of next Tuesday’s important RBA meeting. We lack any conviction on this cross at present.
The current interbank midrate is:    AUDEUR 0.6964    EURAUD 1.4360

The interbank range this week has been:    AUDEUR 0.6948 - 0.7075    EURAUD 1.4134 - 1.4392
Tuesday 25th October 3:00pm(NZT)
The Australian dollar is little changed in trade against the Euro since our report on Friday. There has been no key news to influence either currency in the interim which has left both to drift lower on the back of continued USD strength. Key to the cross this week is tomorrow’s Australian inflation report which looks likely to have a significant bearing on Australian interest rate expectations. We have little bias ahead of this key data release, although the medium-term trend is for higher levels.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
AUD/EURO 0.6984 0.6930 0.7000 0.6932 - 0.7050
EURO/AUD 1.4319 1.4184 1.4430 1.4184 - 1.4426

Friday 23rd October 2:30pm(NZT)
The Australian dollar has again moved higher in trade against the Euro since our commentary on Thursday. The move reflects the relative performance of the EUR which has edged lower again this week, especially after the dovish market assessment of the ECB commentary overnight. In focus next week will be various second tier European data reads, although Australia’s inflation report on Wednesday has the greatest chance of impacting the cross. We are unsure of the next move from here. First resistance is seen at .7050 (1.4184 support) whilst support is seen at .6880 (1.4535 resistance).
The current interbank midrate is:    AUDEUR 0.6980    EURAUD 1.6067

The interbank range this week has been:    AUDEUR 0.6843 - 0.7050    EURAUD 1.4184 - 1.4613
Tuesday 18th October 3:00pm(NZT)
The Australian dollar has lifted in trade against the Euro since our report on Friday. The move reflects the underperformance of the EUR relative to the outperformance of the commodity currencies in the strong USD environment. In focus this week is today’s RBA minutes although Thursday will be the most pivotal day with both the Australian employment data and ECB meeting due. We lack a bias for this pair at current levels, although a break of the recent highs looks likely to bode well for further AUD gains in time.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
AUD/EURO 0.6942 0.6880 0.6960 0.6779 - 0.6956
EURO/AUD 1.4406 1.4368 1.4535 1.4375 - 1.4752

Friday 14th October 2:00pm(NZT)
The Australian dollar has eased in trade against the Euro since our report on Tuesday. There has been little in the way of key data from either region to influence the cross this week, although both currencies have suffered against a stronger USD. This has seen the AUD underperform given its relatively higher yield appeal as investors look to an increasing chance of a US rate hike this year. Items of interest next week include the RBA minutes (Tuesday) and employment report (Thursday) in Australia and the ECB meeting (also on Thursday). We lack any real bias for next week although note overhead resistance forming at .6880 (1.4535 support).
The current interbank midrate is:    AUDEUR .6847    EURAUD 1.4605

The interbank range this week has been:    AUDEUR .6765 - .6880    EURAUD 1.4535 - 1.4782
Tuesday 11th October 2:00pm(NZT)
The Australian dollar has edged higher in trade against the Euro since Friday. There has been little to go on for either pair in the interim so the small lift reflects the minor relative outperformance of the AUD in an environment of a strengthening USD. Economic data looks lean this week which has us favouring a shifty, but rangy week overall, largely within last week’s ranges.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
AUD/EURO .6878 .6750 .6880 .6765 - .6878
EURO/AUD 1.4657 1.4535 1.4815 1.4539 - 1.4782

Friday 7th October 2:30pm(NZT)
The Australian dollar has fallen in trade against the Euro this week. The move comes during a week which saw the USD rally (on stronger US data) and as traders moved to reduce positions on ‘risk’/higher yielding currencies. So far support at .6765 (1.4782 resistance) has held the decline and the zone near the weekly highs .6870/.6880 (1.4556/1.4535 lows) looks to be the first target to sell AUD. Next week is light on economic data which should ensure trade within this week’s ranges; although the current weaker demand for the AUD has us favouring lower levels overall.
The current interbank midrate is:    AUDEUR .6801    EURAUD 1.4704

The interbank range this week has been:    AUDEUR .6768 - .6878    EURAUD 1.4539 - 1.4776
Tuesday 4th October 3:00pm(NZT)
The Australian dollar has lifted in trade against the Euro since Friday’s commentary. The move reflects the outperformance of the AUD which has rallied to near last week’s highs against the greenback in recent trade. The move reflects the sentiment shown towards the EUR (Brexit, banking headline weakened) versus that shown towards the commodity currencies. Look to the RBA statement this afternoon for immediate direction with particular focus on the inflation forecast based ‘implicit’ easing bias. For now the momentum points towards further AUD gains.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
AUD/EURO .6853 .6765 .6880 .6771 - .6868
EURO/AUD 1.4592 1.4535 1.4782 1.4560 - 1.4769

Friday 30th September 2:30pm(NZT)
The Australian dollar sits marginally above those levels reported in trade on Tuesday against the Euro. Initial gains that were seen for most of the week capped around .6865 (1.4567) yesterday as the AUD rallied on the back of (oil-based) support for the commodity currencies. A subsequent retracement in the AUD trade overnight has seen the cross retrace during a week where data has played no consideration. Focus next week will be on the various European PMI reads, although Tuesday’s RBA announcement looks likely to pack the most punch overall.
The current interbank midrate is:    AUDEUR 0.6798    EURAUD 1.4710

The interbank range this week has been:    AUDEUR 0.6766 - 0.6868    EURAUD 1.4560 - 1.4779
Tuesday 27th September 3:00pm(NZT)
The Australian dollar has eased in trade against the Euro since Friday. The slide can be put down to the outperformance of the EUR, in part on the back of the better than expected German IFO released overnight. Data considerations are again light for the cross this week with European inflation numbers being amongst those most likely to impact (likely low sensitivity). We lack any bias on the next move.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
AUD/EURO 0.6788 0.6735 0.6855 0.6739 - 0.6834
EURO/AUD 1.4733 1.4588 1.4848 1.4633 - 1.4839

Friday 23rd September 2:00pm(NZT)
The Australian dollar has continued to rally against the Euro this week. The move comes as the RBA minutes pointed to little need for urgency in cutting Australian rates further. This point was further underlined yesterday by RBA Governor Lowe’s talk on flexible inflation targeting which alludes to little current need to cut rates in order to address present inflation. Next week features a busy data calendar in Europe, although most indicators should create only a minimal impact. Resistance levels to watch are .6855 (1.4588 support) and the .6930/50 zone (1.4430/1.4388 support).
The current interbank midrate is:    AUDEUR 0.6816    EURAUD 1.4671

The interbank range this week has been:    AUDEUR 0.6670 - 0.6834    EURAUD 1.4633 - 1.4992
Tuesday 20th September 2:00pm(NZT)
The Australian dollar has lifted in trade against the Euro since our report on Friday. The move reflects the outperformance of the AUD as Brexit headlines again surfaced in Europe. This comes as the RBA now looks to have additional flexibility on inflation target timing which was noted after the release of the new Statement of Conduct of Monetary Policy (AUD+ given the bar to another cut could be raised). Look to the RBA minutes this afternoon for immediate influence and the US FOMC decision tomorrow (US time) for potential additional volatility.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
AUD/EURO 0.6741 0.6620 0.6855 0.6625 - 0.6772
EURO/AUD 1.4835 1.4588 1.5106 1.4768 - 1.5095

Friday 16th September 2:30pm(NZT)
The Australian dollar has eased in trade against the Euro this week. The move has reflected the relative underperformance of the risk and commodity based currencies during the week, especially earlier in the week when global share markets underwent sizeable falls. Next week on the surface at least is relatively quiet as far as scheduled European and Australian events go with the RBA minutes on Tuesday the first focus. We continue to favour selling rallies with resistance ahead of .6710 ( buying ahead of 1.4903 support) and .6740 (1.4837 support) the sell (buy) targets.
The current interbank midrate is:    AUDEUR 0.6673    EURAUD 1.4986

The interbank range this week has been:    AUDEUR 0.6625 - 0.6791    EURAUD 1.4725 - 1.5095
Tuesday 13th September 1:30pm(NZT)
The Australian dollar has fallen heavily against the Euro since our report last week. The moves reflects the more hawkish than expected commentary coming out of Thursday’s ECB press conference which was exacerbated by the flight out of risk currencies on Friday after the hawkish comments from Fed officials saw investors sell global equities and buy the USD. In focus this week is the ZEW economic sentiment survey (EUR today) and the Australian employment data on Thursday. Once again the performance of international markets should also be monitored (AUD). We marginally favour selling AUD rallies for now, although first resistance is distant.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
AUD/EURO 0.6721 06665 0.6855 0.6670 - 0.6858
EURO/AUD 1.4879 1.4588 1.5004 1.4581 - 1.4992

Thursday 8th September 2:30pm(NZT)
The Australian dollar is trading largely unchanged in trade against the Euro since our report on Tuesday. This should change later today when the ECB monetary policy announcement is made, although so far both currencies have seen similar gains on the back of the weaker than expected key US data. Relative extremes have been reasonably tight in recent hours (~.6800/.6855, 1.4706/1.4588), although stronger bounds lie around .6710 (1.4903) and .6930/50 (1.4430/1.4388). We lack a bias from here given the uncertain nature of today’s ECB policy announcement.
The current interbank midrate is:    AUDEUR 0.6827    EURAUD 1.4648

The interbank range this week has been:    AUDEUR 0.6735 - 0.6855    EURAUD 1.4587 - 1.4849
Tuesday 6th September 3:30pm(NZT)
The Australian dollar has rallied in trade against the Euro since our report on Friday. The move reflects the relative yield appeal of the AUD in the wake of Friday’s weaker than expected US employment data, although some concern over this Thursday’s ECB meeting may also be weighing on demand for the EUR. Look for a potentially volatile week in this cross given the respective monetary policy meetings from both the ECB and RBA (this afternoon). Look for potential divergence in signalling for maximum movement with key respective support and resistances lying at .6710 (1.4903 resistance) and in the .6930/50 (1.4430/1.4388 support) zone.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
AUD/EURO 0.6820 0.6710 0.6875 0.6733 - 0.6826
EURO/AUD 1.4662 1.4545 1.4903 1.4651 - 1.4852

Friday 2nd September 2:30pm(NZT)
The Australian dollar has eased in trade against the Euro this week. With little in the way of critical data from either region this week the moves have been relatively muted so far, although soft Australian data yesterday (and weaker oil prices) has seen the AUD underperform in the face of a weaker USD overnight. Look for the respective central bank interest rate decisions to have a large influence on trade next week (RBA on Tuesday, ECB on Thursday). For now we have a mild AUD sell bias, although a break of .6710 support (1.4903 resistance) is required to increase the Australian dollar downside momentum.
The current interbank midrate is:    AUDEUR 0.6737    EURAUD 1.4844

The interbank range this week has been:    AUDEUR 0.6724 - 0.6803    EURAUD 1.4700 - 1.4872
Tuesday 30th August 2:00pm(NZT)
The Australian dollar is trading marginally higher against the Euro since our report on Friday. Most of the volatility seen in the interim occurred during the comments from the senior US Fed officials who spoke at Jackson Hole over the weekend (and Friday). For now support around .6710 (1.4903 resistance) has again held well following those comments from the Fed’s Fischer. These lent support to the USD (and reduced the appeal of high yielders like the AUD as the market increased the odds on Fed rate hikes). Data from neither region looks likely to drive the cross materially in one direction this week, although fallout from Friday’s US employment data has the potential to change that view.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
AUD/EURO 0.6766 0.6710 0.6820 0.6722 - 0.6803
EURO/AUD 1.4780 1.4663 1.4903 1.4700 - 1.4876

Friday 26th August 3:30pm(NZT)
The Australian dollar has drifted marginally higher against the Euro in trade this week. A lack of news from both regions and a focus on this weekend’s Jackson Hole meeting has meant that volatility so far during the week has been very limited. This may change later today and overnight as we begin to get headlines out of the meeting of economic and central bank leaders. For now support at .6710 (1.4903 resistance) remains in place whilst on the topside we would look for selling to emerge nearer first resistance around .6820 (1.4663 support).
The current interbank midrate is:    AUDEUR 0.6754    EURAUD 1.4806

The interbank range this week has been:    AUDEUR 0.6716 - 0.6774    EURAUD 1.4762 - 1.4889
Tuesday 23rd August 1:30pm(NZT)
The Australian dollar has drifted lower against the Euro since our report on Friday. There have been no new major economic leads from either Europe or Australia in the interim which was meant the move has been a reflection of the weak relative demand for the AUD in the face of the improved USD interest. We expect a relatively quiet week for the cross until Friday with leads starting with European PMI indicators today. These shouldn’t disrupt greatly so look for focus to centre on the end of week Jackson Hole meeting of central bankers.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
AUD/EURO 0.6740 0.6710 0.6820 0.6716 - 0.6872
EURO/AUD 1.4836 1.4663 1.4903 1.4552 - 1.4889

Friday 19th August 1:30pm(NZT)
The Australian dollar has continued to move lower in trade against the Euro this week. The move reflects the disappointing performance of the AUD when viewed in the context of the weakening USD during the week which sees the Euro sitting near its highs of the week in current trade. We now favour selling rallies in this cross towards fresh resistance near .6820 (1.4663). Fresh leads for next week will start with European PMI indicators on Tuesday.
The current interbank midrate is:    AUDEUR 0.6759    EURAUD 1.4794

The interbank range this week has been:    AUDEUR 0.6759 - 0.6905    EURAUD 1.4482 - 1.4794
Tuesday 16th August 1:30pm(NZT)
The Australian dollar has eased against the Euro in trade since Friday. The drift lower came on the back of reduced demand for the AUD in the wake of weaker than expected Chinese data that was received late on Friday. Losses have been limited to .6830 (1.4641) so far. However, the move has the potential of turning into the third major peak (and fifth sizeable peak) which has formed above .6900 (1.4493) since December last year. This has us wary of further AUD gains in the cross for the time being. Events to watch for the pair this week include the Australian employment numbers on Thursday and EU inflation and the ECB minutes later in the day.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
AUD/EURO 0.6857 0.6825 0.6950 0.6847 - 0.6933
EURO/AUD 1.4583 1.4388 1.4652 1.4425 - 1.4605

Friday 12th August 2:30pm(NZT)
The Australian dollar is trading unchanged against the Euro since our report on Tuesday. The move comes in what has been a quiet week from both regions for data which has seen both the AUD and EUR move higher on the back of the sliding greenback. We expect further quiet trading in the days ahead, most likely until next Thursday’s Australian employment data. First AUD support is seen at .6850 (1.4599 resistance), whilst first AUD resistance is seen around .6950 (1.4388 support). Look for trading to be contained within these levels over the days ahead.
The current interbank midrate is:    AUDEUR 0.6893    EURAUD 1.4509

The interbank range this week has been:    AUDEUR 0.6851 - 0.6933    EURAUD 1.4424 - 1.4596
Tuesday 9th August 2:30pm(NZT)
The Australian dollar has continued to advance against the Euro in trade since our report on Friday. The move reflects the relative outperformance of the AUD in the face of the strong US employment data on Friday which has seen all the other key currencies we cover lose ground against the greenback since the data. Gains so far have been held in check by the 2016 .6925 highs (1.4440 lows). A break of this level would open up to the next resistance at .6950 (1.4388 support). Data from both regions is relatively light this week and this has us favouring continued support for the AUD on any dips, based on the current momentum. Events worth noting are RBA Governor Stevens’s speech tomorrow and the euro area Q2 GDP data on Friday.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
AUD/EURO 0.6905 0.6710 0.6925 0.6710 - 0.6923
EURO/AUD 1.4482 1.4440 1.4903 1.4445 - 1.4904

Friday 5th August 12:30pm(NZT)
The Australian dollar has rallied against the Euro since our report on Tuesday. The move comes on the back of the sharp rally in the AUD which followed Tuesday’s move by the RBA to cut rates. The cross and the AUD/USD are trading on their highs as demand for the AUD remains robust in current trade. Resistance levels to watch for this move are .6900 (1.4493 support) and .6925 (1.4440 support). Look for potential volatility over today’s later US data. This afternoon’s RBA monetary policy statement should pass without too much fuss.
The current interbank midrate is:    AUDEUR 0.6860    EURAUD 1.4577

The interbank range this week has been:    AUDEUR 0.6710 - 0.6861    EURAUD 1.4575 - 1.4904
Tuesday 2nd August 3:00pm(NZT)
The Australian dollar has eased against the Euro since Friday in a move which has largely been a result of weakness in the AUD ahead of this afternoon’s key RBA monetary policy decision. Expectations are high (~68%) for a further cut in the cash rate at the meeting this afternoon after last week’s soft local inflation data. This decision looks very likely to set the direction in this cross for most of the week. Support is noted at .6650 (1.5038 resistance) whilst initial AUD resistance should be seen around .6825 (1.4652 support). Key topside resistance is noted around .6900 (1.4493 support).
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
AUD/EURO 0.6745 0.6650 0.6825 0.6739 - 0.6861
EURO/AUD 1.4826 1.4652 1.5038 1.4575 - 1.4840

Friday 29th July 1:45pm(NZT)
The Australian dollar has eased against the Euro in trade since our last report. Volatility was noted over the Australian inflation data which saw the AUD trade to highs above .6860 (1.4577 lows). However, the subsequent easing in the AUD and rally in the EUR against the USD has seen the AUD move lower since. Look for more volatility next week given the relatively even balance of the split in expectations on the likely move by the RBA at next Tuesday’s monetary policy meeting. Support is noted at .6750 (1.4815 resistance) whilst on the AUD topside key resistance is eyed at .6900 (1.4493 support).
The current interbank midrate is:    AUDEUR 0.6786    EURAUD 1.4736

The interbank range this week has been:    AUDEUR 0.6760 - 0.6861    EURAUD 1.4575 - 1.4793
Tuesday 26th July 2:00pm(NZT)
The Australian dollar has drifted in trade against the Euro since our report on Friday. The lateral trading experienced was to be expected given the lack of key data coming from both regions in the interim. Look for direction this week to come from Wednesday’s Australian inflation numbers which will have a key bearing on whether the RBA chooses to cut rates when they meet next week. We have little bias ahead of this data and see more range trading until the release as being most likely.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
AUD/EURO .6812 .6750 .6825 .6762 - .6829
EURO/AUD 1.4680 1.4650 1.4820 1.4643 - 1.4789
 

Friday 22nd July 1:00pm(NZT)
The Australian dollar is trading marginally lower against the Euro in trade since our last report. Moves have been relatively muted within a .6765/.6820 (1.4782/1.4663) range since Tuesday and come during a relatively quiet week for both regions after the ECB left its policy unchanged overnight as expected and the RBA leaned towards a likely further easing at its next August meeting. Wednesday’s Australian inflation data will be important for this cross given its relevance to the RBA decision and until then we expect to see further range trading within the last few day’s range.
The current interbank midrate is:    AUDEUR 0.6802    EURAUD 1.4702

The interbank range this week has been:    AUDEUR 0.6767 - 0.6893    EURAUD 1.4507 - 1.4778
Tuesday 19th July 1:00pm(NZT)
The Australian dollar is drifting lower in trade this week against the Euro. There has been little to go on for this cross since our last report as both the EUR and AUD have drifted lower after Friday’s better than expected US data (USD+). Fresh influence for the cross will come from today’s RBA minutes. Focus in Europe will be on Thursday’s ECB monetary policy meeting where for now expectations are that the ECB will not add any further stimulus. We lack any real bias, although for now the recent AUD upside momentum looks to be waning.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
AUD/EURO .6814 .6800 .6900 .6813 - .6906
EURO/AUD 1.4676 1.4493 1.4706 1.4481 - 1.4679

Friday 15th July 2:00pm(NZT)
The Australian dollar remains firm in current trade against the Euro. Highs just above .6900 (1.4493) were seen earlier in the week although the gains in the EUR have managed to outpace those of the AUD over the last couple of days despite yesterday’s strong Australian full-time employment numbers. We favour buying dips for now towards .6800 (1.4706) as we look forward to the RBA minutes and German ZEW economic sentiment release on Tuesday.
The current interbank midrate is:    AUDEUR 0.6854    EURAUD 1.4591

The interbank range this week has been:    AUDEUR 0.6752 - 0.6906    EURAUD 1.4481 - 1.4809
Tuesday 12th July 1:00pm(NZT)
The Australian dollar has continued to firm against the Euro since our last report. The move comes on the back of the solid showing from the AUD after the US employment data on Friday and on the back of the increased political clarity in Australia after counting at the weekend revealed the ruling Liberal Coalition government would remain in power. Look for general sentiment in Europe and the Australian employment data on Thursday to set direction for the cross. We favour buying dips overall (towards .6650, 1.5038) for now.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
AUD/EURO 0.6814 0.6750 0.6855 0.6695 - 0.6858
EURO/AUD 1.4677 1.4588 1.4815 1.4582 - 1.4937

Friday 8th July 12:00pm(NZT)
The Australian dollar is largely unchanged against the Euro since our report on Tuesday. Weak sentiment continues to limit any gains in the Euro, although the AUD has also been unable to move higher on the back of concerns over the budget deficit and the Australian country credit rating and until the outcome of the Australian election is finalised. Resistance at .6800 (1.4706 support) has so far limited the rally, although we favour AUD buying dips towards .6650 (rallies to 1.5038) overall. Look to today’s US employment data for fresh volatility, especially should the result impact high yielders like the AUD.
The current interbank midrate is:    AUDEUR 0.6765    EURAUD 1.4781

The interbank range this week has been:    AUDEUR 0.6687 - 0.6802    EURAUD 1.4701 - 1.4954
Tuesday 5th July 2:00pm(NZT)
The Australian dollar has continued to rally against the Euro since our report on Friday. The move comes as the market overlooks the prospect of a hung Australian parliament in favour of currencies with a reduced exposure to the unfolding crisis in the UK and Europe. Look to the RBA cash rate announcement this afternoon for immediate direction in this cross. We favour buying AUD dips this week as the market remains focussed on the Brexit issue.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
AUD/EURO 0.6755 0.6650 0.6800 0.6647 - 0.6773
EURO/AUD 1.4803 1.4706 1.5038 1.4765 - 1.5044

Friday 1st July 3:00pm(NZT)
The Australian dollar has lifted against the Euro in trade since Tuesday.  The gains come as the political landscape in Europe heats up after the decision by the UK to leave the EU on Friday last week. The ‘risk’ currencies such as the AUD have gained relief from the rise in confidence seen during the week. Recent highs around .6750 (lows 1.4815)  are the first AUD resistance area of note heading into this weekend’s Australian election. Look for UK/EU headlines, risk appetite, and the RBA cash rate decision to dominate next week. We favour buying AUD on  dips towards .6600 (rallies to 1.5152) currently.
The current interbank midrate is:    AUDEUR 0.6699    EURAUD 1.4927

The interbank range this week has been:    AUDEUR 0.6612 - 0.6752    EURAUD 1.4810 - 1.5125
Tuesday 28th June 2:00pm(NZT)
The Australian dollar sits at similar levels against the Euro in current trade to those seen on Friday. This comes despite the decision by the UK to leave the EU, which initially saw the cross trade to highs above .6750 (1.4815). The easing in recent hours comes on the back of the relative underperformance by the ‘risk’ currencies in overnight trade against the USD. First support for the cross is noted around .6600 (1.5152 resistance), whilst Friday’s highs above .6750 (1.4815) is the first level to watch on the topside. We favour buying dips in the cross as the political environment heats up in the EU over the weeks ahead, although global risk appetite complicates the call considerably.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
AUD/EURO 0.6678 0.6600 0.6755 0.6584 - 0.6752
EURO/AUD 1.4973 1.5152 1.4804 1.4810 - 1.5189

Friday 24th June 3:00pm(NZT)
The Australian dollar has rallied against the Euro since our report on Tuesday. The move comes in the lead-up to the outcome of today’s UK EU referendum as the market has embraced the risk currencies in anticipation of the ‘remain’ camp winning. Volatility is already extreme and this will remain the case throughout the day and well into next week. Levels of note are today’s highs around .6700 (1.4925) and recent lows set a month ago around .6390 (1.5649). Beyond .6700/10 (1.4945, 1.4903), the .6930 (1.4430) level is the next key level on the AUD topside.
The current interbank midrate is:    AUDEUR 0.6670    EURAUD 1.4993

The interbank range this week has been:    AUDEUR 0.6537 - 0.6703    EURAUD 1.4919 - 1.5298
Tuesday 21st June 2:00pm(NZT)
The Australian dollar has continued to edge higher against the Euro since our last report. Gains have continued to be capped around .6600 (1.5152) so far after the cross took a boost this week from the increased demand for risk currencies that took place after polling at the weekend which showed an increase in the ‘remain’ vote in the UK EU referendum. Look for this issue to again drive volatility this week as the UK heads to the polls on Thursday. Australian events of interest are today, they include a speech by the RBA’s Debelle and the RBA minutes. Second resistance is pegged around .6685 (1.4959 support), second support is at .6390 (1.5649 resistance).
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
AUD/EURO 0.6592 0.6500 0.6610 0.6509 - 0.6605
EURO/AUD 1.5170 1.5129 1.5385 1.5139 - 1.5363

Friday 17th June 3:00pm(NZT)
The Australian dollar has drifted higher against the Euro this week. Lows were limited to ahead of .6500 (1.5385) and came on the back of the AUD/JPY selling that was seen after the BOJ left rates on hold at their monetary policy meeting yesterday. Highs which were capped around the .6600 (1.5152) level were limited by the ‘risk’ related supply that placed the AUD under pressure during the week. The Brexit risk concerns have also placed the EUR under selling pressure at times during the week. Look for this theme to again dominate trade next week and for volatility to increase towards the week’s end as the UK heads to the polls.
The current interbank midrate is:    AUDEUR 0.6567    EURAUD 1.5228

The interbank range this week has been:    AUDEUR 0.6509 - 0.6605    EURAUD 1.5139 - 1.5363
Tuesday 14th June 2:00pm(NZT)
The Australian dollar has eased in recent trade against the Euro. The move comes on an easing in ‘risk’ currencies like the AUD and NZD on the back of heightened political concern, economic uncertainty and contagion as polling on the UK EU referendum points to a strong possibility of a UK exit from the EU. This issue will continue to have a strong influence on the cross this week given the relatively light data calendars from both regions which will be dominated by the Australian employment report on Thursday.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
AUD/EURO 0.6542 0.6500 0.6580 0.6483 - 0.6580
EURO/AUD 1.5287 1.5198 1.5385 1.5197 - 1.5425

Friday 10th June 3:00pm(NZT)
The Australian dollar has rallied against the Euro this week. Gains came on the back of a supportive environment for risk and after Tuesday’s RBA statement which failed to accommodate market doves (AUD+). Some easing has been noted from the highs on the back of lower key $AUD sensitive commodity prices over the last 24 hours. Australian employment numbers on Thursday loom as the most important event to watch next week. Resistance is eyed at the weekly highs near .6580 (1.5198 support) whilst first support should now lie in the .6500/.6510 zone (1.5385/1.5361 support). We favour buying dips.
The current interbank midrate is:    AUDEUR 0.6566    EURAUD 1.5231

The interbank range this week has been:    AUDEUR 0.6446 - 0.6580    EURAUD 1.5197 - 1.5513
Tuesday 7th June 3:00pm(NZT)
The Australian dollar sits largely unchanged against the Euro in trade since our last report. Both currencies emerged as victors on Friday after the US employment report miss whilst little response was seen earlier from the EUR after Thursday’s (on expectations) ECB meeting. Immediate interest for the cross now turns to today’s RBA cash rate announcement and statement this afternoon. We lack any real bias and continue to see range trading as the most likely outcome this week especially should today’s RBA meeting turn out to be a non-event.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
AUD/EURO 0.6491 0.6390 0.6560 0.6434 - 0.6561
EURO/AUD 1.5405 1.5244 1.5649 1.5241 - 1.5541

Thursday 2nd June 1:30pm(NZT)
The Australian dollar has lifted in trade this week against the Euro, although has given up much of its gains from the weekly highs. The initial rally came on the back of better than expected key Australian data (most so Q1 GDP) although the rally against the USD has moderated considerably in the last 24 hours. The Euro by comparison has lifted ahead of tonight’s ECB meeting which looks likely to be the most important event for the remainder of the week. Australian retail sales should also be noted this afternoon. Resistance is seen from the weekly highs to .6575 (1.5209 support). Support is seen around .6390 (1.5649 resistance).
The current interbank midrate is:    AUDEUR 0.6480    EURAUD 1.5433

The interbank range this week has been:    AUDEUR 0.6413 - 0.6561    EURAUD 1.5241 - 1.5592
Tuesday 31st May 2:30pm(NZT)
The Australian dollar continues to remain entrapped within its range of the last 3+ weeks against the Euro in current trade. Chances of a break-out this week look higher than that seen for most of this month as the ECB convenes for its meeting on monetary policy and various Australian data releases of note hit the newswire (GDP, retails sales, building approvals, current account amongst others). We lack a view on the likely breakout which will be data or (perhaps more likely) central bank driven. Initial momentum prior to the recent consolidation period was to the AUD downside however.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
AUD/EURO 0.6451 0.6390 0.6500 0.6391 - 0.6472
EURO/AUD 1.5500 1.5385 1.5649 1.5450 - 1.5647

Friday 27th May 2:00pm(NZT)
This has been the quietest currency pair of any we focus on in the past couple of weeks. Trading has been totally range bound between 0.6400 and 0.6500 (1.5385 - 1.5625). A brief AUD dip on Tuesday in the wake of RBA Governor Stevens speech did see 0.6391 (1.5647) trade, but the AUD quickly recovered back toward the middle of it range at 0.6450 (1.5500). Look for more of the same as we head into the weekend. A raft of data from Australia next week may liven things up with building approvals, GDP, retails sales and the trade balance all set for release. We also have the ECB interest rate meeting on Thursday to draw focus.
The current interbank midrate is:    AUDEUR 0.6456    EURAUD 1.5489

The interbank range this week has been:    AUDEUR 0.6391 - 0.6472    EURAUD 1.5452 - 1.5647
Tuesday 24th May 2:00pm(NZT)
The Australian dollar has eased against the Euro since our report on Friday. Range trading has been the order of the day for this cross over the last two weeks and this again looks likely this week given the lack of critical incoming data from either region. Critical to holding the downside momentum will be the .6400 (1.5625) level however, as a break of this area looks likely to open significant downside. AUD and commodity sentiment are key to watch this week. Note the RBA Governor’s speech later today also.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
AUD/EURO 0.6437 0.6400 0.6500 0.6416 - 0.6506
EURO/AUD 1.5535 1.5385 1.5625 1.5370 - 1.5587

Friday 20th May 3:00pm(NZT)
The Australian dollar has drifted against the Euro this week, although sits slightly higher from Tuesday. Trade has been largely bounded between .6400 and .6500 (1.5625/1.5385) and comes after a lack of data out of Europe and Australian employment data which largely conformed to the consensus. While .6400 (1.5625) level holds, we favour a bounce given the nature of the recent plunge although a break of that level could signal further decent declines in time. Data releases pick up in Europe next week but look unlikely to be the driver so look to relative EUR and AUD sentiment and commodity moves for guidance on direction.
The current interbank midrate is:    AUDEUR 0.6454    EURAUD 1.5494

The interbank range this week has been:    AUDEUR 0.6408 - 0.6506    EURAUD 1.5370 - 1.5605
Tuesday 17th May 2:00pm(NZT)
The Australian dollar has lifted marginally against the Euro since our commentary on Friday. There has been little for the cross to go on since the report and this looks most likely to again be the case until the Australian employment numbers on Thursday. The strong falls of the last three weeks have been AUD driven and for now given the extent of those declines we are more cautious on any additional extension lower. Support at .6400 (1.5625 resistance) looks pivotal for now, although AUD/USD sentiment will drive.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
AUD/EURO 0.6432 0.6400 0.6490 0.6408 - 0.6492
EURO/AUD 1.5546 1.5408 1.5625 1.5403 - 1.5605

Friday 13th May 3:00pm(NZT)
The Australian dollar remains under pressure against the Euro in current trade today. Gains have been limited to .6490 (1.5408 support) this week. This level is noted as the first level of resistance, whilst a break of the weekly lows around .6400 (1.5625) could open .6150 (1.6260) in time. We favour selling rallies currently based on the bearish sentiment that has overwhelmed the AUD since last week’s RBA events. Important indicators next week will include the Australian employment numbers (Wednesday) although again look to commodity sentiment for further influence.
The current interbank midrate is:    AUDEUR 0.6415    EURAUD 1.5587

The interbank range this week has been:    AUDEUR 0.6408 - 0.6493    EURAUD 1.5401 - 1.5605
 
Tuesday 10th May 2:00pm(NZT)
The Australian dollar has continued to fall against the Euro since our last report. The move comes on the back of the further losses that were seen by the AUD after the bearish RBA statement on monetary policy later on Friday and after the further falls in key commodities overnight. Support beyond the recent lows ahead of .6400 (1.5625) is not evident until around .6150 (1.6260 resistance). First resistance is noted around .6575 (1.5209 support). We favour selling AUD rallies at present based of the poor commodity currency sentiment and key support breaks.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
AUD/EURO 0.6415 0.6150 0.6575 0.6414 - 0.6692
EURO/AUD 1.5594 1.5209 1.6260 1.4943 - 1.5592

Friday 6th May 2:00pm(NZT)
The Australian dollar has fallen heavily against the UK pound this week. The move came on Tuesday after the decision by the RBA to cut rates to fresh lows at 1.75%. Selling of commodity currencies and a reduced appetite for risk has meant the AUD has been unable to bounce greatly in the aftermath of the decision despite the trifecta of weak UK PMI data. Support for the cross is seen at .5100 (1.9608 resistance), resistance is now eyed at .5250 (1.9048 support). Look to today’s RBA statement on monetary policy, tonight’s US data and next week’s BoE monetary policy announcement for direction over the coming week.
The current interbank midrate is:    AUDEUR 0.6548    EURAUD 1.5273

The interbank range this week has been:    AUDEUR 0.6484 - 0.6729    EURAUD 1.4860 - 1.5423
Tuesday 3rd May 2:20pm(NZT)
The Australian dollar has continued to decline against the Euro since our report on Friday. The move represents a continuation of the theme set after the soft Australian Q1 inflation print and comes on the back of better than expected euro-zone GDP/PMI data released over the last two trading days. The outcome of today’s RBA decision will set the tone for trade in this cross over the week. We lack any bias from here given the delicate balance of the split in expectations over the outcome. Expect volatility to be high over the announcement.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
AUD/EURO 0.6649 0.6550 0.6750 0.6613 - 0.6869
EURO/AUD 1.5039 1.4815 1.5267 1.4558 - 1.5122

Friday 29th April 2:00pm(NZT)
The Australian dollar has fallen markedly against the Euro this week. The decline came largely on the back of Wednesday’s miss in the latest Australian inflation data. Only a small bounce has been seen from the lows, a bounce which has so far capped ahead of the old support (.6750, 1.4815). This level now forms first resistance to any rallies. On the downside support beyond the weekly lows is not evident until the .6550/.6575 zone (1.5267/1.5209). We favour a further push lower next week, although note the complexity added to the view by the RBA announcement on Tuesday.
The current interbank midrate is:    AUDEUR 0.6718    EURAUD 1.4885

The interbank range this week has been:    AUDEUR 0.6692 - 0.6889    EURAUD 1.4515 - 1.4943
Tuesday 26th April 2:20pm(NZT)
The Australian dollar has eased marginally against the Euro since Friday’s report. The drift lower comes on the back of the pressure seen in the key commodities which bear on the AUD, particularly so iron ore which fell 3% in overnight trade. Look for immediate direction in this cross to come from the Australian inflation print tomorrow. Wednesday’s FOMC outcome could also have an important bearing on higher yielding currencies like the AUD. We favour lower AUD levels for now but acknowledge that the outcomes of the drivers this week will ultimately dictate.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
AUD/EURO 0.6847 0.6750 0.6925 0.6839 - 0.6927
EURO/AUD 1.4603 1.4440 1.4815 1.4437 - 1.4622

Friday 22nd April 2:00pm(NZT)
The Australian dollar has risen marginally against the EUR this week, although sits well adrift from its weekly highs in current trade. The easing has occurred in overnight trade post the ECB meeting as commodities felt the weight of a stronger USD after president Draghi indicated a willingness to wait before adding further ECB stimulus. This move has helped support the EUR somewhat, although it has fallen markedly from its highs against the USD also. Support and resistance for the cross is noted around the weekly extremities. (.6750,.6925)(1.4815,1.4440).
The current interbank midrate is:    AUDEUR 6868    EURAUD 1.4560

The interbank range this week has been:    AUDEUR .6728 - .6927    EURAUD 1.4437 - 1.4863
Tuesday 19th April 2:40pm(NZT)
The Australian dollar has edged higher against the Euro since our last report. Recent trade has seen last week’s high eclipsed and comes after yesterday’s initial heavy sell down of the AUD after Sunday’s Doha oil producer meeting failed to reach a production cap agreement. We expect more volatile trade this week ahead of the ECB meeting on Thursday and as speculative positions in the oil market continue to unwind over the week. We favour buying dips while the sentiment towards commodities continues to improve.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
AUD/EURO 0.6865 0.6750 0.6910 0.6668 - 0.6577
EURO/AUD 1.4565 1.4472 1.4815 1.4541 - 1.4996

Friday 15th April 2:00pm(NZT)
The Australian dollar has rallied strongly against the Euro since our report on Tuesday. The move emulates that of the AUD against the GBP and comes on the back of the solid support seen for commodity and risk currencies this week. The cross has received additional support over the week on the back of the weakness noted in the EUR against the USD. Look for the themes that have impacted this week to again play out prior to our report on Tuesday given the lack of notable data prior.
The current interbank midrate is:    AUDEUR 0.6832    EURAUD 1.4636

The interbank range this week has been:    AUDEUR 0.6597 - 0.6852    EURAUD 1.4595 - 1.5159
Tuesday 12th April 2:30pm(NZT)
The Australian dollar has lifted moderately against the Euro in trade since our commentary on Friday. This comes on the back of the gains which have occurred in commodity currencies, gains which began on Friday as oil prices jumped 6.6%.  We again look to the commodity market again for impetus this week, at least until the Australian employment data release on Thursday. We favour selling AUD rallies near first resistance at present
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
AUD/EURO 0.6648 0.6550 0.6690 0.6580 - 0.6692
EURO/AUD 1.5041 1.4948 1.5267 1.4943 - 1.5198

Friday 8th April 2:00pm(NZT)
The Australian dollar has continued to fall in trade against the Euro this week. As easing in commodity currencies is partly to blame, although the heavy demand noted for the JPY in recent hours has taken a heavier toll on the AUD than the EUR. External factors are likely to continue to dominate this cross over coming days, although Australian employment data on Thursday will be of interest. We favour continued declines in this cross and target fresh resistance around .6690 (1.4948 support) to cap AUD rallies.
The current interbank midrate is:    AUDEUR 0.6621    EURAUD 1.5103

The interbank range this week has been:    AUDEUR 0.6580 - 0.6763    EURAUD 1.4786 - 1.5198
Tuesday 5th April 2:30pm(NZT)
The Australian dollar has fallen in trade against the Euro this week. An overnight easing in the commodity CRB index has placed the AUD under additional pressure which began late on Friday after the release of solid US employment and ISM manufacturing data. Look for today’s RBA monetary policy meeting to have a pivotal bearing on the fortunes for the cross this week. Particular note will be given by the market to any comments or lack of around the recent AUD$ strength, particularly should they influence the rhetoric of the RBA statement.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
AUD/EURO 0.6658 0.6625 0.6820 0.6654 - 0.6794
EURO/AUD 1.5019 1.4663 1.5094 1.4720 - 1.5028

Friday 1st April 3:30pm(NZT)
The Australian dollar has sidetracked against the Euro in trade this week. This comes after an uneventful week for data from both regions, although both the EUR and AUD rallied strongly against the USD over the week after Fed Chair Janet Yellen’s dovish remarks (on US rates) which were delivered during a speech in New York. Last week’s highs at .6820 remains first resistance (1.4663 support) whilst support remains at .6690 (1.4948 resistance). The beginning of next week prior to our report on Tuesday will be dominated by the Australian data due for release on Monday (Retail Sales and Building Approvals).
The current interbank midrate is:    AUDEUR 0.6739    EURAUD 1.4838

The interbank range this week has been:    AUDEUR 0.6709 - 0.6794    EURAUD 1.4720 - 1.4905
Tuesday 29th March 2:30pm(NZT)
The Australian dollar sits largely unchanged on levels from a week ago against the Euro in current trade. A rally to highs ahead of .6820 (lows 1.4663) was observed after our report and came on the back of gains inspired by comments from RBA Governor Stevens and losses in the EUR after the Brussels terrorist attacks. Losses which have occurred since have been aided by declines in the key AUD sensitive commodities prices. Prices this week look likely to be contained by last week’s extremities given the light data calendars due from both regions.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
AUD/EURO 0.6742 0.6690 0.6820 0.6701 - 0.6819
EURO/AUD 1.4832 1.4663 1.4948 1.4664 - 1.4924

Tuesday 22nd March 3:30pm(NZT)
The Australian dollar is drifting in current trade against the Euro. We favour this cross being well contained within last week’s ranges this week given the relatively low impact nature of the data due this week. Both the EUR and AUD have been well sought after post the US Fed meeting last week, although the commodity appeal of the AUD has seen it marginally outperform. Watch for any RBA Governor currency specific comments later today.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
AUD/EURO 0.6741 0.6690 0.6800 0.6693 - 0.6795
EURO/AUD 1.4834 1.4706 1.4948 1.4717 - 1.4940

Friday 18th March 1:30pm(NZT)
The Australian dollar is trading largely unchanged in trade against the Euro this week. Declines were seen early in the week on the back of the generalized easing in commodities and commodity based currencies. Lows around .6690 (1.4948) were seen prior to yesterday’s US FOMC meeting. The larger than expected move down in the Fed’s “dot plot” interest rate path has particularly benefitted currencies like the AUD with an exposure to risk and commodities, although the broad based USD selling has seen the EUR rally also. Resistance is pegged at .6800 (1.4706 support), although the trend is for a higher AUD at present.
The current interbank midrate is:    AUDEUR 0.6747    EURAUD 1.4821

The interbank range this week has been:    AUDEUR 0.6656 - 0.6802    EURAUD 1.4701 - 1.5023
Tuesday 15th March 1:30pm(NZT)
The Australian dollar has moved higher against the Euro since our report on Friday. The AUD fell sharply early on Friday after the market latched on to ECB President Draghi’s comments over the unlikelihood of further cuts to the ECB deposit rate. Most of these losses have eroded however, on the back of the solid performance seen by the AUD/USD. This performance has once again been helped by improving commodity prices and supportive risk sentiment. Events to note for the pairing this week are the RBA minutes this afternoon and Australian employment data on Thursday. The US FOMC statement also on Thursday may have important considerations for commodity pricing also.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
AUD/EURO 0.6770 0.6600 0.6800 0.6628 - 0.6910
EURO/AUD 1.4771 1.4706 1.5152 1.4472 - 1.5086

Friday 11th March 1:30pm(NZT)
The Australian dollar has fallen sharply against the EUR in trade overnight. The solid showing for the cross seen earlier in the week quickly evaporated after the overnight ECB monetary policy meeting. The move lower has come on the back of the sharp rally which was seen in the EUR/USD post the ECB meeting. This came after president Draghi’s Q&A session where he indicated that further cuts to the deposit rate (after last night 10 bps cut) were unlikely. Support is now seen around .6600 (1.5152 resistance), first resistance is seen at .6700 (1.4925 support). The data schedules next week are busy for both regions.
The current interbank midrate is:    AUDEUR 0.6671    EURAUD 1.4990

The interbank range this week has been:    AUDEUR 0.6628 - 0.6910    EURAUD 1.4472 - 1.5086
Friday 4th March 6:00pm(NZT)
The EUR has overcome a poor start to the week to be trading higher than its opening levels of the week in current trade. The lift comes on the back of a weaker USD and European services and composite PMI data which provided a positive surprise on the final read overnight. Positive results were noted from all the key contributing countries except France. Data released earlier in the week included a well-flagged soft euro-zone inflation print and easing in the positive momentum of the European manufacturing sector. European employment data continued to display a weak job environment although continued on its path of a slow improvement in the trend. U.S. data including the key non-farm payrolls employment report will be the focus for trade tonight. Next week’s busy calendar will be dominated by the ECB interest rate decision on Friday morning.
Impact on this currency pair:
The current interbank midrate is:    AUDEUR 0.6719    EURAUD 1.4883

The interbank range this week has been:    AUDEUR 0.6502 - 0.6746    EURAUD 1.4823 - 1.5381
Tuesday 1st March 2:30pm(NZT)
The Australian dollar is drifting in recent trade against the Euro, this comes ahead of this afternoon’s Australian data and RBA cash rate announcement. Expectations are for no move from the RBA at 4.30 today, a mild easing bias is also expected to be maintained. Australian data this week is likely to dictate, other announcements include the Q4 GDP report (tomorrow) and retail sales on Friday. We have a mild upside bias but the data-flow and the RBA dialogue will hold the key to the next move.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
AUD/EURO 0.6558 0.6490 0.6600 0.6491 - 0.6593
EURO/AUD 1.5248 1.5152 1.5408 1.5167 - 1.5405

Friday 26th February 2:00pm(NZT)
The Australian dollar is trading with a firm tone against the EUR in present trade. Strong early week gains eased in the middle of the week on the back of the decline seen in the AUD/USD exchange rate (seen on the back of weaker global equities and risk flow). The fallout from a potential U.K. exit from the E.U. has been the key overall driving factor for the cross this week. This issue will again be prevalent next week, although data considerations will feature more highly given the heavier data calendar (mainly Australian events). Respective AUD support and resistance is noted at .6490 (1.5408 resistance) and .6600(1.5152 support).
The current interbank midrate is:    AUDEUR 0.6562    EURAUD 1.5240

The interbank range this week has been:    AUDEUR 0.6373 - 0.6593    EURAUD 1.5167 - 1.5690
Tuesday 23th February 4:00pm(NZT)
The Australian dollar has rallied strongly in trade against the EUR this week. This comes on the back of the weak showing by the EUR as it suffers from the fall-out over a potential British exit from the EU at the 23rd June UK referendum. Weak euro-zone PMI data overnight added to the pressure on the EUR. The AUD in contrast has rallied strongly on the back of firmer key commodity pricing and improved risk sentiment. Data considerations are light for the cross this week, this should allow the AUD to build on its gains should the risk and commodity price environment stay supportive.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
AUD/EURO 0.6553 0.6450 0.6585 0.6341 - 0.6577
EURO/AUD 1.5260 1.5186 1.5504 1.5205 - 1.5771

Friday 19th February 2:00pm(NZT)
The Australian dollar continues to gain against the Euro in trade this week. This comes on the back of reduced financial market volatility this week which has seen the AUD/USD consolidate, and on the back of losses in the EUR/USD. We favour this trend to continue next week, especially if the recent surge in financial market volatility continues to dissipate. Key resistance is eyed around the .6550 (1.5267) level. First minor support levels are seen at .6400 (1.5625 resistance) and .6340 (1.5773 resistance).
The current interbank midrate is:    AUDEUR 0.6429    EURAUD 1.5555

The interbank range this week has been:    AUDEUR 0.6264 - 0.6462    EURAUD 1.5474 - 1.5963
Tuesday 16th February 2:00pm(NZT)
The Australian dollar has continued to enjoy the gains seen late last week against the Euro. This comes on the back of the recovery seen in risk sentiment after Friday’s better than expected U.S. data which has helped consolidate the recent upswing seen in the AUD/USD exchange rate. The rapid gains seen by the EUR/USD this month have eased somewhat in recent trade, in part on the back of comments from ECB president Draghi overnight. Australian employment numbers on Thursday are the only key numbers of note this week which are likely to affect this cross significantly; this will mean that changes in risk sentiment will continue to be a key driver behind moves in the lead-up to the release.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
AUD/EURO 0.6400 0.6150 0.6420 0.6180 - 0.6419
EURO/AUD 1.5625 1.5576 1.6260 1.5580 - 1.6182

Friday 12th February 2:00pm(NZT)
The Australian dollar has fallen against the Euro this week although has enjoyed a decent bounce of its lows in recent hours. With notable data lacking this week it has been down to liquidity and flow considerations in the AUD/USD and EUR/USD to dictate trade. Elevated risk aversion sentiment has seen the Euro outperform during the week. These issues should again be the dominant themes next week, although Australian employment data on Thursday will also be important. Resistance to continued strength should be seen in the .6370-.6410 area (1.5699-1.5601 support).
The current interbank midrate is:    AUDEUR 0.6280    EURAUD 1.5924

The interbank range this week has been:    AUDEUR 0.6180 - 0.6437    EURAUD 1.5536 - 1.6182
Tuesday 9th February 3:00pm(NZT)
The Australian dollar has continued to fall heavily against the Euro this week and now sits some 3% below its opening levels this month. This comes on the back of the strong recent showing seen in the Euro which has benefitted from ‘safety’ flow during the recent period of elevated financial market uncertainty. The AUD is typically very vulnerable during periods where market risk appetite is reduced, such as those experienced in recent days. We favour lower Australian dollar levels ahead.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
AUD/EURO .6313 .6220 .6400 .6313 - .6539
EURO/AUD 1.5840 1.5625 1.6080 1.5294 -1.5840

Friday 5th February 2:00pm(NZT)
The Australian dollar has eased against the Euro this week and especially so in recent hours as the EUR/USD sits on the majority of its sharp gains seen against the USD. The AUD/USD has also been a beneficiary of the USD liquidation seen over the last 48 hours, although sits almost 0.5c off its highs in present trade ahead of the pending Australian retail sales report and RBA statement on monetary policy at 11.30 pm AEST today. First resistance is seen around .6485 (support 1.5420), some minor support should be seen under .6400 (resistance 1.5625).
The current interbank midrate is:    AUDEUR 0.6428    EURAUD 1.5557

The interbank range this week has been:    AUDEUR 0.6397 - 0.6556    EURAUD 1.5254 - 1.5632
Tuesday 2nd February 2:00pm(NZT)
The Australian dollar is firming against the Euro in recent trade, although sits near last week’s closing levels presently. The RBA cash rate decision at 2.30pm AEST this afternoon is the immediate threat for this cross. Friday will also be important with both Australian retail sales data and the RBA statement on monetary policy due for release. We favour a continued outperformance of the EUR as the outlook for the AUD/USD exchange rate looks more favourable presently in light of the reducing market volatility.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
AUD/EURO 0.6512 0.6475 0.6560 0.6368 - 0.6556
EURO/AUD 1.5356 1.5244 1.5444 1.5254 - 1.5705

Friday 29th January 1:30pm(NZT)
The Australian dollar sits near its weekly opening against the Euro in present trade. This comes after both currencies have benefitted from a more cautious FOMC statement yesterday than that issued by the Fed in December. A retracement in the AUD/USD exchange rate from the highs has been mirrored by the AUD/EUR after the EUR/USD retained most of its overnight gains. Next week’s moves should be dominated by Australian events and overall risk/commodity currency sentiment. We marginally favour selling towards the overnight highs for now (~.6525, 1.5326).
The current interbank midrate is:    AUDEUR 0.6480    EURAUD 1.5432

The interbank range this week has been:    AUDEUR 0.6368 - 0.6529    EURAUD 1.5316 - 1.5705
Tuesday 26th January 4:00pm(NZT)
The Australian dollar has fallen against the Euro from last week’s highs and like the other AUD pairs we cover is representative of the declines seen in the AUD/USD exchange rate as commodity price and risk concerns weigh on sentiment. These issues will continue to dominate this pair during the week although the Australian inflation data tomorrow adds to the picture. We favour selling rallies in this environment and see little in the way of support until nearer .6200 (1.6129), especially should the prevailing bearish AUD sentiment continue to dominate.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
AUD/EURO 0.6395 0.6215 0.6520 0.6230 - 0.6514
EURO/AUD 1.5637 1.5337 1.6090 1.5352 - 1.6051

Friday 22nd January 2:30pm(NZT)
The Australian dollar sits near its highs against the Euro in present trade after suffering earlier in the week as the AUD/USD exchange rate fell heavily on the back of the declining equity and commodity markets. A strong bounce in the AUD/USD particularly so overnight has seen this pair firm sharply towards the key resistance level pegged in the .6510/20 (1.5361/1.5337 support) zone. While global growth fears remain elevated we see this area as having a high likelihood of capping this Australian dollar bounce.
The current interbank midrate is:    AUDEUR 0.6460    EURAUD 1.5480

The interbank range this week has been:    AUDEUR 0.6225 - 0.6471    EURAUD 1.5453 - 1.6063
Tuesday 19th January 2:00pm(NZT)
It’s been a brutal start to 2016 for this pair as Australian dollar weakness has combined with strength in the Euro, causing the cross to collapse to levels last seen in September. Wider market risk aversion has played a huge role in driving the pair and it’s far too early to say if the worst is behind us. Only time will tell if the Chinese authorities can manage to avoid a hard landing for their economy and in the meantime volatility is more than likely here to stay.  Of particular interest will be this afternoon’s release of Chinese GDP for the fourth quarter. Look for a range of 0.6200 to 0.6400 (1.6129 to 1.5625) over the coming week.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
AUD/EURO 0.6310 0.6200 0.6400 0.6225 - 0.6518
EURO/AUD 1.5848 1.5625 1.6129 1.5343 - 1.6065

Friday 15th January 2:00pm(NZT)
The Australian dollar sits near the middle of its weekly range seen against the Euro this week. Moves have largely reflected the changes in risk sentiment flow displayed towards AUD/USD exchange rate over the course of the week, although the solid bounce from the low seen in the last 24 hrs have also been aided by the ECB minutes and sliding Euro. Support is seen at the .6310 (resistance 1.5848) level with resistance still present in the .6510/20 (support 1.5361/1.5337) zone. We lack a view for now on the likely direction next week which is highly contingent on global risk sentiment. Friday’s ECB meeting next week also complicates.
The current interbank midrate is:    AUDEUR 0.6440    EURAUD 1.5528

The interbank range this week has been:    AUDEUR 0.6319 - 0.6518    EURAUD 1.5343 - 1.5826
Tuesday 12th January 2:00pm(NZT)
The Australian dollar has lost significant ground against the Euro in 2016 on the sharp sell-off seen last week on the back of the surge in global risk aversion which occurred as concerns over Chinese growth hit Chinese and global equities. Some recovery has been seen overnight on the back of the easing EUR/USD and partial AUD/USD exchange rate recovery. The risk aversion theme, commodity pricing and Australian employment data on Thursday will be key to movements in this cross this week. We favour selling AUD in moves towards .6500 (1.5385) in this environment.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
AUD/EURO 0.6432 0.6310 0.6510 0.6319 - 0.6678
EURO/AUD 1.5547 1.5848 1.5361 1.4975 - 1.5826

Tuesday 22nd December 2:00pm(NZT)
The Australian dollar lies near the middle of its range of the last week against the Euro currently. We expect this cross to be bounded by the support/resistance levels over the holiday period. Quiet data calendar’s out of both regions mean that moves will likely be dictated by the thinning market liquidity and commodity currency sentiment. We lack any real bias over the break.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
AUD/EURO .6597 .6520 .6685 .6546 - .6652
EURO/AUD 1.5165 1.4960 1.5340 1.5034 - 1.5276

Friday 18th December 2:30pm(NZT)
The Australian dollar has eased from its highs seen against the Euro overnight. These highs were limited to .6650 (1.5038) ahead of the .6685 (1.4959 support) resistance level. Malaise towards the commodity currencies in recent trade has largely been to blame for the losses, and with a light data calendar out of both regions over coming days it is likely that commodity sentiment will again be the key driver. Support is seen around the .6520 (1.5337 resistance) level.
The current interbank midrate is:    AUDEUR 0.6572    EURAUD 1.5216

The interbank range this week has been:    AUDEUR 0.6520 - 0.6652    EURAUD 1.5034 - 1.5333
Tuesday 15th December 2:00pm(NZT)
The Australian dollar currently sits near the middle of its range seen against the Euro of the last few days. AUD declines on Friday eventually waned around .6520 (1.5337) yesterday and form the immediate AUD support area. ‘Risk-off’ selling and commodity price weakness were the primary contributors to the fall. Resistance is pegged around .6685 (1.4959 support). With a light data calendar out of both regions this week we expect this cross to remain within these recent bounds over coming days
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
AUD/EURO .6595 .6520 .6685 .6520 - .6709
EURO/AUD 1.5163 1.4959 1.5337 1.1906 - 1.5338

Friday 11th December 2:30pm(NZT)
The Australian dollar reversed its early week losses against the Euro in trade yesterday after the release of strong Australian employment data. Highs post the data were limited to .6685 (lows 1.4959) and this area should again now form some AUD resistance on a rally. First support is seen around the weekly lows at .6530 (resistance 1.5314). A poor commodity price environment has us favouring a further retracement towards those lows over the days ahead.
The current interbank midrate is:    AUDEUR 0.6638    EURAUD 1.5065

The interbank range this week has been:    AUDEUR 0.6536 - 0.6770    EURAUD 1.4772 - 1.5301
Tuesday 8th December 2:30pm(NZT)
The Australian dollar is trading heavily against the Euro in current trade. This comes on the back of the fallout from the sharp rally seen in the EUR post the ECB meeting last week. Commodity inspired selling of the AUD sees this cross currently trading near its recent lows. Support is eyed at the .6670 (resistance 1.4993) level, immediate resistance is seen near .6775 (support 1.4760). We favour the AUD to trade heavily in the lead up to Thursday’s Australian employment data, especially whilst key commodity pricing remains weak.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
AUD/EURO 0.6700 0.6670 0.6775 0.6683 - 0.6954
EURO/AUD 1.4925 1.4760 1.4993 1.4380 - 1.4963

Friday 4th December 2:00pm(NZT)
The Australian dollar has fallen sharply overnight against the Euro. Early week gains were seen after sound Australian data combined with heavy EUR selling into the lead up to last night’s ECB monetary policy decision. The failure by the ECB to satisfy the market’s expectations of significant additional monetary stimulus have seen the cross fall from highs around .6950 (high 1.4388) to EUR lows nearly 3.9% lower. Some support is now seen around the .6670 (resistance 1.4993) level, whilst some resistance should form near .6775 (support 1.4760). We now favour selling AUD rallies in this cross, Australian employment data next Thursday will be the next critical driver.
The current interbank midrate is:    AUDEUR 0.6702    EURAUD 1.4921

The interbank range this week has been:    AUDEUR 0.6683 - 0.6953    EURAUD 1.4383 - 1.4963
Tuesday 1st December 4:00pm(NZT)
The Australian dollar remains well bid against the Euro this week in the lead up to Thursday’s all important ECB meeting. Direction for this cross will come from the raft of Australian announcements (including comments to the RBA cash rate decision this afternoon, GDP tomorrow, trade data on Thursday and retail sales on Friday) and the ECB meeting, where the markets expect an expansion and/or extension to the current bond buying programme. Current momentum is higher, but the outcomes to this event ridden week will ultimately determine the next broader move.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
AUD/EURO 0.6852 0.6670 0.7000 0.6748 - 0.6860
EURO/AUD 1.4594 1.4286 1.4993 1.4577 - 1.4819

Friday 27th November 2:30pm(NZT)
The Australian dollar has rallied against the Euro this week although sits off its highs set near the .6850 (lows 1.4599) level. The weaker than expected Australian Q3 CAPEX release yesterday has been partly to blame although like the AUD/GBP some losses had been seen prior. First real support resides around the .6670 (resistance 1.4993) level. We maintain a bullish bias although next week’s heavy release schedule (which includes the RBA cash rate announcement, Australian Q3 GDP, and the ECB monetary policy meeting) easily has the potential to change the recent trend.
The current interbank midrate is:    AUDEUR 0.6810    EURAUD 1.4684

The interbank range this week has been:    AUDEUR 0.6705 - 0.6854    EURAUD 1.4590 - 1.4915
Tuesday 24th November 3:00pm(NZT)
The Australian dollar has rallied strongly against the Euro in recent days helped by continued focus on an imminent easing by the ECB at next week’s monetary policy meeting. Comments from ECB president Draghi on Friday and notes from the ECB minutes (Thursday night) which saw some members wanting to ease policy at the 22nd October ECB meeting, have placed the Euro under further pressure. A relatively quiet data calendar should see the current upwards momentum maintained this week.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
AUD/EURO 0.6760 0.6670 0.6825 0.6636 - 0.6803
EURO/AUD 1.4793 1.4652 1.4993 1.4700 - 1.5070

Thursday 19th November 1:00pm(NZT)
Wider market pressure has seen the EUR underperform the AUD so far this week. The geo-political pressures were coupled with mixed economic news to undermine the EUR demand. Further policy accommodation from the ECB remains an ongoing factor for consideration also, as it has been over the last six weeks or so. All eyes are on the ECB monetary policy meeting minutes later today and the accompanying comments from leader Draghi. With no reason not to expect continuing pressure on the EUR, resistance levels around the .6700 (support 1.4925) will likely be tested at some point in the coming week.
The current interbank midrate is:    AUDEUR 0.6665    EURAUD 1.5004

The interbank range this week has been:    AUDEUR 0.6565 - 0.6695    EURAUD 1.4936 - 1.5232
Tuesday 17th November 3:00pm(NZT)
The Australian dollar continues to trade firmly against the Euro today, although sits off its recent .6670 highs (1.4993) seen after the recent strong Australian employment data release. We favour the AUD upside momentum to continue while the market remains focussed on potential easing at the 3rd of December ECB meeting. This will likely continue to see the market selling EUR/USD rallies over the next two weeks.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
AUD/EURO 0.6648 0.6520 0.6670 0.6547 - 0.6670
EURO/AUD 1.5042 1.4993 1.5337 1.4992 - 1.5273

Friday 13th November 2:00pm(NZT)
The Australian dollar has advanced against the Euro this week although sits well off its highs (.6670, 1.4993) seen yesterday after the release of a strong Australian employment report. This has occurred after the strong rally seen in the EUR/USD exchange rate overnight. Support is eyed around .6520 (resistance 1.5337) and given the likely light impact of the data calendar next week we see this cross remaining within a .6520-.6670 type range.
The current interbank midrate is:    AUDEUR 0.6600    EURAUD 1.5152

The interbank range this week has been:    AUDEUR 0.6536 - 0.6670    EURAUD 1.4992 - 1.5300
Tuesday 10th November 1:30pm(NZT)
The Australian dollar remains firm against the Euro, although off its highs (.6608, 1.5133) after the strong U.S. employment report release on Friday. Heightened talk of an ECB rate cut at its December meeting should see this AUD remain in demand, although Thursdays Australian employment data will be an important driver of the next move. First support should be seen around the .6520 (resistance 1.5337) level. European wide GDP data on Friday and commodity price movements (AUD) will also be noted.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
AUD/EURO 0.6552 0.6520 0.6610 0.6485 - 0.6607
EURO/AUD 1.5263 1.5129 1.5337 1.5136 - 1.5421

Friday 6th November 1:00pm(NZT)
The Australian dollar has risen against the Euro this week after the RBA left its cash rate unchanged on Tuesday at 2.0% against the expectations of many. Additional pressure has come from a soft Euro as the market continues to see an increasing likelihood of further stimulus at the ECB’s December meeting. Next resistance is now eyed in the .6670/80 area (support 1.4993, 1.4970), whilst some demand should be evident on a pull-back to the .6520 (1.5337) area. Immediate direction should come from today’s RBA minutes before the release of Australian unemployment data next Thursday and European wide GDP data next Friday.
The current interbank midrate is:    AUDEUR 0.6565    EURAUD 1.5232

The interbank range this week has been:    AUDEUR 0.6421 - 0.6600    EURAUD 1.5152 - 1.5574
Tuesday 3rd November 5:30pm(NZT)
The Australian dollar remains well below its highs seen against the Euro from the start of last week (.6590, 1.5175). This has come about as the market sold the AUD on the back of increasing expectations of an RBA rate cut at its announcement this afternoon, and to a lesser extent the more hawkish than expected U.S. Fed at last week’s FOMC meeting. We moderately favour gains in this cross, although this will be very dependent on the RBA course of action. A break of resistance around .6515 (1.5349) will open upside towards last week’s highs.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
AUD/EURO 0.6495 0.6400 0.6515 0.6421 - 0.6571
EURO/AUD 1.5396 1.5625 1.5349 1.5219 - 1.5574

Friday 30th October 2:30pm(NZT)
The Australian dollar has eased significantly from its highs seen against the Euro at the start of the week (.6590, 1.5175). The strong gains posted last week after the ECB outlined the real possibility of further easing in December have moderated following the release of a weaker than expected Australian Q3 inflation report. The AUD was also hit particularly hard after the U.S. Fed delivered an upbeat FOMC statement which left a real chance for a rate lift-off in December. The RBA cash rate announcement on Tuesday will now be critical for this cross. First resistance now lies around .6515 (1.5349) with support coming in close to .6400 (1.5625) and .6350 (1.5748) beyond.
The current interbank midrate is:    AUDEUR 0.6463    EURAUD 1.5473

The interbank range this week has been:    AUDEUR 0.6430 - 0.6593    EURAUD 1.5168 - 1.5552
Tuesday 27th October 4:00pm(NZT)
The Australian dollar surged higher against the Euro late last week after ECB President Draghi laid the groundwork for further easing measures in December. His dovish rhetoric immediately pressured the Euro and it has remained on the back foot since. This has seen the pair trade as high as 0.6590 (low 1.5175) in the early stages of this week. We have Australian inflation data to digest tomorrow, after which the focus will quickly switch to next week’s RBA meeting. There have been growing calls for the RBA to cut rates in an effort to offset the recent mortgage increases put in place by the major retail banks. It’s far from a foregone conclusion however and as such we can expect plenty of choppy price action in the lead up to that announcement. Initial downside support comes in around 0.6500 (resistance 1.5385), while on the Australian dollar topside, any break above 0.6600 (below 1.5150) could open the way from a much broader correction toward 0.6780 (1.4750).
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
AUD/EURO 0.6562 0.6500 0.6600 0.6338 - 0.6593
EURO/AUD 1.5239 1.5152 1.5385 1.5168 - 1.5779

Friday 23rd October 1:30pm(NZT)
The Australian dollar trades near its highs against the Euro presently after the overnight ECB commentary severely dented the EURUSD. The prospect of further policy easing by the ECB as early as December has seen the AUD trade above 65 Euro cents in trade this morning. First support looks somewhat distant around .6320 (resistance 1.5823) whilst .6575 (1.5209) above is the target on the current move. Tuesday’s inflation data out of Australia should be watched next week, risk appetite will again also influence.
The current interbank midrate is:    AUDEUR 0.6510    EURAUD 1.5361

The interbank range this week has been:    AUDEUR 0.6338 - 0.6508    EURAUD 1.5366 - 1.5779
Tuesday 20th October 1:25pm(NZT)
The Australian dollar peaked at the start of last week against the Euro as calls for RBA rate cuts increased after Westpac’s decision to raise the variable rate mortgage.  Highs around .6494 (lows 1.5400) seen last Monday now form the first resistance, whilst some minor AUDEUR support is evident around last week’s lows .6320 (highs 1.5823). The ECB monetary policy meeting on Thursday this week will likely be the primary driver of this cross.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
AUD/EURO 0.6398 0.6320 0.6494 0.6327 - 0.6481
EURO/AUD 1.5630 1.5399 1.5823 1.5430 - 1.5806

Friday 16th October 3:00pm(NZT)
The Australian dollar peaked at the start of the week against the Euro, before sliding on the back of softer than expected Chinese trade and consumer price data. Highs around .6494 (lows 1.5400) seen on Monday now form the first resistance, whilst some minor AUD support is evident arounds this week’s lows .6320 (highs 1.5823). Current momentum is favours the AUD after ECB member Nowotny comments dented the Euro overnight. The focus from here will turn to the release on Tuesday of the RBA minutes and more importantly the ECB interest rate decision on Thursday.
The current interbank midrate is:    AUDEUR .6425    EURAUD 1.5564             

The interbank range this week has been:    AUDEUR .6327 - .6492   EURAUD 1.5403 - 1.5806 
Tuesday 13th October 2:00pm(NZT)
The Australian dollar has continued to make further inroads against the Euro over recent days, aided by further key commodity price gains and improving risk sentiment. Critical to further gains will be the release of Thursday’s Australian September employment report and to a lesser extent Chinese trade data later today. Challenges of resistance near .6530 (support1.5314) and .6550 (1.5267) appear possible given current momentum. First support lies near .6427 (resistance 1.5560).
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
AUD/EURO 0.6477 0.6427 0.6530 0.6318 - 0.6492
EURO/AUD 1.5439 1.5314 1.5559 1.5403 - 1.5829

Friday 9th October 3:00pm(NZT)
The Australian dollar has had a strong week against the Euro and currently trades near its highs of .6440 (1.5528). Gains have been aided by positive key commodity price movements which impact the Australian economy, improving risk sentiment and less dovish RBA notes compared to those of the ECB. Further gains towards .6530 (1.5314) and .6550 (1.5267) now appear possible with first real support lying near .6345 (1.5760). Australian employment data and commodity price/risk sentiment developments will be key to moves next week.
The current interbank midrate is:    AUDEUR 0.6442    EURAUD 1.5523

The interbank range this week has been:    AUDEUR 0.6201 - 0.6444    EURAUD 1.5518 - 1.6127
Tuesday 6th October 2:00pm(NZT)
The Australian dollar has managed to outperform the Japanese Yen this week despite a sharp drop in the pair after US employment data on Friday. That dip was short lived and in the past the past 12 hours the cross has managed to break above initial resistance around 85.00. If the AUD can hold above 85.00 a broader move higher toward 87.00 should develop. The Japanese Yen is being weighed on by expectation of further easing action from the BOJ in the coming months. We have the Reserve Bank of Australia rate statement to digest this afternoon and if they maintain their neutral stance the AUD may well benefit. If however they signal a move toward an easing bias, the AUD will suffer. We also have the BOJ meeting to digest tomorrow although any potential easing from them is more likely at their 30th October meeting.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
AUD/YEN 85.35 85.00 87.00 82.85 - 85.50

Friday 2nd October 2:00pm(NZT)
The Australian dollar saw some relative weakness in the early stages of this week driving the cross to the Euro down to 0.6156 (up to 1.6245). Since then however, the Australian dollar has put in a solid performance. It was driven higher by Chinese manufacturing data which supported the AUD, and soft European inflation figures which pressured the EUR. The pair traded as high as 0.6352 (low 1.5743) last night before soft global stock markets eventually weighed on risk sentiment and capped the move. Attention now turns to this afternoon’s release of Australian retail sales data. A positive result here could see the pair target resistance around 0.6400 (support 1.5625) which has contained the market for much of the past five weeks. Tonight’s US employment data is also likely to add some volatility before the focus switches to Tuesday’s RBA rate statement. From Europe next week we have retails sales, services PMI, German factory orders, a speech by President Draghi and the ECB minutes.
The current interbank midrate is:    AUDEUR 0.6285    EURAUD 1.5911

The interbank range this week has been:    AUDEUR 0.6156 - 0.6352    EURAUD 1.5743 - 1.6243
Tuesday 29th Sept 3:00pm(NZT)
The Australian dollar has been under pressure from the Euro this past week and the pair is currently threatening to once again test level below 0.6200 (above resistance 1.6130). Over the past month the pair has been sub 0.6200 (above 1.6130) on a number of occasions, but each time the AUD has quickly rebounded. However, current sentiment is very negative toward the Australian dollar and that may make a quick recovery this time more difficult. We also have Chinese PMI data set for release on Thursday and this could easily weigh on the AUD further. Locally, we have Australian building approvals and retail sales data to digest over the coming days, while from Europe we have German retail sales and French consumer spending along with Eurozone inflation and unemployment.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
AUD/EURO 0.6195 0.6200 0.6400 0.6179 - 0.6409
EURO/AUD 1.6142 1.5625 1.6129 1.5604 - 1.6185

Friday 25th September 2:30pm(NZT)
The past month has seen trade in this pair contained within the broad parameters of 0.6200 and 0.6400 (1.5625 - 1.6130). Nothing this week has materially changed that outlook, although we did see a brief test to 0.6180 (1.6180) last night. A further decline in Chinese manufacturing PMI this week has only added to the increasingly negative Australian sentiment and this helped drive the AUD to last night’s low. The AUD quickly bounced however, and I’m looking for more of the same range trading action over the coming week. Next week from Australia we have building approvals and retail sales data to draw focus. While from Europe we have German retail sales, French consumer spending, inflation and unemployment data set for release.
The current interbank midrate is:    AUDEUR 0.6265    EURAUD 1.5962

The interbank range this week has been:    AUDEUR 0.6179 - 0.6409    EURAUD 1.5604 - 1.6185
Tuesday 22nd Sept 2:30pm(NZT)
The broad parameters of 0.6200 to 0.6400 (1.5625 - 1.6130) have largely contained this pair since late August and this week has been no exception. There does seem to be a slight AUD upside bias in recent days with levels around 0.6380 (1.5675) tested on repeated occasions. A break up through 0.6380/6400 (1.5625-1.5675) would open the way for gains toward 0.6540 (1.5290) From Australia this week we only have the house price index of any note, while from Europe we have manufacturing and service sector PMI’s to digest along with the German IFO business climate index and results of the targeted LTRO.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
AUD/EURO 0.6370 0.6200 0.6400 0.6267 - 0.6384
EURO/AUD 1.5699 1.5625 1.6129 1.5664 - 1.5956

Friday 18th September 2:50pm(NZT)
The Australian dollar has managed some gains against the Euro this week although they have come short of testing resistance around 0.6400(1.5625). We have seen some real volatility in the wake of this morning’s Fed statement which highs of 0.6382(1.5670) quickly giving way to lows of 0.6265(high1.5962). It was always going to be a volatile event and it didn’t disappoint. The cross has settled around the 0.6300 (1.5875) level for now and I would expect to see a gradual appreciation back toward 0.6400(1.5625) over the coming days. If we do see a period of AUD weakness it should be contained by support around 0.6200(resistance 1.6130) and this would likely provide a good AUD buying opportunity. Next week from Australia we have the house price index and the RBA’s financial stability review set for release. While from Europe we have manufacturing and service sector PMI’s, German IFO business climate, a speech from ECB President Draghi to digest.
The current interbank midrate is:    AUDEUR 0.6298    EURAUD 1.5878

The interbank range this week has been:    AUDEUR 0.6226 - 0.6384    EURAUD 1.5781 - 1.6174
Tuesday 15th Sept 1:30pm(NZT)
Gains in this pair over the past week have been driven by Australian dollar strength. The local currency has benefited from better employment data and a broad improvement in iron ore prices. In the past couple of hours the pair has traded up to initial resistance around 0.6340 (1.5775). I suspect the market may struggle to kick on from here, at least ahead of Thursday’s key US Fed meeting. After that meeting it could be a different story and we can expect some real volatility. For the time being however, with the AUD close to resistance on a number of crosses, further gains should prove tough. A pull back and period of consolidation ahead of Thursday morning seems likely.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
AUD/EURO 0.6330 0.6200 0.6400 0.6183 - 0.6337
EURO/AUD 1.5798 1.5625 1.6129 1.5781 - 1.6174

Friday 11th September 2:30pm(NZT)
It has been a week of choppy price action for this pairing, but little overall direction. Somewhat positively the AUD has rallied twice from below 0.6200 (above 1.6129) to test levels over 0.6300 (under 1.5873), but on each occasion the gains have not been sustained. The broader picture for the Australian dollar is starting to look a little more positive however, and this suggests we may yet see further attempts to recover the 0.6300 level (1.5873). If the pair can do that a move toward 0.6420 (1.5576) would likely unfold. A break below 0.6180 (above 1.6181) however, would quickly turn the outlook negative. Next week we have the RBA minutes set for release along with a speech from Governor Stevens to digest. While from Europe we get the ZEW economic sentiment index, industrial production and the final reading of inflation.
The current interbank midrate is:    AUDEUR 0.6265    EURAUD 1.5962

The interbank range this week has been:    AUDEUR 0.6183 - 0.6337    EURAUD 1.5781 - 1.6174
Tuesday 8st Sept 4:30pm(NZT)
A brief period of strength in this pair after last Thursday’s ECB meeting saw a high of 0.6349 (low 1.5750) trade, but since then the Australian dollar has largely underperformed. The sharp turnaround from that high, and subsequent decline back to 0.6200 (1.6130), keeps the focus for the AUD on the downside. This would certainly be in keeping with the longer term trend which has been negative since late April this year. We are unlikely to see a repeat of the scale of declines seen in recent weeks however, and price action should be choppy, but the downside continues to look like the path of least resistance. From Australia this week we have business confidence, consumer sentiment, inflation expectations and employment data to digest. While from Europe this week the mostly second tier data will only draw passing attention.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
AUD/EURO 0.6220 0.6200 0.6400 0.6183 - 0.6349
EURO/AUD 1.6077 1.5625 1.6129 1.5749 - 1.6173

Friday 4th September 1:00pm(NZT)
It has been a choppy week of trading for this pair. The Australian dollar has seen pressure on the back of soft GDP and retail sales data, but in the past 24 hours it has been the Euro’s turn to underperform. The ECB rate meeting last night seemed to lay the groundwork for a potential further easing by downgrading growth and inflation forecasts and signalling their willingness to act. As such the Euro came under heavy selling pressure and this helped drive the AUD cross back up over 0.6300(below 1.5875). With both the AUD and the EUR likely to remain broadly under pressure over the coming week, we may see this pair gyrating around between the parameters of 0.6200 and 0.6400(1.5625 - 1.6130). Next week from Australia we have business confidence, consumer sentiment, inflation expectations and employment data to digest. While from Europe the economic calendar looks pretty light.
The current interbank midrate is:    AUDEUR 0.6295    EURAUD 1.5886

The interbank range this week has been:    AUDEUR 0.6193 - 0.6417    EURAUD 1.5584 - 1.6146
Tuesday 1st Sept 4:30pm(NZT)
After losing significant ground to the Euro in the very early stages of last week, the Australian dollar managed a decent recovery trading back up over 0.6400 heading into the weekend. Those gains couldn’t be sustained however and in the past couple of days the pair has once again seen pressure. For now the risks remain skewed to the downside and a test back toward 0.6200. The Reserve Bank of Australia’s interest rate meeting this afternoon provides the immediate focus, then later in the week we get GDP, retail sales and the trade balance data. In Europe this week we have the ECB meeting on Thursday night which will draw plenty of attention.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
AUD/EURO 0.6325 0.6200 0.6400 0.6144 - 0.6417
EURO/AUD 1.5810 1.5625 1.6129 1.5584 - 1.6277

Friday 28th August 3:00pm(NZT)
We have seen some very interesting price action in this pairing over the past week. Wider market risk aversion in the early stages caused a dramatic fall with the Euro seeing appreciation while the Australian dollar saw depreciation. Since that market meltdown however, the AUD has staged a solid recovery and we are now back at levels where we started the week. This is a very positive recovery and it does raise doubts about any further AUD downside in the very near term. The market may well try to extend the gains toward minor resistance around 0.6530 (1.5320 support). That level should provide a tough Australian dollar topside barrier. From Australia next week we have building approvals, the RBA rate meeting, GDP, retail sales and the trade balance to digest. While in Europe the focus will be on the European Central Bank's interest rate meeting on Thursday.
The current interbank midrate is:    AUDEUR 0.6402    EURAUD 1.5620

The interbank range this week has been:    AUDEUR 0.6083 - 0.6535    EURAUD 1.5302 - 1.6440
Tuesday 25th Aug 7:30pm(NZT)
We have seen significant falls for this pairing in recent days as broad ‘risk off’ sentiment swept the market. The Euro has been one of the biggest winners in all the volatility as the unwinding of long term positions has resulted in buying of the single currency. The Australian dollar on the other hand has seen pressure on the increasingly negative Chinese outlook. The cross traded down below 0.6200 (above 1.6130) for a time last night before recovering. For the time being the risks remain skewed to the AUD downside. These are very uncertain times however and extra caution is advised. 0.6100 to 0.6300 (1.5875 - 1.6400) looks like a likely range for the near term, although that may prove way too narrow in the current climate.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
AUD/EURO 0.6210 0.6100 0.6300 0.6083 - 0.6669
EURO/AUD 1.6103 1.5873 1.6393 1.5005 - 1.6440

Thursday 20th Aug 1:30pm (NZT)
It has been mostly sideways action for this pairing over the past week after the sharp AUD declines seen in the week prior. The move looks like a period of consolidation within the broader Australian dollar downtrend and as such the risks remain toward further AUD weakness at some stage. Only a break through key resistance now seen around 0.6710 (support 1.4905) would bring that outlook into question. Tomorrow night from Europe we get manufacturing and service sector PMI data, the next week the focus will turn to the German IFO business climate index along with Spanish and German inflation. While in Australia next week the focus will be on private capital expenditure data set for release on Thursday.
The current interbank midrate is:    AUDEUR 0.6605    EURAUD 1.5140

The interbank range this week has been:    AUDEUR 0.6581 - 0.6669    EURAUD 1.4994 - 1.5196
Tuesday 18th Aug 1:30pm(NZT)
This pair remains trapped within a broad AUD downtrend that started toward the end of April. Fresh cycle lows traded last week, albeit briefly, in the wake of the Chinese Yuan devaluation announcements. We have seen a Australian dollar bounce since then, but it is yet to test key downtrend resistance now seen around 0.6720 (support 1.4881). Until that level is overcome the risks remain skewed toward further AUD weakness. The markets immediate focus is now on the Reserve Bank of Australia’s minutes set for release in the coming hours. These should confirm the bank remains very much in the neutral camp. European data to watch out for this week all comes on Friday in the form of manufacturing and service sector PMI’s.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
AUD/EURO 0.6650 0.6530 0.6720 0.6536 - 0.6744
EURO/AUD 1.5038 1.4881 1.5314 1.4829 - 1.5299

Friday 14th Aug 1:00pm(NZT)
One of the big winners out of the volatility caused by the surprise Chinese announcement to devalue the Yuan has been the Euro. It seems the unwinding of carry trades is supporting the Euro and it has made across the board gains. As such the AUDEUR cross has lost ground this week, briefly trading to fresh cycle lows at 0.6536 (highs at 1.5300 EURAUD). We have seen a small bounce from those AUD lows, but the risks remain skewed to the downside for now. Key long term downtrend resistance now comes in around 0.6745 (support around 1.4826) and as long as the market holds below that level further losses are expected. From Australia next week the focus will be on the RBA’s minutes set for release on Tuesday. From Europe we have the final reading of inflation along with the latest GDP data to digest tonight. Then next week attention will turn to manufacturing and service sector PMI’s.
The current interbank midrate is:    AUDEUR 0.6610    EURAUD 1.5129

The interbank range this week has been:    AUDEUR 0.6536 - 0.6783    EURAUD 1.4742 - 1.5299
Tuesday 11th Aug 2:30pm(NZT)
After seeing the AUD jumping higher on Tuesday last week in the wake of the RBA rate statement, this pair has since consolidated those gains trading around the 0.6740 (1.4837) level. I would expect to see another test toward, and potentially over, 0.6800 (under 1.4705) develop over the coming days. Minor support now seen around 0.6700 (resistance 1.4925) is key. As long as the market holds above there the risks are skewed toward further AUD strength. Commodity prices have also staged a small recovery in the early stages of this week and if that continues it will also underwrite further AUD upside. From Australia this week we get business confidence, consumer sentiment, the wage price index and inflation expectations. While from Europe we have the ZEW economic sentiment index, GDP data, and the final reading of inflation
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
AUD/EURO 0.6734 0.6600 0.6800 0.6637 - 0.6788
EURO/AUD 1.4850 1.4706 1.5152 1.4733 - 1.5066

Friday 7th August 11:40am (NZT)
It has been a good week for the AUD, with the positive economic news coupling with a less dovish RBA. These drivers saw the AUD outperform the EUR, although there was never really a serious test of resistance at .6800 (support 1.4700). From there the pair has settled back into a far more comfortable zone around the current levels. Look to see the wider trading band of .6600 -.6800 (1.4700 - 1.5150) contain the trading in the short term. Next week the Australian consumer sentiment and wage price index numbers provide some focus ahead of the important European Inflation and preliminary GDP numbers on Friday. Target either extreme of the wider trading band should provide good value with those with the luxury of time with their transfers.
The current interbank midrate is:    AUDEUR 0.6721    EURAUD 1.4879

The interbank range this week has been:    AUDEUR 0.6594 - 0.6788    EURAUD 1.4733 - 1.5166
Tuesday 4th Aug 1:30pm(NZT)
There has been little overall direction in this pairing over the past week. Both the Australian dollar and the Euro have been broadly under pressure and as such the cross has drifted sideways after bouncing from fresh cycle AUD lows at 0.6547 (highs at 1.5274) this time last week. The longer term trend is certainly to the  Australian dollar downside and the failure to recover above 0.6700 (under 1.4925) in recent days keeps the focus firmly on lower levels. However, we do have a number of key releases out in the coming days that could easily influence. Australian retail sales will be followed by the RBA rate statement this afternoon. Then on Thursday Australian employment data is set to hit the wires. While in Europe attention will turn to service sector PMI’s, retail sales and German factory orders. The key levels to watch are support toward 0.6500 and resistance around 0.6700. (1.5385 and 1.4925)
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
AUD/EURO 0.6645 0.6500 0.6700 0.6547 - 0.6682
EURO/AUD 1.5049 1.4925 1.5385 1.4965 - 1.5274

Friday 31st July 2:00pm(NZT)
After trading to fresh cycle lows at 0.6547 (high 1.5275) in the early stages of this week, the Australian dollar has managed a significant bounce. This bounce is merely corrective however, within the context of the longer term AUD downtrend that is still firmly in play. Downtrend resistance comes in around 0.6800 (support 1.4705) and selling into any periods of strength toward that level is recommended. From Australia next week we have retail sales, the RBA rate meeting, the trade balance and employment data all set for release. While from Europe we have a number of regional PMI’s to digest as well as German factory orders.
The current interbank midrate is:    AUDEUR 0.6670    EURAUD 1.4993

The interbank range this week has been:    AUDEUR 0.6547 - 0.6700    EURAUD 1.4924 - 1.5273
Tuesday 28th July 3:00pm(NZT)
It has been one way traffic for this pair over the past week. The EUR has made significant gains, particularly in recent days, as short (sold) positions get squeezed out. Better than forecast German IFO Business Climate data last night only added to the waves of EUR buying that were seen as ‘risk off’ sentiment swept the market on the back of further falls in Chinese stocks. The Australian dollar on the other hand has only seen pressure on the back of soft commodities and poor Chinese data. Sentiment was then dealt another blow with Chinese stock collapsing another 8.5% yesterday. As a result of this pair has been one of the worst performing currency pairs over the past week.(EURAUD one of the best performing) Although we could easily see a corrective AUD  bounce in the near term, the longer term trend is firmly to the downside and as such any periods of strength will eventually run into willing AUD sellers.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
AUD/EURO 0.6560 0.6500 0.6700 0.6551 - 0.6820
EURO/AUD 1.5244 1.4925 1.5385 1.4663 - 1.5266

Friday 24th July 1:30pm(NZT)
The Australian dollar has lost ground this week to a resurgent Euro. It’s hard to say what has driven the Euro gains with little in the way of key data or releases from the region this week. For the time being the risks are skewed to the AUD downside and this will remain the case while the pair holds below 0.6850 (above 1.4600). Only a move through that level will alleviate the immediate AUD downside pressure. From Australia next week we have building approvals, import prices and producer prices data. While from Europe we have manufacturing and service sector PMI’s tonight, followed next week by German IFO business climate, German retail sales, German consumer climate, Eurozone inflation and Eurozone unemployment.
The current interbank midrate is:    AUDEUR 0.6693    EURAUD 1.4941

The interbank range this week has been:    AUDEUR 0.6690 - 0.6820    EURAUD 1.4663 - 1.4949
Tuesday 21th July 5:00pm(NZT)
The Australian dollar has managed to outperform the Euro this past week, thanks largely to weakness in the Euro. Over the past few days minor support around 0.6770 (resistance around 1.4771) has contained the downside and while that remains the case a broader recovery toward 0.6950 (1.4388) could well unfold. We have the RBA minutes set for release in the next hour, then tomorrow we have Australian inflation data to digest, followed by a speech from Governor Stevens. From Europe this week we have manufacturing and service sector PMI’s along with Spanish unemployment to digest.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
AUD/EURO 0.6815 0.6700 0.6950 0.6708 - 0.6825
EURO/AUD 1.4674 1.4380 1.4925 1.4653 - 1.4907

Friday 17th July 1:30pm(NZT)
The Australian dollar has made gains against the Euro this week in what has been choppy trading. The AUD did get dragged lower for a time, along with all commodity currencies, in the wake of the interest rate cut by the Canadian central bank. But broad based Euro weakness prevailed and this saw the pair quickly recover back up over 0.6800 (under 1.4706). The Euro has seen no benefit from the agreement between Greece and its creditors, largely because in its current form the deal only takes care of near term risks. Longer term, Greece’s financial stability is precarious as ever. A range of 0.6750 to 0.6950 (1.4815 to 1.4388) may well define trading next week when from Australia we have the minutes from the last Reserve Bank of Australia meeting to draw focus, along with the latest reading on inflation. While from Europe next week we have manufacturing and service PMI’s to digest along with Spanish unemployment.
The current interbank midrate is:    AUDEUR 0.6815    EURAUD 1.4674

The interbank range this week has been:    AUDEUR 0.6638 - 0.6825    EURAUD 1.4653 - 1.5064
Tuesday 14th July 4:00pm(NZT)
With Greece and the Euro very much in focus recently we have seen some good volatility on all Euro crosses. The Euro surged late last week on hopes of a deal being reached and this caused fresh cycle lows at 0.6638 (1.5065 highs) to trade. There has been a sharp turnaround from those lows however, as the eventual agreement reached in the past 24 hours does little to secure Greece long term financial future. The Euro has therefore seen pressure and as such this cross has recovered back toward 0.6750 (1.4815). There is a fair amount of resistance between 0.6750 and 0.6800 (1.4705 - 1.4815) and as such the cross should start to struggle in that area. The immediate focus is on the Greek parliament now and it’s urgent need to pass reforms into law by Wednesday night. From Australia this week we have business confidence, consumer sentiment and inflation expectations to digest.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
AUD/EURO 0.6745 0.6650 0.6850 0.6638 - 0.6898
EURO/AUD 1.4826 1.4599 1.5038 1.4710 - 1.5066

Friday 10th July 3:30pm(NZT)
Both the Australian dollar and the Euro have been under pressure this week. The Australian dollar has however underperformed as weakness in Chinese stocks and commodity prices weighed heavily. We have seen a bounce from recent lows helped by yesterday’s better than forecast employment data, but the pair is still lower than where it started the week. If minor resistance around 0.6770 (support 1.4775) can be overcome the pair could easily head back toward 0.6900 (1.4490). This weekend will prove key for Greece and as such developments there will once again be in focus. We can expect further volatility in the early stages of next week. From Australia next week to draw attention we get business confidence, consumer sentiment and inflation expectations data.
The current interbank midrate is:    AUDEUR 0.6745    EURAUD 1.4826

The interbank range this week has been:    AUDEUR 0.6683 - 0.6895    EURAUD 1.4504 - 1.4962
Tuesday 7th July 2:30pm(NZT)
This pair has lost significant ground over the past week, driven lower by weakness in the Australian dollar. The Euro itself has been surprisingly calm in the face of recent events. We have certainly seen volatility but, not the broad based decline many had predicted. An eventual outcome to the Greek crisis is far from certain so there is still plenty of potential for further volatility, but for now AUD underperformance is the overriding theme. Disappointing Australian data and renewed declines in iron ore prices have done the damage to the local currency and the risks remain to the downside for now. Today’s RBA rate statement provides the immediate focus, then on Thursday we have Australian employment data. In Europe it is still all about Greece with economic data taking a back seat for now.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
AUD/EURO 0.6782 0.6750 0.6950 0.6760 - 0.6949
EURO/AUD 1.4745 1.4388 1.4815 1.4390 - 1.4792

Thursday 2nd July 2:30pm(NZT)
It has been a volatile week of trading in the Euro, and with no resolution yet in terms of Greece we can expect more of the same ahead. This weekend’s referendum may well hold the key to whether Greece stays in, or leaves, the currency union. As such it’s extremely difficult to predict where the cross may trade next week. The broad parameters of 0.6800 to 0.7000 (1.4285 - 1.4705) have contained the pair for the past month and that provides the initial levels to watch out for on any big move. Next week when from Australia we also have the RBA rate statement and employment change numbers set for release.
The current interbank midrate is:    AUDEUR 0.6911    EURAUD 1.4470

The interbank range this week has been:    AUDEUR 0.6829 - 0.6981    EURAUD 1.4324 - 1.4644
Tuesday 30th June 2:00pm(NZT)
Greece, and the Euro, have taken centre stage since the weekend’s surprise announcement about a referendum on the bailout package. The Euro has seen some big ranges trade and it seems likely we are very far away from any finality on the issue. The market will remain nervous in the meantime and further volatility is expected. The levels of 0.6800 to 0.7000 (1.4285 - 1.4705) look likely to provide the initial parameters on the week, although making any predictions in the current environment is fraught with danger. The Australian dollar will also be keeping one eye on the Chinese stock market which saw dramatic losses late last week. These pressured the AUD heading into the weekend and although the policy easing’s by the People’s Bank of China may help in the near term, Chinese stocks remain vulnerable.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
AUD/EURO 0.6850 0.6800 0.6930 0.6807 - 0.6981
EURO/AUD 1.4599 1.4430 1.4706 1.4324 - 1.4691

Friday 26th June 2:00pm(NZT)
With the Australian dollar largely treading water recently, movements in this pairing have been driven by the Euro. Weeks of Greek negotiations have seen swings back and forth in the value of the EUR as headlines suggest potential for a deal or not. It seems the market has finally grown tired of trying to guess just what the outcome of negotiations will be, and the past 24 hours has seen much smaller ranges trade. We are however, running out of time with Greece due to make a payment to the IMF of EUR 1.6bn at the end of the month. Without the release of further bailout funds Greece has no money to make this payment. So the coming week could very well see significant volatility return to the Euro and the wider market in general. European data will once again be side lined by Greek developments. While from Australia next week we have a speech from Governor Stevens to digest along with building approvals, trade balance and retail sales data.
The current interbank midrate is:    AUDEUR 0.6905    EURAUD 1.4482

The interbank range this week has been:    AUDEUR 0.6791 - 0.6941    EURAUD 1.4407 - 1.4726
Tuesday 23th June 2:30pm(NZT)
We have seen choppy price action in this pair over the past three weeks, but little overall direction. Greek negotiations continue to be the focus in Europe and some positive signals from officials last night saw the EUR outperform. The next couple of days will be critical however, as time is rapidly running out to reach an agreement on the release of badly needed bailout funds. Support for the pair comes in around 0.6780 (resistance 1.4750) while on the topside 0.6930 (support 1.4430) should cap any potential AUD strength in the near term. There is little on the economic calendar from Australia this week to draw attention and so offshore events will dominate. To that end from Europe, aside from continued Greek negotiations, we get manufacturing and service PMI data along with German business climate and consumer confidence indicators.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
AUD/EURO 0.6812 0.6730 0.6930 0.6786 - 0.6920
EURO/AUD 1.4680 1.4430 1.4859 .4451 - 1.4737

Thursday 17th June 2:00pm(NZT)
The Australian dollar has lost a little ground to the Euro this week although the pair remains within the broad 0.6780 to 0.6940 (1.4749 to 1.4409) range that has contained it for the past two weeks. There is plenty of potential for volatility in the Euro with time running out for a Greek deal to be reached. That makes predicting near term direction a very tough call.  Tonight we have the Eurogroup finance ministers meeting and next week from Europe we get manufacturing and service PMI data along with the German IFO business climate index. There is little to get excited about from Australia next week so offshore events will likely dominate.
The current interbank midrate is:    AUDEUR 0.6803    EURAUD 1.4699

The interbank range this week has been:    AUDEUR 0.6803 - 0.6926    EURAUD 1.4438 - 1.4700
Tuesday 16th June 2:30pm(NZT)
The Australian dollar has managed to outperform the Euro this week, trading up to resistance around 0.6930 (support around 1.4430). However, that level has capped the market so far and the failure to overcome it leaves the near term picture a little less positive. We could easily see the pair drift back towards 0.6800 (1.4706) over the coming days. If the 0.6930 (1.4430) level is overcome the market will run into more resistance at 0.6980 (support at 1.4327). The immediate focus now turns to the RBA minutes set for release in the next hour. Attention will then turn to Europe where we have  ZEW economic sentiment, the final reading of inflation and the Eurogroup finance ministers meetings to digest over the coming days.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
AUD/EURO 0.6890 0.6800 0.6930 0.6772 - 0.6926
EURO/AUD 1.4514 1.4430 1.4706 1.4438 - 1.4766

Friday 12th June 2:00pm(NZT)
After trading to recent cycle lows against the Euro at 0.6772 (highs 1.4766) this week, the Australian dollar has managed something of a recovery. It currently sits around 0.6900 (1.4490) and we could easily see a test of resistance around 0.6930 (1.4430) or even 0.6980 (1.4325) over the coming days. The bounce in the Australian dollar has been aided by some better than forecast economic data, the highlight of which was employment change released yesterday. European data has also been encouraging, however the protracted Greek negotiations are limiting potential Euro gains. The outcome of those negotiations remains the biggest risk factor to and forecast for the pair. From Europe next week we have ZEW economic sentiment, the final reading of inflation, and a speech from ECB President Draghi to draw focus. While from Australia we just have the RBA minutes to digest on Tuesday.
The current interbank midrate is:    AUDEUR 0.6886    EURAUD 1.4522

The interbank range this week has been:    AUDEUR 0.6772 - 0.6900    EURAUD 1.4492 - 1.4766
Tuesday 9th June 2:00pm(NZT)
The Australian dollar has remained under pressure from the Euro this past week and currently trades close to cycle lows. Improving data out of Europe has contrasted with some disappointing Australian results to see the AUD underperform. Minor support around 0.6800 (resistance 1.4710) has so far contained the AUD downside, but it looks likely to come under increasing pressure. Through that level and the market will target 0.6720 then 0.6650 (1.4880 then 1.5040). From Australia we have business confidence out this afternoon, then later in the week we get consumer sentiment and employment change data along with a speech from Governor Stevens. With little in the way of key data from Europe this week, the Greek situation will continue to draw focus and we should be mindful of the potential for a sharp move in the Euro one way to the other when a deal is finally reached.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
AUD/EURO 0.6818 0.6800 0.7000 0.6797 - 0.7038
EURO/AUD 1.4667 1.4286 1.4706 1.4208 - 1.4713

Friday 5th June 1:00pm(NZT)
The Euro has been extremely volatile this week, making sharp gains against most other currencies. A number of factors have driven these gains. Improving data on inflation and other indicators suggests a continued gradual improvement in Eurozone economic conditions. This combined with a big move higher in German long term interest rates, and early optimism around a Greek deal, to underpin the Euro. Some of that optimism about a Greek deal was undone last night after Greece confirmed they are going to delay a payment due today to the IMF. This has seen the EUR give back some of its gains, although it’s still significantly higher than where it started the week. The Australian dollar managed to match Euro gains in the first half of the week driven by better than expected GDP data and a lack of interest rate guidance from the RBA. This saw the cross ranging round 0.6980 (1.4327), but in recent days disappointing Australian data has seen sharp losses with the pair trading down to just under 0.6800 (over 1.4706) last night. With the Greek situation still very fragile and no agreement as yet, we can expect further volatility next week. From Australia we have business confidence, consumer sentiment, inflation expectations and employment change all set for release.
The current interbank midrate is:    AUDEUR 0.6857    EURAUD 1.4584

The interbank range this week has been:    AUDEUR 0.6797 - 0.7038    EURAUD 1.4208 - 1.4713
Tuesday 2nd June 2:30pm(NZT)
The Euro has significantly outperformed the Australian dollar over the past week. Improving data out of Europe has helped the Euro, although the market is fully aware of the potential risks around the ongoing Greek negotiations. The coming week could easily see an outcome one way or another from those protracted talks and this provides the biggest risk to any forecast. On the Australian dollar side of the equation, the currency has seen continued pressure in the wake of disappointing private capital expenditure data and this help drive the pair to its 0.6952 low (1.4384 high). Attention now turns to the outcome of the RBA meeting this afternoon. Although no rate cut is expected today, many forecasters now believe we will see another one before the end of the year. Later in the week from Australia we have GDP, retails sales, and trade balance data to draw focus. While from Europe this week we have service sector PMI’s, Eurozone inflation and retails sales data to digest, along with the ECB interest rate meeting.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
AUD/EURO 0.6985 0.6900 0.7100 0.6952 - 0.7169
EURO/AUD 1.4316 1.4085 1.4493 1.3949 - 1.4385

Friday 29th May 2:00pm(NZT)
The first half of this week saw the Australian dollar make some gains against the Euro with the cross touching a high of 0.7169 (low of 1.3949). The pair has fallen sharply from that high however thanks in large part to very disappointing data on Australian private capital expenditure released yesterday. This was exactly what the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) did not want to see as they’re trying hard to stimulate investment from the non-mining sector. The implications of this are potentially lower growth, weaker employment and an increased likelihood of another rate cut from the RBA. Those factors have weighed on the local currency in the past 24 hours, and the risks remain skewed to the downside. There is minor support around 0.6970 (resistance around 1.4347) and then below there again at 0.6920 (1.4451). The biggest risk to the near term negative outlook comes from Greece’s current negotiations with its creditors. The outcome of those negotiations has the potently to send the Euro significantly higher or lower, and it could come out of the blue at any time in the next week or two. From Australia next week we have building approvals, GDP, trade balance data, and an RBA rate meeting to digest. While from Europe we get manufacturing and services sector PMI’s, inflation, Eurozone retail sales and the ECB rate statement.
The current interbank midrate is:    AUDEUR 0.6985    EURAUD 1.4316

The interbank range this week has been:    AUDEUR 0.6974 - 0.7169    EURAUD 1.3949 - 1.4338
Tuesday 26th May 2:00pm(NZT)
The Australian dollar has managed some gains against the Euro this week. Trading conditions have been choppy however with periods of weakness in both currencies causing volatility. The Euro has however underperformed with continuing concern about the lack of progress toward a Greek deal. Look for 0.7000 to 0.7200 (1.4286 to 1.3889) to contain trade again this week. From Australia over the coming days we have private capital expenditure and construction work done data, along with a speech from RBA deputy governor Lowe. While from Europe we have German consumer climate, German retail sales, French consumer spending and Spanish CPI to digest.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
AUD/EURO 0.7135 0.7000 0.7200 0.7042 - 0.7143
EURO/AUD 1.4015 1.3889 1.4286 1.4000 - 1.4200

Friday 22nd May 2:00pm(NZT)
The Australian dollar has made gains against the Euro this week, driven largely by weakness in the Euro. The Euro saw a sharp bout of pressure on Tuesday evening after an ECB official suggested the central bank may ‘frontload’ its asset purchase programme ahead of the summer period which traditionally sees lower levels of liquidity. That drove the cross up over 0.7100 (down under 1.4085) for a time and since then we have seen largely sideways trade around the 0.7100 level (1.4085). Direction from here is a tough call and we will most probably see further ranging between support around 0.7000 and resistance around 0.7200 (resistance at 1.4286 and support at 1.3889). From Australia next week we get data on construction work done along with private capital expenditure. While in Europe ECB President Draghi is due to speak tonight and we also have the release of the German IFO business climate index. Next week we get German consumer climate, French consumer spending, Spanish inflation and private loans data.
The current interbank midrate is:    AUDEUR 0.7110    EURAUD 1.4065

The interbank range this week has been:    AUDEUR 0.7005 - 0.7143    EURAUD 1.4000 - 1.4276
Tuesday 19th May 1:00pm(NZT)
A strong run by the Australian dollar in the first half of last week saw this pair trade up to 0.7185 (down to 1.3918). Since then however the AUD has drifted lower with the pair eventually bouncing from just above 0.7000 (below 1.4286) in the past 12 hours. The immediate focus now turns to the RBA minutes out in the next couple of hours. These could provide some volatility for the AUD as the market tries to gauge the potential for another rate cut. Later in the week from Australia we have inflation expectations and consumer sentiment data to digest. From Europe this week we have manufacturing and service PMI data along with German ZEW economic sentiment and IFO business climate index. Expect the range of 0.7000 to 0.7200 (1.4286 to 1.3389) to continue to dominate this pair over the rest of the week.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
AUD/EURO 0.7060 0.7000 0.7200 0.7005 - 0.7185
EURO/AUD 1.4164 1.3889 1.4286 1.3917 - 1.4276

Friday 15th May 1:30pm(NZT)
The Australian dollar made solid gains against the Euro in the first half of the week taking the pair all the way up to 0.7185. In the past 48 hours however the Euro itself has seen a substantial increase in demand and this has caused some choppy price action around 0.7120 to develop. Direction from here is a tough call with volatile trading between 0.7000 and 0.7200 likely to persist. Next week from Australia to drive rates we have the Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes, along with consumer sentiment and inflation expectations data. While from Europe we have German ZEW economic sentiment data, manufacturing PMI, the final reading of inflation and the German IFO business climate index to digest.
The current interbank midrate is:    AUDEUR 0.7067    EURAUD 1.4150

The interbank range this week has been:    AUDEUR 0.6998 - 0.7185    EURAUD 1.3917 - 1.4290
Tuesday 12th May 1:00pm(NZT)
The past week has seen choppy trading for this pair as both currencies have seen periods of relative strength and weakness. In recent days the Australian dollar has managed to grind out some gains over the Euro testing the 0.7100 (1.4085) level last night. Momentum on the move is far from encouraging however, and the pair may well struggle to overcome resistance around 0.7130 (support around 1.4025). The most likely scenario is a further period of ranging between that level and 0.6960 on the downside (1.4368 on the topside). Greek developments will continue to draw focus in Europe with some sort of outcome likely in the next couple of week. If only because Greece will have by then completely run out of money. Tonight from Australian we have the annual budget release and tomorrow we get the wage price index.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
AUD/EURO 0.7085 0.6960 0.7130 0.6969 - 0.7128
EURO/AUD 1.4114 1.4025 1.4368 1.4028 - 1.4350

Friday 8th May 1:30pm(NZT)
The Australian dollar is currently trading close to where it started the week against the Euro, although we have seen significant volatility between now and then. It seems the market was caught very short (sold) Australian dollars heading into the RBA interest rate decision and even though the central bank cut rates by 0.25% the AUD ended up significantly higher. The Australian dollar has given back some of those gains in the past 48 hours and this has helped to dive the cross back toward 0.7020 (1.4245). The EUR itself has gained some support this week from improving data and an increased expectation that a Greek deal will eventually be reached. Downside support comes in around 0.6930 (resistance around 1.4430) and this hasn’t come close to be threatened this week. On the AUD topside, resistance around 0.7130 (support around 1.40250 capped gains in the middle of the week and should continue to provide a tough barrier to overcome.
The current interbank midrate is:    AUDEUR 0.7015    EURAUD 1.4255

The interbank range this week has been:    AUDEUR 0.6967 - 0.7128    EURAUD 1.4028 - 1.4353
Tuesday 5th May 2:00pm(NZT)
After testing resistance just over 0.7300 (1.3700 support) early last week, this pairing has seen a very sharp turnaround. The move has been driven by a combination of strength in the Euro and weakness in the AUD. Pressure on the AUD increased throughout last week as expectations grew for a rate cut from the RBA after today’s meeting. That decision hits the wires later this afternoon and is the main risk factor on the week. Most in the market expect an interest rate cut, but they have expected that for the past two meetings and been disappointed each time. If we do get a cut a move toward support just ahead of 0.6900 (resistance 1.4495) should unfold. That level may contain the AUD downside and as such I wouldn’t get carried away expecting a move through there. Later in the week from Australia we have retail sales and employment data to digest, while the focus in Europe will be on services PMI, retails sales, German factory orders and French industrial production.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
AUD/EURO 0.7030 0.6900 0.7100 0.6967 - 0.7310
EURO/AUD 1.4225 1.4085 1.4493 1.3680 - 1.4353

Friday 1st May 2:45pm(NZT)
The first half of this week saw the Australian dollar remain supported on the back of improving iron ore prices and increasing doubt about an interest rate cut from the RBA next week. These factors helped to drive this pair up to its 0.7310 high (low 1.3680). We have seen a sharp turnaround from there however, that was accentuated by an article in a Sydney newspaper that suggested the RBA will indeed cut interest rates next week. This caused the AUD to come under all sorts of pressure in the past 24 hours and has seen the pair trade to the week's low at 0.7029(high 1.4225). That RBA meeting on Tuesday will be the main focus for the market, and will the result too close to call, we should get a decent reaction in the AUD either way. Initial topside resistance come in around 0.7130 (support 1.4025), while on the downside there is support around 0.6920(resistance 1.4450). From Europe next week we have manufacturing and service PMI data, retails sales, industrial production and German factory orders to digest.
The current interbank midrate is:    AUDEUR 0.7032    EURAUD 1.4221

The interbank range this week has been:    AUDEUR 0.7029 - 0.7310    EURAUD 1.3680 - 1.4227
Tuesday 28th Apr 3:30pm(NZT)
This pair remains trapped in a sideways range just below recent highs. 0.7130 to 0.7260 (1.3775 - 1.4025) has contained trading for the past week. There doesn’t look to be much on the economic calendar to cause a break out over the coming days. We do have import prices, private sector credit, and producer prices data from Australia to digest this week, but the market is already focused on next week RBA meeting as being a key potential driver. From Europe this week we have inflation, unemployment, German retail sales, French consumer spending, and Spanish GDP, but the market remains focused on the never-ending Greeks saga as a potential default draws ever closer.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
AUD/EURO 0.7235 0.7130 0.7330 0.7155 - 0.7256
EURO/AUD 1.3822 1.3643 1.4025 1.3781 - 1.3977

Friday 24th Apr 2:00pm(NZT)
We have seen a choppy week for this pairing with prices gyrating back and forth between 0.7160 and 0.7260 (1.3966 and 1.3774). RBA Governor Stevens did his best to talk the Australian dollar down, but his efforts were undone by a stronger than expected Australian inflation result. Mixed data out of Europe has also failed to provide much needed direction while Greece’s situation remains a key focus. We can expect more of the same heading into next week when we will hear from Governor Stevens again ahead of Australian producer prices data. From Europe we get inflation and unemployment data and the usual Greek headlines.
The current interbank midrate is:    AUDEUR 0.7193    EURAUD 1.3902

The interbank range this week has been:    AUDEUR 0.7163 - 0.7257    EURAUD 1.3780 - 1.3961
Tuesday 21st Apr 3:30pm(NZT)
The Australian dollar traded up just shy of 0.7300 Euros (1.3700) late last week on the back of better than expected employment data. Since then we have seen a significant pullback helped by comments from RBA Governor Stevens last night. He did a good job of talking the currency down and as such the AUD fell and the pair is now back at 0.7170 (1.3950). On a longer term basis these are still very elevated levels for the AUD and with EUR under broad pressure on the back of Greek uncertainty and ECB quantitative easing, we are unlikely to see a significant pullback. Australian inflation data tomorrow will draw focus, as will Eurozone data later in the week in the form of German economic sentiment, IFO business climate, manufacturing PMI and service sector PMI.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
AUD/EURO 0.7170 0.7130 0.7330 0.7135 - 0.7296
EURO/AUD 1.3947 1.3643 1.4025 1.3707 - 1.4016

Friday 17th Apr 1:00pm(NZT)
This pair has seen relentless gains recently, interrupted only by a period of Australian dollar weakness on the back of soft Chinese trade data. That data caused a pullback to the week’s low of 0.7135 (high of 1.4015), but the Australian dollar has recovered sharply since then thanks to much better than forecast employment data. The pair is now comfortably back above 0.7200 (below 1.3889). Although data from Europe is showing the economy is on the mend, the Euro is remaining under pressure thanks to uncertainty about the Greek situation along with the ECB quantitative easing programme. These two factors will continue to weigh on the Euro over the coming weeks.
The current interbank midrate is:     AUDEUR 0.7228     EURAUD 1.3835

The interbank range this week has been:     AUDEUR 0.7135 - 0.7296     EURAUD 1.3707 - 1.4016
Tuesday 14th Apr 2:30pm(NZT)
Uncertainty around the Greek situation has kept pressure on the Euro and this helped to drive the cross up to a 0.7254 high (low 1.3785) at the end of last week. We did get a sharp AUD pullback from that level yesterday. This was driven by weakness in the Australian dollar in the wake of yesterday’s poor Chinese trade data, but the pair found support around 0.7150 (resistance 1.3986). At this stage is getting very hard to see any meaningful resolution to Greece’s financial situation, even if the current tranche of 7.2bln bailout funds released. This will continue to weigh on the Euro in the weeks, and potentially months, ahead. There are two key releases that could drive prices this week. On Wednesday night we have the ECB rate meeting and subsequent press conference, then on Thursday we have Australian employment data. If the market can hold above 0.7150 (below 1.3986) the risks will remain skewed toward further gains. A move below 0.7150 (above 1.3986) will open the way for a deeper correction that should target 0.7025 (1.4235).
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
AUD/EURO 0.7205 0.7050 0.7250 0.6929 - 0.7254
EURO/AUD 1.3879 1.3793 1.4184 1.3786 - 1.4432

Friday 10th Apr 1:45pm(NZT)
After struggling around the 0.6950 (1.4390) level in the early stages of this week, this pair has seen the AUD take off like a rocket. The initial move came on the back of Australian dollar strength thanks to stronger than forecast retails sales and a somewhat surprising ‘no change’ decision from the Reserve Bank. This drove the pair toward 0.7080 (1.4125) initially, but since then Euro weakness has seen a relentless rally develop. The Euro has been weighed on by Greek concerns and although Greece has just managed to make a payment due to the IMF yesterday, their financial state remains critical. It’s hard to say how much further this rally will go in the near term. The mid-March peak of 0.7290 (low 1.3720) looks like a viable target in the near term. Next week we have the European Central Bank rate meeting and the final reading of Euro inflation to draw focus. While from Australia next week we get the latest readings on business confidence, consumer sentiment, inflation expectations and unemployment change.
The current interbank midrate is:    AUDEUR 0.7230    EURAUD 1.3831

The interbank range this week has been:    AUDEUR 0.6924 - 0.7228    EURAUD 1.3836 - 1.4443
Thursday 2nd April 2:30pm(NZT)
The Australian dollar has traded heavily for much of this week weighed on by soft iron ore prices and expectations for another rate cut by the RBA on Tuesday. This has helped to dive the AUDEUR cross down below 0.7100 (EURAUD above 1.4085) and it is currently sitting just above the week’s low at 0.7052 (high at 1.4180). The immediate target is a test of support around 0.7030 (resistance around 1.4225). Economic data out of Europe has also supported the case for a lower cross, with a number of indicators showing gradual improvement. But for the time being the Greek situation is taking centre stage and the market will want to see some finality there before renewed Euro buying emerges. Next week’s data in the form of services PMI, German factory orders, and retails sales, will likely also take a back seat to Greek developments. While locally, attention will be on Tuesday’s RBA rate statement and retail sales data.
The current interbank midrate is:    AUDEUR 0.7058    EURAUD 1.4168

The interbank range this week has been:    AUDEUR 0.7052 - 0.7208    EURAUD 1.3874 - 1.4180
Tuesday 31st Mar 2:30pm(NZT)
This pair failed a number of times to hold onto gains over the 0.7200  (under 1.3890) level this past week, and with the AUD topside firmly capped, the path of least resistance was toward further AUD weakness. Gradually improving data out of Europe has helped the Euro a touch, but uncertainty around the Greek situation is limiting potential gains. A good portion of the pairs move has come on the back of Australian dollar weakness. The AUD has been weighed on by further falls in iron ore prices and general concerns about Chinese growth. The pair looks like it will test initial support around the 0.7030 (resistance 1.4225) level. Australian building consents and trade balance data over the coming days should only provide limited market impact. The market will be paying close attention to how the EU receives Greece reform proposal this week. If some sort of agreement is reached this to enable the release the next tranche of bailout funds to Greece, the Euro certainly has room to appreciate.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
AUD/EURO 0.7070 0.7030 0.7230 0.7053 - 0.7230
EURO/AUD 1.4144 1.3831 1.4225 1.3832 - 1.4178

Friday 27th Mar 1:30pm(NZT)
The overall level of this pair remains relatively unchanged from where it started the week, although this does mask some significant volatility seen, especially in the past 48 hours. Improving data out of Europe has lent some support to the Euro and this helped drive the pair down close to 0.7100 (up to 1.4085). A sharp AUD bounce from that level ensued and we are now once again around 0.7200 (down to 1.3890). With Europe's economic outlook somewhat brighter at the moment, I would expect to see the AUD continue to struggle to maintain gains over the 0.7200 (below 1.3890) level. Further investigation toward 0.7100 (1.4085) may well unfold over the coming week. From Australia next week we have private sector credit, building approvals, and the trade balance set for release. While from Europe we get data on inflation, unemployment, French consumer spending, German retail sales, along with manufacturing PMI’s from Spain and Italy.
The current interbank midrate is:    AUDEUR 0.7197    EURAUD 1.3895

The interbank range this week has been:    AUDEUR 0.7107 - 0.7238    EURAUD 1.3817 - 1.4070
Tuesday 24th Mar 12:30pm(NZT)
Although we have seen some volatility in this pair over the past week, the current level of this pair is close to where it was trading this time last Tuesday. We did see a sharp move up to 0.7240 (down to 1.3812) yesterday during a period of heightened AUD demand, but the gains were short lived. Key trend support around 0.7165 (resistance 1.3960) is the level to watch, and while above there the risks are skewed to further investigations higher for the AUD. However, a move below that level would encourage further Australian dollar selling and a significant pullback would likely unfold. The RBA’s Assistant Governor Edey is due to speak later this afternoon and tomorrow we have the RBA’s Financial Stability Review. While from Europe this week we have manufacturing and services sector PMI data, German IFO business climate, and German consumer climate readings to digest.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
AUD/EURO 0.7200 0.7165 0.7350 0.7126 - 0.7240
EURO/AUD 1.3889 1.3605 1.3957 1.3812 - 1.4032

Thursday 19th Mar 2:45pm(NZT)
After making fresh cycle highs against the Euro early in the week, the Australian dollar has seen a significant pullback. The RBA minutes largely confirmed market expectations for another rate cut over the coming months and this weighed on the Australian dollar to a degree. The Euro has also seen a mild improvement in data which has eased recent selling pressure on the currency. The combination of these factors caused the pair to trade to a low so far of 0.7126 (high of 1.4033). Although the immediate downside pressure has eased, a deeper pullback toward 0.7030 (1.4225) cannot be ruled out. That level should however contain any near term AUD weakness. Next week from the Eurozone we get manufacturing and service sector PMI data, along with the German IFO business climate index. While from Australia we only have the RBA Financial Stability Review set for release.
The current interbank midrate is:    AUDEUR 0.7165    EURAUD 1.3957

The interbank range this week has been:    AUDEUR 0.7126 - 0.7287    EURAUD 1.3723 - 1.4032
Tuesday 17th Mar 3:00pm(NZT)
The Australian dollar continued to make ground against the Euro last week trading to cycle highs at 0.7287(lows 1.3723). However, there are indicators that the AUD momentum is weakening and we could easily see a period of consolidation or a correction lower unfold. The RBA minutes are set for release this afternoon and the market is expecting this to confirm the bank remains on course to cut rates again over the coming months. If we do see a pullback, the initial target will be 0.7150 (1.3985). Any move below that level will open the way for a test of 0.7030(1.4225). Tonight we get German ZEW economic sentiment data and the final reading of Eurozone inflation. Later in the week the ECB economic bulletin and the EU economic summit will draw focus.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
AUD/EURO 0.7230 0.7150 0.7300 0.7072 - 0.7287
EURO/AUD 1.3831 1.3699 1.3986 1.3723 - 1.4140

Friday 13th Mar 12:30pm(NZT)
The Australian dollar has been relentlessly gaining ground against the Euro since early February. Those gains accelerated in the past 48 hours with the cross traded all the way up to 0.7273 (down to 1.3750). There is little to suggest an AUD top has been put in place and further gains are likely. The Euro is expected to remain under pressure over the coming months with quantitative easing by the ECB now in full swing, and rock bottom interest rates making it a very attractive currency to borrow in. Buying Australian dollars into any periods of weakness on the cross remains the favoured play. Next week from Europe we have inflation data, the ZEW economic sentiment index, and the ECB’s economic bulletin to draw focus. While from Australia we only have new vehicle sales, the RBA minutes, and the leading index to digest.
The current interbank midrate is:    AUDEUR 0.7250    EURAUD 1.3793

The interbank range this week has been:    AUDEUR 0.7046 - 0.7273    EURAUD 1.3749 - 1.4193
Tuesday 10th Mar 2:30pm(NZT)
Despite some improving economic data, the Euro has been under a lot of pressure recently. Concerns around Greece and the advent with the ECB’s EUR 1.1 trn quantitative easing programme have both weighted on the Euro, which traded to multi year lows across the board last week. Against the AUD this saw a high of 0.7158 (low of 1.3970) trade before a corrective pullback ensued. The trend at this point is firmly to the AUD topside and we could see a pullback as far as 0.7000 (1.4286) without threatening the broader uptrend. Buying into weakness ahead of that level is therefore recommended. From Australia this week we have consumer sentiment, inflation expectations, and employment change data to digest. While from Europe there are a number of speakers scheduled for this week along with data on French and Italian industrial production.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
AUD/EURO 0.7083 0.7000 0.7200 0.6934 - 0.7158
EURO/AUD 1.4118 1.3889 1.4286 1.3971 - 1.4421

Friday 6th Mar 2:00pm(NZT)
The Australian dollar has made significant gains against the Euro this week. The move started on Tuesday after the RBA left interest rates unchanged at their meeting. This boosted the local currency up toward the 0.7000 level (down toward 1.4286). Then, seemingly out of nowhere, came a serious bout of EUR weakness. The EUR fell to 11 year lows against the USD and this helped to drive the AUD up to its 0.7085 high (1.4114 low) against the EUR. While we have seen a small pullback from that high, the risks all remain skewed to further gains. Only a drop below 0.7000 (above 1.4286) would bring that into question. Next week from Australia we get business confidence, consumer sentiment, inflation expectations and employment change data. While from Europe we have French and Italian industrial production figures, German inflation and the Eurogroup meetings to digest.
The current interbank midrate is:    AUDEUR 0.7055    EURAUD 1.4174

The interbank range this week has been:    AUDEUR 0.6925 - 0.7085    EURAUD 1.4115 - 1.4441
Tuesday 3rd Mar 2:30pm(NZT)
The past few weeks have seen grinding AUD appreciation for this pair, although we may have seen a short term top put in place at 0.6986 (low in place at 1.4314). That level has capped the pair on two occasions over the past week. If the RBA cut interest rates this afternoon we should see a significant move to the AUD downside. That RBA decision will be the key event that drives prices over the coming days. It is a very close call whether they cut or not and as such there should be some significant volatility around the announcement. Later in the week from Australia we get GDP data, retail sales, and the trade balance. While from Europe this week we have retail sales, German factory orders, and the ECB rate meeting to draw focus.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
AUD/EURO 0.6940 0.6800 0.7000 0.6842 - 0.6986
EURO/AUD 1.4409 1.4286 1.4706 1.4314 - 1.4617

Friday 27th Feb 1:00pm(NZT)
The Euro only saw a temporary respite from the announcement of a deal between Greece and the EU. The reality is that the situation is a fluid and unpredictable as ever and we have another key deadline to look forward to in four months’ time. The now fractured Syriza party may well fail to pass the necessary reforms to gain further bailout funds. This means Greece’s long term inclusion in the Euro is uncertain as it ever was. All this hasn’t helped the Euro which has seen pressure despite the odd data point showing some improvement. A move back above 0.7000 (below 1.4286) looks likely for this pair in the near term. That being said, key to direction next week will be the RBA’s rate statement on Tuesday. It is a very close call whether we see an interest rate cut or not and that outcome will drive the AUD through the middle part of the week. Once the RBA decision is out of the way we still have Australian GDP, retail sales, and the trade balance to digest. Tonight from Europe we get German inflation and French consumer spending data, then next week we have inflation, retails sales, manufacturing and service PMI’s, and the ECB rate meeting.
The current interbank midrate is:    AUDEUR 0.6970    EURAUD 1.4347

The interbank range this week has been:    AUDEUR 0.6842 - 0.6986    EURAUD 1.4313 - 1.4617
Tuesday 24th Feb 2:30pm(NZT)
This pair is currently trading not far from where it was this time last week. We have seen some volatility on the back of discussions between Greece and the EU which drew most of the attention of the past seven days. The Euro came under pressure late last week as negotiations failed to reach an agreement and this drove the pair up over 0.6940 (under 1.4409) for a short time. At the eleventh hour however, the basis of an agreement was reached and the Euro reacted somewhat positively retracing its losses. But any gains in the Euro have been limited by the lack of detail in the agreement and the fact it’s really only just bought more time, four months to be exact, before we are back at square one. I would expect to see support around 0.6700 (resistance around 1.4925) contain any periods of weakness in the pair over the coming weeks. With little real progress made on the Greek situation further Euro weakness and a test toward 0.7000 (1.4286) remains a very real possibility for this pair. The main focus in Australia this week will be on private capital expenditure data due out on Thursday. While from Europe this week we have ECB President Draghi set to speak along with data on German inflation, German unemployment, and French consumer spending.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
AUD/EURO 0.6882 0.6700 0.6900 0.6789 - 0.6948
EURO/AUD 1.4531 1.4388 1.4925 1.4393 - 1.4730

Thursday 19th Feb 2:30pm(NZT)
The Australian dollar has made moderate gains against the Euro this week helped by a lack of agreement between Greece and the EU. Negotiations between the two parties will remain in focus over coming days and the outcome of which will be the driving force for the pair in the near term. Markets believe that the two side will eventually come together and if / when an eleventh hour agreement is reached we should see a modest appreciation of the Euro. All bets are off however, if we get to the 28th Feb with no resolution. Greece will run out of funds soon thereafter and very disorderly exit from the Euro could follow. The market is currently not pricing in much of a risk for that outcome, so the impact would be huge with the EUR losing as much as 10% of its value as a result. Next week from Australia we have private capital expenditure data to draw focus.
The current interbank midrate is:    AUDEUR 0.6853    EURAUD 1.4592

The interbank range this week has been:    AUDEUR 0.6755 - 0.6878    EURAUD 1.4539 - 1.4804
Tuesday 17th Feb 3:30pm(NZT)
This pair has continued its recovery from the lows seen in the wake of Thursday’s soft Australian employment data. The most recent gains have come in the past 24 hours as negotiations between Greece and the EU have failed to reach any agreement. Although both sides of the Greek / EU negotiations seem polarized, the reality is a deal with Greece could be announced at any stage and this would likely see the Euro appreciate. If no agreement is reached by Friday, and Greece hasn’t applied for an extension of the bailout programme, we will likely see further Euro weakness as Greece will only be days away from running out of money. There is little in the way of economic data set for release from Australia for the remainder of the week, so the focus will remain on developments out of Europe.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
AUD/EURO 0.6870 0.6700 0.6900 0.6755 - 0.6915
EURO/AUD 1.4556 1.4493 1.4925 1.4461 - 1.4804

Friday 13th Feb 2:30pm(NZT)
The Australian dollar has lost ground to the Euro this week driven in large part by weakness in the local currency. Yesterday's disappointing employment data was a key driver, although we have seen something of a recovery off the lows set in the wake of that release. Key to direction over the coming week will be outcome of continuing negotiations between Greece and its EU counterparts. If some sort of compromise deal is reached the Euro will strengthen, while a failure for the parties to come together will see pressure ramped up on the single currency. Monday’s Eurogroup meetings are now a particular focus with tentative signs a deal could be in the making. From Australia next week we have the minutes from the latest RBA meeting to digest.
The current interbank midrate is:    AUDEUR 0.6795    EURAUD 1.4717

The interbank range this week has been:    AUDEUR 0.6755 - 0.6933    EURAUD 1.4425 - 1.4804
Monday 9th Feb 4:00pm(NZT)
This pair has recovered almost all the losses seen in the immediate aftermath of last week’s RBA interest rate cut. Pressure on the Euro is mounting as there has been little sign of progress in negotiations with the new Greek government, and this week’s Eurogroup meetings could well be critical in that regard. A failure to see both sides come closer together will likely translate into increased EUR selling. For the time being resistance around 0.6900 (support around 1.4493) is capping the topside for the pair, with any break above there targeting a move toward 0.6960 (1.4368) and potentially back up over 0.7000 (under 1.4286). There are also plenty of local releases to draw attention this week with a speech from RBA Governor Stevens today followed over the coming days by business confidence, consumer sentiment, inflation expectations and employment change.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
AUD/EURO 0.6869 0.6700 0.6900 0.6714 - 0.6906
EURO/AUD 1.4558 1.4493 1.4925 1.4480 - 1.4895

Thursday 5th Feb 2:30pm(NZT)
The most dramatic move of the past week came in the wake of the Reserve Bank of Australia’s decision to cut interest rates. The Australian dollar got hammered as a result and against the Euro it fell from just below 0.6900 (1.4495) to just above 0.6700 (1.4925). Since then however, we have seen almost a complete recovery. In a bout of broader market volatility on Tuesday evening the AUD managed to outperform the EUR and recover some of the lost ground. Further gains have been seen in the past few hours after an announcement from the ECB, which effectively removes a key area of liquidity support for the Greek banking system. This has seen the Euro come under heavy selling pressure. Greece will remain a focus next week, but we also have Euro area industrial production and GDP data to digest. AUD resistance around 0.6900 (1.4495) provides the initial barrier to further AUD gains and this should prove tough to overcome in the near term. That level will come under increasing pressure if the Greek situation continues to unravel. From Australia next week we get readings on business confidence, consumer sentiment, inflation expectation and employment change.
The current interbank midrate is:    AUDEUR 0.6840    EURAUD 1.4620

The interbank range this week has been:    AUDEUR 0.6714 - 0.7005    EURAUD 1.4275 - 1.4895
Tuesday 3rd Feb 4:00pm(NZT)
Weakness in the Australian dollar drove this pair down below the 0.6900 (above 1.4493) level last week and it has so far failed to make any meaningful recovery. The market is now treading water waiting for the outcome of today’s RBA rate meeting and this event will dictate near term direction. The Greek political situation has yet to translate into broad based Euro weakness and it won’t be until later this month that we get to see how negotiations on Greece’s debt pile develop. Expect some volatile price action in the immediate aftermath of today's RBA announcement with a cut from the central bank likely to push the pair below 0.6800 (above 1.4706). On the flip side if the RBA maintain their current neutral stance the cross could easily rally toward 0.6950 (1.4388). Later in the week from Australia we also get retails sales data to digest, while from Europe over the coming days we get the final reading from Service sector PMI, retail sales, German factory orders, and the EU economic forecasts.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
AUD/EURO 0.6885 0.6800 0.6950 0.6818 - 0.7068
EURO/AUD 1.4524 1.4388 1.4706 1.4149 - 1.4667

Friday 30th Jan 2:00pm(NZT)
The Australian dollar has seen pressure this week particularly in the past 48 hours. The risk of a rate cut by the RBA next week is certainly weighing on the AUD, but all commodity currencies have been hit hard this week in what is a broader market move. This helped to drive the cross to the EUR well below the level is was trading before the ECB announced its massive quantitative easing programme. There is some support around the 0.6840 (resistance around 1.4620) area and the pair may try and stage a bounce from here. But markets are very volatile at the moment and in this environment prices can well overshoot anything that might be considered a reasonable target. Tuesday’s RBA meeting is the main focus next week and it has the potential to cause a significant move.
The current interbank midrate is:    AUDEUR 0.6780    EURAUD 1.4556

The interbank range this week has been:    AUDEUR 0.6835 - 0.7158    EURAUD 1.3970 - 1.4630
Tuesday 27th Jan 4:30pm(NZT)
Both the Australian dollar and the Euro have seen periods of pressure recently and this has resulted in a volatile cross, but little overall direction. The ECB’s QE announcement last Thursday has weighed on the EUR while the AUD has struggled in the face of further declines in iron ore prices. The outlook for both currencies remains negative and we could therefore be in for a continuation of choppy sideways price action. Eventually however, I expect the pair to retest the recent highs around 0.7150 (lows around 1.3986) as QE and the Greek political situation see the Euro under perform. Australian inflation data tomorrow will be closely watched then on Friday we get producer prices. Friday also sees the release of inflation data from Europe which is expected to show further declines.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
AUD/EURO 0.7040 0.6900 0.7130 0.6942 - 0.7158
EURO/AUD 1.4205 1.4025 1.4493 1.3970 - 1.4405

Friday 23th Jan 2:00pm(NZT)
The Australian dollar is currently trading close to where it started the week against the Euro. We have however, seen some volatile price action between then and now with the pair trading down towards 0.6940 (up towards 1.44090), before rebounding sharply last night. The dip was largely driven by weakness in the AUD after the Bank of Canada surprised markets by cutting rates 0.25%. This saw the whole block of commodity currencies come under pressure and a quick sell off in the AUD versus the EUR ensued. We did however see a sharp turnaround in the pair last night thanks to the massive quantitative easing programme announced by the European Central Bank (ECB). The size of the programme was at the upper end of any expectation and this saw the EUR come under immediate pressure. I would expect to continue to see the EUR struggle over the coming weeks. This could easily drive the pair back up over 0.7100 (under 1.4085) and potentially toward the 2014 high of 0.7257 (low of 1.3780). Data from Europe next week should be of only limited impact in light of last night’s announcement, although we do have the latest inflation reading next Friday to draw focus. While from Australia we get business confidence, inflation, and producer prices data.
The current interbank midrate is:    AUDEUR 0.7072    EURAUD 1.4140

The interbank range this week has been:    AUDEUR 0.6942 - 0.7139    EURAUD 1.4007 - 1.4405
Tuesday 20th Jan 3:30pm(NZT)
It has been mostly one way traffic for this pair since mid-December, with persistent Euro weakness driving the cross higher. The pressure on the Euro has come on the back of increasing expectation that the ECB will announce quantitative easing measures at this week’s meeting. Almost all market participants now expect that announcement to come on Thursday evening and the real interest will be in the size of the programme and how it is structured. A significant programme in excess of EUR 500 bln should keep pressure on the EUR. Greek concerns have also weighed on the Euro and that country goes to the polls this weekend in what could be a key victory for the anti-austerity Syriza party. The ramifications of a Syriza win could end up being as dramatic as a Greek exit from the Euro, although most expect some middle ground to be met between Troika and the potential new government. The only thing that is certain is that there is still plenty of potential for further volatility in the Euro. Key support comes in around 0.6900 (resistance at 1.4493) and while the market trades above there, the risks remain skewed to the topside. From Australia over the coming days we have consumer sentiment and inflation expectations data to digest, but the main focus will be on Thursday’s ECB announcement.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
AUD/EURO 0.7075 0.6900 0.7130 0.6844 - 0.7139
EURO/AUD 1.4134 1.4025 1.4493 1.4007 - 1.4612

Friday 19th Dec 1:00pm(NZT)
The Australian dollar remained under pressure from the Euro for much of this week, weighed on by continued volatility in commodity prices and a fall in Chinese factory activity. But in the past 36 hours we have seen something of a turnaround driven largely by weakness in the Euro. This has seen the pair break above key downtrend resistance around 0.6600 (support at 1.5152) and quick rally to 0.6680 (decline to 1.4970) followed. This move has taken the immediate pressure off the Australian dollar downside and we should now see, at a minimum, some sideways consolidation and potentially broader recovery toward 0.6800 (1.4706). Initial AUD support now comes in around 0.6600 (resistance at 1.5152) and this level should contain any near term AUD weakness.
The current interbank midrate is:    AUDEUR 0.6645    EURAUD 1.5049

The interbank range this week has been:    AUDEUR 0.6523 - 0.6680    EURAUD 1.4971 - 1.5331
Tuesday 16th Dec 4:00pm(NZT)
The Australian dollar has continued to lose ground to the Euro this past week and currently trades not far from the cycle low of 0.6587 (highs 1.5181). Further falls in commodity prices have weighed on the AUD and this has kept the pair under pressure. Key resistance now comes in around 0.6650 (support 1.5040) and it will take a move above there to signal the AUD downside pressure is abating. Until then, further investigations below 0.6600 (above 1.5150) are likely. There is now no data of significance due for release in Australia until next year. While from Europe this week we get manufacturing and service sector PMI data, along with the German ZEW economic sentiment and IFO business climate surveys.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
AUD/EURO 0.6605 0.6500 0.6700 0.6587 - 0.6740
EURO/AUD 1.5140 1.4925 1.5385 1.4837 - 1.5181

Thursday 11th Dec 4:00pm(NZT)
The Australian dollar has seen pressure from the Euro this week driven on two fronts. Firstly we saw disappointing readings from Australian business confidence and consumer sentiment in the early stages of the week and these weighed on the AUD. But we have also seen something of a recovery in the Euro as a bout of profit taking on short (sold) positions swept the market in recent days. In the past couple of hours we have seen much better than forecast Australian employment data and this has helped the pair recover back toward 0.6700 (1.4925). The AUD downside risks have not abated yet however, and we will need to see a move above 0.6720 (below 1.4881) to suggest a broader recovery is unfolding. From Australia next week we have the RBA minutes along with the Mid-Year Economic and Fiscal Outlook from the Treasury to digest. While from Europe we have manufacturing and service sector PMI’s to draw focus along with the German ZEW economic sentiment and IFO business climate indexes.
The current interbank midrate is:    AUDEUR 0.6697    EURAUD 1.4932

The interbank range this week has been:    AUDEUR 0.6660 - 0.6841    EURAUD 1.4618 - 1.5015
Tuesday 9th Dec 3:30pm(NZT)
The Australian dollar has lost ground to the Euro over the past week, driven lower by very poor GDP data. This has raised the prospect of rate cuts from the RBA next year and as such the local currency has suffered. On the Euro side of the equation there was some disappointment at the lack of concrete plans for QE released at the ECB meeting last week, and this prompted some short covering of sold EUR positions. It seems likely however that any near term buying of Euro’s will quickly dissipate and this should at least slow the downside momentum in the pair. The next key support level comes in around 0.6650 (resistance at 1.5038) and this looks like a very achievable target in the near term. In Europe this week, the focus will turn to Thursday’s targeted LTRO announcement. While from Australia we have consumer confidence and employment data set for release.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
AUD/EURO 0.6710 0.6650 0.6850 0.6730 - 0.6852
EURO/AUD 1.4903 1.4599 1.5038 1.4594 - 1.4858

Thursday 4th Dec 3:30pm(NZT)
Both the Australian dollar and the Euro have seen periods of pressure this week which has resulted in a choppy range, but no overall direction. The Euro has suffered on the back of further soft data, while the AUD has been weighed on by declining commodity prices and much weaker than expected GDP figures. The cross is currently trading in upper portion of its recent range thanks in part to this afternoons Australian retail sales number the surprised on the strong side. These have offered the AUD some respite from the relentless selling seen earlier. Key to near term direction however, will be tonight’s European Central Bank meeting. Any suggestion that outright sovereign QE is close will see the Euro come under further pressure. From Australia next week we have business confidence, consumer sentiment, inflation expectations and employment change. While from the Eurozone there is a rash of second tier data set for release along with the results of the targeted LTRO.
The current interbank midrate is:    AUDEUR 0.6820    EURAUD 1.4663

The interbank range this week has been:    AUDEUR : 0.6767 - 0.6884    EURAUD 1.4526 - 1.4778
Tuesday 2nd Dec 1:30pm(NZT)
Continued declines in commodity prices have seen the Australian dollar come under a lot of pressure this past week and this has driven the pairing down to the lowest level since June at 0.6767 (highs 1.4778). Although the longer term forecast is for the Euro to see increased pressure over the coming months, some very recent Eurozone data has shown small improvements and this has seem immediate pressure on the Euro ease. Price action over the coming days will be driven by a number of key releases. From Australia today we have building approvals and the RBA rate statement to digest. Then later in the week we get GDP and retail sales data. From Europe the focus will on Thursday night’s ECB rate meeting and subsequent press conference. If we see further weakness in the pair it could fall all the way to support around 0.6650 (resistance around 1.5038). If the Australian dollar manages to find some support from this week’s economic releases then a move back toward 0.6900 (1.4493) should eventuate.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
AUD/EURO 0.6803 0.6750 0.6950 0.6767 - 0.6930
EURO/AUD 1.4699 1.4388 1.4815 1.4429 - 1.4778

Friday 28th Nov 1:00pm(NZT)
This pair has seen sharp losses over the course of the week, driven by a combination of Australian dollar weakness and some Euro strength. The AUD has been weighed on by declining iron ore prices, which hit a five year low, along with negative comments from the RBA’s Deputy Governor who suggested rate cuts weren’t off the table. The EUR has also seen a slight improvement in demand thanks to a small improvement in some economic indicators recently. These two factors drove the pair down to 0.6800 (up to 1.4706), before a small recovery ensued. As long as the market holds above 0.6800 (below 1.4706), we are likely to see further ranging between that level and 0.7030 (1.4225). Those two levels have largely contained price action since mid-September. Any move below 0.6800 (above 1.4706) would open the way for further AUD losses potentially toward support at 0.6650 (resistance 1.5038). From Australia next week there is plenty to digest with GDP, the RBA rate meeting, building approvals, retails sales and the trade balance all set for release. While from Europe we have retail sales, German factory orders, PMI’s from Spain and Italy and the ECB meeting to draw focus.
The current interbank midrate is:    AUDEUR 0.6840    EURAUD 1.4620

The interbank range this week has been:    AUDEUR 0.6802 - 0.7024    EURAUD 1.4237 - 1.4701
Tuesday 25th Nov 3:30pm(NZT)
The range of 0.6830 to 0.7030 (1.4225 to 1.4641) has largely contained this pair since mid-September and the past week has seen both those levels tested at times. The pair has failed to break out however, and it currently trades bang in the middle of that range at 0.6930 (1.4430). Some improvements in data out of Europe has caused periods of EUR out performance, while the news of a surprise rate cut in China helped the Australian dollar outperform at the end of last week. Overall however there is little to suggest a broad trend is developing in either direction and so playing the now well defined range remains the favoured strategy. Tomorrow from Australia we get data on construction work done data and on Thursday we have private capital expenditure figures to digest. While from Europe we have German retail sales, French consumer spending, inflation and unemployment data.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
AUD/EURO 0.6916 0.6830 0.7030 0.6835 - 0.7024
EURO/AUD 1.4460 1.4225 1.4641 1.4237 - 1.4630

Friday 21st Nov 1:30pm(NZT)
The Australian dollar has seen sharp declines against the Euro this week after being rejected from resistance above 0.7000 (support 1.4285) on Monday. Although European data has been a mixed bag this week, the improvements seen in the ZEW economic sentiment index provided enough of a bright spot to limit further Euro weakness, at least for now. While the AUD itself was weighed on by a speech from RBA Governor Stevens that suggested monetary policy could be on hold of a very long time due to the subdued nature of wage and jobs growth. The pair has so far found support around 0.6840 (resistance 1.4620) and there is potential for a significant recovery from this area over the coming days. Next week from Australia we have private capital expenditure data and the Treasuries mid-year fiscal outlook to digest. While in Europe the focus will be on inflation and unemployment data, although we also have the German business climate index, German retail sales and French consumer spending figures set for release.
The current interbank midrate is:    AUDEUR 0.6877    EURAUD 1.4541

The interbank range this week has been:    AUDEUR 0.6835 - 0.7007    EURAUD 1.4272 - 1.4630
Tuesday 18th Nov 3:00pm(NZT)
Gains for this pair in the first half of last week stalled around the 0.7000 (1.4285) level and we have seen mostly sideways action since then. Some slightly better than expected second tier data out of Australia last week was countered by Eurozone GDP that also came in a touch above expectation. As a result the pair seems content to range between 0.6970 and 0.7030 (1.4225 - 1.4350) for the time been. A sustained break above 0.7030 (below 1.4225) would open the way for further progress toward 0.7100 (1.4085). The only other release of note from Australia this week will be a speech from RBA Governor Stevens tonight. While from Europe we get German ZEW economic sentiment numbers tonight, then later in the week the focus will turn to manufacturing and service sector PMI data.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
AUD/EURO 0.6990 0.6900 0.7100 0.6926 - 0.7027
EURO/AUD 1.4306 1.4085 1.4493 1.4231 - 1.4439

Friday 14th Nov 1:30pm(NZT)
This pair has seen consistent gains over the past week, trading up to initial resistance at 0.7030 (support 1.4225) in the past 24 hours. Gains in the Australian dollar have come on the back of solid business conditions data and news of a free trade deal with China. While from Europe, continued subdued economic releases have provided little support for the EUR and that trend is likely to continue tonight with the release of GDP data. Official estimates are for a gain of 0.1% for the quarter, but there is a very real chance of a flat or even negative result. Expect further pressure on the EUR if that is the case. Any break above 0.7030 (below 1.4225) will likely be the beginning of much broader gains toward 0.7100 (1.4085) and then 0.7200 (1.3890). The focus in Australia now turns to the RBA's minutes set for release on Tuesday, just ahead of the Treasuries mid-year economic and fiscal outlook. While from Europe we get German economic sentiment, along with manufacturing and service sector PMI’s.
The current interbank midrate is:    AUDEUR 0.6980    EURAUD 1.4327

The interbank range this week has been:    AUDEUR 0.6903 - 0.7027    EURAUD 1.4231 - 1.4486
Tuesday 11th Nov 2:00pm(NZT)
The Australian dollar was under pressure across the board for much of last week and this saw it dramatically underperform the Euro up until Thursday night. That is when ECB President Draghi quashed rumours of a potential leadership challenge after the central bank’s rate meeting. This caused the Euro itself to see some pressure and this allowed the cross to the AUD to stage something of a recovery. So far the recovery has taken the pair back to 0.6950 (down to 1.4388), but the AUD rally could easily continue higher over the coming days. Key AUD topside resistance is not seen until 0.7030 (downside support at 1.4225). Still to come this week from Australia we have business confidence, consumer sentiment, the wage price index and inflation expectations. While from Europe we have Eurozone industrial production, GDP and the final reading of inflation to draw focus.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
AUD/EURO 0.6940 0.6850 0.7030 0.6853 - 0.6989
EURO/AUD 1.4409 1.4225 1.4600 1.4309 - 1.4593

Friday 7th Nov 1:30pm(NZT)
For much of this week the Australian dollar dramatically underperformed the Euro driving the cross down to a low of 0.6853 (upto 1.4592). The Australian dollar was weighed on by softer than expected Chinese data and a surprise downward revision to prior employment numbers from the Australian Bureau of Statistics. Strong Australian retail sales provided temporary relief for the pair, but the Euro again outperformed as speculation about ECB President Draghi’s future swept the market. That speculation was largely put to bed last night after the ECB’s rate meeting and as such the EUR has weakened significantly. This has allowed the cross to the AUD to recover from its lows and it now trades back up over 0.6900 (down to 1.4490). With the market increasingly expecting further action from the ECB in December, I expect the Euro to see repeated periods of pressure over the coming weeks. This should keep further downside in the AUD on this pair limited, and has the potential to drive the cross back up toward 0.7000(down to 1.4285). Buying into Australian in any weakness is therefore recommended. Next week from Australia we have business confidence and consumer sentiment data to digest along with the wage price index, and inflation expectations. While from Europe we get industrial production numbers along with GDP data from France, Germany, Italy and the Eurozone as a whole. We also have the final reading of Eurozone inflation to digest.
The current interbank midrate is:    AUDEUR 0.6915    EURAUD 1.4461

The interbank range this week has been:    AUDEUR 0.6853 - 0.7030    EURAUD 1.4225 - 1.4593
Tuesday 4th Nov 2:30pm(NZT)
The Australian dollar saw consistent appreciation against the Euro last week trading up over 0.7000 (under 1.4286) for at time on Friday. With nothing to cheer in the way of encouraging data out of Europe, the EUR is continuing to struggle and I expect this to remain the case heading into year end. In the early stages of this week however, the AUD has retraced some of last week’s gains thanks to softer than forecast Chinese manufacturing data and a poor result from Australian building approvals. This pullback will likely provide a buying opportunity, with weakness not expected to extend past 0.6900 (1.4493). There is some key data over the coming days however that could easily influence. From Australia remaining today, we have the RBA monetary policy statement. Then on Thursday we have employment change data to digest. While from Europe we get service sector PMI’s over the coming days along with EU economic forecasts, German factory orders, French industrial production and the ECB rate meeting.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
AUD/EURO 0.6940 0.6900 0.7100 0.6927 - 0.7030
EURO/AUD 1.4410 1.4085 1.4493 1.4225 - 1.4436

Thursday 30th Oct 3:30PM (NZT)
The Australian dollar saw gradual appreciation against the Euro for much of this week, helped by less than inspiring data out of the Eurozone. The pair traded up to 0.6982 (down to 1.4323) last night, before a sharp turnaround in fortunes early this morning. In the wake of the US Federal Reserve rate statement this morning, which struck a somewhat more positive tone, the USD rallied strongly and the AUD dramatically underperformed the Euro. As such the cross fell back toward 0.6940 (1.4409) where it currently trades. This dip likely provides a buying opportunity with the trend of the past two weeks firmly to the topside. Further tests of minor resistance around 0.6980 (support around 1.4327) seem likely and any move above there will target the next key level of 0.7030 (1.4225). Next week is a big one from Australia with building approvals, retail sales, the trade balance and employment change all set for release along with the latest Reserve Bank of Australia rate statement. While from Europe there is a raft of second tier data set of release ahead of the main focus which is Thursday’s ECB rate meeting and subsequent press conference.
The current interbank midrate is:    AUDEUR 0.6950    EURAUD 1.4388

The interbank range this week has been:    AUDEUR 0.6892 - 0.6982    EURAUD 1.4322 - 1.4503
Tuesday 28th Oct 2:30pm(NZT)
The Australian dollar managed some gains against the Euro last week, although for the time being they seem to have stalled at 0.6960 (1.4368). A generally sombre outlook for the European economy is weighing on the Euro and this is likely to remain the case heading into year end. However, some very recent releases have surprised on the positive side with manufacturing and service PMI’s coming in a touch better than forecast and the ECB stress tests not highlighting any major bank problems. These releases have helped the Euro regain some composure, although they are insufficient to change the broader trend toward further depreciation. The key release this week from Europe will be inflation figures on Friday. Ahead of which we get German inflation, unemployment and retails sales, along with French consumer spending. From Australia we only have import prices and producer prices of any note.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
AUD/EURO 0.6935 0.6850 0.7100 0.6854 - 0.6962
EURO/AUD 1.4420 1.4184 1.4600 1.4364 - 1.4591

Thursday 23th Oct 3:30PM (NZT)
The Australian dollar has seen grinding appreciation against the Euro this week, thanks in large part to increasingly negative sentiment around the economic outlook for the Eurozone. This is pressuring the Euro currency and as such this pair cross has traded back up toward 0.6950 (down to 1.4390). The Australian dollar itself hasn’t been impacted much this week by either the RBA minutes or yesterday’s inflation data, the headline reading of which was a touch stronger than forecast. Further gains toward 0.7000 (falls to 1.4285) are likely as the Euro should continue to remain under pressure in the near term. Next week we get the Australian Treasury’s mid-year economic and fiscal outlook, along with import prices and producer prices. While from Europe we have German retails sales, German IFO business climate, French consumer spending, unemployment and inflation data to digest.
The current interbank midrate is:    AUDEUR 0.6932    EURAUD 1.4426

The interbank range this week has been:    AUDEUR 0.6801 - 0.6962    EURAUD 1.4364 - 1.4704
Monday 20th Oct 3:30PM (NZT)
The Euro managed to make some gains against the Australian dollar last week despite an increase in concerns about growth prospects for the region. Australian data had little impact on the pair with volatility in the wider markets the main driver. That being said I see little reason for the Euro to appreciate over the coming weeks, with the risks actually skewed to another down leg in the currency. This should see the cross to the AUD regain recent lost ground and a move back up toward 0.7000 (down toward 1.4286). This week from Australia we have the RBA minutes, inflation and a speech from Governor Stevens to digest. While from Europe manufacturing and service PMI’s will draw attention.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
AUD/EURO 0.6880 0.6800 0.7000 0.6801 - 0.6923
EURO/AUD 1.4535 1.4286 1.4706 1.4444 - 1.4704

Friday 17th Oct 2:30PM (NZT)
The Australian dollar has lost ground to the Euro this week, despite continued concerns about growth and inflation in the Eurozone. The Euro has in fact performed well across the board particularly in light of Wednesday’s wild moves across all financial markets. The break below support around 0.6850 (above 1.4600) does warn that we could see further investigations  for the AUD lower, although I would expect this to eventually provide a good buying opportunity. Long term interest rates for some of the peripheral Eurozone countries have again started to move higher in a sign that the market is losing confidence in the region and I expect the Euro to eventually come under renewed pressure. Next week from Australia we get the minutes from the last RBA meeting, inflation data, and the Treasury’s mid-year economic and fiscal outlook. While from Europe we have manufacturing and service PMI’s from France, Germany and the Eurozone as a whole to draw focus. While from Europe we have manufacturing and service PMI’s from France, Germany and the Eurozone as a whole to draw focus.
The current interbank midrate is:    AUDEUR 0.6855    EURAUD 1.4588

The interbank range this week has been:    AUDEUR 0.6801 - 0.6923    EURAUD 1.4444 - 1.4704
Tuesday 14th Oct 2:30PM (NZT)
The Australian dollar has seen some pressure from the Euro over the past week and this has driven the pair to test support around 0.6850 (1.4600 resistance). Increasing concerns about the outlook for European growth and inflation have yet to translate into further Euro weakness, but that’s no reason to think it won’t eventually come. As long as support around 0.6850 (resistance around 1.4600) contains the AUD downside, the risks are there for a recovery back up toward 0.7000 (down toward 1.4286). Key to near term direction will be data set for release this week. From Australia we have business confidence, consumer sentiment, inflation expectations and a speech from RBA Assistant Governor Debelle. While from Europe we have German economic sentiment, Eurozone industrial production, and the final reading of inflation to digest.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
AUD/EURO 0.6876 0.6850 0.7100 0.6844 - 0.6985
EURO/AUD 1.4543 1.4184 1.4600 1.4316 - 1.4612

Friday 10th Oct 2:30PM (NZT)
The past week has seen some choppy sideways price action for this pair between the broad parameters of 0.6900 and 0.6990 (1.4493 and 1.4306). Both currencies have seen periods of pressure on the back of softer than expected data releases and border market moves in the value of the USD have also played a part in adding volatility to the pair. The Euro is likely to remain under pressure with worrying signs of contraction in Germany mounting. This should help limit the downside for the pair to support around 0.6850 (resistance around 1.4600) and buying ahead of that level is recommended for those looking to purchase AUD with EUR. Next week from Australia we have business confidence, consumer sentiment and inflation expectations to draw focus. While from Europe we get German ZEW economic sentiment data and the final reading of Eurozone inflation along with a number of speeches from ECB President Draghi.
The current interbank midrate is:    AUDEUR 0.6900    EURAUD 1.4493

The interbank range this week has been:    AUDEUR 0.6896 - 0.6985    EURAUD 1.4316 - 1.4500
Tuesday 7th Oct 2:30PM (NZT)
The Australian dollar has staged something of a recovery against the Euro after trading to a low of 0.6856 (high of 1.4586) this time last week. Good local building consents data has helped the move, as has continued uninspiring data from the Eurozone. Expect support around 0.6850 (resistance around 1.4600) to continue to contain near term NZD weakness, with potential for a move up toward 0.7000 (down to 1.4286). Key to near term direction will be the RBA rate statement out this afternoon, and then Australian employment data on Thursday. The only release of note from the Eurozone this week is a speech by ECB president Draghi on Thursday.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
AUD/EURO 0.6935 0.6850 0.7100 0.6856 - 0.6970
EURO/AUD 1.4420 1.4184 1.4599 1.4347 - 1.4587

Friday 3rd Oct 3:30PM (NZT)
This pair has seen choppy price action over the course of the week driven by fundamental data and market positioning. The Australian dollar saw some pressure after softer than forecast retail sales figures on Wednesday but since then the local currency has managed to outperform the Euro. Yesterday’s better that expected building consents data helped the AUD, but the sharpest gains came as that strength turned into a classic short squeeze. This drove the pair up to the weeks high of 0.6970 (low of 1.4347). The ECB meeting last night held few surprises and as such there hasn’t been a dramatic impact on the value of the Euro. The pair could easily appreciate further and test resistance just above 0.7000 (below 1.4286) over the coming week. That level should however cap gains for now. On the down side key support comes in at 0.6850 (resistance at 1.4599). The economic calendar from Europe is light next week with the highlights being German factory orders, French industrial production and a speech by Draghi. While from Australia we have the RBA rate statement and employment change to draw focus.
The current interbank midrate is:    AUDEUR 0.6945    EURAUD 1.4399

The interbank range this week has been:    AUDEUR 0.6856 - 0.6970    EURAUD 1.4347 - 1.4587
Tuesday 30th Sept 12:00PM (NZT)
Since peaking earlier this month at 0.7257 (1.3780) this pair has seen a dramatic pullback. Weakness in the Australian dollar has been the main driver and in the past few days we have seen the pair testing key support around 0.6850 (resistance around 1.4600). It the market can hold above that level we could easily see a recovery back toward 0.7000 (1.4286). A sustained move below 0.6850 (above 1.4600) however would open the way for further losses toward the next major support level of 0.6650 (resistance at 1.5038). The ECB meet this week and although it will be interesting to hear what they have to say, no further direct action is expected at this time. Ahead of that meeting we get Eurozone inflation, unemployment, German retail sales and French consumer spending data. Over the coming days from Australia we get retail sales, building approvals and trade balance data to digest, along with the RBA’s testimony on housing market risks.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
AUD/EURO 0.6872 0.6850 0.7100 0.6857 - 0.6954
EURO/AUD 1.4552 1.4184 1.4599 1.4380 - 1.4585

Friday 26th Sept 3:30PM (NZT)
Both the Australian dollar and the Euro have seen periods of pressure this week, but the Euro has been the slight outperformer. As such the cross has ground out a fresh cycle low at 0.6871 (high at 1.4554), although to be fair it was short lived and the market quickly recovered back to 0.6950. We can expect further swings like this as both currencies remain under some pressure. I’m not expecting a huge amount of direction from the pair in the near term and 0.6850 to 0.6950 may well contain price action over the coming week. Next week from Australia we have retail sales, building approvals and the trade balance to digest. While in Europe the focus turns to inflation data on Tuesday and the ECB rate meeting on Thursday.
The current interbank midrate is:    AUDEUR 0.6890    EURAUD 1.4514

The interbank range this week has been:    AUDEUR 0.6871 - 0.6992    EURAUD 1.4302 - 1.4555
Tuesday 23rd Sept 4:00PM (NZT)
Weakness in the Australian dollar has been the main driver of this pair over the past week. In the past 24 hours a negative report from Roubini Economics has weighed on the AUD further and this has seen the pair trade down just under 0.6900 (over 1.4493). For the time being the risks are skewed to further weakness and only a quick recovery back above 0.6930 (below 1.4430) will negate this. The economic calendar is pretty light from Australia this week with the financial stability review and a speech by RBA Governor Stevens the main highlights. While from Europe we get manufacturing and service sector PMI’s along with the German IFO business climate index.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
AUD/EURO 0.6910 0.6850 0.7100 0.6893 - 0.7022
EURO/AUD 1.4472 1.4184 1.4599 1.4241 - 1.4508

Friday 19th Sept 2:00PM (NZT)
The past week has seen mostly sideways price action for this pair. The Australian dollar did make good gains against the Euro after the Chinese announced some liquidity injection measures that are the equivalent of easing monetary policy, but the gains were short lived. There is support around 0.6930 (resistance around 1.4430) and this should continue to provide a tough downside barrier. However, if we do get a break below there the pair could easily fall toward 0.6800 (rally to 1.4706). Last night’s very poor take up of the ECB’s targeted LTRO hasn’t had a major impact on the Euro so far, but it’s hard to see how it could be viewed as positive. The G20 meetings this weekend will draw focus and next week from Europe we get manufacturing and service PMI’s, German IFO business climate index and consumer confidence. While from Australia we have the leading index and the RBA financial stability review to digest.
The current interbank midrate is:    AUDEUR 0.6950    EURAUD 1.4388

The interbank range this week has been:    AUDEUR 0.6937 - 0.7049    EURAUD 1.4187 - 1.4416
Tuesday 16th Sept 3:00PM (NZT)
The past week has seen largely one way traffic for this pairing with Australian dollar weakness driving the cross to a low of 0.6937 (high of 1.4415) so far. Even the strongest employment number on record couldn’t turn the tide for the AUD and it’s only in the past 24 hours that we have seen a small bounce and some stabilisation. Key support comes in just above 0.6900 (resistance just below 1.4493) and I would expect that to contain any further downside in the near term. Tonight from Europe we get German economic sentiment data and on Thursday we have the first Targeted LTRO. The market will be keen to see what sort of take-up there is for those funds and what that implies for the state of the European economy.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
AUD/EURO 0.6984 0.6580 0.7100 0.6937 - 0.7206
EURO/AUD 1.4318 1.4085 1.4599 1.3878 - 1.4416

Friday 12th Sept 2:00PM (NZT)
Last week saw a sharp leap higher in this AUD over the EUR after the ECB announced their latest easing measures. This week however, we have seen that move completely reversed thanks almost entirely to weakness in the Australian dollar. There has been no fundamental data to drive this weakness and it really seems the AUD has just played catch up to other currencies and succumbed to USD strength. There is minor support around the current level of 0.7035 (resistance 1.4215) which is containing the AUD downside for now. A break below that level would target a move to 0.6950 (1.4388). We get Eurozone industrial production data tonight and next week the focus turns to economic sentiment, inflation and current account numbers. From Australia next week we have the RBA minutes to draw focus.
The current interbank midrate is:    AUDEUR 0.7035    EURAUD 1.4215

The interbank range this week has been:    AUDEUR 0.7034 - 0.7247    EURAUD 1.3800 - 1.4217
Tuesday 9th Sept 2:00PM (NZT)
Price action in this pair over the past week has been dominated by the dramatic selling of Euro’s in the wake of Thursday night’s ECB meeting. The EUR came under all sorts of pressure after the central bank announced further interest rate cuts and a programme of quantitative easing. This drove the cross to the Australian dollar up as high as 0.7247 (low 1.3799) and although we have seen a small pullback in the early stages of this week, the risks are all still skewed toward the AUD topside. From Australia this week we have consumer sentiment and employment change data to digest. While from Europe we get the ECB monthly bulletin, a speech by President Draghi and industrial production data.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
AUD/EURO 0.7196 0.7150 0.7250 0.7057 - 0.7247
EURO/AUD 1.3897 1.3793 1.3986 1.3800 - 1.4169

Friday 5th Sept 2:30PM (NZT)
We have seen very dramatic gains in this pair in the last 24 hours thanks to the ECB’s announcement of rate cuts and QE. The Euro came under intense selling pressure on the back of that announcement and this has driven the pair up over 0.7200 (under 1.3889). The European Central Bank has now played all their cards and if nothing else these measures should continue to weaken the Euro further. The Australian dollar itself has been a strong performer this week, buoyed by improving data and comments from RBA Governor Stevens that seem to take the potential for any further rate cuts off the table. The risks are firmly skewed to further gains over the coming weeks for the pair and AUD buying into any weakness is recommended. From Australia next week we have business confidence, consumer sentiment and employment change data to draw focus. While from Europe we get the German trade balance, French industrial production and the ECB monthly bulletin.
The current interbank midrate is:    AUDEUR 0.7225    EURAUD 1.3841

The interbank range this week has been:    AUDEUR 0.7056 - 0.7243    EURAUD 1.3807 - 1.4172
Tuesday 2nd Sept 2:00PM (NZT)
The Australian dollar has completely outperformed the Euro over the last month with a strong uptrend developing. The past week has seen gains continue as the pair traded to a fresh cycle high of 0.7122 (low of 1.4041). Weakness in the Euro has played a large part in this recent trend. The outlook for Europe’s extremely fragile recovery remains far from certain and it’s hard to see where genuine growth is going to come from. German adherence to strict deficit reduction targets is strangling growth prospects and it is looking increasingly likely that the European Central Bank will have to undertake some sort of quantitative easing programme over the coming months. The central bank may well signal as much at the conclusion of the rate meeting on Thursday night. This outlook is weighing on the Euro and will continue to do so. The immediate focus however, now turns to this afternoon’s RBA rate statement and the potential for some stronger words, re the value of the AUD, from the central bank. This could cause some near term AUD weakness, although the pair would have to break below 0.7050 (above 1.4184) to threaten the overall uptrend. Later in the week from Australia we have GDP, retail sales and the trade balance to digest.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
AUD/EURO 0.7107 0.7050 0.7250 0.7032 - 0.7122
EURO/AUD 1.4071 1.3793 1.4184 1.4041 - 1.4220

Friday 29th Aug 1:30PM (NZT)
The AUD broke above recent cycle highs against the EUR of 0.7035 (1.4215)  in early Monday trade and never really looked back. Since then the AUD has been on a relentless march higher trading up over 0.7100 (under 1.4085) last night. The move has been driven by broad based Euro weakness with continued poor data making the likelihood of quantitative easing from the ECB over the coming months a near certainty. Australian dollar strength has also played a part with good data on private capital expenditure helping to support the local currency. The focus for the pair remains on the Australian dollar upside. We could easily see a corrective pullback to the 0.7035 (1.4215) level without threatening the overall uptrend, but it is never a good idea to go against a trend this strong. Only a move below 0.7035 (above 1.4215) would change the outlook. We have some key data from Australia next week in the form of building approvals, the RBA rate statement, GDP and retail sales. From Europe we also have the ECB rate meeting along with manufacturing and service PMI’s from Spain and Italy, Eurozone retail sales and German factory orders.
The current interbank midrate is:    AUDEUR 0.7096    EURAUD 1.4092

The interbank range this week has been:    AUDEUR 0.7005 - 0.7109    EURAUD 1.4067 - 1.4276
Tuesday 26th Aug 1:30PM (NZT)
The Australian dollar completely outperformed the Euro last week which drove the cross to its 0.7067 high (low 1.4150). Data out of Europe continues to disappoint and this is seeing the EUR remain under pressure. ECB president Mario Draghi also signalled the central banks willingness to undertake QE when he spoke over the weekend and this weakened the EUR further. However we have seen something of a correction lower at this start of this week as the pair has pulled back from those recent highs. This correction could see the pair fall as low as 0.7000 (rally up to 1.4285) without threatening the overall Australian dollar uptrend. Later this week from Australia we get construction work done and private capital expenditure data. While from Europe we get German unemployment and retail sales, along with Eurozone inflation and unemployment.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
AUD/EURO 0.7040 0.6850 0.7100 0.6974 - 0.7067
EURO/AUD 1.4205 1.4184 1.4599 1.4150 - 1.4339

Friday 22nd Aug 2:00PM (NZT)
Continued soft European data has weighed on the Euro and enabled the Australian dollar to outperform it over the past week. The market is currently trading just above 0.7000 (below 1.4286) and the risks remain skewed to the topside for the AUD. There is major trend support around 0.6940 (resistance 1.4400) and this level should contain any weakness in the near term. Only a move below that level would change the current positive outlook for the AUD. This weekend we have a speech from ECB President Draghi at the Jackson Hole central bankers’ symposium which will be closely watched. The Fed’s Yellen is also speaking and there is plenty of potential for some market volatility as a result. Next week from Australia we only have construction work done and private capital expenditure data to digest. While in Europe the focus turns to the German business climate index, along with Eurozone unemployment and inflation.
The current interbank midrate is:    AUDEUR 0.7008    EURAUD 1.4269

The interbank range this week has been:    AUDEUR 0.6942 - 0.7012    EURAUD 1.4262 - 1.4405
Tuesday 19th Aug 4:30PM (NZT)
It has been a largely positive week for this pair with the Australian dollar outperforming the EUR on the back of gains in business confidence, consumer sentiment and house prices. The Euro itself is struggling to finds buyers as data from the region has been universally disappointing. The pair now looks like testing levels over 0.7000 (under 1.4286), although there is plenty of resistance between there and 0.7035 (1.4215) which will likely cap the AUD topside for now. Tomorrow we have a speech from Governor Stevens to digest while from Europe this week we have the manufacturing and service PMI number to draw focus.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
AUD/EURO 0.6992 0.6850 0.7100 0.6921 - 0.6989
EURO/AUD 1.4302 1.4184 1.4599 1.4309 - 1.4448

Friday 15th Aug 3:55PM (NZT)
The Australian dollar has seen grinding appreciation over the Euro this week. With the spread of negative economic news in Europe, the move has been almost one way traffic for the entire week. Solid resistance comes it at the .7020 level (Euro support - 1.4245) and this should cap the appreciation in the short term. Next weeks RBA monetary policy meeting minutes on Tuesday offer some focus ahead of the European manufacturing and services data on Thursday. Current levels look to offer very good value buying of EUR with Australian dollars. Those looking to buy AUD with EUR with the luxury of time, should look to target  better value levels by targeting specific price points with limit orders.
The current interbank midrate is:    AUDEUR .6975    EURAUD

The interbank range this week has been:    AUDEUR    EURAUD 1.4337
Tuesday 12th Aug 2:00PM (NZT)
Last week’s poor Australian employment data was the key driver for this pair. The Australian dollar dramatically underperformed the Euro in the wake of that release and this saw the pair reverse prior gains eventually trading to a low of 0.6909 (1.4475 high). We have only seen a very limited bounce since then and this keeps the focus on the AUD downside. The target is a move down to support around 0.6860 (up to resistance at 1.4578). So far this week trading has been very quiet as we await some data that could spark a move. To that extent from Australia this week we get consumer sentiment, the wage price index, and inflation expectations. While from Europe we get German economic sentiment data, GDP, the ECB monthly bulletin and the final reading of inflation.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
AUD/EURO 0.6924 0.6850 0.7050 0.6909 - 0.7002
EURO/AUD 1.4443 1.4184 1.4600 1.4282 - 1.4475

Friday 8th Aug 2:30PM (NZT)
For much of this week the Australian dollar was gaining ground on the Euro thanks in large part to continued soft data from the Eurozone. Yesterday afternoon however, we saw a dramatic turnaround in the wake of much weaker than expected Australian employment data. A big jump in the unemployment rate combined with employment change of -0.3k to see the AUD marked sharply lower. Overnight we saw a small recovery as the Euro itself saw pressure in the wake of the ECB rate meeting, however the pair has since turned back down and another test toward 0.6920 (1.4451) could be on the cards. A move below there would target support around 0.6850 (resistance around 1.4600). Next week from Australia we have business confidence, consumer sentiment, the wage price index and inflation expectations. While from Europe we get German economic sentiment, industrial production, GDP, inflation and the ECB’s monthly bulletin.
The current interbank midrate is:    AUDEUR 0.6944    EURAUD 1.4400

The interbank range this week has been:    AUDEUR 0.6923 - 0.7002    EURAUD 1.4282 - 1.4445
Tuesday 5th Aug 1:30PM (NZT)
The Australian dollar declined against the Euro in the middle of last week as the local currency under performed in the wake of strong US GDP numbers. The pair traded down towards 0.6920 (up towards 1.4451) before Friday’s softer than expected US employment figures caused a recovery. Since then the AUD has outperformed the EUR and the pair has recovered back toward resistance around 0.6960 (support around 1.4368). Direction from here will largely depend on the outcome of some key releases over the coming days. First up we have the RBA rate statement later this afternoon, then on Thursday we have Australian employment change data followed by the ECB rate meeting. Risks are slightly skewed towards a strong Australian dollar, although the pair will need to overcome the 0.6960 (1.4368) level, before a move back to 0.7000 (1.4286) can be considered.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
AUD/EURO 0.6940 0.6900 0.7100 0.6924 - 0.7007
EURO/AUD 1.4409 1.4085 1.4493 1.4272 - 1.4443

Friday 1st Aug 1:50PM (NZT)
This pair was trading in a very tight range up until the early hours of Thursday morning when US GDP hit the wires. That better than expected result saw some sharp movements in currencies and the Australian dollar was a big under performer. Against the Euro it quickly dropped from 0.6690 to 0.6936 (1.4947 to 1.4411) and we haven’t seen much in the way of an AUD bounce since then. This comes despite another soft reading from European inflation data that hit the wires last night. A move below 0.6935 (above 1.4420) would open the way for AUD losses to the 0.6880 (1.4535) area. US employment data tonight could easily cause further volatility and next week there will plenty of data to digest. From Australia we have retail sales, the RBA rate statement and employment data are all set for release. While from Europe the focus turns to the ECB rate meeting on Thursday.
The current interbank midrate is:    AUDEUR 0.6950    EURAUD 1.4388

The interbank range this week has been:    AUDEUR 0.6936 - 0.7010    EURAUD 1.4265 - 1.4418
Tuesday 29th July 1:30PM (NZT)
A combination of Euro weakness and Australian dollar strength saw the AUD make solid gains over the past week. Largely uninspiring data from Europe, along with recent easing’s from the ECB are starting to weigh on the Euro and we are now seeing a period of gradual declines in the value of the EUR. Of contrast was the Australian dollar that saw good buying after last week’s slightly better than expected inflation data and this help drive the pair to its 0.7035 high (1.4215 low). The risks are still skewed to the AUD topside and a continuation of the broad uptrend that started back in mid-March. Only a move below support at 0.6960 (resistance 1.4370) would bring that outlook into question. This week from Australia we get building approvals and producer prices data to digest, while from Europe the focus turns to German and Eurozone inflation, French consumer spending, and unemployment data
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
AUD/EURO 0.7000 0.6900 0.7100 0.6922 - 0.7035
EURO/AUD 1.4286 1.4085 1.4493 1.4214 - 1.4446

Friday 25th July 4:0PM (NZT)
The Australian dollar has this week broken up through recent highs against the Euro and now trades at the best level since November 2013. The pair has been driven here on the back of Euro weakness and Australian dollar strength. The Euro is finally starting to weaken and this could be the start of a broader trend. That would certainly please the ECB who aggressively took interest rates negative in June. The AUD on the other hand has been a solid performer this week, getting a boost from inflation data and better Chinese manufacturing numbers. As long as the pair holds above support at 0.6930 (resistance at 1.4430) the AUD upside remains the focus. Next week from Australia we have new home sales, building approvals, import prices and producer prices. While from Europe we have inflation, unemployment and German retail sales data to digest.
The current interbank midrate is:    AUDEUR 0.6992    EURAUD 1.4302

The interbank range this week has been:    AUDEUR 0.6905 - 0.7035    EURAUD 1.4214 - 1.4482
Tuesday 22th July 2:30PM (NZT)
Over the past week we have seen a small amount of Euro weakness thanks to continued soft data and Portuguese banking concerns. This was the main driver in pushing the pair back up toward recent highs around 0.6960 (lows 1.4370) on Friday. Since mid-June that level has capped the AUD topside and it continued to do its job this week as well. On the downside there is support around 0.6860 (resistance at 1.4580) and these two levels look likely to contain near term trade. Tomorrow we get Australian inflation data which will be closely watched. The market is expecting a reading of 0.5% and any significant deviation from that will elicit a response from the currency. From Europe we get manufacturing and service PMI’s along with German IFO business climate index.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
AUD/EURO 0.6933 0.6750 0.6950 0.6875 - 0.6952
EURO/AUD 1.4424 1.4368 1.4815 1.4384 - 1.4545

Friday 18th July 4:00PM (NZT)
This week has finally seen the Euro come under some pressure as data continues to disappoint and concerns around Portuguese banks came to the forefront. As a result of the declining Euro this pair made gains up to the 0.6940 (down to the 1.4409) level, before a bout of risk aversion in the last 12 hours triggered a pullback. The ‘risk off’ sentiment came as stock markets got sold in the wake of the Malaysian Airlines tragedy. The markets are likely to remain nervous over the weekend and as such we probably won’t see a quick recovery. The past month has seen mostly sideways action for this pair between 0.6850 and 0.6960 (1.4599 and 1.4368) and this weeks events have failed to change that. We can expect those levels to dominate into next week when we get inflation data from Australia and a speech from Governor Stevens. From Europe we also get manufacturing and service PMI data along with the German IFO business climate survey to digest.
The current interbank midrate is:    AUDEUR .6920    EURAUD 1.4451

The interbank range this week has been:    AUDEUR .6875 - .6939    EURAUD 1.4411 - 1.4545
Tuesday 15th July 1:05PM (NZT)
There has been no real direction in this pair over the past week with trading broadly contained between 0.6890 and 0.6920 (1.4450 - 1.4515). We did get a brief dip to 0.6868 (1.4560) in the wake of last Thursdays Australian employment data, but the pair quickly recovered. The fragile Eurozone recovery has kept the Euro subdued, while the AUD itself has mostly treaded water over the past week. We have the RBA minutes to digest in the coming hours and this could see some action, but markets in general have been pretty quiet lately, in part due to European summer holidays. ECB President Draghi is due to speak tonight and we also get the latest reading of German economic sentiment. This will be followed later in the week by inflation data. The broader trend for this pair is to the AUD topside and that will remain the case while the market holds above support around 0.6860 (resistance 1.4580).
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
AUD/EURO 0.6894 0.6750 0.6950 0.6868 - 0.6921
EURO/AUD 1.4505 1.4368 1.4815 1.4450 - 1.4560

Friday 11th July 1:30PM (NZT)
The Australian dollar gained ground against the Euro in the early stages of the week helped by improving business confidence. However yesterday’s disappointing employment data combined with some risk aversion over night to see the pair dip down to the weeks low at 0.6866 (high at 1.4565). We have seen a decent recovery from those lows but the weeks high of 0.6921 (low of 1.4449) doesn't look like it’s going to be threatened anytime soon. The pair has been ranging sideways between the broad parameters of 0.6860 and 0.6960 (1.4577 and 1.4368) for a month now, and we can expect more of the same next week. In Australia the focus now turns to the upcoming RBA minutes and business confidence data. While from Europe next week the highlights will be German economic sentiment and inflation data.
The current interbank midrate is:    AUDEUR 0.6900    EURAUD 1.4493

The interbank range this week has been:    AUDEUR 0.6866 - 0.6921    EURAUD 1.4450 - 1.4564
Tuesday 8th July 2:45PM (NZT)
For most of the past four weeks this pair has been ranging sideways between 0.6860 and 0.6960 (1.4577 and 1.4368). We did get a dip to 0.6851 (1.4596) last week as the Australian dollar came under some pressure after poor trade balance data and soft retail sales figures but the pair has recovered off those lows to currently trade around 0.6890 (1.4514). Data later this week in the form of Australian employment change will likely dictate near term direction. Ahead of that we have consumer sentiment to digest on Wednesday. European data this week is expected to reinforce the fragile nature of the economic recovery and should limit any potential Euro strength.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
AUD/EURO 0.6895 0.6750 0.6950 0.6851 - 0.6944
EURO/AUD 1.4503 1.4368 1.4815 1.4400 - 1.4597

Friday 4th July 12:30PM (NZT)
The past week has seen some good swings in this pair, but at the end of the day it is the Australian dollar that has underperformed. Early strength in the AUD was quickly reversed on Wednesday after shocking trade balance data. This was compounded yesterday by soft retail sales figure and negative comments from RBA Governor Stevens. As a result the AUD has fallen 90 points from the weeks high and is now only trading just above the weeks lows. The Euro itself has been under pressure this week with soft data reinforcing the fragile nature of the Eurozone economic recovery. Last night’s ECB meeting echoed this with president Draghi saying QE is still on the table for this year of the inflation outlook warrants it. While support around 0.6850 (1.4600 resistance) contains the downside we could easily see a bounce in the pair back toward 0.6900 (1.4460). A move down through 0.6850 (1.4600) would however open the way for a test of 0.6800 (1.4705).
The current interbank midrate is:    AUDEUR 0.6870    EURAUD 1.4556

The interbank range this week has been:    AUDEUR 0.6851 - 0.6944    EURAUD 1.4400 - 1.4597
Tuesday 1st July 2:15PM (NZT)
Over the last week this pair has continued to trade within the range that has established itself over the last month. The AUD looked to test resistance at .6950 through the middle of last week, before the demand for EURO returned. Direction from current levels looks uncertain as the RBA monetary policy statement later today offers the initial focus for the week. From there the focus moves to Europe for the most part, although Australian building approvals and retail sales data on Thursday will be watched. In Europe, ahead of the ECB monetary policy statement on Thursday, the unemployment and retail sales data will be closely monitored. It will take a material change in outlook from either central bank to break the resistance at .6950 (1.4400), albeit an unlikely proposition this week.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
AUD/EURO .6888 .6750 .6950 .6872 - .6936
EURO/AUD 1.4518 1.4400 1.4815 1.4382 - 1.4418

Friday 27th June 2:00PM (NZT) - Update
The improved Chinese manufacturing numbers saw the AUD pressure the EUR to resistance at .6950 (support 1.4400) early this week. This increased AUD demand was not to be sustained however, and the EUR saw resurgent demand through the belly of the week. The pair turned around at the .6875 (1.4550) level following the weak US GDP numbers, as yield chasing investors increased demand the Australian dollars again. From here the lead will come from the European inflation numbers on Monday, RBA monetary policy statement Tuesday, Australian building and retail sales data Thursday and finally the ECB monetary policy statement late Thursday. Expect no change from either central bank but the respective accompanying statements and press conference will provide the primary focuses of the week.
The current interbank midrate is:    AUDEUR .6920    EURAUD 1.4451

The interbank range this week has been:    AUDEUR .6872 - .6953    EURAUD 1.4382 - 1.4552
Tuesday 24th June 2:43PM (NZT)
The Australian dollar saw a material boost from the improved Chinese manufacturing numbers to start this week. The follow on from that saw this pair test the resistance at .6950 (support 1.4400), before the better US data saw the AUD demand taper off in the US session. This .6950 (1.4400) level remains the key in the short term. Given the environment in Europe, it seems likely that we see another test of this level at some stage soon. To that end the focus is completely on Europe this week. With little in the way of Australian news, the German business climate survey results and German inflation data will provide the primary drivers of the price action. Current levels offer good value buying of EURO, although this opportunity is likely to be ongoing.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
AUD/EURO .6930 .6750 .6950 .6880 - .6953
EURO/AUD 1.4430 1.4400 1.4815 1.4382 - 1.4536

Friday 20th June 2:00PM (NZT) - Update
The EUR has enjoying some renewed demand over the Australian dollar this week. The downward momentum on the AUD was only curbed by reaction to the FED’s monetary policy statement early yesterday AEST. The pair does seem more comfortable back from the recent EUR lows (AUD highs). Expect the wider trading range of .6750-.6950 (1.4400 - 1.4815) to contain the trading in the coming week, with the bulk of the focus coming from Europe in the absence of any material Australia news scheduled.
The current interbank midrate is:    AUDEUR .6910    EURAUD 1.4472

The interbank range this week has been:    AUDEUR .6880 - .6957    EURAUD 1.4373 - 1.4536
Tuesday 17th June 3:43PM (NZT)
After seeing so much pressure over the last couple of the weeks, the EURO is finally managing to claw back some ground against the Australian dollar. The last few days has seen a fall from the peak around .6950 (low 1.04390) to the current levels just above the .6900 (1.4500) level. A realisation that further policy accommodation from the ECB is some months, off eased the way for a EURO bounce. Today’s RBA minutes offered little of further insight, and now focus turns to the latest German economic sentiment numbers due later on today. If tensions in the Middle East escalate, the AUD could see further pressure as global risk aversion increases.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
AUD/EURO .6902 .6750 .6950 .6877 - .6962
EURO/AUD 1.4489 1.4400 1.4815 1.4364 - 1.4542

Friday 13th June 2:30PM (NZT) - Update
The Australian dollar has seen grinding appreciation over the widely pressured EUR throughout the course of this week.  Initial EUR resistance came from the .6880 (1.4535) level, but once this level gave way the way opened for further AUD outperformance. Given the ECB’s commitment to take extraordinary policy steps as required, there seems little chances of a material bounce from the EURO in the short term. Importantly, Monday sees the release of the latest European inflation numbers. Any number lower than the .5% expectation will see pressure on the EURO resume. The RBA monetary policy meeting minutes on Tuesday will be of passing focus, as the RBA look to leave monetary policy unchanged for quite sometime yet.
The current interbank midrate is:    AUDEUR 0.6944    EURAUD 1.4401

The interbank range this week has been:    AUDEUR 0.6825- 0.6924    EURAUD 1.4360 - 1.4651
Tuesday 10th June 1:00PM (NZT)
Although last week’s ECB meeting provided some volatility, it has only had muted overall effect on the Euro so far. Gains in this pair over the past week have largely come on the back of Australian dollar strength. The local currency has benefited from a stable outlook from the RBA and better than forecast GDP data. This has seen the pair trade up toward recent cycle highs and further gains look likely. I suspect the effects of a negative deposit rate at the ECB will gradually weigh on the Euro and this should support further gains in the pair over the medium term. This afternoon we get business confidence data from Australia and later in the week we have consumer sentiment and employment change figures to draw focus. Key support for the pair now comes in around 0.6815 (key resistance 1.4674) and as long as the market holds above there the risks are all skewed to the topside.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
AUD/EURO 0.6779 0.6740 0.6880 0.6782- 0.6889
EURO/AUD 1.4751 1.4577 1.4837 1.4515 - 1.4744

Friday 6th June 2:30PM (NZT) - Update
It has been a choppy week for this pairing that was initially driven by swings in the Australian dollar on the back of local data. Soft building consents figures saw the pair trade down to 0.6779 (up to 1.4751) before better GDP data helped produce a recovery. The real volatility however came on the back or last night’s ECB meeting. The Euro initially came under pressure on the announcement, but then it recovered strongly and as such we saw a spike high in the AUDEUR of 0.6889 (low of 1.4516 EURAUD). At the end of the day the pair has ended up close to where it began the week and price action like this is a good example of why working orders at specific levels can be a worthwhile approach. Further tests toward 0.6880 (1.4535) are likely over the coming week as the weight of negative interest rates weighs on the Euro.
The current interbank midrate is:    AUDEUR 0.6828    EURAUD 1.4646

The interbank range this week has been:    AUDEUR 0.6779- 0.6889    EURAUD 1.4515 - 1.4751
Tuesday 3rd June 6:30PM (NZT)
The past week has seen some volatility in the pair thanks in large part to movements in the Australian dollar. Capital expenditure forecasts for 2014/15 provided a boost for the local currency last week and this saw the pair trade up to 0.6857 (down to 1.4584) heading into the weekend. A large part of those gains have now been reversed after yesterday’s softer than expected building consents data which saw the AUD come under pressure. We still have the RBA rate statement to come this afternoon and later in the week from Australia we get GDP and the trade balance. But the biggest focus for the pair will be on the ECB meeting on Thursday evening. This will likely dictate direction for the near term and there could be substantial volatility around that announcement.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
AUD/EURO 0.6802 0.6740 0.6860 0.6775- 0.6857
EURO/AUD 1.4702 1.4577 1.4837 1.4583 - 1.4761

Friday 30th May 2:00PM (NZT) - Update
The past week has seen solid gains for this pair driven by a strong Australian dollar and a subdued Euro. A lack of interest to buy Euro’s ahead of next week’s key ECB meeting has kept the EUR under some pressure. On the other hand the AUD has found willing buyers who gained heart from yesterday’s capital expenditure data. That release saw the local currency surge higher and the pair now looks like testing the 2014 highs of 0.6866 (lows of 1.4565), set only a couple of weeks ago. Next week should prove to be very interesting with some sort of easing action by the ECB fully expected by the market.  The currencies reaction will depend on just how far the central bank goes and what potential combination of actions are undertaken. We also have the RBA meeting, although no surprises are expected there. From Australia we also get building consents, retail sales, GDP, and the trade balance.
The current interbank midrate is:    AUDEUR 0.6840    EURAUD 1.4620

The interbank range this week has been:    AUDEUR 0.6754- 0.6844    EURAUD 1.4611 - 1.4807
Tuesday 27th May 2:30PM (NZT)
Weakness in the Australian dollar in the early stages of last week drove this pair down to its 0.6724 low (1.4872 high). Since then however the AUD has stabilised, thanks in part to better Chinese manufacturing data, and we have seen a gradual recovery against the Euro. I would expect to see this AUD recovery continue over the coming days as recent comments from ECB President Draghi are digested by the market. He has made it clear that quantitative easing is certainly on the table for the central bank, and this shows they see the threat of inflation falling further. It may well prove to be the case that last week’s 0.6724 low (1.4872 high) is the bottom of the recent AUD pullback, with the risks at this point skewed to the topside. From Australia this week we get construction work done, new home sales, and private capital expenditure figures. While from Europe the highlights will be French consumer spending, German unemployment change, the money supply, and German retail sales.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
AUD/EURO 0.6776 0.6740 0.6860 0.6724- 0.6809
EURO/AUD 1.4758 1.4577 1.4837 1.4687 - 1.4872

Thursday 22nd May 3:30PM (NZT) - Update
This pair has seen a pull back from the recent highs over the past week thanks in large part to a soft Australian dollar. The AUD has been pressured by a continued fall in iron ore prices and declining consumer sentiment. These factors helped to drive the cross to its low of 0.6724 (high of 1.4872) last night. We have seen a small AUD bounce since then thanks to better than expected Chinese manufacturing data, which has given the AUD a much needed boost, but it’s likely to be short lived. Minor resistance around 0.6780 (support around 1.4749) will probably cap the AUD topside for now. Taking a look at the broader picture, the range of 0.6660 to 0.6860 (1.4580 - 1.5020) will likely define trading heading into June’s ECB rate meeting. Price action after that will be determined by just what action the ECB undertake. From Australia next week we get data on construction work done, new home sales, and private capital expenditure. While from Europe the highlights will be German consumer climate, unemployment and retail sales, along with French consumer spending and Eurozone money supply.
The current interbank midrate is:    AUDEUR 0.6776    EURAUD 1.4758

The interbank range this week has been:    AUDEUR 0.6724- 0.6865    EURAUD 1.4566 - 1.4872
Tuesday 20th May 3:00PM (NZT)
This pairing has seen solid gains since the beginning of May on the back of strength in the Australian dollar, and weakness in the Euro. The Euro weakness has come as a result of ECB President Draghi’s signal that further easing action is likely next month. It seems that the market how now largely priced that in and so further AUD gains in the pair will be harder fought. Some relative weakness in the AUD over the past week is starting to see a corrective pullback develop that could easily extend as far as 0.6740 (1.4837). As long as the pair holds above that level an eventual move back toward 0.6860 (1.4577) is favoured. Over the coming days from Australia we have consumer sentiment, the wage price index, and inflation expectations to draw focus. While from Europe we get manufacturing and service PMI’s along with the German business climate index.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
AUD/EURO 0.6791 0.6740 0.6860 0.6780- 0.6865
EURO/AUD 1.4725 1.4577 1.4837 1.4566 - 1.4750

Friday 16th May 2:00PM (NZT) - Update
For most of the past week we have seen a gradual appreciation of the Australian dollar over the Euro. This move has been driven by some relative strength in the AUD, but also by weakness in the Euro that continues to suffer from increasing expectation of policy easing’s by the ECB at next month’s meeting. Recent data has done nothing to counter that expectation and the question is not if, but what, action will be taken by the central bank in three weeks’ time. This outlook should keep the Euro under pressure in the near term. We did see a sharp AUD retracement last night as weak stock markets caused some risk off type moves, but the market has since stabilised. At this point dips are a AUD buying opportunity with the upside looking like the path of least resistance. Next week from Australia we have the RBA minutes along with consumer sentiment and the wage price index. While from Europe we get manufacturing and service PMI’s and the German IFO business climate index.
The current interbank midrate is:    AUDEUR 0.6719    EURAUD 1.4883

The interbank range this week has been:    AUDEUR 0.6757- 0.6865    EURAUD 1.4566 - 1.4799
Tuesday 13th May 2:00PM (NZT)
This pair saw the AUD race toward recent highs last week propelled by two events. The first was Australian employment data that came in better than expected. This caused a material increase in demand for Australian dollars. This was followed only a few hours later by the ECB rate meeting and the revelation from President Draghi that the central bank is likely to take further action next month. The Euro came under heavy selling pressure as a result and this pair continued its march higher. The early April high of 0.6823 (low of 1.4656) is within sight, although immediate direction will likely be dictated by this afternoon’s Australian budget. If we get dramatic spending cuts and / or tax increases this will dampen the economic outlook for Australia and weight on the AUD. This is unlikely however, with the government more likely to balance the need for fiscal prudence with the need to sustain the economic recovery.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
AUD/EURO 0.6799 0.6650 0.6820 0.6678- 0.6817
EURO/AUD 1.4708 1.4663 1.5038 1.4669 - 1.4974

Friday 9th May 2:00PM (NZT) - Update
After a couple of weeks of mostly sideways consolidation this pair broken higher and looks set to test towards Aprils 0.6823 high(1.4656 low). The move started on the back of a rally in the Australian dollar after yesterday’s better than expected employment numbers. Another sharp leg higher overnight was caused by weakness in the Euro after ECB President Draghi stressed his concern about the level of the EUR and gave his strongest indication yet that the central bank will likely take action next month. 0.6660 is now major support on the down side (1.5015 topside resistance), although it’s unlikely to be tested anytime soon. All the risks are skewed to the AUD upside and any move through 0.6823 (1.4650) will target the next resistance level f 0.6780 (1.4750 support). Locally next week we have business confidence and the annual budget to digest. While from Europe we have German economic sentiment numbers along with inflation and GDP data to draw focus.
The current interbank midrate is:    AUDEUR 0.6763    EURAUD 1.4786

The interbank range this week has been:    AUDEUR 0.6660- 0.6775    EURAUD 1.4759 - 1.5016
Tuesday 6th May 2:00PM (NZT)
There has been a lack of overall direction in this pair for much of the past two weeks. Soft data from both economies have kept their respective currencies very subdued and as such an increasingly tight trading range has developed. However, we do have plenty of fundamental releases this week that could spark some life into the cross. These start with the RBA meeting today and on Thursday evening the ECB hold their rate review. From Australia we also have retail sales and employment data to digest throughout the week. The key level to watch on the down side is support at 0.6650 (resistance at 1.5038), while initial topside resistance comes in around 0.6750 (support around 1.4815). A break of either of those two levels would likely signal a broader directional move is underway.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
AUD/EURO 0.6693 0.6650 0.6870 0.6658- 0.6740
EURO/AUD 1.4941 1.4556 1.5038 1.4836 - 1.5019

Friday 2nd May 3:00PM (NZT) - Update
This week has seen some volatility between 0.6660 and 0.6740 (1.5015 and 1.4837), but the net result is the Australian dollar now trades at a similar level to where it ended last week. Soft inflation, lending, and money supply data has weighed on the Euro, however the Australian dollar has failed to capitalize and has itself seen periods of pressure. Tonight’s US, and Eurozone, employment data could easily spark a move in the pair, although the key focus now turns to central bank meetings from each country next week. From Australia we also get building approvals, retail sales and employment change to throw in the mix.
The current interbank midrate is:    AUDEUR 0.6692    EURAUD 1.4943

The interbank range this week has been:    AUDEUR 0.6658- 0.6740    EURAUD 1.4836 - 1.5019
Tuesday 29th April 3:30PM (NZT)
The Australian dollar has lost substantial ground to the Euro over the past week. The majority of those losses came on the back of softer than expected Australian inflation data last week, and since then the pair has seen little respite. The past 24 hours has seen further downside pressure after Euro demand increased thanks to comments from ECB President Draghi. He downplayed the risk of quantitative easing in the near term, saying “QE is still a way off”. The pair is looking like it will test initial support around the 0.6650 (1.5038) area. Reaction there will be key for near term direction. Eurozone inflation and unemployment data will be a key focus this week along with German retail sales.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
AUD/EURO 0.6663 0.6650 0.6870 0.6663- 0.6793
EURO/AUD 1.5008 1.4556 1.5038 1.4721- 1.5008

Wednesday 23rd April 4:30PM (NZT) - Update
After largely directionless trading from much of the past week, the last couple of hours have seen a sharp fall in the AUD on this this pairing. The move comes on the back of Australian dollar weakness in the wake of softer than expected inflation data. This will only have served to cement the RBA neutral stance and eliminated any talk of potential rate rises later in the year. Minor support around 0.6735 (resistance around 1.4848) has contained the downside for now, although a move below there could well be seen over the coming days. That would likely trigger a bigger pullback targeting 0.6650 (rally to 1.5038) initially. Recent European data has been less than inspiring and tonight we get the latest PMI’s from the manufacturing and service sectors. These will be followed up tomorrow with German IFO business climate.
The current interbank midrate is:    AUDEUR 0.6737    EURAUD 1.4843

The interbank range this week has been:    AUDEUR 0.6735- 0.6794    EURAUD 1.4720- 1.4848
Thursday 17th April 3:30PM (NZT) - Update
This pair is currently trading bang in the middle of key support at 0.6650 and resistance at 0.6870 (resistance at 1.5038 and support at 1.4556). As such there has been little overall direction for the past week, with price action swinging back and forth on flows and minor news. Neither of those levels have been tested recently however, and with little overall direction we can expect similar price action heading into next week. The focus then turns to Australian inflation data which is set for release on Wednesday. From Europe next week we get manufacturing and service PMI’s from both France and Germany along with the German business climate index.
The current interbank midrate is:    AUDEUR 0.6773    EURAUD 1.4764

The interbank range this week has been:    AUDEUR 0.6740- 0.6824    EURAUD 1.4654- 1.4837
Tuesday 15th April 2:30PM (NZT)
We have seen some choppy trade for this pair over the course of the past week, the net result of which is that the Australian dollar continues to be very well supported against the Euro. Improving Australian data has certainly help sentiment towards the AUD, which is now nowhere near as negative as it has been for much of the past year. We did see a sharp bout of AUD weakness last Thursday evening on the back of stock market concerns, but in a show of strength, the currency quickly recovered all those losses. The Euro on the other hand has come under some pressure recently as officials try to ‘jawbone’ it lower with talk of QE. We could easily see and extension of recent gains in the pair to the next level of resistance around 0.6900 (support around 1.4493). The RBA minutes this afternoon provided little in the way of surprise, and we will the latest business confidence and motor vehicle sales that will follow later in the week from Australia. From Europe attention will turn to German economic sentiment, CPI, and the current account.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
AUD/EURO 0.6798 0.6650 0.6870 0.6740- 0.6824
EURO/AUD 1.4710 1.4556 1.5038 1.4654- 1.4837

Friday 11th April 3:30PM (NZT) - Update
This pair rallied for much of the week on the back of a strong Australian dollar. The high at 0.6804 (low 1.4697) was set in the wake of better than expected employment data released from Australia yesterday. We have however, seen a sharp reversal from those highs caused by poor Chinese trade data and stock market nervousness. Although the broad uptrend is still intact, we are close to key support which, if broken, would warn of a deeper correction. At the moment that level comes in around 0.6730 (1.4860). A move through there would target 0.6660 (1.5015) and then 0.660 (1.5151). The RBA minutes set for release on Tuesday next week will be of particular focus. While from Europe we get industrial production, German economic sentiment, the trade balance, and inflation.
The current interbank midrate is:    AUDEUR 0.6753    EURAUD 1.4808

The interbank range this week has been:    AUDEUR 0.6727- 0.6824    EURAUD 1.4654- 1.4866
Tuesday 8th April 1:30PM (NZT)
This pair has been in the throes of a strong AUD uptrend since early March. Early last week we saw a minor correction lower with the pair retracing to 0.6685 ( up to 1.4959), but in the latter stages of the week the AUD was again in demand. This was driven by Euro weakness on the back of QE talk from the ECB, and some relative AUD strength in the wake of Friday’s US employment data release. The pair briefly traded to its highest level since November before retracing back to the 0.6740 (1.4837) where it currently sits. The risks remain skewed to the AUD topside with a medium term target of 0.6870 (1.4556), while the downside is protected by key support at 0.6650 (resistance at 1.5038). The focus this week will be on Australian employment data released on Thursday. Of lesser importance will be Euro data in the form of German trade balance and French industrial production.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
AUD/EURO 0.6749 0.6650 0.6870 0.6685- 0.6804
EURO/AUD 1.4817 1.4556 1.5038 1.4698 - 1.4960

Friday 4th April 1:30PM (NZT) - Update
It has been a largely uneventful week for this pairing with the two central bank meetings providing only a small amount of volatility. Some relative weakness in the Australian dollar saw the cross retreat from recent highs and trade down toward 0.6680 (1.4970) heading into last night’s ECB meeting. Australian data has generally been softer than expected this week and with commodity prices coming under some pressure the AUD has seen demand wane. European data has also been a little disappointing and although the ECB didn’t take any further action last night, it was revealed that they had discussed at length a policy of quantitative easing. This saw the Euro come under pressure and as a result the cross to the AUD has bounced a touch. While support at 0.6680 (1.4970) contains the downside the risk is for another test of recent highs at 0.6763 (1.4786). Any move below 0.6680 (1.4970) would signal a deeper correction is underway which should target 0.6600 (1.5152) initially. Next week’s German trade balance and French industrial production will be the highlights from Europe. While from Australia we have business confidence and employment change to draw focus.
The current interbank midrate is:    AUDEUR 0.6730    EURAUD 1.4859

The interbank range this week has been:    AUDEUR 0.6594- 0.6763    EURAUD 1.4786 - 1.5164
Tuesday 1st April 1:30PM (NZT)
The Australian dollar’s appreciation against the Euro continued unabated last week. Strength in the AUD was the driving force, although the EUR has also been weighed on by soft data. We saw a continuation of that trend with the release of Eurozone CPI last night which came in below expectation. This does put some pressure on the ECB to act, although most in the market expect them to hold fire at this week’s meeting. The immediate focus is on the RBA’s rate meeting and statement later this afternoon. The lack of negative AUD comments from officials last week help underwrite the currencies move higher, so the market will be keen to see what Governor Stevens makes of the AUD’s current level. I would not be surprised to see the Governor try to ‘talk the AUD down’ to a degree. Also this week from Australia we have building approval and retail sales to digest, while from Europe we get unemployment and retail sales data ahead of the ECB meeting on Thursday.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
AUD/EURO 0.6730 0.6600 0.6800 0.6594- 0.6763
EURO/AUD 1.4859 1.4706 1.5152 1.4786 - 1.5164

Friday 28th March 12:30PM (NZT) - Update
This AUD has been in a powerful up move since the early stages of March. But the pace of that move accelerated this week, driven by a combination of Australian dollar strength and Euro weakness. The Euro has been weighed on by soft data and ‘dovish’ comments from ECB officials. The AUD on the other hand has benefited from a lack of ‘jawboning’ from central bank officials, who seem to have made a conscious decision to not try and ‘talk the currency down’. The market has obviously also been very short (sold) Australian dollars and those positions look like they are been squeezed out. With the rally have broken above key resistance around 0.6660(support 1.5015) there is potential for further gains. 0.6870 (1.4550) looks like the next key AUD resistance level and there could be plenty next week to drive it there. From Europe we have the ECB meeting to digest along with inflation, retail sales, GDP, and unemployment. From Australia we also have the RBA meeting and retail sales set for release.
The current interbank midrate is:    AUDEUR 0.6738    EURAUD 1.4841

The interbank range this week has been:    AUDEUR 0.6556- 0.6742    EURAUD 1.4831 - 1.5254
Tuesday 25th March 2:00PM (NZT)
Although we have seen somewhat supportive data coming out of Europe recently, this pair has continued to appreciate on the back of strength in the AUD. The strong performance of the Australian dollar over the past few days has been even more impressive considering the soft Chinese manufacturing data that was released yesterday. The move could extend further too as the AUD has shown no signs of turning around at this point. A test of resistance around 0.6650 (support around 1.5038) could easily be on the cards in the near term. From Australia tomorrow we get the RBA’s financial stability review and a subsequent speech from Governor Stevens. This is followed by the German business climate index tomorrow night and consumer climate index the night after.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
AUD/EURO 0.6606 0.6450 0.6650 0.6507 - 0.6627
EURO/AUD 1.5138 1.5038 1.5504 1.5090 - 1.5368

Friday 21st March 2:00PM (NZT) - Update
The Australian dollar has continued to appreciate against the Euro over the course of the week. Improving risk sentiment and a very neutral minutes from the RBA have helped support the local currency. The Euro itself has been under the gun somewhat this week, weighed on by soft data in the form a downward revision to inflation and much weaker than expected economic sentiment numbers. The target at this point is a test of the 0.6600 (1.5152) level, although it does seem upward momentum is waning a little. Downside support comes in at 0.6530 (resistance at 1.5314), and as long as this level contains any weakness, the focus will remain on the topside. With little set for release from Australia next week attention will turn to European data in the form of manufacturing and service PMI data, German business climate and German retail sales.
The current interbank midrate is:    AUDEUR 0.6563    EURAUD 1.5237

The interbank range this week has been:    AUDEUR 0.6472 - 0.6573    EURAUD 1.5214 - 1.5451
Tuesday 18th March 3:30PM (NZT)
Last Thursday’s Australian employment data saw the AUD surge against most other currencies. The much stronger than expected result saw the rate against the Euro jump to 0.6520. Some of those gains were reversed heading into the weekend as the Ukrainian situations caused a round of risk aversion. But after a peaceful referendum and lack of any strong action from the west, we have seen a notable increase in risk appetite again in the early stages of this week. This has supported the AUD and seen the cross to the Euro trade up to 0.6540. Last night’s downward revision to Euro area inflation has also helped by putting some pressure on the EUR. There is certainly plenty of room on the topside before this pair runs into any real resistance. 0.6600 would be that level, although that seems a long way off for the AUD at the moment. With little else in the way of domestic data this week the focus turns to Europe and the release of German economic sentiment, the current account, and consumer confidence.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
AUD/EURO 0.6522 0.6450 0.6650 0.6437 - 0.6543
EURO/AUD 1.5333 1.5038 1.5504 1.5284 - 1.5535

Thursday 13th March 5:00PM (NZT) - Update
For much of this week the Australian dollar lost ground to the Euro on the back of weakness in the local currency. Soft readings on business confidence and consumer sentiment weighed as did concerns around credit defaults in China and falling commodity prices. The Euro on the other hand has remained well supported in the wake of last weeks ‘no change’ decision from the ECB. In the last few hours though, we have seen Australian employment data hit the wires. This result surprised many coming in much stronger than expected. As a result demand for Australian dollar surged and this pairing jumped quickly from 0.6470 to 0.6520. (1.5456 to 1.5337). We could easily see further gains in the near term with no key resistance level until the cross reaches 0.6600. The highlight from next week’s economic releases will be the RBA minutes on Tuesday. While from Europe we get the latest manufacturing and services numbers, ahead of Friday’s consumer confidence data.
The current interbank midrate is:    AUDEUR 0.6520    EURAUD 1.5337

The interbank range this week has been:    AUDEUR 0.6437 - 0.6597    EURAUD 1.5158 - 1.5535
Tuesday 11th March 3:00PM (NZT)
This pair has seen very interesting price action over the last week. The AUD saw early demand over the EURO, as increased risk appetite combined with the better Australian economic data. However, this dominance was not to last, and as a result of the ECB’s ‘no change’ rate decision on Thursday the EURO has clawed back much of the lost ground. So the increasingly familiar range continues to dominate. Support toward 0.6450 (Resistance 1.5500) and resistance around 0.6650 (support 1.5040) look likely to contain trading over the coming weeks. Australian employment numbers this Thursday provide the local focus, while from Europe we only have German trade balance, Euro-area industrial production, and the ECB monthly bulletin of any note.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
AUD/EURO 0.6508 0.6450 0.6650 0.6491 - 0.6600
EURO/AUD 1.5366 1.5038 1.5504 1.5150 - 1.5406

Thursday 6th March 8:30PM (NZT) - Update
This week so far has seen a complete reversal of the pressure on the AUD from the EURO. The combination of easing of tensions in the Ukraine, and positive economic news in Australia has enable this impressive reversal. The largest move came after today’s strong retail sales numbers and the next couple of sessions will be crucial to see the current momentum can be extended. Of course the ECB meeting tonight holds the immediate focus, and there remains a chance of material impact should there be a policy adjustment. Next week the primary focus for this pair will be the Australian employment numbers, in the absence of any tip tier economic news due for release in Europe.
The current interbank midrate is:    AUDEUR 0.6568    EURAUD 1.5225

The interbank range this week has been:    AUDEUR 0.6452 - 0.6578    EURAUD 1.5200 - 1.5500
Tuesday 4th March 2:00PM (NZT)
The Australian dollar traded very heavily last week weighed on by poor economic releases. The Euro itself was under some pressure for much of the week and this limited the downside for the pair, at least until Friday evening. That was when Euro area inflation data hit the wires and the somewhat surprising small uptick caused an immediate increase in demand for Euros. This saw the cross to the AUD plummet through 0.6500 (1.5385) and the losses continued in early trade on Monday morning after escalating tensions in the Ukraine cased a small ‘risk off’ move. The week has only just begun however and there could be plenty of further volatility with some key events over the coming days. The immediate focus turns to the RBA rate statement out later this afternoon, which should see no change to current monetary policy settings. The same cannot be said for the ECB rate meeting on Thursday which could well yield a surprise. Granted, Friday’s better than expected CPI data has reduced the risk of action from the ECB, it is however far from off the table. Also from Australia this week we have GDP, retail sales, and the trade balance. While from Europe we have services PMI, retail sales, revised GDP, and German factory orders all to digest ahead of Thursday’s ECB meeting.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
AUD/EURO 0.6499 0.6450 0.6650 0.6452 - 0.6586
EURO/AUD 1.5387 1.5038 1.5504 1.5184 - 1.5499

Friday 28th February 3:00PM (NZT) - Update
Australasian currencies made some good gains in the early stages of this week and this help drive the AUD up to 0.6586 (down to 1.5184) against the Euro. There didn’t seem to be any key driver for the move however, and as a result the Australian dollar proceeded to drift lower giving back some of the gains. That retracement gained pace yesterday after poor data on Australian private capital expenditure. This put the AUD under all sorts of pressure and send the cross back towards 0.6500 (1.5385). European data has largely failed to impress this week as well. The key event is still to come however, with Euro area inflation data set for release tonight. German inflation was out last night and it showed consumer prices have moderated a touch in that country. If that proves to be the case for the broader Euro area,  expectations for action from the ECB next week will be raised dramatically. Next week could prove to be a volatile one with plenty of release from both countries. From Australia we get building approvals, the RBA rate meeting, GDP, retail sales, and the trade balance. While from Europe we have manufacturing and service PMI data along with German factory orders and the ECB rate meeting.
The current interbank midrate is:    AUDEUR 0.6539    EURAUD 1.5293

The interbank range this week has been:    AUDEUR 0.6508 - 0.6586    EURAUD 1.5184 - 1.5366
Tuesday 25th February 3:00PM (NZT)
The current level of 0.6575 (1.5209) for this pairing is broadly consistent with where it was trading this time last week. Between now and then however we have seen a bout of AUD weakness that took the pair down to 0.6500 (up to 1.5385) before recovering. To be fair, the focus for this AUD remained on the downside until last night when a bout of relative strength in Australasian currencies saw good gains made on a number of crosses. This has taken the immediate pressure off the AUD downside, although gains from here should prove harder to come by. The key focus data wise for the week will be on the flash reading of European inflation set for release on Friday. This will be crucial in influencing any potential action from the ECB when they meet next week.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
AUD/EURO 0.6581 0.6450 0.6650 0.6500 - 0.6626
EURO/AUD 1.5195 1.5038 1.5504 1.5092 - 1.5385

Friday 21st February 1:30PM (NZT) - Update
Weakness in the Australian dollar during the middle part of this week was the main driver for this pair. The downside accelerated yesterday after very soft Chinese manufacturing data weighed heavily on the AUD, but since then we have seen a sharp recovery from those lows. European data has been less than inspiring lately and this should keep the downside of the pair limited to support around the 0.6450 (1.5504) level. European inflation data will be very closely watched next week with any further weakness likely to elicit a response from the ECB and their next meeting.
The current interbank midrate is:    AUDEUR 0.6569    EURAUD 1.5223

The interbank range this week has been:    AUDEUR 0.6500 - 0.6626    EURAUD 1.5092 - 1.5385
Tuesday 18th February 3:00PM (NZT)
After making gains in the early stages of last week this pair suffered at the hands of soft Australian employment data on Thursday. We have seen a small recovery from the post-employment data lows of 0.6546, but the cross looked to have run out of steam around 0.6000. I suspect at some point soon the downside will be tested again. In the event of further strengthen, the pair will run into strong resistance around 0.6660 which should cap the topside. There is little in the way of data from Australia for the rest of the week, while from Europe we get German economic sentiment, manufacturing and service PMI’s, and Eurozone consumer confidence.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
AUD/EURO 0.6620 0.6450 0.6650 0.6546 - 0.6671
EURO/AUD 1.5106 1.5038 1.5504 1.5277 - 1.5672

Friday 14th February 1:30PM (NZT) - Update
For much of the week the Australian dollar gained against the Euro. Solid business confidence data from Australia on Tuesday set momentum upward and further gains we seen when the Euro came under pressure thanks to comments from ECB’s Corure. He said the central bank was looking very closely indeed at a move to negative interest rates. But levels over 0.6650 (below 1.5040) were not to last long. Yesterday’s poor reading on Australian employment change saw the AUD get smashed. This drove the pair down toward 0.6560 (up to 1.5245) where it currently trades. The sharp rejection from AUD resistance around 0.6650 (1.5040) has left the pair looking vulnerable, and I would expect further downside price action over the coming week. Initial support comes in around 0.6530 (resistance 1.5315) with a move below there opening the way for losses toward 0.6400 (1.5625).
The current interbank midrate is:    AUDEUR 0.6578    EURAUD 1.5202

The interbank range this week has been:    AUDEUR 0.6528 - 0.6671   EURAUD 1.5314 - 1.5672
Tuesday 11th February 3:00PM (NZT)
The early part of last week saw the Australian dollar make solid gains against the Euro thanks in large part to the RBA’s very neutral rate statement. Solid readings from retail sales and the trade balance also underpinned the AUD. The cross traded up to resistance at 0.6650 (support at 1.5038) before retreating after the ECB undertook no action at their rate meeting on Thursday evening. That lack of action saw demand for Euro’s increase and this has pressured the cross to give up around 100 points. I would expect 0.6650 (1.5038) to continue to cap AUD gains as it is a big resistance level. The pair hasn’t traded above there since early April last year. Selling AUD strength towards that level is there for recommended. Australian employment data on Thursday will be closely watched as will Euro area GDP results set for release on Friday.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
AUD/EURO 0.6570 0.6450 0.6650 0.6460 - 0.6653
EURO/AUD 1.5221 1.5038 1.5504 1.5314 - 1.5672

Friday 7th February 3:30PM (NZT) - Update
Solid gains this week for the Australian dollar have translated into a substantial recovery for this the AUD over the EUR. Those AUD gains were largely on the back of the RBA’s very neutral policy statement. The central bank also dropped any reference to the currency being overvalued which helped increase support. The cross briefly tested resistance at 0.6650 (support at 1.5038) heading into last night’s ECB rate announcement, but since then the Euro itself has gained some support which has pushed this pairing back below 0.6600 (1.5152) for the time being. 0.6650 (1.5038) is a key level for near term direction in this pair. I suspect is will continue to cap attempts to the topside for the AUD, but if it is overcome the way will be open for broader gains toward 0.6880 (1.4535).
The current interbank midrate is:    AUDEUR 0.6576    EURAUD 1.5207

The interbank range this week has been:    AUDEUR 0.6460 - 0.6653   EURAUD 1.5314 - 1.5672
Tuesday 4th February 3:00PM (NZT)
The Australian dollar has continued to regain lost ground against the Euro over the past week. This corrective recovery has been helped by softer readings on German and Euro-area inflation. These readings increase the pressure on the ECB to act against the threat of deflation. Whether we get something from them at this week’s meeting or perhaps next month remains to be seen, but they will certainly be very uncomfortable with recent weakness in consumer prices. The immediate focus is however the RBA rate statement later this afternoon. With Australian inflation recently surprising on the strong side the RBA are likely to deliver a very neutral statement which will be a step away from the slightly more ‘dovish’ stance taken previously. These two central bank events will provide the lead for this pair in the near term.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
AUD/EURO 0.6470 0.6350 0.6550 0.6381 - 0.6530
EURO/AUD 1.5456 1.5267 1.5748 1.5314 - 1.5672

Friday 31st January 4:00PM (NZT) - Update
Early this week the AUD managed to take back some of its recently lost ground to the EUR. Overnight it got another boost from the nice improvement on risk appetite, and it looks to have arrested its negative momentum for the time being. This has occurred in an absence of local economic data, but does come ahead of the RBA meeting next week. Following the higher than expected inflation numbers last week the odds on a “dovish” bias from the RBA has reduced, and this goes a small way to explaining the price action. The European focus in the near term will be tonights inflation numbers as they could well direct the ECB as their monetary policy meeting approaches next week. In the near term a brake of the .6500 level (1.5400) would open up the way for further EURO underperformance.

The current interbank midrate is:    AUDEUR 0.6490    EURAUD 1.5408

The interbank range this week has been:    AUDEUR 0.6343 - 0.6490   EURAUD 1.5409 - 1.5766
Tuesday 28th January 4:30PM (NZT)
The positive impact of stronger than expected inflation data out of Australia last week was very short lived. The Australian dollar was then hurt by soft Chinese manufacturing data and emerging market concerns. This combined with better than expected data from Europe on both the manufacturing and service sectors to see the AUDEUR head to fresh cycle lows, albeit only briefly. We have seen a recovery of sorts since the low of 0.6319 traded on Friday however it is yet to even threaten initial resistance around 0.6450. While the market trades below this level the risks are all still skewed to the downside. Later in the week from Australia we get readings on new home sales and producer prices. While from Europe we get have a lot of second tier German data set for release, along with the more important Eurozone inflation and unemployment rate.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
AUD/EURO 0.6420 0.6250 0.6450 0.6319 - 0.6561
EURO/AUD 1.5576 1.5504 1.6000 1.5242 - 1.5825

Friday 24th January 2:00PM (NZT) - Update
This pair had a quiet start to the week trading a tight range around 0.6500. That relative calm was shattered when Australian inflation data hit the wires and printed a lot stronger than expected. The AUD materially outperformed the Euro for the next 10 hours or so, but the gains could not be sustained. Yesterday's release of soft Chinese manufacturing data then weighed on the Australian dollar, as did a re-emergence of emerging market concerns overnight. At the same time the EUR benefited from better readings on the manufacturing and service sectors and these dual drivers have seen the pair lose substantial ground in the last 24 hours. The risks are all still skewed to the AUD downside, particularly while the pair holds below resistance around 0.6450. From Australia next week we have business confidence, new home sales, and producer prices data to digest. While from the Eurozone we mainly have German data to focus on. The highlights of which will be German retail sales and business climate index.
The current interbank midrate is:    AUDEUR 0.6407    EURAUD 1.5608

The interbank range this week has been:    AUDEUR 0.6384 - 0.6561   EURAUD 1.5242 - 1.5664
Tuesday 21st January 3:00PM (NZT)
The Australian dollar has had a tough week against many other currencies and the Euro is no exception. Resistance at 0.6650 (support 1.5038) capped the topside early last week and the resulting pullback accelerated after very soft Australian employment data on Thursday. This saw the pair quickly trade down to support at 0.6450 (resistance 1.5504) and the recovery from those lows has lacked any real momentum. This keeps the focus on the downside heading into tomorrow’s Australian inflation data. The AUD will not react well to further soft figures. From Europe tonight we German economic sentiment figures. These are followed later in the week by manufacturing and service PMI’s and the current account balance.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
AUD/EURO 0.6511 0.6450 0.6650 0.6450 - 0.6651
EURO/AUD 1.5359 1.5040 1.5500 1.5035 - 1.5504

Friday 17th January 2:00PM (NZT) - Update
Gains for the Australian dollar early in the week could not be sustained and as the AUD turned lower, so did this pair. The downside accelerated yesterday after Australian employment came in surprisingly weak and there has been little in the way of a recovery from the lows so far. Data from Europe this week has had no real impact, although that may not be the case next week when we get figures on economic sentiment, French and German manufacturing, and the current account. In Australia the focus will be on consumer confidence and inflation data out on Wednesday. Minor support around 0.5450 (resistance 1.8350) is currently protecting the recent cycle lows of 0.5412 (highs 1.8477), although these levels may well be tested again soon.
The current interbank midrate is:    AUDEUR 0.6477    EURAUD 1.5439

The interbank range this week has been:    AUDEUR 0.6450 - 0.6651   EURAUD 1.5035 - 1.5504
Tuesday 14th January 3:30PM (NZT)
There was little overall direction for this pair last week until late on Friday evening when US employment data hit the wires. That very soft result saw funds quickly flow out of USD’s and the Australian dollar was a much bigger benefactor than the Euro. As a result the AUD leapt higher and the momentum has continued in the last 24 hours that pushed resistance at 0.6650 (support EURAUD at 1.5038). So far that has capped the AUD topside, but further gains cannot be ruled out. A sustained move up through 0.6650 (down through 1.5038) would signal a much broader correction is under way. In that case the next target would be 0.6880 (1.4535). Domestically this week the focus is on Australian employment data set for release on Friday. From Europe however we have industrial production, trade balance, the second reading of inflation, and the ECB monthly bulletin.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
AUD/EURO 0.6608 0.6450 0.6650 0.6512 - 0.6651
EURO/AUD 1.5133 1.5040 1.5500 1.5035 - 1.5365

Friday 10th January 3:00PM (NZT) - Update
This pair has traded a relatively contained range so far this week, with both currencies being vulnerable at times. The EUR saw pressure early in the week, but ran into support and managed to consolidate off its lows even after yesterdays “dovish” ECB meeting. Direction from the current levels is not clear in the short term. The Australian dollar’s vulnerability is likely to continue on the short term, but this is balanced by the ECB’s commitment to provide further policy accommodation of some description if required. Given the EUR’s relatively strong performance throughout its banking crisis, the bias is probably still towards further AUD weakness on this pairing. Next week’s focus comes in the form of the Australian employment numbers and European inflation data, which are both due for release on Thursday.
The current interbank midrate is:    AUDEUR 0.6538    EURAUD 1.5295

The interbank range this week has been:    AUDEUR 0.6512 - 0.6610   EURAUD 1.5129 - 1.5326
Tuesday 7th January 2:30PM (NZT)
This pair has continued to establish itself in the increasingly familiar range that has established over the last month or so. The last week has seen the AUD grindingly outperform the EURO. However the resistance at .6650 (support 1.5040) has not really be tested. This will remain the vulnerable side of the .6450 - .6650 (1.5040 - 1.5500) recent trading range. After today’s Australian trade balance revealed a better than expected result, the Australian focus shifts to the latest building permit and retail sales numbers on Thursday. In Europe, retail sales and employment numbers tomorrow come ahead of consumer confidence, business sentiment numbers and the much anticipated ECB monetary policy announcement on Thursday
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
AUD/EURO 0.6565 0.6450 0.6650 0.6430 - 0.6615
EURO/AUD 1.5232 1.5040 1.5500 1.5117 - 1.5553

Friday 20th December 1:30PM (NZT) - Update
There hasn’t been a lot of direction in this pair over the course of the week. Some relative underperformance by the AUD in the middle of the week saw the pair drift down to fresh lows around the 0.6460 (1.5480) level. There wasn’t a lot of momentum however, and aside from some volatile price action after the Fed tapering announcement, the cross has mostly just drifted sideways since. Direction from here is a very tough call. Further AUD downside is the obvious risk, but there seems little impetus to drive the pair lower in the near term. This in itself could cause an AUD bounce  / recovery back toward the 0.6600 (1.5152) level where I can only imagine there will be plenty of AUD sellers. Thin Christmas liquidity could well aid any potential squeeze higher but look for 0.6600 or 0.6650 (1.5152  or 1.5038) to cap any near term AUD strength.
The current interbank midrate is:    AUDEUR 0.6497    EURAUD 1.5392

The interbank range this week has been:    AUDEUR 0.6433 - 0.6521   EURAUD 1.5335 - 1.5545
Tuesday 17th December 2:00PM (NZT)
This pair lost a lot of ground in the middle of last week as the Australian dollar came under renewed pressure. Comments from RBA Governor Stevens saw the pair trade down toward 0.6480 (up to 1.5432) and there has been little in the way of a meaningful bounce since then. The EUR has ignored much of the disappointing data recently and continues to surprise many with it relative performance. However, the Australian dollar is suffering from very negative sentiment at the moment and even last Thursday’s better than expected employment numbers failed to give it a boost. Near term direction is likely to be dominated by the Fed’s announcement on Thursday morning our time. This is too close to call, but its impact will likely be large especially considering the reduced market liquidity only a week out from Christmas. 0.6650 (1.5038) marks the big first AUD resistance level should the topside be tested. While below there the downside is still in focus.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
AUD/EURO 0.6495 0.6450 0.6650 0.6481 - 0.6656
EURO/AUD 1.5396 1.5038 1.5504 1.5230 - 1.5430

Friday 13th December 2:30PM (NZT) - Update
The EUR continues to surprise many with its relative strength, especially in light of some very average data coming from the region. This firm Euro has combined with an Australian dollar that has been under the gun for the last couple of days. Better than expected Australian employment data yesterday did little to turn the tide, and the AUD really got hit after comments from RBA governor Stevens hit the wires. He suggest an AUDUSD rate of 0.8500 was ‘closer to the mark’ than 0.9500. This saw sharp losses and the AUDEUR traded down to 0.6481 (EURAUD up to 1.5430) as a result. We are now in the throes of a strong down leg for the pair that started around 0.7100 (up leg 1.4085) back in early November. It is difficult to know just where the AUD will find support as we are now trading at levels last seen in 2010. The only certainty is that there is solid resistance around 0.6650 (support 1.5038) and while the cross hold below there the AUD downside is the main focus. There is not much out in the way of data next week from Australia with the highlight being minutes from the last RBA meeting on Tuesday. From Europe however, we get manufacturing and service PMI’s, the trade balance, German economic sentiment and German business climate.
The current interbank midrate is:    AUDEUR 0.6501    EURAUD 1.5382

The interbank range this week has been:    AUDEUR 0.6481 - 0.6656   EURAUD 1.5024 - 1.5430
Tuesday 10th December 2:00PM (NZT)
The Australian dollar lost ground to the Euro last week weighed on by the RBA and a soft GDP figure. Data out of Europe has been less than convincing as well, but the Euro continues to surprise many with its resilience. The pair traded down towards 0.6600 (up towards 1.5152) after the ECB’s rate statement on Thursday night and since then we have seen little in the way of a meaningful AUD bounce. On Friday evening in the wake of the US employment report there was some very choppy price action. This saw fresh cycles lows of 0.6595 (highs 1.5163) briefly trade before the pair quickly rallied to 0.6660 (1.5015). But those gains didn’t last and last night the AUD came back under pressure and again looks likely to test 0.6600 (1.5152). From Australia this week we have consumer sentiment, inflation expectations, and employment data to digest. While from Europe we have industrial production, the ECB monthly report, and couple of speeches from President Draghi to draw focus.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
AUD/EURO 0.6615 0.6600 0.6800 0.6595 - 0.6755
EURO/AUD 1.5117 1.4706 1.5152 1.4804 - 1.5165

Friday 6th December 3:00PM (NZT) - Update
Gains early in the week for this pair were very short lived and renewed Australian dollar weakness eventually took its toll. The AUD came under pressure after the RBA rate statement and then again in the wake of the poor GDP figure. The break below support around 0.6650 (resistance around 1.5038) was a negative signal the pair, and it failed on a number of attempts to regain a foothold above that level. Last night the market was surprised by the very neutral tone of the ECB after their rate announcement and this caused a spike in demand for Euros. That saw the cross to the Australian dollar trade to the weeks low of 0.6604 (high 1.5142). While the pair continues to hold below 0.6650 (1.5038) the risks are all skewed to the downside and we could easily see fresh AUD cycle lows in the coming sessions. From Australia next week we have business confidence, consumer sentiment, and employment change data. While from Europe there is a lot of second tier data with the highlights being German trade balance and Eurozone industrial production.
The current interbank midrate is:    AUDEUR 0.6627    EURAUD 1.5090

The interbank range this week has been:    AUDEUR 0.6604 - 0.6755    EURAUD 1.4804 - 1.5142
Tuesday 3rd December 2:30PM (NZT)
Relative weakness in the Australian dollar has seen this pair lose a lot of ground over the past couple of weeks. European data has also left a lot to be desired, but this didn’t stop the cross trading to a low of 0.6652 (high 1.5033) on Friday. We have seen a small AUD bounce since then, thanks in part to poor data on German retail sales and French consumer spending which put the Euro under some pressure. Good Chinese manufacturing data over the weekend helped to support the AUD early on Monday, but the currency gave back some ground after local manufacturing data surprised to the downside. Near term direction will be dictated by the RBA rate statement out later today. We can expect no change in rates, and the RBA will likely signal that they still see the currency as being overvalued. This will be followed by GDP data on Wednesday and trade balance figures on Thursday. From Europe we have service sector PMI and retail sales data to digest ahead of the ECB rate decision on Thursday evening.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
AUD/EURO 0.6725 0.6650 0.6850 0.6652 - 0.6797
EURO/AUD 1.4870 1.4599 1.5038 1.4712 - 1.5033

Friday 29th November 3:30PM (NZT)
There has been little in the way of key data from Europe this week, and what has been release has been patchy at best. That hasn’t stopped the Euro outperforming the Australian dollar though as negative sentiment continues to weigh of the local currency. We did get some much better than expected capital expenditure data from Australia yesterday, and his gave the currency a temporary boost. But in the last few hours we have again seen some relative weakness which has set fresh lows for the week at 0.6667 (highs 1.4999). There is some support around 0.6660 (resistance 1.5015), and this may contain further AUD downside for now. But there is plenty of data out next week from both countries and those releases will dictate what direction the pair takes from here. From Australia we have building approvals, retail sales, the RBA rate statement, GDP, and the trade balance. While from Europe we have retails sales data and the revised GDP figures ahead of the ECB interest rate meeting.
The current interbank midrate is:    AUDEUR 0.6660    EURAUD 1.5015

The interbank range this week has been:    AUDEUR 0.6655 - 0.6797   EURAUD 1.4712 - 1.5026
Tuesday 26th November 4:30PM (NZT)
The Australian dollar dramatically underperformed the Euro last week and a number of factors weighed on the local currency. The release of the Fed minutes kicked off the weakness which was compounded by an IMF report and comments from RBA governor Stevens. The AUDEUR pair saw sharp losses down through support at 0.6870 (resistance at 1.4556) trading to a low of 0.6737 (high of 1.4843) yesterday. We have seen a small corrective bounce, but the AUD downside remains the risk. The 0.6870 (1.4556) level should now cap any potential near term AUD strength and we can expect further tests of recent lows over the coming week. The only domestic data of note from Australia this week is private capital expenditure figures on Thursday. While from Europe there is a raft of second tier data set for release.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
AUD/EURO 0.6785 0.6670 0.6870 0.6737 - 0.6980
EURO/AUD 1.4738 1.4556 1.4993 1.4326 - 1.4843

Friday 22nd November 2:30PM (NZT)
After a benign start to the week, the action has really increased for this pair in the last few sessions. The AUD has been materially outperformed by the Euro. The weakness for the AUD was started by the release of the minutes from the last US Federal Reserve monetary policy meeting. The increased odds of near terms QE tapering from the Fed should see the broad AUD vulnerability remain in place in the short term. The IMF comments joined with those from RBA Governor Steven’s to continue the weakness. In Europe, ECB presidents Draghi’s playing down of the chances of negative deposit rates also helped boost the Euro overnight. If the current momentum remains in place, a test of the August extremes around .6660 (1.5000) can not be discounted. From here the lead next week will come from the inflation and employment numbers in Europe on Friday. In Australia just private capital expenditure data on Thursday will garner attention.
The current interbank midrate is:    AUDEUR .6850    EURAUD 1.4599

The interbank range this week has been:    AUDEUR .6840 - .6980    EURAUD 1.4327 - 1.4620
Tuesday 19th November 2:30PM (NZT)
The Australian dollar has shown little in the way of overall direction against the Euro in the past week. Some relative outperformance on Monday was on the back of Chinese reform announcements, but this strength has proven to be short lived. European data of late has been subdued and the same can be said for Australia. In the last hour we have seen the minutes from the last RBA meeting which held no real surprises. The impact has therefore been muted. We get more comments from RBA governor Stevens on Thursday which will draw focus. While from Europe the key data to watch over the coming days includes German economic sentiment, manufacturing and service PMI’s, consumer confidence, and German business climate. The downside is protected by key support around 0.6890 (resistance 1.4514) and while this contains any weakness we can expect more ranging between there and 0.7070 (1.4144) on the topside.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
AUD/EURO 0.6942 0.6870 0.7070 0.6906 - 0.6976
EURO/AUD 1.4405 1.4144 1.4556 1.4335 - 1.4480

Friday 15th November 2:00PM (NZT) - Update
This pair lost considerable ground in the early stages of this week as the Australian dollar remained under pressure in a continuation of the move seen at the end of last week. The AUD eventually found support around the 0.6900 (resistance 1.4493) level and has since then trading has largely remained directionless. The lack of a significant AUD bounce keeps the focus on the downside, however there is a lot of support between 0.6870 and 0.6900 (1.4493 and 1.4556) which will prove tough to break. For much of the last two months trading has been confined to levels between 0.6870 and 0.7100 (1.4085 and 1.4556) and the most likely scenario is for a continuation of this broad range. Next week is another light for data in Australian with only the leading index and minutes from the last RBA monetary policy meeting set for release. While from Europe we get manufacturing data from France and Germany, along with readings on German economic sentiment and business climate.
The current interbank midrate is:    AUDEUR 0.6935    EURAUD 1.4420

The interbank range this week has been:    AUDEUR 0.6906 - 0.7026   EURAUD 1.4233 - 1.4480
Tuesday 12th November 2:30PM (NZT)
This pair spiked up to highs of 0.7115 (lows of 1.4055) in the immediate aftermath of the ECB decision to cut rates late last week. But soon after that release we had strong US GDP figures and the AUD substantially underperformed the EUR as a wave of USD buying swept the market. A similar thing happened on Friday evening after more strong US data was released. The US payrolls number caused further buying of USD’s across the board and the AUD again underperformed the EUR. This has resulted in the cross trading below the level it was before the ECB cut rates. Key downside support comes in around 0.6900, but it would take a fair bit more AUD weakness to test that. This week we get GDP readings from France, Germany, and Italy, along with Euro-zone industrial production and a second reading of inflation.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
AUD/EURO 0.6970 0.6870 0.7070 0.7005 - 0.7115
EURO/AUD 1.4347 1.4144 1.4556 1.4055 - 1.4276

Friday 8th November 2:00PM (NZT) - Update
The Australian dollar made some minor gains against the Euro in the first half of the week but yesterday’s very poor employment numbers saw the AUD come under pressure. As a result this pair traded to it’s weeks lows at 0.7005 (highs at 1.4276). However the Euro has struggled this week as well on the back of average data and last night the ECB surprised many by cutting 0.25%. This caused the cross to spike higher touching 0.7115 (1.4055), but those highs were short lived. After the release of US GDP data that surprised on the strong side, the AUD underperformed against many other currencies. This was partially due to the US stock market losing over 1% and causing a risk negative sentiment to sweep through the market. As the AUD is considered a ‘risk asset’ it got caught up in the negativity and lost a lot of ground. The net result is that the AUDEUR is now back at the same level it was before the ECB cut rates. It seems likely the Euro will remain under pressure in the near term and this should keep the focus on the topside for the pair.  Next week is relatively light on economic news from Australia with Tuesday’s NAB business confidence data offering the primary focus. From Europe we have industrial production, GDP, and the ECB monthly bulletin to digest.
The current interbank midrate is:    AUDEUR 0.7037    EURAUD 1.4211

The interbank range this week has been:    AUDEUR 0.7005 - 0.7115   EURAUD 1.4055 - 1.4276
Tuesday 5th November 1:30PM (NZT)
The past week has seen this pair put in a strong recovery from lows around 0.6880 (highs around 1.4535). The majority of these gains have come on the back of weakness in the Euro. Recent data from Europe has been less than inspiring and a substantial fall in inflation has raised expectations of action from the European Central Bank (ECB) at this week’s meeting. The currency has moved to reflect this. It will be a close call whether or not the bank cuts rates and the market is divided in its expectations. If we do get a cut from the ECB this pair could well see a move up toward 0.7200 (down toward 1.3889). The downside is now supported by 0.6880 (resistance 1.4535) and this level should contain any weakness. We also have the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) monetary policy announcement later this afternoon which could provide some volatility. Although it’s becoming more and more likely we have seen the end of rate cuts from the bank, they will still try to talk the currency down by mentioning it’s ‘overvalued’ or ‘not supported by fundamentals’. Later in the week we get Australian employment data to throw in the mix.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
AUD/EURO 0.7038 0.6870 0.7070 0.6882 - 0.7043
EURO/AUD 1.4209 1.4144 1.4556 1.4198 - 1.4531

Friday 1st November 3:00PM (NZT) - Update
In the early stages of the week as the Australian dollar lost ground thanks to comments from RBA Governor Stevens. His comment that “the level of the currency was not supported by fundamentals” saw this pair eventually trade down to its lows of 0.6882 (highs 1.4531). From there however, a couple of factors have helped to turn the AUD performance around. Yesterday we got very strong building consent numbers from Australia that saw the AUD gain some ground. Then last night recent soft European data finally caught up with the EUR and it came under a lot of pressure. The trigger was poor employment and inflation data, but there have been a number of other negative factors recently which have helped to swing sentiment. This has seen the AUDEUR cross make good gains in the last 24 hours (EUR losing decent ground).  The key event next week is the ECB rate decision, with many now calling for more monetary stimulus from the central bank. The prospect of that should keep the EUR on the back foot. Ahead of the ECB meeting we get readings on the manufacturing and service sectors, retails sales, and German industrial production. But from Australia we also have some key data on the horizon. Retail sales, the RBA rate statement, trade balance, and employment numbers are all set for release, so this pair could be in for a wild ride over the coming week.
The current interbank midrate is:    AUDEUR 0.6986    EURAUD 1.4314

The interbank range this week has been:    AUDEUR 0.6882 - 0.6973   EURAUD 1.4341 - 1.4531
Tuesday 29th October 3:00PM (NZT)
To the surprise of many, the EURO has remained well supported recently even as data has failed to impress. This strength in the European currency has combined over the past week with a softer Australian dollar to see the cross rate lose substantial ground. It ended last week around 0.6940 (1.4409), but has broken through those AUD lows in the last few hours as the AUD came under renewed pressure on the back of comments by RBA Governor Stevens. This keeps the focus on the down side and a test of the next support level at 0.6870 (resistance 1.4555). Later this week from Australia we have building approvals, new home sales, and producer prices data to digest. While from Europe there is a raft of second tier releases from Germany.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
AUD/EURO 0.6924 0.6870 0.7070 0.6909 - 0.7077
EURO/AUD 1.4443 1.4144 1.4556 1.4130 - 1.4474

Friday 25th October 1:30PM (NZT) - Update
We have seen some choppy price action in this pair over the last few days. The week started off quietly enough with the cross trading around 0.7060 (1.4164), but when Australian inflation data hit the wires it gave the Australian dollar a boost and this pair traded up to the weeks high at 0.7077 (lows 1.4130). Those highs didn’t last long however as a wave of selling hammered Australasian currencies after concerns about the Chinese banking system saw risk assets dumped. The cross quickly traded down to 0.6974 (up to 1.4339), before regaining some composure. But the AUD downside has continued and the pair has so far traded to a low of 0.6938 (high 1.4413). We could easily see further weakness and a test of key support around 0.6900 (resistance 1.4493). However, recent data out of Europe has left a lot to be desired and it seems surprising the Euro has remained so well supported in light of this. If the data continues to disappoint next week, I would expect the Euro to come under some pressure and this would limit the downside in the AUDEUR (upside EURAUD). To that extend, from Europe next week we have German retail sales, inflation, and employment. From Australia we get new home sales, building approvals, private sector credit, and producer prices.
The current interbank midrate is:    AUDEUR 0.6960    EURAUD 1.4368

The interbank range this week has been:    AUDEUR 0.6938 - 0.7077    EURAUD 1.4130 - 1.4413
Tuesday 22nd October 2:20PM (NZT)
The Australian dollar has remained on a very solid footing against the Euro since the release of the RBA minutes last week. Although gains have been limited to 0.7078 (1.4128), AUD pullbacks in price action have only been minor and the pair currently sits not far below those AUD highs at 0.7060 (1.4164). This leaves all the risks still skewed to the AUD topside for the time being. Only a break below 0.7025 (above 1.4235) would change that view and warn of a deeper correction. We have Australian inflation data on Wednesday to draw focus locally. While from Europe we get readings on the manufacturing and service sectors from both France and Germany, along with German business climate and Eurozone consumer confidence.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
AUD/EURO 0.7060 0.6870 0.7070 0.6970 - 0.7078
EURO/AUD 1.4164 1.4144 1.4556 1.4128 - 1.4347

Friday 18th October 2:00PM (NZT) - Update
The Australian dollar made good gains against the Euro in the early part of the week helped by the RBA minutes that confirmed the central bank is on hold for the time being. The cross traded to a high of 0.7069 (1.4146) before running into resistance. That level has continued to cap the topside, with the pair keeping a tight range between there and 0.7020 (1.4245) on the downside for the last few days. The pair currently trades bang in the middle of that range and it will take a break of either of those two levels to signal the next move. The upside bias the cross has had over the past couple of weeks would favour a break out of the top of that range, but there isn’t a lot of momentum and it’s a very tough call either way at this stage. Next week from Australia we have inflation data and the RBA annual report to draw focus. While from Europe we get consumer confidence, manufacturing and service sector surveys, and the German business climate index.
The current interbank midrate is:    AUDEUR 0.7036    EURAUD 1.4213

The interbank range this week has been:    AUDEUR 0.6949 - 0.7069   EURAUD 1.4146 - 1.4391
Tuesday 15th October 2:20PM (NZT)
After spending the better part of last week ranging sideways below 0.7000 (above 1.4286), this pair has managed to break through that level in the last 12 hours. The driver for this seems primarily to be strength in the Australian dollar. With a deal in the political standoff in the US looking likely, we have seen an increase in risk appetite return to the market and this has supported the AUD. Any further upside action on the AUD will run into resistance at 0.7050 (support at 1.4184). The down side is supported by the bottom of the recent range at 0.6940 (range top at 1.4409). Later this week from Australia we get business confidence data and a speech from RBA Governor Stevens to focus on. While from Europe we have German economic sentiment numbers, Eurozone inflation and current account data.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
AUD/EURO 0.7025 0.6850 0.7050 0.6938 - 0.7025
EURO/AUD 1.4235 1.4185 1.4600 1.4235 - 1.4413

Friday 11th October 12:00PM (NZT) - Update
The Australian dollar has shown grinding appreciation against the Euro this week and has managed to sustain a move above resistance at 0.6970 (support 1.4347). This has put further AUD appreciation firmly in focus. A test of the next resistance level at 0.7040 (support 1.4205) looks to be on the cards. We have had a mixed bag of data from both countries this week. Yesterday’s softer than expected employment data from Australia seems to have had only a limited impact. The .6970 (1.4347) level is now a key level on the AUD downside and as long as the market holds above there, all the risks are skewed to further AUD appreciation. Next week we have Eurozone industrial production, inflation, and current account data, along with German economic sentiment. From Australia we get the minutes from the latest RBA meeting along with data on home loans and motor vehicle sales.
The current interbank midrate is:    AUDEUR 0.6990    EURAUD 1.4306

The interbank range this week has been:   AUDEUR 0.6912 - 0.7003   EURAUD 1.4280 - 1.4468
Tuesday 8th October 2:15PM (NZT)
Trading in this pair has been range bound for much of the past two weeks. 0.6870 to 0.6970 (1.4350 - 1.4556) has contained most of the price action. Late last week we saw the top of this range under pressure as the Australian dollar outperformed the Euro to a degree, but in the early stages of this week the AUD has retraced some of those gains. Expect more of the same range bound activity ahead of key Australian employment data on Thursday. From Europe ECB president Draghi is set to speak on Thursday and Friday and his comments will be closely watched. Ahead of that we get German trade balance, factory orders, and industrial production. We also have French industrial production on Thursday along with the ECB monthly bulletin.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
AUD/EURO 0.6952 0.6850 0.7050 0.6875 - 0.6972
EURO/AUD 1.4384 1.4185 1.4600 1.4343 - 1.4545

Friday 4th October 2:00PM (NZT) - Update
The Australian dollar has ended the week against the Euro pretty much in line with where is started. A bout of strength after the RBA’s statement was quickly undone as building permits and trade balance data weighed on the AUD and the EUR gained support after the Italian PM confidence vote. This leaves near term direction lacking and we could well drift into the weekend contained within the recent range. Next week from Australia we have consumer sentiment, business confidence and employment data to digest. While from Europe we have GDP, industrial production for both France and Germany, along with German trade balance and factory orders.
The current interbank midrate is:    AUDEUR 0.6915    EURAUD 1.4461

The interbank range this week has been:    AUDEUR 0.6875 - 0.6963    EURAUD 1.4362 - 1.4545
Tuesday 1st October 2:15PM (NZT)
The EURO has made grinding appreciation against the Australian dollar throughout the course of the last week. Ironically, this pressure from the EURO has continued as the political instability in Italy has increased. The RBA monetary policy decision in a few hours will provide the near term focus ahead of the pending confidence vote in Italy. The ECB monetary policy announcement and accompanying statement will offer further focus. Expect further efforts to talk the EURO lower from the central bankers throughout the week. However, with the wider market risk aversion in place as the US government approaches shutdown, and recovery from the AUD should be limited in the near term at least. The .6850 (1.4600) level remains the near term target for further EUR outperformance of the Australian dollar.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
AUD/EURO 0.6890 0.6850 0.7050 0.6868 - 0.7005
EURO/AUD 1.4514 1.4185 1.4600 1.4194 - 1.4560

Friday 27th September 2:00PM (NZT) - Update
After a strong start to the week, thanks in large part to better Chinese manufacturing data, the Australian dollar spent the rest of the week giving back those gains. Key support around 0.6910 (resistance 1.4472) has contained the downside for now, and while above there we are likely to see more sideways action. A move below that level would signal the start of the next down leg which could see cycle lows of 0.6653 (up leg to highs of 1.5031) tested. Any AUD topside action will likely be capped by resistance around 0.7035 (support around 1.4215) in the near term. Next week we have the RBA rate decision and statement to digest, while from Europe we have retail sales, unemployment, and the ECB rate decision to focus on.
The current interbank midrate is:    AUDEUR 0.6942    EURAUD 1.4405

The interbank range this week has been:    AUDEUR 0.6915 - 0.7005   EURAUD 1.4194 - 1.4461
Tuesday 24th September 2:00PM (NZT)
This pair has continued to trade sideways within the broad 0.6940 - 0.7040 (1.4205 - 1.4409) range that has contained it for much of the past 2 weeks. We did get a brief dip through the bottom of that range to a low of 0.6915 (high of 1.4461) in thin early Monday morning trade, but it was short lived and the pair recovered all the way back up to 0.7000 (down to 1.4286). That recovery was helped by some better Chinese manufacturing numbers out yesterday. In the last few hours we have seen some Australian dollar weakness and the pair could now test back to support around 0.6920 (resistance 1.4451). There is little in the way of domestic data from Australia this week with only the RBA financial stability review out tomorrow. From Europe this week we get German business and consumer climate, German inflation, and French consumer spending.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
AUD/EURO 0.6973 0.6910 0.7130 0.6915 - 0.7045
EURO/AUD 1.4341 1.4025 1.4472 1.4194 - 1.4461

Friday 20th September 2:00PM (NZT) - Update
The broad range of 0.6940 to 0.7040 (1.4205 to 1.4409) has contained this pair for much of the past two weeks now, although price action has been choppy with those parameters. With a total lack of any real direction the most likely scenario in the near term is for more of the same ranging price action. We will have to wait for a break out to get an indication of where the pair might be headed. From Europe we get consumer confidence numbers early tomorrow morning and next week there is plenty more data to digest. The highlights of which will be readings on the manufacturing and service sectors, German business climate and retails sales, and a speech by ECB president Draghi on Friday. While from Australia there is a very light economic calendar with only the RBA annual report and financial stability review scheduled for release.
The current interbank midrate is:    AUDEUR 0.6982    EURAUD 1.4323

The interbank range this week has been:    AUDEUR 0.6944 - 0.7032    EURAUD 1.4221 - 1.4401
Tuesday 17th September 2:00PM (NZT)
The Australian dollar has been largely range bound between 0.6940 and 0.7040 (1.4205 and 1.4409) for the past week or so. The lows of the week traded in the wake of the poor Australian employment data, while yesterday morning’s spike on the back of the Larry Summers announcement saw the highs at 0.7032 (1.4221) trade.  Since then we have seen the pair drift back in the middle of the range around 0.6970 (1.4347). With little direction in the pair over the last week, it’s hard to expect anything more ahead of the Fed’s tapering announcement on Thursday. We get data on German economic sentiment tonight and on Friday we get Eurozone consumer confidence.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
AUD/EURO 0.6979 0.6930 0.7130 0.6944 - 0.7032
EURO/AUD 1.4329 1.4025 1.4430 1.4221 - 1.4401

Friday 13th September 2:00PM (NZT) - Update
For most of the week the Australian dollar maintained a firm footing against the Euro as European data was less than impressive. The 0.7020 (1.4245) level was capping the topside heading into the Australian employment report which surprised the market with a very weak result. As the AUD came under all sorts of pressure the cross to the EUR fell to a low of 0.6944 (high of 1.4401) before staging a small recovery. Currently trading around 0.6970 (1.4347) the risks are skewed to the Australian dollar downside. That being said, key support at 0.6915 (resistance at 1.4461) hasn’t even been tested yet, and it will take a move below there to confirm a negative outlook. We may well see some ranging price action between 0.6915 (1.4461) and 0.7020 (1.4245) as the market heads into next week and the all important announcement on US Fed tapering. Also next week we get the minutes from the last RBA meeting, while from Europe we have inflation, German economic sentiment, trade balance, and consumer confidence to focus on.
The current interbank midrate is:    AUDEUR 0.6973    EURAUD 1.4341

The interbank range this week has been:    AUDEUR 0.6944 - 0.7020   EURAUD 1.4245 - 1.4401
Tuesday 10th September 2:00PM (NZT)
The Australian dollar made good gains against the Euro last week as geo-political concerns eased and the RBA took a more neutral stance. Although the Euro-zone is improving, the gains are incredibly gradual and this was reflected in the cautious tone from ECB president Draghi on Thursday. The pairing broke above resistance at 0.6910 (support at 1.4472) mid last week, and although gains have slowed the focus is still on the topside. The .6910 (1.4472) level now provides the first level of AUD support and the market hasn’t even looked like testing it so far this week. Over the coming days from Australia we get business confidence, consumer sentiment, and employment figures. While from Europe there we have industrial production and the ECB monthly bulletin to focus on.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
AUD/EURO 0.6976 0.6910 0.7110 0.6795 - 0.7011
EURO/AUD 1.4335 1.4065 1.4472 1.4263 - 1.4717
 
Friday 6th September 2:00PM (NZT) - Update
It has been a positive week for this pair with a relentless march higher from the open on Monday morning. The initial move was on the back of a stronger Australian dollar as wider market risk aversion waned and better data from China supported. Then on Tuesday the RBA left rates unchanged and moved towards a neutral stance which further bolstered the currency. The latest leg higher has come on the back of EUR weakness. Since the ECB’s rate decision last night the EUR has come under pressure. President Draghi’s cautious tone and a scaling back of growth prospects for next year have underlined the fragile outlook for the region. This is keeping the Euro on the back foot. The pair has broken above key resistance around 0.6910 (support 1.4472) and could now target gains towards 0.7050 (1.4184). As long as 0.6910 now contains the downside the focus remains on further gains. Next week out of Europe we have industrial production, and the ECB monthly bulletin to focus on while from Australia we have business confidence, consumer sentiment, and employment data.
The current interbank midrate is:    AUDEUR 0.6957    EURAUD 1.4371

The interbank range this week has been:    AUDEUR 0.6755 - 0.6969    EURAUD 1.4349 - 1.4804
Tuesday 3rd September 4:00PM (NZT)
After making fresh AUD cycle lows in the middle of last week at 0.6653 (1.5031), the AUD has put in a decent recovery. The initial move higher came on the back of Euro weakness seen in the wake of soft German inflation and unemployment data. The latest leg higher has come from a stronger AUD in the early stages of this week. The recovery in the AUD is on the back of reduced risk aversion as a military strike on Syria looks to have been pushed out to next week at the earliest, and some better Chinese manufacturing data. Overnight we have seen improved manufacturing data out of Spain and Italy which should help limit further gains for the AUD over the EURO. Resistance around 0.6840 (support 1.4620) should cap the AUD ahead of the RBA rate decision later today. From the Euro-zone this week we get data on the service sector and retail sales, before the ECB rate decision on Thursday night.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
AUD/EURO 0.6816 0.6670 0.6870 0.6653 - 0.6827
EURO/AUD 1.4671 1.4556 1.4993 1.4648 - 1.5031

Friday 30th August 2.00PM (NZT) - Update
The Australian dollar made fresh cycle lows to the Euro this week at 0.6653 (highs 1.5031). This came as the AUD was under pressure due to broad risk aversion in the market combined with some poor Australian data on construction output and new home sales. The last 48 hours though have seen a substantial recovery off those lows. The pair currently trades near 0.6740 (1.4837). The recent recovery has been aided by soft German inflation data and a surprise rise in German unemployment. The pair could continue on the upside to 0.6775 (1.4760). That level marks the first line of resistance and should cap strength in the near term. Next week will be key for the Euro with the European Central Bank rate decision on Thursday. Ahead of that we get readings on the manufacturing and service sectors, retail sales, and German factory orders. From Australia we have building approvals, retails sales, GDP, and the RBA policy meeting all set for release.
The current interbank midrate is:    AUDEUR 0.6750    EURAUD 1.4815

The interbank range this week has been:    AUDEUR 0.6653 - 0.6772   EURAUD 1.4767 - 1.5031
Tuesday 27th August 4:00PM (NZT)
After touching a low of 0.6698 (high of 1.4930)  in the early part of last week this pairing has been somewhat subdued trading sideways between 0.6720 - 0.6775 (1.4760 - 1.4881). With the Australian dollar finding some support from better Chinese data, and the Euro benefiting from improved economic figures the net result was some sideways trade. The pair has however in the last few hours succumbed to some fresh weakness and is now sitting just above 0.6700 (1.4925). This latest weakness has come as rumours of a US strike on Syria caused some risk aversion and selling of the AUD. Any potential strike would be limited and we can likely expect some sort of recovery in the pair. But until resistance at 0.6775 (1.4760) is overcome, the risks are still to the downside. There is plenty of data out of Europe this week, the highlights of which are German business climate tonight, and Euro-zone inflation and unemployment on Friday.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
AUD/EURO 0.6720 0.6670 0.6870 0.6698 - 0.6846
EURO/AUD 1.4881 1.4556 1.4993 1.4607 - 1.4930

Friday 23rd August 2.00PM (NZT) - Update
A resurgent USD has had the Australian dollar on the back foot for most of the week and this saw most of the AUD crosses under pressure. Against the Euro was no exception. Early strength was quickly reversed and the pair traded down to 0.6698 (up to 1.1930) yesterday before improved Chinese manufacturing data came to the aid of the AUD. The Euro has also found some support this week from improved readings on the manufacturing and service sectors which lend support to the outlook for a gradual recovery over the second half of this year. Recent cycle lows near 0.6670 (highs 1.4993)  have yet to be tested on this renewed weakness, however as long as the pair is capped by 0.6780 (1.4749) that is the risk.
The current interbank midrate is:    AUDEUR 0.6770    EURAUD 1.4771

The interbank range this week has been:    AUDEUR 0.6698 - 0.6921    EURAUD 1.4449 - 1.4930
Tuesday 20th August 3:00PM (NZT)
The AUD against the EUR spent much of the past week trading sideways between 0.6840 and 0.6920 (1.4450-1.4620). The top of that AUD range has capped the pair on three separate occasions over that time, and the failure to break above there has now taken its toll. The AUD fell sharply from there last night and has now broken the lower end of its range. This keeps the downside firmly in focus and we can look for a move toward 0.6870(1.4560) ahead of cycle lows at 0.6669 (highs 1.5000). With little out of Australia for the rest of the week the focus will turn to readings on the Euro-zone manufacturing and service sectors.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
AUD/EURO 0.6813 0.6700 0.6900 0.6810 - 0.6921
EURO/AUD 1.4678 1.4493 1.4925 1.4449 - 1.4684

Friday 16th August 2.00PM (NZT) - Update
Given the wider market’s volatility, this pair has seen relatively benign price action this week. The crucial .6920 (1.4450) level has contained the AUD appreciation on three occasions this week, and this level should contain any AUD appreciation in the short term. In what has been mostly sideways trade the pressure on the AUD has come from the EURO in the last couple of sessions. In the absence of any material data, the influence has come from the AUDs relative underperformance against the US dollar. European current account and inflation numbers later on today offer a level of focus to round the week . Next week’s initial focus comes in the form of the RBA monetary policy meeting minutes on Tuesday, and comes ahead of European manufacturing and service data later in the week. Assuming the .6920 (1.4450) level holds in the short term, further investigations lower for the AUD should be forthcoming next week.
The current interbank midrate is:    AUDEUR 0.6851    EURAUD 1.4596

The interbank range this week has been:    AUDEUR 0.6836 - 0.6920   EURAUD 1.4451 - 1.4628
Tuesday 13th August 3:00PM (NZT)
The Australian dollar recovered from cycle lows last week against the Euro. That recovery was helped by better economic data out of China and the pair managed to test key downtrend resistance at 0.6910 (support 1.4472) on Friday evening. That resistance level held firm and the pair has since drifted lower to trade near 0.6850 (1.4599). Further downside toward 0.6800 (upside towards 1.4706) is the favoured scenario in the very near term, although a AUD bounce from there could once again put key downtrend resistance under threat. There is plenty of European data out this week, the highlight of which will be German economic sentiment released tonight. From Australia we have consumer sentiment tomorrow then later in the week we get wage price index and inflation expectations.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
AUD/EURO 0.6860 0.6700 0.6900 0.6712 - 0.6914
EURO/AUD 1.4577 1.4493 1.4925 1.4463 - 1.4899

Friday 9th August 2.00PM (NZT) - Update
This week has seen a mild recovery for the AUD against the EUR from cycle lows set on Monday. The recovery has been choppy thanks to price action after the RBA announcement, Australian employment figures, and subsequent Chinese trade data. There is still plenty of room on the topside for further AUD appreciation without threatening the broader downtrend that has been in play for the last four months. Key resistance comes in around 0.6910 (support 1.4472), and will prove tough to get through should the market even make it to that level. Until that level is overcome the downside is still the risk for the AUD against the EURO.
The current interbank midrate is:    AUDEUR 0.6809    EURAUD 1.4686

The interbank range this week has been:    AUDEUR 0.6671 - 0.6819   EURAUD 1.4405 - 1.4990
Tuesday 6th August 1:45PM (NZT)
There has been very little respite for this pair since it broke down through 0.6900 (up through 1.4493) early last week in the wake of RBA Governor Stevens’ speech. That speech has cemented market views for a 25 point rate cut by the RBA at this afternoon's meeting. Weakness in the pair has been exasperated by a very resilient EUR which seems to have performed quite well across the board on the back of only mildly better data. We’ve seen a small bounce from the recent AUD lows but it’s nowhere near enough strength to threaten the broader downtrend which remains firmly in place. Over the rest of the week there is a raft of second tier Euro-zone data out and on Thursday we get Australian employment figures.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
AUD/EURO 0.6723 0.6650 0.6850 0.6671 - 0.6942
EURO/AUD 1.4874 1.4599 1.5038 1.4405 - 1.4990

Friday 2nd August 2.00PM (NZT) - Update
Like many Australian dollar crosses the AUDEUR has been a poor performer this week. Having consolidated above 0.6900 (below 1.4493) over the last four weeks, the broader AUD downtrend of the past three months has reasserted itself, and this week the pair broke to fresh lows. The trigger for the move lower came from RBA governor Stevens when he spoke on Tuesday. The tone of that speech was very soft and has cemented views that another rate cut from the RBA at next week’s meeting is very likely. The negative sentiment was backed up by some very poor manufacturing data out of Australia yesterday which has kept the pressure on the currency. Overnight we had the ECB rate announcement and as expected there was no change. Although president Draghi has pledged to keep rates low for the foreseeable further, there are early signs of a gradual recovery starting to build. This is helping to support demand for EUR, and keeps downside pressure on the AUD. Along with the RBA's rate decision next week, from Australia we get data on retail sales, the trade balance, and employment. Key European data includes retails sales, German and French industrial production, and the ECB monthly bulletin.
The current interbank midrate is:    AUDEUR 0.6739    EURAUD 1.4411

The interbank range this week has been:    AUDEUR 0.6713 - 0.6981   EURAUD 1.4318 - 1.4896
Tuesday 30th July 4:45PM (NZT)
For the most part this pair has spent the last week with grinding pressure on the AUD from the EURO. The better than expected manufacturing numbers in Europe has helped, but for the most part it has been a case of underperformance. Today’s comments from RBA Governor Stevens has pushed the pair through the AUD support at .6920 (1.4450). Given that the AUD is again at multi year lows to the EUR, the vulnerability remains firmly in place. From here the eyes will be firmly on the FED’s monetary policy announcement Wednesday, ahead of the ECB’s own announcement on Thursday. Expect further volatility for the remainder of the week, with a the bias remaining skewed towards AUD underperformance.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
AUD/EURO 0.6855 0.6750 0.6950 0.6855 - 0.7047
EURO/AUD 1.4588 1.4400 1.4820 1.4190 - 1.4584

Friday 26th July 2.00PM (NZT) - Update
After drifting sideways in directionless trade in the first half of the week, the Australian dollar has weakened significantly against the Euro in the last few days. This has been on the back of very poor manufacturing data out of China that has weighed on the AUD. We also saw some better than expected result out of Europe for both the manufacturing and services sectors there. The pair traded to a low of 0.6918 (high of 1.4455) before staging a small recovery back up to 0.6970 (down to 1.4347). There is resistance around 0.6980 (support 1.4327), and then again at 0.7050 (1.4184). As long as this level caps the topside for the AUD, the risk remains for further losses. Next week’s key event is the European Central Bank rate announcement and subsequent press conference. Out of Australia we also have building approvals, new home sales and producer prices data.
The current interbank midrate is:    AUDEUR 0.6980    EURAUD 1.4327

The interbank range this week has been:    AUDEUR 0.6918 - 0.7047    EURAUD 1.4190 - 1.4455
Tuesday 23rd July 3:00PM (NZT)
There has been very little direction in this pair over the last week. Trading has mostly been contained in a tight range between 0.6970 (1.4347) and 0.7050 (1.4184). The rest of this week could provide the dive needed for the pair to break out of this range. We have Australian inflation numbers to digest tomorrow, and a raft of European data starting with consumer confidence tonight. That is followed by readings on the manufacturing and service sectors on Wednesday night, and a survey on German business climate Thursday evening. The longer term trend in this pair is for a weaker AUD, however the last month has seen mostly sideway trading as the pair consolidates the AUD losses of the last few months. Support is seen around the cycle lows at 0.6915 (resistance 1.4461) with key topside downtrend resistance now at 0.7100 (support 1.4085). Expect those levels to contain the action this week.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
AUD/EURO 0.7030 0.6900 0.7100 0.6958 - 0.7057
EURO/AUD 1.4225 1.4085 1.4493 1.4170 - 1.4372

Friday 19th July 12.00PM (NZT) - Update
There has been little in the way of European news or data to drive this pair this week. Most of the action has come from the Australian side and to that extent the RBA minutes provided support for the AUD and this cross. It has traded as high as 0.7057 (1.4170) but after sellers re-emerged in the AUD yesterday the pair traded back down below 0.7000 (1.4286). There is minor support at 0.6980 (1.4327) and as long as it’s trading above that level there is potential for further gains. The picture for the AUD is far from strong however, and recent cycle lows are not far away at 0.6914 ( highs 1.4463). Next week we have Australian inflation data to look out for, and from Europe we get readings on the manufacturing and service sectors along with consumer confidence.
The current interbank midrate is:    AUDEUR 0.6995    EURAUD 1.4296

The interbank range this week has been:    AUDEUR 0.6934 - 0.7057    EURAUD 1.4170 - 1.4422
Tuesday 16th July 3:30PM (NZT)
The EUR has remained surprisingly strong in the face of less than positive news. This combined with negative news and data out of China that weighed on the AUD and caused the cross make fresh lows late last week. There has been some respite for the AUD this week as Chinese GDP came in around expectation yesterday and today’s RBA minutes were a bit more supportive than expected. They certainly don’t sound like they are on the cusp of another cut next month as some had been predicting.  This has seen some AUD strength the cross to the EUR now trades back above 0.7000 (1.4286). I continue to expect any dips below 0.6950 (1.4388) to find buyers with potential for a move back up over 0.7100 (1.4085) if we get some EUR weakness. Data out tonight in the form of German economic sentiment, Euro-zone inflation, and trade data will be closely watched. Later in the week we also get Australian business confidence.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
AUD/EURO 0.7008 0.6900 0.7100 0.6907 - 0.7213
EURO/AUD 1.4269 1.4085 1.4493 1.3864 - 1.4478

Friday 12th July 2:45PM (NZT) - Update
It has been a week of choppy price action for this pair. The wider market influence could be felt as the US Federal Reserve Minutes caused confusion and increasing fears about the Chinese economy again surfaced. Added to this lacklustre economic news in both economies, and contradictory comments from ECB representatives and it is easy to see why the trading range was almost twice covered. The AUD should find some increase in demand at the .7000(1.4285) level. If that level holds expect further trading with in the .7000-.7200 (1.3890- 1.4285) range. Next week sees little news for the Australian economy after the RBA monetary policy meeting minutes on Tuesday. In Europe the latest German sentiment and European inflation numbers come on Tuesday, and the various member auctions will be closely followed throughout the week.
The current interbank midrate is:    AUDEUR 0.7002    EURAUD 1.4282

The interbank range this week has been:    AUDEUR 0.6976 - 0.7213    EURAUD 1.3864 - 1.4335
Tuesday 9th July 4:00PM (NZT)
The US employment report at the end of last week added a little volatility to this pair, but this has done little to change the overall picture. In the wake of the data the pair traded up to 0.7129 (down to 1.4028) before the AUD retreated sharply. ECB president Draghi’s calls to keep rates low for a long is required last week should continue to cap EUR strength in the near term. He is due to speak again this week, and he will no doubt be singing the same tune. Support for the pair comes in around 0.7000 (resistance 1.4286), which I expect to contain the AUD downside heading into Australian employment data on Thursday. If resistance around 0.7130 (support 1.4025) can be overcome, the picture will look considerably brighter for the AUD against the EURO heading forward.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
AUD/EURO 0.7097 0.7000 0.7200 0.6947 - 0.7129
EURO/AUD 1.4090 1.3889 1.4286 1.4028 - 1.4395

Friday 5th July 2:45PM (NZT) - Update
The first half of this week saw the Australian dollar coming under pressure in the wake of the RBA announcement and subsequent comments from officials. As a result the AUDEUR cross traded down to test recent lows around 0.6950 (highs 1.4388 EURAUD). This dip was short lived, however as the AUD started to recover some ground, and the EUR found itself in the firing line after the ECB rate decision. The strong language and forward guidance from the ECB has put the EUR on the back foot, and this looks likely to continue in the near term. Tonight’s US employment data is the big unknown. That aside, the AUD is starting to look like the downtrend of the last 3 months has run its course against the EUR for the time being at least. A sustained move above 0.7130 (below 1.4025) would be the first signal that a broader corrective AUD rally could be on the cards. The risks would then be skewed to the AUD topside and further gains expected. Next week we get Australian consumer sentiment and employment data, while out of Europe we have the Eurogroup meetings, industrial production figures, and the ECB monthly bulletin.
The current interbank midrate is:    AUDEUR 0.7076    EURAUD 1.4132

The interbank range this week has been: AUDEUR 0.6947 - 0.7110 EURAUD 1.4065 - 1.4395
Tuesday 2nd July 3:00PM (NZT)
Last week was a tail of two halves for the AUD against the EUR. The first half of the week saw the AUD recovering well off its recent lows, but it ran out of steam in the middle of the week with the pair peaking around 0.7170 (slump 1.3947). From there it slid south into the weekend as the Australian dollar continued to come under pressure. The early part of this week has seen a very small recovery from the AUD as the market awaits both the RBA and ECB rate decisions. These two events will dictate near term direction. Looking at the broader picture, it seems momentum is starting to wane on the downtrend of the past two months for the Australian dollar. This would suggest a period of consolidation is likely with the chance of a small corrective increase in demand. For the time being, 0.7000 -0.7200 (1.4285 - 1.3889) looks likely to contain the pair. A move below 0.7000 (above 1.4285) would be a weak signal and warn of further AUD losses to come. If the pair can trade up through 0.7200 (1.3889), this would dramatically increase the chance of a broader corrective increase in AUD demand that would then target 0.7600 (1.3158). Other data to watch for this week includes Australian retail sales and trade balance on Wednesday, and building approvals on Thursday. Europe has service sector readings and retail sales on Wednesday night.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
AUD/EURO 0.7058 0.7000 0.7200 0.7004 - 0.7175
EURO/AUD 1.4168 1.3889 1.4285 1.3938 - 1.4277

Friday 28th June 3:15PM (NZT) - Update
The lows of the week for the AUDEUR traded on Monday and since then the pair has seen a slow but consistent grind higher. The cross traded all the way up to 0.7175 (1.3938) before finally running out of steam. The last 12 hours have seen if give back some of those gains and the pair currently trades around 0.7080 (1.4124). Concerns in Europe over rising bond yields have certainly helped to undermine the Euro this week and should continue to do so in the near term. Next week’s RBA rate decision and retail sales data will be closely watched, but we also have the ECB policy meeting to focus on. So there will be plenty of potential for action on in the Australian dollar versus the Euro cross rate.
The current interbank midrate is:   AUDEUR 0.7082    EURAUD 1.4120

The interbank range this week has been:   AUDEUR 0.6986 - 0.7175   EURAUD 1.3938 - 1.4315
Tuesday 25th June 3:20PM (NZT)
The Australian dollar traded new cycle lows against the Euro late last week after the Fed announcement. Like most AUD crosses, since then there has been a small recovery. However this bounce has yet to overcome any real resistance levels and this leaves the risks still skewed to the downside. That been said, the pair currently trades around 0.7060 (1.4164) which is just shy of key resistance at 0.7080 (1.4124). A move up through there would be the first sign that a broader correction could be underway. The target would then be on a test of 0.7240 (1.3812). With little out of Australia this week Euro-zone data is likely to drive the pair. German consumer confidence, retail sales and unemployment will be closely watched.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
AUD/EURO 0.7050 0.6940 0.7130 0.6937 - 0.7137
EURO/AUD 1.4184 1.4409 1.4025 1.4012 - 1.4415

Friday 21st June 3:45PM (NZT) - Update
The AUDEUR opened the week on its highs and immediately headed lower as better data out of Europe helped to support the EUR. That downward trend accelerated dramatically after the US Fed announcement and the pair traded down to 0.6937 (1.4415). So far there has been little in the way of a recovery off those lows and the pair continues to look heavy. The risks are for further losses with a move back through 0.7100 (1.4085) needed to change the near term picture. Expect plenty of selling on any potential bounce to that level.
The current interbank midrate is:    AUDEUR 0.6968    EURAUD 1.4351

The interbank range this week has been:   AUDEUR 0.6938 - 0.7230   EURAUD 1.3832 - 1.4415
Tuesday 18th June 3:30PM (NZT)
With the Euro remaining well supported recently this pair has been driven by moves in the Australian dollar. Last week’s recovery in the AUD saw this pair regain some lost ground as it traded up to 0.7239 (EURAUD 1.3714). It had a number of attempts at that level over the last few days and failed to overcome it. Weakness in the AUD last night saw the pair turn back down and some more selling after the release of the RBA minutes has kept the pressure on. The near term risk is still the downside and another test of recent lows could well be on the cards. It will take a sustained move above resistance around 0.7230 (1.3831) to change the outlook. Driving forces over the rest of the week will come from Euro-zone data in the form of economic sentiment, consumer confidence and manufacturing surveys, as well as the US Fed meeting tomorrow night.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
AUD/EURO 0.7125 0.7030 0.7230 0.7027 - 0.7239
EURO/AUD 1.4035 1.4225 1.3831 1.3815 - 1.4231

Friday 14th June 3:15PM (NZT) - Update
Like most of the Australian dollar cross rates, the AUDEUR made fresh lows in the early part of the week as the AUD lost ground across the board. That combined with a strong Euro to see a low of 0.7027 set on Tuesday. Since then we have seen some volatile price action as the AUD tried to regain some composure. That was helped by better than expected employment numbers out of Australia yesterday, that eventually saw some real demand for Australian dollars. It is probably too early to call an end to the downtrend this pair has been in since April, but the chance of that has certainly improved. At worst we should be in for some consolidation around current levels. But there is plenty of room for continued appreciation with the initial target being a move back to resistance at 0.7350.
The current interbank midrate is:    AUDEUR 0.7180    EURAUD 1.3928

The interbank range this week has been:   AUDEUR 0.7027 - 0.7226   EURAUD 1.3838 - 1.4231
Tuesday 11th June 3:20PM (NZT)
Soft data out of China over the weekend hasn’t helped the Australian dollar which has continued to lose ground against the EUR. Good German data on Friday also saw increased demand for EUR and the pair is currently trading on it’s lows. The downtrend seems to have plenty of momentum at the moment and further losses look likely. Data out of Australia this week could try to turn it around, but for the time being I wouldn’t want to be going against the trend. Only a move up through 0.7190 (1.3908) will take the immediate focus off the downside.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
AUD/EURO 0.7109 0.6990 0.7190 0.7109 - 0.7449
EURO/AUD 1.4066 1.4306 1.3908 1.3425 - 1.4066

Friday 7th June 5:15PM (NZT) - Update
The downtrend in AUDEUR that started at the beginning of April shows no sign of abating. In fact the pace of declines stepped up this week as the AUD struggled under the weight of weak global stocks and disappointing GDP figures. Add to that strength in the EUR that got a boost last night from ECB’s Draghi when he said further stimulus measures are on the shelf for now, and you end up with a big weekly move. At some point there will be a corrective bounce. But trying to call that is a low probability outcome. For now the risks all lie to the south and we can expect more big ranges.
The current interbank midrate is:    AUDEUR 0.7165    EURAUD 1.3957

The interbank range this week has been:   AUDEUR 0.7146 - 0.7477   EURAUD 1.3374 - 1.3993
Tuesday 4th June 4:50PM (NZT)
Much like against the GBP, the AUD has been in a strong downtrend against the EUR for much of the last two months. This trend is still the dominant force driving the pair. However, some recent better data out of Australia and China has seen a corrective bounce that is approaching key levels. With the RBA rate decision out this afternoon we can expect some volatility and this will dictate near term direction. If the pair trades up through 0.7480 (below 1.3368), then we will likely see a move to 0.7580 (1.3192) at least. If the pair turns back down then we will most probably see a retest of recent lows around 0.7360 (1.3587).
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
AUD/EURO 0.7443 0.7100 0.7600 0.7357 - 0.7508
EURO/AUD 1.3435 1.3160 1.3510 1.3319 - 1.3592

Friday 31st May 2:25PM (NZT) - Update
The AUD has been in a relentless downtrend against the EUR since the beginning of April. Some relative strength from the EUR in the last two days has seen this trend continue, and a fresh low for the pair has traded at 0.7387 (1.3540). Stronger German inflation has underpinned this latest increase in EURO demand, and there is plenty of Euro-zone data out tonight that could support the EUR further. This will set the tone heading into next week, which is a big one for AUD data. Retail sales, RBA policy meeting, GDP and trade data are provide the AUD market with plenty to digest.
The current interbank midrate is:    AUDEUR 0.7390    EURAUD 1.3531

The interbank range this week has been:    AUDEUR 0.7387 - 0.7508    EURAUD 1.3319 - 1.3537
Tuesday 28th May 4:50PM (NZT)
Like most of the AUD pairings, the AUD is firmly entrenched in a downtrend trend against the EUR. The pair is currently trading near recent lows, and these levels were last seen in November 2011. Trying to call a bottom on a move like this is never a good idea. Only a move up through 0.7520 (below 1.3300) will take the pressure off the downside for the AUD, and could signal a bigger correction is underway. This focus this week will be on Euro-zone data in the form of unemployment, inflation, and consumer confidence.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
AUD/EURO .7460 .7400 .7600 .7438 - .7625
EURO/AUD 1.3405 1.3160 1.3510 1.3115 - 1.3445

Friday  24th May 3:00PM (NZT) - Update
The EUR has been outperforming the AUD for a number of weeks now. Early this week the AUD tried to make some gains above 0.7600 (below1.3160), but it was short lived. The subsequent AUD weakness led the pair lower after disappointing data on the Australian domestic front was backed up by weak Chinese manufacturing figures. The AUD against the EUR is now trading it’s lowest levels since December 2011, and the outlook isn’t much brighter. There are no major support levels in sight and it will take a move back above 0.7620 (below 1.3125) to take the pressure off the AUD downside. With only second tier data out of Australia next week, the focus will be on Euro-zone inflation and consumer confidence.
The current interbank midrate is:    AUDEUR .7485    EURAUD 1.3360

The interbank range this week has been:    AUDEUR .7481 - .7625    EURAUD 1.3115 - 1.3367
Tuesday 21st May 3:50PM (NZT)
Like most other crosses, the bout of AUD selling at the end of last week saw this pair making fresh lows. A mild recovery back above 0.7600 (below 1.3160) has taken the immediate pressure off the downside for the AUD. A failure to hold above that level will leave the AUD looking vulnerable to further pressure from the EUR. Australia only has consumer confidence scheduled for release this week. The focus will turn to Europe, which has releases of manufacturing and service data along with German GDP and business climate survey. Recent Euro-zone data has disappointed and if that continues then the pair could easily recover back above 0.7700 (below 1.3000)
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
AUD/EURO .7607 .7500 .7700 .7566 - .7698
EURO/AUD 1.3145 1.3000 1.3330 1.2990 - 1.3220

Friday  17th May 4:20PM (NZT) - Update
This pair has been trending lower for much of the last month and a half. This week saw support coming in at 0.7620 (resistance 1.3120), which is the level the market rallied from back in February. It held above that support for much of the week, but today’s bout of AUD weakness saw this level taken out and a sharp move down to 0.7587 (up to 1.3180) followed. This is a very weak signal, and only a quick recovery back above that level will save the pair from renewed downside action for the AUD. With no more key downside levels for the next few hundred points, there is little in the way of support on the charts. There is plenty in the way of domestic news out of Australia next week that might turn it around, but if the recent data is anything to go by, the risk are skewed to the downside for the AUD.
The current interbank midrate is:   AUDEUR .7577    EURAUD 1.3197

The interbank range this week has been:   AUDEUR .7574 - .7720  EURAUD 1.2954 - 1.3203
Tuesday 14th May 3:15PM (NZT)
This pair has continued its recent trend with the AUD under pressure, and is currently trading on its recent lows around 0.7665 (highs 1.3046). The focus now is on a test of the yearly lows at 0.7620 (highs 1.3123). Expect reasonable AUD buying to emerge at that level, and there is certainly scope for a corrective bounce within the broader downtrend of the last month. It would take a move above 0.7780(1.2855) to signal that is underway. European data out this week will likely drive the pair, with inflation and GDP numbers scheduled for release for both Germany and the Euro-zone.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
AUD/EURO .7667 .7620 .7780 .7663 - .7787
EURO/AUD 1.3040 1.2850 1.3120 1.2840 - 1.3050

Friday  10th May 3:15PM (NZT) - Update
The AUDEUR was on the back foot from the start this week, and the RBA decision to cut rates increased the selling pressure. There was a bounce from lows around 0.7725 (highs 1.2940) on the back of Australian employment data, but that has proved short lived and the AUD suffered badly on the back of broad USD strength early this morning. The pair is now back down testing 0.7725 (1.2720) and feels heavy. Below here opens the way for a test of yearly lows around 0.7620 (1.3120). With plenty of data out of Australia and Europe next week the outlook is far from clear.
The current interbank midrate is:    AUDEUR 0.7732    EURAUD 1.2933

The interbank range this week has been:    AUDEUR 0.7727 - 0.7864    EURAUD 1.2720 - 1.2940
Tuesday 7th May 5:15PM (NZT)
Not a lot of real direction eventuated for the this pair over the course of the last week. After EURO seeing pressure following the ECB announcement on Thursday, it has recovered somewhat and the pairing has traded mostly sideways since. The AUD looks to remain vulnerable in the coming sessions, and following today’s RBA monetary policy meeting the risk remains for further losses. The pair should find some support around 0.7760 (1.2890 resistance) ,and that may contain the downside for now. The RBA rate decision has provided the key for near term direction. In the event of increased pressure on the EURO, the pair sees resistance at 0.7925 (1.2620 support), ahead of 0.7985 above (1.2520 support below), albeit that be the unlikely direction in the coming sessions.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
AUD/EURO .7786 0.7760 0.7925 0.7765 - 0.7923
EURO/AUD 1.2844 1.2620 1.2880 1.2620 - 1.2880

Friday 26th April 4:45PM (NZT) - Update
For the most part the AUD has been under pressure from the EURO this week. The pressure was released in yesterday’s offshore session following the ECB decision to cut the cash rate. The inability of the pair to consolidate through .7800 (1.2820) points towards further trading within  the familiar .7800 - .8000 (1.2500 -1.2820) range in the coming sessions. Next week will see Australian news dominate the focus for this pairing. The RBA monetary policy decision on Tuesday, and employment numbers Thursday will offer the primary lead. Consolidation through the support at .7800 (resistance 1.2820) would open the way for further AUD weakness.
The current interbank midrate is:    AUDEUR .7853    EURAUD 1.2733

The interbank range this week has been:    AUDEUR .7764 - .7925    EURAUD 1.2618 - 1.2879
Tuesday 30th April 4:15PM (NZT)
The AUDEUR has had a directionless week drifting between 0.7875 and 0.7925 (1.2620 and 1.2700). This is a long way off the highs of 0.8170 (1.2240 lows) seen earlier this month. Expect more sideways action going into the ECB rate decision on Thursday. This announcement may provide the driving force to find some direction. With many in the market now looking for a cut from the ECB, the failure to provide one will no doubt see a knee jerk reaction to buy EUR and see support 0.7875 (resistance 1.2700) tested. If we do see a cut then current levels will be very attractive, and gradual recovery back up over 0.8000 (below 1.2500) could well be on the cards.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
AUD/EURO .7905 .7800 .8000 .7833 - .7932
EURO/AUD 1.2650 1.2500 1.2820 1.2607 - 1.2766

Friday 26th April 4:45PM (NZT) - Update
It has been an interesting week for this pair with the AUD under some initial pressure following the lower than expected inflation number. This AUD under performance was not to last. Weaker than expected German manufacturing numbers have materially increased speculation of further easing from the ECB next week. The subsequent selling of the EURO has enabled the AUD an easy ride, and expect this to continue into the announcement. This creates renewed opportunity for good value buying of EURO with AUD, if only in the short term.
The current interbank midrate is:    AUDEUR .7908    EURAUD 1.2645

The interbank range this week has been:    AUDEUR .7833 - .7932    EURAUD 1.2607 - 1.2767
Tuesday 23rd April 6:15PM (NZT)
The Australian dollar has become increasingly vulnerable as the global growth picture has become more clouded over the last few weeks. Today’s weaker than expected manufacturing numbers further reiterate this theme. Subsequently the AUD has been pushed through support at .7850 (resistance 1.2740) in the last couple of hours. Consolidation through this level in the coming sessions is key to whether or not we see further underperformance from the AUD. Later on today (Tuesday) we have the focus on the European manufacturing numbers, and these come ahead of the important 1st quarter Australian inflation data tomorrow. Renewed demand for EURO from Japanese pension funds over the last week has also helped support the EURO.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
AUD/EURO .7845 .7650 .7850 .7838 - .7934
EURO/AUD 1.2747 1.2740 1.3070 1.2604 - 1.2758

Friday 19th April 4:02PM (NZT) - Update
As the wider market saw increased risk aversion to start the week the EURO outperformed the Australian dollar. The AUD has remained under pressure as share market sentiment sees continued vulnerability and the chances of further easing from the RBA elevates. Support at .7820 (resistance 1.2790) remains the target for further AUD weakness in the short term. Next week will see the latest European manufacturing and services numbers on Tuesday provide the focus ahead of Wednesday's important Australian inflation report. If the share markets continue to see pressure in the short term, even the current levels could well prove to have offered good value buying of EURO with AUD over time.
The current interbank midrate is:    AUDEUR .7892    EURAUD 1.2671

The interbank range this week has been:    AUDEUR .7855 - .8029    EURAUD 1.2455 - 1.2730
Tuesday 16th April 4:42PM (NZT)
This pair saw increased AUD demand push it through resistance at .8020 (support 1.2470) last week. The AUD enjoyed its elevated levels in the face of weak Australian labour numbers. However, wider market risk aversion turned following weak US retail sales number on Friday and this saw the AUD pressured back through that level. Subsequently, we have seen weak Chinese data further increase risk aversion and couple with the Boston terror event to further unsettle markets. Today's RBA monetary policy meeting minutes did not surprise the market and it seems the pair will consolidate around the recently familiar .7820 - .8020 (1.2470- 1.2790) range this week.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
AUD/EURO .7926 .7820 .8020 .7903 - .8082
EURO/AUD 1.2617 1.2470 1.2790 1.2373 - 1.2653

Friday 12th April 2:08PM (NZT) - Update
This pair started the week with the AUD on its lows and since then the AUD has seen grinding appreciation as the wider market risk appetite has improved. However, yesterday's weak Australian employment numbers have tempered the move and the pair now sits at levels close to the middle of the week’s range. The European finance minister's meetings over the week end will offer further European focus ahead of the RBA monetary policy meeting minutes next week. European economic sentiment and inflation numbers will also be closely watched. Expect further range trading from this pair next week, and this provides on going opportunities to buy good value EURO's with Australian dollars.
The current interbank midrate is:    AUDEUR .8039    EURAUD 1.2439

The interbank range this week has been:    AUDEUR .7974 - .8083    EURAUD 1.2372 - 1.2541
Tuesday 9th April 4:51PM (NZT)
Last week was a very interesting one for this pair. Both central banks left monetary policy unchanged as was expected for the most part. However, it was the comments from ECB Draghi that disappointed investors positioned for an easing lower of the European cash rate at the next meeting in May. The ensuing scramble to buy EURO was coupled with a huge swing in the EURO's favour against the YEN following the BOJ monetary policy announcement (EUR/JPY +500pts higher). These factors have seen the EURO push the AUD down through support at .8000 (resistance 1.2500), as the pair moves into a new range. Ironically, this move has come as the uncertainty remains in Europe and the data in Australia as strong last week. This week sees the economic data focus for this pair based on the Australian employment numbers on Thursday. The tolerance for uncertainty in Europe will likely remain as long as the soft US economic data continues, as it is certainly a contributing factor.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
AUD/EURO .7889 .7820 .8020 .7968 - .8179
EURO/AUD 1.2676 1.2470 1.2790 1.2226 - 1.2550

Friday 5th April 4:28PM (NZT) - Update
It has been an interesting week for this pair. The unchanged RBA announcement and better than expected Australian data saw the AUD outperform for a good portion of the week. However as the .8200 resistance (1.2200 support) approached the AUD started to lose momentum. The BOJ and ECB monetary policy announcements have resulted in a sharp increase in demand for EURO as investors raced to cover sold EURO positions. The sharp move seen in the offshore markets overnight has run its course for the time being. The AUD remains over 5.5% higher than it was in early February, so current levels still offer reasonably good value buying to EURO with AUD. The European focus next week will be provided by the playing out of Italian political issues and the Cypriot support deal. In Australia the important employment numbers on Thursday will be closely watched.
The current interbank midrate is:    AUDEUR .8052    EURAUD 1.2419

The interbank range this week has been:    AUDEUR .8050 - .8179    EURAUD 1.2226 - 1.2422
Tuesday 2th April 4:00PM (NZT)
This pair has traded a relatively contained range over the last week. Of note remains the pressure on the EURO rising from consternation around Cyprus and the Italian leadership issues. This week sees the respective central banks provide a focus, albeit likely that neither will be changing policy settings at this meeting. Elsewhere in Australia Wednesday's trade balance and Thursday's building and retail sales numbers are of note. In Europe the unemployment, inflation, manufacturing and retail sales numbers all provide colour. Expect the current range to continue in the short term, offering further opportunity to buy great value EURO's with Australian dollars.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
AUD/EURO .8121 .8000 .8200 .8104 - .8180
EURO/AUD 1.2314 1.2200 1.2500 1.2225 - 1.2340

Tuesday 26th March 4:15PM (NZT)
The AUD continued to appreciate over the EURO throughout the course of the last week. The current bout of EURO weakness had looked like it had run its course, but ill-conceived comments from EU officials overnight once again increased EURO supply and this sent the EURO to its fresh recent lows. This Cypriot backdrop will continue to provide the lead this week in the absence of any material economic data in either economy. Next week sees a return of a central bank focus with both the ECB and RBA making monetary policy statements.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
AUD/EURO .8123 .8000 .8200 .8010 - .8140
EURO/AUD 1.2311 1.2200 1.2500 1.2285 - 1.2485

Friday 22nd March February 4:15PM (NZT) - Update
The Australian dollar opened the week higher against the EURO and continued that trend throughout the week. Consolidation through resistance at .8050 was driven by yesterday's solid Chinese manufacturing numbers combing with PM Gillard's retention of the Labour party leadership for the upcoming election. Direction from current levels is less clear. The Cyprus situation represents the primary focus in the coming week. How this pans out will certainly dictate direction for this pair in the near term.
The current interbank midrate is:    AUDEUR .8073    EURAUD 1.2386

The interbank range this week has been:    AUDEUR .7988 - .8096    EURAUD 1.2352 - 1.2519
Tuesday 19th March 3:58PM (NZT)
The Australian dollar has seen resurgent demand against the EURO over the last week. The initial wave of demand came following the strong employment numbers. The weekend's news from Cyprus has seen the EURO under renewed pressure and this has seen the pair push up towards AUD resistance at .8050 (EURO support 1.2425). Today's RBA monetary policy meeting minutes solidifies the RBA's more neutral stance on monetary policy. This will provide some latent demand for AUD in the short term at least. In Europe the attention will come from the various German sentiment numbers, and the latest manufacturing and services data.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
AUD/EURO .8015 .7850 .8050 .7890 - .8040
EURO/AUD 1.2477 1.2425 1.2740 1.2438 - 1.2674

Friday 15th March February 4:15PM (NZT) - Update
The AUD has outperformed the EURO this week. Initially the appreciation was grinding in nature, but demand increased more sharply follow the bonanza Australian employment numbers. Direction in the short term will be based around the .8000 (1.2500) level. If the pair sees AUD appreciation contained by this level in the coming sessions, then the EURO maybe able to take back some of its recently lost ground. Important German sentiment numbers are joined by European manufacturing and services data to provide the European focus next week. In Australia the release of the latest RBA minutes will offer the primary domestic focus. Current levels offer good value buying of EURO with AUD.
The current interbank midrate is:    AUDEUR .7967    EURAUD 1.2552

The interbank range this week has been:    AUDEUR .7855 - .8012    EURAUD 1.2481 - 1.2731
Monday 11th March 4:01PM (NZT)
Last week saw this pair continue to trade within the range it has established over the last month. The AUD saw solid demand in the first half of the week following the stellar retail sales number in Australia. After stalling at the .7900 resistance (1.2660 support), the ECB monetary policy statement curbed further AUD out performance. This week will see most of the lead come from external factors ahead of Thursday's important Australian employment report. If European debt markets see pressure re-emerge to push interest rates higher for peripheral members, the AUD will likely test the resistance once again.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
AUD/EURO .7865 .7700 .7900 .7777 - .7898
EURO/AUD 1.2715 1.2660 1.2990 1.2661 - 1.2858

Friday 8th March February 4:00PM (NZT) - Update
It has been an interesting week for this pair. The AUD started the week under some pressure from the EURO. This pressure proved temporary, as the improved wider market sentiment coupled with strong retail sales numbers in Australia. This AUD appreciation was again capped at the resistance at .7900 (1.2660 support). Following the ECB monetary policy statement overnight the demand for the EURO has returned and pushed the pair back to more comfortable levels, close to where it started the week. Apart from Italian politics and the EU summit next week, the Australian employment numbers on Thursday now provide a focus for this pair. Expect the established range to contain the price action in the coming sessions.
The current interbank midrate is:    AUDEUR .7828    EURAUD 1.2775

The interbank range this week has been:    AUDEUR .7777 - .7898    EURAUD 1.2661 - 1.2858

Tuesday 5th March 4:53PM (NZT)
This pair has traded a contained range throughout the course of the last week. It does remain at elevated levels in favour of the AUD, and may remain so ahead of some kind of resolution of the Italian political situation. This week sees a central bank focus with both the ECB and RBA due to announce monetary policy. Expect no change from either, but the accompanying statements will be closely monitored. Wednesday's release of the 4th quarter Australian GDP number will also be of primary focus. Current levels still offer good value buying of EURO with AUD.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
AUD/EURO .7828 .7700 .7900 .7773 -.7872

Friday 1st March February 4:33PM (NZT) - Update
Following the inconclusive Italian election result the EURO saw a period of intense pressure. This saw the AUD push to the highs for the week, albeit the pair was unable to consolidate with the AUD at the extreme levels. The coming week will prove interesting with the respective central banks to make monetary policy statements. Any change would be a surprise, but the accompanying statements will be closely monitored. Add to the mix the 4th quarter Australian GDP number on Wednesday and there is ample focus for this pair. Any material move towards an easing of monetary policy by the ECB would likely see renewed pressure on the EURO.
The current interbank midrate is:    AUDEUR .7822    EURAUD 1.2884

The interbank range this week has been:    AUDEUR .7749 - .7877    EURAUD 1.2695 - 1.2905
Tuesday 26th February 3:53PM (NZT)
The AUD saw grinding appreciation against the EURO throughout much of last week. The RBA rhetoric coupled itself with increasing uncertainty around the Italian elections to drive the move. The inconclusive election result this morning drove the pair steeply in the AUD’s favour and the pair has managed to consolidate through the .7800 (1.2820) EURO support level. This week will likely see the volatility remain in place as the frailties of the Italian political system are likely to be exposed. Expect the Australian private capital expenditure numbers, alongside the European unemployment number and inflation numbers to provide the “non Italian” focus for the week. Albeit, they should be of limited impact.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
AUD/EURO .7860 .7700 .7900 .7692 - .7877
EURO/AUD 1.2722 1.2660 1.2990 1.2695 - 1.3000

Friday 22nd February 4:59PM- Update
This pair had traded a relatively contained range this week, until the offshore sessions overnight. The weak European manufacturing numbers have seen the pair push up to the AUD resistance level at .7800 (1.2420 EURO support). This level remains the key to direction in the short term, as it has contained the pair over the last four weeks. With the Italian elections progressing throughout the weekend, expect the EURO to remain vulnerable in the short term. Next week sees Europe again with its host of data due for release. Thursday's capital expenditure numbers provide the focus in Australia.
The current interbank midrate is:    AUDEUR .7799    EURAUD 1.2822

The interbank range this week has been:    AUDEUR .7692 - .7803    EURAUD 1.2815 - 1.3000
Tuesday 19th February 3:50PM (NZT)
This pair remains contained by its recent familiar range, albeit towards the upper AUD end of it. Last week saw the EURO vulnerability come back to the fore, as the economic realities playing out in Europe came back into focus via the 4th quarter GDP number. Today's RBA meeting minutes were mostly unsurprising, but the market may feel the RBA are a little less committed towards further easing to the cash rate then it has previously had priced. Focus from here shifts to Europe and the various top tier German sentiment numbers, as well as European wide manufacturing and services data. If the AUD sees a little further demand in the coming sessions, it will again hit levels offering very good value buying of EUR.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
AUD/EURO .7735 .7600 .7800 .7615 - .7771
EURO/AUD 1.2928 1.2820 1.3160 1.2868 - 1.3132

Friday 15th February 4:10PM- Update
The AUD initially saw pressure from the EURO this week. This came as better than expected industrial production numbers were release in Europe. However this pressure was not to last. The lower than expected 4th quarter growth numbers in Europe really undermined the EURO. This coupled with a jump in Australian consumer sentiment eased the way for considerable Australian dollar out performance. Interestingly, the pair remains in somewhat familiar ground, and resistance at the .7800 level (support 1.2820), has managed to curb further AUD out performance so far. Next week sees the RBA meetings minutes offer focus in Australia, while manufacturing, services and German sentiment numbers provide the lead in Europe.
The current interbank midrate is: AUDEUR .7752 EURAUD 1.2899
 
The interbank range this week has been: AUDEUR .7615 - .7771 EURAUD 1.3132 - 1.2868

Tuesday 12th February 5:50PM (NZT)
This pair continues to consolidate in the range it has seen for the last week or so. Both currencies have seen periods of under performance to maintain the relatively contained range. With both economies producing soft economic numbers, there remains a possibility of further range trading in the short term at least. The focus for this week coming will come from Europe in the absence of any material Australian economic news. This focus is provided by industrial production, preliminary GDP numbers and the monthly bulletin from the ECB.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
AUD/EURO .6241 .7600 .7800 .7605 - .7734
EURO/AUD 1.6023 1.2820 1.3160 1.2930 - 1.3149

Friday 8th February 4:10PM- Update
The Euro gave up ground early on this week and from the its lows it saw grinding appreciation to push back to around the .7600 (1.3160) level last night. This move was aided by the weaker than expected Australian employment numbers and the RBA leaving open the possibility of further easing in the coming months. However, last night  ECB President Draghi was forced to comment on the high value of the EURO and this prompted a dramatic drop in demand. Expect these discussions to continue in the coming sessions, as the economic realities of an overvalued currency are assed. Certainly the easy ground for the EURO has been made, and further appreciation from the current levels will be harder fought. Next week will see the majority of the focus come from the European economy in the absence of top tier Australian economic news. Expect the industrial production numbers on Wednesday, and GDP data on Thursday to be of primary focus. Direction from the current levels is not clear, but a consolidation of a break of the .7600 (1.3160) would open up the way for further EURO appreciation in the short term atleast.
 
The current interbank midrate is:                                                  AUDEUR .7670               EURAUD 1.3038 
                                                                                         
The interbank range so far this week to date has been:       AUDEUR .7588 - .7740       EURAUD 1.2920- 1.3179
Tuesday 5th February 6:10PM (NZT)
It has been an interesting week for this pairing. The AUD has seen period of intense pressure from the EURO, but the AUD has bounced from the lows as the markets reversed some of their recent positive sentiment in the last couple of sessions. Today’s RBA statement has left the door open for further easing’s and this has seen the pressure come back on the AUD following its release. The remainder of the week sees the focus on the Australian economy continue. Tomorrow sees retail sales numbers released, Thursday the employment figures and finally on Friday the quarterly Monetary Policy Statement from the RBA. In Europe the focus will remain intense. The peripheral member debt markets will be closely watched, but real focus will be on the ECB monetary policy statement on Thursday. Given the recent strength of the EURO, it will be interesting to see how they react to that, given it will hamper recovery efforts.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
AUD/EURO .7712 .7600 .7800 .7590 - .7782
EURO/AUD 1.2967 1.2820 1.3160 1.2850 - 1.3175

Friday 1st February 11:55AM (NZT)
The AUD has continued to give up ground to the resurgent EURO, albeit at a slowing pace when compared to last week. There have been periods of heavy volume for this pair, and its seems likely that there is further room to the EURO to outperform on this move. The performance of European periphery debt markets provide the lead for this pair. When sentiment is good in these markets, the EURO sees increased demand. Next week sees the focus return to the respective central banks and their monetary policy decisions. With the ECB widely expected to leave policy unchanged, the primary focus will be on the RBA. I expect the RBA to leave the cash rate at 3.00% , but at this stage the market has priced in a reasonable chance of movement lower at this meeting. Australian employment and retail sales figures provide further Australian focus to round out next week.
 
The current interbank midrate is:                                                  AUDEUR  .7678                  EURAUD 1.3024 
                                                                                         
The interbank range so far this week to date has been:       AUDEUR .7655 - .7822     EURAUD 1.2784 – 1.3063
Tuesday 29th January 4:55PM (NZT)
The EURO has made solid gains against the AUD over the last week. The push down through support at .7850 (resistance 1.2740) has opened up the way for investigations higher for the EURO. The dramatic reduction in concerns of the structural health of the Euro-zone has been the primary driver for the start of what could be a significant move. The .7680 (1.3020) represents the next significant AUD support levels in the short term. With little in the way of Australian economic news this week the focus will remain primarily in Europe with a flora of news due from the engine room economy  of Germany. The Australian focus will return next week with the prospect of the RBA monetary policy meeting on the 5th.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
AUD/EURO .7758 .7680 .7880 .7723 - .7948
EURO/AUD 1.2889 1.2690 1.3020 1.2582 - 1.2948

Friday 25th January 2:39PM (NZT)
The pair traded a relatively tight range initially this week. But the lower than expected Australian inflation result out paid to that theme, and the AUD saw considerable pressure in the sessions following that release. Aiding the EURO has been continued improvement in the sentiment in Europe. This theme may well continue in the short term at least. The RBA monetary policy meeting on the 5th February holds the key to the Australian side of the equation, and I do not think they will cut the cash rate at that meeting. So long as sentiment in Europe continues improve, or consolidates at the current improved levels at the least, the EURO should maintain its hard fought ground. A consolidated break of the .7800 1.2820 level would see the EURO make further gains and move further back towards more historically average levels against the AUD.
 
The current interbank midrate is:                                                  AUDEUR .7820                          EURAUD 1.2788
                                                                                         
The interbank range so far this week to date has been:       AUDEUR .7811 - .7948           EURAUD 1.2582 – 1.2802
Tuesday 22nd January 3:55PM (NZT)
This pair saw indecisive price action last week and starts this week at very similar levels to last week. The AUD initially took back some of its recently lost ground, but this move proved unsustainable, especially once the NZ inflation numbers were released. Direction from current levels remains unclear, but probably will be contingent on the outcome from Wednesday’s Australian inflation numbers. European news is dominated by German data this week. Economic sentiment, manufacturing and business climate numbers provide the focus. ECB head Mario Draghi will also speak late today (Tuesday), and as usual, his words will be closely monitored. If he further intimates a limited chance of a lower European cash rate, then the EURO demand will likely increase.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
AUD/EURO .7895 .7800 .8000 .7855 - .7959
EURO/AUD 1.2665 1.2500 1.2820 1.2564 - 1.2731

Tuesday 15th January 4:55PM (NZT)
It has been a dramatic couple of weeks for this pair. Initially the AUD saw strong demand and this drove appreciation by over 2% in just over a week. However, a dramatic turnaround came in the form of the ECB monetary policy meeting last week. The indications are that we are unlikely to see further policy adjustment from the ECB in the short term at least. This drove resurgent demand for the EURO and the pressure remains on the AUD ahead of the Australian employment numbers on Thursday. In Europe the inflation number  tomorrow provides a focus, as well as French and Spanish debt auctions to finish the week.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
AUD/EURO .7891 .7800 .8000 .7874 - .8088
EURO/AUD 1.2673 1.2500 1.2820 1.2364 - 1.2700

Friday 21st December 2012 5:10PM (NZT)
The AUD saw some pressure from the resurgent EURO early this week. However the momentum from the EURO has waned in the last couple of sessions and the AUD has bounced the pairing off its lows. The price action will likely remain volatile for the next couple of weeks as the holiday season conditions grip the market. It will be an interesting start to 2013 for this pair. If the Australian economic data starts to weaken, the pair could well see a move back to more historically average levels. Much will rest of the orderly  request for funding that should be forth coming from Spain in the early part of next year.
 
The current interbank midrate is:                                                  AUDEUR .7915                      EURAUD 1.2634 
                                                                                         
The interbank range so far this week to date has been:       AUDEUR .7889 - .8057       EURAUD 1.2412 – 1.2676
Tuesday 18th December 2012 5:10PM (NZT)
The AUD came under pressure from the EURO last week as the pair reversed the moves from the previous week. The .7950 (1.2580) remains the initial target for further EUR appreciation in the short term. It seems like the wider market will provide the lead this week as the RBA minutes were of limited impact to the price action, and tonight’s German business sentiment numbers round out the economic data focus in Europe for the remainder of the year. Current levels are very close to where the pair started 2012. Even given the AUD highs of 2012, current level still offer good value buying if EURO with AUD from a historical perspective.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
AUD/EURO .8002 .7950 .8150 .8002 - .8101
EURO/AUD 1.2499 1.2270 1.2580 1.2340 - 1.2497

Tuesday 11th December 2012 3:45PM (NZT)
The Australian dollar made some good gains against the EURO last week. The expected cash rate reduction in Australia was countered by ECB discussions on a lower European cash rate in the coming months. The Australian employment numbers also delivered some solid AUD demand. The Italian political uncertainty that came over the weekend has seen risk aversion increase, and this ironically has seen the EURO take back a little of last week’s lost ground. German business sentiment later today, and the European manufacturing numbers Thursday, and inflation on Friday provide the data focus for the week. Any announcement from current PM Monti that he will run in the soon to be announced elections, would be positive for risk appetite.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
AUD/EURO .8092 .7950 .8150 .7985 - .8144
EURO/AUD 1.2358 1.2270 1.2580 1.2279 - 1.2523

Monday 3rd December 2012 4:52PM (NZT)
The EURO pushed the AUD down through crucial support levels following the capital expenditure numbers last week. This AUD fall in demand has continued today following the weaker than expected Australian retail sales numbers. With the RBA to announce monetary policy tomorrow and the ECB on Thursday, the focus will remain high all week. Add to this the slurry of economic data in both economies, and we can expect some volatile price action at times. The RBA are expected to ease the cash rate to 3.00%, and the ECB are likely to wait until next year for further policy accommodation. Australian 3rd quarter GDP and employment numbers on Wednesday and Thursday respectively, will provide secondary but still elevated focus. With current AUD levels at the lowest in over six weeks, over time these may well prove to have offered reasonable value buying of EURO.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
AUD/EURO .7985 .7950 .8150 .7984 .8104
EURO/AUD 1.2523 1.2270 1.2580 1.2340 - 1.2525

Tuesday 27th November 2012 4:44 PM (NZT)
The AUD has seen pressure from the EURO throughout the course of the last week. Ironically, today’s announcement of the extension of Greek bailout funds has seen the AUD bounce from the crucial support level of .8050 (resistance 1.2420). Direction for the remainder of the week will likely come from the wider markets risk appetite in the absence of top tier economic data due in either economy. Next week sees a myriad of economic data to digest. In Australia we get retail sales, building approvals, GDP and employment. Add to this Thursday’s RBA monetary policy announcement (with possibility of a .25% cut to the cash rate) and there is plenty of room for AUD movement. The ECB also have a monetary policy announcement on Thursday, and this will be closely watched, albeit no change expected at this meeting.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
AUD/EURO .8073 .8050 .8250 .8042 - .8150
EURO/AUD 1.2387 1.2120 1.2425 1.2270 - 1.2435

Tuesday 20th November 2012 3:56 PM (NZT)
This pair saw periods of rapid movement last week. After some initial appreciation the AUD saw a sustained period of pressure as the risk aversion increased throughout the belly of the week. The turnaround on Friday was right on suspected support levels and the AUD has put in a grinding out performance since then. Today’s RBA monetary policy meeting minutes are unsurprising. They remained poised to cut the cash rate to 3.00% is deemed “appropriate” and it seems increasingly likely that the state of the mining sector will provide much of the lead on this. Current levels look to be very mid range, and it the EU deliberations on Greece will look to dominate the focus for the remainder of the week.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
AUD/EURO .8137 .8050 .8250 .8060 - .8221
EURO/AUD 1.2289 1.2120 1.2425 1.2164 - 1.2407

Tuesday 13th November 2012 4:55 PM (NZT)
The Australian dollar had a strong week against the EUR last week. Underpinning demand was the decision from the RBA to leave the Australian cash rate unchanged at 3.25%. Positive news around Greece helped the wider market sentiment at times, and this combined with reasonable Chinese numbers further boosted demand for the AUD. This week the focus comes from Europe  with business sentiment, inflation, GDP and current account numbers. The pairing is fast approaching significant resistance at .8250 (support 1.2120) and this will present the target for further appreciation. Current levels will likely look to have offered good value buying of EURO with AUD over time. Wider market issues of the US fiscal situation should mean further appreciation for the AUD should be harder fought in the coming weeks.
  Current Level Support Resistance Last week's range
AUD/EURO .8205 .8050 .8250 .8054 - .8213
EURO/AUD 1.2188 1.2120 1.2425 1.2176 -1.2416

Entries previous to this have been deleted as there are time sensitive and lose value as time progresses. Please refer to our charts page for price action on a historical basis. The chart page can be seen here : http://www.directfx.co.nz/CurrencyChart.html